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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (6,953)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: In 2016, Kazakhstan's GDP growth continued to slow and real wages declined further, negatively affecting poverty rates. The authorities reacted by extending additional spending measures and easing monetary conditions. In the medium term, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate is projected to pick up slowly, but it will remain below pre-2014 levels (when the oil price shock hit the economy). In the longer term, Kazakhstan's desire for an economic transformation to more sustainable and inclusive growth will require completing the macroeconomic adjustment, addressing the legacy of SOEs and financial sector issues, and fostering development of a more dynamic, export-oriented and productive private sector
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Martirosova, Diana The Many Faces of Deprivation: A Multidimensional Approach to Poverty in Armenia
    Abstract: This note describes a new measure of multidimensional poverty developed for Armenia. In 2013, the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia and the World Bank began work on a national measure of multidimensional poverty to supplement the consumption poverty indicator. This measure, which was identified through consultations with many stakeholders in Armenia, reflects deprivations specific to Armenia in the areas of education, health, labor, housing conditions, and basic needs. The approach offers insights into the complexity, depth, and persistence of poverty in the country; tailoring it specifically to the country context enhances its relevance for policy. This note uses the new measure to describe national trends and regional patterns
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Tobacco taxes are deemed regressive as poorest families tend to allocate larger shares of their budget to purchase tobacco. However, as taxes also discourage tobacco use, some of the most adverse effects, including higher medical expenses, lower life expectancy at birth, added years of disability among smokers, and reductions in the quality of life, among other, will be reduced. This paper describes and simulates the effects of the tobacco tax on incomes in Chile assuming three different price-elasticity scenarios for different income deciles of the population. Results show that although price increase for tobacco through higher taxes generates negative income variations across all groups in a population, under a more comprehensive scenario that includes benefits through lower medical expenses and an increase in working years, the results invert, and the overall monetary effect of the taxation policy becomes positive. Moreover, the reduction in medical expenses seems to be the main driver of the increase in net incomes because of the reduction in tobacco-related problems that require expensive treatments. Lastly, as the distributional effects of tobacco taxes are directly related to the long-term price elasticities of tobacco consumption, it will be advisable a coordination between taxation and behavioral change policies across income groups
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Public Sector Study
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: The ability to prove one's identity is a cornerstone of participation in modern life, yet over 1.5 billion people lack proof of legal identity. As a first step in assisting its client countries to close this identity gap, the World Bank Group's ID4D initiative conducts Identity Management Systems Analyses (IMSAs) to evaluate countries' identity ecosystems and facilitate collaboration with governments for future work. To date, analyses have been conducted in 17 African countries, including Botswana, Chad, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Guinea, Lenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Zambia
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: The Palestinian people face an increasingly uncertain political environment, and an economy that is failing to generate the jobs and incomes that are needed to improve living standards. Restrictions on trade and the access to resources, along with a decade long blockade of Gaza have led to a continuing decline in the productive base of the economy - with the share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in manufacturing halved in the last twenty-five years. Unemployment is now approaching 30 percent on average, with youth unemployment in Gaza twice as high. Although 2016 witnessed an improvement from the economic recession of 2014 -driven by a surge in reconstruction activity in Gaza - this is not sustainable nor sufficient to raise per capita incomes of the Palestinians. Looking forward GDP growth is expected to hover around 3.3 percent leading to a near stagnation in per capita income. Further increases in unemployment are also expected
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464811036 , 9781464810930
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Urban Development
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    DDC: 305.569095
    Abstract: Urbanization in East Asia and the Pacific has created enormous opportunity for many. Yet the rapid growth of cities can also create challenges as national and local governments try to keep up with the needs of their growing populations. Among these challenges is a lack of affordable housing, resulting in increasing slums, deficits in basic service provision, and widening inequality for urban dwellers. This study aims to better understand urban poverty and inequality in East Asian cities, recognizing that many countries of the region, particularly those of middle-income status, are at a critical juncture in their urbanization and growth process where potential social divisions in cities could harm prospects for future poverty reduction. The study uses a multidimensional approach to understand urban poverty and inclusion and draws on examples of programs and policies that have been successfully implemented in the East Asia region to develop a set of guiding principles for policy makers
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien Charting the Diffusion of Power Sector Reforms across the Developing World
    Abstract: Some 25 years have elapsed since international financial institutions espoused a package of power sector reform measures that became known as the Washington Consensus. This package encompassed the establishment of autonomous regulatory entities, the vertical and horizontal unbundling of integrated national monopoly utilities, private sector participation in generation and distribution, and eventually the introduction of competition into power generation and even retail services. Exploiting a unique new data set on the timing and scope of power sector reforms adopted by 88 countries across the developing world over 25 years, this paper seeks to improve understanding of the uptake, diffusion, packaging, and sequencing of power sector reforms, and the extent to which they were affected by the economic and political characteristics of the countries concerned. The analysis focuses on describing the patterns of reform without judging their desirability or evaluating their impact. The paper finds that following rapid diffusion during 1995-2005, the spread of power sector reforms slowed significantly in 2005-15. Only a small minority of developing countries fully implemented the reform model as originally conceived. For the majority, reforms were only selectively adopted according to ease of implementation, often stagnated at an intermediate stage, and were sometimes packaged and sequenced in ways unrelated to the original logic. Country characteristics such as geography, income group, power system size, and political economy all had a significant influence on the uptake of reform. Moreover, a significant number of countries experienced reversals of private sector participation, or were unable to follow through with reform plans that were officially announced. Overall, power sector reform in the developing world lags far behind what was achieved in the developed world during the same time period. Yet, even in the developed world, the full package of reforms does not seem to have been universally adopted
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ibarra, Gabriel Lara Learning the Impact of Financial Education When Take-Up Is Low
    Abstract: Financial education programs are increasingly offered by governments, nonprofits, and financial institutions. However, voluntary participation rates in such programs are often very low, posing a severe challenge for randomized experiments attempting to measure their impact. This study uses a large experiment on more than 100,000 credit card clients in Mexico. The study shows how the richness of financial data allows combining nonexperimental methods with the experiment to yield credible measures of impact, even with take-up rates below 1 percent. The findings show that a financial education workshop and personalized coaching result in a higher likelihood of paying credit cards on time, and of making more than the minimum payment, but do not reduce spending, resulting in higher profitability for the bank
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lucchetti, Leonardo Who Escaped Poverty and Who Was Left Behind? A Non-Parametric Approach to Explore Welfare Dynamics Using Cross-Sections
    Abstract: This paper proposes a non-parametric adaptation of a recently developed parametric technique to produce point estimates of intra-generational economic mobility in the absence of panel data sets that follow individuals over time. The method predicts past individual income or consumption using time-invariant observable characteristics, which allows the estimation of mobility into and out of poverty, as well as household-level income or consumption growth, from cross-sectional data. The paper validates this method by sampling repeated cross-sections out of actual panel data sets from three countries in the Latin America region and comparing the technique with mobility from panels. Overall, the method performs well in the three settings; with few exceptions, all estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence intervals of the panel mobility. The quality of the estimates does not depend in general on the sophistication level of the underlying welfare model's specifications. The results are encouraging even for those specifications that include few time-invariant variables as regressors
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Jeong, Hyeok Korea's Growth Experience and Long-Term Growth Model
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the Republic of Korea's rapid and sustained growth experience for the past six decades from the perspective of the neoclassical growth model (the workhorse model of the World Bank's Long Term Growth Model (LTGM) project). Overall, the sources of Korea's growth were balanced among labor market and demographic factors, capital investment, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth. However, the main engine of growth evolved sequentially, e.g., labor and human capital factors in the 1960s, capital deepening in the 1970s, and then productivity growth for the following periods. The major sources of sustained growth over six decades were human capital accumulation and productivity growth rather than labor or capital investment. A counterfactual calibration of the model explains Korea's actual growth experience well, and shows why gaps between the model's predictions and the data arise. This illustrates that an appropriate calibration of a simple neoclassical growth model provides useful lessons and tools for policy makers in developing countries in designing their national development strategies
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David J Small Firm Death in Developing Countries
    Abstract: Small firms are an important source of income for the poor in developing countries, and the target of many interventions designed to help them grow. But there is no systematic information on the failure or death of such firms. The paper puts together 16 panel surveys from 12 different developing countries to develop stylized facts from over 14,000 firms on how much firm death there is; on which types of these firms are most likely to die; and on why they die, paying careful attention to issues of measurement and attrition. The authors find small firms die at an average rate of 8.3 percent per year over the first five years of following them, so that half of all firms observed to be operating at a given point in time are dead within 6 years. Death rates are higher for small firms in richer countries, younger firms, retail firms, less productive and less profitable firms, and those whose owners are female and not middle-aged. The paper proposes three theories of why small firms die: firm competition and firm shocks, occupational choice, and non-separability from the household. It finds the cause of firm death to be heterogeneous, with different subgroups of firms more likely to die for reasons consistent with each of these theories
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Shrestha, Maheshwor The Impact of Large-Scale Migration on Poverty, Expenditures, and Labor Market Outcomes in Nepal
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of migration on poverty, expenditures, and labor market outcomes in Nepal. Between 2001 and 2011, the share of male working age population abroad more than doubled, mostly due to young men leaving to work in Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries. The paper studies the impact using instrumental variables as well as difference-in-difference methods. The findings show that increases in migration to Gulf-Malaysia explain 40 percent of the decline in poverty between 2001 and 2011. The estimates of the marginal propensity of consumption show that a
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Akogun, Oladele Productivity and Health: Alternative Productivity Estimates Using Physical Activity
    Abstract: This paper investigates an alternative proxy for individual worker productivity in physical work settings: a direct measure of physical activity using an accelerometer. First, the paper compares worker labor outcomes, such as labor supply and daily productivity obtained from firm personnel data, with physical activity; they are strongly related. Second, the paper investigates the effect of a health intervention on physical activity, using a temporally randomized offer of malaria testing and treatment. Workers who are offered this program reallocate time from lower intensity activities in favor of higher intensity activities when they work
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Packard, Truman G Labor Policy and Digital Technology Use: Indicative Evidence from Cross-Country Correlations
    Abstract: This paper exploits variation in country-level indicators drawn from published data to analyze the relationship between labor regulation and the use of digital technology. The analysis shows a statistically and economically significant association between digital technology use by firms and a country's statutory minimum wage and employment protection regulations. The results are robust to the inclusion of controls for level of development, economic stability, available infrastructure, and trade openness. To ensure the broadest country coverage, the paper develops new indexes of employment protection, using the World Bank's Doing Business indicators, which allow several aspects of labor market regulation-such as restrictions on hours and hiring, dismissal procedures, and severance costs-to be analyzed separately
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Liu, Lili Municipal Pooled Financing of Infrastructure in the United States: Experience and Lessons
    Abstract: Despite a world awash with liquidity, large infrastructure supply gaps exist across developing and emerging markets. Infrastructure has been largely decentralized to subnational governments in many countries, and many policymakers are keenly interested in developing subnational bond markets to give subnational governments access to private financing for infrastructure. Despite this, the transaction costs of bond issuance are still prohibitive for many subnational governments to access financing. Pooled financing, through regional infrastructure funds, municipal funds, or bond banks, has become a sought-after solution for helping subnational governments access private financing for infrastructure. In the United States, municipal bond banks that were established since the 1970s have become a cost-effective and stable model for expanding subnational financing for many small municipalities, while maintaining strong credit ratings with virtually no defaults from sub-borrowers. The municipal bond banks have been successful in lowering financing costs for many small, unrated local governments, with loan sizes as low as less than
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ruta, Michele Preferential Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains: Theory, Evidence, and Open Questions
    Abstract: Preferential trade agreements today are more numerous and deeper than they were a quarter century ago. Do deep agreements promote countries' integration into global value chains? What are the economic mechanisms? How do countries choose their trade agreement partners? Would the undoing of deep agreements disrupt global value chains? What is the outlook for trade agreements and global value chains going forward? This paper reviews the small but growing literature on the role of deep agreements as the institutional underpinnings of global value chains. It discusses the available evidence and theoretical arguments, providing directions for future research in this area
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Khan, Tehmina S Investigating the Transmission Channels behind Dutch Disease Effects: Lessons from Mongolia Using a CGE Model
    Abstract: This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations (MAMS) calibrated to Mongolia to investigate how the development of major mining projects leads to Dutch disease. The simulations suggest that the process is complex, with the relative strength of the different spending and resource movement channels determined by structural features of the economy, such as factor input needs of the mining sector and substitution elasticities, and how mineral windfalls are eventually spent. In Mongolia, mining sector demand for domestic factor inputs explains two-thirds of the appreciation of the real exchange rate, with demand for labor, aquasi-fixed factor, the most potent channel for transmitting Dutch disease. The simulations also suggest that public policies may only play a limited role in limiting Dutch disease, even if growing fiscal revenues are channeled toward productivity-enhancing public investment rather than public consumption or lower taxes. This finding suggests that policy makers face real trade-offs, namely that, as an equilibrium response, Dutch disease is unavoidable and at odds with an export-led, manufacturing-oriented development strategy unless resources are left in the ground (or mining earnings are saved abroad). If the objective is to limit Dutch disease, then the simulations point to policies that minimize the usage of domestic inputs by the mining sector, or that accommodate the growing demand for key inputs such as labor e.g. through immigration. Regarding spending, policy makers should channel mining revenues toward public investment, to expand the economy's long-run supply potential. Where large direct income flows from the mining sector to households are important, monetary policy may be more useful than fiscal policy in constraining private spending
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Barrera-Osorio, Felipe Delivering Education to the Underserved through a Public-Private Partnership Program in Pakistan
    Abstract: This study experimentally evaluates the short-term impacts of public per-student subsidies to partnering local entrepreneurs to establish and operate tuition-free, coeducational, private primary schools in educationally underserved villages in Sindh province, Pakistan. Two subsidy structures were tested, one in which the subsidy amount did not differ by student gender, and the other in which the subsidy amount was higher for female students. The program administrator introduced the latter structure with the aim of correcting for the gender disparity in school enrollment in the general program setting. The program increased school enrollment by 30 percentage points in treated villages, for boys and girls. It increased test scores by 0.63 standard deviations in treated villages. The gender-differentiated subsidy structure did not have larger impacts on girls' enrollment or test scores than the gender-uniform one. Program schools proved more effective in raising test scores than government schools located near the villages, with program-school students scoring 0.16 standard deviations higher, despite coming from more socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. Estimations of the demand for schooling and education production suggest nearly efficient choices on school inputs by the program administrator and partnering entrepreneurs
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hoque, Mohammad Mainul Longevity and Lifetime Education: Global Evidence from 919 Surveys
    Abstract: Data from 919 household surveys conducted between 1960 and 2012, spanning 147 economies, are used to evaluate the relationship between rising life expectancy at birth and lifetime years of schooling for successive birth cohorts between 1905 and 1988. The study finds significant positive effects of increased life expectancy at birth on lifetime completed years of schooling in 95 percent of the surveys, with significant negative effects found in only 2.3 percent. Rising life expectancy at birth for a birth cohort has intergenerational benefits in that the cohort's children's schooling also increases. Rising life expectancy at birth since 1905 can explain 70 percent of the rising completed years of schooling for those birth cohorts
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Khemani, Stuti Political Economy of Reform
    Abstract: This paper reviews the literature relevant to understanding political constraints to economic reforms. Reform refers to changes in government policies or institutional rules because status quo policies and institutions are not working well to achieve the goals of economic well-being and development. Further, reforms refer to the alternative policies and institutions that are available that would most likely perform better than the status quo. The main question examined in the political economy of reform literature has been why reforms are not undertaken when they are needed for the good of society. The succinct answer from the first generation of research is that conflict of interest between organized socio-political groups is responsible for some groups being able to stall reforms so that they can extract greater private rents from status quo policies. The next generation of research is tackling a more fundamental question: why does conflict of interest persist; or, why do some interest groups exert influence against reforms if there are indeed large gains to be had for society? These are questions about norms and preferences in society for public goods. The next step is to examine where norms and preferences for public goods come from, and which institutional arrangements are more conducive to solve the public goods problem of pursuing reforms. After reviewing the available and future directions for research, the paper concludes with what all of this means for policy makers who are interested in understanding the factors behind successful reforms
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Making It Easier to Apply for a Bank Account: A Study of the Indian Market
    Abstract: This paper draws on new individual-level survey data from India to study the costs of opening an account and the efficiency of the account application process. The data show a recent increase in account ownership, especially by women and poor adults. The data also suggest that India's flagship financial inclusion program, the Jan Dhan Yojana scheme, has made it easier to get an account, through lower costs and greater ease of applying. Yet despite the scheme's initial successes, people who wish to apply for an account continue to incur a range of costs. The survey results suggest several recommendations that could improve the account application process and increase ownership and usage of accounts
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dappe, Matias Herrera How Does Port Efficiency Affect Maritime Transport Costs and Trade? Evidence from Indian and Western Pacific Ocean Countries
    Abstract: Would improvements in port performance increase trade in countries on the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans? Previous studies attempted to answer this question using ad hoc measures of port efficiency that do not control for the actual use of port assets or measures that can be very noisy. To avoid these problems, this paper builds a measure of economic efficiency based on the use of port inputs to deliver port output. Using data envelop analysis, it ranks countries on the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans in terms of their port efficiency, and assesses the effect of increased efficiency. It finds that becoming as efficient as the country with the most efficient port sector would reduce their average maritime transport costs by up to 14 percent and increase their exports by up to 2.2 percent
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bruns, Barbara Through the Looking Glass: Can Classroom Observation and Coaching Improve Teacher Performance in Brazil?
    Abstract: This study conducted a randomized evaluation of a program in the Brazilian state of Ceara. The program was designed to improve teachers' effectiveness by increasing their professional interaction and sharing of classroom practice. In 175 of 350 secondary schools, teachers were provided with benchmarked feedback from classroom observations and access to expert coaching. Schools' uptake of the coaching program was high (85 percent). Over a single school year, the program increased teachers' time on instruction and student engagement and produced statistically significant gains in student learning on the Ceara state assessment and the national secondary school exit exam. Controlling for individual students' prior-year learning outcomes, schools exposed to the program had 0.05-0.09 standard deviation higher performance on the state test and 0.04-0.06 standard deviation higher scores on the national test. Implementation fidelity strongly boosted program impacts. In the 49 schools where the pedagogical coordinators achieved the highest certification at the end of the program, student scores were 0.13-0.23 standard deviation higher on the state test and 0.13-0.17 standard deviation higher on the national test. Coaching delivered by Skype kept the costs of the program low
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McCarthy, Nancy Shelter from the Storm? Household-Level Impacts of, and Responses to, the 2015 Floods in Malawi
    Abstract: As extreme weather events intensify due to climate change, it becomes ever more critical to understand how vulnerable households are to these events and the mechanisms households can rely on to minimize losses effectively. This paper analyzes the impacts of the floods that occurred during the 2014/15 growing season in Malawi, using a two-period panel data set. The results show that while yields were dramatically lower for households severely affected by the floods, drops in food consumption expenditures and calories per capita were less dramatic. However, dietary quality, as captured by the food consumption score, was significantly lower for flood-affected households. Although access to social safety nets increased food consumption outcomes, particularly for those in moderately-affected areas, the proportion of households with access to certain safety net programs was lower in 2015 compared with 2013. The latter finding suggests that linking these programs more closely to disaster relief efforts could substantially improve welfare outcomes during and after a natural disaster. Finally, risk-coping strategies, including financial account ownership, access to off-farm income sources, and adult children living away from home, were generally ineffective in mitigating the negative impacts of the floods
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gomez-Mera, Laura A BIT Far? Geography, International Economic Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Emerging Markets
    Abstract: How do international economic agreements influence the investment patterns of firms from emerging economies? This paper studies the ways in which bilateral investment treaties and preferential trade agreements interact with geographic and cultural distance to influence firms' investment patterns. 〈italic〉How does geographic and cultural proximity affect the impact of international economic agreements on foreign direct investment flows?〈/italic〉 This question is answered using data from an original survey of 700 firms from four emerging (or newly-emerged) economies: Brazil, India, the Republic of Korea, and South Africa. The findings suggest that bilateral investment treaties and preferential trade agreements increase the likelihood of foreign direct investment. Yet, the effects of these agreements on foreign direct investment depend on the distance between the origin and potential destination countries. Moreover, trade and investment agreements appear to interact differently with distance. By providing guarantees to investors and signaling credible commitment from host governments, bilateral investment treaties mitigate the higher uncertainty and transaction costs associated with investing in faraway, unfamiliar markets. By contrast, the investment attraction effectiveness of preferential trade agreements fades with distance
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Abel, Martin Bridging the Intention-Behavior Gap? The Effect of Plan-Making Prompts on Job Search and Employment
    Abstract: The paper tests the effects of plan-making on job search and employment. In a field experiment with unemployed youths, participants who complete a detailed job search plan increase the number of job applications submitted (by 15 percent) but not the time spent searching, consistent with intention-behavior gaps observed at baseline. Job seekers in the plan-making group diversify their search strategy and use more formal search channels. This greater search efficiency and effectiveness translate into more job offers (30 percent) and employment (26 percent). Weekly reminders and peer-support sub-treatments do not improve the impacts of plan-making, suggesting that limited attention and accountability are unlikely mechanisms
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space grouped into four categories: debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability, external and private sector debt related risks as potential causes of contingent liabilities, and market access. The authors illustrate potential applications of the database by analyzing developments in fiscal space across three time frames: over the past quarter century; during financial crises; and during oil price plunges. The main results are as follows. First, fiscal space had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mid-2000s. In contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Koehler, Dominik Surveys, Big Data, and Experiments: How Can We Best Learn about LGBTI Development Outcomes?
    Abstract: There is little rigorous quantitative data about the lives of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) people in developing countries. This makes the development of policy to improve the welfare of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex people difficult, and it also makes it difficult to know whether lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex-focused policies and programs are working. Filling this data gap is necessary to understand the development outcomes for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex people. Quantitative data practices exist that can be drawn on to fill the gap, including household surveys, experiments, and big data analysis. Summarizing existing experience, this paper provides guidance on how to study development outcomes for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex people, by: paying attention to the different ways to define sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, and sex characteristics; and collecting samples that allow conclusions to be drawn with the broader lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex community, as well as the general population
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendez-Ramos, Fabian Assessing Forecast Uncertainty: An Information Bayesian Approach
    Abstract: Regardless of the field, forecasts are widely used and yet assessments of the embedded uncertainty-the magnitude of the downside and upside risks of the prediction itself-are often missing. Particularly in policy-making and investment, accounting for these risks around baseline predictions is of outstanding importance for making better and more informed decisions. This paper introduces a procedure to assess risks associated with a random phenomenon. The methodology assigns probability distributions to baseline-projections of an economic or social random variable-for example gross domestic product growth, inflation, population growth, poverty headcount, and so forth-combining ex-post and ex-ante market information. The generated asymmetric density forecasts use information derived from surveys on expectations and implied statistics of predictive models. The methodology also decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk factors. The procedure relies on a Bayesian information-theoretical approach, which allows the inclusion of judgment and forecaster expertise. For reliability purposes and transparency, the paper also evaluates the constructed density forecasts assigning a score. The continuous ranked probability score is used to assess the prediction accuracy of elicited density forecasts. The selected score incentivizes the forecaster to provide its true and best predictive distribution. An empirical application to forecast world gross domestic product growth is used to test the Bayesian entropy methodology. Predictive variance and skewness of world gross domestic product growth are associated with ex-ante information of four risk factors: term spreads, absolute deviations of headline inflation targets, energy prices, and the Standard and Poor's 500 index prices. The Bayesian entropy technique is benchmarked with naive-generated density forecasts that utilize information from historical forecast errors. The results show that the Bayesian density forecasts outperform the naive-generated benchmark predictions, illustrating the value added of the introduced methodology
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Herrera, Santiago Productivity in the Non-Oil Sector in Nigeria: Firm-Level Evidence
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of the productivity of Nigerian firms, using three waves of Enterprise Surveys from 2007, 2009, and 2014 and 7,670 firms. The paper uses three alternative measures of productivity, which are found to be highly correlated: labor productivity, value added per worker, and total factor productivity. The more notable trends in the data show: a rise in productivity, with the output of exporting firms decreasing; increasing concentration of production, reflected in the rise of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index by a factor of three; increasing costs of crime, power outages, lack of security, and bribery; significant heterogeneity of these costs along several dimensions, such as firm size, age, location, and the exporting or domestic nature of the market it serves. These costs are inversely related with investment. Regardless of the measure of productivity, its main determinants are the education of the worker, size of the firm, availability of credit, and business climate variables. When labor productivity is used, the stock of capital is also a major determinant of productivity. Within the investment climate variables, power outages and the corruption index are the more significant ones. Power outages are negatively associated with productivity. Bribery is positively related, supporting the "greasing the wheels" hypothesis of bribery as a factor that reduces transaction costs. The impact is nonlinear, as it decreases with firm size. The results also show a positive association between productivity and exporting, but the causality is reversed when the analysis controls for endogeneity: productivity is a weak determinant of the likelihood of a firm becoming an exporter
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als de la Cuesta, Brandon Taxation without Representation? Experimental Evidence from Ghana and Uganda on Citizen Action toward Taxes, Oil, and Aid
    Abstract: Seminal arguments in political economy hold that citizens will more readily demand accountability from governments for taxes than for non-tax revenue from oil or aid. Two identical experiments on large, representative subject pools in Ghana and Uganda probe the effects of different revenue types on citizens' actions to monitor government spending. Roughly half of all subjects willingly sign petitions and donate money to scrutinize all three sources. However, neither Ghanaians nor Ugandans are more likely to take action for tax revenues than for oil or aid. The results also suggest no differences among taxes, oil, and aid in citizens' perceptions of transparency, misappropriation risk, or public goods provision. The results are robust to several alternative specifications and subgroup partitions, including the better educated, wealthier, and taxpaying population, suggesting a need for rethinking the axiom that taxation strengthens citizens' demands for accountability in developing countries
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Grainger, Corbett A The Impact of Electricity Shortages on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Pakistan
    Abstract: Power shortages present a significant challenge to manufacturers, who rely on power as a key input to production. In Pakistan, power shortages are commonplace, but empirical evidence on the impact of shortages is still lacking. Using a survey of 4,500 manufacturing firms for the year 2010-11, this paper estimates the impact of electricity shortages on firm productivity in Pakistan. The analysis finds that a 10 percent increase in the duration of outages on average leads to a 0.14 percent decrease in a firm's total revenue and a 0.36 percent decrease in the value added, all else being equal. There is heterogeneity in the impacts of shortages across sectors: the industries that are most energy-intensive, such as manufacturers of metal, wood, and paper, are affected the most severely by shortages
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Beasley, Elizabeth Willing but Unable? Short-Term Experimental Evidence on Parent Empowerment and School Quality
    Abstract: Giving power over school management and spending decisions to communities has been a favored strategy to increase school quality, but its effectiveness may depend on local capacity. Grants are one form of such a transfer of power. Short-term responses of a grant to school committees in Niger show that parents increased participation and responsibility, but these efforts did not improve quality on average. Enrollment at the lowest grades increased and school resources improved, but teacher absenteeism increased, and there was no measured impact on test scores. An analysis of heterogeneous impacts and spending decisions provides additional insight into these dynamics. Overall, the findings suggest that programs based on parent participation should take levels of community capacity into account: even when communities are willing to work to improve their schools, they may not be able to do so. The short-term nature of the experiment reduces the extent to which the results can be generalized
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart Approximating Income Distribution Dynamics Using Aggregate Data
    Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology to approximate individual income distribution dynamics using only time series data on aggregate moments of the income distribution. Under the assumption that individual incomes follow a lognormal autoregressive process, this paper shows that the evolution over time of the mean and standard deviation of log income across individuals provides sufficient information to place upper and lower bounds on the degree of mobility in the income distribution. The paper demonstrates that these bounds are reasonably informative, using the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics where the panel structure of the data allows us to compare measures of mobility directly estimated from the micro data with approximations based only on aggregate data. Bounds on mobility are estimated for a large cross-section of countries, using data on aggregate moments of the income distribution available in the World Wealth and Income Database and the World Bank's PovcalNet database. The estimated bounds on mobility imply that conventional anonymous growth rates of the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent) that do not account for mobility substantially understate (overstate) the expected growth performance of those initially in the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent)
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Tan, Shawn W The Effect of Local Governance on Firm Productivity and Resource Allocation: Evidence from Vietnam
    Abstract: Governance quality plays a key role in private sector development: competent bureaucrats not only create good policies and regulations, but also effectively implement them to shape the business environment. This paper exploit Vietnam's decentralization of administrative tasks since the early 2000s to test this hypothesis. The paper examines how changes in the provincial administration of national business regulations affect firms through two channels: within-firm productivity levels and resource allocation across firms. The results show that better overall business environment has a positive impact on firm productivity, and this effect is driven by a reduction in corruption levels, the risks of land expropriation, and entry regulations. The analysis also finds that high-productivity firms are generally better able to take advantage of improvements in the business environment. However, better implementation of entry regulations matters most for less productive firms. The study does not find evidence for the impact of business environment quality on province-level market efficiency
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Joshi, Shareen Are Caste Categories Misleading? The Relationship between Gender and Jati in Three Indian States
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between caste and gender inequality in three states in India. When households are grouped using conventional, government-defined categories of caste the paper finds patterns that are consistent with existing literature: lower-caste women are more likely to participate in the labor market, have greater decision-making autonomy within their households, and experience greater freedom of movement. When households are grouped by the narrower sub-caste categories of jati, where caste is lived and experienced, the paper finds the relationships to be far more varied and nuanced. These results suggest that focussing on broad caste categories such as "scheduled castes" and "scheduled tribes" can be misleading for understanding the relationship between caste and gender, and for targeting anti-poverty programs
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Savastano, Sara Farm Size and Productivity: A "Direct-Inverse-Direct" Relationship
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new interpretation of the farm size-productivity relationship. Using two rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, and drawing on earlier work on five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper shows that the relationship between farm size and productivity is neither monotonic nor univocal. Most previous studies that tested the inverse farm size-productivity relationship used ordinary least squares estimation, therefore reporting parameter estimates at the conditional mean of productivity. By expanding these important findings to consider the entire distribution of agricultural productivity, the analysis finds sign switches across the distribution, pointing to a "direct-inverse-direct" relationship. Less productive farmers exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship between land productivity and farm size, while more productive farmers show a U-shape relationship that reverses the relationship. In both cases, the relationship points toward a threshold value of farm size; however, the threshold is a minimum for the less productive farmers and a maximum for the more productive ones. To the left of the threshold, for very small farmers, the relationship between productivity and farm size is positive; for the range of middle farm size, the relationship is negative; and to the right of the threshold, the relationship is direct (positive) again. From a policy perspective, these findings imply that efficiency-enhancing and redistributive land reform should consider farm size in the proper context of the present and potential levels of agricultural productivity. The results and their policy implications underline the relevance of the most recent efforts of the international development community to collect more reliable georeferenced data on farm size and agricultural productivity
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Datt, Gaurav Multidimensional Poverty in the Philippines, 2004-13: Do Choices for Weighting, Identification and Aggregation Matter?
    Abstract: Multidimensional poverty comparisons can be sensitive to the choice of welfare indicators, the weights assigned to the indicators, as well as the aggregate poverty measure used. This paper examines the robustness of trends in multidimensional poverty in the Philippines to these choices by presenting estimates for three alternative weighting schemes and three measures of multidimensional poverty. The weighting schemes range from uniform weights similar to those used in the global multidimensional poverty indexes produced by the United Nations Development Programme, to weights based on inverse incidence of different deprivations and those derived from the estimated relationship of deprivations to a survey-based measure of subjective welfare. The multidimensional poverty measures similarly range from the "dual cut-off" indexes analogous to the United Nations Development Programme's global Multidimensional Poverty Index, to "union-based" indexes that count all deprivations, to indexes that are also responsive to the distribution of deprivations. Using data for 2004-13, the paper finds evidence of a significant decline in multidimensional poverty that is robust to these alternatives, although the magnitude of the decline in, and especially the dimensional contributions to, aggregate multidimensional poverty are quite sensitive to the alternatives considered
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Montalvao, Joao Soft Skills for Hard Constraints: Evidence from High-Achieving Female Farmers
    Abstract: This paper documents the positive link between the noncognitive skills of women farmers and the adoption of a cash crop. The context is Malawi, one of the poorest countries in the world, where the majority of rural households practice subsistence farming. The analysis finds that a one standard deviation increase in noncognitive ability related to perseverance is associated with a five percentage point (or 33 percent) increase in the probability of adoption of the main cash crop. This link is not explained by differences across women in education and cognitive skills. It is also not explained by the fact that women with higher noncognitive ability tend to be married to husbands of higher noncognitive ability and education. The effect of female noncognitive skills on adoption is concentrated in patrilocal communities, where women face greater adversity and thus where it would be expected that the returns to such skills would be highest. One main channel through which noncognitive skills seem to work is through the use of productive inputs, including higher levels of labor, fertilizer, and agricultural advice services
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chong, Alberto Information Technology and Provision of National Identification Cards by the Bolivian Police: Evidence from Two Randomized Natural Field Experiments
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potential of information technology to improve public service delivery and empower citizens. The investigation uses two randomized natural experiments in the renewal of national identification cards by the Bolivian Police. The first experiment arises from the random assignment of police officers and applicants to a manual or digital renewal process, which is identical in all other aspects. The second experiment arises from technical failures in the digital renewal process, which allow police officers to change from the digital to the manual renewal process randomly across renewal days. The efficiency of public service delivery is measured in renewal success rates (which average to a strikingly low rate of 72 percent in the sample) and the time it takes to renew an identification card. The findings show that applicants who were randomly assigned to the digital renewal process were on average 12 percentage points more likely to complete it, compared with those who were randomly assigned to the manual process. Further, successful applicants who were randomly assigned to the digital process took on average 31 percent less time to complete the process, compared with those who were randomly assigned to the manual process. The investigation finds that information technology significantly lowers barriers to accessing national identification cards, and promotes more equitable provision across the population. The findings suggest that information technology might achieve these goals by introducing efficiencies (such as reducing administrative shortcomings and transaction costs) and limiting the exercise of discretion by police officers in the renewal process
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rajbhandari, Ashish Does Energy Efficiency Promote Economic Growth?: Evidence from a Multi-Country and Multi-Sector Panel Data Set
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high- and middle-income countries from 1978 to 2012. Using a panel vector autoregression approach, the study finds evidence of a long-run Granger causality from economic growth to lower energy intensity for all countries. The study also finds evidence of long-run bidirectional causality between lower energy intensity and higher economic growth for middle-income countries. This finding suggests that beyond climate benefits, middle-income countries may also earn an extra growth dividend from energy efficiency measures
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Reyes, German Jeremias Perceptions of Distributive Justice in Latin America during a Period of Falling Inequality
    Abstract: This paper explores perceptions of distributive justice in Latin America during the 2000s and their relationship with income inequality. In line with the fall in income inequality in the region, the paper documents a widespread, although modest, decrease in the share of the population that believes income distribution is unfair. The fall in the perception of unfairness holds across very heterogeneous groups of the population. Moreover, perceptions evolved in the same direction as income inequality for 17 of the 18 countries for which microdata are available. The analysis reveals that unfairness perceptions are more correlated with relative measures of income inequality than absolute ones, and that individual characteristics are correlated with distributive perceptions. On average, individuals who are older, more educated, unemployed, and left-wing tend to perceive income distribution as more unfair. The paper shows that the decrease in unfairness perceptions during the past decade was due to changes in inequality, rather than to composition effects. Finally, the paper shows that individuals who perceive income distribution as very unfair are more prone to mobilize and protest
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gupta, Poonam Should Emerging Markets Worry about U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements?
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy announcements on emerging market economies since end-2008, the period coinciding with the use of unconventional policy measures. Monetary policy surprises are measured by changes in two-year Treasury yields in short windows of time around the Federal Reserve Board's policy announcements. The analysis finds that U.S. monetary policy surprises have a significant impact on emerging economies' exchange rates, equity prices, and bond yields. The impact is larger for surprise tightening of policy than for surprise easing. The impact is disproportionately larger for large surprises, implying that emerging markets are relatively insulated from anticipated policy announcements. The spillover effects of policy announcements of other advanced economies, such as the euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom, are found to be much weaker than those of the United States
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  • 44
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Heuser, Cecilia Services Trade and Global Value Chains
    Abstract: Services play a role in global value chains in many ways, similar to goods. But services deserve special attention because of how they are transacted, how they affect downstream sectors, how they are regulated, and how international cooperation can contribute to integrating national markets. Databases on trade in value added, which cover only cross-border transactions in services, reveal a high and growing share of services in trade in value added across countries and industries. Although international transactions in services that take place through foreign investment are difficult to measure, their economic impact can be estimated. The resulting improved access to financial, communications, and transport services facilitates the emergence of global value chains, enhances downstream manufacturing firms' productivity, and shifts the pattern of comparative advantage toward sectors intensive in these services. Despite significant unilateral liberalization, service markets in many countries remain protected by restrictions on the entry of foreign services and service providers, as well as discretionary and discriminatory regulatory requirements. International cooperation in services has attempted to follow the example of reciprocal market opening for goods, but this approach has delivered little incremental liberalization. More could be achieved through greater emphasis on international regulatory cooperation
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ponomariov, B Tax Administration Practices and Firms' Perceptions of Corruption: Evidence from Europe and Central Asia
    Abstract: Two competing conceptualizations of corruption in the literature allow viewing it either as efficient or burdensome from firms' perspective. Using data on the prevalence and nature of firms' interactions with tax authorities in 28 countries in Europe and Central Asia, this paper contributes to the evaluation of competing ideas in the literature about firms' experience of corruption in tax administration. The findings presented in the paper provide provisional support for the second line of reasoning, that corruption in taxation is a burden, rather than a type of efficiency. Special emphasis is given to examination of taxation-related determinants of corruption prevalence (frequency and magnitude of bribery), as well as the effect of the interaction with tax authorities on perception of tax and overall corruption. Regardless of country context, it appears that, more than anything else, perceived corruption in tax administration and actual experiences with bribery during interactions with tax officials, affect the overall perceptions of corruption
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Parthasarathy, Ramya Deliberative Inequality: A Text-As-Data Study Of Tamil Nadu's Village Assemblies
    Abstract: The resurgence of deliberative institutions in the developing world has prompted a renewed interest in the dynamics of citizen engagement. Using text-as-data methods on an original corpus of village assembly transcripts from rural Tamil Nadu, India, this paper opens the "black box" of deliberation to examine the gendered and status-based patterns of influence. Drawing on normative theories of deliberation, this analysis identifies a set of clear empirical standards for "good" deliberation, based on an individual's ability both to speak and be heard, and uses natural language processing methods to generate these measures. The study first shows that these assemblies are not mere "talking shop" for state officials to bluster and read banal announcements, but rather, provide opportunities for citizens to challenge their elected officials, demand transparency, and provide information about authentic local development needs. Second, the study finds that across multiple measures of deliberative influence, women are at a disadvantage relative to men; women are less likely to speak, set the agenda, and receive a relevant response from state officials. Finally, the paper shows that although quotas for women on village councils have little impact on the likelihood that they speak, they do improve the likelihood that female citizens are heard
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  • 47
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Patankar, Archana Colombo: Exposure, Vulnerability, and Ability to Respond to Floods
    Abstract: This paper examines the exposure, vulnerability, and ability of households in Colombo, Sri Lanka, to respond to floods, and brings out significant policy implications. The study used detailed questionnaire-based surveys to obtain data on households, to understand the vulnerability and impacts of the severe floods of November 2010 and recurrent floods since then. Households that were selected for the surveys were located in and around flooding spots in the city. The study finds that the floods have imposed a significant burden on poor households. Poor and nonpoor households have suffered damages to the structure of their houses, household assets and appliances, and vehicles. With recurrent floods, they continue to bear the cost of damages as well as short-term measures to cope with floods. For poor families, these costs are borne through very limited resources and borrowing from informal sources, compared with the nonpoor who have more savings in financial form and greater access to formal sources of credit. Poor families tend to invest all their earnings in their home, furniture, and utensils, which suffer the most during floods. In addition, households suffer indirect impacts due to non-availability of transport, power, drinking water, food, and essential supplies. They also tend to lose workdays, which leads to loss of income and productivity. Many poor families have considered relocation to flood-free areas, but they lack the financial resources for the move. If the government offers such a scheme, many would be willing to take it up, if factors like job opportunities, clean surroundings, access to medical facilities, transportation, and good social networks are ensured in the new locations
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chan, H. Ron Energy Prices and International Trade: Incorporating Input-Output Linkages
    Abstract: .1 billion a year. Similarly, a carbon tax that unilaterally increases energy prices by 10 percent in the European Union could reduce European Union-wide net manufacturing exports by 1.9 percent annually
    Abstract: .1 billion a year. Similarly, a carbon tax that unilaterally increases energy prices by 10 percent in the European Union could reduce European Union-wide net manufacturing exports by 1.9 percent annually
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kafle, Kashi Do Different Types of Assets Have Differential Effects on Child Education? Evidence from Tanzania
    Abstract: To assess the conventional view that assets uniformly improve childhood development through wealth effects, this paper tests whether different types of assets have different effects on child education. The analysis indicates that household durables and housing quality have the expected positive effects, but agricultural assets have adverse effects on highest grade completed and no effects on exam performance. Extending the standard agricultural-household model by explicitly including child labor, the study uses three waves of panel data from Tanzania to estimate the effects of household assets on child education. The analysis corrects for the endogeneity of assets and uses a Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable panel data estimator to identify the effects of time-invariant observables and more efficiently control for time-invariant unobservables. The negative effect of agricultural assets is more pronounced among rural children and children from farming households, presumably due to the higher opportunity cost of their schooling
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Shapira, Gil Effects of Performance Incentives for Community Health Worker Cooperatives in Rwanda
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial set to evaluate the effects of a pay-for-performance scheme that rewarded community health worker cooperatives for the utilization of five targeted maternal and child health services by their communities. The experiment took place in 19 districts in Rwanda between 2010 and 2014. The analysis finds no impact of the performance payments on coverage of the targeted services, attitudes and behaviors of community health workers, or outcomes at the cooperative level. No synergies are found between the scheme and a demand-side, in-kind transfer intervention that was independently effective in increasing coverage rates of targeted services
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Carletto, Calogero Collecting the Dirt on Soils: Advancements in Plot-Level Soil Testing and Implications for Agricultural Statistics
    Abstract: Much of the current analysis on agricultural productivity is hampered by the lack of consistent, high quality data on soil health and how it is changing under past and current management. Historically, plot-level statistics derived from household surveys have relied on subjective farmer assessments of soil quality or, more recently, publicly available geospatial data. The Living Standards Measurement Study of the World Bank implemented a methodological study in Ethiopia, which resulted in an unprecedented data set encompassing a series of subjective indicators of soil quality as well as spectral soil analysis results on plot-specific soil samples for 1,677 households. The goals of the study, which was completed in partnership with the World Agroforestry Centre and the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia, were twofold: (1) evaluate the feasibility of integrating a soil survey into household socioeconomic data collection operations, and (2) evaluate local knowledge of farmers in assessing their soil quality. Although a costlier method than subjective assessment, the integration of spectral soil analysis in household surveys has potential for scale-up. In this study, the first large scale study of its kind, enumerators spent approximately 40 minutes per plot collecting soil samples, not a particularly prohibitive figure given the proper timeline and budget. The correlation between subjective indicators of soil quality and key soil properties, such as organic carbon, is weak at best. Evidence suggests that farmers are better able to distinguish between soil qualities in areas with greater variation in soil properties. Descriptive analysis shows that geospatial data, while positively correlated with laboratory results and offering significant improvements over subject assessment, fail to capture the level of variation observed on the ground. The results of this study give promise that soil spectroscopy could be introduced into household panel surveys in smallholder agricultural contexts, such as Ethiopia, as a rapid and cost-effective soil analysis technique with valuable outcomes. Reductions in uncertainties in assessing soil quality and, hence, improvements in smallholder agricultural statistics, enable better decision-making
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nomura, Shinsaku The Influence of Non-Cognitive Skills on Wages within and between Firms: Evidence from Bangladesh's Formal Sector
    Abstract: Many employers and employees believe that non-cognitive skills are an important contributor to labor market success. This study has assessed the empirical evidence for such a claim in the case of Bangladesh by evaluating unique employer-employee matched labor market data. The analysis is based on data collected from 6,981 workers in 500 formal sector firms in Bangladesh's five largest formal economic sectors. Using ordinary least squares and firm fixed-effect models, the study assesses correlations between wages and the so-called "big five" personality traits, and augments the analysis with the latent personality scores captured by the Rasch model. Comparing the ordinary least squares and fixed-effect models reveals statistically significant correlations between personality traits and wages, within and across firms. The results appear to indicate that non-cognitive skills are correlated with a worker's likelihood of achieving success in the labor market. Although many of the findings are consistent with the literature, the analysis reveals specific patterns that appear to be unique to Bangladesh, including a positive correlation between "emotional stability" and wages and a negative correlation between "grit" and wages, especially among manufacturing workers. Differences across firms could indicate that firms that offer higher wages may tend to attract workers with distinct types of non-cognitive skills, whereas differences within firms may indicate that variations in non-cognitive skills are associated with disparities in firm-level wage structures. Correlations between wages and personality traits are more prominent among large firms than among small or medium-sized firms
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Anginer, Deniz Do Individual Investors Ignore Transaction Costs?
    Abstract: Using close to 800,000 (2,000,000) transactions by 66,000 (303,000) households in the United States (in Finland), this paper shows that individual investors with longer holding periods choose to hold less liquid stocks in their portfolios, consistent with Amihud and Mendelson's (1986) theory of liquidity clienteles. The relationship between holding periods and transaction costs is stronger among more financially sophisticated households. Households whose holding periods are positively related to transaction costs also earn higher gross returns on their investments before accounting for transaction costs, suggesting that attention to non-salient transaction costs is an indication of investing ability. The main findings are confirmed by analyzing changes in investors' holding periods around exogenous shocks to stock liquidity
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  • 54
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Verme, Paolo The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction
    Abstract: Forced displacement-defined as the displacement of refugees and internally displaced persons due to violence-has reached an unprecedented scale and global attention during the past few years, particularly in the aftermath of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2011 and the European Union's migration crisis in 2015. As this plight gained momentum, economics found itself unprepared to answer the basic questions surrounding refugees and internally displaced persons. Few economists or institutions were working on forced displacement. Economic theory or empirics had little to offer in articles published in journals. Data were scarce, unreliable, or inaccessible. Can economics rise to the challenge? Is the economics of forced displacement different from neoclassical economics? Can off-the-shelves models be used to study forced displaced populations? What is missing to do the economics of forced displacement? What are the data constraints that limit economists in this work? This paper provides a first nontechnical introduction to these topics. The paper argues that the modeling of utility, choice, risk, and information in a short-term setting is the key to address the problem. Neoclassical economics lacks some of the theoretical ingredients that are needed, but recent developments in game theory, neuroeconomics, and behavioral economics have opened new horizons that make the task of modeling forced displacement within reach. Empirics is clearly limited by the scarcity of quality data, but an example shows how welfare economists can start working with existing data. Economists have no excuse to maintain the status quo and should get on with the work on forced displacement
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  • 55
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kugler, Maurice Migration and Cross-Border Financial Flows
    Abstract: Migration facilitates the flow of information between countries, thereby reducing informational frictions that potentially hamper cross-country financial flows. Using a gravity model, migration is found to be highly correlated with financial flows from the migrant's host country to her home country. The correlation is strongest where information problems are more acute (e.g., between culturally more distant countries), for asset types that are more informational sensitive, and for the type of migrants that are most able to enhance the flow of information on their home countries, namely, skilled migrants. These differential effects are interpreted as evidence for the role of migration in reducing information frictions between countries
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hochman, Gal Fuel Efficiency Versus Fuel Substitution in the Transport Sector: An Econometric Analysis
    Abstract: The transport sector offers limited options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as compared with other sectors, such as power generation and industrial sectors. To understand the potential reduction of energy consumption and associated emissions through fuel substitution or transportation service demand reduction, this study estimates own- and cross-price elasticities of various fuels used for transportation. The analysis shows, like many previous studies, that an increase in fuel prices would not have a large effect on transport sector carbon dioxide emissions, due to limited substitution possibilities among fuels for transportation. The study also finds that price-induced changes that lead to an increase in the rate of adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles would be more effective than a policy to cause fuel substitution
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Jamison, Julian C The Entry of Randomized Assignment into the Social Sciences
    Abstract: Although the concept of randomized assignment to control for extraneous factors reaches back hundreds of years, the first empirical use appears to have been in an 1835 trial of homeopathic medicine. Throughout the 19th century, there was primarily a growing awareness of the need for careful comparison groups, albeit often without the realization that randomization could be a particularly clean method to achieve that goal. In the second and more crucial phase of this history, four separate but related disciplines introduced randomized control trials within a few years of one another in the 1920s: agricultural science, clinical medicine, educational psychology, and social policy (specifically political science). Randomized control trials brought more rigor to fields that were in the process of expanding their purviews and focusing more on causal relationships. In the third phase, the 1950s through the 1970s saw a surge of interest in more applied randomized experiments in economics and elsewhere, in the lab and especially in the field
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence
    Abstract: Jobs are the number one policy concern of policy makers in many countries. The global financial crisis, rising demographic pressures, high unemployment rates, and concerns over automation all make it seem imperative that policy makers employ increasingly more active labor market policies. This paper critically examines recent evaluations of labor market policies that have provided vocational training, wage subsidies, job search assistance, and assistance moving to argue that many active labor market policies are much less effective than policymakers typically assume. Many of these evaluations find no significant impacts on either employment or earnings. One reason is that urban labor markets appear to work reasonably well in many cases, with fewer market failures than is often thought. As a result, there is less of a role for many traditional active labor market policies than is common practice. The review then discusses examples of job creation policies that do seem to offer promise, and concludes with lessons for impact evaluation and policy is this area
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alibhai, Salman Crossovers: Female Entrepreneurs Who Enter Male Sectors: Evidence from Ethiopia
    Abstract: Occupational sector selection is an important determinant of returns for female entrepreneurs. If sectors that are traditionally male owned could provide an opportunity to earn higher returns, then what factors could encourage women to cross over into these sectors or prevent them from doing so? To examine this question, this paper uses data from Ethiopia to compare the firm performance and characteristics of women in male-dominated sectors (crossovers) with women who are in female-concentrated sectors (noncrossovers). The findings show that female-owned enterprises in male-dominated sectors perform better on average than those in female-concentrated sectors, with firms achieving higher profits and having more employees. The descriptive results show that crossovers do not necessarily have more education or greater skills than noncrossovers. Rather, women's relationships and networks, especially those provided through male relatives, and being opportunity-driven entrepreneurs appear to influence the likelihood of entering a more-profitable, male-dominated sector. The study explores the implications and challenges of encouraging female entrepreneurs to enter male-dominated sectors, in an effort to provide new insight into how the earning gap between male and female entrepreneurs can be closed
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Majumdar, Shruti On the Frontlines of Scaling-Up: A Qualitative Analysis of Implementation Challenges in a CDD Project in Rural India
    Abstract: This paper analyzes four years of qualitative data observing a large participatory anti-poverty project in India as it scales up from its first phase (covering 400,000 households) to its second (covering 800,000 households). Focusing on the frontlines of change-at the village level, the analysis finds that the key difference between implementation in the two phases of the project was that facilitators in the first phase deployed a discourse that was carefully "co-produced" with its beneficiaries. Through careful groundwork and creative improvisation, facilitators incorporated the interests of multiple stakeholders on the ground while bringing beneficiaries into the project. However, as the project scaled up, participants were mobilized quickly with a homogenous and fixed script that lacked the kind of improvisation that characterized the first phase, and which failed to include diverse stakeholder interests, objectives, and voices. These differences significantly reduced the intensity of participation and its concomitant social impacts. The study finds that the work of facilitators was embedded in a larger shift in organizational priorities within the project, which in turn was responding to a shift in the political climate
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bertomeu-Sanchez, Salvador Do Private Water Utility Operators Care about Regulatory Agencies in Developing Countries?
    Abstract: This paper shows that the creation of an independent regulatory agency is often not a necessary or sufficient condition to help attract private participation in the operation and financing of the water and sanitation sector in developing countries. However, the odds of an impact are significantly higher for Latin American and Caribbean countries and, to a lesser extent, Eastern European countries, than for any other region. Higher income levels and higher prices are also correlated with higher effectiveness of independent regulatory agencies in attracting private sector financing. Analysis of the impact on various types of public-private partnership contracts shows that, at the margin, independent regulatory agencies are irrelevant in general, for the contract choice, except for greenfield projects, for which such agencies may be counterproductive at the margin
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth: A Review of Recent Empirical Evidence
    Abstract: There is growing evidence that appropriate financial services have substantial benefits for consumers, especially women and poor adults. This paper provides an overview of financial inclusion around the world and reviews the recent empirical evidence on how the use of financial products-such as payments services, savings accounts, loans, and insurance-can contribute to inclusive growth and economic development. This paper also discusses some of the challenges to achieving greater financial inclusion and directions for future research
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  • 63
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cali, Massimiliano How Much Labor Do South African Exports Contain?
    Abstract: Like many emerging economies, South Africa has identified exports as an engine for more inclusive, job-intensive growth. However, employment growth did not follow the substantial export growth that South Africa experienced in the 2000s. This paper uses a newly developed World Bank database-the Labor Content of Exports-to show that the composition of South Africa's export growth helps to understand the weak relationship between export and employment growth. Minerals exports, which propelled export as well as wage growth, are not job intensive and as a result supported far less job growth. Minerals have also increasingly become an enclave sector with few backward linkages to the domestic economy. In contrast, manufacturing exports support jobs and wages primarily in input-providing sectors, where indirect manufacturing employment is nearly 4.5 times greater than direct manufacturing employment. The paper also documents a shift in the labor content of global value chain-intensive manufacturing sectors away from direct manufacturing to indirect services. Such a shift has been biased toward skilled labor. As a results of these trends, labor in services sectors has been the main beneficiary of South Africa's export growth, absorbing more than half of the growth in wage income from exports over the 2000s, primarily by supplying inputs to other sectors' exports
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh H Is Poverty in Africa Mostly Chronic Or Transient? Evidence from Synthetic Panel Data
    Abstract: Absent actual panel household survey data, this paper constructs, for the first time, synthetic panel data for more than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this process, the analysis employs repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. The analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. One-third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a 9 percent reduction in poverty and a 28 percent increase in the size of the middle class. However, chronic poverty remains high, and a considerable proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty. There is some limited evidence that most resource-rich and middle-income countries have more upward mobility than downward mobility. Post-secondary education is especially strongly associated with higher upward mobility and less downward mobility, which holds to some extent for female-headed and urban households
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kerr, William R Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns
    Abstract: Migration and trade are often linked through ethnic networks boosting bilateral trade. This study uses migration to quantify the importance of Ricardian technology differences for international trade. The framework provides the first panel estimates connecting country-industry productivity and exports, and the study exploits heterogeneous technology diffusion from immigrant communities in the United States for identification. The latter instruments are developed by combining panel variation on the development of new technologies across US cities with historical settlement patterns for migrants from countries. The instrumented elasticity of export growth on the intensive margin with respect to the exporter's productivity growth is between 1.6 and 2.4, depending upon weighting. This provides an important contribution to the trade literature of Ricardian advantages, and it establishes a connection of migration to home country exports beyond bilateral networks
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pursch, Samuel Documenting Myanmar's Social Transformation: Insights from Six Rounds of Research on Livelihoods and Social Change in Rural Communities
    Abstract: This paper presents the initial findings from six rounds of research conducted between 2012 and 2016 on livelihoods and social change in rural Myanmar, undertaken as part of the Qualitative Social and Economic Monitoring initiative. These data provide unique insights into the ways in which broad processes of democratization and globalization-put into effect following Myanmar's historic reforms beginning in 2011-are experienced at the village level. The analysis focuses on three key aspects of the "social contract": local governance mechanisms, shifting expectations of the state, and changes in the types of networks connecting villagers to regional and global markets. Remarkable social progress has been made in Myanmar since 2012, yet there are no grounds for complacency. Managing ongoing transformations in these three domains, in ways perceived to be locally legitimate and effective, will be crucial if the initial gains are to be consolidated and expanded
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