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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8495
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baffes, John The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption over this period. As emerging market economies mature and shift towards less commodity-intensive activities, their demand for commodities may plateau. This paper estimates income elasticities of demand for a range of energy, metal and food commodities, and finds evidence of plateauing among several commodities. Looking ahead, as economies mature and GDP growth slows, growth in demand for commodities may also slow. Based on current population and GDP growth forecasts, this paper produces scenarios of potential growth in demand for commodities over the next decade. While global energy consumption growth may remain broadly steady, growth in global demand for metals and food could slow by one-third over the next decade. This would dampen global commodity prices. Despite an expected slowdown in its growth rate, China would likely remain the single largest consumer of many commodities. For the two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that depend on raw materials for government and export revenues, these prospects reinforce the need for economic diversification and the strengthening of policy frameworks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8495
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation : concepts, evolution, and correlates (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8738
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the past four to five decades, inflation has fallen around the world, with median annual global consumer price inflation down from a peak of 16.6 percent in 1974 to 2.6 percent in 2017. This decline began in advanced economies in the mid-1980s and in emerging market and developing economies in the mid-1990s. By 2000, global inflation had stabilized at historically low levels. Lower inflation has been accompanied by reduced inflation volatility, especially in advanced economies. This improvement in inflation outcomes has stemmed in large part from structural economic changes, including improved monetary and fiscal policy frameworks as well as international trade and financial liberalization. Lower and more stable inflation has often been associated with better growth and development outcomes, partly by reducing uncertainty, fostering a more efficient allocation of resources, and helping preserve financial stability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8738
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding inflation in emerging and developing economies (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8761
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs, disinflation occurred across all regions. This paper presents a summary of a recent book, 'Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies', that analyzes this remarkable achievement. The findings suggest that many EMDEs enjoy the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies. In EMDEs that do not operate inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate movements tend to have larger and more persistent effects on inflation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8761
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions? (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8784
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The fiscal position can affect fiscal multipliers through two channels. Through the Ricardian channel, households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments when fiscal stimulus is implemented from a weak fiscal position. Through the interest rate channel, fiscal stimulus from a weak fiscal position heightens investors' concerns about sovereign credit risk, raises economy-wide borrowing cost, and reduces private domestic demand. The paper documents empirically the relevance of these two channels using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model. It finds that fiscal multipliers tend to be smaller when fiscal positions are weak than strong
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8784
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Can this time be different? : policy options in times of rising debt (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9178
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post-crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt-related transactions are transparently reported
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9178
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ohnsorge, Franziska L Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts
    Abstract: This paper presents a procedure to construct an asymmetric fan chart of risks around global growth forecasts. The distribution of risks around global growth forecasts is estimated by weighting information extracted from option pricing and survey-based measures of risk factors of global growth. The weights are estimated using a vector autoregression analysis. The empirical estimates indicate that forecast uncertainty has increased since January 2016, while the balance of risks to global growth has tilted to the downside
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7770
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Implications of cheap oil for emerging markets (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9403
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kabundi, Alain Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse and its drivers with previous ones in an event study. It finds that it was associated with an exceptionally severe plunge in oil demand. Second, in a local projections model, this paper estimates the implications of demand- and supply-driven oil price collapses for growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). The paper finds that steep oil price collapses were associated with significant and lasting output losses in energy-exporting EMDEs but no meaningful output gains in energy-importing EMDEs. These results are robust to multiple robustness checks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9403
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global inflation synchronization (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8768
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Global Inflation Synchronization
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. The authors' methodology allows them to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. The paper reports three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8768
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Casting a shadow : productivity of formal firms and informality (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice & Development Economics Global Indicators Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8945
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amin, Mohammad Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using firm-level survey data for a large cross section of countries, the paper assesses the gap in labor productivity between formal and informal firms in developing countries for which comparable data are available. It also investigates the impact of competition from informal firms on the labor productivity of formal firms. The results show that on average, the labor productivity of informal firms is about one-fourth that of formal firms. Moreover, the labor productivity of formal firms that face competition from informal firms is about 75 percent of the average labor productivity of formal firms that do not experience informal competition. This suggests that competition from the informal sector can erode formal firms' market share and the resources available to boost productivity where formal firms shoulder the additional cost of regulatory compliance. These findings are robust to a range of firm and country characteristics as well as checks for endogeneity concerns
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8945
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Debt and financial crises (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9116
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wee Chian Koh Debt and Financial Crises
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises - after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service cover, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9116
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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