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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Consumption Smoothing and Shock Persistence : Optimal Simple Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendes, Arthur Consumption Smoothing and Shock Persistence: Optimal Simple Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters
    Abstract: A common criticism of balanced budget fiscal rules is that they increase the consumption volatility of financially constrained households who are unable to smooth consumption. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of simple fiscal rules in a model of a small commodity-exporting country with a share of financially constrained households, where fiscal policy takes the form of transfers. A main finding is that balanced budget rules for commodity revenues often outperform more sophisticated fiscal rules where commodity revenues are saved in a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Because commodity price shocks are typically highly persistent, the households' current income is close to their permanent income, making balanced budget rules close to optimal. For commodities like oil, where price shocks are highly persistent, it is optimal to spend more than two-thirds of windfall revenues in times of high prices, and in some cases even spend the entire windfall. But for commodities where price shocks are less persistent, like bananas or sugar, the optimal rule involves spending less than half of above-average commodity revenues (with the rest saved in a SWF). It is also best to respond counter-cyclically to non-resource GDP shocks, because those shocks are less persistent (and also affect households other income). The government does not have the ability to perfectly smooth constrained households' consumption without adversely affecting unconstrained households
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8035
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    One rule fits all? : heterogeneous fiscal rules for commodity exporters when price shocks can be persistent : theory and evidence (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9400
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendes, Arthur One Rule Fits All? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters when Price Shocks can be Persistent: Theory and Evidence
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Commodity-exporting developing economies are often characterized as having needlessly procyclical fiscal policy: spending when commodity prices are high and cutting back when prices fall. The standard policy advice is instead to save during price windfalls and maintain spending during price busts. This paper questions this characterization and policy advice. Using a New Keynesian model, it finds that optimal fiscal policy is heterogeneous depending on the commodity exported and exchange rate regime. Optimal fiscal policy is often procyclical in countries with floating exchange rates because many commodity price shocks are highly persistent, and so they should be spent according to the permanent income hypothesis. In contrast, in countries with fixed exchange rates, optimal fiscal policy becomes countercyclical to smooth the business cycle. Empirically, the paper introduces a new measure of fiscal cyclicality, the marginal propensity to spend (MPS) an extra dollar of commodity revenues, and shows that it is moderately procyclical overall but highly heterogeneous across countries depending on their characteristics. Consistent with theory, the MPS is more procyclical in countries with floating exchange rates than those with fixed exchange rates. Moreover, in countries with floating exchange rates, the MPS is higher in countries facing more persistent commodity price shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9400
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers : Evidence from Brazil (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendes, Arthur The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
    Keywords: Bartik Instrument ; Bolsa Familia ; Cash Transfer ; Developing Countries ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Employment ; Fiscal Multiplier ; Informality ; Local Multiplier ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Relative Multiplier ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil's Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with RD 100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10652
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth : An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (61 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Loayza, Norman V Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth: An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model
    Keywords: Commodity Price Fluctuation ; Composition of Government Expenditure ; Development Research Group ; Economic Adjustment and Lending ; Energy ; Energy and Environment ; Energy and Natural Resources ; Energy Demand ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Force Participation Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Reserve ; Oil Sector ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts of price shocks and resource discoveries. In the LTGM-Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), commodity price shocks affect long-term economic growth through physical investment rates. As a large share of resource income typically accrues to the government, the size of the boost to investment in a price boom depends on the government's fiscal rule. Fiscal rules that prioritize public investment, like a Hartwick Rule, generally lead to the largest increases in long-term growth. However, structural surplus rules, which save commodity revenues, can also boost growth if they free up savings for private investment. The response of growth to discoveries of natural resources is similar to the response to price shocks, although discoveries also produce a direct effect on real GDP, in addition to an indirect effect through investment. The LTGM-NR also captures the effect of other (non-resource) growth fundamentals in resource-rich economies, and it is better suited to general growth analysis in these countries than the standard LTGM. However, the LTGM-NR is a supply-side model, and so does not capture the short-run effects of price and discovery shocks that operate through aggregate demand
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9965
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Lives, Livelihoods, and Learning : A Global Perspective on the Well-Being Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit Lives, Livelihoods, and Learning: A Global Perspective on the Well-Being Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Keywords: Communicable Diseases ; Covid ; Education ; Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Learning ; Mortality ; Poverty ; School Health ; Welfare
    Abstract: This study compares the magnitude of national level losses that the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted across three critical dimensions: loss of life, loss of income, and loss of learning. The well-being consequences of excess mortality are expressed in years of life lost, while those of income losses and school closures are expressed in additional years spent in poverty (as measured by national poverty lines), either currently or in the future. While 2020-21 witnessed a global drop in life expectancy and the largest one-year increase in global poverty in many decades, widespread school closures may cause almost twice as large an increase in future poverty. The estimates of well-being loss for the average global citizen include a loss of almost three weeks of life (19 days), an additional two and half weeks spent in poverty in 2020 and 2021 (17 days), and the possibility of an additional month of life in poverty in the future due to school closures (31 days). Well-being losses are not equitably distributed across countries. The typical high-income country suffered more total years of life lost than additional years in poverty, while the opposite holds for the typical low- or middle-income country. Aggregating total losses requires the valuation of a year of life lost vis-a-vis an additional year spent in poverty. If a year of life lost is valued at five or fewer additional years spent in poverty, low-income countries suffered greater total well-being loss than high-income countries. For a wide range of valuations, the greatest well-being losses fell on upper-middle-income countries and countries in the Latin America region. This set of countries suffered the largest mortality costs as well as large losses in learning and sharp increases in poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10728
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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