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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition
    Abstract: Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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