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  • 2005-2009  (1,440)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,440)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Little Green Data Book 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378519
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (232 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: This pocket-sized reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries includes key indicators on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. The volume helps establish a sound base of information to help set priorities and measure progress toward environmental sustainability goals
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7849-6
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Little Data Book on Gender 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378731
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (230 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: This handy pocket guide is a quick reference for users interested in the gender statistics. It presents gender-disaggregated data for more than 200 countries in an easy country-by-country reference on demography, education, health, labor force, political participation and the Millennium Development Goals. The book's summary pages cover regional and income group aggregates
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7872-4
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Monitoring Report 2009 : A Development Emergency (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378601
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (219 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Global Monitoring Report
    Abstract: A Development Emergency: the title of this year's Global Monitoring Report, the sixth in an annual series, could not be more apt. The global economic crisis, the most severe since the Great Depression, is rapidly turning into a human and development crisis. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have the least cushion to withstand events. The crisis, coming on the heels of the food and fuel crises, poses serious threats to their hard-won gains in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. It is pushing millions back into poverty and putting at risk the very survival of many. The prospect of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant. A global crisis must be met with a global response. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. At the same time, strong and urgent actions are needed to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries and help them restore strong growth while protecting the poor. Global Monitoring Report 2009, prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, provides a development perspective on the global economic crisis. It assesses the impact on developing countries, their growth, poverty reduction, and other MDGs. And it sets out priorities for policy response, both by developing countries themselves and by the international community. This report also focuses on the ways in which the private sector can be better mobilized in support of development goals, especially in the aftermath of the crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7859-5
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Little Data Book on Information and Communication Technology 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378588
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (230 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: This new addition to the 'Little DataBook' series presents at-a-glance tables for over 140 economies showing the most recent national data on key indicators of information and communications technology (ICT), including access, quality, affordability, efficiency,sustainability, and applications
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7857-1
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Little Data Book on Private Sector Development 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378564
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (232 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: The Little Data Book on Private Sector Development 2009 is one of a series of pocket-sized books intended to provide a quick reference to development data on different topics. The Little Data Book on Private Sector Development 2009 provides data for more than 20 key indicators on business environment and private sector development in a single page for each of the World Bank member countries and other economies with populations of more than 30,000. These more than 200 country pages are supplemented by aggregate data for regional and income groupings
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7854-0
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Determinants of Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-Credit Groups (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (13 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Deininger, Klaus Determinants of Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-Credit Groups
    Abstract: Despite their potential importance and ease of modification, impacts of monitoring and loan recovery arrangements on micro-credit groups' repayment performance have rarely been studied. Data on 3,350 expired group loans in 300 Indian villages highlight that regular monitoring and audits, high repayment frequency, consumption smoothing support through rice credit, and having group savings deposited with the lender all significantly increase repayment rates. Estimated magnitudes of their effects vastly exceed those of members' socio-economic characteristics. Significantly lower repayment on loans originating in externally provided grant resources suggests that stringent monitoring will be essential for these to have a sustainable impact
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4885
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time : Data and Analysis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time
    Abstract: This paper introduces the updated and expanded version of the Financial Development and Structure Database and presents recent trends in structure and development of financial institutions and markets across countries. The authors add indicators on banking structure and financial globalization. They find a deepening of both financial markets and institutions, a trend concentrated in high-income countries and more pronounced for markets than for banks. Similarly, the recent increase in cross-border lending and debt issues has been concentrated in high-income countries, while low and lower-middle income countries have experienced an increase in remittance flows. Low net interest margins, rising profitability and declining stability in high-income countries’ banking sectors characterize the recent financial sector boom in high income countries leading up to the global financial crisis of 2007
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4943
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Modeling Migration Dynamics in Albania : A Hazard Function Approach (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Azzarri, Carlo Modeling Migration Dynamics in Albania
    Abstract: Since 1990 migration flows from Albania have been massive, relative to the size of the country and its population, but they have also fluctuated over time. This paper presents and discusses various descriptive trends, mainly in graphical form. The data come from the Albanian Living Standards Measurement Survey, 2005 round, and cover the period 1990-2004. The resulting observed trends reflect changing push and pull factors in Albania and the two main host countries, Greece and Italy. The paper also presents a hazard approach to modeling Albanian emigration and return migration. This analysis highlights, among other things, the relevance of networks in Albanian migration dynamics, both to promote emigration and to delay return
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4945
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Mind the Gap? : A Rural-Urban Comparison of Manufacturing Firms (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rijkers, Bob Mind the Gap?
    Abstract: This paper compares and contrasts the performance of rural and urban manufacturing firms in Ethiopia to assess the impact of market integration and the investment climate on firm performance. Rural firms are shown to operate in isolated markets, have poor access to infrastructure and a substantial degree of market power, whereas urban firms operate in better integrated and more competitive markets, where they have much better access to inputs. Fragmentation may also help explain why urban firms are much larger, much more capital intensive and why they produce much more output per worker. Capital intensity and labor productivity are strongly correlated with firm size. Manufacturing technology choice does not vary strongly across space and increasing returns to scale are modest at best, suggesting that rural-urban differences in output per worker are predominantly driven by differences in capital intensity and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The average TFP of firms in rural towns is much higher than that of rural firms in remote areas, but small firms in rural towns are not significantly less productive than small firms in other urban areas. A key finding of the paper is that market fragmentation and investment climate constraints impair the growth of the rural non-farm sector. Whereas urban firms exhibit a healthy dynamism, rural firms are stagnant and lack incentives to invest. Paradoxically, limited local demand due to market fragmentation is the most pressing constraint for rural firms, even though they face more severe supply-side constraints than urban firms. Promoting market towns in Ethiopia might be an effective means of capitalizing on the gains from market integration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4946
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Profitability and Outreach? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Profitability and Outreach?
    Abstract: Regulation allows microfinance institutions to evolve more fully into banks, particularly for institutions aiming to take deposits. But there are potential trade-offs. Complying with regulation and supervision can be costly. The authors examine the implications for the institutions’ profitability and their outreach to small-scale borrowers and women. The tests draw on a new database that combines high-quality financial data on 245 of the world’s largest microfinance institutions with newly-constructed data on their prudential supervision. Ordinary least squares regressions show that supervision is negatively associated with profitability. Controlling for the non-random assignment of supervision via treatment effects and instrumental variables regressions, the analysis finds that supervision is associated with substantially larger average loan sizes and less lending to women than in ordinary least squares regressions, although it is not significantly associated with profitability. The pattern is consistent with the notion that profit-oriented microfinance institutions absorb the cost of supervision by curtailing outreach to market segments that tend to be more costly per dollar lent. By contrast, microfinance institutions that rely on non-commercial sources of funding (for example, donations), and thus are less profit-oriented, do not adjust loan sizes or lend less to women when supervised, but their profitability is significantly reduced
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4948
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Aid, Natural Disasters and the Samaritan's Dilemma (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Raschky, Paul A Aid, Natural Disasters and the Samaritan's Dilemma
    Abstract: This paper discusses the impact of foreign aid on the recipient country's preparedness against natural disasters. The theoretical model shows that foreign aid can have two opposing effects on a country's level of mitigating activities. In order to test the theoretical propositions, the authors analyze the effect of foreign aid dependence on ex-ante risk-management activity proxied by the death toll from major storms, floods and earthquakes occurring worldwide between 1980 and 2002. They find evidence that the crowding-out effect of foreign aid outweighs the preventive effect in the case of storms, while there is mixed evidence in the case of floods and earthquakes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4952
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Substitution and Technological Change Under Carbon Cap and Trade : Lessons From Europe (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Considine, Timothy J Substitution and Technological Change Under Carbon Cap and Trade
    Abstract: The use of carbon-intense fuels by the power sector contributes significantly to the greenhouse gas emissions of most countries. For this reason, the sector is often key to initial efforts to regulate emissions. But how long does it take before new regulatory incentives result in a switch to less carbon intense fuels? This study examines fuel switching in electricity production following the introduction of the European Union’s Emissions Trading System, a cap-and-trade regulatory framework for greenhouse gas emissions. The empirical analysis examines the demand for carbon permits, carbon based fuels, and carbon-free energy for 12 European countries using monthly data on fuel use, prices, and electricity generation. A short-run restricted cost function is estimated in which carbon permits, high-carbon fuels, and low-carbon fuels are variable inputs, conditional on quasi-fixed carbon-free energy production from nuclear, hydro, and renewable energy capacity. The results indicate that prices for permits and fuels affect the composition of inputs in a statistically significant way. Even so, the analysis suggests that the industry’s fuel-switching capabilities are limited in the short run as is the scope for introducing new technologies. This is because of the dominant role that past irreversible investments play in determining power-generating capacity. Moreover, the results suggest that, because the capacity for fuel substitution is limited, the impact of carbon emission limits on electricity prices can be significant if fuel prices increase together with carbon permit prices. The estimates suggest that for every 10 percent rise in carbon and fuel prices, the marginal cost of electric power generation increases by 8 percent in the short run. The European experience points to the importance of starting early down a low-carbon path and of policies that introduce flexibility in how emission reductions are achieved
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4957
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  • 13
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    The Impact of Climate Change On Catastrophe Risk Models : Implications for Catastrophe Risk Markets in Developing Countries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Seo, John The Impact of Climate Change On Catastrophe Risk Models
    Abstract: Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, in conjunction with recently published scientific literature has led risk modelers to revisit their hurricane models and develop climate conditioned hurricane models. This paper discusses these climate conditioned hurricane models and compares their risk estimates to those of base normal hurricane models. This comparison shows that the recent 50 year period of climate change has potentially increased North Atlantic hurricane frequency by 30 percent. However, such an increase in hurricane frequency would result in an increase in risk to human property that is equivalent to less than 10 years’ worth of US coastal property growth. Increases in potential extreme losses require the reinsurance industry to secure additional risk capital for these peak risks, resulting in the short term in lower risk capacity for developing countries. However, reinsurers and investors in catastrophe securities may still have a long-term interest in providing catastrophe coverage in middle and low-income countries as this allows reinsurers and investors to better diversify their catastrophe risk portfolios
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4959
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  • 14
    Online Resource
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    Scaling Up Aid Or Scaling Down : the Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda's Mdgs (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lofgren, Hans Scaling Up Aid Or Scaling Down
    Abstract: Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4958
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stigma and the Take-Up of Social Programs (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ewoudou, Jacques Stigma and the Take-Up of Social Programs
    Abstract: Empirical studies send mixed messages as to the magnitude of social stigma associated with the take-up of social transfers and the impact of stigma on take-up. These mixed signals may be related to the fact that stigma and program participation are likely to be jointly determined. If there is a high (low) degree of participation in a program, stigma is likely to be lower (higher) due at least in part to that high (low) degree of participation. This is because the more eligible persons participate, the less one can single out specific individuals for stigma because they use the program. This note suggests this theoretically with a simple model showing that we may have in an idealized setting two equilibria: one with stigma and zero participation in a social program, and one with perfect participation and no stigma
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4962
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  • 16
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    World Bank Policy Research : A Historical Overview (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dethier, Jean-Jacques World Bank Policy Research
    Abstract: The World Bank is a leading intellectual institution on development. It is a world leader in analytical studies in areas including poverty measurement, delivery of social services, impact evaluation, measurement of development outcomes, international trade and migration. It is also a leader in development data, including the Living Standard Measurement Surveys; the enterprise surveys, and the International Price Comparison Project. World Bank research is resolutely empirical and policy oriented. By both learning from past policies and operations and thinking critically about future policies, research plays a critical role in the formulation of policy advice to developing countries. This paper reviews the intellectual and institutional forces that have shaped research at the World Bank since the latter started lending to developing countries in the early 1950s. It provides an overview of the shifts in development economics that have influenced Bank research and briefly surveys the changes in research organization, structure and approach. The first section, after a short introduction, examines the shifts in positive and normative views about development during the past half century that have influenced Bank thinking. The Bank itself has been an active participant in the rise and fall of long-lived development dogmas about the nature of development; the most appropriate policies and actions for achieving it; and the respective roles of government and markets. The second section examines how the World Bank has adapted its organization to keep abreast of emerging issues and produce relevant policy research of good quality. On the one hand, the Bank has experienced several reorganizations that have affected the research unit(s) as well as its relationship with operational units. On the other hand, the Bank’s research units themselves have been reorganized at several junctures, leading to new priorities and new means of achieving them
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5000
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  • 17
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    The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fomby, Thomas The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters
    Abstract: This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to four types of natural disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast, floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5002
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  • 18
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    Implications for Climate-Change Policy of Research On Cooperation in Social Dilemmas (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Irwin, Timothy Implications for Climate-Change Policy of Research On Cooperation in Social Dilemmas
    Abstract: The problem of climate change seems to be a tragedy of the commons: despite the global benefits of reducing green-house gas emissions, no individual has any incentive to reduce his or her own emissions. Yet many people are making efforts to reduce emissions and putting pressure on businesses and governments to do the same. Although the size of these efforts is unclear, their very existence might seem puzzling. The efforts are consistent, however, with some theoretical and empirical evidence about the extent of cooperation in other social dilemmas. This evidence does not imply that greenhouse-gas emissions will be reduced to desirable levels, but it does suggest that the potential for voluntary cooperation should not be ignored. It also suggests that cooperation can be promoted by (i) allowing cooperators to punish defectors without withdrawing their own cooperation; (ii) publicly emphasizing the social benefits and extent of cooperation and the social norms that require it; and (iii) improving the quantity and timeliness of public information about cooperation and defection
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5006
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  • 19
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    Enhanced Financial Mechanisms for Post 2012 Mitigation (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Figueres, Christiana Enhanced Financial Mechanisms for Post 2012 Mitigation
    Abstract: Despite the many calls to reform the CDM, its conceptual underpinnings are strong and it will most likely survive in the post-2012 climate regime. Some modifications may be considered in the short term to strengthen the effectiveness and transparency of the mechanism without modifying the Marrakesh Accords. In the medium term substantially increased mitigation efforts in developing countries may require a combination of three possible financial mechanisms: the current activity-based CDM albeit improved, a second market mechanism that would seek to improve the long term emission trends of developing countries by promoting broad based emission reduction programs primarily in the private sector, and a third financial mechanism outside of the market which would be an incentive for the adoption of policy changes leading to a low carbon path, but where emission reductions would not be used as international offsets
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5008
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  • 20
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    How Land Title Affects Child Labor? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Moura, Mauricio How Land Title Affects Child Labor?
    Abstract: Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, evaluation of the causal effects of land titling is a difficult task. Since 2004, the Brazilian government, through a program called "Papel Passado," has issued titles to more than 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Another topic in public policy that is crucial for developing economies is child labor force participation. In Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are working full time. This paper examines the direct impact of securing a property title on child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). The key point of this case is that some units participate in the program and others do not. One of them, Jardim Canaã, received land titles in 2007; the other, Jardim DR, given fiscal constraints, will not be part of the program until 2012, and for that reason became the control group. Estimates, generated using the difference-in-difference econometric technique suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease in child labor force participation for the families that received the title compared with the others. These findings are relevant for future policy tools for dealing with informality and how it affects economic growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5010
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  • 21
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    Subnational Credit Ratings : A Comparative Review (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Liu, Lili Subnational Credit Ratings
    Abstract: This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the intergovernmental fiscal system are among the most critical rating criteria. Implicit and contingent liabilities are integral to the rating process. Indirect debt instruments including off-balance-sheet financing create fiscal risks. The ongoing financial crisis has reinforced the rating focus on the management of liquidity, debt structure, and off-balance-sheet liabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5013
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  • 22
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    Credit Constraints and Investment Behavior in Mexico's Rural Economy (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Love, Inessa Credit Constraints and Investment Behavior in Mexico's Rural Economy
    Abstract: This paper uses two recently completed surveys of individual entrepreneurs (farmers and microentrepreneurs) and registered enterprises (agricultural and nonagricultural) operating in Mexico’s rural sector to provide new evidence about the factors influencing the incidence of credit constraints and investment behavior. To measure the incidence of credit constraints, the authors use self-reported information on whether economic agents have a demand for loans, separating formal and informal markets. They define credit constraints as a situation where rural agents report an unsatisfied demand for loans (formal or informal), which originates from rural agents having projects that are too risky or from impediments hindering the ability of rural agents and lenders to reduce information asymmetries. The authors find that the self-reported demand for loans is low. Nevertheless, the incidence of credit constraints is pervasive, especially among individual entrepreneurs. The low use of loans has consequences for the amount of investments that occur in the rural economy, posing a major obstacle to Mexico’s convergence towards its NAFTA partners. The empirical analysis, which includes proxies of business prospects and creditworthiness, shows that improving the availability of loans to credit constrained agents would increase the number of agents making investments and their investment to capital ratios
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5014
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  • 23
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    Lock-In Effects of Road Expansion On CO2 Emissions : Results From A Core-Periphery Model of Beijing (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anas, Alex Lock-In Effects of Road Expansion On CO2 Emissions
    Abstract: In the urban planning literature, it is frequently explicitly asserted or strongly implied that ongoing urban sprawl and decentralization can lead to development patterns that are unsustainable in the long run. One manifestation of such an outcome is that if extensive road investments occur, urban sprawl and decentralization are advanced and locked-in, making subsequent investments in public transit less effective in reducing vehicle kilometers traveled by car, gasoline use and carbon dioxide emissions. Using a simple core-periphery model of Beijing, the authors numerically assess this effect. The analysis confirms that improving the transit travel time in Beijing’s core would reduce the city’s overall carbon dioxide emissions, whereas the opposite would be the case if peripheral road capacity were expanded. This effect is robust to perturbations in the model’s calibrated parameters. In particular, the effect persists for a wide range of assumptions about how location choice depends on travel time and a wide range of assumptions about other aspects of consumer preferences
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5017
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  • 24
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    Unpacking Youth Unemployment in Latin America (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cunningham, Wendy Unpacking Youth Unemployment in Latin America
    Abstract: High youth unemployment rates may be a signal of difficult labor market entry for youth or may reflect high churning. The European and United States literature finds the latter conclusion while the Latin American literature suggests the former. This paper uses panel data to examine whether Latin American youth follow OECD patterns or are, indeed, unique. By decomposing transition matrices into propensity to move and rate of separation matrices and estimating duration matrices, the authors find that Latin American youth do follow the OECD trends: their high unemployment reflects high churning while their duration of unemployment is similar to that of non-youth. The paper also finds that young adults (age 19-24) have higher churning rates than youth; most churning occurs between informal wage employment, unemployment, and out-of-the labor force, even for non-poor youth; and unemployment probabilities are similar for men and women when the analysis control for greater churning by young men. The findings suggest that the "first employment" programs that have become popular in the region are not addressing the key constraints to labor market entry for young people and that more attention should be given to job matching, information, and signaling to improve the efficiency of the churning period
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5022
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  • 25
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    China : Urban Services and Governance (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brixi, Hana China
    Abstract: The study addresses governance challenges in public service delivery in China. It builds on the citizen scorecard survey conducted in five Chinese cities in 2006 to gauge citizens’ experience with public services, and demonstrates the usefulness of citizens’ feedback for policy development and implementation. The survey found that citizens were generally pleased with urban public services, but worried about the associated fees. Compared with the official urban residents, the urban poor and rural migrants in cities reported sharper utilization constraints, lower readiness to complain or pay informal fees, and a much larger income share spent on public services. The reported citizens’ perceptions sometimes diverged from the evidence and pointed to significant information asymmetries. Explaining the survey results, the study reveals problems of inadequacy, inequality and misaligned incentives in public resource allocation. The study presents several successful experiments reducing the dependence on user fees in basic education and primary healthcare. It recognizes that China has been undertaking comprehensive reforms to enhance equity and quality in public service delivery. Such reforms have included measures to strengthen the regulatory, monitoring, and enforcement systems and accountability relationships. In the context of the ongoing reforms, this study highlights the need to: a) hold the provincial governments accountable for public service delivery performance; b) develop effective mechanisms to align public resources and incentives at each level of government with the national priorities; and c) develop proper means to empower the citizens. In this context, the study affirms that the Chinese government is rightly placing reforms in the intergovernmental, administrative, and public finance systems at the top of its agenda
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5030
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  • 26
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    Big Constraints To Small Firms' Growth? : Business Environment and Employment Growth Across Firms (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aterido, Reyes Big Constraints To Small Firms' Growth?
    Abstract: Using data on more than 56,000 enterprises in 90 countries, this paper finds that objective conditions in the business environment vary substantially across firms of different sizes and that there are important non-linearities in their impact on employment growth. The paper focuses on four areas: access to finance, business regulations, corruption, and infrastructure. The results, particularly on the impacts of finance and corruption on growth, depend on whether and how the analysis accounts for the possible endogeneity of the business environment. Controlling for endogeneity revises the finding that small firms benefit most from access to finance, particularly for sources of finance associated with investment and growth. The findings are also sensitive to how “small” is defined. Differentiating micro (less than 10 employees) from other small firms shows that, while small firms can be disadvantaged in such an environment, micro firms tend to be proportionally less affected by a weak business climate - and, on occasion, it can help them to grow. Overall, allowing different size classifications provides insights into the impact of the business environment that are lost in more aggregate analyses
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5032
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  • 27
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    Measuring the Quality of Education and Health Services : the Use of Perception Data From Indonesia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dasgupta, Basab Measuring the Quality of Education and Health Services
    Abstract: Satisfaction surveys offer a potentially convenient and cost-effective means for measuring the quality of services. However, concerns about subjectivity and selection bias impede greater use of satisfaction data. This paper analyzes satisfaction data about health and educational services from the 2006 second round of the Governance and Decentralization Survey in Indonesia to assess whether satisfaction data can serve as reliable indicators of quality, despite dubiously high levels of reported satisfaction. The authors use an expectation disconfirmation model that posits that a user’s satisfaction with a facility improves with the (positive) difference between the actual quality of the facility and the household’s expected standard for quality, which is influenced by its socioeconomic characteristics. The findings show that, after taking into account the expectations of households, reported satisfaction does vary significantly with objective indicators of quality. The analysis also checks for possible selection bias affecting the results by using a two-stage selection model. The model yields policy-relevant insights into the aspects of service delivery that most affect satisfaction, highlights differences across rich and poor districts, and shows that once the role of expectations has been factored in, the variation in user satisfaction can be highly informative for policymakers and researchers alike
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5033
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  • 28
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    Global Inequality and the Global Inequality Extraction Ratio : the Story of the Past Two Centuries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko Global Inequality and the Global Inequality Extraction Ratio
    Abstract: Using social tables, the author makes an estimate of global inequality (inequality among world citizens) in the early 19th century. The analysis shows that the level and composition of global inequality have changed over the past two centuries. The level has increased, reaching a high plateau around the 1950s, and the main determinants of global inequality have become differences in mean country incomes rather than inequalities within nations. The inequality extraction ratio (the percentage of total inequality that was extracted by global elites) has remained surprisingly stable, at around 70 percent of the maximum global Gini, during the past 100 years
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5044
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  • 29
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    Criss-Crossing Globalization : Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Criss-Crossing Globalization
    Abstract: This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. The authors first present a set of stylized facts. Then, using a measure that combines the sophistication of a country’s exports with the average income level of destination countries, they show that the performance of a number of developing countries - notably China, Mexico and South Africa - matches that of much more advanced countries - such as Japan, Spain and the United States. The authors create a new combined dataset on foreign direct investment (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions). The analysis shows that flows of foreign direct investment to developed countries from developing countries - like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa - as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from developed countries - like Japan, Korea and the United States. The authors suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether the benefits of development might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5047
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  • 30
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    Coping With Crises : Why and How To Protect Employment and Earnings (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Paci, Pierella Coping With Crises
    Abstract: Events of the past two years are a reminder that crises are a recurring phenomenon with deep and often protracted impacts on labor markets. This paper examines the challenges inherent in crafting policy responses, with particular attention to developing countries. It focuses on the potential tradeoffs between offsetting adverse short-term impacts and preserving incentives for economic recovery and future growth, and between protecting the most vulnerable and compensating those most immediately impacted. It also highlights how policymakers’ room for maneuver is constrained in crisis times by deteriorating fiscal space, limited institutional capacity, and mounting political pressures. Based on empirical evidence from previous crises, the paper asserts that taking a myopic and reactive approach may be costly and counterproductive. Instead, it advocates a more comprehensive approach, designed to build institutions - such as automatic stabilizers and safety nets - that can deliver a coordinated and coherent policy package. This approach will make crises catalysts for institutional changes and long-run growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5094
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  • 31
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    Missing Women and India's Religious Demography (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Borooah, Vani Missing Women and India's Religious Demography
    Abstract: The authors use recent data from the 2006 National Family Health Survey of India to explore the relationship between religion and demographic behavior. They find that fertility and mortality vary not only between religious groups, but also across caste groups. These groups also differ with respect to socio-economic status. The central finding of this paper is that despite their socio-economic disadvantages, Muslims have higher fertility than their Hindu counterparts and also exhibit lower levels of infant mortality (particularly female infant mortality). This effect is robust to the inclusion of controls for non-religious factors such as socio-economic status and area of residence. This result has important policy implications because it suggests that India's problem of "missing women" may be concentrated in particular groups. The authors conclude that religion and caste play a key role in determining the demographic characteristics of India
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5096
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  • 32
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    Why Have CO2 Emissions Increased in the Transport Sector in Asia ? : Underlying Factors and Policy Options (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (72 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Timilsina, Govinda R Why Have CO2 Emissions Increased in the Transport Sector in Asia ?
    Abstract: Rapidly increasing emissions of carbon dioxide from the transport sector, particularly in urban areas, is a major challenge to sustainable development in developing countries. This study analyzes the factors responsible for transport sector CO2 emissions growth in selected developing Asian countries during 1980-2005. The analysis splits the annual emissions growth into components representing economic development; population growth; shifts in transportation modes; and changes in fuel mix, emission coefficients, and transportation energy intensity. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO2 emissions growth, particularly various fiscal and regulatory policy instruments. The study finds that of the six factors considered, three - economic development, population growth, and transportation energy intensity - are responsible for driving up transport sector CO2 emissions in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In contrast, only economic development and population growth are responsible in the case of China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. CO2 emissions exhibit a downward trend in Mongolia due to decreasing transportation energy intensity. The study also finds that some existing policy instruments help reduce transport sector CO2 emissions, although they were not necessarily targeted for this purpose when introduced
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5098
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  • 33
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    U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China Trade Conflict : Export Growth, Reciprocity, and the International Trading System (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China Trade Conflict
    Abstract: First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper the authors focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. The authors describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. They then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, the authors compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5102
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  • 34
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    Poverty in Latin America : Sources of Welfare Disparities in Ecuador (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys Poverty in Latin America
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the analysis of spatial poverty in Ecuador by deepening the understanding of the constraints faced by the poor in the country through an investigation of the role of portable characteristics (human capital) and geography in explaining welfare. At the national level, the results indicate that these characteristics explain 72 percent of the differences in welfare level between urban and rural areas, while returns to these characteristics account for 28 percent of the difference. Comparing a leading and a lagging region, such as the coast versus the Amazon, the characteristics explain about 90 percent of the welfare differential in urban areas, while the returns explain about 30 percent of the welfare differential in rural areas. Among the characteristics analyzed, education is the most important variable for explaining differences in living conditions between urban and rural areas in Ecuador
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5104
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  • 35
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    Mind the Neighbors : the Impact of Productivity and Location On Firm Turnover (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hallward-Driemeier, Mary Mind the Neighbors
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of firm productivity and local industrial structure on firm entry and exit in Morocco between 1985 and 2001. There is strong evidence of productivity exerting a market-cleansing role. Less productive firms are found to be more likely to exit - and locations with more productive firms attract higher rates of new firm entry. The effect of productivity operates not only in an absolute sense; a firm’s relative productivity or distance to the local sector frontier matters too. First, large productivity gaps are associated with higher rates of exit, while new firms are attracted to locations with small productivity gaps. Second, local competition increases the probability of exit, although it does not encourage entry. Third, there is evidence of scale or agglomeration effects that increase firm turnover. Fourth, measures of sector diversity are not associated with lower turnover. Fifth, the geographic level at which agglomeration and competition effects are defined matters differently for exit than entry. For exit, the provincial measures are strong, while those for communes are weaker. For entry, it is the local productivity at the commune level that is more significant. This implies that competitive pressures are less geographically constrained while the potential benefits of agglomeration and spill-overs are indeed more local
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5106
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  • 36
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    Public Interest Litigation in India : Overreaching Or Underachieving ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gauri, Varun Public Interest Litigation in India
    Abstract: Public interest litigation has historically been an innovative judicial procedure for enhancing the social and economic rights of disadvantaged and marginalized groups in India. In recent years, however, a number of criticisms of public interest litigation have emerged, including concerns related to separation of powers, judicial capacity, and inequality. These criticisms have tended to abstraction, and the sheer number of cases has complicated empirical assessments. This paper finds that public interest litigation cases constitute less than 1 percent of the overall case load. The paper argues that complaints related to concerns having to do with separation of powers are better understood as criticisms of the impact of judicial interventions on sector governance. On the issue of inequality, the analysis finds that win rates for fundamental rights claims are significantly higher when the claimant is from an advantaged social group than when he or she is from a marginalized group, which constitutes a social reversal, both from the original objective of public interest litigation and from the relative win rates in the 1980s
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5109
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  • 37
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    Innovating Development Finance : From Financing Sources to Financial Solutions (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (111 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Girishankar, Navin Innovating Development Finance
    Abstract: As early as 2000, development partners embarked on a decade-long search for "innovative" or alternative sources of Official Development Assistance to help finance achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. For their part, developing countries have sought not only more financial flows but better financial solutions, for example, through partnerships that mobilize private finance for public service delivery, risk mitigation efforts that promote private entry in the productive sectors, and support for carbon trading. This paper offers a framework to organize and understand this heterogeneous mix of innovations in fund-raising and financial solutions for development. It also provides, for the first time, a stocktaking of actual innovations that make up the international landscape and highlights the World Bank Group’s role to date. The stocktaking shows that innovative finance mechanisms have played a more significant role in supporting financial solutions on the ground than in identifying and exploiting "alternative sources of ODA." Innovative fund-raising therefore should be viewed as a complement to - rather than a substitute for - traditional efforts to mobilize official flows, in particular concessional flows. Going forward, innovations need to be tested and evaluated to determine value-added
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5111
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  • 38
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    Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited : the Microdata Show That More Educated Migrants Remit More (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bollard, Albert Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited
    Abstract: Two of the most salient trends surrounding the issue of migration and development over the past two decades are the large rise in remittances, and an increased flow of skilled migration. However, recent literature based on cross-country regressions has claimed that more educated migrants remit less, leading to concerns that further increases in skilled migration will hamper remittance growth. This paper revisits the relationship between education and remitting behavior using microdata from surveys of immigrants in 11 major destination countries. The data show a mixed pattern between education and the likelihood of remitting, and a strong positive relationship between education and the amount remitted conditional on remitting. Combining these intensive and extensive margins gives an overall positive effect of education on the amount remitted. The microdata then allow investigation as to why the more educated remit more. The analysis finds that the higher income earned by migrants, rather than characteristics of their family situations, explains much of the higher remittances
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5113
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  • 39
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    Breaking the Waves ? : Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Barakat, Bilal Breaking the Waves ?
    Abstract: Much of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as "youth bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5114
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  • 40
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    Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ahmed, Syud Amer Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania
    Abstract: Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania’s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5117
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  • 41
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    Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization ?
    Abstract: Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. The authors depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports because of the potential growth consequences. Second, they decompose the impact of an agreement on emissions reductions into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country’s emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7 percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutch disease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If the growth costs of these structural changes are judged to be substantial, the current policy consensus, which favors emissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplemented with financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5121
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  • 42
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    Disparities in Labor Market Performance in the Philippines (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Luo, Xubei Disparities in Labor Market Performance in the Philippines
    Abstract: The Philippine economy has been growing rapidly, at an annual growth rate of 5 percent over the past five years. Such decent growth in gross domestic product, however, did not translate into an increase in household income. Wage income declined in real terms. The poverty headcount increased slightly. The fruits of economic growth were not shared equally across the country. Challenges remain to create more jobs to keep pace with the rapidly growing active population. Using the Philippines Labor Force Survey data (2003-2007), this paper reviews the disparities in labor market performance and examines the contribution of regional and individual characteristics. The results show that real wages declined and disparities widened between the National Capital Region and other islands. The youth, less educated, and women face more challenges in finding employment with a decent salary, other things being equal. Disparities in labor market performance are largely associated with the difference in regional structure and human capital endowment. Individual characteristics account for roughly one-third of the difference in wages between the National Capital Region and other regions; regional structures and other unobservable factors account for two-thirds of the difference
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5124
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  • 43
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    Responding To Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kousky, Carolyn Responding To Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
    Abstract: There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5127
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  • 44
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    Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness : Does Compliance Matter ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness
    Abstract: This paper studies whether compliance with the Basel Core Principles for effective banking supervision is associated with bank soundness. Using data for more than 3,000 banks in 86 countries, the authors find that neither the overall index of compliance with the Basel Core Principles nor the individual components of the index are robustly associated with bank risk measured by Z-scores. The results of the analysis cast doubt on the usefulness of the Basel Core Principles in ensuring bank soundness
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5129
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  • 45
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    Privatization in Development : Some Lessons From Experience (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bourguignon, Francois Privatization in Development
    Abstract: This paper briefly reviews the main theories of state versus private ownership and empirical evidence on the impact of privatization in developing countries (including transition economies). The paper draws some lessons for policy and offers some suggestions on how to assess privatization, at least in countries where there is still scope for it. The paper suggests that although understanding of the efficiency gains of privatization has increased significantly in recent years, there is an important area about which little is known: the distributional effects of privatization. Whether arguing from the standpoint of welfare economics or political economy, distributional effects are critical to the outcome, or the perceived outcome, of privatization. Thus, there is a need to fully evaluate the ex ante and ex post impacts of privatization, the most effective types of regulation and ownership regimes, and the way in which losers, when there are any, can be compensated. This is a need that must be met by academics and development agencies, including the World Bank and regional development banks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5131
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  • 46
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    Explaining High Transport Costs Within Malawi : Bad Roads Or Lack of Trucking Competition? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lall, Somik V Explaining High Transport Costs Within Malawi
    Abstract: What are the main determinants of transport costs: network access or competition among transport providers? The focus in the transport sector has often been on improving the coverage of "hard" infrastructure, whereas in reality the cost of transporting goods is quite sensitive to the extent of competition among transport providers and scale economies in the freight transport industry, creating monopolistic behavior and circular causation between lower transport costs and greater trade and traffic. This paper contributes to the discussion on transport costs in Malawi, providing fresh empirical evidence based on a specially commissioned survey of transport providers and spatial analysis of the country’s infrastructure network. The main finding is that both infrastructure quality and market structure of the trucking industry are important contributors to regional differences in transport costs. The quality of the trunk road network is not a major constraint but differences in the quality of feeder roads connecting villages to the main road network have significant bearing on transport costs. And costs due to poor feeder roads are exacerbated by low volumes of trade between rural locations and market centers. With empty backhauls and journeys covering small distances, only a few transport service providers enter the market, charging disproportionately high prices to cover fixed costs and maximize markups
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5133
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  • 47
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    State Financial Institutions : Mandates, Governance, and Beyond (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rudolph, Heinz P State Financial Institutions
    Abstract: There is no doubt that on average the performance of state financial institutions around the world has been below the lowest expectations. Lack of governance, management skills, regulation, and transparency, and misguided incentives have contributed to discredit these institutions for supporting the development of local financial markets. However, the pro-active role that some state financial institutions have played in the recent crisis in allocating credit to sectors cyclically not attractive for commercial banks has brought back the question of whether some state ownership in the banking system would be preferable. This paper analyzes the experience of four state financial institutions that have performed relatively well in the past: Canada's Business Development Bank, Chile's BancoEstado, South Africa's Development Bank of Southern Africa, and Finland's Finnvera plc. The author finds that these institutions have different checks and balances to mitigate eventual mismanagement of resources. The author also finds that little progress has been made in measuring the policy performance of these institutions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5141
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  • 48
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    Medium-Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Comin, Diego Medium-Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
    Abstract: Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5146
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  • 49
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    Family Systems, Political Systems, and Asia's 'Missing Girls' : the Construction of Son Preference and Its Unraveling (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Das Gupta, Monica Family Systems, Political Systems, and Asia's 'Missing Girls'
    Abstract: Son preference is known to be found in certain types of cultures, that is patrilineal cultures. But what explains the fact that China, South Korea, and Northwest India manifest such extreme child sex ratios compared with other patrilineal societies? This paper argues that what makes these societies unique is that their pre-modern political and administrative systems used patrilineages to organize and administer their citizens. The interplay of culture, state, and political processes generated uniquely rigid patriliny and son preference. The paper also argues that the advent of the modern state in these settings has unraveled the underpinnings of the rigid patrilineal rules, and unleashed a variety of forces that reduce son preference. Firstly, the modern state has powerful tools for incorporating and managing its citizenry, rendering patrilineages a threat rather than an asset for the state. Secondly, the modern state has brought in political, social, and legal reforms aimed to challenge traditional social hierarchies, including the age and gender hierarchies of the kinship system. Thirdly, industrialization and urbanization have ushered in new modes of social organization, which reduce the hold of clans and lineages. Studies of the impact of the media suggest that states can accelerate the resultant decline in son preference, through media efforts to help parents perceive that daughters can now be as valuable as sons
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5148
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  • 50
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    Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kose, M. Ayhan Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration
    Keywords: 1975-2004 ; Finanzmarkt ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; Marktintegration ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Institutionenökonomik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Globalisierung ; Welt
    Abstract: The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality - the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5149
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  • 51
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    International Growth Spillovers, Geography and Infrastructure (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Roberts, Mark International Growth Spillovers, Geography and Infrastructure
    Abstract: There is significant academic evidence that growth in one country tends to have a positive impact on growth in neighboring countries. This paper contributes to this literature by assessing whether growth spillovers tend to vary significantly across world regions and by investigating the contribution of transport and communication infrastructure in promoting neighborhood effects. The study is global, but the main interest is on Sub-Saharan Africa. The authors define neighborhoods both in geographic terms and by membership in the same regional trade association. The analysis finds significant evidence for heterogeneity in growth spillovers, which are strong between OECD countries and essentially absent in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis further finds strong interaction between infrastructure and being a landlocked country. This suggests that growth spillovers from regional "success stories" in Sub-Saharan Africa and other lagging world regions will depend on first strengthening the channels through which such spillovers can spread - most importantly infrastructure endowments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5153
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  • 52
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    The World Bank Annual Report 2009 : Year in Review (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821381472
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Bank Annual Report
    Abstract: The World Bank Annual Report 2009, Year in Review, explores the impact of the global financial and economic crisis in developing countries, and fast-track funding and programs that can help member countries withstand the debacle. In addition, new and ongoing programs and projects in health, climate change, infrastructure, and several other areas are highlighted. A new feature this year is personal-impact stories for each region, relaying the positive effects of World Bank assistance on individuals
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7946-2
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  • 53
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    The Little Data Book 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378489
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (234 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: Now in its eigth edition, this pocket-sized reference on key development data for over 200 countries provides profiles of each country with 54 development indicators about people, environment, economy, technology and infrastructure, trade, and finance
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7847-2
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  • 54
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    Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Services in African Cities Due To Lack of Demand Or Lack of Supply? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wodon, Quentin Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Services in African Cities Due To Lack of Demand Or Lack of Supply?
    Abstract: A majority of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is not connected to electricity and piped water networks, and even in urban areas coverage is low. Lack of network coverage may be due to demand or supply-side factors. Some households may live in areas where access to piped water and electricity is feasible, but may not be able to pay for those services. Other households may be able to afford the services, but may live too far from the electric line or water pipe to have a choice to be connected to it. Given that the policy options for dealing with demand as opposed to supply-side issues are fairly different, it is important to try to measure the contributions of both types of factors in preventing better coverage of infrastructure services in the population. This paper shows how this can be done empirically using household survey data and provides results on the magnitude of both types of factors in explaining the coverage deficit of piped water and electricity services in urban areas for a large sample of African countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4881
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  • 55
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    Dignity Through Discourse : Poverty and the Culture of Deliberation in Indian Village Democracies (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rao, Vijayendra Dignity Through Discourse
    Abstract: Employing a view of culture as a communicative phenomenon involving discursive engagement, which is deeply influenced by social and economic inequalities, the authors argue that the struggle to break free of poverty is as much a cultural process as it is political and economic. In this paper, they analyze important examples of discursive spaces - public meetings in Indian village democracies (gram sabhas), where villagers make important decisions about budgetary allocations for village development and the selection of beneficiaries for anti-poverty programs. They examine 290 transcripts of gram sabhas from South India to demonstrate how they create a culture of civic/political engagement among poor people, and how definitions of poverty and beneficiary-selection criteria are understood and interrogated within them. Through this examination, they highlight the process by which gram sabhas facilitate the acquisition of crucial cultural capabilities such as discursive skills and civic agency by poor and disadvantaged groups. They illustrate how the poor and socially marginalized deploy these discursive skills in a resource-scarce and socially stratified environment in making material and non-material demands in their search for dignity. The intersection of poverty, culture, and deliberative democracy is a topic of broad relevance because it sheds light on cultural processes that can be influenced by public action in a manner that helps improve the voice and agency of the poor
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4924
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  • 56
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    Social Networks Among Indigenous Peoples in Mexico : Social Networks Among Indigenous Peoples in Mexico (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Skoufias, Emmanuel Social Networks Among Indigenous Peoples in Mexico
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which social networks among indigenous peoples have a significant effect on a variety of human capital investment and economic activities, such as school attendance and work among teenage boys and girls, and migration, welfare participation, employment status, occupation and sector of employment among adult males and females. The analysis uses data from the 10 percent population sample of the 2000 Population and Housing Census of Mexico and an empirical strategy that allows taking into account the role of municipality and language group fixed effects. The authors confirm empirically that social network effects play an important role in the economic decisions of indigenous people, especially in rural areas. The analysis also provides evidence that better access to basic services, such as water and electricity, increases the size and strength of network effects in rural areas
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4949
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  • 57
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    What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brenton, Paul What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?
    Abstract: Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4951
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  • 58
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    On the Channel and Type of International Disaster Aid (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Raschky, Paul A On the Channel and Type of International Disaster Aid
    Abstract: Research suggests that a donor country’s decision to provide post-disaster assistance is not only driven by the severity of a disaster and the resulting humanitarian needs in the recipient country, but also by strategic considerations. The authors argue that the identification of the determinants of the size of disaster assistance is a first step in the analysis of the donor’s behavior. Since all aid is not motivated by the same reasons, the evaluation of the donor country’s behavior requires a second step accounting for the type and the channel of aid provided. Using data on international disaster assistance between 2000 and 2007, the analysis examines both the donor countries' decision on the channel (bilateral versus multilateral) and the type of disaster relief (cash versus in-kind). The empirical results suggest that international disaster relief is not as much driven by the needs of the recipient country, but also by strategic interests (for example, oil or trade relationships) of the donor country. Bilateral and cash transfers are used as a vehicle to signal strategic interests, while multilateral and in-kind transfers are chosen to control for misuse in badly governed recipient countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4953
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  • 59
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    Addressing Educational Disparity : Using District Level Education Development Indices for Equitable Resource Allocations in India (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jhingran, Dhir Addressing Educational Disparity
    Abstract: The challenge of development work in the social sector in India today is one of bridging huge disparities across regions of the country, gender and social groups. Unless national and state policies specifically target resources to address these disparities, achieving higher level outcomes in an inclusive manner, which is the real goal for human development in education and health, will be a distant dream. This paper takes up the case of the Indian government’s Elementary Education for All Mission to understand how this flagship program relates investments to spatial and social disparities. For identifying the most deprived districts in terms of educational inputs, outputs and overall development, the authors estimate district level education development indices for 2003-2004. The contribution of the largest investment program is measured by "per child allocations" and expenditures at the state and district levels for 2005-2006. An analysis of comparing the ratio of allocations to expenditures with the ratio of district level indices to sub-dimensional indices shows that there is an apparent disconnect between the "real investment needs" of the districts, reflected in their level of educational development and the actual allocations made on an annual basis. The analysis shows that although all districts received more funds for investing in elementary education programs, the most disadvantaged and needy districts received proportionately more funds, which helped these districts to bridge access and infrastructure gaps and appoint more teachers. Benchmarking sector development by spatial entities helps not only in monitoring the outcomes, but also in targeting planning and funding to reduce disparities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4955
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  • 60
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    The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members : Omnibus Results From A Migration Lottery Program (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members
    Abstract: The impacts of international migration on development in the sending countries, and especially the effects on remaining household members, are increasingly studied. However, comparisons of households in developing countries with and without migrants are complicated by a double-selectivity problem: households self-select into migration, and among households involved in migration, some send a subset of members with the rest remaining while other households migrate en masse. The authors address these selectivity issues using the randomization provided by an immigration ballot under the Pacific Access Category of New Zealand’s immigration policy. They survey applicants to the 2002-05 ballots in Tonga and compare outcomes for the remaining household members of emigrants with those for members of similar households that were unsuccessful in the ballots. The immigration laws determine which household members can accompany the principal migrant, providing an instrument to address the second selectivity issue. Using this natural experiment, the authors examine the myriad impacts that migration has on remaining household members, focussing on labor supply, income, durable assets, financial service usage, diet, and physical and mental health. The analysis uses multiple hypothesis testing procedures to examine which impacts are robust. The findings indicate that the overall impact on households left behind is largely negative. The findings also reveal evidence that both sources of selectivity matter, leading studies that fail to adequately address them to misrepresent the impact of migration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4956
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  • 61
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    The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement : Impact On Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calvo-Pardo, Hector The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
    Abstract: Using detailed data on trade and tariffs from 1992-2007, the authors examine how the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement has affected trade with nonmembers and external tariffs facing nonmembers. First, the paper examines the effect of preferential and external tariff reduction on import growth from ASEAN insiders and outsiders across HS 6-digit industries. The analysis finds no evidence that preferential liberalization has led to lower import growth from nonmembers. Second, it examines the relationship between preferential tariff reduction and MFN tariff reduction. The analysis finds that preferential liberalization tends to precede external tariff liberalization. To examine whether this tariff complementarity is a result of simultaneous decision making, the authors use the scheduled future preferential tariff reductions (agreed to in 1992) as instruments for actual preferential tariff changes after the Asia crisis. The results remain unchanged, suggesting that there is a causal relationship between preferential and MFN tariff reduction. The findings also indicate that external liberalization was relatively sharper in the products where preferences are likely to be most damaging, proving further support for a causal effect. Overall, the results imply that the ASEAN agreement has been a force for broader liberalization
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4960
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    Do International Treaties Promote Development? : the Convention On the Rights of the Child and Basic Immunization (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gauri, Varun Do International Treaties Promote Development?
    Abstract: Little evidence is available on whether changing global rules so as to promote human rights can enhance development outcomes. The Convention on the Rights of the Child was almost universally ratified by the mid-1990s, but it is unclear whether treaty ratification was associated with better or wider protection of children’s rights. This paper uses an instrumental variable approach to investigate whether treaty ratification was associated with stronger effort at the country level on child survival, and particularly with higher rates of immunization coverage. The paper finds that ratification of the Convention on the Rights of the Child was correlated with a subsequent increase in immunization rates, but only in upper middle and high-income countries. Treaties can promote development outcomes, but require institutional support to do so
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4964
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  • 63
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    How Should Fiscal Policy Respond To the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? : Some Pointers From Tajikistan (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brownbridge, Martin How Should Fiscal Policy Respond To the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States?
    Abstract: The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4970
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  • 64
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    Does Financial Openness Lead To Deeper Domestic Financial Markets? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calderon, Cesar Does Financial Openness Lead To Deeper Domestic Financial Markets?
    Abstract: Advanced and emerging market economies have rapidly integrated into international capital markets and this growing globalization of financial markets has led to some important changes in the patterns of saving and investment across the world. The main goal of this paper is to test whether the cross-border asset trade has led to improvements in the intermediation of these savings - that is, foster development of domestic financial markets. The authors have collected annual information on financial market development, financial openness, and other control variables for a sample of 145 countries for the period 1974-2007. Controlling for the likely endogeneity of financial openness, the analysis finds that rising financial openness expands private credit, bank assets, and stock market and private bond market development, and generates efficiency gains in the banking system. However, the impact of financial openness on domestic financial development may depend on the level of institutional quality, the extent of investor protection, and the degree of trade openness. In general, rising financial openness will enlarge the size and activity of financial intermediaries, improve efficiency in the banking system, and contribute to deepen private bond markets in countries with moderate to high levels of institutional quality and investor protection as well as in countries with high trade openness
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4973
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  • 65
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    Lessons from European Union policies for regional development (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Shankar, Raja Lessons from European Union policies for regional development
    Abstract: Regional disparities present an ever present development challenge in most countries, especially those with large geographic areas under their jurisdiction. A neglect of these inequities may create the potential for disunity and, in extreme cases, for disintegration. In view of this, most countries actively pursue policies with a view to helping lagging regions catch up with faster growing regions. These policies have at best a mixed record of success. It is therefore useful to discern what type of policies work and why? In this context learning from the experience of the European Union (EU) may be particularly instructive as, over the years, it has provided significant support to assist poorer regions achieve convergence with the richer regions. This paper reviews the impact of EU policies for regional development to draw lessons of interest to other countries pursuing similar goals. The paper concludes that policies that serve to create an internal common market by creating a level playing field that enables poorer regions to integrate with the broader national and global economies have the best potential to advance regional income convergence. In this context, removal of barriers to trade and factor mobility and providing enhanced access to information and technology to the lagging regions should be main policy priorities for regional development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4977
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  • 66
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    Managing East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatility (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Olaberria, Eduardo Managing East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatility
    Abstract: East Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past several decades, on the other hand, it has made countries more vulnerable to external fluctuations. Although less frequent terms of trade shocks and more stable growth rates of trading partners have helped to reduce volatility in the past, the same external factors are now putting renewed pressure on volatility. The way forward seems therefore to be to counterbalance the external upward pressure on volatility by improving domestic factors. Elements under domestic control that can help countries deal with high volatility include more accountable institutions, better regulated financial markets, and more stable fiscal and monetary policies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4989
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  • 67
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    Tax Compliance Perceptions and Formalization of Small Businesses in South Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Coolidge, Jacqueline Tax Compliance Perceptions and Formalization of Small Businesses in South Africa
    Abstract: This paper is based on large-scale surveys of formal and informal small businesses in South Africa, including questions about their experiences and perceptions about tax compliance, tax morale, and related variables. The survey findings suggest that formalization is more likely to take place in urban areas, involving relatively larger firms, and those who already use proper bookkeeping. Informal firms who said they were likely to register for tax in the near future were more likely than other informal firms to report higher satisfaction with government services, and to believe most businesses pay their taxes. The most-cited advantages of being registered for tax included better access to government services, better access to financing, and better opportunities for growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4992
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  • 68
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    Procurement in Infrastructure : What Does Theory Tell Us? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Estache, Antonio Procurement in Infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure has particular challenges in public procurement, because it is highly complex and customized and often requires economic, political and social considerations from a long time horizon. To deliver public infrastructure services to citizens or taxpayers, there are a series of decisions that governments have to make. The paper provides a minimum package of important economic theories that could guide governments to wise decision-making at each stage. Theory suggests that in general it would be a good option to contract out infrastructure to the private sector under high-powered incentive mechanisms, such as fixed-price contracts. However, this holds under certain conditions. Theory also shows that ownership should be aligned with the ultimate responsibility for or objective of infrastructure provision. Public and private ownership have different advantages and can deal with different problems. It is also shown that it would be a better option to integrate more than one public task (for example, investment and operation) into the same ownership, whether public or private, if they exhibit positive externalities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4994
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  • 69
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    The Power of Information : the Impact of Mobile Phones On Farmers' Welfare in the Philippines (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Labonne, Julien The Power of Information
    Abstract: The authors explore the impact of access to information on poor farmers’ consumption. The analysis combines spatially coded data on mobile phone coverage with household panel data on farmers from some of the poorest areas of the Philippines. Both the ordinary least squares and instrumental variable estimates indicate that purchasing a mobile phone has a large, positive impact on the household-level growth rate of per capita consumption. Estimates range from 11 to 17 percent, depending on the sample and the specification chosen. The authors perform a range of reliability tests, the results of which all suggest that the instruments are valid. They also present evidence consistent with the argument that easier access to information allows farmers to strike better price deals within their existing trading relationships and to make better choices in terms of where they choose to sell their goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4996
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  • 70
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    Who Migrates Overseas and Is It Worth Their While? : An Assessment of Household Survey Data From Bangladesh (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sharma, Manohar Who Migrates Overseas and Is It Worth Their While?
    Abstract: The paper assesses the costs and household level benefits of migrating overseas from Bangladesh. The authors survey households who have had overseas migrants to assess their characteristics compared to non-migrants. They also compute various types of migration and remittance related transaction costs and discuss the channels by which overseas migration is financed, remittances sent and the constraints faced by the poorest. Using the Propensity Score Matching method, the paper finds that overseas migration conveys substantial benefits to families as measured by household consumption, use of modern agricultural inputs, and level of household savings. The authors also offer some possible policy directions to strengthen the returns from migration as well as reduce some of the costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5018
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  • 71
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    When Do Sudden Stops Really Hurt? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Caner, Mehmet When Do Sudden Stops Really Hurt?
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the drivers and consequences of sudden stops of capital flows. It focuses on the impact of external vulnerability on the depth and length of sudden stop crises. The authors analyze 43 developing and developed countries between 1993 and 2006. They find evidence that external vulnerability not only significantly impacts the probability of a sudden stop crisis, but also prolongs the time it takes for growth to revert to its long-term trend once a sudden stop occurs. Interestingly, external vulnerability does not significantly impact the size of the instantaneous output effect in case of a sudden stop but prompts a cumulative output effect through significantly diminishing the speed of adjustment of output to its trend. This finding implies that countries financing a large part of their absorption externally do not suffer more ferocious output losses in a sudden stop crisis, but take longer to adapt afterward and are hence expected to suffer more protracted crises periods. Compared with previous literature, this paper makes three contributions: (i) it extends the country and time coverage relative to datasets that have previously been used to analyze related topics; (ii) it specifically accounts for time-series autocorrelation; and (iii) it provides an analysis of the adjustment path of economic growth after a sudden stop
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5021
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  • 72
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    International Grain Reserves and Other Instruments To Address Volatility in Grain Markets (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wright, Brian International Grain Reserves and Other Instruments To Address Volatility in Grain Markets
    Abstract: In the long view, recent grain price volatility is not anomalous. Wheat, rice, and maize are highly substitutable in the global market for calories, and when aggregate stocks decline to minimal feasible levels, prices become highly sensitive to small shocks, consistent with storage models. In this decade, stocks have declined due to high income growth and biofuels mandates. Recently, shocks including the Australian drought and biofuels demand boosts due to the oil price spike were exacerbated by a sequence of trade restrictions by key exporters beginning in the thin global rice market in the fall of 2007, which turned market anxiety into panic. To protect vulnerable consumers, countries intervened in storage markets and, if they were exporters, to limit trade access. Recognizing these realities, vulnerable countries are building strategic reserves. The associated expense and negative incentive effects can be controlled if reserves have quantitative targets related to the consumption needs of the most vulnerable, with distribution to the latter only in severe emergencies. More-ambitious plans manipulate world prices via buffer stocks or naked short speculation to keep prices consistent with fundamentals. Past interventions of either kind have been expensive, ineffective, and generally short-lived. Further, there is no significant evidence that prices do not reflect fundamentals, including export market access
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5028
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  • 73
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    Smoke in the Water : the Use of Tariff Policy Flexibility in Crises (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foletti, Liliana Smoke in the Water
    Abstract: As the economic crisis deepens and widens, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, to assess the extent to which applied tariff can legally be raised without violating tariff-bound obligations, and compare it with what is economically possible. Second, to examine what has been the protectionist response of individual countries when facing an economic crisis since the creation of the WTO. Finally, to predict how far the protectionist responses will go during the current crisis. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past very little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis. Our predictions for the current crisis are modest tariff hikes in the order of 8 percent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5050
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  • 74
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    FDI Protectionism Is On the Rise (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sauvant, Karl P FDI Protectionism Is On the Rise
    Abstract: Over the past two decades or so, countries have liberalized their FDI regulatory frameworks and have put in place an international investment law regime that provides various protections for international investors. In the past few years, however, there are signs that countries are reevaluating their approach toward such investment. As a result, FDI protectionism is on the rise, with screening of inward M&As becoming more frequent. Typically, this is being done under the guise of "national interest" or similar concepts, often linked to strategic sectors and national champions. While the international investment law regime faces a challenge to find the right balance between the rights and responsibilities of governments and investors, care needs to be taken that the rise of FDI protectionism does not endanger a rules-based approach to FDI. An independent FDI Protectionism Observatory to monitor new protectionist measures and name and shame countries that take them is therefore needed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5052
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  • 75
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    Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification : Evidence from Vietnam (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khandker, Shahidur R Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification
    Abstract: Access to electricity is crucial for economic development and there is a growing body of literature on the impact of rural electrification on development. However, most studies have so far relied on cross-sectional surveys comparing households with and without electricity, which have well known causal attribution problems. This paper is one of the first studies to examine the welfare impacts of households’ rural electrification based on panel surveys conducted in 2002 and 2005 for some 1,100 households in rural Vietnam. The findings indicate that grid electrification has been both extensive (connecting all surveyed communes by 2005) and intensive (connecting almost 80 percent of the surveyed households by 2005). Vietnam is unusual in that once electricity is locally available, both rich and poor households are equally likely to get the connection. The econometric estimations suggest that grid electrification has significant positive impacts on households’ cash income, expenditure, and educational outcomes. The benefits, however, reach a saturation point after prolonged exposure to electricity. Finally, this study recommends investigating the long-term benefits of rural electrification - not just for households, but for the rural economy as a whole
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5057
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  • 76
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    Exchange Rates During the Crisis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Weber, Sebastian Exchange Rates During the Crisis
    Abstract: Nearly two years after the onset of the financial crises, many central banks have brought their policy interest rates down to, or close to zero. Various governments have seen their budget deficits soar. Both policies have affected exchange rates, partly through market expectations. With a majority of exchange rates officially floating, exchange rate movements do not necessarily reflect official decisions as was the case in the 1930s. Yet, also in the 2008 crisis, authorities have directly intervened in the foreign exchange market, sometimes in order to defend a falling currency but in other instances with the aim to limit appreciation pressure, akin of competitive devaluations. This paper documents the exchange rate interventions during the height of the 2008/09 financial crisis and identifies the countries which have particular high incentives to intervene in the foreign exchange market to competitively devalue their currency. While various countries had increased incentives to devalue, we find that direct exchange rate interventions have been rather limited and contagion of devaluation has been restricted to one regionally contained case. However, sharp market-driven exchange rate movements have reshaped competitive positions. It appears that these movements have so far not seriously disrupted global trade. After all, a world crisis is likely to require widespread exchange rate adjustments as different countries are affected in different ways and have different capacities to weather the shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5059
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  • 77
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    Crisis and Protection in the Automotive Industry : A Global Value Chain Perspective (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sturgeon, Timothy J Crisis and Protection in the Automotive Industry
    Abstract: In this paper the authors apply global value chain (GVC) analysis to recent trends in the global automotive industry, with special attention paid to government interventions triggered by the recent economic crisis. The authors first highlight some of the defining characteristics of GVCs in this important industry, especially the unusually strong regional structure of production and sales. National political institutions create pressure for local content, which drives production close to end markets, where it tends to be organized nationally or regionally. They then examine policy reactions to the recent economic crisis, and provide some discussion of the government interventions in the industry. The authors end with a number of policy conclusions that highlight the likely impact of the interventions on the evolution GVCs and the growth of the industry in developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5060
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  • 78
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    Aid for Trade Facilitation (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Helble, Matthias Aid for Trade Facilitation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5064
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  • 79
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    Exchange Rate and Output Fluctuations in the Small Open Economy of Mauritius (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (17 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bastos, Fabiano Exchange Rate and Output Fluctuations in the Small Open Economy of Mauritius
    Abstract: The authors estimate a VAR and compute generalized impulse response to analyze the joint dynamics of four key macroeconomic variables in the small open economy of Mauritius. Results suggest that nominal exchange rate and interest rate have limited ability to impact output growth over the medium-run. Large error bands hinder analysis of the inflation output trade-off, but evidence points to a weak relationship in the short run as well. These findings are used to shed some light into the policy response to the current worldwide economic slowdown affecting Mauritius
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5065
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  • 80
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    Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements With Imperfect Credit Markets (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Agenor, Pierre-Richard Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements With Imperfect Credit Markets
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the cyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms’ effective collateral. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined and a capital channel is introduced through a signaling effect of capital buffers on the cost of bank deposits. The macroeconomic effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) are analyzed, under both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. Factors affecting the procyclicality of each regime (defined in terms of the behavior of the risk premium) are also identified and policy implications are discussed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5067
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  • 81
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    The Pattern of Growth and Poverty Reduction in China (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Montalvo, Jose G The Pattern of Growth and Poverty Reduction in China
    Abstract: China has seen a huge reduction in the incidence of extreme poverty since the economic reforms that started in the late 1970s. Yet, the growth process has been highly uneven across sectors and regions. The paper tests whether the pattern of China´s growth mattered to poverty reduction using a new provincial panel data set constructed for this purpose. The econometric tests support the view that the primary sector (mainly agriculture) has been the main driving force in poverty reduction over the period since 1980. It was the sectoral unevenness in the growth process, rather than its geographic unevenness, that handicapped poverty reduction. Yes, China has had great success in reducing poverty through economic growth, but this happened despite the unevenness in its sectoral pattern of growth. The idea of a trade-off between these sectors in terms of overall progress against poverty in China turns out to be a moot point, given how little evidence there is of any poverty impact of non-primary sector growth, controlling for primary-sector growth. While the non-primary sectors were key drivers of aggregate growth, it was the primary sector that did the heavy lifting against poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5069
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  • 82
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    Pricing Externalities From Passenger Transportation in Mexico City (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Parry, Ian W.H Pricing Externalities From Passenger Transportation in Mexico City
    Abstract: The Mexico City Metropolitan Area has been suffering severely from transportation externalities such as accidents, air pollution, and traffic congestion. This study examines pricing instruments to reduce these externalities using an analytical and numerical model. The study shows that the optimal levels of a gasoline tax and a congestion toll on automobiles could generate social benefits, measured in terms of welfare gain, of US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5071
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  • 83
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    How To Improve Public Health Systems : Lessons From Tamil Nadu (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Das Gupta, Monica How To Improve Public Health Systems
    Abstract: Public health systems in India have weakened since the 1950s, after central decisions to amalgamate the medical and public health services, and to focus public health work largely on single-issue programs - instead of on strengthening public health systems’ broad capacity to reduce exposure to disease. Over time, most state health departments de-prioritized their public health systems. This paper describes how the public health system works in Tamil Nadu, a rare example of a state that chose not to amalgamate its medical and public health services. It describes the key ingredients of the system, which are a separate Directorate of Public Health - staffed by a cadre of professional public health managers with deep firsthand experience of working in both rural and urban areas, and complemented with non-medical specialists-with its own budget, and with legislative underpinning. The authors illustrate how this helps Tamil Nadu to conduct long-term planning to avert outbreaks, manage endemic diseases, prevent disease resurgence, manage disasters and emergencies, and support local bodies to protect public health in rural and urban areas. They also discuss the system’s shortfalls. Tamil Nadu’s public health system is replicable, offering lessons on better management of existing resources. It is also affordable: compared with the national averages, Tamil Nadu spends less per capita on health while achieving far better health outcomes. There is much that other states in India, and other developing countries, can learn from this to revitalize their public health systems and better protect their people’s health
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5073
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  • 84
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    Governance in Health Care Delivery : Raising Performance (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (73 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lewis, Maureen Governance in Health Care Delivery
    Abstract: The impacts of health care investments in developing and transition countries are typically measured by inputs and general health outcomes. Missing from the health agenda are measures of performance that reflect whether health systems are meeting their objectives; public resources are being used appropriately; and the priorities of governments are being implemented. This paper suggests that good governance is central to raising performance in health care delivery. Crucial to high performance are standards, information, incentives and accountability. This paper provides a definition of good governance in health and a framework for thinking about governance issues as a way of improving performance in the health sector. Performance indicators that offer the potential for tracking relative health performance are proposed, and provide the context for the discussion of good governance in health service delivery in the areas of budget and resource management, individual provider performance, health facility performance, informal payments, and corruption perceptions. What we do and do not know about effective solutions to advance good governance and performance in health is presented for each area, drawing on existing research and documented experiences
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5074
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  • 85
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    The Power of Exports (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William The Power of Exports
    Abstract: The authors systematically document remarkably high degrees of concentration in manufacturing exports for a sample of 151 countries over a range of 3,000 products. For every country manufacturing exports are dominated by a few "big hits" which account for most of the export value and where the "hit" includes both finding the right product and finding the right market. Higher export volumes are associated with higher degrees of concentration, after controlling for the number of destinations a country penetrates. This further highlights the importance of big hits. The distribution of exports closely follows a power law, especially in the upper tail. These findings do not support a "picking winners" policy for export development; the power law characterization implies that the chance of picking a winner diminishes exponentially with the degree of success. Moreover, given the size of the economy, developing countries are more exposed to demand shocks than rich ones, which further lowers the benefits from trying to pick winners
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5081
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  • 86
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    Microfinance Tradeoffs : Regulation, Competition, and Financing (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Microfinance Tradeoffs
    Abstract: This paper describes important trade-offs that microfinance practitioners, donors, and regulators navigate. Drawing evidence from large, global surveys of microfinance institutions, the authors find a basic tension between meeting social goals and maximizing financial performance. For example, non-profit microfinance institutions make far smaller loans on average and serve more women as a fraction of customers than do commercialized microfinance banks, but their costs per dollar lent are also much higher. Potential trade-offs therefore arise when selecting contracting mechanisms, level of commercialization, rigor of regulation, and the extent of competition. Meaningful interventions in microfinance will require making deliberate choices - and thus embracing and weighing tradeoffs carefully
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5086
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  • 87
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    Designing Cost-Effective Cash Transfer Programs To Boost Schooling Among Young Women in Sub-Saharan Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Baird, Sarah Designing Cost-Effective Cash Transfer Programs To Boost Schooling Among Young Women in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: As of 2007, 29 developing countries had some type of conditional cash transfer program in place, with many others planning or piloting one. However, the evidence base needed by a government to decide how to design a new conditional cash transfer program is severely limited in a number of critical dimensions. This paper presents one-year schooling impacts from a conditional cash transfer experiment among teenage girls and young women in Malawi, which was designed to address these shortcomings: conditionality status, size of separate transfers to the schoolgirl and the parent, and village-level saturation of treatment were all independently randomized. The authors find that the program had large impacts on school attendance: the re-enrollment rate among those who had already dropped out of school before the start of the program increased by two and a half times and the dropout rate among those in school at baseline decreased from 11 to 6 percent. These impacts were, on average, similar in the conditional and the unconditional treatment arms. Although most schooling outcomes examined here were unresponsive to variation in the size of the transfer to the parents, higher transfers given directly to the schoolgirls were associated with significantly improved school attendance and progress - but only if the transfers were conditional on school attendance. There were no spillover effects within treatment communities after the first year of program implementation. Policymakers looking to design cost-effective cash transfer programs targeted toward young women should note the relative insensitivity of these short-term program impacts with respect to conditionality and total transfer size
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5090
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  • 88
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    Social Impacts of Climate Change in Peru : A District Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent and Future Climate Change On Human Development and Inequality (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andersen, Lykke E Social Impacts of Climate Change in Peru
    Abstract: This paper uses district level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income and life expectancy in Peru. The analysis finds that both incomes and life expectancy show hump-shaped relationships, with optimal average annual temperatures around 18-20ºC. These estimated relationships were used to simulate the likely effects of both past (1958-2008) and future (2008-2058) climate change. At the aggregate level, future climate change in Peru is estimated to cause a small reduction in average life expectancy of about 0.2 years. This average, however, hides much larger losses in the already hot areas as well as substantial gains in currently cold areas. Similarly, the average impact on incomes is a modest reduction of 2.3 percent, but with some districts experiencing losses of up to 20 percent and others gains of up to 13 percent. Future climate change is estimated to cause an increase in poverty (all other things equal), but to have no significant effect on the distribution of incomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5091
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  • 89
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    A Polycentric Approach for Coping With Climate Change (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ostrom, Elinor A Polycentric Approach for Coping With Climate Change
    Abstract: This paper proposes an alternative approach to addressing the complex problems of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The author, who won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, argues that single policies adopted only at a global scale are unlikely to generate sufficient trust among citizens and firms so that collective action can take place in a comprehensive and transparent manner that will effectively reduce global warming. Furthermore, simply recommending a single governmental unit to solve global collective action problems is inherently weak because of free-rider problems. For example, the Carbon Development Mechanism (CDM) can be ‘gamed’ in ways that hike up prices of natural resources and in some cases can lead to further natural resource exploitation. Some flaws are also noticeable in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) program. Both the CDM and REDD are vulnerable to the free-rider problem. As an alternative, the paper proposes a polycentric approach at various levels with active oversight of local, regional, and national stakeholders. Efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are a classic collective action problem that is best addressed at multiple scales and levels. Given the slowness and conflict involved in achieving a global solution to climate change, recognizing the potential for building a more effective way of reducing green house gas emissions at multiple levels is an important step forward. A polycentric approach has the main advantage of encouraging experimental efforts at multiple levels, leading to the development of methods for assessing the benefits and costs of particular strategies adopted in one type of ecosystem and compared to results obtained in other ecosystems. Building a strong commitment to find ways of reducing individual emissions is an important element for coping with this problem, and having others also take responsibility can be more effectively undertaken in small- to medium-scale governance units that are linked together through information networks and monitoring at all levels. This paper was prepared as a background paper for the 2010 World Development Report on Climate Change
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5095
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  • 90
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    Constraints To Growth in Malawi (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lea, Nicholas Constraints To Growth in Malawi
    Abstract: This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi’s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi’s growth story, which directly increases the strength of the export multiplier. The most pressing constraint to growth in Malawi continues to be the regime of exchange rate management. Despite good progress, there is compelling evidence that the rate is still substantially overvalued. Furthermore, it is also likely that the inflow of foreign aid - in excess of 50 percent of exports -contributes to the overvaluation through its large component of recurrent expenditures
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5097
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  • 91
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    Impacts of Policy Instruments To Reduce Congestion and Emissions From Urban Transportation : the Case of Sao Paulo, Brazil (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anas, Alex Impacts of Policy Instruments To Reduce Congestion and Emissions From Urban Transportation
    Abstract: This study examines impacts on net social benefits or economic welfare of alternative policy instruments for reducing traffic congestion and atmospheric emissions in São Paulo, Brazil. The study shows that expanding road networks, subsidizing public transit, and improving automobile fuel economy may not be as effective as suggested by economic theories because these policies could cause significant rebound effects. Although pricing instruments such as congestion tolls and fuel taxes would certainly reduce congestion and emissions, the optimal level of these instruments would steeply increase the monetary cost of travel per trip and are therefore politically difficult to implement. However, a noticeable finding is that even smaller tolls, which are more likely to be politically acceptable, have substantial benefits in terms of reducing congestion and emissions. Among the various policy instruments examined in the study, the most socially preferable policy option for São Paulo would be to introduce a mix of congestion toll and fuel taxes on automobiles and use the revenues to improve public transit systems
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5099
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  • 92
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    Korea and the Bics (Brazil, India and China) : Catching Up Experiences (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chandra, V Korea and the Bics (Brazil, India and China)
    Abstract: This paper tests a neo-Schumpeterian model with industry-level data to analyze how Brazil, India, and China are catching up with South Korea’s technological frontier in a globalized world. The paper validates Aghion et al.’s inverted-U hypothesis that industries that are closer to the technological frontier innovate to escape competition while longer distances discourage innovating. It suggests that for effective catching up, distance-shortening (or innovation-enhancing) policies may be a necessary complement to liberalization. South Korea and China combined a variety of distance-shortening policies with financial subsidies to promote high tech industries and an export-led growth strategy. Post-liberalization, they leveraged swift competition to spur catch-up. In comparison, Brazil, which was as rich as South Korea, and India, which was as rich as China in 1980, are catching up more slowly. Import-substitution industrialization strategies saddled Brazil and India with a large anti-export bias, and unfocused attention to innovation-enhancing policies dampened global competitiveness. Post liberalization, many of their industries were too far behind the technological frontier to effectively benefit from competition. The catch-up experiences of Brazil, India, and China with South Korea illustrate that distance from the technological frontier matters and that the design of country-specific distance- shortening policies can be an important complement to trade liberalization in promoting catching up with richer countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5101
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  • 93
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    Left Behind To Farm ? : Women's Labor Re-Allocation in Rural China (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mu, Ren Left Behind To Farm ?
    Abstract: The transformation of work during China’s rapid economic development is associated with a substantial but little noticed re-allocation of traditional farm labor among women, with some doing much less and some much more. This paper studies how the work, time allocation, and health of non-migrant women are affected by the out-migration of others in their household. The analysis finds that the women left behind are doing more farm work than would have otherwise been the case. There is also evidence that this is a persistent effect, and not just temporary re-allocation. For some types of women (notably older women), the labor re-allocation response comes out of their leisure
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5107
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  • 94
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    How Do Local-Level Legal Institutions Promote Development ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gauri, Varun How Do Local-Level Legal Institutions Promote Development ?
    Abstract: This paper develops a framework and some hypotheses regarding the impact of local-level, informal legal institutions on three economic outcomes: aggregate growth, inequality, and human capabilities. It presents a set of stylized differences between formal and informal legal justice systems, identifies the pathways through which formal systems promote economic outcomes, reflects on what the stylized differences mean for the potential impact of informal legal institutions on economic outcomes, and looks at extant case studies to examine the plausibility of the arguments presented. The paper concludes that local-level, informal legal institutions can support social substitutes for the enforcement of contracts, although these substitutes tend to be limited in range and scale; they are flexible and could conceivably be adapted to serve the interests of the poor and marginalized if supportive organizational and social resources could be brought to support the legal claims of the disempowered; and they are more likely to support personal integrity rights than the positive liberties that are also constitutive of development as freedom
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5108
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  • 95
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    The Association Between Remarriage and HIV Infection : Evidence From National HIV Surveys in Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Walque, Damien The Association Between Remarriage and HIV Infection
    Abstract: The literature shows that divorced, separated, and widowed individuals in Africa are at significantly increased risk for HIV. Using nationally representative data from 13 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, this paper confirms that formerly married individuals are at significantly higher risk for HIV. The study goes further by examining individuals who have remarried. The results show that remarried individuals form a large portion of the population - usually larger than the divorced, separated, or widowed - and that they also have higher than average HIV prevalence. This large number of high-risk remarried individuals is an important source of vulnerability and further infection that needs to be acknowledged and taken into account in prevention strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5118
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  • 96
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    Female-Owned Firms in Latin America : Characteristics, Performance, and Obstacles To Growth (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bruhn, Miriam Female-Owned Firms in Latin America
    Abstract: This paper examines the characteristics and performance of female-owned firms in Latin America. Data from firm surveys show that female-owned firms tend to be smaller than male-owned firms in terms of employees, sales, costs, and physical capital. Female-owned firms also have lower profits than male-owned firms, but for larger firms this difference disappears after controlling for labor and capital inputs. Medium-size and large female-owned firms are as productive as male-owned firms of the same size, although micro and small female-owned firms are less productive than male-owned firms. There is no evidence that the differences between female and male-owned firms are due to differences in access to finance or regulatory burdens. However, this paper finds a negative correlation between child care and household obligations and female-owned firm size and performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5122
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  • 97
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    Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy
    Abstract: There is growing clamor in industrial countries for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. The authors confirm the findings of other research that unilateral emissions cuts by industrial countries will have minimal carbon leakage effects. However, output and exports of energy-intensive manufactures are projected to decline potentially creating pressure for trade action. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content in domestic production. Their quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China’s manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low and middle income countries by 8 per cent; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production, especially if applied to both imports and exports, would broadly address the competitiveness concerns of producers in high income countries and less seriously damage developing country trade
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5123
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  • 98
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    Export Promotion Agencies Revisited (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies Revisited
    Abstract: The number of national export promotion agencies has tripled over the past two decades. Although more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. The agencies were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's export promotion agencies and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. The results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. The identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as export promotion agencies are concerned, small is beautiful
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5125
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  • 99
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    Regionalizing Telecommunications Reform in West Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kessides, Ioannis N Regionalizing Telecommunications Reform in West Africa
    Abstract: In recent years, there has been an increasing recognition that significant welfare gains could be realized through deep forms of regional integration which entail harmonization of legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks. Reforms that reduce cross-border transaction costs and improve the performance of “backbone” infrastructure services are arguably even more important for the creation of an open, unified regional economic space than trade policy reforms narrowly defined. This paper assesses the potential gains from regionalized telecommunications policy in West Africa. To this end, the paper: (i) discusses how regional cooperation can overcome national limits in technical expertise, enhance the capacity of nations credibly to commit to stable regulatory policy, and ultimately facilitate infrastructure investment in the region; (ii) identifies trade-distorting regulations that inhibit opportunities for regional trade and economic development, and so are good candidates for regional trade negotiations to reduce indirect trade barriers; and (iii) describes substantive elements of a harmonized regional regulatory policy that can deliver immediate performance benefits
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5126
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  • 100
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    Time As A Determinant of Comparative Advantage (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Li, Yue Time As A Determinant of Comparative Advantage
    Abstract: It is assumed that added time to export adds cost to and lowers the volume of trade. Time delays may also affect the composition of trade and can disproportionately reduce trade in time-sensitive goods. This paper investigates the validity of these propositions using the World Bank Doing Business database and Enterprise Surveys for 64 developing countries. The authors find that in countries where there is longer time needed to export firms in time-sensitive industries are less likely to become exporters. Moreover, firms that do export have lower export intensities. Their findings imply that time to export is a significant determinant of comparative advantage. For example, consider two industries that have the same export probability and intensity - but differ in time-sensitivity by one standard deviation. Action taken to cut time to export by 50 percent for one industry opens a 6 percentage point difference between the export probabilities of the two industries. In addition, steps to cut time delays increase export intensities by 1.9 percentage points. This impact applies to industries with different productivity levels - and those in developing countries with different income levels
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5128
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