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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Weakness in Investment Growth : Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (75 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7990
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
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    Online Resource
    A Decade After the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well. However, following a short-lived initial rebound in activity in 2010, the global economy and, especially, emerging market and developing economies, have suffered a decade of weak growth despite unprecedented monetary policy accommodation and several rounds of fiscal stimulus in major economies. A Decade After the Global Recession provides the first comprehensive stock-taking of the decade since the global recession for emerging market and developing economies. It reviews the experience of emerging market and developing economies during and after the recession. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and be prepared should another global downturn occur
    DOI: 10.1596/32641
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
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    Online Resource
    A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space grouped into four categories: debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability, external and private sector debt related risks as potential causes of contingent liabilities, and market access. The authors illustrate potential applications of the database by analyzing developments in fiscal space across three time frames: over the past quarter century; during financial crises; and during oil price plunges. The main results are as follows. First, fiscal space had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mid-2000s. In contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8157
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kose, M. Ayhan Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration
    Keywords: 1975-2004 ; Finanzmarkt ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; Marktintegration ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Institutionenökonomik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Globalisierung ; Welt
    Abstract: The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality - the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5149
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Global recessions (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9172
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Global Recessions
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global gross domestic product contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies, as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recessions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9172
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Can this time be different? : policy options in times of rising debt (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9178
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post-crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt-related transactions are transparently reported
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9178
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Negative Interest Rate Policies : Sources and Implications (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arteta, Carlos Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
    Abstract: Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. It reports four main results. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRP are conceptually analogous to those under conventional monetary policy but NIRP present complications that could limit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introduction of NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolved broadly as implied by the standard transmission channels. Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability, particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero or if NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time. Potential adverse consequences include the erosion of profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries, and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been no significant evidence that financial stability has been compromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implications of NIRP for emerging market and developing economies are mostly similar to those of other unconventional monetary policy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policy maker's toolkit but, given their domestic and global implications, these policies need to be handled with care to secure their benefits while mitigating risks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7791
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Abstract: This paper presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. These economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008-09, which was then used for stimulus. This reflects a more general trend over the past three decades, where availability of fiscal space has been associated with increasingly countercyclical (or less procyclical) fiscal policy. However, fiscal space has shrunk since the Great Recession and has not returned to pre-crisis levels. Emerging and developing economies face downside risks to growth and prospects of rising financing costs. In the event that these cause a sharp cyclical slowdown, policy makers may need to employ fiscal policy as a possible tool for stimulus. An important prerequisite for fiscal policy to be effective is that these economies have the necessary fiscal space to employ countercyclical policies. Over the medium-term, credible and well-designed institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and medium-term expenditure frameworks, can help build fiscal space and strengthen policy outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7725
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions of governments using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model and a large data-set of advanced and developing economies. The methodology permits tracing the endogenous relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions while maintaining enough degrees of freedom to draw sharp inferences. The paper reports three major results. First, the fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions: the multipliers tend to be larger when fiscal positions are strong (i.e. when government debt and deficits are low) than weak. For instance, the long-run multiplier can be as large as unity when the fiscal position is strong, while it can be negative when the fiscal position is weak. Second, these effects are separate and distinct from the impact of the business cycle on the fiscal multiplier. Third, the state-dependent effects of the fiscal position on multipliers is attributable to two factors: an interest rate channel through which higher borrowing costs, due to investors' increased perception of credit risks when stimulus is implemented from a weak initial fiscal position, crowd out private investment; and a Ricardian channel through which households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7724
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? : International Evidence (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Islamaj, Ergys How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? : International Evidence
    Abstract: This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to fluctuations in income. The paper examines the empirical validity of this prediction using an array of indicators of financial integration for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1960-2011. Two main results are reported. First, the sensitivity of consumption to income has declined over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. The decline has been more pronounced in advanced economies than in developing ones. Second, the regression analysis indicates that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with a lower sensitivity of consumption to income. This finding is robust to the use of a wide range of empirical specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls, such as interest rates and outcome-based measures of financial integration. The paper also discusses other potential sources of the temporal changes in the sensitivity of consumption to income
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7659
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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