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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lakatos, Csilla China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation-economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption-and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016-30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7666
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Arm's-Length Trade : A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lakatos, Csilla Arm's-Length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness
    Abstract: Trade growth has slowed sharply since the global financial crisis. U.S. trade data highlights that arm's-length trade-trade between unaffiliated firms-accounts disproportionately for the overall post-crisis trade slowdown. This is partly because arm's-length trade depends more heavily than intra-firm trade on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), where output growth has slowed sharply from elevated pre-crisis rates, and on sectors with rapid pre-crisis growth that boosted arm's-length trade pre-crisis but that have languished post-crisis. Compounding such compositional effects, arm's-length trade is also more sensitive to changes in demand and real exchange rates. For example, the income elasticity of arm's-length exports is about one-fifth higher than that of intra-firm exports. Hence, post-crisis global growth weakness has weighed more on arm's-length trade than on intra-firm trade. Unaffiliated firms may also have been hindered more than multinational firms by constrained access to finance during the crisis, heightened policy uncertainty, and their typical firm-level characteristics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8144
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Global Role of the U.S. Economy : Linkages, Policies and Spillovers (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, Ayhan The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of the United States in the global economy and examines the extent of global spillovers from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world's largest, have effects far beyond its shores. A surge in U.S. growth could provide a significant boost to the global economy. Tightening U.S. financial conditions-whether due to contractionary U.S. monetary policy or other reasons-could reverberate across global financial markets, with adverse effects on some emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on external financing. In addition, lingering uncertainty about the course of U.S. economic policy could have an appreciably negative effect on global growth prospects. While the United States plays a critical role in the world economy, activity in the rest of the world is also important for the United States
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7962
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ianchovichina, Elena Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran: Global Effects and Strategic Responses
    Abstract: This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7549
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Traders' dilemma : developing countries' response to trade disputes (2018)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8640
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Devarajan, Shantayanan Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response To Trade Disputes
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: If trade tensions between the United States and certain trading partners escalate into a full-blown trade war, what should developing countries do? Using a global, general-equilibrium model, this paper first simulates the effects of an increase in U.S. tariffs on imports from all regions to about 30 percent (the average non-Most Favored Nation tariff currently applied to imports from Cuba and the Democratic Republic of Korea) and retaliation in kind by major trading partners-the European Union, China, Mexico, Canada, and Japan. The paper then considers four possible responses by developing countries to this trade war: (i) join the trade war; (ii) do nothing; (iii) pursue regional trade agreements (RTAs) with all regions outside the United States; and (iv) option (iii) and unilaterally liberalize tariffs on imports from the United States. The results show that joining the trade war is the worst option for developing countries (twice as bad as doing nothing), while forming RTAs with non-U.S. regions and liberalizing tariffs on U.S. imports ("turning the other cheek") is the best. The reason is that a trade war between the United States and its major trading partners creates opportunities for developing countries to increase their exports to these markets. Liberalizing tariffs increases developing countries' competitiveness, enabling them to capitalize on these opportunities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8640
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Building a Dataset for Non-Tariff Measures and its Usage : The Case of Indonesia and Applicability for Other Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
    Keywords: Data Usage ; Dataset ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Non-Tariff Measures ; NTMS ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: As import tariffs have been declining over the past decades, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become the most frequently used measures in trade policy. The increasing use of NTMs in global trade has highlighted the need for timely, high frequency and accurate data in order to better understand the implications that NTMs have on products, firms and the economy. This manual describes the first high-frequency panel dataset built by the World Bank on the universe of NTMs applied by a country, id est Indonesia. The manual includes a comprehensive overview of the purpose, building procedures and usage of the data for Indonesia. The dataset expands on and improves on existing data on Indonesian NTMs collected by other institutions (UNCTAD and ERIA) by covering a broader source base, customizing the data, and by increasing the frequency of updates. By documenting the data collection and transformation process, the manual hopes to facilitate the construction of similar datasets in other countries
    DOI: 10.1596/39463
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: There is increasing evide ...
    DOI: 10.1596/26792
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Trading Towards Sustainability : The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia's Green Transformation (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Environment ; Green Transformation ; International Economics and Trade ; Plastic Substitutes ; Sustainability ; Trade ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Climate change - and efforts to mitigate and adapt to it - will affect global flows of trade and Indonesia's ability to transition to a more environmentally sustainable economy on its path to become a high-income economy is, therefore, interlinked with trade policy. Environmental policy stringency (EPS) is increasing around the globe - a crucial challenge lies in harmonizing these with sustained economic growth, yet both goals can be reached. Although trade flows facilitate emissions, they are also a critical part of the solution, including through trade in environmental goods (EGs) and plastic substitutes - with important economic spillovers. This report provides a detailed analysis of the role of trade and trade policy on EGs and plastic substitutes in Indonesia's green transition. Chapter one describes the need for, and urgency of, this transition, by looking at the carbon intensity of Indonesia's trade, the impacts of environmental policies of Indonesia and key trading partners, and the roles of EGs. Chapter two examines where Indonesia stands on the level of trade in EGs and plastic substitutes and the competitiveness of EGs trade. Chapter three explores trade agreements and tariffs and simulates potential impacts of tariff reforms - including through multilateral actions. Chapter four examines what non-tariff measures (NTMs) apply on the products including inputs of firms exporting EGs and assesses which NTMs may be costly. Finally, chapter five concludes with policy recommendations
    DOI: 10.1596/40925
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8724
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Laborde, David Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the event of large swings in world food prices, countries often intervene to dampen the impact of international food price spikes on domestic prices and to lessen the burden of adjustment on vulnerable population groups. While individual countries can succeed at insulating their domestic markets from short-term fluctuations in global food prices, the collective intervention of many countries may exacerbate the volatility of world prices. Insulating policies introduced during the 2010-11 food price spike may have accounted for 40 percent of the increase in the world price of wheat and one-quarter of the increase in the world price of maize. Combined with government policy responses, the 2010-11 food price spike tipped 8.3 million people (nearly 1 percent of the world's poor) into poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8724
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trading in Green : Policy Notes on Climate Change and Trade in Indonesia (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Green Goods ; Green Technologies ; Green Trade ; International Economics and Trade ; Low-Carbon
    Abstract: Although Indonesia's economy has diversified over the past decades, natural resource extraction remains a key sector for both the domestic economy as well as international trade. Indonesia's ability to diversify away from primary products, reduce carbon emissions, adapt to climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy is strongly interlinked with trade and trade policy. To position itself to benefit from the global transition to a non-carbon economy, Indonesia needs to adapt to new sources of international demand, adjust its existing productive capabilities, and cultivate new green industries. This note analyzes the carbon content of Indonesia's trade flows
    DOI: 10.1596/41156
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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