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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (717)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing  (1)
  • Bielefeld : transcript
  • Poverty Reduction  (718)
  • 1
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    Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment : The Case of the West Bank and Gaza (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10687
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  • 2
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    Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error : Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10675
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  • 3
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    Labor Market Participation and Employment Choice in Ghana : Do Individual Personality Traits and Gender Role Attitudes Matter? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo Labor Market Participation and Employment Choice in Ghana: Do Individual Personality Traits and Gender Role Attitudes Matter?
    Keywords: Education ; Employment Outcome ; Employment Preference ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Gender Role Attitudes ; Informal Sector Measurement Study ; Labor Markets ; Multi-Stage Sampling ; Personality Traits ; Poverty Reduction ; Secondary Education Equity ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: In addition to the conventional determinants of labor market participation and the choice between wage employment and self-employment, there is a growing interest of the significance of gender role attitudes and personality traits. This study uses data from the 2022 Ghana Informal Sector Measurement Study to investigate the influence of these factors on employment outcomes in the Northern and Ashanti regions of Ghana. The findings are based on a series of analyses, including descriptive, multinomial logistic, and linear probability model regressions. The empirical results show the critical role played by both gender role attitudes and personality traits in shaping individuals' decisions on labor market participation and employment choices. Notably, personality traits emerge as significant drivers of observed employment outcomes. However, the impact of these personality traits is often mitigated or even reversed in the presence of heightened traditionalism. Furthermore, the gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that possessing at least a secondary education level is a pivotal factor in the selection of men into formal employment, whereas this criterion holds less significance for women. Conversely, once the decision to participate in the labor market has been made, having at least a secondary education becomes relevant for securing wage employment, regardless of an individual's gender
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10664
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  • 4
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    Little Nomads : Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cortina Toro, Magdalena Little Nomads: Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children
    Keywords: Child Migration ; Education Services ; Migration ; Migration Influence on Children ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main findings from 110 studies produced between 1990 and 2023, focusing on the impact of migration on various child groups affected through the migration path, including left-behind, immigrant (including voluntary and forced), and native children. The findings reveal that migration's influence on children's outcomes is complex and context- dependent, and it is dramatically influenced by household demographics and public policies. Key findings include the following: (i) left-behind children benefit from remittances but experience dramatic declines in their cognitive and non-cognitive development due to parental absence; (ii) immigrant children generally fare better than those in their origin countries but still underperform compared to native children in host countries; and (iii) the impacts of migration on native children is largely dependent on the adjustment of public service supply to the increased demand for public services. In cases where education services expand to meet rising demand, the effect on native children can be minimal or even positive. The paper emphasizes the need for more experimental or quasi-experimental research examining the effectiveness of programs supporting migrant and minor host children and calls for longitudinal data collection for better understanding the challenges and needs of migrant children, particularly in developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10686
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  • 5
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    Fiscal Incidence on the Island : Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10678
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  • 6
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    Missing Evidence : Tracking Academic Data Use around the World (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10673
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  • 7
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    The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cho, Yoonyoung The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Depression and Pandemic ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Mental Health ; Mental Health Crisis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When it comes to mental health, do social protection programs matter more in times of crisis Using panel data from the Philippines around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study compares depression rates among beneficiaries of an existing conditional cash transfer program to those of non-beneficiaries of similar socioeconomic status. Depression rates were almost identical for the two groups in late 2019, but significantly lower for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries by July 2020, after the initiation of strict quarantine measures and a large emergency cash transfer program. One interpretation of the increased importance of the conditional cash transfer program during the pandemic is that these transfers have larger protective effects in times of vulnerability. Another possible reason is that the existing infrastructure of the program, by allowing for more timely distribution of the emergency cash, enhanced the effectiveness of the government's pandemic response for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries. This paper finds evidence supporting both explanations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10669
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  • 8
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    Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10657
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  • 9
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    The Costs Come before the Benefits : Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz The Costs Come before the Benefits: Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Assistance Need ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Displacement ; Financial Inclusion ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Humanitarian Aid ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Labor Market Inclusion ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugees ; Self-Reliance
    Abstract: When host countries allow refugees to earn income, two main groups benefit: refugees, who become financially autonomous, and international institutions that can reduce the humanitarian aid that would otherwise be needed to support refugees. Uganda is one of the more progressive countries when it comes to promoting the financial independence of refugees and shifting from humanitarian aid to development ways of working. This note considers how successful refugees in Uganda have been in becoming financially independent and estimates how assistance has been saved due to these efforts at economic inclusion. Using the international poverty line of USD 2.15 in 2017 purchasing power parities to proxy the costs of basic needs, the results suggest that the amount of total aid needed was reduced by almost 45 percent. They also show that many refugees live in poverty, implying that the present combination of aid and work is inadequate to assure a decent standard of living. While more assistance is needed in the short run, reductions in development assistance are feasible but require upfront investments in refugee earning capacity to realize them
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10679
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  • 10
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    Rural Labor and Long Recall Loss (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambler, Kate Rural Labor and Long Recall Loss
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Labor Supply ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Household Survey ; Rural Labor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Surveys frequently rely on annual recall to capture individuals' labor activities over the preceding year. This paper uses a panel of rural households in Malawi for a survey experiment to test the effect of a long, annual recall window on reported labor supply relative to a set of quarterly interviews. The paper documents large losses in reported labor participation using the long recall window with reductions of over 20 percent of reported activities and months worked and a 2.5 times greater incidence of reported unemployment relative to the shorter window. These losses are greater for activities further in the past and especially for individuals whose labor supply is reported by other family members, reaching up to 50 percent for some outcomes. The profile of households' primary respondents, predominantly male and older, and differential effects by age further suggest that long recall may cause meaningful biases in the resulting data for women and younger household members
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10680
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  • 11
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    Exit Patterns from Brazil's Bolsa Familia and the Role of the Local Labor Market (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fietz, Katharina Exit Patterns from Brazil's Bolsa Familia and the Role of the Local Labor Market
    Keywords: Bolsa Familia ; Conditional Cash Transfer ; Dynamic Means-Tested Cash Transfer ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Workers ; Social Protection Program Graduation ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Can rising tides in the labor market lift the poor out of social assistance Although a substantial literature has studied the capacity of safety nets to expand automatically during labor market shocks, less is known about the dynamics of social assistance when labor market conditions improve, and who may benefit from positive changes. This paper studies how rising formal employment at the municipal level affects the likelihood of beneficiary families to exit Bolsa Familia, Brazil's dynamic means-tested cash transfer. The analysis exploits panel data from Brazil's vast social registry, matched with seven years of Bolsa Familia payroll information and formal employment records. The data reveal that the Bolsa Familia program displays significant and heterogeneous dynamism, with beneficiaries with higher levels of education and fewer constraints to labor supply taking fewer years to exit. The analysis then uses fixed-effects estimates, combined with an instrumental variable approach, to identify the effects of exogenous changes in the local labor market on exits. The findings show that the increase in local employment leads to a small, statistically significant rise in the probability of exiting from Bolsa Familia. These effects are concentrated in households with spare labor supply and those with medium levels of education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10676
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  • 12
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    Female Headship and Poverty in the Arab Region : Analysis of Trends and Dynamics Based on a New Typology (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (97 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als AlAzzawi, Shireen Female Headship and Poverty in the Arab Region: Analysis of Trends and Dynamics Based on a New Typology
    Keywords: Female-Headed Households (FHH) ; Female-Headedness Typology ; Gender ; Household Survey Data ; Poverty Dynamics ; Poverty Feminization ; Poverty Reduction ; Synthetic Panels
    Abstract: Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have had mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyzes synthetic panels constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, the West Bank and Gaza, and Tunisia. The paper finds that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non--FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are the most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across measures of FHHs. The findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10672
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  • 13
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    Fiscal Policy, Poverty and Inequality in Jordan : The Role of Taxes and Public Spending (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy, Poverty and Inequality in Jordan: The Role of Taxes and Public Spending
    Keywords: Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy and Inequality ; Income Inequality ; Poverty and Social Impact ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: Analysing who benefits from different taxes and spending is important to understand how fiscal policy is affecting poverty and inequality in Jordan. This study traces how the Jordanian fiscal system affects different households, while paying income tax and GST and benefiting from social assistance, and services, such as, cash transfers, electricity and water subsidies, education and health. The study finds that Jordan's current fiscal system is modestly progressive, but more could be achieved. Inequality, as measured by the Gini Index, falls 5.8 points between household market incomes and post-fiscal incomes (after paying income and consumption taxes as well as receiving government transfers and subsidized services). When considering only monetary taxes and benefits (that is, excluding non-cash education and health services), inequality falls by only 2.6 points and poverty would be almost the same as the official poverty rate. Nonetheless, the recent expansion of social assistance programs is making Jordan's fiscal policies more equalizing and there is scope for other reforms which would both close the fiscal gap while further reducing poverty and inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10732
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  • 14
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    Central America Human Capital Review : Promoting More and Better Investments in Human Capital (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Education ; Education For All ; Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Capital ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; UMI Countries
    Abstract: This Human Capital Review aims to provide analytical foundations in the support of policies that improve human capital outcomes for the following four UMI countries in Central America: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. The objective of this report is to identify the key constraints to human capital growth and understand how education and labor market policies can foster a resilient recovery, promote inclusive growth, and contribute to poverty reduction in these countries. The review also estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human capital outcomes using a multi-sectoral approach. The analysis compares human capital outcomes in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019) against trends during the pandemic (2020-2021). Lastly, the report focuses on these four countries, which are the only UMI in Central America to take advantage of new data collected during the pandemic, which allowed to quantify some of the impacts of COVID-19 and understand some of their long-term implications for human development outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/41181
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  • 15
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    Tackling Gender Discriminatory Inheritance Law Privately : Lessons from a Survey Experiment in Tunisia (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hauser, Christina Sarah Tackling Gender Discriminatory Inheritance Law Privately: Lessons from a Survey Experiment in Tunisia
    Keywords: Family Law ; Gender Discrimination ; Gifting ; Inheritance Law ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When reform of gender discriminatory law fails, individual action can offer a second-best solution. As most Muslim-majority countries, Tunisia applies Islamic inheritance law, systematically favoring sons over daughters. By making gifts to their daughter, parents can privately attenuate gender discrimination in inheritance. This study investigates to what extent gifting can represent an alternative to legal reform and for whom. Within a randomized experiment, this study tests whether providing information on public support for inheritance law reform and/or the possibility to make a gift to one's daughter has a causal impact on individual attitudes towards women's right to inheritance. The overall evidence on the effectiveness of the proposed informational treatments to encourage gifting is mixed. However, approval of gifting daughters is high--especially among the wealthy. Men are more likely to gift than women. By contrast, demand for legal reform is significantly higher among women and individuals with low educational attainment. The findings thus suggest that gifting indeed represents an alternative to legal reform; but mostly for a relatively well-off subset of the population, leaving the agency to the traditionally male head of the family
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10693
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  • 16
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    Assessing the Extent of Monetary Poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic after a Decade of Conflict (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia Assessing the Extent of Monetary Poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic after a Decade of Conflict
    Keywords: Data Deprivation ; Fragility and Conflict ; Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Nowcasting ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Social Development and Poverty
    Abstract: The data for estimating monetary poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic are outdated. In the context of data scarcity, this paper aims to propose a methodological approach to address the knowledge gap regarding welfare in Syria over the past decade. In particular, the analysis provides (i) updated pre-conflict poverty baseline estimates based on grouped data from the 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey; (ii) supporting evidence on the viability of using Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme Demographic and Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene 2022 survey data for the estimation of monetary poverty in 2022; and (iii) supporting theoretical and empirical evidence to identify growth in per capita gross domestic product in current prices deflated by Consumer Price Index as the best metric to project poverty using a nowcasting approach. Based on this analysis, the paper proposes to use 2022 Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme-based poverty estimates to anchor the most recent estimates to the best available evidence, and to interpolate the poverty evolution obtained from back-casting 2022 and nowcasting 2009 poverty estimates over 2009-22 using the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product in current prices, deflated by the Consumer Price Index with a passthrough of 0.7
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10736
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  • 17
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    Comparing Internally Displaced Persons with those Left Behind : Evidence from the Central African Republic (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Comparing Internally Displaced Persons with those Left Behind: Evidence from the Central African Republic
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Central African Republic ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Displacement ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Global poverty is increasingly becoming concentrated in conflict-affected settings. Therefore, assessing the welfare of those people displaced by conflict is of growing policy importance. Collecting and analyzing data on displaced people is challenging because sampling them is difficult, standard welfare metrics may not reflect their experiences, and they are highly heterogeneous. Assessing the welfare effects of displacement also hinges on constructing counterfactuals that show how internally displaced persons would have fared had they stayed in place. Displaced people typically come from a nonrandom subset of communities affected by conflict or other shocks, so comparing them with the rest of the population may be misleading. This paper addresses this issue using data from the Central African Republic, which recorded detailed information on displacement histories to isolate the communities from which those living in internally displaced person camps originated. Using these "catchment areas" for internally displaced person camps as a counterfactual suggests that although displaced households have lower monetary consumption and higher monetary poverty than the overall population, they may be no worse off on many key metrics than those left behind in the communities originally affected by conflict. Moreover, those left behind enjoy none of the benefits of being in camps, such as additional access to water and sanitation services. These results underline the importance of tailoring policies and data collection to consider those in communities originally affected by conflict, just as practitioners are doing for displaced populations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10725
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  • 18
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    Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century : Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10713
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  • 19
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    Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? : Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10698
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  • 20
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    New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa : More Unequal than we Thought (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa: More Unequal than we Thought
    Keywords: Circumstances ; Consumpton Inequality ; Equity and Development ; Inequality ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development
    Abstract: Unequal access to economic opportunity for individuals with different innate characteristics, such as ethnicity or parents' socioeconomic status, is often seen as both morally undesirable and bad for economic growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, or the share of inequality explained by birth characteristics, across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. For many countries, this is the first time inequality of opportunity is measured. The paper uses nationally representative household survey data harmonized to allow for cross-country comparisons. Using consumption per capita as the outcome, the findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated. On average, inherited circumstances explain more than half of inequality in the region. Estimates range from 40 to 60 percent in most countries and reach 74 percent in South Africa. The findings show that birthplace, parents' education, and ethnicity tend to be the most significant contributors, but there is large variation in the importance of circumstances across countries. This represents the most comprehensive estimate of inequality of opportunity to date in the poorest and one of the most unequal regions in the world, and it underscores the pressing need for policy makers to intensify their efforts to address inequality of opportunity to foster societies that are more equitable and unlock the full potential for growth in the region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10723
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  • 21
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    How Large Are the Economic Dividends from Closing Gender Employment Gaps in the Middle East and North Africa? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fiuratti, Federico Ivan How Large Are the Economic Dividends from Closing Gender Employment Gaps in the Middle East and North Africa?
    Keywords: Gender ; Gender Employment Gap ; Gender Employment Gap Index ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Neoclassical Growth Models ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the gains in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa, using three neoclassical growth models. The paper starts with baseline impacts from the Gender Employment Gap Index, which suggests that in the long run, gross domestic product per capita would be around 50 percent higher in the typical economy in the region if gender employment gaps were closed (mean 54 percent, median 49 percent). However, the gains are heterogeneous, ranging from less than 10 percent in Qatar to more than 80 percent in the Republic of Yemen. The paper then explores short-term gains, when capital is fixed (or adjusts slowly), and gains in the medium-term, with sluggish implementation of reforms using the Long Term Growth Model, which roughly halves the gains (and lowers the gains by more than half in resource-rich countries). Finally, the paper incorporates the effects of changes in the skill distribution in a model incorporating capital-skill complementarities in production. Because gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa tend to be larger among the unskilled, closing these gaps reduces average skill levels, moderating long-term gains by 5-10 percentage points. However, if women in the Middle East and North Africa continue the current trend toward greater educational attainment, the gains will be greater than in the baseline. All three models--the Gender Employment Gap Index, the Long Term Growth Model, and capital-skill complementarities--point to large increases in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10706
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  • 22
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    The Growth Elasticity of Poverty : Is Africa Any Different? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wu, Haoyu The Growth Elasticity of Poverty: Is Africa Any Different?
    Keywords: Aggregate Economic Growth ; Global Poverty Reduction ; Gross Domestic Product Per Capita ; Growth Elasticity ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: On current trends, the future of global poverty reduction will be determined by Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet even during Sub-Saharan Africa's period of high economic growth -- roughly corresponding to the first decade and a half of the 2000s -- the extent to which this growth translated into improved living standards for African households was hotly debated. This paper revisits the issue of Sub-Saharan Africa's relatively low growth elasticity of poverty using a sample of 575 successive and comparable growth spells between 1981 and 2021. The findings confirm that, even controlling for initial differences in poverty, income levels, and inequality, Sub-Saharan Africa consistently had a significantly lower growth elasticity of poverty relative to other regions over this period. The lower growth elasticity of poverty, which has remained unchanged over time, is due to a lower passthrough between growth in gross domestic product per capita (or growth in household final consumption expenditure as measured by national accounts) and growth in household consumption expenditures as measured from surveys. Given the low passthrough of economic growth to households, Africa thus needs higher rates of economic growth than its peer countries in other regions to achieve equal rates of poverty reduction. Given the challenge of achieving this in the current global economic environment, success in reducing global poverty will require a focused effort to strengthen the effect of aggregate economic growth on household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest that this will require (i) improved provision of basic education services and basic infrastructure, (ii) faster structural transformation, and (iii) a decrease in the occurrence and persistence of violent conflicts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10690
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  • 23
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    Liberia Country Climate Development Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
    DOI: 10.1596/41241
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  • 24
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    Responsibility Sharing and the Economic Participation of Refugees in Chad (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Coulibaly, Mohamed Responsibility Sharing and the Economic Participation of Refugees in Chad
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Disaster Risk Management ; Environment ; Flood and Drought Risk Management ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Natural Resources Management ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The Global Compact on Refugees recognizes the importance of responsibility sharing for hosting, protecting, and assisting refugees, while emphasizing the potential of economic participation to reduce the cost of humanitarian assistance. This note explores the relative importance of aid in caring for refugees hosted in Chad and the importance of the incomes earned by the refugees. It finds that the combination of aid and self-earned incomes falls far short of a minimum standard of living (the poverty line) as a consequence of which the vast majority of refugees lives in abject poverty. It is also finds that although refugees are hosted in camps with relatively few economic opportunities, self-generated income covers 54 percent of the poverty line and aid only 14 percent. As Chad has adopted a policy of refugee inclusion and dispersion, the note then explores how much these progressive policies might increase the income earning potential of refugees. This is found to be substantial. Economic participation policies are estimated to reduce refugee poverty from 88 to 50 percent (thus increasing the self-sufficiency of refugees dramatically), while increasing the incomes generated by poor refugees by more than 50 percent. The greatest participation benefits will be realized when refugees move to areas with more economic potential
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10727
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  • 25
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    More, Better, and Inclusive Jobs in Kazakhstan : Social Protection and Jobs Europe and Central Asia - Analytical Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
    DOI: 10.1596/41222
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  • 26
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    Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost : Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10738
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  • 27
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    The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Labor Force Participation ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: Despite sizable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million jobs were lost in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian women's disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in female labor force participation that had slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10705
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  • 28
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    Quality and Inequality in Pre-Primary and Home Environment Inputs to Early Childhood Development in Egypt (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Krafft, Caroline Quality and Inequality in Pre-Primary and Home Environment Inputs to Early Childhood Development in Egypt
    Keywords: Children and Youth ; Early Childhood Development ; Education ; Education Quality ; Home Environment ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Pre-Primary ; Pre-Primary Child Development Investment ; Primary Education Investment ; School Readiness Indicators ; Social Development ; Socioeconomic Inquality
    Abstract: By the time children in low- and middle-income countries start primary school, large socioeconomic disparities are evident in children's learning and development. Both pre-primary and home environments can play important roles in influencing school readiness and can contribute to disparities in early childhood development, but there is limited evidence on their relative roles in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines how pre-primary quality, stimulation at home, and early childhood development vary by socioeconomic status for pre-primary students in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The results demonstrate substantial socioeconomic inequality in stimulation at home, more so than in pre-primary quality and inputs, although there is variation in the degree of inequality across different dimensions of pre-primary quality. "Double inequality" is observed, where students with less stimulating home environments experience slightly lower quality pre-primary inputs. There are particularly large pre-primary inequities in structural quality (physical environment) and less inequity in process quality (pedagogy). These results suggest that targeted investments in pre-primary education in Egypt are necessary to reduce inequality in school readiness but are likely insufficient to close the socioeconomic status gap in children's development. Investing in interventions to improve vulnerable children's home learning environments, as well as investing in quality pre-primary, is critical to address disparities in children's development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10317
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  • 29
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    Labor Productivity Growth and Industrialization in Africa (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McMillan, Margaret Labor Productivity Growth and Industrialization in Africa
    Keywords: Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; General Manufacturing ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; Manufacturing ; Manufacturing Jobs ; Manufacturing Linkages ; Poverty Reduction ; Premature Deindustrialization ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Small Firm Productivity
    Abstract: Manufacturing has made an important contribution to raising living standards in many parts of the world. Concerns about premature deindustrialization have made some observers skeptical about the potential for manufacturing to play this role in Africa. But employment in African manufacturing has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These employment gains have been accompanied by: (i) large increases in the number of small manufacturing firms, (ii) limited employment gains in large firms, and (iii) robust labor productivity growth in Africa's large firms. Limited employment growth in Africa's large manufacturing firms is partly a result of the capital intensity of the manufacturing subsectors in which African countries are most engaged-the processing of resources-and partly a result of rising capital intensity in manufacturing. The potential for manufacturing to raise living standards in Africa depends on indirect job creation by large firms through backward and forward linkages and increasing labor productivity in small firms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10294
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  • 30
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    Least Protected, Most Affected : Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Urbina, Maria Jose Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience
    Keywords: Amnesties ; COVID 19 Impact ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Forced Migration ; Health Policy and Management ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugee Pandemic Outcomes ; Refugee Resilience ; Regularization of Migrants
    Abstract: How can regularization programs improve forced migrants' resilience to shocks This paper leverages panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more resilient and less affected by the pandemic than similar but non-eligible forced migrants. The results indicate that access to the program promoted better health access for eligible migrants, facilitating adherence to prevention guidelines and increasing detection rates. Additionally, eligible migrants had better housing and labor conditions, relative to non-eligible migrants
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10291
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  • 31
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    Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rude, Britta Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in El Salvador
    Keywords: Adaptive Safety Nets ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Household-Level Shocks ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Risk Mitigation Strategy ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Social Risk Management ; Vulnerability To Poverty ; Vulnerable Populations
    Abstract: El Salvador is marked by high vulnerability to risks and hazards, such as crime, natural disasters, and migration. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the vulnerability patterns of its population. This paper applies an innovative approach to estimate the population's vulnerability to poverty and analyze its underlying drivers. The findings show that ex-ante vulnerability to poverty decreased over 2016 to 2019, a parallel trend to the poverty reduction observed in the country during this period. This finding comes hand in hand with an increase in the importance of risk factors relative to a low accumulation of assets driving vulnerability. Additionally, household-level shocks play a more significant role than community-level shocks. To address vulnerabilities in the country, the government should invest in adaptive safety nets and risk mitigation strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10289
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  • 32
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    Honduras Poverty Assessment : Toward a Path of Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Environment ; Equity and Development ; Human Capital ; Inclusive Growth ; Labor Market ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Honduras, already among the poorest countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, experienced weak poverty reduction in 2014-19 compared to other countries in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota led to a rise in poverty from 2019 to 2020; it is likely that poverty will remain above prepandemic levels in 2021. The economic rebound in 2021, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, led to an increase in food prices; at the same time, Honduras's population is vulnerable to rising food prices and food insecurity is high. In 2019, the extreme poor spent almost half of their income on food. Additionally, food insecurity was persistently high. A striking feature of Honduras is the deep and widening urban-rural divide in terms of quality of life. There is a wide urban-rural poverty gap for both the moderate and the extreme poor, which reflects significant disparities in access to basic services such as electricity, water, and sanitation, and internet usage, as well as lower human capital accumulation and worsen labor market indicators in rural areas. While overall income inequality has been stagnant since 2014, inequality in rural areas has increased while in urban areas it has declined. The country is one of the most unequal countries in LAC. Hondurans continue to face deep and persistent disparities in access to and quality of education, with rural areas heavily penalized, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, despite high spending on education. Subnational disparities are particularly large; poverty continues to be most heavily concentrated in the country's southwestern areas, in departments with higher shares of ethnic minorities, and in municipalities located in the south and southwest. This report focuses on the factors that have contributed to these observed poverty and inequality trends and patterns in Honduras
    DOI: 10.1596/39449
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  • 33
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    Improving Estimates of Mean Welfare and Uncertainty in Developing Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Merfeld, Joshua D Improving Estimates of Mean Welfare and Uncertainty in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Development Policy ; Geospacial Data ; Household Census Data ; Machine Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Prediction of Poverty ; Prediction of Wealth ; Welfare
    Abstract: Reliable estimates of economic welfare for small areas are valuable inputs into the design and evaluation of development policies. This paper compares the accuracy of point estimates and confidence intervals for small area estimates of wealth and poverty derived from four different prediction methods: linear mixed models, Cubist regression, extreme gradient boosting, and boosted regression forests. The evaluation draws samples from unit-level household census data from four developing countries, combines them with publicly and globally available geospatial indicators to generate small area estimates, and evaluates these estimates against aggregates calculated using the full census. Predictions of wealth are evaluated in four countries and poverty in one. All three machine learning methods outperform the traditional linear mixed model, with extreme gradient boosting and boosted regression forests generally outperforming the other alternatives. The proposed residual bootstrap procedure reliably estimates confidence intervals for the machine learning estimators, with estimated coverage rates across simulations falling between 94 and 97 percent. These results demonstrate that predictions obtained using tree-based gradient boosting with a random effect block bootstrap generate more accurate point and uncertainty estimates than prevailing methods for generating small area welfare estimates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10348
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  • 34
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    The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis : Busting Myths through a Demonstration (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Case Study Review ; Case-Based Evaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation Design ; Intervention Effectiveness ; Interventions and Outcomes ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Support To Carbon Finance Case Study
    Abstract: Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank's support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs
    DOI: 10.1596/39773
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  • 35
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    Jobs, Food and Greening : Exploring Implications of the Green Transition for Jobs in the Agri-food System (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Agri-Food Jobs ; Agricultural Pollution ; Agriculture Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Industry ; Food Industry Pollution ; Green Issues ; Green Transition Jobs ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Industry ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Youth Employment
    Abstract: The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R and D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R and D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture's current USD 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point
    DOI: 10.1596/39819
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  • 36
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    Diagnosing the Binding Constraints to Better Jobs : An Approach and Framework (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Access To Capital ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Capital Constraint ; Jobs ; Labor Market Policy ; Low Productivity Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The persistent lack of good jobs that is, an inadequate level or quality of jobs, inefficient and/or inequitable jobs outcomes is a key economic issue in developing (and some developed) economies. Yet policy responses often lack an understanding of the causes. While the proximate drivers, such as low productivity growth, slow capital deepening, or a lack of firms and other organized economic actors, may share patterns, the policy roots and circumstances of these outcomes vary a great deal by country. Thus, making progress in a meaningful and lasting way requires, in the first instance, a clear understanding of the binding constraints which, if alleviated, would result in a substantial structural improvement to jobs outcomes. Binding constraints could arise in a host of policies and institutions, including possibly inadequate human capital and labor market policies but also in infrastructure, regulatory, financial, judicial and other areas. This paper provides a data-driven approach and framework for diagnosing the truly binding constraints to better jobs. The approach is to rule out broad categories of constraints using economic logic and data, and to utilize an array of empirical indicators to test whether remaining candidate constraints are binding. While this paper outlines an exhaustive approach, the style of thinking and techniques can also be applied selectively to fill analytical gaps and ensure that key issues are not left unaddressed
    DOI: 10.1596/39818
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  • 37
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    Disastrous Displacement : The Long-Run Impacts of Landslides (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baseler, Travis Disastrous Displacement: The Long-Run Impacts of Landslides
    Keywords: Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Refugees ; Displacement ; Displacement and Mental Health ; Environment ; Forced Migration ; Government Adminitrated Relocation ; Landslide Impact ; Living Standards ; Mental Health and Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Natural disasters displace millions of people a year, but little is known about their long-run impacts when institutional capacity to respond to the disaster is low. This paper estimates the long-run impacts of six major landslides in Uganda, where most affected households received little aid. The analysis combines administrative and survey data from nearly the full population of affected and nearby households with exact landslide paths and a geological model of landslide risk to identify impacts relative to nearby households facing similar risk. Landslides substantially increase long-term displacement and migration, and affected households have significantly worse economic and mental health outcomes years afterward. Displacement worsens long-run outcomes, especially when not administered by the government. These findings contrast with many other studies of natural disaster, and suggest that the positive impacts of displacement require a favorable financial and institutional environment unlikely to be found in many countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10535
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  • 38
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    The Welfare Effects of Structural Change and Internal Migration in Tanzania (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo The Welfare Effects of Structural Change and Internal Migration in Tanzania
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Cross-Sector Labor Movement ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Structures ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Internal Migration ; Labor Market Shift ; Panel Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Structural Change ; Welfare Indicators
    Abstract: Structural change has implications for various dimensions of development, including poverty reduction. However, the existing empirical literature on Sub-Saharan African economies, including Tanzania, has mainly focused on trends and patterns in macroeconomic or aggregate welfare indicators, largely providing a descriptive analysis of the nature of structural change and its potential welfare implications. This paper provides micro insights on structural change in Tanzania and its effect on welfare, using a recent household panel dataset, which was collected between 2015 and 2021. The results show that cross-sector labor movements are dominated by movements between agriculture and services, although most individuals studied within the two periods continue to remain in agriculture, with industry's share in employment declining marginally. The paper shows that among the individuals studied, the number of people who slid into poverty was nearly twice the number who escaped poverty, and this is significantly influenced by the pattern of sectoral transitions experienced by the individuals. The findings show that in addition to sectoral transitions and migration being important to each other, they are both driven by similar micro factors. The paper highlights the importance of education (particularly secondary or higher education) to increasing the chances of an individual embarking on welfare-enhancing sectoral movement and associated migration across districts in Tanzania
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10530
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  • 39
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    A Meta-Theory for Absolute Poverty Lines (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit A Meta-Theory for Absolute Poverty Lines
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Global Poverty ; Heterogeneous Preferences ; Poverty and Development Research ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Absolute poverty lines aim to track a fixed poverty standard consistently. There are two main approaches for the construction of absolute poverty lines. The "welfaristic" approach tracks a fixed level of utility, and the "objective" approach tracks a fixed list of achievements. As they yield different poverty comparisons, longstanding debates between their respective proponents take place both at global and national levels. However, these debates only provide informal arguments about their respective theoretical validity. This paper proposes a meta-theory for the consistency properties of absolute poverty lines under heterogeneous prices and heterogeneous preferences. The results identify the sets of consistency properties that fully characterize the poverty lines underpinned by these approaches. Which approach has better consistency properties depends on two aspects of the application for which poverty is monitored
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10519
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  • 40
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    Reconceptualizing Global Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, with Illustration on Nigerian Data (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Bonoit Reconceptualizing Global Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, with Illustration on Nigerian Data
    Keywords: Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Monitary Poverty Measurement Bias ; Mortality Impact Measurement ; Multidimensional Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Well-Being Indicator
    Abstract: Multidimensional poverty measures can in theory make well-being comparisons that are less biased than those solely based on monetary poverty. However, global multidimensional poverty measures suffer in practice from limitations that have led to credible criticisms. This paper presents the case for multidimensional poverty measures, two criticisms against their current implementations, as well as recently proposed solutions to improve on these criticisms. The paper develops a method for implementing these solutions in practice. The resulting well-being indicator is used to compare well-being across Nigerian states in 2019. This empirical illustration suggests that these solutions may substantially affect well-being comparisons. The paper also quantifies the potential bias inherent to comparing well-being solely based on monetary poverty. The results find substantially different well-being comparisons between the proposed well-being indicator and monetary poverty even though monetary poverty was (i) high in Nigeria in 2019 and (ii) very heterogeneously distributed across Nigerian states; and (iii) is integrated as one component of the proposed well-being indicator. The paper aims to improve global multidimensional poverty measures by making them more consistent with preference theory and by incorporating the direct impact of mortality, which deprives individuals of the most important functioning
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10577
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  • 41
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    Rebel with a Cause : Effects of a Gender Norms Intervention for Adolescents in Somalia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brar, Rajdev Rebel with a Cause: Effects of a Gender Norms Intervention for Adolescents in Somalia
    Keywords: Adolescent Gender Norm Intervention ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Social Policy ; Gender Impact Evaluation ; Gender Inequality ; Gender Innovation Lab, Africa Region ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norm Conformity ; Girl's Life Choices ; Poverty Reduction ; Women's Empowerment
    Abstract: Gender inequality and restrictive norms are often reinforced and internalized during adolescence, influencing pivotal life choices. This paper presents results from a randomly-assigned gender norms intervention for young adolescents in Somalia that led to greater support for gender equality in reported attitudes among both girls and boys. In a novel lab-in-the-field experiment designed to observe social group dynamics, treated adolescents were also found to be less likely to succumb to peer pressure to conform when stating their gender attitudes in public. Perceptions of gender norms appears to shift for boys, leading to a greater public expression of gender egalitarian ideals. Furthermore, the findings show improved adolescent mental health, increased caring behavior towards siblings of the opposite sex, and a higher likelihood of involvement in household chores by boys. A complementary gender norms intervention for parents had limited marginal impact on the attitudes and behaviors of adolescents. The results suggest that gender norms interventions can be effective in influencing the attitudes and public discourse around gender equality, even in early adolescence
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10567
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  • 42
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    Household Surveys during Multiple Crises : Modifying Questionnaires to Assess the Impact of Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: COVID-19 Impact ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equity and Development ; Household Survey Data ; Household Survey Design ; Impact of Shocks on Households ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Questionnaire Design ; Shocks and Household Welfare
    Abstract: Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced multiple global crises in the last few years. As countries adapt to a new normal, multi-topic household surveys should also be adapted to account for the impacts of shocks on household welfare. By reviewing the standard household survey questionnaires included in the guidebook, capturing what matters: essential guidelines for designing household surveys, the authors provide technical guidance on issues to consider when reviewing, designing, or updating questionnaires for household surveys during or after a major shock - relying on lessons learned from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study program
    DOI: 10.1596/40391
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  • 43
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    Financial Inclusion : Lessons from World Bank Group Experience, Fiscal Years 2014-22 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Assessment of World Bank Effectiveness ; Equity and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion Policy ; Financial Reform ; Financial Services ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Institutional Reform ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This evaluation explores how and with what effect the World Bank Group has supported financial inclusion for the microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. Financial inclusion is defined as the use of financial services by individuals and firms. It encompasses financial access-owning an account-and the use of financial services. There has been an impressive growth in account ownership globally, from 55% of adults in 2014 to 71% in 2021, although usage is more limited as some accounts are inactive. Critically, both financial access and the use of financial services remain major challenges for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. The objective of the evaluation is to assess whether the Bank Group has been doing the right things and whether it has been doing things right on financial inclusion. The evaluation captures lessons from the World Bank's experience supporting financial inclusion for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups and updates a 2015 financial inclusion evaluation. The evaluation includes a retrospective look at the drive for universal financial access and examines progress and challenges in women's access to financial services. The evaluation also assesses the Bank Group's support for digital financial services as vehicles for financial inclusion. Finally, the report examines the World Bank's response to COVID-19 as it relates to financial inclusion. The evaluation proposes three recommendations: (i) The World Bank and IFC should further encourage account use by underserved groups, including women and rural poor people, and emphasize this more in their strategies and projects. (ii) The World Bank and IFC should design and implement more comprehensive approaches that address constraints in the enabling environment for DFS to reach underserved and excluded groups. (iii) To enhance learning on what works to increase the beneficial use of financial services at the MPWEG, the World Bank and IFC should collect outcome data across different underserved and excluded groups, initially on a pilot basis
    DOI: 10.1596/40282
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  • 44
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    The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises : Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bedoya, Guadalupe The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan
    Keywords: Big Push Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Extreme Poverty Intervention ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Poverty ; Livestock Ownership ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Productive Asset Transfer ; Reproducibile Research Repository ; Rural Development ; Women's Empowerment
    Abstract: How do proven strategies to improve the economic conditions of ultra-poor households hold up against the increasing severity and co-incidence of economic, security, and climate shocks Five years after receiving an economic livelihoods package, and shortly prior to the 2021 regime change, "ultra-poor" women in Afghanistan continued to have significantly higher levels of consumption, assets, market work participation, financial inclusion, children's school enrollment, and women's psychological well-being and empowerment, relative to the control group. Households boost resilience by diversifying productive activities and the program improves equality by reducing the gaps between ultra-poor and non-ultra- poor households across multiple dimensions. The results illustrate how an increasingly popular approach to improve the conditions of the very poor through a one-off "big push" intervention can strengthen household resilience through multiple shocks in one of the most fragile settings worldwide
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10596
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  • 45
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    Enablers of Inclusive Cities : Enhancing Access to Services and Opportunities (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2201
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Access To Finance ; Access To Services ; Digital Divide ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; G20 ; Inclusive Cities ; Information and Communication Technologies ; National Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Poverty Reduction ; Roles of Stakeholders ; Sustainability and Resilience ; Urban Development
    Abstract: In both G20 and non-G20 countries alike, cities have a crucial role to play in the achievement of national development goals. Already, cities generate more than 80 percent of global GDP and, with a share of the global population that is projected to reach nearly 70 percent by 2050, up from the current share of around 57 percent, the global importance of cities will only grow further in the decades ahead. However, whether the cities of tomorrow can fulfil their potential as drivers of national economic development will depend, to a large extent, on how inclusive they are - that is to say, the extent to which they are able to provide all their residents with quality access to services, markets, and spaces. This is because not only is inclusion in and of itself important, but because more inclusive cities are also both more prosperous and more resilient cities. At the same time, many policies that contribute to inclusive urban development carry important co-benefits for both climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as vice versa. In this context, this report addresses four important questions: (a) What is an inclusive city (b) How inclusive are cities in G20 member and guest countries, as well as in other countries, globally today (c) What instruments should policymakers draw-on to make the cities of tomorrow more inclusive or, to put it more succinctly, what can policymakers do to make their cities more inclusive And, finally, (d) What are the roles of different stakeholders - city leaders and their associated local governments; national governments, including their ministries of finance; the private sector; civil society organizations; and others - in the effective wielding of these instruments or, to put it more bluntly, who needs to do what
    DOI: 10.1596/40642
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  • 46
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    The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty in Iraq (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty in Iraq
    Keywords: Committment To Equity Model ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Expenditure ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Social Protections and Labor ; Taxes
    Abstract: This study assesses the distributional impacts of public expenditures and taxes on poverty and inequality in the Republic of Iraq. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology and is based on the survey and government fiscal administrative data for fiscal year 2017. Results from the analysis show that Iraq's fiscal policy is modestly progressive. It reduces short-term inequality by 6.7 and 3.0 Gini points with and without including public spending on education and health services. Both results are less than the global and upper-middle-income country averages. However, driven by direct transfers from poverty targeted social safety net cash transfers and generous pension allowances, the fiscal system reduces short-term poverty by 5 percentage points when evaluated using the international poverty line of USD 5.5. This is one of the largest in the global and upper-middle-income country databases. These positive short-term results are achieved primarily because households pay almost no taxes. Iraq's tax revenues are far lower than even the lower-income countries' average. Unlike in most countries, Iraqi households in all quintiles, even the richest, are net beneficiaries of the fiscal policy. Given oil price volatility and the global movement away from fossil fuels, the high oil dependence and lack of a broader revenue base pose a significant fiscal sustainability challenge in Iraq
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10588
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  • 47
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    Business Size, Development, and Inequality in Latin America : A Tale of one Tail (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eslava, Marcela Business Size, Development, and Inequality in Latin America: A Tale of one Tail
    Keywords: Business Size ; Developing Economies Business Data ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm-Level Datasets ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Micro-Enterprises ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: Using official employment surveys for 45 advanced economies and Latin American countries, this paper shows that the positive cross-country correlation between business size and GDP per capita is tighter than previously found using firm-level datasets and finds a close negative business size-Gini relationship. The paper also finds a closer connection between individual income and business size for workers in less developed countries compared with those in advanced economies. Because employment data address the bias against the smallest productive units that characterize firm-level datasets, our approach uniquely assesses and highlights the dominance of the left tail of the business size distribution in less developed countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10584
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  • 48
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    Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Wealth using Geospatial Data : What have we Learned so Far? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Newhouse, David Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Wealth using Geospatial Data: What have we Learned so Far?
    Keywords: Cell Phone Data ; Convolutional Neural Networks ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Geospacial Data ; Living Standards ; Poverty and Wealth Data Prediction ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Mapping ; Poverty Reduction ; Satellite Data ; Small Area Estimation
    Abstract: This paper offers a nontechnical review of selected applications that combine survey and geospatial data to generate small area estimates of wealth or poverty. Publicly available data from satellites and phones predicts poverty and wealth accurately across space, when evaluated against census data, and their use in model-based estimates improve the accuracy and efficiency of direct survey estimates. Although the evidence is scant, models based on interpretable features appear to predict at least as well as estimates derived from Convolutional Neural Networks. Estimates for sampled areas are significantly more accurate than those for non-sampled areas due to informative sampling. In general, estimates benefit from using geospatial data at the most disaggregated level possible. Tree-based machine learning methods appear to generate more accurate estimates than linear mixed models. Small area estimates using geospatial data can improve the design of social assistance programs, particularly when the existing targeting system is poorly designed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10512
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  • 49
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    (Perceptions of) Inequality, Demand for Redistribution, and Group-Specific Public Goods : A Survey Experiment in India (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bussolo, Maurizio (Perceptions of) Inequality, Demand for Redistribution, and Group-Specific Public Goods: A Survey Experiment in India
    Keywords: Biased Perceptions ; Community ; Distribution ; Income ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Personal Wealth ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Goods ; Redistribution
    Abstract: This paper uses data from a survey of 116,061 households in India to study people's beliefs about inequality and demand for redistribution. The findings show that a household's beliefs about inequality, implied by the perception of their position on the income distribution, is negatively correlated with support for reducing inequality. This is relevant since there are significant differences between where individuals believe their household stands and their actual position, with the gap between perceived and actual position exceeding two deciles on average. Despite these large differences, informing individuals of their household's position on the income distribution has no discernible effect on support for reducing inequality. The paper posits that demand for redistribution may be unresponsive to this information because it is based on exclusively on household's income and does not account for the sharing of resources within communities. In communities where group-specific public goods, such as religious and social goods, are present, class antagonism and redistribution are mitigated by community solidarity. Households benefit from these goods, and such benefits alter the individuals' beliefs of inequality. Consistent with this prediction, the average individual perceives their household as richer in districts with a greater supply of religious or social goods. The sharing of resources within religious or ethnic groups can shape perceptions of the income distribution and reduce support for redistribution within these groups, and thus requires serious consideration in studies of inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10505
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  • 50
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    Independent Evaluation Group Validation of the Management Action Record 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: r02
    Keywords: Gender ; IEG Recommendation Implementation ; Independent Evaluation ; Management Action Record 2023 ; Monitoring and Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The report provides the Independent Evaluation Group's (IEGs) validation of World Bank Group management's report Learning and Adapting for Outcomes through the Management Action Record 2023: A World Bank Group Management Report on Implementation of IEG Recommendations for the period July 2022 to June 2023. The purpose of the Management Action Record (MAR) assessment system is to support accountability, learning, and adaptation for the Bank Group's implementation of recommendations from IEG evaluations. This validation document presents IEG's assessment of progress toward achieving the intended outcomes of evaluations and the evidence in management's MAR report. The Bank Group made steady progress in implementing IEG recommendations through delivering internal products and adapting processes; in some cases, it has achieved meaningful change of direction that shows that the outcomes of recommendations are being achieved. The validation assessed the evidence for all 22 IEG evaluations included in the MAR, that is, all evaluations reviewed by the Board Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) between FY19 and FY22. These 22 evaluations contain 59 recommendations
    DOI: 10.1596/40551
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    Middle East and North Africa Macro Poverty Outlook : Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Debt Indicators ; Education ; Environment ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; GHG ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health Insurance ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Indicators ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
    DOI: 10.1596/40475
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  • 52
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    The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers : Evidence from Brazil (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendes, Arthur The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
    Keywords: Bartik Instrument ; Bolsa Familia ; Cash Transfer ; Developing Countries ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Employment ; Fiscal Multiplier ; Informality ; Local Multiplier ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Relative Multiplier ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil's Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with RD 100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10652
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  • 53
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    Togo : Economic Inclusion of Youth and Women into High Potential Value Chains (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Agricultural Producer Organizations ; Agriculture ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Rural Development ; Ginger Farming Value Chain ; Informality ; Labor Markets ; Poverty Reduction ; Shea Butter Production Value Chain ; Smallholder Farmers ; Women in Agriculture Value Chains
    Abstract: Good quality jobs are key to accelerating poverty reduction and strengthening social cohesion in Togo. While Togo has made significant progress in creating more good quality jobs, with robust growth performance in the past decade, several jobs-related challenges remain. Togo's labor market is characterized by high levels of informality and underemployment, low productivity, and low-quality jobs. This difficult situation is compounded by the demographic trend of large cohorts of young people entering the labor market every year. As a result of this trend, it is estimated that, beginning in 2024, Togo will need to create 200,000 new jobs every year to absorb the influx of new entrants into the labor market. As described in the companion document to this report, Togo Jobs Diagnostic, a holistic approach to creating more and better jobs should be applied looking at the macro-, demand-, and supply side constraints. Solutions should focus on creating new jobs, improving job quality and productivity, and ensuring access to employment for vulnerable segments of the population
    DOI: 10.1596/40755
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  • 54
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    Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts : Welfare Status of Children in Nigeria (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (70 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Schimanski, Caroline Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts: Welfare Status of Children in Nigeria
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Chronic Poverty ; Deprivation ; Deprivation Gender Gap ; Equity and Development ; Intergenerational Mobility ; Monetary Poverty ; Multi-Dimensional Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Analyzing data from four waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey and the Nigerian Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, covering the period from 2010 through 2019, this study provides evidence that poverty levels of children exceed those of adults. Overall, rural children throughout the country and children in the North face higher poverty and chronic poverty rates than urban children and those living in the South without clear trends of a closing of those gaps. These findings hold for monetary poverty as well as, for severe health, education, food, shelter, water, information deprivation and improved sanitation deprivation across Nigeria's six regions. One exception is severe sanitation deprivation, for which especially rural areas in the Southwest stand out with higher levels of severe sanitation deprivation than in rural areas in the north and any other region. Large inter-state heterogeneity of estimates within regions, ranging up to 50 percentage points, for all except severe food deprivation however highlight the importance of looking beyond regional poverty estimates and regional differences. Only state specific, but no systematic evidence has been found for a gender difference in severe educational deprivation and school enrollment rates. Existing gender gaps though seem negligible compared to the overall level of deprivation and urban-rural and north-south gaps. Moreover, the parents' literacy and more so the educational level is highly correlated with the probability of being poor or deprived in any dimension, in particular in rural and northern areas. Interestingly, up to about half of the monetary non-poor children at the top of the consumption distribution still face at least one severe deprivation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10334
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  • 55
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    Long COVID : The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brunckhorst, Ben Long COVID: The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic
    Keywords: COVID and Informal Workers ; COVID-19 Impacts ; Gender ; Gender and Poverty ; Gendered COVID Impact ; Inequality ; Labor Market Impacts ; Phone Survey Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Welfare
    Abstract: This paper examines the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, using harmonized data from 343 high-frequency phone surveys conducted in 80 economies during 2020 and 2021, representing more than 2.5 billion people. The analysis focuses on the scarring effects of the initial losses of employment and income by examining their evolution over time across and within countries, as restrictions on mobility and economic activity were introduced and then gradually relaxed. The employment and welfare outcomes of some groups that were impacted to a greater degree initially-including women, informal workers, and those with less education-have been improving at a slower pace. The social protection response in lower-income economies was largely insufficient to protect households from the pandemic shock. Unmitigated welfare losses, as seen for example from the large share of households indicating income losses well into 2021, are highly correlated with food insecurity, which likely led some households to sell physical assets and deplete their savings. Without proper remediation, the uneven welfare impacts associated with COVID-19 may be amplified over the medium to long term, leading to future increases in poverty and inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10300
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  • 56
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    Do Cash Transfer Programs Protect from Poverty in the Case of Aggregate Shocks? : A Study on Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pfutze, Tobias Do Cash Transfer Programs Protect from Poverty in the Case of Aggregate Shocks? A Study on Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines
    Keywords: Aggregate Shock ; Cash Transfer Program ; Environment ; Extreme Poverty Prevention ; Natural Disasters ; Philippines Conditional Cash Transfer Program ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Typhoon Yolanda
    Abstract: Cash transfer programs are regarded as providing effective protection against poverty and household-specific negative income shocks. Little research has been done on their performance in situations of aggregate negative shocks. This paper assesses the performance of the Philippines' Conditional Cash Transfer Program in the aftermath of typhoon Yolanda in 2013. Using triple difference techniques, it finds that the program effectively protected households affected by the storm from falling into extreme poverty. It had the largest effect on nonfood consumption
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10281
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  • 57
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    Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement : A Synthesis of New Research (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Forced Displacement ; Host Communities ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Cohesion ; Social Conflict Prevention
    Abstract: This report presents new evidence from 26 background studies on forced displacement and social cohesion to expand the current knowledge base on how to prevent social conflict and promote social cohesion in forced displacement contexts. The background studies are geographically and methodologically diverse. They examine social cohesion in a variety of low-, middle-, and high-income countries across Africa, Asia, Central, and South America, and Europe. Building on this new evidence, the report provides lessons on how development investments and policies can reduce inequalities, alleviate social tensions, and promote social cohesion between and within displaced populations and host communities. Overall, the findings demonstrate that, while displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, especially in areas with strained services and limited economic opportunities, inclusive policies and development investments can effectively mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote social cohesion
    DOI: 10.1596/38431
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  • 58
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    Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? : Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia
    Keywords: Climatic Change ; Environment ; Flooding ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Agglomeration ; Urban Climate Shock ; Urban Poverty
    Abstract: While urbanization has great potential to facilitate poverty reduction, climate shocks represent a looming threat to such upward mobility. This paper empirically analyzes the effects of climatic risks on the function of urban agglomerations to support poor households to escape from poverty. Combining household surveys with climatic datasets, the panel regression analysis for Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia finds that households in large metropolitan areas are more likely to escape from poverty, indicating better access to economic opportunities in those areas. However, the climate shocks offset such benefits of urban agglomerations, as extreme rainfalls and high flood risks significantly reduce the chance of upward mobility. The findings underscore the need to enhance resilience among the urban poor to allow them to fully utilize the benefits of urban agglomerations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10383
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  • 59
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    The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes : A Meta-Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis
    Keywords: Digital Infrastructure Outcomes ; Energy Infrastructure Research ; ICT Infrastructure Research ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Infrastructure Elasticities ; Infrastructure Literature Meta-Analysis ; Infrastructure Policy Research ; Poverty Reduction ; Transport Infrastructure Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper presents a meta-analysis of the infrastructure research done over more than three decades, using a database of close to a thousand estimates from 201 papers conducted between 1983-2022, reporting outcome elasticities. The analysis casts a wide net to include the transport, energy, and digital or information and communications technology sectors and the whole set of outcomes covered in the literature, including output, employment and wages, inequality and poverty, trade, education and health, population, and environmental aspects. The results allow for an update of the underlying parameters of interest, the "true" underlying infrastructure elasticities, accounting for publication bias, as well as for heterogeneity stemming from both study design and context, with a particular focus on policy relevant subsectors and developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10350
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  • 60
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    Why do People Move? : A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying and Predicting Gender-Specific Aspirations to Migrate (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Halim, Daniel Why do People Move? A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying and Predicting Gender-Specific Aspirations to Migrate
    Keywords: International Labor Migration ; Machine Learning ; Migrant Household Survey Data ; Migration and Development ; Migration and Gender ; Migration Data by Gender ; Poverty Reduction ; Work Related Migration
    Abstract: Work-related migration has many potential drivers. While current literature has outlined a theoretical framework of various "push-pull" factors affecting the likelihood of international migration, empirical papers are often constrained by the scarcity of detailed data on migration, especially in developing countries, and are forced to look at few of these factors in isolation. When detailed data is available, researchers may face arbitrary choices of which variables to include and how to sequence their inclusion. As male and female migrants tend to face occupational segregation, the determinants of migration likely differ by gender, which compounds these data challenges. To overcome these three issues, this paper uses a rich primary household survey among migrant communities in Indonesia and employs two supervised machine-learning methods to identify the top predictors of migration by gender: random forests and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator stability selection. The paper confirms some determinants established by earlier studies and reveals several additional ones, as well as identifies differences in predictors by gender
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10396
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  • 61
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    Returns to Soft Skills Training in Rwanda (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brudevold-Newman, Andrew Returns to Soft Skills Training in Rwanda
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Job Networking ; Labor Market Entry ; Labor Market Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) ; Social Protections and Labor ; Soft Skills ; Transition From Work To School
    Abstract: Young adults seeking to enter the labor market often confront a skills mismatch with firms reporting difficulty finding new entrants with appropriate levels of soft skills. This paper reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Rwanda in which recent graduates from tertiary education were randomly assigned to a two-week intensive soft skills training program developed and delivered by staff of the University of Rwanda. Results indicate that the program facilitated accelerated entry into the labor market in a period characterized by COVID-19-related disruptions. These effects dissipated over the following year as more jobs became available in the economy and the control group's employment caught up with that of the treatment group. The paper finds evidence of significant job network expansion for participants of the training, which could have led to faster labor market entry for the treated youth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10489
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  • 62
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    Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality? : Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (83 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh H Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis
    Keywords: Climate Change Inequity ; Inequality ; Poverty and Environment ; Poverty Reduction ; Subnational Data ; Temperature
    Abstract: Despite a vast literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little evidence exists on the global impacts of hotter temperature on poverty and inequality. Analysis of a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 134 countries finds that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 9.1 percent increase in poverty, using the USD 1.90 daily poverty threshold. A similar increase in temperature causes a 1.4 percent increase in the Gini inequality index. The paper also finds negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries-particularly those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa-are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on the responsibilities of richer countries versus poorer countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10466
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  • 63
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    Using Paradata to Assess Respondent Burden and Interviewer Effects in Household Surveys : Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hasanbasri, Ardina Using Paradata to Assess Respondent Burden and Interviewer Effects in Household Surveys: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    Keywords: Computer-Assisted Interviewing ; Household Surveys ; Interviewer Effects ; Paradata ; Poverty Reduction ; Respondent Burden ; Social Analysis ; Social Development ; Survey Methodology
    Abstract: Over the past decade, national statistical offices in low- and middle-income countries have increasingly transitioned to computer-assisted personal interviewing and computer-assisted telephone interviewing for the implementation of household surveys. The byproducts of these types of data collection are survey paradata, which can unlock objective, module- and question-specific, actionable insights on respondent burden, survey costs, and interviewer effects. This study does precisely that, using paradata generated by the Survey Solutions computer-assisted personal interviewing platform in recent national household surveys implemented by the national statistical offices in Cambodia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Across countries, the average household interview, based on a socioeconomic household questionnaire, ranges from 82 to 120 minutes, while the average interview with an adult household member, based on a multi-topic individual questionnaire, takes between 13 to 25 minutes. Using a multilevel model that is estimated for each household and individual questionnaire module, the paper shows that interviewer effects on module duration are significantly larger than the estimates from high-income contexts. Food consumption, household roster, and non-farm enterprises consistently emerge among the top five household questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 5 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. Similarly, labor, health, and land ownership appear among the top five individual questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 6 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. These findings, particularly by module, point to where additional interviewer training, fieldwork supervision, and data quality monitoring may be needed in future surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10456
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  • 64
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    Kosovo Public Expenditure Review (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: Kosovo has gained a creditable reputation for prudent macro-fiscal management; yet necessary structural reforms and related fiscal pressures lie ahead. The country's track record includes consistently high output growth rates, prudent fiscal deficits supported by fiscal rules, and one of the lowest public debt levels among peers. The Government was able to successfully weather the COVID-19 crisis and mitigate the impact of the ongoing inflationary crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine thanks to its healthy fiscal accounts and stable financial sectors. At the same time, however, the overlapping external shocks have highlighted the inherent volatility that mirrors Kosovo's structural limitations - especially in health, energy, and education - and accentuates gaps in both human and physical capital. The objective of this Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to help the government identify means for improving the structure and quality of public services, enhance the equity of government spending, and take a holistic view of policies that will affect financing needs over time. To do so, the PER has analyzed fiscal issues that have not been explicitly detailed in, or are in the process of being incorporated into, the medium-term expenditure framework and the economic reform program. The most notable issues include the urgently needed energy investments, the ramifications of the new law on public salaries on the budget, the sustainability of the untargeted social protection system, and possible pathways of the cost of pensions in light of expected changes to eligibility criteria, and the health spending and health financing conundrum. The PER also looks back at past World Bank PER recommendations and their implementation record, in the attempt to shine a light on measures that remain valid and could still be implemented
    DOI: 10.1596/39944
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  • 65
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    Yemen Country Economic Memorandum 2022 : Glimmers of Hope in Dark Times (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Conflict ; COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Yemen's economy has been transformed by eight years of violent conflict. War has shattered the country's already fragile economic equilibrium, touching upon virtually every aspect of life. The compounded shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global prices have only deepened the economic and humanitarian disaster precipitated by the war. Since the start of the conflict, economic analyses have tended to focus on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, the sharp rise in poverty and food insecurity, and the destruction of infrastructure and the capital stock, but relatively little attention has been paid to the current structure of the economy or what prospects can be envisaged for the country. Also, it is important to situate this analysis within the political economy dynamics of the country which majorly affect the economic development challenges of the country. Data constraints and the unique characteristics of Yemen's recent experience limit the effectiveness of traditional growth-analysis methodologies. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) uses novel data-collection methods and analytical techniques, triangulating its findings with traditional approaches and direct data collection to close the economic knowledge gap. Information sources include extensive key-informant interviews, household phone surveys, and remotely sensed geospatial data based on satellite imagery, including nighttime illumination data. This CEM also combines an in-depth political economy analysis with economic development investigation
    DOI: 10.1596/39914
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  • 66
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    Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Goldemberg, Diana Minding the Gap: Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization
    Keywords: Aid Effectiveness ; Culture and Development ; Development Outcome ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Impact Evaluation ; Language and Communication ; Machine Learning Method ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Projects
    Abstract: This paper applies novel techniques to long-standing questions of aid effectiveness. It first replicates findings that donor finance is discernibly but weakly associated with sector outcomes in recipient countries. It then shows robustly that donors' own ratings of project success provide limited information on the contribution of those projects to development outcomes. By training a machine learning model on World Bank projects, the paper shows instead that the strongest predictor of these projects' contribution to outcomes is their degree of adaptation to country context, and the largest differences between ratings and actual impact occur in large projects in institutionally weak settings
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10532
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  • 67
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    Revisiting the Distributive Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Colombia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (91 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baquero, Juan Pablo Revisiting the Distributive Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Colombia
    Keywords: Distributiveimpact of Taxes ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Fiscal Policy ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending Impact Inequality ; Tax Law ; Transfer Impact on Poverty
    Abstract: Colombia is one of the most unequal countries in the region and the world. Given the redistributive role of fiscal policy, this study uses recent data from the 2021 Integrated Household Survey to explore the impacts of taxes and spending on poverty and inequality in Colombia. The study introduces innovations to the literature on Colombia, including an update of the fiscal microsimulation model to reflect the most recent economic context; an introduction of new fiscal policy parameters, such as gasoline subsidies and carbon taxes; and methodological improvements. The results show positive redistributive impacts, but these are considerably lower than those seen in other country members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Direct taxes and transfers reduce the Gini index from 0.543 to 0.505; and direct taxes, indirect taxes, subsidies, and monetary transfers reduce total poverty from 42.1 to 40.2 percent and extreme poverty from 16.1 to 11.7 percent. Direct taxes, transfers, and subsidies are progressive and contribute to poverty reduction, while indirect taxes such as the value-added tax or consumption tax are regressive and do not reduce poverty. This reflects a tax system that is progressive, but not progressive enough (with a low proportion of the population with high levels of income contributing), and cash transfer and subsidy programs that have room for improvement in their targeting
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10520
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  • 68
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    Mozambique Poverty Assessment, June 2023 : Poverty Reduction Setback in Times of Compounding Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Equity ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Areas
    Abstract: This report relies on several data sources. The main source providing the poverty, inequality and labor figures herein is the 2019/20 Household Budget Survey (Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar, IOF2019/2020) conducted by the National Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, INE) starting in November 2019 and spanning 13 months. The survey's sample was drawn from the 2017 Census and allows for poverty figures to be representative at national and provincial as well as rural and urban levels. The fieldwork included data collection from 13,297 households interviewed across four quarters as in previous surveys, to account for seasonality effects like the impact on households' consumption of relatively more abundant post-harvest periods. The starting point for the analysis is chapter 1, which synthesizes progress in reducing poverty between 2014-15 and 2019-20. This chapter also looks at the regional distribution of poverty, the impact of the pandemic, multidimensional poverty, the profile of the poor, changes in the responsiveness of poverty to growth, discusses trends in non-monetary dimensions of wellbeing, and simulates future poverty trends. Chapter 2 examines the distribution of growth and inequality reduction over the period, the pandemic's impact, discusses the growth-poverty-inequality relationship, assesses the spatial dimensions of poverty, and estimates the Human Opportunity Index for Mozambique. Chapter 3 focuses on labor markets and provides insights into labor force participation, unemployment, underemployment, employment sectors, child labor, and labor market demand conditions. Chapter 4 presents a fiscal incidence analysis and information on transfers. Chapter 5 examines the relevance of environmental shocks, assesses the impact of weather events on agricultural production and night-time light radiance in urban areas. It also models poverty and distributional impacts of climate change shocks and presents findings on climate change literacy in Mozambique. Finally, chapter 6 discusses a variety of policy implications
    DOI: 10.1596/40106
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  • 69
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    Identifying Skills Needs in Vietnam : The Survey of Detailed Skills (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Granata, Julia Identifying Skills Needs in Vietnam: The Survey of Detailed Skills
    Keywords: Digital Skills ; Employment ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; O*net ; Poverty Reduction ; Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) ; Remote Work ; Routine Skills ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Skills Toward Employability and Productivity (STEP) ; Social Protections and Labor ; Socioemotional Skills
    Abstract: This paper describes a new survey designed to collect comprehensive and granular information about required skills and tasks for detailed occupations in Vietnam. The Survey of Detailed Skills asks workers in Vietnam about their skills and tasks for a set of 30 occupations that are in demand or of strategic importance for economic growth. In doing so, the survey generates practical, detailed information at the occupation level that policy makers and practitioners can use to inform their efforts to build skills in Vietnam. The Survey of Detailed Skills makes several contributions. Most existing efforts to profile occupational skills and tasks in developing countries draw on data from other countries, most frequently the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) in the United States. However, recent research has shown that translating these data across countries via occupational crosswalks yields inaccurate results. The Survey of Detailed Skills is among the first surveys to collect detailed O*NET-type information at the detailed occupational level in a developing country setting. The collection of information about detailed skills means that these skills can be flexibly grouped into different categories (for example, socioemotional skills, digital skills, routine skills, and interpersonal skills) as needed. The use of a consistent scale anchored to the time spent using or performing a skill or task creates clarity for respondents while also yielding a measure of skill and task importance that is easily interpreted. The Survey of Detailed Skills requires outlays on administering the survey, and inclusion of all occupations in Vietnam with regular updating would require ongoing investment
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10565
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  • 70
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    Voices from Yemen (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Armed Conflict ; Children and Education ; Civil War ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Displacement ; Food Security ; Food Unaffordability ; Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Humanitarian Response ; Limited Health Care ; Living Costs ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction ; Reduced Food Intake ; Repeated Shocks
    Abstract: This report highlights respondents' lived experiences during Yemen's conflict as experts of their own experiences. This report aims to present the voices of Yemenis who have now spent eight years living through a civil war, economic crisis, and close to famine. This report is among the few authentically capturing Yemeni voices on a range of day-to-day issues from different governorates across the country. But arguably the small sample size limits ability to generalize findings. However, generalizing findings was not the intention of the report. For each theme, 'Voices from Yemen' presents a multi-stakeholder perspective to mitigate bias towards a single stakeholder group or geographical area. Moreover, the report's findings are in line with those in quantitative reports, such as 'Surviving in the Times of War' or the 'World Bank Phone Survey' report on food security. 'Voices from Yemen' presents a comprehensive picture of suffering derived from human stories behind the statistics. The conflict has made Yemeni lives unaffordable, uncertain, vulnerable, and often unbearable. The power of people's speech and the intensity of their stories narrate their grave vulnerabilities and the sense of helplessness and suffering the conflict has caused
    DOI: 10.1596/40351
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  • 71
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    Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo-Abril, Monica Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity Model ; Conditional Cash Transfers ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes fiscal incidence in El Salvador through a gender lens using the Commitment to Equity model. The study aims to identify fiscal policies that promote gender equality and facilitates evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at reducing gender disparities and promoting more inclusive fiscal policies. The analysis shows that fiscal policy is not pro-poor, as it can lead to a 3.1 percentage point increase in overall poverty using the USD 6.85 2017 purchasing power parity poverty line, disproportionately impacting particular groups. Households headed by single women with at least one child under six years old experience a poverty rate increase of 4.3 percentage points, reaching an alarming rate of 42.7 percent. An increasing gender gap in poverty rates is also observed among households where women are the sole providers. The results show that the net fiscal system can increase the incidence of poverty among this group by 4.3 percentage points. In comparison, it increases by only 2.3 percentage points among their male counterparts. A microsimulation exercise of potential fiscal reforms to improve the welfare position of these households reveals that a fiscal package eliminating indirect subsidies, social security exemptions for vulnerable groups, and conditional cash transfers to households that meet certain conditions could reverse these unfavorable outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10547
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  • 72
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    Fiscal Policy and Equity : Vietnam 2018 Fiscal Incidence Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy and Equity: Vietnam 2018 Fiscal Incidence Analysis
    Keywords: Equity and Development ; Fiscal Incidende ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Social Spending ; Taxation ; Transfers
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributive and poverty reducing effects of Vietnam's fiscal system in 2018. The paper looks at the incidence across the distribution and the effect of (direct and indirect) taxes, subsidies, and social spending (in cash and in-kind) on inequality and poverty in Vietnam using the Commitment to Equity methodology. The overall pattern of taxes and transfers in Vietnam is moderately progressive, but most households pay more in taxes and co-payments than what they receive in cash benefits, and the fiscal system results in a small increase in poverty. The progressivity of the fiscal system and its inequality-reduction impact mostly comes from in-kind health and education spending. This reduction in inequality is about average for lower-middle-income countries, but Vietnam could do more to increase the progressivity of its fiscal system
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10538
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  • 73
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    Where is Poverty Concentrated? : New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban andPoverty Measurements (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (96 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Where is Poverty Concentrated? New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban andPoverty Measurements
    Keywords: Cost of Living ; Global Poverty ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measurement Framework ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Statistic Comparison ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Poverty ; Urbanization
    Abstract: The lack of comparable urban definitions across countries has presented a significant challenge in effectively addressing poverty in both urban and rural areas. This study aims to tackle this issue by comparing subnational poverty statistics across countries, integrating internationally consistent definitions of urban areas into the World Bank's official global poverty measurement framework. Focusing primarily on 16 Sub-Saharan African countries, the analysis reveals that poverty rates tend to be lower in densely populated urban areas. However, the findings also highlight that urban areas have a higher concentration of impoverished populations than previously estimated. These results underscore the importance of employing consistent urban definitions in cross-country poverty analysis and call for a reevaluation of geographically targeted policies to expedite poverty reduction efforts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10620
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  • 74
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    Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030 : A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lofgren, Hans Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030: A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Model ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Growth Policy ; Equitable Growth ; Fiscal Policy ; Food Security ; Fragility ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Poverty Reduction ; SAM ; Social Accounting Matrix ; Social Development ; Sustainable Development Goal Simulation Model
    Abstract: Over nine years of violence and conflict have profoundly altered the Republic of Yemen's economy. The war has shattered the country's already fragile socioeconomic equilibria, affecting nearly every facet of life. Since the onset of the conflict, economic diagnostics have focused on descriptions of the deteriorating macro-fiscal and poverty conditions, lack of food security, and loss of capital accumulation. However, relatively little attention has gone toward the development of a forward-looking vision for the country, rooted in Yemen's current economic structure. This paper helps to fill this gap by presenting and analyzing a set of scenarios for Yemen's economy up to 2030. The analysis is based on a new version of the Sustainable Development Goal Simulation model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is applied to a new social accounting matrix (SAM) for Yemen. The new social accounting matrix has the virtue of consolidating sparce and often inconsistent Yemeni data from multiple sources (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations system) into a coherent framework that reflects the basic structure of the economy, both at the macro and sectoral levels. The simulation analysis is built around three broad scenarios spanning 2022 through 2030. The results suggest that if the conflict subsides, governance is strengthened, and the donor community provides crucial aid, considerable progress, including reduced poverty rates and improved living conditions, can be achieved by 2030. Given Yemen's low levels of infrastructure and human development, the potential payoffs from investments in these areas are great
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10599
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  • 75
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    Air Pollution Reduces Economic Activity : Evidence from India (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Behrer, A. Patrick Air Pollution Reduces Economic Activity: Evidence from India
    Keywords: Air Pollution ; Air Quality and Clean Air ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Health ; GDP Decline ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Particulate Pollution ; Poverty Reduction ; Sustainable Development
    Abstract: Exposure to fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) increases mortality and morbidity and reduces human capital formation and worker productivity. As a consequence, high levels of particulate pollution may adversely affect economic activity. Using a novel dataset of changes in the annual gross domestic product of Indian districts, this paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of ambient PM2.5 on district-level gross domestic product. Using daily temperature inversions as an instrument for pollution exposure, this paper finds that higher levels of particulate pollution reduce gross domestic product. The effect is non-trivial-the median annual increase in the level of PM2.5 reduces year-to-year changes in gross domestic product by 0.56 percentage points
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10515
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  • 76
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    Learning and Adapting for Outcomes through the Management Action Record 2023 : A World Bank Group Management Report on Implementation of IEG Recommendations (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: r02
    Keywords: Development Effectiveness ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; IEG Implementation ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Progress Towards Outcomes ; World Bank Self-Assessment ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Management Action Record (MAR) provides Management's annual self-assessment of World Bank Group (WBG)-wide progress in implementing recommendations from the Independent Evaluation Group's (IEG) major evaluations to deliver outcomes in key priority areas. The MAR is an important vehicle for monitoring the uptake of IEG evaluations; it aims to ensure that recommendations lead to targeted actions that help shape the WBG's strategic directions, improve its development effectiveness, and ultimately help countries achieve their development goals. This year's MAR report provides updates on 59 recommendations from 22 IEG evaluations issued between FY19 and FY22, covering a diverse range of areas of strategic importance to the WBG. Building on progress achieved over the previous reporting cycles since the 2020 MAR Reform, this year's MAR process featured enhanced candor in the self-assessment, a broader evidence base, and a widening of the teams involved in providing feedback to IEG for richer reporting. During this year's MAR update cycle, Management continued its more intensive engagement approach, with more touchpoints, to enhance the MAR's learning focus and build understanding between evaluators and technical staff. This has included the facilitation of dozens of evaluation-specific working meetings with IEG, involving over 130 participants from across the WBG, with representation from all relevant WB Global Practices, IFC, and MIGA regional and industry teams
    DOI: 10.1596/40550
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  • 77
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    Background Note on Bringing Climate Change into Vulnerability Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 39458
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Environment ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Vulnerability Analysis ; Water Resources Institutions and Participations ; Weather Shocks ; Weather Vulnerability ; Welfare Impact
    Abstract: Weather vulnerability is often assessed using historical data, but this can be very misleading in a world of changing climate. Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, while climate is the weather averaged over a long period. With climate change, some places are becoming wetter, some drier, and extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones, are becoming more likely. Hence, the nature of weather risks will vary considerably. Despite the magnitude of this shift, there is currently no widely accepted method for bringing climate change into catastrophe risk modeling. The objective of this note is to review, compare, and contrast the different techniques used in this literature to include climate change into vulnerability analysis. To do so, it summarizes recent research papers exploring how to bring climate change into catastrophe risk modeling. The note builds on this review to propose and explain a robust methodology and highlight its potential caveats. As such, this note is a first step towards unifying approaches and disseminating the analysis of climate change in vulnerability analysis. The method proposed in this note can be applied by researchers, economists, and public policy practitioners to study a wide range of topics, from the impact of climate change on diseases to stress-testing social protection programs
    DOI: 10.1596/40533
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  • 78
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    Europe and Central Asia Macro Poverty Outlook : Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Climate Change Impacts ; Debt Indicators ; Economic Growth ; Education ; Environment ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; GHG ; Inflation ; Life Expectancy At Birth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Indicators ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Europe and Central Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
    DOI: 10.1596/40474
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  • 79
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    Unlocking the Potential of Women and Adolescent Girls in Madagascar - Challenges and Opportunities in Increasing Women's and Girls' Economic Empowerment : Cahier 3 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Equity and Development ; Female Economic Participation ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Governance ; Gender Disparity ; Gender Inequality ; Human Rights ; Institutional Barriers To Economic Empowerment ; Poverty Reduction ; Women and Girls Opportunity
    Abstract: This thematic note is part of a broader mixed-method study on gender inequalities in Madagascar, which intends to illustrate the key gender gaps in the country and shed light on the unique challenges that young Malagasy women face in their educational, professional, and family trajectories. Due to the persistence of financial, social, and institutional barriers, Malagasy women and girls encounter significant disadvantages across all dimensions of well-being and are unable to access opportunities in an equal manner with men and boys in the country. They are largely constrained in their ability to accumulate human capital in education and health, and to participate in economic opportunities; and they face severe limitations in agency and decision-making, particularly with respect to family formation. Women and girls also appear to be disproportionally affected by the impacts of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, which further widen preexisting gender gaps and amplify vulnerability to poverty, violence, and discrimination. This thematic note provides in-depth insights into the status of women and girls' economic opportunities in Madagascar and proposes several strategic lines of action to enhance women's economic empowerment. This note is accompanied by the overview of all study findings and three thematic notes that present in-depth insights in the following key dimensions: education, health, and agency
    DOI: 10.1596/40430
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  • 80
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    Delivering Digital G2P Payments to Urban Informal Populations : Lessons and Future Policy Implications from COVID-19 Responses (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2153
    Keywords: Access To Digital Infrastructure ; Access To Financial Infrastructure ; Digital Divide ; Government To Person Payments (G2P) ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Social Protection Rapid Deployment ; Urban Informal Sector ; Urban Partnerships and Poverty ; Urban Poverty ; Use of Big Data
    Abstract: The COVID-19 response in many Sub-Saharan African countries included the rapid deployment of social protection programs leveraging digital systems to counteract the income losses that were disproportionately experienced by urban informal populations. Using data from three in-depth country case studies, this paper finds that these digital government-to-person (G2P) payments contributed to countries reaching beneficiaries quickly and safely and that G2P payments may be particularly viable in urban, as compared to rural, areas due to greater access to digital and financial infrastructure, creative use of big data, and population density that allows for mass communication. However, there are still pockets of exclusion in urban areas emerging from incomplete digital access, limited financial inclusion, underdeveloped financial ecosystems, and high population mobility. It is particularly challenging to identify, communicate with, assess, and deliver G2P services to informal workers in urban areas due to their non-registration status, variable income flows, the blending of the home and household enterprises into a single entity, and the governments' limited experience in identifying eligible beneficiaries within this segment. While adopting a digital G2P architecture provides a promising avenue to strengthen the safety nets for this segment in the region, exclusion challenges remain. Given the ubiquity of urban informality in the region, countries will need to work to include the urban informal in foundational digital systems, such as national IDs and social registries, adopt flexible regulatory and hybrid delivery models to address the sector's varied needs, and seek to foster robust digital payment ecosystems to maximize the potential for spillover benefits
    DOI: 10.1596/40422
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  • 81
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    Productive Longevity : What can Work in Low- and Middle-Income Countries? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Johansson de Silva, Sara Productive Longevity: What can Work in Low- and Middle-Income Countries?
    Keywords: Aging ; Aging Populations and Social Protection ; Employable Skills ; Employment Incentives Labor Supply ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor and Employment Law ; Labor Market Policy and Aging ; Labor Productivity ; Law and Development ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The world's population is aging at dramatic speed. By 2050, most of the world's seniors (aged 65+) will be living in what are currently low- and middle-income countries. Aging will require low- and middle-income countries to develop comprehensive policy solutions to sustain welfare levels and ensure that welfare is equitably distributed across generations and socioeconomic groups. Given higher informality and lower human capital levels in low- and middle-income countries than more advanced economies, the balance and composition of the policy package in these contexts may differ, but there will be a common need for labor market policies to increase "productive longevity"--that is, to foster higher labor force participation and productivity among mature workers. This paper presents a framework identifying market, institutional, and behavioral failures that create constraints to productive longevity, and policies that may overcome these constraints. Drawing, to the extent possible, on the experience of low- and middle-income countries, the paper reviews evidence on supply-side and demand-side interventions to improve incentives, remove barriers to work, and invest in skills, as well as policies to improve matching of mature workers in labor markets. The paper ends with a discussion of meta-lessons for low- and middle-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10636
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  • 82
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    Country Case Study Fiji - Containing, Mitigating, and Responding to COVID-19 : Knowledge Generation and Exchange, Preparedness, and Response (March 2020 to June 2022) (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: Covid Vaccination ; Covid-19 Impact ; Gender-Based Violence ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Immunizations ; Inequality ; Pandemic Response Case Study ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Health Promotion ; Public Health Response To Covid ; Universal Health Coverage
    Abstract: The Fiji government responded quickly and moved decisively with stringent measures following the identification of the first COVID-19 case and took various effective measures to prevent its spread. It has been quick to implement public health emergency measures including lockdowns, curfews, physical distancing, travel restrictions, and international border closures to prevent imported cases of the virus. While the Fiji government used its endorsed Health and Emergencies Disaster Management Plan (HEADMAP) and did not view the pandemic as a new concept requiring a new approach, its application remains one that is innovative and potentially transformative, especially for Fiji and the Pacific region. A total of 65,713 cases (7,426 per 100,000 population) and 866 deaths (98 per 100,000 population) have been reported up until June 30, 2022. The Ministry of Health and Medical Services (MoHMS) in Fiji mobilized its staff to serve at designated fever clinics and isolation facilities in hospitals and communities, and it gradually increased its sentinel sites for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, with additional capacity to undertake GeneXpert COVID-19 testing. Since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was identified in Fiji on March 19, 2020, the government of Fiji has taken proactive and effective measures, including nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as school and workplace closure, community quarantine, limiting size of meetings, restricting travel, stay-at-home guidelines for high-risk people, teleworking, closure of high risk venues, and personal hygiene measures; active surveillance and case detection; and appropriate case management using various strategies including fever clinics, contact tracing, supervision, and home quarantine to ensure safe delivery of clinical services. The pandemic has disproportionately impacted the most vulnerable and marginalized groups, including women, children, older people, young people, persons with disabilities, the LGBTQI+ community, single and women-headed households, and poor households, with escalating rates of gender-based violence being reported. Although there are many challenges faced in adequately containing and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the lessons learned could provide valuable insights for policy makers and researchers globally
    DOI: 10.1596/40752
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  • 83
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    How Korea's National Health Insurance (NHI) Responded to the COVID-19 Pandemic : Policy Note (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Access To Health Care ; Covid-19 Response ; Gender ; Gender and Health ; Health Care Providers Financial Risk ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Healthcare Equity ; National Health Insurance ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Past experience of emerging infectious diseases enabled the Republic of Korea to respond promptly to COVID-19. The government's zero out-of-pocket strategy, dedicated funding to infectious diseases, previously reformed legal and policy frameworks, and proactive risk communication minimized the impact of COVID-19 on the population's health and economy. Pre-existing universal health coverage (UHC) and the role of national health insurance (NHI) contributed to lessening this burden. The National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) reduced premiums for vulnerable populations, facilitated early financing to health care providers, provided free COVID-19-related services, and increased benefit packages covering all populations in the country. The integrated health data system managed by the NHIS was used for customized treatments and enabled policy decisions during the pandemic. Data analysis for this note shows that there were no significant socioeconomic disparities in the COVID-19 prevalence, mortality, and vaccination rates
    DOI: 10.1596/40704
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  • 84
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    Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? : Evidence from India (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Berg, Claudia Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? Evidence from India
    Keywords: Colonial Railroad ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Credit Market Imperfections ; Farming Technology ; Golden Quadrilateral ; Gravity Measures ; Increasing Returns ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Land Administration ; Land Inequality ; Landlessness ; Market Integration ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Transport Infrastructure
    Abstract: Investments in transport infrastructure lower trade costs and lead to integration of villages with urban markets. Does spatial market integration increase land inequality in rural areas Theoretical analysis by Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) suggests that the interactions of lower trade costs with credit market imperfections can increase land inequality. The primary mechanism is the adoption of increasing returns technology by large landowners facing lower trade costs which makes it more profitable to expand their scale by buying land from small, credit-constrained farmers. Using high- quality household survey data (the India Human Development Survey) on land ownership in rural districts of India, this paper provides the first evidence on the effects of market integration on land ownership inequality. It develops an instrumental variables approach exploiting two sources of exogenous variation: the location of a rural district relative to the Golden Quadrilateral network (an inconsequential place design) and the length of colonial railroad in the 1880s in a district (a historical infrastructure design). This paper discusses and deals with potential objections to the exclusion restrictions. The evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in a gravity measure of market access increases the land Gini coefficient by 2.5 percent and the share of landless households by 6.8 percent. This paper finds evidence consistent with the Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) hypothesis that the interaction of credit market imperfections with lower trade costs increases land inequality: a 10 percent increase in market access increases the adoption of increasing returns farming technology by 3.5 percent. There is a positive effect on land sales, but the instrumental variables estimates are imprecise. The robustness of the conclusions is checked by relaxing the exclusion restrictions using the Conley and others (2012) approach, and the bias-adjusted ordinary least squares estimator of Oster (2019) that does not impose any exclusion restrictions. The estimated effects of market access cannot be accounted for by the colonial land revenue system, demographic pressure on land, and differences in inheritance law between the Hindu and Muslim population in a district
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10286
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  • 85
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    Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kochhar, Nishtha Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change and Health ; Drought ; Food Consumption ; Food Insecurity ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Natural Disaster ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Social Development ; Social Protection and Climate Change
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the 2018 drought on household consumption and poverty in Afghanistan, a semi-arid and conflict-affected country. The paper combines geolocated household data with remote-sensing weather data on precipitation, vegetation, and temperature. The findings show that drought-like conditions decreased monthly per capita consumption expenditures and hence increased poverty, with a highly nonlinear relationship between consumption and weather shocks. When forced to cut back, households reduced nonfood consumption to maintain their food consumption; only under severe stress did they reduce food consumption. Households that owned agricultural land were more resilient to the 2018 drought. Based on the historical distribution of weather shocks, estimates of vulnerability to poverty suggest that 62.5 percent of people have a one in four probability of falling into poverty due to weather shocks. Given that climate change will exacerbate the frequency and severity of future droughts, these findings highlight the importance of investments in resilience and shock-responsive social protection to supplement urgent humanitarian assistance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10272
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  • 86
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    Poverty Mapping in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Fay-Herriot Model ; Geographic Approach ; Municipality Level ; Poverty Mapping ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Spatial Representation
    Abstract: Poverty mapping, the spatial representation and analysis of human wellbeing and poverty indicators is becoming an increasingly important instrument for investigating and discussing socioeconomic issues, informing targeting efforts, and guiding the geographic allocation of resources. One approach to addressing poverty is the geographic approach. In the geographic approach, poor people are identified and targeted through poverty maps. Indeed, the geographical approach is one of the methods used worldwide for targeting anti-poverty programs to reduce the gaps in social protection coverage of poor and vulnerable groups, and it has been widely implemented in several countries around the world. In 2020, the Salvador's General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses (DIGESTYC) and the World Bank started working on the project 'Poverty mapping in El Salvadora'. The project is part of the government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Programme, which is performed by experts of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and the World Bank (WB). The main objective is to calculate the shares of households living in moderate and extreme poverty at disaggregated territorial levels (municipalities). Poverty mapping enhances our understanding of the geographic distribution of people living in poverty. This report presents poverty maps at the municipality level based on the Fay-Herriot model for small-area estimations
    DOI: 10.1596/39424
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  • 87
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    Welfare and Climate Risks in Coastal Bangladesh : The Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Multidimensional Poverty and the Wider Benefits of Climate Adaptation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Verschuur, Jasper Welfare and Climate Risks in Coastal Bangladesh: The Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Multidimensional Poverty and the Wider Benefits of Climate Adaptation
    Keywords: Adaptation Co-Benefits ; Climate Change ; Coastal Risk ; Cyclone Hazard Data ; Environmental Risk ; Household Survey ; Multidimensional Poverty Index ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Welfare Implications
    Abstract: It is widely recognized that climate hazards impact the poor disproportionately. However, quantifying these disproportionate hazard impacts on a large scale is difficult given limited information on households' location and socioeconomic characteristics, and incomplete quantitative frameworks to assess welfare impacts on households. This paper constructs a household-level multidimensional poverty index using a synthetic household dataset of 43 million people residing in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. Households are spatially linked to the critical infrastructure networks they depend on, including housing; water, sanitation, and hygiene; electricity; education; and health services. Combined with detailed cyclone hazard data, the paper first quantifies risks to households, agriculture, and infrastructure. It then presents a novel framework for translating critical infrastructure impacts into the temporary incidence of service deprivations, which can contribute to temporary deprivations and hence multidimensional poverty. The paper uses this framework to evaluate the benefits of various adaptation options. The findings show that asset risk due to flooding is USD 483 million per year at present, increasing to USD 750 million per year in 2050 under climate change. Households face an average infrastructure service disruption of two days per year, which is expected to increase to 4.6 days per year in 2050. This, in turn, would incur a temporary increase in multidimensional poverty (7.2 percent of people are multidimensionally poor at the baseline) of up to 94 percent (2.9 million people) 30 days after an extreme cyclone event (a 1-in-100 years event) at present and 153.9 percent (4.8 million people) in the future. The paper quantifies the large welfare benefits of upgrading embankments, showing how apart from significant risk reduction, these interventions reduce service disruptions by up to 70 percent in some areas and can help up to 1.6 million (0.23 million under current and proposed programs) people from experiencing some form of temporary poverty. Overall, the paper identifies poor households exposed to climate impacts, as well as those prone to falling into poverty temporarily, both ofcould help to mainstream equity considerations in new adaptation programs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10373
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 88
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    Indonesia Poverty Assessment : Pathways towards Economic Security (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Aspiring Upper Middle-Income Goals ; Meeting Poverty Reduction Goals ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Poverty Reduction Targets ; PPP Poverty Line ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: Indonesia can build on its impressive track-record of poverty reduction to tackle more ambitious poverty reduction targets. Indonesia has made impressive gains in reducing poverty, with previously lagging regions catching up, and the Government's goal to eliminate extreme poverty by 2024 practically met. As an aspiring upper middle-income country, however, Indonesia may want to widen its focus beyond extreme poverty by moving from the USD 1.90 2011 PPP poverty line to higher lines for middle-income countries. The focus should also include economically insecure households susceptible to falling back into poverty. Is Indonesia's current effort ready for this challenge Human capital outcomes are disappointing and worrying geographic disparities remain. Low productivity still prevents households from becoming economically secure. Shocks, including from climate change, continue to threaten reversal in poverty gains. In this report the authors identify several major pathways to tackle these challenges in a comprehensive and sustainable manner
    DOI: 10.1596/39799
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 89
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    Towards Better Labor Migration Systems in Northern Central America : Overview of Findings from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Foreign Labor Markets ; International Access ; Labor Markets ; Labor Migration ; Legal Framework ; NCA Countries ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This note aims to close the knowledge gap about the effectiveness and capacity of labor migration sending systems in NCA countries. The report assesses whether NCA countries have the fundamental elements of an effective labor migration sending system, identifies the missing elements, and offers recommendations for strengthening the systems over time. Filling such a knowledge gap is critical to inform policies that maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of economic migration. Programs and policies that help expand legal pathways for regular migration will not only promote mutually beneficial migration, but could be a step, albeit small, towards dissuading individuals from pursuing risky migration patterns. Indeed, evidence from Mexico indicates that investing in legal labor pathways can reduce irregular migration (Clemens and Gough, 2018). In this context, this note summarizes the main findings from three institutional diagnostics of the labor migration sending systems in NCA countries, with a view to deepening the understanding of the supply side of labor flows. To this end, and building on previous World Bank experience globally, a diagnostic tool was developed to identify what steps the NCA governments have taken to recognize and respond to foreign demand for workers. The tool examines if appropriate structures, systems, processes, and resources exist to prepare and deliver adequate labor supply arrangements in the context of bilateral agreements (BLAs) or Temporary Work Agreements (TWAs) with other countries. The diagnostic tool is organized around four main pillars to regulate, facilitate, fortify, and further access of labor migrants to international labor markets
    DOI: 10.1596/40131
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 90
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    Liberia Economic Update, June 2023 : Getting Rice Right for Productivity and Poverty Alleviation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Financial Sector ; Fiscal Policy ; Growth and Poverty ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rice Economy
    Abstract: In the last two years, Liberia's economic performance has improved. Inflation remained in single digits despite high global food and fuel prices and a relaxation in monetary and fiscal policies. Liberia's poverty rate is projected to have declined slightly in the last two years as GDP growth rebounds and inflation moderates. On the external side, Liberia's current account balance improved in 2022, thanks to the continued increase in mining export earnings. The increase in gold export in 2022 offset the increase in imports. Liberia's medium-term economic outlook is positive, but uncertainties remain. Even as it has been trying to recover from a decade of weak economic and social performance, Liberia's overall productivity and economic efficiency remain low, especially in vital sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Demographic trends, economic growth, and a strong preference for rice are the main drivers of demand. Yet, Liberia produces only one-third of its rice needs due to several constraints, including limited access to technology, inefficient farming practices, low public and private investments, and a fragmented value chain, among other factors that have kept productivity low. Amid low production, the increase in imported rice prices continues to fuel food insecurity, poverty, and vulnerabilities in Liberia. Domestic production would need to triple to satisfy local demand, but increasing production would require significant investments in the rice sector, as well as policy actions. This report provides some broad directions for policies
    DOI: 10.1596/40108
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 91
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    Seventh Ghana Economic Update : Price Surge - Unraveling Inflation's Toll on Poverty and Food Security (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: DEBT Management ; Fiscal Sector ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Ghana's economy entered a full-blown crisis in 2022, after having rebounded from the COVID-19 slowdown in 2021. In response to the macroeconomic challenges, the authorities enacted some fiscal adjustment in 2022 but fell short of their consolidation targets; the 2023Q1 fiscal deficit (cash) was within target. Expenditure consolidation and revenue mobilization continued to be hampered by structural constraints. To address these unsustainable domestic and external imbalances, the authorities embarked on a comprehensive debt restructuring operation. Against the backdrop, growth is projected to decelerate further in 2023-24, before picking up in the medium-term. The government has embarked on an ambitious fiscal consolidation plan: however, delivering on it will require addressing long-standing revenue mobilization and budget control weaknesses. In 2023, the authorities intend to finance the fiscal deficit from multilateral (and other official) sources, in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - supported program, and from the domestic treasury bills (T-bills) market. In addition, leveraging government programs to build up resilience against vulnerability is an imperative and should not be suspended during the crisis. Beefing up the government's payments through the livelihood empowerment against poverty will be critical. Second, support for food self-sufficiency is needed in Ghana (a goal for many countries now due to the global food crisis), while opening the country to generate more export revenues. The Ghana Tree Crops Diversification Project can serve as a critical puzzle piece of the country's current challenges. The project will support poverty alleviation while setting the country up to generate more foreign revenues in the medium to long-term
    DOI: 10.1596/40064
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 92
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    Climate and Equity : A Framework to Guide Policy Action (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change Impact ; Climate Change Impacts ; Environment ; Equity and Development ; Future Hazards ; Policy Actions ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Reducing the impact of climate change on poor and vulnerable households is essential to hastening poverty reduction. In thinking about policies that do this, it is useful to apply the same hazard, exposure and vulnerability framework that is often used to understand the physical impacts of climate change and add the non-climate benefits and costs to households that these policies can also bring. Policies that reduce hazards and vulnerability whilst bringing non-climate benefits-triple win policies-are not very common, but where possible they should be prioritized. Policies that reduce vulnerability and bring non-climate benefits are more common. However, some development policies that bring non-climate benefits, particularly in higher-income and higher-growth countries, may increase emissions by enough to worsen future hazards, so their emissions impact needs to be managed with compensating actions. Policies that reduce the hazards faced by poor households are needed, and the non-climate cost of these policies on poor people should be minimized or compensated where it cannot be avoided
    DOI: 10.1596/39952
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  • 93
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    Do Shocks Perpetuate Disparities within and across Informal Firms? : Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Grover, Arti Do Shocks Perpetuate Disparities within and across Informal Firms? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia
    Keywords: COVID Shock To Informal Firms ; COVID-19 Economic Recovery ; COVID-19 Impact ; Equity and Development ; Firms in Crisis ; Informality ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Private Sector Support
    Abstract: Using three rounds of data from the Business Pulse Survey in South Asia, this paper studies the differential effects of the COVID-19 shock on informal firms. It also captures heterogeneity within informal firms based on the degree and motivation of informality. The findings suggest that the severity of the impact of the COVID-19 shock and the recovery speed are strongly associated with the degree of informality. Firms' external attributes, such as size, sector, age, and gender of the owner, do not explain the depth of the impact. Internal characteristics such as poor management capabilities and education of the manager and owners are strong predictors of vulnerability among informal firms. In particular, necessity firms experience a larger drop in sales relative to the parasitic type of informal firms. To add to this, the adjustment response (for example, the use of digital platforms) of informal firms is smaller, which perpetuates the gap between formal and informal firms. Within informal firms, the parasitic type typically have a smaller adjustment response. These findings have implications for policies to support the private sector in the presence of informality, including considerations pertaining to targeting, modality of support, and the instruments required for designing more impactful programs during shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10579
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 94
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    Job Training and Job Search Assistance Policies in Developing Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Carranza, Eliana Job Training and Job Search Assistance Policies in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Active Labor Market Policy ; Employment and Unemployment ; Job Search Assistance ; Job Training Effectiveness ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; Worker Skills Training
    Abstract: Governments around the developing world face pressure to intervene actively to help jobseekers find employment. Two of the most common policies used are job training, based on the idea that many of those seeking jobs lack the skills employers want, and job search assistance, based on the possibility that even if workers have the skills demanded, search and matching frictions make it difficult for workers to be hired in the jobs that need these skills. However, reviews of the first generation of evaluations of these programs found typical impacts to be small, casting doubt on the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of these programs. This paper reexamines the arguments for whether, when, and how developing country governments should undertake job training and job search assistance policies. The authors use their experience with policy implementation, and evidence from recent impact evaluations, to argue that there is still a role for governments in using these programs. However, success depends critically on program design and delivery elements that can be difficult to scale effectively, and in many cases the binding constraint may be a lack of firms with job openings, rather than a lack of workers with the skills to fill these openings
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10576
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 95
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    Inequality of Opportunity and Investment Choices (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brock, J. Michelle Inequality of Opportunity and Investment Choices
    Keywords: Economic Investment and Savings ; Equity and Development ; Income Distribution ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Investment Choices ; Investment Risk ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Peer Effects on Personal Investment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity leads to misallocation of human capital and can affect economies via its impact on individual economic decision making. This paper studies the impact of inequality of opportunity on investment, using a laboratory experiment. The experiment randomized inequality of opportunity, then subjects chose to invest in a risky asset or savings. The results suggest that inequality of opportunity impacts investment choices only for people who are penalized by their circumstances and only once they learn the impact of inequality of opportunity on their relative position in the income distribution. This disadvantaged group invests more often and invests higher shares of their earnings than the control and advantaged groups. The fact that both inequality of opportunity and knowledge of relative position need to be present for the impact on investment to materialize points to the importance of peer effects. More broadly, the paper highlights the relevance of social preferences for understanding the effects of inequality of opportunity on individual decision making
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10569
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 96
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    A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts : Evidence from Turkiye (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baez, Javier E A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts: Evidence from Turkiye
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Growth ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Data on National Income ; Economic Development Analysis ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth Cycles ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Analyses ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measurement of National Income ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Economic Activity ; Spatial Inequality
    Abstract: This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Turkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector's gross value added during the post-2009 rebound-consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity-with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10553
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 97
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    Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers : Evidence from Mexico (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arias, Francisco Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Mexico
    Keywords: Difference in Difference ; Education ; Education and Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Employment ; Job Displacement ; Job Loss Impact by Education ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Wages ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of -7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from -7.5 to -4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10536
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  • 98
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    Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks
    Keywords: Economic Insecurity ; Economic Sentiment ; Expectations ; Living Standards ; Living Standards Measurement Survey Data ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Phone Survey ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality of Life and Leisure ; Schocks ; Social Development ; Uncertainty
    Abstract: Against the background of high inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food insecurity, this study documents the state of economic sentiments and expectations of households in five African countries--Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda--that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. Leveraging nationally representative phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five countries report that their financial situation and their country's economic situation have worsened significantly in the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are more positive, there are marked differences across countries that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly report prices to have increased considerably over the past 12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of households--home to 206 million individuals--further expect that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment, and sentiments about the household financial situation, country economic situation, price increases, and climate shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial situation has worsened in the past year are consistently more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure households, in particular, are not only more likely to report a worsening financial situation in the recent past and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10604
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 99
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    Dominican Republic Poverty Assessment 2023 : Fast Tracking Poverty Reduction and Prosperity for All (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2118
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Monetary Poverty ; Non-Monetary Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Assistance
    Abstract: In recent decades, economic growth in the Dominican Republic (DR) has been steady. However, growth has not occurred in such a way as to make the benefits widely and evenly available. In fact, although the DR economy grew faster than that of other LAC countries before the Covid-19 pandemic, its poverty rates and social outcomes remain broadly similar to them. This report seeks to explain this conundrum, as well as to expand the knowledge base to improve the effectiveness of ongoing poverty reduction policies in the DR. The Poverty Assessment draws primarily on new analytical work conducted in the DR, structured around four background notes on: (i) trends in monetary poverty and inequality, as well as the key drivers of those changes; (ii) nonmonetary poverty and its spatial dimensions; (iii) social assistance programs and their role in mitigating poverty; and (iv) climate change and its interaction with poverty. By helping to reduce the evidence gap in each of these areas, our analysis hopes to inform government policies and the national dialogue on poverty reduction. In addition, the note integrates existing analytical work and evidence produced inside and outside the Bank, including from its operations in the country
    DOI: 10.1596/40565
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  • 100
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    Droughts and Deficits : The Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Zaveri, Esha D Droughts and Deficits: The Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth
    Keywords: Agricultural Growth and Rural Development ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Resilience ; Drought ; GDP Growth and Drought ; Green Water ; Land Use ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Rainfall ; Rainfall Shocks ; Rural Development ; Soil Moisture
    Abstract: As climate change intensifies, dry rainfall shocks and droughts are a growing concern. At the same time, scientific evidence suggests that the world has surpassed the safe planetary boundary for green water, which is water stored in biomass and soil that is crucial for maintaining climate resilience. Yet, evidence at the global scale of these combined forces on economic growth is poorly understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap by using data on annual subnational gross domestic product for 82 countries from 1990-2014. Using rainfall shocks as plausibly exogenous variations in a spatially specific panel at the grid level, the analysis finds that the global effects of droughts on economic activity are substantial. Moderate to extreme droughts reduce gross domestic product per capita growth between 0.39 and 0.85 percentage point, on average, depending on the level of development and baseline climatic conditions, with low- and middle-income countries in arid areas sustaining the highest relative losses. In high-income countries, moderate droughts have no impact, and only extreme droughts have adverse effects, reducing growth by about 0.3 percentage point, a little less than half the impact felt in the low- and middle-income country sample for the same intensity of drought. Crucially, the impact of a dry shock of a given magnitude also depends on antecedent green water availability. The results show that increases in soil moisture in previous years can neutralize the harmful impacts from a dry shock, with suggestive evidence that local and upstream forest cover are key channels through which these impacts manifest. These findings have important implications for measuring the economic impact of droughts and can inform adaptation investments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10453
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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