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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (717)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (717)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • Poverty Reduction  (717)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cortina Toro, Magdalena Little Nomads: Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children
    Keywords: Child Migration ; Education Services ; Migration ; Migration Influence on Children ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main findings from 110 studies produced between 1990 and 2023, focusing on the impact of migration on various child groups affected through the migration path, including left-behind, immigrant (including voluntary and forced), and native children. The findings reveal that migration's influence on children's outcomes is complex and context- dependent, and it is dramatically influenced by household demographics and public policies. Key findings include the following: (i) left-behind children benefit from remittances but experience dramatic declines in their cognitive and non-cognitive development due to parental absence; (ii) immigrant children generally fare better than those in their origin countries but still underperform compared to native children in host countries; and (iii) the impacts of migration on native children is largely dependent on the adjustment of public service supply to the increased demand for public services. In cases where education services expand to meet rising demand, the effect on native children can be minimal or even positive. The paper emphasizes the need for more experimental or quasi-experimental research examining the effectiveness of programs supporting migrant and minor host children and calls for longitudinal data collection for better understanding the challenges and needs of migrant children, particularly in developing countries
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambler, Kate Rural Labor and Long Recall Loss
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Labor Supply ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Household Survey ; Rural Labor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Surveys frequently rely on annual recall to capture individuals' labor activities over the preceding year. This paper uses a panel of rural households in Malawi for a survey experiment to test the effect of a long, annual recall window on reported labor supply relative to a set of quarterly interviews. The paper documents large losses in reported labor participation using the long recall window with reductions of over 20 percent of reported activities and months worked and a 2.5 times greater incidence of reported unemployment relative to the shorter window. These losses are greater for activities further in the past and especially for individuals whose labor supply is reported by other family members, reaching up to 50 percent for some outcomes. The profile of households' primary respondents, predominantly male and older, and differential effects by age further suggest that long recall may cause meaningful biases in the resulting data for women and younger household members
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fietz, Katharina Exit Patterns from Brazil's Bolsa Familia and the Role of the Local Labor Market
    Keywords: Bolsa Familia ; Conditional Cash Transfer ; Dynamic Means-Tested Cash Transfer ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Workers ; Social Protection Program Graduation ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Can rising tides in the labor market lift the poor out of social assistance Although a substantial literature has studied the capacity of safety nets to expand automatically during labor market shocks, less is known about the dynamics of social assistance when labor market conditions improve, and who may benefit from positive changes. This paper studies how rising formal employment at the municipal level affects the likelihood of beneficiary families to exit Bolsa Familia, Brazil's dynamic means-tested cash transfer. The analysis exploits panel data from Brazil's vast social registry, matched with seven years of Bolsa Familia payroll information and formal employment records. The data reveal that the Bolsa Familia program displays significant and heterogeneous dynamism, with beneficiaries with higher levels of education and fewer constraints to labor supply taking fewer years to exit. The analysis then uses fixed-effects estimates, combined with an instrumental variable approach, to identify the effects of exogenous changes in the local labor market on exits. The findings show that the increase in local employment leads to a small, statistically significant rise in the probability of exiting from Bolsa Familia. These effects are concentrated in households with spare labor supply and those with medium levels of education
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo Labor Market Participation and Employment Choice in Ghana: Do Individual Personality Traits and Gender Role Attitudes Matter?
    Keywords: Education ; Employment Outcome ; Employment Preference ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Gender Role Attitudes ; Informal Sector Measurement Study ; Labor Markets ; Multi-Stage Sampling ; Personality Traits ; Poverty Reduction ; Secondary Education Equity ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: In addition to the conventional determinants of labor market participation and the choice between wage employment and self-employment, there is a growing interest of the significance of gender role attitudes and personality traits. This study uses data from the 2022 Ghana Informal Sector Measurement Study to investigate the influence of these factors on employment outcomes in the Northern and Ashanti regions of Ghana. The findings are based on a series of analyses, including descriptive, multinomial logistic, and linear probability model regressions. The empirical results show the critical role played by both gender role attitudes and personality traits in shaping individuals' decisions on labor market participation and employment choices. Notably, personality traits emerge as significant drivers of observed employment outcomes. However, the impact of these personality traits is often mitigated or even reversed in the presence of heightened traditionalism. Furthermore, the gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that possessing at least a secondary education level is a pivotal factor in the selection of men into formal employment, whereas this criterion holds less significance for women. Conversely, once the decision to participate in the labor market has been made, having at least a secondary education becomes relevant for securing wage employment, regardless of an individual's gender
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (97 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als AlAzzawi, Shireen Female Headship and Poverty in the Arab Region: Analysis of Trends and Dynamics Based on a New Typology
    Keywords: Female-Headed Households (FHH) ; Female-Headedness Typology ; Gender ; Household Survey Data ; Poverty Dynamics ; Poverty Feminization ; Poverty Reduction ; Synthetic Panels
    Abstract: Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have had mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyzes synthetic panels constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, the West Bank and Gaza, and Tunisia. The paper finds that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non--FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are the most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across measures of FHHs. The findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz The Costs Come before the Benefits: Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Assistance Need ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Displacement ; Financial Inclusion ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Humanitarian Aid ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Labor Market Inclusion ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugees ; Self-Reliance
    Abstract: When host countries allow refugees to earn income, two main groups benefit: refugees, who become financially autonomous, and international institutions that can reduce the humanitarian aid that would otherwise be needed to support refugees. Uganda is one of the more progressive countries when it comes to promoting the financial independence of refugees and shifting from humanitarian aid to development ways of working. This note considers how successful refugees in Uganda have been in becoming financially independent and estimates how assistance has been saved due to these efforts at economic inclusion. Using the international poverty line of USD 2.15 in 2017 purchasing power parities to proxy the costs of basic needs, the results suggest that the amount of total aid needed was reduced by almost 45 percent. They also show that many refugees live in poverty, implying that the present combination of aid and work is inadequate to assure a decent standard of living. While more assistance is needed in the short run, reductions in development assistance are feasible but require upfront investments in refugee earning capacity to realize them
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cho, Yoonyoung The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Depression and Pandemic ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Mental Health ; Mental Health Crisis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When it comes to mental health, do social protection programs matter more in times of crisis Using panel data from the Philippines around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study compares depression rates among beneficiaries of an existing conditional cash transfer program to those of non-beneficiaries of similar socioeconomic status. Depression rates were almost identical for the two groups in late 2019, but significantly lower for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries by July 2020, after the initiation of strict quarantine measures and a large emergency cash transfer program. One interpretation of the increased importance of the conditional cash transfer program during the pandemic is that these transfers have larger protective effects in times of vulnerability. Another possible reason is that the existing infrastructure of the program, by allowing for more timely distribution of the emergency cash, enhanced the effectiveness of the government's pandemic response for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries. This paper finds evidence supporting both explanations
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hauser, Christina Sarah Tackling Gender Discriminatory Inheritance Law Privately: Lessons from a Survey Experiment in Tunisia
    Keywords: Family Law ; Gender Discrimination ; Gifting ; Inheritance Law ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When reform of gender discriminatory law fails, individual action can offer a second-best solution. As most Muslim-majority countries, Tunisia applies Islamic inheritance law, systematically favoring sons over daughters. By making gifts to their daughter, parents can privately attenuate gender discrimination in inheritance. This study investigates to what extent gifting can represent an alternative to legal reform and for whom. Within a randomized experiment, this study tests whether providing information on public support for inheritance law reform and/or the possibility to make a gift to one's daughter has a causal impact on individual attitudes towards women's right to inheritance. The overall evidence on the effectiveness of the proposed informational treatments to encourage gifting is mixed. However, approval of gifting daughters is high--especially among the wealthy. Men are more likely to gift than women. By contrast, demand for legal reform is significantly higher among women and individuals with low educational attainment. The findings thus suggest that gifting indeed represents an alternative to legal reform; but mostly for a relatively well-off subset of the population, leaving the agency to the traditionally male head of the family
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa: More Unequal than we Thought
    Keywords: Circumstances ; Consumpton Inequality ; Equity and Development ; Inequality ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development
    Abstract: Unequal access to economic opportunity for individuals with different innate characteristics, such as ethnicity or parents' socioeconomic status, is often seen as both morally undesirable and bad for economic growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, or the share of inequality explained by birth characteristics, across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. For many countries, this is the first time inequality of opportunity is measured. The paper uses nationally representative household survey data harmonized to allow for cross-country comparisons. Using consumption per capita as the outcome, the findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated. On average, inherited circumstances explain more than half of inequality in the region. Estimates range from 40 to 60 percent in most countries and reach 74 percent in South Africa. The findings show that birthplace, parents' education, and ethnicity tend to be the most significant contributors, but there is large variation in the importance of circumstances across countries. This represents the most comprehensive estimate of inequality of opportunity to date in the poorest and one of the most unequal regions in the world, and it underscores the pressing need for policy makers to intensify their efforts to address inequality of opportunity to foster societies that are more equitable and unlock the full potential for growth in the region
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy, Poverty and Inequality in Jordan: The Role of Taxes and Public Spending
    Keywords: Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy and Inequality ; Income Inequality ; Poverty and Social Impact ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: Analysing who benefits from different taxes and spending is important to understand how fiscal policy is affecting poverty and inequality in Jordan. This study traces how the Jordanian fiscal system affects different households, while paying income tax and GST and benefiting from social assistance, and services, such as, cash transfers, electricity and water subsidies, education and health. The study finds that Jordan's current fiscal system is modestly progressive, but more could be achieved. Inequality, as measured by the Gini Index, falls 5.8 points between household market incomes and post-fiscal incomes (after paying income and consumption taxes as well as receiving government transfers and subsidized services). When considering only monetary taxes and benefits (that is, excluding non-cash education and health services), inequality falls by only 2.6 points and poverty would be almost the same as the official poverty rate. Nonetheless, the recent expansion of social assistance programs is making Jordan's fiscal policies more equalizing and there is scope for other reforms which would both close the fiscal gap while further reducing poverty and inequality
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Comparing Internally Displaced Persons with those Left Behind: Evidence from the Central African Republic
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Central African Republic ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Displacement ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Global poverty is increasingly becoming concentrated in conflict-affected settings. Therefore, assessing the welfare of those people displaced by conflict is of growing policy importance. Collecting and analyzing data on displaced people is challenging because sampling them is difficult, standard welfare metrics may not reflect their experiences, and they are highly heterogeneous. Assessing the welfare effects of displacement also hinges on constructing counterfactuals that show how internally displaced persons would have fared had they stayed in place. Displaced people typically come from a nonrandom subset of communities affected by conflict or other shocks, so comparing them with the rest of the population may be misleading. This paper addresses this issue using data from the Central African Republic, which recorded detailed information on displacement histories to isolate the communities from which those living in internally displaced person camps originated. Using these "catchment areas" for internally displaced person camps as a counterfactual suggests that although displaced households have lower monetary consumption and higher monetary poverty than the overall population, they may be no worse off on many key metrics than those left behind in the communities originally affected by conflict. Moreover, those left behind enjoy none of the benefits of being in camps, such as additional access to water and sanitation services. These results underline the importance of tailoring policies and data collection to consider those in communities originally affected by conflict, just as practitioners are doing for displaced populations
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia Assessing the Extent of Monetary Poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic after a Decade of Conflict
    Keywords: Data Deprivation ; Fragility and Conflict ; Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Nowcasting ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Social Development and Poverty
    Abstract: The data for estimating monetary poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic are outdated. In the context of data scarcity, this paper aims to propose a methodological approach to address the knowledge gap regarding welfare in Syria over the past decade. In particular, the analysis provides (i) updated pre-conflict poverty baseline estimates based on grouped data from the 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey; (ii) supporting evidence on the viability of using Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme Demographic and Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene 2022 survey data for the estimation of monetary poverty in 2022; and (iii) supporting theoretical and empirical evidence to identify growth in per capita gross domestic product in current prices deflated by Consumer Price Index as the best metric to project poverty using a nowcasting approach. Based on this analysis, the paper proposes to use 2022 Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme-based poverty estimates to anchor the most recent estimates to the best available evidence, and to interpolate the poverty evolution obtained from back-casting 2022 and nowcasting 2009 poverty estimates over 2009-22 using the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product in current prices, deflated by the Consumer Price Index with a passthrough of 0.7
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fiuratti, Federico Ivan How Large Are the Economic Dividends from Closing Gender Employment Gaps in the Middle East and North Africa?
    Keywords: Gender ; Gender Employment Gap ; Gender Employment Gap Index ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Neoclassical Growth Models ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the gains in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa, using three neoclassical growth models. The paper starts with baseline impacts from the Gender Employment Gap Index, which suggests that in the long run, gross domestic product per capita would be around 50 percent higher in the typical economy in the region if gender employment gaps were closed (mean 54 percent, median 49 percent). However, the gains are heterogeneous, ranging from less than 10 percent in Qatar to more than 80 percent in the Republic of Yemen. The paper then explores short-term gains, when capital is fixed (or adjusts slowly), and gains in the medium-term, with sluggish implementation of reforms using the Long Term Growth Model, which roughly halves the gains (and lowers the gains by more than half in resource-rich countries). Finally, the paper incorporates the effects of changes in the skill distribution in a model incorporating capital-skill complementarities in production. Because gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa tend to be larger among the unskilled, closing these gaps reduces average skill levels, moderating long-term gains by 5-10 percentage points. However, if women in the Middle East and North Africa continue the current trend toward greater educational attainment, the gains will be greater than in the baseline. All three models--the Gender Employment Gap Index, the Long Term Growth Model, and capital-skill complementarities--point to large increases in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Education ; Education For All ; Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Capital ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; UMI Countries
    Abstract: This Human Capital Review aims to provide analytical foundations in the support of policies that improve human capital outcomes for the following four UMI countries in Central America: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. The objective of this report is to identify the key constraints to human capital growth and understand how education and labor market policies can foster a resilient recovery, promote inclusive growth, and contribute to poverty reduction in these countries. The review also estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human capital outcomes using a multi-sectoral approach. The analysis compares human capital outcomes in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019) against trends during the pandemic (2020-2021). Lastly, the report focuses on these four countries, which are the only UMI in Central America to take advantage of new data collected during the pandemic, which allowed to quantify some of the impacts of COVID-19 and understand some of their long-term implications for human development outcomes
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Labor Force Participation ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: Despite sizable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million jobs were lost in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian women's disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in female labor force participation that had slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wu, Haoyu The Growth Elasticity of Poverty: Is Africa Any Different?
    Keywords: Aggregate Economic Growth ; Global Poverty Reduction ; Gross Domestic Product Per Capita ; Growth Elasticity ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: On current trends, the future of global poverty reduction will be determined by Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet even during Sub-Saharan Africa's period of high economic growth -- roughly corresponding to the first decade and a half of the 2000s -- the extent to which this growth translated into improved living standards for African households was hotly debated. This paper revisits the issue of Sub-Saharan Africa's relatively low growth elasticity of poverty using a sample of 575 successive and comparable growth spells between 1981 and 2021. The findings confirm that, even controlling for initial differences in poverty, income levels, and inequality, Sub-Saharan Africa consistently had a significantly lower growth elasticity of poverty relative to other regions over this period. The lower growth elasticity of poverty, which has remained unchanged over time, is due to a lower passthrough between growth in gross domestic product per capita (or growth in household final consumption expenditure as measured by national accounts) and growth in household consumption expenditures as measured from surveys. Given the low passthrough of economic growth to households, Africa thus needs higher rates of economic growth than its peer countries in other regions to achieve equal rates of poverty reduction. Given the challenge of achieving this in the current global economic environment, success in reducing global poverty will require a focused effort to strengthen the effect of aggregate economic growth on household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest that this will require (i) improved provision of basic education services and basic infrastructure, (ii) faster structural transformation, and (iii) a decrease in the occurrence and persistence of violent conflicts
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Coulibaly, Mohamed Responsibility Sharing and the Economic Participation of Refugees in Chad
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Disaster Risk Management ; Environment ; Flood and Drought Risk Management ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Natural Resources Management ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The Global Compact on Refugees recognizes the importance of responsibility sharing for hosting, protecting, and assisting refugees, while emphasizing the potential of economic participation to reduce the cost of humanitarian assistance. This note explores the relative importance of aid in caring for refugees hosted in Chad and the importance of the incomes earned by the refugees. It finds that the combination of aid and self-earned incomes falls far short of a minimum standard of living (the poverty line) as a consequence of which the vast majority of refugees lives in abject poverty. It is also finds that although refugees are hosted in camps with relatively few economic opportunities, self-generated income covers 54 percent of the poverty line and aid only 14 percent. As Chad has adopted a policy of refugee inclusion and dispersion, the note then explores how much these progressive policies might increase the income earning potential of refugees. This is found to be substantial. Economic participation policies are estimated to reduce refugee poverty from 88 to 50 percent (thus increasing the self-sufficiency of refugees dramatically), while increasing the incomes generated by poor refugees by more than 50 percent. The greatest participation benefits will be realized when refugees move to areas with more economic potential
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dovonou, Vanessa Olakemi The Distributional Impact of Inflation in South Asia: An Empirical Approach
    Keywords: Distributional Effect ; Distributional Impact ; Food Inflation ; Food Inflation and Inequality ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical estimation of the distributional impact of inflation on households in South Asia. Two main channels are explored-the consumption basket channel and the income channel-for households in different income deciles in selected countries in South Asia. Using recent household expenditure surveys, the paper constructs detailed consumption expenditure shares and the effective "cost-of-living" inflation for households of different income levels. The analysis finds that due to a substantially larger share of food expenditure, households in lower income deciles experience higher effective inflation when food prices are high, despite a diversification in consumption expenditure over time. The analysis also suggests heterogeneous effects of inflation through the household income channel
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Krafft, Caroline Quality and Inequality in Pre-Primary and Home Environment Inputs to Early Childhood Development in Egypt
    Keywords: Children and Youth ; Early Childhood Development ; Education ; Education Quality ; Home Environment ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Pre-Primary ; Pre-Primary Child Development Investment ; Primary Education Investment ; School Readiness Indicators ; Social Development ; Socioeconomic Inquality
    Abstract: By the time children in low- and middle-income countries start primary school, large socioeconomic disparities are evident in children's learning and development. Both pre-primary and home environments can play important roles in influencing school readiness and can contribute to disparities in early childhood development, but there is limited evidence on their relative roles in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines how pre-primary quality, stimulation at home, and early childhood development vary by socioeconomic status for pre-primary students in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The results demonstrate substantial socioeconomic inequality in stimulation at home, more so than in pre-primary quality and inputs, although there is variation in the degree of inequality across different dimensions of pre-primary quality. "Double inequality" is observed, where students with less stimulating home environments experience slightly lower quality pre-primary inputs. There are particularly large pre-primary inequities in structural quality (physical environment) and less inequity in process quality (pedagogy). These results suggest that targeted investments in pre-primary education in Egypt are necessary to reduce inequality in school readiness but are likely insufficient to close the socioeconomic status gap in children's development. Investing in interventions to improve vulnerable children's home learning environments, as well as investing in quality pre-primary, is critical to address disparities in children's development
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (100 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Uckat, Hannah Leaning in at Home: Women's Promotions and Intra-Household Bargaining in Bangladesh
    Keywords: Decision Making and Poverty ; Female Managers ; Female Role Models ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Empowerment ; Poverty Reduction ; Textile Industry Jobs ; Womens Agency ; Womens Career Impact
    Abstract: It is established that entering employment improves a woman's bargaining position in the household. This paper investigates whether a woman's career advancement further improves her intra-household bargaining power. The analysis exploits quasi-random participation in a career promotion program in Bangladesh's garment industry to causally estimate the impact of women's promotion on household decision-making. The findings show that women who participate in the promotion program gain bargaining power as measured by higher expenditures on women (51%) and girls (74%), and on remittances (58%). The promotion-related income effect only partially explains these increases, suggesting that women gain more agency over household income more generally. Further, these new female managers now serve as role models to their staff. The paper finds that the direct effects spill over to women who are quasi-randomly exposed to the new female managers, who also report more say in household decisions. Complementarities between women's positions in the workplace and in the household appear important
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis
    Keywords: Digital Infrastructure Outcomes ; Energy Infrastructure Research ; ICT Infrastructure Research ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Infrastructure Elasticities ; Infrastructure Literature Meta-Analysis ; Infrastructure Policy Research ; Poverty Reduction ; Transport Infrastructure Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper presents a meta-analysis of the infrastructure research done over more than three decades, using a database of close to a thousand estimates from 201 papers conducted between 1983-2022, reporting outcome elasticities. The analysis casts a wide net to include the transport, energy, and digital or information and communications technology sectors and the whole set of outcomes covered in the literature, including output, employment and wages, inequality and poverty, trade, education and health, population, and environmental aspects. The results allow for an update of the underlying parameters of interest, the "true" underlying infrastructure elasticities, accounting for publication bias, as well as for heterogeneity stemming from both study design and context, with a particular focus on policy relevant subsectors and developing countries
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Aspiring Upper Middle-Income Goals ; Meeting Poverty Reduction Goals ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Poverty Reduction Targets ; PPP Poverty Line ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: Indonesia can build on its impressive track-record of poverty reduction to tackle more ambitious poverty reduction targets. Indonesia has made impressive gains in reducing poverty, with previously lagging regions catching up, and the Government's goal to eliminate extreme poverty by 2024 practically met. As an aspiring upper middle-income country, however, Indonesia may want to widen its focus beyond extreme poverty by moving from the USD 1.90 2011 PPP poverty line to higher lines for middle-income countries. The focus should also include economically insecure households susceptible to falling back into poverty. Is Indonesia's current effort ready for this challenge Human capital outcomes are disappointing and worrying geographic disparities remain. Low productivity still prevents households from becoming economically secure. Shocks, including from climate change, continue to threaten reversal in poverty gains. In this report the authors identify several major pathways to tackle these challenges in a comprehensive and sustainable manner
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  • 33
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brudevold-Newman, Andrew Returns to Soft Skills Training in Rwanda
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Job Networking ; Labor Market Entry ; Labor Market Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) ; Social Protections and Labor ; Soft Skills ; Transition From Work To School
    Abstract: Young adults seeking to enter the labor market often confront a skills mismatch with firms reporting difficulty finding new entrants with appropriate levels of soft skills. This paper reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Rwanda in which recent graduates from tertiary education were randomly assigned to a two-week intensive soft skills training program developed and delivered by staff of the University of Rwanda. Results indicate that the program facilitated accelerated entry into the labor market in a period characterized by COVID-19-related disruptions. These effects dissipated over the following year as more jobs became available in the economy and the control group's employment caught up with that of the treatment group. The paper finds evidence of significant job network expansion for participants of the training, which could have led to faster labor market entry for the treated youth
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty, and Inequality
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Inequality Index ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Index ; Poverty Informatics ; Poverty Reduction ; Shared Prosperity ; Welfare Index
    Abstract: Simple welfare indices such as mean income are ubiquitous but not distribution sensitive. In contrast, existing distribution sensitive welfare indices are rarely used, often because they are difficult to explain and/or lack intuitive units. This paper proposes a simple new distribution sensitive welfare index with intuitive units: the average factor by which individual incomes must be multiplied to attain a given reference level of income. This new index is subgroup decomposable with population weights and satisfies the three main definitions of distribution sensitivity in the literature. Variants on this index can be used as distribution sensitive poverty measures and as inequality measures, with the same simple intuitive units. The properties of the new index are illustrated using the global distribution of income across individuals between 1990 and 2019, as well as with selected country comparisons. Finally, the index can be used to define the "prosperity gap" as a proposed new measure of "shared prosperity," one of the twin goals of the World Bank
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baseler, Travis Disastrous Displacement: The Long-Run Impacts of Landslides
    Keywords: Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Refugees ; Displacement ; Displacement and Mental Health ; Environment ; Forced Migration ; Government Adminitrated Relocation ; Landslide Impact ; Living Standards ; Mental Health and Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Natural disasters displace millions of people a year, but little is known about their long-run impacts when institutional capacity to respond to the disaster is low. This paper estimates the long-run impacts of six major landslides in Uganda, where most affected households received little aid. The analysis combines administrative and survey data from nearly the full population of affected and nearby households with exact landslide paths and a geological model of landslide risk to identify impacts relative to nearby households facing similar risk. Landslides substantially increase long-term displacement and migration, and affected households have significantly worse economic and mental health outcomes years afterward. Displacement worsens long-run outcomes, especially when not administered by the government. These findings contrast with many other studies of natural disaster, and suggest that the positive impacts of displacement require a favorable financial and institutional environment unlikely to be found in many countries
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo The Welfare Effects of Structural Change and Internal Migration in Tanzania
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Cross-Sector Labor Movement ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Structures ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Internal Migration ; Labor Market Shift ; Panel Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Structural Change ; Welfare Indicators
    Abstract: Structural change has implications for various dimensions of development, including poverty reduction. However, the existing empirical literature on Sub-Saharan African economies, including Tanzania, has mainly focused on trends and patterns in macroeconomic or aggregate welfare indicators, largely providing a descriptive analysis of the nature of structural change and its potential welfare implications. This paper provides micro insights on structural change in Tanzania and its effect on welfare, using a recent household panel dataset, which was collected between 2015 and 2021. The results show that cross-sector labor movements are dominated by movements between agriculture and services, although most individuals studied within the two periods continue to remain in agriculture, with industry's share in employment declining marginally. The paper shows that among the individuals studied, the number of people who slid into poverty was nearly twice the number who escaped poverty, and this is significantly influenced by the pattern of sectoral transitions experienced by the individuals. The findings show that in addition to sectoral transitions and migration being important to each other, they are both driven by similar micro factors. The paper highlights the importance of education (particularly secondary or higher education) to increasing the chances of an individual embarking on welfare-enhancing sectoral movement and associated migration across districts in Tanzania
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit A Meta-Theory for Absolute Poverty Lines
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Global Poverty ; Heterogeneous Preferences ; Poverty and Development Research ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Absolute poverty lines aim to track a fixed poverty standard consistently. There are two main approaches for the construction of absolute poverty lines. The "welfaristic" approach tracks a fixed level of utility, and the "objective" approach tracks a fixed list of achievements. As they yield different poverty comparisons, longstanding debates between their respective proponents take place both at global and national levels. However, these debates only provide informal arguments about their respective theoretical validity. This paper proposes a meta-theory for the consistency properties of absolute poverty lines under heterogeneous prices and heterogeneous preferences. The results identify the sets of consistency properties that fully characterize the poverty lines underpinned by these approaches. Which approach has better consistency properties depends on two aspects of the application for which poverty is monitored
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Benefits ; Human Capital ; Integration ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Job Markets ; Labor Markets ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Welfare
    Abstract: The global economic recovery remains fragile, creating choppy seas for the recovering Pacific. While global conditions have gradually improved since the pandemic and spillovers from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, progress on reducing inflation in major economies has proven more challenging than expected. Given that all Pacific countries are net importers, this has resulted in persistently high imported inflation. The speed of monetary policy tightening by major central banks has slowed, but easing is unlikely in the near term. Aggregate demand in major trading partners of the Pacific (particularly Australia and New Zealand) remains lackluster. This could limit demand for travel and tourism services and other income sources such as remittance and commodity exports. Despite uncertainties in the global economic recovery, Pacific economies are expected to see ongoing expansion in 2023 and 2024. Fiji led the Pacific's post-COVID-19 recovery with open borders and a strong rebound in 2022 and is now on track to reach its pre-pandemic output level in 2023. Ongoing recovery expectations in the Pacific are broadly in line with March 2023 World Bank projections except for Tuvalu and Palau, where growth has been revised down given weaker than expected outcomes in construction and tourism. In 2023, Pacific growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent and then moderate to 3.3 percent in 2024 as the initial post-COVID-19 rebound dissipates and the region moves towards its long-term trend growth of 2.6 percent. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains high and depends on whether a soft landing can be achieved among key trading partners as they battle ongoing inflation. Inflation remained stubborn across the Pacific at an average of over 6.7 percent in 2022, a substantial increase from the 1.5 percent average during 2019-2021. This has increased the risk of vulnerable populations falling into poverty. In line with global trends, Pacific inflation is expected to decline to an average of 6.0 percent in 2023 and gradually subside thereafter
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Foreign Labor Markets ; International Access ; Labor Markets ; Labor Migration ; Legal Framework ; NCA Countries ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This note aims to close the knowledge gap about the effectiveness and capacity of labor migration sending systems in NCA countries. The report assesses whether NCA countries have the fundamental elements of an effective labor migration sending system, identifies the missing elements, and offers recommendations for strengthening the systems over time. Filling such a knowledge gap is critical to inform policies that maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of economic migration. Programs and policies that help expand legal pathways for regular migration will not only promote mutually beneficial migration, but could be a step, albeit small, towards dissuading individuals from pursuing risky migration patterns. Indeed, evidence from Mexico indicates that investing in legal labor pathways can reduce irregular migration (Clemens and Gough, 2018). In this context, this note summarizes the main findings from three institutional diagnostics of the labor migration sending systems in NCA countries, with a view to deepening the understanding of the supply side of labor flows. To this end, and building on previous World Bank experience globally, a diagnostic tool was developed to identify what steps the NCA governments have taken to recognize and respond to foreign demand for workers. The tool examines if appropriate structures, systems, processes, and resources exist to prepare and deliver adequate labor supply arrangements in the context of bilateral agreements (BLAs) or Temporary Work Agreements (TWAs) with other countries. The diagnostic tool is organized around four main pillars to regulate, facilitate, fortify, and further access of labor migrants to international labor markets
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Bonoit Reconceptualizing Global Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, with Illustration on Nigerian Data
    Keywords: Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Monitary Poverty Measurement Bias ; Mortality Impact Measurement ; Multidimensional Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Well-Being Indicator
    Abstract: Multidimensional poverty measures can in theory make well-being comparisons that are less biased than those solely based on monetary poverty. However, global multidimensional poverty measures suffer in practice from limitations that have led to credible criticisms. This paper presents the case for multidimensional poverty measures, two criticisms against their current implementations, as well as recently proposed solutions to improve on these criticisms. The paper develops a method for implementing these solutions in practice. The resulting well-being indicator is used to compare well-being across Nigerian states in 2019. This empirical illustration suggests that these solutions may substantially affect well-being comparisons. The paper also quantifies the potential bias inherent to comparing well-being solely based on monetary poverty. The results find substantially different well-being comparisons between the proposed well-being indicator and monetary poverty even though monetary poverty was (i) high in Nigeria in 2019 and (ii) very heterogeneously distributed across Nigerian states; and (iii) is integrated as one component of the proposed well-being indicator. The paper aims to improve global multidimensional poverty measures by making them more consistent with preference theory and by incorporating the direct impact of mortality, which deprives individuals of the most important functioning
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baez, Javier E A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts: Evidence from Turkiye
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Growth ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Data on National Income ; Economic Development Analysis ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth Cycles ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Analyses ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measurement of National Income ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Economic Activity ; Spatial Inequality
    Abstract: This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Turkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector's gross value added during the post-2009 rebound-consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity-with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Seitz, William Preferences for Wage Discrimination against Women
    Keywords: Age Bias ; Discrimination ; Equal Pay ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Gender Equality ; Gender Wage Gap ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Systematic Gender Bias ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This study demonstrates systematic bias against women in public perceptions of the fairness of wages. In nationally representative survey experiments across more than 70,000 individual vignettes posed to 4,500 respondents in three Central Asian countries, respondents were 13 percent more likely to say wages were "too high" when the randomly assigned person described in the vignette (subject) was a woman, and 34 percent more likely to say they were "too low" when the subject was a man. The pattern of bias favoring higher wages for men is statistically significant at conventional levels in all three countries, among both male and female respondents, and in each of the eight occupations studied. The results also demonstrate the presence of significant bias in favor or older workers, specifically for white-collar occupations, and the absence of this relationship for the blue-collar occupations included in the experiment. The findings reinforce the importance of bias as a contributing factor to the gender pay gap, and the value of equal pay regulations to prevent gender discrimination in wage setting
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo-Abril, Monica Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity Model ; Conditional Cash Transfers ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes fiscal incidence in El Salvador through a gender lens using the Commitment to Equity model. The study aims to identify fiscal policies that promote gender equality and facilitates evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at reducing gender disparities and promoting more inclusive fiscal policies. The analysis shows that fiscal policy is not pro-poor, as it can lead to a 3.1 percentage point increase in overall poverty using the USD 6.85 2017 purchasing power parity poverty line, disproportionately impacting particular groups. Households headed by single women with at least one child under six years old experience a poverty rate increase of 4.3 percentage points, reaching an alarming rate of 42.7 percent. An increasing gender gap in poverty rates is also observed among households where women are the sole providers. The results show that the net fiscal system can increase the incidence of poverty among this group by 4.3 percentage points. In comparison, it increases by only 2.3 percentage points among their male counterparts. A microsimulation exercise of potential fiscal reforms to improve the welfare position of these households reveals that a fiscal package eliminating indirect subsidies, social security exemptions for vulnerable groups, and conditional cash transfers to households that meet certain conditions could reverse these unfavorable outcomes
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Assessment of World Bank Effectiveness ; Equity and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion Policy ; Financial Reform ; Financial Services ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Institutional Reform ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This evaluation explores how and with what effect the World Bank Group has supported financial inclusion for the microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. Financial inclusion is defined as the use of financial services by individuals and firms. It encompasses financial access-owning an account-and the use of financial services. There has been an impressive growth in account ownership globally, from 55% of adults in 2014 to 71% in 2021, although usage is more limited as some accounts are inactive. Critically, both financial access and the use of financial services remain major challenges for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. The objective of the evaluation is to assess whether the Bank Group has been doing the right things and whether it has been doing things right on financial inclusion. The evaluation captures lessons from the World Bank's experience supporting financial inclusion for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups and updates a 2015 financial inclusion evaluation. The evaluation includes a retrospective look at the drive for universal financial access and examines progress and challenges in women's access to financial services. The evaluation also assesses the Bank Group's support for digital financial services as vehicles for financial inclusion. Finally, the report examines the World Bank's response to COVID-19 as it relates to financial inclusion. The evaluation proposes three recommendations: (i) The World Bank and IFC should further encourage account use by underserved groups, including women and rural poor people, and emphasize this more in their strategies and projects. (ii) The World Bank and IFC should design and implement more comprehensive approaches that address constraints in the enabling environment for DFS to reach underserved and excluded groups. (iii) To enhance learning on what works to increase the beneficial use of financial services at the MPWEG, the World Bank and IFC should collect outcome data across different underserved and excluded groups, initially on a pilot basis
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (20 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Orecchia, Carlo Assessing the Efficiency and Fairness of the Fit for 55 Package toward Net Zero Emissions under Different Revenue Recycling Schemes for Italy
    Keywords: Achieving Environmental Sustainability Goals ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Carbon Pricing Impact ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; European Green Deal ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Revenue Recycling ; Tax System Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: One of Italy's key objectives is to reform and modernize the tax system to increase tax efficiency and improve environmental sustainability and regional economic outcomes, in line with the European Union strategy. Within the framework of the European Green Deal, Italy is committed to contributing to the goal of becoming the first climate neutral region by 2050 (the "Fit for 55" package). As an intermediate step toward the 2050 target, the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Carbon pricing is at the core of the proposal, but its full implementation is also expected to have regressive effects, harming poorer households, and adverse economic impacts, reducing firms' competitiveness. This paper evaluates the effects of the carbon pricing proposal of the "Fit for 55" package on welfare, sectoral production, and income distribution. To tackle the adverse social and economic effects, it compares different revenue recycling schemes shifting the tax burden from major direct and indirect taxes to carbon emissions. It finds that well-targeted revenue recycling policies might significantly reduce the negative effects. The analysis adopts the Italian Regional and Environmental Computable General Equilibrium of the Department of Finance model, which is a new (recursive) dynamic computable general equilibrium model developed by the Italian Ministry of the Economy with technical assistance from the World Bank. It has a detailed energy specification that allows for capital/labor/energy substitution in production, intra-fuel energy substitution across all demand agents, a multi-output and multi-input production structure, an extended energy system with 11 different types of technologies, multiple households to address distributional impacts, and detailed information on the Italian tax system
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Deng, Jingyuan Labor Market Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Covid-19 Pandemic Impact ; Employment and Unemployment ; Impact of Covid on Refugee Labor Market ; Labor Market Dynamics ; Labor Market Transition ; Labor Markets ; Post Pandemic Job Recovery ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement ; Vulnerable Populations Job Loss
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on men's labor market outcomes in the West Bank and Gaza, examining adjustments at the extensive (participation) and intensive (hours of work) margins of the labor supply. Quarterly panel data from national labor force surveys allow observing labor market transitions, job loss and job gain rates, and labor market stocks. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decline in employment and labor market participation among men in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Moreover, the analysis finds evidence of large adjustments at the intensive margin of employment, as working hours declined. The changes in aggregate labor market indicators seem to be driven by an increase in job loss and a decline in job gain in the West Bank and Gaza. Despite the apparent resilience of the labor market, as labor market indicators quickly bounced back to their pre-pandemic levels, the results show that the most vulnerable segments of the workforce, such as informal workers, workers in blue collar occupations, the least educated, and residents in refugee camps, bore a disproportionately heavier burden
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bussolo, Maurizio (Perceptions of) Inequality, Demand for Redistribution, and Group-Specific Public Goods: A Survey Experiment in India
    Keywords: Biased Perceptions ; Community ; Distribution ; Income ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Personal Wealth ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Goods ; Redistribution
    Abstract: This paper uses data from a survey of 116,061 households in India to study people's beliefs about inequality and demand for redistribution. The findings show that a household's beliefs about inequality, implied by the perception of their position on the income distribution, is negatively correlated with support for reducing inequality. This is relevant since there are significant differences between where individuals believe their household stands and their actual position, with the gap between perceived and actual position exceeding two deciles on average. Despite these large differences, informing individuals of their household's position on the income distribution has no discernible effect on support for reducing inequality. The paper posits that demand for redistribution may be unresponsive to this information because it is based on exclusively on household's income and does not account for the sharing of resources within communities. In communities where group-specific public goods, such as religious and social goods, are present, class antagonism and redistribution are mitigated by community solidarity. Households benefit from these goods, and such benefits alter the individuals' beliefs of inequality. Consistent with this prediction, the average individual perceives their household as richer in districts with a greater supply of religious or social goods. The sharing of resources within religious or ethnic groups can shape perceptions of the income distribution and reduce support for redistribution within these groups, and thus requires serious consideration in studies of inequality
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Zaveri, Esha D Droughts and Deficits: The Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth
    Keywords: Agricultural Growth and Rural Development ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Resilience ; Drought ; GDP Growth and Drought ; Green Water ; Land Use ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Rainfall ; Rainfall Shocks ; Rural Development ; Soil Moisture
    Abstract: As climate change intensifies, dry rainfall shocks and droughts are a growing concern. At the same time, scientific evidence suggests that the world has surpassed the safe planetary boundary for green water, which is water stored in biomass and soil that is crucial for maintaining climate resilience. Yet, evidence at the global scale of these combined forces on economic growth is poorly understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap by using data on annual subnational gross domestic product for 82 countries from 1990-2014. Using rainfall shocks as plausibly exogenous variations in a spatially specific panel at the grid level, the analysis finds that the global effects of droughts on economic activity are substantial. Moderate to extreme droughts reduce gross domestic product per capita growth between 0.39 and 0.85 percentage point, on average, depending on the level of development and baseline climatic conditions, with low- and middle-income countries in arid areas sustaining the highest relative losses. In high-income countries, moderate droughts have no impact, and only extreme droughts have adverse effects, reducing growth by about 0.3 percentage point, a little less than half the impact felt in the low- and middle-income country sample for the same intensity of drought. Crucially, the impact of a dry shock of a given magnitude also depends on antecedent green water availability. The results show that increases in soil moisture in previous years can neutralize the harmful impacts from a dry shock, with suggestive evidence that local and upstream forest cover are key channels through which these impacts manifest. These findings have important implications for measuring the economic impact of droughts and can inform adaptation investments
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2153
    Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfer Program ; Covid-19 Impacts ; Covid-19 Recovery ; Economic Inclusion ; Labor Market Vulnerability ; Labor Markets ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Social Protection Policy ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The purpose of the note is to inform the design of policies and instruments that can enhance labor market outcomes of Brazil's poor and vulnerable populations. Global and regional experiences show that active labor market programs, and more broadly economic inclusion interventions, both at the strategic level and for territorial implementation, require population-specific labor market diagnostics. And aggregate labor statistics do not portray adequately the specific situation of the poor and vulnerable. This note studies how Brazil's poor and vulnerable engage in the labor market and in public labor market policies, or fail to do so, according to individual, family and location characteristics. The authors focus on two broad populations of interest: work-able adults in households living below the Cadastro Unico poverty line (the poor), and its subset of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer Bolsa Familia (BF), the country's largest social program in 2019, and named Auxilio Brasil (AB)
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Space ; Growth ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Reforms
    Abstract: Global economic activity registered resilient growth in early 2023 but is losing momentum. Advanced economies growth slowed less-than-anticipated inearly 2023 as tight labor markets drove wages up, preventing a sharp decline in consumption. However, global growth slowed slightly in Q2 2023, with services growth cooling gradually and manufacturing remaining soft. Global inflation has moderated in recent months, largely reflecting favorable base effects from commodity prices falling below their 2022 peaks, along with abating supply chain pressures. Global trade in services strengthened in 1H 2023 thanks to the easing of mobility restrictions but trade in goods slowed due to weakening global industrial production
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation ; Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Governance ; Climate Resilience ; Economic Diversification ; Environment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Health Costs ; Natural Capital ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Republic Of Congo ; Sustainable Growth
    Abstract: The Republic of Congo (RoC) CCDR is a new World Bank core diagnostic report that integrate climate change and development considerations. It is intended to help the country prioritize the most impactful actions that can boost adaptation and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while delivering on broader development goals. The CCDR builds on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce climate vulnerabilities and GHG emissions, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The report highlights that RoC could reduce poverty in rural areas by 40% and in urban areas by 20% by 2050 by implementing more ambitious reforms to promote economic diversification and climate resilience. It also concludes that business as usual is not an option. Economic losses could reach up to 17% of GDP by 2050 if reforms to diversify the economy and attract more climate investments are not taken. Climate impacts could also increase total health costs from USD 92 million in 2010 to USD 260 million by 2050. The report identifies four priorities to promote sustainable growth in the country: (i) stronger and greener infrastructure and services in electricity, transport, water, and sanitation can deliver transformative results; (ii) More climate-ready education, health systems and social services can save lives and bring critical resources to the poorest; (iii) More investments in natural capital including climate smart agriculture and greater forest management along will help create jobs while reducing carbon emissions; (iv) better climate governance to leverage carbon markets. The forest contributes to USD 260 million in timber exports and store over 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Protecting and valorizing the forest is critical to turn the country's natural capital into wealth. The report emphasizes that the private sector has a critical role to play in mobilizing financing for an ambitious set of reforms and investments in the context of tight fiscal space. This will require raising awareness on risks and opportunities from climate change, and innovative solutions and financial sector reforms
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2153
    Keywords: Access To Digital Infrastructure ; Access To Financial Infrastructure ; Digital Divide ; Government To Person Payments (G2P) ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Social Protection Rapid Deployment ; Urban Informal Sector ; Urban Partnerships and Poverty ; Urban Poverty ; Use of Big Data
    Abstract: The COVID-19 response in many Sub-Saharan African countries included the rapid deployment of social protection programs leveraging digital systems to counteract the income losses that were disproportionately experienced by urban informal populations. Using data from three in-depth country case studies, this paper finds that these digital government-to-person (G2P) payments contributed to countries reaching beneficiaries quickly and safely and that G2P payments may be particularly viable in urban, as compared to rural, areas due to greater access to digital and financial infrastructure, creative use of big data, and population density that allows for mass communication. However, there are still pockets of exclusion in urban areas emerging from incomplete digital access, limited financial inclusion, underdeveloped financial ecosystems, and high population mobility. It is particularly challenging to identify, communicate with, assess, and deliver G2P services to informal workers in urban areas due to their non-registration status, variable income flows, the blending of the home and household enterprises into a single entity, and the governments' limited experience in identifying eligible beneficiaries within this segment. While adopting a digital G2P architecture provides a promising avenue to strengthen the safety nets for this segment in the region, exclusion challenges remain. Given the ubiquity of urban informality in the region, countries will need to work to include the urban informal in foundational digital systems, such as national IDs and social registries, adopt flexible regulatory and hybrid delivery models to address the sector's varied needs, and seek to foster robust digital payment ecosystems to maximize the potential for spillover benefits
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: Access To Services ; Food ; Infrastructure ; Monetary and Non-Monetary ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This report -- the Central African Republic's (CAR's) first ever poverty assessment -- draws on unparalleled microdata to propose practical strategies for lifting Central Africans out of poverty. Against the backdrop of a wide range of development challenges -- including persistent low growth, conflict and displacement, andthe increasing threats posed by climate change --CAR urgently needs policies for reducing poverty. This report draws primarily on the 2021 Enquete Harmonisee sur le Conditions de Vie des Menages (EHCVM), the first household survey suitable for poverty measurement conducted in CAR in more than a decade, to try and guidesuch policies. The report provides CAR's headline poverty and inequality statistics, using the EHCVM's unique sampling strategy to cover internally displaced persons (IDPs). The analysis goes beyond considerations of monetary poverty alone, assessing the extent of non-monetary deprivation in CAR, examining constraints onhuman capital development, and exploring the role that livelihoods -- especially in agriculture -- can play in lifting people out of poverty. Using geospatial data, the results are also linked to indicators of physical access to schools and health facilities as well as key elements of basic infrastructure. This Executive Summary highlights the poverty assessment's key findings and outlines the policies that can kickstart CAR's pathway towards poverty reduction
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (70 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Schimanski, Caroline Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts: Welfare Status of Children in Nigeria
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Chronic Poverty ; Deprivation ; Deprivation Gender Gap ; Equity and Development ; Intergenerational Mobility ; Monetary Poverty ; Multi-Dimensional Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Analyzing data from four waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey and the Nigerian Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, covering the period from 2010 through 2019, this study provides evidence that poverty levels of children exceed those of adults. Overall, rural children throughout the country and children in the North face higher poverty and chronic poverty rates than urban children and those living in the South without clear trends of a closing of those gaps. These findings hold for monetary poverty as well as, for severe health, education, food, shelter, water, information deprivation and improved sanitation deprivation across Nigeria's six regions. One exception is severe sanitation deprivation, for which especially rural areas in the Southwest stand out with higher levels of severe sanitation deprivation than in rural areas in the north and any other region. Large inter-state heterogeneity of estimates within regions, ranging up to 50 percentage points, for all except severe food deprivation however highlight the importance of looking beyond regional poverty estimates and regional differences. Only state specific, but no systematic evidence has been found for a gender difference in severe educational deprivation and school enrollment rates. Existing gender gaps though seem negligible compared to the overall level of deprivation and urban-rural and north-south gaps. Moreover, the parents' literacy and more so the educational level is highly correlated with the probability of being poor or deprived in any dimension, in particular in rural and northern areas. Interestingly, up to about half of the monetary non-poor children at the top of the consumption distribution still face at least one severe deprivation
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Urbina, Maria Jose Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience
    Keywords: Amnesties ; COVID 19 Impact ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Forced Migration ; Health Policy and Management ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugee Pandemic Outcomes ; Refugee Resilience ; Regularization of Migrants
    Abstract: How can regularization programs improve forced migrants' resilience to shocks This paper leverages panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more resilient and less affected by the pandemic than similar but non-eligible forced migrants. The results indicate that access to the program promoted better health access for eligible migrants, facilitating adherence to prevention guidelines and increasing detection rates. Additionally, eligible migrants had better housing and labor conditions, relative to non-eligible migrants
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Forced Displacement ; Host Communities ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Cohesion ; Social Conflict Prevention
    Abstract: This report presents new evidence from 26 background studies on forced displacement and social cohesion to expand the current knowledge base on how to prevent social conflict and promote social cohesion in forced displacement contexts. The background studies are geographically and methodologically diverse. They examine social cohesion in a variety of low-, middle-, and high-income countries across Africa, Asia, Central, and South America, and Europe. Building on this new evidence, the report provides lessons on how development investments and policies can reduce inequalities, alleviate social tensions, and promote social cohesion between and within displaced populations and host communities. Overall, the findings demonstrate that, while displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, especially in areas with strained services and limited economic opportunities, inclusive policies and development investments can effectively mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote social cohesion
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Case Study Review ; Case-Based Evaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation Design ; Intervention Effectiveness ; Interventions and Outcomes ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Support To Carbon Finance Case Study
    Abstract: Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank's support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (83 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh H Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis
    Keywords: Climate Change Inequity ; Inequality ; Poverty and Environment ; Poverty Reduction ; Subnational Data ; Temperature
    Abstract: Despite a vast literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little evidence exists on the global impacts of hotter temperature on poverty and inequality. Analysis of a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 134 countries finds that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 9.1 percent increase in poverty, using the USD 1.90 daily poverty threshold. A similar increase in temperature causes a 1.4 percent increase in the Gini inequality index. The paper also finds negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries-particularly those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa-are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on the responsibilities of richer countries versus poorer countries
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  • 59
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Conflict ; COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Yemen's economy has been transformed by eight years of violent conflict. War has shattered the country's already fragile economic equilibrium, touching upon virtually every aspect of life. The compounded shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global prices have only deepened the economic and humanitarian disaster precipitated by the war. Since the start of the conflict, economic analyses have tended to focus on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, the sharp rise in poverty and food insecurity, and the destruction of infrastructure and the capital stock, but relatively little attention has been paid to the current structure of the economy or what prospects can be envisaged for the country. Also, it is important to situate this analysis within the political economy dynamics of the country which majorly affect the economic development challenges of the country. Data constraints and the unique characteristics of Yemen's recent experience limit the effectiveness of traditional growth-analysis methodologies. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) uses novel data-collection methods and analytical techniques, triangulating its findings with traditional approaches and direct data collection to close the economic knowledge gap. Information sources include extensive key-informant interviews, household phone surveys, and remotely sensed geospatial data based on satellite imagery, including nighttime illumination data. This CEM also combines an in-depth political economy analysis with economic development investigation
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  • 60
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (iv, 67 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Other education study
    Keywords: Entwicklungspolitik ; Staatensystem ; Internationale Organisation ; Entwicklungshilfe ; Entwicklungsprojekt ; Bildung ; Erziehung ; Erziehungsziel ; Bildungseinrichtung ; Zugang ; Ergebnis ; Projekt ; Bilanz ; Childhood Development ; Climate Action ; Conflict and Development ; Early Childhood Development ; Edtech ; Education ; Education for All ; Fragility ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; Girls and Women ; Learning ; Moving Out of Poverty ; Pandemic ; Poverty Reduction ; Teachers
    Abstract: As the largest external financier of education in low- and middle-income countries, the World Bank is committed to ensuring that all children around the world have free, inclusive, equitable, and quality education to achieve their potential. Our portfolio of investments in education has continued to grow, and our projects focus on ensuring that high-quality learning takes place for everyone, everywhere. In "Realizing Education's Promise: A World Bank Retrospective", we explore our operations and research across the globe since the first World Development Report (WDR) on education in 2018, which illuminated the scale of the learning crisis. In this new publication, we spotlight major milestones in our work over the past five years, highlighting successes, reflecting on what remains to be done, and sharing our vision for the way forward
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Carranza, Eliana Job Training and Job Search Assistance Policies in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Active Labor Market Policy ; Employment and Unemployment ; Job Search Assistance ; Job Training Effectiveness ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; Worker Skills Training
    Abstract: Governments around the developing world face pressure to intervene actively to help jobseekers find employment. Two of the most common policies used are job training, based on the idea that many of those seeking jobs lack the skills employers want, and job search assistance, based on the possibility that even if workers have the skills demanded, search and matching frictions make it difficult for workers to be hired in the jobs that need these skills. However, reviews of the first generation of evaluations of these programs found typical impacts to be small, casting doubt on the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of these programs. This paper reexamines the arguments for whether, when, and how developing country governments should undertake job training and job search assistance policies. The authors use their experience with policy implementation, and evidence from recent impact evaluations, to argue that there is still a role for governments in using these programs. However, success depends critically on program design and delivery elements that can be difficult to scale effectively, and in many cases the binding constraint may be a lack of firms with job openings, rather than a lack of workers with the skills to fill these openings
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Karamba, Wendy Fiscal Policy Effects on Poverty and Inequality in Cambodia
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This study assesses the short-term impact of fiscal policy, and its individual elements, on poverty and inequality in Cambodia as of 2019. It applies the Commitment to Equity methodology to data from the Cambodia Socio-economic Survey of 2019/20 and fiscal administrative data from various government ministries, departments, and agencies for the assessment. The study presents among the first empirical evidence on the impact of taxes and social spending on households in Cambodia. The study finds that: (i) Cambodia's 2019 fiscal system reduces inequality by 0.95 Gini index points, with the largest reduction in inequality created by in-kind transfers from spending on primary education; (ii) while Cambodia's fiscal system reduces inequality, the degree of inequality reduction is small in international comparison; and (iii) low-income households pay more in indirect taxes than they receive in cash benefits in the short term to offset the burden. As a result, the number of poor and vulnerable individuals who, in the short term, experience net cash subtractions from their incomes is greater than the number of poor and vulnerable individuals who experience net additions. Fiscal policy can deliver more net benefits to poor and vulnerable households through expanding social assistance spending. Cambodia has embarked on this expansion during the coronavirus pandemic, bringing it closer in line with comparators
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Agriculture and Food Security ; Economic Shocks ; Economic Theory and Research ; Food Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning Advances ; Macroeconomic Monitoring ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys
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  • 64
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Armed Conflict ; Children and Education ; Civil War ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Displacement ; Food Security ; Food Unaffordability ; Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Humanitarian Response ; Limited Health Care ; Living Costs ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction ; Reduced Food Intake ; Repeated Shocks
    Abstract: This report highlights respondents' lived experiences during Yemen's conflict as experts of their own experiences. This report aims to present the voices of Yemenis who have now spent eight years living through a civil war, economic crisis, and close to famine. This report is among the few authentically capturing Yemeni voices on a range of day-to-day issues from different governorates across the country. But arguably the small sample size limits ability to generalize findings. However, generalizing findings was not the intention of the report. For each theme, 'Voices from Yemen' presents a multi-stakeholder perspective to mitigate bias towards a single stakeholder group or geographical area. Moreover, the report's findings are in line with those in quantitative reports, such as 'Surviving in the Times of War' or the 'World Bank Phone Survey' report on food security. 'Voices from Yemen' presents a comprehensive picture of suffering derived from human stories behind the statistics. The conflict has made Yemeni lives unaffordable, uncertain, vulnerable, and often unbearable. The power of people's speech and the intensity of their stories narrate their grave vulnerabilities and the sense of helplessness and suffering the conflict has caused
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy and Equity: Vietnam 2018 Fiscal Incidence Analysis
    Keywords: Equity and Development ; Fiscal Incidende ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Social Spending ; Taxation ; Transfers
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributive and poverty reducing effects of Vietnam's fiscal system in 2018. The paper looks at the incidence across the distribution and the effect of (direct and indirect) taxes, subsidies, and social spending (in cash and in-kind) on inequality and poverty in Vietnam using the Commitment to Equity methodology. The overall pattern of taxes and transfers in Vietnam is moderately progressive, but most households pay more in taxes and co-payments than what they receive in cash benefits, and the fiscal system results in a small increase in poverty. The progressivity of the fiscal system and its inequality-reduction impact mostly comes from in-kind health and education spending. This reduction in inequality is about average for lower-middle-income countries, but Vietnam could do more to increase the progressivity of its fiscal system
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit Implications of Using Nonstandard Poverty Lines: An Illustration using the Case of the Arab Republic of Egypt
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Equity and Development ; Equivalence Scale ; Gender and Poverty ; Identification of Poor Households ; Implicit Genderi Bias ; Poverty Methodology ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Trend
    Abstract: Many developing countries' official poverty methodologies rely on nonstandard poverty lines, which complicate poverty comparisons across space or time. The paper considers the case of the Arab Republic of Egypt, whose official poverty lines have two important nonstandard features. First, the line is neither absolute nor relative, but rather hybrid or "weakly relative" Second, the poverty line's implicit equivalence scales are not fixed, but are rather endogenous. This paper provides a conceptual and quantitative understanding of these two nonstandard features. The results reveal that the equivalence scale implicit in the official methodology is quantitatively very similar to the (simpler) per capita equivalence scale. Switching to a per capita equivalence scale would help address an implicit gender bias that the paper identifies in Egypt's official poverty lines. The analysis shows that the official distribution of poverty across regions is very similar to that associated with a purely absolute line. In addition, the change in official poverty rates over the period analyzed (2015 to 2017/18) lies halfway between the larger increase captured by a purely absolute line (10 percentage points) and that captured by a purely relative measure (1 percentage point). However, the results show that these more standard poverty lines do not systematically perform better than the official methodology with respect to the identification of disadvantaged households
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Barriga-Cabanillas, Oscar Updating Poverty in Afghanistan Using the SWIFT-Plus Methodology
    Keywords: Living Standards ; Poverty Estimation Methodology ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Short Term Poverty Monitoring ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Close to half of the population of Afghanistan was living below the national poverty line prior to the regime change in August 2021, with no additional information on poverty collected in the country since the last official household survey in 2019/20. This paper fills this knowledge gap through survey-to-survey imputation using a SWIFT-plus methodology. The analysis trains a predictive model on data from the 2019/20 Expenditure and Labor Force survey and imputes poverty in the latest Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey. The analysis accounts for seasonality in welfare patterns and implements several tests to assess the model's predictive capacity. The results show that 48.3 percent of the Afghan population was poor as of April-June 2023, a relative decline of 4 percentage points compared to poverty levels observed over the same months in 2020. The reduction in poverty was concentrated among rural households, with a decline from 51 to 44 percent, while it stagnated in urban areas at around 58 percent. Although no poverty data exists since 2020, the evolution of self-reported welfare and food security makes it reasonable to conclude that poverty first increased during the immediate economic contraction following the regime change and has progressively declined since then
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ablaza, Christine Indonesia's Informal Economy: Measurement, Evidence, and a Research Agenda
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Employment and Unemployment ; Informal Economy Literature Review ; Informal Economy Research ; Informal Employment ; Informal Sector Policy ; Informality Literature ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Work and Working Conditions
    Abstract: Indonesia has made remarkable economic progress since the Asian Financial Crisis. To sustain its growth and achieve high-income status by 2045, it needs to address the long-standing challenge of informality. Doing so will require a coordinated policy approach informed by robust empirical evidence on the underlying causes and consequences of informality. This paper contributes to this agenda by reviewing the state of knowledge on the informal economy in Indonesia. The study focuses on three key areas of relevance to future policies on informality, namely: (1) key definitions and measures, (2) existing data sources, and (3) findings from previous research. The paper identifies remaining gaps in the existing data and empirical literature and uses this to construct an agenda for future work on the subject
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks
    Keywords: Economic Insecurity ; Economic Sentiment ; Expectations ; Living Standards ; Living Standards Measurement Survey Data ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Phone Survey ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality of Life and Leisure ; Schocks ; Social Development ; Uncertainty
    Abstract: Against the background of high inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food insecurity, this study documents the state of economic sentiments and expectations of households in five African countries--Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda--that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. Leveraging nationally representative phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five countries report that their financial situation and their country's economic situation have worsened significantly in the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are more positive, there are marked differences across countries that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly report prices to have increased considerably over the past 12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of households--home to 206 million individuals--further expect that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment, and sentiments about the household financial situation, country economic situation, price increases, and climate shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial situation has worsened in the past year are consistently more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure households, in particular, are not only more likely to report a worsening financial situation in the recent past and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2201
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Access To Finance ; Access To Services ; Digital Divide ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; G20 ; Inclusive Cities ; Information and Communication Technologies ; National Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Poverty Reduction ; Roles of Stakeholders ; Sustainability and Resilience ; Urban Development
    Abstract: In both G20 and non-G20 countries alike, cities have a crucial role to play in the achievement of national development goals. Already, cities generate more than 80 percent of global GDP and, with a share of the global population that is projected to reach nearly 70 percent by 2050, up from the current share of around 57 percent, the global importance of cities will only grow further in the decades ahead. However, whether the cities of tomorrow can fulfil their potential as drivers of national economic development will depend, to a large extent, on how inclusive they are - that is to say, the extent to which they are able to provide all their residents with quality access to services, markets, and spaces. This is because not only is inclusion in and of itself important, but because more inclusive cities are also both more prosperous and more resilient cities. At the same time, many policies that contribute to inclusive urban development carry important co-benefits for both climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as vice versa. In this context, this report addresses four important questions: (a) What is an inclusive city (b) How inclusive are cities in G20 member and guest countries, as well as in other countries, globally today (c) What instruments should policymakers draw-on to make the cities of tomorrow more inclusive or, to put it more succinctly, what can policymakers do to make their cities more inclusive And, finally, (d) What are the roles of different stakeholders - city leaders and their associated local governments; national governments, including their ministries of finance; the private sector; civil society organizations; and others - in the effective wielding of these instruments or, to put it more bluntly, who needs to do what
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  • 71
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Decarbonization ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Inclusive Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net Zero Emissions ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Resilience
    Abstract: This report explores how climate action, in line with Uzbekistan's goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2060, interacts with the country's growth and development path. It further suggests priority actions to reduce carbon emissions and build resilience while supporting inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: r02
    Keywords: Gender ; IEG Recommendation Implementation ; Independent Evaluation ; Management Action Record 2023 ; Monitoring and Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The report provides the Independent Evaluation Group's (IEGs) validation of World Bank Group management's report Learning and Adapting for Outcomes through the Management Action Record 2023: A World Bank Group Management Report on Implementation of IEG Recommendations for the period July 2022 to June 2023. The purpose of the Management Action Record (MAR) assessment system is to support accountability, learning, and adaptation for the Bank Group's implementation of recommendations from IEG evaluations. This validation document presents IEG's assessment of progress toward achieving the intended outcomes of evaluations and the evidence in management's MAR report. The Bank Group made steady progress in implementing IEG recommendations through delivering internal products and adapting processes; in some cases, it has achieved meaningful change of direction that shows that the outcomes of recommendations are being achieved. The validation assessed the evidence for all 22 IEG evaluations included in the MAR, that is, all evaluations reviewed by the Board Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) between FY19 and FY22. These 22 evaluations contain 59 recommendations
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: r02
    Keywords: Development Effectiveness ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; IEG Implementation ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Progress Towards Outcomes ; World Bank Self-Assessment ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Management Action Record (MAR) provides Management's annual self-assessment of World Bank Group (WBG)-wide progress in implementing recommendations from the Independent Evaluation Group's (IEG) major evaluations to deliver outcomes in key priority areas. The MAR is an important vehicle for monitoring the uptake of IEG evaluations; it aims to ensure that recommendations lead to targeted actions that help shape the WBG's strategic directions, improve its development effectiveness, and ultimately help countries achieve their development goals. This year's MAR report provides updates on 59 recommendations from 22 IEG evaluations issued between FY19 and FY22, covering a diverse range of areas of strategic importance to the WBG. Building on progress achieved over the previous reporting cycles since the 2020 MAR Reform, this year's MAR process featured enhanced candor in the self-assessment, a broader evidence base, and a widening of the teams involved in providing feedback to IEG for richer reporting. During this year's MAR update cycle, Management continued its more intensive engagement approach, with more touchpoints, to enhance the MAR's learning focus and build understanding between evaluators and technical staff. This has included the facilitation of dozens of evaluation-specific working meetings with IEG, involving over 130 participants from across the WBG, with representation from all relevant WB Global Practices, IFC, and MIGA regional and industry teams
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Climate Change Impacts ; Debt Indicators ; Economic Growth ; Education ; Environment ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; GHG ; Inflation ; Life Expectancy At Birth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Indicators ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Europe and Central Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Current Economic Indicators ; Equity Committment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; GDP Growth By Sector ; Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Recent Economic Developments
    Abstract: Global growth is projected to slow significantly in 2023 as continued monetary tightening constrains the credit supply. Tanzania's economy has performed relatively well despite a challenging external environment. The government recognizes that a dynamic private sector fueled both by domestic and international investment is crucial to increase productivity, accelerate job creation, and support more inclusive and resilient growth. Tanzania has several macroeconomic advantages that could support a successful transition to middle-income status. Tanzania's most urgent reform priorities include measures to improve efficiency and effectiveness of expenditure programs and boost tax-revenue mobilization. The government should assess and regulate budget transfers to state-owned enterprises to ensure their sustainability. An analysis of the implementation capacity of ministries with low expenditure execution rates could inform efforts to improve procurement systems and strengthen monitoring and evaluation. The government should adjust VAT, corporate income tax, and excise tax rates to increase revenue mobilization, and excise taxes on tobacco should be reevaluated to balance revenue and public health objectives. Strengthening taxation on wealthier households is vital to improve the equity of the tax system. Reinforcing the tax administration's auditing capacity will be necessary to boost collection efficiency and enhance distributional equity, and registration thresholds should also be adjusted to broaden the tax base. The Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology could be used to assess the impact of proposed fiscal policy changes on household income, poverty, and inequality
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Matekenya, Dunstan Malnourished but not Destitute: The Spatial Interplay between Nutrition and Poverty in Madagascar
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Equity and Development ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Hidden Hunger ; International Economics and Trade ; Malnutrition ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Small Area Estimation ; Sustainable Development Goals
    Abstract: Hidden hunger, or micronutrient deficiencies, is a serious public health issue affecting approximately 2 billion people worldwide. Identifying areas with high prevalence of hidden hunger is crucial for targeted interventions and effective resource allocation. However, conventional methods such as nutritional assessments and dietary surveys are expensive and time-consuming, rendering them unsustainable for developing countries. This study proposes an alternative approach to estimating the prevalence of hidden hunger at the commune level in Madagascar by combining data from the household budget survey and the Demographic and Health Survey. The study employs small area estimation techniques to borrow strength from the recent census and produce precise and accurate estimates at the lowest administrative level. The findings reveal that 17.9 percent of stunted children reside in non-poor households, highlighting the ineffectiveness of using poverty levels as a targeting tool for identifying stunted children. The findings also show that 21.3 percent of non-stunted children live in impoverished households, reinforcing Sen's argument that malnutrition is not solely a product of destitution. These findings emphasize the need for tailored food security interventions designed for specific geographical areas with clustered needs rather than employing uniform nutrition policies. The study concludes by outlining policies that are appropriate for addressing various categories of hidden hunger
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Accommodation and Tourism Industry ; Covid-19 Economic Recovery ; Economic Outlook ; Environment ; GDP Growth ; Industry ; Job Market Diversification ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Recent Economic Developments ; Tourism and Ecotourism ; Tourism and Jobs
    Abstract: Economic activity in Uganda is accelerating despite commodity-price inflation, global monetary tightening, international supply-chain bottlenecks, and a local Ebola outbreak. Real GDP growth is estimated to reach 5.7 percent in FY22/23, albeit still below the pre-COVID-19 projection of 6.5 percent. Growth has been supported by a robust post-pandemic recovery in the services sector, bolstered by the rapid growth of information and communications technology. Real estate and construction also performed well, while agriculture suffered from droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others, as well as rising input costs. The recovery of income and employment bolstered demand, while private investment overcame tight domestic and global financial conditions to sustain increases in new exports and manufacturing orders into the third quarter of FY22/23. As growth accelerated, Uganda's per capita income increased to about USD 930 for FY21/22, edging closer to the lower-middle-income threshold
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Access To Health Care ; Covid-19 Response ; Gender ; Gender and Health ; Health Care Providers Financial Risk ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Healthcare Equity ; National Health Insurance ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Past experience of emerging infectious diseases enabled the Republic of Korea to respond promptly to COVID-19. The government's zero out-of-pocket strategy, dedicated funding to infectious diseases, previously reformed legal and policy frameworks, and proactive risk communication minimized the impact of COVID-19 on the population's health and economy. Pre-existing universal health coverage (UHC) and the role of national health insurance (NHI) contributed to lessening this burden. The National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) reduced premiums for vulnerable populations, facilitated early financing to health care providers, provided free COVID-19-related services, and increased benefit packages covering all populations in the country. The integrated health data system managed by the NHIS was used for customized treatments and enabled policy decisions during the pandemic. Data analysis for this note shows that there were no significant socioeconomic disparities in the COVID-19 prevalence, mortality, and vaccination rates
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brunckhorst, Ben Long COVID: The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic
    Keywords: COVID and Informal Workers ; COVID-19 Impacts ; Gender ; Gender and Poverty ; Gendered COVID Impact ; Inequality ; Labor Market Impacts ; Phone Survey Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Welfare
    Abstract: This paper examines the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, using harmonized data from 343 high-frequency phone surveys conducted in 80 economies during 2020 and 2021, representing more than 2.5 billion people. The analysis focuses on the scarring effects of the initial losses of employment and income by examining their evolution over time across and within countries, as restrictions on mobility and economic activity were introduced and then gradually relaxed. The employment and welfare outcomes of some groups that were impacted to a greater degree initially-including women, informal workers, and those with less education-have been improving at a slower pace. The social protection response in lower-income economies was largely insufficient to protect households from the pandemic shock. Unmitigated welfare losses, as seen for example from the large share of households indicating income losses well into 2021, are highly correlated with food insecurity, which likely led some households to sell physical assets and deplete their savings. Without proper remediation, the uneven welfare impacts associated with COVID-19 may be amplified over the medium to long term, leading to future increases in poverty and inequality
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  • 80
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Premand, Patrick Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger
    Keywords: Boko Haram ; Cash Transfer Effectiveness ; Cash Transfers and Conflict ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Financial Terrorism ; International Terrorism and Counterterrorism ; Poverty Reduction ; Sabatoge of Government Programs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Terrorism
    Abstract: Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households' welfare and productivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The expansion of government programs may further attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. To investigate the net effect across these forces, this paper studies the impact of cash transfers on conflict in Niger. The analysis relies on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program among nearly 4,000 villages over seven years, combined with geo-referenced conflict events that draw on media and nongovernmental organization reports from a wide variety of international and domestic sources. The findings show that cash transfers did not result in greater pacification but-if anything-triggered a short-term increase in conflict events, which were to a large extent driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups (such as Boko Haram) that could have incentives to "sabotage" successful government programs
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McMillan, Margaret Labor Productivity Growth and Industrialization in Africa
    Keywords: Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; General Manufacturing ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; Manufacturing ; Manufacturing Jobs ; Manufacturing Linkages ; Poverty Reduction ; Premature Deindustrialization ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Small Firm Productivity
    Abstract: Manufacturing has made an important contribution to raising living standards in many parts of the world. Concerns about premature deindustrialization have made some observers skeptical about the potential for manufacturing to play this role in Africa. But employment in African manufacturing has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These employment gains have been accompanied by: (i) large increases in the number of small manufacturing firms, (ii) limited employment gains in large firms, and (iii) robust labor productivity growth in Africa's large firms. Limited employment growth in Africa's large manufacturing firms is partly a result of the capital intensity of the manufacturing subsectors in which African countries are most engaged-the processing of resources-and partly a result of rising capital intensity in manufacturing. The potential for manufacturing to raise living standards in Africa depends on indirect job creation by large firms through backward and forward linkages and increasing labor productivity in small firms
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Berg, Claudia Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? Evidence from India
    Keywords: Colonial Railroad ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Credit Market Imperfections ; Farming Technology ; Golden Quadrilateral ; Gravity Measures ; Increasing Returns ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Land Administration ; Land Inequality ; Landlessness ; Market Integration ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Transport Infrastructure
    Abstract: Investments in transport infrastructure lower trade costs and lead to integration of villages with urban markets. Does spatial market integration increase land inequality in rural areas Theoretical analysis by Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) suggests that the interactions of lower trade costs with credit market imperfections can increase land inequality. The primary mechanism is the adoption of increasing returns technology by large landowners facing lower trade costs which makes it more profitable to expand their scale by buying land from small, credit-constrained farmers. Using high- quality household survey data (the India Human Development Survey) on land ownership in rural districts of India, this paper provides the first evidence on the effects of market integration on land ownership inequality. It develops an instrumental variables approach exploiting two sources of exogenous variation: the location of a rural district relative to the Golden Quadrilateral network (an inconsequential place design) and the length of colonial railroad in the 1880s in a district (a historical infrastructure design). This paper discusses and deals with potential objections to the exclusion restrictions. The evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in a gravity measure of market access increases the land Gini coefficient by 2.5 percent and the share of landless households by 6.8 percent. This paper finds evidence consistent with the Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) hypothesis that the interaction of credit market imperfections with lower trade costs increases land inequality: a 10 percent increase in market access increases the adoption of increasing returns farming technology by 3.5 percent. There is a positive effect on land sales, but the instrumental variables estimates are imprecise. The robustness of the conclusions is checked by relaxing the exclusion restrictions using the Conley and others (2012) approach, and the bias-adjusted ordinary least squares estimator of Oster (2019) that does not impose any exclusion restrictions. The estimated effects of market access cannot be accounted for by the colonial land revenue system, demographic pressure on land, and differences in inheritance law between the Hindu and Muslim population in a district
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pfutze, Tobias Do Cash Transfer Programs Protect from Poverty in the Case of Aggregate Shocks? A Study on Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines
    Keywords: Aggregate Shock ; Cash Transfer Program ; Environment ; Extreme Poverty Prevention ; Natural Disasters ; Philippines Conditional Cash Transfer Program ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Typhoon Yolanda
    Abstract: Cash transfer programs are regarded as providing effective protection against poverty and household-specific negative income shocks. Little research has been done on their performance in situations of aggregate negative shocks. This paper assesses the performance of the Philippines' Conditional Cash Transfer Program in the aftermath of typhoon Yolanda in 2013. Using triple difference techniques, it finds that the program effectively protected households affected by the storm from falling into extreme poverty. It had the largest effect on nonfood consumption
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  • 84
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Fay-Herriot Model ; Geographic Approach ; Municipality Level ; Poverty Mapping ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Spatial Representation
    Abstract: Poverty mapping, the spatial representation and analysis of human wellbeing and poverty indicators is becoming an increasingly important instrument for investigating and discussing socioeconomic issues, informing targeting efforts, and guiding the geographic allocation of resources. One approach to addressing poverty is the geographic approach. In the geographic approach, poor people are identified and targeted through poverty maps. Indeed, the geographical approach is one of the methods used worldwide for targeting anti-poverty programs to reduce the gaps in social protection coverage of poor and vulnerable groups, and it has been widely implemented in several countries around the world. In 2020, the Salvador's General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses (DIGESTYC) and the World Bank started working on the project 'Poverty mapping in El Salvadora'. The project is part of the government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Programme, which is performed by experts of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and the World Bank (WB). The main objective is to calculate the shares of households living in moderate and extreme poverty at disaggregated territorial levels (municipalities). Poverty mapping enhances our understanding of the geographic distribution of people living in poverty. This report presents poverty maps at the municipality level based on the Fay-Herriot model for small-area estimations
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  • 85
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia
    Keywords: Climatic Change ; Environment ; Flooding ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Agglomeration ; Urban Climate Shock ; Urban Poverty
    Abstract: While urbanization has great potential to facilitate poverty reduction, climate shocks represent a looming threat to such upward mobility. This paper empirically analyzes the effects of climatic risks on the function of urban agglomerations to support poor households to escape from poverty. Combining household surveys with climatic datasets, the panel regression analysis for Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia finds that households in large metropolitan areas are more likely to escape from poverty, indicating better access to economic opportunities in those areas. However, the climate shocks offset such benefits of urban agglomerations, as extreme rainfalls and high flood risks significantly reduce the chance of upward mobility. The findings underscore the need to enhance resilience among the urban poor to allow them to fully utilize the benefits of urban agglomerations
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (101 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Behrer, A. Patrick Man or Machine? Environmental Consequences of Wage Driven Mechanization in Indian Agriculture
    Keywords: Agricultural Fire ; Agriculture ; Air Pollution ; Environment ; Mahatma Ghandi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act ; Mechanized Agriculture ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Labor Market Shocks ; Structural Change
    Abstract: This paper uses an exogenous shock to wages from the world's largest anti-poverty program to show that higher wages can lead to increased air pollution, likely by inducing farmers to shift into a labor-saving and mechanized production process. Using a difference-in-differences approach on the staggered roll-out of India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA), combined with data on nearly 1 million fires, the paper shows that the frequency of agricultural fires increases by 21 percent after the shock. The increase in fires is concentrated in districts that appear more likely to mechanize the harvest. MNREGA did not lead to changes in area planted or tonnage produced in fire intensive crops. The estimates show that nationally, the shock increased the rate of particulate emissions from biomass burning by 30 to 50 percent. The results suggest that absent policies to correct for environmental externalities of mechanization at all stages of development, labor market shocks may lead to inefficient levels of mechanization
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  • 87
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Merfeld, Joshua D Improving Estimates of Mean Welfare and Uncertainty in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Development Policy ; Geospacial Data ; Household Census Data ; Machine Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Prediction of Poverty ; Prediction of Wealth ; Welfare
    Abstract: Reliable estimates of economic welfare for small areas are valuable inputs into the design and evaluation of development policies. This paper compares the accuracy of point estimates and confidence intervals for small area estimates of wealth and poverty derived from four different prediction methods: linear mixed models, Cubist regression, extreme gradient boosting, and boosted regression forests. The evaluation draws samples from unit-level household census data from four developing countries, combines them with publicly and globally available geospatial indicators to generate small area estimates, and evaluates these estimates against aggregates calculated using the full census. Predictions of wealth are evaluated in four countries and poverty in one. All three machine learning methods outperform the traditional linear mixed model, with extreme gradient boosting and boosted regression forests generally outperforming the other alternatives. The proposed residual bootstrap procedure reliably estimates confidence intervals for the machine learning estimators, with estimated coverage rates across simulations falling between 94 and 97 percent. These results demonstrate that predictions obtained using tree-based gradient boosting with a random effect block bootstrap generate more accurate point and uncertainty estimates than prevailing methods for generating small area welfare estimates
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Querejeta, Martina Sharing Parental Leave between Mothers and Fathers: Experimental Evidence from a Messaging Intervention in Uruguay
    Keywords: Breastfeeding ; Father's Parental Leave ; Gender Equality Promotion ; Gender Norms ; Government Text Messaging ; Intrahousehold Childcare Roles ; Law and Development ; Parental Leave ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Parental leave has been increasingly used as a family policy to facilitate balancing care and work responsibilities and promoting gender equality. However, fathers' parental leave participation is still low, even when it offers both job and wage protection. This paper examines the effects of an information and awareness-raising intervention, delivered via email and text messages on men's and women's awareness and intentions of shared take-up of a parental leave program. The experiment provided recent and prospective parents meeting the social security requirements to benefit from parental leave with information about the program. Additionally, a subset of recent parents received messages that told them about (i) the benefits of fathers' involvement in childcare, or (ii) the importance of planning parental childcare. The intervention was successful in increasing knowledge about the parental leave program and shifting traditional gender norm views among women, regarding father's involvement and care planning. For men, knowledge about the program increased. However, the strong association between parental leave and breastfeeding led to fathers privileging mothers' use of the leave benefit. The findings show limited impact on actual leave taking, with the message about couples' leave planning increasing the effective use of parental leave among fathers compared to the information message. The results show that low-cost, targeted information interventions can have substantial effects on program knowledge among potential future beneficiaries. Although these interventions can support more equal gender roles and change gendered attitudes toward care responsibilities, they are not sufficient to shift behaviors
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Halim, Daniel Why do People Move? A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying and Predicting Gender-Specific Aspirations to Migrate
    Keywords: International Labor Migration ; Machine Learning ; Migrant Household Survey Data ; Migration and Development ; Migration and Gender ; Migration Data by Gender ; Poverty Reduction ; Work Related Migration
    Abstract: Work-related migration has many potential drivers. While current literature has outlined a theoretical framework of various "push-pull" factors affecting the likelihood of international migration, empirical papers are often constrained by the scarcity of detailed data on migration, especially in developing countries, and are forced to look at few of these factors in isolation. When detailed data is available, researchers may face arbitrary choices of which variables to include and how to sequence their inclusion. As male and female migrants tend to face occupational segregation, the determinants of migration likely differ by gender, which compounds these data challenges. To overcome these three issues, this paper uses a rich primary household survey among migrant communities in Indonesia and employs two supervised machine-learning methods to identify the top predictors of migration by gender: random forests and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator stability selection. The paper confirms some determinants established by earlier studies and reveals several additional ones, as well as identifies differences in predictors by gender
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Agri-Food Jobs ; Agricultural Pollution ; Agriculture Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Industry ; Food Industry Pollution ; Green Issues ; Green Transition Jobs ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Industry ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Youth Employment
    Abstract: The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R and D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R and D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture's current USD 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point
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  • 91
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Loeser, John Ashton Consumer Surplus with Incomplete Markets: Applications to Savings and Microfinance
    Keywords: Consumer Surplus ; Financial Inclusion ; Household Welfare Gains ; Incomplete Financial Markets ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The household welfare gains from financial inclusion are empirically elusive. This paper establishes that household welfare gains from a financial technology are equal to the area under dynamically compensated demand in a household model with incomplete financial markets, and general technology, preferences, and choice sets. This paper then estimates compensated demand for financial technologies leveraging three randomized control trials that introduce experimental variation in interest rates. Welfare gains per dollar lent or saved are small as compensated demand elasticities are large, but still correspond to large aggregate welfare gains from financial inclusion
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  • 92
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: Kosovo has gained a creditable reputation for prudent macro-fiscal management; yet necessary structural reforms and related fiscal pressures lie ahead. The country's track record includes consistently high output growth rates, prudent fiscal deficits supported by fiscal rules, and one of the lowest public debt levels among peers. The Government was able to successfully weather the COVID-19 crisis and mitigate the impact of the ongoing inflationary crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine thanks to its healthy fiscal accounts and stable financial sectors. At the same time, however, the overlapping external shocks have highlighted the inherent volatility that mirrors Kosovo's structural limitations - especially in health, energy, and education - and accentuates gaps in both human and physical capital. The objective of this Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to help the government identify means for improving the structure and quality of public services, enhance the equity of government spending, and take a holistic view of policies that will affect financing needs over time. To do so, the PER has analyzed fiscal issues that have not been explicitly detailed in, or are in the process of being incorporated into, the medium-term expenditure framework and the economic reform program. The most notable issues include the urgently needed energy investments, the ramifications of the new law on public salaries on the budget, the sustainability of the untargeted social protection system, and possible pathways of the cost of pensions in light of expected changes to eligibility criteria, and the health spending and health financing conundrum. The PER also looks back at past World Bank PER recommendations and their implementation record, in the attempt to shine a light on measures that remain valid and could still be implemented
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  • 93
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Women in Development and Gender Study
    Keywords: Empowerment ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender Equality ; Poverty Reduction ; WGE ; Women and Girls ; World Bank Projects
    Abstract: Gender equality has long been central to the World Bank's twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. More recently, women's and girls' empowerment (WGE) has become a priority in the Africa region in the context of the region's demographic transition. There has been a proliferation of World Bank projects with development objectives that include "empowerment", yet there remains a lack of consensus around its definition and operationalization. This note lays out a pragmatic Operational Approach to enhancing women's and girls' empowerment in World Bank projects. It is not intended to provide a new definition of empowerment or to present a new framework. Instead, the objective of the note is to translate widely accepted empowerment concepts into an operational approach to WGE that Bank Task Team Leaders (TTLs) can use in their project and ASA work. The approach includes: (i) a systematic way to analyze constraints to achieving WGE in the context of lending or analytical products; (ii) a list of potential intervention areas within the three empowerment pillars that can be integrated into World Bank projects; and (iii) guidance on how to incorporate the operational approach to WGE into project design
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Financial Sector ; Fiscal Policy ; Growth and Poverty ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rice Economy
    Abstract: In the last two years, Liberia's economic performance has improved. Inflation remained in single digits despite high global food and fuel prices and a relaxation in monetary and fiscal policies. Liberia's poverty rate is projected to have declined slightly in the last two years as GDP growth rebounds and inflation moderates. On the external side, Liberia's current account balance improved in 2022, thanks to the continued increase in mining export earnings. The increase in gold export in 2022 offset the increase in imports. Liberia's medium-term economic outlook is positive, but uncertainties remain. Even as it has been trying to recover from a decade of weak economic and social performance, Liberia's overall productivity and economic efficiency remain low, especially in vital sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Demographic trends, economic growth, and a strong preference for rice are the main drivers of demand. Yet, Liberia produces only one-third of its rice needs due to several constraints, including limited access to technology, inefficient farming practices, low public and private investments, and a fragmented value chain, among other factors that have kept productivity low. Amid low production, the increase in imported rice prices continues to fuel food insecurity, poverty, and vulnerabilities in Liberia. Domestic production would need to triple to satisfy local demand, but increasing production would require significant investments in the rice sector, as well as policy actions. This report provides some broad directions for policies
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Equity ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Areas
    Abstract: This report relies on several data sources. The main source providing the poverty, inequality and labor figures herein is the 2019/20 Household Budget Survey (Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar, IOF2019/2020) conducted by the National Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, INE) starting in November 2019 and spanning 13 months. The survey's sample was drawn from the 2017 Census and allows for poverty figures to be representative at national and provincial as well as rural and urban levels. The fieldwork included data collection from 13,297 households interviewed across four quarters as in previous surveys, to account for seasonality effects like the impact on households' consumption of relatively more abundant post-harvest periods. The starting point for the analysis is chapter 1, which synthesizes progress in reducing poverty between 2014-15 and 2019-20. This chapter also looks at the regional distribution of poverty, the impact of the pandemic, multidimensional poverty, the profile of the poor, changes in the responsiveness of poverty to growth, discusses trends in non-monetary dimensions of wellbeing, and simulates future poverty trends. Chapter 2 examines the distribution of growth and inequality reduction over the period, the pandemic's impact, discusses the growth-poverty-inequality relationship, assesses the spatial dimensions of poverty, and estimates the Human Opportunity Index for Mozambique. Chapter 3 focuses on labor markets and provides insights into labor force participation, unemployment, underemployment, employment sectors, child labor, and labor market demand conditions. Chapter 4 presents a fiscal incidence analysis and information on transfers. Chapter 5 examines the relevance of environmental shocks, assesses the impact of weather events on agricultural production and night-time light radiance in urban areas. It also models poverty and distributional impacts of climate change shocks and presents findings on climate change literacy in Mozambique. Finally, chapter 6 discusses a variety of policy implications
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: DEBT Management ; Fiscal Sector ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Ghana's economy entered a full-blown crisis in 2022, after having rebounded from the COVID-19 slowdown in 2021. In response to the macroeconomic challenges, the authorities enacted some fiscal adjustment in 2022 but fell short of their consolidation targets; the 2023Q1 fiscal deficit (cash) was within target. Expenditure consolidation and revenue mobilization continued to be hampered by structural constraints. To address these unsustainable domestic and external imbalances, the authorities embarked on a comprehensive debt restructuring operation. Against the backdrop, growth is projected to decelerate further in 2023-24, before picking up in the medium-term. The government has embarked on an ambitious fiscal consolidation plan: however, delivering on it will require addressing long-standing revenue mobilization and budget control weaknesses. In 2023, the authorities intend to finance the fiscal deficit from multilateral (and other official) sources, in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - supported program, and from the domestic treasury bills (T-bills) market. In addition, leveraging government programs to build up resilience against vulnerability is an imperative and should not be suspended during the crisis. Beefing up the government's payments through the livelihood empowerment against poverty will be critical. Second, support for food self-sufficiency is needed in Ghana (a goal for many countries now due to the global food crisis), while opening the country to generate more export revenues. The Ghana Tree Crops Diversification Project can serve as a critical puzzle piece of the country's current challenges. The project will support poverty alleviation while setting the country up to generate more foreign revenues in the medium to long-term
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Grover, Arti Do Shocks Perpetuate Disparities within and across Informal Firms? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia
    Keywords: COVID Shock To Informal Firms ; COVID-19 Economic Recovery ; COVID-19 Impact ; Equity and Development ; Firms in Crisis ; Informality ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Private Sector Support
    Abstract: Using three rounds of data from the Business Pulse Survey in South Asia, this paper studies the differential effects of the COVID-19 shock on informal firms. It also captures heterogeneity within informal firms based on the degree and motivation of informality. The findings suggest that the severity of the impact of the COVID-19 shock and the recovery speed are strongly associated with the degree of informality. Firms' external attributes, such as size, sector, age, and gender of the owner, do not explain the depth of the impact. Internal characteristics such as poor management capabilities and education of the manager and owners are strong predictors of vulnerability among informal firms. In particular, necessity firms experience a larger drop in sales relative to the parasitic type of informal firms. To add to this, the adjustment response (for example, the use of digital platforms) of informal firms is smaller, which perpetuates the gap between formal and informal firms. Within informal firms, the parasitic type typically have a smaller adjustment response. These findings have implications for policies to support the private sector in the presence of informality, including considerations pertaining to targeting, modality of support, and the instruments required for designing more impactful programs during shocks
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brar, Rajdev Rebel with a Cause: Effects of a Gender Norms Intervention for Adolescents in Somalia
    Keywords: Adolescent Gender Norm Intervention ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Social Policy ; Gender Impact Evaluation ; Gender Inequality ; Gender Innovation Lab, Africa Region ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norm Conformity ; Girl's Life Choices ; Poverty Reduction ; Women's Empowerment
    Abstract: Gender inequality and restrictive norms are often reinforced and internalized during adolescence, influencing pivotal life choices. This paper presents results from a randomly-assigned gender norms intervention for young adolescents in Somalia that led to greater support for gender equality in reported attitudes among both girls and boys. In a novel lab-in-the-field experiment designed to observe social group dynamics, treated adolescents were also found to be less likely to succumb to peer pressure to conform when stating their gender attitudes in public. Perceptions of gender norms appears to shift for boys, leading to a greater public expression of gender egalitarian ideals. Furthermore, the findings show improved adolescent mental health, increased caring behavior towards siblings of the opposite sex, and a higher likelihood of involvement in household chores by boys. A complementary gender norms intervention for parents had limited marginal impact on the attitudes and behaviors of adolescents. The results suggest that gender norms interventions can be effective in influencing the attitudes and public discourse around gender equality, even in early adolescence
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: COVID-19 Impact ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equity and Development ; Household Survey Data ; Household Survey Design ; Impact of Shocks on Households ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Questionnaire Design ; Shocks and Household Welfare
    Abstract: Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced multiple global crises in the last few years. As countries adapt to a new normal, multi-topic household surveys should also be adapted to account for the impacts of shocks on household welfare. By reviewing the standard household survey questionnaires included in the guidebook, capturing what matters: essential guidelines for designing household surveys, the authors provide technical guidance on issues to consider when reviewing, designing, or updating questionnaires for household surveys during or after a major shock - relying on lessons learned from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study program
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (96 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Where is Poverty Concentrated? New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban andPoverty Measurements
    Keywords: Cost of Living ; Global Poverty ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measurement Framework ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Statistic Comparison ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Poverty ; Urbanization
    Abstract: The lack of comparable urban definitions across countries has presented a significant challenge in effectively addressing poverty in both urban and rural areas. This study aims to tackle this issue by comparing subnational poverty statistics across countries, integrating internationally consistent definitions of urban areas into the World Bank's official global poverty measurement framework. Focusing primarily on 16 Sub-Saharan African countries, the analysis reveals that poverty rates tend to be lower in densely populated urban areas. However, the findings also highlight that urban areas have a higher concentration of impoverished populations than previously estimated. These results underscore the importance of employing consistent urban definitions in cross-country poverty analysis and call for a reevaluation of geographically targeted policies to expedite poverty reduction efforts
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