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  • 2020-2024  (163)
  • 1960-1964
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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (163)
  • International Economics and Trade  (163)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Islamaj, Ergys The Sovereign Spread Compressing Effect of Fiscal Rules during Global Crises
    Keywords: Communicable Diseases ; Covid-19 Crisis ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Rules ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics and Trade ; International Financial Markets ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Sovereign Spreads
    Abstract: Do fiscal rules help suppress sovereign spreads during periods of global financial stress Yes! This paper examines whether fiscal rules contribute to mitigating sovereign spreads in emerging markets and developing economies during periods of heightened financial and economic volatility worldwide. It finds that the presence of fiscal rules is statistically significantly associated with lower sovereign spreads during the COVID-19 crisis -- about 350 basis points lower on average. Interestingly, this correlation persists even when nations deviate from these rules, indicating an expectation of post-crisis compliance. The study shows that deviations from fiscal rules are typically short-lived, with fiscal balance rules reinstated within 3.5 years. Robustness checks, including controls for institutional quality, fiscal rule strength, and global and regional factors confirm these results. Overall, the findings suggest that fiscal rules can help emerging markets and developing economies signal fiscal responsibility during episodes of global financial stress, reducing borrowing costs relative to countries without fiscal rules
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bastos, Paulo The Quality and Price of Africa's Imports of Digital Goods
    Keywords: Digital Goods ; ICT Applications ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Prices ; Quality ; Trade Agreements
    Abstract: Imported digital goods are critical for productivity growth in low-income countries. Using detailed data on international trade flows and tariffs, this paper finds that African nations tend to import relatively low quality, low price digital goods. It also finds that digital goods in Africa are subject to relatively higher tariffs, along with other factors that contribute to their higher cost in the domestic market compared to other regions, especially in some low-income countries. The findings show that the African Continental Free Trade Area will do little to reduce this tariff burden, as most digital goods are sourced from higher income nonmembers. In contrast, unilateral tariff liberalization toward all countries would significantly increase the imports of digital goods in Africa
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz The Costs Come before the Benefits: Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Assistance Need ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Displacement ; Financial Inclusion ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Humanitarian Aid ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Labor Market Inclusion ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugees ; Self-Reliance
    Abstract: When host countries allow refugees to earn income, two main groups benefit: refugees, who become financially autonomous, and international institutions that can reduce the humanitarian aid that would otherwise be needed to support refugees. Uganda is one of the more progressive countries when it comes to promoting the financial independence of refugees and shifting from humanitarian aid to development ways of working. This note considers how successful refugees in Uganda have been in becoming financially independent and estimates how assistance has been saved due to these efforts at economic inclusion. Using the international poverty line of USD 2.15 in 2017 purchasing power parities to proxy the costs of basic needs, the results suggest that the amount of total aid needed was reduced by almost 45 percent. They also show that many refugees live in poverty, implying that the present combination of aid and work is inadequate to assure a decent standard of living. While more assistance is needed in the short run, reductions in development assistance are feasible but require upfront investments in refugee earning capacity to realize them
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Artuc, Erhan Trade, Outsourcing, and the Environment
    Keywords: Border Carbon Adjustment ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Carbon Tariffs ; Carbon Tax ; CO2 Emission Leakage ; Environment ; Environment and Trade ; Environmental Policy ; International Economics and Trade ; Law and Development ; Tax Law
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of carbon taxation and border carbon adjustments in a setting where firms can choose to respond to taxation by abating or by outsourcing part of their production. For this, this paper sets up a general equilibrium trade model, calibrated with world trade and input-output data that features a discrete choice production structure, where the producers choose between outsourcing or abating emission-intensive intermediate production steps. The paper finds that border adjustments that cannot target scope 3 emissions can lead to outsourcing, and thus leakage, further down the value chain, but nevertheless induce higher abatement both in the countries that impose the border adjustment and in the ones affected by it
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
    Keywords: East Asia ; FDI ; FDI Policy Reforms ; Foreign Direct Investment ; International Economics and Trade ; Liberalization ; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: A new report from the World Bank Group focuses on the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI), which encompasses foreign investment in new or existing firms and production facilities. FDI is a subset of overall capital flows, but it is perhaps the most critical because of its potential development impact and stability relative to other cross-border capital flows. Foreign capital flows to developing countries fell to an estimated USD 662 billion in 2022 from an average of over USD 1 trillion in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. Declining investment flows to developing markets largely reflect weaker macroeconomic prospects, geopolitical tensions, as well as the lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The trend is also linked to the ongoing process of shifting global value chains and the transformation of investment in terms of modes of entry, sources, and sectors, among other dimensions. Growing climate change impacts, rising interest rates, and policy changes in advanced countries--such as incentives for green investments and localization of supply chains for key technologies--have also had far-reaching implications for the allocation of investment across the globe. The study seeks to provide a granular analysis of shifts in foreign direct investment flows and policy trends and suggests responses that developing countries may consider in order to reverse recent declines and to enable more private capital to support their development needs
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Environment ; Green Transformation ; International Economics and Trade ; Plastic Substitutes ; Sustainability ; Trade ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Climate change - and efforts to mitigate and adapt to it - will affect global flows of trade and Indonesia's ability to transition to a more environmentally sustainable economy on its path to become a high-income economy is, therefore, interlinked with trade policy. Environmental policy stringency (EPS) is increasing around the globe - a crucial challenge lies in harmonizing these with sustained economic growth, yet both goals can be reached. Although trade flows facilitate emissions, they are also a critical part of the solution, including through trade in environmental goods (EGs) and plastic substitutes - with important economic spillovers. This report provides a detailed analysis of the role of trade and trade policy on EGs and plastic substitutes in Indonesia's green transition. Chapter one describes the need for, and urgency of, this transition, by looking at the carbon intensity of Indonesia's trade, the impacts of environmental policies of Indonesia and key trading partners, and the roles of EGs. Chapter two examines where Indonesia stands on the level of trade in EGs and plastic substitutes and the competitiveness of EGs trade. Chapter three explores trade agreements and tariffs and simulates potential impacts of tariff reforms - including through multilateral actions. Chapter four examines what non-tariff measures (NTMs) apply on the products including inputs of firms exporting EGs and assesses which NTMs may be costly. Finally, chapter five concludes with policy recommendations
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Green Goods ; Green Technologies ; Green Trade ; International Economics and Trade ; Low-Carbon
    Abstract: Although Indonesia's economy has diversified over the past decades, natural resource extraction remains a key sector for both the domestic economy as well as international trade. Indonesia's ability to diversify away from primary products, reduce carbon emissions, adapt to climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy is strongly interlinked with trade and trade policy. To position itself to benefit from the global transition to a non-carbon economy, Indonesia needs to adapt to new sources of international demand, adjust its existing productive capabilities, and cultivate new green industries. This note analyzes the carbon content of Indonesia's trade flows
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Vazquez, Emmanuel Trade and Local Labor Market Outcomes in Mexico: Disentangling the Channels and the Role of Geography, Sectors, and Trade Types
    Keywords: Connectivity ; Education Spending ; Employment ; Exports ; Global Value Chains ; Imports ; Informality ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Labor Market ; Local Impacts ; Migration ; Trade and Labor
    Abstract: This study provides new evidence on the local labor market impacts of trade, differentiating between the employment, income, migration, and informality channels. It uses a unique dataset matching information on exports and imports from customs with indicators on employment and labor incomes for around 2,000 Mexican municipalities over 2004-14. The analysis uses an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of trade across municipalities with global trends in trade between low- and middle-income countries (excluding Mexico) and the United States by sector. First, the study finds that expanding exports per worker in Mexico's municipalities increased labor force participation but not employment rates. Exports also raised total labor incomes but not average labor incomes, implying a growing labor supply. The results also find that export and import expansion increased immigration and lowered the rate of informal workers. Second, the analysis examines differences by geography and sectors. It finds that trade affected labor markets in the North through the income and migration channels and in the South through the employment and informality channels. Exports benefitted the total incomes of workers in both the manufacturing and service sectors but reduced informality only in manufacturing. Third, the study suggests a more favorable role of intermediate relative to final imports, driven by manufacturing imports. It also finds evidence for positive spillovers from global value chain participation through the employment and income channels. Finally, it examines how local policy mediates the labor market effects from trade, focusing on connectivity, labor market flexibility, and education spending
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (75 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Garcia-Santana, Manuel Understanding Home Bias in Procurement: Evidence from National and Subnational Governments
    Keywords: Border Effects ; Competition Policy ; Economic Integration ; Governance ; International Economics and Trade ; Local Bias ; Local Business Support ; National Bias ; Public Procurement
    Abstract: Are governments locally biased when buying goods and services? Can this home bias explain the low integration of procurement markets? Using one million procurement contracts awarded in France and Spain, this paper explores whether the home bias follows the government's geographical scope: national governments have a national bias, while subnational governments have a local bias. The relative home bias across governments is estimated by comparing how local and non-local establishments sell the same product to national and subnational governments in the same destination. This paper finds that the governments' home bias explains a big part of the high local concentration in procurement
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Jaud, Melise Stock Market Liberalizations and Export Dynamics
    Keywords: Disciplining Role of Foreign Investors ; Export Competitiveness ; Export Dynamics ; Export Efficiency ; Export Performance ; Financial Liberalization and Structural Change ; Foreign Investment In Exports ; International Economics and Trade
    Abstract: Foreign investors facilitate efficiency-enhancing structural change in the recipient countries. After countries liberalize their stock markets and allow foreign investors to acquire equity stakes in domestic firms, products that do not correspond to the liberalizing countries' comparative advantage disappear disproportionately faster from their export portfolios. At the same time, the overall long-term export performance of the liberalizing countries improves. Domestic stock market development does not have the same disciplining effect in terminating inefficient exports. Foreign investors thus play a unique role in improving resource allocation in the real economy
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Speeches of World Bank Presidents
    Keywords: Concessional Resources ; Debt Distress ; Debt Markets ; Debt Sustainability ; Debt Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Global Growth Outlook ; Governance Standards ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: These remarks were delivered by the World Bank Group President David Malpass during the Launch of the January 2023 Global Economic Prospects Report on January 10, 2023. He addressed the following topics: global growth outlook; rising levels of debt distress and possible directions to achieve debt transparency and sustainability; the need for greatly expanded resources for developing countries, including deeply concessional resources; and attractive investment climate and governance standards
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Investment Climate Assessment
    Keywords: Digital Sector ; Domestic ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Governance ; International ; International Economics and Trade ; Legal Instruments
    Abstract: This Investment Policy and Regulatory Review (IPRR) presents information on the legal and regulatory frameworks governing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria. Since legal and regulatory frameworks are constantly evolving, a cut-off date was set for the research. This country review therefore covers information available as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise indicated in the review. This IPRR is organized as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the country's investment policy framework, including the legal instruments regulating foreign investment, key institutions involved in investment promotion, as well as the country's foreign investment promotion strategy; it also delineates the country's international investment legal framework, including the country's commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO) and select international investment agreements (IIAs); Sections 3-6 cover the country's policies and domestic legal framework concerning different dimensions of the lifecycle of an investment: entry and establishment (Section 3), protection (4), incentives (5) and linkages (6); Sections 7-8 explore emerging investment policy and regulatory areas - Section 7 considers outward FDI and Section 8 responsible investment; Section 9 focuses on city-specific investment policy and regulatory measures in the largest commercial center; and Section 10 covers FDI in the digital economy
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ghose, Devaki Offshoring Response to High-Skilled Immigration: A Firm-Level Analysis
    Keywords: EU Labor Law ; EU Labor Policy ; Globalization ; Globalized Labor Market ; Immigration ; International Economics and Trade ; Offshoring ; Private Sector Development ; Skilled Short-Stay Immigrants
    Abstract: Using a policy change in the Netherlands in 2012 that made it easier and less costly for firms to employ high-skilled short-stay non-European Union workers and a matched employer-employee data, this paper shows that firms in high-skill industries respond by both employing a higher share of non-European Union immigrants and increasing the total amount of offshoring to non-European Union countries. With reduced costs of hiring short-stay non-European Union workers, small firms hire and fire more non-European Union workers in a given year. Many of these workers return to their home countries, establishing direct connections that boost offshoring to firms in the Netherlands. By contrast, large firms absorb some of the workers leaving the small firms. These workers also establish connections between their host and origin countries, boosting offshoring
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als He, Yiming Synthesis of the Impacts of Covid-19 on India's Labor Market: Looking at People, Places and Policies
    Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic Impact ; Employment of Marginalized Social Groups ; Gender and Rural Labor ; Informal Jobs ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Market ; Post-Pandemic Employment Recovery
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Covid-19 on a host of labor market outcomes in India, using a continuous household survey. Cross-sectional trends of headline indicators like unemployment and labor force participation indicate a quick recovery after the unprecedented shock of the pandemic. However, women, marginalized social groups, and youth were more adversely affected, largely due to the nature of their employment before the pandemic. Next, a fixed-cohort analysis with a difference-in-differences regression framework is used to follow the labor market trajectories of a Covid-affected cohort and a pre-Covid cohort for comparison, over a span of 12-16 months. A story of downward transitions emerges, with movements out of the labor force, into more informal and lower-paid types of work in agriculture and rural areas. Higher education and being located in dense, urban areas partially mediated the adverse shocks of Covid-19. Lastly, India's extensive vaccination campaign had significant positive impacts on employment recovery
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fiorin, Stefano How do Borrowers Respond to a Debt Moratorium? Experimental Evidence from Consumer Loans in India
    Keywords: Consumer DEBT Repayment ; DEBT Forbearance ; International Economics and Trade ; Loan Repayment ; Moral Hazard ; Relational Contracting ; Repayment Flexivility Benefits
    Abstract: Debt moratoria that allow borrowers to postpone loan payments are a frequently used tool intended to soften the impact of economic crises. This paper reports results from a nationwide experiment with a large consumer lender in India, designed to study how debt forbearance offers affect loan repayment and banking relationships. In the experiment, borrowers receive forbearance offers that are presented either as an initiative of their lender or the result of government regulation. The results show that delinquent borrowers who are offered a debt moratorium by their lender are 4 percentage points (7 percent) less likely to default on their loan, while forbearance has no effect on repayment if it is granted by the regulator. Borrowers who are offered forbearance by their lender also have causally higher demand for future interactions with the lender: in a follow-up experiment conducted several months after the main intervention demand for a non-credit product offered by the lender is 10 percentage points (27 percent) higher among customers who were offered repayment flexibility by the lender than among customers who received a moratorium offer presented as an initiative of the regulator. Overall, the results suggest that, rather than generating moral hazard, debt forbearance can improve loan repayment and support the creation of longer-term banking relationships not only for liquidity but also for relational contracting reasons. This provides a rationale for offering repayment flexibility even in settings where lenders are not required to provide forbearance
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amann, Juergen The Effects of Energy Prices on Firm Competitiveness: Evidence from Chile
    Keywords: Chilean Annual National Industrial Survey Data ; Competitiveness ; Firm Level Technology Adoption ; Firm Productivity ; Fossil Fuel ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Sector Development, Competition Policy, Energy Prices
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of changes in energy prices on the competitiveness of manufacturing firms in Chile. Using the Chilean Annual National Industrial Survey data, the paper illustrates that, first, increases in energy prices generally do not hurt firm competitiveness. Second, the impact of energy prices depends on the fuel type-while electricity price increases are negatively correlated with firm outcomes, fossil fuel price increases have a positive association with investment and firm productivity, a result that is consistent with the strong version of the Porter hypothesis. Third, these effects are heterogeneous and vary by firm attributes such as size, ownership and location. Fourth, investigating non-linear patterns in firm outcomes based on the level of energy prices, the findings show that the positive correlation between fossil fuel price increases and capital upgrading is particularly pronounced when energy prices are at relatively low levels
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Development Effectiveness ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; International Economics and Trade ; Procurement Capacity Building ; Procurement Of Goods ; Procurement Of Services ; Procurement Reform ; Public Procurement ; Public Procurement Of Works
    Abstract: In 2015, the World Bank approved a new procurement framework, which aimed to reform its approach to procurement. The World Bank's reform was intended to reform its procurement systems and the way procurement is supported in client countries. The procurement reform emphasized seven core principles of value for money for decision-making, efficiency, economy, integrity, fairness, transparency, and fit for purpose. Anchoring the reform in a set of principles was intended to promote greater flexibility and more effective operational procurement. The procurement reform is a continuous change management process. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the results, successes, and challenges of the World Bank's procurement since the reforms made in 2016 and thus help inform its continuation
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Investment Climate Assessment
    Keywords: Energy ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; International Economics and Trade ; Investor-State Conflicts ; Regulatory Risks ; Renewable Energy ; Renewable Energy Sector
    Abstract: Increasing private investment is critical to meeting the growing energy needs in developing countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) can contribute significantly-by bridging the financing gap but also by facilitating knowledge and technology transfer. A key factor impeding the ability of countries to attract and retain FDI is political risk - more specifically, a subset of political risks-risks caused by government's own regulatory actions. Such risks can also lead to costly legal disputes between investors and states. This report explores these risks in the renewable energy (power generation) sector, the prevalence of investor-state disputes associated with such risks, the fiscal and reputational implications of disputes, and policy options for governments to prevent them
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (91 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baiker, Laura Services Trade Policies across Africa: New Evidence for 54 Economies
    Keywords: Data for Policy Analysis ; International Economics and Trade ; Services Trade Competitiveness ; Services Trade Regulation ; Trade Agreements and Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy and Integration ; World Trade Organization ; WTO
    Abstract: In 2023, the global coverage of the Services Trade Policy Database, jointly developed by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, has been significantly expanded to cover more economies, focusing in particular on the African continent. This enhancement is accompanied by expanded sector coverage including, inter alia, tourism and health care services, which are of particular interest to many African economies. The collection, processing, and vetting of regulatory data took place during 2020-22 and was supported by the German Development Agency GIZ, the European Commission and the International Trade Centre, respectively, as part of their support for the African Continental Free Trade Area negotiations. This paper presents evidence on the 2020/21 state of applied services trade policy across 54 African economies. It offers detailed comparisons of policy stances across economies, broad sectors, subsectors, and modes of supply. Services trade policies in Africa are generally relatively restrictive, albeit with substantial dispersion across economies within each sector. Professional services are the most restricted, while computer and distribution services appear as the least restricted sectors. Larger economies in terms of market size tend to be more restrictive toward services trade, whereas economies with better institutions, including higher regulatory quality, tend to be more open. At the same time, relatively high levels of restrictiveness in transportation among the more industrialized economies may curtail connectivity and thus hamper African economies' international integration prospects. Landlocked economies also seem to miss an opportunity to alleviate pre-existing geographical disadvantages with more open transportation service policies. Overall, the wealth of quantitative information on policy restrictiveness presented in this paper, along with the underpinning regulatory information, provides a factual basis for the advancement of policy reform, regional integration, and cooperation in service sectors
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 40504
    Keywords: Africa Regional Weather Enterprise (ARWE) ; Early Childhood Development ; Early Warning Services (EWS) ; Education Indicators and Statistics ; Hydrological and Meteorological (HYDROMET) ; Hydromet Projects ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Sector Hydromet Firms ; School Health ; Vendor Research ; Water Resources
    Abstract: This study focuses on the role of the private sector in the development and delivery of hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) and early warning services (EWS) in Sub-Saharan Africa within the current landscape of the Africa Regional Weather Enterprise (ARWE). The study begins with a global industry overview of 87 participating companies who either work in or have interest in the region's hydromet market. It highlights the types of activities, end-user categories, research and development, and focuses on innovation and capacity building initiatives that underpin the key components of the following pages. The study analyzes how private sector actors operate within the framework of national, regional, and international hydromet projects. It makes an inventory of ongoing initiatives that focus on the current status of public-private engagements (PPE) and partnerships for development of the ARWE. This report concludes by drawing on lessons from the positive dynamics and gaps in partnerships and engagements between public and private actors. It supplies 16 recommendations to further improve the ARWE by emphasizing PPE, successfully completing African hydromet programs, and satisfying enduser needs. The recommendations are focused on protecting lives and property while supporting national economies for the prosperity of all
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kee, Hiau Looi Quantifying Economic Impacts of Trade Agreements with Heterogeneous Trade Elasticities
    Keywords: Brexit ; Economic Impact of Trade Agreements ; International Economics and Trade ; Law and Development ; Trade Elasticities ; Trade Elasticity and Tariffs ; Trade Policy ; Treaties ; Welfare Gains From Trade
    Abstract: Bilateral trade relationships between countries vary across products. Such heterogeneity poses challenges when assessing the economic impacts of trade agreements. This paper estimates bilateral trade elasticities at the product level and explores these impacts using a hypothetical no-deal Brexit as an example. The findings indicate that the European Union's demand for the United Kingdom's products is often less elastic compared to products from other trading partners. The findings also show substantial heterogeneity in the elasticities across products and a negative correlation between these elasticities and tariffs. These factors mitigate the extent of trade welfare losses compared to a scenario using homogeneous elasticities
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Winkler, Deborah Linking Trade to Jobs, Incomes, and Activities: New Stylized Facts for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Employment ; Employment Sectors ; General Manufacturing ; Global Value Chains ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Occupations ; Trade Facilitation
    Abstract: Trade expansion can create more and better jobs. This paper revisits the linkages between trade and jobs, focusing on employment, labor incomes, and job activities across a large sample of countries and sectors over 1995 to 2018. Instrumental variables regressions and new input-output measures of jobs and activities in exports highlight several patterns: Exports and especially imports of intermediate inputs are associated with more jobs and higher incomes, while final imports show weaker correlations. Manufacturing has the biggest potential for job and income creation both directly and indirectly in supplying sectors. As countries move from specialization in commodities to limited manufacturing to advanced manufacturing and services global value chains, export-employment and export-income elasticities increase. Global value chain-intensive developing countries tend to have larger shares of production activities in exports compared to resource-intensive countries. As countries get richer, nonproduction activities in exports, such as support, engineering, and managerial services, become increasingly important. Finally, the paper explores the role of policy for the export job share across countries
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Matekenya, Dunstan Malnourished but not Destitute: The Spatial Interplay between Nutrition and Poverty in Madagascar
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Equity and Development ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Hidden Hunger ; International Economics and Trade ; Malnutrition ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Small Area Estimation ; Sustainable Development Goals
    Abstract: Hidden hunger, or micronutrient deficiencies, is a serious public health issue affecting approximately 2 billion people worldwide. Identifying areas with high prevalence of hidden hunger is crucial for targeted interventions and effective resource allocation. However, conventional methods such as nutritional assessments and dietary surveys are expensive and time-consuming, rendering them unsustainable for developing countries. This study proposes an alternative approach to estimating the prevalence of hidden hunger at the commune level in Madagascar by combining data from the household budget survey and the Demographic and Health Survey. The study employs small area estimation techniques to borrow strength from the recent census and produce precise and accurate estimates at the lowest administrative level. The findings reveal that 17.9 percent of stunted children reside in non-poor households, highlighting the ineffectiveness of using poverty levels as a targeting tool for identifying stunted children. The findings also show that 21.3 percent of non-stunted children live in impoverished households, reinforcing Sen's argument that malnutrition is not solely a product of destitution. These findings emphasize the need for tailored food security interventions designed for specific geographical areas with clustered needs rather than employing uniform nutrition policies. The study concludes by outlining policies that are appropriate for addressing various categories of hidden hunger
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Levelu, Anthonin Deep Trade Agreements and International Migration: The Role of Visa Provisions
    Keywords: Bilateral Migration Stock ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Deep Trade Agreements ; Immigration ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Migration Policy ; Public Administration ; Regional Trade Agreement ; Visa Cost
    Abstract: An increasing number of regional trade agreements contains provisions that ease access to visas among member countries, which reduces the administrative cost of crossing the border. Combining United Nations data on bilateral stocks of immigrants in the period 1990-2020 with World Bank data on the content of 279 regional trade agreements, this paper presents robust evidence of a positive effect of visa provisions in regional trade agreements on bilateral migration: the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 5.9 percent. This result is robust to an instrumental variable strategy addressing the endogeneity problem. The effect of the inclusion of visa provisions in regional trade agreements is particularly effective among country pairs with different income levels (such as North-South). For this type of country pairs, the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 13 percent. Finally, the paper shows that the effectiveness of visa provisions in regional trade agreements reduces with the anti-immigration sentiment of voters in the destination
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Felbermayr, Gabriel J Revisiting the Trade-Creating Effects of Non-Tariff Barriers
    Keywords: Bilateral Exchange ; International Economics and Trade ; Mismeasured Tariff Data ; Non-Tariff Barriers ; Regional Trade Agreement Effectiveness ; Tariffs ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade Policy ; Trade Promotion
    Abstract: Modern regional trade agreements focus on promoting bilateral exchange mostly by lowering non-tariff barriers to trade. But do existing regional trade agreements actually deliver what they promise This paper argues that existing results in the literature are upward biased because of measurement error in a crucial control variable: tariff rates. Using a novel data set of high-quality tariff information, the paper shows that, on average, non-tariff barriers reductions in deep regional trade agreements boost services trade but not goods trade. Estimating separate non-tariff barrier effects for each regional trade agreement reveals strong heterogeneity: only 23 percent of all regional trade agreements seem to lower non-tariff barriers. For most regional trade agreements, we fail to find any significant effect, while 9 percent appear to reduce trade, possibly because a more balanced regulation evens out comparative advantages. The trade agreements that foster trade the most include non-discriminatory trade policy changes
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (68 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iacovone, Leonardo Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program
    Keywords: Bayesian Impact Evaluation ; Competition Policy ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Management ; Prior Elicitation ; Private Sector Development ; Randomized Experiment ; Social Policy Evaluation Method
    Abstract: Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Vergara Cobos, Estefania Growth and Transformative Effects of ICT Adoption: A Survey
    Keywords: Digital Technology Adoption ; Household Welfare ; Individual Welfare ; Information and Communications Technology (ICT) ; International Economics and Trade ; Internet and Economic Growth ; Productivity ; Rural Labor Market
    Abstract: This paper provides a compressive synthesis of the most recent and widely cited literature on the economic effects of information and communications technology adoption at the country, firm, and individual levels. The study surveys and analyzes the available literature on the topics of economic growth and transformation, and highlights the main conclusions drawn by scholars, areas of ongoing debate, and remaining research questions that need to be addressed in future work. Over 85 percent of the reviewed papers are of quantitative nature, and approximately 32% of those show causal effects. The majority of the studies find a positive relationship between the adoption of information and communications technology and country economic growth, firm level growth, household/individual welfare, or labor conditions, with most showing statistically significant results. The paper shows that, for policy making purposes, the effects of information and communications technology adoption should be thoroughly evaluated at all levels to ensure that the benefits outweigh any potential negative consequences
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fattal Jaef, Roberto N On the Welfare Costs of Premature Deindustrialization
    Keywords: Allocation of Resources ; Efficient Sectoral Allocation ; Industry ; Inefficiency ; International Economics and Trade ; Premature Deindustrialization ; Service Sector ; Welfare Costs
    Abstract: Developing countries are deindustrializing at earlier stages of development than experienced by advanced economies. Is this trend symptomatic of inefficiency If so, what are the welfare costs This paper proposes a definition of premature deindustrialization based on whether the pace of deindustrialization diverges from the one implied by a theoretical benchmark of efficient sectoral allocation. It identifies 10 episodes of premature deindustrialization, carrying negligible welfare costs, below 1 percent of aggregate consumption
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (90 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Blum, Jurgen Rene Introducing E-Procurement in Bangladesh: The Promise of Efficiency and Openness
    Keywords: E-Procurement ; Governance ; Government Procurement ; Impact Evaluation ; International Economics and Trade ; Public Procurement
    Abstract: Governments around the world spend about one-third of their budgets through public procurement systems where electronic administration of public tenders promises great benefits. However, surprisingly little is known about how, under which circumstances, and through which features electronic systems work. To address these questions, this paper looks at the introduction of an electronic procurement system compared to a fully paper-based system in Bangladesh in 2011-16. The impact of the electronic procurement system on access to public tenders, their economy, and administrative efficiency is estimated. Contracts were matched both within procuring entities and years, and fixed effects regressions were run to address biases emanating from nonrandom assignment to treatment. The findings show an overwhelmingly positive impact. Access improves, with the number of bidders increasing by 1.6-2.2 and the probability of a single bidder decreasing by 7.8-13.5 percentage points. Economy also improves as discounts firms offer increase by 7.4-8.0 percentage points. Administrative efficiency greatly improves too: the total time of processing a tender-starting from the public call for tenders to contract signature-drops by 15.6-19.2 days. However, it is possible that low performance and rent-seeking were displaced to the contract implementation phase, which remained principally paper-administered. These results indicate that the government directly saved USD 460 million to USD 513 million in the analyzed electronic tenders, largely due to increased winning rebates and lower advertising costs. Considering the indirect macro effects, the introduction of electronic procurement increased Bangladesh's gross domestic product by 0.48 to 0.54 percent, or USD 1.4 billion to USD 1.6 billion in 2019
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gomez, Maria DelMar The Economic Effects of Market Integration in the Western Balkans
    Keywords: European Union Accession ; International Economics and Trade ; Quantitative Spatial Models ; Regional Integration ; Trade Facilitation ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: In the Western Balkans, trade and transport policy reforms that reduce waiting time at the border by just three hours are equivalent to removing a value-based tariff of 2 percent. Reform gains are maximized when they are coordinated across economies and implemented jointly: cross-border coordination in the implementation of the package of national single window and other trade facilitation reforms would generate 8 percent higher gains than if each economy were to carry out the reforms autonomously. The impacts of trade reforms and improvements in road infrastructure would be further amplified if Western Balkan economies belonged to the European Union, which would result in an additional 6 percent boost to welfare. Moreover, the accession of Western Balkan economies to the European Union would have positive spillover welfare effects for countries such as Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, and negligible effects for other EU members
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Montfaucon, Angella Faith Early Impacts of Indonesia's Investment Reforms: A Preliminary Analysis
    Keywords: Domestic Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Liberalization ; Investment Reform Effectiveness ; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: The Indonesian government implemented comprehensive investment reforms in 2021 to encourage investment inflows and related positive impacts. Compared to the previous investment regulation in 2016, the new decree removed foreign direct investment restrictions in over 500 business activities. By estimating the difference in difference in difference event study model, this paper empirically assesses the response in (realized and planned) foreign direct investment and realized domestic direct investment to the reforms. The paper also assesses whether there was growth in investments in fully liberalized sectors linked to Sustainable Development Goals as a proxy for the quality of investment. The results suggest that the investment reforms were associated with increases in realized foreign direct investment, realized direct domestic investment, and planned foreign direct investment, especially in fully liberalized sectors, while there was a decline in all three types of investments in the non-liberalized sectors. The results for planned foreign direct investment suggest that the increase in fully liberalized sectors is likely to continue. The results on direct domestic investment suggest a possible crowding-in effect. Among the fully liberalized sectors, the base metal industry was a key driver of growth, and sectors linked to Sustainable Development Goals sectors had mixed results. The findings provide suggestive evidence of the complementary effect of trade reforms, although the analysis does not specify which of the several reforms may have led to the increase. These results are robust when the possible effects of Covid-19 recovery and other macroeconomic factors are controlled for. These results are also robust to alternative event study models. Further analysis would be needed to observe the trajectory in both the quality and quantity of investment going forward, the distributional effects and the needed complementary reforms to ensure sustainable gains beyond the short run
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Zaveri, Esha D Export Diversification from an Activity Perspective: An Exploration using Occupation Data
    Keywords: Climate Resilience ; Drought ; Export Competitiveness ; GDP Growth and Drought ; Green Water ; International Economics and Trade ; Land Use ; Rainfall Shocks ; Soil Moisture
    Abstract: With international production fragmentation, countries specialize in activities along the production chain rather than particular products. This paper therefore analyzes export diversification taking an activity perspective. It measures export activities combining new data on the export income of workers in industries cross classified by occupational classes. Based on the panel data, the paper documents that countries initially specialize along the extensive margin (shifting activities across industries) but later on along the intensive margin (shifting activities across occupational classes). New activity specialization is found to be strongly related to the proximity of this activity to the initial export basket. Yet, countries that defy proximity appear to grow faster. The results show that an activity perspective delivers novel insights into trade development and structural change
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iimi, Atsushi Estimating Road Freight Transport Costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia using Large Shipping Data
    Keywords: International Economics and Trade ; Regional Integration ; Road Freight Rates ; Rural Development ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Shipping Charge Elasticity ; Shipping Cost Increase ; Supply Chain ; Trade and Transport
    Abstract: The recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 crisis, remind us of the importance of efficient transportation and logistics. Notably, however, even before the crises, some regions were already experiencing a gradual increase in freight costs, with more and more empty trucks observed. The paper recasts light on the question of how road freight costs are determined using large, unique shipping data from Eastern European and Central Asian countries. It finds that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight or load factor and distance. The elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high at about 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms. Thus, to contain trucking costs, it is important to maximize the load factor through freight consolidation at origins and destinations. The elasticity with respect to distance is relatively modest at 0.04 to 0.16 in absolute terms but still statistically significant, indicating that distance may not necessarily be a constraint on trade and regional integration. Trucking costs also decrease with driving speed, a proxy for efficiency of movements or road conditions. The elasticity is significant for food products (-0.03) and other consumer goods (-0.11). Finally, the paper finds that border crossing adds 3-4 percent to freight costs
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; GDP ; International Economics and Trade ; Job Creation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Macroeconomy
    Abstract: The Rwanda Economic Update No. 21 reviews the country's macroeconomic performance and prospects and includes a special section focusing on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the domestic economy. After growing by 8.2 percent in 2022, Real GDP expanded by 9.2 percent in the first quarter of 2023. However, this growth momentum may have been halted by disastrous flooding and landslides from the recent rains. Inflation has eased but remained well above the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) target range in the first half of 2023, despite a tightening of monetary policy since January 2022. Rwanda's current account deficit improved in 2022, with higher export revenues and remittances outweighing rising import prices. The fiscal deficit narrowed in FY2022-23 thanks to a large decline in public spending, and strong growth which combined to reduce Rwanda's debt as a share of GDP. Prospects for continued high growth are good, and the fiscal and debt positions are expected to improve over the next few years. The special topic emphasizes the large size of FDI inflows, encouraged by a favorable regulatory environment and improvements in governance. FDI in Rwanda appears to generate significant employment benefits, both in terms of job creation by FDI firms and related increases in hiring by domestic firms. FDI firms also appear to have strong linkages with local firms, particularly domestic suppliers, and tend to provide higher-quality jobs than domestic firms, in terms of access to social security. However, forecasts of the volume of inflows and of employment provided when registering with the Rwanda Development Board turned out to be highly optimistic, raising concerns on both limits on FDI firms and the potential for misrepresentation to gain access to incentives. FDI projects tend to be concentrated in Kigali and surrounding districts, which have much lower poverty rates than the national average, and in general there is a negative association between the level of poverty and FDI inflows. Policies to improve the impact of FDI on inclusiveness could involve encouraging FDI projects in poorer districts, promoting greater participation by women and youths, enhancing corporate social responsibility initiatives, strengthening the monitoring and ex post performance assessment of FDI, improving linkages between FDI projects and domestic suppliers, and encouraging the home country of investors to enforce mandatory standards that enhance the sustainability and inclusivity of FDI
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (102 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amin, Mohammad The Resilience of Smes and Large Firms in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Decomposition Analysis
    Keywords: Competition Policy ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; COVID-19 Impact ; COVID-19 Pandemic Supply Chain Disruption ; Decomposition ; Firm Size ; Firm Size and Resilience ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Small And Medium Size Enterprise (SME) ; Small and Medium Size Enterprises ; Supply Chain Disruption Impact
    Abstract: This study analyzes the difference in the decline in sales between small and medium-size enterprises and large firms (the "gap") following the outbreak of COVID-19 in 19 developing countries. The decline in sales as a percentage of the pre-pandemic level was bigger for small and medium-size enterprises by 12.2 percentage points. The paper uses the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder and quantile decomposition methods to estimate individual factors' contributions to the gap at the mean and across the sales decline distribution. Several important results emerge. First, relative to large firms, small and medium-size enterprises faced greater incidence of input supply disruptions during the pandemic, had lower initial labor productivity levels, and were concentrated in country-industry cells with a bigger sales declines. These differences in the level of factors widened the gap. Small and medium-size enterprises also suffered more than large firms from a given level of financial constraints, input supply disruptions, and country-industry-specific factors, and benefitted less from a given level of initial labor productivity. These differences in the returns to factors also widened the gap. Second, the gap was much larger at the relatively high quantiles of sales decline distribution, indicating that relative to large firms, small and medium-size enterprises were much less resilient to large shocks than small shocks. Third, individual factors' contribution to the gap varied across the sales decline distribution. Thus, the optimal policy mix depends on the size of the shock. Fourth, there were some important differences between geographical regions in what drove the gap. Thus, an eclectic policy approach is needed that duly accounts for the prevailing local conditions
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baez, Javier E A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts: Evidence from Turkiye
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Growth ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Data on National Income ; Economic Development Analysis ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth Cycles ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Analyses ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measurement of National Income ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Economic Activity ; Spatial Inequality
    Abstract: This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Turkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector's gross value added during the post-2009 rebound-consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity-with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dahis, Ricardo MiDES: New Data and Facts from Local Procurement and Budget Execution in Brazil
    Keywords: Administrative and Regulatory Law ; Budget Execution ; Competitive Tender ; International Economics and Trade ; Law and Development ; Local Public Procurement Data ; Municipal Public Finance ; Payment Timeliness ; Public Procurement ; Reproducible Research Repository ; Subnational Public Finance
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new disaggregated and harmonized dataset on public procurement and budget execution by Brazilian subnational entities, which currently covers half of Brazilian municipalities and spans the years 2003-21. This dataset provides key information that was previously unavailable from aggregate data, such as the identities of suppliers, details on purchases of goods and services, and granular information on the life cycle of each expenditure action. It then uses these data to provide new stylized facts about local public finance. First, it shows that about one-quarter of government purchases are locally procured and discusses implications for efficiency. Second, it demonstrates that close to 15 percent of payments exceed the 30-day threshold and that payment timeliness is systematically correlated with the income level of the municipality
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Corridor Digitalization ; Infrastructure ; International Economics and Trade ; Middle Corridor (MC) ; Trade and Transport ; Trade Flows
    Abstract: The Middle Corridor (MC) is a multimodal transport corridor connecting China to Europe, which has been receiving elevated attention following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The MC links China, and Kazakhstan by rail through Dostyk or Khorgos/Altynkol, crosses Kazakhstan by rail to the Aktau Port, crosses the Caspian Sea to the Port of Baku/Alyat, and Azerbaijan and Georgia by rail to then either continue by rail to Europe through Turkiye or crossing the Black Sea. Due to inefficiencies and infrastructure gaps in Turkiye, the Black Sea route is currently preferred by operators. This report focuses on the route traversing Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia; a subsequent study will focus on Turkiye. The MC, with its numerous border crossings, transshipments between modes and operational inefficiencies, takes three times longer than the Northern route (via Russia) and is comparable in duration to the maritime route. As a result, it has consequently held a lower priority for long-distance trade
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Freund, Caroline Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains?
    Keywords: 10-Digit Us Import Data ; Bilateral Trade Decoupling ; China Supply Chains ; Diversification ; Global Value Chains ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Sector Development ; Reshoring ; Tariffs ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data (tariff-line level) between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 to 16 percent. The paper shows that the decline is due to US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. Countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated into China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China, especially in strategic industries. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. Within products, the reorientation of trade is consistent with a "China + 1" strategy, as opposed to diversified sourcing across multiple countries. There is some evidence of nearshoring, but it is exclusive to border nations, and there is no consistent evidence of reshoring. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of imported goods to the US in 2022
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moya, Andres The Fine Line between Nudging and Nagging: Increasing Take-Up Rates through Social Media Platforms
    Keywords: Amnesties ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Forcibly Displaced People ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Information Technology ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Program Take-Up Rate ; Psychology ; Refugees ; Regular Employment ; Reproduceable Research ; Social Development ; Whatsapp Informational Video Distribution
    Abstract: This study assesses if nudges in the form of informational videos sent via WhatsApp are effective in boosting take-up rates among vulnerable populations, specifically in the context of a regularization program for Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. The study randomly assigned 1,375 eligible migrants to receive one of three informational videos or be in a control group. The videos aimed at solving issues related to awareness, trust, and bottlenecks in the step-by-step registration. The main results indicate that program take-up rates for individuals who received any video were eight percentage points lower compared to the control group. The effects are mostly driven by the treated individuals who received the links but did not watch the videos, who are older, busier, and have less internet access relative to other treated individuals. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of iterative WhatsApp surveys in collecting data from hard-to-reach populations. It finds that while iterative WhatsApp surveys had low retention rates, iterative contacts helped to reduce attrition. Furthermore, switching behaviors from nonresponse to response were common after iterative contact attempts
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bucekuderhwa, Celestin B Trading in Clusters and the Future of Small-Scale Trade in the Borderlands of the Great Lakes Region of Africa
    Keywords: Cluster Trading Approach ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact ; Cross-Border Trade Income ; International Economics and Trade ; Poverty and Trade ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Small Scale Traders ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper presents a coping strategy that small-scale cross-border traders adopted in response to the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and examines its impact. Using a cross-sectional data set of 1,159 traders from the borderlands of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, the paper assesses the impact of adopting the Cluster Trading Approach on trade outcomes, household income and poverty reduction. When applying a local average treatment effect approach, the findings reveal that adoption of the CTA causes at least 21 and 31 percentage point increases in traders' turnover and profit respectively. The household income analysis and poverty decomposition highlight an increase in income, even within the depth and severity of poverty. Thus, although access to capital is important for small-scale cross-border traders joining a cluster according to the literature, the results show that the level of capital is less important for income increase once there. As the results are robust to competing explanations and heterogeneity of the sample, the paper concludes that the Cluster Trading Approach is a poverty-reducing strategy and discusses the challenges for its sustainability
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  • 45
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ghose, Devaki Firms in Global Value Chains during Covid-19: Evidence from Indonesia
    Keywords: Global Value Chain ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industrial and Market Data and Reporting ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; Non-Tariff Measures ; Port Congestion ; Port of Entry Restriction Impact ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Resilience ; Trade Policy ; Value Chain Participation
    Abstract: Using detailed monthly firm-level trade data from Indonesia from February 2019 to June 2021, this paper shows that firm-level exports were overall more resilient than imports during Covid-19. Firms that participated in global value chains were more resilient to the Covid-19 shock beyond the immediate short-run compared to firms that did not. However, among global value chain firms, those that faced certain types of non-tariff measures on their import products, notably port of entry restrictions, on average faced larger reductions in export quantities and number of transactions compared to firms that did not face such restrictions, consistent with the evidence of major port congestion during Covid-19. Therefore, although international connectedness could be a source of vulnerability to global shocks in the immediate short run, policies that enable firms to be more globally engaged through global value chains could enhance resilience. Relatedly, tackling measures such as port of entry restrictions can ensure fast and efficient port and customs procedures, especially during periods of high port congestion, as global value chain trade requires goods to cross borders many times
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nana, Ibrahim The Trade-Growth Nexus: Evidence of Causality from Innovative Instruments for Trade
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; GDP Growth and Trade ; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ; Instrumental Variable ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade Investment
    Abstract: During the past decades, extensive literature has emphasized the role of both international trade and openness in fostering economic growth. Endogeneity bias is a nagging challenge for any empirical attempt to study the causal relationship between trade and economic growth. This study contributes to the existing stock of knowledge and helps to address these challenges by introducing new instrumental variables for trade. The study samples 197 countries over 1970-2020. The findings suggest that international trade has a positive and significant effect on gross domestic product per capita, which tends to be higher for emerging markets and development economies. Thus, the study provides an enhanced empirical foundation for the expectation that investments made to support trade are also good for economic growth, especially in emerging markets
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Abman, Ryan Child Labor Standards in Regional Trade Agreements: Theory and Evidence
    Keywords: Child Labor ; Child Labor Ban Microdata ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Markets ; Poverty and Trade ; Regional Trace Agreements ; Trade Liberalization
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of child labor standards in regional trade agreements on a variety of child labor market outcomes, including employment, education, and household inequality. It develops a stylized general equilibrium model of child labor in an economy open to international trade and considers the impact of regional trade agreements with and without child labor bans. The paper empirically investigates the effects of these clauses in trade agreements in a broad international panel of 101 developing countries, using harmonized survey microdata. Exploiting quasi-experimental methods to obtain plausibly causal estimates, the analysis finds that regional trade agreements without child-labor bans lead to reductions in child employment and increases in school enrollment, particularly for older children aged 14-17 years. Child labor bans in regional trade agreements perversely increase employment of children aged 14-17 years and decrease school enrollment for both young and older children. These effects appear to decrease inter-household income inequality through increased child earnings. The findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions from the model and the literature on child labor bans
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Francois, Joseph Pursuing Environmental and Social Objectives through Trade Agreements
    Keywords: Binding Commitments ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Civil Rights ; Development Cooperation ; Environment ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Standards ; Non-Trade Objectives ; Trade Agreement
    Abstract: Using a data set covering more than 120 countries spanning several decades, this paper employs a synthetic difference in difference estimator to study whether non-trade provisions on labor standards, environmental protection and civil and human rights in trade agreements yield improvements in corresponding indicators. The paper distinguishes between binding (enforceable) and non-binding provisions and investigates linkages between non-trade provisions and official development assistance. The analysis finds no evidence that provisions related labour or civil rights improved the associated outcome indicators, while evidence on environmental outcomes is mixed. Official development assistance is significantly greater with non-binding environmental and civil rights provisions, but not with labor standards
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  • 49
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Shrestha, Maheshwor A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Economic Development ; Growth ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Inverse-U ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migration ; Migration Hump ; Migration Patterns ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations-such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change-play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McMillan, Margaret Labor Productivity Growth and Industrialization in Africa
    Keywords: Business in Development ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; General Manufacturing ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; Manufacturing ; Manufacturing Jobs ; Manufacturing Linkages ; Poverty Reduction ; Premature Deindustrialization ; Productivity ; Productivity Growth ; Small Firm Productivity
    Abstract: Manufacturing has made an important contribution to raising living standards in many parts of the world. Concerns about premature deindustrialization have made some observers skeptical about the potential for manufacturing to play this role in Africa. But employment in African manufacturing has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These employment gains have been accompanied by: (i) large increases in the number of small manufacturing firms, (ii) limited employment gains in large firms, and (iii) robust labor productivity growth in Africa's large firms. Limited employment growth in Africa's large manufacturing firms is partly a result of the capital intensity of the manufacturing subsectors in which African countries are most engaged-the processing of resources-and partly a result of rising capital intensity in manufacturing. The potential for manufacturing to raise living standards in Africa depends on indirect job creation by large firms through backward and forward linkages and increasing labor productivity in small firms
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Steenbergen, Victor What Makes an Investment Promotion Agency Effective? Findings from a Structural Gravity Model
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation ; Gravity Model ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment Promotion ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sectoral Foreign Investment Data
    Abstract: Although many countries have established investment promotion agencies over the past two decades, there is little evidence on what characteristics make them effective in attracting foreign direct investment into their home country. To provide new insight into this question, this paper brings together sectoral foreign direct investment data with survey data on investment promotion agency characteristics. Using a structural gravity model framework, it explores the effect of investment promotion agencies' sectoral targeting on inward foreign direct investment stocks over 2013 to 2018, across a sample of 36 middle- and high-income countries. The study finds that investment promotion agency sectoral targeting provides a significant positive effect on the sector's foreign direct investment stock in that country. Yet, a gravity model with country-interaction effects suggests that not all countries are equally effective at promoting investment. The results from the model are used to define two groups: high-performing investment promotion agencies (those with positive, significant effects in attracting foreign direct investment) and other investment promotion agencies (those with insignificant or negative significant effects). Using t-tests, the study considers which investment promotion agency characteristics significantly differ between the two groups. The findings suggest that effective investment promotion agencies are more likely to be private or semi-private agencies. Their mandate tends to be focused narrowly on foreign investment and exclude responsibilities for domestic investment promotion. Such investment promotion agencies are more likely to have a board of directors, and their staff tends to be better compensated. Finally, high-performing investment promotion agencies tend to provide more investor services, partly by engaging smart, sectoral analytics and adopting systems for identifying investor complaints or disputes
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
    Keywords: Data Usage ; Dataset ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Non-Tariff Measures ; NTMS ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: As import tariffs have been declining over the past decades, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become the most frequently used measures in trade policy. The increasing use of NTMs in global trade has highlighted the need for timely, high frequency and accurate data in order to better understand the implications that NTMs have on products, firms and the economy. This manual describes the first high-frequency panel dataset built by the World Bank on the universe of NTMs applied by a country, id est Indonesia. The manual includes a comprehensive overview of the purpose, building procedures and usage of the data for Indonesia. The dataset expands on and improves on existing data on Indonesian NTMs collected by other institutions (UNCTAD and ERIA) by covering a broader source base, customizing the data, and by increasing the frequency of updates. By documenting the data collection and transformation process, the manual hopes to facilitate the construction of similar datasets in other countries
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Choi, Yewon Trade Promotion Organizations in the Pandemic World
    Keywords: COVID Impact on Trade Promotion ; COVID-19 Pandemic Impact ; COVID-19 Trade Recovery Plan ; Crisis Recovery ; Global Value Chains ; International Economics and Trade ; Trade Promotion Organization Budgets
    Abstract: A 2021-22 survey of trade promotion organizations conducted by the World Bank to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their functioning suggests four main findings. First, trade promotion organizations in high-income countries are larger than those in low-income countries, suggesting a stronger capacity to adapt during the pandemic. Second, trade promotion organizations in high-income countries saw a significant jump in their median budget in 2021 indicating a strong response effort. In low-income countries, the budgets of trade promotion organizations declined. Third, most trade promotion organizations in high-income countries put in place a COVID-19 recovery plan, while none of the trade promotion organizations in low-income countries had one in place at the time of the survey. Fourth, trade promotion organizations used several virtual tools during the pandemic, such as business-to-business matching events and training of small firms on e-commerce, and are expecting to increase the use of all virtual tools post COVID-19. Trade promotion organizations' use of virtual tools in low-income countries remained limited
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  • 54
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stamm, Kersten The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies
    Keywords: Developing Economies ; Emerging Market Growth ; Instititutions and Macroeconomy ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Growth ; Investment Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades through the medium term. This subdued outlook follows a decade-long, geographically widespread investment growth slowdown before the COVID-19 pandemic. An empirical analysis covering 2000-21 finds that periods of strong investment growth were associated with strong real output growth, robust real credit growth, terms of trade improvements, growth in capital inflows, and investment climate reform spurts. Each of these factors has been decreasingly supportive of investment growth since the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Weak investment growth is a concern because it dampens potential growth, is associated with weak trade, and makes achieving the development and climate-related goals more difficult. Policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances, but include comprehensive fiscal and structural reforms, including repurposing of expenditure on inefficient subsidies. Given EMDEs' limited fiscal space, the international community will need to significantly increase international cooperation, official financing and grants, and leverage private sector financing for adequate investment to materialize
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (90 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als di Giovanni, Julian Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy
    Keywords: Aggregate Productivity ; Business in Development ; Capital Accumulation ; Financial Friction ; Firm Dynamics ; Governance ; Government Procurement ; International Economics and Trade ; National Governance ; Private Sector Development ; Procurement Rules ; Small and Medium Size Enterprises ; Small Firm Growth Constraint
    Abstract: This paper provides a framework to study how different allocation systems of public procurement contracts affect firm dynamics and long-run macroeconomic outcomes. It builds a novel panel dataset for Spain that merges public procurement data, credit register loan data, and quasi-census firm-level data. The paper provides evidence consistent with the hypothesis that procurement contracts act as collateral for firms and help them grow out of their financial constraints. The paper then builds a model of firm dynamics with asset- and earnings-based borrowing constraints and a government that buys goods and services from private sector firms, and uses it to quantify the long-run macroeconomic consequences of alternative procurement allocation systems. The findings show that policies which promote the participation of small firms have sizeable macroeconomic effects, but the net impact on aggregate output is ambiguous. While these policies help small firms grow and overcome financial constraints, which increases output in the long run, these policies also increase the cost of government purchases and reduce saving incentives for large firms, decreasing the effective provision of public goods and output in the private sector, respectively. The relative importance of these forces depends on how the policy is implemented and the type and strength of financial frictions
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Tillan, Pablo Reassessing the Impacts of Exports on Local Labor Market Outcomes: A Supply Chain Perspective - Evidence from the Arab Republic of Egypt
    Keywords: Export Competitiveness ; Export Impacts ; Firm Dynamics ; Gender and Labor Markets ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Market Outcomes ; Labor Markets ; Limited Export Sector ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper examines the overall impact of exports while accounting for supply chain linkages on local labor market outcomes in the Arab Republic of Egypt between 2007 and 2018. The paper assesses the effects not only on directly exporting industries, but also on industries indirectly affected by rising export demand. Furthermore, it examines potential impacts on specific groups of workers, such as high-skilled individuals and female workers. The results show that trade does not lead to the same connection with domestic labor markets in Egypt as observed in other countries, as highlighted in the existing literature explaining the adverse effects of imports on developing countries. Despite being more open to trade, trade-intensive industries in Egypt have not experienced a significant increase in their share of employment within the overall workforce. To harness the benefits of trade, Egypt must undertake deeper reforms aimed at significantly expanding the export sector
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fontagne, Lionel Trade and Infrastructure Integration in Africa
    Keywords: Economic Integration ; Export Transportation Infrastructure ; General Equilibrium ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Infrastructure Finance ; International Economics and Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Structure Gravity ; Transport Infrastructure Investment
    Abstract: Economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investment in transportation infrastructure. Leveraging a newly created city-level database on African exporters' transport times, transport route optimization and general equilibrium modeling of international trade, the paper quantifies the impact of greater trade and transport integration in Africa. A pan-African agreement, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, would increase African countries' exports by an average of 3.4 percent and increase gross domestic product by 0.6 percent. Complementing trade integration by reducing transportation time on roads, ports and border posts would increase exports by 11.5 percent and increase gross domestic product by 2 percent. Major transport investments are necessary to reap the full benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Zavala, Lucas Quality Regulation Creates and Reallocates Trade
    Keywords: Agricultural Trade ; Agriculture ; International Economics and Trade ; Market Concentration ; Non-Tariff Trade Measures ; Phytosanitary Regulation ; Quality Regulation ; Reallocation ; Sanitary Trade Barriers ; Trade Facilitation ; Trade Policy ; Trade Quota
    Abstract: Quality regulation has become the dominant instrument of trade policy. Panel evidence shows that regulations classified as sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade both increase trade on average. Other non-tariff measures like quotas decrease trade. Sanitary and phytosanitary measures reallocate trade from lower-income exporting countries to higher-income exporting countries, while technical barriers to trade measures do the opposite. Sanitary and phytosanitary and technical barriers to trade measures increase the sales concentration of exporting firms from lower-income countries, but do not affect the concentration of exporting firms from higher-income countries or importing firms. The costs of quality regulation are primarily borne by exporting firms, especially in lower-income countries
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso Exports to Jobs: Morocco's Trade Patterns and Local Labor Market Outcomes
    Keywords: Firm Dynamics ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gendered Employment and Exports ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Market Outcome ; Macroeconomic Growth ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Liberalization Policy
    Abstract: Morocco's trade liberalization policies coincided with macroeconomic growth over the past two decades. The relationship between trade liberalization and individual-level labor market outcomes, however, are not well understood. By combining three complementary approaches and modeling techniques, this paper estimates (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes, and (iii) the relationship between firm employment and exports. The results show that tariffs have fallen and trade as a share of gross domestic product has increased. Morocco's trade agreements, however, are not always associated with higher trade flows. Furthermore, trade has led to mixed results for workers. Increased trade has decreased informality but may have adversely affected female labor force participation. Trade liberalization seems to have induced a shift from female labor-intensive industries, such as apparel, to capital-intensive sectors that are predominantly male-intensive. The firm-level analysis confirms these results by showing that increases in employment from exports has occurred mainly in male, capital-intensive sectors
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dahmani Scuitti, Anais Geospatial Analysis of Displacement in Afghanistan
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Displacement ; Econometric Regressions ; Geospatial Analysis ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; International Economics and Trade ; Migration ; Nighttime Light ; Social Analysis ; Social Development
    Abstract: Given increasing levels of displacement due to conflict and climate change, it is important to establish robust monitoring systems. This paper explores how remote sensing data, particularly geospatial data, can be leveraged to monitor displacement flows. It draws lessons from northeastern Afghanistan, namely the 2018 drought, which is considered one of the worst in decades. The analysis identifies displacement patterns by combining displacement data from the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix with nighttime lights. The results suggest that the cumulated displacement movements from 2018 to 2020 can be proxied by trends in nighttime light imagery. Settlements with higher net inflows of displaced persons between 2018 and 2020 have comparatively larger nighttime light growth. Allowing for nonlinearity suggests decreasing marginal returns of displacement on nighttime lights, as settlements showing the largest expansion of nighttime lights are those with the lowest displacement inflows. The model uses data on nighttime lights to predict whether a settlement was a net receiver of displacement flows during 2018-20 and correctly classifies 63.2 percent of the settlements as net inflow or net outflow. This study provides a proof of concept to test whether population displacements can be proxied using geospatial data trained on administrative records in a data-scarce environment, where real-time insights can inform humanitarian assistance. This work was done before the political crisis of August 2021
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Economic Diversification ; Global Value Chains ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; MSMES ; Regional Urban Development ; Supply of Services ; Sustainable Growth ; Trade ; Urban Health
    Abstract: The services sector has been the main source of economic growth in recent decades, with logistics, finance and information technologies playing an essential role in the functioning of modern economies while business services, healthcare and entertainment feature among the world's fastest growing sectors. This publication - co-published by the WTO and the World Bank - underlines the contribution that trade and investment in services can make to economic growth and development and highlights, in particular, the importance of re-energizing international cooperation on services trade
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  • 62
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Export Competitiveness ; External Sector ; Fiscal Sector ; International Economics and Trade ; Monetary and Financial Sector ; Productivity Challenges ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Real GDP growth decreased to an estimated 1.9 percent in FY23, the lowest rate since FY20 and substantially below the 10-year average growth rate. Monetary tightening and the effects of import restrictions contributed to the slowdown. Economic activity was particularly subdued in the industry and services sectors, while agricultural output remained more resilient. Strong energy sector growth helped to avoid an industrial contraction, since manufacturing and construction outputs shrank. Hydroelectric generation increased significantly for the second year in row and added close to 500 megawatts of hydroelectric power to the national grid. Nepal nevertheless remains a net energy importer. Slow credit growth and import restrictions contributed to a reduction in private investment on the demand side. Lower capital expenditure and revenue underperformance drove lower public investment. As a result, total investment decreased by more than 10 percent, a sharper reduction than in FY20. Private consumption remained robust, owing to strong remittance inflows
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Shepherd, Ben Leveraging Trade for More and Better Job Opportunities in Developing Countries: A Framework for Policy
    Keywords: Economic Integration ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Tariff ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Trade-Related Tax
    Abstract: Trade and labor markets are intimately connected. This connection presents governments with a dual economic challenge that cannot be resolved without social compromise: maximizing aggregate gains but minimizing disaggregated costs, which can include losses to individuals and groups. This paper draws on recent research to develop a framework for thinking rigorously about these linkages. It then examines aspects of policy design and implementation that relate directly to labor market outcomes. It discusses three sets of policies that are required to help resolve the government's dual challenge in a sustainable way: policies for people, sectors, and places. The framework includes policies to mitigate losses and facilitate movement of workers, classical trade policies, and a broad set of complementary policies that reduce trade costs. It also looks at the need for fiscal space to implement policies, and highlights the tension between tariff reductions and trade-related taxes, especially in countries where trade taxes account for a significant proportion of total government revenue
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bertoli, Simone Migration, Families, and Counterfactual Families
    Keywords: Counterfactual Reasoning ; Family Formation ; Human Rights ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrant Policy ; Migrants Families ; Migration ; Remittances ; Status Quo Bias
    Abstract: Migration changes how families form and dissolve, and how one should conceptualize the family. This has implications for thinking about how the migration decision is modelled when individuals are unable to picture the counterfactual families they may have. Differences in marital status can induce two otherwise identical individuals to make different migration decisions. It also has implications for attempts to causally estimate impacts of migration, when the family composition changes with the migration decision itself. This paper shows empirically that changing marital status after migration is widespread, and that the traditional model of a fixed family sending off a migrant who remains part of that same family only describes a minority of migrants moving from developing countries to the U.S. The authors draw out lessons from thinking about counterfactual families for empirical research and for migration policy
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
    Keywords: Climate-Related ; Competitiveness ; Cost ; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation ; Global Value Chains ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Local Trade ; Mekong Region ; Product Diversification ; Supply Chain Finance ; Trade Finance ; Trade Finance and Investment ; Women Owners
    Abstract: Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic and Viet Nam -- the so-called Mekong-3 -- have experienced rapid trade growth over the last ten years. However, growth could be boosted even further by improving access to trade finance, such as loans and guarantees, for locally owned businesses seeking to trade globally. This publication presents the results of two surveys undertaken by the IFC to determine the level of trade finance available to businesses in the Mekong region. An analysis of the data conducted by the WTO explores the potential impact of an expansion in trade finance and how this could lead to greater integration into world trade and more inclusiveness, with increased participation in global supply chains by small businesses and women-owned enterprises. The publication is intended to serve as a guide to how domestic financial sectors can reorient their operations to support cross-border trade and enhanced access to global markets
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (62 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Larch, Mario Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework
    Keywords: Deep Trade ; Deep Trade Agreements ; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ; International Economics and Trade ; Trade Liberalization
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment. To this end, it focuses on the effects of deep trade agreements. The analysis relies on a structural framework that simultaneously enables (i) estimating the direct impact of deep trade agreements on foreign direct investment, (ii) translating the partial deep trade agreement estimates into general equilibrium effects on foreign direct investment; and (iii) obtaining partial deep trade agreement effects on trade and quantifying the impact of deep trade agreements on foreign direct investment through trade. The paper obtains sizeable, positive, and statistically significant estimates of the effects of deep trade agreements on both trade and foreign direct investment. A counterfactual analysis suggests that together with direct and indirect channels deep trade agreements have contributed
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Egger, Peter H Deep Trade Agreements and Firm Ownership in GVCs
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Ownership ; International Economics and Trade ; International Investment ; Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) ; PTA Depth
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the effect of preferential trade agreements and their depth on firm ownership, in particular, along global value chains. It measures shareholder-affiliate ownership links at the country-sector-pair level to discern between vertical and horizontal links. The findings show that preferential trade agreements boost vertical international investment links (both backward and forward) while reducing horizontal investment. Deep preferential trade agreements stimulate investment particularly for sector pairs, where a high input specificity prevails
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alessandria, George The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020-2022
    Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic Impact ; Industry ; Input-Output Structure ; International Economics and Trade ; Shipping Delays ; Supply Chain ; Supply Chain Disruption ; Supply Chain Friction ; Trade and Transport ; Waining Stimulus Effects
    Abstract: This paper studies the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of sup- ply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. The paper fits the model to the United States and global economies over 2020|2022 and estimates large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. The model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Berg, Claudia Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? Evidence from India
    Keywords: Colonial Railroad ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Credit Market Imperfections ; Farming Technology ; Golden Quadrilateral ; Gravity Measures ; Increasing Returns ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Land Administration ; Land Inequality ; Landlessness ; Market Integration ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Transport Infrastructure
    Abstract: Investments in transport infrastructure lower trade costs and lead to integration of villages with urban markets. Does spatial market integration increase land inequality in rural areas Theoretical analysis by Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) suggests that the interactions of lower trade costs with credit market imperfections can increase land inequality. The primary mechanism is the adoption of increasing returns technology by large landowners facing lower trade costs which makes it more profitable to expand their scale by buying land from small, credit-constrained farmers. Using high- quality household survey data (the India Human Development Survey) on land ownership in rural districts of India, this paper provides the first evidence on the effects of market integration on land ownership inequality. It develops an instrumental variables approach exploiting two sources of exogenous variation: the location of a rural district relative to the Golden Quadrilateral network (an inconsequential place design) and the length of colonial railroad in the 1880s in a district (a historical infrastructure design). This paper discusses and deals with potential objections to the exclusion restrictions. The evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in a gravity measure of market access increases the land Gini coefficient by 2.5 percent and the share of landless households by 6.8 percent. This paper finds evidence consistent with the Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) hypothesis that the interaction of credit market imperfections with lower trade costs increases land inequality: a 10 percent increase in market access increases the adoption of increasing returns farming technology by 3.5 percent. There is a positive effect on land sales, but the instrumental variables estimates are imprecise. The robustness of the conclusions is checked by relaxing the exclusion restrictions using the Conley and others (2012) approach, and the bias-adjusted ordinary least squares estimator of Oster (2019) that does not impose any exclusion restrictions. The estimated effects of market access cannot be accounted for by the colonial land revenue system, demographic pressure on land, and differences in inheritance law between the Hindu and Muslim population in a district
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Neri-Laine, Matteo Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms Exports
    Keywords: Competition Policy ; Deep Trade ; Deep Trade Agreements ; Developing Country Trade Agreements ; Export Competitiveness ; Export Performance ; Firms Heterogeneity ; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation ; Imported Inputs ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms' exports. Using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020, the analysis shows that the depth of trade agreements matters for the export performance of firms. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements boosts firms' exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, the trade impact of deep trade agreements depends on firm's characteristics. The impact is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and is negative for small firms. Robustness tests and an Instrumental Variable strategy confirm the causal interpretation of the results. These heterogeneous impacts on firms' exports imply a selection effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Majune, Socrates Trade Policies and Sea and Air Freight: The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Imports and Exports
    Keywords: Air Cargo ; COVID-19 Impact on Exports ; Export Competitiveness ; Imports ; International Economics and Trade ; Lockdown Impact ; Lockdown Policies ; Non-Tariff Measures ; Pandemic International Trade ; Sea Cargo ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Transport
    Abstract: This study analyzes how Indonesia's international trade was affected by its own lockdown policies (domestic) and those of its trading partners (external) in response to COVID-19. The study differentiates between sea freight and air freight, as well as products affected by specific non-tariff measures. Event-study results show that the decline in imports (which were more negatively affected than exports) was mainly attributed to external lockdowns, the impacts of which were more pronounced and persistent for imports entering Indonesia by air (due to restrictions to international travel) and imports subject to port-related non-tariff measures. Domestic lockdowns adversely affected intermediate imports subject to non-tariff measures requiring physical inspection, testing, and approval processes. External lockdowns, which also had a larger impact on exports relative to domestic policies, affected sea and air exports evenly. Demand factors (specifically, workplace closures and stay-at-home orders) in the partner countries were the drivers of the decline in exports. Enhancing trade facilitation to keep goods moving as smoothly as possible, reforming specific non-tariff measures, and improving customs and other procedures would ensure fewer disruptions from shocks in a globally integrated world
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Investment Climate Assessment
    Keywords: Digital Economy ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Governance ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Lifecycle ; Legal Framework
    Abstract: This Investment Policy and Regulatory Review (IPRR) presents information on the legal and regulatory frameworks governing foreign direct investment (FDI) in India. Since legal and regulatory frameworks are constantly evolving, a cut-off date was set for the research. This country review therefore covers information available as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise indicated in the review. This IPRR is organized as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the country's investment policy framework, including the legal instruments regulating foreign investment, key institutions involved in investment promotion, as well as the country's foreign investment promotion strategy; it also delineates the country's international investment legal framework, including the country's commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO) and select international investment agreements (IIAs); Sections 3-6 cover the country's policies and domestic legal framework concerning different dimensions of the lifecycle of an investment: entry and establishment (Section 3), protection (4), incentives (5) and linkages (6); Sections 7-8 explore emerging investment policy and regulatory areas - Section 7 considers outward FDI, Section 8 responsible investment; Section 9 focuses on city-specific investment policy and regulatory measures in the largest commercial center; and Section 10 focuses on FDI in the digital economy
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  • 73
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Investment Climate Assessment
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment ; Governance ; Incentives ; International Economics and Trade ; Legal Framework ; Linkages ; Policies ; Protection
    Abstract: This Investment Policy and Regulatory Review (IPRR) presents information on the legal and regulatory frameworks governing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia. Since legal and regulatory frameworks are constantly evolving, a cut-off date was set for the research. This country review therefore covers information available as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise indicated in the review. This IPRR is organized as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the country's investment policy framework, including the legal instruments regulating foreign investment, key institutions involved in investment promotion, as well as the country's foreign investment promotion strategy; it also delineates the country's international investment legal framework, including the country's commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO) and select international investment agreements (IIAs); Sections 3-6 cover the country's policies and domestic legal framework concerning different dimensions of the lifecycle of an investment: entry and establishment (Section 3), protection (4), incentives (5) and linkages (6); Sections 7-8 explore emerging investment policy and regulatory areas - Section 7 considers outward FDI and Section 8 responsible investment; Section 9 focuses on city-specific investment policy and regulatory measures in the largest commercial center; and Section 10 covers FDI in the digital economy
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (108 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kasyanenko, Sergiy The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Competitiveness ; Demographics ; Developing Economies ; Emerging Markets ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment ; Potential Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Total Factor Productivity
    Abstract: Potential growth slowed in most emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions in the past decade. The steepest slowdown occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), although potential growth in EAP remained one of the two highest among EMDE regions, the other being South Asia (SAR), where potential growth remained broadly unchanged. Projections of the fundamental drivers of growth suggest that, without reforms, potential growth in EMDEs will continue to weaken over the remainder of this decade. The slowdown will be most pronounced in EAP and Europe and Central Asia because of slowing labor force growth and weak investment, and least pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa where the multiple adverse shocks over the past decade are assumed to dissipate going forward. Potential growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA, and SAR is expected to be broadly steady as slowing population growth is offset by strengthening productivity. The projected declines in potential growth are not inevitable. Many EMDEs could lift potential growth by implementing reforms, with policy priorities varying across regions
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (62 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ohnsorge, Franziska Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable
    Keywords: Commodity Market Disrupiton ; COVID-19 Pandemic Trade Recovery ; Developing Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Global Recession ; Impediments To Trade ; International Economics and Trade ; Trade
    Abstract: International trade has been an important engine of output and productivity growth historically. But since the global financial crisis, world trade growth has slowed, reflecting cyclical and structural forces. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have further disrupted commodity markets, global supply chains and the trade that accompanies them. A removal of impediments that raise trade costs could reinvigorate world trade. Trade costs, on average, roughly double the cost of internationally traded goods relative to domestically sold goods. Tariffs amount to only one-twentieth of average trade costs; the bulk are incurred in shipping and logistics, and trade procedures and processes at and behind the border. Despite a decline since 1995, trade costs remain about one-half higher in EMDEs than in advanced economies; about two-fifths of this gap appears to be due to higher shipping and logistics costs and a further two-fifths due to trade policy. A comprehensive reform package to lower trade costs could yield large dividends. It is estimated that among the worst-performing EMDEs, a hypothetical reform package to improve logistics and maritime connectivity to the standards of the best-performing EMDEs would halve trade costs
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Edjigu, Habtamu Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements: Impact of AGOA Suspensions on Exports
    Keywords: Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (ACGOA) ; Agricultural Trade ; Agriculture ; Apparel and Textile Exports ; Export Decline ; Export Uncertainty ; Free Trade Agreement ; International Economics and Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Reciprocity
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post-African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Women in Development and Gender Study
    Keywords: Business Expansion ; Cross-Border Trade ; Gender and Economics ; International Economics and Trade ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade Facilitation ; Women
    Abstract: This report summarizes the main challenges that men- and women-led companies (also referred to as traders or trade firms) and customs brokers face in undertaking cross-border trade of merchandise goods in the Republic of Tajikistan. The report also provides recommendations to address these challenges. Global research has shown that the expansion of international trade is essential for poverty reduction, and it provides better job opportunities and increased returns, particularly for women working in export-oriented sectors. Oftentimes, however, women may face more or different challenges than men that prevent them from fully participating in trade. While globally there is a growing body of research on why women participate less in cross-border trade than men, there is still a lack of data and research that quantifies the exact nature of the trade facilitation challenges that women traders face at the firm level. Generally, trade facilitation measures are assumed to be nondiscriminatory in their design; however, implementing and delivering these measures may not necessarily impact all traders similarly. Studies by the World Bank, for example, found that men and women traders often face different trade facilitation challenges, including in areas such as access to information, usage of electronic payments, submission of electronic documents, pre-declaration of goods, consultations with the government, and participation in trade or industry- specific associations. This study in Tajikistan explored a range of topics, primarily within the scope of the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement (WTO TFA), including experiences with public consultations and enquiry points, clearance and release of goods, formalities connected with import and export and transit procedures, detentions of goods, appeal or review procedures, and publication and availability of information. Areas beyond the WTO TFA, such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, transport, and safety and security issues at the borders, were also researched. Data collection for this report was done via phone survey interviews across Tajikistan and was complemented by qualitative research methods, such as focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and technical visits to select border crossings in the country. The work was built upon a similar methodology developed and used in other surveys by the World Bank Group. The data collected in the study and the resultant analysis contribute to the literature on trade and gender. Importantly, the report helps fill a significant knowledge gap in Tajikistan, where there is no robust country-representative research shedding light on gender-specific challenges faced by cross-border traders. This study adds to the increasingly important dialogue on addressing gender equality issues in trade policies. The study may be useful to the government of Tajikistan, development organizations, and others in ensuring that trade interventions can benefit all traders equally
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  • 78
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Economic Sanctions ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: Kazakhstan's economy is set to experience a moderate growth acceleration, with real GDP forecast to rise by 3.5 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024, propelled by the hydrocarbons sector, as oil production increases. Inflation has surged to its highest level since the late 1990s due in part to wage increases across sectors and crisis-related fiscal measures. Inflation is expected to remain high in 2023 due to elevated food prices and prices of imported intermediate goods. The outlook for growth faces several downside risks. Any further disruptions to the operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium could lead to losses in production volumes and fiscal revenues, posing downside risks to growth. The persistent high domestic inflation is a serious challenge, particularly for the most vulnerable households, and could potentially amplify the risk of social tensions. Additional tightening of global financial conditions due to geopolitical tensions, energy crisis, and high inflation may pressure the exchange rate, leading to potential capital flow volatility
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iimi, Atsushi Agglomeration Economies and Transport Connectivity Revisited: A Regional Perspective based on Evidence from the Caucasus and Central Asian Countries
    Keywords: Dynamic Panel Data Regression ; Firm Agglomeration ; International Economics and Trade ; Local Market Accessibility ; Regional Connectivity ; Rural Development ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Transport ; Transport Connectivity ; Urban Development
    Abstract: Transport connectivity is an important determinant of agglomeration economies and urbanization. However, measuring its impacts is a complex task when causality is considered. An important empirical challenge comes from potential endogeneity of infrastructure placement. To deal with the endogeneity problem, first, the paper constructs detailed georeferenced connectivity measurements based on micro shipping data collected over 10 years. Then, the system generalized method of moments regression is applied. Using unique data from the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, the paper estimates the impact of transport connectivity on agglomeration economies. It finds that agglomeration economies are significant and persistent in the region. Thus, the existing firm clusters are likely to continue growing. However, a constraint is also found. Large cities exhibit congestion diseconomies. Finally, the paper shows that the improvement of transport connectivity, especially local market accessibility, has a significant effect on agglomeration. By contrast, no clear evidence to support the impact of improved regional connectivity on agglomeration is observed yet. To take full advantage of agglomeration economies at the regional level, further efforts may be needed, for instance, toward increasing efficiency in transportation and logistics, improving the freight load, and/or reducing the time and costs of border crossing, which add to overall transport costs and times
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Benefits ; Human Capital ; Integration ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Job Markets ; Labor Markets ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Welfare
    Abstract: The global economic recovery remains fragile, creating choppy seas for the recovering Pacific. While global conditions have gradually improved since the pandemic and spillovers from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, progress on reducing inflation in major economies has proven more challenging than expected. Given that all Pacific countries are net importers, this has resulted in persistently high imported inflation. The speed of monetary policy tightening by major central banks has slowed, but easing is unlikely in the near term. Aggregate demand in major trading partners of the Pacific (particularly Australia and New Zealand) remains lackluster. This could limit demand for travel and tourism services and other income sources such as remittance and commodity exports. Despite uncertainties in the global economic recovery, Pacific economies are expected to see ongoing expansion in 2023 and 2024. Fiji led the Pacific's post-COVID-19 recovery with open borders and a strong rebound in 2022 and is now on track to reach its pre-pandemic output level in 2023. Ongoing recovery expectations in the Pacific are broadly in line with March 2023 World Bank projections except for Tuvalu and Palau, where growth has been revised down given weaker than expected outcomes in construction and tourism. In 2023, Pacific growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent and then moderate to 3.3 percent in 2024 as the initial post-COVID-19 rebound dissipates and the region moves towards its long-term trend growth of 2.6 percent. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains high and depends on whether a soft landing can be achieved among key trading partners as they battle ongoing inflation. Inflation remained stubborn across the Pacific at an average of over 6.7 percent in 2022, a substantial increase from the 1.5 percent average during 2019-2021. This has increased the risk of vulnerable populations falling into poverty. In line with global trends, Pacific inflation is expected to decline to an average of 6.0 percent in 2023 and gradually subside thereafter
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Keywords: Affiliates ; Divestment Drivers ; FDI Retention ; Foreign Direct Investment ; International Economics and Trade ; Investors
    Abstract: Affiliates of foreign multinationals offer potential growth and benefits through years of successful operation and successive expansions, including through job creation, new skills and technologies, and deeper participation in global value chains. In fact, reinvestment has become an increasingly important part of global foreign direct investment flows. This is evidenced by the share of reinvested earnings in global foreign direct investment (FDI) growing from 30 percent in 2005 to more than 40 percent since 2018. The need to address the issue of divestment is made more urgent by extraordinary crises. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, growing geopolitical tension, volatile energy prices, climate change, an acceleration in the emergence of disruptive technologies, resurgent protectionism and related challenges in global value chain integration, the possibility of a global minimum corporate tax, have led to disruptions in business plans of multinationals. The need to address the issue of divestment is urgent, given the extraordinary crises and trends that now present investors and policymakers with extreme economic uncertainty. The aim of this note is to fill that gap and ultimately help host country investment agencies with more timely identification of potential divestment risks. Based on a literature review and the World Bank's operational experience, this note explores the following three questions: (1) what are the drivers of divestment decisions, including the cancellation of expansion plans; (2) are there any early warning signs of divestment likelihood that could be discernible to retention agencies (that is, agencies leading government efforts to better retain investment); and (3) how can retention agencies leverage this knowledge to enable better FDI retention This note aims to serve as a starting point, documenting available literature on the topic. It ultimately aims to support retention agencies in taking more informed steps and decisions to better retain investment
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dalvit, Nicolo Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia: The Role of Export Links and Digital Gains
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Armed Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Digital Divide ; Digitalization ; Employment ; Firm Performance ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics and Trade ; Private Firm Data ; Private Sector Economics ; Sales ; Trade Link with Russia ; Ukraine Invasion
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment-along with other main characteristics-of about 1,200 to 1,800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion-even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bello, Ridwan Bolaji Greener is not Always Pricier: Ecolabeling and Price Premium in the Tourism Industry
    Keywords: Ecolabel ; Environment ; Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation ; Hedonic Pricing Model ; Hotel Industry ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; Sustainable Tourism ; Tourism and Ecotourism ; Tourism Competitiveness
    Abstract: Voluntary ecolabeling programs have gained popularity in the tourism industry as initiatives for promoting ecofriendly practices among tourism firms. Yet, for these programs to appeal to firms, it is crucial that they generate positive market benefits for ecolabeled firms. This paper studies the effect of a sustainable tourism label on prices of hotel firms. It uses hotel listing data collected from Booking.com and covering more than 6,000 hotels across 10 popular European cities. The paper finds that the presence of the ecolabel is associated with a price premium of approximately 10 percent in the full sample. However, point estimates of this premium vary across cities, from a low of 1 percent in Venice to a high of 22 percent in London. As a novel contribution, the paper shows that the ecolabel delivers a quantitatively and statistically significant price premium only in cities where tourism (destination) competitiveness is high and ecolabel attainment is low. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for firms and policymakers in the industry
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cortina, Juan J The Internationalization of China's Equity Markets
    Keywords: Emerging Markets ; Equity Financing ; Equity Issuance Activity ; Equity Market Liberalization ; Firm Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Investors ; International Economics and Trade ; International Investors ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Stock Connect
    Abstract: The internationalization of China's equity markets started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms' shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper documents the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper shows significant increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed firms and connected firms, with sizable aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests that the rise in firms' equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. Foreign ownership of Chinese firms increased once the locally issued shares became part of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index in 2018
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  • 85
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2199
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) ; Central Asia ; Covid-19 ; Ecosystem Transformations ; Education Reform and Management ; Food Safety ; Food Systems Resilience ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; International Economics and Trade ; Livestock ; One Health Approach ; Regional Cooperation
    Abstract: Central Asia has made much progress in public health and animal health in the last 20 years but was as unprepared as other regions in the world to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The region also faces challenges from other emerging diseases, re-emerging diseases, and climate change. Since 2020, the Central Asian regional economies, as the rest of the world, have faced two shocks - the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Animal diseases do not respect borders and remain a public health concern because of the possible transmission of pathogens to humans. They can spread quickly from one country to another, with impact on animal health, trade, food security, food safety and possibly creating public health emergencies. One Health is an approach that allows for addressing human, animal, and ecosystem health issues through intersectoral action, to prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from infectious diseases, with an endpoint of improving global health security and achieving gains in development. The World Bank has been actively engaged in Central Asia for over two decades and is well-placed to act as a convener able to provide regional program-design expertise and implementation support for a One Health program. The findings of this report will support the preparation of the Central Asia One Health Framework for Action by providing recommendations for activities which can be further supported through public spending, private investments, and other financial resources
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Reed, Tristan Cartels, Antitrust Enforcement, and Industry Performance: Evidence from Mexico
    Keywords: Abuse of Dominance ; Access To Markets ; Antitrust ; Antitrust Enforcement ; Cartel ; Collusion ; Competition Law ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Federal Competition Commission ; Federal Economic Competition Commission ; International Economics and Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Monopolistic Practices ; Per Se Illegal ; Rule of Reason
    Abstract: Forty percent of economic activities in Mexico weighed by sales have been investigated for illegal monopolistic practices since the Federal Competition Commission was established in 1993. By exploiting some unique features of the Mexican investigative system, and using a synthetic control approach, this paper examines the causal impact of antitrust sanctions on industry performance and aggregate outcomes. Sanctions cause sales and wages to increase and profit margins to fall in the sanctioned sectors, thus benefiting consumers and workers. Overall, antitrust enforcement contributes roughly half a percent of per capita gross domestic product growth. Outcomes of investigations that are closed without sanction fail to reject the hypothesis that some harmful conduct is not sanctioned because investigators lack resources to prove it conclusively. An implication is that the Commission could generate greater benefits with additional investigative resources
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Credit To Private Sector ; Global Commodity Market Shock ; International Economics and Trade ; Pandemic ; Poverty Reduction ; Promoting Vaccination ; Robust Growth
    Abstract: Kenya's rebound from the pandemic continued in 2022. Driven by broad-based increases in services and industry, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 6.0 percent Year-on-Year (y/y) in the first half (H1) of 2022. However, the agriculture sector contracted by 1.5 percent during thesame period, and with the sector contributing almost one fifth of GDP, its poor performance pulled back GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points. Notwithstanding the strong y/y creases, GDP has seen a marked sequential slowdown since the 2021 third quarter (Q3) as base effect dissipatedand business confidence weakened because of the global commodity market shock, a long regional drought and domestic political uncertainty in the run up to the August 2022 general elections. Business confidence however picked up in the wake of a smooth transition of power following a largely peaceful presidential election. Kenya's growth prospects remain bright; however, emerging shocks are challenging the broad-based rebound. Thebaseline assumes robust growth of credit to private sector, contained COVID-19 infections, and high commodity prices favorable for Kenyan exports to boost Kenya's growth in the medium term. However, the ongoing shocks, including the long drought in arid and semi-arid areas, rising inflation, and tighter global financial conditions, create challenges for Kenya to sustain its recovery
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Economy Growth ; Exports ; Fiscal Revenues ; International Economics and Trade ; Natural Resources ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Over-reliance on natural resources has held back diversification of Gabon's economy, as growth, exports, and fiscal revenues are still largely dependent on extractives. Despite Gabon's abundant natural resources, growth has been slow to reduce poverty. In the context of dual shocks from low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, government authorities committed to fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and economic diversification as part of the Accelerated Transformation Plan (PAT). In addition, at their exceptional summit in August 2021, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state provided a strong political endorsement for structural reforms, with emphasis on improved management of public funds and governance, business environment reforms, and regional integration of human capital. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is framed along the new reforms supported by the CEMAC heads of state to achieve faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth. In this CEM, the green economy is viewed as an opportunity for Gabon to position itself as a champion. Economic transformation is necessary to find a better, sustainable model for job creation: reinforcing labor supply through better skills and job-search training, and creating economic opportunities in a more conducive environment for investment and trade. This CEM aims at supporting policy makers in their reform efforts. Their goal is to help Gabon, a small economy of 2.3 million people, break free from its resource-dependent growth model and create the conditions to move people into jobs in promising green sectors
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ana P., Cusolito Capacity Building as a Route to Export Market Expansion: A Six-Country Experiment in the Western Balkans
    Keywords: Broadcast and Media ; Consulting ; Customer Acquisition ; Digital Presence ; Export Competitiveness ; Export Market Expansion ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics and Trade ; Marketing Training ; Private Sector Development ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) ; Small and Medium Size Enterprises ; Training
    Abstract: The limited market size of many small emerging economies is a key constraint to the growth of innovative small and medium enterprises. Exporting offers a potential solution, but firms may struggle to locate and appeal to foreign buyers. A six-country randomized experiment was conducted with 225 firms in the Western Balkans to test the effectiveness of 30 hours of live group-based training and 5 hours of one-on-one remote consulting in overcoming these constraints. Treated firms used techniques such as search engine optimization and improved Facebook content to increase their digital presence and better reach foreign customers. A year later, positive and significant impacts are found on the number of customers, and a significant intensive margin increase in export sales. Qualitative interviews suggest this improvement came from a combination of sector-specific advice on market expansion, and through an encouragement effect which gave entrepreneurs the confidence to try new sales strategies
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  • 90
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Debt Arrears ; Debt-To-Gdp ; Economic Recovery ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; High Oil Prices ; International Economics and Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Sustainability
    Abstract: Gabon's economic recovery has been intensifying, with oil and other commodities projected to drive GDP growth to 2.7 percent in 2022, up from 1.5 percent in 2021. The fiscal stance improved in 2021 amid contained spending and is expected to turn into a surplus in 2022. While debt-to-GDP remains sustainable amidst gradual economic recovery and high oil prices, debt arrears remain high. The uptick in oil prices compensated for the decline in production and led to a trade surplus in 2021, which is expected to remain high in 2022. Food insecurity could be exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine as Gabon is highly vulnerable to shocks in the agricultural sector. The government has adopted plans to increase agricultural production. Despite the government's efforts to increase agricultural production, Gabon's agricultural trade remains hampered by structural bottlenecks related to weak supporting infrastructure, the high number of intermediaries, and price uncertainty. Informal payments and obstacles for imports into Gabon, including petty harassment, add to already high import duties and can contribute to informality, unpredictability, and delays in border crossing and transport network. Reducing petty harassment would support trade in agriculture, reduce the overall cost of living for the population, and foster economic growth in Gabon
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  • 91
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Fiscal Sustainability ; International Economics and Trade ; PER ; Public Expenditure Review ; Tax Reforms
    Abstract: A Public Expenditure Review (PER) is a diagnostic instrument to analyze public expenditures and revenues, support policy dialogue with government, and inform engagement with other stakeholders. During November 2021 and July 2022, a PER was conducted for Solomon Islands, titled Euro Fiscal reform and the path to debt sustainability'. The PER examines the public finance implications of a large public investment pipeline and declining logging revenues, and identifies the importance of reform for fiscal sustainability and resilient development. On the revenue side, the PER examines pathways in which the government's tax reform agenda and the mining sector can contribute to income generation and economic growth. On the recurrent expenditure side, the PER assesses public sector pay and employment, and identifies options to make spending in health and education more efficient. Finally, the PER investigates the risks and opportunities of the large public investment pipeline and the consequences for (fiscal) sustainability
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  • 92
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Domestic Economic Sectors ; Global Economic Headwinds ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Poor Households ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: While recovering from Coronavirus (COVID-19),Cambodia's economy is now facing global economic headwinds. The current account improved in the first half of 2022 as the trade deficit narrowed. Rising global energy, fertilizer and food prices prompted a surge in inflation. Rising inflation is particularly harmful to poor households. To mitigate impacts of the food and oil price shock, the authorities are planning to introduce additional social assistance measures, while extending the existing COVID19 cash transfer program until end-2022. Promoting the domestic economic sectors, focusing on the travel, tourism, and hospitality industries should help partly offset the deterioration of external demand conditions. And successful facilitation of coherent private sector leadership of the sector should help create a "crowding-in" effect, anchored to comprehensive long-term plans, catalyzed by public seed funding. It is equally important to address supply chain constraints, which include high logistics and transportation costs to boost export
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Constantinescu, Cristina Globally Engaged Firms in the COVID-19 Crisis
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Business Disruption ; Coronavirus ; Covid Impact On Exporters ; COVID-19 ; Export ; Global Value Chains ; Globally Engaged Firms ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic Impact On Firms ; Recovery ; Supply Chain Disruption ; Trade ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the initial impact and recovery of globally engaged firms from the COVID-19 crisis. It uses rich survey data of nearly 65,000 firm-year observations in 45 countries spanning three waves of data collection. The findings are organized in a series of stylized facts, which suggest that although the pandemic had an immediate adverse impact on most firms, the globally engaged ones are recovering faster, possibly due to their higher capabilities. Among globally engaged firms, those directly involved with international markets show better recovery than the ones that were indirectly involved. These results mask wide variation by firm traits, sectoral attributes, and country characteristics. At the core of the recovery of globally engaged firms is their heightened response to the crisis by finding novel ways to adapt supply chains even in the presence of lockdowns and uncertainty. These firms swiftly digitalized, introduced new products and changed their markets and sources of inputs. Over and above their capabilities, global engagement cushions firms against shocks. Policymakers could therefore facilitate global linkages by providing information on potential markets and products, by making production flexible in terms of facilitating remote work, reducing the rigidity of contracts; and incentivizing financial institutions to issue instruments that reduce uncertainty risk
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Joseph, George Beyond Money: Does Migration Experience Transfer Gender Norms? Empirical Evidence from Kerala, India
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Anthropology ; Female Labor Force Participation ; Impact of Brain Drain ; Impact On Poverty Reduction ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Return Migrant
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of return migration from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf on the transfer of gender norms to the Indian state of Kerala. Migration to countries in the Middle East has led to significant remittance flows and economic prosperity, although the effects on social norms and attitudes remain largely unexplored. The paper finds that returning migrants from Saudi Arabia tend to exhibit conservative values regarding gender-based violence and extreme attitudes pertaining to the perpetration of physical violence against women. Compared with those who have no migration experience, the attitudes of returning migrants from Saudi Arabia toward gender-based violence were more conservative by three standard deviations, while the attitudes of those returning from the Gulf were less conservative by 0.5 standard deviation. Similarly, compared with those with no migration experience, returning migrants from Saudi Arabia were more conservative by 2.6 standard deviations regarding extreme attitudes related to gender norms, such as sexual assault, while those returning from the Gulf were less conservative by 0.7 standard deviation. These results show that migration experience can have a substantial impact on the gender attitudes of returning migrants, with potential implications for migration and gender policies in Kerala and for countries that send a large share of temporary migrants overseas for work
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chepeliev, Maksym Pandemic, Climate Mitigation, and Reshoring: Impacts of a Changing Global Economy on Trade, Incomes, and Poverty
    Keywords: Barrier To Import ; Carbon Emission Reduction ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Extreme Weather Event ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Poverty Reduction ; Real Income ; Regional and Global Value Chains
    Abstract: The resilience of global value chains has been put to the test by the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather events, and trade tensions spurred by growing economic nationalism and protectionism. Shocks in production and trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessen the blow of a domestic shock, such as a lockdown, and drive economic recovery. What shocks to global value chains should be anticipated in the coming years Is it possible to design policies that can enhance resilience to trade shocks in developing countries without endangering growth This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computable general equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses it engenders in developing countries. The paper assesses the likely impacts of measures designed to reshore production and reduce reliance on imports. It also evaluates other key factors shaping the global economy, including stylized scenarios to capture the essential elements of policies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade
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  • 96
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ragoussis, Alexandros Global Transition Online
    Keywords: Center For Economic Studies ; Digital Infrastructure ; Emerging Economy ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Information Technology ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Online Payment ; Temporary Shock
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on the growth of digital technology in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses the largest and most comprehensive database available to analyze website birth dynamics and the uptake of website technologies. The database comprises 150 million active websites and 27,000 technologies. The findings show that, over 2020, there was rapid adoption of both e-commerce and online payments across all countries, with greatest rates of adoption in countries that had lower initial levels of technology use. The timing of COVID-19 lockdowns strongly predicts increased use of these technologies, accounting for about a third of the overall increase in e-commerce or online payments usage over 2020. More importantly the shock appears to have resulted in a shift in trend more so than a shift in level, suggesting that COVID-19 may have transformed the trajectory of online market growth
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  • 97
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Farah Yacoub, Juan P The Legal Profile of Russian Eurobonds: Engineered against Speed
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Debt Resolution ; Debtor Protection ; Eurobond Stock Provisions ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics and Trade ; International Law ; Law and Development ; Russian Eurobonds ; Russian Federation Default History ; Sovereign Bonds ; Sovereign Debt ; Sovereign Default ; Treaties
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the Russian Federation's default history, the legal characteristics of the bonds, and potential issues for litigation should a default materialize. The paper's main argument is that although it is not impenetrable, this Eurobond stock is more protective of the debtor than that of the usual emerging market country. It achieves this through preservation of all the defenses available under current law and the presence of broad language in key provisions. For instance, clauses providing for payment in a different currency if "reasons beyond its control" stop the debtor from paying in the denomination currency have drawn attention. The paper analyzes this and other characteristics, providing initial assessments on how the issues could play out. While the bonds' characteristics could slow progress toward obtaining judgments when compared to other sovereign debts, they do not prevent them. Collecting on the judgments would be, as usual, the harder part. Ultimately, litigation over these debts could last a long time; other creditor versus foreign sovereign episodes involving less debtor-friendly instruments have lasted 15 years, and resolution and recovery would be highly contingent on political factors. Finally, the paper provides non-lawyers a general roadmap of debt litigation against foreign sovereigns in the United States and the United Kingdom
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Denny, ElaineK Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees
    Keywords: Affects Of Victimization ; Civic Engagement ; Deportees ; Economic Insecurity ; Extortion ; Governance ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mobilizing Effects Of Economic Hardship ; Motivation To Civic Action ; Political Economy ; Political Participation
    Abstract: How does extortion experienced during the migration journey affect the civic engagement of deported migrants returned to their home country? More broadly, how does extortion affect political participation? Little is known about either the political behavior of returnees or about how coercive economic shocks experienced during migration affect subsequent levels of political participation. More broadly, existing literature on how victimization affects political participation is inconclusive, particularly when combined with existing work on economic insecurity. Studying deported migrants and the quasi-random experience of extortion helps address the endogeneity that often confounds these analyses. This approach isolates the impact of extortion on political action from potentially confounding factors related to local security or corruption. Using a novel dataset concerning Guatemalan migrants returned to Guatemala by the U.S. government, this paper finds that extortion has a direct, positive relationship with multiple forms of civic action, and that, at least in this context, the mobilizing effects of economic hardship outweigh the potentially demobilizing effects of fear of crime
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bossavie, Laurent Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict and Development ; Development Impact Of Migration ; Economic Development ; Economic Impact Of Migration ; Financial Capital ; Human Capital ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; International Affairs ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Refugee Origin Country ; Temporary Migration
    Abstract: Temporary migration is widespread globally. While the literature has traditionally focused on the impacts of permanent migration on destination countries, evidence on the effects of temporary migration on origin countries has grown over the past decade. This paper highlights that the economic development impacts, especially on low- and middle-income origin countries are complex, dynamic, context-specific and multi-channeled. The paper identifies five main pathways: (i) labor supply, (ii) human capital, (iii) financial capital and entrepreneurship, (iv) aggregate welfare and poverty, and (v) institutions and social norms. Several factors shape these pathways and their eventual impacts. These include initial economic conditions at home, the scale and double selectivity of emigration and return migration, and employment and human capital accumulation opportunities experienced by migrants while they are overseas, among others. Meaningful policy interventions to increase the development impacts of temporary migration require proper analysis, which, in turn, depends on high quality data on workers' employment trajectories. This is currently the biggest research challenge to overcome to study the development impacts of temporary migration
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dasgupta, Kunal Trade, Transport, and Territorial Development
    Keywords: Domestic Trade Costs ; Export Competitiveness ; Freight Costs ; Golden Quadrilateral ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Manufacturing Firms ; Shipping Cost ; Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity ; Territorial Development ; Trade Costs ; Trade Facilitation ; Transport
    Abstract: The spatial distribution of economic activity is known to depend on trade costs, both international and domestic. This paper examines the interplay between these external and internal trade costs using a model of trade and production that is tested with the organized manufacturing sector data for India from 1989 to 2009. The analysis establishes that the trade liberalization episode of the early 1990s helped spread manufacturing away from the primary region (districts closest to ports) to the secondary region between 1994 and 2000. Such dispersion of activity away from the primary to the secondary region was driven by high internal trade costs that insulated manufacturers from import competition. This trend reversed post-2000, a period of massive decline in internal trade costs, attributed to the Golden Quadrilateral highway upgrades. During this period, the districts along the highway network in the secondary region gained market access and manufacturing activity, while those off the network lost. Irrespective of the period, or the nature of trade costs, manufacturing activity in the interior region (districts farthest from ports) remained depressed, thereby emphasizing the importance of complementary conditions in driving territorial development
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