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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (717)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • Poverty Reduction  (717)
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  • 1
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    The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Iranian Labor Market
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Labor Force Participation ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: Despite sizable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million jobs were lost in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian women's disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in female labor force participation that had slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10705
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  • 2
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    Assessing the Extent of Monetary Poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic after a Decade of Conflict (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Redaelli, Silvia Assessing the Extent of Monetary Poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic after a Decade of Conflict
    Keywords: Data Deprivation ; Fragility and Conflict ; Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Nowcasting ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Social Development and Poverty
    Abstract: The data for estimating monetary poverty in the Syrian Arab Republic are outdated. In the context of data scarcity, this paper aims to propose a methodological approach to address the knowledge gap regarding welfare in Syria over the past decade. In particular, the analysis provides (i) updated pre-conflict poverty baseline estimates based on grouped data from the 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey; (ii) supporting evidence on the viability of using Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme Demographic and Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene 2022 survey data for the estimation of monetary poverty in 2022; and (iii) supporting theoretical and empirical evidence to identify growth in per capita gross domestic product in current prices deflated by Consumer Price Index as the best metric to project poverty using a nowcasting approach. Based on this analysis, the paper proposes to use 2022 Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme-based poverty estimates to anchor the most recent estimates to the best available evidence, and to interpolate the poverty evolution obtained from back-casting 2022 and nowcasting 2009 poverty estimates over 2009-22 using the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product in current prices, deflated by the Consumer Price Index with a passthrough of 0.7
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10736
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  • 3
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    Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost : Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10738
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  • 4
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    Comparing Internally Displaced Persons with those Left Behind : Evidence from the Central African Republic (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Comparing Internally Displaced Persons with those Left Behind: Evidence from the Central African Republic
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Central African Republic ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Displacement ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Global poverty is increasingly becoming concentrated in conflict-affected settings. Therefore, assessing the welfare of those people displaced by conflict is of growing policy importance. Collecting and analyzing data on displaced people is challenging because sampling them is difficult, standard welfare metrics may not reflect their experiences, and they are highly heterogeneous. Assessing the welfare effects of displacement also hinges on constructing counterfactuals that show how internally displaced persons would have fared had they stayed in place. Displaced people typically come from a nonrandom subset of communities affected by conflict or other shocks, so comparing them with the rest of the population may be misleading. This paper addresses this issue using data from the Central African Republic, which recorded detailed information on displacement histories to isolate the communities from which those living in internally displaced person camps originated. Using these "catchment areas" for internally displaced person camps as a counterfactual suggests that although displaced households have lower monetary consumption and higher monetary poverty than the overall population, they may be no worse off on many key metrics than those left behind in the communities originally affected by conflict. Moreover, those left behind enjoy none of the benefits of being in camps, such as additional access to water and sanitation services. These results underline the importance of tailoring policies and data collection to consider those in communities originally affected by conflict, just as practitioners are doing for displaced populations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10725
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  • 5
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    Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century : Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10713
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  • 6
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    Liberia Country Climate Development Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
    DOI: 10.1596/41241
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  • 7
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    The Growth Elasticity of Poverty : Is Africa Any Different? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wu, Haoyu The Growth Elasticity of Poverty: Is Africa Any Different?
    Keywords: Aggregate Economic Growth ; Global Poverty Reduction ; Gross Domestic Product Per Capita ; Growth Elasticity ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: On current trends, the future of global poverty reduction will be determined by Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet even during Sub-Saharan Africa's period of high economic growth -- roughly corresponding to the first decade and a half of the 2000s -- the extent to which this growth translated into improved living standards for African households was hotly debated. This paper revisits the issue of Sub-Saharan Africa's relatively low growth elasticity of poverty using a sample of 575 successive and comparable growth spells between 1981 and 2021. The findings confirm that, even controlling for initial differences in poverty, income levels, and inequality, Sub-Saharan Africa consistently had a significantly lower growth elasticity of poverty relative to other regions over this period. The lower growth elasticity of poverty, which has remained unchanged over time, is due to a lower passthrough between growth in gross domestic product per capita (or growth in household final consumption expenditure as measured by national accounts) and growth in household consumption expenditures as measured from surveys. Given the low passthrough of economic growth to households, Africa thus needs higher rates of economic growth than its peer countries in other regions to achieve equal rates of poverty reduction. Given the challenge of achieving this in the current global economic environment, success in reducing global poverty will require a focused effort to strengthen the effect of aggregate economic growth on household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest that this will require (i) improved provision of basic education services and basic infrastructure, (ii) faster structural transformation, and (iii) a decrease in the occurrence and persistence of violent conflicts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10690
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  • 8
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    Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? : Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10698
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  • 9
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    Central America Human Capital Review : Promoting More and Better Investments in Human Capital (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Education ; Education For All ; Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Capital ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; UMI Countries
    Abstract: This Human Capital Review aims to provide analytical foundations in the support of policies that improve human capital outcomes for the following four UMI countries in Central America: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. The objective of this report is to identify the key constraints to human capital growth and understand how education and labor market policies can foster a resilient recovery, promote inclusive growth, and contribute to poverty reduction in these countries. The review also estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human capital outcomes using a multi-sectoral approach. The analysis compares human capital outcomes in the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019) against trends during the pandemic (2020-2021). Lastly, the report focuses on these four countries, which are the only UMI in Central America to take advantage of new data collected during the pandemic, which allowed to quantify some of the impacts of COVID-19 and understand some of their long-term implications for human development outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/41181
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  • 10
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    Responsibility Sharing and the Economic Participation of Refugees in Chad (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Coulibaly, Mohamed Responsibility Sharing and the Economic Participation of Refugees in Chad
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Disaster Risk Management ; Environment ; Flood and Drought Risk Management ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Natural Resources Management ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The Global Compact on Refugees recognizes the importance of responsibility sharing for hosting, protecting, and assisting refugees, while emphasizing the potential of economic participation to reduce the cost of humanitarian assistance. This note explores the relative importance of aid in caring for refugees hosted in Chad and the importance of the incomes earned by the refugees. It finds that the combination of aid and self-earned incomes falls far short of a minimum standard of living (the poverty line) as a consequence of which the vast majority of refugees lives in abject poverty. It is also finds that although refugees are hosted in camps with relatively few economic opportunities, self-generated income covers 54 percent of the poverty line and aid only 14 percent. As Chad has adopted a policy of refugee inclusion and dispersion, the note then explores how much these progressive policies might increase the income earning potential of refugees. This is found to be substantial. Economic participation policies are estimated to reduce refugee poverty from 88 to 50 percent (thus increasing the self-sufficiency of refugees dramatically), while increasing the incomes generated by poor refugees by more than 50 percent. The greatest participation benefits will be realized when refugees move to areas with more economic potential
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10727
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  • 11
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    New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa : More Unequal than we Thought (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa: More Unequal than we Thought
    Keywords: Circumstances ; Consumpton Inequality ; Equity and Development ; Inequality ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development
    Abstract: Unequal access to economic opportunity for individuals with different innate characteristics, such as ethnicity or parents' socioeconomic status, is often seen as both morally undesirable and bad for economic growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, or the share of inequality explained by birth characteristics, across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. For many countries, this is the first time inequality of opportunity is measured. The paper uses nationally representative household survey data harmonized to allow for cross-country comparisons. Using consumption per capita as the outcome, the findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated. On average, inherited circumstances explain more than half of inequality in the region. Estimates range from 40 to 60 percent in most countries and reach 74 percent in South Africa. The findings show that birthplace, parents' education, and ethnicity tend to be the most significant contributors, but there is large variation in the importance of circumstances across countries. This represents the most comprehensive estimate of inequality of opportunity to date in the poorest and one of the most unequal regions in the world, and it underscores the pressing need for policy makers to intensify their efforts to address inequality of opportunity to foster societies that are more equitable and unlock the full potential for growth in the region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10723
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  • 12
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    Fiscal Policy, Poverty and Inequality in Jordan : The Role of Taxes and Public Spending (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy, Poverty and Inequality in Jordan: The Role of Taxes and Public Spending
    Keywords: Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Policy and Inequality ; Income Inequality ; Poverty and Social Impact ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: Analysing who benefits from different taxes and spending is important to understand how fiscal policy is affecting poverty and inequality in Jordan. This study traces how the Jordanian fiscal system affects different households, while paying income tax and GST and benefiting from social assistance, and services, such as, cash transfers, electricity and water subsidies, education and health. The study finds that Jordan's current fiscal system is modestly progressive, but more could be achieved. Inequality, as measured by the Gini Index, falls 5.8 points between household market incomes and post-fiscal incomes (after paying income and consumption taxes as well as receiving government transfers and subsidized services). When considering only monetary taxes and benefits (that is, excluding non-cash education and health services), inequality falls by only 2.6 points and poverty would be almost the same as the official poverty rate. Nonetheless, the recent expansion of social assistance programs is making Jordan's fiscal policies more equalizing and there is scope for other reforms which would both close the fiscal gap while further reducing poverty and inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10732
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  • 13
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    How Large Are the Economic Dividends from Closing Gender Employment Gaps in the Middle East and North Africa? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fiuratti, Federico Ivan How Large Are the Economic Dividends from Closing Gender Employment Gaps in the Middle East and North Africa?
    Keywords: Gender ; Gender Employment Gap ; Gender Employment Gap Index ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Neoclassical Growth Models ; Poverty Reduction ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the gains in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa, using three neoclassical growth models. The paper starts with baseline impacts from the Gender Employment Gap Index, which suggests that in the long run, gross domestic product per capita would be around 50 percent higher in the typical economy in the region if gender employment gaps were closed (mean 54 percent, median 49 percent). However, the gains are heterogeneous, ranging from less than 10 percent in Qatar to more than 80 percent in the Republic of Yemen. The paper then explores short-term gains, when capital is fixed (or adjusts slowly), and gains in the medium-term, with sluggish implementation of reforms using the Long Term Growth Model, which roughly halves the gains (and lowers the gains by more than half in resource-rich countries). Finally, the paper incorporates the effects of changes in the skill distribution in a model incorporating capital-skill complementarities in production. Because gender employment gaps in the Middle East and North Africa tend to be larger among the unskilled, closing these gaps reduces average skill levels, moderating long-term gains by 5-10 percentage points. However, if women in the Middle East and North Africa continue the current trend toward greater educational attainment, the gains will be greater than in the baseline. All three models--the Gender Employment Gap Index, the Long Term Growth Model, and capital-skill complementarities--point to large increases in gross domestic product per capita from closing gender employment gaps
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10706
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  • 14
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    Tackling Gender Discriminatory Inheritance Law Privately : Lessons from a Survey Experiment in Tunisia (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hauser, Christina Sarah Tackling Gender Discriminatory Inheritance Law Privately: Lessons from a Survey Experiment in Tunisia
    Keywords: Family Law ; Gender Discrimination ; Gifting ; Inheritance Law ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When reform of gender discriminatory law fails, individual action can offer a second-best solution. As most Muslim-majority countries, Tunisia applies Islamic inheritance law, systematically favoring sons over daughters. By making gifts to their daughter, parents can privately attenuate gender discrimination in inheritance. This study investigates to what extent gifting can represent an alternative to legal reform and for whom. Within a randomized experiment, this study tests whether providing information on public support for inheritance law reform and/or the possibility to make a gift to one's daughter has a causal impact on individual attitudes towards women's right to inheritance. The overall evidence on the effectiveness of the proposed informational treatments to encourage gifting is mixed. However, approval of gifting daughters is high--especially among the wealthy. Men are more likely to gift than women. By contrast, demand for legal reform is significantly higher among women and individuals with low educational attainment. The findings thus suggest that gifting indeed represents an alternative to legal reform; but mostly for a relatively well-off subset of the population, leaving the agency to the traditionally male head of the family
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10693
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  • 15
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    More, Better, and Inclusive Jobs in Kazakhstan : Social Protection and Jobs Europe and Central Asia - Analytical Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
    DOI: 10.1596/41222
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  • 16
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    Little Nomads : Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cortina Toro, Magdalena Little Nomads: Economic and Social Impacts of Migration on Children
    Keywords: Child Migration ; Education Services ; Migration ; Migration Influence on Children ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main findings from 110 studies produced between 1990 and 2023, focusing on the impact of migration on various child groups affected through the migration path, including left-behind, immigrant (including voluntary and forced), and native children. The findings reveal that migration's influence on children's outcomes is complex and context- dependent, and it is dramatically influenced by household demographics and public policies. Key findings include the following: (i) left-behind children benefit from remittances but experience dramatic declines in their cognitive and non-cognitive development due to parental absence; (ii) immigrant children generally fare better than those in their origin countries but still underperform compared to native children in host countries; and (iii) the impacts of migration on native children is largely dependent on the adjustment of public service supply to the increased demand for public services. In cases where education services expand to meet rising demand, the effect on native children can be minimal or even positive. The paper emphasizes the need for more experimental or quasi-experimental research examining the effectiveness of programs supporting migrant and minor host children and calls for longitudinal data collection for better understanding the challenges and needs of migrant children, particularly in developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10686
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  • 17
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    The Costs Come before the Benefits : Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (14 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atamanov, Aziz The Costs Come before the Benefits: Why Donors Should Invest More in Refugee Autonomy in Uganda
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Assistance Need ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Displacement ; Financial Inclusion ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Humanitarian Aid ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Labor Market Inclusion ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugees ; Self-Reliance
    Abstract: When host countries allow refugees to earn income, two main groups benefit: refugees, who become financially autonomous, and international institutions that can reduce the humanitarian aid that would otherwise be needed to support refugees. Uganda is one of the more progressive countries when it comes to promoting the financial independence of refugees and shifting from humanitarian aid to development ways of working. This note considers how successful refugees in Uganda have been in becoming financially independent and estimates how assistance has been saved due to these efforts at economic inclusion. Using the international poverty line of USD 2.15 in 2017 purchasing power parities to proxy the costs of basic needs, the results suggest that the amount of total aid needed was reduced by almost 45 percent. They also show that many refugees live in poverty, implying that the present combination of aid and work is inadequate to assure a decent standard of living. While more assistance is needed in the short run, reductions in development assistance are feasible but require upfront investments in refugee earning capacity to realize them
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10679
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  • 18
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    Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error : Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10675
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  • 19
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    Labor Market Participation and Employment Choice in Ghana : Do Individual Personality Traits and Gender Role Attitudes Matter? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo Labor Market Participation and Employment Choice in Ghana: Do Individual Personality Traits and Gender Role Attitudes Matter?
    Keywords: Education ; Employment Outcome ; Employment Preference ; Gender ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norms ; Gender Role Attitudes ; Informal Sector Measurement Study ; Labor Markets ; Multi-Stage Sampling ; Personality Traits ; Poverty Reduction ; Secondary Education Equity ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: In addition to the conventional determinants of labor market participation and the choice between wage employment and self-employment, there is a growing interest of the significance of gender role attitudes and personality traits. This study uses data from the 2022 Ghana Informal Sector Measurement Study to investigate the influence of these factors on employment outcomes in the Northern and Ashanti regions of Ghana. The findings are based on a series of analyses, including descriptive, multinomial logistic, and linear probability model regressions. The empirical results show the critical role played by both gender role attitudes and personality traits in shaping individuals' decisions on labor market participation and employment choices. Notably, personality traits emerge as significant drivers of observed employment outcomes. However, the impact of these personality traits is often mitigated or even reversed in the presence of heightened traditionalism. Furthermore, the gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that possessing at least a secondary education level is a pivotal factor in the selection of men into formal employment, whereas this criterion holds less significance for women. Conversely, once the decision to participate in the labor market has been made, having at least a secondary education becomes relevant for securing wage employment, regardless of an individual's gender
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10664
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  • 20
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    Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10657
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  • 21
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    Rural Labor and Long Recall Loss (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambler, Kate Rural Labor and Long Recall Loss
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Labor Supply ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Household Survey ; Rural Labor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Surveys frequently rely on annual recall to capture individuals' labor activities over the preceding year. This paper uses a panel of rural households in Malawi for a survey experiment to test the effect of a long, annual recall window on reported labor supply relative to a set of quarterly interviews. The paper documents large losses in reported labor participation using the long recall window with reductions of over 20 percent of reported activities and months worked and a 2.5 times greater incidence of reported unemployment relative to the shorter window. These losses are greater for activities further in the past and especially for individuals whose labor supply is reported by other family members, reaching up to 50 percent for some outcomes. The profile of households' primary respondents, predominantly male and older, and differential effects by age further suggest that long recall may cause meaningful biases in the resulting data for women and younger household members
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10680
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  • 22
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    Exit Patterns from Brazil's Bolsa Familia and the Role of the Local Labor Market (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fietz, Katharina Exit Patterns from Brazil's Bolsa Familia and the Role of the Local Labor Market
    Keywords: Bolsa Familia ; Conditional Cash Transfer ; Dynamic Means-Tested Cash Transfer ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Workers ; Social Protection Program Graduation ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Can rising tides in the labor market lift the poor out of social assistance Although a substantial literature has studied the capacity of safety nets to expand automatically during labor market shocks, less is known about the dynamics of social assistance when labor market conditions improve, and who may benefit from positive changes. This paper studies how rising formal employment at the municipal level affects the likelihood of beneficiary families to exit Bolsa Familia, Brazil's dynamic means-tested cash transfer. The analysis exploits panel data from Brazil's vast social registry, matched with seven years of Bolsa Familia payroll information and formal employment records. The data reveal that the Bolsa Familia program displays significant and heterogeneous dynamism, with beneficiaries with higher levels of education and fewer constraints to labor supply taking fewer years to exit. The analysis then uses fixed-effects estimates, combined with an instrumental variable approach, to identify the effects of exogenous changes in the local labor market on exits. The findings show that the increase in local employment leads to a small, statistically significant rise in the probability of exiting from Bolsa Familia. These effects are concentrated in households with spare labor supply and those with medium levels of education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10676
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  • 23
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    Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment : The Case of the West Bank and Gaza (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10687
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  • 24
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    Missing Evidence : Tracking Academic Data Use around the World (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10673
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  • 25
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    The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cho, Yoonyoung The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Depression and Pandemic ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Mental Health ; Mental Health Crisis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When it comes to mental health, do social protection programs matter more in times of crisis Using panel data from the Philippines around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study compares depression rates among beneficiaries of an existing conditional cash transfer program to those of non-beneficiaries of similar socioeconomic status. Depression rates were almost identical for the two groups in late 2019, but significantly lower for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries by July 2020, after the initiation of strict quarantine measures and a large emergency cash transfer program. One interpretation of the increased importance of the conditional cash transfer program during the pandemic is that these transfers have larger protective effects in times of vulnerability. Another possible reason is that the existing infrastructure of the program, by allowing for more timely distribution of the emergency cash, enhanced the effectiveness of the government's pandemic response for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries. This paper finds evidence supporting both explanations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10669
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  • 26
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    Fiscal Incidence on the Island : Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10678
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  • 27
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    Female Headship and Poverty in the Arab Region : Analysis of Trends and Dynamics Based on a New Typology (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (97 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als AlAzzawi, Shireen Female Headship and Poverty in the Arab Region: Analysis of Trends and Dynamics Based on a New Typology
    Keywords: Female-Headed Households (FHH) ; Female-Headedness Typology ; Gender ; Household Survey Data ; Poverty Dynamics ; Poverty Feminization ; Poverty Reduction ; Synthetic Panels
    Abstract: Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have had mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyzes synthetic panels constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, the West Bank and Gaza, and Tunisia. The paper finds that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non--FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are the most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across measures of FHHs. The findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10672
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  • 28
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    The Distributional Impact of Inflation in South Asia : An Empirical Approach (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dovonou, Vanessa Olakemi The Distributional Impact of Inflation in South Asia: An Empirical Approach
    Keywords: Distributional Effect ; Distributional Impact ; Food Inflation ; Food Inflation and Inequality ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical estimation of the distributional impact of inflation on households in South Asia. Two main channels are explored-the consumption basket channel and the income channel-for households in different income deciles in selected countries in South Asia. Using recent household expenditure surveys, the paper constructs detailed consumption expenditure shares and the effective "cost-of-living" inflation for households of different income levels. The analysis finds that due to a substantially larger share of food expenditure, households in lower income deciles experience higher effective inflation when food prices are high, despite a diversification in consumption expenditure over time. The analysis also suggests heterogeneous effects of inflation through the household income channel
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10527
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  • 29
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    Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2023 : Migration Amid a Challenging Economic Context (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Drought ; Economic Recovery ; Emigration ; Inflation ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Migration will likely become increasingly important for Tunisia in terms of both inflows and outflows, given the demographic transition in both Tunisia and Europe. As such Tunisia can work (also with partner countries) to maximize the benefits of migration. As a country of mainly emigration, Tunisia could help strengthen the match of its emigrants with the demand abroad, including through enhanced cooperation with destination countries. Such cooperation should include focusing international assistance towards development objectives in Tunisia. Based on available evidence, increasing household incomes will contribute to reducing the propensity to consider emigrating through irregular channels. As its importance as a destination country (hence migrants who want to settle in Tunisia) is likely to increase, Tunisia can also enhance the economic benefits from immigrants by facilitating migrants' regular status and streamlining the recognition of their qualifications, which has been identified as one of the key aspects for the successful implementation of bilateral mobility agreements involving skill partnerships
    DOI: 10.1596/40676
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  • 30
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    Quality and Inequality in Pre-Primary and Home Environment Inputs to Early Childhood Development in Egypt (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Krafft, Caroline Quality and Inequality in Pre-Primary and Home Environment Inputs to Early Childhood Development in Egypt
    Keywords: Children and Youth ; Early Childhood Development ; Education ; Education Quality ; Home Environment ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Pre-Primary ; Pre-Primary Child Development Investment ; Primary Education Investment ; School Readiness Indicators ; Social Development ; Socioeconomic Inquality
    Abstract: By the time children in low- and middle-income countries start primary school, large socioeconomic disparities are evident in children's learning and development. Both pre-primary and home environments can play important roles in influencing school readiness and can contribute to disparities in early childhood development, but there is limited evidence on their relative roles in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines how pre-primary quality, stimulation at home, and early childhood development vary by socioeconomic status for pre-primary students in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The results demonstrate substantial socioeconomic inequality in stimulation at home, more so than in pre-primary quality and inputs, although there is variation in the degree of inequality across different dimensions of pre-primary quality. "Double inequality" is observed, where students with less stimulating home environments experience slightly lower quality pre-primary inputs. There are particularly large pre-primary inequities in structural quality (physical environment) and less inequity in process quality (pedagogy). These results suggest that targeted investments in pre-primary education in Egypt are necessary to reduce inequality in school readiness but are likely insufficient to close the socioeconomic status gap in children's development. Investing in interventions to improve vulnerable children's home learning environments, as well as investing in quality pre-primary, is critical to address disparities in children's development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10317
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  • 31
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    Cash and Conflict : Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Premand, Patrick Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger
    Keywords: Boko Haram ; Cash Transfer Effectiveness ; Cash Transfers and Conflict ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Financial Terrorism ; International Terrorism and Counterterrorism ; Poverty Reduction ; Sabatoge of Government Programs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Terrorism
    Abstract: Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households' welfare and productivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The expansion of government programs may further attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. To investigate the net effect across these forces, this paper studies the impact of cash transfers on conflict in Niger. The analysis relies on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program among nearly 4,000 villages over seven years, combined with geo-referenced conflict events that draw on media and nongovernmental organization reports from a wide variety of international and domestic sources. The findings show that cash transfers did not result in greater pacification but-if anything-triggered a short-term increase in conflict events, which were to a large extent driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups (such as Boko Haram) that could have incentives to "sabotage" successful government programs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10293
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  • 32
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    Least Protected, Most Affected : Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Urbina, Maria Jose Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience
    Keywords: Amnesties ; COVID 19 Impact ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Forced Migration ; Health Policy and Management ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugee Pandemic Outcomes ; Refugee Resilience ; Regularization of Migrants
    Abstract: How can regularization programs improve forced migrants' resilience to shocks This paper leverages panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more resilient and less affected by the pandemic than similar but non-eligible forced migrants. The results indicate that access to the program promoted better health access for eligible migrants, facilitating adherence to prevention guidelines and increasing detection rates. Additionally, eligible migrants had better housing and labor conditions, relative to non-eligible migrants
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10291
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  • 33
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    Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? : Evidence from India (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Berg, Claudia Does Market Integration Increase Rural Land Inequality? Evidence from India
    Keywords: Colonial Railroad ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Credit Market Imperfections ; Farming Technology ; Golden Quadrilateral ; Gravity Measures ; Increasing Returns ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Land Administration ; Land Inequality ; Landlessness ; Market Integration ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Rural Roads and Transport ; Transport Infrastructure
    Abstract: Investments in transport infrastructure lower trade costs and lead to integration of villages with urban markets. Does spatial market integration increase land inequality in rural areas Theoretical analysis by Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) suggests that the interactions of lower trade costs with credit market imperfections can increase land inequality. The primary mechanism is the adoption of increasing returns technology by large landowners facing lower trade costs which makes it more profitable to expand their scale by buying land from small, credit-constrained farmers. Using high- quality household survey data (the India Human Development Survey) on land ownership in rural districts of India, this paper provides the first evidence on the effects of market integration on land ownership inequality. It develops an instrumental variables approach exploiting two sources of exogenous variation: the location of a rural district relative to the Golden Quadrilateral network (an inconsequential place design) and the length of colonial railroad in the 1880s in a district (a historical infrastructure design). This paper discusses and deals with potential objections to the exclusion restrictions. The evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in a gravity measure of market access increases the land Gini coefficient by 2.5 percent and the share of landless households by 6.8 percent. This paper finds evidence consistent with the Braverman and Stiglitz (1989) hypothesis that the interaction of credit market imperfections with lower trade costs increases land inequality: a 10 percent increase in market access increases the adoption of increasing returns farming technology by 3.5 percent. There is a positive effect on land sales, but the instrumental variables estimates are imprecise. The robustness of the conclusions is checked by relaxing the exclusion restrictions using the Conley and others (2012) approach, and the bias-adjusted ordinary least squares estimator of Oster (2019) that does not impose any exclusion restrictions. The estimated effects of market access cannot be accounted for by the colonial land revenue system, demographic pressure on land, and differences in inheritance law between the Hindu and Muslim population in a district
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10286
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  • 34
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    Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kochhar, Nishtha Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change and Health ; Drought ; Food Consumption ; Food Insecurity ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Natural Disaster ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Social Development ; Social Protection and Climate Change
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the 2018 drought on household consumption and poverty in Afghanistan, a semi-arid and conflict-affected country. The paper combines geolocated household data with remote-sensing weather data on precipitation, vegetation, and temperature. The findings show that drought-like conditions decreased monthly per capita consumption expenditures and hence increased poverty, with a highly nonlinear relationship between consumption and weather shocks. When forced to cut back, households reduced nonfood consumption to maintain their food consumption; only under severe stress did they reduce food consumption. Households that owned agricultural land were more resilient to the 2018 drought. Based on the historical distribution of weather shocks, estimates of vulnerability to poverty suggest that 62.5 percent of people have a one in four probability of falling into poverty due to weather shocks. Given that climate change will exacerbate the frequency and severity of future droughts, these findings highlight the importance of investments in resilience and shock-responsive social protection to supplement urgent humanitarian assistance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10272
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  • 35
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    Poverty Mapping in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Fay-Herriot Model ; Geographic Approach ; Municipality Level ; Poverty Mapping ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Spatial Representation
    Abstract: Poverty mapping, the spatial representation and analysis of human wellbeing and poverty indicators is becoming an increasingly important instrument for investigating and discussing socioeconomic issues, informing targeting efforts, and guiding the geographic allocation of resources. One approach to addressing poverty is the geographic approach. In the geographic approach, poor people are identified and targeted through poverty maps. Indeed, the geographical approach is one of the methods used worldwide for targeting anti-poverty programs to reduce the gaps in social protection coverage of poor and vulnerable groups, and it has been widely implemented in several countries around the world. In 2020, the Salvador's General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses (DIGESTYC) and the World Bank started working on the project 'Poverty mapping in El Salvadora'. The project is part of the government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Programme, which is performed by experts of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and the World Bank (WB). The main objective is to calculate the shares of households living in moderate and extreme poverty at disaggregated territorial levels (municipalities). Poverty mapping enhances our understanding of the geographic distribution of people living in poverty. This report presents poverty maps at the municipality level based on the Fay-Herriot model for small-area estimations
    DOI: 10.1596/39424
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  • 36
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    Welfare and Climate Risks in Coastal Bangladesh : The Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Multidimensional Poverty and the Wider Benefits of Climate Adaptation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Verschuur, Jasper Welfare and Climate Risks in Coastal Bangladesh: The Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Multidimensional Poverty and the Wider Benefits of Climate Adaptation
    Keywords: Adaptation Co-Benefits ; Climate Change ; Coastal Risk ; Cyclone Hazard Data ; Environmental Risk ; Household Survey ; Multidimensional Poverty Index ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Welfare Implications
    Abstract: It is widely recognized that climate hazards impact the poor disproportionately. However, quantifying these disproportionate hazard impacts on a large scale is difficult given limited information on households' location and socioeconomic characteristics, and incomplete quantitative frameworks to assess welfare impacts on households. This paper constructs a household-level multidimensional poverty index using a synthetic household dataset of 43 million people residing in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. Households are spatially linked to the critical infrastructure networks they depend on, including housing; water, sanitation, and hygiene; electricity; education; and health services. Combined with detailed cyclone hazard data, the paper first quantifies risks to households, agriculture, and infrastructure. It then presents a novel framework for translating critical infrastructure impacts into the temporary incidence of service deprivations, which can contribute to temporary deprivations and hence multidimensional poverty. The paper uses this framework to evaluate the benefits of various adaptation options. The findings show that asset risk due to flooding is USD 483 million per year at present, increasing to USD 750 million per year in 2050 under climate change. Households face an average infrastructure service disruption of two days per year, which is expected to increase to 4.6 days per year in 2050. This, in turn, would incur a temporary increase in multidimensional poverty (7.2 percent of people are multidimensionally poor at the baseline) of up to 94 percent (2.9 million people) 30 days after an extreme cyclone event (a 1-in-100 years event) at present and 153.9 percent (4.8 million people) in the future. The paper quantifies the large welfare benefits of upgrading embankments, showing how apart from significant risk reduction, these interventions reduce service disruptions by up to 70 percent in some areas and can help up to 1.6 million (0.23 million under current and proposed programs) people from experiencing some form of temporary poverty. Overall, the paper identifies poor households exposed to climate impacts, as well as those prone to falling into poverty temporarily, both ofcould help to mainstream equity considerations in new adaptation programs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10373
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  • 37
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    Improving Estimates of Mean Welfare and Uncertainty in Developing Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Merfeld, Joshua D Improving Estimates of Mean Welfare and Uncertainty in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Development Policy ; Geospacial Data ; Household Census Data ; Machine Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Prediction of Poverty ; Prediction of Wealth ; Welfare
    Abstract: Reliable estimates of economic welfare for small areas are valuable inputs into the design and evaluation of development policies. This paper compares the accuracy of point estimates and confidence intervals for small area estimates of wealth and poverty derived from four different prediction methods: linear mixed models, Cubist regression, extreme gradient boosting, and boosted regression forests. The evaluation draws samples from unit-level household census data from four developing countries, combines them with publicly and globally available geospatial indicators to generate small area estimates, and evaluates these estimates against aggregates calculated using the full census. Predictions of wealth are evaluated in four countries and poverty in one. All three machine learning methods outperform the traditional linear mixed model, with extreme gradient boosting and boosted regression forests generally outperforming the other alternatives. The proposed residual bootstrap procedure reliably estimates confidence intervals for the machine learning estimators, with estimated coverage rates across simulations falling between 94 and 97 percent. These results demonstrate that predictions obtained using tree-based gradient boosting with a random effect block bootstrap generate more accurate point and uncertainty estimates than prevailing methods for generating small area welfare estimates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10348
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  • 38
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    Jobs, Food and Greening : Exploring Implications of the Green Transition for Jobs in the Agri-food System (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Agri-Food Jobs ; Agricultural Pollution ; Agriculture Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Industry ; Food Industry Pollution ; Green Issues ; Green Transition Jobs ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Industry ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Youth Employment
    Abstract: The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R and D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R and D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture's current USD 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point
    DOI: 10.1596/39819
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  • 39
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    A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty, and Inequality (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kraay, Aart A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty, and Inequality
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Inequality Index ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Index ; Poverty Informatics ; Poverty Reduction ; Shared Prosperity ; Welfare Index
    Abstract: Simple welfare indices such as mean income are ubiquitous but not distribution sensitive. In contrast, existing distribution sensitive welfare indices are rarely used, often because they are difficult to explain and/or lack intuitive units. This paper proposes a simple new distribution sensitive welfare index with intuitive units: the average factor by which individual incomes must be multiplied to attain a given reference level of income. This new index is subgroup decomposable with population weights and satisfies the three main definitions of distribution sensitivity in the literature. Variants on this index can be used as distribution sensitive poverty measures and as inequality measures, with the same simple intuitive units. The properties of the new index are illustrated using the global distribution of income across individuals between 1990 and 2019, as well as with selected country comparisons. Finally, the index can be used to define the "prosperity gap" as a proposed new measure of "shared prosperity," one of the twin goals of the World Bank
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10470
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  • 40
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    A Meta-Theory for Absolute Poverty Lines (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit A Meta-Theory for Absolute Poverty Lines
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Global Poverty ; Heterogeneous Preferences ; Poverty and Development Research ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Absolute poverty lines aim to track a fixed poverty standard consistently. There are two main approaches for the construction of absolute poverty lines. The "welfaristic" approach tracks a fixed level of utility, and the "objective" approach tracks a fixed list of achievements. As they yield different poverty comparisons, longstanding debates between their respective proponents take place both at global and national levels. However, these debates only provide informal arguments about their respective theoretical validity. This paper proposes a meta-theory for the consistency properties of absolute poverty lines under heterogeneous prices and heterogeneous preferences. The results identify the sets of consistency properties that fully characterize the poverty lines underpinned by these approaches. Which approach has better consistency properties depends on two aspects of the application for which poverty is monitored
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10519
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  • 41
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    Togo Jobs Diagnostic : Confronting Challenges and Creating Opportunities for More Good Quality Jobs for All (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Agricultural Sector ; Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender Disparities ; Inequality ; Informal Workers ; Jobs Diagnostic ; Labor Disparities ; Labor Markets ; Labor Standards ; Labor Supply ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Good quality jobs are key to accelerating poverty reduction and enhancing social cohesion in Togo. Following a decade of significant progress in reducing poverty, the COVID-19 pandemic and of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are likely to have reversed some of these gains in living standards, however. The creation of more good quality jobs plays a key role in any country's poverty reduction efforts, and will be essential to recover from recent shocks and reinforce earlier gains made in Togo. International research also points to lack of economic opportunities and insufficient social services as key drivers of radicalization of young people. Security threats in the northern region of the country have been growing, with terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso close to the Togolese border increasing in number and severity since 2018, and a first attack reported on Togolese territory in November 2021 in the Savanes region. Access to good quality jobs with a stable income for young Togolese will thus also be part of the solution to the security threats
    DOI: 10.1596/40150
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  • 42
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    Mozambique Poverty Assessment, June 2023 : Poverty Reduction Setback in Times of Compounding Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Equity ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Areas
    Abstract: This report relies on several data sources. The main source providing the poverty, inequality and labor figures herein is the 2019/20 Household Budget Survey (Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar, IOF2019/2020) conducted by the National Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, INE) starting in November 2019 and spanning 13 months. The survey's sample was drawn from the 2017 Census and allows for poverty figures to be representative at national and provincial as well as rural and urban levels. The fieldwork included data collection from 13,297 households interviewed across four quarters as in previous surveys, to account for seasonality effects like the impact on households' consumption of relatively more abundant post-harvest periods. The starting point for the analysis is chapter 1, which synthesizes progress in reducing poverty between 2014-15 and 2019-20. This chapter also looks at the regional distribution of poverty, the impact of the pandemic, multidimensional poverty, the profile of the poor, changes in the responsiveness of poverty to growth, discusses trends in non-monetary dimensions of wellbeing, and simulates future poverty trends. Chapter 2 examines the distribution of growth and inequality reduction over the period, the pandemic's impact, discusses the growth-poverty-inequality relationship, assesses the spatial dimensions of poverty, and estimates the Human Opportunity Index for Mozambique. Chapter 3 focuses on labor markets and provides insights into labor force participation, unemployment, underemployment, employment sectors, child labor, and labor market demand conditions. Chapter 4 presents a fiscal incidence analysis and information on transfers. Chapter 5 examines the relevance of environmental shocks, assesses the impact of weather events on agricultural production and night-time light radiance in urban areas. It also models poverty and distributional impacts of climate change shocks and presents findings on climate change literacy in Mozambique. Finally, chapter 6 discusses a variety of policy implications
    DOI: 10.1596/40106
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  • 43
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    Identifying Skills Needs in Vietnam : The Survey of Detailed Skills (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Granata, Julia Identifying Skills Needs in Vietnam: The Survey of Detailed Skills
    Keywords: Digital Skills ; Employment ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; O*net ; Poverty Reduction ; Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) ; Remote Work ; Routine Skills ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Skills Toward Employability and Productivity (STEP) ; Social Protections and Labor ; Socioemotional Skills
    Abstract: This paper describes a new survey designed to collect comprehensive and granular information about required skills and tasks for detailed occupations in Vietnam. The Survey of Detailed Skills asks workers in Vietnam about their skills and tasks for a set of 30 occupations that are in demand or of strategic importance for economic growth. In doing so, the survey generates practical, detailed information at the occupation level that policy makers and practitioners can use to inform their efforts to build skills in Vietnam. The Survey of Detailed Skills makes several contributions. Most existing efforts to profile occupational skills and tasks in developing countries draw on data from other countries, most frequently the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) in the United States. However, recent research has shown that translating these data across countries via occupational crosswalks yields inaccurate results. The Survey of Detailed Skills is among the first surveys to collect detailed O*NET-type information at the detailed occupational level in a developing country setting. The collection of information about detailed skills means that these skills can be flexibly grouped into different categories (for example, socioemotional skills, digital skills, routine skills, and interpersonal skills) as needed. The use of a consistent scale anchored to the time spent using or performing a skill or task creates clarity for respondents while also yielding a measure of skill and task importance that is easily interpreted. The Survey of Detailed Skills requires outlays on administering the survey, and inclusion of all occupations in Vietnam with regular updating would require ongoing investment
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10565
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  • 44
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    Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo-Abril, Monica Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity Model ; Conditional Cash Transfers ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes fiscal incidence in El Salvador through a gender lens using the Commitment to Equity model. The study aims to identify fiscal policies that promote gender equality and facilitates evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at reducing gender disparities and promoting more inclusive fiscal policies. The analysis shows that fiscal policy is not pro-poor, as it can lead to a 3.1 percentage point increase in overall poverty using the USD 6.85 2017 purchasing power parity poverty line, disproportionately impacting particular groups. Households headed by single women with at least one child under six years old experience a poverty rate increase of 4.3 percentage points, reaching an alarming rate of 42.7 percent. An increasing gender gap in poverty rates is also observed among households where women are the sole providers. The results show that the net fiscal system can increase the incidence of poverty among this group by 4.3 percentage points. In comparison, it increases by only 2.3 percentage points among their male counterparts. A microsimulation exercise of potential fiscal reforms to improve the welfare position of these households reveals that a fiscal package eliminating indirect subsidies, social security exemptions for vulnerable groups, and conditional cash transfers to households that meet certain conditions could reverse these unfavorable outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10547
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  • 45
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    Implications of Using Nonstandard Poverty Lines : An Illustration using the Case of the Arab Republic of Egypt (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit Implications of Using Nonstandard Poverty Lines: An Illustration using the Case of the Arab Republic of Egypt
    Keywords: Absolute Poverty ; Equity and Development ; Equivalence Scale ; Gender and Poverty ; Identification of Poor Households ; Implicit Genderi Bias ; Poverty Methodology ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Trend
    Abstract: Many developing countries' official poverty methodologies rely on nonstandard poverty lines, which complicate poverty comparisons across space or time. The paper considers the case of the Arab Republic of Egypt, whose official poverty lines have two important nonstandard features. First, the line is neither absolute nor relative, but rather hybrid or "weakly relative" Second, the poverty line's implicit equivalence scales are not fixed, but are rather endogenous. This paper provides a conceptual and quantitative understanding of these two nonstandard features. The results reveal that the equivalence scale implicit in the official methodology is quantitatively very similar to the (simpler) per capita equivalence scale. Switching to a per capita equivalence scale would help address an implicit gender bias that the paper identifies in Egypt's official poverty lines. The analysis shows that the official distribution of poverty across regions is very similar to that associated with a purely absolute line. In addition, the change in official poverty rates over the period analyzed (2015 to 2017/18) lies halfway between the larger increase captured by a purely absolute line (10 percentage points) and that captured by a purely relative measure (1 percentage point). However, the results show that these more standard poverty lines do not systematically perform better than the official methodology with respect to the identification of disadvantaged households
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10437
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  • 46
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    The World Bank Group's 2018 Capital Increase Package - An Independent Validation of Implementation and Results (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: 2018 Capital Increase Results ; Accountability ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Final Report Commitment ; Governance ; Independent Evaluation ; International Governmental Organizations ; International Organizations ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Transparency ; World Bank Results
    Abstract: This report presents the Independent Evaluation Group's validation of the World Bank Group's 2018 capital increase package (CIP). It assesses the World Bank Group's progress in implementing the CIP's policy measures and achieving its targets, as well as the quality of management's CIP reporting. The 2018 CIP boosted the Bank Group's financial firepower with a USD 7.5 billion paid-in capital increase for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), USD 5.5 billion paid-in capital increase for the International Finance Corporation (IFC), USD 52.6 billion callable capital increase for IBRD, and internal savings measures. The CIP also included a policy package that committed Bank Group management to policy actions linked to the Bank Group's 2016 Forward Look strategy. The CIP committed to reporting annually on its implementation and an independent assessment after five years. This report fulfills the commitment to an independent assessment. This validation builds on management's own reporting and other complementary evidence to assess the World Bank Group's progress in implementing the CIP's policy measures and achieving its targets. The report also assesses the quality of management's CIP reporting. The report points to lessons on developing, implementing, and reporting corporate initiatives and commitments, such as the importance of having clear strategies or action plans, explicit buy-in from senior management, and accurate reporting with meaningful indicators and realistic targets
    DOI: 10.1596/40287
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  • 47
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    Uzbekistan Country Climate and Development Report (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Decarbonization ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Inclusive Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net Zero Emissions ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Resilience
    Abstract: This report explores how climate action, in line with Uzbekistan's goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2060, interacts with the country's growth and development path. It further suggests priority actions to reduce carbon emissions and build resilience while supporting inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction
    DOI: 10.1596/40608
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  • 48
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    Assessing the Efficiency and Fairness of the Fit for 55 Package toward Net Zero Emissions under Different Revenue Recycling Schemes for Italy (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (20 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Orecchia, Carlo Assessing the Efficiency and Fairness of the Fit for 55 Package toward Net Zero Emissions under Different Revenue Recycling Schemes for Italy
    Keywords: Achieving Environmental Sustainability Goals ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Carbon Pricing Impact ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; European Green Deal ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Revenue Recycling ; Tax System Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: One of Italy's key objectives is to reform and modernize the tax system to increase tax efficiency and improve environmental sustainability and regional economic outcomes, in line with the European Union strategy. Within the framework of the European Green Deal, Italy is committed to contributing to the goal of becoming the first climate neutral region by 2050 (the "Fit for 55" package). As an intermediate step toward the 2050 target, the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Carbon pricing is at the core of the proposal, but its full implementation is also expected to have regressive effects, harming poorer households, and adverse economic impacts, reducing firms' competitiveness. This paper evaluates the effects of the carbon pricing proposal of the "Fit for 55" package on welfare, sectoral production, and income distribution. To tackle the adverse social and economic effects, it compares different revenue recycling schemes shifting the tax burden from major direct and indirect taxes to carbon emissions. It finds that well-targeted revenue recycling policies might significantly reduce the negative effects. The analysis adopts the Italian Regional and Environmental Computable General Equilibrium of the Department of Finance model, which is a new (recursive) dynamic computable general equilibrium model developed by the Italian Ministry of the Economy with technical assistance from the World Bank. It has a detailed energy specification that allows for capital/labor/energy substitution in production, intra-fuel energy substitution across all demand agents, a multi-output and multi-input production structure, an extended energy system with 11 different types of technologies, multiple households to address distributional impacts, and detailed information on the Italian tax system
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10592
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  • 49
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    Air Pollution Reduces Economic Activity : Evidence from India (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Behrer, A. Patrick Air Pollution Reduces Economic Activity: Evidence from India
    Keywords: Air Pollution ; Air Quality and Clean Air ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Health ; GDP Decline ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Particulate Pollution ; Poverty Reduction ; Sustainable Development
    Abstract: Exposure to fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) increases mortality and morbidity and reduces human capital formation and worker productivity. As a consequence, high levels of particulate pollution may adversely affect economic activity. Using a novel dataset of changes in the annual gross domestic product of Indian districts, this paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of ambient PM2.5 on district-level gross domestic product. Using daily temperature inversions as an instrument for pollution exposure, this paper finds that higher levels of particulate pollution reduce gross domestic product. The effect is non-trivial-the median annual increase in the level of PM2.5 reduces year-to-year changes in gross domestic product by 0.56 percentage points
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10515
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  • 50
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    Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Wealth using Geospatial Data : What have we Learned so Far? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Newhouse, David Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Wealth using Geospatial Data: What have we Learned so Far?
    Keywords: Cell Phone Data ; Convolutional Neural Networks ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Geospacial Data ; Living Standards ; Poverty and Wealth Data Prediction ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Mapping ; Poverty Reduction ; Satellite Data ; Small Area Estimation
    Abstract: This paper offers a nontechnical review of selected applications that combine survey and geospatial data to generate small area estimates of wealth or poverty. Publicly available data from satellites and phones predicts poverty and wealth accurately across space, when evaluated against census data, and their use in model-based estimates improve the accuracy and efficiency of direct survey estimates. Although the evidence is scant, models based on interpretable features appear to predict at least as well as estimates derived from Convolutional Neural Networks. Estimates for sampled areas are significantly more accurate than those for non-sampled areas due to informative sampling. In general, estimates benefit from using geospatial data at the most disaggregated level possible. Tree-based machine learning methods appear to generate more accurate estimates than linear mixed models. Small area estimates using geospatial data can improve the design of social assistance programs, particularly when the existing targeting system is poorly designed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10512
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    Pathways to Climate-Resilient Economic Inclusion : A Framework for Integrating Climate Action in Economic Inclusion Programs (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 37151
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate-Resilient ; Economic Inclusion ; Environment ; Labor Markets ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Economics
    Abstract: Climate change disproportionately impacts people living in poverty, threatening to plunge more than 130 million more people into extreme poverty by the end of this decade. In response, governments seek to align poverty alleviation efforts with climate adaptation and mitigation objectives, and are focusing on poor and vulnerable populations, particularly women. Economic inclusion (EI) approaches (a bundle of multidimensional interventions that support poor individuals, households, and communities to increase incomes and assets) can play an important role in addressing the challenges at the intersection of climate resilience and poverty reduction. This publication explores the links between climate change and economic inclusion and proposes pathways through which EI programs can more strategically support climate resilience. It presents a framework for Climate-Resilient Economic Inclusion that can help inform the design of both existing and new EI programs and provides practical examples of how EI programs align their design and operations with the framework
    DOI: 10.1596/40542
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    Background Note on Bringing Climate Change into Vulnerability Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 39458
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Environment ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Vulnerability Analysis ; Water Resources Institutions and Participations ; Weather Shocks ; Weather Vulnerability ; Welfare Impact
    Abstract: Weather vulnerability is often assessed using historical data, but this can be very misleading in a world of changing climate. Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, while climate is the weather averaged over a long period. With climate change, some places are becoming wetter, some drier, and extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones, are becoming more likely. Hence, the nature of weather risks will vary considerably. Despite the magnitude of this shift, there is currently no widely accepted method for bringing climate change into catastrophe risk modeling. The objective of this note is to review, compare, and contrast the different techniques used in this literature to include climate change into vulnerability analysis. To do so, it summarizes recent research papers exploring how to bring climate change into catastrophe risk modeling. The note builds on this review to propose and explain a robust methodology and highlight its potential caveats. As such, this note is a first step towards unifying approaches and disseminating the analysis of climate change in vulnerability analysis. The method proposed in this note can be applied by researchers, economists, and public policy practitioners to study a wide range of topics, from the impact of climate change on diseases to stress-testing social protection programs
    DOI: 10.1596/40533
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    Middle East and North Africa Macro Poverty Outlook : Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, Annual Meetings 2023 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Debt Indicators ; Education ; Environment ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; GHG ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health Insurance ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Indicators ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
    DOI: 10.1596/40475
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  • 54
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    Togo : Economic Inclusion of Youth and Women into High Potential Value Chains (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Agricultural Producer Organizations ; Agriculture ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Rural Development ; Ginger Farming Value Chain ; Informality ; Labor Markets ; Poverty Reduction ; Shea Butter Production Value Chain ; Smallholder Farmers ; Women in Agriculture Value Chains
    Abstract: Good quality jobs are key to accelerating poverty reduction and strengthening social cohesion in Togo. While Togo has made significant progress in creating more good quality jobs, with robust growth performance in the past decade, several jobs-related challenges remain. Togo's labor market is characterized by high levels of informality and underemployment, low productivity, and low-quality jobs. This difficult situation is compounded by the demographic trend of large cohorts of young people entering the labor market every year. As a result of this trend, it is estimated that, beginning in 2024, Togo will need to create 200,000 new jobs every year to absorb the influx of new entrants into the labor market. As described in the companion document to this report, Togo Jobs Diagnostic, a holistic approach to creating more and better jobs should be applied looking at the macro-, demand-, and supply side constraints. Solutions should focus on creating new jobs, improving job quality and productivity, and ensuring access to employment for vulnerable segments of the population
    DOI: 10.1596/40755
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  • 55
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    Uganda Economic Update 21st Edition : Leveraging Sustainable Tourism to Support Growth and Diversification (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Accommodation and Tourism Industry ; Covid-19 Economic Recovery ; Economic Outlook ; Environment ; GDP Growth ; Industry ; Job Market Diversification ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Recent Economic Developments ; Tourism and Ecotourism ; Tourism and Jobs
    Abstract: Economic activity in Uganda is accelerating despite commodity-price inflation, global monetary tightening, international supply-chain bottlenecks, and a local Ebola outbreak. Real GDP growth is estimated to reach 5.7 percent in FY22/23, albeit still below the pre-COVID-19 projection of 6.5 percent. Growth has been supported by a robust post-pandemic recovery in the services sector, bolstered by the rapid growth of information and communications technology. Real estate and construction also performed well, while agriculture suffered from droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others, as well as rising input costs. The recovery of income and employment bolstered demand, while private investment overcame tight domestic and global financial conditions to sustain increases in new exports and manufacturing orders into the third quarter of FY22/23. As growth accelerated, Uganda's per capita income increased to about USD 930 for FY21/22, edging closer to the lower-middle-income threshold
    DOI: 10.1596/40750
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  • 56
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    Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts : Welfare Status of Children in Nigeria (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (70 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Schimanski, Caroline Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts: Welfare Status of Children in Nigeria
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Chronic Poverty ; Deprivation ; Deprivation Gender Gap ; Equity and Development ; Intergenerational Mobility ; Monetary Poverty ; Multi-Dimensional Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Analyzing data from four waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey and the Nigerian Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, covering the period from 2010 through 2019, this study provides evidence that poverty levels of children exceed those of adults. Overall, rural children throughout the country and children in the North face higher poverty and chronic poverty rates than urban children and those living in the South without clear trends of a closing of those gaps. These findings hold for monetary poverty as well as, for severe health, education, food, shelter, water, information deprivation and improved sanitation deprivation across Nigeria's six regions. One exception is severe sanitation deprivation, for which especially rural areas in the Southwest stand out with higher levels of severe sanitation deprivation than in rural areas in the north and any other region. Large inter-state heterogeneity of estimates within regions, ranging up to 50 percentage points, for all except severe food deprivation however highlight the importance of looking beyond regional poverty estimates and regional differences. Only state specific, but no systematic evidence has been found for a gender difference in severe educational deprivation and school enrollment rates. Existing gender gaps though seem negligible compared to the overall level of deprivation and urban-rural and north-south gaps. Moreover, the parents' literacy and more so the educational level is highly correlated with the probability of being poor or deprived in any dimension, in particular in rural and northern areas. Interestingly, up to about half of the monetary non-poor children at the top of the consumption distribution still face at least one severe deprivation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10334
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  • 57
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    Long COVID : The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brunckhorst, Ben Long COVID: The Evolution of Household Welfare in Developing Countries during the Pandemic
    Keywords: COVID and Informal Workers ; COVID-19 Impacts ; Gender ; Gender and Poverty ; Gendered COVID Impact ; Inequality ; Labor Market Impacts ; Phone Survey Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Welfare
    Abstract: This paper examines the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, using harmonized data from 343 high-frequency phone surveys conducted in 80 economies during 2020 and 2021, representing more than 2.5 billion people. The analysis focuses on the scarring effects of the initial losses of employment and income by examining their evolution over time across and within countries, as restrictions on mobility and economic activity were introduced and then gradually relaxed. The employment and welfare outcomes of some groups that were impacted to a greater degree initially-including women, informal workers, and those with less education-have been improving at a slower pace. The social protection response in lower-income economies was largely insufficient to protect households from the pandemic shock. Unmitigated welfare losses, as seen for example from the large share of households indicating income losses well into 2021, are highly correlated with food insecurity, which likely led some households to sell physical assets and deplete their savings. Without proper remediation, the uneven welfare impacts associated with COVID-19 may be amplified over the medium to long term, leading to future increases in poverty and inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10300
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  • 58
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    Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement : A Synthesis of New Research (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Forced Displacement ; Host Communities ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Cohesion ; Social Conflict Prevention
    Abstract: This report presents new evidence from 26 background studies on forced displacement and social cohesion to expand the current knowledge base on how to prevent social conflict and promote social cohesion in forced displacement contexts. The background studies are geographically and methodologically diverse. They examine social cohesion in a variety of low-, middle-, and high-income countries across Africa, Asia, Central, and South America, and Europe. Building on this new evidence, the report provides lessons on how development investments and policies can reduce inequalities, alleviate social tensions, and promote social cohesion between and within displaced populations and host communities. Overall, the findings demonstrate that, while displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, especially in areas with strained services and limited economic opportunities, inclusive policies and development investments can effectively mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote social cohesion
    DOI: 10.1596/38431
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  • 59
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    The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis : Busting Myths through a Demonstration (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Case Study Review ; Case-Based Evaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation Design ; Intervention Effectiveness ; Interventions and Outcomes ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Support To Carbon Finance Case Study
    Abstract: Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank's support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs
    DOI: 10.1596/39773
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  • 60
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    Using Paradata to Assess Respondent Burden and Interviewer Effects in Household Surveys : Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hasanbasri, Ardina Using Paradata to Assess Respondent Burden and Interviewer Effects in Household Surveys: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    Keywords: Computer-Assisted Interviewing ; Household Surveys ; Interviewer Effects ; Paradata ; Poverty Reduction ; Respondent Burden ; Social Analysis ; Social Development ; Survey Methodology
    Abstract: Over the past decade, national statistical offices in low- and middle-income countries have increasingly transitioned to computer-assisted personal interviewing and computer-assisted telephone interviewing for the implementation of household surveys. The byproducts of these types of data collection are survey paradata, which can unlock objective, module- and question-specific, actionable insights on respondent burden, survey costs, and interviewer effects. This study does precisely that, using paradata generated by the Survey Solutions computer-assisted personal interviewing platform in recent national household surveys implemented by the national statistical offices in Cambodia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Across countries, the average household interview, based on a socioeconomic household questionnaire, ranges from 82 to 120 minutes, while the average interview with an adult household member, based on a multi-topic individual questionnaire, takes between 13 to 25 minutes. Using a multilevel model that is estimated for each household and individual questionnaire module, the paper shows that interviewer effects on module duration are significantly larger than the estimates from high-income contexts. Food consumption, household roster, and non-farm enterprises consistently emerge among the top five household questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 5 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. Similarly, labor, health, and land ownership appear among the top five individual questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 6 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. These findings, particularly by module, point to where additional interviewer training, fieldwork supervision, and data quality monitoring may be needed in future surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10456
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    Disastrous Displacement : The Long-Run Impacts of Landslides (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baseler, Travis Disastrous Displacement: The Long-Run Impacts of Landslides
    Keywords: Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Refugees ; Displacement ; Displacement and Mental Health ; Environment ; Forced Migration ; Government Adminitrated Relocation ; Landslide Impact ; Living Standards ; Mental Health and Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Natural disasters displace millions of people a year, but little is known about their long-run impacts when institutional capacity to respond to the disaster is low. This paper estimates the long-run impacts of six major landslides in Uganda, where most affected households received little aid. The analysis combines administrative and survey data from nearly the full population of affected and nearby households with exact landslide paths and a geological model of landslide risk to identify impacts relative to nearby households facing similar risk. Landslides substantially increase long-term displacement and migration, and affected households have significantly worse economic and mental health outcomes years afterward. Displacement worsens long-run outcomes, especially when not administered by the government. These findings contrast with many other studies of natural disaster, and suggest that the positive impacts of displacement require a favorable financial and institutional environment unlikely to be found in many countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10535
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  • 62
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    Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Goldemberg, Diana Minding the Gap: Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization
    Keywords: Aid Effectiveness ; Culture and Development ; Development Outcome ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Impact Evaluation ; Language and Communication ; Machine Learning Method ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Projects
    Abstract: This paper applies novel techniques to long-standing questions of aid effectiveness. It first replicates findings that donor finance is discernibly but weakly associated with sector outcomes in recipient countries. It then shows robustly that donors' own ratings of project success provide limited information on the contribution of those projects to development outcomes. By training a machine learning model on World Bank projects, the paper shows instead that the strongest predictor of these projects' contribution to outcomes is their degree of adaptation to country context, and the largest differences between ratings and actual impact occur in large projects in institutionally weak settings
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10532
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  • 63
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    Pacific Economic Update, August 2023 : Recovering in the Midst of Uncertainty - Special Focus: Harnessing the Benefits of Pacific Migration (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Benefits ; Human Capital ; Integration ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Job Markets ; Labor Markets ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Welfare
    Abstract: The global economic recovery remains fragile, creating choppy seas for the recovering Pacific. While global conditions have gradually improved since the pandemic and spillovers from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, progress on reducing inflation in major economies has proven more challenging than expected. Given that all Pacific countries are net importers, this has resulted in persistently high imported inflation. The speed of monetary policy tightening by major central banks has slowed, but easing is unlikely in the near term. Aggregate demand in major trading partners of the Pacific (particularly Australia and New Zealand) remains lackluster. This could limit demand for travel and tourism services and other income sources such as remittance and commodity exports. Despite uncertainties in the global economic recovery, Pacific economies are expected to see ongoing expansion in 2023 and 2024. Fiji led the Pacific's post-COVID-19 recovery with open borders and a strong rebound in 2022 and is now on track to reach its pre-pandemic output level in 2023. Ongoing recovery expectations in the Pacific are broadly in line with March 2023 World Bank projections except for Tuvalu and Palau, where growth has been revised down given weaker than expected outcomes in construction and tourism. In 2023, Pacific growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent and then moderate to 3.3 percent in 2024 as the initial post-COVID-19 rebound dissipates and the region moves towards its long-term trend growth of 2.6 percent. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains high and depends on whether a soft landing can be achieved among key trading partners as they battle ongoing inflation. Inflation remained stubborn across the Pacific at an average of over 6.7 percent in 2022, a substantial increase from the 1.5 percent average during 2019-2021. This has increased the risk of vulnerable populations falling into poverty. In line with global trends, Pacific inflation is expected to decline to an average of 6.0 percent in 2023 and gradually subside thereafter
    DOI: 10.1596/40146
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  • 64
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    Towards Better Labor Migration Systems in Northern Central America : Overview of Findings from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Foreign Labor Markets ; International Access ; Labor Markets ; Labor Migration ; Legal Framework ; NCA Countries ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This note aims to close the knowledge gap about the effectiveness and capacity of labor migration sending systems in NCA countries. The report assesses whether NCA countries have the fundamental elements of an effective labor migration sending system, identifies the missing elements, and offers recommendations for strengthening the systems over time. Filling such a knowledge gap is critical to inform policies that maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of economic migration. Programs and policies that help expand legal pathways for regular migration will not only promote mutually beneficial migration, but could be a step, albeit small, towards dissuading individuals from pursuing risky migration patterns. Indeed, evidence from Mexico indicates that investing in legal labor pathways can reduce irregular migration (Clemens and Gough, 2018). In this context, this note summarizes the main findings from three institutional diagnostics of the labor migration sending systems in NCA countries, with a view to deepening the understanding of the supply side of labor flows. To this end, and building on previous World Bank experience globally, a diagnostic tool was developed to identify what steps the NCA governments have taken to recognize and respond to foreign demand for workers. The tool examines if appropriate structures, systems, processes, and resources exist to prepare and deliver adequate labor supply arrangements in the context of bilateral agreements (BLAs) or Temporary Work Agreements (TWAs) with other countries. The diagnostic tool is organized around four main pillars to regulate, facilitate, fortify, and further access of labor migrants to international labor markets
    DOI: 10.1596/40131
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    An Operational Approach to Enhancing Women's and Girls' Empowerment in World Bank Projects (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Women in Development and Gender Study
    Keywords: Empowerment ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender Equality ; Poverty Reduction ; WGE ; Women and Girls ; World Bank Projects
    Abstract: Gender equality has long been central to the World Bank's twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. More recently, women's and girls' empowerment (WGE) has become a priority in the Africa region in the context of the region's demographic transition. There has been a proliferation of World Bank projects with development objectives that include "empowerment", yet there remains a lack of consensus around its definition and operationalization. This note lays out a pragmatic Operational Approach to enhancing women's and girls' empowerment in World Bank projects. It is not intended to provide a new definition of empowerment or to present a new framework. Instead, the objective of the note is to translate widely accepted empowerment concepts into an operational approach to WGE that Bank Task Team Leaders (TTLs) can use in their project and ASA work. The approach includes: (i) a systematic way to analyze constraints to achieving WGE in the context of lending or analytical products; (ii) a list of potential intervention areas within the three empowerment pillars that can be integrated into World Bank projects; and (iii) guidance on how to incorporate the operational approach to WGE into project design
    DOI: 10.1596/40110
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  • 66
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    How to Design a Grievance Mechanism that Responds to Gender-Based Violence? : Learning from South Sudan (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Gender and Poverty ; Gender Based Violence ; Grievance Mechanism ; Human Capital ; Poverty Reduction ; Sexual Abuse ; Sexual Exploitation
    Abstract: The grievance mechanism is based on a survivor-centric approach id est, empowering the survivor of gender-based violence by prioritizing their rights, needs, and wishes. This note provides an overview of the grievance mechanism's setup and details for teams who may be considering implementing a similar mechanism in their projects
    DOI: 10.1596/40107
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    Job Training and Job Search Assistance Policies in Developing Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Carranza, Eliana Job Training and Job Search Assistance Policies in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Active Labor Market Policy ; Employment and Unemployment ; Job Search Assistance ; Job Training Effectiveness ; Poverty Reduction ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Social Protections and Labor ; Worker Skills Training
    Abstract: Governments around the developing world face pressure to intervene actively to help jobseekers find employment. Two of the most common policies used are job training, based on the idea that many of those seeking jobs lack the skills employers want, and job search assistance, based on the possibility that even if workers have the skills demanded, search and matching frictions make it difficult for workers to be hired in the jobs that need these skills. However, reviews of the first generation of evaluations of these programs found typical impacts to be small, casting doubt on the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of these programs. This paper reexamines the arguments for whether, when, and how developing country governments should undertake job training and job search assistance policies. The authors use their experience with policy implementation, and evidence from recent impact evaluations, to argue that there is still a role for governments in using these programs. However, success depends critically on program design and delivery elements that can be difficult to scale effectively, and in many cases the binding constraint may be a lack of firms with job openings, rather than a lack of workers with the skills to fill these openings
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10576
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  • 68
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    Rebel with a Cause : Effects of a Gender Norms Intervention for Adolescents in Somalia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brar, Rajdev Rebel with a Cause: Effects of a Gender Norms Intervention for Adolescents in Somalia
    Keywords: Adolescent Gender Norm Intervention ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Social Policy ; Gender Impact Evaluation ; Gender Inequality ; Gender Innovation Lab, Africa Region ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Norm Conformity ; Girl's Life Choices ; Poverty Reduction ; Women's Empowerment
    Abstract: Gender inequality and restrictive norms are often reinforced and internalized during adolescence, influencing pivotal life choices. This paper presents results from a randomly-assigned gender norms intervention for young adolescents in Somalia that led to greater support for gender equality in reported attitudes among both girls and boys. In a novel lab-in-the-field experiment designed to observe social group dynamics, treated adolescents were also found to be less likely to succumb to peer pressure to conform when stating their gender attitudes in public. Perceptions of gender norms appears to shift for boys, leading to a greater public expression of gender egalitarian ideals. Furthermore, the findings show improved adolescent mental health, increased caring behavior towards siblings of the opposite sex, and a higher likelihood of involvement in household chores by boys. A complementary gender norms intervention for parents had limited marginal impact on the attitudes and behaviors of adolescents. The results suggest that gender norms interventions can be effective in influencing the attitudes and public discourse around gender equality, even in early adolescence
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10567
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  • 69
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    Household Surveys during Multiple Crises : Modifying Questionnaires to Assess the Impact of Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: COVID-19 Impact ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equity and Development ; Household Survey Data ; Household Survey Design ; Impact of Shocks on Households ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Questionnaire Design ; Shocks and Household Welfare
    Abstract: Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced multiple global crises in the last few years. As countries adapt to a new normal, multi-topic household surveys should also be adapted to account for the impacts of shocks on household welfare. By reviewing the standard household survey questionnaires included in the guidebook, capturing what matters: essential guidelines for designing household surveys, the authors provide technical guidance on issues to consider when reviewing, designing, or updating questionnaires for household surveys during or after a major shock - relying on lessons learned from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study program
    DOI: 10.1596/40391
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    Fiscal Policy and Equity : Vietnam 2018 Fiscal Incidence Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez, Laura Fiscal Policy and Equity: Vietnam 2018 Fiscal Incidence Analysis
    Keywords: Equity and Development ; Fiscal Incidende ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Social Spending ; Taxation ; Transfers
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributive and poverty reducing effects of Vietnam's fiscal system in 2018. The paper looks at the incidence across the distribution and the effect of (direct and indirect) taxes, subsidies, and social spending (in cash and in-kind) on inequality and poverty in Vietnam using the Commitment to Equity methodology. The overall pattern of taxes and transfers in Vietnam is moderately progressive, but most households pay more in taxes and co-payments than what they receive in cash benefits, and the fiscal system results in a small increase in poverty. The progressivity of the fiscal system and its inequality-reduction impact mostly comes from in-kind health and education spending. This reduction in inequality is about average for lower-middle-income countries, but Vietnam could do more to increase the progressivity of its fiscal system
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10538
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    Where is Poverty Concentrated? : New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban andPoverty Measurements (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (96 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Where is Poverty Concentrated? New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban andPoverty Measurements
    Keywords: Cost of Living ; Global Poverty ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measurement Framework ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Statistic Comparison ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Poverty ; Urbanization
    Abstract: The lack of comparable urban definitions across countries has presented a significant challenge in effectively addressing poverty in both urban and rural areas. This study aims to tackle this issue by comparing subnational poverty statistics across countries, integrating internationally consistent definitions of urban areas into the World Bank's official global poverty measurement framework. Focusing primarily on 16 Sub-Saharan African countries, the analysis reveals that poverty rates tend to be lower in densely populated urban areas. However, the findings also highlight that urban areas have a higher concentration of impoverished populations than previously estimated. These results underscore the importance of employing consistent urban definitions in cross-country poverty analysis and call for a reevaluation of geographically targeted policies to expedite poverty reduction efforts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10620
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    Togo Economic Update : Unlocking Togo's Potential (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; ICT Applications ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Trade ; Sequential Shocks
    Abstract: Since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, Togo's economy has shown signs of resilience in the face of shocks but efforts to reduce poverty were frustrated and fiscal space depleted. Togo was able to avoid a recession in 2020, with real GDP growth recorded at 2 percent, before rebounding rapidly to 6.0 percent in 2021, thanks in part to a strong counter-cyclical fiscal policy response. Challenges intensified again in 2022 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine contributed to a sharp uptick in energy, fertilizer, and food prices, while global demand decelerated, and financing conditions tightened. However, growth remained robust at 5.8 percent in 2022 as a significant increase in public spending helped counterbalance the adverse impact of weakening export revenues, rising inflation, and decelerating consumer spending. Low-income households were affected by high food price inflation in 2021-22, but the effect on poverty was offset by sustained economic growth and the benefits accruing to poor households dependent on agricultural income. Global headwinds, high domestic inflation, and growing insecurity in the northern Savanes region have prompted the Government to significantly ramp up emergency spending, leading the budget deficit to a three-decade high of 8.3 percent of GDP, from 4.7 percent in 2022
    DOI: 10.1596/40544
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    Malaysia Economic Monitor, October 2023 : Raising the Tide, Lifting All Boats (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Space ; Growth ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Reforms
    Abstract: Global economic activity registered resilient growth in early 2023 but is losing momentum. Advanced economies growth slowed less-than-anticipated inearly 2023 as tight labor markets drove wages up, preventing a sharp decline in consumption. However, global growth slowed slightly in Q2 2023, with services growth cooling gradually and manufacturing remaining soft. Global inflation has moderated in recent months, largely reflecting favorable base effects from commodity prices falling below their 2022 peaks, along with abating supply chain pressures. Global trade in services strengthened in 1H 2023 thanks to the easing of mobility restrictions but trade in goods slowed due to weakening global industrial production
    DOI: 10.1596/40441
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    Republic of Congo Country Climate and Development Report - Diversifying Congo's Economy : Making the Most of Climate Change (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation ; Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Governance ; Climate Resilience ; Economic Diversification ; Environment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Health Costs ; Natural Capital ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Republic Of Congo ; Sustainable Growth
    Abstract: The Republic of Congo (RoC) CCDR is a new World Bank core diagnostic report that integrate climate change and development considerations. It is intended to help the country prioritize the most impactful actions that can boost adaptation and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while delivering on broader development goals. The CCDR builds on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce climate vulnerabilities and GHG emissions, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The report highlights that RoC could reduce poverty in rural areas by 40% and in urban areas by 20% by 2050 by implementing more ambitious reforms to promote economic diversification and climate resilience. It also concludes that business as usual is not an option. Economic losses could reach up to 17% of GDP by 2050 if reforms to diversify the economy and attract more climate investments are not taken. Climate impacts could also increase total health costs from USD 92 million in 2010 to USD 260 million by 2050. The report identifies four priorities to promote sustainable growth in the country: (i) stronger and greener infrastructure and services in electricity, transport, water, and sanitation can deliver transformative results; (ii) More climate-ready education, health systems and social services can save lives and bring critical resources to the poorest; (iii) More investments in natural capital including climate smart agriculture and greater forest management along will help create jobs while reducing carbon emissions; (iv) better climate governance to leverage carbon markets. The forest contributes to USD 260 million in timber exports and store over 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Protecting and valorizing the forest is critical to turn the country's natural capital into wealth. The report emphasizes that the private sector has a critical role to play in mobilizing financing for an ambitious set of reforms and investments in the context of tight fiscal space. This will require raising awareness on risks and opportunities from climate change, and innovative solutions and financial sector reforms
    DOI: 10.1596/40433
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    Delivering Digital G2P Payments to Urban Informal Populations : Lessons and Future Policy Implications from COVID-19 Responses (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2153
    Keywords: Access To Digital Infrastructure ; Access To Financial Infrastructure ; Digital Divide ; Government To Person Payments (G2P) ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Social Protection Rapid Deployment ; Urban Informal Sector ; Urban Partnerships and Poverty ; Urban Poverty ; Use of Big Data
    Abstract: The COVID-19 response in many Sub-Saharan African countries included the rapid deployment of social protection programs leveraging digital systems to counteract the income losses that were disproportionately experienced by urban informal populations. Using data from three in-depth country case studies, this paper finds that these digital government-to-person (G2P) payments contributed to countries reaching beneficiaries quickly and safely and that G2P payments may be particularly viable in urban, as compared to rural, areas due to greater access to digital and financial infrastructure, creative use of big data, and population density that allows for mass communication. However, there are still pockets of exclusion in urban areas emerging from incomplete digital access, limited financial inclusion, underdeveloped financial ecosystems, and high population mobility. It is particularly challenging to identify, communicate with, assess, and deliver G2P services to informal workers in urban areas due to their non-registration status, variable income flows, the blending of the home and household enterprises into a single entity, and the governments' limited experience in identifying eligible beneficiaries within this segment. While adopting a digital G2P architecture provides a promising avenue to strengthen the safety nets for this segment in the region, exclusion challenges remain. Given the ubiquity of urban informality in the region, countries will need to work to include the urban informal in foundational digital systems, such as national IDs and social registries, adopt flexible regulatory and hybrid delivery models to address the sector's varied needs, and seek to foster robust digital payment ecosystems to maximize the potential for spillover benefits
    DOI: 10.1596/40422
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    How Korea's National Health Insurance (NHI) Responded to the COVID-19 Pandemic : Policy Note (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Access To Health Care ; Covid-19 Response ; Gender ; Gender and Health ; Health Care Providers Financial Risk ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Healthcare Equity ; National Health Insurance ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Past experience of emerging infectious diseases enabled the Republic of Korea to respond promptly to COVID-19. The government's zero out-of-pocket strategy, dedicated funding to infectious diseases, previously reformed legal and policy frameworks, and proactive risk communication minimized the impact of COVID-19 on the population's health and economy. Pre-existing universal health coverage (UHC) and the role of national health insurance (NHI) contributed to lessening this burden. The National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) reduced premiums for vulnerable populations, facilitated early financing to health care providers, provided free COVID-19-related services, and increased benefit packages covering all populations in the country. The integrated health data system managed by the NHIS was used for customized treatments and enabled policy decisions during the pandemic. Data analysis for this note shows that there were no significant socioeconomic disparities in the COVID-19 prevalence, mortality, and vaccination rates
    DOI: 10.1596/40704
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  • 77
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    Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in El Salvador (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rude, Britta Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in El Salvador
    Keywords: Adaptive Safety Nets ; Development Patterns and Poverty ; Household-Level Shocks ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Risk Mitigation Strategy ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Social Risk Management ; Vulnerability To Poverty ; Vulnerable Populations
    Abstract: El Salvador is marked by high vulnerability to risks and hazards, such as crime, natural disasters, and migration. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the vulnerability patterns of its population. This paper applies an innovative approach to estimate the population's vulnerability to poverty and analyze its underlying drivers. The findings show that ex-ante vulnerability to poverty decreased over 2016 to 2019, a parallel trend to the poverty reduction observed in the country during this period. This finding comes hand in hand with an increase in the importance of risk factors relative to a low accumulation of assets driving vulnerability. Additionally, household-level shocks play a more significant role than community-level shocks. To address vulnerabilities in the country, the government should invest in adaptive safety nets and risk mitigation strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10289
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    Honduras Poverty Assessment : Toward a Path of Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Environment ; Equity and Development ; Human Capital ; Inclusive Growth ; Labor Market ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Honduras, already among the poorest countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, experienced weak poverty reduction in 2014-19 compared to other countries in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota led to a rise in poverty from 2019 to 2020; it is likely that poverty will remain above prepandemic levels in 2021. The economic rebound in 2021, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, led to an increase in food prices; at the same time, Honduras's population is vulnerable to rising food prices and food insecurity is high. In 2019, the extreme poor spent almost half of their income on food. Additionally, food insecurity was persistently high. A striking feature of Honduras is the deep and widening urban-rural divide in terms of quality of life. There is a wide urban-rural poverty gap for both the moderate and the extreme poor, which reflects significant disparities in access to basic services such as electricity, water, and sanitation, and internet usage, as well as lower human capital accumulation and worsen labor market indicators in rural areas. While overall income inequality has been stagnant since 2014, inequality in rural areas has increased while in urban areas it has declined. The country is one of the most unequal countries in LAC. Hondurans continue to face deep and persistent disparities in access to and quality of education, with rural areas heavily penalized, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, despite high spending on education. Subnational disparities are particularly large; poverty continues to be most heavily concentrated in the country's southwestern areas, in departments with higher shares of ethnic minorities, and in municipalities located in the south and southwest. This report focuses on the factors that have contributed to these observed poverty and inequality trends and patterns in Honduras
    DOI: 10.1596/39449
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    Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? : Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nakamura, Shohei Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia
    Keywords: Climatic Change ; Environment ; Flooding ; Migration ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Agglomeration ; Urban Climate Shock ; Urban Poverty
    Abstract: While urbanization has great potential to facilitate poverty reduction, climate shocks represent a looming threat to such upward mobility. This paper empirically analyzes the effects of climatic risks on the function of urban agglomerations to support poor households to escape from poverty. Combining household surveys with climatic datasets, the panel regression analysis for Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia finds that households in large metropolitan areas are more likely to escape from poverty, indicating better access to economic opportunities in those areas. However, the climate shocks offset such benefits of urban agglomerations, as extreme rainfalls and high flood risks significantly reduce the chance of upward mobility. The findings underscore the need to enhance resilience among the urban poor to allow them to fully utilize the benefits of urban agglomerations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10383
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  • 80
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    Leaning in at Home : Women's Promotions and Intra-Household Bargaining in Bangladesh (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (100 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Uckat, Hannah Leaning in at Home: Women's Promotions and Intra-Household Bargaining in Bangladesh
    Keywords: Decision Making and Poverty ; Female Managers ; Female Role Models ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Empowerment ; Poverty Reduction ; Textile Industry Jobs ; Womens Agency ; Womens Career Impact
    Abstract: It is established that entering employment improves a woman's bargaining position in the household. This paper investigates whether a woman's career advancement further improves her intra-household bargaining power. The analysis exploits quasi-random participation in a career promotion program in Bangladesh's garment industry to causally estimate the impact of women's promotion on household decision-making. The findings show that women who participate in the promotion program gain bargaining power as measured by higher expenditures on women (51%) and girls (74%), and on remittances (58%). The promotion-related income effect only partially explains these increases, suggesting that women gain more agency over household income more generally. Further, these new female managers now serve as role models to their staff. The paper finds that the direct effects spill over to women who are quasi-randomly exposed to the new female managers, who also report more say in household decisions. Complementarities between women's positions in the workplace and in the household appear important
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10370
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    The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes : A Meta-Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis
    Keywords: Digital Infrastructure Outcomes ; Energy Infrastructure Research ; ICT Infrastructure Research ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Infrastructure Elasticities ; Infrastructure Literature Meta-Analysis ; Infrastructure Policy Research ; Poverty Reduction ; Transport Infrastructure Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper presents a meta-analysis of the infrastructure research done over more than three decades, using a database of close to a thousand estimates from 201 papers conducted between 1983-2022, reporting outcome elasticities. The analysis casts a wide net to include the transport, energy, and digital or information and communications technology sectors and the whole set of outcomes covered in the literature, including output, employment and wages, inequality and poverty, trade, education and health, population, and environmental aspects. The results allow for an update of the underlying parameters of interest, the "true" underlying infrastructure elasticities, accounting for publication bias, as well as for heterogeneity stemming from both study design and context, with a particular focus on policy relevant subsectors and developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10350
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    Diagnosing the Binding Constraints to Better Jobs : An Approach and Framework (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Access To Capital ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Capital Constraint ; Jobs ; Labor Market Policy ; Low Productivity Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The persistent lack of good jobs that is, an inadequate level or quality of jobs, inefficient and/or inequitable jobs outcomes is a key economic issue in developing (and some developed) economies. Yet policy responses often lack an understanding of the causes. While the proximate drivers, such as low productivity growth, slow capital deepening, or a lack of firms and other organized economic actors, may share patterns, the policy roots and circumstances of these outcomes vary a great deal by country. Thus, making progress in a meaningful and lasting way requires, in the first instance, a clear understanding of the binding constraints which, if alleviated, would result in a substantial structural improvement to jobs outcomes. Binding constraints could arise in a host of policies and institutions, including possibly inadequate human capital and labor market policies but also in infrastructure, regulatory, financial, judicial and other areas. This paper provides a data-driven approach and framework for diagnosing the truly binding constraints to better jobs. The approach is to rule out broad categories of constraints using economic logic and data, and to utilize an array of empirical indicators to test whether remaining candidate constraints are binding. While this paper outlines an exhaustive approach, the style of thinking and techniques can also be applied selectively to fill analytical gaps and ensure that key issues are not left unaddressed
    DOI: 10.1596/39818
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    Indonesia Poverty Assessment : Pathways towards Economic Security (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Keywords: Aspiring Upper Middle-Income Goals ; Meeting Poverty Reduction Goals ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Poverty Reduction Targets ; PPP Poverty Line ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: Indonesia can build on its impressive track-record of poverty reduction to tackle more ambitious poverty reduction targets. Indonesia has made impressive gains in reducing poverty, with previously lagging regions catching up, and the Government's goal to eliminate extreme poverty by 2024 practically met. As an aspiring upper middle-income country, however, Indonesia may want to widen its focus beyond extreme poverty by moving from the USD 1.90 2011 PPP poverty line to higher lines for middle-income countries. The focus should also include economically insecure households susceptible to falling back into poverty. Is Indonesia's current effort ready for this challenge Human capital outcomes are disappointing and worrying geographic disparities remain. Low productivity still prevents households from becoming economically secure. Shocks, including from climate change, continue to threaten reversal in poverty gains. In this report the authors identify several major pathways to tackle these challenges in a comprehensive and sustainable manner
    DOI: 10.1596/39799
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    Consumer Surplus with Incomplete Markets : Applications to Savings and Microfinance (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Loeser, John Ashton Consumer Surplus with Incomplete Markets: Applications to Savings and Microfinance
    Keywords: Consumer Surplus ; Financial Inclusion ; Household Welfare Gains ; Incomplete Financial Markets ; Living Standards ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The household welfare gains from financial inclusion are empirically elusive. This paper establishes that household welfare gains from a financial technology are equal to the area under dynamically compensated demand in a household model with incomplete financial markets, and general technology, preferences, and choice sets. This paper then estimates compensated demand for financial technologies leveraging three randomized control trials that introduce experimental variation in interest rates. Welfare gains per dollar lent or saved are small as compensated demand elasticities are large, but still correspond to large aggregate welfare gains from financial inclusion
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10481
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  • 85
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    Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality? : Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (83 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh H Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality? Global Evidence from Subnational Data Analysis
    Keywords: Climate Change Inequity ; Inequality ; Poverty and Environment ; Poverty Reduction ; Subnational Data ; Temperature
    Abstract: Despite a vast literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little evidence exists on the global impacts of hotter temperature on poverty and inequality. Analysis of a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 134 countries finds that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 9.1 percent increase in poverty, using the USD 1.90 daily poverty threshold. A similar increase in temperature causes a 1.4 percent increase in the Gini inequality index. The paper also finds negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries-particularly those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa-are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on the responsibilities of richer countries versus poorer countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10466
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  • 86
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    Kosovo Public Expenditure Review (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: Kosovo has gained a creditable reputation for prudent macro-fiscal management; yet necessary structural reforms and related fiscal pressures lie ahead. The country's track record includes consistently high output growth rates, prudent fiscal deficits supported by fiscal rules, and one of the lowest public debt levels among peers. The Government was able to successfully weather the COVID-19 crisis and mitigate the impact of the ongoing inflationary crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine thanks to its healthy fiscal accounts and stable financial sectors. At the same time, however, the overlapping external shocks have highlighted the inherent volatility that mirrors Kosovo's structural limitations - especially in health, energy, and education - and accentuates gaps in both human and physical capital. The objective of this Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to help the government identify means for improving the structure and quality of public services, enhance the equity of government spending, and take a holistic view of policies that will affect financing needs over time. To do so, the PER has analyzed fiscal issues that have not been explicitly detailed in, or are in the process of being incorporated into, the medium-term expenditure framework and the economic reform program. The most notable issues include the urgently needed energy investments, the ramifications of the new law on public salaries on the budget, the sustainability of the untargeted social protection system, and possible pathways of the cost of pensions in light of expected changes to eligibility criteria, and the health spending and health financing conundrum. The PER also looks back at past World Bank PER recommendations and their implementation record, in the attempt to shine a light on measures that remain valid and could still be implemented
    DOI: 10.1596/39944
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    The Welfare Effects of Structural Change and Internal Migration in Tanzania (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amankwah, Akuffo The Welfare Effects of Structural Change and Internal Migration in Tanzania
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Cross-Sector Labor Movement ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Structures ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Internal Migration ; Labor Market Shift ; Panel Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Structural Change ; Welfare Indicators
    Abstract: Structural change has implications for various dimensions of development, including poverty reduction. However, the existing empirical literature on Sub-Saharan African economies, including Tanzania, has mainly focused on trends and patterns in macroeconomic or aggregate welfare indicators, largely providing a descriptive analysis of the nature of structural change and its potential welfare implications. This paper provides micro insights on structural change in Tanzania and its effect on welfare, using a recent household panel dataset, which was collected between 2015 and 2021. The results show that cross-sector labor movements are dominated by movements between agriculture and services, although most individuals studied within the two periods continue to remain in agriculture, with industry's share in employment declining marginally. The paper shows that among the individuals studied, the number of people who slid into poverty was nearly twice the number who escaped poverty, and this is significantly influenced by the pattern of sectoral transitions experienced by the individuals. The findings show that in addition to sectoral transitions and migration being important to each other, they are both driven by similar micro factors. The paper highlights the importance of education (particularly secondary or higher education) to increasing the chances of an individual embarking on welfare-enhancing sectoral movement and associated migration across districts in Tanzania
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10530
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    Revisiting the Distributive Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Colombia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (91 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baquero, Juan Pablo Revisiting the Distributive Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Colombia
    Keywords: Distributiveimpact of Taxes ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Fiscal Policy ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending Impact Inequality ; Tax Law ; Transfer Impact on Poverty
    Abstract: Colombia is one of the most unequal countries in the region and the world. Given the redistributive role of fiscal policy, this study uses recent data from the 2021 Integrated Household Survey to explore the impacts of taxes and spending on poverty and inequality in Colombia. The study introduces innovations to the literature on Colombia, including an update of the fiscal microsimulation model to reflect the most recent economic context; an introduction of new fiscal policy parameters, such as gasoline subsidies and carbon taxes; and methodological improvements. The results show positive redistributive impacts, but these are considerably lower than those seen in other country members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Direct taxes and transfers reduce the Gini index from 0.543 to 0.505; and direct taxes, indirect taxes, subsidies, and monetary transfers reduce total poverty from 42.1 to 40.2 percent and extreme poverty from 16.1 to 11.7 percent. Direct taxes, transfers, and subsidies are progressive and contribute to poverty reduction, while indirect taxes such as the value-added tax or consumption tax are regressive and do not reduce poverty. This reflects a tax system that is progressive, but not progressive enough (with a low proportion of the population with high levels of income contributing), and cash transfer and subsidy programs that have room for improvement in their targeting
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10520
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    Liberia Economic Update, June 2023 : Getting Rice Right for Productivity and Poverty Alleviation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Financial Sector ; Fiscal Policy ; Growth and Poverty ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rice Economy
    Abstract: In the last two years, Liberia's economic performance has improved. Inflation remained in single digits despite high global food and fuel prices and a relaxation in monetary and fiscal policies. Liberia's poverty rate is projected to have declined slightly in the last two years as GDP growth rebounds and inflation moderates. On the external side, Liberia's current account balance improved in 2022, thanks to the continued increase in mining export earnings. The increase in gold export in 2022 offset the increase in imports. Liberia's medium-term economic outlook is positive, but uncertainties remain. Even as it has been trying to recover from a decade of weak economic and social performance, Liberia's overall productivity and economic efficiency remain low, especially in vital sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Demographic trends, economic growth, and a strong preference for rice are the main drivers of demand. Yet, Liberia produces only one-third of its rice needs due to several constraints, including limited access to technology, inefficient farming practices, low public and private investments, and a fragmented value chain, among other factors that have kept productivity low. Amid low production, the increase in imported rice prices continues to fuel food insecurity, poverty, and vulnerabilities in Liberia. Domestic production would need to triple to satisfy local demand, but increasing production would require significant investments in the rice sector, as well as policy actions. This report provides some broad directions for policies
    DOI: 10.1596/40108
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  • 90
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    Seventh Ghana Economic Update : Price Surge - Unraveling Inflation's Toll on Poverty and Food Security (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: DEBT Management ; Fiscal Sector ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Ghana's economy entered a full-blown crisis in 2022, after having rebounded from the COVID-19 slowdown in 2021. In response to the macroeconomic challenges, the authorities enacted some fiscal adjustment in 2022 but fell short of their consolidation targets; the 2023Q1 fiscal deficit (cash) was within target. Expenditure consolidation and revenue mobilization continued to be hampered by structural constraints. To address these unsustainable domestic and external imbalances, the authorities embarked on a comprehensive debt restructuring operation. Against the backdrop, growth is projected to decelerate further in 2023-24, before picking up in the medium-term. The government has embarked on an ambitious fiscal consolidation plan: however, delivering on it will require addressing long-standing revenue mobilization and budget control weaknesses. In 2023, the authorities intend to finance the fiscal deficit from multilateral (and other official) sources, in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - supported program, and from the domestic treasury bills (T-bills) market. In addition, leveraging government programs to build up resilience against vulnerability is an imperative and should not be suspended during the crisis. Beefing up the government's payments through the livelihood empowerment against poverty will be critical. Second, support for food self-sufficiency is needed in Ghana (a goal for many countries now due to the global food crisis), while opening the country to generate more export revenues. The Ghana Tree Crops Diversification Project can serve as a critical puzzle piece of the country's current challenges. The project will support poverty alleviation while setting the country up to generate more foreign revenues in the medium to long-term
    DOI: 10.1596/40064
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  • 91
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    Climate and Equity : A Framework to Guide Policy Action (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change Impact ; Climate Change Impacts ; Environment ; Equity and Development ; Future Hazards ; Policy Actions ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Reducing the impact of climate change on poor and vulnerable households is essential to hastening poverty reduction. In thinking about policies that do this, it is useful to apply the same hazard, exposure and vulnerability framework that is often used to understand the physical impacts of climate change and add the non-climate benefits and costs to households that these policies can also bring. Policies that reduce hazards and vulnerability whilst bringing non-climate benefits-triple win policies-are not very common, but where possible they should be prioritized. Policies that reduce vulnerability and bring non-climate benefits are more common. However, some development policies that bring non-climate benefits, particularly in higher-income and higher-growth countries, may increase emissions by enough to worsen future hazards, so their emissions impact needs to be managed with compensating actions. Policies that reduce the hazards faced by poor households are needed, and the non-climate cost of these policies on poor people should be minimized or compensated where it cannot be avoided
    DOI: 10.1596/39952
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  • 92
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    Reconceptualizing Global Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, with Illustration on Nigerian Data (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Bonoit Reconceptualizing Global Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, with Illustration on Nigerian Data
    Keywords: Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Monitary Poverty Measurement Bias ; Mortality Impact Measurement ; Multidimensional Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Well-Being Indicator
    Abstract: Multidimensional poverty measures can in theory make well-being comparisons that are less biased than those solely based on monetary poverty. However, global multidimensional poverty measures suffer in practice from limitations that have led to credible criticisms. This paper presents the case for multidimensional poverty measures, two criticisms against their current implementations, as well as recently proposed solutions to improve on these criticisms. The paper develops a method for implementing these solutions in practice. The resulting well-being indicator is used to compare well-being across Nigerian states in 2019. This empirical illustration suggests that these solutions may substantially affect well-being comparisons. The paper also quantifies the potential bias inherent to comparing well-being solely based on monetary poverty. The results find substantially different well-being comparisons between the proposed well-being indicator and monetary poverty even though monetary poverty was (i) high in Nigeria in 2019 and (ii) very heterogeneously distributed across Nigerian states; and (iii) is integrated as one component of the proposed well-being indicator. The paper aims to improve global multidimensional poverty measures by making them more consistent with preference theory and by incorporating the direct impact of mortality, which deprives individuals of the most important functioning
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10577
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  • 93
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    Inequality of Opportunity and Investment Choices (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brock, J. Michelle Inequality of Opportunity and Investment Choices
    Keywords: Economic Investment and Savings ; Equity and Development ; Income Distribution ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Investment Choices ; Investment Risk ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Peer Effects on Personal Investment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity leads to misallocation of human capital and can affect economies via its impact on individual economic decision making. This paper studies the impact of inequality of opportunity on investment, using a laboratory experiment. The experiment randomized inequality of opportunity, then subjects chose to invest in a risky asset or savings. The results suggest that inequality of opportunity impacts investment choices only for people who are penalized by their circumstances and only once they learn the impact of inequality of opportunity on their relative position in the income distribution. This disadvantaged group invests more often and invests higher shares of their earnings than the control and advantaged groups. The fact that both inequality of opportunity and knowledge of relative position need to be present for the impact on investment to materialize points to the importance of peer effects. More broadly, the paper highlights the relevance of social preferences for understanding the effects of inequality of opportunity on individual decision making
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10569
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  • 94
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    Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Agriculture and Food Security ; Economic Shocks ; Economic Theory and Research ; Food Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning Advances ; Macroeconomic Monitoring ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10559
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  • 95
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    A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts : Evidence from Turkiye (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baez, Javier E A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts: Evidence from Turkiye
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Growth ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Data on National Income ; Economic Development Analysis ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth Cycles ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Analyses ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measurement of National Income ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Economic Activity ; Spatial Inequality
    Abstract: This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Turkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector's gross value added during the post-2009 rebound-consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity-with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10553
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  • 96
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    Preferences for Wage Discrimination against Women (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Seitz, William Preferences for Wage Discrimination against Women
    Keywords: Age Bias ; Discrimination ; Equal Pay ; Equity and Development ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Gender Equality ; Gender Wage Gap ; Inequality ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Systematic Gender Bias ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This study demonstrates systematic bias against women in public perceptions of the fairness of wages. In nationally representative survey experiments across more than 70,000 individual vignettes posed to 4,500 respondents in three Central Asian countries, respondents were 13 percent more likely to say wages were "too high" when the randomly assigned person described in the vignette (subject) was a woman, and 34 percent more likely to say they were "too low" when the subject was a man. The pattern of bias favoring higher wages for men is statistically significant at conventional levels in all three countries, among both male and female respondents, and in each of the eight occupations studied. The results also demonstrate the presence of significant bias in favor or older workers, specifically for white-collar occupations, and the absence of this relationship for the blue-collar occupations included in the experiment. The findings reinforce the importance of bias as a contributing factor to the gender pay gap, and the value of equal pay regulations to prevent gender discrimination in wage setting
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10548
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  • 97
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    Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers : Evidence from Mexico (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arias, Francisco Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Mexico
    Keywords: Difference in Difference ; Education ; Education and Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Employment ; Job Displacement ; Job Loss Impact by Education ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Wages ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of -7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from -7.5 to -4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10536
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  • 98
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    Financial Inclusion : Lessons from World Bank Group Experience, Fiscal Years 2014-22 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Assessment of World Bank Effectiveness ; Equity and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion Policy ; Financial Reform ; Financial Services ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Institutional Reform ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This evaluation explores how and with what effect the World Bank Group has supported financial inclusion for the microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. Financial inclusion is defined as the use of financial services by individuals and firms. It encompasses financial access-owning an account-and the use of financial services. There has been an impressive growth in account ownership globally, from 55% of adults in 2014 to 71% in 2021, although usage is more limited as some accounts are inactive. Critically, both financial access and the use of financial services remain major challenges for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups. The objective of the evaluation is to assess whether the Bank Group has been doing the right things and whether it has been doing things right on financial inclusion. The evaluation captures lessons from the World Bank's experience supporting financial inclusion for microenterprises, poor households, women, and other excluded groups and updates a 2015 financial inclusion evaluation. The evaluation includes a retrospective look at the drive for universal financial access and examines progress and challenges in women's access to financial services. The evaluation also assesses the Bank Group's support for digital financial services as vehicles for financial inclusion. Finally, the report examines the World Bank's response to COVID-19 as it relates to financial inclusion. The evaluation proposes three recommendations: (i) The World Bank and IFC should further encourage account use by underserved groups, including women and rural poor people, and emphasize this more in their strategies and projects. (ii) The World Bank and IFC should design and implement more comprehensive approaches that address constraints in the enabling environment for DFS to reach underserved and excluded groups. (iii) To enhance learning on what works to increase the beneficial use of financial services at the MPWEG, the World Bank and IFC should collect outcome data across different underserved and excluded groups, initially on a pilot basis
    DOI: 10.1596/40282
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  • 99
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    Updating Poverty in Afghanistan Using the SWIFT-Plus Methodology (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Barriga-Cabanillas, Oscar Updating Poverty in Afghanistan Using the SWIFT-Plus Methodology
    Keywords: Living Standards ; Poverty Estimation Methodology ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measurement ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Short Term Poverty Monitoring ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Close to half of the population of Afghanistan was living below the national poverty line prior to the regime change in August 2021, with no additional information on poverty collected in the country since the last official household survey in 2019/20. This paper fills this knowledge gap through survey-to-survey imputation using a SWIFT-plus methodology. The analysis trains a predictive model on data from the 2019/20 Expenditure and Labor Force survey and imputes poverty in the latest Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey. The analysis accounts for seasonality in welfare patterns and implements several tests to assess the model's predictive capacity. The results show that 48.3 percent of the Afghan population was poor as of April-June 2023, a relative decline of 4 percentage points compared to poverty levels observed over the same months in 2020. The reduction in poverty was concentrated among rural households, with a decline from 51 to 44 percent, while it stagnated in urban areas at around 58 percent. Although no poverty data exists since 2020, the evolution of self-reported welfare and food security makes it reasonable to conclude that poverty first increased during the immediate economic contraction following the regime change and has progressively declined since then
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10616
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  • 100
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    Indonesia's Informal Economy : Measurement, Evidence, and a Research Agenda (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ablaza, Christine Indonesia's Informal Economy: Measurement, Evidence, and a Research Agenda
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Employment and Unemployment ; Informal Economy Literature Review ; Informal Economy Research ; Informal Employment ; Informal Sector Policy ; Informality Literature ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Work and Working Conditions
    Abstract: Indonesia has made remarkable economic progress since the Asian Financial Crisis. To sustain its growth and achieve high-income status by 2045, it needs to address the long-standing challenge of informality. Doing so will require a coordinated policy approach informed by robust empirical evidence on the underlying causes and consequences of informality. This paper contributes to this agenda by reviewing the state of knowledge on the informal economy in Indonesia. The study focuses on three key areas of relevance to future policies on informality, namely: (1) key definitions and measures, (2) existing data sources, and (3) findings from previous research. The paper identifies remaining gaps in the existing data and empirical literature and uses this to construct an agenda for future work on the subject
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10608
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