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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,677)
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (1,206)
  • Health, Nutrition and Population  (575)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Horton, Susan Estimating Economic Costs of Unhealthy Diets: A Proposed Methodology
    Keywords: Agrifood Policy ; Cancer ; Diet Quality ; Food Choices ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Healthcare Costs ; Non-Communicable Disease ; Nutrition ; Obesity ; Undernutrition
    Abstract: Healthy diets have been characterized as responding to four universal principles--nutrient adequacy, dietary diversity, macronutrient balance, and moderation. With rising incomes, diet concerns globally have shifted from inadequacy of nutrients and lack of diversity, to lack of balance and moderation. This has occurred alongside declining rates of stunting and wasting in children under five and increasing rates of overweight and obesity across a broad age span. Calculations undertaken for low- and middle-income countries for policy and advocacy purposes of the economic cost of unhealthy diets have used nutritional status as a proxy or have made estimates of the impact of noncommunicable diseases by simply adding up known risks of individual diet factors. Both these methods have problems. This paper proposes a new methodology, taking advantage of recent, more holistic, measures of diet quality. Preliminary regression results are presented using cross-country data and the Global Dietary Recommendations Score and Minimum Dietary Diversity for women. The results suggest that diet quality variables generally have the expected signs, but there are also clear limitations of using cross-country data. The methodology could be applied in future to a limited number of broadly representative low- and middle-income countries data sets containing both diet recall data as well as measures of noncommunicable disease risk status. The analysis suggests that this work could inform policies such as the repurposing of existing agrifood policies to complement existing public health policies, to reduce the economic and health burdens imposed by unhealthy diets
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Ghana assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Ghana perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ghana on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Ghana; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Ghana; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Ghana; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Ghana
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Serbia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Serbia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Serbia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Serbia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Serbia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Serbia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Serbia
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Guinea perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Guinea on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Guinea; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Guinea; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Guinea; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Guinea
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragility ; CPE ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Drought and Climate Shocks ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mavroeconomic Vulnerabilities ; Unsustainable Development ; Weak Business Environment
    Abstract: The objective of this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) is to assess how well the World Bank Group supported Ethiopia in addressing key challenges that constrained its development and how that support adapted over time to respond to changing circumstances, an evolving relationship, and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover fiscal years (FY)13-23. The time period is selected to include the last two Bank Group strategies to support Ethiopia and coincides with the period of theprevious two political administrations. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group-supported Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia expected in FY25
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Saudi Arabia ; Women ; Women and Labor
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Average growthin the GCC surpassed 7 percent in 2022 led by Saudi Arabia, its biggest economy, which was globally the fastest growing large economy. This growth was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil sectors. The latter was the result of persistent structural reforms undertaken by several GCC countries to improve the investment environment, promote flexible labor markets, and encourage women to join the labor market. GCC countries have used the windfall revenues from oil and gas to rebuild their buffers, pay down their debt, and shore-up their sovereign wealth funds. They have also sought to protect their vulnerable populations with continued subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities. Such policies have limited the impact of inflation on the domestic economy. Finally, GCC countries have also used their financial muscle to support economically weaker countries in the region. The stellar growth of 2022 is slowing down and growth is expected to moderate to 1 percent in 2023 before picking up again to 3.6 percent in 2024. The decline in economic activity in 2023 is driven by consecutive production cut decisions by OPEC+ in an effort to stabilize global oil prices. However, non-oil GDP continues its growth trajectory reaching 3.9 percent, resulting weaker integration between oil and non-oil sectors. To maintain this track record, GCC countries will need to continue to exercise prudent macroeconomic management, stay the course with structural reforms, and increase non-oil exports. Downside risks remain and it would be amiss not to mention them. The conflict in the Middle East presents major risks to the region and the GCC outlook if it extends or expands to include other regional players. While it is too early to quantify the impact and channels of the conflict, we already witness a 4 percentsurge in global oil futures. Although China is bouncing back after emerging from tight Covid-19 lockdowns, troubles in the real estate sector could still disrupt this trajectory. Persistent high inflation in the world's major economies has not been entirely vanquishedsuggesting a high interest rate environment for a longer period. Windfall revenues are anticipated as a result of higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a pivotal role in determining economicramifications not only on energy markets but also on regional financial and trade markets and overall economic confidence. The Special Focus section of the report discusses the power of structural reforms and social norms in advancing female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia experienced an unprecedented surge in female labor force participation since 2016 as a result of: (i) changing regulations and the removal of legal barriers, shifting social norms, (ii) the implementation of sound structural reforms and (iii) effective government communications. Saudi Arabia's success in increasing female labor force participation from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36 percent in 2023 offers important lessons to other countries in the region and the world
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Health Sector Review
    Keywords: Health Economics and Finance ; Health Sector ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Financing ; Investments ; Ukraine
    Abstract: The full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine has immense local impact and global consequences. Ukraine is experiencing huge human and economic suffering, which will have long-lasting effects. This war has been particularly devastating for the Ukrainian health sector, tremendously increasing the urgent need for specific services and simultaneously obstructing health outcomes and access to health care due to hostilities, disruption of service delivery, and damage and destruction of health facilities. Moreover, the recovery of Ukraine is shrouded in uncertainty as the duration of the ongoing war and the frequency and localization of the attacks are unknown, all occurring against the backdrop of economic challenges within the country and at a global scale. Despite an expected international effort to finance the recovery of Ukraine akin to the Marshall Plan, financial resources may not be easily available or may become more scarce and more expensive. Investments will receive more scrutiny, and competition for funds will increase due to monetary tightening, rising interest rates, and possibly sustained high inflation (International Monetary Fund 2022). However, in the short to medium term, Ukraine is expected to have favorable access to international financing on concessional terms. While Ukraine is struggling with the gruesome immediate impact of the war and a fight for survival, the shared understanding emerges that going back to business as usual will neither be possible nor desirable. This moment may also serve as a window of opportunity for rapid reform and innovation of health service delivery in Ukraine. Improving and reconstructing services while restoring and stabilizing them is critical to aiding a suffering population and to laying strong foundations of governance that will have lasting impacts into the country's future. This document provides a proposal for stakeholdersin the Ukrainian health sector on how service delivery may need to change, how to deal with this change, and how the health sector may come out stronger in the longer term. It focuses on the organization of health care service delivery and shares considerations of how it may develop using a long-term (10+ years) perspective
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Fiscal Capacity Estimation ; Fiscal Policy ; Intergovernmental Transfers ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subnational Tax Effort ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper discusses the application of the conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation using Indonesia's existing macroeconomic indicators. The authors find that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, and urbanization rate are good predictors for most tax sources. These three indicators also predicted the total district's OSRs well, providing an empirical foundation for an aggregated macro-based model to estimate all OSRs using the abovementioned variables. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 1 provides a description of Indonesia's system of intergovernmental transfers and subnational taxation. It shows subnational fiscal reliance on transfers rather than OSRs. Section 2 makes the case for reforming the DAU formula and explains recent efforts by the Government of Indonesia on that front. Section 3 discusses the limited existing empirical literature on estimating potential revenues for transfers formula. Section 4 explains and applies our conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation. It also provides the empirical justification to use an aggregated approach to estimation rather than estimating each individual tax base. Section 5 applies the aggregated approach to estimating potential revenues. Section 6 discusses the equity implications and makes the case for using district fixed effects. Finally, section 7 provides a conclusion of this paper
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Health Sector Review
    Keywords: Governance ; Health Insurance ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; PHC ; Primary Health Care Performance ; Vital Signs Profile
    Abstract: This report presents the findings of the Vital Signs Profile (VSP) assessment conducted by the World Bank and the Primary Health Care Performance Initiative (PHCPI) in collaboration with Fiji's Ministry of Health and Medical Services (MHMS). The VSP provides an opportunity to assess the state of the primary health care (PHC) system in Fiji, highlighting areas of strength and challenges through the lens of the PHCPI framework. The framework organizes various domains and subdomains of primary health care using a logic model approach that encompasses the traditional inputs and outputs of PHC systems and emphasizes the capacity and processes of PHC service delivery and performance. Notably, while PHCPI recognizes the role of social determinants of health and intersectoral health promotion and prevention efforts as important factors influencing population health, the VSP is primarily focused on aspects of health service delivery. Fiji is one of four Pacific countries - alongside Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Solomon Islands that have, with support of the World Bank, used PHCPI tools to take stock of current performance, safeguard what works well, and lay out a vision for areas requiring improvement
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Kenya assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Kenya perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Kenya on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Kenya; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Kenya; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Kenya; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Kenya
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Economic Development ; Energy Prices ; Growth and Real Sector ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pandemic and weak global trade has particularly impacted Thailand due to the country's position as a trade and tourism hub. Thailand's tourism arrivals reached only 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels in September despite the ongoing growth in global services trade. Visitor numbers increased across the board, except for China and Japan which are experiencing economic slowdown. The economic recovery faltered due to global headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2023 Q3, well below expectations. Thailand has implemented a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has taken the first steps to implementing comprehensive carbon pricing. This report explores some of the complexities involved in implementing carbon pricing. It finds that Thailand has already taken some of the most difficult steps in setting up a comprehensive carbon pricing policy instrument. Important questions remain to be addressed about what form carbon pricing should take in Thailand and which economic sectors should be included in a carbon pricing scheme. The potential benefits from carbon pricing may be substantial. Carbon pricing is likely to play an important role in meeting future emission reduction targets, reducing environmental degradation and air pollution while positioning Thailand as a regional leader in green and sustainable growth
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cho, Yoonyoung The Importance of Existing Social Protection Programs for Mental Health in Pandemic Times
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Depression and Pandemic ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Mental Health ; Mental Health Crisis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: When it comes to mental health, do social protection programs matter more in times of crisis Using panel data from the Philippines around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study compares depression rates among beneficiaries of an existing conditional cash transfer program to those of non-beneficiaries of similar socioeconomic status. Depression rates were almost identical for the two groups in late 2019, but significantly lower for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries by July 2020, after the initiation of strict quarantine measures and a large emergency cash transfer program. One interpretation of the increased importance of the conditional cash transfer program during the pandemic is that these transfers have larger protective effects in times of vulnerability. Another possible reason is that the existing infrastructure of the program, by allowing for more timely distribution of the emergency cash, enhanced the effectiveness of the government's pandemic response for conditional cash transfer beneficiaries. This paper finds evidence supporting both explanations
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Health Sector Review
    Keywords: Health Insurance ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; KIRIBATI ; PHP ; PHPCPI ; Vital Signs Profile
    Abstract: The assessment of Kiribati's primary health care (PHC) system, carried out by the World Bank in collaboration with the Government of Kiribati under the Primary Health Care Performance Initiative (PHCPI), marks a unique opportunity to identify the system's strengths and gaps and to catalyze further improvements. The PHCPI tools, including the Vital Signs Profile (VSP) methodology, provide important insights into the country's PHC system and generate actionable policy recommendations for improvement
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Access To Education ; Agriculture ; Climate Change Impact ; Covid-19 Impact ; Education ; Food Security ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital Accumulation and Utilization ; Inclusive Development ; Long-Term Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This report is undertaken as a part of the Human Capital Project (HCP), a globalinitiative of the World Bank Group that aims to increase governments' awarenessof the importance of investing in people (World Bank date of publication not identifiedb). One of the maincomponents of the HCP is a cross-country metric--the Human Capital Index (HCI). The HCI estimates the amount of human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate by the age of 18, thus highlighting how current health and education outcomes shape the work productivity of the next generation. Moreover, given the cumulative nature of human capital, the HCI has clear milestones across the entire human life cycle: at birth, children need to survive; during childhood, they need to be well-nourished; at school age, they must complete all schooling and active adequate learning levels; and in adulthood, they need to stay in good health. Finally, the HCI includes a result: a score that ranges from 0 to 1. A country where an average child has virtually no risk of being stunted or dying before age five, receives high-quality education, and becomes a healthy adult, would have an HCI close to 1. Conversely, when the risk of being ill-nourished or prematurely dying is high, access to education is limited, and the quality of learning is low, the HCI would approach zero
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Zimbabwe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Zimbabwe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Zimbabwe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Zimbabwe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Zimbabwe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Zimbabwe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Zimbabwe
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Health Sector Review
    Keywords: Access and Coverage ; Equity ; Financing ; Health Insurance ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; PHCPI Framework ; PHP ; Quality
    Abstract: This report presents the findings of the primary health care (PHC) system in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), an assessment that the World Bank conducted in consultation with the Ministry of Health and Human Services (MHHS) of the government of RMI. The assessment provides an opportunity to understand the performance of RMI's PHC system, highlighting important areas of strengths and opportunities to address ongoing challenges. The assessment uses the Primary Health Care Performance Initiative (PHCPI) framework, which organizes various domains and subdomains of primary care using a logic model approach that encompasses the traditional inputs and outputs of a system, emphasizing service delivery and performance
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Thomas, Alastair VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Redistribution ; Reduced Rates ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Tax Reform ; Value Added Tax (VAT)
    Abstract: Most countries' value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and (to a lesser extent) social and cultural objectives. This paper assesses the case for applying reduced VAT rates, with a particular focus on OECD countries where reduced rates feature prominently. It examines both the theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as practical considerations, and concludes that the case for reduced VAT rates is weak. In particular, the optimal indirect tax literature finds no redistributive role for reduced VAT rates when other more direct instruments are available. These theoretical findings are supported by the empirical literature that shows reduced VAT rates to be a poorly targeted means of supporting lower income households, particularly when compared to targeted cash transfer programs. Similarly, reduced VAT rates are unlikely to be a well-targeted way to encourage consumption of merit goods, while they also create significant administrative complexity. These findings have significant implications for tax reform in both developed and developing economies. In particular, where countries have the administrative capacity to implement effectively targeted cash transfer programs, they should use these programs to support poorer households instead of reduced VAT rates
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Early Childhood ; Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Protection ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Strengths and Gaps
    Abstract: This human capital review assesses human capital outcomes in Mauritania and identifies actions to strengthen, utilize, and protect human capital. The government of Mauritania has demonstrated a strong commitment to placing human capital at the forefront of its long-term vision, with dedicated efforts focused on enhancing childhood health and education outcomes. Despite Mauritania's positive initiatives, the country's human capital wealth per capita has declined over the last 20 years; and it is imperative to look at ways to quickly reverse this situation. Children born today in Mauritania will only be 38 percent as productive when they grow up as they could have been had they enjoyed complete education and full health. Increasing the productivity of Mauritanians--both men and women--and thus allowing them to fully contribute to the development of their society entails transforming the human capital challenge to a human capital opportunity. This report takes a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach and proposes recommendations for building, protecting, and utilizing human capital in Mauritania
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mongolia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mongolia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mongolia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mongolia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mongolia
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CEMAC ; Country Level ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. The Economic Barometer also includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition's special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to take better advantage of future commodity price booms
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gascoigne, Jon The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change and Health ; Draught ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Consumption ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Social Development ; Social Protection and Climate Change
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of drought on household consumption for five main agroecological zones in Africa, developing vulnerability (or damage) functions of the relationship between rainfall deficits and poverty. Damage functions are a key element in models that quantify the risk of extreme weather and the impacts of climate change. Although these functions are commonly estimated for storm or flood damages to buildings, they are less often available for income losses from droughts. The paper takes a regional approach to the analysis, developing standardized hazard definitions and methods for matching hazard and household data, allowing survey data from close to 100,000 households to be used in the analysis. The damage functions are used to quantify the impact of historical weather conditions on poverty for eight countries, highlighting the risk to poverty outcomes that weather variability causes. National poverty rates are 1-12 percent higher, depending on the country, under the worst weather conditions relative to the best conditions observed in the past 13 years. This amounts to an increase in the total poverty gap that ranges from USD 4 million to USD 2.4 billion (2011 purchasing power parity)
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Jamaica assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Jamaica perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Jamaica on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Jamaica; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Jamaica; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Jamaica; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Jamaica
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demand Shortfalls ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Growth ; Inflation ; Investment Shifts ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Property Sector
    Abstract: Economic activity in China has picked up in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.2 percent y/y in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. The initial phase of economic reopening triggered a surge in economic activity in Q1, but growth momentum decelerated rapidly in Q2 before recovering modestly in Q3. The volatile growth performance, compounded by persistent deflationary pressures and still weak consumer confidence, suggests continued fragility in the recovery. China's investment deceleration has been one of the key drivers of the overall growth slowdown in recent years. Together with the decline in aggregate investment growth, there has been a marked shift in the composition of investment. Structural reforms are crucial both to accelerate rebalancing towards higher consumption and to mitigate risks of inefficiencies in capital allocation. Following recent statements by policymakers, a renewed focus on structural reform implementation with specific measures strengthening the rule of law, independent enforcement of regulations, fostering competition, and ensuring a level-playing field could help ensure that resources are allocated to the most productive sectors and firms. Deepening financial sector reform will enhance market-based financial intermediation. Measures to improve the progressivity of the fiscal system, reform the hukou system, and foster inclusive finance will support household consumption growth
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mali assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mali perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mali on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mali; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mali; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mali; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mali
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Effectiveness ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Sao Tome and Principe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Sao Tome and Principe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Sao Tome and Principe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Sao Tome and Principe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Sao Tome and Principe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Sao Tome and Principe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Sao Tome and Principe
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  • 36
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Montenegro assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Montenegro perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Montenegro on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Montenegro; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Montenegro; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Montenegro; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Montenegro
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Law ; Gender Based Violence ; Gender Equality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nonextractive Sectors ; Resilience
    Abstract: Papua New Guinea has abundant resources in the form of oil and mineral wealth. But a complex set of factors, including systemic gender inequality, underinvestment in non-extractive sectors, and fragility compounded by vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards act as barriers to sustainable and inclusive growth of the country. This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) report assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group support to Papua New Guinea between fiscal year FY08 and FY23. It assesses the Bank Group's development effectiveness in addressing the above three core themes, namely: (i) lack of investment in Papua New Guinea's non-extractive sectors and their poor performance, (ii) the economic exclusion of women and gender-based violence (GBV) issues associated with it, and (iii) unmitigated risks of disaster from natural hazards, and violence, and conflict. The report answers three specific questions. The first explores the extent to which the Bank Group adapted its engagement in line with key constraints, including in relation to development partners, changes in country context, and lessons from experience. The second focuses on the results of Bank Group support and explanatory factors for results under each them, answered by applying a gender lens where relevant. The third question explores the extent to which the Bank Group successfully identified and addressed conflict, violence, and disaster from natural hazards risks. The report offers key lessons to inform the World Bank Group's future engagement with the country: (i) Data gaps need to be addressed to inform sound policy making and effective programming in Papua New Guinea. (ii) Declining governance quality and increasing bilateral aid will require the World Bank to reassess how it supports key policy reforms to achieve development impact, including through using DPOs. (iii) The Bank Group could elevate its impact on gender equality and GBV by shifting from a project-centric approach to a strategic country engagement approach. (iv) The negative effects that compound and interrelated risks pose to achieving development aims need to be addressed more comprehensively
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Decerf, Benoit Lives, Livelihoods, and Learning: A Global Perspective on the Well-Being Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Keywords: Communicable Diseases ; Covid ; Education ; Health and Poverty ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Learning ; Mortality ; Poverty ; School Health ; Welfare
    Abstract: This study compares the magnitude of national level losses that the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted across three critical dimensions: loss of life, loss of income, and loss of learning. The well-being consequences of excess mortality are expressed in years of life lost, while those of income losses and school closures are expressed in additional years spent in poverty (as measured by national poverty lines), either currently or in the future. While 2020-21 witnessed a global drop in life expectancy and the largest one-year increase in global poverty in many decades, widespread school closures may cause almost twice as large an increase in future poverty. The estimates of well-being loss for the average global citizen include a loss of almost three weeks of life (19 days), an additional two and half weeks spent in poverty in 2020 and 2021 (17 days), and the possibility of an additional month of life in poverty in the future due to school closures (31 days). Well-being losses are not equitably distributed across countries. The typical high-income country suffered more total years of life lost than additional years in poverty, while the opposite holds for the typical low- or middle-income country. Aggregating total losses requires the valuation of a year of life lost vis-a-vis an additional year spent in poverty. If a year of life lost is valued at five or fewer additional years spent in poverty, low-income countries suffered greater total well-being loss than high-income countries. For a wide range of valuations, the greatest well-being losses fell on upper-middle-income countries and countries in the Latin America region. This set of countries suffered the largest mortality costs as well as large losses in learning and sharp increases in poverty
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (67 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Boulhane, Othmane Empowering Adolescent Girls through Safe Spaces and Accompanying Measures in Cote D'Ivoire
    Keywords: Adolescent Girls ; Clubs ; Family Planning Research ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Education ; Gender and Health ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Husbands ; Income-Generating Activities ; Law and Development ; Randomized Experiment ; Safe Spaces
    Abstract: This study uses a cluster-randomized controlled trial to investigate the effects of a large-scale women and girls empowerment program on sexual and reproductive health and empowerment outcomes in Cote d'Ivoire. The study assesses and compares the impact of diverse strategies aimed at equipping girls with life skills and sexual and reproductive health knowledge, provided through well-established safe spaces, in isolation or in combination with livelihood support interventions, or with initiatives designed to engage boys and men and community and religious leaders. The findings show that one year after the end of the interventions, safe spaces alone have a moderate impact on girls' empowerment, while safe spaces combined with husbands' and future husbands' clubs are the most impactful. Combining safe spaces with livelihood support interventions leads to improvements in adolescent girls' employment outcomes, as expected. Finally, the findings show that engaging leaders in the context of safe spaces interventions yields mixed results on girls' empowerment
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  • 40
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Fiji assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Fiji perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Fiji on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Fiji; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Fiji; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Fiji; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Fiji
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  • 41
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Health Study
    Keywords: CHVA ; Climate and Health ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Climate Change and Health ; Climate Change Impacts ; Environment ; Health Risks ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Vulnerability
    Abstract: The objective of this Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment (CHVA) is to assist decision-makers in Colombia with planning effective adaptation measures to deal with climate-related health risks. This assessment includes sub-national considerations for health-related climate action (see Annex A for the methodology). Sub-national considerations are given for Colombia's 32 departments (see Figure 1). It also incorporates data from a Climate and Health Economic Valuation conducted by the World Bank to estimate of the potential economic costs of health impacts arising from projected changes in temperature and precipitation (see Annex B for the methodology). The findings from this CHVA are organized under four sections. Section I characterizes the climatology in Colombia, highlighting observed and projected climate exposures relevant to health. Section II describes key climate-related risks to health, including nutrition and food security, vector-borne diseases (VDBs), water-borne diseases, increasing temperatures, air quality, and zoonotic diseases. Section III analyzes the adaptive capacity and readiness of Colombia's health system to prevent and manage climate-related health risks. Recommendations are discussed in Section IV
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moretti, Matias Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Emerging Markets Bond Index ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Inelastic Financial Markets ; Institutional Investors ; International Capital Markets ; International Financial Markets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Small Open Economies ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment device that reduces default risk
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Gomez, Sandra Environmental Hazards, Climate, and Health in Cambodia: The Shield of Sanitation
    Keywords: Disease Control and Prevention ; Environmental Degradation ; Environmental Hazards ; Health and The Environment ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Hygiene ; Pollution ; Public Health ; Sanitation
    Abstract: Environmental degradation is the largest public health challenge of the century and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. This study undertakes a comprehensive examination of the health implications of environmental hazards in Cambodia, simultaneously addressing extreme temperatures, precipitation patterns, and air pollution. It leverages data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and satellite-derived metrics on temperature, precipitation, and fine particulate matter. The analysis identifies a positive association between temperature and the occurrence of diarrhea and cough among children and a nonlinear relationship between precipitation and these health outcomes. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that pollution significantly impacts cough incidence. To anticipate future trends, climate simulations are employed to forecast the incidence of child diarrhea in Cambodia under different climate and development scenarios. The projections indicate that diarrhea incidence could increase to 19 percent by 2040 without significant adaptation measures that would lessen the adverse impact of weather. For instance, the acceleration in toilet ownership over the last decade reduced diarrhea incidence by at least 1.2 to 1.4 percentage points. Nevertheless, the path ahead requires proactive efforts to improve sanitation and hygiene. The forecasts suggest that, without additional strategies to counter climate change's adverse effects, only universal toilet ownership would contain the climate-driven increase in diarrhea incidence expected by 2040
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Urban Study
    Keywords: Demographics and Aging ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Human Development and Gender ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Urban and Rural Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: This report begins with an Executive Summary, which introduces the territorial development approach and the rationale for applying it in Lesotho's development context before going on to summarize key takeaways and recommendations. It is followed by four chapters: chapter 1, Introduction, lays out the country context, presenting in brief Lesotho's economic and demographic situation, population projections, governmental structure, and poverty profile and the government's goals. Chapter 2, territorial development framework and analysis in Lesotho, discusses the territorial development approach, its objectives, and the challenges it aims to address before presenting a customized 2 by 2 territorial framework for Lesotho and explaining how it can be applied. Chapter 3, analyzing Lesotho's Challenges through a Territorial Lens, lays out a spatial analysis centering on four development challenges: economic opportunities, internal connectivity and regional integration, access to basic services, and climate preparedness. To highlight the challenges, the chapter includes 4D heat maps linked to density, distance, disparity, and disaster risk. It also summaries case studies and real-life applications of the territorial development approach in Lesotho. Full case studies are in an annex. Chapter 4, recommendations, covers guiding principles and recommendations based on the territorial development approach and analysis
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic, Talip Recording the Time Divide: A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement
    Keywords: Cellular Phones ; Commercial Recall ; Consumption ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Telecommunications ; Usage Monitoring
    Abstract: Based on a randomized survey experiment in Malawi, this study examines how innovative techniques in time use data collection could sidestep measurement concerns with traditional recall-based time use measurement. The experiment assigns random samples of households, and adult men and women within, to one of two treatment arms on time use measurement: a traditional 24-hour recall time use diary, and a self-administered smartphone-based pictorial time diary, known as the TimeTracker app, for real-time data collection. Compared to the recall arm, participation in employment and unpaid domestic and care work is shown to be higher in the smartphone arm for both men and women. The resulting estimates of gender gaps, while continuing to be large, are narrower in the smartphone arm, except for care work where the estimated gender gap increases. The recall treatment leads to substantial underreporting of activities after 6 pm, which otherwise accounts for nearly 30 percent of daily reported time in the smartphone arm. Likewise, the extent of simultaneous activities, particularly among women, is markedly lower in the recall arm. The overall reported time is, however, higher in the recall arm due to the minimum 15-minute duration that was used for recording activities the 24-hour recall diary, while over one-third of activities lasted less than 15 minutes in the smartphone arm. The analysis also shows that using stylized time use questions with a 7-day recall, as opposed to a 24-hour recall diary, results in an even greater overestimation of reported time in employment and unpaid work
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  • 46
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Uzbekistan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Uzbekistan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Uzbekistan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Uzbekistan
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Environment ; IDA19 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rating System ; Resilience ; RRS
    Abstract: In response to the growing recognition that measuring inputs, such as climate finance, is not enough to capture the impacts of investments, the World Bank Group developed the Resilience Rating System (RRS). Developed over a two-year, multi-sectoral consultative process through close collaboration with internal and external actors, the RRS methodology aims to guide investment decisions and improve climate resilience in project design and outcomes. The methodology report is publicly available. The RRS evaluates and rates investment projects from C to A+, based on their resilience attributes in two complementary dimensions. The resilience of rating considers a project's design, reflecting the confidence that it will achieve its expected objectives and maximize development benefits in the face of climate and disaster risks. The resilience through rating considers a project's outcomes and reflects its contribution to improving climate resilience in the broader community, sector and systems, and to driving transformational adaptation. Combining the two dimension ratings provides an overall project rating, from CC to A+A+
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  • 48
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Azerbaijan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Azerbaijan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Azerbaijan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Azerbaijan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Azerbaijan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Azerbaijan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Azerbaijan
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  • 49
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in the Kyrgyz Republic assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in the Kyrgyz Republic perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic on 1) their views regarding the general environment in the Kyrgyz Republic; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in the Kyrgyz Republic; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in the Kyrgyz Republic
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Health Sector Review
    Keywords: Financial Protection ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; SDI ; Service Quality ; Systems and Tools ; Workforce
    Abstract: The Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) health survey in Moldova serves as a vital tool for assessing and benchmarking the performance of health service delivery. Its primary aim is to evaluate the quality of basic health services. This comprehensive evaluation enables both governments and service providers to pinpoint deficiencies and bottlenecks in health service delivery, monitor progress over time, and make cross-country comparisons. The widespread availability of and public awareness about SDI indicators foster engagement among policy makers, citizens, service providers, donors, and stakeholders, in turn driving efforts to enhance service quality and ultimately development outcomes
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Education ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Risks ; Footprint ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Oil Revenue ; Quasi-Fiscal Activities ; SNG
    Abstract: The first three chapters of the PFR review the core fiscal policy and revenue mobilization issues. Chapter 1 discusses the fiscal landscape, fiscal framework, and progressivity of fiscal policy. Chapter 2 looks at the footprint of quasi-fiscal activities, which affects the overall fiscal stance and exposes certain fiscal risks. Chapter 3 discusses the stagnation in non-oil revenue and collection across taxes and outlines reform options to improve the tax regime. This PFR also covers education and social protection spending, constituting about 42 percent of generalgovernment budget spending, and is critical for Kazakhstan's social agenda and long-term development goals. Chapter 4 analyzes the efficiency of public spending on education, discusses challenges in delivering equitable access to quality education, and offers options for enhancing spending effectiveness through institutional and policy changes. Chapter 5 discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of spending on the social protection system, particularly the coverage and targeting of social assistance programs, issues in implementing active labor market programs, and challenges in delivering social insurance. Because of data constraints, this PFR excludes analysis on social benefits, pensions, and the State Social Insurance Fund. The last two chapters cover the core system of public-finance management issues on budgeting and inter-governmental fiscal relations. Chapter 6 considers options for further improving budgeting, planning, and monitoring to deliver better fiscal outcomes for inclusive and resilient growth. While Chapter 7 examines emerging subnational fiscal issues and options to simplify and improve certainty in the transfer mechanism from central to SNGs and within the SNG hierarchy
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Seuyong, Feraud Tchuisseu Who did Covid-19 Hurt the Most in Sub-Saharan Africa?
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Distributional Impacts ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population
    Abstract: How did the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic impact poor households in Sub-Saharan Africa This paper tackles this question by combining 73 High-Frequency Phone Surveys collected by national governments in 14 countries with older nationally representative surveys containing information on household consumption. In particular, it examines how outcomes differed according to predicted per capita consumption quintiles in the first wave of the survey, and in subsequent waves by households' predicted per capita consumption. The initial shock affected households throughout the predicted welfare distribution. Households in the bottom 40 percent responded by sharply increasing farming activities between May and July of 2020 and gradually increasing ownership of non-farm enterprises starting in August. This coincided with an improvement in welfare, as measured by a decline in food insecurity and distressed asset sales among these households during the second half of 2020. With respect to education, children in the bottom quintile were 15 percentage points less likely to engage in learning activities than those in the top quintile in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, and the engagement gap between the bottom 40 and top 60 widened in the summer before narrowing in the fall due to large declines in engagement among the top 60. Poorer households were slightly more likely to report receiving public assistance immediately following the shock, and this difference changed little over the course of 2020. The results highlight the widespread impacts of the crisis both on welfare and children's educational engagement, the importance of agriculture and household non-farm enterprises as safety nets for the poor, and the substantial recovery made by the poorest households in the year following the crisis
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (69 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Del Carmen, Giselle Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras
    Keywords: Administrative Registries ; Econometrics ; Economic Development ; Honduras ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Top Income
    Abstract: This paper presents distributional national accounts for Honduras over 2003-2019, using survey microdata, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. The estimates suggest a high and persistent inequality in the country: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of the total income over the period, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Undistributed corporate profits are the overwhelming income source at the very top of the distribution, highlighting its importance in the measurement of income inequality. Finally, using a panel of tax records, the paper also documents that not only is inequality persistent, but the same individuals are often observed at the top, suggesting that the observed inequality has deep roots
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business Environment ; E-Government ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Governance ; Innovation and Technology Privacy ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The Chinese government has a long-standing commitment to business environment and digital government reforms. China's online government-to-business (G2B) services have enhanced public service efficiency, accessibility, and transparency, creating a more favorable business environment. This note features a case study of the all-in-one online government service platform developed in Zhejiang Province, a subnational leader in promoting e-government and business environment reforms. Following general national guidelines, Zhejiang has been a leader in exploring innovations to promote digital government development and business environment reforms. Its reforms both demonstrate the effectiveness of a proactive approach to leveraging digital technologies for administrative efficiency and an improved user experience and highlight the positive impacts on the business environment
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Turkiye assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Turkiye perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Turkiye on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Turkiye; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Turkiye; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Turkiye; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Turkiye
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  • 58
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chen, Yutong Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use: Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program
    Keywords: Difference in Differences Specifications ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Labor Supply ; Low Skilled Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Cost ; Travel Subsidies ; Unemployed Women ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper estimates a synthetic difference-in-differences specification on the roll-out of a program providing free bus transit for women in several Indian states, to examine the impact on women's time allocation and labor supply. Household expenditures on buses fall and women save time on travel. However, there is substantial heterogeneity. Skilled employed women increase labor supply and reduce time on household chores. Low-skilled married women increase time on household activities and reduce labor supply. Unemployed women increase job search with no effect on employment. The findings show that gender roles within households undermine the effect of gender-specific travel subsidies on female labor supply
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  • 60
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Giuliano, Fernando The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Shocks ; Droughts ; Econometrics ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Environmental Disasters and Degradation ; Floods ; Macro-Structural Model ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Uruguay is an economy that is vulnerable to precipitation patterns, as evidenced during the country's historic 2022/23 drought. Yet, and despite its rich macroeconomic and climate data environment, the country does not have a consistent macroeconomic model to address the aggregate impact of climate shocks, let alone the expected additional impact from climate change. This paper intends to fill this gap by integrating climate shocks into the World Bank's Macro-Fiscal Model, its workhorse structural macroeconomic projection model. Building on existing country studies on the sectoral effects of droughts and floods, the analysis finds that the volatility of a simulated Uruguayan economy only subject to historical climate shocks reaches 22 percent of the historical volatility of gross domestic product. Moreover, as climate shocks are only one of many shocks that can simultaneously affect an economy, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic shocks into historical climate shocks exacerbates volatility and increases potential losses. Gross domestic product can fall by 2.3 percent under a combined negative climate and macroeconomic shock of the type witnessed once every six years on average, and 4.1 percent under a once-in-40-years combined negative shock. Climate change compounds these effects going forward, worsening the magnitude of the downside risks from droughts by between 18 and 30 percent, although estimates incorporating climate change are subject to large uncertainty. The order of magnitude of these effects calls for a more systematic consideration of climate shocks in macroeconomic projections and fiscal risk assessments for Uruguay
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambel, Alemayehu A Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net?
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gap ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women and Tax ; Women Run Businesses
    Abstract: This study investigates gender disparities in the tax burden in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using data on 2,320 taxpayers for 2011 and 2012. A quantile regression analysis is employed to control for firm characteristics such as sector, size, and age. The results show that women-owned businesses are more likely to operate in low-profit sectors and report lower sales and tax liabilities than men-owned businesses. However, women-owned businesses pay as much as men-owned businesses in taxes, suggesting that they are subject to a higher effective tax rate. This, in turn, may lead to women-owned businesses exiting the tax net at a higher rate. These findings suggest that gender disparities in tax compliance are not simply due to differences in firm characteristics but may also be due to biases in tax declaration and enforcement processes
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hutton, Guy Costs of Health Care Associated Infections from Inadequate Water and Sanitation in Health Care Facilities in Eastern and Southern Africa
    Keywords: Disease Control and Prevention ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Healthcare Associated Infections ; Healthcare Facilities ; Healthcare Waste Management ; Hygiene
    Abstract: In Sub-Saharan Africa, health care facilities face critical challenges in water supply, sanitation, and hygiene services; health care waste management; and environmental cleanliness. With coverage below 50 percent, these deficiencies pose significant health risks to patients and health care workers, contributing to health care-associated infections. Meta-analyses and individual studies estimate rates of health care-associated infections in Sub-Saharan Africa at between 13 and 30 percent of hospital admissions, impacting patients, families, and health care providers. Rising antimicrobial resistance further exacerbates health outcomes and costs. In Eastern and Southern Africa, an estimated 3.1 million health care-associated infections in 2022 incurred over 320,000 excess deaths, costing at least US
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Madrigal Correa, Alma Lucia Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines
    Keywords: Ancestral Domains ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict Data Monitor ; Indigenous Peoples ; Indigenous Peoples Law ; Land Titling ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mindano ; Political Economy ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Islamaj, Ergys The Sovereign Spread Compressing Effect of Fiscal Rules during Global Crises
    Keywords: Communicable Diseases ; Covid-19 Crisis ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Rules ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics and Trade ; International Financial Markets ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Sovereign Spreads
    Abstract: Do fiscal rules help suppress sovereign spreads during periods of global financial stress Yes! This paper examines whether fiscal rules contribute to mitigating sovereign spreads in emerging markets and developing economies during periods of heightened financial and economic volatility worldwide. It finds that the presence of fiscal rules is statistically significantly associated with lower sovereign spreads during the COVID-19 crisis -- about 350 basis points lower on average. Interestingly, this correlation persists even when nations deviate from these rules, indicating an expectation of post-crisis compliance. The study shows that deviations from fiscal rules are typically short-lived, with fiscal balance rules reinstated within 3.5 years. Robustness checks, including controls for institutional quality, fiscal rule strength, and global and regional factors confirm these results. Overall, the findings suggest that fiscal rules can help emerging markets and developing economies signal fiscal responsibility during episodes of global financial stress, reducing borrowing costs relative to countries without fiscal rules
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Algeria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Algeria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Algeria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Algeria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Algeria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Algeria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Algeria
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Cabo Verde assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Cabo Verde perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Cabo Verde on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Cabo Verde; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Cabo Verde; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Cabo Verde; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Cabo Verde
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Donfouet, Hermann Pythagore Pierre Mortality Costs of and Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Cote D'ivoire
    Keywords: Communicable Diseases ; Covid-19 Pandemic ; Demographics ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Value of Statistical Life
    Abstract: Cote d'Ivoire, the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union, was hit by COVID-19, which claimed many lives. This paper estimates COVID-19 mortality costs over time using the value of a statistical life. Using a more conservative estimate of the value of a statistical life income elasticity ranging from 1 to 1.4, the overall COVID-19 mortality costs in Cote d'Ivoire since the pandemic range from USD 100.4 million to USD 284.3 million. Considering age-related adjustments, a 3 percent discount rate, and a value of a statistical life income elasticity of 1 to 1.4, the COVID-19 costs range from USD 5.4 million to USD 15.3 million. Similarly, the COVID-19 mortality costs range from USD 6.8 million to USD 19.3 million with a 5 percent discount rate and a value of a statistical life income elasticity of 1 to 1.4. More significantly, the findings suggest that COVID-19 mortality costs started to decline in 2021. To enhance prevention, preparedness, and response to future pandemics, policy makers could consider allocating pandemic funding within national budgets. Exploring potential partnerships with philanthropic organizations and international entities could further enhance domestic resource matching efforts
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Komatsu, Hitomi Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Female Entrepreneurs ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Governments often use simplified business tax systems, such as presumptive tax regimes, to register and tax small and microenterprises. Despite concerns about how such regimes could disproportionately affect female-owned and low-revenue entrepreneurs, there is a lack of empirical analysis examining the tax burden. The presumptive tax in Ethiopia has a complex assessment system, where the tax liabilities are determined according to the activity type and turnover (99 activities and 19 turnover bands), and some activities do not have a tax-free threshold. This paper uses two rounds of data in the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Surveys and the tax code to analyze the equity and gender implications of the presumptive tax on small and microenterprises by imputing the effective tax rates. There are three key findings. First, the effective tax rates are higher for businesses in the lowest quartile at 4.3 percent of turnover compared to 1.5 percent for businesses in the highest quartile, using the most recent survey, resulting in a regressive system. Second, male-owned businesses tend to operate in sectors without a tax-free threshold and are more likely than female-owned businesses to face higher tax rates. Third, the effective tax rates are high for businesses in food and beverage services, which is female-dominated, and for transit services, which is male-dominated, due to the lack of a tax-free threshold for these sectors. The study finds that an alternative presumptive tax system with a single tax rate on turnover and an exemption for all low-revenue businesses would be simpler for tax assessment and more progressive
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pullinger, John Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Statistical System ; Statistical Capacity ; Statistical Capacity Index ; Statistical Indicators ; Statistical Performance
    Abstract: Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. This paper offers the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. It compares the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index with other widely used indexes, such as the Open Data Inventory index, the Global Data Barometer index, and other regional and self-assessment tools. The findings show that each index brings advantages in data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of countries and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. The Open Data Inventory index covers the most countries, the Global Data Barometer index collects data through its surveys, and the Statistical Performance Indicators and Index offer a broader framework for assessing statistical systems. The paper offers further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions for development
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
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  • 74
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Co-Evolutionary Framework ; Diversification ; Economic Growth ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Principle Of Relatedness ; Technology-Based
    Abstract: This research examines the diversification process by conceptualizing a co-evolutionary framework linking production and technology. The study applies the framework to retrospectively explain Korea's successful diversification path and to Viet Nam to identify how the country could further diversify into complex and value-added products. The authors apply relatedness analysis leveraging patent and trade data and present four different types of diversification patterns, namely unrelated diversification, production-based diversification, technology-based diversification, and complex diversification. Developed countries including Korea shifted toward technology-based or complex diversification strategies as their economies developed. Using a simulated scenario approach, the report outlines potential future trajectories wherein Viet Nam attains technological capabilities. The result shows that Viet Nam can diversify into 233 products if it accumulates capabilities in the 12 identified technologies. The report concludes with policy lessons that could inform policy makers in Viet Nam as well as other developing economies. Namely, that the country would need to invest more intensively in technology and capabilities upgrading to diversify into new complex products and evolve its diversification strategy alongside its economic growth and capability building process
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bou-Habib, Chadi Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019
    Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Crisis ; External Shock ; Famine ; General Equilibrium Simulation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mount Lebanon ; Natural Disaster
    Abstract: This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020
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  • 76
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demographics ; Family Planning Research ; Female Education ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; High Fertility Rates ; High Population Growth ; Human Capital ; Mortality ; Population Policies ; Women's Agency
    Abstract: Tanzania has managed to sustain its growth momentum despite the intensifying effects of climate change. While Tanzania's economy continues to expand, recent growth has been concentrated in sectors that employ few workers from poor households, limiting its impact on poverty. The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has implemented an effective monetary policy designed to curb inflation and alleviate mounting short-term demand pressure on foreign exchange. While Tanzania's recovery continues to accelerate, several serious threats cloud its economic outlook. Key risks include the slow or incomplete implementation of structural reforms, the damaging effects of climate change on the agriculture and tourism sectors, and the possibility of a global recession caused by fiscal and monetary policy tightening in advanced economies and major EMDEs. To mitigate these risks, policymakers must accelerate structural reforms as part of a sustained effort to attract greater private investment and spur resilient and inclusive private-sector-led growth. Over the longer term, one of the country's key challenges will be to complete its structural economic transformation, which will require creating a more favorable business climate to support the growth of the industrial and services sectors while boosting agricultural productivity. Another key long-term growth challenge will be achieving more balanced and inclusive growth
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Demographics ; Early Childhood Development ; Education ; Fetal and Maternal Health ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Poverty ; Government Financing ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital ; Mortality ; Nutrition Services ; Pregnancy ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This Human Capital Review (HCR) report presents an in-depth analysis of human capital indicators throughout a person's lifetime, from in utero to productive aging. By examining the various stages of human capital accumulation, the report aims to provide accurate recommendations for specific groups in Sierra Leone. Thus, the report disaggregates data whenever possible. It relies on an extensive consultative process involving various stakeholders such as Government counterparts, development partners, teachers, adolescent girls, students, private sector representatives, and local representatives. The consultation process followed a Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA) approach, which facilitates the identification and resolution of problems by local leadership. In addition, this report aims to inform the design and implementation of human capital reforms that will respond to specific challenges identified in the report
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (107 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Danon, Alice Cognitive and Socioemotional Skills in Low-Income Countries: Measurement and Associations with Schooling and Earnings
    Keywords: Cognitive Skills ; Education Investment Returns ; Income ; Labor Earnings ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migration ; Return on Investment in Schooling ; Socioemotional Skills
    Abstract: This paper assesses the reliability and validity of cognitive and socioemotional skills measures and investigates the correlation between schooling, skills acquisition, and labor earnings. The primary data from Pakistan incorporates two innovations related to measurement and sampling. On measurement, the paper develops and implements a battery of instruments intended to capture cognitive and socioemotional skills among young adults. On sampling, the paper uses a panel that follows respondents from their original rural locations in 2003 to their residences in 2018, a period over which 38 percent of the respondents left their native villages. In terms of their validity and reliability, our skills measures compare favorably to previous measurement attempts in low- and middle-income countries. The following are documented in the data: (a) more years of schooling are correlated with higher cognitive and socioemotional skills; (b) labor earnings are correlated with cognitive and socioemotional skills as well as years of schooling; and (c) the earnings-skills correlations depend on respondents' migration status. The magnitudes of the correlations between schooling and skills on the one hand and earnings and skills on the other are consistent with a widespread concern that such skills are underproduced in the schooling system
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Das, Jishnu The Prices in the Crises: What we are Learning from Twenty Years of Health Insurance in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    Keywords: Gesundheitspolitik ; Krankenversicherung ; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung ; Gesundheitsreform ; Gesundheitswesen ; Gesundheitsversorgung ; Gesundheitskosten ; Gesundheitsfinanzierung ; Adverse Selektion ; Entwicklungsländer ; Adverse Selection ; Health Care Provider Behavior ; Health Care Quality ; Health Insurance ; Health Insurance Utilization ; Health Ministries ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Medical Insurance Premiums ; Moral Hazard
    Abstract: Governments in many low- and middle-income countries are developing health insurance products as a complement to tax-funded, subsidized provision of health care through publicly operated facilities. This paper discusses two rationales for this transition. First, health insurance would boost fiscal revenues for health care, as post-treatment out-of-pocket payments to providers would be replaced by pre-treatment insurance premia to health ministries. Second, increased patient choice and carefully designed physician reimbursements would increase quality in the health care sector. This essay shows that, at best, these objectives have only been partially met. Despite evidence that health insurance has provided financial protection, consumers are not willing to pay for unsubsidized premia. Health outcomes have not improved despite an increase in utilization. The authors argue that this is not because there was no room to improve the quality of care but because behavioral responses among health care providers have systematically undermined the objectives of these insurance schemes
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  • 82
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Milivojevic, Lazar Natural Disasters and Fiscal Drought
    Keywords: Agricultural Impact ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Climate-Fiscal Nexus ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters ; Structural Resilience
    Abstract: This paper examines to what extent slowdowns in economic growth after natural disasters are accompanied by widening fiscal deficits and corresponding pressures on public debt. Empirical analysis based on exogenous measures of physical disaster intensity shows that natural disasters lead not only to output losses but also to further deterioration of countries' fiscal positions. The effects are persistent and driven by developments in emerging markets and developing economies. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used to show the propagation mechanism of an extreme event that affects agricultural productivity. The model features farmers endowed with land with time-varying productivity subject to economic and weather conditions. Simulation results illustrate the climate-fiscal nexus existence and highlight the role of structural resilience in limiting the impact of natural disasters
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  • 83
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Shrestha, Maheshwor A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Economic Development ; Growth ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Inverse-U ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migration ; Migration Hump ; Migration Patterns ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations-such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change-play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Urbina, Maria Jose Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience
    Keywords: Amnesties ; COVID 19 Impact ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Forced Migration ; Health Policy and Management ; Health Service Management and Delivery ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Refugee Pandemic Outcomes ; Refugee Resilience ; Regularization of Migrants
    Abstract: How can regularization programs improve forced migrants' resilience to shocks This paper leverages panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more resilient and less affected by the pandemic than similar but non-eligible forced migrants. The results indicate that access to the program promoted better health access for eligible migrants, facilitating adherence to prevention guidelines and increasing detection rates. Additionally, eligible migrants had better housing and labor conditions, relative to non-eligible migrants
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  • 85
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Keywords: Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Abstract: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Independent Evaluation Group Studies
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Impact ; Economic Insecurity ; Economic Stabilization ; Future Crisis ; Institutional Level ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Recovery ; Strategic Level
    Abstract: In the face of the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the World Bank delivered the largest crisis response in its history. This evaluation assesses the Bank Group's early response to the economic crises caused by COVID-19, and examines interventions over the 15 months from April 2020 through June 2021. The report considers two evaluation windows: the acute crisis phase (April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020) and the incipient recovery phase (January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2021). The objective of identifying the two windows was to assess whether the Bank Group internalized learning from the first period of the crisis to address the challenges that were materializing in the (incipient) recovery phase. The evaluation assesses the relevance of the Bank Group's interventions on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group targeted its early response based on clients' and sectors' needs, the extent to which the Bank Group used timely diagnostics and lessons from past crises to inform its early response, and the extent to which the early response leveraged the Bank Group's comparative advantages. The evaluation studies the quality of the Bank Group response on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group early response influenced client strategies; the extent to which the Bank Group coordinated its early response among its constituent institutions and with development partners; and how well the Bank Group early response handled monitoring, safeguards, and governance. The evaluation offers two near-term recommendations to strengthen the role of the Bank Group as a crisis responder, which is now more critical than ever
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Environmental Analysis
    Keywords: Coverage ; Equitable ; Financing ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health System ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Resilient
    Abstract: The health system in Serbia faces significant challenges arising from a long-term demographic trend and the recent shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Serbia's population is aging at a rapid pace, and the share of the population aged 65 and above almost doubled -from 9.6 percent to 18.7 percent-between 1990 and 2019. This, coupled with high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle factors, such as smoking, heavy drinking, and high consumption of fatty and sugary diet, has contributed to a rapidly rising burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Addressing NCDs exerts significant financial pressure on the health system that has been further squeezed after more than two years of dealing with COVID-19. This is all happening in a context where the economic contraction that began in 2020 after the advent of COVID-19 pandemic and compounded with the war in Ukraine has adversely affected the country's capacity to pay for health. The health system also has a challenge to meet population expectations, which have become more demanding after decades of strong economic growth
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Domestic Revenue Mobilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PERR ; Public Expenditure and Revenue Review ; Revenue
    Abstract: This Public Expenditure and Revenue Review (PERR) identifies Burkina Faso's key public spending and revenue challenges and proposes solutions to develop more effective and transparent fiscal policies. The review, carried out by a World Bank team with inputs from the Government of Burkina Faso, is the first such core diagnostic for the country in more than 10 years. It fills an important information gap and serves as a starting point for deeper analyses in three areas: (a) domestic revenue mobilization, (b) the sectoral allocation of public expenditure, and (c) public financial management
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bedoya, Guadalupe Randomized Regulation: The Impact of Minimum Quality Standards on Health Markets
    Keywords: Gesundheitswesen ; Gesundheitsreform ; Patienten ; Gesundheitsversorgung ; Produktqualität ; Epidemie ; Regulierung ; Experiment ; Kenia ; Health Care Market ; Health Care Utilizaton ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Informal Sector ; Patient Safety Standards ; Public Health ; Regulatory Enforcement
    Abstract: This paper presents results from the first randomization of a regulatory reform in the health sector. The reform established minimum quality standards for patient safety, an issue that has become increasingly salient following the Ebola and COVID-19 epidemics. In the experiment, all 1,348 health facilities in three Kenyan counties were classified into 273 markets, and the markets were then randomly allocated to treatment and control groups. Government inspectors visited health facilities and, depending on the results of their inspection, recommended closure or a timeline for improvements. The intervention increased compliance with patient safety measures in both public and private facilities (more so in the latter) and reallocated patients from private to public facilities without increasing out-of-pocket payments or decreasing facility use. In treated markets, improvements were equally marked throughout the quality distribution, consistent with a simple model of vertical differentiation in oligopolies. This paper thus establishes the use of experimental techniques to study regulatory reforms and, in doing so, shows that minimum standards can improve quality across the board without adversely affecting utilization
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  • 90
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stamm, Kersten The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies
    Keywords: Developing Economies ; Emerging Market Growth ; Instititutions and Macroeconomy ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Growth ; Investment Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades through the medium term. This subdued outlook follows a decade-long, geographically widespread investment growth slowdown before the COVID-19 pandemic. An empirical analysis covering 2000-21 finds that periods of strong investment growth were associated with strong real output growth, robust real credit growth, terms of trade improvements, growth in capital inflows, and investment climate reform spurts. Each of these factors has been decreasingly supportive of investment growth since the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Weak investment growth is a concern because it dampens potential growth, is associated with weak trade, and makes achieving the development and climate-related goals more difficult. Policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances, but include comprehensive fiscal and structural reforms, including repurposing of expenditure on inefficient subsidies. Given EMDEs' limited fiscal space, the international community will need to significantly increase international cooperation, official financing and grants, and leverage private sector financing for adequate investment to materialize
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lokshin, Michael Toward Environmentally Sustainable Public Institutions: The Green Government IT Index
    Keywords: Environment ; Environmental Sustainability ; Government Institutions ; Green Agenda ; Green Government ; Informaiton and Communications Technology (ICT) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new Green Government IT index to assess the environmentally responsible use of computers and other resources by the information technology departments of government institutions and nonprofit organizations. The methodology used in the paper relies on the established literature on index construction and the existing models for evaluating the environmental sustainability of information and communications technologies. The paper discusses the conceptual and theoretical foundations behind the new index and defines a set of verifiable, comparable, and transparent indicators for index construction. This framework allows for future index revisions as the green agenda evolves. The new index could be the first step before more resource-intensive assessments to inform an organization's long-term environmentally sustainable strategy
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  • 92
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (77 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth: A Global Database
    Keywords: Declining Growth Potential ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Global Growth Database ; Growth Expectations in Developing Economies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measures of Potential Growth ; Production Function
    Abstract: Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Porgo, Teegwende Valerie Prevalence of Catastrophic and Impoverishing Health Expenditures and Potential Protection against Financial Risks through Subsidies in Guinea
    Keywords: Bamako Initiative ; Catastrophic Health Expenditure ; Financial Risk Protection ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Impoverishing Health Expenditures ; Prescription Subsidy ; Universal Health Coverage (UHC)
    Abstract: Universal health coverage initiatives in Guinea have been hampered by insufficient budget allocations and inefficiencies. Nevertheless, data on the extent of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Guinea are scarce and outdated. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify the drivers of total health expenditures, (2) estimate the prevalence of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures, and (3) estimate the drivers of and potential financial risk protection against catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures through subsidies in Guinea. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the 2018-19 Guinea Living Standards Measurement Study. All 41,449 individuals in the Study were eligible, but 15 individuals who lacked consumption expenditure data were excluded. Expenditure data were converted to 2019 international dollars. Based on means and medians, the primary drivers of total health expenditures were hospitalizations (USD 78 and USD 51, respectively) and medications (USD 72 and USD 61, respectively). Based on the distribution of total health expenditures by expenditure categories, the primary driver was medications (75 percent). The main driver of hospitalization expenditures was fever and malaria (21 percent of hospitalization expenditures). The prevalences of catastrophic and health expenditures (equal to or greater than 10 percent threshold) and impoverishing health expenditures were 13 and 4 percent, respectively. Subsidizing medications would prevent 46 percent of the cases of catastrophic health expenditures and 73 percent of the cases of impoverishing health expenditures. It is recommended that the Guinean government (1) strengthen the country's pharmaceutical sector by reinforcing existing laws and regulations and the operational aspects of the sector; (2) implement subsidy programs for rational use of medicines (notwithstanding the Bamako Initiative); (3) strengthen the National Malaria Control Program; and (4) establish an evidence-based operational financing strategy for universal health coverage
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Seitz, William Can Vaccination Incentives Backfire? Experimental Evidence That Offering Cash Incentives Can Reduce Vaccination Intentions in Some Contexts
    Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Monetary Incentive ; Public Health Promotion Research ; Vaccination Experiment ; Vaccination Incentive
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of proposing a monetary incentive for vaccination intentions, with a survey-based randomized controlled experiment conducted separately in three countries, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Respondents from nationally representative surveys were randomly assigned to a control group (for which no incentive was proposed) or to one of several treatment groups with varying levels of hypothetical compensation. Offering incentives markedly reduced overall vaccination intentions -all three counties. Country-level results ranged from no meaningful effect on vaccination intentions (Tajikistan) to a decline of up to 22 percent (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). In follow-up questions, most respondents said they disapprove of offering financial incentives for vaccination, and especially in contexts with strong negative effects in the experiment. The results contrast with the well-established efficacy of monetary incentives to influence vaccination behavior in other settings, but they are consistent with findings from the behavioral literature in which incentive payments signal inferiority or disutility. The findings suggest that policy makers and practitioners should use caution when considering extrinsic incentives for vaccination and other health interventions where effects have not been tested
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Evaluation
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Food Insecurity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters
    Abstract: Somalia is today among the poorest and most fragile countries in the world, facing myriad development challenges related to ongoing conflict, climate change, food insecurity, natural disasters, and displacement. Overlapping crises related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a prolonged drought, and macroeconomic shocks from rising food and fuel costs have worsened socioeconomic conditions (World Bank 2022). Seventy-one percent of Somalis lived in extreme poverty in 2021, compared with 28 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2021). Average life expectancy was 57.4 years, and maternal mortality stood at 734 for every 100,000 births (World Bank 2018d). The country's Sustainable Development Goal ranking was 160th out of 163. The Somalia Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the evolution of the World Bank Group's support over fiscal years (FY)13-22 and the extent to which the Bank Group adequately prepared for an eventual normalization of relations with Somalia, tailored its support to the conflict and fragility situation in Somalia and evolving circumstances and country priorities, and learned from experience. It will seek to inform the preparation of the next Somalia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and may be relevant to broader Bank Group engagement in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (74 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Englander, Gabriel Input Subsidies and the Depletion of Natural Capital: Chinese Distant Water Fishing
    Keywords: Depletion Of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Fuel Subsidies ; Impact of Fuel Subsidies On Fishing Stock ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Overfishing ; Resource Extraction ; Subsidy Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Input subsidies in natural resource sectors are widely believed to deplete the natural capital on which these sectors depend. However, estimating the causal effect of subsidies on resource extraction has been stymied by identification and data challenges. China's fishing fleet is the world's largest, and in 2016 the government changed its fuel subsidy policy for distant water vessels to one that increases with predetermined vessel characteristics. Regression discontinuity estimates imply a long-run elasticity of fishing hours with respect to fuel subsidies of 2.2. Consequently, reducing Chinese fuel subsidies by 50 percent could eliminate biological overfishing in several ocean regions. By demonstrating the substantial impact of fuel subsidies on fishing activity and fish stocks, the findings inform ongoing subsidy reform in China, other nations with subsidized fishing vessel fuel, and the World Trade Organization
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gatti, Roberta Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
    Keywords: Data Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Forecast Error ; GDP Growth Forecast ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Optimism ; Statistical Capacity
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth-are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank's forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund's January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country's Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bedoya, Guadalupe The Unintended Consequences of Curfews on Road Safety
    Keywords: Congestion Externalities ; Curfew ; Curfew Vehicle Crashes ; Health Policy and Management ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Pandemic ; Road Safety ; Urban Road Safety ; Vehicle Crash
    Abstract: During COVID-19, curfews spread like wildfire. Although their impact on curbing the spread of disease remains to be proven, curfews have the potential to bring about costs to society in multiple domains. This paper investigates the impact of curfews on road safety in an urban setting. It shows that they lead to large reductions in crashes during the curfew hours when cars are off the road, but that these reductions can be fully offset by an increase in crashes during the hours before the curfew when people rush to get home. These findings forewarn that the use of curfews in future crises and pandemics should be carefully scrutinized and designed to minimize unintended negative effects
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Reed, Tristan Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? And if so, Why? and What is Next?
    Keywords: Deglobalisierung ; Außenhandel ; Internationale Beziehungen ; Handelskonflikt ; Protektionismus ; Kapitalmobilität ; Importbeschränkung ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Geopolitik ; Geoökonomie ; Welt ; Deglobalization ; Economic Impacts Of Globalization ; Geoeconomics ; Geopolitical Risk ; Health Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Relations ; Internationalpolitical Economy ; National Security ; Resilience ; Trade ; Trade War
    Abstract: Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new era. Increasing anxiety about the labor market effects of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, laid the groundwork, but was not the catalyst for the reversal in attitudes towards globalization. Similarly, the COVID pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain resilience, but neither the pandemic nor short run policy response had enduring effects on trade flows. Global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade. After a temporary decline in 2020, global trade in goods and services increased sharply in 2021. Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised new concerns about national security and the exposureof supply chains to geopolitical risk. This was followed by demands to diversify away from "non-friendly" countries and to the employment of trade policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China's technological development. The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries. Regarding resilience, the main goal of recent trade policy changes, measures of trade volatility or concentration can be helpful, but resilience will be elusive as long as we lack benchmarks against which policy performance can be measured
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Climate Change Impact On Debt Growth ; Country Debt Capacity ; COVID-19 Pandemic Impact On Debt ; Debt Sustainability Framework ; Determining Debt Distress ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Insecurity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; IFC ; Inflation ; Low-Income Country Debt ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; MIGA ; World Bank Debt Data
    Abstract: This evaluation, requested by the Committee on Development Effectiveness of the Executive Board of the International Development Association (IDA), is intended to provide input and insight into the upcoming World Bank-International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LICDSF) currently planned for fiscal year 2023. The sharp rise in debt stress among low-income countries and a changing global risk landscape leading up to and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed concerns with debt sustainability to the top of the global policy agenda. This evaluation assesses the World Bank's inputs into the LIC-DSF and how it uses LIC-DSF outputs to inform various corporate and country-level decisions. Main findings and recommendations include: (i) Expectations of the World Bank in taking the lead on long-term growth prospects should be clarified. (ii) Recently increased attention to debt data coverage should be sustained and extended; greater attention is needed to assess data quality. (iii) The DSA should be more directly and consistently used to inform priorities for the identification of fiscally oriented prior actions in development policy operations and SDFP performance and policy actions. (iv) The World Bank should continue to give increasing attention in the LIC-DSF to the long-term implications of climate change, in terms of both growth and fiscal requirements of adaptation and mitigation
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