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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trade and Cities (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Karayalcin, Cem Trade and Cities
    Abstract: Many developing countries display remarkably high degrees of urban concentration that are incommensurate with their levels of urbanization. The cost of excessively high levels of urban concentration can be very high in terms of overpopulation, congestion, and productivity growth. One strand of the theoretical literature suggests that such high levels of concentration may be the result of restrictive trade policies that trigger forces of agglomeration. Another strand of the literature, however, points out that trade liberalization itself may exacerbate urban concentration by favoring the further growth of those large urban centers that have better access to international markets. The empirical basis for judging this question has been weak so far; in the existing literature, trade policies are poorly measured (or are not measured, as when trade volumes are used spuriously). Here, new disaggregated tariff measures are used to empirically test the hypothesis. A treatment-and-control analysis of pre- versus post-liberalization performance of the cities is also employed in liberalizing and non-liberalizing countries. It is found that (controlling for the largest cities that have ports and, thus, have better access to external markets) liberalizing trade leads to a reduction in urban concentration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6913
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Keywords: Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Abstract: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What Explains Global Inflation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim What Explains Global Inflation
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Demand Shock ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Global Inflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Drivers ; Interest Rate Shock ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Price ; Supply Shock
    Abstract: This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. It estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. The authors report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion's share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10648
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances : Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lebrand, Mathilde Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Alternative Energy Price Shocks ; Coal Price ; Current Account Balance ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Energy Policies and Economics ; Energy Price Shock ; Fuels ; Natural Gas Price ; Oil Price ; Power and Energy Conversion
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of real energy price shocks on the current account balances of 45 emerging market and developing economies using country-specific structural vector autoregression models. The empirical results suggest that a 1 percent increase in real oil prices results in up to 0.11 percentage point cumulative improvement in the current account balances of oil exporters after five years, while a similar shock to real natural gas prices results in up to 0.06 percentage point improvement in the current account balances of natural gas exporters after five years. Real coal price shocks result in higher current account balances of oil exporters and natural gas exporters, suggesting substitution of coal with oil and natural gas in such cases. When the contributions of alternative real energy prices to the variance of current account balances are compared, oil price shocks dominate those of natural gas and coal prices. On the source of oil price shocks, the results support the view that the effects of oil demand shocks on current account balances are different from those of oil supply shocks. The results are robust to alternative specifications and identification schemes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10623
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation and exchange rate pass-through (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8780
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The degree to which domestic prices adjust to exchange rate movements is key to understanding inflation dynamics, and hence to guiding monetary policy. However, the exchange rate pass-through to inflation varies considerably across countries and over time. By estimating structural factor-augmented vector-autoregressive models for 47 countries, this paper brings to light two fundamental factors accounting for these variations: the nature of the shock triggering currency movements and country-specific characteristics. The empirical results in this paper are three-fold. First, an empirical investigation demonstrates that different domestic and global shocks can be associated with widely different pass-through ratios. Second, country characteristics matter, including policy frameworks that govern monetary policy responses, as well as other structural features that affect an economy's sensitivity to currency fluctuations. Pass-through ratios tend to be lower in countries that combine flexible exchange rate regimes and credible inflation targets. Finally, the empirical results suggest that central bank independence can greatly facilitate the task of stabilizing inflation following large currency movements and allows fuller use of the exchange rate as a buffer against external shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8780
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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