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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies : Evolution, Drivers, and Policies (2019)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464813764
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (486 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1375-7
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    One-Stop Source : A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Ha, Jongrim One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation
    Keywords: Consumer Price Index ; Deflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Synchronization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices
    Abstract: This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9737
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Keywords: Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Abstract: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flow Management ; Economic Response To Shock ; Emerging Market Volatility ; Federal Reserve ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Global Financial Cycles ; International Monetary Policy Spillover ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) exhibit significantly greater volatility in asset returns than advanced economies. The commonalities in these returns (and flows) across countries are particularly strong for EMDEs. If these occur independently of the exchange rate regime and if these global financial cycle effects are furthermore independent of countries' financial openness, the result is Obstfeld (2022)'s "Lemma": countries can do nothing to decouple from the global financial cycle. Under the prevalent view that U.S. monetary policy is the key driver of the global financial cycle, countries then inherit U.S. monetary policy no matter what they do on exchange rates or capital control policies. Using structural vector autoregression models for 78 countries over 1995-2019, as well as different methods of identifying U.S. monetary policy shocks from the literature, this paper tests the proposition that countries with less open capital accounts exhibit systematically smaller responses to U.S. monetary policy shocks than low capital control countries. This paper also considers the role of other institutional features such as exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange interventions in explaining cross-country differences in the responses to the shocks. The empirical results suggest that more stringent capital controls exhibit smaller responses of interest rates and exchange rates to U.S. monetary policy shocks and that this result holds more firmly for EMDEs than advanced economies. In contrast, the analysis finds only weak evidence that the degree of exchange rate flexibility affects U.S. spillovers to foreign interest rates and exchange rates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10582
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What Explains Global Inflation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim What Explains Global Inflation
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Demand Shock ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Global Inflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Drivers ; Interest Rate Shock ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Price ; Supply Shock
    Abstract: This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. It estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. The authors report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion's share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10648
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding inflation in emerging and developing economies (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8761
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs, disinflation occurred across all regions. This paper presents a summary of a recent book, 'Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies', that analyzes this remarkable achievement. The findings suggest that many EMDEs enjoy the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies. In EMDEs that do not operate inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate movements tend to have larger and more persistent effects on inflation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8761
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation in low-income countries (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8934
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation in Low-Income Countries
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of global and domestic inflation shocks on core price inflation in 105 countries between 1970 and 2016, by using a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregressive model. The methodology allows accounting for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies, emerging markets and developing economies, and low-income countries) and across groups with different country characteristics (such as foreign exchange and monetary policy regimes). The empirical results indicate that most of the variation in inflation among low-income countries over the past decades is accounted for by external shocks. More than half of the variation in core inflation rates among low-income countries is due to global core price shocks, compared with one-eighth in advanced economies. Global food and energy price shocks account for another 13 percent of core inflation variation in low-income countries-half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in emerging markets and developing economies. This points to challenges in anchoring domestic inflation expectations, which have been most evident among low-income countries with floating exchange rates, especially in cases where central bank independence has been weak
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8934
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global inflation synchronization (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8768
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Global Inflation Synchronization
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. The authors' methodology allows them to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. The paper reports three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8768
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation : concepts, evolution, and correlates (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8738
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the past four to five decades, inflation has fallen around the world, with median annual global consumer price inflation down from a peak of 16.6 percent in 1974 to 2.6 percent in 2017. This decline began in advanced economies in the mid-1980s and in emerging market and developing economies in the mid-1990s. By 2000, global inflation had stabilized at historically low levels. Lower inflation has been accompanied by reduced inflation volatility, especially in advanced economies. This improvement in inflation outcomes has stemmed in large part from structural economic changes, including improved monetary and fiscal policy frameworks as well as international trade and financial liberalization. Lower and more stable inflation has often been associated with better growth and development outcomes, partly by reducing uncertainty, fostering a more efficient allocation of resources, and helping preserve financial stability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8738
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation and exchange rate pass-through (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8780
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The degree to which domestic prices adjust to exchange rate movements is key to understanding inflation dynamics, and hence to guiding monetary policy. However, the exchange rate pass-through to inflation varies considerably across countries and over time. By estimating structural factor-augmented vector-autoregressive models for 47 countries, this paper brings to light two fundamental factors accounting for these variations: the nature of the shock triggering currency movements and country-specific characteristics. The empirical results in this paper are three-fold. First, an empirical investigation demonstrates that different domestic and global shocks can be associated with widely different pass-through ratios. Second, country characteristics matter, including policy frameworks that govern monetary policy responses, as well as other structural features that affect an economy's sensitivity to currency fluctuations. Pass-through ratios tend to be lower in countries that combine flexible exchange rate regimes and credible inflation targets. Finally, the empirical results suggest that central bank independence can greatly facilitate the task of stabilizing inflation following large currency movements and allows fuller use of the exchange rate as a buffer against external shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8780
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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