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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (1,206)
  • GBV
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,206)
  • Cambridge [u.a.] : Cambridge Univ. Press
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (1,206)
Datasource
  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (1,206)
  • GBV
Material
Language
Years
Publisher
Subjects(RVK)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Serbia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Serbia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Serbia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Serbia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Serbia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Serbia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Serbia
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Ghana assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Ghana perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ghana on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Ghana; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Ghana; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Ghana; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Ghana
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Guinea perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Guinea on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Guinea; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Guinea; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Guinea; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Guinea
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Kenya assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Kenya perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Kenya on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Kenya; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Kenya; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Kenya; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Kenya
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CEMAC ; Country Level ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. The Economic Barometer also includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition's special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to take better advantage of future commodity price booms
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Jamaica assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Jamaica perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Jamaica on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Jamaica; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Jamaica; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Jamaica; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Jamaica
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragility ; CPE ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Drought and Climate Shocks ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mavroeconomic Vulnerabilities ; Unsustainable Development ; Weak Business Environment
    Abstract: The objective of this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) is to assess how well the World Bank Group supported Ethiopia in addressing key challenges that constrained its development and how that support adapted over time to respond to changing circumstances, an evolving relationship, and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover fiscal years (FY)13-23. The time period is selected to include the last two Bank Group strategies to support Ethiopia and coincides with the period of theprevious two political administrations. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group-supported Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia expected in FY25
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Economic Development ; Energy Prices ; Growth and Real Sector ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pandemic and weak global trade has particularly impacted Thailand due to the country's position as a trade and tourism hub. Thailand's tourism arrivals reached only 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels in September despite the ongoing growth in global services trade. Visitor numbers increased across the board, except for China and Japan which are experiencing economic slowdown. The economic recovery faltered due to global headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2023 Q3, well below expectations. Thailand has implemented a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has taken the first steps to implementing comprehensive carbon pricing. This report explores some of the complexities involved in implementing carbon pricing. It finds that Thailand has already taken some of the most difficult steps in setting up a comprehensive carbon pricing policy instrument. Important questions remain to be addressed about what form carbon pricing should take in Thailand and which economic sectors should be included in a carbon pricing scheme. The potential benefits from carbon pricing may be substantial. Carbon pricing is likely to play an important role in meeting future emission reduction targets, reducing environmental degradation and air pollution while positioning Thailand as a regional leader in green and sustainable growth
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (69 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Del Carmen, Giselle Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras
    Keywords: Administrative Registries ; Econometrics ; Economic Development ; Honduras ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Top Income
    Abstract: This paper presents distributional national accounts for Honduras over 2003-2019, using survey microdata, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. The estimates suggest a high and persistent inequality in the country: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of the total income over the period, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Undistributed corporate profits are the overwhelming income source at the very top of the distribution, highlighting its importance in the measurement of income inequality. Finally, using a panel of tax records, the paper also documents that not only is inequality persistent, but the same individuals are often observed at the top, suggesting that the observed inequality has deep roots
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pullinger, John Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Statistical System ; Statistical Capacity ; Statistical Capacity Index ; Statistical Indicators ; Statistical Performance
    Abstract: Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. This paper offers the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. It compares the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index with other widely used indexes, such as the Open Data Inventory index, the Global Data Barometer index, and other regional and self-assessment tools. The findings show that each index brings advantages in data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of countries and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. The Open Data Inventory index covers the most countries, the Global Data Barometer index collects data through its surveys, and the Statistical Performance Indicators and Index offer a broader framework for assessing statistical systems. The paper offers further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions for development
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business Environment ; E-Government ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Governance ; Innovation and Technology Privacy ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The Chinese government has a long-standing commitment to business environment and digital government reforms. China's online government-to-business (G2B) services have enhanced public service efficiency, accessibility, and transparency, creating a more favorable business environment. This note features a case study of the all-in-one online government service platform developed in Zhejiang Province, a subnational leader in promoting e-government and business environment reforms. Following general national guidelines, Zhejiang has been a leader in exploring innovations to promote digital government development and business environment reforms. Its reforms both demonstrate the effectiveness of a proactive approach to leveraging digital technologies for administrative efficiency and an improved user experience and highlight the positive impacts on the business environment
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Turkiye assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Turkiye perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Turkiye on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Turkiye; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Turkiye; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Turkiye; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Turkiye
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Environment ; IDA19 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rating System ; Resilience ; RRS
    Abstract: In response to the growing recognition that measuring inputs, such as climate finance, is not enough to capture the impacts of investments, the World Bank Group developed the Resilience Rating System (RRS). Developed over a two-year, multi-sectoral consultative process through close collaboration with internal and external actors, the RRS methodology aims to guide investment decisions and improve climate resilience in project design and outcomes. The methodology report is publicly available. The RRS evaluates and rates investment projects from C to A+, based on their resilience attributes in two complementary dimensions. The resilience of rating considers a project's design, reflecting the confidence that it will achieve its expected objectives and maximize development benefits in the face of climate and disaster risks. The resilience through rating considers a project's outcomes and reflects its contribution to improving climate resilience in the broader community, sector and systems, and to driving transformational adaptation. Combining the two dimension ratings provides an overall project rating, from CC to A+A+
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Algeria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Algeria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Algeria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Algeria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Algeria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Algeria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Algeria
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Azerbaijan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Azerbaijan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Azerbaijan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Azerbaijan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Azerbaijan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Azerbaijan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Azerbaijan
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Cabo Verde assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Cabo Verde perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Cabo Verde on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Cabo Verde; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Cabo Verde; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Cabo Verde; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Cabo Verde
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambel, Alemayehu A Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net?
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gap ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women and Tax ; Women Run Businesses
    Abstract: This study investigates gender disparities in the tax burden in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using data on 2,320 taxpayers for 2011 and 2012. A quantile regression analysis is employed to control for firm characteristics such as sector, size, and age. The results show that women-owned businesses are more likely to operate in low-profit sectors and report lower sales and tax liabilities than men-owned businesses. However, women-owned businesses pay as much as men-owned businesses in taxes, suggesting that they are subject to a higher effective tax rate. This, in turn, may lead to women-owned businesses exiting the tax net at a higher rate. These findings suggest that gender disparities in tax compliance are not simply due to differences in firm characteristics but may also be due to biases in tax declaration and enforcement processes
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic, Talip Recording the Time Divide: A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement
    Keywords: Cellular Phones ; Commercial Recall ; Consumption ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Telecommunications ; Usage Monitoring
    Abstract: Based on a randomized survey experiment in Malawi, this study examines how innovative techniques in time use data collection could sidestep measurement concerns with traditional recall-based time use measurement. The experiment assigns random samples of households, and adult men and women within, to one of two treatment arms on time use measurement: a traditional 24-hour recall time use diary, and a self-administered smartphone-based pictorial time diary, known as the TimeTracker app, for real-time data collection. Compared to the recall arm, participation in employment and unpaid domestic and care work is shown to be higher in the smartphone arm for both men and women. The resulting estimates of gender gaps, while continuing to be large, are narrower in the smartphone arm, except for care work where the estimated gender gap increases. The recall treatment leads to substantial underreporting of activities after 6 pm, which otherwise accounts for nearly 30 percent of daily reported time in the smartphone arm. Likewise, the extent of simultaneous activities, particularly among women, is markedly lower in the recall arm. The overall reported time is, however, higher in the recall arm due to the minimum 15-minute duration that was used for recording activities the 24-hour recall diary, while over one-third of activities lasted less than 15 minutes in the smartphone arm. The analysis also shows that using stylized time use questions with a 7-day recall, as opposed to a 24-hour recall diary, results in an even greater overestimation of reported time in employment and unpaid work
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bou-Habib, Chadi Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019
    Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Crisis ; External Shock ; Famine ; General Equilibrium Simulation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mount Lebanon ; Natural Disaster
    Abstract: This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Giuliano, Fernando The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Shocks ; Droughts ; Econometrics ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Environmental Disasters and Degradation ; Floods ; Macro-Structural Model ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Uruguay is an economy that is vulnerable to precipitation patterns, as evidenced during the country's historic 2022/23 drought. Yet, and despite its rich macroeconomic and climate data environment, the country does not have a consistent macroeconomic model to address the aggregate impact of climate shocks, let alone the expected additional impact from climate change. This paper intends to fill this gap by integrating climate shocks into the World Bank's Macro-Fiscal Model, its workhorse structural macroeconomic projection model. Building on existing country studies on the sectoral effects of droughts and floods, the analysis finds that the volatility of a simulated Uruguayan economy only subject to historical climate shocks reaches 22 percent of the historical volatility of gross domestic product. Moreover, as climate shocks are only one of many shocks that can simultaneously affect an economy, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic shocks into historical climate shocks exacerbates volatility and increases potential losses. Gross domestic product can fall by 2.3 percent under a combined negative climate and macroeconomic shock of the type witnessed once every six years on average, and 4.1 percent under a once-in-40-years combined negative shock. Climate change compounds these effects going forward, worsening the magnitude of the downside risks from droughts by between 18 and 30 percent, although estimates incorporating climate change are subject to large uncertainty. The order of magnitude of these effects calls for a more systematic consideration of climate shocks in macroeconomic projections and fiscal risk assessments for Uruguay
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Urban Study
    Keywords: Demographics and Aging ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Human Development and Gender ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Urban and Rural Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: This report begins with an Executive Summary, which introduces the territorial development approach and the rationale for applying it in Lesotho's development context before going on to summarize key takeaways and recommendations. It is followed by four chapters: chapter 1, Introduction, lays out the country context, presenting in brief Lesotho's economic and demographic situation, population projections, governmental structure, and poverty profile and the government's goals. Chapter 2, territorial development framework and analysis in Lesotho, discusses the territorial development approach, its objectives, and the challenges it aims to address before presenting a customized 2 by 2 territorial framework for Lesotho and explaining how it can be applied. Chapter 3, analyzing Lesotho's Challenges through a Territorial Lens, lays out a spatial analysis centering on four development challenges: economic opportunities, internal connectivity and regional integration, access to basic services, and climate preparedness. To highlight the challenges, the chapter includes 4D heat maps linked to density, distance, disparity, and disaster risk. It also summaries case studies and real-life applications of the territorial development approach in Lesotho. Full case studies are in an annex. Chapter 4, recommendations, covers guiding principles and recommendations based on the territorial development approach and analysis
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Education ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Risks ; Footprint ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Oil Revenue ; Quasi-Fiscal Activities ; SNG
    Abstract: The first three chapters of the PFR review the core fiscal policy and revenue mobilization issues. Chapter 1 discusses the fiscal landscape, fiscal framework, and progressivity of fiscal policy. Chapter 2 looks at the footprint of quasi-fiscal activities, which affects the overall fiscal stance and exposes certain fiscal risks. Chapter 3 discusses the stagnation in non-oil revenue and collection across taxes and outlines reform options to improve the tax regime. This PFR also covers education and social protection spending, constituting about 42 percent of generalgovernment budget spending, and is critical for Kazakhstan's social agenda and long-term development goals. Chapter 4 analyzes the efficiency of public spending on education, discusses challenges in delivering equitable access to quality education, and offers options for enhancing spending effectiveness through institutional and policy changes. Chapter 5 discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of spending on the social protection system, particularly the coverage and targeting of social assistance programs, issues in implementing active labor market programs, and challenges in delivering social insurance. Because of data constraints, this PFR excludes analysis on social benefits, pensions, and the State Social Insurance Fund. The last two chapters cover the core system of public-finance management issues on budgeting and inter-governmental fiscal relations. Chapter 6 considers options for further improving budgeting, planning, and monitoring to deliver better fiscal outcomes for inclusive and resilient growth. While Chapter 7 examines emerging subnational fiscal issues and options to simplify and improve certainty in the transfer mechanism from central to SNGs and within the SNG hierarchy
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Zimbabwe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Zimbabwe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Zimbabwe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Zimbabwe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Zimbabwe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Zimbabwe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Zimbabwe
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Fiscal Capacity Estimation ; Fiscal Policy ; Intergovernmental Transfers ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subnational Tax Effort ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper discusses the application of the conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation using Indonesia's existing macroeconomic indicators. The authors find that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, and urbanization rate are good predictors for most tax sources. These three indicators also predicted the total district's OSRs well, providing an empirical foundation for an aggregated macro-based model to estimate all OSRs using the abovementioned variables. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 1 provides a description of Indonesia's system of intergovernmental transfers and subnational taxation. It shows subnational fiscal reliance on transfers rather than OSRs. Section 2 makes the case for reforming the DAU formula and explains recent efforts by the Government of Indonesia on that front. Section 3 discusses the limited existing empirical literature on estimating potential revenues for transfers formula. Section 4 explains and applies our conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation. It also provides the empirical justification to use an aggregated approach to estimation rather than estimating each individual tax base. Section 5 applies the aggregated approach to estimating potential revenues. Section 6 discusses the equity implications and makes the case for using district fixed effects. Finally, section 7 provides a conclusion of this paper
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Early Childhood ; Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Protection ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Strengths and Gaps
    Abstract: This human capital review assesses human capital outcomes in Mauritania and identifies actions to strengthen, utilize, and protect human capital. The government of Mauritania has demonstrated a strong commitment to placing human capital at the forefront of its long-term vision, with dedicated efforts focused on enhancing childhood health and education outcomes. Despite Mauritania's positive initiatives, the country's human capital wealth per capita has declined over the last 20 years; and it is imperative to look at ways to quickly reverse this situation. Children born today in Mauritania will only be 38 percent as productive when they grow up as they could have been had they enjoyed complete education and full health. Increasing the productivity of Mauritanians--both men and women--and thus allowing them to fully contribute to the development of their society entails transforming the human capital challenge to a human capital opportunity. This report takes a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach and proposes recommendations for building, protecting, and utilizing human capital in Mauritania
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mongolia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mongolia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mongolia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mongolia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mongolia
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
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  • 41
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Thomas, Alastair VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Redistribution ; Reduced Rates ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Tax Reform ; Value Added Tax (VAT)
    Abstract: Most countries' value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and (to a lesser extent) social and cultural objectives. This paper assesses the case for applying reduced VAT rates, with a particular focus on OECD countries where reduced rates feature prominently. It examines both the theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as practical considerations, and concludes that the case for reduced VAT rates is weak. In particular, the optimal indirect tax literature finds no redistributive role for reduced VAT rates when other more direct instruments are available. These theoretical findings are supported by the empirical literature that shows reduced VAT rates to be a poorly targeted means of supporting lower income households, particularly when compared to targeted cash transfer programs. Similarly, reduced VAT rates are unlikely to be a well-targeted way to encourage consumption of merit goods, while they also create significant administrative complexity. These findings have significant implications for tax reform in both developed and developing economies. In particular, where countries have the administrative capacity to implement effectively targeted cash transfer programs, they should use these programs to support poorer households instead of reduced VAT rates
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demand Shortfalls ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Growth ; Inflation ; Investment Shifts ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Property Sector
    Abstract: Economic activity in China has picked up in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.2 percent y/y in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. The initial phase of economic reopening triggered a surge in economic activity in Q1, but growth momentum decelerated rapidly in Q2 before recovering modestly in Q3. The volatile growth performance, compounded by persistent deflationary pressures and still weak consumer confidence, suggests continued fragility in the recovery. China's investment deceleration has been one of the key drivers of the overall growth slowdown in recent years. Together with the decline in aggregate investment growth, there has been a marked shift in the composition of investment. Structural reforms are crucial both to accelerate rebalancing towards higher consumption and to mitigate risks of inefficiencies in capital allocation. Following recent statements by policymakers, a renewed focus on structural reform implementation with specific measures strengthening the rule of law, independent enforcement of regulations, fostering competition, and ensuring a level-playing field could help ensure that resources are allocated to the most productive sectors and firms. Deepening financial sector reform will enhance market-based financial intermediation. Measures to improve the progressivity of the fiscal system, reform the hukou system, and foster inclusive finance will support household consumption growth
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Saudi Arabia ; Women ; Women and Labor
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Average growthin the GCC surpassed 7 percent in 2022 led by Saudi Arabia, its biggest economy, which was globally the fastest growing large economy. This growth was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil sectors. The latter was the result of persistent structural reforms undertaken by several GCC countries to improve the investment environment, promote flexible labor markets, and encourage women to join the labor market. GCC countries have used the windfall revenues from oil and gas to rebuild their buffers, pay down their debt, and shore-up their sovereign wealth funds. They have also sought to protect their vulnerable populations with continued subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities. Such policies have limited the impact of inflation on the domestic economy. Finally, GCC countries have also used their financial muscle to support economically weaker countries in the region. The stellar growth of 2022 is slowing down and growth is expected to moderate to 1 percent in 2023 before picking up again to 3.6 percent in 2024. The decline in economic activity in 2023 is driven by consecutive production cut decisions by OPEC+ in an effort to stabilize global oil prices. However, non-oil GDP continues its growth trajectory reaching 3.9 percent, resulting weaker integration between oil and non-oil sectors. To maintain this track record, GCC countries will need to continue to exercise prudent macroeconomic management, stay the course with structural reforms, and increase non-oil exports. Downside risks remain and it would be amiss not to mention them. The conflict in the Middle East presents major risks to the region and the GCC outlook if it extends or expands to include other regional players. While it is too early to quantify the impact and channels of the conflict, we already witness a 4 percentsurge in global oil futures. Although China is bouncing back after emerging from tight Covid-19 lockdowns, troubles in the real estate sector could still disrupt this trajectory. Persistent high inflation in the world's major economies has not been entirely vanquishedsuggesting a high interest rate environment for a longer period. Windfall revenues are anticipated as a result of higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a pivotal role in determining economicramifications not only on energy markets but also on regional financial and trade markets and overall economic confidence. The Special Focus section of the report discusses the power of structural reforms and social norms in advancing female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia experienced an unprecedented surge in female labor force participation since 2016 as a result of: (i) changing regulations and the removal of legal barriers, shifting social norms, (ii) the implementation of sound structural reforms and (iii) effective government communications. Saudi Arabia's success in increasing female labor force participation from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36 percent in 2023 offers important lessons to other countries in the region and the world
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  • 44
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Komatsu, Hitomi Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Female Entrepreneurs ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Governments often use simplified business tax systems, such as presumptive tax regimes, to register and tax small and microenterprises. Despite concerns about how such regimes could disproportionately affect female-owned and low-revenue entrepreneurs, there is a lack of empirical analysis examining the tax burden. The presumptive tax in Ethiopia has a complex assessment system, where the tax liabilities are determined according to the activity type and turnover (99 activities and 19 turnover bands), and some activities do not have a tax-free threshold. This paper uses two rounds of data in the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Surveys and the tax code to analyze the equity and gender implications of the presumptive tax on small and microenterprises by imputing the effective tax rates. There are three key findings. First, the effective tax rates are higher for businesses in the lowest quartile at 4.3 percent of turnover compared to 1.5 percent for businesses in the highest quartile, using the most recent survey, resulting in a regressive system. Second, male-owned businesses tend to operate in sectors without a tax-free threshold and are more likely than female-owned businesses to face higher tax rates. Third, the effective tax rates are high for businesses in food and beverage services, which is female-dominated, and for transit services, which is male-dominated, due to the lack of a tax-free threshold for these sectors. The study finds that an alternative presumptive tax system with a single tax rate on turnover and an exemption for all low-revenue businesses would be simpler for tax assessment and more progressive
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chen, Yutong Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use: Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program
    Keywords: Difference in Differences Specifications ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Labor Supply ; Low Skilled Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Cost ; Travel Subsidies ; Unemployed Women ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper estimates a synthetic difference-in-differences specification on the roll-out of a program providing free bus transit for women in several Indian states, to examine the impact on women's time allocation and labor supply. Household expenditures on buses fall and women save time on travel. However, there is substantial heterogeneity. Skilled employed women increase labor supply and reduce time on household chores. Low-skilled married women increase time on household activities and reduce labor supply. Unemployed women increase job search with no effect on employment. The findings show that gender roles within households undermine the effect of gender-specific travel subsidies on female labor supply
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  • 46
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Uzbekistan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Uzbekistan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Uzbekistan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Uzbekistan
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moretti, Matias Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Emerging Markets Bond Index ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Inelastic Financial Markets ; Institutional Investors ; International Capital Markets ; International Financial Markets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Small Open Economies ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment device that reduces default risk
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Fiji assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Fiji perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Fiji on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Fiji; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Fiji; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Fiji; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Fiji
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mali assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mali perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mali on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mali; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mali; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mali; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mali
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  • 52
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Madrigal Correa, Alma Lucia Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines
    Keywords: Ancestral Domains ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict Data Monitor ; Indigenous Peoples ; Indigenous Peoples Law ; Land Titling ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mindano ; Political Economy ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Co-Evolutionary Framework ; Diversification ; Economic Growth ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Principle Of Relatedness ; Technology-Based
    Abstract: This research examines the diversification process by conceptualizing a co-evolutionary framework linking production and technology. The study applies the framework to retrospectively explain Korea's successful diversification path and to Viet Nam to identify how the country could further diversify into complex and value-added products. The authors apply relatedness analysis leveraging patent and trade data and present four different types of diversification patterns, namely unrelated diversification, production-based diversification, technology-based diversification, and complex diversification. Developed countries including Korea shifted toward technology-based or complex diversification strategies as their economies developed. Using a simulated scenario approach, the report outlines potential future trajectories wherein Viet Nam attains technological capabilities. The result shows that Viet Nam can diversify into 233 products if it accumulates capabilities in the 12 identified technologies. The report concludes with policy lessons that could inform policy makers in Viet Nam as well as other developing economies. Namely, that the country would need to invest more intensively in technology and capabilities upgrading to diversify into new complex products and evolve its diversification strategy alongside its economic growth and capability building process
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Law ; Gender Based Violence ; Gender Equality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nonextractive Sectors ; Resilience
    Abstract: Papua New Guinea has abundant resources in the form of oil and mineral wealth. But a complex set of factors, including systemic gender inequality, underinvestment in non-extractive sectors, and fragility compounded by vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards act as barriers to sustainable and inclusive growth of the country. This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) report assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group support to Papua New Guinea between fiscal year FY08 and FY23. It assesses the Bank Group's development effectiveness in addressing the above three core themes, namely: (i) lack of investment in Papua New Guinea's non-extractive sectors and their poor performance, (ii) the economic exclusion of women and gender-based violence (GBV) issues associated with it, and (iii) unmitigated risks of disaster from natural hazards, and violence, and conflict. The report answers three specific questions. The first explores the extent to which the Bank Group adapted its engagement in line with key constraints, including in relation to development partners, changes in country context, and lessons from experience. The second focuses on the results of Bank Group support and explanatory factors for results under each them, answered by applying a gender lens where relevant. The third question explores the extent to which the Bank Group successfully identified and addressed conflict, violence, and disaster from natural hazards risks. The report offers key lessons to inform the World Bank Group's future engagement with the country: (i) Data gaps need to be addressed to inform sound policy making and effective programming in Papua New Guinea. (ii) Declining governance quality and increasing bilateral aid will require the World Bank to reassess how it supports key policy reforms to achieve development impact, including through using DPOs. (iii) The Bank Group could elevate its impact on gender equality and GBV by shifting from a project-centric approach to a strategic country engagement approach. (iv) The negative effects that compound and interrelated risks pose to achieving development aims need to be addressed more comprehensively
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  • 58
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Effectiveness ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Sao Tome and Principe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Sao Tome and Principe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Sao Tome and Principe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Sao Tome and Principe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Sao Tome and Principe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Sao Tome and Principe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Sao Tome and Principe
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  • 59
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Montenegro assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Montenegro perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Montenegro on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Montenegro; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Montenegro; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Montenegro; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Montenegro
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  • 60
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in the Kyrgyz Republic assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in the Kyrgyz Republic perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic on 1) their views regarding the general environment in the Kyrgyz Republic; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in the Kyrgyz Republic; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in the Kyrgyz Republic
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Viollaz, Mariana From Middle Class to Poverty: The Unequal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries
    Keywords: COVID-19 Job Loss ; Distributional Impact ; Economic Insecurity ; Economic Shocks ; Household Economic Welfare ; Household Poverty ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation
    Abstract: This study combines pre-COVID-19 household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance) income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, South Africa, and Turkiye. It first presents an in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections-a critical input in microsimulations-for 15 developing countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the actual employment level, but in four countries, where the labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the projections considerably underestimated job losses due to the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results for the five countries, which show declines in per capita household income or consumption across the distribution, a decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no other clear pattern of impacts across the different quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy, because it underestimated declines in earnings
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  • 62
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Financial Economics ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Global growth has slowed markedly, edging closer to falling into recession. Meanwhile, growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, excluding China rebounded, diverging from the global trend, as mobility restrictions were removed. Malaysia's growth during the quarter was also the highest relative to other regional countries. Like its regional peers, the Malaysian economy bucked the global trend and recorded a strong growth in Q3 2022. Malaysia's strong performance in Q3 2022 - and for 2022 overall - was in part due likely to the withdrawals from the employee's provident fund (EPF) which contributed to higher private consumption in Malaysia than in other countries. In addition, improved labor market conditions, other government policy measures such as the increase in the minimum wage and cash assistance programs such as Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia provided additional support. On the supply side, all economic sectors expanded during the period
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  • 63
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stamm, Kersten The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies
    Keywords: Developing Economies ; Emerging Market Growth ; Instititutions and Macroeconomy ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Growth ; Investment Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades through the medium term. This subdued outlook follows a decade-long, geographically widespread investment growth slowdown before the COVID-19 pandemic. An empirical analysis covering 2000-21 finds that periods of strong investment growth were associated with strong real output growth, robust real credit growth, terms of trade improvements, growth in capital inflows, and investment climate reform spurts. Each of these factors has been decreasingly supportive of investment growth since the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Weak investment growth is a concern because it dampens potential growth, is associated with weak trade, and makes achieving the development and climate-related goals more difficult. Policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances, but include comprehensive fiscal and structural reforms, including repurposing of expenditure on inefficient subsidies. Given EMDEs' limited fiscal space, the international community will need to significantly increase international cooperation, official financing and grants, and leverage private sector financing for adequate investment to materialize
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  • 64
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Economic Outlook ; Fiscal Deficit ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Lending ; Public DEBT
    Abstract: The economy has recovered to pre-pandemic levels and, with rising tourist arrivals, is expected to maintain a strong growth and poverty reduction trajectory over the medium term. Commodity price volatility is driving inflation and exerting pressure on fiscal and external balances, through costlier imports and higher subsidies. Despite recent improvements, public debt is expected to remain high, warranting continued efforts to reduce fiscal deficits, including comprehensive subsidy reforms while mitigating impacts on the vulnerable
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Calice, Pietro Biodiversity and Finance: A Preliminary Assessment of Physical Risks for the Banking Sector in Emerging Markets
    Keywords: Climate Change Impact ; Economy and Climate Change ; Ecosystem Services ; Environment, Biodiversity, Biodiversity ; Environmental Risk ; Green Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nature Loss
    Abstract: Economic activity depends on a flourishing biodiversity and intact environment through the provision of ecosystem services. The depletion of these services poses physical risks for the financial sector. This paper attempts to measure the potential exposure of the banking systems in 20 emerging markets to nature loss through their lending portfolio. The results show that banks in emerging markets allocate around half of their credit portfolio to firms whose business processes are highly or very highly dependent on one or more ecosystem services. The results also provide initial and preliminary evidence that points to a negative correlation between country income level and dependency on ecosystem services. Accounting for indirect dependencies on ecosystem services via supply chains and trade could change this observed relationship, however. Furthermore, the highest dependencies on ecosystem services across countries tend to be on climate regulation and flood and storm protection, indicating the interconnectedness of climate change and nature loss
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dinerstein, Marcos Corporate Tax Rates, Allocative Efficiency, and Aggregate Productivity
    Keywords: Corporate Tax Impact On Productivity ; Corporate Tax Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing Sector Tax Data ; Monopolistic Competition ; Productivity ; Tax Code ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of effective corporate tax rates on aggregate total factor productivity. Using Chilean manufacturing data, the paper documents a large dispersion in the effective tax rate faced by firms and a mass of firms facing a 0 percent tax rate. These empirical patterns are incorporated into a standard monopolistic competition model with corporate tax rates. The paper's quantitative findings show that the TFP gains between the economy implied by the Chilean tax code of 1998-2007 and a hypothetical economy without effective corporate tax rate inefficiencies are between 4 and 11 percent. The paper considers counterfactual policies in which all firms face the same tax rate and finds a monotonically decreasing relationship between the level of the tax rate and total factor productivity
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Banuri, Sheheryar The Power of Religion: Islamic Investing in the Lab
    Keywords: Economic Investment and Savings ; Experimental Methods ; Faith-Based Funds ; Faith-Based Investing ; Investor Behavior ; Islamic Investment ; Islamic Mutual Funds ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mutal Funds ; Socially Responsible Investment
    Abstract: Faith-based mutual funds have recently become a growing corner of the mutual fund industry. Morality and ethics are thought to exert an influence on investors' decisions in this segment, although their role in driving such investments is not clear as these funds are also attractive due to their distinct risk-return profile. If nonpecuniary motives are predominant, investors in such funds may be less sensitive to financial performance, resulting in different patterns of fund flows relative to conventional funds. This paper fills the gap in the literature, by providing an express linkage between religious preferences and investment in an Islamic fund. Using an incentivized lab experiment, the analysis compares the extent to which investors with religious preferences are likely to accept inferior financial performance to pursue investments aligned with their religious preferences. The findings show that investment in an Islamic fund is driven by religious preferences and religiosity is strongly tied to investor loyalty in the Islamic fund, with investors more willing to accept reductions in returns and increases in risk. The analysis fails to find that social preferences play a similar role in socially responsible funds. When pitted directly against each other, investors prefer religious investments over socially responsible investments, suggesting that they do not view the two as substitutes
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  • 68
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy Crisis ; Energy Markets ; Environmental Fiscal Measures ; Food and Energy Prices ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: The six countries of the Western Balkans have seen their resilience tested over the last three years. Growth in the Western Balkan economies started strong in early 2022, before moderating toward year-end, but the impact of major shocks, such as electricity and heating outages, has been less severe than expected. Inflation surged to a two-decade high in 2022 in almost all economies, and price pressures remain elevated in early 2023. Higher food and energy prices have affected low-income households especially severely, resulting in a much slower pace of poverty reduction in 2022 despite universal government support. In the medium term, the Western Balkans continues to have a positive outlook, but reforms are needed to rebuild buffers, accelerate the green transition, and to address key structural challenges. The ongoing energy crisis has highlighted the need to accelerate the green transition across Europe, including in the Western Balkans. A key starting point in this regard is to accelerate the move toward carbon pricing and to increase the use of environmental fiscal measures that incentivize households and firms to shift toward lower carbon intensity with respect to economic activity
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Catchment Areas ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Roads ; Vulnerability Assessment
    Abstract: The Kingdom of Lesotho is a landlocked country in southern Africa. Large pockets of the population reside along the Senqu River Valley in the south-eastern reaches of the country, and some of the roads traverse this river to connect to the mountainous areas. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change negatively impacts Lesotho's road network. Sustained land degradation, soil erosion, and increased demand on ecosystem services threatens infrastructure and the health of Lesotho's natural ecosystems, including wetlands. The primary aim of this study was to undertake a review of existing frameworks for climate and environment vulnerability assessments for roads and to adapt these to the Lesotho context in line with Southern African Development Community (SADC) protocol on transport, the National Strategic Development Plan of Lesotho, and the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) Design Guidelines. The adapted climate and environmental risk framework then formed the basis for developing a climate change risk and vulnerability and assessment methodology/tool
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Goldemberg, Diana Minding the Gap: Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization
    Keywords: Aid Effectiveness ; Culture and Development ; Development Outcome ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Impact Evaluation ; Language and Communication ; Machine Learning Method ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Projects
    Abstract: This paper applies novel techniques to long-standing questions of aid effectiveness. It first replicates findings that donor finance is discernibly but weakly associated with sector outcomes in recipient countries. It then shows robustly that donors' own ratings of project success provide limited information on the contribution of those projects to development outcomes. By training a machine learning model on World Bank projects, the paper shows instead that the strongest predictor of these projects' contribution to outcomes is their degree of adaptation to country context, and the largest differences between ratings and actual impact occur in large projects in institutionally weak settings
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Cyclone Freddy ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Environment ; Foreign Exchange ; Inflation ; Kwacha ; Macro-Fiscal Crisis ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters
    Abstract: The Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. This 17th edition was published in July 2023 and is part of an ongoing series published twice each year. The publication intends to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavor to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal Policies ; Inflation ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: While armed clashed have declined, Libya continues to face fragmentation and fragility. The country's fragility is having far-reaching economic and social impact. Social conditions and public service delivery have been affected. Similar to numerous conflict-affected countries, the World Bank refrains from providing quantitative growth and macroeconomic forecasts. Despite the numerous challenges facing the country, the Libyan economy cab ne reconstructed and diversified by leveraging its substantial financial resources building on four critical pillars. The first is reaching a sustainable political agreement on the future of Libya. The second is the preparation of a shared vision on economic and social development that is based on accurate assessments of needs and aspirations. The third is the development of a modern and decentralized public financial management system that ensures adequate sharing of oil wealth and inter-governmental fiscal transfers as well as effective and transparent budget planning, execution, and reporting policies. The fourth is the establishment of a modern and comprehensive social policy that enables the reform of public administration and creates a clear distinction between social transfers and public wages
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Deficit ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Public and Municipal Finance ; SOE ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Eswatini's economy has been characterized by persistent low growth, high fiscal deficits, and unprofitable state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Without significant reform, the country is unlikely to achieve its socioeconomic aspirations, and poverty and unemployment are likely to remain high. These problems are exacerbated by the difficult external environment, with subdued global demand and volatile international prices. In this context, the government of Eswatini recognizes that the country needs a series of policy reforms to unleash the potential of the private sector. It also needs to improve the efficiency of SOEs in strategic sectors, which deliver services to many businesses and households. This report is divided into two parts. Part 1 discusses recent economic developments in the global and domestic economy and assesses Eswatini's short and medium-term prospects. Part 2 reviews the role that SOEs can play in the government's efforts to enhance economic performance. It assesses both their contribution to the economy and their limitations to suggest directions for reform
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio Institutional Trust, Perceptions of Distributive Unfairness, and Income across Salvadoran Municipalities
    Keywords: Attitude Towards Institutions ; Distributive Unfairness ; Governance ; Income and Government Satisfaction ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Preference for Democracy ; Trust
    Abstract: Using multiple waves of two public opinion surveys and a two-way fixed effect model, this paper analyzes how people's perceptions and attitudes towards public institutions shifted with the business cycle in El Salvador during 2004-2018. It finds that individuals' levels of trust toward both the president and the municipal government are positively associated with higher levels of income at the municipality level. Income is also a strong predictor of trust in mass media, confidence in the judicial system and, to a lesser extent, trust in the national legislature but income does not affect trust in the Catholic Church. The relationship between income and trust toward the president and municipalities masks a relevant heterogeneity from a rural-urban divide as well as from differences in municipal state capacity. Further, views of income distribution fairness as well as preferences for democracy are positively shaped by municipality-specific business cycles. In contrast, neither generalized trust nor satisfaction with democracy is empirically associated with income at the municipality level
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Conglomerate Mergers ; Conglomeration ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Digital Conglomerates ; EAP ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Dynamics
    Abstract: Conglomeration has traditionally been prevalent in Asia, a trend that is currently exacerbated by the characteristics of digital markets. While conglomerates offer important benefits, from economies of scale and diversification to the development of new products, they can also have a negative impact on market dynamics. This report examines conglomeration trends in five Asian countries, Malaysia, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam, to better understand whether offline conglomerates are expanding into digital markets vis a vis the expansion of purely digital conglomerates into adjacent and non-adjacent markets. The report focuses on one of the main expansion strategies: conglomerate mergers and acquisitions. To this end, it explores the prevalence of conglomerate mergers, both globally and within the East Asia region, the type of competition scrutiny they are submitted to, and potential aspects to strengthen their review to foster more effective competition policies. The report concludes with a set of key policy recommendations that address the identified risks
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  • 76
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Development Indicators ; Financial Market Monitor ; Human Welfare Indicators ; Macroeconomic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development
    Abstract: The Yemen Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Yemen. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for Yemen's outlook. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to human welfare and development indicators. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, development partners, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Yemen
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eslava, Marcela Business Size, Development, and Inequality in Latin America: A Tale of one Tail
    Keywords: Business Size ; Developing Economies Business Data ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm-Level Datasets ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Micro-Enterprises ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: Using official employment surveys for 45 advanced economies and Latin American countries, this paper shows that the positive cross-country correlation between business size and GDP per capita is tighter than previously found using firm-level datasets and finds a close negative business size-Gini relationship. The paper also finds a closer connection between individual income and business size for workers in less developed countries compared with those in advanced economies. Because employment data address the bias against the smallest productive units that characterize firm-level datasets, our approach uniquely assesses and highlights the dominance of the left tail of the business size distribution in less developed countries
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Marioli, Francisco Arroyo Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Commodity Dependent Exporters ; Commodity Exporters ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Emerging Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Volatility
    Abstract: This paper studies the volatility of fiscal policy in a large sample of countries with a focus on emerging markets and developing economies and commodity exporters over 1990-2021. The findings show that fiscal policy has been more volatile in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies, and in commodity exporters relative to non-commodity exporters over this period. The degree of commodity dependence, and institutional and policy variables can explain a large percentage of the cross-country variation in volatility. The existence of fiscal rules, a more liberalized capital account, and more flexible exchange rates are all associated with lower fiscal policy volatility. The paper also shows the negative macroeconomic consequences of this additional volatility on economic growth, finding that, over a 30-year period, it can explain 8 percent of the income gap between the emerging markets and developing economies and advanced economies in the sample
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  • 79
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (17 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mayr, Kentaro Fossil Fuel Prices and Air Pollution: Evidence from a Panel of 133 Countries
    Keywords: Air Pollution ; Air Pollution Reduction ; Economic Statistics ; Energy Subsidies ; Environmental Impact ; Fossil Fuel Prices ; Fuel Subsidies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Fossil fuel combustion is a major contributor to urban air pollution, which in turn can lead to negative health outcomes. While the relationship between fuel prices and consumption has been extensively documented, the knock-on impact on air quality is less studied. Detailed knowledge on the price-pollution channel is valuable in designing effective pollution reduction measures. This paper analyzes the impact of gasoline, diesel, and coal prices on air pollution in 133 countries over a 19-year period. The dataset combines prices, consumption, country-specific variables, and annual average fine particulate matter concentrations in each country's capital city. Using the common correlated effects estimator, the analysis finds a robust negative relationship between gasoline and diesel prices and particle concentrations. A USD 1 increase in the average annual retail price of these common transport fuels is associated with at least a 22.2 microgram per cubic meter decrease in annual average fine particulate matter concentrations. In contrast, there is no significant effect for coal, which is often used in power generation and industrial applications, making it less responsive to short-term price variations. Overall, the results are in line with earlier studies, as price increases are correlated with improved urban air quality for transport fuels
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Zaveri, Esha D Droughts and Deficits: The Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth
    Keywords: Agricultural Growth and Rural Development ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Resilience ; Drought ; GDP Growth and Drought ; Green Water ; Land Use ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Rainfall ; Rainfall Shocks ; Rural Development ; Soil Moisture
    Abstract: As climate change intensifies, dry rainfall shocks and droughts are a growing concern. At the same time, scientific evidence suggests that the world has surpassed the safe planetary boundary for green water, which is water stored in biomass and soil that is crucial for maintaining climate resilience. Yet, evidence at the global scale of these combined forces on economic growth is poorly understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap by using data on annual subnational gross domestic product for 82 countries from 1990-2014. Using rainfall shocks as plausibly exogenous variations in a spatially specific panel at the grid level, the analysis finds that the global effects of droughts on economic activity are substantial. Moderate to extreme droughts reduce gross domestic product per capita growth between 0.39 and 0.85 percentage point, on average, depending on the level of development and baseline climatic conditions, with low- and middle-income countries in arid areas sustaining the highest relative losses. In high-income countries, moderate droughts have no impact, and only extreme droughts have adverse effects, reducing growth by about 0.3 percentage point, a little less than half the impact felt in the low- and middle-income country sample for the same intensity of drought. Crucially, the impact of a dry shock of a given magnitude also depends on antecedent green water availability. The results show that increases in soil moisture in previous years can neutralize the harmful impacts from a dry shock, with suggestive evidence that local and upstream forest cover are key channels through which these impacts manifest. These findings have important implications for measuring the economic impact of droughts and can inform adaptation investments
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Space ; Growth ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Reforms
    Abstract: Global economic activity registered resilient growth in early 2023 but is losing momentum. Advanced economies growth slowed less-than-anticipated inearly 2023 as tight labor markets drove wages up, preventing a sharp decline in consumption. However, global growth slowed slightly in Q2 2023, with services growth cooling gradually and manufacturing remaining soft. Global inflation has moderated in recent months, largely reflecting favorable base effects from commodity prices falling below their 2022 peaks, along with abating supply chain pressures. Global trade in services strengthened in 1H 2023 thanks to the easing of mobility restrictions but trade in goods slowed due to weakening global industrial production
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Keywords: DEBT ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Excessive Credit Growth ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion Gaps ; Financial Sector Reform ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The Republic of Korea's astonishing economic development commenced shortly after the end of the Korean war. Today, Korea is the world's tenth largest economy based on gross domestic product, a key development partner of the World Bank Group, an important contributor to the International Development Association, the fund established to support the world's poorest countries, and a unique international donor. Over the past decade, the East Asia and Pacific region has experienced significant economic growth and development. This has been especially evident in the financial sector. Nevertheless, many challenges remain. Risks such as excessive credit growth, asset bubbles, high levels of household and corporate debt have emerged, increasing the vulnerability of the financial sector to shocks. Consequently, ensuring the stability and resilience of the financial sector is crucial for sustainable economic development in the region. When it comes to financial inclusion, despite the good progress made in many developing countries in the region, there are still significant gaps across the region. A large portion of the population in some countries in the region especially in rural areas and among vulnerable groups, still lack access to formal financial services such as savings account and payment systems. This hampers their ability to save, invest and participate in the formal economy, limiting their economic opportunities and potential growth. Against this backdrop, with the support of the Korea Trust Fund, the World Bank has made a significant impact in enhancing the financial sector in the East Asia and Pacific region. These selected stories speak to the positive impact that the Seoul Center's partnership with the Ministry of Economy and Finance has had within the recipient countries. The booklet presents these in detail
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendes, Arthur The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
    Keywords: Bartik Instrument ; Bolsa Familia ; Cash Transfer ; Developing Countries ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Employment ; Fiscal Multiplier ; Informality ; Local Multiplier ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Relative Multiplier ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil's Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with RD 100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (68 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als He, He Vehicle and Fuel Taxation for Transport Demand Management: Learnings from the Literature through a Development Lens
    Keywords: Cost of Automobile Ownership ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Externality ; Fuel Taxation ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Infrastructure Finance ; International Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Motorization ; Tax Collection ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Vehicle Taxation
    Abstract: Correctly pricing private vehicles and their use is paramount to building sustainable, safe, and equitable transportation systems. However, determining the "right" price - the combination of taxes on vehicle purchase, ownership, and use - is a complex problem. Although a rich literature exists on the subject, it is built on evidence from developed countries. This paper synthesizes the lessons learned from the literature, theoretical and empirical, on vehicle and fuel taxation for managing private vehicle demand. In particular, the paper examines the efficiency and distributional impacts of purchase, ownership, and use taxes. The literature is unequivocal that taxing use dominates taxing purchase or ownership on efficiency grounds. Nonetheless, the latter instruments can still have important roles to play, for example, addressing specific market failures, for equity and political acceptability considerations, or for ease of enforcement. The paper also discusses the practical challenges of saliency, gaming, and evasion of taxes; how the effectiveness of taxes as policy instruments also depends on the availability of alternatives to driving; and what the emergence of electric vehicles means for optimal taxation. Importantly, the paper considers how these lessons, mostly derived from high-income countries with mature automobile markets, apply to developing contexts. In addition to the policy discussion, the paper conducts two exercises compiling empirical evidence. It compiles and compares estimates of the externality costs associated with private vehicle use, including congestion, local air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, injuries, and noise. Similarly, it compiles and compares demand response elasticities to vehicle purchase, ownership, and use taxes. Both serve as useful references for researchers, development practitioners, and policy makers
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Goes, Carlos Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks
    Keywords: Gender and Economics ; Gender and Social Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Segmentation ; Gendered Poverty ; International Trade ; Jobs ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Gender segmentation in labor markets shapes the local effects of international trade. This paper develops a theory that embeds trade in gender-segmented labor markets and shows that in this framework, foreign demand shocks may increase or decrease the female-to-male employment ratio. If a foreign demand shock from a relevant market happens in a female-intensive (male-intensive) sector, the model predicts that the female-to-male employment ratio should increase (decrease). The paper then uses plausibly exogenous variation in the exposure of Tunisian local labor markets to foreign demand shocks and shows that the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction. In Tunisia, a country with a high degree of gender segmentation in the labor markets, foreign demand shocks have been relatively larger in male-intensive sectors. This induced a decrease in the female-to-male employment ratio, with households likely substituting female for male labor supply
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; IFC Platforms ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; SDGs
    Abstract: Recurring development challenges and new compounding crises affecting client countries and firms constrain the ambition of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to contribute to attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The recurring challenges, including insufficient private sector participation in development financing, continue to affect emerging markets and developing economies and the firms within them. Two related initiatives-the IFC capital increase and the IFC 3.0 strategy-underpin IFC's goal to contribute to the SDGs by 2030. IFC's capital increase package was based on the IFC 3.0 strategy, which requires creating new markets through advisory and upstream services and mobilizing private capital from new sources and through new approaches (IFC 2017, 2018, 2020a). IFC has introduced a platforms approach to scale up its interventions in accordance with IFC 3.0 and the capital increase objectives. IFC defines platforms as thematic interventions-at a regional, global, or sectoral level-designed to address a specific development challenge (IFC 2022b). The main purpose of the evaluation is to assess whether the platforms approach offers IFC a means to achieve its capital increase and IFC 3.0 objectives while meeting the Board's and clients' expectations
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  • 87
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip The Climate Implications of Ending Global Poverty
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Co2 Emission Goals ; Environment and Poverty ; Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty and Climate Ambitions
    Abstract: Previous studies have explored potential conflicts between ending poverty and limiting global warming, by focusing on the carbon emissions of the world's poorest. This paper instead focuses on economic growth as the driver of poverty alleviation and estimates the emissions associated with the growth needed to eradicate poverty. With this framing, eradicating poverty requires not only increasing the consumption of poor people, but also the consumption of non-poor people in poor countries. Even in this more pessimistic framing, the global emissions increase associated with eradicating extreme poverty is small, at 2.37 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide in 2050, or 4.9 percent of 2019 global emissions. These additional emissions would not materially affect the global climate change challenge: global emissions would need to be reduced by 2.08 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year, instead of the 2.0 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year needed in the absence of any extreme poverty eradication. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency, and decarbonization of energy can significantly ease this trade-off: assuming the best historical performance in all countries, the additional emissions for poverty eradication are reduced by 90 percent. Therefore, the need to eradicate extreme poverty cannot be used as a justification for reducing the world's climate ambitions. When trade-offs exist, the eradication of extreme poverty can be prioritized with negligible emissions implications. The estimated emissions of eradicating poverty are 15.3 percent of 2019 emissions with the lower-middle-income poverty line at USD 3.65 per day and or 45.7 percent of 2019 emissions with the USD 6.85 upper-middle-income poverty line. The challenge to align the world's development and climate objectives is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing middle-income standards of living in a sustainable manner
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Behr, Daniela M Estimating House Prices in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Big Data Approach
    Keywords: Emerging Market Housing Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Random Forest ; Real Estate Data Collection ; Residential Real Estate Comparison ; Web Scraping Data
    Abstract: Despite the relevance of house prices for a variety of stakeholders as well as for macroeconomic and monetary policy making, reliable, publicly available house price data are largely absent in emerging markets and developing economies. Filling this void, this paper presents a systematic approach to collecting, analyzing, and assessing private property prices in emerging markets and developing economies. The paper uses data scraped from five countries' largest real estate websites where private properties are listed for sale, to obtain price data and property attributes to establish a comprehensive data set that allows for both intra- and inter-country comparison of residential property prices. It then outlines the usability of these data by employing random forest estimation to predict the price of a standard housing unit-the basic house price-that is comparable across countries. While this approach is also applicable to filling wide data gaps in the provision of private property prices in developed economies, the paper focuses on how this approach can be applied to emerging markets and developing economies, where private property price data are particularly scarce
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Impacts ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Support ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policies
    Abstract: More than three years after the first COVID-19 case was discovered in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, it is time to take stock of the lasting effects-and opportunities-of the pandemic and identify which policies may have helped stem the economic losses suffered by households and firms. To do so, this regional report examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households and firms in six countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. This volume examines: (a) the links between impacts on firms and households, in particular through the employment channel, and (b) governments' fiscal responses to the COVID crisis, through transfers, subsidies, and taxes. It identifies and explains changes in household well-being by examining the economic effects of the pandemic on labor markets. As the source of employment and wage income, businesses have a direct role in determining jobs and earnings, and, indirectly, welfare, poverty, and inequality. When faced with a shock, firms responded by adjusting employment, reducing wages, increasing prices, and reducing services provided. All of these channels directly affected households' wellbeing. For this reason, the report focuses on firms in addition to households. Governments responded through various instruments, providing transfers and subsidies and lowering the tax burden to both households and firms
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (21 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fajardo-Heyward, Paola Assessing the Success of National Human Rights Action Plans through a Political Economy Lens: The Case of Chile
    Keywords: Human Rights ; Human Rights Action Plan ; Human Rights Policy ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Political Human Rights Consensus ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: National human rights action plans turn state commitments on human rights into policy. After three decades of numerous countries implementing these plans, the few existing assessments of their success are inconclusive. This paper develops a political economy framework to complement previous studies. The approach hypothesizes that such action plans will be successful only if they are built on political consensus; their perceived political benefits exceed their costs; and governments have adequate resources to design and implement them. The paper tests this hypothesis in Chile, a country with a recent history of human rights violations and sustained inequalities that is legally bound to produce human rights action plans. The findings show that these plans have not been successful in Chile, as none of the three conditions is satisfied. The paper contends that the proposed political economy framework can be replicated across multiple national action plans, countries, and contexts
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Biro, Aniko The Labor Market Effects of Disability Benefit Loss
    Keywords: Benefit Reduction ; Disability ; Disability Insurance ; Disability Welfare Reform ; Disabled Persons Poverty ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Employability Program ; Employment and Unemployment ; Joblessness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Persons with Disabilities ; Public Welfare ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Disability benefits provide social insurance against the risk of losing working capacity, as well as an important source of income for individuals with disabilities. They are also costly and tend to reduce labor supply. Although spending can be contained by careful targeting, correcting past flaws in eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. This paper studies a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries. Leveraging age and health cutoffs in the reassessment, the paper estimates employment responses to loss or reduction of benefits. The findings show that among those who left disability insurance due to the reform, 58 percent were employed in the primary labor market, 6 percent participated in public works, and 36 percent were out of work without benefits in the post-reform period. The consequences of leaving disability insurance differed sharply by pre-reform employment status. Among the beneficiaries who were employed in the pre-reform year, 81 percent worked, while only 33 percent of those without pre-reform employment did. The gains of the reform in activating beneficiaries were small and strongly driven by pre-reform employment status. This points to the importance of combining financial incentives with broader labor market programs that increase employability
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bernini, Andrea Corruption as a Push and Pull Factor of Migration Flows: Evidence from European Countries
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Corruption ; Economic and Social Cost of Corruption ; Gravity Model ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Impact of Corruption ; Internal Migration ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Migration ; Remittances
    Abstract: Conclusive evidence on the relationship between corruption and migration has remained scant in the literature to date. Using data from 2008 to 2018 on bilateral migration flows across European Union and European Free Trade Association countries and four measures of corruption, this paper shows that corruption acts as both a push factor and a pull factor for migration patterns. Based on a gravity model, a one-unit increase in the corruption level in the origin country is associated with a 11 percent increase in out-migration. The same one-unit increase in the destination country is associated with a 10 percent decline in in-migration
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Marguerie, Alicia Savings Facilitation or Capital Injection? Impacts and Spillovers of Livelihood Interventions in Post-Conflict Cate D'Ivoire
    Keywords: Cash Grant ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Inclusion ; Economic Investment and Savings ; Graduation Programs ; Livilihood Interventions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Post-Conflict Intervention ; Poverty ; Savings ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Transfers
    Abstract: Policy makers grapple with the optimal design of multidimensional strategies to improve poor households' livelihoods. To address financial constraints, are capital injections needed, or is savings mobilization sufficient This paper tests the direct effects and local spillovers of three instruments to relax financial constraints, each combined with micro-entrepreneurship training. "Cash grants" and "cash grants with repayment" directly inject capital, while "village savings and loan associations" (VSLAs) promote more efficient group saving. The randomized controlled trial took place in western regions of Cote d'Ivoire that were affected by a post-electoral crisis in 2011 and an earlier conflict. The interventions had differential effects on the dynamics of savings and productive asset accumulation. The cash grant modalities generated investments in startup capital, although nearly 30 percent of the grant was saved. In contrast, village savings and loan associations did not increase total savings but gradually induced investments, so that productive assets caught up with cash grant recipients after 15 months. Positive local spillovers on savings and independent activities were also observed. Yet, investments in independent activities were not sufficient to increase profits, possibly because they were limited due to high precautionary saving motives in the post-conflict study setting
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Agriculture and Food Security ; Economic Shocks ; Economic Theory and Research ; Food Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning Advances ; Macroeconomic Monitoring ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: COVID-19 Impact ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equity and Development ; Household Survey Data ; Household Survey Design ; Impact of Shocks on Households ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Questionnaire Design ; Shocks and Household Welfare
    Abstract: Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has experienced multiple global crises in the last few years. As countries adapt to a new normal, multi-topic household surveys should also be adapted to account for the impacts of shocks on household welfare. By reviewing the standard household survey questionnaires included in the guidebook, capturing what matters: essential guidelines for designing household surveys, the authors provide technical guidance on issues to consider when reviewing, designing, or updating questionnaires for household surveys during or after a major shock - relying on lessons learned from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study program
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baldassarre, Alessio Simulating the Effect of Business Tax Abolition through a New Regional CGE Model: Evidence from Italy
    Keywords: Applied Equalibrium Model ; Business Tax ; CGE Model ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional General Equilibrium Model ; Regional Social Accounting Matrix
    Abstract: The main goal of regional computable general equilibrium models is to analyze how different regions within a specific area react to certain shocks. Therefore, countries with high heterogeneity among regions, like Italy, constitute an interesting case study for regional computable general equilibrium model analysis. This paper presents the regional part of the new (recursive) dynamic single-country computable general equilibrium model called the Italian Regional and Environmental Computable General Equilibrium of the Department of Finance, based on the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium model of the World Bank. A new regional social accounting matrix for Italy (20 regions at the Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics level) has been constructed. The social accounting matrix is used as input data to simulate the abolition of the regional tax on productive activities (regional business tax) through three different scenarios, focusing on the effects on gross domestic product, regional value added, and welfare. The results show that under the modeling assumptions, the complete abolition of the regional tax on productive activities would positively impact Italian economic growth and regional welfare
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  • 97
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
    Keywords: Emerging Markets ; Growth Expectations ; Human Capital Accumulation ; Labor Force Participation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Production Function ; Slow Growth ; Social Development
    Abstract: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario-by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year-if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Growth and Job Creation ; Inclusion and Equity ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resilience ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sustainability
    Abstract: The Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will seek to assess how well the Bank Group-supported strategy was aligned with Georgia's main development challenges and how effective the Bank Group's support was in addressing these challenges. The evaluation seeks to identify lessons that support the further adaptation and refinement of Bank Group engagement in support of the country's development priorities
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict ; Damage Assessment ; Economic Assistance ; Economic Challenges ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Insecurity ; Fiscal Policies ; Food Inaccessibility ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Syria ; Trade
    Abstract: The World Bank's teams have been resorting to the use of a mix of standard tools and innovative geospatial and remote-based data sources (e.g., nighttime lights, shipping-position data, traffic congestion data, aviation statistics, mobile phone location data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and conflict intensity maps) to reveal economic trends and analyze unrecorded activities that are prominent in war-torn economies like Syria. Macroeconomic conditions in Syria have substantially deteriorated since the start of the war in Ukraine. Already very high, the vulnerability of Syrian households is on the rise. Subject to high uncertainty, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2023, following a 3.5 percent decline in 2022
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks
    Keywords: Economic Insecurity ; Economic Sentiment ; Expectations ; Living Standards ; Living Standards Measurement Survey Data ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Phone Survey ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality of Life and Leisure ; Schocks ; Social Development ; Uncertainty
    Abstract: Against the background of high inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food insecurity, this study documents the state of economic sentiments and expectations of households in five African countries--Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda--that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. Leveraging nationally representative phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five countries report that their financial situation and their country's economic situation have worsened significantly in the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are more positive, there are marked differences across countries that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly report prices to have increased considerably over the past 12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of households--home to 206 million individuals--further expect that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment, and sentiments about the household financial situation, country economic situation, price increases, and climate shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial situation has worsened in the past year are consistently more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure households, in particular, are not only more likely to report a worsening financial situation in the recent past and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks
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