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  • Online Resource  (3,133)
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  • 2010-2014  (3,125)
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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (3,133)
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  • Online Resource  (3,133)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: The main objective of the study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of HIV and health financing needs, investment opportunities, and health system development in the context of the Government of Niger's HIV National Strategic Plan (NSP) 2013-17. The analysis provides support for HIV policy decision-making, investment scenarios and programmatic targeting and prioritization. In addition, the analysis helps Niger build the case for HIV and health impact investment including delivering estimates of health care savings as a result of these investments. The analysis was implemented by the World Bank in collaboration with UNAIDS from a request for analytical support from the Government of Niger. The study involved a desk review of HIV- and health-related evidence, epidemic trends and financial modeling. The Optima model (formerly Prevtool) was used to estimate optimal resource allocation during the NSP, and the impact and cost-effectiveness of past HIV investments. A financial commitment framework was used to estimate longer-term costs and savings of the HIV program and the fiscal dimension of HIV in Niger
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed, bringing down average borrowing costs to their lowest level since the spring of 2013. Stock markets have also recovered rapidly from a significant sell-off in January/February, despite rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of disappointing activity in the first quarter of the year. As presented in the June 2014 edition of Global Economic Prospects, a more favorable global environment is reflected in upward revisions to capital inflow forecasts for developing countries, now projected to remain broad-ly stable as a percentage of GDP in 2014 and 2015, at around 5.6 percent, before declining again in 2016, to 5.1 percent. While baseline forecasts assume an orderly in-crease in long-term interest rates in high-income countries, the risk of more abrupt adjustments from current low levels has recently increased. Escalating geopolitical tensions or financial stress in some developing countries could also potentially trigger a sudden re-pricing of risk. Despite the recent narrowing of current account deficits in some developing countries, many remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and/or significant currency depreciations, which could put additional strain on corporate and bank balance sheets
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Debt Management Performance Assessment
    Abstract: In response to a request from the Government of Republic of Haiti, a World Bank mission team undertook a debt management performance assessment (DeMPA) mission to Port-au-Prince, Haiti between March 13 and 21, 2014. The mission comprised Zeinab Partow (Senior Economist, PRMED Team Leader, World Bank), Karen Bihr (Project Manager, UNCTAD, Implementing Partner), Mame Pierre Kamara (Consultant), Patrick van der Wansem (Consultant), Mamonjiarisoa Volatantely Randrianjanaka (World Bank and Ministry of Finance of Madagascar) and Evans Jadotte (Economist, LCSPE, World Bank). This report includes the results of the assessment. The mission met with officials at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Central Bank of Haiti, the Ministry of Planning and External Cooperation, the Supreme Audit Institution, the Prime Minister's Office, as well as with financial sector entities. The team wishes to sincerely thank the authorities for their collaboration and support of the mission team, for the rich and substantive discussions that took place, and for their hospitality
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  • 4
    ISBN: 9781464803611
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (pages cm))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Edition: 2015 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Druckausg. A measured approach to ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity
    DDC: 338.91091724
    Keywords: Economic development International cooperation ; Poverty International cooperation ; Poverty Measurement ; Economic assistance ; Economic development International cooperation ; Poverty International cooperation ; Poverty Measurement ; Economic assistance ; Economic development International cooperation ; Poverty International cooperation ; Poverty Measurement ; Armut ; Entwicklung ; Tendenz ; Prognose ; Bekämpfung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Gemeinwohl ; Konzeption ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Economic assistance ; Economic development ; Poverty ; Poverty ; Developing countries ; Developing countries Economic policy ; Developing countries Economic policy ; Developing countries Economic policy ; Erde
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index. - Description based on print version record
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  • 5
    ISBN: 9781464801525
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (372 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Latin American Development Forum
    Abstract: The seven million teachers of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are the critical actors in the region's efforts to improve education quality and raise student learning levels, which lag far behind those of OECD countries and East Asian countries such as China. This book documents the high economic stakes around teacher quality, benchmarks the current performance of LAC's teachers, and delineates the key issues. These include low standards for entry into teacher training, poor quality training programs that are detached from the realities of the classroom, unattractive career incentives, and weak support for teachers once they are on the job. New research conducted for this report in close to 15,000 classrooms in seven different LAC countries - the largest cross-country study of this kind to date - provides a first-ever insight into how the region's teachers perform inside the classroom. It documents that the average teacher in LAC loses the equivalent of one day of instructional time per week because of inadequate preparation, excessive time on administration (taking attendance, passing out papers) and a surprisingly high share of time physically absent from the classrooms where they should be teaching. Teachers also make limited use of available learning materials, espcially those using information and communications technology (ICT), and are unable to keep the majority of their students engaged. The book sets out the three priority lines of reform needed to produce great teachers in LAC: policies to recruit better teachers; programs to groom teachers and improve their skills once they are in service; and stronger incentives to motivate teachers to perform their best throughout their career. In every area, the book distills the latest evidence from inside and outside the region to provide practical guidance to policymakers in the design of effective programs and sustainable reforms. A final chapter analyzes the politics of recent major teacher reforms in Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico, chronicling the prominent role of teachers' unions and the political and communications strategies that have underpinned successful reforms
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464803444
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (232 p)
    Edition: 2015 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Report
    Abstract: Development economics and policy are due for a redesign. In the past few decades, research from across the natural and social sciences has provided stunning insight into the way people think and make decisions. Whereas the first generation of development policy was based on the assumption that humans make decisions deliberatively and independently, and on the basis of consistent and self-interested preferences, recent research shows that decision making rarely proceeds this way. People think automatically: when deciding, they usually draw on what comes to mind effortlessly. People also think socially: social norms guide much of behavior, and many people prefer to cooperate as long as others are doing their share. And people think with mental models: what they perceive and how they interpret it depend on concepts and worldviews drawn from their societies and from shared histories. The World Development Report 2015 offers a concrete look at how these insights apply to development policy. It shows how a richer view of human behavior can help achieve development goals in many areas, including early childhood development, household finance, productivity, health, and climate change. It also shows how a more subtle view of human behavior provides new tools for interventions. Making even minor adjustments to a decision-making context, designing interventions based on an understanding of social preferences, and exposing individuals to new experiences and ways of thinking may enable people to improve their lives. The Report opens exciting new avenues for development work. It shows that poverty is not simply a state of material deprivation, but also a “tax†? on cognitive resources that affects the quality of decision making. It emphasizes that all humans, including experts and policy makers, are subject to psychological and social influences on thinking, and that development organizations could benefit from procedures to improve their own deliberations and decision making. It demonstrates the need for more discovery, learning, and adaptation in policy design and implementation. The new approach to development economics has immense promise. Its scope of application is vast. This Report introduces an important new agenda for the development community
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bundervoet, Tom What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?
    Abstract: Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings show that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move toward non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cebeci, Tolga Impact of Export Destinations on Firm Performance
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the role of export destinations on productivity, employment, and wages of Turkish firms by comparing the performance of firms that export to low-income destinations and high-income destinations with firms that do not export. A combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods are employed on a rich set of firm observables, including sector, region, employment, total factor productivity (TFP), capital intensity, wages, support from government, ownership, and the research and development intensity of firms. Four sets of findings emerge from the analysis: i) Export entry has a positive causal effect on firm TFP and employment and this effect is strengthened as a firm continues to export. ii) In contrast, export entry has a moderate wage effect that emerges only with a lag. iii) Unlike exporting to high-income destinations, exporting to low-income destinations does not result in significantly higher firm TFP and wages. iv) The employment effect of exporting to low-income destinations is comparable to that of exporting to high-income destinations
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Miller, Margaret Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable?
    Abstract: This paper presents a systematic and comprehensive meta-analysis of the literature on financial education interventions. The analysis focuses on financial education studies designed to strengthen the financial knowledge and behaviors of consumers. The analysis identifies 188 papers and articles that present impact results of interventions designed to increase consumers' financial knowledge (financial literacy) or skills, attitudes, and behaviors (financial capability). These papers are diverse across a number of dimensions, including objectives of the program intervention, expected outcomes, intensity and duration of the intervention, delivery channel used, and type of population targeted. However, there are a few key outcome indicators where a subset of papers are comparable, including those that address savings behavior, defaults on loans, and financial skills, such as record keeping. The results from the meta analysis indicate that financial literacy and capability interventions can have a positive impact in some areas (increasing savings and promoting financial skills such as record keeping) but not in others (credit default)
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Yamauchi, Futoshi An Alternative Estimate of School-Based Management Impacts on Students' Achievements
    Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the impact of school-based management on students' test scores in the Philippines. Estimation results using double differencing combined with propensity score matching show that school-based management increases the average national achievement test score by 4.2 points over three years. The increase in mathematics reached 5.7 points. This is larger than the estimate previously reported from the Philippines, probably because the sample schools had learned about implementation of school-based management from experiences accumulated in other provinces that introduced it earlier. The empirical results also show that schools with experienced principals and teachers are eager to introduce school-based management
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Raggl, Anna K Economic Growth in Ghana
    Abstract: This paper employs a simple cross-country panel framework to assess the determinants of growth in Ghana's gross domestic product over the past four decades. A set of standard covariates is used to explain growth rates. Natural resource variables are included because the effects of natural resource rents in gross domestic products are of particular interest for Ghana. Using the preferred specification, Ghana's growth potential is predicted for the upcoming decades under different scenarios. The results indicate that under the most pessimistic scenario of no improvements in the determinants of growth compared with the period 2005-09, Ghana's gross domestic product per capita growth rates will stagnate at approximately 4.5 percent during the next decade and decrease thereafter. If the policy measures and country characteristics improve in the way they did in the past three decades, average per capita growth rates of roughly 5.5 percent could be reached during 2015-34. Taking into account the expected oil production until 2034 adds 0.6 percentage points to projected gross domestic product growth rates on average
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lockheed, Marlaine E Teacher Opinions on Performance Incentives
    Abstract: This paper uses data from a post-hoc evaluation of a performance-based teacher incentive program in the Kyrgyz Republic to examine the opinions of teachers receiving different pay bonuses based on their performance as assessed by external evaluators. Overall, teacher opinions of the program were favorable, although teachers who received lower performance ratings held less favorable opinions about the motivational aspects of the program. Despite this, lower-rated teachers were more likely to report that they used what they learned to evaluate their own teaching, as compared with more highly rated teachers, and were more likely to take professional development courses in the years following the program's implementation
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calderón, César Ride the Wild Surf
    Abstract: Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eichengreen, Barry Tapering Talk
    Abstract: In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John Development through Seasonal Worker Programs
    Abstract: Seasonal worker programs are increasingly seen as offering the potential to be part of international development policy. New Zealand's Recognised Seasonal Employer program is one of the first and most prominent of programs designed with this perspective. This paper provides a detailed examination of this policy through the first six seasons. This includes the important role of policy facilitation measures taken by governments and aid agencies. The evolution of the program in terms of worker numbers is discussed, along with new data on the (high) degree of circularity in worker movements, and new data on (very low) worker overstay rates. There appears to have been little displacement of New Zealand workers, and new data show Recognised Seasonal Employer workers to be more productive than local labor and that workers appear to gain productivity as they return for subsequent seasons. The program has also benefitted the migrants participating in the program, with increases in per capita incomes, expenditure, savings, and subjective well-being. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the program is largely living up to its promise of a "triple win" for migrants, their sending countries in the Pacific, and New Zealand
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Agénor, Pierre-Richard Access to Finance, Product Innovation and Middle-Income Traps
    Abstract: This paper studies interactions between access to finance, product innovation, and labor supply in a two-period overlapping generations model with an endogenous skill distribution and credit market frictions. In the model lack of access to finance (induced by high monitoring costs) has an adverse effect on innovation activity not only directly but also indirectly, because too few individuals may choose to invest in skills. If monitoring costs fall with the number of successful projects, multiple equilibria may emerge, one of which, a middle-income trap, characterized by low wages in the design sector, a low share of the labor force engaged in innovation activity, and low growth. A sufficiently ambitious policy aimed at alleviating constraints on access to finance by innovators may allow a country to move away from such a trap by promoting the production of ideas and improving incentives to invest in skills
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Avdeenko, Alexandra International Interventions to Build Social Capital
    Abstract: Over the past decade the international community, especially the World Bank, has conducted programs to increase local public service delivery in developing countries by improving local governing institutions and creating social capital. This paper evaluates one such program in Sudan to answer the question: Can the international community change the grassroots civic culture of developing countries to increase social capital? The paper offers three contributions. First, it uses lab-in-the-field measures to focus on the effects of the program on pro-social preferences without the confounding influence of any program- induced changes on local governing institutions. Second, it tests whether the program led to denser social networks in recipient communities. Based on these two measures, the effect of the program was a precisely estimated zero. However, in a retrospective survey, respondents from program communities characterized their behavior as being more pro-social and their communities more socially cohesive. This leads to a third contribution of the paper: it provides evidence for the hypothesis, stated by several scholars in the literature, that retrospective survey measures of social capital over biased evidence of a positive effect of these programs. Regardless of one's faith in retrospective self-reported survey measures, the results clearly point to zero impact of the program on pro-social preferences and social network density. Therefore, if the increase in self-reported behaviors is accurate, it must be because of social sanctions that enforce compliance with pro-social norms through mechanisms other than the social networks that were measured
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Onder, Harun Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
    Abstract: Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Klapper, Leora New Firm Registration and the Business Cycle
    Abstract: This paper uses new panel data on the number of new firm registrations in 109 countries during 2002-2012 to study the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth. The data show strong evidence of a pro-cyclical pattern in entrepreneurship. An examination of heterogeneous relationships between new firm registration and the business cycle finds that higher levels of financial development and better business environments are associated with stronger pro-cyclicality of entrepreneurship both across countries and within countries over time. The results are robust to various measures of business regulation, such as the cost and time of starting a new firm and closing an insolvent firm. These findings suggest that fostering an efficient regulatory environment for the financial and private sector is important for encouraging a speedier recovery in the formation of new firms during economic expansions and aiding the efficient wind-down of insolvent firms during economic slowdowns
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Farazi, Subika Informal Firms and Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: Many firms in the developing world-including a majority of micro, small, and medium enterprises-operate in the informal economy. The informal firms face a variety of constraints, making it harder for them to do business and grow. Lack of access to finance is often cited as the biggest operational constraint these firms face. This paper documents the use of finance and financing patterns of informal firms, highlights differences between use of finance by formal and informal firms, and identifies the most significant characteristics of informal firms that are associated with higher use of financial services. The analysis shows that use of loans and bank accounts for business by informal firms is very low and a vast majority finances their day-to-day operations and investments through sources other than financial institutions (internal funds, moneylenders, family, and friends). A majority of informal firm owners would like their firms to become formal but do not do so as it would require them to pay taxes. Registered firms are 54 percent more likely to have a bank account and 32 percent more likely to have loans. Results also show that firm size, the level of education of the owner, and whether the owner has a job in the formal sector are significantly associated with financial inclusion of informal firms
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Schady, Norbert Wealth Gradients in Early Childhood Cognitive Development in Five Latin American Countries
    Keywords: 2003-2010 ; Frühkindliche Bildung ; Bildungsertrag ; Sozialer Status ; Sprache ; Robustes Verfahren ; Lateinamerika
    Abstract: Research from the United States shows that gaps in early cognitive and noncognitive abilities appear early in the life cycle. Little is known about this important question for developing countries. This paper provides new evidence of sharp differences in cognitive development by socioeconomic status in early childhood for five Latin American countries. To help with comparability, the paper uses the same measure of receptive language ability for all five countries. It finds important differences in development in early childhood across countries, and steep socioeconomic gradients within every country. For the three countries where panel data to follow children over time exists, there are few substantive changes in scores once children enter school. These results are robust to different ways of defining socioeconomic status, to different ways of standardizing outcomes, and to selective non-response on the measure of cognitive development
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gutierrez, Eva Mobile Money Services Development
    Abstract: This study intends to increase understanding of how different types of mobile money services have developed in different environments. For this purpose, two countries were selected, the Republic of Korea and Uganda. From these study cases, some conclusions emerge. The development of mobile banking services can appear at different stages of financial sector development, but it requires a vibrant and competitive telecommunications sector. The regulatory environment does not need to be very sophisticated for the mobile industry to emerge. However, some elements appear to be important. The legal framework should allow (or at least not explicitly forbid) nonbank financial institutions to issue money and use banking agents or correspondents. To ensure wider use of the service by the population, it is important to educate the population on the benefits of mobile money services
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Yamauchi, Futoshi Wage Growth, Landholding, and Mechanization in Agriculture
    Abstract: This paper uses farm panel data from Indonesia to examine dynamic patterns of land use, capital investments, and wages in agriculture. The empirical analysis shows that an increase in real wages has induced the substitution of labor by machines among relatively large farmers. Large farmers tend to increase the scale of operation by renting in more land when real wages increase. Machines and land are complementary if the scale of operation is greater than a threshold size. In contrast, such a dynamic change was not observed among relatively small holders, which implies a divergence in the movement of the production frontier between Java and off-Java regions given that the majority of small farmers are concentrated in Java
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cantens, Thomas Customs, Brokers, and Informal Sectors
    Abstract: Based on extensive interviews with informal importers and brokers in Cameroon, this paper explains why customs reform aimed at reducing fraud and corruption may be difficult to achieve. Informal traders and brokers (without licenses) follow various business models and practices, which are product-specific. Overall, what matters first are customs brokers' practices. Information asymmetries mark transactions between brokers and importers and are accompanied by misperceptions of the costs and risks of informal brokers working among informal importers. In a low-governance environment with widespread informal practices, blanket policies should be avoided in order to discourage activities of unprofessional and systematic bribe-taker brokers. It is also essential that customs officials disrupt information asymmetries and better disseminate information to informal importers on customs processes and official costs. Finally, customs should more strongly sanction some informal brokers in order to reduce collusion with some customs officers
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cordella, Tito Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World
    Abstract: Using a new, large data set on quarterly reserve requirements for the period 1970-2011, this paper provides new evidence on the use of reserve requirements as a countercyclical macroprudential tool in developing countries. The appeal of reserve requirements lies in the pro-cyclical behavior of the exchange rate over the business cycle in developing countries. This enormously complicates the use of interest rates as a countercyclical instrument (because of its effect on the exchange rate) and calls for a second instrument. The paper suggests that conflicts may arise between the microprudential and macroprudential policy stances
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jung, Haeil The Impact of Early Childhood Education on Early Achievement Gaps
    Abstract: This paper assesses whether the Indonesia Early Childhood Education and Development project had an impact on early achievement gaps as measured by an array of child development outcomes and enrollment. The analysis is based on longitudinal data collected in 2009 and 2010 on approximately 3,000 four-year-old children residing in 310 villages located in nine districts across Indonesia. The study begins by documenting the intent-to-treat impact of the project. It then compares the achievement gaps between richer and poorer children living in project villages with those of richer and poorer children living in non-project villages. There is clear evidence that in project villages, the achievement gap between richer and poorer children decreased on many dimensions. By contrast, in non-project villages, this gap either increased or stayed constant. Given Indonesia's interest in increasing access to early childhood services for all children, and the need to ensure more efficient spending on education, the paper discusses how three existing policies and programs could be leveraged to ensure that Indonesia's vision for holistic, integrated early childhood services becomes a reality. The lessons from Indonesia's experience apply more broadly to countries seeking to reduce early achievement gaps and expand access to pre-primary education
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chan, Rosanna Financial Constraints, Working Capital and the Dynamic Behavior of the Firm
    Abstract: Financial constraints are widespread in developing countries, where even short-term credit is limited. Finance held by firms as working capital is a substantial proportion of sales revenue, yet the role of working capital is largely neglected by existing models of financial constraints. This paper presents a dynamic model of the firm that incorporates working capital by introducing a delay between factor payments and the receipt of revenue. In contrast with previous models, the working capital model predicts that firms under binding constraints will substitute between labor and capital in response to demand shocks, causing investment to be countercyclical. For firms near the margin of being constrained, constraints bind when positive production opportunities arise. Output growth is therefore constrained in response to positive shocks but not to negative shocks. Simulations suggest that models without working capital may understate the predicted effects of financial constraints on production efficiency, firm profit and growth over time. The predictions are tested with the Bangladesh Panel Survey data for manufacturing firms. Consistent with the theory, there is evidence that constraints bind when output price increases, that investment by constrained firms is countercyclical, and that output response to positive shocks is dampened for firms that are sometimes constrained. The results also are important for policy. In order to maximize growth, efforts to relieve credit constraints should be focused on periods when demand shocks are high
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Saleman, Yannick The Implementation of Industrial Parks
    Abstract: Industrial parks are as popular as they are controversial, in India and globally. At their best they align infrastructure provision and agglomeration economies to jolt industrial growth. More often, they generate negative spill-overs, provide handouts, sit empty, or simply do not get built. This paper disaggregates how parks are built and how they fail. It contextualizes parks in India, followed by a thick case study of an innovative scheme that appears to buck the trend. This performance is then explained by the way in which the scheme's design and action fit India's political economy. The paper concludes by considering how the analysis and the lessons learned might inform the design and implementation of industrial park programs and other public interventions, in India and elsewhere
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pratt, Richard Governance of Securities Regulators
    Abstract: This paper reviews the published work on the governance of regulatory authorities in order to identify the basic governance standards that apply and some of the factors that affect the implementation of good governance. There are four pillars of good regulatory governance: independence, accountability, transparency, and integrity. The regulator should be operationally independent from commercial and political influences in the exercise of its functions and powers. Accountability is the means whereby a regulatory authority is held responsible for the actions it takes. Transparency refers to the publication of relevant information designed to demonstrate consistency and openness. The fourth governance pillar, integrity, refers to the internal processes that the authority adopts to ensure there is discipline and consistency in its operations and to limit the risks of regulatory staff acting in their own self-interest as opposed to that of the authority and the market. These four elements are mutually reinforcing, in that accountability is necessary to provide legitimacy to independence, transparency is necessary to demonstrate that independence does not lead to abuse or improper behavior, and integrity is necessary to provide the discipline to control the exercise of independent powers. Available evidence suggests that independence and accountability are far from being universally applied in practice. The paper concludes with some practical suggestions that experience indicates are likely to enhance the effectiveness of the governance of securities regulators. Good governance of the securities regulator is necessary for effective regulation. It is also of importance in setting an example to encourage good corporate governance in the private sector
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dabalen, Andrew The Effects of the Intensity, Timing, and Persistence of Personal History of Mobility on Support for Redistribution
    Abstract: This paper examines the association between the intensity, timing, and persistence of personal history of mobility on individual support for redistribution. Using both rounds of the Life in Transition Survey, the paper builds measures of downward mobility for about 57,000 individuals from 27 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The analysis finds that more intensive, recent, and persistent downward mobility increases support for redistribution more. A number of extensions and checks are done by, among others, taking into account systematic bias in perceived mobility experience, considering an alternative definition of redistributive preferences, and exploring the severity of omitted variable bias problems. Overall, the results are robust
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McCarthy, Nancy The Nexus between Gender, Collective Action for Public Goods, and Agriculture
    Abstract: Across the developing world, public goods exert significant impacts on the local rural economy in general and agricultural productivity and welfare outcomes in particular. Economic and social-cultural heterogeneity have, however, long been documented as detrimental to collective capacity to provide public goods. In particular, women are often under-represented in local leadership and decision-making processes, as are young adults and minority ethnic groups. While democratic principles dictate that broad civic engagement by women and other groups could improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governance and increase public goods provision, the empirical evidence on these hypotheses is scant. This paper develops a theoretical model highlighting the complexity of constructing a "fair" schedule of individual contributions, given heterogeneity in costs and benefits that accrue to people depending, for instance, on their gender, age, ethnicity, and education. The model demonstrates that representative leadership and broad participation in community organizations can mitigate the negative impacts of heterogeneity on collective capacity to provide public goods. Nationally-representative household survey data from Malawi, combined with geospatial and administrative information, are used to test this hypothesis and estimate the relationship between collective capacity for public goods provision and community median estimates of maize yields and household consumption expenditures per capita. The analysis shows that similarities between the leadership and the general population, in terms of gender and age, and active participation by women and young adults in community groups alleviate the negative effects of heterogeneity and increase collective capacity, which in turn improves agricultural productivity and welfare
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Vogt-Schilb, Adrien Long-Term Mitigation Strategies and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
    Abstract: Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. This paper investigates the ability of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision, reanalysing a MAC curve developed by the World Bank on Brazil. Misinterpreting MAC curves and focusing on short-term targets (e.g., for 2020) would lead to under-invest in expensive, long-to-implement and large-potential options, such as clean transportation infrastructure. Meeting short-term targets with marginal energy-efficiency improvements would lead to carbon-intensive lock-ins that make longer-term targets (e.g., for 2030 and beyond) impossible or too expensive to reach. Improvements to existing MAC curves are proposed, based on (1) enhanced data collection and reporting; (2) a simple optimization tool that accounts for constraints on implementation speeds; and (3) new graphical representations of MAC curves. Designing climate mitigation policies can be done through a pragmatic combination of two approaches. The synergy approach is based on MAC curves to identify the cheapest mitigation options and maximize co-benefits. The urgency approach considers the long-term objective (e.g., halving emissions by 2050) and works backward to identify actions that need to be implemented early, such as public support to clean infrastructure and zero-carbon technologies
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Randle, Tony Pension Risk and Risk-Based Supervision in Defined Contribution Pension Funds
    Abstract: Defined contribution pension systems have faced criticism in the wake of the financial and economic crisis for not delivering adequate and sustainable pension incomes at retirement. Much of the problem has centered around the misalignment of pension fund management companies and the interests of pension fund members, with the focus on short-term volatility rather than delivering adequate pension income over the long term. Although pension fund supervisors in emerging economies have attempted to correct for these market failures, they have not focused sufficiently on the ultimate long-term pension income objective. The paper suggests that in order to have a meaningful impact on future pensions, the supervision of defined contribution pension systems needs to take a more proactive role in minimizing pension risk. This objective would require ensuring that investment risks are aligned with the probability of achieving a target pension at retirement age. The paper also suggests that a proper institutional design of the pension fund industry and intensive use of market surveillance are efficient tools for dealing with most of the operational risks of funded pension fund schemes in emerging economies
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Coppola, Andrea Estimating the Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital for Public Investment Projects
    Abstract: This paper offers an assessment of the methodologies employed to estimate the economic opportunity cost of capital for public sector projects, relying on the Mexican case for an applied empirical exercise. The traditional weighted cost of capital (top-down) approach used in the estimation of Mexico's economic opportunity cost of capital is reviewed and compared to the supply price (bottom-up) approach. With respect to previous studies using the top-down approach, this paper explores the contribution of domestic savings and expands the analysis to include a more detailed examination of the available macroeconomic, labor, financial, and tax information. The re-estimated top-down economic opportunity cost of capital for Mexico comes to 10.4 percent. To confirm these results and provide additional insights regarding the alternative bottom-up approach, the economic opportunity cost of capital is estimated using the supply price plus externalities method. For the case of Mexico, this paper recommends using a combination of estimation models (both the top-down and bottom-up approaches) to check the consistency of results and re-estimating the economic opportunity cost of capital every five years to accommodate for macroeconomic and fiscal changes. More broadly, the paper acknowledges the complexities involved in the estimation of the economic opportunity cost of capital for public investment projects and underlines the relevance of additional considerations, such as changes in global economic trends and country risk ratings, tax distortions, financial sector improvements, the impact of reforms, and data availability
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Betcherman, Gordon Labor Market Regulations
    Abstract: Labor market regulation is a high-profile, and often contentious, area of public policy. Although these regulations have been studied most extensively in developed countries, there is a growing body of literature on their effects in developing countries. This paper reviews that literature and focuses on the impacts of two important types of labor market regulation, minimum wages and employment protection legislation (EPL), on employment, earnings, and productivity. Strong and opposing views exist regarding the costs and benefits of these regulations, but the results of this review suggest that their impacts are generally smaller than the heat of the debates would suggest. Efficiency effects are found sometimes, but not always, and the effects can be in either direction and are usually modest. The distributional impacts of both minimum wage and employment protection legislation are clearer, with two effects predominating: an equalizing effect among covered workers, but with groups such as youth, women, and the less skilled disproportionately outside the coverage and its benefits. Although the overall conclusion is one of modest effects in most cases, the policy implication is not that these regulations do not matter. On the one hand, both minimum wages and EPL can affect distributional objectives. On the other hand, these regulations can generate undesirable economic or social impacts if they are established or operate in ways that exacerbate the labor market imperfections that they were designed to address
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  • 36
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khandker, Shahidur R Dynamic Effects of Microcredit in Bangladesh
    Abstract: This paper uses long panel survey data spanning over 20 years to examine the dynamics of microcredit programs in Bangladesh. With the phenomenal growth of microfinance institutions representing 30 million members with over
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Maloney, William F Convergence to the Managerial Frontier
    Abstract: Using detailed survey data on management practices, this paper uses recent advances in unconditional quantile analysis to study the changes in the within country distribution of management quality associated with country convergence to the managerial frontier. It then decomposes the contribution of potential explanatory factors to the distributional changes. The United States emerges as the frontier country, not because of better management on average, but because its best firms are far better than those of its close competitors. Part of the process of convergence to the frontier across the development process represents a trimming of the left tail, much is movement of the central mass and, for rich countries, it is actually the best firms that lag the frontier benchmark. Among potential explanatory variables that may drive convergence, ownership and human capital appear critical, the former especially for poorer countries and that latter for richer countries suggesting that the mechanics of convergence change across the process. These variables lose their explanatory power as firm and average country management quality rises. Hence, once in the advanced country range, the factors that improve management quality are less easy to document and hence influence
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Baird, Sarah Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover Effects
    Keywords: Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Experiment ; Malawi
    Abstract: This paper formalizes the design of experiments intended specifically to study spillover effects. By first randomizing the intensity of treatment within clusters and then randomly assigning individual treatment conditional on this cluster-level intensity, a novel set of treatment effects can be identified. The paper develops a formal framework for consistent estimation of these effects, provides explicit expressions for power calculations, and shows that the power to detect average treatment effects declines precisely with the quantity that identifies the novel treatment effects. A demonstration of the technique is provided using a cash transfer program in Malawi
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beegle, Kathleen HIV Testing, Behavior Change, and the Transition to Adulthood in Malawi
    Abstract: For young adults living in countries with AIDS epidemics, getting an HIV test may influence near-term decisions, such as when to leave school, when to marry, and when to have a first child. These behaviors, which define the transition from adolescence to adulthood, have long-term implications on well-being and directly affect a person's risk of contracting HIV. Using an experimental design embedded in a panel survey from Malawi, this study assesses the impact of voluntary counseling and testing of young adults for HIV on these decisions. The results show negligible intent-to-treat effect of HIV testing on behaviors. There is some suggestive evidence on differential response by wealth and by prior beliefs about one's status
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Divakaran, Shanthi Private Equity and Venture Capital in SMEs in Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper discusses the constraints for private equity financing of small and medium enterprises in developing economies. In addition to capital, private equity investors bring knowledge and expertise to the companies in which they invest. Through active participation on the board of directors or in partnership with management, private equity investors equip companies with critical improvements in governance, financial accounting, access to markets, technology, and other drivers of business success. Although private equity investors could help to create, deepen, and expand growth of small and medium enterprises in developing economies, the vast majority of private equity in such markets targets larger or more established enterprises. Technical assistance, when partnered with private equity, can unlock more investor commitments and considerably enhance the ability of small and medium enterprises in emerging markets to raise private equity capital. Technical assistance provides funding that allows private equity funds to extend their reach to smaller companies. Technical assistance can mitigate some level of risk and increase the probability of successful investments by funding targeted operational improvements of investee companies. Dedicated technical assistance facilities financed by third parties, such as development finance institutions, governments, or other parties, have emerged to fill this critical need. The paper discusses the provision of investment capital twinned with technical assistance, which is now more accepted by limited partners and general partners or fund managers and is becoming more of a market model for private equity finance focused on small and medium enterprises
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Burns, Andrew Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries
    Abstract: As the recovery in high-income countries firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a normalization of policy and activity in high-income countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt adjustments remains significant, especially if increased market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple of quarters, could lead to a sharp reduction in capital inflows to developing countries by between 50 and 80 percent for several months. Evidence from past banking crises suggests that countries having seen a substantial expansion of domestic credit over the past five years, deteriorating current account balances, high levels of foreign and short-term debt, and over-valued exchange rates could be more at risk in current circumstances. Countries with adequate policy buffers and investor confidence may be able to rely on market mechanisms and countercyclical macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with a retrenchment of foreign capital. In other cases, where the scope for maneuver is more limited, countries may be forced to tighten fiscal and monetary policy to reduce financing needs and attract additional inflows
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chan, Rosanna Why Liquidity Matters to the Export Decision of the Firm
    Abstract: Under financial constraints, exporting may have less to do with productivity and more to do with financial resources. The established relationship between exporting and productivity would differ when examined through the lens of the working capital needs of the firm. The hypothesis that working capital matters in the firm's exporting decision is explored in two ways: first, by articulating a dynamic working capital model of the firm that incorporates the firm's export decision. Secondly, by testing the hypothesis empirically using a unique firm level dataset from Bangladesh, where issues of financial constraints are particularly acute. The model shows that productivity determines export status of the firm as long as it is not under financial constraints. However, under financial constraints, export status is less dependent on productivity and more dependent on the availability of working capital. Empirical results support the model's prediction. The relationship between exporting time and the need for greater liquidity is also borne out empirically as shown by a positive and significant correlation between the amount of working capital and the distance of export destination. An important policy implication from the analysis is that short term liquidity is critical in allowing productive firms to export and that access to finance may prevent the benefits of trade liberalization within a country to be fully realized
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Longmore, Rohan Toward Economic Diversification in Trinidad and Tobago
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the predominant diversification debate that has been ongoing in Trinidad and Tobago for more than three decades. The paper makes a determination of the key impediments to the country's attempts at diversification. Econometric techniques are applied on panel data to identify the most significant obstacles to economic diversification for a set of 183 countries. The results indicate that openness to foreign direct investment inflows is the most fundamental driver of diversification. The findings are then applied to the specific case of Trinidad and Tobago through a detailed analysis of the links in the trends followed by foreign direct investment and diversification between 1980 and 2011. Greater openness to foreign direct investment and improving the business climate appear to be key policies the twin-island republic could implement further in order to expand the range of activities of its economic structure
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Prennushi, G Women's Empowerment and Socio-Economic Outcomes
    Abstract: The paper explores whether one of the largest programs in the world for women's empowerment and rural livelihoods, the Indira Kranti Patham in Andhra Pradesh, India, has had an impact on the economic and social wellbeing of households that participate in the program. The analysis usespanel data for 4,250 households from two rounds of a survey conducted in 2004 and 2008 in five districts. Propensity score matching was used to construct control groups and outcomes are compared with differences-in-differences. There are two major impacts. First, the Indira Kranti Patham program increased participants' access to loans, which allowed them to accumulate some assets (livestock and durables for the poorest and nonfarm assets for the poor), invest in education, and increase total expenditures (for the poorest and poor). Women who participated in the program had more freedom to go places and were less afraid to disagree with their husbands; the women participated more in village meetings and their children were slightly more likely to attend school. Consistent with the emphasis of the program on the poor, the impacts were stronger across the board for the poorest and poor participants and were more pronounced for long-term Scheduled Tribe participants. No significant differences are found between participants and nonparticipants in some maternal and child health indicators. Second, program participants were significantly more likely to benefit from various targeted government programs, most important the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, but also midday meals in schools, hostels, and housing programs. This was an important way in which the program contributed to the improved wellbeing of program participants. The effects captured by the analysis accrue to program participants over and above those that may accrue to all households in program villages
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dollar, David Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare
    Abstract: Social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare. In a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years, most of the cross-country and over-time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes. In contrast, the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes, are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes, and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare
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  • 46
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gereffi, Gary Risks and Opportunities of Participation in Global Value Chains
    Abstract: Risk is inherent to the pursuit of opportunity. This paper surveys the recent literature and looks at the risks and opportunities firms and their workers face in the global value chains. First, it examines the risk-sharing mechanisms that firms provide from the national and global perspectives; second, it takes a closer look at the new opportunities and challenges for firms and individuals in the global arena; third, it discusses the role of economic upgrading and social upgrading; and finally it sheds light on how the government can help people manage risks and reap the benefits in the participation of global value chains
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time?
    Abstract: The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike
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  • 48
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Clemens, Michael A Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth?
    Abstract: Although measured remittances by migrant workers have soared in recent years, macroeconomic studies have difficulty detecting their effect on economic growth. This paper reviews existing explanations for this puzzle and proposes three new ones. First, it offers evidence that a large majority of the recent rise in measured remittances may be illusory-arising from changes in measurement, not changes in real financial flows. Second, it shows that even if these increases were correctly measured, cross-country regressions would have too little power to detect their effects on growth. Third, it points out that the greatest driver of rising remittances is rising migration, which has an opportunity cost to economic product at the origin. Net of that cost, there is little reason to expect large growth effects of remittances in the origin economy. Migration and remittances clearly have first-order effects on poverty at the origin, on the welfare of migrants and their families, and on global gross domestic product; but detecting their effects on growth of the origin economy is likely to remain elusive
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kelleher, Sinéad Technical Measures to Trade in Central America
    Abstract: Despite the widespread tariff reductions sparked by the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement, borders in the region remain thick, with many hurdles standing in the way of regional trade. Although anecdotal evidence suggests that nontariff measures raise trade costs and inhibit trade in the region, little is known about the magnitude of these economic effects. This paper uses a newly collected data set to quantify the incidence of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade in the region and benchmarks it with other parts of the world. The results indicate that the Central American region has the lowest prevalence of technical nontariff measures in the world. However, there is significant heterogeneity of trade-related regulations in Central America; for instance, 48 percent of Salvadoran imports are subject to at least one nontariff measure, compared with just 16 percent of Honduran imports. The paper estimates the impact of these technical measures on border prices and finds that the price impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures is equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 11.6 percent. This price-rising effect is further investigated by looking in detail at the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on the prices of beef, chicken meat, bread, and dairy products in Guatemala. The impact is estimated to be equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 68.4 percent, 51.4 percent, 22.0 percent, and 5.0 percent, respectively. The paper shows that efforts to streamline key sanitary and phytosanitary measures affecting these products by, for example, reducing the cost and time required to obtain sanitary registries, would likely reduce the Guatemalan urban extreme poverty rate from 5.07 percent to 4.91 percent
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khwaja, Munawer Sultan Revenue Potential, Tax Space, and Tax Gap
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the key determinants of the revenue generating potential in 61 countries. The paper uses a broad set of data and econometric methods to conduct analyses that are of relevance to revenue potential. Earlier studies have not distinguished between the revenue potential based on economic fundamentals of countries and that based on what the legal framework prescribes. This study uses a dual approach to revenue potential to examine the issue. Two sets of variables are used, one related to the intrinsic economic structure and strength of countries that affect revenue potential and the other related to tax policy variables. Accordingly the analysis finds two sets of revenue potentials: one can be termed “revenue potential (economic),” and the other “revenue potential (legal).” The difference between the revenue potential (legal) and the actual revenue collected is commonly understood as the “tax gap.” The difference between the revenue potential (economic) and the actual revenue collected can be termed the “tax space,” the amount of revenue that a country can afford to collect, given its economic strength, not based on what the parliament has mandated. The results show that legally mandated revenue potentials in countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are often higher than the revenue potential based on what the country's economic fundamentals can afford. The paper also makes use of a tax effort index and finds that although many countries are performing close to the revenue potential (economic), it is more difficult to match up to the revenue potential (legal). The relationship between the revenue potential and the shadow economy, value added tax productivity, and some other determinants are examined to test whether some countries are taxing beyond their means
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rijkers, Bob All in the Family
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between regulation and the business interests of President Ben Ali and his family, using firm-level data from Tunisia for 1994-2010. Data on investment regulations are merged with balance sheet and firm-level census data in which 220 firms owned by the Ben Ali family are identified. These connected firms outperform their competitors in terms of employment, output, market share, profits, and growth and sectors in which they are active are disproportionately subject to authorization requirements and restriction on foreign direct investment. Consistent with theories of capture, performance differences between connected firms and their peers are significantly larger in highly regulated sectors. In addition, the introduction of new foreign direct investment restrictions and authorization requirements in narrowly defined five-digit sectors is correlated with the presence of connected firms and with their startup, suggesting that regulation is endogenous to state capture. The evidence implies that Tunisia's industrial policy was used as a vehicle for rent creation for the president and his family
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  • 52
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Desmet, Klaus Analyzing Urban Systems
    Abstract: The trend toward ever greater urbanization continues unabated across the globe. According to the United Nations, by 2025 closes to 5 billion people will live in urban areas. Many cities, especially in the developing world, are set to explode in size. Over the next decade and a half, Lagos is expected to increase its population 50 percent, to nearly 16 million. Naturally, there is an active debate on whether restricting the growth of megacities is desirable and whether doing so can make residents of those cities and their countries better off. When analyzing whether megacities have become too large, policy makers often analyze a single city in depth. But no city is an island: improving urban infrastructure in one city might attract migrants, and a negative shock in one location can be mitigated because people can move to another. Considering the general equilibrium effects of any such urban policy is thus key. That is, when deciding whether to make medium-size cities more attractive, policy makers need to understand how cities of all sizes will be affected. The second section briefly summarizes the theoretical framework and discusses which data are needed. The third section implements the methodology for the benchmark case of the United States. The fourth section does the same for China and Mexico and compares the findings. And the last section concludes. A technical online appendix guides the reader through a practical, step-by-step, discussion of how to do the analysis
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Keith, Michael The Great Migration
    Abstract: The great 21st-century migration into cities will present both a great challenge for humanity and a significant opportunity for global economic growth. This paper describes the diverse patterns that define this metropolitan migration. It then lays out a framework for understanding the costs and benefits of new arrivals through migration's externalities and the challenges and policy tradeoffs that confront city stakeholders. The paper concludes by suggesting ways municipalities, by optimizing flexibility, can make migration more productive and less destructive in shaping the ‘good city’ and the ‘smart city.’ There are few paths to global economic growth that do not run through cities, and even fewer that do not depend on growing the city in population size, scale, and economic exchange. Historically, cities have grown by concentrating the economic advantages of number and density, the social potential of innovation, and the cultural possibilities of newness. By bringing together the factors of production, land, labor, capital, and enterprise, in ever more recombinant forms, cities offer the possibility of securing new economic advantages and scaling them up
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 54
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woetzel, Jonathan Infrastructure
    Abstract: Adequate urban infrastructure can be expensive, but the costs of not delivering housing, transportation, water, sewage, public facilities, and other necessities are also high. Inadequate infrastructure slows and even reverses economic growth, driving unemployment, crime, and urban decay. It can fuel urban tensions by widening divisions among ethnic or income groups or between long-time residents and recent immigrants. And it can foster a general malaise that drains a city's vitality and spirit. One study in Africa showed that the return on investment for infrastructure was about 50 percent, based on contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), and that if investments were optimized, the return will be closer to 150 percent. This value is delivered through increased productivity and job creation, among other channels. Social benefits from improved public services and living standards are also substantial. In emerging markets, inadequate infrastructure can be a substantial barrier to growth. Adequate infrastructure reduces costs, supports economic activity, increases factor productivity in cities, and connects cities to domestic and international markets. With the staggering demand for infrastructure in emerging economies, officials will need to continue gathering as much funding as possible to meet their needs. This paper looks closer at the infrastructure needs of cities in emerging markets, based on the most recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) analysis. It offers practical suggestions on how to answer fundamental questions facing any government trying to get the greatest impact from limited infrastructure funds. And before concluding, it examines how cities worldwide have improved governance, institutions, processes, and capabilities to help close the infrastructure funding gap
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  • 55
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Evans, David K Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods
    Keywords: Entwicklungshilfe ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Privater Konsum ; Lateinamerika ; Afrika ; Asien
    Abstract: Cash transfers have been demonstrated to improve education and health outcomes and alleviate poverty in various contexts. However, policy makers and others often express concern that poor households will use transfers to buy alcohol, tobacco, or other "temptation goods." The income effect of transfers will increase expenditures if alcohol and tobacco are normal goods, but this may be offset by other effects, including the substitution effect, the effect of social messaging about the appropriate use of transfers, and the effect of shifting dynamics in intra-household bargaining. The net effect is ambiguous. This paper reviews 19 studies with quantitative evidence on the impact of cash transfers on temptation goods, as well as 11 studies that surveyed the number of respondents who reported they used transfers for temptation goods. Almost without exception, studies find either no significant impact or a significant negative impact of transfers on temptation goods. In the only (two, non-experimental) studies with positive significant impacts, the magnitude is small. This result is supported by data from Latin America, Africa, and Asia. A growing number of studies from a range of contexts therefore indicate that concerns about the use of cash transfers for alcohol and tobacco consumption are unfounded
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Damania, Richard Ecosystems - Burden or Bounty?
    Abstract: This paper presents a somewhat novel approach to explore the economic contribution of ecosystems. It develops linked models to capture connections between resource stocks and flows and the resulting microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. A bioeconomic model is developed that is imbedded into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Incorporating imperfect regulation, the bioeconomic model characterizes optimal policies, while the CGE model explores the economy-wide consequences of possible changes to the ecosystem. The model is parameterized and calibrated to the case of the Serengeti ecosystem which is perhaps the most intensively researched biome with a relative abundance of data. This ecosystem is also undergoing rapid change from a host of factors related to developments within and around the protected area system. The analysis identifies the contribution of the ecosystem to the economy and finds that changes in tourism and bushmeat hunting have surprisingly diffuse economy-wide impacts, that are especially large in the rural sector. To guard against overstatement, ecosystem impacts are under-stated relative to other effects. The results suggest that linkages to the natural resource sector (backward and forward multipliers) are important and neglecting these may lead to biased estimates
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sun, Xiaojie The Impact of a Pay-for-Performance Scheme on Prescription Quality in Rural China
    Abstract: In China, health care providers have traditionally been paid fee-for-service and overprescribing and high out-of-pocket spending are common. In this study, township health centers in two counties were assigned almost randomly to two groups: in one, fee-for-service was replaced by a global capitated budget; in the other, by a mix of global capitated budget and pay-for-performance. Performance captured inter alia "irrational" drug prescribing; 20 percent of the global capitated budget was withheld each quarter, points were deducted for failure to meet targets, and some of the withheld budget was returned in line with the points deducted. Outcomes included appropriate prescribing and prescription cost, data on which were obtained by digitizing prescriptions from a month just before the reform and from the same month a year later. Impacts were assessed via multivariate differences-in-differences with township health center fixed effects. To reduce bias from non-randomness in assignment, the sample was trimmed by coarsened exact matching. Pay-for-performance reduced inappropriate prescribing significantly and substantially in the county where the initial level was above the penalty threshold, but end-line rates were still appreciable; no effects were seen in the county where initial levels were around or below the threshold, or on out-of-pocket spending in either county
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Capuno, Joseph J Effects of Interventions to Raise Voluntary Enrollment in a Social Health Insurance Scheme
    Abstract: A cluster randomized controlled trial was undertaken, testing two sets of interventions to encourage enrollment in the Philippines' Individual Payer Program. Of 243 municipalities, 179 were randomly assigned as intervention sites and 64 as controls. In early 2011, 2,950 families were interviewed; unenrolled Individual Payer Program-eligible families in intervention sites were given an information kit and a 50 percent premium subsidy until the end of 2011. In February 2012, the "non-compliers" had their voucher extended, were re-sent the enrollment kit, and received Short Message Service (SMS) reminders. Half were told that in the upcoming end-line interview the enumerator could help complete the enrollment form, deliver it to the insurer, and have identification cards mailed. The control and intervention sites were balanced at baseline. In the control sites, 9.9 percent (32/323) of eligible individuals had enrolled by January 2012, compared with 14.9 percent (119/801) in intervention sites. In the sub-experiment, enrollment was 3.4 percent (10/290) among eligible non-compliers and who did not receive assistance but 39.7 percent (124/312) among those who did. A premium subsidy combined with information can increase voluntary enrollment in a social health insurance program, but less than an intervention that reduces the enrollment burden; even that leaves enrollment below 50 percent
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P What Do We Know about Preferential Trade Agreements and Temporary Trade Barriers?
    Abstract: Two of the most important trade policy developments to take place since the 1980s are the expansion of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers, such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. Despite the empirical importance of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and the common feature that each can independently have quite discriminatory elements, relatively little is known about the nature of any relationships between them. This paper surveys the literature on some of the political-economic issues that can arise at the intersection of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and uses four case studies to illustrate variation in how countries apply the World Trade Organization's global safeguards policy instrument. The four examples include recent policies applied by a variety of types of countries and under different agreements: large and small countries, high-income and emerging economies, and free trade areas and customs unions. The analysis reveals important measurement and identification challenges for research that seeks to find evidence of systematic relationships between the formation of preferential trade agreements, the political-economic implications of their implementation, and the use of subsequent temporary trade barriers
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Giné, Xavier Financial (Dis-)Information
    Abstract: An audit study was conducted in peri-urban Mexico to understand the quality of information and products offered to low-income potential customers. Trained auditors visited multiple financial institutions seeking credit and savings products. Consistent with Gabaix and Laibson (2006), staff voluntarily provides little information about avoidable fees, especially to auditors trained to reveal little knowledge about the market. In addition, clients are almost never offered the cheapest product, most likely because staff is incentivized to offer more expensive products that are thus more profitable to the institution. This suggests that disclosure and transparency policies may be ineffective if they undermine the commercial interest of financial institutions
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ali, Daniel Ayalew The Price of Empowerment
    Keywords: Bodenreform ; Bodenrecht ; Geschlecht ; Feldforschung ; Tansania
    Abstract: This paper reports on a randomized field experiment that uses price incentives to address economic and gender inequality in land tenure formalization. During the 1990s and 2000s, nearly two dozen African countries proposed de jure land reforms extending access to formal, freehold land tenure to millions of poor households. Many of these reforms stalled. Titled land remains the de facto preserve of wealthy households and, within households, men. Beginning in 2010, the study tested whether price instruments alone can generate greater inclusion by offering formal titles to residents of a low-income, unplanned settlement in Dar es Salaam at a range of subsidized prices, as well as additional price incentives to include women as owners or co-owners of household land. Estimated price elasticities of demand confirm that prices-rather than other implementation failures or features of the titling regime-are a key obstacle to broader inclusion in the land registry, and that some degree of pro-poor price discrimination is justified even from a narrow budgetary perspective. In terms of gender inequality, the study finds that even small price incentives for female co-titling achieve almost complete gender parity in land ownership with no reduction in demand
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wagstaff, Adam Encouraging Health Insurance for the Informal Sector
    Abstract: Subsidized voluntary enrollment in government-run health insurance schemes is often proposed as a way of increasing coverage among informal sector workers and their families. This paper reports the results of a cluster randomized control trial in which 3,000 households in 20 communes in Vietnam were randomly assigned at baseline to a control group or one of three treatments: an information leaflet about Vietnam's government-run scheme and the benefits of health insurance; a voucher entitling eligible household members to 25 percent off their annual premium; and both. The four groups were balanced at baseline. In the control group, 6.3 percent (82/1296) of individuals were enrolled in the endline, compared with 6.3 percent (79/1257), 7.2 percent (96/1327), and 7.0 percent (87/1245) in the information, subsidy, and combined intervention groups; the adjusted odds ratios were 0.94, 1.12, and 1.15, respectively. Only among those reporting poor health were any significant intervention effects found, and only for the combined intervention: an enrollment rate of 16.3 percent (33/202) compared with 8.3 percent (18/218) in the control group, and an adjusted odds ratio of 2.50. The results suggest limited opportunities to raise voluntary health insurance enrollment through information campaigns and subsidies, and that these interventions exacerbate adverse selection
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  • 63
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hassine, Nadia Belhaj Economic Inequality in the Arab Region
    Abstract: The paper uses harmonized household survey micro-data to assess the levels and determinants of economic inequality in 12 Arab countries. It focuses on the sources of rural-urban, as well as metropolitan-nonmetropolitan, inequalities and applies the unconditional quantile regression decomposition technique to analyze the welfare gaps across the entire distribution. The analysis finds moderate inequality levels, with the Gini coefficient for the distribution of household real per capita total expenditures ranging between 30.7 in Libya and 45 in Mauritania. Differences in households' endowments, such as demographic composition, human capital, and community characteristics, appear as the main sources of the urban-rural welfare gap. There is inequality between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions in many countries, mainly because of differences in returns to households' characteristics and particularly returns to human capital
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (87 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma
    Abstract: Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli Deposit Insurance Database
    Keywords: Finanzdienstleistung ; Einlagensicherung ; Finanzkrise ; Welt
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. The authors extend their earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks' assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. They also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks' balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dercon, Stefan Is Green Growth Good for the Poor?
    Abstract: The developing world is experiencing substantial environmental change, and climate change is likely to accelerate these processes in the coming decades. Due to their initial poverty and their relatively high dependence on environmental capital for their livelihoods, the poor are likely to suffer most due to their low resources for mitigation and investment in adaptation. Economic growth is essential for any large-scale poverty reduction. Green growth, a growth process that is sensitive to environmental and climate change concerns, can be particularly helpful in this respect. We focus on the possible trade-offs between the greening of growth and poverty reduction, and we highlight the sectoral and spatial processes behind effective poverty reduction. High labor intensity, declining shares of agriculture in GDP and employment, migration, and urbanization are essential features of poverty-reducing growth. We contrast some common and stylized green-sensitive growth ideas related to agriculture, trade, technology, infrastructure, and urban development with the requirements of poverty-sensitive growth. We find that these ideas may cause a slowdown in the effectiveness of growth to reduce poverty. The main lesson is that trade-offs are bound to exist; they increase the social costs of green growth and should be explicitly addressed. If they are not addressed, green growth may not be good for the poor, and the poor should not be asked to pay the price for sustaining growth while greening the planet
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woolcock, Michael Culture, Politics, and Development
    Abstract: Whether in the domains of scholarship or practice, important advances have been made in recent years in our understanding of how culture, politics, and development interact. Today's leading theorists of culture and development represent a fourth distinctive perspective vis-à-vis their predecessors, one that seeks to provide an empirically grounded, mechanisms-based account of how symbols, frames, identities, and narratives are deployed as part of a broader repertoire of cultural "tools" connecting structure and agency. A central virtue of this approach is less the broad policy prescriptions to which it gives rise-indeed, to offer such prescriptions would be something of a contradiction in terms-than the emphasis it places on making intensive and extensive commitments to engaging with the idiosyncrasies of local contexts. Deep knowledge of contextual realities can contribute constructively to development policy by enabling careful intra-country comparisons to be made of the conditions under which variable responses to otherwise similar problems emerge. Such knowledge is also important for discerning the generalizability (or "external validity") of claims regarding the efficacy of development interventions, especially those overtly engaging with social, legal, and political issues
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 Seiten)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Avner, Paolo Carbon Price Efficiency
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nix, Emily Bridging the Gap
    Abstract: This paper explores the determinants of the gender gap in income earnings in five Sub-Saharan countries: the Republic of Congo, Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. It shows that first, self-employment tends to provide marginally lower average income (with the exception of Ghana and men in Rwanda) and much higher variability in income compared with wage work. Women on average earn less than men when they are self-employed and in wage employment, but also have less volatile earnings. The analysis uses quantile decomposition methods and finds that the differences in observable choices and endowments explain the gender gap in earnings for the self-employed who earn the least while the gap for the most successful male and female entrepreneurs is largely driven by differences in returns to observable covariates in the majority of the countries. These results suggest a glass ceiling effect, wherein a large portion of the income gaps between high-earning men and women cannot be explained by observable characteristics. The paper concludes by looking at the variables that account for a larger portion of the gender gap explained by observable characteristics and finds that hours of work and industry explain a higher fraction compared with standard human capital and demographic factors such as age and education
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Golub, Alexander Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps
    Abstract: This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dobronogov, Anton How Should Donors Respond to Resource Windfalls in Poor Countries?
    Abstract: Natural resources are being discovered in more countries, both rich and poor. Many of the new and aspiring resource exporters are low-income countries that are still receiving substantial levels of foreign aid. Resource discoveries open up enormous opportunities, but also expose producing countries to huge trade and fiscal shocks from volatile commodity markets if their exports are highly concentrated. A large literature on the "resource curse" shows that these are damaging unless countries manage to cushion the effects through countercyclical policy. It also shows that the countries least likely to do so successfully are those with weaker institutions, and these are most likely to remain as clients of the aid system. This paper considers the question of how donors should respond to their clients' potential windfalls. It discusses several ways in which the focus and nature of foreign aid programs will need to change, including the level of financial assistance. The paper develops some ideas on how a donor like the International Development Association might structure its program of financial transfers to mitigate volatility. The paper outlines ways in which the International Development Association could use hedging instruments to vary disbursements while still working within a framework of country allocations that are not contingent on oil prices. Simulations suggest that the International Development Association could be structured to provide a larger degree of insurance if it is calibrated to hedge against large declines in resource prices. These suggestions are intended to complement other mechanisms, including self-insurance using Sovereign Wealth Funds (where possible) and the facilities of the International Monetary Fund
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ananthpur, Kripa The Anatomy of Failure
    Abstract: Programs that induce citizen participation to improve the quality of government at the local level are the subjects of large amounts of funding and intense debate. This paper combines a randomized control trial of a citizenship training and facilitation program in rural India, with an in-depth, four-year ethnography of the intervention to understand the underlying mechanisms of change. The quantitative data show no impact from the intervention. Household and village survey data from 100 treatment and 100 control villages show considerable improvement across a wide variety of governance and participation indicators over time, but the differences in the changes between treatment and control villages are not statistically significant. The detailed qualitative data from a 10 percent subsample allow us to unpack the reasons why the intervention “failed,” highlighting the role of variations in the quality of facilitation, lack of top-down support, and difficulties with confronting the stubborn challenge of persistent inequality. However, the qualitative investigation also uncovered subtle treatment effects that are difficult to observe in structured surveys. The paper thus demonstrates that a concerted effort to use “thick description” to uncover the process of change using careful and detailed qualitative work can add value to standard impact evaluations
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Tang, Heiwai The Domestic Segment of Global Supply Chains in China under State Capitalism
    Abstract: This paper proposes methods to incorporate firm heterogeneity in the standard input-output table-based approach to portray the domestic segment of global value chains in a country. The analysis uses Chinese firm census data for the manufacturing and service sectors, along with constrained optimization techniques. The conventional input-output table is split into sub-accounts, which are used to estimate direct and indirect domestic value added in exports of different types of firms. The analysis finds that in China, state-owned enterprises and small and medium domestic private enterprises have much higher shares of indirect exports and ratios of value-added exports to gross exports compared with foreign-invested and large domestic private firms. Based on input-output tables for 2007 and 2010, the paper finds increasing value-added export ratios for all firm types, particularly for state-owned enterprises. It also finds that state-owned enterprises are consistently more upstream while small and medium domestic private enterprises are consistently more downstream within industries. These findings suggest that state-owned enterprises still play an important role in shaping China's exports
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Elbers, Chris Estimation of Normal Mixtures in a Nested Error Model with an Application to Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Inequality
    Abstract: This paper proposes a method for estimating distribution functions that are associated with the nested errors in linear mixed models. The estimator incorporates Empirical Bayes prediction while making minimal assumptions about the shape of the error distributions. The application presented in this paper is the small area estimation of poverty and inequality, although this denotes by no means the only application. Monte-Carlo simulations show that estimates of poverty and inequality can be severely biased when the non-normality of the errors is ignored. The bias can be as high as 2 to 3 percent on a poverty rate of 20 to 30 percent. Most of this bias is resolved when using the proposed estimator. The approach is applicable to both survey-to-census and survey-to-survey prediction
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Battaile, Bill Services, Inequality, and the Dutch Disease
    Abstract: This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences. Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ling, Cristina Evidence of Development Impact from Institutional Change
    Abstract: Despite the growing body of literature examining the effectiveness of transparency and accountability initiatives, there remains limited substantiation for whether and how open budgeting contributes to reductions in poverty and improvements in the lives of the poor. This paper reviews available evidence and conclude that institutional changes can contribute to higher-level outcomes in certain contexts. The approach first draws from existing studies of transparency and accountability initiatives and then follows their references to broaden the evidence base. The findings highlight the importance of measuring budget transparency, accountability, and participation and tracing their outcomes along an incremental, nonlinear results chain. Logical links or ongoing loops in this sequence include the interplay or interdependency among these three dimensions; the subsequent achievement of key, often mutually reinforcing, intermediate development outcomes; and ultimately, improved program or service delivery as the key lever for influencing development impact. Rather than establishing standard indicators, the process begins to identify which aspects of the institutional change are valid for measurement and what contextual factors to consider. Overall, this review serves as a starting point and underscores the need for further investigation to establish effective measurement practices of institutional change and build an evidence base for understanding the relative robustness of institutional change paths and the context in which they are likely to matter
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van Wijnbergen, Sweder Learning Dynamics and Support for Economic Reforms
    Abstract: Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: many reforms that began successfully lost public support. This paper shows that learning dynamics can rationalize this paradox because the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement. This concept challenges the conventional wisdom that one should begin by revealing reform winners. It may also lead to situations in which reforms that enjoy both ex ante and ex post majority support will still not come to completion. The framework can be used to explain why gradual reforms worked well in China (where successes in Special Economic Zones facilitated further reform), whereas this was much less the case for Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko The Return of "Patrimonial Capitalism
    Abstract: The paper provides a detailed review of Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st century." It focuses on the new contributions of the book, and in particular on its unified treatment of economic growth, functional income distribution, and concentration of personal income. It concludes that Piketty's reinvigoration of classical and empircally-drven approach is likely to have a profound impact on economics
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Du Caju, Philip Why Firms Avoid Cutting Wages
    Abstract: Firms very rarely cut nominal wages, even in the face of considerable negative economic shocks. This paper uses a unique survey of fourteen European countries to ask firms directly about the incidence of wage cuts and to assess the relevance of a range of potential reasons for why the firms avoid cutting wages. The paper examines how firm characteristics and collective bargaining institutions affect the relevance of each of the common explanations put forward for the infrequency of wage cuts. Concerns about the retention of productive staff and a lowering of morale and effort were reported as key reasons for downward wage rigidity across all countries and firm types. Restrictions created by collective bargaining were found to be an important consideration for firms in Western European (EU-15) countries but were one of the lowest ranked obstacles in the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aker, Jenny C Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets
    Keywords: Telefonnetz ; Agrarmarkt ; Effizienzmarkthypothese ; Agrarpreis ; Westafrika
    Abstract: Mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities, but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets. Building on the work of Aker (2010), this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in Niger. The results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea, a semi-perishable commodity. These effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year. The introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum, two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers. There are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on traders' gross margins or producer price levels, but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra-annual price variation for cowpea. These results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calì, Massimiliano Integrating Border Regions
    Abstract: Deeper regional integration can be beneficial especially for regions along international borders. It can open up new markets on opposite sides of borders and give consumers wider access to cheaper goods. This paper uses data from five contiguous districts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh in the northeast of the subcontinent to measure the degrees of trade complementarity between districts. The paper illustrates that the regions are underexploiting the potential of intraregional commerce. Price wedges of up to 90 percent in some important consumption products along with measures of complementarity between households' production and consumption suggest the potential for relatively large gains from deeper trade integration. Furthermore, an examination of a specific supply chain of tea highlights factors that help industries scale up, aided by institutions such as an organized auction and decent physical and legal infrastructure. However, districts alike in geography but located across international boundaries face different development prospects, suggesting that gains from reduced "thickness of borders" would not accrue automatically. Much rests on developing intrinsic industry competitiveness at home, including the reform of regulatory and business practices and infrastructural bottlenecks that prevent agglomeration of local economies
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aga, Gemechu Ayana International Remittances and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: This paper uses World Bank survey data, including about 10,000 households in five countries-Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda-to investigate the link between international remittances and households' financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper finds that receiving international remittances increases the probability that the household opens a bank account in all the five countries. This result is robust to controlling for the potential endogeneity of remittances, using as instruments indicators of the migrants' economic conditions in the destination countries
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Riera-Crichton, Daniel Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions
    Abstract: Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up
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  • 84
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hirano, Yumeka Aid is Good for the Poor
    Abstract: Aid is good for the poor. This paper uses detailed aid data spanning 60 developing countries over the past two decades to show that social aid significantly and directly benefits the poorest in society, while economic aid increases the income of the poor through growth. This new and unequivocal finding distinguishes the current study from past studies that only utilized aggregate aid data and returned ambiguous results. The paper also confirms that none of the elements of globalization (trade, foreign direct investment, remittances), policies (government expenditure, inflation management), institutional quality, nor other plausibly pro-poor factors have systematic effects on the poor or any other income group, beyond their effects on average incomes. The paper finds that trade and foreign direct investment tend to benefit the richest segments of society more than other income groups. Therefore, the presented evidence suggests that aid can play a crucial role in enabling the poor to benefit more from globalization. These discoveries underscore the need to assist developing countries to find the mix of economic and social aid that jointly promotes the participation of the poor in the development process under globalization. In this manner, aid can make greater strides in spurring development
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cruz, Marcio Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
    Abstract: Do export promotion agencies impact the probability of non-exporting firms to export? In the last decade many countries have introduced export promotion agencies to support their firms to deal with asymmetric information problems and make feasible additional gains from trade. Some recent studies have found that the support of these agencies has been effective with respect to the intensive and extensive margins of trade. Nevertheless, because of the lack of information on non-exporting firms, few of them analyze their impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. This paper evaluates the impact of the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (Apex-Brasil) on firms' export status using a unique firm-level dataset that covers the full manufacturing sector in Brazil. To identify the impact of Apex's assistance on firms' export propensity, the paper relies on a procedure of matching difference-in-difference estimators. The empirical results show evidence of the program's positive impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. The effect is heterogeneous according to firms' size categories and sectors. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the program has spillover effects. Although the evidence of positive effect is robust, the low propensity to export for both the treated and the control groups reinforces the importance of other firms' determinants (for example, productivity), which is widely emphasized by the trade literature
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  • 86
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
    Abstract: The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India?
    Abstract: The differences in financial development across Indian states, while seeming substantial, have a minor effect on firm lifecycle and growth. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, and for firms born before and after the major reforms. There is no evidence that firms in financially dependent industries have different lifecycle profiles or grow faster in financially developed states than underdeveloped states. Overall, firms in the formal manufacturing sector grow as they age whereas in the informal sector, firms have a declining lifecycle, but in both cases little evidence is found that financial institutions matter for firm lifecycle. The findings of this paper suggest that size and depth differences in financial development across Indian states are likely dwarfed by overall inefficiencies that characterize state-dominated financial systems, with important implications for the reforms of the Indian financial system going forward
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Short- and Long-Run Impacts of Food Price Changes on Poverty
    Abstract: This study uses household models based on detailed expenditure and agricultural production data from 31 developing countries to assess the impacts of changes in global food prices on poverty in individual countries and for the world as a whole. The analysis finds that food price increases unrelated to productivity changes in developing countries raise poverty in the short run in all but a few countries with broadly-distributed agricultural resources. This result is primarily because the poor spend large shares of their incomes on food and many poor farmers are net buyers of food. In the longer run, two other important factors come into play: poor workers are likely to benefit from increases in wage rates for unskilled workers from higher food prices, and poor farmers are likely to benefit from higher agricultural profits as they raise their output. As a result, higher food prices appear to lower global poverty in the long run
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (87 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sheahan, Megan Understanding the Agricultural Input Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: Conventional wisdom holds that Sub-Saharan African farmers use few modern inputs despite the fact that most growth-inducing and poverty-reducing agricultural growth in the region is expected to come largely from expanded use of inputs that embody improved technologies, particularly improved seed, fertilizers and other agro-chemicals, machinery, and irrigation. Yet following several years of high food prices, concerted policy efforts to intensify fertilizer and hybrid seed use, and increased public and private investment in agriculture, how low is modern input use in Africa really? This paper revisits Africa's agricultural input landscape, exploiting the unique, recently collected, nationally representative, agriculturally intensive, and cross-country comparable Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture covering six countries in the region (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda). The study uses data from more than 22,000 households and 62,000 plots to investigate a range of commonly held conceptions about modern input use in Africa, distilling the most striking and important findings into 10 key takeaway descriptive results
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kostka, Genia Barriers to the Implementation of Environmental Policies at the Local Level in China
    Abstract: China's national leaders have recently made a priority of changing lanes from a pollution-intensive, growth-at-any-cost model to a resource-efficient and sustainable one. The immense challenges of rapid urbanization are one aspect of the problem. Central-local government relations are another source of challenges, since the central government's green agenda does not always find willing followers at lower levels. This paper identifies barriers to a more comprehensive implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China's urban areas and suggests ways to reduce or remove them. The research focuses particularly on the reasons for the gap between national plans and policy outcomes. Although environmental goals and policies at the national level are quite ambitious and comprehensive, insufficient and inconsistent local level implementation can hold back significant improvements in urban environmental quality. By analyzing local institutional and behavioral obstacles and by highlighting best-practice examples from China and elsewhere, the paper outlines options that can be used at the national and local levels to close the local "environmental implementation gap." The findings emphasize the need to create additional incentives and increase local implementation capacities
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sabarwal, Shwetlena The Permanent Input Hypothesis
    Abstract: A textbook provision program in Sierra Leone demonstrates how volatility in the flow of government-provided learning inputs to schools can induce storage of these inputs by school administrators to smooth future consumption. This process in turn leads to low current utilization of inputs for student learning. A randomized trial of a public program providing textbooks to primary schools had modest positive impacts on teacher behavior but no impacts on student performance. In many treatment schools, student access to textbooks did not actually increase because a large majority of the books were stored rather than distributed to students. At the same time, the propensity to save books was positively correlated with uncertainty on the part of head teachers regarding government transfers of books. The evidence suggests that schools that have high uncertainty with respect to future transfers are more likely to store a high proportion of current transfers. These results show that reducing uncertainty in school input flows could result in higher current input use for student learning. For effective program design, public policy programs must take forward-looking behavior among intermediate actors into account
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (14 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van der Weide, Roy GLS Estimation and Empirical Bayes Prediction for Linear Mixed Models with Heteroskedasticity and Sampling Weights
    Abstract: This note adapts results by Huang and Hidiroglou (2003) on Generalized Least Squares estimation and Empirical Bayes prediction for linear mixed models with sampling weights. The objective is to incorporate these results into the poverty mapping approach put forward by Elbers et al. (2003). The estimators presented here have been implemented in version 2.5 of POVMAP, the custom-made poverty mapping software developed by the World Bank
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Verme, Paolo Female Labor Participation in the Arab World
    Abstract: Female labor participation in the Arab world is low compared with the level of economic development of Arab countries. Beyond anecdotal evidence and cross-country studies, there is little evidence on what could explain this phenomenon. This paper uses the richest set of panel data available for any Arab country to date to model female labor participation in Morocco. The paper finds marriage, household inactivity rates, secondary education, and gross domestic product per capita to lower female labor participation rates. It also finds that the category urban educated women with secondary education explains better than others the low level of female labor participation. These surprising findings are robust to different estimators, endogeneity tests, different specifications of the female labor participation equations, and different sources of data. The findings are also consistent with previous studies on the Middle East and North Africa region and on Morocco. The explanation seems to reside in the nature of economic growth and gender norms. Economic growth has not been labor intensive, has generated few jobs, and has not been in female-friendly sectors, resulting in weak demand for women, especially urban educated women with secondary education. And when men and women compete for scarce jobs, men may have priority access because of employers' and households' preferences
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Knack, Stephen Interactions among Donors' Aid Allocations
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of the World Bank's exogenously-determined income threshold for eligibility for concessionary International Development Association (IDA) loans on the allocations of bilateral donors. The donors might interpret the World Bank's policies and allocations across recipients as informative signals of where their own aid might be used most effectively. Alternatively, other donors might compensate for reduced IDA allocations by increasing their own aid. This paper shows that the signaling effect dominates any crowding out effects. The analysis uses panel data with country fixed effects and finds that aid from the bilateral donor countries is significantly reduced after countries cross the IDA income cutoff, controlling for other determinants of aid. Allocations by other donors are not sensitive to actual IDA disbursements, only to the IDA income threshold. Because crossing the income cutoff for eligibility significantly reduces aid levels from other donors as well as from the World Bank, government officials in recipient countries may have an incentive to manipulate their national accounts data to understate per capita income when it is near the IDA threshold. However, tests for "bunching" of observations just below the income threshold find no evidence to support data manipulation concerns. These findings suggest that graduation from IDA should be an even more gradual process than it already is, to dampen the sharp drops in aid experienced by countries after crossing an arbitrary income threshold
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (17 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woutersen, Tiemen Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Microcredit Programs on Household Income and Net Worth
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the utilization of microcredit programs has a significant impact on the income and net worth of the participants. Several micro finance institutes are optimistic on the beneficial effects of microcredit programs. Others describe microcredit with interest rates in excess of 20 percent as a poverty trap. This paper uses more than 20 years of panel data on households in Bangladesh to estimate bounds on the causal effects of microcredit programs. The analysis rejects the hypothesis that these microcredit programs are a poverty trap. Moreover, the paper finds moderately positive effects of such programs
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (71 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wagstaff, Adam Who Benefits from Government Health Spending and Why?
    Abstract: This paper uses a common household survey instrument and a common set of imputation assumptions to estimate the pro-poorness of government health expenditure across 69 countries at all levels of income. On average, government health expenditure emerges as significantly pro-rich, but there is heterogeneity across countries: in the majority, government health expenditure is neither pro-rich nor pro-poor, while in a small minority it is pro-rich, and in an even smaller minority it is pro-poor. Government health expenditure on contracted private facilities emerges as significantly pro-rich for all types of care, and in almost all Asian countries government health expenditure overall is significantly pro-rich. The pro-poorness of government health expenditure at the country level is significantly and positively correlated with gross domestic product per capita and government health expenditure per capita, significantly and negatively correlated with the share of government facility revenues coming from user fees, and significantly and positively correlated with six measures of the quality of a country's governance; it is not, however, correlated with the size of the private sector nor with the degree to which the private sector delivers care disproportionately to the better-off. Because poorly-governed countries are underrepresented in the sample, government health expenditure is likely to be even more pro-rich in the world as a whole than it is in the countries in this study
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cororaton, Caesar B The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific
    Abstract: This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Shilpi, Forhad Voting with Their Feet?
    DDC: 360
    Abstract: Using bilateral migration flow data from the 2010 population census of Nepal, this paper provides evidence on the importance of public infrastructure and services in determining migration flows. The empirical specification, based on a generalized nested logit model, corrects for the non-random selection of migrants. The results show that migrants prefer areas that are nearer to paved roads and have better access to electricity. Apart from electricity's impact on income and through income on migration, the econometric results indicate that migrants attach substantial amenity value to access to electricity. These findings have important implications for the placement of basic infrastructure projects and the way benefits from these projects are evaluated
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kee, Hiau Looi Local Intermediate Inputs and the Shared Supplier Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment
    Abstract: Trade liberalizations have been shown to improve domestic firms' performance through the new varieties of imported intermediate inputs. This paper uses a unique, representative sample of Bangladeshi garment firms to highlight that local intermediate inputs may also enhance domestic firms' performance, through the shared supplier spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) firms. An exogenous EU trade policy shock is shown to cause some FDI firms in Bangladesh to expand, which led to better performance of the domestic firms that shared their suppliers. Overall, the shared supplier spillovers of FDI explain 1/4 of the product scope expansion and 1/3 of the productivity gains within domestic firms
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Spatial Dynamics of Electricity Usage in India
    Abstract: India's manufacturing sector has undergone many spatial adjustments since 1989, including, for example, the organized sector's migration to rural locations, the powerful rise of informal manufacturing within cities, and the development of intermediate cities for manufacturing. This paper investigates the impact of these spatial adjustments for electricity usage in India's manufacturing sector. Striking spatial differences in energy usage exist, and whether spatial adjustments exacerbate or alleviate energy consumption strains is important for issues ranging from reducing India's power blackouts to stemming rising pollution levels. Using detailed surveys for the organized and unorganized sectors, the analysis finds that electricity usage per unit of output in urban plants declined steadily during 1989-2010. In the rural areas, by contrast, electricity consumption per unit of output for organized sector plants peaked in 2000 and thereafter declined. Decomposing the observed trends in aggregate electricity usage from 2000 onwards, the paper finds that most reductions in electricity usage per unit of output came from reductions in existing sites of activity (defined through state-industry-urban/rural cells). The second biggest factor leading to reduced usage was lower usage in fast-growing sectors. By contrast, spatial movements of manufacturing activity across India did not significantly change usage levels and may have even increased them. This appears to have been in part because of the split nature of the mobility, with organized and unorganized sectors migrating in opposite directions
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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