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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Potential Benefits and Risks of Increased Aid Flows To Burundi (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nielsen, Hannah Potential Benefits and Risks of Increased Aid Flows To Burundi
    Abstract: Burundi has experienced a significant increase in aid flows in recent years. Currently, about half of the budget is funded by aid, mostly grants. The high external assistance has, however, not yet translated into high and sustainable growth rates. This paper analyzes (i) the policy response of the government to the aid surge and its impact on macroeconomic variables; and (ii) the allocation of external assistance and its implications for growth. Since not all aid affects economic development in the same way, aid disbursements are disaggregated by sector as well as by their lag in impacting growth. The analysis shows that Burundi has mostly spent and absorbed increased aid flows, but has until now not suffered significantly from the possible negative effects of an appreciating exchange rate and the related loss of competitiveness, but the possibility of a Dutch disease effect remains a risk. The country’s low growth performance, despite high aid inflows, is not necessarily a sign that aid is ineffective or exceeding Burundi’s absorptive capacity. It reflects that a large share of aid has been allocated to either humanitarian and emergency aid or long-run growth enhancing sectors. Therefore, the lagged impact of aid on economic growth is not yet visible. Furthermore, the composition of the domestically financed budget is biased toward recurrent spending, and therefore not directly growth enhancing. In addition, low and often unpredictable aid disbursement ratios aggravate the bias away from investment and toward government consumption. To boost short-term growth, the share of aid allocated to productive sectors, such as agriculture and the supporting infrastructure, needs to be increased. Firm commitments and timely disbursements of aid by donors are essential and the Government of Burundi needs to strengthen its capacity and mechanisms for donor coordination
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5180
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Important is the Efficiency of Government Investment? : The Case of the Republic of Congo (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nielsen, Hannah How Important is the Efficiency of Government Investment?
    Abstract: The Republic of Congo, an oil rich country in Central Africa, has made substantial progress in the past decade in stabilizing the economy and achieving high growth rates. However, despite reaching middle-income country status in 2006, the economy is not diversified, poverty remains pervasive, and social indicators are well below the average for countries with a similar income level. This paper analyzes aspects of an ambitious investment program on which the government has embarked to improve the provision of basic services and promote private sector development. The success of this program, however, is questionable given the low absorptive capacity of the country and in particular the poor efficiency of public investment management. The analysis is based on simulations with an economy-wide model for analysis of development strategies and government policies, MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations). The results of the simulations show that slightly delaying large investment projects, while simultaneously improving the efficiency of the investment program, would lead to significantly higher growth rates and lower poverty levels. The analysis therefore confirms the importance of efficient public investment management for the optimal use of the country's resources
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5901
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Scaling Up Aid Or Scaling Down : the Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda's Mdgs (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lofgren, Hans Scaling Up Aid Or Scaling Down
    Abstract: Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4958
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? : Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time?
    Abstract: The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6849
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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