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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Should Emerging Markets Worry about U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements? (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gupta, Poonam Should Emerging Markets Worry about U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements?
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy announcements on emerging market economies since end-2008, the period coinciding with the use of unconventional policy measures. Monetary policy surprises are measured by changes in two-year Treasury yields in short windows of time around the Federal Reserve Board's policy announcements. The analysis finds that U.S. monetary policy surprises have a significant impact on emerging economies' exchange rates, equity prices, and bond yields. The impact is larger for surprise tightening of policy than for surprise easing. The impact is disproportionately larger for large surprises, implying that emerging markets are relatively insulated from anticipated policy announcements. The spillover effects of policy announcements of other advanced economies, such as the euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom, are found to be much weaker than those of the United States
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8100
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Capital Flows and Central Banking : The Indian Experience (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gupta, Poonam Capital Flows and Central Banking: The Indian Experience
    Abstract: Because of the steady liberalization of the capital account since the early 1990s and increased financial integration of the Indian economy, capital flows to India have moved in tandem with broad global trends. This paper looks at the extent to which India's monetary policy has been affected by the ebbs and flows of the capital it receives. For ease of narration, the paper divides the post-liberalization period since the early 1990s into three phases-early 1990s to early 2000s, a period of increasing but still modest capital flows; early 2000s to 2007-08, a period of capital flow surge when inflows increased rapidly; and a period of sudden stops and volatility, starting in 2008-09, when capital flows reversed in the post-Lehman Brothers collapse, and again during the tapering tantrum of 2013. The paper shows that although ordinarily domestic policy imperatives, such as price stability and growth, have taken precedence over issues related to exchange rate or capital flows in policy rate setting, some accommodation in money supply is evident during the surge and stop episodes. The broad policy mix to handle large increases or reversals of capital flows has included reserve management, liquidity management, and capital flow measures
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7569
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Capital flow measures : structural or cyclical policy tools? (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Strategy and Operations Team
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8418
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gupta, Poonam Capital Flow Measures: Structural Or Cyclical Policy Tools?
    Keywords: Kapitalverkehrskontrolle ; Geldpolitik ; Schwellenländer ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the use of capital flow measures in emerging markets. Drawing on a specially compiled new database of capital flow measures, it establishes that policy makers in emerging market economies do not use capital flow measures as an active tool at business cycle frequency. While there is a general trend toward the liberalization of capital accounts, the use of capital flow measures as a countercyclical policy tool is rather sporadic. Instead, countries show a distinct preference for using monetary policy, exchange rate adjustments, macro prudential measures, and adjustments in external reserves to modulate the impacts of domestic business cycles, international liquidity cycles, and shocks to capital flows. Regulation of different kinds of capital flows-resident and nonresident flows; inflows and outflows; and foreign direct investment, portfolio, and banking sector flows-is changed infrequently and is acyclical to domestic business and external liquidity cycles
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8418
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    India's growth story (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8599
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ahmad, Junaid Kamal India's Growth Story
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: India has attained much economic success in the past three decades. Yet an economic deceleration in recent years has generated worried commentaries about the country's growth outlook. This paper offers a long-term perspective on India's growth experience. Analyzing the past five decades of data, the paper notes that growth has slowly but steadily accelerated, become less erratic, and been well diversified across sectors and states. A more granular assessment of the period since the early 1990s finds that there were three distinct phases of growth: a period of slow acceleration from 1991 to the early 2000s; a short period of unusually rapid growth, with certain features of unsustainability, during 2004-08; and a corrective slowdown that started with the global financial crisis in 2008. The slowdown has been reflected most profoundly in investment, credit, and exports. Even as the economy has now recovered to a growth rate of 7 to 7.5 percent, durably accelerating it to a higher level will require a concerted policy momentum that succeeds in reversing the slowdown in investment, credit supply, and exports; and support from the global economy. Maintaining the hard-won macroeconomic stability, implementing a definite and durable solution to the banking sector issues, and realizing the expected growth and fiscal dividend from the Goods and Services Tax are some of the other factors that can help attain a higher growth rate
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8599
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tapering Talk : The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eichengreen, Barry Tapering Talk
    Abstract: In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6754
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What Makes a Currency Procyclical? : An Empirical Investigation (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cordella, Tito What Makes a Currency Procyclical?
    Abstract: This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries' currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies; (ii) countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts, perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality; (iii) countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy; (iv) however, in the last decade, there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy; and (v) the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating, which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries' net foreign asset positions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7113
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Managing Sudden Stops (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eichengreen, Barry Managing Sudden Stops
    Abstract: The recent reversal of capital flows to emerging markets has pointed up the continuing relevance of the sudden stop problem. This paper analyzes the sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets since 1991. It shows that the frequency and duration of sudden stops have remained largely unchanged, but that the relative importance of different factors in their incidence has changed. In particular, global factors appear to have become more important relative to country-specific characteristics and policies. Sudden stops now tend to affect different parts of the world simultaneously rather than bunching regionally. Stronger macroeconomic and financial frameworks have allowed policy makers to respond more flexibly, but these more flexible responses have not guaranteed insulation or mitigated the impact of the phenomenon. These findings suggest that the challenge of understanding and coping with capital-flow volatility is far from fully met
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7639
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    Online Resource
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Are Capital Flows Fickle? Increasingly? And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type? (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eichengreen, Barry Are Capital Flows Fickle? Increasingly? And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type?
    Abstract: According to conventional wisdom, capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, this paper asks whether this conventional wisdom still holds in the contemporary world. The results show that, despite recent structural and regulatory changes, much of it survives. FDI inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows. Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt and bank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. While FDI inflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debt and equity are driven mainly by push factors; and bank-intermediated flows are driven by a combination of push and pull factors. But capital outflows from emerging markets behave differently. FDI outflows from emerging markets have grown and become significantly more volatile. There is similarly an increase in the volatility of bank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets. The findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets, both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growing role and warrant greater attention from analysts and policy makers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7972
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Inflation targeting in India : an interim assessment (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9422
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eichengreen, Barry Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides an assessment of India's inflation-targeting regime. It shows that the Reserve Bank of India is best characterized as a flexible inflation targeter: contrary to criticism, it does not neglect changes in the output gap when setting policy rates. The paper does not find that the Reserve Bank of India became more hawkish following the transition to inflation-targeting; to the contrary, adjusting for inflation and the output gap, policy rates became lower, not higher. Some evidence suggests that inflation has become better anchored: increases in actual inflation do less to excite inflation expectations, indicative of improved anti-inflation credibility. The question is whether the shift to inflation-targeting has enhanced the credibility of monetary policy such that the Reserve Bank of India is in a position to take extraordinary action in response to the Covid-19 crisis. The paper argues that the rules and understandings governing inflation-targeting regimes come with escape clauses allowing central banks to shelve their inflation targets temporarily, under specific circumstances satisfied by the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper provides evidence that inflation-targeting central banks were able to respond more forcefully to the Covid-19 crisis, consistent with the idea that inflation expectations were better anchored, providing more policy room for maneuver
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9422
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth : Are Services Different? (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eichengreen, Barry The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth
    Abstract: This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6629
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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