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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (1,206)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,206)
  • München : Därr Expeditionsservice
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (1,206)
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (1,206)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? : Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10698
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Recording the Time Divide : A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic, Talip Recording the Time Divide: A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement
    Keywords: Cellular Phones ; Commercial Recall ; Consumption ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Telecommunications ; Usage Monitoring
    Abstract: Based on a randomized survey experiment in Malawi, this study examines how innovative techniques in time use data collection could sidestep measurement concerns with traditional recall-based time use measurement. The experiment assigns random samples of households, and adult men and women within, to one of two treatment arms on time use measurement: a traditional 24-hour recall time use diary, and a self-administered smartphone-based pictorial time diary, known as the TimeTracker app, for real-time data collection. Compared to the recall arm, participation in employment and unpaid domestic and care work is shown to be higher in the smartphone arm for both men and women. The resulting estimates of gender gaps, while continuing to be large, are narrower in the smartphone arm, except for care work where the estimated gender gap increases. The recall treatment leads to substantial underreporting of activities after 6 pm, which otherwise accounts for nearly 30 percent of daily reported time in the smartphone arm. Likewise, the extent of simultaneous activities, particularly among women, is markedly lower in the recall arm. The overall reported time is, however, higher in the recall arm due to the minimum 15-minute duration that was used for recording activities the 24-hour recall diary, while over one-third of activities lasted less than 15 minutes in the smartphone arm. The analysis also shows that using stylized time use questions with a 7-day recall, as opposed to a 24-hour recall diary, results in an even greater overestimation of reported time in employment and unpaid work
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10695
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Komatsu, Hitomi Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Female Entrepreneurs ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Governments often use simplified business tax systems, such as presumptive tax regimes, to register and tax small and microenterprises. Despite concerns about how such regimes could disproportionately affect female-owned and low-revenue entrepreneurs, there is a lack of empirical analysis examining the tax burden. The presumptive tax in Ethiopia has a complex assessment system, where the tax liabilities are determined according to the activity type and turnover (99 activities and 19 turnover bands), and some activities do not have a tax-free threshold. This paper uses two rounds of data in the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Surveys and the tax code to analyze the equity and gender implications of the presumptive tax on small and microenterprises by imputing the effective tax rates. There are three key findings. First, the effective tax rates are higher for businesses in the lowest quartile at 4.3 percent of turnover compared to 1.5 percent for businesses in the highest quartile, using the most recent survey, resulting in a regressive system. Second, male-owned businesses tend to operate in sectors without a tax-free threshold and are more likely than female-owned businesses to face higher tax rates. Third, the effective tax rates are high for businesses in food and beverage services, which is female-dominated, and for transit services, which is male-dominated, due to the lack of a tax-free threshold for these sectors. The study finds that an alternative presumptive tax system with a single tax rate on turnover and an exemption for all low-revenue businesses would be simpler for tax assessment and more progressive
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10707
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10737
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  • 5
    Online Resource
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    FY 2023 Fiji Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Fiji assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Fiji perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Fiji on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Fiji; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Fiji; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Fiji; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Fiji
    DOI: 10.1596/41306
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    Diversification through the Application of the Co-evolutionary Framework : Korea and Viet Nam (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Co-Evolutionary Framework ; Diversification ; Economic Growth ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Principle Of Relatedness ; Technology-Based
    Abstract: This research examines the diversification process by conceptualizing a co-evolutionary framework linking production and technology. The study applies the framework to retrospectively explain Korea's successful diversification path and to Viet Nam to identify how the country could further diversify into complex and value-added products. The authors apply relatedness analysis leveraging patent and trade data and present four different types of diversification patterns, namely unrelated diversification, production-based diversification, technology-based diversification, and complex diversification. Developed countries including Korea shifted toward technology-based or complex diversification strategies as their economies developed. Using a simulated scenario approach, the report outlines potential future trajectories wherein Viet Nam attains technological capabilities. The result shows that Viet Nam can diversify into 233 products if it accumulates capabilities in the 12 identified technologies. The report concludes with policy lessons that could inform policy makers in Viet Nam as well as other developing economies. Namely, that the country would need to invest more intensively in technology and capabilities upgrading to diversify into new complex products and evolve its diversification strategy alongside its economic growth and capability building process
    DOI: 10.1596/41312
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  • 7
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    Resilience Rating System : A Methodology for Building and Tracking Resilience to Climate Change - Synthesizing Key Lessons from IDA19 Piloting (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Environment ; IDA19 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rating System ; Resilience ; RRS
    Abstract: In response to the growing recognition that measuring inputs, such as climate finance, is not enough to capture the impacts of investments, the World Bank Group developed the Resilience Rating System (RRS). Developed over a two-year, multi-sectoral consultative process through close collaboration with internal and external actors, the RRS methodology aims to guide investment decisions and improve climate resilience in project design and outcomes. The methodology report is publicly available. The RRS evaluates and rates investment projects from C to A+, based on their resilience attributes in two complementary dimensions. The resilience of rating considers a project's design, reflecting the confidence that it will achieve its expected objectives and maximize development benefits in the face of climate and disaster risks. The resilience through rating considers a project's outcomes and reflects its contribution to improving climate resilience in the broader community, sector and systems, and to driving transformational adaptation. Combining the two dimension ratings provides an overall project rating, from CC to A+A+
    DOI: 10.1596/41225
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  • 8
    Online Resource
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    FY 2023 Azerbaijan Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Azerbaijan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Azerbaijan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Azerbaijan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Azerbaijan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Azerbaijan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Azerbaijan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Azerbaijan
    DOI: 10.1596/41169
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use : Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chen, Yutong Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use: Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program
    Keywords: Difference in Differences Specifications ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Labor Supply ; Low Skilled Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Cost ; Travel Subsidies ; Unemployed Women ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper estimates a synthetic difference-in-differences specification on the roll-out of a program providing free bus transit for women in several Indian states, to examine the impact on women's time allocation and labor supply. Household expenditures on buses fall and women save time on travel. However, there is substantial heterogeneity. Skilled employed women increase labor supply and reduce time on household chores. Low-skilled married women increase time on household activities and reduce labor supply. Unemployed women increase job search with no effect on employment. The findings show that gender roles within households undermine the effect of gender-specific travel subsidies on female labor supply
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10701
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  • 10
    Online Resource
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    Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moretti, Matias Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Emerging Markets Bond Index ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Inelastic Financial Markets ; Institutional Investors ; International Capital Markets ; International Financial Markets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Small Open Economies ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment device that reduces default risk
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10735
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  • 11
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    Territorial Development : A Report on the Territorial Development Approach to Accelerate Economic Growth and Development in the Kingdom of Lesotho (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Urban Study
    Keywords: Demographics and Aging ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Human Development and Gender ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Urban and Rural Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: This report begins with an Executive Summary, which introduces the territorial development approach and the rationale for applying it in Lesotho's development context before going on to summarize key takeaways and recommendations. It is followed by four chapters: chapter 1, Introduction, lays out the country context, presenting in brief Lesotho's economic and demographic situation, population projections, governmental structure, and poverty profile and the government's goals. Chapter 2, territorial development framework and analysis in Lesotho, discusses the territorial development approach, its objectives, and the challenges it aims to address before presenting a customized 2 by 2 territorial framework for Lesotho and explaining how it can be applied. Chapter 3, analyzing Lesotho's Challenges through a Territorial Lens, lays out a spatial analysis centering on four development challenges: economic opportunities, internal connectivity and regional integration, access to basic services, and climate preparedness. To highlight the challenges, the chapter includes 4D heat maps linked to density, distance, disparity, and disaster risk. It also summaries case studies and real-life applications of the territorial development approach in Lesotho. Full case studies are in an annex. Chapter 4, recommendations, covers guiding principles and recommendations based on the territorial development approach and analysis
    DOI: 10.1596/41248
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  • 12
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    FY 2023 Algeria Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Algeria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Algeria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Algeria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Algeria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Algeria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Algeria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Algeria
    DOI: 10.1596/41176
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  • 13
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    FY 2023 Uzbekistan Country Opinion Survey (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Uzbekistan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Uzbekistan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Uzbekistan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Uzbekistan
    DOI: 10.1596/41147
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  • 14
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    The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Giuliano, Fernando The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Shocks ; Droughts ; Econometrics ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Environmental Disasters and Degradation ; Floods ; Macro-Structural Model ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Uruguay is an economy that is vulnerable to precipitation patterns, as evidenced during the country's historic 2022/23 drought. Yet, and despite its rich macroeconomic and climate data environment, the country does not have a consistent macroeconomic model to address the aggregate impact of climate shocks, let alone the expected additional impact from climate change. This paper intends to fill this gap by integrating climate shocks into the World Bank's Macro-Fiscal Model, its workhorse structural macroeconomic projection model. Building on existing country studies on the sectoral effects of droughts and floods, the analysis finds that the volatility of a simulated Uruguayan economy only subject to historical climate shocks reaches 22 percent of the historical volatility of gross domestic product. Moreover, as climate shocks are only one of many shocks that can simultaneously affect an economy, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic shocks into historical climate shocks exacerbates volatility and increases potential losses. Gross domestic product can fall by 2.3 percent under a combined negative climate and macroeconomic shock of the type witnessed once every six years on average, and 4.1 percent under a once-in-40-years combined negative shock. Climate change compounds these effects going forward, worsening the magnitude of the downside risks from droughts by between 18 and 30 percent, although estimates incorporating climate change are subject to large uncertainty. The order of magnitude of these effects calls for a more systematic consideration of climate shocks in macroeconomic projections and fiscal risk assessments for Uruguay
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10740
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  • 15
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    Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pullinger, John Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Statistical System ; Statistical Capacity ; Statistical Capacity Index ; Statistical Indicators ; Statistical Performance
    Abstract: Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. This paper offers the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. It compares the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index with other widely used indexes, such as the Open Data Inventory index, the Global Data Barometer index, and other regional and self-assessment tools. The findings show that each index brings advantages in data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of countries and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. The Open Data Inventory index covers the most countries, the Global Data Barometer index collects data through its surveys, and the Statistical Performance Indicators and Index offer a broader framework for assessing statistical systems. The paper offers further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions for development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10717
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  • 16
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    Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century : Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10713
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  • 17
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    Stages of Diversification Redux (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10709
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  • 18
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    Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? : An Updated Review (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10697
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  • 19
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    FY 2023 Montenegro Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Montenegro assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Montenegro perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Montenegro on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Montenegro; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Montenegro; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Montenegro; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Montenegro
    DOI: 10.1596/41167
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  • 20
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    Liberia Country Climate Development Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
    DOI: 10.1596/41241
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  • 21
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    FY 2023 Kyrgyz Republic Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in the Kyrgyz Republic assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in the Kyrgyz Republic perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic on 1) their views regarding the general environment in the Kyrgyz Republic; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in the Kyrgyz Republic; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in the Kyrgyz Republic
    DOI: 10.1596/41153
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  • 22
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    Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost : Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10738
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  • 23
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    Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net? (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambel, Alemayehu A Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net?
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gap ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women and Tax ; Women Run Businesses
    Abstract: This study investigates gender disparities in the tax burden in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using data on 2,320 taxpayers for 2011 and 2012. A quantile regression analysis is employed to control for firm characteristics such as sector, size, and age. The results show that women-owned businesses are more likely to operate in low-profit sectors and report lower sales and tax liabilities than men-owned businesses. However, women-owned businesses pay as much as men-owned businesses in taxes, suggesting that they are subject to a higher effective tax rate. This, in turn, may lead to women-owned businesses exiting the tax net at a higher rate. These findings suggest that gender disparities in tax compliance are not simply due to differences in firm characteristics but may also be due to biases in tax declaration and enforcement processes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10712
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  • 24
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    Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Madrigal Correa, Alma Lucia Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines
    Keywords: Ancestral Domains ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict Data Monitor ; Indigenous Peoples ; Indigenous Peoples Law ; Land Titling ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mindano ; Political Economy ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10700
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  • 25
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    Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy : The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019 (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bou-Habib, Chadi Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019
    Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Crisis ; External Shock ; Famine ; General Equilibrium Simulation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mount Lebanon ; Natural Disaster
    Abstract: This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10688
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  • 26
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    FY 2023 Sao Tome and Principe Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Effectiveness ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Sao Tome and Principe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Sao Tome and Principe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Sao Tome and Principe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Sao Tome and Principe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Sao Tome and Principe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Sao Tome and Principe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Sao Tome and Principe
    DOI: 10.1596/41172
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  • 27
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    FY 2023 Cabo Verde Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Cabo Verde assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Cabo Verde perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Cabo Verde on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Cabo Verde; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Cabo Verde; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Cabo Verde; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Cabo Verde
    DOI: 10.1596/41168
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  • 28
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    Overcoming Left-Behindedness : Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10734
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  • 29
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    FY 2023 Turkiye Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Turkiye assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Turkiye perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Turkiye on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Turkiye; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Turkiye; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Turkiye; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Turkiye
    DOI: 10.1596/41305
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  • 30
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    The World Bank Group in Papua New Guinea : Country Program Evaluation, Fiscal Years 2008-23 (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Law ; Gender Based Violence ; Gender Equality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nonextractive Sectors ; Resilience
    Abstract: Papua New Guinea has abundant resources in the form of oil and mineral wealth. But a complex set of factors, including systemic gender inequality, underinvestment in non-extractive sectors, and fragility compounded by vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards act as barriers to sustainable and inclusive growth of the country. This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) report assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group support to Papua New Guinea between fiscal year FY08 and FY23. It assesses the Bank Group's development effectiveness in addressing the above three core themes, namely: (i) lack of investment in Papua New Guinea's non-extractive sectors and their poor performance, (ii) the economic exclusion of women and gender-based violence (GBV) issues associated with it, and (iii) unmitigated risks of disaster from natural hazards, and violence, and conflict. The report answers three specific questions. The first explores the extent to which the Bank Group adapted its engagement in line with key constraints, including in relation to development partners, changes in country context, and lessons from experience. The second focuses on the results of Bank Group support and explanatory factors for results under each them, answered by applying a gender lens where relevant. The third question explores the extent to which the Bank Group successfully identified and addressed conflict, violence, and disaster from natural hazards risks. The report offers key lessons to inform the World Bank Group's future engagement with the country: (i) Data gaps need to be addressed to inform sound policy making and effective programming in Papua New Guinea. (ii) Declining governance quality and increasing bilateral aid will require the World Bank to reassess how it supports key policy reforms to achieve development impact, including through using DPOs. (iii) The Bank Group could elevate its impact on gender equality and GBV by shifting from a project-centric approach to a strategic country engagement approach. (iv) The negative effects that compound and interrelated risks pose to achieving development aims need to be addressed more comprehensively
    DOI: 10.1596/41274
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  • 31
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    More, Better, and Inclusive Jobs in Kazakhstan : Social Protection and Jobs Europe and Central Asia - Analytical Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
    DOI: 10.1596/41222
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  • 32
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    Kazakhstan : Strengthening Public Finance for Inclusive and Resilient Growth: Public Finance Review (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Education ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Risks ; Footprint ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Oil Revenue ; Quasi-Fiscal Activities ; SNG
    Abstract: The first three chapters of the PFR review the core fiscal policy and revenue mobilization issues. Chapter 1 discusses the fiscal landscape, fiscal framework, and progressivity of fiscal policy. Chapter 2 looks at the footprint of quasi-fiscal activities, which affects the overall fiscal stance and exposes certain fiscal risks. Chapter 3 discusses the stagnation in non-oil revenue and collection across taxes and outlines reform options to improve the tax regime. This PFR also covers education and social protection spending, constituting about 42 percent of generalgovernment budget spending, and is critical for Kazakhstan's social agenda and long-term development goals. Chapter 4 analyzes the efficiency of public spending on education, discusses challenges in delivering equitable access to quality education, and offers options for enhancing spending effectiveness through institutional and policy changes. Chapter 5 discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of spending on the social protection system, particularly the coverage and targeting of social assistance programs, issues in implementing active labor market programs, and challenges in delivering social insurance. Because of data constraints, this PFR excludes analysis on social benefits, pensions, and the State Social Insurance Fund. The last two chapters cover the core system of public-finance management issues on budgeting and inter-governmental fiscal relations. Chapter 6 considers options for further improving budgeting, planning, and monitoring to deliver better fiscal outcomes for inclusive and resilient growth. While Chapter 7 examines emerging subnational fiscal issues and options to simplify and improve certainty in the transfer mechanism from central to SNGs and within the SNG hierarchy
    DOI: 10.1596/41162
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  • 33
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    Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (69 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Del Carmen, Giselle Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras
    Keywords: Administrative Registries ; Econometrics ; Economic Development ; Honduras ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Top Income
    Abstract: This paper presents distributional national accounts for Honduras over 2003-2019, using survey microdata, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. The estimates suggest a high and persistent inequality in the country: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of the total income over the period, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Undistributed corporate profits are the overwhelming income source at the very top of the distribution, highlighting its importance in the measurement of income inequality. Finally, using a panel of tax records, the paper also documents that not only is inequality persistent, but the same individuals are often observed at the top, suggesting that the observed inequality has deep roots
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10722
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  • 34
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    Digitalization of Government Services for a Better Business Environment in China : A Case Study on the Reform Experience of Zhejiang Province (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business Environment ; E-Government ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Governance ; Innovation and Technology Privacy ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The Chinese government has a long-standing commitment to business environment and digital government reforms. China's online government-to-business (G2B) services have enhanced public service efficiency, accessibility, and transparency, creating a more favorable business environment. This note features a case study of the all-in-one online government service platform developed in Zhejiang Province, a subnational leader in promoting e-government and business environment reforms. Following general national guidelines, Zhejiang has been a leader in exploring innovations to promote digital government development and business environment reforms. Its reforms both demonstrate the effectiveness of a proactive approach to leveraging digital technologies for administrative efficiency and an improved user experience and highlight the positive impacts on the business environment
    DOI: 10.1596/41326
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    FY 2023 Mali Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mali assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mali perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mali on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mali; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mali; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mali; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mali
    DOI: 10.1596/41303
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  • 36
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    Lao PDR Fiscal Incidence Analysis - Raising the Bar : Toward an Equitable and Inclusive Fiscal Policy (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
    DOI: 10.1596/40815
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    VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Thomas, Alastair VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Redistribution ; Reduced Rates ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Tax Reform ; Value Added Tax (VAT)
    Abstract: Most countries' value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and (to a lesser extent) social and cultural objectives. This paper assesses the case for applying reduced VAT rates, with a particular focus on OECD countries where reduced rates feature prominently. It examines both the theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as practical considerations, and concludes that the case for reduced VAT rates is weak. In particular, the optimal indirect tax literature finds no redistributive role for reduced VAT rates when other more direct instruments are available. These theoretical findings are supported by the empirical literature that shows reduced VAT rates to be a poorly targeted means of supporting lower income households, particularly when compared to targeted cash transfer programs. Similarly, reduced VAT rates are unlikely to be a well-targeted way to encourage consumption of merit goods, while they also create significant administrative complexity. These findings have significant implications for tax reform in both developed and developing economies. In particular, where countries have the administrative capacity to implement effectively targeted cash transfer programs, they should use these programs to support poorer households instead of reduced VAT rates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10677
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  • 38
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    Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error : Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10675
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    Costing Disasters : Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10668
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  • 40
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    Refining Indonesia's Intergovernmental Transfers Mechanism : Fiscal Capacity Estimation to Incentivize Subnational Tax Effort (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Fiscal Capacity Estimation ; Fiscal Policy ; Intergovernmental Transfers ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subnational Tax Effort ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper discusses the application of the conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation using Indonesia's existing macroeconomic indicators. The authors find that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, and urbanization rate are good predictors for most tax sources. These three indicators also predicted the total district's OSRs well, providing an empirical foundation for an aggregated macro-based model to estimate all OSRs using the abovementioned variables. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 1 provides a description of Indonesia's system of intergovernmental transfers and subnational taxation. It shows subnational fiscal reliance on transfers rather than OSRs. Section 2 makes the case for reforming the DAU formula and explains recent efforts by the Government of Indonesia on that front. Section 3 discusses the limited existing empirical literature on estimating potential revenues for transfers formula. Section 4 explains and applies our conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation. It also provides the empirical justification to use an aggregated approach to estimation rather than estimating each individual tax base. Section 5 applies the aggregated approach to estimating potential revenues. Section 6 discusses the equity implications and makes the case for using district fixed effects. Finally, section 7 provides a conclusion of this paper
    DOI: 10.1596/40975
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  • 41
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    Mauritania Human Capital Review : Building, Utilizing, and Protecting Human Capital for Inclusive and Resilient Economic Development (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Early Childhood ; Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Protection ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Strengths and Gaps
    Abstract: This human capital review assesses human capital outcomes in Mauritania and identifies actions to strengthen, utilize, and protect human capital. The government of Mauritania has demonstrated a strong commitment to placing human capital at the forefront of its long-term vision, with dedicated efforts focused on enhancing childhood health and education outcomes. Despite Mauritania's positive initiatives, the country's human capital wealth per capita has declined over the last 20 years; and it is imperative to look at ways to quickly reverse this situation. Children born today in Mauritania will only be 38 percent as productive when they grow up as they could have been had they enjoyed complete education and full health. Increasing the productivity of Mauritanians--both men and women--and thus allowing them to fully contribute to the development of their society entails transforming the human capital challenge to a human capital opportunity. This report takes a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach and proposes recommendations for building, protecting, and utilizing human capital in Mauritania
    DOI: 10.1596/40929
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  • 42
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    Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10657
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    FY 2023 Guinea Country Opinion Survey : Pulse Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Guinea perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Guinea on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Guinea; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Guinea; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Guinea; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Guinea
    DOI: 10.1596/40904
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    Ethiopia Country Program Evaluation (Approach Paper) (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragility ; CPE ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Drought and Climate Shocks ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mavroeconomic Vulnerabilities ; Unsustainable Development ; Weak Business Environment
    Abstract: The objective of this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) is to assess how well the World Bank Group supported Ethiopia in addressing key challenges that constrained its development and how that support adapted over time to respond to changing circumstances, an evolving relationship, and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover fiscal years (FY)13-23. The time period is selected to include the last two Bank Group strategies to support Ethiopia and coincides with the period of theprevious two political administrations. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group-supported Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia expected in FY25
    DOI: 10.1596/40887
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  • 45
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    Gulf Economic Update, Fall 2023 : Structural Reforms and Shifting Social Norms to Increase Women's Labor Force Participation (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Saudi Arabia ; Women ; Women and Labor
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Average growthin the GCC surpassed 7 percent in 2022 led by Saudi Arabia, its biggest economy, which was globally the fastest growing large economy. This growth was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil sectors. The latter was the result of persistent structural reforms undertaken by several GCC countries to improve the investment environment, promote flexible labor markets, and encourage women to join the labor market. GCC countries have used the windfall revenues from oil and gas to rebuild their buffers, pay down their debt, and shore-up their sovereign wealth funds. They have also sought to protect their vulnerable populations with continued subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities. Such policies have limited the impact of inflation on the domestic economy. Finally, GCC countries have also used their financial muscle to support economically weaker countries in the region. The stellar growth of 2022 is slowing down and growth is expected to moderate to 1 percent in 2023 before picking up again to 3.6 percent in 2024. The decline in economic activity in 2023 is driven by consecutive production cut decisions by OPEC+ in an effort to stabilize global oil prices. However, non-oil GDP continues its growth trajectory reaching 3.9 percent, resulting weaker integration between oil and non-oil sectors. To maintain this track record, GCC countries will need to continue to exercise prudent macroeconomic management, stay the course with structural reforms, and increase non-oil exports. Downside risks remain and it would be amiss not to mention them. The conflict in the Middle East presents major risks to the region and the GCC outlook if it extends or expands to include other regional players. While it is too early to quantify the impact and channels of the conflict, we already witness a 4 percentsurge in global oil futures. Although China is bouncing back after emerging from tight Covid-19 lockdowns, troubles in the real estate sector could still disrupt this trajectory. Persistent high inflation in the world's major economies has not been entirely vanquishedsuggesting a high interest rate environment for a longer period. Windfall revenues are anticipated as a result of higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a pivotal role in determining economicramifications not only on energy markets but also on regional financial and trade markets and overall economic confidence. The Special Focus section of the report discusses the power of structural reforms and social norms in advancing female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia experienced an unprecedented surge in female labor force participation since 2016 as a result of: (i) changing regulations and the removal of legal barriers, shifting social norms, (ii) the implementation of sound structural reforms and (iii) effective government communications. Saudi Arabia's success in increasing female labor force participation from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36 percent in 2023 offers important lessons to other countries in the region and the world
    DOI: 10.1596/40880
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    FY 2023 Ghana Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Ghana assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Ghana perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ghana on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Ghana; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Ghana; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Ghana; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Ghana
    DOI: 10.1596/40902
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    South Sudan Economic Monitor : Investing in Humans (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
    DOI: 10.1596/40856
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    FY 2023 Mongolia Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mongolia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mongolia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mongolia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mongolia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mongolia
    DOI: 10.1596/40909
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  • 49
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    Thailand Economic Monitor, December 2023 - Thailand's Pathway to Carbon Neutrality : The Role of Carbon Pricing (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Economic Development ; Energy Prices ; Growth and Real Sector ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pandemic and weak global trade has particularly impacted Thailand due to the country's position as a trade and tourism hub. Thailand's tourism arrivals reached only 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels in September despite the ongoing growth in global services trade. Visitor numbers increased across the board, except for China and Japan which are experiencing economic slowdown. The economic recovery faltered due to global headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2023 Q3, well below expectations. Thailand has implemented a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has taken the first steps to implementing comprehensive carbon pricing. This report explores some of the complexities involved in implementing carbon pricing. It finds that Thailand has already taken some of the most difficult steps in setting up a comprehensive carbon pricing policy instrument. Important questions remain to be addressed about what form carbon pricing should take in Thailand and which economic sectors should be included in a carbon pricing scheme. The potential benefits from carbon pricing may be substantial. Carbon pricing is likely to play an important role in meeting future emission reduction targets, reducing environmental degradation and air pollution while positioning Thailand as a regional leader in green and sustainable growth
    DOI: 10.1596/40882
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    China Economic Update, December 2023 : Which Way Forward? Navigating China's Post-Pandemic Growth Path (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demand Shortfalls ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Growth ; Inflation ; Investment Shifts ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Property Sector
    Abstract: Economic activity in China has picked up in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.2 percent y/y in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. The initial phase of economic reopening triggered a surge in economic activity in Q1, but growth momentum decelerated rapidly in Q2 before recovering modestly in Q3. The volatile growth performance, compounded by persistent deflationary pressures and still weak consumer confidence, suggests continued fragility in the recovery. China's investment deceleration has been one of the key drivers of the overall growth slowdown in recent years. Together with the decline in aggregate investment growth, there has been a marked shift in the composition of investment. Structural reforms are crucial both to accelerate rebalancing towards higher consumption and to mitigate risks of inefficiencies in capital allocation. Following recent statements by policymakers, a renewed focus on structural reform implementation with specific measures strengthening the rule of law, independent enforcement of regulations, fostering competition, and ensuring a level-playing field could help ensure that resources are allocated to the most productive sectors and firms. Deepening financial sector reform will enhance market-based financial intermediation. Measures to improve the progressivity of the fiscal system, reform the hukou system, and foster inclusive finance will support household consumption growth
    DOI: 10.1596/40875
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    Lao PDR 2023 - Forging Ahead : Restoring Stability and Boosting Prosperity (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
    DOI: 10.1596/40861
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    Nigeria Development Update, December 2023 : Turning the Corner: From Reforms and Renewed Hope, to Results (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
    DOI: 10.1596/40863
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    FY 2023 Zimbabwe Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Zimbabwe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Zimbabwe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Zimbabwe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Zimbabwe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Zimbabwe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Zimbabwe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Zimbabwe
    DOI: 10.1596/40914
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    CEMAC Economic Barometer, December 2023, Vol.5 (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CEMAC ; Country Level ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. The Economic Barometer also includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition's special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to take better advantage of future commodity price booms
    DOI: 10.1596/40864
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    FY 2023 Kenya Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Kenya assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Kenya perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Kenya on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Kenya; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Kenya; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Kenya; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Kenya
    DOI: 10.1596/40908
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    FY 2023 Serbia Country Opinion Survey : Pulse Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Serbia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Serbia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Serbia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Serbia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Serbia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Serbia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Serbia
    DOI: 10.1596/40911
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    Missing Evidence : Tracking Academic Data Use around the World (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10673
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 58
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    FY 2023 Jamaica Country Opinion Survey Report (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Jamaica assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Jamaica perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Jamaica on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Jamaica; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Jamaica; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Jamaica; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Jamaica
    DOI: 10.1596/40905
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 59
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    Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment : The Case of the West Bank and Gaza (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10687
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  • 60
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    Fiscal Incidence on the Island : Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence (2024)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10678
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  • 61
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    Racing Against Time : World Bank Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Racing against time
    Keywords: Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Kreditmarkt ; Entwicklung ; Tendenz ; CBRs ; Economic Development ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Palestinian Economy ; West Bank and Gaza
    Abstract: Operating in environments marked by fragility, conflict, and violence poses complex and distinct challenges, and the Palestinian case is no different. A significant body of literature has emphasized the specific bottlenecks that exist, ranging from - in the first place - the movement, access, trade, and investment restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) on the West Bank, and the near-blockade of Gaza, the noncontiguous geography of the territories, to the program advanced by the Palestinian Authority on structural reforms lacking momentum, and increasing penury of foreign aid. Numerous analytical and policy papers - spanning at least three decades, since the establishment of the AHLC forum - have emphasized the severity of the challenges at hand and the imperative of fostering cooperation among all parties. Despite relative clarity on the objectives, progress on the implementation of priorities has been modest, resulting in increased complexity and urgency at the present day. At the behest of the AHLC, this report aims to guide the renewed efforts of the PA and the GoI, the global community, and - more broadly - all relevant policymakers and stakeholders, as they lay the groundwork for sustainable growth and shared prosperity in the Palestinian territories and the wider region. In line with the above, the findings of this report are unsurprising. Unlocking the economic potential of the West Bank and Gaza requires urgent action, in order to spur per capita growth beyond near-stagnation levels, as well as to put the fiscal situation on a sounder footing. The removal, or at least a significant reduction, of restrictions by Israel is a vital prerequisite. Simultaneously, steadfast commitment by the PA to the implementation of a comprehensive reform agenda will be paramount to bolster both recovery and resilience, along with reinforcing institutional governance. In addition, as this report indicates, addressing shortfalls in the health sector will be pivotal to improve the efficiency of public spending, safeguarding human capital, improving service delivery, and revitalizing economic opportunities in a context marked by decades of fragility. While underscoring the burning pressure of these challenges, the World Bank remains fully committed to continuing its close technical collaboration with the PA, the GoI, and all relevant development partners, to help forging a path towards stability, security, economic progress and prosperity, and to contribute to the collective aspiration for a brighter future
    DOI: 10.1596/40403
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    A Metadata Schema for Data from Experiments in the Social Sciences (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cavanagh, Jack A Metadata Schema for Data from Experiments in the Social Sciences
    Keywords: Data Publicaiton ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Data and Statistics ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Interoperable Social Sciences Data ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Metadata ; Population Sciences ; Program Evaluation ; Randomized Control Trial ; Secondary Research ; Social Sciences Research ; Technology Innovation ; Trial Registration
    Abstract: The use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the social sciences has greatly expanded, resulting in newly abundant, high-quality data that can be reused to perform methods research in program evaluation, to systematize evidence for policymakers, and for replication and training purposes. However, potential users of RCT data often face significant barriers to discovery and reuse. This paper proposes a metadata schema that standardizes RCT data documentation and can serve as the basis for one-or many, interoperable -data catalogs that make such data easily findable, searchable, and comparable, and thus more readily reusable for secondary research. The schema is designed to document the unique properties of RCT data. Its set of fields and associated encoding schemes (acceptable formats and values) can be used to describe any dataset associated with a social science RCT. The paper also makes recommendations for implementing a catalog or database based on this metadata schema
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10296
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  • 63
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    Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Keywords: Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Abstract: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283
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  • 64
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    Institutional Trust, Perceptions of Distributive Unfairness, and Income across Salvadoran Municipalities (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio Institutional Trust, Perceptions of Distributive Unfairness, and Income across Salvadoran Municipalities
    Keywords: Attitude Towards Institutions ; Distributive Unfairness ; Governance ; Income and Government Satisfaction ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Preference for Democracy ; Trust
    Abstract: Using multiple waves of two public opinion surveys and a two-way fixed effect model, this paper analyzes how people's perceptions and attitudes towards public institutions shifted with the business cycle in El Salvador during 2004-2018. It finds that individuals' levels of trust toward both the president and the municipal government are positively associated with higher levels of income at the municipality level. Income is also a strong predictor of trust in mass media, confidence in the judicial system and, to a lesser extent, trust in the national legislature but income does not affect trust in the Catholic Church. The relationship between income and trust toward the president and municipalities masks a relevant heterogeneity from a rural-urban divide as well as from differences in municipal state capacity. Further, views of income distribution fairness as well as preferences for democracy are positively shaped by municipality-specific business cycles. In contrast, neither generalized trust nor satisfaction with democracy is empirically associated with income at the municipality level
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10372
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  • 65
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    The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions : A Modeling Framework (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions: A Modeling Framework
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation Investment ; Decarbonization ; Fossil Fuel Transformation ; Macroeconomic Modeling ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net-Zero Emissions Economy ; Social Development ; Technological Change
    Abstract: Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Turkiye's objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Turkiye's economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10367
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  • 66
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    The Fragility and Resilience of Nations (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Karayalcin, Cem The Fragility and Resilience of Nations
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Economic Fragility ; Fragility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Shock Resilience ; Nature-Based Assets ; Property Rights ; Resilience ; Resource-Intensive Sectors Resilience ; Trade Regime
    Abstract: Climate change will impose large and differentiated tolls across countries. This paper suggests that economic fragility and resilience against climate change-driven natural shocks are shaped by: (i) the elasticity of input substitution in resource-intensive sectors, (ii) the trade regime, and (iii) the property rights regime in nature-based assets. Using a structural transformation model, the paper shows, inter alia, that openness increases resilience against natural shocks, regardless of the property right regime. Additionally, openness reduces fragility when a social planner internalizes the social cost of natural resource degradation. However, it increases fragility in a decentralized economy with incomplete property rights in nature-based assets
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10362
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    Potential Growth : A Global Database (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (77 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth: A Global Database
    Keywords: Declining Growth Potential ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Global Growth Database ; Growth Expectations in Developing Economies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measures of Potential Growth ; Production Function
    Abstract: Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10354
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    Bulgaria Country Economic Memorandum : A Path to High Income (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Investment ; Productivity Growth ; Public Investment
    Abstract: Bulgaria has followed sound macroeconomic policy in recent years and has weathered the Covid-19 economic crisis relatively well. The country embarked on a thorough transformation to a functioning market economy in the run-up to European Union (EU) membership in 2007 which, since 2018, has been followed by a firm course towards eurozone entry. But income convergence to average EU levels has been held back by low pre-crisis economic growth averaging only 2.1 percent in 2010-2019. At pre-Covid-19 crises growth rates, Bulgaria is not expected to converge to average EU income levels in the foreseeable future. The average income level masks substantial regional inequalities which continue to widen and undermine human capital formation and growth. A key constraint that can be seen in all growth policy areas, and also limits the pace of greening of the Bulgarian economy, is weak governance capacity and institutions. This report is organized around the World Bank long-term growth model (LTGM) which allows to simulate Bulgaria's growth path under different scenarios. The structure of the report focuses on the key identified constraints to and opportunities for Bulgaria's faster long-term economic growth and income convergence. The report discusses complementary policy areas when needed and refers to related studies for more in-depth analysis and policy options in these cases
    DOI: 10.1596/38566
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    Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2022 - Public Investment : Maximizing the Development Impact (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Debt Management ; Economic Growth ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Developments ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Public Investment
    Abstract: Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan's growth exceeded expectations during the first half of 2022. Propelled by a strong rebound in international tourism, the full reopening of the economy, and improving exports, real GDP accelerated to 2.7 percent. However, the rebound in economic activity was only modestly reflected on labor market indicators with unemployment rates declining only gradually. Inflation has reached its highest level since 2018 but remains contained compared to regional peers, due to temporary fuel subsidies and a number of other price control measures introduced in 2022. Yet, the untargeted subsidy support came at a fiscal cost as fiscal consolidation adjustments have slowed down despite good tax performance. On the external front, elevated global commodity prices led to a significant rise in Jordan's import bill, outpacing the effect of the increased merchandise exports and tourism. Moreover, capital and financial inflows did not keep up with the widening current account deficit, resulting in a widening of the balance of payment deficit and a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, due to its substantial reserve buffers, the Central Bank's gross foreign reserves remained at an adequate level, while Jordan continues to retain investors' confidence and access to foreign financial markets. Jordan's economic recovery in 2022 is expected to be driven by a full rebound of the services sector, helped by the full reopening of the economy and a strong rebound in tourism. However, highly volatile global fuel and food prices are impacting both domestic consumption and the trade balance. Risks surrounding Jordan's outlook include a looming global economic downturn, prolongation of the global food and energy crisis, and the impact of higher borrowing costs and widening losses from state-owned water and electricity sectors on debt dynamics. The Special Focus highlights the role of public investment as a driver of growth, with a particular focus on its recent trends, as well as its efficiency and effectiveness. This is particularly relevant given Jordan's constrained fiscal envelope. Public investment spending has been suffering from a steady decline during the past two decades to meet the fiscal consolidation targets, consistent under-execution, large dependency on external aid and lack of budget for operation and maintenance cost. Its efficiency can be maximized by having in place financially realistic long-term strategic planning, transparent project selection and an adoption of a medium-term perspective. Purposefully integrating climate concerns in public investments would also advance the country's achievement of its climate targets
    DOI: 10.1596/38510
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    Public Expenditure and Revenue Review for Burkina Faso : Fiscal Reforms for Resilience (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Domestic Revenue Mobilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PERR ; Public Expenditure and Revenue Review ; Revenue
    Abstract: This Public Expenditure and Revenue Review (PERR) identifies Burkina Faso's key public spending and revenue challenges and proposes solutions to develop more effective and transparent fiscal policies. The review, carried out by a World Bank team with inputs from the Government of Burkina Faso, is the first such core diagnostic for the country in more than 10 years. It fills an important information gap and serves as a starting point for deeper analyses in three areas: (a) domestic revenue mobilization, (b) the sectoral allocation of public expenditure, and (c) public financial management
    DOI: 10.1596/38468
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    Indonesia Economic Prospects : Trade for Growth and Economic Transformation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Tax Reforms ; Transformation
    Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global trade and supply chains, exacerbating the rise in global commodity and food prices. Persistently high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth brings fears of stagflation that could endure for several years. Amidst this environment, the US Federal Reserve and other advanced economy central banks sharply tightened monetary policy to curb inflation. This has translated into tighter external financing conditions and financial stress for some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as capital outflows have intensified. Despite global slowdown, Indonesia has experienced strong growth in 2022 thanks to commodity windfalls and a reopening of the economy. Indonesia's external vulnerability has been low to moderate as strong exports have supported the external balance although tighter global finances have put some pressure on the capital account. Indonesia is projected to have a robust growth over the next three years though with significant downside risks emanating from the global economic environment. To address current macrofiscal policy challenges, the report highlights three policy and institutional areas that may warrant attention going forward. The first is about continuing with the implementation of tax reforms to broaden the tax base and improve compliance of business tax collection. The second is related to public spending where the authorities could over time move towards a rules-based pricing model for energy to contain subsidy pressures. The third is improving targeting and expanding coverage of existing social assistance and social insurance programs. This means filling coverage gaps, developing a system that provides a guaranteed minimum protection across the lifecycle, and strengthening delivery systems
    DOI: 10.1596/38451
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    Syria Economic Monitor, Winter 2022/23 : Syria's Economy in Ruins after a Decade-long War (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict ; Damage Assessment ; Economic Assistance ; Economic Challenges ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Insecurity ; Fiscal Policies ; Food Inaccessibility ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Syria ; Trade
    Abstract: The World Bank's teams have been resorting to the use of a mix of standard tools and innovative geospatial and remote-based data sources (e.g., nighttime lights, shipping-position data, traffic congestion data, aviation statistics, mobile phone location data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and conflict intensity maps) to reveal economic trends and analyze unrecorded activities that are prominent in war-torn economies like Syria. Macroeconomic conditions in Syria have substantially deteriorated since the start of the war in Ukraine. Already very high, the vulnerability of Syrian households is on the rise. Subject to high uncertainty, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2023, following a 3.5 percent decline in 2022
    DOI: 10.1596/39611
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    Maldives Development Update, April 2023 : Navigating a Tight Line (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Economic Outlook ; Fiscal Deficit ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Lending ; Public DEBT
    Abstract: The economy has recovered to pre-pandemic levels and, with rising tourist arrivals, is expected to maintain a strong growth and poverty reduction trajectory over the medium term. Commodity price volatility is driving inflation and exerting pressure on fiscal and external balances, through costlier imports and higher subsidies. Despite recent improvements, public debt is expected to remain high, warranting continued efforts to reduce fiscal deficits, including comprehensive subsidy reforms while mitigating impacts on the vulnerable
    DOI: 10.1596/39627
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    Price Adjustments and Poverty Measurement (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amendola, Nicola Price Adjustments and Poverty Measurement
    Keywords: Cost-Of-Living Differences ; Household Income and Expenditure Survey ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Measurement ; Price Adjustment ; Price Indexes
    Abstract: Measuring poverty entails making interpersonal welfare comparisons, that should account for differences in prices faced by households, both over time and across space. This paper investigates the impact of seemingly minor differences in the practical implementation of price adjustments, by developing an analytical framework that is consistent with standard consumer theory and mindful of the data limitations faced by practitioners. The main result is at odds with common sense: even when multiple price indexes are available, say a food and a nonfood Consumer Price Index, it turns out that using a single price index, the total Consumer Price Index, to adjust the consumption aggregate is recommended. The practice of adjusting the components of the consumption aggregate separately, using matching deflators-food expenditure with the food index and nonfood expenditure with the nonfood index-can lead to a systematic bias in the welfare measure, and consequently in poverty and inequality measures. The direction of the bias can be easily predicted based on the price level and household consumption patterns. On the interplay between spatial and temporal deflation, the findings show that temporal deflation should be carried out before implementing adjustments to spatial cost-of-living differences. The paper illustrates these findings using the Islamic Republic of Iran's 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey: the bias in the headcount poverty rate due to incorrect deflation is substantive (5-10 percent for estimates at the national level, 15-20 percent in urban and rural areas, and more than 30 percent for district-level headcount rates). Higher-order Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures are even more affected
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10426
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    The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis : Busting Myths through a Demonstration (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Case Study Review ; Case-Based Evaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation Design ; Intervention Effectiveness ; Interventions and Outcomes ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; World Bank Support To Carbon Finance Case Study
    Abstract: Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank's support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs
    DOI: 10.1596/39773
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  • 76
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    Making the European Green Deal Work for People : The Role of Human Development in the Green Transition (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Environmental Study
    Keywords: Circular Economy ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Impacts ; Environment ; Green Transition ; Human Development ; Human-Centered ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Climate change is the single most important existential threat of our times. Mounting average global temperature contributes to rising sea levels, more frequent extreme weather events, deteriorating biodiversity, and shifts in the sustainability of agriculture and aquaculture. The European Green Deal (EGD) is the response of the European Union (EU) to the climate challenge. It will establish regulations and incentives to nudge European society toward a more sustainable economy. To achieve these ambitious goals the EGD combines a wide range of regulations, policies, and intervention. But a green transition is only possible with an enabling human transition, and only with the proper human development (social) policies to support this transition. This report identifies the human development (HD) policies needed to enable the green transition in Europe
    DOI: 10.1596/39729
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    Planning for Success : Strategies of Investment Promotion Agencies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Investment and Investment Climate ; Investment Promotion Agencies ; IPA Strategy ; KPI ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monitoring and Evaluation ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics
    Abstract: Governments establish investment promotion agencies (IPAs) as part of the larger framework fostering private sector development and contributing to achieving national development objectives. IPAs do this by attracting and supporting investments that will translate into more and better jobs; higher wages; more revenue for local businesses; and the skills, technologies, and new economic activities which will, in turn, lead again to more jobs, wages, and local revenue. In order to do this, the IPA must identify its own strategic objectives and chart a path towards the achievement of these objectives. Cascading from national strategies and plans, the IPA's strategy is a key tool that helps it succeed by guiding it to focus on the investors most likely to invest and generate the desired impacts, engage in the most suitable activities to cater to investors along the investment lifecycle, and make the best use of its resources, capabilities, and partnerships. This note serves as a guide to IPAs and policy makers in the development, adoption, and implementation of IPA strategies, drawing on World Bank Group experience and examples of good practices around the world. It presents the essential elements of an investment promotion strategy and the critical steps for its development and implementation
    DOI: 10.1596/39644
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  • 78
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    Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models : Estimates for 191 Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Devarajan, Shantayanan Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models: Estimates for 191 Countries
    Keywords: Armington ; Consumption ; Econometric Estimate ; Export Elasticity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade Elasticities ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Armington's insight that imports and domestically produced goods were imperfect substitutes has unleashed extensive estimates of the associated trade elasticity, primarily for developed countries. This notion of product differentiation, which extends symmetrically to exports and domestic goods, has underpinned trade-focused, computable general equilibrium models of developing countries, including the aggregate, compact version, the 1-2-3 model. Noting that estimates of trade elasticities for developing countries are few, this paper remedies the situation. Using the vector error correction model as the primary method and controlling for global trends and other factors, the analysis derives the long-run elasticity estimates for 191 countries, ranging from China (population of 1.4 billion) to Tuvalu (11,200), including 45 of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries and understudied countries such as Benin, the Republic of Congo, Niger, Fiji, Haiti, Kiribati, and Tajikistan. Import and export elasticities of high-income countries average about 1.4, reflecting the greater diversity of their economies; developing countries' elasticities average around 0.7 for imports and 0.6 for exports. Elasticities generally rise with per capita income. That the elasticity is greater than one for developed and less for developing countries implies asymmetric responses to shocks, which conforms to intuition and corroborates the analytical results from the 1-2-3 model
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10490
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  • 79
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    Measuring Total Carbon Pricing (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Agnolucci, Paolo Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
    Keywords: Carbon Mitigation ; Carbon Tax ; Climate Change Economics ; Emissions Trading ; Fiscal Instrument ; Fossil Fuel Transition ; Fuel Subsidies ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development ; Total Carbon Price
    Abstract: While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing-such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms-remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal for carbon emissions and the incentive it creates This paper develops a methodology for calculating a total carbon price applied to carbon emissions in a sector, fuel, or the whole economy. It recognizes that rarely is a single carbon price applied across an economy; many direct carbon pricing instruments target specific sectors or even fuels, much like indirect taxes on fossil fuels; and carbon and fuel taxes can be substituted one for another. Tracking progress on carbon pricing thus requires following both kinds of price interventions, their coverage, and specific exemptions. This inclusive total carbon pricing measure can facilitate progress in discussions on minimum carbon price commitments and inform assessments of the pricing of carbon embodied in traded goods. Calculations across 142 countries from 1991 to 2021 indicate that although direct carbon pricing now covers roughly a quarter of global emissions, the global total carbon price is not that much higher than it was in 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. Indirect carbon pricing still comprises the lion's share of the global total carbon price, and it has stagnated. Taking these policy measures into account reveals that many developing countries-particularly net fuel importers-contribute substantially to global carbon pricing. Tackling fuel subsidy reform and pricing coal and natural gas emissions more fully would have a profound effect on aligning carbon prices across countries and sectors and with their climate costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10486
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  • 80
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    The Power of Religion : Islamic Investing in the Lab (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Banuri, Sheheryar The Power of Religion: Islamic Investing in the Lab
    Keywords: Economic Investment and Savings ; Experimental Methods ; Faith-Based Funds ; Faith-Based Investing ; Investor Behavior ; Islamic Investment ; Islamic Mutual Funds ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mutal Funds ; Socially Responsible Investment
    Abstract: Faith-based mutual funds have recently become a growing corner of the mutual fund industry. Morality and ethics are thought to exert an influence on investors' decisions in this segment, although their role in driving such investments is not clear as these funds are also attractive due to their distinct risk-return profile. If nonpecuniary motives are predominant, investors in such funds may be less sensitive to financial performance, resulting in different patterns of fund flows relative to conventional funds. This paper fills the gap in the literature, by providing an express linkage between religious preferences and investment in an Islamic fund. Using an incentivized lab experiment, the analysis compares the extent to which investors with religious preferences are likely to accept inferior financial performance to pursue investments aligned with their religious preferences. The findings show that investment in an Islamic fund is driven by religious preferences and religiosity is strongly tied to investor loyalty in the Islamic fund, with investors more willing to accept reductions in returns and increases in risk. The analysis fails to find that social preferences play a similar role in socially responsible funds. When pitted directly against each other, investors prefer religious investments over socially responsible investments, suggesting that they do not view the two as substitutes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10459
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  • 81
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    Tackling Noncommunicable Diseases in Kosovo to Enhance Human Capital and Economic Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Capital ; Impact ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; NCDS ; Noncommunicable Diseases
    Abstract: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) hamper the development of human capital for current and future generations. NCDs are chronic conditions that are often untreatable and require close monitoring to control the progression of the disease. They account for 70 percent of all deaths worldwide and directly affect countries' economies, as every 10 percent increase in mortality due to NCDs reduces economic growth by 0.5 percent. NCDs have a direct and indirect impact that threatens the human capital of current and future generations
    DOI: 10.1596/39936
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  • 82
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    Gulf Economic Update, Spring 2023 : The Health and Economic Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases in the GCC (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; GCC ; Gulf Cooperation Council ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; NCDS ; Non-Communicable Diseases
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies performed strongly in 2022. Amidst a year of economic uncertainty marked by inflation, geopolitical crises, and supply chain insecurity, the GCC region registered remarkable GDP growth of 7.3 percent in 2022. Progress made on structural reforms are bearing fruits on the economy. Despite the uptick, inflation remains relatively muted in comparison to other high-income countries. Looking ahead, the GCC region is projected to grow at a slower pace. The main contributors to this growth are private consumption, fixed investments, and government expenditures through looser fiscal policy in response to high oil revenues. However, downside risks to the outlook are numerous. Special Focus: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) pose a major health burden to the population and governments of the GCC. NCDs are also a growing concern from an economic perspective. To mitigate the health and economic burden of NCDs, the region needs to scale up efforts to target the behavioral and environmental risk factors of NCDs. Effectively addressing NCDs requires a whole-of-government approach, and the effective implementation and monitoring of targeted, evidence-based solutions. Addressing the risk factors of NCDs requires an increased strategic focus on prevention over treatment, targeting of the young and adolescents, and the development and implementation of evidence-informed, cost effective, high impact interventions. Governance structures that can effectively mobilize, incentivize, and hold accountable the many non-health sectors in the implementation and monitoring of cost-effective interventions are critical
    DOI: 10.1596/39932
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  • 83
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    Yemen Country Economic Memorandum 2022 : Glimmers of Hope in Dark Times (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Economic Memorandum
    Keywords: Conflict ; COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Food Insecurity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Yemen's economy has been transformed by eight years of violent conflict. War has shattered the country's already fragile economic equilibrium, touching upon virtually every aspect of life. The compounded shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global prices have only deepened the economic and humanitarian disaster precipitated by the war. Since the start of the conflict, economic analyses have tended to focus on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, the sharp rise in poverty and food insecurity, and the destruction of infrastructure and the capital stock, but relatively little attention has been paid to the current structure of the economy or what prospects can be envisaged for the country. Also, it is important to situate this analysis within the political economy dynamics of the country which majorly affect the economic development challenges of the country. Data constraints and the unique characteristics of Yemen's recent experience limit the effectiveness of traditional growth-analysis methodologies. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) uses novel data-collection methods and analytical techniques, triangulating its findings with traditional approaches and direct data collection to close the economic knowledge gap. Information sources include extensive key-informant interviews, household phone surveys, and remotely sensed geospatial data based on satellite imagery, including nighttime illumination data. This CEM also combines an in-depth political economy analysis with economic development investigation
    DOI: 10.1596/39914
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  • 84
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    Cambodia Economic Update, May 2023 : Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Spending
    Abstract: Cambodia's economic recovery solidified in 2022 with real growth accelerating to 5.2 percent. After shifting to "living with COVID-19" in late 2021, the economy is firmly on a path to recovery and has now returned to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Initially led by the strong performance of export-oriented manufacturing, growth drivers are rotating to the services and agriculture sectors. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is benefitting from improved access to regional markets, thanks to newly ratified bi-lateral and regional free trade agreements. Weakening external demand is, however, starting to weigh on the country's economic recovery. Despite weakening goods export performance, the current account balance is improving, thanks to the rebound in the travel and tourism industry and remittances, while the oil price shock eased. The economic recovery and good revenue administration underpinned an across-the board improvement in domestic revenue collection. The authorities continued to provide cash transfers for poor and vulnerable households, although the worst of the pandemic is now behind us. In this regard, the Cambodian authorities have extended the COVID-19 cash transfer program, with an additional budget. To enhance the long-term resilience and competitiveness of the economy, efforts are needed to further promote export product diversification
    DOI: 10.1596/39931
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  • 85
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    Republic of Congo Economic Update, 10th Edition, June 2023 : Reforming Fossil Fuel Subsidies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Fossil Fuels Subsidies ; Hydrocarbon Prices ; Inflation ; Macroeconomic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Performing Loans ; Social Safety Nets ; Transport Sector
    Abstract: This is the tenth edition of the Republic of Congo Economic Update. Each edition of this annual report presents an overview of the Republic of Congo's (ROC) evolving macroeconomic position, followed by a detailed exploration of a specific topic. The first chapter of this year's update presents recent economic developments and macroeconomic outlook and risks. It also includes policy actions that could help strengthen fiscal and debt sustainability, contain food inflation, and sustain economic recovery. The second chapter discusses fossil fuel subsidies, which represent a significant fiscal burden in the Republic of Congo
    DOI: 10.1596/39923
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  • 86
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    Is the Magic Happening? : A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Multiplier of Cash Transfers (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gassmann, Franziska Is the Magic Happening? A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Multiplier of Cash Transfers
    Keywords: Cash Transfer ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Policy ; Local Economy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multiplier ; Poverty Alleviation ; Return ; Safety Net ; Social Accounting Matrix ; Social Assistance ; Social Protection ; Spillover Effect
    Abstract: The multiplier effects of cash transfers are receiving renewed attention globally. The existence of multipliers-or the generation of additional dollars for every one dollar injected as cash transfers-illuminates new aspects of the impacts of social assistance and holds the potential to redefine how "fiscal sustainability" is generally interpreted. However, multipliers also attract questions: are multipliers real and tangible How are multipliers estimated What method might be more suitable than others in different contexts What does the evidence reveal about those effects This paper briefly summarizes emerging findings from existing literature on low- and middle-income countries, including a total of 23 studies. The paper discusses the main estimation methods, such as social accounting matrix and econometric techniques; presents results on multipliers across studies; and draws lessons for future research and practice
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10529
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  • 87
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    Issuer Composition and Stock Market Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Doumbia, Djeneba Issuer Composition and Stock Market Growth
    Keywords: Domestic Stock Market Growth ; Economic Growth ; Economic Outcome of Stock Issuers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Equity Issuers ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Issuer Composition ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sectoral Diversity ; Stock Market
    Abstract: Does issuer composition change as stock markets grow, and, if so, how An increase in market capitalization may be driven by growth on the intensive or extensive margin. Such growth may also influence the level of market concentration and diversity among listed firms. Using a novel dataset, this paper examines how the number, concentration, and sectoral diversity of issuers change as domestic stock markets grow, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries. The results show that an increase in stock market capitalization tends to be associated with only growth on the intensive margin. Greater market activity, however, is linked to entry of new issuers and for low- and middle-income countries, also to marginally lower market concentration. However, there is no evidence that sectoral diversity changes with market size or activity. These findings have important implications for firm financing as stock markets may not necessarily become more inclusive as they grow
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10523
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  • 88
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    2022 Comoros Public Expenditure Review : Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Foster an Inclusive Growth (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Challenges ; Inclusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure Review
    Abstract: The Union of the Comoros is a small-island country in Eastern Africa that recorded a modest economic expansion and suffered from various fiscal challenges during the last decade that had an impact on long-term growth. Limited fiscal space to address development needs explains the country's low human capital and poor quality infrastructure, which in turn hamper efforts to increase productivity and private sector growth. In addition, due to low performing State-owned enterprise (SOEs) and weakening economic performance, Comoros faces significant fiscal risks. The analysis presented in this PER supports the efforts of the government of Comoros to enhance public expenditure efficiency, create fiscal space, and limit fiscal risks. The analysis is designed to focus on public investment management (PIM) and public financial management (PFM), identify reforms that could yield fiscal and efficiency gains, and assess the governance of SOEs
    DOI: 10.1596/40112
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    Mozambique Poverty Assessment, June 2023 : Poverty Reduction Setback in Times of Compounding Shocks (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Poverty Assessment
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environmental Shocks ; Fiscal System ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Equity ; Poverty Reduction ; Urban Areas
    Abstract: This report relies on several data sources. The main source providing the poverty, inequality and labor figures herein is the 2019/20 Household Budget Survey (Inquerito sobre Orcamento Familiar, IOF2019/2020) conducted by the National Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, INE) starting in November 2019 and spanning 13 months. The survey's sample was drawn from the 2017 Census and allows for poverty figures to be representative at national and provincial as well as rural and urban levels. The fieldwork included data collection from 13,297 households interviewed across four quarters as in previous surveys, to account for seasonality effects like the impact on households' consumption of relatively more abundant post-harvest periods. The starting point for the analysis is chapter 1, which synthesizes progress in reducing poverty between 2014-15 and 2019-20. This chapter also looks at the regional distribution of poverty, the impact of the pandemic, multidimensional poverty, the profile of the poor, changes in the responsiveness of poverty to growth, discusses trends in non-monetary dimensions of wellbeing, and simulates future poverty trends. Chapter 2 examines the distribution of growth and inequality reduction over the period, the pandemic's impact, discusses the growth-poverty-inequality relationship, assesses the spatial dimensions of poverty, and estimates the Human Opportunity Index for Mozambique. Chapter 3 focuses on labor markets and provides insights into labor force participation, unemployment, underemployment, employment sectors, child labor, and labor market demand conditions. Chapter 4 presents a fiscal incidence analysis and information on transfers. Chapter 5 examines the relevance of environmental shocks, assesses the impact of weather events on agricultural production and night-time light radiance in urban areas. It also models poverty and distributional impacts of climate change shocks and presents findings on climate change literacy in Mozambique. Finally, chapter 6 discusses a variety of policy implications
    DOI: 10.1596/40106
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    Colombia Country Climate and Development Report (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Resilient Economy ; Environment ; Green Products ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net Zero GHG ; Transition
    Abstract: As Colombia navigates a complex path toward a richer and more equitable future, the country faces three critical climate transitions. First, it will need to transit from a climate-vulnerable to a more climate-resilient economy. Second, guided by its Long-Term Climate Strategy (LTS) and strong legal framework, which place it among the climate-goal leaders of the Latin America region, the country will need to navigate a transition to a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy in the context of its stated goal for 2050. Third, in a world that will demand increasingly less of Colombia's primary exports-oil and coal-and more green products, it will need to engineer a transition in its economic model. This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores the opportunities for, and challenges to, achieving Colombia's development goals and its ambitious climate commitments, as well as the complementarities between the two. It explores how climate change and climate action would affect the country's growth and development and, in turn, how growth and development challenges would affect the achievement of its climate ambitions. The CCDR also investigates complementarities-specifically, how climate action could help Colombia achieve its development objectives, capture opportunities, support a just and inclusive transition, and protect its economy against longer-term risks from climate change and from the world's transition toward net zero GHG emissions
    DOI: 10.1596/40056
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    Chad Economic Update - Special Chapter : Improving Resilience to Floods (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Disaster Risks ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Floods ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters ; Outlook ; Poverty Impact ; Resilience
    Abstract: This 2023 Economic Update for Chad is articulated in two chapters, plus a spotlight. The first chapter presents the recent economic and poverty developments as well as the outlook from 2023 to 2025. This chapter is followed by a summary of the macroeconomic-poverty impact analyses for Chad in the World Bank Sahel Country Climate and Development Report (2022). The second chapter offers a deep dive on Chad's disaster risk profile and the drivers that make floods an increasingly important threat to economic growth and provides policy options to reduce the impact of floods and improve resilience
    DOI: 10.1596/40053
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  • 92
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    Lebanon Economic Monitor - Spring 2023 : The Normalization of Crisis Is No Road for Stabilization (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Anti-Money Laundering ; Dollarization ; Financial Integrity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money Laundering ; Tax Invasion
    Abstract: The systemic failure of Lebanon's banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarized cash-based economy, worth an estimated USD 9.86 billion or 45.7 percent of GDP in 2022 (Special Focus: Gauging the Size of the Cash Economy in Lebanon). A pervasive and growing dollarized cash economy is a major impediment to Lebanon's economic recovery. It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality, and prompts further tax evasion. Moreover, the increasing reliance on cash transactions also threatens to completely reverse the progress that Lebanon made pre-crisis towards enhancing its financial integrity by instituting robust anti-money laundering mechanisms in its commercial banking sector
    DOI: 10.1596/40027
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 93
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    Fiscal Policy Effects on Poverty and Inequality in Cambodia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Karamba, Wendy Fiscal Policy Effects on Poverty and Inequality in Cambodia
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This study assesses the short-term impact of fiscal policy, and its individual elements, on poverty and inequality in Cambodia as of 2019. It applies the Commitment to Equity methodology to data from the Cambodia Socio-economic Survey of 2019/20 and fiscal administrative data from various government ministries, departments, and agencies for the assessment. The study presents among the first empirical evidence on the impact of taxes and social spending on households in Cambodia. The study finds that: (i) Cambodia's 2019 fiscal system reduces inequality by 0.95 Gini index points, with the largest reduction in inequality created by in-kind transfers from spending on primary education; (ii) while Cambodia's fiscal system reduces inequality, the degree of inequality reduction is small in international comparison; and (iii) low-income households pay more in indirect taxes than they receive in cash benefits in the short term to offset the burden. As a result, the number of poor and vulnerable individuals who, in the short term, experience net cash subtractions from their incomes is greater than the number of poor and vulnerable individuals who experience net additions. Fiscal policy can deliver more net benefits to poor and vulnerable households through expanding social assistance spending. Cambodia has embarked on this expansion during the coronavirus pandemic, bringing it closer in line with comparators
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10570
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  • 94
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    Corruption as a Push and Pull Factor of Migration Flows : Evidence from European Countries (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bernini, Andrea Corruption as a Push and Pull Factor of Migration Flows: Evidence from European Countries
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements ; Corruption ; Economic and Social Cost of Corruption ; Gravity Model ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Impact of Corruption ; Internal Migration ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Migration ; Remittances
    Abstract: Conclusive evidence on the relationship between corruption and migration has remained scant in the literature to date. Using data from 2008 to 2018 on bilateral migration flows across European Union and European Free Trade Association countries and four measures of corruption, this paper shows that corruption acts as both a push factor and a pull factor for migration patterns. Based on a gravity model, a one-unit increase in the corruption level in the origin country is associated with a 11 percent increase in out-migration. The same one-unit increase in the destination country is associated with a 10 percent decline in in-migration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10566
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  • 95
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    Savings Facilitation or Capital Injection? : Impacts and Spillovers of Livelihood Interventions in Post-Conflict Cate D'Ivoire (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Marguerie, Alicia Savings Facilitation or Capital Injection? Impacts and Spillovers of Livelihood Interventions in Post-Conflict Cate D'Ivoire
    Keywords: Cash Grant ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Inclusion ; Economic Investment and Savings ; Graduation Programs ; Livilihood Interventions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Post-Conflict Intervention ; Poverty ; Savings ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Transfers
    Abstract: Policy makers grapple with the optimal design of multidimensional strategies to improve poor households' livelihoods. To address financial constraints, are capital injections needed, or is savings mobilization sufficient This paper tests the direct effects and local spillovers of three instruments to relax financial constraints, each combined with micro-entrepreneurship training. "Cash grants" and "cash grants with repayment" directly inject capital, while "village savings and loan associations" (VSLAs) promote more efficient group saving. The randomized controlled trial took place in western regions of Cote d'Ivoire that were affected by a post-electoral crisis in 2011 and an earlier conflict. The interventions had differential effects on the dynamics of savings and productive asset accumulation. The cash grant modalities generated investments in startup capital, although nearly 30 percent of the grant was saved. In contrast, village savings and loan associations did not increase total savings but gradually induced investments, so that productive assets caught up with cash grant recipients after 15 months. Positive local spillovers on savings and independent activities were also observed. Yet, investments in independent activities were not sufficient to increase profits, possibly because they were limited due to high precautionary saving motives in the post-conflict study setting
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10563
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  • 96
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    Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Agriculture and Food Security ; Economic Shocks ; Economic Theory and Research ; Food Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning Advances ; Macroeconomic Monitoring ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10559
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  • 97
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    The Impact of Health Taxes in Armenia (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2203
    Keywords: Alcohol ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Health Taxes ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; High-Quality Health Care ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sugar-Sweetened Beverages ; Tax Revenue ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Tobacco ; Universal Health Coverage
    Abstract: This report has been prepared by the World Bank, at the request of the MoH, to support ongoing efforts to improve population health and revenue mobilization in the sector. The study estimates the health impacts of increasing taxation on SSBs, alcohol, and tobacco across gender and income-quintiles. The revenue potential of these taxes is also explored. The target audience for these findings includes senior policymakers and technical advisers in the MoH, Ministry of Economy, and Ministry of Finance (MoF). The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Chapter 2, the authors reviewthe current state of health and consumption taxes in Armenia. Chapter 3 outlines themethods used to estimate the change in tax revenue and consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and SSBs. Chapter 4 reports the analysis results, including the potentialadditional fiscal space and health gains. Finally, chapter 5 presents the conclusionsbased on the findings
    DOI: 10.1596/40345
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  • 98
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    Unlocking Blue Carbon Development : Investment Readiness Framework for Governments (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Blue Carbon ; Blue Economy ; Environment ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Private Investment ; Readiness Framework
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical framework to guide governments in catalyzing and scaling up public and private investment in Blue Carbon as part of their blue economy development. It does this by describing in detail a Blue Carbon Readiness Framework, a step-by-step, well-illustrated guide with simple checklists. Client countries can use the illustrations and checklists to determine their readiness to catalyze and scale up investment in blue carbon credit finance. The Blue Carbon Readiness Framework consists of three pillars: 1. Data and Analytics; 2. Policy and Institutions; 3. Finance
    DOI: 10.1596/40334
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  • 99
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    Seasonal Deprivation in the Sahel is Large, Widespread, and can be Anticipated (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Seasonal Deprivation in the Sahel is Large, Widespread, and can be Anticipated
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Economic Insecurity ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Rainfed Agriculture ; Seasonal Poverty VARIATION ; Seasonality ; Welfare
    Abstract: Shocks and seasonality may have profound effects on poor households' wellbeing, especially in contexts like the Sahel where livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Understanding how seasonal variation affects Sahelian households is therefore essential for guiding policies that jointly seek to address chronic poverty, seasonality, and unexpected shocks. This paper uses harmonized household survey data from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Senegal, collected in two distinct waves in 2018 and 2019, to examine the extent of seasonal deprivation in the Sahel. These data reveal significant seasonal variation in poverty and wellbeing. Mean real monetary consumption is around 10.5 percent lower in the lean season. Moreover, rather than representing a reduction in dietary diversity, this drop is concentrated in staple foods (especially cereals), implying that seasonality brings about extreme forms of deprivation. Welfare losses may begin early in the lean season, even as early as April. When the data were collected in 2018/19, the climatic conditions were relatively benign and the security situation was more stable than today, so the effects of seasonality shown in this paper likely represent a lower bound. On policy, although initiatives currently focus on responding to unpredictable shocks, seasonal food insecurity could be better tackled by expanding social protection and providing regular transfers early in the lean season, when prices are lower and fewer households have succumbed to extreme deprivation. Seasonal variation happens every year and more can be done to support Sahelian households if there is information on how it will perennially threaten their wellbeing
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10541
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  • 100
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    World Bank Support to Georgia, Fiscal Years 2014-23 : Country Program Evaluation (Approach Paper) (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Growth and Job Creation ; Inclusion and Equity ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resilience ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sustainability
    Abstract: The Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will seek to assess how well the Bank Group-supported strategy was aligned with Georgia's main development challenges and how effective the Bank Group's support was in addressing these challenges. The evaluation seeks to identify lessons that support the further adaptation and refinement of Bank Group engagement in support of the country's development priorities
    DOI: 10.1596/40171
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