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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9505
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Burns, Andrew Macroeconomic Modeling of Managing Hurricane Damage in the Caribbean: The Case of Jamaica
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Economic Modeling ; Disaster Risk Management ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes a modeling methodology that embeds climate damages from natural disasters and risk management strategies into a macroeconomic model for Jamaica. The modeled damages take the form of capital destruction, and the risk management strategies considered are (i) adaptation investment in hurricane resilient infrastructure, (ii) commercial disaster insurance for the government, (iii) the formation of a contingency fund, and (iv) lower debt via higher future primary balances to create fiscal space for disaster recovery. Different risk management strategies are compared to a baseline of no risk management. The model behavior is estimated empirically on country-specific data. Hurricane damage and the model results are analyzed in deterministic and probabilistic settings, using the historical distribution of damages for Jamaica
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8939
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Burns, Andrew Estimating and Calibrating MFMod: A Panel Data Approach to Identifying the Parameters of Data Poor Countries in the World Bank's Structural Macro Model
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the World Bank's approach to identifying parameters for key equations in its macro structural model for countries where short sample sizes or major structural changes render traditional time-series approaches infeasible or yield unstable estimates. To identify parameters that could be used in such cases, a cointegrating panel approach is followed that yields a common long-run estimate of parameters for key equations (to test the theoretical restrictions imposed in the model) and short-run disequilibrium estimates that vary by country. This approach is preferred to pure calibration or Bayesian estimation, because the functional forms imposed in the panel are consistent with those used in the macro structural model
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8965
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Burns, Andrew The World Bank Macro-Fiscal Model Technical Description
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper outlines the structure and economic foundation of the World Bank's macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod). MFMod consists of individual country models for 181 countries. The models are used by country economists within the World Bank's Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice to (i) generate country forecasts and (ii) simulate various policies. Each model has a similar structure and functional form, with variation reflecting data availability and economic specialization (notably for oil exporters). Although the functional forms are similar, the parameters are country specific and estimated at the country level. Forecasts across countries are live-linked, with the export market growth of each country calculated as a trade-weighted average of imports of each of its trading partners. Remittance inflows and outflows are balanced across countries through a similar mechanism. Other cross-country linkages come through the real effective exchange rate and export and import prices, which are a function of world commodity prices and local cost considerations
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Sampi, James Identification Properties for Estimating the Impact of Regulation on Markups and Productivity
    Abstract: This paper addresses several shortcomings in the productivity and markup estimation literature. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, the analysis shows that the methods in Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2015) and De Loecker and Warzynski (2012) produce biased estimates of the impact of policy variables on markups and productivity. This bias stems from endogeneity due to the following: (1) the functional form of the production function; (2) the omission of demand shifters; (3) the absence of price information; (4) the violation of the Markov process for productivity; and (5) misspecification when marginal costs are excluded in the estimation. The paper addresses these concerns using a quasi-maximum likelihood approach and a generalized estimator for the production function. It produces unbiased estimates of the impact of regulation on markups and productivity. The paper therefore proposes a work-around solution for the identification problem identified in Bond, Hashemi, Kaplan and Zoch (2020), and an unbiased measure of productivity, by directly accounting for the joint impact of regulation on markups and productivity
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8712
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amra, Rashaad When the Cycle Becomes the Trend: The Emerging Market Experience with Fiscal Policy During the Last Commodity Super Cycle
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fiscal buffers have shrunk across the world. This paper argues that limited fiscal room in emerging market economies today is partly due to the commodity super cycle of 2000-15. The super cycle created the mirage that economic performance had structurally improved, mistaking a long, commodity-fueled uptick in the business cycle for higher trend growth. This thinking supported fiscal expansions. When the commodity boom ended, it became apparent that countries had saved less than they should have, and that fiscal policy had, perhaps inadvertently, been pro-cyclical. It left countries with depleted fiscal buffers and large budgets when the cycle came to an end, limiting room for fiscal stimulus when needed. The paper illustrates the argument with reference to the South African experience
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8990
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kikoni, Edith Fiscal Rules for the Western Balkans
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Policy toward fiscal rules is an important issue in the countries of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia). According to a rough estimate, the countries with rules (all but North Macedonia) have complied with their debt and overall-deficit rules a little more than half the time. An online survey, conducted for this paper, suggests that public understanding of the rules is limited, which may reduce the political pressure for compliance. To get debt down to prudent levels, Albania and Montenegro will need a strong commitment to complying with their fiscal rules and will often have to do more than their deficit rules require. The following principles should guide future policy toward fiscal rules: more emphasis should be given to ensuring that fiscal rules are widely understood and enjoy the support of a broad range of stakeholders; policy toward the rules should be consistent with accession to the European Union, but the rules should be simpler than the European Union's and the debt limits lower; limits in rules should not be mistaken for targets; and public financial management should be improved to support the implementation of rules
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9247
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Sampi, James Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19: An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper proposes a leading indicator, the "Google Mobility Index," for nowcasting monthly industrial production growth rates in selected economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The index is constructed using the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report database via a Kalman filter. The Google database is publicly available starting from February 15, 2020. The paper uses a backcasting methodology to increase the historical number of observations and then augments a lag of one week in the mobility data with other high-frequency data (air quality) over January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Finally, mixed data sampling regression is implemented for nowcasting industrial production growth rates. The Google Mobility Index is a good predictor of industrial production. The results suggest a significant decline in output of between 5 and 7 percent for March and April, respectively, while indicating a trough in output in mid-April
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dappe, Matias Herrera How Does Port Efficiency Affect Maritime Transport Costs and Trade? Evidence from Indian and Western Pacific Ocean Countries
    Abstract: Would improvements in port performance increase trade in countries on the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans? Previous studies attempted to answer this question using ad hoc measures of port efficiency that do not control for the actual use of port assets or measures that can be very noisy. To avoid these problems, this paper builds a measure of economic efficiency based on the use of port inputs to deliver port output. Using data envelop analysis, it ranks countries on the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans in terms of their port efficiency, and assesses the effect of increased efficiency. It finds that becoming as efficient as the country with the most efficient port sector would reduce their average maritime transport costs by up to 14 percent and increase their exports by up to 2.2 percent
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions: A Modeling Framework
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation Investment ; Decarbonization ; Fossil Fuel Transformation ; Macroeconomic Modeling ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net-Zero Emissions Economy ; Social Development ; Technological Change
    Abstract: Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Turkiye's objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Turkiye's economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (116 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Burns, Andrew Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy: A Case Study for Pakistan
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Carbon Pricing ; Climate Change ; Climate Change and Environment ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Economic Modeling ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, the design and implementation of climate-aware policies have assumed a more central role in the macroeconomic policy debate. With this has come an increasing recognition of the importance of introducing climate into the economic policy making tools used by central economic policy making agencies (such as ministries of finance and ministries of planning). This paper integrates climate outcomes into a macro-structural model for Pakistan, the kind of model that is suitable for use on a regular basis by ministry staff. The model includes the standard set of variables and economic logic that are necessary for the kinds of forecasting, economic policy, and budgetary planning analysis typically conducted by central ministries. In addition to standard outputs (unemployment, inflation, gross domestic product growth, and fiscal and current accounts), the model generates climate outcomes (tons of carbon emitted and economic and health damages due to higher temperatures and pollution). These outcomes are generated when specific climate policies such as mitigation are analyzed, but also when other policies are analyzed that might have unanticipated climate impacts. The paper describes the changes made to the World Bank's standard macro structural model, MFMod, in integrated climate outcomes, climate policies, and the economic impacts of climate on Pakistan's economy. Notably, carbon-tax scenarios show that a USD 20 carbon tax can reduce emissions in Pakistan by 36 percent by 2050. Gross domestic product impacts could also be positive, if the revenues from the carbon tax were used to reduce reliance on heavily distorting taxes. The model also quantifies associated co-benefits from reduced local air pollution and better health and productivity outcomes. In the absence of action to restrain climate change, the model suggests that increased temperatures and rain variability could reduce output by as much as 10 percent compared with a scenario where global temperature rises were minimized
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