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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (37)
  • Bayreuth UB
  • Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice  (37)
  • Graue Literatur  (37)
  • Migration
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (37)
  • Bayreuth UB
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8712
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amra, Rashaad When the Cycle Becomes the Trend: The Emerging Market Experience with Fiscal Policy During the Last Commodity Super Cycle
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fiscal buffers have shrunk across the world. This paper argues that limited fiscal room in emerging market economies today is partly due to the commodity super cycle of 2000-15. The super cycle created the mirage that economic performance had structurally improved, mistaking a long, commodity-fueled uptick in the business cycle for higher trend growth. This thinking supported fiscal expansions. When the commodity boom ended, it became apparent that countries had saved less than they should have, and that fiscal policy had, perhaps inadvertently, been pro-cyclical. It left countries with depleted fiscal buffers and large budgets when the cycle came to an end, limiting room for fiscal stimulus when needed. The paper illustrates the argument with reference to the South African experience
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8731
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kabir, Mahfuz The Textile-Clothing Value Chain in India and Bangladesh: How Appropriate Policies Can Promote (or Inhibit) Trade and Investment
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: There are significant value chain linkages between India and Bangladesh, particularly in the textile and apparel sector. India specializes in the upstream segment, supplying such intermediate inputs as silk, cotton, yarn, and fabrics to Bangladesh. Bangladesh specializes in the downstream final apparel segment, exporting worldwide as well as to India. Tariffs and nontariff barriers in both countries inhibit the growth of value chain linkages. In addition, subsidies and other industrial policies in India distort incentives away from the natural pattern of specialization. The results of a new survey of textile and clothing firms in both countries corroborate these findings. Reforms in trade policy (including rules of origin), trade facilitation, trade-related standards, and institutions could help both countries better take advantage of value chain linkages
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8761
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs, disinflation occurred across all regions. This paper presents a summary of a recent book, 'Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies', that analyzes this remarkable achievement. The findings suggest that many EMDEs enjoy the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies. In EMDEs that do not operate inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate movements tend to have larger and more persistent effects on inflation
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8785
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, Ayhan Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8814
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Maliszewska, Maryla The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economic integration and development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non-Belt and Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize gains from the Belt and Road Initiative-induced trade cost declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures 82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative could contribute to lifting 8.7 million people from extreme poverty and 34 million from moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8942
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dadam, Vincent Why South Africa is Cheap for the Rich and Expensive for the Poor
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates cross-sectoral productivity differentials in South African industry and their distributional consequences. The analysis shows that typically, traded sectors have experienced low productivity growth over the past decade, while skill intensive service sectors have had significant productivity growth. This is the inverse of the traditional Balassa-Samuelson sectoral transformation hypothesis, where high wages in high-productivity traded sectors increase wages throughout the economy, thus increasing prices on non-traded goods and revaluing the country's real exchange rate. Instead, the higher productivity of non-traded sectors experienced in South Africa induces a devaluation of the real exchange rate and a contraction of the traded sectors. The results of the estimation show evidence of this "inverse" Balassa-Samuelson effect for agriculture and manufacturing and in particular mining. This "inverse" Balassa-Samuelson effect has important distributional consequences: the high-productivity sectors are associated with cheaper goods and services for wealthy households. This in turn burdens poor households, which are more dependent on traded goods, with higher prices, which are a consequence of low productivity and high markups
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8706
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iootty, Mariana Assessing Innovation Patterns and Constraints in Developing East Asia: An Introductory Analysis
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on key innovation patterns and constraints within a selected set of developing East Asian countries (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). It follows a comprehensive approach about national innovation systems while highlighting the supply and demand dimensions of innovation as well as the markets where firms make accumulation decisions for different forms of capital (knowledge capital, human capital. and physical capital). The paper presents a set of empirical exercises drawing from various data sets. The results corroborate the idea of the importance of adopting a broad view of innovation policy and investing in missing complementary factors. Although investment in research and development is key to boost innovation, it is also crucial to have business and regulatory environments that are conducive to overall firm performance and capital accumulation (not only knowledge capital), as they are expected to improve innovation returns. In addition, the results suggest that other innovation inputs aside from research and development matter for innovation activities, such as training for innovative activities, acquisition/licensing of technology, and managerial practices
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8714
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Schiffbauer, Marc Tobias Enforcing Competition and Firm Productivity: Evidence from 1,800 Peruvian Municipalities
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a unique data set that captures the elimination of subnational regulatory barriers to firm entry and competition across 1,800 municipalities and matches it with establishment census panel data to estimate the impact on establishment productivity and markups. The elimination of local barriers that were inconsistent with national legislation was the result of legal reforms that strengthened the mandate of Peru's competition authority. Legislative changes in 2013/14 empowered the competition authority to enforce the elimination of illegal, sector-specific subnational regulatory barriers to firm entry and competition, conditional on the existence of a precedence. The changes provide a unique quasi-experimental setting to identify the impact of enforcing competition within the controlled institutional environment of a single country. The paper finds that the elimination of subnational barriers to entry boosted the (revenue) productivity of establishments operating in reform municipalities and sectors relative to establishments in nonreform municipalities/sectors. But it did not raise the establishments' markups, which, if anything, declined, suggesting that physical productivity improved. The paper provides a wide range of evidence supporting a causal interpretation of this finding. The results suggest that strengthening the mandate of institutions enforcing competition is critical to raise productivity
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 240 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8718
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Losos, Elizabeth Claire Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative, due to its diverse and extensive infrastructure investments, poses a wide range of environmental risks. Some projects have easily identifiable and measurable impacts, such as energy projects' greenhouse gas emissions. Others, such as transportation infrastructure, due to their vast geographic reach, generate more complex and potentially more extensive environmental risks. The proposed Belt and Road Initiative rail and road investments have stimulated concerns because of the history of significant negative environmental impacts from large-scale transportation projects across the globe. This paper studies environmental risks-direct and indirect-from Belt and Road Initiative transportation projects and the mitigation strategies and policies to address them. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how to take advantage of the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative to address these concerns in a way not typically available to stand-alone projects. In short, this scale motivates and permits early integrated development and conservation planning
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8738
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the past four to five decades, inflation has fallen around the world, with median annual global consumer price inflation down from a peak of 16.6 percent in 1974 to 2.6 percent in 2017. This decline began in advanced economies in the mid-1980s and in emerging market and developing economies in the mid-1990s. By 2000, global inflation had stabilized at historically low levels. Lower inflation has been accompanied by reduced inflation volatility, especially in advanced economies. This improvement in inflation outcomes has stemmed in large part from structural economic changes, including improved monetary and fiscal policy frameworks as well as international trade and financial liberalization. Lower and more stable inflation has often been associated with better growth and development outcomes, partly by reducing uncertainty, fostering a more efficient allocation of resources, and helping preserve financial stability
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8809
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Youssef, Hoda From Currency Depreciation to Trade Reform: How to Take Egyptian Exports to New Levels?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Arab Republic of Egypt is yet to meet its exports potential, which has been historically hampered by several domestic market distortions and multiple barriers, resulting in weak export performance and modest regional and global integration. Although the liberalization of the exchange rate in November 2016 was a necessary step to correct the exchange rate misalignment and ease the ensuing shortages in foreign currency, it has not been sufficient to guarantee a notable improvement in export performance. This paper analyzes Egypt's exports along three dimensions that are key for export performance and future growth: (i) composition and relatedness of exported products; (ii) geographic and product concentration; and (iii) relatedness to globally traded products. The analysis suggests that Egypt continues to specialize in traditional areas of comparative advantage and limited value-added or is expanding toward products for which global demand is declining. The paper uses a gravity model to predict bilateral trade flows based on the economic size, geographic distance, and other relevant characteristics that should typically contribute to facilitated trade and identify specific sectors and markets for which Egypt seems to have an untapped potential. To understand this underperformance, the paper investigates the key impediments to meeting the export potential. It explores some of the important supply and demand side factors and assesses the role of trade policy measures (tariffs and non-tariffs barriers) in impeding export growth. The analysis reveals that despite significant liberalization efforts, Egypt remains among the group of developing countries that have the highest frequency index and coverage ratio of non-tariff measures. Policy recommendations include a call to improve external competitiveness by fostering and diversifying domestic production and complement these efforts by engaging in trade facilitation reforms to remove the non-tariffs barriers to trade, notably, the administrative, technical, and sanitary barriers to trade. These are all necessary for the country to capitalize on its competitive gains from the currency depreciation and to improve the degree of Egypt's integration into global markets
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8885
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Das, Abhiman Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India's GQ Highway Network
    Keywords: Autobahn ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Infrastrukturinvestition ; Infrastrukturfinanzierung ; Finanzmarkt ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Indien ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses the construction of India's Golden Quadrangle central highway network, together with comprehensive loan data from the Reserve Bank of India, to investigate the interaction between infrastructure development and financial sector depth. The paper identifies a disproportionate increase in loan count and average loan size in districts along the Golden Quadrangle highway network, using stringent specifications with industry and district fixed effects. The results hold in straight-line instrumental variable frameworks and are not present in placebo tests with another highway that was planned to be upgraded at the same time as Golden Quadrangle but subsequently delayed. Importantly, however, the results are concentrated in districts with stronger initial financial development, suggesting that although financing responds to large infrastructure investments and helps spur real economic outcomes, initial financial sector development might play an important role in determining where real activity will grow
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 87 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8957
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Munoz, Ercio Are Budget Rigidities a Source of Fiscal Distress and a Constraint for Fiscal Consolidation?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper studies whether budget rigidities affect the probability of countries getting into fiscal distress and reduce the likelihood of governments performing fiscal adjustments. Budget rigidities are constraints that limit the ability of the government to change the size and structure of the public budget in the short term. Budget rigidities stem from different institutional arrangements and therefore can take different forms. To build an indicator of rigid spending that is comparable across a large set of countries, this paper employs a simple definition based on budget components that are naturally inflexible: the sum of public wages, pensions, and debt service. It decomposes this measure into a structural component and a nonstructural component. Then, the paper applies a linear probability model to a panel of 182 advanced and developing countries. A key finding is that relatively high shares of rigid (observed) components of public spending contribute to countries getting into fiscal distress and are a constraint for fiscal consolidation. The paper finds evidence that a relatively high share of nonstructural rigid spending contributes to the probability of fiscal distress and reduces the probability of fiscal consolidation. Moreover, the effect of rigid expenditure seems to be more relevant for economies with high inequality, governments with lower margins of majority, and countries with lower institutional quality. In addition, when looking at the composition of the measure of rigid expenditure, there is also some evidence that higher expenditure on pensions reduces the probability of fiscal adjustment more robustly than higher expenditure on wages
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  • 14
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8961
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Herrera, Santiago What Determines the Size of Public Employment? An Empirical Investigation
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper explores the determinants of public employment across the world and finds that it is negatively associated with country size (by population) and positively associated with the income level. The findings show that a country's openness to trade is positively associated with public employment in low- and middle-income countries, but inversely related in high-income countries. The estimated models are used to predict the expected public employment for a country given its income, population, and openness to trade, and to compare the actual levels with the predicted ones. In general, public employment in Latin American countries is below the predicted levels, except for Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela. Public employment in the Middle East and North Africa is above the predicted levels, particularly in the Arab Republic of Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran. East Asian and Pacific countries' public employment is significantly below the predicted levels, particularly in Hong Kong SAR, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Mongolia. Countries in Europe and Central Asia show higher than predicted public employment, mostly in Romania, Denmark, Sweden, Armenia, and Belorussia. Public employment in Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be below the predicted levels, with the notable exceptions of Botswana and South Africa. The deviations from predicted levels are positively correlated with the union density rate, which is negatively associated with private employment rates. Finally, the study finds no statistical association between public and private employment, suggesting the absence of crowding-out in the employment levels
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8694
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baniya, Suprabha Trade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countries potentially involved. The initiative consists of several infrastructure investment projects to improve the land and maritime transportation in the Belt and Road Initiative region. The analysis first uses geo-referenced data and geographical information system analysis to compute the bilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Then, it estimates the effect of improvement in bilateral time to trade on bilateral export values and trade patterns, using a gravity model and a comparative advantage model. Finally, the analysis combines the estimates from the regression analysis with the results of the geographical information system analysis to quantify the potential trade effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper finds that (i) the Belt and Road Initiative increases trade flows among participating countries by up to 4.1 percent; (ii) these effects would be three times as large on average if trade reforms complemented the upgrading in transport infrastructure; and (iii) products that use time sensitive inputs and countries that are highly exposed to the new infrastructure and integrated in global value chains have larger trade gains
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8699
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Geiger, Michael Understanding Economic Growth in Ghana in Comparative Perspective
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ghana has experienced a decade of solid and exceptionally high growth. Between 2005 and 2015, income nearly doubled. This paper analyzes the factors driving this impressive growth performance, using tools such as structural change decompositions and growth regressions. For the comparative perspective, the paper compares Ghana with its structural and aspirational peers. The paper finds that the contribution of structural change to growth has been limited and attributes this to labor that was freed up in agriculture not being absorbed by high-productivity sectors. Looking at factors that drove growth since 2000, financial development and infrastructure had the most important impacts. A benchmark analysis suggests that those areas should remain the policy focus over the longer term, but that near-term priority should be given to stabilization policies
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8755
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Boffa, Mauro Integration and Price Transmission in Key Food Commodity Markets in India
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper examines patterns of market integration for food commodities in India. First, it tests the extent of domestic spatial market integration for retail and wholesale markets in 2006-14 and 2008-15, respectively, and looks at patterns of price transmission of shocks from international sources. Second, it measures vertical integration from wholesale to retail markets and tests for asymmetric speed of adjustment to shocks. Third, it examines the determinants of spatial integration. The results reveal that in India, food markets are imperfectly integrated across space, with the law of one price being systematically rejected, with heterogeneities across states and products. There is substantial co-movement between wholesale and retail prices, although integration is still imperfect in all commodities but one: rice, for which perfect vertical integration cannot be rejected. Retail prices adjust faster when wholesale prices rise than when wholesale prices fall. The analysis of the determinants of spatial integration reveals that prior to implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, the mere act of crossing a state border increased prices; unexploited gains from arbitrage persisted after considering the effects of transport costs; and information frictions and menu costs reduced market integration
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8768
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Global Inflation Synchronization
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. The authors' methodology allows them to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. The paper reports three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8780
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The degree to which domestic prices adjust to exchange rate movements is key to understanding inflation dynamics, and hence to guiding monetary policy. However, the exchange rate pass-through to inflation varies considerably across countries and over time. By estimating structural factor-augmented vector-autoregressive models for 47 countries, this paper brings to light two fundamental factors accounting for these variations: the nature of the shock triggering currency movements and country-specific characteristics. The empirical results in this paper are three-fold. First, an empirical investigation demonstrates that different domestic and global shocks can be associated with widely different pass-through ratios. Second, country characteristics matter, including policy frameworks that govern monetary policy responses, as well as other structural features that affect an economy's sensitivity to currency fluctuations. Pass-through ratios tend to be lower in countries that combine flexible exchange rate regimes and credible inflation targets. Finally, the empirical results suggest that central bank independence can greatly facilitate the task of stabilizing inflation following large currency movements and allows fuller use of the exchange rate as a buffer against external shocks
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8784
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The fiscal position can affect fiscal multipliers through two channels. Through the Ricardian channel, households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments when fiscal stimulus is implemented from a weak fiscal position. Through the interest rate channel, fiscal stimulus from a weak fiscal position heightens investors' concerns about sovereign credit risk, raises economy-wide borrowing cost, and reduces private domestic demand. The paper documents empirically the relevance of these two channels using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model. It finds that fiscal multipliers tend to be smaller when fiscal positions are weak than strong
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  • 21
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    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8823
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brenton, Paul Food Prices, Access to Markets and Child Undernutrition in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper looks at how changing food prices affect child undernutrition in Ethiopia. It derives height for age (stunting) and weight for height (wasting) as indicators of child undernutrition from the two most recent years of the Livings Standards Measurement Survey and utilizes market prices for key cereals, teff, wheat, and maize at the zone level across all regions of the country. Using a panel data fixed effects model, the analysis finds that, contrary to previous studies, rising crop prices are positively associated with improved child stunting rates for children between ages 6 months and 5 years, while the results for wasting are not conclusive. These results suggest that across the board policy interventions that seek to suppress cereal price increases may have adverse effects on poverty reduction in the long term by undermining potentially positive impacts on child nutrition
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8861
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Maliszewska, Maryla Small African Economies in a More Uncertain Global Trade Environment: The Potential Impact of Post-AGOA Scenarios for Lesotho
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides a forward-looking view of trade and its relevance for Lesotho's medium- and long-term development. It does this through computable general equilibrium analysis of potential impacts based on specific trade-related scenarios. The scenarios include the potential loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences and preference erosion against competitors through, for example, a United States-Vietnam Free Trade Area. An immediate loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences would have a significant economic impact that far exceeds that of a potential future United States-Vietnam Free Trade Area. If these preferences were suspended in 2018, Lesotho would face a loss of 1 percent in income by 2020, relative to the baseline, and exports of textiles and apparel would drop by 16 percent. The computable general equilibrium simulations stress the need to strengthen efforts to support structural transformation leading to diversification of export products and markets, improving backward and forward linkages, and lowering trade costs. The simulations also indicate that trade facilitation measures leading to an average decrease in trade costs of 2 percent per year would eliminate the negative consequences of the loss of American Growth and Opportunities Act preferences in terms of the loss of income. The changing external environment is likely to offer new opportunities to Lesotho's export industries in the medium term, including through regional integration under the Continental Free Trade Area
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8891
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bandiera, Luca A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries that are located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors in the absence of comprehensive and consistent information on investments and financing terms. Key assumptions relate to the amount of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing and its terms, the size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and the expected impact of growth in the medium and long term of that investment. BRI debt financing is expected significantly increase PPG debt in a number of countries. The paper provides estimates for both the medium and the long term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of BRI investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is not entirely realized. In this initial phase, around one-third of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated to face elevated debt vulnerabilities post- BRI, several of which have already high debt vulnerabilities. The impact of BRI on public debt would improve over the longer term under the assumption of a sustained negative interest rate-growth differential and in the absence of the materialization of BRI related fiscal risks. Still, debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain higher in one-third of countries (11 out of 30 with available data)
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8934
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Inflation in Low-Income Countries
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of global and domestic inflation shocks on core price inflation in 105 countries between 1970 and 2016, by using a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregressive model. The methodology allows accounting for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies, emerging markets and developing economies, and low-income countries) and across groups with different country characteristics (such as foreign exchange and monetary policy regimes). The empirical results indicate that most of the variation in inflation among low-income countries over the past decades is accounted for by external shocks. More than half of the variation in core inflation rates among low-income countries is due to global core price shocks, compared with one-eighth in advanced economies. Global food and energy price shocks account for another 13 percent of core inflation variation in low-income countries-half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in emerging markets and developing economies. This points to challenges in anchoring domestic inflation expectations, which have been most evident among low-income countries with floating exchange rates, especially in cases where central bank independence has been weak
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8939
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Burns, Andrew Estimating and Calibrating MFMod: A Panel Data Approach to Identifying the Parameters of Data Poor Countries in the World Bank's Structural Macro Model
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the World Bank's approach to identifying parameters for key equations in its macro structural model for countries where short sample sizes or major structural changes render traditional time-series approaches infeasible or yield unstable estimates. To identify parameters that could be used in such cases, a cointegrating panel approach is followed that yields a common long-run estimate of parameters for key equations (to test the theoretical restrictions imposed in the model) and short-run disequilibrium estimates that vary by country. This approach is preferred to pure calibration or Bayesian estimation, because the functional forms imposed in the panel are consistent with those used in the macro structural model
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8963
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Herrera, Santiago Why Some Countries Can Escape the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap and Others Cannot?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the procyclicality of fiscal policy on the tax and spending sides in a sample of 116 developing countries between 2000 and 2016. About 20 percent of the countries in the sample switched from procyclical to countercyclical policy stance. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 30 of 39 countries remained caught in the procyclicality trap and the region has the highest degree of procyclicality. The Middle East and North Africa region switched from a countercyclical policy stance to a procyclical one over time. The Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean regions significantly reduced the degree of procyclicality. The main economic variables that affect procyclicality are financial depth, tax base variability, and natural resource dependence. In line with the political economy literature, the perception of corruption, social fragmentation, and inequality in resource distribution are positively associated with procyclicality. The findings also show that the quality of fiscal institutions is associated with procyclicality; countries with fiscal rules have smaller procyclical bias, but the effect is not homogeneous; and higher degrees of expenditure rigidity are associated with lower procyclical bias. The study finds asymmetric policy stances along the business cycle, with procyclicality being more pronounced during recessions. Similarly, the political cycle affects procyclicality, as procyclical bias increases in electoral years. From the tax management perspective, procyclical bias is still present, but there are significant changes: most of the political economy variables lose significance; the resource-dependence variable is not significant; external credit availability reduces procyclicality; tax base variability increases procyclical bias; and expenditure rigidity is no longer significant, but fiscal space becomes determinant of procyclical bias
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8965
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Burns, Andrew The World Bank Macro-Fiscal Model Technical Description
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper outlines the structure and economic foundation of the World Bank's macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod). MFMod consists of individual country models for 181 countries. The models are used by country economists within the World Bank's Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice to (i) generate country forecasts and (ii) simulate various policies. Each model has a similar structure and functional form, with variation reflecting data availability and economic specialization (notably for oil exporters). Although the functional forms are similar, the parameters are country specific and estimated at the country level. Forecasts across countries are live-linked, with the export market growth of each country calculated as a trade-weighted average of imports of each of its trading partners. Remittance inflows and outflows are balanced across countries through a similar mechanism. Other cross-country linkages come through the real effective exchange rate and export and import prices, which are a function of world commodity prices and local cost considerations
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8968
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kouame, Wilfried Trust to Pay? Tax Morale and Trust in Africa
    Keywords: Steuermoral ; Steuervermeidung ; Vertrauen ; Algerien ; Ghana ; Marokko ; Nigeria ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Although low tax morale hits developing countries hardest, little is known about its determinants in those countries. This paper examines the impact of trust in public institutions and the neighborhood on individual tax morale in four African countries: Algeria, Ghana, Morocco, and Nigeria. First, the paper provides theoretical foundations of such a relationship. Further, the paper uses the World Value Survey to estimate the effects of trust in public institutions and the neighborhood on individual tax morale. The identification strategy employs the instrumental variables method and relies on historical data on the slave trade and the literature on the cultural heritage of trust. The paper finds that trust in public institutions and the neighborhood are largely associated with tax morale in the African countries under consideration. The findings are robust to an alternative identification strategy, additional controls, and a falsification test
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8724
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Laborde, David Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the event of large swings in world food prices, countries often intervene to dampen the impact of international food price spikes on domestic prices and to lessen the burden of adjustment on vulnerable population groups. While individual countries can succeed at insulating their domestic markets from short-term fluctuations in global food prices, the collective intervention of many countries may exacerbate the volatility of world prices. Insulating policies introduced during the 2010-11 food price spike may have accounted for 40 percent of the increase in the world price of wheat and one-quarter of the increase in the world price of maize. Combined with government policy responses, the 2010-11 food price spike tipped 8.3 million people (nearly 1 percent of the world's poor) into poverty
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8794
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Essl, Sebastian Michael Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries have increased substantially in recent years. Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20 percentage points of gross domestic product and increasingly comes from non-concessional and private sources. As a result, in most low-income countries, interest payments are absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues. The majority of low-income countries would be hard hit by a sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space, low foreign currency reserves, and undiversified exports. A proactive effort to identify and reduce debt-related vulnerabilities is a priority for many low-income countries. Policy makers should focus on mobilizing domestic resources, improving debt transparency, and strengthening debt management practices. These efforts should be complemented by measures to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve the efficiency of public expenditures and public investment management, and develop domestic financial systems
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8868
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Haile, Fiseha The Exchange Rate: Why it Matters for Structural Transformation and Growth in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ethiopia has achieved sustained high growth for more than a decade. At the same time, the country has been facing several economic challenges, including falling exports, chronic foreign currency shortages, as well as a slow pace of structural transformation. In recent years, the already overvalued birr has appreciated sharply in real terms, partly driven by the appreciation of the dollar, thereby making Ethiopia's competitiveness and industrialization drive more difficult. In response to these challenges, this paper looks at the question of why the real exchange rate is a useful policy instrument. The analysis suggests that Ethiopia needs a more flexible exchange rate policy. A competitive or undervalued exchange rate is important in bringing about productivity-enhancing structural change. There is robust evidence that a real devaluation stimulates exports in general and manufacturing exports in particular, improves the trade and current account balances, and spurs economic growth. Currency undervaluation is a second-best policy intervention that can help offset some of the key constraints to manufacturing growth prevalent in low-income countries and speed up structural transformation. However, exchange rate adjustments need to take into account the increase in the cost of capital imports and debt burden
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8884
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bombarda, Pamela Diagonal Cumulation and Sourcing Decisions
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Products must fulfill predetermined rules of origin to be exported under the preferential access granted by a free trade area member. In turn, rules of cumulation establish which countries' inputs qualify when computing the extent of origin of a product. Recent literature shows that restrictive rules of origin affect sourcing decision by reducing imports of intermediate goods from third countries relative to free trade area partners. This paper uses the introduction of the Pan-European Cumulation System in 1997 to explore the effects of rules of cumulation on trade in intermediate goods. The system provided the European Union Free Trade Area's peripheral partners ("spokes") the possibility of cumulating stages of production from more countries to qualify for preferential access to the European Union market. Therefore, the system might have altered the organization of production in European Union centric value chains. The paper estimates a triple difference-in-differences specification and exploits different control groups. The results show that the effects of rules of cumulation on trade in intermediates are larger, with the stricter rules of origin applied to the related final good. When switching from bilateral to diagonal cumulation, the analysis finds a reduction in spokes' imports of intermediates from the rest of the world relative to those from spoke, reinforcing value chain connections within the cumulation zone. The analysis also finds a reduction in spokes' imports from the European Union 15 relative to the rest of the world and the Spokes. The findings suggest that the Pan-European Cumulation System allowed a reassessment of sourcing decisions: thanks to the possibility to cumulate, peripheral countries re-organized global value chain links
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  • 33
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8893
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Samreth, Sovannroeun Dollarization Dilemma: Price Stability at the Cost of External Competitiveness in Cambodia
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Cambodia has recorded both rapid economic growth and macroeconomic stability in recent decades despite (or thanks to) high levels of dollarization. Previous studies on dollarization in Cambodia have largely focused on examining its causes and estimating seigniorage losses. As an attempt to further explore the effects of dollarization in Cambodia, this paper examines its impact on the competitiveness of the export sector. The main results, based on a vector autoregression estimation of quarterly data over 1994Q4-2016Q4, indicate that a positive US interest rate shock has a negative impact on Cambodia's trade balance with the European Union, its main trading partner, as it leads to appreciation of the US dollar. Furthermore, this shock also leads to a significant decrease in Cambodia's international reserve levels during the first two quarters following the shock. The surrendering of monetary and exchange rate independence seems to affect the competitiveness of the tradable sector negatively as well as exacerbate financial sector vulnerability to solvency and liquidity risks
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8646
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hollweg, Claire H GVC Participation And Deep Integration In Brazil
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The production of export goods has become increasingly unbundled, and countries positioning to become more integrated in the global economy are increasingly looking toward global value chains. This paper uses the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/World Trade Organization's Trade in Value Added Database to assess Brazil's current integration in global value chains. It uses a structural gravity model estimated with parts and components to analyze the scope for Brazil to increase global value chain-related trade. One avenue to raise participation in global value chains is through (deeper) preferential trade agreements, and to this end the paper characterizes the level of integration of Brazil's current preferential trade agreements. Brazil has witnessed high growth in total domestic value added embodied in gross exports since 1995, yet it exhibits lower international engagement in global value chains, but tends to be stronger as a seller than a buyer. Most of the participation on the selling side comes from indirect linkages with domestic input sectors, and services sectors have been important for growing the indirect value added in global value chain-oriented exports. A deep integration agenda focusing not only on border measures, but also on beyond-the-border measures, would help Brazil to maximize the benefits from participation in global value chains. Other than its natural partners, Brazil should integrate with countries where global value chains are taking place. New agreements signed by Brazil and Mercosur with other regional members such as the Pacific Alliance should also take into consideration provisions such as investment, competition policy, and intellectual property rights, which are demonstrated to be very important for integration in global value chains
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8675
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 36
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8661
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8687
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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