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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Right-to-work? : assessing India's employment guarantee scheme in Bihar (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464801303
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Equity and development
    DDC: 331.01/10954123
    Keywords: Guaranteed annual income ; Manpower policy, Rural ; Right to labor ; Unemployment ; Guaranteed annual income ; Manpower policy, Rural ; Right to labor ; Unemployment ; Guaranteed annual income ; Manpower policy, Rural ; Right to labor ; Unemployment
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0130-3
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Accelerating Health Reforms through Collective Action : Experiences from East Africa (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464802881
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (140 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Bank Studies
    Abstract: This publication briefly describes the processes and methodologies for building and sustaining multistakeholder coalition to drive reforms in the health sector. It is based on the experiences of three East African countries -- Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya. It outlines, by chapter, each country's experience in identifying, mobilizing, and coalescing key stakeholders to address governance bottlenecks in pharmaceutical procurement and supply chain management. It highlights challenges, successes as well as lessons learned to guide other countries
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0287-4
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015 : Ending Poverty and Sharing Prosperity (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464803376
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (240 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Global Monitoring Report
    Abstract: The Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015: Ending Poverty and Sharing Prosperity was written jointly by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund, with substantive inputs from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This year's report details, for the first time, progress toward the WBG's twin goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity and assesses the state of policies and institutions that are important for achieving them. The report continues to monitor progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Also for the first time, the report includes information about high-income countries. It finds that while gaps in living standards have been closing in many countries, the well-being of households in the bottom 40 percent, as measured by the non-income MDGs such as access to education and health services, remains below that of households in the top 60 percent. The focus of this year's report is on three elements needed to make growth more inclusive and sustainable: investment in human capital that favors the poor, the best use of safety nets, and steps to ensure the environmental sustainability of economic growth. These three elements are imperative to all countries' development strategies, and are also fundamental to global efforts to achieve the twin goals, the MDGs, and the Sustainable Development Goals that will succeed the MDGs. Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015 was prepared in collaboration with regional development banks and other multilateral partners
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0336-9
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Health Financing in the Republic of Gabon (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464802904
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (152 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Bank Studies
    Abstract: Gabon is an upper middle income country, with reasonable spending on health, however, its health outcomes resemble that of a country that is low / low-middle income. Where has Gabon gone wrong, and what are the challenges that Gabon is facing in improving health outcomes? Gabon is an emerging economy, while it has achieved high economic development it still has not achieved living standards and health outcomes seen in upper middle income countries. Gabon faces low life expectancy (63 years), levels as seen in other low income countries. It is in an early stage of an epidemiological transition. Fertility rates remain high, and mortality rates are starting to decline. It has a high burden from communicable diseases. While HIV incidence and tuberculosis incidence has started to show positive results, Malaria incidence continues to remain high. There are cost-effective interventions available to prevent many of the communicable diseases the country faces. These interventions require multi-sector approaches, behavioral change programs, outreach services, community development, and a primary health care focus
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0289-8
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Corporate governance of state-owned enterprises : a guide for practitioners (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464802225
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    DDC: 352.2/66
    Keywords: Corporate governance ; Government business enterprises ; Government ownership ; Corporate governance ; Government business enterprises ; Government ownership ; Corporate governance ; Government business enterprises ; Government ownership
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0222-5
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Tapering Talk : The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eichengreen, Barry Tapering Talk
    Abstract: In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6754
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Measuring the Impact of Debt-Financed Public Investment (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cavalcanti, Carlos B Measuring the Impact of Debt-Financed Public Investment
    Abstract: While debt-financed productive public investment raises a country's debt ratios in the short run, it can also generate higher growth, revenues, and exports, leading over time to lower debt ratios. This paper develops a framework to assess whether countries meet the conditions for realizing the net benefits over the costs of public investment debt financing. While it is possible to achieve debt sustainability with an appropriate mix of concessional and non-concessional financing, this is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It is also important to ensure the operational viability of public investment projects by having in place adequate project management: (i) project screening and appraisal, (ii) a clear connection between capital and recurrent expenditures once the projects are launched, and (iii) safeguards for appropriate project implementation and facilities operations. To illustrate the strength of these results, the paper carries out three measurement exercises: (a) a simulation of the degree to which the ratio of optimal public investment responds to changes in key parameters related to project management in a general equilibrium model; (b) application of the public investment management (PIMa) index to benchmark a country's public investment management capacity; and (c) presentation of the results of the Investment, Savings, and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities tool aimed at tracking country choices in public finance and the impact of public projects on private investments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6766
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    International Interventions to Build Social Capital : Evidence from a Field Experiment in Sudan (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Avdeenko, Alexandra International Interventions to Build Social Capital
    Abstract: Over the past decade the international community, especially the World Bank, has conducted programs to increase local public service delivery in developing countries by improving local governing institutions and creating social capital. This paper evaluates one such program in Sudan to answer the question: Can the international community change the grassroots civic culture of developing countries to increase social capital? The paper offers three contributions. First, it uses lab-in-the-field measures to focus on the effects of the program on pro-social preferences without the confounding influence of any program- induced changes on local governing institutions. Second, it tests whether the program led to denser social networks in recipient communities. Based on these two measures, the effect of the program was a precisely estimated zero. However, in a retrospective survey, respondents from program communities characterized their behavior as being more pro-social and their communities more socially cohesive. This leads to a third contribution of the paper: it provides evidence for the hypothesis, stated by several scholars in the literature, that retrospective survey measures of social capital over biased evidence of a positive effect of these programs. Regardless of one's faith in retrospective self-reported survey measures, the results clearly point to zero impact of the program on pro-social preferences and social network density. Therefore, if the increase in self-reported behaviors is accurate, it must be because of social sanctions that enforce compliance with pro-social norms through mechanisms other than the social networks that were measured
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6772
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance : Risks and Opportunities (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gelb, Alan Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance
    Abstract: Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource-exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilization. Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically. This paper proposes some basic elements of a conceptual framework to create a system of checks and balances to help ensure that the sovereign wealth funds do not undermine macroeconomic management or become a vehicle for politically driven "investments." First, the risks and opportunities of domestic investment by sovereign wealth funds are analyzed. Central issues are the relationship of sovereign wealth fund financing to the budget process and to the procurement systems of sector ministries, as well as the establishment of appropriate benchmarks and safeguards to ensure the integrity of investment decisions. The paper argues that a well-governed sovereign wealth fund, with a sound mandate and professional management and staffing, can possibly improve the quality of the public investment program. But its mandate should not duplicate that of other government institutions with investment mandates, such as the budget, the national development bank, the investment authority, and state-owned enterprises. Establishing rules on the type of investment (for example, commercial and/or quasi-commercial) and its modalities (for example, no controlling stakes, leveraging private investment) is one way to ensure separation between the activities of the sovereign wealth fund and those of other institutions. The critical issue remains that of limiting the sovereign wealth fund's investment scope to that appropriate for a wealth fund. If investments that generate quasi-market returns are permitted, the size of the home bias should be clearly stipulated and these investments should be reported separately
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6776
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Nonfarm Participation : Evidence from Rwanda (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ali, Daniel Ayalew Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Nonfarm Participation
    Abstract: Although the potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually, empirical evidence for Africa remains limited. This study uses a direct elicitation approach for a national sample of Rwandan rural households to assess empirically the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi-formal sector and its impact using an endogenous sample separation between credit-constrained and unconstrained households. Being credit constrained reduces the likelihood of participating in off-farm self-employment activities by about 6.3 percent while making participation in low-return farm wage labor more likely. Even within agriculture, elimination of all types of credit constraints in the semi-formal sector could increase output by some 17 percent. Two suggestions for policy emerge from the findings. First, the estimates suggest that access to information (education, listening to the radio, and membership in a farm cooperative) has a major impact on reducing the incidence of credit constraints in the semi-formal credit sector. Expanding access to information in rural areas thus seems to be one of the most promising strategies to improve credit access in the short term. Second, making it easy to identify land owners and transfer land could also significantly reduce transaction costs associated with credit access
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6769
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Does Migration Foster Exports? : Evidence from Africa (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ehrhart, Hélène Does Migration Foster Exports?
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the impact of migration on export performance and more particularly the effect of African migrants on African trade. Relying on a new data set on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, the authors estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with endogeneity. The results first indicate that the pro-trade effect of migration is higher for African countries, a finding that can be partly explained by the substitution between migrants and institutions (the existence of migrant networks compensating for weak contract enforcement, for instance). This positive association is particularly important for the exports of differentiated products, suggesting that migrants also play an important role in reducing information costs. Moreover, focusing on intra-African trade, the pro-trade effect of African migrants is larger when migrants are established in a more geographically and ethnically distant country. All these findings highlight the ability of African migrants to help overcome some of the main barriers to African trade: the weakness of institutions, information costs, cultural differences, and lack of trust
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6739
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of Export Destinations on Firm Performance (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cebeci, Tolga Impact of Export Destinations on Firm Performance
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the role of export destinations on productivity, employment, and wages of Turkish firms by comparing the performance of firms that export to low-income destinations and high-income destinations with firms that do not export. A combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods are employed on a rich set of firm observables, including sector, region, employment, total factor productivity (TFP), capital intensity, wages, support from government, ownership, and the research and development intensity of firms. Four sets of findings emerge from the analysis: i) Export entry has a positive causal effect on firm TFP and employment and this effect is strengthened as a firm continues to export. ii) In contrast, export entry has a moderate wage effect that emerges only with a lag. iii) Unlike exporting to high-income destinations, exporting to low-income destinations does not result in significantly higher firm TFP and wages. iv) The employment effect of exporting to low-income destinations is comparable to that of exporting to high-income destinations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6743
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sanitation and Externalities : Evidence from Early Childhood Health in Rural India (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andres, Luis A Sanitation and Externalities
    Abstract: This paper estimates two sources of benefits related to sanitation infrastructure access on early childhood health: a direct benefit a household receives when moving from open to fixed-point defecation or from unimproved sanitation to improved sanitation, and an external benefit (externality) produced by the neighborhood's access to sanitation infrastructure. The paper uses a sample of children under 48 months in rural areas of India from the Third Round of District Level Household Survey 2007-08 and finds evidence of positive and significant direct benefits and concave positive external effects for both improved sanitation and fixed-point defecation. There is a 47 percent reduction in diarrhea prevalence between children living in a household without access to improved sanitation in a village without coverage of improved sanitation and children living in a household with access to improved sanitation in a village with complete coverage. One-fourth of this benefit is due to the direct benefit leaving the rest to external gains. Finally, all the benefits from eliminating open defecation come from improved sanitation and not other sanitation solutions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6737
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bundervoet, Tom What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?
    Abstract: Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings show that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move toward non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6741
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable? : A Meta-Analysis of the Literature (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Miller, Margaret Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable?
    Abstract: This paper presents a systematic and comprehensive meta-analysis of the literature on financial education interventions. The analysis focuses on financial education studies designed to strengthen the financial knowledge and behaviors of consumers. The analysis identifies 188 papers and articles that present impact results of interventions designed to increase consumers' financial knowledge (financial literacy) or skills, attitudes, and behaviors (financial capability). These papers are diverse across a number of dimensions, including objectives of the program intervention, expected outcomes, intensity and duration of the intervention, delivery channel used, and type of population targeted. However, there are a few key outcome indicators where a subset of papers are comparable, including those that address savings behavior, defaults on loans, and financial skills, such as record keeping. The results from the meta analysis indicate that financial literacy and capability interventions can have a positive impact in some areas (increasing savings and promoting financial skills such as record keeping) but not in others (credit default)
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6745
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Engineers, Innovative Capacity and Development in the Americas (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Maloney, William F Engineers, Innovative Capacity and Development in the Americas
    Keywords: Innovation ; Ingenieure ; Innovationsdiffusion ; Humankapital ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Entwicklung ; Wirtschaftsgeschichte ; Vergleich ; Lateinamerika ; Nordamerika
    Abstract: Using newly collected national and sub-national data, and historical case studies, this paper argues that differences in innovative capacity, captured by the density of engineers at the dawn of the Second Industrial Revolution, are important to explaining present income differences, and, in particular, the poor performance of Latin America relative to North America. This remains the case after controlling for literacy, other higher order human capital, such as lawyers, as well as demand side elements that might be confounded with engineering. The analysis then finds that agglomeration, certain geographical fundamentals, and extractive institutions such as slavery affect innovative capacity. However, a large effect associated with being a Spanish colony remains suggesting important inherited factors
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6814
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  • 17
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    Growing through Cities in Developing Countries (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Duranton, Gilles Growing through Cities in Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of urbanization on development and growth. It begins with a labor market perspective and emphasizes the importance of agglomeration economies, both static and dynamic. It then argues that more productive jobs in cities do not exist in a void and underscores the importance of job and firm dynamics. In turn, these dynamics are shaped by the broader characteristics of urban systems. A number of conclusions are drawn. First, agglomeration effects are quantitatively important and pervasive. Second, the productive advantage of large cities is constantly eroded and must be sustained by new job creation and innovation. Third, this process of creative destruction in cities, which is fundamental for aggregate growth, is determined in part by the characteristics of urban systems and broader institutional features. The paper highlights important differences between developing countries and more advanced economies. A major challenge for developing countries is to reinforce the role of their urban systems as drivers of economic growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6818
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  • 18
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    Urbanization and the Geography of Development (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Henderson, J. Vernon Urbanization and the Geography of Development
    Abstract: This paper focuses on three interrelated questions on urbanization and the geography of development. First, although we herald cities with their industrial bases as “engines of growth,” does industrialization in fact drive urbanization? While such relationships appear in the data, the process is not straightforward. Among developing countries, changes in income or industrialization correlate only weakly with changes in urbanization. This suggests that policy and institutional factors may also influence the urbanization process. In fact, the relationship between industrialization and urbanization is absent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, do development policies have a big-city bias and, if so, what does this imply for growth and inequality? Intelligent public infrastructure investment inevitably involves picking winners. One hopes that such choices are based on market indicators, such as where industry is starting to agglomerate and where there are clear needs. Yet governments seem to favor the biggest cities which in turn draw firms and migrants to these cities. To try to avoid excessive in-migration and oversized, congested cities, favored cities might adopt policies that make living conditions for migrants more unpleasant. This can result in increased inequality and social tension. Finally, the paper examines city sizes and city-size distributions. Factors determining both aspects are complex and poorly understood. It is hard to be proscriptive about either individual city sizes or overall city-size distributions. The best policies strengthen institutions in the relevant markets so that market forces can move the economy toward better outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6877
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  • 19
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    Cash Transfers and Child Labor (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Hoop, Jacobus Cash Transfers and Child Labor
    Abstract: Cash transfer programs are widely used in settings where child labor is prevalent. Although many of these programs are explicitly implemented to improve children's welfare, in theory their impact on child labor is undetermined. This paper systematically reviews the empirical evidence on the impact of cash transfers, conditional and unconditional, on child labor. The authors find no evidence that cash transfer interventions increase child labor in practice. On the contrary, there is broad evidence that conditional and unconditional cash transfers lower both children's participation in child labor and hours worked and cushion the effect of economic shocks that may lead households to use child labor as a coping strategy. Boys experience particularly strong decreases in economic activities, girls in household chores. The findings underline the usefulness of cash transfers as a relatively safe policy instrument to improve child welfare, but also point to knowledge gaps, for instance regarding the interplay between cash transfers and other interventions, that should be addressed in future evaluations to provide detailed policy advice
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6826
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  • 20
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    Informal Economy and the World Bank (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Benjamin, Nancy Informal Economy and the World Bank
    Abstract: Many countries have expressed an interest in the size, performance and motivation of the informal sector, especially where the informal sector provides the livelihood and employment for a critical segment of the population. This essay reviews recent literature, methodologies, and relevant Bank studies as a way to share information with country teams interested in expanding their knowledge of the informal sector and related policy debates. Research in a number of regions points to four main areas where development policy can be improved by taking the informal sector into account. First, improvements should be made along a continuum; the heterogeneity among informal firms points to different policy approaches for different types of firms. Second, there should be public-private collaboration on mutual reforms. Many efforts to improve firm performance focus on elements of the production function (labor skills, credit) while treating government mainly as a cost (taxes, cost of compliance with regulations). Yet research reveals that many characteristics of the public regime strongly influence the decisions of firms regarding informality. Third, research indicates a strong relation between basic skills and labor outcomes, particularly in the informal sector, despite the sector's lower average returns. Research also indicates the benefits of targeted training programs. Business services programs have a decidedly mixed record, yet ongoing research is refining results on what works best. Fourth, informal trade is pervasive in developing countries and the networks developed in informal trade-wholesalers, credit suppliers and money-changers, transporters-are a strong presence in the informal sector. Yet these kinds of complex and nontransparent trading systems can be discouraging to foreign investors and can otherwise undermine trade policy and the international competitiveness of developing countries. The paper concludes with recommendations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6888
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  • 21
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    Surges and Stops in FDI Flows to Developing Countries : Does the Mode of Entry Make a Difference? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Burger, Martijn J Surges and Stops in FDI Flows to Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment "surges" and "stops," defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers and acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the only factor significantly associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while decline in global economic growth and a surge in the preceding year are the only predictors of a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income and resource-rich countries than elsewhere. Global growth, financial openness, and domestic economic and financial instability enable mergers and acquisitions-led surges. These results differ from those in the literature on surges and stops and are particularly relevant in countries where foreign direct investments dominate capital flows
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6771
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  • 22
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    Learning from Financial Crises (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lim, Jamus Jerome Learning from Financial Crises
    Abstract: This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6838
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  • 23
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    Immigrant versus Natives? : Displacement and Job Creation (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (65 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Özden, Çaglar Immigrant versus Natives?
    Abstract: The impact of immigration on native workers is driven by two countervailing forces: the degree of substitutability between natives and immigrants, and the increased demand for native workers as immigrants reduce the cost of production and output expands. The literature so far has focused on the former substitution effect, while ignoring the latter scale effect. This paper estimates both of these effects using labor force survey data from Malaysia (1990-2010), a country uniquely suited for understanding the impact of low-skilled immigration. The instrumental variable estimates imply that the elasticity of labor demand (3.4) is greater than the elasticity of substitution between natives and immigrants (2.5). On average the scale effect outweighs the substitution effect. For every ten additional immigrants, employment of native workers increases by 4.1 in a local labor market. These large reallocation effects are accompanied by negligible relative wage changes. At the national level, a 10 percent increase in immigrants, equivalent to 1 percent increase in labor force, has a small positive effect on native wages (0.14 percent). The impact of immigration is highly heterogeneous for natives with different levels of education, resulting in substantial changes in skill premiums and hence inequality. Immigrants on net displace natives with at most primary education; while primarily benefiting those with a little more education, lower secondary or completed secondary education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6900
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  • 24
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    Child Labor and Learning (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Emerson, Patrick M Child Labor and Learning
    Keywords: Schüler ; Kinderarbeit ; Mikrodaten ; Lernen ; Panel ; Brasilien
    Abstract: This paper uses a unique micro panel dataset of Brazilian students to investigate the impact of working while in school on learning outcomes. The potential endogeneity is addressed through the use of difference-in-difference and instrumental variable estimators. A negative effect of working on learning outcomes in math and Portuguese is found. The effects of child work range from 3 to 8 percent of a standard deviation decline in test score, which represents a loss of about a quarter to a half of a year of learning on average
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6904
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  • 25
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    The Price of Empowerment : Experimental Evidence on Land Titling in Tanzania (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ali, Daniel Ayalew The Price of Empowerment
    Keywords: Bodenreform ; Bodenrecht ; Geschlecht ; Feldforschung ; Tansania
    Abstract: This paper reports on a randomized field experiment that uses price incentives to address economic and gender inequality in land tenure formalization. During the 1990s and 2000s, nearly two dozen African countries proposed de jure land reforms extending access to formal, freehold land tenure to millions of poor households. Many of these reforms stalled. Titled land remains the de facto preserve of wealthy households and, within households, men. Beginning in 2010, the study tested whether price instruments alone can generate greater inclusion by offering formal titles to residents of a low-income, unplanned settlement in Dar es Salaam at a range of subsidized prices, as well as additional price incentives to include women as owners or co-owners of household land. Estimated price elasticities of demand confirm that prices-rather than other implementation failures or features of the titling regime-are a key obstacle to broader inclusion in the land registry, and that some degree of pro-poor price discrimination is justified even from a narrow budgetary perspective. In terms of gender inequality, the study finds that even small price incentives for female co-titling achieve almost complete gender parity in land ownership with no reduction in demand
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6908
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  • 26
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    Technical Measures to Trade in Central America : Incidence, Price Effects, and Consumer Welfare (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kelleher, Sinéad Technical Measures to Trade in Central America
    Abstract: Despite the widespread tariff reductions sparked by the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement, borders in the region remain thick, with many hurdles standing in the way of regional trade. Although anecdotal evidence suggests that nontariff measures raise trade costs and inhibit trade in the region, little is known about the magnitude of these economic effects. This paper uses a newly collected data set to quantify the incidence of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade in the region and benchmarks it with other parts of the world. The results indicate that the Central American region has the lowest prevalence of technical nontariff measures in the world. However, there is significant heterogeneity of trade-related regulations in Central America; for instance, 48 percent of Salvadoran imports are subject to at least one nontariff measure, compared with just 16 percent of Honduran imports. The paper estimates the impact of these technical measures on border prices and finds that the price impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures is equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 11.6 percent. This price-rising effect is further investigated by looking in detail at the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on the prices of beef, chicken meat, bread, and dairy products in Guatemala. The impact is estimated to be equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 68.4 percent, 51.4 percent, 22.0 percent, and 5.0 percent, respectively. The paper shows that efforts to streamline key sanitary and phytosanitary measures affecting these products by, for example, reducing the cost and time required to obtain sanitary registries, would likely reduce the Guatemalan urban extreme poverty rate from 5.07 percent to 4.91 percent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6857
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  • 27
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    Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dinar, Shlomi Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation
    Abstract: Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6916
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  • 28
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    Informal Firms and Financial Inclusion : Status and Determinants (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Farazi, Subika Informal Firms and Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: Many firms in the developing world-including a majority of micro, small, and medium enterprises-operate in the informal economy. The informal firms face a variety of constraints, making it harder for them to do business and grow. Lack of access to finance is often cited as the biggest operational constraint these firms face. This paper documents the use of finance and financing patterns of informal firms, highlights differences between use of finance by formal and informal firms, and identifies the most significant characteristics of informal firms that are associated with higher use of financial services. The analysis shows that use of loans and bank accounts for business by informal firms is very low and a vast majority finances their day-to-day operations and investments through sources other than financial institutions (internal funds, moneylenders, family, and friends). A majority of informal firm owners would like their firms to become formal but do not do so as it would require them to pay taxes. Registered firms are 54 percent more likely to have a bank account and 32 percent more likely to have loans. Results also show that firm size, the level of education of the owner, and whether the owner has a job in the formal sector are significantly associated with financial inclusion of informal firms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6778
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  • 29
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    50 Years of Urbanization in Africa : Examining the Role of Climate Change (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Henderson, J. Vernon 50 Years of Urbanization in Africa
    Abstract: This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6925
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  • 30
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    Assessing Energy Price Induced Improvements in Efficiency of Capital in OECD Manufacturing Industries (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Assessing Energy Price Induced Improvements in Efficiency of Capital in OECD Manufacturing Industries
    Abstract: To assess how capital stocks adapt to energy price changes, it is necessary to account for the impacts on different vintages of capital and to account separately for price-induced and autonomous improvements in the energy efficiency of capital stock. The results of econometric analysis for five manufacturing industries in 19 OECD countries between 1990 and 2005 indicate that higher energy prices resulted in smaller energy use due to both improved energy efficiency of capital stock and reduced demand for the energy input. The investment response to energy prices varied considerably across manufacturing industries, being more significant in energy-intensive sectors. The results of policy simulations indicate that a carbon tax can deliver significant reductions in energy consumption in the medium run with modest declines in energy-using capital stock
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6929
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  • 31
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    Population Pressures, Migration, and the Returns to Human Capital and Land : Insights from Indonesia (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Liu, Yanyan Population Pressures, Migration, and the Returns to Human Capital and Land
    Abstract: Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, this paper examines the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes. The analysis uses panel data from Indonesia combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and nonfarm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia, the paper finds that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. On the one hand, the effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia's more successful rural development experiences
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6790
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  • 32
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    The Impact of Early Childhood Education on Early Achievement Gaps : Evidence from the Indonesia Early Childhood Education and Development (ECED) Project (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jung, Haeil The Impact of Early Childhood Education on Early Achievement Gaps
    Abstract: This paper assesses whether the Indonesia Early Childhood Education and Development project had an impact on early achievement gaps as measured by an array of child development outcomes and enrollment. The analysis is based on longitudinal data collected in 2009 and 2010 on approximately 3,000 four-year-old children residing in 310 villages located in nine districts across Indonesia. The study begins by documenting the intent-to-treat impact of the project. It then compares the achievement gaps between richer and poorer children living in project villages with those of richer and poorer children living in non-project villages. There is clear evidence that in project villages, the achievement gap between richer and poorer children decreased on many dimensions. By contrast, in non-project villages, this gap either increased or stayed constant. Given Indonesia's interest in increasing access to early childhood services for all children, and the need to ensure more efficient spending on education, the paper discusses how three existing policies and programs could be leveraged to ensure that Indonesia's vision for holistic, integrated early childhood services becomes a reality. The lessons from Indonesia's experience apply more broadly to countries seeking to reduce early achievement gaps and expand access to pre-primary education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6794
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  • 33
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    Culture, Politics, and Development (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woolcock, Michael Culture, Politics, and Development
    Abstract: Whether in the domains of scholarship or practice, important advances have been made in recent years in our understanding of how culture, politics, and development interact. Today's leading theorists of culture and development represent a fourth distinctive perspective vis-à-vis their predecessors, one that seeks to provide an empirically grounded, mechanisms-based account of how symbols, frames, identities, and narratives are deployed as part of a broader repertoire of cultural "tools" connecting structure and agency. A central virtue of this approach is less the broad policy prescriptions to which it gives rise-indeed, to offer such prescriptions would be something of a contradiction in terms-than the emphasis it places on making intensive and extensive commitments to engaging with the idiosyncrasies of local contexts. Deep knowledge of contextual realities can contribute constructively to development policy by enabling careful intra-country comparisons to be made of the conditions under which variable responses to otherwise similar problems emerge. Such knowledge is also important for discerning the generalizability (or "external validity") of claims regarding the efficacy of development interventions, especially those overtly engaging with social, legal, and political issues
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6939
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  • 34
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    Does Institutional Finance Matter for Agriculture? : Evidence Using Panel Data from Uganda (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khandker, Shahidur R Does Institutional Finance Matter for Agriculture?
    Abstract: Smallholder agriculture in many developing countries has remained largely self-financed. However, improved productivity for attaining greater food security requires better access to institutional credit. Past efforts to extend institutional credit to smaller farmers has failed for several reasons, including subsidized operation of government-aided credit schemes. Thus, recent efforts to expand credit for smallholder agriculture that rely on innovative credit delivery schemes at market prices have received much policy interest. However, thus far the impacts of these efforts are not fully understood. This study examines credit for smallholder agriculture in the context of Uganda, where agriculture is about 35 percent of gross domestic product, most farmers are smallholders, and the country has introduced policies since 2005 to extend credit access to the sector. The analysis uses newly available household panel data from Uganda for 2005-2006 and 2009-2010 to examine (a) whether credit effectively targets agriculture, by examining determinants of borrowing across different sources; (b) agricultural and nonagricultural determinants of supply and demand credit constraints among non-borrowers; and (c) the effects of borrowing and credit constraints on household income, consumption, and agricultural outcomes. The analysis finds that although not many households report borrowing specifically for agriculture, credit is fungible and agricultural outcomes do substantially improve with institutional borrowing, particularly microcredit. Among non-borrowers, supply and demand credit constraints have fallen considerably over the period, particularly in rural areas. Access to institutions and infrastructure play a strong role in alleviating the negative effect of credit constraints on welfare outcomes, as well as determining the source of lending among borrowing households
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6942
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  • 35
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    Institutional Arrangements for the Promotion of Regional Integration of Electricity Markets : International Experience (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Oseni, Musiliu O Institutional Arrangements for the Promotion of Regional Integration of Electricity Markets
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the institutional arrangements needed for facilitating regional electricity cooperation. The paper begins by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. It then discusses two sets of case studies. The first set focuses on three regional developing country power pools-the Southern African Power Pool, the West African Power Pool, and the Central American Power Market. The second set focuses on three regional power pools in more developed countries-one in the United States, the Single Electricity Market in Ireland, and the South East Europe market. These cases highlight the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence presented, key lessons are drawn in the areas of preconditions for trading, necessary institutional arrangements, practicalities of timetabling, reasons to be hopeful about future prospects, and suggestions for future research
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6947
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  • 36
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    Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps" (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Golub, Alexander Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps
    Abstract: This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6951
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  • 37
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    Contracting for the Second Best in Dysfunctional Electricity Markets (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nikandrova, Arina Contracting for the Second Best in Dysfunctional Electricity Markets
    Abstract: Power pools constitute a set of sometimes complex institutional arrangements for efficiency-enhancing coordination among power systems. Where such institutional arrangements do not exist, there still can be scope for voluntary electricity-sharing agreements among power systems. This paper uses a particular type of efficient risk-sharing model with limited commitment to demonstrate that second-best coordination improvements can be achieved with low to moderate risks of participants leaving the agreement. In the absence of an impartial market operator who can observe fluctuations in connected power systems, establishing quasi-markets for trading excess electricity through the kind of mechanism described here helps achieve sustainable cooperation in mutually beneficial electricity sharing
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6955
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  • 38
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    The Environmental Implications of Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (152 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Böhringer, Christoph The Environmental Implications of Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Abstract: This report investigates the environmental impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. A 10-region, 30-sector model of the Russian economy is developed. The model is innovative and more accurate empirically in that it contains foreign direct investment, imperfectly competitive sectors, and endogenous productivity effects triggered by World Trade Organization accession along with environmental emissions data in Russia for seven pollutants that are tracked for all 30 sectors in each of the 10 regions. The decomposition analysis shows that despite the fact that World Trade Organization accession allows Russia to import better technologies and reduce pollution from the “technique effect,” on balance World Trade Organization accession alone will increase environmental pollution in Russia through a shift toward dirty industries (the “composition effect”) and the expansion of output with its associated increase in pollution (“scale effect”). The paper assesses the costs of three types of environmental regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent. The paper simultaneously implements a central case scenario with each of the carbon dioxide emission reduction policy initiatives. The analysis finds that the welfare gains of World Trade Organization accession are large enough to pay for the costs of any of the three environmental abatement policies, while leaving a net welfare gain. But the political economy implications are that the non-market-based policies are more costly and the command and control policy, which is not well targeted, is very costly. Based on a constant returns to scale model, the estimated welfare gains are insufficient to finance the costs of environmental regulation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6957
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  • 39
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    Women's Empowerment and Socio-Economic Outcomes : Impacts of the Andhra Pradesh Rural Poverty Reduction Program (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Prennushi, G Women's Empowerment and Socio-Economic Outcomes
    Abstract: The paper explores whether one of the largest programs in the world for women's empowerment and rural livelihoods, the Indira Kranti Patham in Andhra Pradesh, India, has had an impact on the economic and social wellbeing of households that participate in the program. The analysis usespanel data for 4,250 households from two rounds of a survey conducted in 2004 and 2008 in five districts. Propensity score matching was used to construct control groups and outcomes are compared with differences-in-differences. There are two major impacts. First, the Indira Kranti Patham program increased participants' access to loans, which allowed them to accumulate some assets (livestock and durables for the poorest and nonfarm assets for the poor), invest in education, and increase total expenditures (for the poorest and poor). Women who participated in the program had more freedom to go places and were less afraid to disagree with their husbands; the women participated more in village meetings and their children were slightly more likely to attend school. Consistent with the emphasis of the program on the poor, the impacts were stronger across the board for the poorest and poor participants and were more pronounced for long-term Scheduled Tribe participants. No significant differences are found between participants and nonparticipants in some maternal and child health indicators. Second, program participants were significantly more likely to benefit from various targeted government programs, most important the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, but also midday meals in schools, hostels, and housing programs. This was an important way in which the program contributed to the improved wellbeing of program participants. The effects captured by the analysis accrue to program participants over and above those that may accrue to all households in program villages
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6841
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  • 40
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    Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Nicola, Francesca Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6845
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  • 41
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    Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? : Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time?
    Abstract: The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6849
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  • 42
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    Managing Quantity, Quality, and Timing in Indian Cane Sugar Production : Ex Post Marketing Permits or Ex Ante Production Contracts? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Patlolla, Sandhyarani Managing Quantity, Quality, and Timing in Indian Cane Sugar Production
    Abstract: Private sugar processors in Andhra Pradesh, India use an unusual form of vertical coordination. They issue 'permits' to selected cane growers a few weeks before harvest. These permits specify the amount of cane to be delivered during a narrow time period. This article investigates why processors create uncertainty among farmers using ex post permits instead of ex ante production contracts. The theoretical model predicts that ex post permits are more profitable than ex ante contracts or the spot market under existing government regulations in the sugar sector, which include a binding price floor for cane and the designation of a reserve area for each processor wherein it has a legal monopsony for cane. The use of ex post permits creates competition among farmers to increase cane quality, which increases processor profits and farmer costs. Empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that farmers operating in private factory areas have higher unit production costs than do their counterparts who patronize cooperatives
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6975
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  • 43
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    Trade Flows and Trade Disputes (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P Trade Flows and Trade Disputes
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new data set and establishes a set of basic facts and patterns regarding the trade that countries fight about under World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paper characterizes the scope of products, as well as the levels of and changes to the trade values, market shares, volumes, and prices for those goods that eventually become subject to WTO litigation. The first result is striking heterogeneity in the level of market access at stake across disputes: for example, 14 percent of cases over disputed import products feature bilateral trade that is less than
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6979
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  • 44
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    Economic Development and Female Labor Participation in the Middle East and North Africa : A Test of the U-Shape Hypothesis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Verme, Paolo Economic Development and Female Labor Participation in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa region is known for having low female labor market participation rates as compared with its level of economic development. A possible explanation is that these countries find themselves at the turning point of the U-shape hypothesis when countries transition from declining to rising female participation rates. This paper tests the U-shape hypothesis in countries in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the region has outperformed other world regions in terms of the main drivers of the U-shape hypothesis, including gross domestic product per capita, economic transformation away from the agricultural sector, female education, and fertility rates. These facts are consistent with nonparametric evidence that shows countries in the region are distributed over a U-shaped curve. However, parametric tests of the hypothesis point in a different direction. The region shows an inverted U-shape overall and great heterogeneity across countries and age cohorts that defies any law on the relation between gross domestic product and female participation rate. The explanation behind these findings may be economic and cultural. Jobless growth and the lack of growth in employment sectors such as manufacturing and services, which proved critical for female employment in other countries, weaken labor demand and strengthen the role of institutions that may discourage female participation, such as marriage, legislation, and gender norms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6927
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  • 45
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    Does Involvement of Local NGOs Enhance Public Service Delivery? : Cautionary Evidence from a Malaria-Prevention Evaluation in India (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Das, Ashis Does Involvement of Local NGOs Enhance Public Service Delivery?
    Abstract: Using data from an experimental supportive intervention to India's malaria control program, this paper studies the impact of leveraging local non-state capacity to promote mosquito net usage and recommended fever care-seeking patterns. The supportive activities were conducted simultaneously by three nongovernmental organizations in two endemic districts in the state of Orissa. The study finds that program impact varied significantly by location. Examining three potential sources of this variation (differential population characteristics, differential health worker characteristics, and differential implementer characteristics), the analysis provides evidence that both population and nongovernmental organization characteristics significantly affected the success of the program. The paper discusses these findings as they relate to the external validity of development policy evaluations and, specifically, for the ability of the health system to benefit from limited non-state capacity in under-resourced areas
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6931
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  • 46
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    Income Inequality and Violent Crime : Evidence from Mexico's Drug War (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Enamorado, Ted Income Inequality and Violent Crime
    Abstract: The relationship between income inequality and crime has attracted the interest of many researchers, but little convincing evidence exists on the causal effect of inequality on crime in developing countries. This paper estimates this effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis takes advantage of a unique data set containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities covering a period of 20 years. Using an instrumental variable for inequality that tackles problems of reverse causality and omitted variable bias, this paper finds that an increment of one point in the Gini coefficient translates into an increase of more than 10 drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants between 2006 and 2010. There are no significant effects before 2005. The fact that the effect was found during Mexico's Drug War and not before is likely because the cost of crime decreased with the proliferation of gangs (facilitating access to knowledge and logistics, lowering the marginal cost of criminal behavior), which, combined with rising inequality, increased the expected net benefit from criminal acts after 2005
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6935
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  • 47
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    Aid is Good for the Poor (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hirano, Yumeka Aid is Good for the Poor
    Abstract: Aid is good for the poor. This paper uses detailed aid data spanning 60 developing countries over the past two decades to show that social aid significantly and directly benefits the poorest in society, while economic aid increases the income of the poor through growth. This new and unequivocal finding distinguishes the current study from past studies that only utilized aggregate aid data and returned ambiguous results. The paper also confirms that none of the elements of globalization (trade, foreign direct investment, remittances), policies (government expenditure, inflation management), institutional quality, nor other plausibly pro-poor factors have systematic effects on the poor or any other income group, beyond their effects on average incomes. The paper finds that trade and foreign direct investment tend to benefit the richest segments of society more than other income groups. Therefore, the presented evidence suggests that aid can play a crucial role in enabling the poor to benefit more from globalization. These discoveries underscore the need to assist developing countries to find the mix of economic and social aid that jointly promotes the participation of the poor in the development process under globalization. In this manner, aid can make greater strides in spurring development
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6998
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  • 48
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    Transition to Clean Capital, Irreversible Investment and Stranded Assets (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rozenberg, Julie Transition to Clean Capital, Irreversible Investment and Stranded Assets
    Abstract: This paper uses a Ramsey model with two types of capital to analyze the optimal transition to clean capital when polluting investment is irreversible. The cost of climate mitigation decomposes as a technical cost of using clean instead of polluting capital and a transition cost from the irreversibility of pre-existing polluting capital. With a carbon price, the transition cost can be limited by underutilizing polluting capital, at the expense of a loss in the value of polluting assets (stranded assets) and a drop in income. In contrast, policy instruments that focus on redirecting investments-such as feebates or environmental standards-prevent underutilization of existing capital, avoid stranded assets, and reduce short-term losses; but they reduce emissions more slowly and increase the intertemporal cost of the transition. The paper investigates inter- and intra-generational distributional impacts and the political acceptability of climate change mitigation policy instruments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6859
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  • 49
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    New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Matta, Samer New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
    Abstract: Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6950
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  • 50
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    Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods : A Review of Global Evidence (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Evans, David K Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods
    Keywords: Entwicklungshilfe ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Privater Konsum ; Lateinamerika ; Afrika ; Asien
    Abstract: Cash transfers have been demonstrated to improve education and health outcomes and alleviate poverty in various contexts. However, policy makers and others often express concern that poor households will use transfers to buy alcohol, tobacco, or other "temptation goods." The income effect of transfers will increase expenditures if alcohol and tobacco are normal goods, but this may be offset by other effects, including the substitution effect, the effect of social messaging about the appropriate use of transfers, and the effect of shifting dynamics in intra-household bargaining. The net effect is ambiguous. This paper reviews 19 studies with quantitative evidence on the impact of cash transfers on temptation goods, as well as 11 studies that surveyed the number of respondents who reported they used transfers for temptation goods. Almost without exception, studies find either no significant impact or a significant negative impact of transfers on temptation goods. In the only (two, non-experimental) studies with positive significant impacts, the magnitude is small. This result is supported by data from Latin America, Africa, and Asia. A growing number of studies from a range of contexts therefore indicate that concerns about the use of cash transfers for alcohol and tobacco consumption are unfounded
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6886
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  • 51
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    Ecosystems - Burden or Bounty? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Damania, Richard Ecosystems - Burden or Bounty?
    Abstract: This paper presents a somewhat novel approach to explore the economic contribution of ecosystems. It develops linked models to capture connections between resource stocks and flows and the resulting microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. A bioeconomic model is developed that is imbedded into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Incorporating imperfect regulation, the bioeconomic model characterizes optimal policies, while the CGE model explores the economy-wide consequences of possible changes to the ecosystem. The model is parameterized and calibrated to the case of the Serengeti ecosystem which is perhaps the most intensively researched biome with a relative abundance of data. This ecosystem is also undergoing rapid change from a host of factors related to developments within and around the protected area system. The analysis identifies the contribution of the ecosystem to the economy and finds that changes in tourism and bushmeat hunting have surprisingly diffuse economy-wide impacts, that are especially large in the rural sector. To guard against overstatement, ecosystem impacts are under-stated relative to other effects. The results suggest that linkages to the natural resource sector (backward and forward multipliers) are important and neglecting these may lead to biased estimates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6890
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  • 52
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    Progress toward the Health MDGs : Are the Poor Being Left behind? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wagstaff, Adam Progress toward the Health MDGs
    Abstract: This paper looks at differential progress on the health Millennium Development Goals between the poor and better-off within countries. The findings are based on original analysis of 235 Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, spanning 64 developing countries over the period 1990-2011. Five health status indicators and seven intervention indicators are tracked for all the health Millennium Development Goals. In most countries, the poorest 40 percent have made faster progress than the richest 60 percent. On average, relative inequality in the Millennium Development Goal indicators has been falling. However, the opposite is true in a sizable minority of countries, especially on child health status indicators (40-50 percent in the cases of child malnutrition and mortality), and on some intervention indicators (almost 40 percent in the case of immunizations). Absolute inequality has been rising in a larger fraction of countries and in around one-quarter of countries, the poorest 40 percent have been slipping backward in absolute terms. Despite reductions in most countries, relative inequalities in the Millennium Development Goal health indicators are still appreciable, with the poor facing higher risks of malnutrition and death in childhood and lower odds of receiving key health interventions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6894
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  • 53
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    What Do We Know about Preferential Trade Agreements and Temporary Trade Barriers? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P What Do We Know about Preferential Trade Agreements and Temporary Trade Barriers?
    Abstract: Two of the most important trade policy developments to take place since the 1980s are the expansion of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers, such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. Despite the empirical importance of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and the common feature that each can independently have quite discriminatory elements, relatively little is known about the nature of any relationships between them. This paper surveys the literature on some of the political-economic issues that can arise at the intersection of preferential trade agreements and temporary trade barriers and uses four case studies to illustrate variation in how countries apply the World Trade Organization's global safeguards policy instrument. The four examples include recent policies applied by a variety of types of countries and under different agreements: large and small countries, high-income and emerging economies, and free trade areas and customs unions. The analysis reveals important measurement and identification challenges for research that seeks to find evidence of systematic relationships between the formation of preferential trade agreements, the political-economic implications of their implementation, and the use of subsequent temporary trade barriers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6898
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  • 54
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    Financial (Dis-)Information : Evidence from an Audit Study in Mexico (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Giné, Xavier Financial (Dis-)Information
    Abstract: An audit study was conducted in peri-urban Mexico to understand the quality of information and products offered to low-income potential customers. Trained auditors visited multiple financial institutions seeking credit and savings products. Consistent with Gabaix and Laibson (2006), staff voluntarily provides little information about avoidable fees, especially to auditors trained to reveal little knowledge about the market. In addition, clients are almost never offered the cheapest product, most likely because staff is incentivized to offer more expensive products that are thus more profitable to the institution. This suggests that disclosure and transparency policies may be ineffective if they undermine the commercial interest of financial institutions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6902
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  • 55
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    Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries?
    Abstract: Several high-level reports have raised the concern that low-income countries, especially in Africa, are experiencing premature de-industrialization. Have the latecomers to development missed the boat? Are they growing without any structural transformation? Not really. Although their manufacturing sector is not growing, they are benefitting from the Third Industrial Revolution which has enabled them to catch up faster. As services produced and traded across the world expand with advances in technology and globalization, the possibilities for low-income countries to grow faster based on their comparative advantage increases. That comparative advantage can just as easily be in services as in manufacturing. Growth escalators faced by the Lions in Africa may turn out to be different than that experienced by the East Asian Tigers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6971
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  • 56
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    Inequality of Opportunity among Egyptian Children (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ersado, Lire Inequality of Opportunity among Egyptian Children
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the level and trends in inequality of opportunity among Egyptian children during the 2000s. The analysis uses severall tools, including comparison of the distributions of early risks and outcomes across circumstance groups; estimation of the human opportunity index; measurement of the relative contributions of circumstances to inequality of opportunity; and decomposition of changes in inequality of opportunity and factors driving them over time. Egypt has made significant progress in the availability of and access to basic services for children and mothers, in some cases with an overall pro-poor effect. In particular, appreciable improvements have been made in healthcare utilization before and during pregnancy and immunizations. As a result, there has been a decline in inequality of opportunity over the past decade, largely attributable to increased coverage by basic services rather than through redistributive effects. However, there are areas of persistent and emerging concerns, including postnatal care utilization, nutrition, and schooling. Nutrition indicators have deteriorated during the 2000s, affecting a quarter of children regardless of their circumstances. Wide disparities in school enrollment persist, notably at the higher levels. Large regional disparities in access to basic infrastructure exist, with Upper Egypt and the Frontier Governorates lagging the rest of the country. Family background, especially parents' education and wealth, and geographic factors are key factors affecting child development outcomes in Egypt. While interventions targeted at the less advantaged circumstance groups may offer significant potential for enhancing overall equity in postnatal care utilization and schooling, a more inclusive approach would be needed to improve child nutrition outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7026
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  • 57
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    Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cojocaru, Alexandru Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data
    Abstract: The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6889
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  • 58
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    Budget Rules and Resource Booms : A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Devarajan, Shantayanan Budget Rules and Resource Booms
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger. The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource price change is positive and temporary, the best strategy is to save the revenue windfall in a sovereign fund, and use the interest income from the fund to raise citizens' consumption over time. This strategy is preferred to investing in public capital domestically, even when private investment benefits from an enhanced public capital stock. Domestic investment raises the prices of domestic goods, leaving less money for government to transfer to households; public investment is not 100 percent effective in raising output. In the presence of a negative temporary resource price change, however, the best strategy is to cut public investment. This strategy dominates other methods, such as trimming government transfers to households, which reduces consumption directly, or borrowing, which incurs an interest premium as debt rises. In the presence of persistent (positive and negative) shocks, the best strategy is a mix of public investment and saving abroad in a balanced regime that provides a natural insurance against both types of price shocks. The combination of interest income from the sovereign fund, transfers to households, and output growth brought about by public investment provides the best protective mechanism to smooth consumption over time in response to changing resource prices
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6984
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  • 59
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    Can Tax Simplification Help Lower Tax Corruption? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Awasthi, Rajul Can Tax Simplification Help Lower Tax Corruption?
    Abstract: This paper seeks to find empirical evidence of a link between tax simplification and corruption in tax administration. It attempts to do this by first defining "tax simplicity" as a measurable variable and exploring empirical relationships between simpler tax regimes and corruption in tax administration. Corruption in tax administration is calculated with data series from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey Database. The focus is on business taxes. The study includes 104 countries from different income groups and regions of the world. The time period is 2002-12. The empirical findings support the existence of a significant link between the measure of tax corruption and tax simplicity, so a less complex tax system is shown to be associated with lower corruption in tax administration. It is predicted that the combined effect of a 10 percent reduction in both the number of payments and the time to comply with tax requirements can lower tax corruption by 9.64 percent. Some interesting regional differences are observed in the results. Similarly, the income level of countries plays an important role in determining the impact of tax simplification on tax corruption; specifically, the link is stronger for lower-income level countries. The positive link between tax simplicity and lower tax corruption has useful policy implications
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6988
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  • 60
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    A Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012) (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (83 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Taaffe, Jessica A Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012)
    Abstract: An accurate measurement of HIV incidence is a key for policy makers and HIV program managers directing national HIV response. However, there is no perfect method to measure or estimate the rate at which new HIV infections occur in a population. This review compiles and triangulates longitudinal HIV incidence and prevalence data from published studies and trials, national reports and surveys, and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates from the Spectrum model, focusing on 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with generalized HIV epidemics. Three main points can be taken from this analysis of HIV incidence trends. First, modeled HIV incidence and nationally reported HIV prevalence levels in young females suggest that national HIV incidence has declined since 2000 in all except three countries analyzed (stable estimated HIV trends in Burkina Faso, Burundi, and Uganda), but trial and survey data suggest that in some demographics, HIV incidence remains critically high. Second, all modeled national HIV incidence curves and most empirically observed trends commenced a downward trajectory prior to the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy programs around 2004, suggesting the contribution of other factors, such as HIV prevention programs and natural epidemic dynamics, to this decline. Third, modeled HIV incidence estimates, including the incidence peaks in the past, exhibit much variation between Spectrum model versions and when new data are added, emphasizing the uncertainty of model outputs and the need to use incidence estimates with caution
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  • 61
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    Testing Weak Exogeneity in Cointegrated Panels (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Moral-Benito, Enrique Testing Weak Exogeneity in Cointegrated Panels
    Abstract: For reason of empirical tractability, analysis of cointegrated economic time series is often developed in a partial setting, in which a subset of variables is explicitly modeled conditional on the rest. This approach yields valid inference only if the conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest. This paper proposes a new test of weak exogeneity in panel cointegration models. The test has a limiting Gumbel distribution that is obtained by first letting the time dimension of the panel go to infinity and then letting its cross-sectional dimension go to infinity. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation in finite samples via simulation experiments. Finally, as an empirical illustration, the paper reports tests of weak exogeneity of disposable income and wealth in an aggregate consumption equation
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  • 62
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    Seeing is Believing? : Evidence from an Extension Network Experiment (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kondylis, Florence Seeing is Believing?
    Abstract: Extension services are a keystone of information diffusion in agriculture. This paper exploits a large randomized controlled trial to track diffusion of a new technique in the classic Training and Visit (T&V) extension model, relative to a more direct training model. In both control and treatment communities, contact farmers (CFs) serve as points-of-contacts between agents and other farmers. The intervention (Treatment) aims to address two pitfalls of the T&V model: i) infrequent extension agent visits, and ii) poor quality information. Treatment CFs receive a direct, centralized training. Control communities are exposed to the classic T&V model. Information diffusion was tracked through two nodes: from agents to CFs, and from CFs to others. Directly training CFs leads to large gains in information diffusion and adoption, and CFs learn by doing. Diffusion to others is limited: other males adopt the technique perceived as labor saving, with an effect size of 75 percent
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7000
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  • 63
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    Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Geli, Patricia Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings
    Abstract: A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7001
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  • 64
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    Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cruz, Marcio Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
    Abstract: Do export promotion agencies impact the probability of non-exporting firms to export? In the last decade many countries have introduced export promotion agencies to support their firms to deal with asymmetric information problems and make feasible additional gains from trade. Some recent studies have found that the support of these agencies has been effective with respect to the intensive and extensive margins of trade. Nevertheless, because of the lack of information on non-exporting firms, few of them analyze their impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. This paper evaluates the impact of the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (Apex-Brasil) on firms' export status using a unique firm-level dataset that covers the full manufacturing sector in Brazil. To identify the impact of Apex's assistance on firms' export propensity, the paper relies on a procedure of matching difference-in-difference estimators. The empirical results show evidence of the program's positive impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. The effect is heterogeneous according to firms' size categories and sectors. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the program has spillover effects. Although the evidence of positive effect is robust, the low propensity to export for both the treated and the control groups reinforces the importance of other firms' determinants (for example, productivity), which is widely emphasized by the trade literature
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7004
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  • 65
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    Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Responses : A Global Economywide Analysis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jensen, Hans G Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Responses
    Abstract: When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with the terms of trade change. Several recent analyses have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the-envelope method. This paper provides a more comprehensive analysis that uses a global economywide model that is able to take account of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production or consumption. The model is able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of various countries. The results support the conclusion from earlier studies that there is a need for stronger World Trade Organization disciplines on export restrictions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7007
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  • 66
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    Trade and Cities (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Karayalcin, Cem Trade and Cities
    Abstract: Many developing countries display remarkably high degrees of urban concentration that are incommensurate with their levels of urbanization. The cost of excessively high levels of urban concentration can be very high in terms of overpopulation, congestion, and productivity growth. One strand of the theoretical literature suggests that such high levels of concentration may be the result of restrictive trade policies that trigger forces of agglomeration. Another strand of the literature, however, points out that trade liberalization itself may exacerbate urban concentration by favoring the further growth of those large urban centers that have better access to international markets. The empirical basis for judging this question has been weak so far; in the existing literature, trade policies are poorly measured (or are not measured, as when trade volumes are used spuriously). Here, new disaggregated tariff measures are used to empirically test the hypothesis. A treatment-and-control analysis of pre- versus post-liberalization performance of the cities is also employed in liberalizing and non-liberalizing countries. It is found that (controlling for the largest cities that have ports and, thus, have better access to external markets) liberalizing trade leads to a reduction in urban concentration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6913
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  • 67
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    Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth : A Cross-Country Analysis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ferreira, Francisco H. G Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by effort differences, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new metadata sets, consisting of 118 household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the question of whether inequality is associated with economic growth and, in particular, to examine whether inequality of opportunity-driven by circumstances at birth-has a negative effect on subsequent growth. The results are suggestive but not robust: while overall income inequality is generally negatively associated with growth in the household survey sample, we find no evidence that this is due to the component associated with unequal opportunities. In the Demographic and Health Surveys sample, both overall wealth inequality and inequality of opportunity have a negative effect on growth in some of the preferred specifications, but the results are not robust to relatively minor changes. On balance, although the results are suggestive of a negative association between inequality and growth, the data do not permit robust conclusions as to whether inequality of opportunity is bad for growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6915
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  • 68
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    Education Attainment in the Middle East and North Africa : Success at a Cost (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iqbal, Farrukh Education Attainment in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: This paper reviews the experience of the Middle East and North Africa region in education attainment over the past four decades (1970-2010). It documents the following main findings: (a) all countries in the region experienced significant improvements in educational attainment over this period; (b) most countries in the region did better in this regard than comparators that had roughly the same education stocks in 1970; (c) collectively, the region achieved a greater percentage increase in education than other regions; (d) the region's better performance was in part because of higher rates of public spending on education, better food sufficiency status, and a lower initial stock of education in 1970 in comparison with most other developing country regions; and (e) the region had among the lowest payoffs to public spending in terms of increments in education stock; the impressive advance in education was achieved at high cost
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7127
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  • 69
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    Climate Change and Poverty : An Analytical Framework (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hallegatte, Stephane Climate Change and Poverty
    Abstract: Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7126
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  • 70
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    Comparative Advantage, International Trade, and Fertility (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Do, Quy-Toan Comparative Advantage, International Trade, and Fertility
    Abstract: This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of comparative advantage in international trade on fertility. It builds a model in which industries differ in the extent to which they use female relative to male labor and countries are characterized by Ricardian comparative advantage in either female labor or male labor intensive goods. The main prediction of the model is that countries with comparative advantage in female labor intensive goods are characterized by lower fertility. This is because female wages and therefore the opportunity cost of children are higher in those countries. The paper demonstrates empirically that countries with comparative advantage in industries employing primarily women exhibit lower fertility. The analysis uses a geography-based instrument for trade patterns to isolate the causal effect of comparative advantage on fertility
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6930
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  • 71
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    Is Green Growth Good for the Poor? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dercon, Stefan Is Green Growth Good for the Poor?
    Abstract: The developing world is experiencing substantial environmental change, and climate change is likely to accelerate these processes in the coming decades. Due to their initial poverty and their relatively high dependence on environmental capital for their livelihoods, the poor are likely to suffer most due to their low resources for mitigation and investment in adaptation. Economic growth is essential for any large-scale poverty reduction. Green growth, a growth process that is sensitive to environmental and climate change concerns, can be particularly helpful in this respect. We focus on the possible trade-offs between the greening of growth and poverty reduction, and we highlight the sectoral and spatial processes behind effective poverty reduction. High labor intensity, declining shares of agriculture in GDP and employment, migration, and urbanization are essential features of poverty-reducing growth. We contrast some common and stylized green-sensitive growth ideas related to agriculture, trade, technology, infrastructure, and urban development with the requirements of poverty-sensitive growth. We find that these ideas may cause a slowdown in the effectiveness of growth to reduce poverty. The main lesson is that trade-offs are bound to exist; they increase the social costs of green growth and should be explicitly addressed. If they are not addressed, green growth may not be good for the poor, and the poor should not be asked to pay the price for sustaining growth while greening the planet
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6936
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  • 72
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    Incomplete Integration and Contagion of Debt Distress in Economic Unions (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Karayalcin, Cem Incomplete Integration and Contagion of Debt Distress in Economic Unions
    Abstract: This paper compares different fiscal integration schemes on the basis of their ability to finance public investments and resilience to debt distress and contagion. Complete integration schemes, where a central authority chooses the level of public investments with productivity-enhancing externalities across different jurisdictions, are shown to be superior to incomplete integration schemes, where member governments choose public investments unilaterally. As a result, equilibrium income is greater for citizens of member states under a complete integration scheme. Moreover, complete integration schemes are shown to be more resilient to idiosyncratic shocks and more effective in limiting contagion of debt distress. This is mainly because the central authority can credibly borrow more without risking default than member states taken together can and it can "transfer resilience" across them if needed. These findings inform discussions on structural aspects of secular stagnation in Europe by emphasizing a potential challenge in the institutional design of fiscal responsibilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7130
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  • 73
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    Local Foundations for Better Governance : A Review of Ghazala Mansuri and Vijayendra Rao's Localizing Development (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Myerson, Roger B Local Foundations for Better Governance
    Abstract: In Localizing Development, Mansuri and Rao survey theory and evidence for development strategies based on local community empowerment. This note extends their theoretical argument by focusing on local government as a vital source of new leadership. Local leaders who provide better public service can prove their qualifications for higher office, but new competition from popular local leaders may be against the interests of incumbent national leaders. Thus, decentralization reforms that could benefit economic development may face powerful resistance. International assistance should promote a balanced development of local and national governments, along with a free press to monitor government at all levels. To better inform public discussions of decentralization reforms, the World Bank should actively support research on comparative subnational politics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7131
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  • 74
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    Bank Capital and Systemic Stability (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Bank Capital and Systemic Stability
    Abstract: This paper distinguishes among various types of capital and examines their effect on system-wide fragility. The analysis finds that higher quality forms of capital reduce the systemic risk contribution of banks, whereas lower quality forms can have a destabilizing impact, particularly during crisis periods. The impact of capital on systemic risk is less pronounced for smaller banks, for banks located in countries with more generous safety nets, and in countries with institutions that allow for better public and private monitoring of financial institutions. The results show that regulatory capital is effective in reducing systemic risk and that regulatory risk weights are correlated with higher future asset volatility, but this relationship is significantly weaker for larger banks. The paper also finds that increased regulatory risk-weights not correlated with future asset volatility increase systemic fragility. Overall, the results are consistent with the theoretical literature that emphasizes capital as a potential buffer in absorbing liquidity, information, and economic shocks reducing contagious defaults
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6948
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  • 75
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    Measuring the Impact of a Change in the Price of Cashew Received by Exporters on Farmgate Prices and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cont, Walter Measuring the Impact of a Change in the Price of Cashew Received by Exporters on Farmgate Prices and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of a change in the price of cashew received by exporters in general-and by FUNPI, a fund to promote the industrialization of agricultural products, in particular-on farmgate prices and poverty in Guinea-Bissau. The analysis builds a theoretical model of supply chains in export agriculture that includes exporters, traders, and farmers competing in a bilateral oligopoly fashion. The model is adapted to data from the country's cashew sector and a household survey. Given the market structure, a shock on export prices or the introduction of an export tax, such as the FUNPI contribution, has a strong effect on farmgate prices, as farmers absorb about 80 percent of the tax (while exporters take up 13 percent and traders absorb the remaining 7 percent). The effect is uneven across households, as poor rural households are more exposed to price volatility and most cashew farmers are poor. It is estimated that their income falls by 12 percent as a result of the FUNPI contribution. Complementary policies can overcome the effect of the FUNPI surcharge on farmgate prices by aiming for reductions in transport, infrastructure, and transaction costs for traders and exporters. Fostering cashew processing would create added value through a displacement of volume from exporters to processors. The analysis finds it implausible that, under reasonable assumtions, a subsidy would overturn the welfare costs of the FUNPI contribution
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7036
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  • 76
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    Containing Volatility : Windfall Revenues for Resource-Rich Low-Income Countries (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dobronogov, Anton Containing Volatility
    Abstract: An abundance of natural resources is both an opportunity and a challenge for developing countries. Several resource-rich, low-income countries receive amounts of foreign aid that are similar to or larger than their actual or potential revenues from natural resources. In such countries, the donors may have an opportunity to help a government to use its resource revenues productively and minimize the magnitude of risks created by resource rents. Development of aid instruments tailored for such purposes might be helped by model-based analysis of the effects of foreign aid on resource-rich, low-income economies and its interactions with the flows of natural resource revenues. This paper develops a growth model a la Barro in which the government receives windfalls (from natural resources and foreign aid) and rent-seeking agents contest for public funds. The key conclusion is that making aid countercyclical helps to achieve higher economic growth, and so does conditioning disbursements on enhancement of public capital. Introducing elements of insurance in the design of both aid products financing investments in infrastructure and social services and supporting policy and institutional reforms may help to achieve both of these objectives
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6956
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  • 77
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    Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Microcredit Programs on Household Income and Net Worth (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (17 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woutersen, Tiemen Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Microcredit Programs on Household Income and Net Worth
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the utilization of microcredit programs has a significant impact on the income and net worth of the participants. Several micro finance institutes are optimistic on the beneficial effects of microcredit programs. Others describe microcredit with interest rates in excess of 20 percent as a poverty trap. This paper uses more than 20 years of panel data on households in Bangladesh to estimate bounds on the causal effects of microcredit programs. The analysis rejects the hypothesis that these microcredit programs are a poverty trap. Moreover, the paper finds moderately positive effects of such programs
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  • 78
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    The Drivers of Non-Revenue Water : How Effective are Non-Revenue Water Reduction Programs? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van den Berg, Caroline The Drivers of Non-Revenue Water
    Abstract: To many, reducing water losses is seen as key to more sustainable water management. The arguments to reduce water losses are compelling, but reducing water losses has turned out to be challenging. This paper applies a panel data analysis with fixed effects to determine the major drivers of non-revenue water, which is define as the volume of water losses per kilometer of network per day. The analysis uses data from the International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities, covering utilities in 68 countries between 2006 and 2011. The analysis finds that non-revenue water is driven by many factors. Some of the most important drivers are beyond the control of the utility, such as population density per kilometer of network, the type of distribution network, and the length of the network, which are largely the result of urbanization and settlement patterns in the localities that the utility serves. The opportunity costs of water losses are also key in explaining what drives non-revenue water. The paper finds that very low opportunity costs of water losses have an adverse effect on the reduction of non-revenue water. Country fixed effects turn out to be important, meaning that the environment in which the utility operates has an important impact on non-revenue water levels. An important conclusion is that the design of non-revenue water reduction programs should study the main drivers of non-revenue water to provide utility managers with a better understanding of what can be achieved in terms of non-revenue water reduction and whether the benefits of these reductions exceed their costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6997
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  • 79
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    Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States : Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Burt, Alison Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States
    Abstract: As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable-but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7002
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  • 80
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    Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
    Abstract: The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7006
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  • 81
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    School Autonomy and Accountability in Thailand : A Systems Approach for Assessing Policy Intent and Implementation (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arcia, Gustavo School Autonomy and Accountability in Thailand
    Abstract: There is a consensus on the need for Thailand to reform its education system to be able to compete with other high performing countries in the region. In terms of learning outcomes, the most recent evidence from the Programme for International Student Assessment shows little improvement over time. This paper uses the World Bank's Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) approach in Thailand to contrast policy intent and policy implementation in school autonomy and accountability. The policy implementation data were obtained from a survey of school principals of the schools that participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment and merged the data sets. First, the study analyzes the gap between policy intent and policy implementation. Then it examines the effect of the gaps on various schooling outcomes while controlling for covariates. The analysis finds significant differences between the Systems Approach for Better Education Results indicators of policy intent and policy implementation in all areas assessed by the indicators. Schools in Thailand exercise more flexibility in their personnel management in practice than what is intended by policy; student assessments need to address issues of content, reliability, and validity and school accountability needs to improve the interpretation of student assessments to make schools more accountable. There is a positive association between the Programme for International Student Assessment scores and school autonomy and accountability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7012
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  • 82
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    Information is Power : Experimental Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Community Based Monitoring (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nyqvist, Martina Björkman Information is Power
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of two field experiments on local accountability in primary health care in Uganda. Efforts to stimulate beneficiary control, coupled with the provision of report cards on staff performance, resulted in significant improvements in health care delivery and health outcomes in both the short and the longer run. Efforts to stimulate beneficiary control without providing information on performance had no impact on quality of care or health outcomes. The paper shows that informed users are more likely to identify and challenge (mis)behavior by providers and as a result turn their focus to issues that they can manage locally
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7015
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  • 83
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    Public and Private Investments in Innovation Capabilities : Structural Transformation in the Chilean Wine Industry (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dutz, Mark A Public and Private Investments in Innovation Capabilities
    Abstract: This paper assembles novel data on the Chilean wine industry to investigate the role of investments in knowledge capital on sales growth in domestic and international markets. The study uses archival data collected from the Government of Chile to compile and categorize public expenditures and programs supporting the Chilean wine industry over the period of 1990-2012 into investment in different types of knowledge capital. These spending categories are related to industry-level sales growth. The paper finds that the most important correlate is spending on research and development. The study also uses data from a new survey of Chilean wine firms to capture information on firm-specific investments in knowledge capital. The findings show that investments in collaboration capital, in particular hiring foreign consultants, as well as participation in international wine fairs are the strongest correlates of growth in export sales, while spending on aspects of branding (local advertising and brand design) are the strongest correlates of domestic market sales growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6983
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  • 84
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    Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets : Evidence from West Africa (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aker, Jenny C Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets
    Keywords: Telefonnetz ; Agrarmarkt ; Effizienzmarkthypothese ; Agrarpreis ; Westafrika
    Abstract: Mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities, but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets. Building on the work of Aker (2010), this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in Niger. The results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea, a semi-perishable commodity. These effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year. The introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum, two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers. There are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on traders' gross margins or producer price levels, but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra-annual price variation for cowpea. These results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6986
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  • 85
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    International Remittances and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aga, Gemechu Ayana International Remittances and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: This paper uses World Bank survey data, including about 10,000 households in five countries-Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda-to investigate the link between international remittances and households' financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper finds that receiving international remittances increases the probability that the household opens a bank account in all the five countries. This result is robust to controlling for the potential endogeneity of remittances, using as instruments indicators of the migrants' economic conditions in the destination countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6991
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  • 86
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    Credit Conditions and Foreign Direct Investment During the Global Financial Crisis (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Desbordes, Rodolphe Credit Conditions and Foreign Direct Investment During the Global Financial Crisis
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect that tight credit conditions had on outward foreign direct investment flows during the 2008-2010 global financial crisis. A difference-in-differences approach is used to isolate a "credit channel" impact of the global financial crisis on foreign direct investment. The global financial crisis had a stronger negative impact on the relative volume of outward foreign direct investment in financially vulnerable sectors in more financially developed countries, especially if these countries also experienced a banking crisis. These results suggest that lack of access to external finance can partly explain the drop in foreign direct investment during the global financial crisis
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  • 87
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    Export Performance and Geography in Croatia (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Artuc, Erhan Export Performance and Geography in Croatia
    Abstract: This paper uses the gravity model to analyze whether the varying export performance of Croatian counties can be explained by their proximity to border gates, ports, and other county-specific characteristics. The analysis finds that longer distances to border gates increase trade frictions significantly for many product categories, although these frictions have been decreasing between 2007 and 2012. The paper analyzes the county specific factors that are associated with variation in export performance, net of distance. Results show that exports are strongly and positively correlated with motorway and road density, the size of the labor force, low-skill ratio, and the number of patents. These variables are also associated with a greater diversity of exports in terms of products and destinations. Several general policy implications are highlighted. The significant association between motorway and road density and export volume, number of destinations, as well as the diversity of exported products may indicate that improvements in connectivity and facilitation of transport could still play a significant role in enhancing regional trade outcomes. Similarly, good performance in research and development may significantly help to spur competitiveness and allow local producers to enter new markets in products and destinations, which in turn can increase the level of diversification and boost resilience to global economic shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6999
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  • 88
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    Governors and Governing Institutions : A Comparative Study of State-Business Relations in Russia's Regions (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gharafutdinova, Gulnaz Governors and Governing Institutions
    Abstract: The paper uses the latest 2011 round of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey for the Russian Federation, which for the first time was designed to be representative of Russian regions. The paper takes a closer look at regional-level factors influencing the business environment in Russia and, more specifically, conditions that favor the emergence of symbiotic relations between regional authorities and regional businesses. Considering the argued significance of informal rules, norms, and agreements for the regional-level business environment in Russia, the paper uses proxy variables such as tenure and origin of regional governors to identify how these rules are being institutionalized. The findings reveal that, at least in case of Russia, juxtaposing the state and business actors as separate and opposed to each other may overstate the distinction between these two groups of actors and understate the fact that many localities in Russia have witnessed the emergence of mutually beneficial state-business arrangements. Defining whether these arrangements are beneficial or harmful to regional development is beyond the scope of this exploratory paper
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7038
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  • 89
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    How do Countries Measure, Manage, and Monitor Fiscal Risks Generated by Public-Private Partnerships? : Chile, Peru, South Africa, Turkey (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aslan, Cigdem How do Countries Measure, Manage, and Monitor Fiscal Risks Generated by Public-Private Partnerships?
    Abstract: The topic of managing fiscal risks arising from public-private partnerships is receiving increased attention as more governments turn toward this type of financing for large infrastructure projects. Governments can manage balance sheet exposure to public-private partnerships by quantifying and capturing direct obligations and provisions for potential calls on government guarantees associated with public-private partnership projects in the preparation of the medium term fiscal framework and annual budget. This working paper examines how four countries with active public-private partnership projects manage the costs and risks of financial obligations generated by these investments throughout the lifetime of the contracts. The paper seeks to complement the existing literature with a practitioner's point of view while exploring if and how these countries monitor and evaluate the fiscal risks generated by the portfolio of public-private partnerships (as well as individual projects). The countries covered are Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Turkey, all of which have experience implementing public-private partnership projects. The research finds that countries have tailored fiscal risk management and monitoring frameworks to fit their circumstances and respective budgeting, accounting, and reporting practices. All four countries assess the overall or partial credit exposure to monitor and manage their fiscal commitments from public-private partnerships in a consolidated way. All countries have developed evaluation models to help assess fiscal risks and assess project and portfolio level credit exposure. Further scrutiny could be focused on budgeting and accounting practices, which could be strengthened and brought in line with international standards. Similarly, sharing and standardizing information would improve transparency and accountability
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  • 90
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    Roads, Labor Markets, and Human Capital : Evidence from Rural Indonesia (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Yamauchi, Futoshi Roads, Labor Markets, and Human Capital
    Abstract: This paper uses household panel data from rural Indonesia to examine the impact of road quality on labor supply and wages. First, road projects are found to increase transportation speed. Second, the empirical results from intra-village variations of household endowments and labor market behavior show that an increase in transportation speed raised wages in nonagricultural and agricultural employment, and was associated with a decline in working time in agricultural employment, for households whose members are relatively educated. The findings support potential complementarity between road quality and education
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7139
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  • 91
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    Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dasgupta, Susmita Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh
    Abstract: It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7140
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  • 92
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    What is the Social Value of Second-Generation Biofuels? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hertel, Thomas W What is the Social Value of Second-Generation Biofuels?
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7142
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  • 93
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    Brazil Country Program Evaluation, FY2004-11 : Evaluation of the World Bank Group Program (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464802171
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (296 p)
    Edition: World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Independent Evaluation Group Studies
    Abstract: IEG's evaluation shows that the World Bank Group remained an important partner for the government in addressing many key policy challenges. The World Bank adapted its program effectively to meet shifting country needs, which shifted to subnational government support in the mid-2000s. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) provided useful advisory support for structuring public-private partnership projects and trade finance during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) concentrated its activities on the electricity transmission subsector. IEG rates the overall outcome of the Bank Group program as moderately satisfactory, with some important variability across themes. The Bank Group made significant contributions when it served as an advisor, providing analytical input and exchanging views on relevant policy issues. Advisory support for structuring public-private partnership projects leveraged IFC's global expertise in project financing. The Bank Group's convening power provided diverse stakeholders with a platform to examine issues and trade-offs that cut across organizational boundaries. In addition, the Bank helped reduce deforestation in the Amazon through support for a major expansion of protected areas and indigenous territories, as well as for building the capacity of national and state environmental agencies. Results were less satisfactory in addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in logistics and the cost of doing business. These areas remained critical constraints to Brazil's growth and a key government concern. A question regarding the overall country strategy is whether the use of a few very large operations with opportunity cost relative to the IBRD exposure limit was appropriate. The strong demand for Bank Group financial and knowledge support in Brazil is likely to continue. To ensure efficient use of operational resources, the Bank Group must maximize its contribution per dollar loaned and per dollar of Bank Group budget resources. IEG recommends that the Bank Group make catalytic impact a major criterion in the design of its future strategy in Brazil. This means that in selecting the programs and projects to support, the emphasis should be on those with benefits beyond the individual intervention
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  • 94
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    Spatial Dynamics of Electricity Usage in India (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz Spatial Dynamics of Electricity Usage in India
    Abstract: India's manufacturing sector has undergone many spatial adjustments since 1989, including, for example, the organized sector's migration to rural locations, the powerful rise of informal manufacturing within cities, and the development of intermediate cities for manufacturing. This paper investigates the impact of these spatial adjustments for electricity usage in India's manufacturing sector. Striking spatial differences in energy usage exist, and whether spatial adjustments exacerbate or alleviate energy consumption strains is important for issues ranging from reducing India's power blackouts to stemming rising pollution levels. Using detailed surveys for the organized and unorganized sectors, the analysis finds that electricity usage per unit of output in urban plants declined steadily during 1989-2010. In the rural areas, by contrast, electricity consumption per unit of output for organized sector plants peaked in 2000 and thereafter declined. Decomposing the observed trends in aggregate electricity usage from 2000 onwards, the paper finds that most reductions in electricity usage per unit of output came from reductions in existing sites of activity (defined through state-industry-urban/rural cells). The second biggest factor leading to reduced usage was lower usage in fast-growing sectors. By contrast, spatial movements of manufacturing activity across India did not significantly change usage levels and may have even increased them. This appears to have been in part because of the split nature of the mobility, with organized and unorganized sectors migrating in opposite directions
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  • 95
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    Evidence on Policies to Increase the Development Impacts of International Migration (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Evidence on Policies to Increase the Development Impacts of International Migration
    Abstract: International migration offers individuals and their families the potential to experience immediate and large gains in their incomes, and offers a large number of other positive benefits to the sending communities and countries. However, there are also concerns about potential costs of migration, including concerns about trafficking and human rights, a desire for remittances to be used more effectively, and concerns about externalities from skilled workers being lost. As a result there is increasing interest in policies which can enhance the development benefits of international migration and mitigate these potential costs. This paper provides a critical review of recent research on the effectiveness of these policies at three stages of the migration process: pre-departure, during migration, and directed toward possible return. The existing evidence base suggests some areas of policy success: bilateral migration agreements for countries whose workers have few other migration options, developing new savings and remittance products that allow migrants more control over how their money is used, and some efforts to provide financial education to migrants and their families. Suggestive evidence together with theory offers support for a number of other policies, such as lowering the cost of remittances, reducing passport costs, offering dual citizenship, and removing exit barriers to migration. Research offers reasons to be cautious about some policies, such as enforcing strong rights for migrants like high minimum wages. Nevertheless, the paper finds the evidence base to be weak for many policies, with no reliable research on the impact of most return migration programs, nor for whether countries should be trying to induce communal remitting through matching funds
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  • 96
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    From Tapering to Tightening : The Impact of the Fed's Exit on India (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Basu, Kaushik From Tapering to Tightening
    Abstract: The "tapering talk" starting on May 22, 2013, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first spoke of the possibility of the U.S. central bank reducing its security purchases, had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. India was among those hardest hit. The rupee depreciated by 18 percent at one point, causing concerns that the country was heading toward a financial crisis. This paper contends that India was adversely impacted because it had received large capital flows in prior years and had large and liquid financial markets that were a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. In addition, India's macroeconomic conditions had weakened in prior years, which rendered the economy vulnerable to capital outflows and limited the policy room for maneuver. The paper finds that the measures adopted to handle the impact of the tapering talk were not effective in stabilizing the financial markets and restoring confidence, implying that there may not be any easy choices when a country is caught in the midst of rebalancing of global portfolios. The authors suggest putting in place a medium-term policy framework that limits vulnerabilities in advance, while maximizing the policy space for responding to shocks. Elements of such a framework include a sound fiscal balance, sustainable current account deficit, and environment conducive to investment. In addition, India should continue to encourage relatively stable longer-term flows and discourage volatile short-term flows, hold a larger stock of reserves, avoid excessive appreciation of the exchange rate through interventions with the use of reserves and macroprudential policy, and prepare the banks and firms to handle greater exchange rate volatility
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  • 97
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    Can Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Education and Nutrition Outcomes for Poor Children in Bangladesh? : Evidence from a Pilot Project (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ferré, Céline Can Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Education and Nutrition Outcomes for Poor Children in Bangladesh?
    Abstract: There is an increasing recognition that investment in human development at an earlier age can have a significant impact on the lifetime earnings capacity of an individual. This notion is the basis for the popularity of conditional cash transfer programs to help boost child health and education outcomes. The evidence on the impact of conditional cash transfers on health and education outcomes, however, is mixed. This paper uses panel data from a pilot project and evaluates the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption, education, and nutrition outcomes among poor rural families in Bangladesh. Given implementation challenges the intervention was not able to improve school attendance. However the analysis shows that the pilot had a significant impact on the incidence of wasting among children who were 10-22 months old when the program started, reducing the share of children with weight-for-height below two standard deviations from the World Health Organization benchmark by 40 percent. The pilot was also able to improve nutrition knowledge: there was a significant increase in the proportion of beneficiary mothers who knew about the importance of exclusively breastfeeding infants until the age of six months. The results also suggest a significant positive impact on food consumption, especially consumption of food with high protein content
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7077
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  • 98
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    Job Creation in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Job Creation in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the operations that the World Bank has supported to create jobs and promote employment in fragile and conflict-affected situations. A novel approach to identifying projects is presented that enables searching for projects based on stated development objectives, regardless of the sector of the project. Of a sample of 2,166 projects funded by the International Development Association, this resulted in the identification of 98 projects that have specific job creation and employment generation development objectives. Among these projects, 51 percent of countries appearing on the list between 2004 and 2012 have implemented projects. Detailed textual analysis is carried out on the project descriptions and indicators to evaluate how well projects are aligned to the context. The results suggest there is a lack of measurement on outcomes that are particularly relevant for fragile and conflict-affected situations, such as the development of social cohesion, reintegration of those involved or affected by violence, impacts jobs have on the willingness to engage in violence or conflict, perceptions of government accountability, and equitable access to these economic opportunities. Quantitative analysis of the portfolio indicates that there are also systematic differences in the size and resources associated with job creation projects in countries with fragile and conflict-affected situations relative to similar projects in other International Development Association-borrowing countries. Given the mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between jobs and conflict, this report calls for more methodological measurement of the impacts of these programs on stabilization outcomes in the future
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7078
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  • 99
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    Trafficking and Fragility in West Africa (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Trafficking and Fragility in West Africa
    Abstract: Trafficking is an emerging concern in West Africa. In 2011, 17 percent of all cocaine consumed in Europe-21 tons-passed through the region, for a retail value of US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7079
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  • 100
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    Village Political Economy, Land Tenure Insecurity, and the Rural to Urban Migration Decision : Evidence from China (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Giles, John Village Political Economy, Land Tenure Insecurity, and the Rural to Urban Migration Decision
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of land tenure insecurity on the migration decisions of China' rural residents. A simple model first frames the relationship among these variables and the probability that a reallocation of land will occur in the following year. After first demonstrating that a village leader' support for administrative land reallocation carries with it the risk of losing a future election, the paper exploits election-timing and village heterogeneity in lineage group composition and demographic change to identify the effect of land security. In response to an expected land reallocation in the following year, the probability that a rural resident migrates out of the county declines by 2.8 percentage points, which accounts for 17.5 percent of the annual share of village residents, aged 16 to 50, who worked as migrants during the period. This finding underscores the potential importance of secure property rights for facilitating labor market integration and the movement of labor out of agriculture
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7080
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