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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (101)
  • Lederman, Daniel  (58)
  • Foster, Vivien  (44)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (101)
  • Birmingham, AL, USA : EBSCO Industries, Inc.
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (101)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gatti, Roberta Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
    Keywords: Data Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Forecast Error ; GDP Growth Forecast ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Optimism ; Statistical Capacity
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth-are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank's forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund's January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country's Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (250 pages)
    Series Statement: Sustainable Infrastructure
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Electric Mobility ; Electric Vehicle ; EV Adoption ; EV Capital Cost ; EV Environmental Impact ; EV Investment ; EV Operating Cost ; EV Policy ; EV Transition
    Abstract: The Economics of Electric Vehicles for Passenger Transportation' provides answers to three critical questions: Why should developing countries pursue e-mobility? When does an accelerated transition to electric vehicles (EVs) make sense for developing countries? How can governments make this transition happen? A key finding from the research is that there is a strong economic case for EVs in many developing countries. This is news because, despite growing momentum and interest in the sector, 90 percent of EV sales are still concentrated in major markets such as China, Europe, and the United States. According to original models developed by the report's authors, developing countries can look to electric buses as well as to two- and three-wheeled vehicles as entry points to this critical transition. Readers will find many examples of countries already benefiting from e-mobility solutions. For example, Brazil, Chile, and India are leaders in electric bus fleets. Their progress, made possible by innovative financing and procurement practices,is improving mobility in cities, reducing local air pollution, and reducing congestion in fast-growing downtowns. Readers will also see examples from Asian and East African countries, which are embarking on battery-swapping schemes to lower upfront costs of ownership for two- and three-wheeled vehicles. Based on the unique modeling, analysis, and benchmarking of results across 20 developing countries--complemented by a compilation of actual organic and diverse experiences of developing countries with electric mobility adoption--this report provides policy guidance on how governments can accelerate EV adoption, and when and where it makes economic sense to adopt electric mobility more quickly. This report is a critical read for anyone interested in the future of transport and its links with development progress
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cull, Robert Digital Payments and the COVID-19 Shock: The Role of Preexisting Conditions in Banking, Infrastructure, Human Capabilities, and Digital Regulation
    Keywords: Covid-19 Lockdown ; Covid-19 Shock ; Digital Divide ; Digital Infrastructure ; Digital Payment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies
    Abstract: Treating data collected pre- and post-COVID-19 as a quasi-experiment, this paper examines the importance of presumed enablers and safeguards in driving the observed expansion of digital payments and digital financial inclusion. The analysis interacts drivers of digital payment usage with a country-specific proxy of the severity of the COVID-19 shock, leveraging variation in both the drivers and the quasi-treatment (the COVID-19 shock) to identify the parameters. Although regulation of banks and digital economic activity were correlated with digital payments before and during the pandemic, the capabilities of users and connectivity (to electricity, the internet, and mobile telephony) were responsible for increased use of digital financial services in response to the shock. An interpretation is that governments and the private sector were able to overcome underdeveloped banking systems and weak regulation of the digital economy, but only where there was adequate digital infrastructure, connectivity, and a high share of the population that understood and could make use of digital payments
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Adjustments ; Covid-19 ; Currency Depreciations ; Growth ; Inflation ; Jobs ; Labor Markets ; MENA ; Middle East ; Middle East and North Africa ; North Africa ; Shocks ; Terms of Trade ; Wages
    Abstract: Covid-19. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commodity price volatility. The rise of global inflation and interest rates. Currency depreciations among indebted middle-income economies. And now, natural disasters. As a sequence of events, the consequences can be both tragic and long-lasting. After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region's labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. Will these shocks permanently scar the hard-working people of MENA? The report answers this question by highlighting the trade-offs facing labor markets when facing macroeconomic shocks. A critical trade-off pertains to the loss of jobs versus decreases in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages and discusses policy options to support the most vulnerable
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (65 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes: A Qualitative Review of Four Decades of Literature
    Keywords: Development Impact of Infrastructure ; Digital Infrastructure ; Highway Impact on Development ; Human Capital Formation ; Impact of Electrification ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Ports and Development ; Reliability of Supply ; Rural Roads Impact on Development ; Social Development ; Transport Infrastructure Impact on Development
    Abstract: Policy makers have long used investing in public infrastructure as a means of reducing geographical disparities and promoting growth. The goal of this paper is to provide insights to development practitioners on designing interventions to maximize the development impact of infrastructure. For this, the paper presents a systematic qualitative overview of the literature, covering more than 300 studies conducted between 1983 and 2022, focusing on specific infrastructure sectors, namely digital, energy, and transport. The study also considers various dimensions of development impact, including output and productivity, poverty and inequality, labor market outcomes, human capital formation, and trade, to develop a nuanced understanding of the mechanisms through which infrastructure contributes to these development outcomes, focusing on low- and middle-income countries. As such, it is the most substantive effort of its kind to date. Overall, despite some mixed results, the overwhelming balance of evidence suggests that infrastructure improvements are critical in supporting the development process. Studies on digital infrastructure show that firm productivity, employment, and welfare increase with the arrival of broadband internet coverage. In addition, the availability of mobile phones improves coordination between producers and traders and hence reduces the price dispersion of agricultural products. Turning to rural electrification, significant literature documents the positive impact of infrastructure on household welfare, structural transformation, and human capital formation through increased labor force participation, more time spent on education, and increased indoor air quality. Investments in the reliability of power supply also contribute to firms' productivity. However, studies based on randomized controlled trials have not tended to find a substantial short-term impact in the context of dispersed rural populations. Finally, there is rich literature on various transport infrastructure-to-development linkages, particularly for rural roads and for Sub-Saharan Africa. While households' income and consumption benefit from the existence of rural roads, highways are also found to contribute to firms' competitiveness. Similarly, public transportation, railways, and ports have positive impacts on the development process
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis
    Keywords: Digital Infrastructure Outcomes ; Energy Infrastructure Research ; ICT Infrastructure Research ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Infrastructure Elasticities ; Infrastructure Literature Meta-Analysis ; Infrastructure Policy Research ; Poverty Reduction ; Transport Infrastructure Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper presents a meta-analysis of the infrastructure research done over more than three decades, using a database of close to a thousand estimates from 201 papers conducted between 1983-2022, reporting outcome elasticities. The analysis casts a wide net to include the transport, energy, and digital or information and communications technology sectors and the whole set of outcomes covered in the literature, including output, employment and wages, inequality and poverty, trade, education and health, population, and environmental aspects. The results allow for an update of the underlying parameters of interest, the "true" underlying infrastructure elasticities, accounting for publication bias, as well as for heterogeneity stemming from both study design and context, with a particular focus on policy relevant subsectors and developing countries
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (176 pages)
    Series Statement: Sustainable Infrastructure
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending. Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure-through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure service delivery often ends up costing significantly more than expected, eroding limited fiscal space for productive spending. This book makes a unique contribution by quantifying the magnitude and prevalence of fiscal risks from electricity and transport infrastructure and identifying their root causes across a range of low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on important new sources of evidence and compiling many others, the analysis sheds light on how much is at stake in the good governance of infrastructure sectors. It allows policy makers to weigh the magnitudes of different types of risks and examine how they vary across contexts. Off the Books shows how a deeper understanding of the fiscal risks of infrastructure can help policy makers target reforms to areas where they can be expected to have the greatest impact. It lays out a reform agenda for mitigating the fiscal risks associated with infrastructure based on building government capacity; adopting integrated public investment management and integrated fiscal risk management; improving fiscal and corporate governance of SOEs; and ensuring robust PPP preparation, procurement, and contract management. The book will be of enormous value to policy makers, practitioners, and academics who have an interest in infrastructure and fiscal policy
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Abstract: Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic-induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich. Moreover, food insecurity in MENA has been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arias, Francisco Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Mexico
    Keywords: Difference in Difference ; Education ; Education and Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Employment ; Job Displacement ; Job Loss Impact by Education ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Wages ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of -7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from -7.5 to -4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region's growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Yuting Fan, Rachel Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Coronavirus Economic Recovery ; COVID-19 Recovery ; Debt Financed Public Spending ; Developing Country Debt ; Disaster Recovery ; Economic Impact Of Covid Pandemic ; Economic Recover In Developing Countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Government Debt ; Pandemic Economic Impact ; Public Debt ; Public Debt Restructuring ; Public Sector Development ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Public debt in developing economies rose at a fast clip during 2020-21, at least partly due to the onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman opined in early 2021 that "fighting covid is like fighting a war." This paper argues that the Covid-19 pandemic shares many traits with natural disasters, except for the global nature of the pandemic shock. This paper empirically examines trends in debt and economic growth around the onset of three types of calamities, namely natural disasters, armed conflicts, and external-debt distress in developing countries. The estimations provide quantitative estimates of differences in growth and debt trends in economies suffering episodes of calamities relative to the trends observed in economies not experiencing calamities. The paper finds that debt and growth evolve quite differently depending on the type of calamity. The evidence indicates that public debt and output growth tend to rise faster after natural disasters than in the counterfactual scenario without disasters, thus illustrating how debt-financed fiscal expansions can help economic reconstruction. The findings are different for episodes of debt distress defined as periods of debt restructuring, however. Economies experiencing debt distress are associated with growth trends that are on average below the growth rates of unaffected economies prior to and after the beginning of an episode of debt restructuring
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (94 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: The argument that digitalization fosters economic activity has been strengthened by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Because digital technologies are general-purpose technologies that are usable across a wide variety of economic activities, the gains from achieving universal coverage of digital services are likely to be large and shared throughout each economy. However, the Middle East and North Africa region suffers from a "digital paradox": the region's population uses social media more than expected for its level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but uses the internet or other digital tools to make payments less than expected. The Upside of Digital for the Middle East and North Africa: How Digital Technology Adoption Can Accelerate Growth and Create Jobs presents evidence that the socioeconomic gains of digitalizing the economies of the region are huge: GDP per capita could rise by more than 40 percent; manufacturing revenue per unit of factors of production could increase by 37 percent; employment in manufacturing could rise by 7 percent; tourist arrivals could rise by 70 percent, creating jobs in the hospitality sector; long-term unemployment rates could fall to negligible levels; and female labor force participation could double to more than 40 percent. To reap these gains, universal access to digital services is crucial, as is their widespread use for economic purposes. The book explores how fast the region could approach universal coverage, whether targeting the rollout of digital infrastructure services makes a difference, and what is needed to increase the use of digital payment tools. The authors find that targeting underserved populations and areas can accelerate the achievement of universal access, while fostering competition and improving the functioning of financial and telecommunications sectors can encourage the adoption of digital technologies. In addition, building societal trust in the government and in related institutions such as banks and financial services is critical for fostering the increased use of digital payment tools
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Mobility and Transport Connectivity
    Keywords: Electric Power ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Environment ; Green Issues ; Urban Development ; Electric Vehicles ; Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) ; Public Transport ; Transport Sector ; Electric Mobility
    Abstract: Electric mobility has garnered growing interest and significant momentum across several major global markets, often motivated by transport sector decarbonization. Together, Europe, China, and the United States account for more than 90 percent of the world's electric vehicle fleet. For many OECD countries, electric mobility is seen primarily as a lever for transport sector decarbonization, given that many of the other relevant policy options have already been exhausted. This report finds that electric mobility is also increasingly relevant for low- and middle-income countries. As of today, electric mobility for passengers is a comparative rarity across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In some of the LMIC leading markets, such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia, electric vehicles account for less than 0.5 percent of total sales. There are signs that this situation is changing. India, Chile, and Brazil are leading the way in electrifying their bus fleets in their largest cities by introducing innovative financing practices and improved procurement practices. Battery swapping schemes are taking off in Asian and East African countries to lower the upfront cost of two-and three-wheelers. Original modeling for this report suggests that established global policy targets, such as 30 percent of new passenger vehicles to be electric by 2030, will make economic sense for many LMICs under a wide range of possible scenarios
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Pandemic ; Recovery
    Abstract: The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises-first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine-have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk-from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region's development failings-including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (64 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Oughton, Edward J Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and 5G Universal Broadband Affordable
    Abstract: The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international community to accelerate universal broadband, but the cost of meeting these objectives in the context of rapid technological change are not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies for the developing world to achieve universal 4G or 5G mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative low- and middle-income countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru, and Mexico), which provide the basis for aggregation to the global level. The cost of meeting UN Broadband Commission targets across the developing world is estimated at USD 1.6-1.7 trillion over the next decade, approximately 0.5-0.6% of annual gross domestic product for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by as much as three-quarters - to USD 0.5 trillion (around 0.15 percent of annual gross domestic product) - and largely avoid the need for public subsidies. While 4G technology remains somewhat more cost-effective at the global scale, 5G NSA can sometimes prove less costly at the national level, particularly for countries with relatively low existing coverage of 4G technologies, and a tendency to be capacity-constrained in terms of demand. Providing that governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes that are conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Foster, Vivien Understanding Drivers of Decoupling of Global Transport CO2 Emissions from Economic Growth: Evidence from 145 Countries
    Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Emissions ; Climate Change Mitigation ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Environment ; Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Sector
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which countries have succeeded in decoupling transport emissions from economic growth, and how changes in emissions intensity, economic growth, and population growth have contributed to changes in transportation-related emissions. The paper employs a modified version of the Tapio decoupling model, and demonstrates that over the 1990-2018 study period only 12 of 145 countries achieved "absolute decoupling," defined as reducing emissions while growing gross domestic product. The majority of the top emitters remain in a "relative decoupling" state, with emissions growing more slowly than gross domestic product. Many of the middle- and low-income countries have not achieved decoupling; their emissions are growing as fast as or faster than gross domestic product. To understand the driving factors of transport-related carbon emissions, the paper conducts index-decomposition and an econometric analysis. The results reveal that while transportation emission intensity has declined in most countries, economic growth and population growth have offset these declines. If these patterns continue, achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement with improvements in efficiency alone seems unrealistic. The paper also shows evidence that higher energy prices are associated with strong emissions reduction
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Current Account ; Economic Growth ; External Balances ; Fiscal Balance ; Oil ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Productivity
    Abstract: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region's economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region's public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region's health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ana Paula, Ana Paula The Effects of Digital-Technology Adoption on Productivity and Factor Demand: Firm-Level Evidence from Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper presents firm-level estimates of revenue-based total factor productivity premiums of manufacturing firms adopting digital technology in 82 developing economies over 2002-19. The paper estimates productivity using the control function approach and assuming an endogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, which is a function of multiple firm-choice variables. It estimates the effects of digital technology adoption, learning by exporting, and managerial experience on revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The results reject the 0 hypothesis of an exogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, in favor of one in which digital technology adoption, along with the other choice variables, affects revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The estimated premiums are positive for 67.3 (email adoption), 54.6 (website adoption), 59.4 (learning by exporting), and 60.6 (managerial experience) percent of the sample. The probability-adjusted median (log) revenue-based total factor productivity premium associated with email adoption is 1.6 percent and that of website adoption is 2.2 percent, with the latter being higher than the premiums corresponding to exporting and managerial experience. On average, changes in digital technology adoption, email, and website are labor and capital augmenting. The paper also explores the role of complementarities among the firm choice variables
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464814433
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (356 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Sustainable Infrastructure
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: During the 1990s, a new p ...
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  • 23
    ISBN: 9781464809781
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (196 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    Keywords: Labor Market Integration ; Regional Integration ; Trade Integration ; Economic Integration ; Stability
    Abstract: This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region's policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements
    Note: Description based on print version record
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Foster, Vivien Charting the Diffusion of Power Sector Reforms across the Developing World
    Abstract: Some 25 years have elapsed since international financial institutions espoused a package of power sector reform measures that became known as the Washington Consensus. This package encompassed the establishment of autonomous regulatory entities, the vertical and horizontal unbundling of integrated national monopoly utilities, private sector participation in generation and distribution, and eventually the introduction of competition into power generation and even retail services. Exploiting a unique new data set on the timing and scope of power sector reforms adopted by 88 countries across the developing world over 25 years, this paper seeks to improve understanding of the uptake, diffusion, packaging, and sequencing of power sector reforms, and the extent to which they were affected by the economic and political characteristics of the countries concerned. The analysis focuses on describing the patterns of reform without judging their desirability or evaluating their impact. The paper finds that following rapid diffusion during 1995-2005, the spread of power sector reforms slowed significantly in 2005-15. Only a small minority of developing countries fully implemented the reform model as originally conceived. For the majority, reforms were only selectively adopted according to ease of implementation, often stagnated at an intermediate stage, and were sometimes packaged and sequenced in ways unrelated to the original logic. Country characteristics such as geography, income group, power system size, and political economy all had a significant influence on the uptake of reform. Moreover, a significant number of countries experienced reversals of private sector participation, or were unable to follow through with reform plans that were officially announced. Overall, power sector reform in the developing world lags far behind what was achieved in the developed world during the same time period. Yet, even in the developed world, the full package of reforms does not seem to have been universally adopted
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN
    Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and gross domestic product per capita of economies from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The increase in gross domestic product per capita that these economies experienced during 1970-2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class. The impact of the rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on the countries' initial level of gross domestic product per capita. In the majority of these countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to gross domestic product per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth, based on the values of the countries' gross domestic product per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of gross domestic product per capita, a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth in gross domestic product per capita. The paper shows that human capital accumulation is an important channel through which a rise of the middle class affects economic growth
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This report by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank studies the region's fiscal policies. After reviewing LAC's growth performance, Chapter 1 provides an accounting of its financing needs during the 21st Century to understand how such a diverse region ended up with fiscal deficits across the board in 2016. Chapter 2 goes back to the 1960s and assesses the cyclical properties of fiscal policies. LAC, like most developing countries and in contrast with most developed economies, exhibited procyclical fiscal policies. Good news arrived in the 2000s: one in three economies became countercyclical, which helped improve credit ratings. Yet fiscal policy is complicated by our inability to know if current economic conditions are temporary or permanent. The report argues for a prudent stance that would err on the side of saving too much during upswings and perhaps borrowing too little during downturns
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464810435
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (132 p)
    Series Statement: Directions in Development
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Does economic size matter for economic development outcomes? If so are current policies adequately addressing the role of size in the development process? Using working age population as a proxy for country size, Open and Nimble, systematically analyzes what makes small economies unique. Small economies are not necessarily prone to underdevelopment and in fact can achieve very high income levels. Small economies, however, do tend to be highly open to both international trade and foreign direct investment, have highly specialized export structures, and have large government expenditures relative to their Gross Domestic Product. The export structures of small economies are concentrated in a few products or services and in a small number of export destinations. In turn, this export concentration is associated with terms of trade volatility, which combined with high exposure to international trade, implies that small economies tend to face more volatility on average as external volatility permeates national economic life. Yet small economies tend to compensate for their export concentration by being nimble in the sense of being able to change their production and export structure relatively quickly over time. Moreover, limited territory plays a role in shaping how economies are affected by natural disasters, even when the probability of facing such disasters is not necessarily higher among small than among large economies. The combination of large governments with macroeconomic volatility seems to be associated with low national savings rates in small economies. This combination could be a challenge for long-term growth if productivity growth and foreign investment do not compensate for low domestic savings. The book finishes with some thoughts on how policy makers can respond to these issues through coordinated investments and regional integration efforts, as well as fiscal policy reforms aimed at both increasing public savings and conducting countercyclical fiscal policies
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brambilla, Irene Exporters, Engineers, and Blue-Collar Workers
    Abstract: This paper investigates differences in the composition of employment between exporting and non-exporting firms. In particular, it asks whether exporting firms hire more engineers relative to blue-collar workers than non-exporting firms. In a stylized partial-equilibrium model, firms produce goods of varying quality and exporters tend to produce higher quality goods, which are intensive in engineers relative to blue-collar workers. Firms are heterogeneous and more productive firms become exporters and have a higher demand for engineers. The paper provides causal evidence in support of these theories using the Chilean Encuesta Nacional Industrial Anual, an annual census of manufacturing firms. The results from an instrumental variable estimator suggest that Chilean exporters indeed utilize a higher share of engineers over blue-collar workers
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right : On the Impacts of Commodity Prices on Households (and Countries)
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact that one-time changes in commodity and other prices have on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The ata uncovers strong commodity dependence on both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities, and they often also depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity price shocks. The article explores these effects with a review of the relevant literature. The authors study consumption and income responses, labor market responses, and spillovers across sectors. The paper provides evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This report, produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank, examines LAC's challenges as the global economy settles to an equilibrium with lower growth and lower commodity prices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the world economy and how it affects LAC's short and medium-term prospects. It argues that LAC suffered an external shock that shaped growth in recent years, and that the current global context is likely here to stay. Many LAC countries experienced significant depreciations which in principle should help adjust to the new equilibrium. The extent to which these depreciations facilitate a soft landing, however, depends on a number of factors. Chapter 2 explores the response of LAC's trade to the recent depreciations and the role it could play in facilitating a recovery. It examines if there are early signs of an export recovery and whether the region's increased dependence on commodity exports could hinder LAC's recovery
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 1990-2013
    Abstract: Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labor markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labor markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labor market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labor markets within Mexico and within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labor market integration
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bennett, Federico The Volatility of International Trade Flows in the 21st Century: Whose Fault Is It Anyway?
    Abstract: After investment, exports and imports are the most volatile components of aggregate demand within countries. Moreover, the volatility of growth and the volatility of trade flows tend to move together; they declined from the 1990s until 2009, followed by an increase since 2009. This paper explores the drivers of such movements in trade-flow volatility. The analysis decomposes trade growth into six components to study their contribution to the overall volatility of trade flows, and presents three findings. First, trade volatility is mostly explained by a factor common to all countries, country-specific factors, and changes in the gravity-related characteristics of a country's trading partners. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre-2009 decline in volatility and the post-2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a steady decline in the variance of country-specific factors. In contrast, the latter appears to be driven mainly by an increase in the volatility of factors common to all countries. Third, trade diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in trade volatility driven by country-specific factors, especially in developing countries
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hakobyan, Shushanik Factor Endowments, Technology, Capital Mobility and the Sources of Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing
    Abstract: Using data on net exports and factor endowments for more than 100 countries, this paper studies the relationship between factor endowments and comparative advantage in 28 manufacturing sectors between 1975 and 2010. The authors allow for systematic technological differences across countries, including differences in factor intensities across countries with different ratios of skilled labor over unskilled labor. Capital seems to be a source of comparative disadvantage in manufacturing, and skilled labor is a source of comparative advantage in the global sample. However, skilled labor is a source of comparative disadvantage in economies with low human capital, whereas it is a source of comparative advantage in the sample of countries with high human capital. The authors attribute this heterogeneity to the rise of capital mobility across countries, particularly since the mid-1990s
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bravo-Ortega, Claudio Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation
    Abstract: The diffusion of knowledge plays a central role in endogenous growth theories. Simply put, in these models new knowledge can be generated from preexisting knowledge. In other words, existing knowledge is a pure public good, which can benefit any economic agent anywhere. More generally, endogenous growth theories rely on a broad set of assumptions that have not been tested sufficiently, especially for developing economies. The scope and nature of knowledge spillovers is, however, important for policy, because the presumed positive spillovers can justify government intervention (if the spillovers are localized) or laissez faire (if the spillovers are international). This paper empirically assesses the scope and direction of knowledge spillovers in national patenting and, separately, product innovation by firms. The first set of exercises tests whether the cumulative knowledge specifications of the knowledge production function can explain international patterns of patenting or whether own research and development is necessary to produce patents. The second set of exercises analyzes whether firm product-quality upgrading and the introduction of new products depend on product innovation within industries, within or across countries. The evidence supports the view that existing stocks of knowledge, domestic and foreign, enhance national innovation and entrepreneurship in the form of product innovation. More specifically, the evidence suggests that within-country and international knowledge spillovers are positive, but international spillovers can be negative for firms that are far from innovative firms in terms of productivity. The results depend on the concept of "distance" between countries and firms
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Halliday, Timothy Tracking Wage Inequality Trends with Prices and Different Trade Models: Evidence from Mexico
    Abstract: Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexicos accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. The rise of inequality can be explained by the evolution of the relative price of skill-intensive goods relative to unskilled-intensive goods, but these prices flattened by 1999 and thus cannot explain the subsequent decline in wage inequality. An alternative trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model's predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the models simplicity, the model's predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Latent Trade Diversification and its Relevance for Macroeconomic Stability
    Abstract: Poverty Reduction
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  • 37
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (248 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg. Latin America and the rising South
    DDC: 332.098
    RVK:
    Keywords: Entwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftslage ; Lateinamerika ; Karibischer Raum ; Wirtschaftliche Integration ; Weltwirtschaft ; Sozioökonomischer Wandel ; Süden ; Emerging Market ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Außenhandel ; Finanzwirtschaft ; Investition ; domestic savings ; FDI ; Financial integration ; Foreign direct investment ; Global financial network ; Global trade network ; Global value chains ; Globalization ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor market dynamics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate dynamics ; Rise of the south ; Trade Integration ; Trade structure ; Erde ; Lateinamerika
    Abstract: The world economy is not what it used to be twenty years ago. For most of the 20th century, the world economy was characterized by developed (North) countries acting as 'center' to a 'periphery' of developing (South) countries. However, the recent rise of developing economies suggests the need to go beyond this North-South dichotomy. This tectonic re-configuration of the global landscape has brought about significant changes to countries in the Latin America and Caribean (LAC) region. The time is ripe for an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and nature of LAC's external connections.This latest volume in the World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies series will focus on the implications of these trends for the economic development of LAC countries. In particular, trade, financial, macroeconomic, and sectoral shifts, as well as labor-market aspects will be systematically analyzed
    Note: Description based on print version record
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  • 38
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus Effects of Income Inequality on Aggregate Output
    Abstract: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
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  • 39
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (256 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    Keywords: Spanish translation ; FDI ; Foreign direct investment ; Domestic savings ; Financial integration
    Abstract: Este reporte explora la restructuracion de la economia global ocasionada por el ascenso del Sur y destaca la transformacion en los patrones de integracion global de ALC y las consecuencias de esta transformacion en la dinamica del desarrollo de la region. En particular, se analiza de forma sistematica los aspectos concernientes al comercio y las finanzas internacionales, la macroeconomia y el mercado laboral latinoamericano
    Note: Description based on print version record
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion and Firm Entry into and Survival in Export Markets
    Abstract: Surveys of export promotion agencies suggest that that they tend to focus on helping firms become exporters as a means to stimulate aggregate export growth. But the existing empirical evidence has paid little attention to the role of export promotion agencies in helping entry into exporting. This paper fills this gap with a panel of exporting and non-exporting firms from seven Latin American countries during the period 2006-2010. The results suggest that export promotion encourages exports mainly by helping firms enter into and survive in export markets. The impact on the intensive margin of exporting firms is not robust. This finding is consistent with export promotion helping reduce fixed rather than variable costs of exporting, which is to be expected if export promotion agencies help correct for market failures associated with information externalities
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Shocks and the Volatility of Returns to Schooling: Evidence from Twelve Latin American Economies
    Abstract: This paper builds on previous studies to uncover evidence suggesting that cyclical fluctuations in returns to schooling are determined by fluctuations in foreign demand, which tend to be positively correlated with returns to schooling. The effec
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Artuç, Erhan The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Hondu
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hollweg, Claire H Structural Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates. Together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross-country macro level on labor-market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. Data were collected from a variety of sources, including the World Bank World Development Indicators, the International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, and the International Labor Organization Key Indicators of the Labor Market. The resulting dataset covers up to 88 countries, the majority being developing, for 10 years on either side of structural reforms that took place between 1960 and 2001. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, the authors run fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor. Unlike related literature, the paper does not find conclusive evidence on unemployment. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work
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  • 45
    ISBN: 9781464802850
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (178 p)
    Series Statement: Latin American Development Forum
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: El emprendimiento es un determinante fundamental del crecimiento y la creacion de empleo. Pese a que los emprendedores abundan en America Latina y el Caribe, las empresas de la region son mas pequenas y menos propensas a crecer e innovar que las de otras regiones. El crecimiento de la productividad lleva decadas siendo mediocre y el reciente period de auge de las materias primas no ha supuesto una excepcion. Asi pues, la presencia de emprendedores dinamicos sera necesaria para impulsar la creacion de puestos de trabajo de calidad y la aceleracion del crecimiento de la productividad en la region. En El emprendimiento en America Latina: muchas empresas y poca innovacion se estudia el panorama del emprendimiento en America Latina y el Caribe. El libro recurre a nuevas bases de datos que abordan cuestiones como la creacion de empresas, las dinamicas empresariales, las decisiones de exportar y el comportamiento de las corporaciones multinacionales y sintetiza los resultados de un analisis exhaustivo del estatus, las perspectivas y los retos del emprendimiento en la region. Asimismo, el libro suministra herramientas utiles e informacion para ayudar a los profesionales y responsables de las politicas a identificar los ambitos de las mismas que los gobiernos pueden explorar para impulsar la innovacion e incentivar el emprendimiento transformador con potencial de crecimiento elevado
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Artuç, Erhan A Mapping of Labor Mobility Costs in Developing Countries
    Abstract: Estimates of labor mobility costs are needed to assess the responses of employment and wages to trade shocks when factor adjustment is costly. Available methods to estimate those costs rely on panel data, which are seldom available in developing countries. The authors propose a method to estimate mobility costs using readily obtainable data worldwide. The estimator matches the changes in observed sectoral employment allocations with the predicted allocations from a model of costly labor adjustment. This paper estimates a world map of labor mobility costs and uses those estimates to explore the response of labor markets to trade policy
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arias, Javier Trade, Informal Employment and Labor Adjustment Costs
    Abstract: Informal employment is ubiquitous in developing countries, but few studies have estimated workers' switching costs between informal and formal employment. This paper builds on the empirical literature grounded in discrete choice models to estimate these costs. The results suggest that inter-industry labor mobility costs are large, but entry costs into informal employment are significantly lower than the costs of entry in formal employment. Simulations of labor-market adjustments caused by a trade-related fall in manufacturing goods prices indicate that the share of informally employed workers rises after liberalization, but this is due to entry into the labor market by previously idle labor
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fernandes, Ana M Export Entrepreneurship and Trade Structure in Latin America during Good and Bad Times
    Abstract: The authors use a new dataset on export transactions for a large set of Latin American and Caribbean and comparator countries to assess the extent of "export entrepreneurship" during periods of fast export growth (2005-2007) and depressed external demand (2008-2009). Export entrepreneurship is equated with the extensive margin of exports, namely the advent of new exporting firms, new export products, and new export market destinations. The main findings are: (1) annual exporter entry, exit, and survival rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are quite similar to what is observed in other countries, and entry rates across sectors are quite similar but survival rates appear to be highest in agriculture; (2) the relative size of entrants into export markets (relative to incumbents) tended to be lower for natural resource-abundant countries during 2005-2007, but less so during the crisis years of 2008-2009; (3) entry rates tend to be lower in sectors in which a country has revealed comparative advantage, however, exit rates and survival rates of new exporters are higher in those sectors; and (4) the low growth of exports during the global recession of 2008-2009 in Latin America and the Caribbean was due to lower growth in exports of incumbent firms' pre-existing products and destinations, while new products and destinations tended to attenuate the recession's effects. Overall, the data suggest that the Latin American and Caribbean region appears to be no less entrepreneurial in terms of the extensive margins of exports than comparator countries
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaplan David S What Drives Short-Run Labor Market Volatility in Offshoring Industries?
    Abstract: Recent research shows that employment in Mexico's offshoring maquiladora industries is twice as volatile as employment in their U.S. industry counterparts. The analyses in this paper use data from Mexico's social security records and U.S. customs between the first quarter of 2007 and the last quarter of 2009 to identify four channels through which economic shocks emanating from the United States were amplified when transmitted into Mexico's offshoring labor market of Northern Mexico. First, employment and imports within industries are complements, which is consistent with imports being used as inputs for the assembly of exportable goods within industries. That is, when imports fell during the crisis, employment in Mexico was reduced rather than protected by the fall of imports. Second, contrary to other studies, employment is more responsive than wages to trade shocks. Third, fluctuations in Mexico-U.S. trade were associated with changes in the composition of employment, with the skill level of workers rising during downturns and falling during upswings. This implies that the correlation between average wages and trade shocks is partly driven by labor-force compositional effects, which may obscure individual-worker wage flexibility. Fourth, trade shocks affecting related industries (industries linked by employment flows affect employment at least as much as own-industry trade shocks, thus amplifying employment volatility through the propagation of shocks across industries within Northern Mexico. Furthermore, the data suggest that the observed fluctuations in U.S.-Mexico trade at the onset of the Great Recession in the U.S. were not associated with pre-existing employment trends in Northern Mexico
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ranganathan, Rupa Uganda's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Uganda has made substantial progress on its infrastructure agenda in recent years. The early and successful ICT reform detonated a huge expansion in mobile coverage and penetration resulting in a highly competitive market. Power sector restructuring has paved the way for a rapid doubling of power generation capacity. Uganda is doing well on the water and sanitation MDGs, and has made effective use of performance contracting to improve utility performance. However, a number of important challenges remain. Despite reforms, the power sector continues to hemorrhage resources due to under-pricing and high distribution losses, while electrification rates are still very low. Providing adequate resources for road maintenance remains a challenge, and further investment is needed to increase rural connectivity and improve road safety. Addressing Uganda's infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditure of around
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brückner, Markus Trade Causes Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: In the 1990s the mainstream consensus was that trade causes growth. Subsequent research shed doubt on the consensus view, as evidence suggested that the identification of the effect of trade on growth was problematic in the existing literature. This paper contributes to this debate by focusing on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It estimates the effect of openness to international trade on economic growth with panel data. Employing instrumental variables techniques that correct for endogeneity bias, the empirical evidence suggests that within-country variations in trade openness cause economic growth: a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over gross domestic product is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5 percent per year; the long-run effect is larger, reaching about 0.8 percent after ten years. These results are robust to controlling for country and time fixed effects as well as political institutions
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hollweg, Claire H Monitoring Export Vulnerability to Changes in Growth Rates of Major Global Markets
    Abstract: Interest in assessing the impacts on developing countries of changes in major markets' economic performance has risen in tandem with global economic uncertainty over short- and medium-term growth prospects. This paper proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country's exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. The authors capture this sensitivity by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Furthermore, export vulnerability is computed separately for commodities and differentiated products. This methodology is applied to six developing countries, one from each World Bank region, selected to be otherwise similar yet differ in terms of the level of exposure to major global markets as well as the product composition of their export basket. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets. This result calls for developing countries to diversify their export markets rather than shielding themselves from international markets, which would actually raise economic risk and vulnerability
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Liberia's infrastructure
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Large devaluations, foreign direct investment and exports
    Abstract: One side-effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was the resurgence of a debate over exchange rates. The conventional wisdom dictates that real-exchange rate adjustments are needed in order to bring about changes in trade balances across countries. However, the literature on the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and currency under-valuations on exports is surprisingly ambiguous. This note explores for the first time the potential role of foreign direct investment as an intermediate variable in the process of trade adjustment after large real-exchange rate changes. Real-exchange rate devaluations might result in increases in foreign direct investment inflows, as investors can take advantage of changes in the foreign-currency value of domestic assets. If so, the response of exports will depend to some extent on the nature of such foreign direct investment inflows, with inflows motivated by "horizontal" foreign direct investment associated with negligible changes in export growth after devaluation. The author utilizes quarterly data on real effective exchange rates, foreign direct investment inflows and exports to explore the effects of large devaluations (defined as the largest observed quarterly real effective exchange rate devaluation) on foreign direct investment and exports from 1990 to 2010. The admittedly speculative evidence suggests that there were heterogeneous experiences regarding the timing and magnitude of subsequent changes in foreign direct investment and exports, but on average foreign direct investment inflows tended to precede export surges within two year horizons
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  • 55
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ranganathan, Rupa The SADC's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure improvements boosted growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) by 1.2 percentage points per capita per year during 1995-2005, mainly from access to mobile telephony. Road network improvements made small growth contributions, while power sector inadequacy had a negative impact. Infrastructure improvements that matched those of Mauritius, the regional leader, could boost regional growth performance by 3 percentage points. SADC's 15 member countries include small, isolated economies with island states, a mix of low- and middle-income countries, and larger countries with potentially large economies. The economic geography reinforces the importance of regional infrastructure development to create a larger market and greater economic opportunities. The region's infrastructure indicators are high for Africa. The regional road network is well-developed, and surface transport is comparatively cheap, but subject to delays and long-haul fees. An extensive railway system competes directly with road transport. With integration and improvements, SADC's ports could form an effective transshipment network. Air transport, dominated by South Africa, is the best in Africa. Electricity in southern Africa is well developed; the region leads Africa in generation capacity and low rates, but access is limited. ICT services are the most accessible among the regions, though expensive. Landlocked countries still need to be connected, and greater competition is needed to reduce costs. Completing and maintaining SADC's infrastructure will require
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Zambia's infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure improvements contributed 0.6 percentage points to Zambia's annual per capital GDP growth over the past decade, mostly because of exponential growth in information and communication services. The power sector, by contrast, pulled the growth rate down by more than 0.1 percentage points. Improving Zambia's infrastructure endowment could boost growth by up to 2 percentage points per year. Zambia's relatively high generation capacity and power consumption are accompanied by fewer power outages than elsewhere in the region. But Zambia's power sector emphasizes the mining industry, while household electrification is about half that in other resource-rich countries. Zambia's power tariffs, among the lowest in Africa, are less than half the level needed to accelerate electrification and keep pace with mining sector demands. In power as in just about every other aspect of infrastructure, rural Zambians lag well behind their African peers. In a country where 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture for its livelihood, this represents a huge drag on the economy. Zambia would need to spend an average of
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (70 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ranganathan, Rupa ECCAS's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Sound infrastructure is fundamental for growth across the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). During 1995-2005, improvements in infrastructure boosted growth in Central Africa by 1 percentage point per capita annually, primarily due to the introduction and expansion of mobile telephony. Improved roads also made a small contribution. Conversely, inadequate power deterred growth to a greater degree than elsewhere in Africa. ECCAS must address a complex set of challenges. Economic activity takes place in isolated pockets separated by vast distances. Two countries are landlocked and dependent on regional corridors; seven countries have populations of under 10 million; and eight have economies that are smaller than
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  • 58
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel International Trade and Inclusive Growth
    Abstract: This note provides two analytical frameworks for understanding the role of trade in promoting inclusive growth in developing economies. A working definition of inclusive growth focuses on long-term, sustained growth associated with productivity growth and employment opportunities for broad portions of households and firms within countries. International integration can promote inclusive growth when workers and firms are able to adjust to enter into growing economic activities and adopt technologies availed through international trade. The frameworks described in this note build on simple household and firm choice models, which require only basic knowledge of development economics. The discussion highlights how these frameworks can help analysts focus on research and policy questions related to the impacts of international trade across the distribution of households and firms within countries. It also discusses publicly available data sets that can be used to explore some aspects of inclusive growth. In addition, the note highlights important caveats that need to be acknowledged by analysts and discusses avenues for future research, which needs to be part and parcel of the inclusive growth agenda
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arezki, Rabah The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices
    Abstract: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made a net contribution of only 0.3 percentage points to the improved per capita growth performance of Niger, one of the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost annual growth by about 4.5 percentage points, mainly by improving the condition of the road network. Niger has made significant progress in some areas of its infrastructure. Important reforms liberalizing the water supply and information and communication technology (ICT) sectors have boosted performance. In particular, reforms in urban water are among the most promising on the continent. Increased competition in the ICT market has contributed to the rapid expansion of mobile services. NIGELEC, the national power utility, has enhanced its performance. The Nigerien portions of regional corridors are in relatively good or fair condition. Air transport connectivity has improved. Niger has the potential to close this funding gap by tapping alternate sources of financing or adopting lower-cost technologies. There is plenty of room for private sector participation in Niger's infrastructure sectors, in particular ICT. Meanwhile, the adoption of alternate lower-cost technologies in the water supply, power, and road sectors would reduce the financing gap by almost a half (
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made an important contribution of 1.6 percentage point to Benin's improved per capita growth performance, which was the highest among West African countries during the period. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 3.2 percentage points. Benin has made significant progress in some areas of its infrastructure. The rural road network is in relatively good condition, and about 30 percent of the rural population has access to an all-season road, a level above the country's peers. Air transport connectivity has improved. Also, important market liberalization reforms designed to attract private capital to the water and information and communications technology (ICT) sectors have boosted performance. In particular, increased competition in the ICT market has contributed to the rapid expansion of mobile and Internet services. Addressing Benin's infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditures of
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  • 62
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Ethiopia's infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure contributed 0.6 percentage points to Ethiopia's annual per capita GDP growth over the last decade. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could add an additional 3 percentage points to infrastructure's contribution to growth. Ethiopia's infrastructure successes include developing Ethiopia Airlines, a leading regional carrier; upgrading its network of trunk roads; and rapidly expanding access to water and sanitation. The country's greatest infrastructure challenge lies in the power sector, where a further 8,700 megawatts of generating plant are needed over the next decade, implying a doubling of current capacity. The transport sector faces the challenges of low levels of rural accessibility and inadequate road maintenance. Ethiopia's ICT sector currently suffers from a poor institutional and regulatory framework. Addressing Ethiopia's infrastructure deficit will require a sustained annual expenditure of
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien The Democratic Republic of Congo's infrastructure
    Abstract: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces possibly the most daunting infrastructure challenge on the African continent. Conflict has seriously damaged most infrastructure networks. Vast geography, low population density, extensive forestlands, and criss-crossing rivers complicate the development of new networks. Progress has been made since the return of peace in 2003. A privately funded GSM network now provides mobile telephone signals to two-thirds of the population. External funding has been secured to rebuild the country's road network, and domestic air traffic has grown. Modest investments could harness inland waterways for low-cost transport. Much more substantial investments in hydropower would enable the DRC to meet its own energy demands cheaply while exporting vast quantities of power. One of the country's most immediate infrastructure challenges is to reform the national power utility and increase power generation and delivery. Capacity must increase by 35 percent over the period 2006-15 to meet domestic demand. The dilapidated condition of both road and rail infrastructure presents another challenge. To meet the target defined in the report, investment in the country's infrastructure must increase from
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Domínguez-Torres, Carolina Benin's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made an important contribution of 1.6 percentage points to Benin's improved per capita growth performance, which was the highest among West African countries during the period. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 3.2 percentage points. Benin has made significant progress in some areas of its infrastructure, including roads, air transport, water, and telecommunications. But the country still faces important infrastructure challenges, including improving road conditions and port performance and upgrading deteriorating electrical infrastructure. The nation must also improve the quality and efficiency of its water and sanitation systems. Benin currently spends about
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Domínguez-Torres, Carolina Niger's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made a net contribution of less than a third of a percentage point to the improved per capita growth performance of Niger, one of the lowest contributions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth in Niger by about 4.5 percentage points. Niger has made significant progress in some areas of its infrastructure, including water and telecommunications. But the country still faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, the most pressing of which is probably in the water and sanitation sector, as 82 percent of Nigeriens still practice open defecation, the highest in the continent. Niger also faces significant challenges in the power sector, as only 8 percent of the population is electrified. Niger currently spends about
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (75 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ranganathan, Rupa East Africa's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Sound infrastructure is critical for growth in East Africa. During 1995-2005, improvements in infrastructure boosted growth by one percentage point per year, due largely to wider access to information and communication technologies (ICTs). Although power infrastructure sapped growth in other regions of Africa, it contributed 0.2 percentage points per year growth in East Africa. If East Africa's infrastructure could be improved to the level of the strongest performing country in Africa (Mauritius), regional growth performance would be boosted by some six percentage points, with power making the strongest contribution. East Africa's infrastructure ranks behind that of southern and western Africa across a range of indicators, though in terms of access to improved sources of water and sanitation and Internet density, it is comparable with or superior to the subcontinent's leader, southern Africa. By contrast, density of fixed-line telephones, power generation capacity, and access to electricity remain extremely low, though utility performance is improving through regional power trades. The road network is relatively good, although with some lengths of poor-quality or unpaved roads. Surface transport is challenged by border crossings, port delays, slow travel, limited railways, and trade logistics, but the region has a relatively mature and competitive trucking industry. Air transport benefits from a strong hub-and-spoke structure but has made little progress toward market liberalization. Of the seven countries in the region, four are landlocked, two have populations of fewer than 10 million people, and two have an annual gross domestic product of less than
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made a modest net contribution of less than one percentage point to the improved per capita growth performance of the Central African Republic (CAR), despite high expenses in the road sector. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 3.5 percentage points. Assuming that the inefficiencies are fully captured, comparing spending needs against existing spending and potential efficiency gains leaves an annual funding gap of
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  • 68
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Côte d'Ivoire's infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure contributed 1.8 percentage points to Côte d'Ivoire's annual per capita GDP growth over the mid-2000s before conflict began to erase the country's infrastructure and its growth contributions. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to the level of the region's middle-income countries could boost the growth rate by a further 2 percentage points. Private sector contracts signed in the 1990s resulted in improved operational performance and funding for investments in the water, power, transport, and ICT sectors. Impressively, those contracts survived the crisis and delivered uninterrupted service. But private investment flows have decreased since the mid-2000s. Côte d'Ivoire's most pressing infrastructural challenge will be to regain the financial equilibrium needed to restore a reliable energy supply. Reestablishing the prominence of Abidjan's port will require investments in terminal capacity and road and rail infrastructure upgrades on hinterland linkages. The underfunding of road maintenance and poor sanitation are additional challenges. Côte d'Ivoire's annual infrastructure spending was
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  • 69
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Malawi's infrastructure
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Ghana's infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure contributed just over one percentage point to Ghana's annual per capital GDP growth during the 2000s. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost the annual growth rate by more than 2.7 percentage points. Ghana has an advanced infrastructure platform when compared with other low-income countries in Africa. The country's coverage levels for rural water, electricity, and GSM signals are impressive. A large share of the road network is in good or fair condition. Institutional reforms have been adopted in the ICT, ports, roads, and water supply sectors. Ghana's most pressing challenges lie in the power sector, where outmoded transmission and distribution assets, rapid demand growth, and periodic hydrological shocks leave the country reliant on high-cost oil-based generation. Exceptionally high losses in water distribution leave little to reach end customers, who are thus exposed to intermittent supplies. Addressing Ghana's infrastructure challenges will require raising annual expenditures to
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  • 71
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ranganathan, Rupa ECOWAS's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure improvements boosted growth in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by one percentage point per capita per year during 1995-2005, primarily thanks to growth in information and communication technology. Deficient power infrastructure held growth back by 0.1 percent. Raising the region's infrastructure to the level of Mauritius could boost growth by 5 percentage points. Overall, infrastructure in the 15 ECOWAS countries ranks consistently behind southern Africa across many indicators. However, there is parity in access to household services - water, sanitation, and power. ECOWAS has a well-developed regional road network, though sea corridors and ports need attention. Surface transport is expensive and slow, owing to cartelization, restrictive regulations, and delays. There is no regional rail network. Air transport has improved despite the lack of a strong hub-and-spoke structure. Safety remains a concern. Electrical power, the most expensive and least reliable in Africa, reaches 50 percent of the population but meets just 30 percent of demand. Regional power trading would bring substantial benefits if Guinea could become a hydropower exporter. Prices for critical ICT services are relatively high. Recent panregional initiatives have improved roaming. New projects are underway to provide access and improved services to unconnected countries. Completing and maintaining ECOWAS's infrastructure will require sustained spending of
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Foster, Vivien Nigeria's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure made a net contribution of around one percentage point to Nigeria's improved per capita growth performance in recent years, in spite of the fact that unreliable power supplies held growth back. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by around 4 percentage points. Among its African peers, Nigeria has relatively advanced power, road, rail, and ICT networks that cover the national territory quite extensively. Extensive reforms are ongoing in the power, ports, ICT, and domestic air transport sectors. But challenges persist. The power sector's operational efficiency and cost recovery has been among the worst in Africa, supplying about half of what is required, with subsequent social costs of about 3.7 percent of GDP. The water and sanitation sector has inefficient operations, with low and declining levels of piped water coverage. Irrigation development is also low relative to the country's substantial potential. In the transport sector, Nigeria's road networks are in poor condition from lack of maintenance, and the country has a poor record on air transport safety. Addressing Nigeria's infrastructure challenges will require sustained expenditure of almost
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dominguez-Torres, Carolina Cameroon's Infrastructure
    Abstract: The poor state of Cameroon's infrastructure is a key bottleneck to the nation's economic growth. From 2000 to 2005, improvements in information and communications technology (ICT) boosted Cameroon's growth performance by 1.26 percentage points per capita, while deficient power infrastructure held growth back by 0.28 points per capita. If Cameroon could improve its infrastructure to the level of Africa's middle-income countries, it could raise its per capita economic growth rate by about 3.3 percentage points. Cameroon has made significant progress in many aspects of infrastructure, implementing institutional reforms across a broad range of sectors with a view to attracting private-sector participation and finance, which has generally led to performance improvements. But the country still faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, including poor road quality, expensive and unreliable electricity, and a stagnating and uncompetitive ICT sector. Cameroon currently spends around
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  • 74
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pushak, Nataliya Angola's Infrastructure
    Abstract: Infrastructure made a net contribution of around 1 percentage point to Angola's improved per capita growth performance in recent years, despite unreliable power supplies and poor roads, which each holding back growth by 0.2 percentage points. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost Angola's annual growth by about 2.9 percentage points. As a resource-rich, postconflict country, Angola has shown an exceptionally strong commitment to financing the reconstruction and expansion of its infrastructure. It has recently expanded its generation capacity, embarked on an ambitious multibillion-dollar road rehabilitation program, begun to make investments aimed at easing congestion at the Port of Luanda, and embarked upon an ambitious rehabilitation program for urban water systems. Numerous challenges remain, however. Angola needs to upgrade its electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, expand its urban water-supply system, improve efficiency at the Port of Luanda, and make policy and regulatory adjustments across the board. Angola presently spends around
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pushak, Nataliya Sierra Leone's Infrastructure
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: The Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD) has gathered and analyzed extensive data on infrastructure in around 40 Sub-Saharan countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The results have been presented in reports covering different areas of infrastructure ICT, irrigation, power, transport, water and sanitation and different policy areas, including investment needs, fiscal costs, and sector performance. This report presents the key AICD findings for the DRC, allowing the country's infrastructure situation to be benchmarked against that of its African peers. Given that the DRC is a fragile state trying to catch up with other low-income countries (LICs) in the region, both fragile-state and LIC African benchmarks will be used to evaluate the DRC's situation. Detailed comparisons will also be made with immediate regional neighbors in Central Africa. Several methodological issues should be borne in mind. First, because of the cross-country nature of data collection, a time lag is inevitable. The period covered by the AICD runs from 2001 to 2006. Most technical data presented are for 2006 (or the most recent year available), while financial data are typically averaged over the available period to smooth out the effect of short-term fluctuations. Second, in order to make comparisons across countries, indicators had to be standardized to place the analysis on a consistent basis. This means that some of the indicators presented here may be slightly different from those that are routinely reported and discussed at the country level. During the period from 2001 to 2005, per capita economic growth in DRC was on average 2.1 percent higher than during the period from 1991 to 1995. Despite this improvement, growth levels, which oscillated between 4 and 8 percent in the early 2000s, still fell short of the sustained 7 percent per year needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Improved telecommunications infrastructure has been the main driver of this change, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the country's per capita growth rate. Deficiencies in power infrastructure, on the other hand, held back per capita growth by 0.25 percentage point over this period
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Infrastructure contribute ...
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  • 78
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Klinger, Bailey Export Discoveries, Diversification and Barriers To Entry
    Abstract: The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development has grown rapidly in recent years, partly due to the surprising finding that diversification rises with gross domestic product per capita up to a certain point. Export diversification along the extensive margin is inextricable from the introduction of new export products. The authors test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the introduction of new exports - export discoveries - under the assumption that the intensive and extensive margins of exports are correlated within broad country-industry groups. Econometric evidence from panel-data techniques that are appropriate for count data (the number of discoveries) suggests that discoveries within countries and industries rise with the growth of exports along the intensive margin (relative to the growth of non-export gross domestic product) but the magnitude of this partial correlation increases with domestic barriers to entry and with customs delays in exporting. However, the magnification effect of barriers to entry appears to be less significant as a determinant of total within-country export discoveries. This is consistent with inter-industry and within-country spillovers related to export discoveries, implying that barriers to entry enhance the effect of export growth on discoveries within country-industries but total discoveries might be unaffected by barriers to entry
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth
    Abstract: The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting - more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year - and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports, appear to be important sources of export growth. In fact, the smallest exporting firms experienced the fastest growth in their export values. Some of these results are compared with those from other countries that have been examined in related literature
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  • 80
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Liberia's 14-year civil war left much of the country's infrastructure shambles. The country's 170 megawatt power generation capacity and national grid were completely destroyed. In Monrovia, just 0.1 percent of households had access to electricity. According to the 2008 National Census, access to piped water fell from 15 percent of the population in 1986 to less than 3 percent in 2008. The national road network was left in severe disrepair. Peace brought many positive developments. The Freeport of Monrovia is now privately managed and has resumed normal operations. Essential rehabilitation work has been carried out, and the port's performance now matches that of neighboring ports along the West African coast. Liberia has also successfully liberalized its mobile telephone markets, with access surging to 40 percent in 2009, at some of the lowest prices in Africa. Despite the potential for private investment, Liberia will likely need more than a decade to reach the illustrative infrastructure targets outlined in this report. Under business-as-usual assumptions for spending and efficiency, it would take at least 40 years for Liberia to reach these goals. Yet with a combination of increased finance, improved efficiency, and cost-reducing innovations, it should be possible to significantly reduce that time
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world's knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. Infrastructure contributed 1.8 percentage points to Cote d'Ivoire's annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the mid-2000. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by a further two percentage points per capita. Cote d'Ivoire made major strides with respect to infrastructure during the 1990s. As a result, the country has broad-reaching national backbones in the road, energy, and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sectors, and relatively high levels of household coverage for utility services. However, much ground was lost to conflict in the mid-2000s. Very little investment has taken place in the last fifteen years, leading to recent power shortages, the deterioration of the road network, and the deceleration of progress on safe water access. Cote d'Ivoire's most pressing challenge will be to regain the financial equilibrium needed to restore a reliable energy supply. Reestablishing the prominence of Abidjan's port will require investments in terminal capacity, as well as road and rail infrastructure upgrades on hinterland linkages. The underfunding of road maintenance must also be addressed. Another challenge lies in sanitation, as it is currently unlikely that the country will meet the associated millennium development goal. This report presents the key AICD findings for Cote d'Ivoire, allowing the country's infrastructure situation to be benchmarked against that of its African peers. A social and economic crisis in Cote d'Ivoire has crippled its growth trajectory, which had been that of a middle-income country. It will therefore be compared to low-income countries (fragile and non-fragile groups) and middle-income countries, as well as immediate regional neighbors in West Africa. The study presented several methodological issues
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  • 82
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Infrastructure improvements contributed 0.6 percentage points to the annual per capita growth of Zambia's gross domestic product (GDP) over the past decade, mostly because of the exponential growth of information and communication technology (ICT) services. Poor performance of the power sector reduced the per capita growth rate by 0.1 percentage point. Simulations suggest that if Zambia's infrastructure platform could be improved to the level of the African leader, Mauritius, per capita growth rates could increase by two percentage points per year. Zambia's high generation capacity and relatively high power consumption are accompanied by fewer power outages than its neighbors. But Zambia's power sector is primarily oriented toward the mining industry, while household electrification, at 20 percent, is about half that in other resource-rich countries. Zambia's power tariffs are among the lowest in Africa and are less than half the level needed to accelerate electrification and keep pace with mining sector demands. Meeting future power demands and raising electrification rates will be difficult without increasing power tariffs. Zambia's infrastructure situation is more hopeful than that of many other African countries. Infrastructure spending needs, though large, are not beyond the realm of possibility, and Zambia's resource wealth and relatively well-off population provide a more solid financing basis than is available to many other countries. Zambia's infrastructure funding gap, though substantial, can be dramatically reduced through measures to stem inefficiencies and lower costs
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ying, Yvonne Cost Recovery, Equity, and Efficiency in Water Tariffs
    Abstract: Water and sanitation utilities in Africa operate in a high-cost environment. They also have a mandate to at least partially recover their costs of operations and maintenance (O&M). As a result, water tariffs are higher than in other regions of the world. The increasing block tariff (IBT) is the most common tariff structure in Africa. Most African utilities are able to achieve O&M cost recovery at the highest block tariffs, but not at the first-block tariffs, which are designed to provide affordable water to low-volume consumers, who are often poor. At the same time, few utilities can recover even a small part of their capital costs, even in the highest tariff blocks. Unfortunately, the equity objectives of the IBT structure are not met in many countries. The subsidy to the lowest tariff-block does not benefit the poor exclusively, and the minimum consumption charge is often burdensome for the poorest customers. Many poor households cannot even afford a connection to the piped water network. This can be a significant barrier to expansion for utilities. Therefore, many countries have begun to subsidize household connections. For many households, standposts managed by utilities, donors, or private operators have emerged as an alternative to piped water. Those managed by utilities or that supply utility water are expected to use the formal utility tariffs, which are kept low to make water affordable for low-income households. The price for water that is resold through informal channels, however, is much more expensive than piped water
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Microeconomic consequences and macroeconomic causes of foreign direct investment in southern African economies
    Abstract: The causes and consequences of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries remains a subject of debate among researchers and policymakers alike. The authors use international data and a new micro-data set of firms in thirteen Southern African Developing Countries (SADCs) to investigate the benefits and determinants of FDI in this region. FDI appears to have facilitated local development in the SADC region. Foreign firms tend to perform better than domestic firms, tend to be larger, are located in richer and better-governed countries and in countries with more competitive financial intermediaries, and they are more likely to export than domestic firms. They also exhibit positive spillover effects to domestic firms. Relying on a standard model to predict the country-level FDI inflows per capita, the authors find that SADC is attracting their expected level of FDI inflows, at least relative to its income level, human capital, demographic structure, institutions, and economic track record. There are some differences between SADC and the rest of the world in FDI behavior: in SADC, the income level is less important and openness more so. The authors use two comparison groups to compare with SADC to shed light on why other regions have attracted more FDI per capita than SADC. The factors that explain SADC’s low FDI inflows are economic fundamentals (e.g., previous growth rates, average income, phone density, and the adult share of population)
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Infrastructure contributed 1.2 percentage points to the annual per capita growth of Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) over the past decade, thanks mainly to the revolution in information and communication technology (ICT). Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could further boost annual growth by 3.5 percentage points per capita. Today, Malawi's basic infrastructure indicators look relatively good when compared with other low-income countries in Africa, although the performance of that infrastructure could be significantly improved. Malawi is one of the few African countries to have already reached the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for water, almost a decade ahead of the target. The private sector has made Global Management System (GSM) telephone signals widely available without public subsidy. A substantial road investment program has raised the average condition of the country's road network, and a foundation for institutional reform has been laid in the ICT, power, and road transport sectors. Even if those inefficiencies could be eliminated, Malawi will still face an infrastructure funding gap of almost
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  • 86
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Mientras varios paises de America Latina, el Caribe y otras regiones avanzan a la segunda fase de participacion privada en programas de infraestructura hay varias inquietudes que quedan por resolver respecto de los resultados de la primera fase. Estas preocupaciones hacen que los Gobiernos avancen con precaucion. "Impacto de la participacion del sector privado en infraestructura" aborda estas preocupaciones y aporta claridad al debate sobre el tema. La evaluacion de este efecto podria ser uno de los temas normativos mas emocionales de la economia, ya que esta rodeado de una nube de mitos, percepciones y realidad. Este libro analiza el impacto y destaca la verdad entre los mitos. Los autores dan una mirada sistematica y critica a los hechos (es decir, los datos) en America Latina, donde desde finales de los ochenta, muchos Gobiernos atrajeron al sector privado hacia la prestacion de servicios publicos fundamentales. Aunque existen muchas evaluaciones de esta experiencia, ninguna ha podido apoyarse en datos sistemicos, transversales entre paises y de series temporales, y salvo pocas excepciones, tampoco han logrado senalar lo que habria sucedido en ausencia de estas intervenciones (el contrafactual). Este libro hace precisamente eso. Reune una base de datos completa desde los anos 80 hasta la primera decada de este siglo y propone una metodologia solida y eficaz, que considera el contrafactual, probando y calculando el impacto de la reforma sobre un conjunto excepcionalmente amplio de indicadores de resultados. En consecuencia, el libro presenta el estudio mas detallado hasta la fecha de la experiencia de la participacion privada en America Latina y representa un paso importante de la bibliografia gracias a sus solidos analisis econometricos
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  • 87
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies Revisited
    Abstract: The number of national export promotion agencies has tripled over the past two decades. Although more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. The agencies were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's export promotion agencies and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. The results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. The identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as export promotion agencies are concerned, small is beautiful
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cusolito, Ana P Technology Adoption and Factor Proportions in Open Economies
    Abstract: Theories of international trade assume that all countries use similar and exogenous technologies in the production of any good. This paper relaxes this assumption. The marriage of literatures on biased technical change and trade yields a tractable theory, which predicts that differences in factor endowments and intellectual property rights bias technical change toward particular factor intensities, and thus unit factor input requirements can vary across economies. Using data on net exports of a single industry, computers, intellectual property rights and factor endowments for 73 countries during 1980-2000, the paper shows that once technological choices are considered, countries with different factor endowments can become net exporters of the same product
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wodon, Quentin Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Services in African Cities Due To Lack of Demand Or Lack of Supply?
    Abstract: A majority of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is not connected to electricity and piped water networks, and even in urban areas coverage is low. Lack of network coverage may be due to demand or supply-side factors. Some households may live in areas where access to piped water and electricity is feasible, but may not be able to pay for those services. Other households may be able to afford the services, but may live too far from the electric line or water pipe to have a choice to be connected to it. Given that the policy options for dealing with demand as opposed to supply-side issues are fairly different, it is important to try to measure the contributions of both types of factors in preventing better coverage of infrastructure services in the population. This paper shows how this can be done empirically using household survey data and provides results on the magnitude of both types of factors in explaining the coverage deficit of piped water and electricity services in urban areas for a large sample of African countries
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: To be credible, any plan for scaling up infrastructure in Africa must rest on a thorough evaluation of how fiscal resources are allocated and financed. Because in every plausible scenario the public sector retains the lion's share of infrastructure financing, with private participation remaining limited, a central purpose of such an evaluation is to identify where and how fiscal resources can be better used if not increased without jeopardizing macroeconomic and fiscal stability. The stakes are high, because the magnitude of Africa's infrastructure needs carries a commensurate potential for misuse of scarce fiscal resources. The authors analyze recent public expenditure patterns to identify ways to make more fiscal resources available for infrastructure. The authors do this in three ways. First, we quantify the level and composition of public spending on infrastructure so as to match fiscal allocations to the particular characteristics of individual subsectors and to countries' macroeconomic type (low-income fragile, low-income no fragile, oil-exporting, and middle-income). Second, the authors evaluate public budgetary spending for infrastructure against macroeconomic conditions to get a sense of the scope for making additional fiscal resources available based on actual allocation decisions in recent years. And, third, the authors look for ways to make public spending for infrastructure more efficient, so as to better use existing resources. Any exercise of this kind encounters data limitations. First, because it was not feasible to visit all sub national entities, some decentralized infrastructure expenditures probably have been underrepresented, with particular implications for the water sector. Second, it was not always possible to fully identify which items of the budget are financed by donors, and contributions by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to rural infrastructure projects are likely to have been missed completely. Third, it was not always possible to obtain full financial statements for all of the infrastructure special funds that the authors identified. Fourth, accurate recording of annual changes in fixed capital formation (capital expenditure) of State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remains a methodological challenge. Fifth, accurate measurement of existing public infrastructure stock will require further methodological development
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  • 91
    ISBN: 0821373080 , 0821373099 , 9780821373088 , 9780821373095
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxviii, 331 pages) , illustrations , 23 cm
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Latin American development forum series
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 337.8051
    Keywords: China Foreign economic relations ; India Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Specialization And Adjustment During The Growth of China And India
    Keywords: Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American economies. The authors construct Vollrath's measure of revealed comparative advantage by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This measure accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the revealed comparative advantage of Latin America and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of Latin A-with the exception of Mexico-has been moving in opposite direction of the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India's growth since 1990
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (#N/A p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Product Innovation By Incumbent Firms In Developing Economies
    Abstract: A model of firm innovation illustrates the effects of the threat of imitation and product varieties on a representative firm's decision to invest in research and development to produce new product varieties. The model motivates two empirical questions: (1) Is research and development partially correlated with firms' propensity to introduce new products or product innovation in developing countries? (2) Do trade policies and the national investment climate affect firms' propensity for product innovation? The econometric evidence suggests that the answers are yes and yes, but the investment climate affects product innovation in a manner that is consistent with the presence of market failures and state capture. National trade-policy distortions appear to reduce the probability of product innovation, and the density of exporting firms at the national level also seems to positively affect the propensity to introduce new products by individual firms. The paper discusses some policy implications
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Growth of China And India In World Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China's and to a large extent India's growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cravino, Javier Substitution Between Foreign Capital In China, India, The Rest of The World, And Latin America
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of the emergence of China and India on foreign capital stocks in other economies. Using bilateral data from 1990-2003 and drawing from the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprises to control for fundamental determinants of foreign capital stocks across countries, the evidence suggests that the impact of foreign capital in China and India on other countries' foreign capital stocks has been positive. This finding is robust to the use of ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators; to the inclusion of time and country-pair fixed effects; to the inclusion of natural-resource endowments; and to the use of the sum of foreign capital stocks in Hong Kong (China) and mainland China instead of using only the latter's foreign capital stocks. There is surprisingly weak evidence of substitution in manufacturing foreign capital stocks away from Central America and Mexico in favor of China, and from the Southern Cone countries to India, but these findings are not robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cravino, Javier Foreign Direct Investment In Latin America During The Emergence of China And India
    Keywords: Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics
    Abstract: In spite of the growing concerns about foreign direct investment being diverted from Latin America to China and India, the best available data show that Latin America has performed relatively well since 1997. Foreign capital stocks from OECD countries and the United States in particular in China and India are still far from those in the largest Latin American economies. The evidence shows that foreign capital stocks in China increased more than in Latin America during 1990-1997, but not as much since 1997. In fact, Latin America has actually performed better than China since 1997 given its lack of relative growth. The growth of foreign capital stocks in India was more stable than in China. Nonetheless, after controlling for shocks emanating from the source countries and bilateral distance between source and host countries, this paper finds a significant change in foreign capital stocks relative to China between 1990 and 1997, but no change relative to India
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  • 97
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (302 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Este informe brinda una evaluacion preliminar del acuerdo de libre comercio celebrado con America Central y Republica Dominicana (DR-CAFTA, por sus siglas en ingles), con especial atencion a tres temas principales: 1) los beneficios comerciales y no comerciales esperados, 2) las acciones que los paises de America Central necesitan adoptar para aprovechar las nuevas oportunidades y 3) la identificacion de los grupos de la poblacion que pueden requerir asistencia para adaptarse a un entorno mas competitivo. El documento coloca al DR-CAFTA en el contexto historico de las reformas economicas que se han implementado en los paises centroamericanos desde finales de la decada de 1980 y luego lo situa en el contexto actual. Asimismo, examina varios analisis que evaluan los impactos potenciales del DR-CAFTA en los paises de America Central e identifica las poblaciones que se veran posiblemente afectadas por la eliminacion de barreras al comercio en los productos agricolas sensibles, analizando las mejores opciones de politicas para ayudar a los grupos vulnerables. El informe tambien examina las pruebas asociadas con las implicaciones macroeconomicas principales del DR-CAFTA estudiando el potencial de perdida de ingreso y el efecto que podria tener sobre los patrones de sincronizacion del ciclo comercial y las pruebas de cada uno de los paises centroamericanos en las areas de facilitacion del comercio, reformas institucionales y normativas, ademas de en innovacion y educacion, con el proposito de identificar las principales prioridades de la agenda complementaria del DR-CAFTA
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies
    Keywords: Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy ; Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy ; Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: The number of national export promotion agencies (EPAs) has tripled over the past two decades. While more countries have made them part of their national export strategy, studies have criticized their efficiency in developing countries. Partly in reaction to these critiques, EPAs have been retooled (see ITC 1998 or 2000, for example). This paper studies the impact of existing EPAs and their strategies based on a new data set covering 104 industrial and developing countries. Results suggest that on average they have a strong and statistically significant impact on exports. For each
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  • 99
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (318 p)
    Series Statement: Directions in Development
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Si bien los subsidios a usuarios de servicios publicos son comunes tanto en el sector de agua como en el de electricidad, su eficacia para alcanzar y distribuir recursos a las personas mas pobres es objeto de amplio debate. Esta publicacion reune pruebas empiricas sobre el desempeno de los subsidios en diversos paises. El texto pone en evidencia la preponderancia de los subsidios a los usuarios, ofrece una tipologia de las muchas variantes que existen en el mundo en desarrollo y presenta varios indicadores utiles para evaluar la medida en la cual esos subsidios benefician a los pobres, con un enfoque en tres conceptos clave: incidencia en el beneficiario, incidencia del beneficio y valor material. Los hallazgos sobre el desempeno de los subsidios seran de utilidad para los encargados de formular politicas y para los profesionales del sector, quienes contemplan la posibilidad de introducir los subsidios, eliminarlos o modificarlos, y para aquellos que consideran que los subsidios a los usuarios de servicios publicos representan un instrumento de proteccion social
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Halpern, Jonathan Designing Direct Subsidies for Water and Sanitation Services Panama
    Keywords: Access To Cred Administrative Cost ; Administrative Costs ; Beneficiaries ; Beneficiary ; Check ; Customers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sustainability ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Housing Subsidy ; Interest ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Subsidies ; Subsidization ; Subsidy ; Subsidy Payments ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Total Costs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Subsidies ; Water Subsidy ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Worth ; Access To Cred Administrative Cost ; Administrative Costs ; Beneficiaries ; Beneficiary ; Check ; Customers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sustainability ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Housing Subsidy ; Interest ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Subsidies ; Subsidization ; Subsidy ; Subsidy Payments ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Total Costs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Subsidies ; Water Subsidy ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Worth
    Abstract: May 2000 - An alternative to traditional subsidies for water and sanitation services is direct subsidies - funds governments provide to cover part of the water bill for households that meet certain criteria. Issues associated with such a subsidy are analyzed through a case study of Panama. As an alternative to traditional subsidy schemes in utility sectors, direct subsidy programs have several advantages: they are transparent, they are explicit, and they minimize distortions of the behavior of both the utility and the customers. At the same time, defining practical eligibility criteria for direct subsidy schemes is difficult and identifying eligible households may entail substantial administrative costs. Foster, Gomez-Lobo, and Halpern, using a case study from Panama, discuss some of the issues associated with the design of direct subsidy systems for water services. They conclude that: · There is a need to assess - rather than assume - the need for a subsidy. A key test of affordability, and thus of the need for a subsidy, is to compare the cost of the service with some measure of household willingness to pay. · The initial assessment must consider the affordability of connection costs as well as the affordability of the service itself. Connection costs may be prohibitive for poor households with no credit, suggesting a need to focus subsidies on providing access rather than ongoing water consumption. · A key issue in designing a direct subsidy scheme is its targeting properties. Poverty is a complex phenomenon and difficult to measure. Eligibility must therefore be based on easily measurable proxy variables, and good proxies are hard to find. In choosing eligibility criteria for a subsidy, it is essential to verify what proportion of the target group fails to meet the criteria (errors of exclusion) and what proportion of nontarget groups is inadvertently eligible for the benefits (errors of inclusion). · Administrative costs are roughly the same no matter what the level of individual subsidies, so a scheme that pays beneficiaries very little will tend not to be cost-effective. It is important to determine what proportion of total program costs will be absorbed by administrative expenses. · Subsidies should not cover the full cost of the service and should be contingent on beneficiaries paying their share of the bill. Subsidies for consumption above a minimum subsistence level should be avoided. Subsidies should be provided long enough before eligibility is reassessed to avoid poverty trap problems. · The utility or concessionaire can be helpful in identifying eligible candidates because of its superior information on the payment histories of customers. It will also have an incentive to do so, since it has an interest in improving poor payment records. Thought should therefore be given at the design stage to the role of the service provider in the implementation of the subsidy scheme. · The administrative agency's responsibilities, the sources of funding, and the general principles guiding the subsidy system should have a clear legal basis, backed by regulations governing administrative procedures. · To reduce administrative costs and avoid duplication of effort, it would be desirable for a single set of institutional arrangements to be used to determine eligibility for all welfare and subsidy programs in a given jurisdiction, whether subnational or national. This paper - a product of the Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to evaluate and disseminate lessons of experience in designing policies to improve the quality and sustainability of infrastructure services and to enhance access of the poor to these basic services. The authors may be contacted at vfosterworldbank.org or jhalpern@worldbank.org
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