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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (3,152)
  • Würzburg UB  (113)
  • 2010-2014  (3,264)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (3,122)
  • Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
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  • 1
    Journal/Serial
    Journal/Serial
    Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden | Opladen : Leske + Budrich | Wiesbaden : VS, Verl. f. Sozialwiss. | Pfaffenweiler : Centaurus-Verl. ; 1.1991 -
    ISSN: 0935-7548 , 2628-8133
    Language: German
    Dates of Publication: 1.1991 -
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stadt, Raum und Gesellschaft
    DDC: 300
    Keywords: Monografische Reihe
    Note: Teilweise ungezählt
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
    ISBN: 9783658028695
    Language: German
    Pages: XV, 202 S. 44 Abb
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 306
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Keywords: Social sciences ; Neue Medien ; Kunstvermittlung ; Museum ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Museum ; Neue Medien ; Kunstvermittlung
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  • 3
    ISBN: 9783658043636
    Language: German
    Pages: VIII, 30 S.
    Series Statement: essentials
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 305.3
    Keywords: Social sciences ; Social work ; Developmental psychology
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
    ISBN: 9783658038717
    Language: German
    Pages: VII, 32 S.
    Series Statement: essentials
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 302.2
    Keywords: Social sciences
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  • 5
    ISBN: 9783658047306
    Language: German
    Pages: VII, 33 S. 1 Abb
    Series Statement: essentials
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 302.23
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Keywords: Social sciences ; Computer science
    URL: Cover
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    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
    ISBN: 9783658039967
    Language: German
    Pages: VI, 234 S. 114 Abb., 57 Abb. in Farbe
    Series Statement: Wissen, Kommunikation und Gesellschaft, Schriften zur Wissenssoziologie
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 301
    RVK:
    Keywords: Social sciences ; Social sciences Methodology ; Hermeneutik ; Visuelle Kommunikation ; Visuelle Medien ; Wissenssoziologie ; Wissen ; Ambivalenz ; Bildbetrachtung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Aufsatzsammlung ; Visuelle Medien ; Visuelle Kommunikation ; Bildbetrachtung ; Hermeneutik ; Wissen ; Ambivalenz ; Wissenssoziologie
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  • 7
    ISBN: 9783658053864
    Language: German
    Pages: IX, 39 S. 1 Abb
    Series Statement: essentials
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 306
    Keywords: Social sciences ; Quality of Life ; Quality of Life Research
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
    ISBN: 9783658040062
    Language: German
    Pages: VII, 23 S.
    Series Statement: essentials
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 302.2
    RVK:
    Keywords: Social sciences
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Saleman, Yannick The Implementation of Industrial Parks
    Abstract: Industrial parks are as popular as they are controversial, in India and globally. At their best they align infrastructure provision and agglomeration economies to jolt industrial growth. More often, they generate negative spill-overs, provide handouts, sit empty, or simply do not get built. This paper disaggregates how parks are built and how they fail. It contextualizes parks in India, followed by a thick case study of an innovative scheme that appears to buck the trend. This performance is then explained by the way in which the scheme's design and action fit India's political economy. The paper concludes by considering how the analysis and the lessons learned might inform the design and implementation of industrial park programs and other public interventions, in India and elsewhere
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McCarthy, Nancy The Nexus between Gender, Collective Action for Public Goods, and Agriculture
    Abstract: Across the developing world, public goods exert significant impacts on the local rural economy in general and agricultural productivity and welfare outcomes in particular. Economic and social-cultural heterogeneity have, however, long been documented as detrimental to collective capacity to provide public goods. In particular, women are often under-represented in local leadership and decision-making processes, as are young adults and minority ethnic groups. While democratic principles dictate that broad civic engagement by women and other groups could improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governance and increase public goods provision, the empirical evidence on these hypotheses is scant. This paper develops a theoretical model highlighting the complexity of constructing a "fair" schedule of individual contributions, given heterogeneity in costs and benefits that accrue to people depending, for instance, on their gender, age, ethnicity, and education. The model demonstrates that representative leadership and broad participation in community organizations can mitigate the negative impacts of heterogeneity on collective capacity to provide public goods. Nationally-representative household survey data from Malawi, combined with geospatial and administrative information, are used to test this hypothesis and estimate the relationship between collective capacity for public goods provision and community median estimates of maize yields and household consumption expenditures per capita. The analysis shows that similarities between the leadership and the general population, in terms of gender and age, and active participation by women and young adults in community groups alleviate the negative effects of heterogeneity and increase collective capacity, which in turn improves agricultural productivity and welfare
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nose, Manabu Triggers of Contract Breach
    Abstract: This paper constructs a large contract-level data set to examine factors that trigger breach of foreign investment contracts. Similar to the case of outright expropriation, political regime type is an important determinant of breach of contract. Furthermore, although investors' bargaining power becomes obsolete as contracts mature, contracts can be designed to mitigate the risk of breach of contract by involving multilateral organizations and creating buffers to absorb commodity price shocks. The paper examines the type of countries prone to contract breaches. After controlling for regional and sector fixed effects, less-democratic and resource-dependent governments are more likely to breach contracts, especially after large global shocks, notably natural disasters
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ehrhart, Hélène Does Migration Foster Exports?
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the impact of migration on export performance and more particularly the effect of African migrants on African trade. Relying on a new data set on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, the authors estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with endogeneity. The results first indicate that the pro-trade effect of migration is higher for African countries, a finding that can be partly explained by the substitution between migrants and institutions (the existence of migrant networks compensating for weak contract enforcement, for instance). This positive association is particularly important for the exports of differentiated products, suggesting that migrants also play an important role in reducing information costs. Moreover, focusing on intra-African trade, the pro-trade effect of African migrants is larger when migrants are established in a more geographically and ethnically distant country. All these findings highlight the ability of African migrants to help overcome some of the main barriers to African trade: the weakness of institutions, information costs, cultural differences, and lack of trust
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Martins, Pedro Structural Change in Ethiopia
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the Ethiopian economy is undergoing a virtuous process of structural change. In particular, it assesses the relative contributions of within-sector and between-sector productivity to output per capita growth. Based on data disaggregated into eight sectors for the period 1996-2011, the analysis suggests that the structure of output has changed considerably-predominantly from agriculture to services-but changes in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Labor productivity growth has been strong across most sectors, albeit mainly driven by within-sector productivity improvements. Nonetheless, the pace of structural change is accelerating and its relative contribution to output growth is increasing
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calderón, César Ride the Wild Surf
    Abstract: Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P Trade Policy Instruments over Time
    Abstract: This paper surveys political-economic research on the variety of instruments that governments use to conduct international trade policy. It presents key insights on the relationships between instruments such as tariffs, quotas, voluntary export restraints, and other nontariff barriers, as well as the ebb and flow of the national use of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards. The survey examines trends in use of these trade policy instruments over recent history; and it reviews the major theoretical and empirical explanations behind, and interrelationships between, their uses. Finally, the paper highlights potential institutional impacts of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and subsequent World Trade Organization (WTO) on choice of policy instruments, as well as how multilateral, unilateral, and preferential tariff liberalization may introduce political-economic shocks and affect incentives over time for how governments rely on different instruments
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Didier, Tatiana Financial Development in Asia
    Abstract: This paper documents the major trends in financial development in Asia since the early 1990s and the spillovers to firms. It compares Asia with advanced and emerging countries and uses both aggregate and disaggregate indicators. Financial systems in Asia remain less developed than in advanced countries but more developed than in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Bond and stock markets play a larger role and institutional investors have gained importance. Nonetheless, capital-raising activity has not expanded. A few large companies capture most of the issuances. Many secondary markets remain illiquid. The public sector captures a significant share of bond markets. The largest advancements in Asia occurred in China and India. But still in these countries, few large companies use capital markets to expand and grow, becoming much larger than nonuser firms. In sum, Asia's financial systems remain less developed than aggregate measures suggest, with few spillovers to many firms
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aguilar, Arturo Decomposition of Gender Differentials in Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia
    Abstract: This paper employs decomposition methods to analyze differences in agricultural productivity between male and female land managers in Ethiopia. It employs data from the 2011-2012 Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey. An overall 23.4 percent gender differential in agricultural productivity is estimated at the mean in favor of male land managers, of which 10.1 percentage points are explained by differences in land manager characteristics, land attributes, and unequal access to resources (the endowment effect). The remaining 13.4 percentage points are explained by unequal returns to productive components, but cannot be easily tied to specific covariates. These results are mainly driven by non-married female managers (mainly single and divorced). Married female managers do not display such disadvantages. Further analysis along the productivity distribution reveals that gender differentials are more pronounced at mid-levels of productivity and that the share of the gender gap explained by the endowment effect declines as productivity increases. Detailed decomposition of estimates at selected points of the agricultural productivity distribution provides valuable information for policy intervention purposes
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 Seiten)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hallegatte, Stephane Economic Resilience
    Abstract: The welfare impact of a disaster does not only depend on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Welfare impacts also depend on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct and therefore to minimize aggregate consumption losses. This ability can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience to natural disasters. Macroeconomic resilience has two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of immediate production losses for a given amount of asset losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover. Welfare impacts also depend on micro-economic resilience, which depends on the distribution of losses; on households' vulnerability, such as their pre-disaster income and ability to smooth shocks over time with savings, borrowing, and insurance, and on the social protection system, or the mechanisms for sharing risks across the population. The (economic) welfare disaster risk in a country can be reduced by reducing the exposure or vulnerability of people and assets (reducing asset losses), increasing macroeconomic resilience (reducing aggregate consumption losses for a given level of asset losses), or increasing microeconomic resilience (reducing welfare losses for a given level of aggregate consumption losses). The paper proposes rules of thumb to estimate macroeconomic and microeconomic resilience based on the relevant parameters in the economy. It also provides a toolbox of policies to increase macro- or micro-economic resilience and a list of indicators that can be used to build a resilience indicator
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Skoufias, Emmanuel Electoral Accountability and Local Government Spending in Indonesia
    Abstract: This paper takes advantage of the exogenous phasing of direct elections in districts and applies the double-difference estimator to measure impacts on (i) human development outcomes and (ii) the pattern of public spending and revenue generation at the district level. The analysis reveals that four years after the switch to direct elections, there have been no significant effects on human development outcomes. However, the estimates of the impact of Pilkada on health expenditures at the district level suggest that directly elected district officials may have become more responsive to local needs at least in the area of health. The composition of district expenditures changes considerably during the year and sometimes the year before the elections, shifting toward expenditure categories that allow incumbent district heads running as candidates in the direct elections to "buy" voter support. Electoral reforms did not lead to higher revenue generation from own sources and had no effect on the budget surplus of districts with directly elected heads
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo Income and Energy Consumption in Mexican Households
    Abstract: The analysis of household energy consumption patterns is critical for evaluating public mechanisms, such as subsidies and social tariffs that aim to provide lower income earners with better access to energy sources. This paper focuses on Mexican households to analyze the relations between their levels of income, consumption of different forms of energy, and the role played by different household characteristics. Using microdata from the Mexican Income Expenditure Surveys, the paper first relate income and energy expenditure to determine the shape of this relation. It then applies OLS and Tobit models to determine how income levels affect energy consumption in relation to other covariates. The results show a positive relation for income deciles and energy consumption and some household characteristics-pointing to differentiated mechanisms for improving energy use
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khwaja, Munawer Sultan Revenue Potential, Tax Space, and Tax Gap
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the key determinants of the revenue generating potential in 61 countries. The paper uses a broad set of data and econometric methods to conduct analyses that are of relevance to revenue potential. Earlier studies have not distinguished between the revenue potential based on economic fundamentals of countries and that based on what the legal framework prescribes. This study uses a dual approach to revenue potential to examine the issue. Two sets of variables are used, one related to the intrinsic economic structure and strength of countries that affect revenue potential and the other related to tax policy variables. Accordingly the analysis finds two sets of revenue potentials: one can be termed “revenue potential (economic),” and the other “revenue potential (legal).” The difference between the revenue potential (legal) and the actual revenue collected is commonly understood as the “tax gap.” The difference between the revenue potential (economic) and the actual revenue collected can be termed the “tax space,” the amount of revenue that a country can afford to collect, given its economic strength, not based on what the parliament has mandated. The results show that legally mandated revenue potentials in countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are often higher than the revenue potential based on what the country's economic fundamentals can afford. The paper also makes use of a tax effort index and finds that although many countries are performing close to the revenue potential (economic), it is more difficult to match up to the revenue potential (legal). The relationship between the revenue potential and the shadow economy, value added tax productivity, and some other determinants are examined to test whether some countries are taxing beyond their means
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Accountability Study
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: The Philippines has made an impressive progress in consumer protection in the banking sector, as shown by the wide range of laws and of regulatory instruments, their active use and enforcement, and by provision of complaint resolution services. The 2013 Global Survey on Financial Consumer Protection indicated that the Philippines compares well with the other economies and yet there is space for further strengthening of the financial consumer protection framework. In order to improve access to financial services, their usage and quality, and further deepen the financial sector, the Philippines has to design and implement a sound financial consumer protection regime with prudential regulation and supervision. This World Bank's Diagnostic Review was undertaken in response to a request from the Bangko Sentral ng Philipinas (BSP). It provides a detailed assessment of the consumer protection framework in the banking sector, with a particular focus on debit and credit products provided by BSP regulated banks. The review addresses the following areas: 1. Institutional Arrangements, 2. Legal and Regulatory Framework, 3. Transparency and Disclosure, 4. Business Practices, 5. Complaints Handling and Dispute Resolution Mechanisms, and 6. Consumer Awareness and Financial Literacy. Volume I summarizes the key findings and recommendations and Volume II provides comparison with the World Bank`s Good Practices for Financial Consumer Protection
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andrés, Luis Infrastructure Gap in South Asia
    Abstract: If the South Asia region hopes to meet its development goals and not risk slowing down or even halting growth, poverty alleviation, and shared prosperity, it is essential to make closing its huge infrastructure gap a priority. Identifying and addressing gaps in the data on expenditure, access, and quality are crucial to ensuring that governments make efficient, practical, and effective infrastructure development choices. This study addresses this knowledge gap by focusing on the current status of infrastructure sectors and geographical disparities, real levels of investment and private sector participation, deficits and proper targets for the future, and bottlenecks to expansion. The findings show that the South Asia region needs to invest between US
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Environmental and social responsibility is becoming more and more important in today's global economy. There are thousands of environmental and social codes and standards in the world today. The codes and standards define the rules and the objectives. But the challenge is in the implementation. An environmental and social management system (ESMS) helps companies to integrate the rules and objectives into core business operations, through a set of clearly defined, repeatable processes. This handbook is intended to be a practical guide to help companies in the food and beverage industry develop and implement an environmental and social management system, which should help to improve overall operations. Sections I and II provide background on ESMS in the food and beverage industry. Section III provides step-by-step instructions on how to develop and implement an ESMS. For more publications on IFC Sustainability please visit www.ifc.org/sustainabilitypublications
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Accountability Study
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This diagnostic study was undertaken by the World Bank in response to a request from Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), the Indonesian Financial Services Authority, and Bank Indonesia, the nation's central bank. Indonesia's financial sector has a lot of growth potential considering the relatively low volume of domestic credit provided by the private sector - just 43 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012. To steer the growth to sustainability, the Indonesian authorities have emphasized financial consumer protection in the 5 pillars of Indonesia's national strategy for financial inclusion. This review aims to assist Indonesia in developing and implementing its national strategy and provides a detailed assessment of the consumer protection framework in six segments of Indonesia's financial sector: banking, securities, insurance, non-bank credit institutions, private pensions, and credit reporting. This study also informed the design of the World Bank's support program for Indonesia under the financial inclusion support framework (FISF) initiative. The review addresses the following issues: (1) institutional arrangements, (2) legal and regulatory framework, (3) transparency and disclosure, (4) business practices, (5) complaints handling and dispute resolution mechanisms, and (6) consumer awareness and financial literacy. Volume I summarizes the key findings and recommendations and volume II assesses each financial sector segment with regard to the good practices for financial consumer protection
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other Poverty Study
    Abstract: The current report is part of the work on integrating poor areas and marginalized communities in Romania. Specifically, the Bank's technical assistance provided through this project focuses on three primary components: (1) a methodology for defining different types of urban disadvantaged communities based on a set of key criteria and indicators; (2) detailed maps that present the spatial distribution of these indicators and the corresponding types of marginalized communities; and (3) strategies for integrating these communities in the form of an integrated intervention tool and six conceptual pilots. The atlas presents the methodology used to define different types of urban disadvantaged areas as well as urban pockets of urban marginalization where deprivation is most severe. It identifies criteria and sets of indicators for each type that enable their identification and spatial location using the 2011 population census data. The atlas also produces the results of an analysis to determine the rate of urban marginalization in Romania and the characteristics of urban marginalized communities. Lastly, the atlas presents a series of maps at the city and town, county and regional level that present the spatial distribution of disadvantaged areas and marginalized communities, based on data from the 2011 population and housing census and information collected directly from municipalities
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Collier, Paul Housing and Urbanization in Africa
    Abstract: The accumulation of decent housing matters both because of the difference it makes to living standards and because of its centrality to economic development. The consequences for living standards are far-reaching. In addition to directly conferring utility, decent housing improves health and enables children to do homework. It frees up women's time and enables them to participate in the labor market. More subtly, a home and its environs affect identity and self-respect. Commentary on the emergence of an African middle class has become common, but it is being defined in terms of discretionary spending and potential for consumer markets. A politically more salient definition of a middle class will be in terms of home ownership and the consequent stake in economic stability. This paper examines why such a process has not happened in Africa. The hypothesis is that the peculiarity of housing exposes it to multiple points of vulnerability not found together either in private consumer goods or in other capital goods. Each point of vulnerability can be addressed by appropriate government policies, but addressing only one or two of them has little payoff if the others remain unresolved. Further, the vulnerabilities faced by housing are the responsibility of distinct branches of government, with little natural collaboration. Unblocking multiple impediments to housing therefore requires coordination that can come only from the head of government: ministries of housing have neither the political weight nor the analytic capacity to play this role effectively. Yet in Africa, housing has never received such high political priority. This in turn is because the centrality of housing in well-being and of housing investment in development has not been sufficiently appreciated
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Avdeenko, Alexandra International Interventions to Build Social Capital
    Abstract: Over the past decade the international community, especially the World Bank, has conducted programs to increase local public service delivery in developing countries by improving local governing institutions and creating social capital. This paper evaluates one such program in Sudan to answer the question: Can the international community change the grassroots civic culture of developing countries to increase social capital? The paper offers three contributions. First, it uses lab-in-the-field measures to focus on the effects of the program on pro-social preferences without the confounding influence of any program- induced changes on local governing institutions. Second, it tests whether the program led to denser social networks in recipient communities. Based on these two measures, the effect of the program was a precisely estimated zero. However, in a retrospective survey, respondents from program communities characterized their behavior as being more pro-social and their communities more socially cohesive. This leads to a third contribution of the paper: it provides evidence for the hypothesis, stated by several scholars in the literature, that retrospective survey measures of social capital over biased evidence of a positive effect of these programs. Regardless of one's faith in retrospective self-reported survey measures, the results clearly point to zero impact of the program on pro-social preferences and social network density. Therefore, if the increase in self-reported behaviors is accurate, it must be because of social sanctions that enforce compliance with pro-social norms through mechanisms other than the social networks that were measured
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woolcock, Michael Culture, Politics, and Development
    Abstract: Whether in the domains of scholarship or practice, important advances have been made in recent years in our understanding of how culture, politics, and development interact. Today's leading theorists of culture and development represent a fourth distinctive perspective vis-à-vis their predecessors, one that seeks to provide an empirically grounded, mechanisms-based account of how symbols, frames, identities, and narratives are deployed as part of a broader repertoire of cultural "tools" connecting structure and agency. A central virtue of this approach is less the broad policy prescriptions to which it gives rise-indeed, to offer such prescriptions would be something of a contradiction in terms-than the emphasis it places on making intensive and extensive commitments to engaging with the idiosyncrasies of local contexts. Deep knowledge of contextual realities can contribute constructively to development policy by enabling careful intra-country comparisons to be made of the conditions under which variable responses to otherwise similar problems emerge. Such knowledge is also important for discerning the generalizability (or "external validity") of claims regarding the efficacy of development interventions, especially those overtly engaging with social, legal, and political issues
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khandker, Shahidur R Does Institutional Finance Matter for Agriculture?
    Abstract: Smallholder agriculture in many developing countries has remained largely self-financed. However, improved productivity for attaining greater food security requires better access to institutional credit. Past efforts to extend institutional credit to smaller farmers has failed for several reasons, including subsidized operation of government-aided credit schemes. Thus, recent efforts to expand credit for smallholder agriculture that rely on innovative credit delivery schemes at market prices have received much policy interest. However, thus far the impacts of these efforts are not fully understood. This study examines credit for smallholder agriculture in the context of Uganda, where agriculture is about 35 percent of gross domestic product, most farmers are smallholders, and the country has introduced policies since 2005 to extend credit access to the sector. The analysis uses newly available household panel data from Uganda for 2005-2006 and 2009-2010 to examine (a) whether credit effectively targets agriculture, by examining determinants of borrowing across different sources; (b) agricultural and nonagricultural determinants of supply and demand credit constraints among non-borrowers; and (c) the effects of borrowing and credit constraints on household income, consumption, and agricultural outcomes. The analysis finds that although not many households report borrowing specifically for agriculture, credit is fungible and agricultural outcomes do substantially improve with institutional borrowing, particularly microcredit. Among non-borrowers, supply and demand credit constraints have fallen considerably over the period, particularly in rural areas. Access to institutions and infrastructure play a strong role in alleviating the negative effect of credit constraints on welfare outcomes, as well as determining the source of lending among borrowing households
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dixit, Avinash How Business Community Institutions Can Help Fight Corruption
    Abstract: This paper considers the possibility of collective action by the business community to counter corruption in the award of government licenses and contracts. The analogy is with contract enforcement institutions studied by economic historians and contract law scholars. The institution in this context comprises a no-bribery norm, a community system to detect violations, and a multilateral ostracism penalty upon conviction in a community tribunal. The requirements such an institution must meet if it is to be effective are analyzed. It is shown that an institution of sufficient quality-combining probability of correct detection and severity of punishment-can eliminate bribery. If the private institution is not sufficiently good, then in conjunction with the state's formal apparatus it reduces the level of bribes demanded, but increases the probability of winning the license or contract through bribery. An improvement in the government's formal anti-corruption mechanism, holding the private institution constant, reduces both the level of bribes and the probability of success through bribery. The two institutions together are shown to achieve substantially better outcomes than either can on its own
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P Trade Flows and Trade Disputes
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new data set and establishes a set of basic facts and patterns regarding the trade that countries fight about under World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paper characterizes the scope of products, as well as the levels of and changes to the trade values, market shares, volumes, and prices for those goods that eventually become subject to WTO litigation. The first result is striking heterogeneity in the level of market access at stake across disputes: for example, 14 percent of cases over disputed import products feature bilateral trade that is less than
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Timmer, Marcel P Fragmentation, Incomes, and Jobs
    Abstract: Increasing fragmentation of production across borders is changing the nature of international competition. As a result, conventional indicators of competitiveness based on gross exports are becoming less informative and new measures are needed. This paper proposes an ex-post accounting framework of the value added and workers that are directly and indirectly related to the production of final manufacturing goods. The framework focuses on manufactures global value chain income and manufactures global value chain jobs. The paper outlines these concepts and provides trends in European countries based on a recent multi-sector, input-output model of the world economy. The analysis finds that since 1995, revealed comparative advantage of the European Union 27 is shifting to activities related to the production of nonelectrical machinery and transport equipment. The workers involved in manufactures global value chains are increasingly in services, rather than manufacturing industries. The analysis also finds a strong shift toward activities carried out by high-skilled workers, highlighting the uneven distributional effects of fragmentation. The results show that a global value chain perspective is needed to inform the policy debates on competitiveness
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de la Torre, Augusto Can Latin America Tap the Globalization Upside?
    Abstract: This paper discusses the theoretical arguments in favor of and against economic globalization and, with a view to ascertaining whether Latin America may be able to capture the globalization upside, examines the trends and salient features of Latin America's globalization as compared with that of Southeast Asia. The paper focuses on trade and financial integration as well as the aggregate demand structures (domestic demand-driven versus external demand-driven) that underpin the globalization process. It finds that Latin America is mitigating some bad side effects of financial globalization by moving toward a safer form of international financial integration and improving its macro-financial policy frameworks. Nonetheless, Latin America's progress in raising the quality of its international trade integration has been scant. The region's commodity-heavy trade structures and relatively poor quality of trade connectivity can hinder growth potential to the extent that they are less conducive to technology and learning spillovers. Moreover, Latin America's domestic demand-driven growth pattern (a reflection of relatively low domestic savings) may become an additional drag to growth by accentuating the risk of a low savings-low external competitiveness trap
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Prennushi, G Women's Empowerment and Socio-Economic Outcomes
    Abstract: The paper explores whether one of the largest programs in the world for women's empowerment and rural livelihoods, the Indira Kranti Patham in Andhra Pradesh, India, has had an impact on the economic and social wellbeing of households that participate in the program. The analysis usespanel data for 4,250 households from two rounds of a survey conducted in 2004 and 2008 in five districts. Propensity score matching was used to construct control groups and outcomes are compared with differences-in-differences. There are two major impacts. First, the Indira Kranti Patham program increased participants' access to loans, which allowed them to accumulate some assets (livestock and durables for the poorest and nonfarm assets for the poor), invest in education, and increase total expenditures (for the poorest and poor). Women who participated in the program had more freedom to go places and were less afraid to disagree with their husbands; the women participated more in village meetings and their children were slightly more likely to attend school. Consistent with the emphasis of the program on the poor, the impacts were stronger across the board for the poorest and poor participants and were more pronounced for long-term Scheduled Tribe participants. No significant differences are found between participants and nonparticipants in some maternal and child health indicators. Second, program participants were significantly more likely to benefit from various targeted government programs, most important the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, but also midday meals in schools, hostels, and housing programs. This was an important way in which the program contributed to the improved wellbeing of program participants. The effects captured by the analysis accrue to program participants over and above those that may accrue to all households in program villages
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Nicola, Francesca Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time?
    Abstract: The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gajwani, Kiran Gender and Public Goods Provision in Tamil Nadu's Village Governments
    Abstract: Using data from 144 village-level governments in India's Tamil Nadu state, this paper investigates political reservations for women and whether the gender of village government leaders influences the provision of village public goods. A knowledge test of village government presidents and a survey about the interaction between village presidents and higher-level officials reveal that female village government presidents have much lower knowledge of the village government system than do their male counterparts and have significantly less contact with higher-level government officials. Although male and female presidents provide similar amounts of some public goods, there is strong evidence that village governments led by a woman built fewer schools and roads-two public goods that require relatively more contact and coordination with higher-level officials
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Artuc, Erhan Export Performance and Geography in Croatia
    Abstract: This paper uses the gravity model to analyze whether the varying export performance of Croatian counties can be explained by their proximity to border gates, ports, and other county-specific characteristics. The analysis finds that longer distances to border gates increase trade frictions significantly for many product categories, although these frictions have been decreasing between 2007 and 2012. The paper analyzes the county specific factors that are associated with variation in export performance, net of distance. Results show that exports are strongly and positively correlated with motorway and road density, the size of the labor force, low-skill ratio, and the number of patents. These variables are also associated with a greater diversity of exports in terms of products and destinations. Several general policy implications are highlighted. The significant association between motorway and road density and export volume, number of destinations, as well as the diversity of exported products may indicate that improvements in connectivity and facilitation of transport could still play a significant role in enhancing regional trade outcomes. Similarly, good performance in research and development may significantly help to spur competitiveness and allow local producers to enter new markets in products and destinations, which in turn can increase the level of diversification and boost resilience to global economic shocks
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  • 40
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Geli, Patricia Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings
    Abstract: A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (12 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Amin, Mohammad Use of Imported Inputs and the Cost of Importing
    Abstract: For a representative sample of manufacturing firms in 26 countries, this paper shows that changes in the cost of importing over time are significantly and negatively correlated with changes in the percentage of firms' material inputs that are of foreign origin. Furthermore, the paper shows that there may be a nonlinear relationship between import costs and imports. These findings are important, as recent studies point toward a significant positive effect of imported inputs on productivity and growth. It is hoped that the present paper inspires more work on the determinants of the use of imported inputs, especially in developing countries
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Moretti, Enrico Are Cities the New Growth Escalator?
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Kommunalverwaltung ; Stadt ; Entwicklung ; Agglomerationseffekt
    Abstract: Urban areas tend to have much more productive labor and higher salaries than rural areas, and there are vast differences across urban areas. Areas with high salaries and high productivity tend to have employers that invest in much more research and development than areas with low salaries and low productivity. This paper addresses two questions. First, it discusses the causes of these vast geographical differences in wages, human capital, and innovation. The second part of the paper discusses regional economic development policies. The European Union has an even more ambitious program transferring its development funds to regions with below average incomes. Asian countries, especially China, have a variety of special economic zones, designed to attract foreign investment to specific areas. Such regional development policies, often called place-based economic policies, are effectively a form of welfare, targeting cities or regions, not individuals. While such policies are widespread, the economic logic behind them is rarely discussed and even less frequently understood. This paper clarifies when these policies are wasteful, when they are efficient, and who the expected winners and losers are. Understanding when government intervention makes sense and when it does not is a crucial first step in setting sound economic development policies. Local governments can certainly lay a foundation for economic development and create all the conditions necessary for a city's rebirth, including a business climate friendly to job creation
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stewart, Fiona Proving Incentives for Long-Term Investment by Pension Funds
    Abstract: A fundamental goal of any pension system is to ensure that members receive an adequate income when they retire. Although traditional defined benefit pension plans set out how pension income will be determined in advance and then strive to deliver this, the growing number of defined contribution plans accumulate a sum of assets which can then be turned into a pension income on retirement. However, the amount of this retirement income is not predefined This frequently leads to a focus by not only most pension providers, but also regulators and pension plan members themselves on the short-term accumulation of pension assets rather than the longer-term goal of securing an adequate retirement income. This paper discusses a possible solution to this challenge: the use of benchmarks to encourage pension funds to invest with the longer-term goal of delivering adequate retirement income in mind. Examples are provided of leading pension funds that already work with long-term, outcome-based benchmarks. The paper suggests a methodology for pension regulators to use in order to incentivize pension funds in their jurisdictions to adopt a similar approach
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sun, Xiaojie The Impact of a Pay-for-Performance Scheme on Prescription Quality in Rural China
    Abstract: In China, health care providers have traditionally been paid fee-for-service and overprescribing and high out-of-pocket spending are common. In this study, township health centers in two counties were assigned almost randomly to two groups: in one, fee-for-service was replaced by a global capitated budget; in the other, by a mix of global capitated budget and pay-for-performance. Performance captured inter alia "irrational" drug prescribing; 20 percent of the global capitated budget was withheld each quarter, points were deducted for failure to meet targets, and some of the withheld budget was returned in line with the points deducted. Outcomes included appropriate prescribing and prescription cost, data on which were obtained by digitizing prescriptions from a month just before the reform and from the same month a year later. Impacts were assessed via multivariate differences-in-differences with township health center fixed effects. To reduce bias from non-randomness in assignment, the sample was trimmed by coarsened exact matching. Pay-for-performance reduced inappropriate prescribing significantly and substantially in the county where the initial level was above the penalty threshold, but end-line rates were still appreciable; no effects were seen in the county where initial levels were around or below the threshold, or on out-of-pocket spending in either county
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Arcangelis, Giuseppe Directing Remittances to Education with Soft and Hard Commitments
    Abstract: This paper tests how migrants' willingness to remit changes when given the ability to direct remittances to educational purposes using different forms of commitment. Variants of a dictator game in a lab-in-the-field experiment with Filipino migrants in Rome are used to examine remitting behavior under varying degrees of commitment. These range from the soft commitment of simply labeling remittances as being for education, to the hard commitment of having funds directly paid to a school and the student's educational performance monitored. The analysis finds that the introduction of simple labeling for education raises remittances by more than 15 percent. Adding the ability to directly send this funding to the school adds only a further 2.2 percent. The information asymmetry between migrants and their most closely connected household is randomly varied, but no significant change is found in the remittance response to these forms of commitment as information varies. Behavior in these games is shown to be predictive of take-up of a new financial product called EduPay, designed to allow migrants to pay remittances directly to schools in the Philippines. This take-up seems largely driven by a response to the ability to label remittances for education, rather than to the hard commitment feature of directly paying schools
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stein, Daniel Dynamics of Demand for Rainfall Index Insurance
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic nature of rainfall insurance purchasing decisions, specifically looking at whether and why receiving an insurance payout induces a greater chance of purchasing insurance again the next year. This analysis uses customer data from the Indian micro-finance institution BASIX, and finds that receiving an insurance payout is associated with a 9 to 22 percentage points increased probability of purchasing insurance the following year. This affect appears to be driven by behavioral effects of receiving a payout, and cannot be explained by trust, learning, or direct effects of weather. Overall, low repurchasing rates even after payouts suggest that current rainfall index insurance products are likely to continue struggling to achieve significant sales at market prices
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dang, Hai-Anh H Updating Poverty Estimates at Frequent Intervals in the Absence of Consumption Data
    Keywords: Armut ; Konsum ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Arbeitsmarktstatistik ; Jordanien
    Abstract: Obtaining consistent estimates on poverty over time as well as monitoring poverty trends on a timely basis is a priority concern for policy makers. However, these objectives are not readily achieved in practice when household consumption data are neither frequently collected, nor constructed using consistent and transparent criteria. This paper develops a formal framework for survey-to-survey poverty imputation in an attempt to overcome these obstacles, and to elevate the discussion of these methods beyond the largely ad-hoc efforts in the existing literature. The framework introduced here imposes few restrictive assumptions, works with simple variance formulas, provides guidance on the selection of control variables for model building, and can be generally applied to imputation either from one survey to another survey with the same design, or to another survey with a different design. Empirical results analyzing the Household Expenditure and Income Survey and the Unemployment and Employment Survey in Jordan are quite encouraging, with imputation-based poverty estimates closely tracking the direct estimates of poverty
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Shilpi, Forhad Voting with Their Feet?
    DDC: 360
    Abstract: Using bilateral migration flow data from the 2010 population census of Nepal, this paper provides evidence on the importance of public infrastructure and services in determining migration flows. The empirical specification, based on a generalized nested logit model, corrects for the non-random selection of migrants. The results show that migrants prefer areas that are nearer to paved roads and have better access to electricity. Apart from electricity's impact on income and through income on migration, the econometric results indicate that migrants attach substantial amenity value to access to electricity. These findings have important implications for the placement of basic infrastructure projects and the way benefits from these projects are evaluated
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ozier, Owen Exploiting Externalities to Estimate the Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Deworming
    Keywords: Basisgesundheitsversorgung ; Ländliches Gesundheitswesen ; Kinderschutz ; Ernährung ; Bildungsverhalten ; Kenia
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether a large-scale deworming intervention aimed at primary school pupils in western Kenya had long-term effects on young children in the region. The paper exploits positive externalities from the program to estimate the impact on younger children who did not receive treatment directly. Ten years after the intervention, large cognitive effects are found - comparable to between 0.5 and 0.8 years of schooling - for children who were less than one year old when their communities received mass deworming treatment. Because mass deworming was administered through schools, effects are estimated among children who were likely to have older siblings in schools receiving the treatment directly; in this subpopulation, effects are nearly twice as large
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Emran, Shahe Agricultural Productivity, Hired Labor, Wages and Poverty
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the effects of agricultural productivity on wage rates, labor supply to market oriented activities, and labor allocation between own farming and wage labor in agriculture. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that underscores the role of reallocation of family labor engaged in the production of non-marketed services at home ('home production'). The model predicts positive effects of a favorable agricultural productivity shock on wages and income, but the effect on hired labor is ambiguous; it depends on the strength of reallocation of labor from home to market production by labor surplus and deficit households. Taking rainfall variations as a measure of shock to agricultural productivity, and using subdistrict level panel data from Bangladesh, this paper finds significant positive effects of a favorable rainfall shock on agricultural wages, labor supply to market work, and per capita household expenditure. The share of hired labor in contrast declines substantially in response to a favorable productivity shock, which is consistent with a case where labor-deficit households respond more than the labor-surplus ones in reallocating labor from home production
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Oseni, Musiliu O Institutional Arrangements for the Promotion of Regional Integration of Electricity Markets
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the institutional arrangements needed for facilitating regional electricity cooperation. The paper begins by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. It then discusses two sets of case studies. The first set focuses on three regional developing country power pools-the Southern African Power Pool, the West African Power Pool, and the Central American Power Market. The second set focuses on three regional power pools in more developed countries-one in the United States, the Single Electricity Market in Ireland, and the South East Europe market. These cases highlight the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence presented, key lessons are drawn in the areas of preconditions for trading, necessary institutional arrangements, practicalities of timetabling, reasons to be hopeful about future prospects, and suggestions for future research
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  • 52
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Matta, Samer New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
    Abstract: Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bundervoet, Tom What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?
    Abstract: Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings show that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move toward non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (152 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Böhringer, Christoph The Environmental Implications of Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Abstract: This report investigates the environmental impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. A 10-region, 30-sector model of the Russian economy is developed. The model is innovative and more accurate empirically in that it contains foreign direct investment, imperfectly competitive sectors, and endogenous productivity effects triggered by World Trade Organization accession along with environmental emissions data in Russia for seven pollutants that are tracked for all 30 sectors in each of the 10 regions. The decomposition analysis shows that despite the fact that World Trade Organization accession allows Russia to import better technologies and reduce pollution from the “technique effect,” on balance World Trade Organization accession alone will increase environmental pollution in Russia through a shift toward dirty industries (the “composition effect”) and the expansion of output with its associated increase in pollution (“scale effect”). The paper assesses the costs of three types of environmental regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent. The paper simultaneously implements a central case scenario with each of the carbon dioxide emission reduction policy initiatives. The analysis finds that the welfare gains of World Trade Organization accession are large enough to pay for the costs of any of the three environmental abatement policies, while leaving a net welfare gain. But the political economy implications are that the non-market-based policies are more costly and the command and control policy, which is not well targeted, is very costly. Based on a constant returns to scale model, the estimated welfare gains are insufficient to finance the costs of environmental regulation
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Elbers, Chris Estimation of Normal Mixtures in a Nested Error Model with an Application to Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Inequality
    Abstract: This paper proposes a method for estimating distribution functions that are associated with the nested errors in linear mixed models. The estimator incorporates Empirical Bayes prediction while making minimal assumptions about the shape of the error distributions. The application presented in this paper is the small area estimation of poverty and inequality, although this denotes by no means the only application. Monte-Carlo simulations show that estimates of poverty and inequality can be severely biased when the non-normality of the errors is ignored. The bias can be as high as 2 to 3 percent on a poverty rate of 20 to 30 percent. Most of this bias is resolved when using the proposed estimator. The approach is applicable to both survey-to-census and survey-to-survey prediction
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chatterjee, Urmila Regulation and Noncompliance
    Keywords: Gesellschaftsrecht ; Arbeitsrecht ; Normbefolgung ; Informelle Wirtschaft ; Betriebsgröße ; Produktivität ; Rechtsdurchsetzung ; Indien
    Abstract: Noncompliance with regulations by enterprises is said to be rife in developing countries. Yet there is limited systematic evidence of the magnitude of noncompliance at the enterprise level. Making innovative use of two complementary data sources, this paper quantifies noncompliance for India's Factories Act without the question of illegality ever being raised directly with enterprises. The paper finds that more than twice as many firms are not complying as are complying. Further, the number of noncompliant firms is much larger than the number of firms adjusting out of the regulation. Thus noncompliance with the Factories Act is a key feature of the "missing middle" in India. The paper explores the main trends and patterns of noncompliance and highlights a number of key issues for further analytical and policy research
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  • 57
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eden, Maya Inflation and Indivisible Investment in Developing Economies
    Abstract: In countries with limited access to finance, firms accumulate retained earnings to finance indivisible investment projects. McKinnon (1973) illustrates that when cash is used as a primary store of value, inflation may discourage investment as it increases the cost of accumulating retained earnings. This paper formalizes this argument in a dynamic framework and provides a simple calibration of the model that suggests sizable effects of inflation on investment. The mechanism is particularly relevant for small firms, as firms with lower cash flows must accumulate retained earnings for longer periods of time to meet the price of indivisible investment goods. Consistent with the model, empirical evidence suggests that inflation disproportionately reduces investment in small firms
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Du Caju, Philip Why Firms Avoid Cutting Wages
    Abstract: Firms very rarely cut nominal wages, even in the face of considerable negative economic shocks. This paper uses a unique survey of fourteen European countries to ask firms directly about the incidence of wage cuts and to assess the relevance of a range of potential reasons for why the firms avoid cutting wages. The paper examines how firm characteristics and collective bargaining institutions affect the relevance of each of the common explanations put forward for the infrequency of wage cuts. Concerns about the retention of productive staff and a lowering of morale and effort were reported as key reasons for downward wage rigidity across all countries and firm types. Restrictions created by collective bargaining were found to be an important consideration for firms in Western European (EU-15) countries but were one of the lowest ranked obstacles in the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe
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  • 59
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Awasthi, Rajul Can Tax Simplification Help Lower Tax Corruption?
    Abstract: This paper seeks to find empirical evidence of a link between tax simplification and corruption in tax administration. It attempts to do this by first defining "tax simplicity" as a measurable variable and exploring empirical relationships between simpler tax regimes and corruption in tax administration. Corruption in tax administration is calculated with data series from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey Database. The focus is on business taxes. The study includes 104 countries from different income groups and regions of the world. The time period is 2002-12. The empirical findings support the existence of a significant link between the measure of tax corruption and tax simplicity, so a less complex tax system is shown to be associated with lower corruption in tax administration. It is predicted that the combined effect of a 10 percent reduction in both the number of payments and the time to comply with tax requirements can lower tax corruption by 9.64 percent. Some interesting regional differences are observed in the results. Similarly, the income level of countries plays an important role in determining the impact of tax simplification on tax corruption; specifically, the link is stronger for lower-income level countries. The positive link between tax simplicity and lower tax corruption has useful policy implications
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ali, Daniel Ayalew Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Nonfarm Participation
    Abstract: Although the potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually, empirical evidence for Africa remains limited. This study uses a direct elicitation approach for a national sample of Rwandan rural households to assess empirically the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi-formal sector and its impact using an endogenous sample separation between credit-constrained and unconstrained households. Being credit constrained reduces the likelihood of participating in off-farm self-employment activities by about 6.3 percent while making participation in low-return farm wage labor more likely. Even within agriculture, elimination of all types of credit constraints in the semi-formal sector could increase output by some 17 percent. Two suggestions for policy emerge from the findings. First, the estimates suggest that access to information (education, listening to the radio, and membership in a farm cooperative) has a major impact on reducing the incidence of credit constraints in the semi-formal credit sector. Expanding access to information in rural areas thus seems to be one of the most promising strategies to improve credit access in the short term. Second, making it easy to identify land owners and transfer land could also significantly reduce transaction costs associated with credit access
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ersado, Lire Egypt
    Abstract: The paper examines the levels and trends in access to education and educational outcomes across generations of Egyptian youth. Examination of three cohorts of individuals aged 21 to 24 (born between 1964 and 1967, 1974 and 1977, and 1982 and 1985) shows that access to education has substantially improved during the last three decades. Completion rates increased by more than 60 percent at the preparatory level and 70 percent at the secondary level and the college completion rate more than doubled. However, significant inequities remain in access to education and educational outcomes. The fraction of never enrolled among the cohorts is still large, affecting more girls than boys, more rural than urban areas, and more children of parents with lower level of education and in elementary occupations, such as subsistence agriculture. The analysis of test-scores from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and national examinations shows that more than a quarter of learning outcome inequality is attributable to circumstances beyond the control of a student, such as parental education, socioeconomic background and place of birth. In Egypt, inequality of opportunity in learning outcomes emerges early and builds up progressively throughout the education levels. Access to higher education continues to remain significantly lower for children from rural areas and for those whose parents have a low level of education or are engaged in elementary occupations. Tracking into vocational and general secondary schools, which depends on a high-stakes national examination, and high and unequal levels of household expenditures in private tutoring substantially contribute to unequal learning outcomes
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Audoly, Richard Pathways toward Zero-Carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization
    Abstract: This paper covers three policy-relevant aspects of the carbon content of electricity that are well established among integrated assessment models but under-discussed in the policy debate. First, climate stabilization at any level from 2 to 3°C requires electricity to be almost carbon-free by the end of the century. As such, the question for policy makers is not whether to decarbonize electricity but when to do it. Second, decarbonization of electricity is still possible and required if some of the key zero-carbon technologies-such as nuclear power or carbon capture and storage-turn out to be unavailable. Third, progressive decarbonization of electricity is part of every country' cost-effective means of contributing to climate stabilization. In addition, this paper provides cost-effective pathways of the carbon content of electricity-computed from the results of AMPERE, a recent integrated assessment model comparison study. These pathways may be used to benchmark existing decarbonization targets, such as those set by the European Energy Roadmap or the Clean Power Plan in the United States, or inform new policies in other countries. The pathways can also be used to assess the desirable uptake rates of electrification technologies, such as electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric stoves and heat pumps, or industrial electric furnaces
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Eden, Maya "Crowding in" and the Returns to Government Investment in Low-Income Countries
    Keywords: Öffentliche Investition ; Private Investition ; Verdrängungseffekt ; Return on Investment ; Entwicklungsländer
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of government investment on private investment in a sample of 39 low-income countries. Fluctuations in a predetermined component of disbursements on loans from official creditors to developing country governments are used as an instrument for fluctuations in public investment. The analysis finds evidence of "crowding in": an extra dollar of government investment raises private investment by roughly two dollars, and output by 1.5 dollars. To understand the implications for the return to public investment, a CES production function with public and private capital as inputs is calibrated. For most countries in the sample, the returns to government investment exceed the world interest rate. However, for some countries that already have high government investment rates, the return to further investment is below the world interest rate
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bastos, Paulo Does Energy Consumption Respond to Price Shocks?
    Keywords: Energiekonsum ; Preiselastizität ; Versorgungswirtschaft ; Regulierung ; Regressionsanalyse ; Buenos Aires ; Argentinien
    Abstract: This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short-run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a nonlinear and non-monotonic relationship between households' accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating exogenous price variation, which is exploited in a regression-discontinuity design. The results reveal that a price increase causes a prompt and significant decline in gas consumption. They also indicate that consumers respond more to recent past bills than to expected prices, which argues against the assumption that consumers have perfect awareness of complex price schedules
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Yamauchi, Futoshi Wage Growth, Landholding, and Mechanization in Agriculture
    Abstract: This paper uses farm panel data from Indonesia to examine dynamic patterns of land use, capital investments, and wages in agriculture. The empirical analysis shows that an increase in real wages has induced the substitution of labor by machines among relatively large farmers. Large farmers tend to increase the scale of operation by renting in more land when real wages increase. Machines and land are complementary if the scale of operation is greater than a threshold size. In contrast, such a dynamic change was not observed among relatively small holders, which implies a divergence in the movement of the production frontier between Java and off-Java regions given that the majority of small farmers are concentrated in Java
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cordella, Tito Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World
    Abstract: Using a new, large data set on quarterly reserve requirements for the period 1970-2011, this paper provides new evidence on the use of reserve requirements as a countercyclical macroprudential tool in developing countries. The appeal of reserve requirements lies in the pro-cyclical behavior of the exchange rate over the business cycle in developing countries. This enormously complicates the use of interest rates as a countercyclical instrument (because of its effect on the exchange rate) and calls for a second instrument. The paper suggests that conflicts may arise between the microprudential and macroprudential policy stances
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chan, Rosanna Financial Constraints, Working Capital and the Dynamic Behavior of the Firm
    Abstract: Financial constraints are widespread in developing countries, where even short-term credit is limited. Finance held by firms as working capital is a substantial proportion of sales revenue, yet the role of working capital is largely neglected by existing models of financial constraints. This paper presents a dynamic model of the firm that incorporates working capital by introducing a delay between factor payments and the receipt of revenue. In contrast with previous models, the working capital model predicts that firms under binding constraints will substitute between labor and capital in response to demand shocks, causing investment to be countercyclical. For firms near the margin of being constrained, constraints bind when positive production opportunities arise. Output growth is therefore constrained in response to positive shocks but not to negative shocks. Simulations suggest that models without working capital may understate the predicted effects of financial constraints on production efficiency, firm profit and growth over time. The predictions are tested with the Bangladesh Panel Survey data for manufacturing firms. Consistent with the theory, there is evidence that constraints bind when output price increases, that investment by constrained firms is countercyclical, and that output response to positive shocks is dampened for firms that are sometimes constrained. The results also are important for policy. In order to maximize growth, efforts to relieve credit constraints should be focused on periods when demand shocks are high
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pitt, Mark M Re-Re-Reply to "The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence
    Abstract: "The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence," by David Roodman and Jonathan Morduch (2014) (henceforth RM) is the most recent of a sequence of papers and web postings that seeks to refute the findings of the Pitt and Khandker (1998; henceforth PK) article "The Impact of Group-Based Credit on Poor Households in Bangladesh: Does the Gender of Participants Matter?" that microcredit for women had significant, favorable effects on household consumption and other outcomes. In this version of RM, the authors have backed off many of their prior claims and methods after earlier replies noted their faults (see Pitt (1999), Pitt (2011a), Pitt (2011b), and Pitt and Khandker (2012)). Nonetheless, important claims against PK remain in this new version of RM and are addressed below. Readers should refer to Pitt and Khandker (2012) for a discussion of other issues with RM, including a discussion of the bimodal likelihood
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (14 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van der Weide, Roy GLS Estimation and Empirical Bayes Prediction for Linear Mixed Models with Heteroskedasticity and Sampling Weights
    Abstract: This note adapts results by Huang and Hidiroglou (2003) on Generalized Least Squares estimation and Empirical Bayes prediction for linear mixed models with sampling weights. The objective is to incorporate these results into the poverty mapping approach put forward by Elbers et al. (2003). The estimators presented here have been implemented in version 2.5 of POVMAP, the custom-made poverty mapping software developed by the World Bank
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calderón, César Infrastructure, Growth, and Inequality
    Abstract: Academics and policy makers have long considered an adequate supply of infrastructure services to be essential for economic development. This paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution. The theoretical literature has employed a variety of analytical settings regarding the drivers of income growth, the degree to which infrastructure represents a public or a private good, and the extent of market distortions, notably in capital markets. In turn, the empirical literature has used various econometric methodologies on time-series and cross-section macro and microeconomic data to test for the effects of infrastructure development. However, these empirical tests face challenging issues of measurement, identification, and heterogeneity. Overall, the literature finds positive effects of infrastructure development on income growth and, more tentatively, on distributive equity. Still, the precise mechanisms through which these effects accrue, and their full impact on welfare, remain relatively unexplored
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gharafutdinova, Gulnaz Governors and Governing Institutions
    Abstract: The paper uses the latest 2011 round of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey for the Russian Federation, which for the first time was designed to be representative of Russian regions. The paper takes a closer look at regional-level factors influencing the business environment in Russia and, more specifically, conditions that favor the emergence of symbiotic relations between regional authorities and regional businesses. Considering the argued significance of informal rules, norms, and agreements for the regional-level business environment in Russia, the paper uses proxy variables such as tenure and origin of regional governors to identify how these rules are being institutionalized. The findings reveal that, at least in case of Russia, juxtaposing the state and business actors as separate and opposed to each other may overstate the distinction between these two groups of actors and understate the fact that many localities in Russia have witnessed the emergence of mutually beneficial state-business arrangements. Defining whether these arrangements are beneficial or harmful to regional development is beyond the scope of this exploratory paper
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (83 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Taaffe, Jessica A Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012)
    Abstract: An accurate measurement of HIV incidence is a key for policy makers and HIV program managers directing national HIV response. However, there is no perfect method to measure or estimate the rate at which new HIV infections occur in a population. This review compiles and triangulates longitudinal HIV incidence and prevalence data from published studies and trials, national reports and surveys, and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates from the Spectrum model, focusing on 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with generalized HIV epidemics. Three main points can be taken from this analysis of HIV incidence trends. First, modeled HIV incidence and nationally reported HIV prevalence levels in young females suggest that national HIV incidence has declined since 2000 in all except three countries analyzed (stable estimated HIV trends in Burkina Faso, Burundi, and Uganda), but trial and survey data suggest that in some demographics, HIV incidence remains critically high. Second, all modeled national HIV incidence curves and most empirically observed trends commenced a downward trajectory prior to the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy programs around 2004, suggesting the contribution of other factors, such as HIV prevention programs and natural epidemic dynamics, to this decline. Third, modeled HIV incidence estimates, including the incidence peaks in the past, exhibit much variation between Spectrum model versions and when new data are added, emphasizing the uncertainty of model outputs and the need to use incidence estimates with caution
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Balcazar, Carlos Felipe Rent Imputation for Welfare Measurement
    Abstract: As well acknowledged in the literature, housing is often the dominant consumption good for most households. As such, it should be included in a comprehensive welfare aggregate to measure people' living standards accurately. However, assigning a value to the flow of the dwelling for homeowners and nonmarket tenants is problematic. Over the last decades several estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented by practitioners covering from very simple to sophisticated approaches. This paper provides an extensive review of different methods to impute rent, commonly used for welfare analysis. It also gives an overview of how this problem has been addressed by other economic domains, namely national accounts, price indices, purchasing power parities, and taxation. Finally, after setting up a theoretical framework, the paper summarizes the empirical findings about the distributional impact of including imputed rents in welfare aggregates
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  • 74
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Long-Run Growth in Ghana
    Abstract: Ghana' economic growth picked up in the early 2000s and has been exceptionally strong over the past few years, with price booms of its main commodity exports, gold and cocoa, and the initiation of commercial oil production in 2011. This paper examines recent econometric evidence on Ghana' long-term growth and evaluates its sustainability. The empirical evidence surveyed finds that Ghana' main growth drivers were investment, oil, and mineral rents, while government consumption acted as a growth retardant. Based on various scenarios for its determinants, per capita GDP growth rates are predicted to be between 3.5 and 4.5 percent for 2014-34. Nevertheless, the predictions are subject to considerable uncertainty associated with the expected trends and volatility of the drivers of growth, particularly to sustaining investment levels and external factors such as commodity prices and international capital flows. A growth decomposition exercise shows that Ghana' past growth was led by capital accumulation, which will be difficult to sustain given the high current account deficits and the volatility of capital flows. Hence, a switch toward a productivity-based growth strategy, instead of the investment-led growth strategy of the past, is the only viable alternative to sustain the recent high growth rates. For that, Ghana needs focus on policies that enhance government effectiveness and public spending efficiency. To mitigate the risk of falling into the so-called growth traps like many other countries, Ghana must resolve its macroeconomic imbalances and resume the institutional reform to enhance the quality of institutions and make growth more inclusive
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Trafficking and Fragility in West Africa
    Abstract: Trafficking is an emerging concern in West Africa. In 2011, 17 percent of all cocaine consumed in Europe-21 tons-passed through the region, for a retail value of US
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Carletto, Calogero Informing Migration Policies
    Abstract: Researchers in many fields, such as demography, economics, and sociology, have established various data collection methodologies and principles to answer a range of academic and policy questions on migration. Although the progress has been impressive, some basic challenges remain. This paper addresses some basic, yet fundamental, questions on identification of international migrants and how their various demographic, personal, and human capital characteristics are captured via different data sources. The critical issues are the construction of proper sampling frames in censuses, registers, and surveys and the design of questionnaires in household, labor market, and other relevant surveys. The paper discusses how these data sources can be used to answer policy questions in areas such as labor markets, education, or poverty. The focus is on how some of the existing shortcomings in availability, quality, and relevance of migration data can be overcome via improvements in data collection methods
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Deininger, Klaus Inheritance Law Reform, Empowerment, and Human Capital Accumulation
    Abstract: This paper uses evidence from three Indian states, one of which amended inheritance legislation in 1994, to assess first- and second-generation effects of inheritance reform using a triple-difference strategy. Second-generation effects on education, time use, and health are larger and more significant than first-generation effects even controlling for mothers' endowments. Improved access to bank accounts and sanitation as well as lower fertility in the parent generation suggest that inheritance reform empowered females in a sustainable way, a notion supported by significantly higher female survival rates
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Backiny-Yetna, Prospere The Impact of Household Food Consumption Data Collection Methods on Poverty and Inequality Measures in Niger
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of three methodologies of food data collection on the welfare distribution, and poverty and inequality measures in Niger. The first methodology is a 7-day recall period, the second one is a usual month, and the third one is a 7-day diary. The paper finds that there is a difference in the distribution of welfare between, on the one hand, the two first methodologies (7-day recall and a usual month, which give results close to each other) and, on the other hand, the 7-day diary method. When considering annual per capita consumption, the 7-day diary lags the 7-day recall by 28 percent. This gap is not only at the mean of the distribution, it has been found at any level. These differences lead to differences in poverty and inequality measures even when alternate poverty lines are used. This study underscores the problem that many developing countries face when it comes to monitoring poverty indicators over time where different methodologies have been used over the years
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Guerra, Nancy Developing Social-Emotional Skills for the Labor Market
    Abstract: Although there is a general agreement in the literature of the importance of social-emotional skills for labor market success, there is little consensus on the specific skills that should be acquired or how and when to teach them. The psychology, economics, policy research, and program implementation literatures all touch on these issues, but they are not sufficiently integrated to provide policy direction. The objective of this paper is to provide a coherent framework and related policies and programs that bridge the psychology, economics, and education literature, specifically that related to skills employers value, non-cognitive skills that predict positive labor market outcomes, and skills targeted by psycho-educational prevention and intervention programs. The paper uses as its base a list of social-emotional skills that employers value, classifies these into eight subgroups (summarized by PRACTICE), then uses the psychology literature-drawing from the concepts of psycho-social and neuro-biological readiness and age-appropriate contexts-to map the age and context in which each skill subset is developed. The paper uses examples of successful interventions to illustrate the pedagogical process. The paper concludes that the social-emotional skills employers value can be effectively taught when aligned with the optimal stage for each skill development, middle childhood is the optimal stage for development of PRACTICE skills, and a broad international evidence base on effective program interventions at the right stage can guide policy makers to incorporate social-emotional learning into their school curriculum
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Success in Difficult Environments
    Abstract: The World Bank Group has identified support to fragile and conflict-affected states as a strategic priority. This paper provides a systematic portfolio review of the International Development Association-funded projects in fragile and conflict-affected states during 2001 to 2013 and a detailed empirical analysis of the correlations between project and country-level characteristics with project outcome ratings. The portfolio review identifies a decline in the proportional amount of resources directed to fragile and conflict-affected states and a decline in the number of internationally recruited staff based in these countries. The empirical analysis finds no statistical difference in whether projects obtain at least a moderately satisfactory outcome rating between countries that are fragile and conflict-affected states and those that are not. Examination of the distribution of project outcome ratings indicates that projects in fragile and conflict-affected states obtain slightly lower ratings conditional on being unsatisfactory or satisfactory. Detailed cross-section regression analysis finds that indicators of project complexity, such as supervision costs, staff time, preparation time, and financing, are correlated with lower outcome ratings. Project leader characteristics are correlated with project outcome ratings, but to a lesser degree in fragile and conflict-affected states, potentially indicating that it is more difficult for project leaders to influence project outcomes in these environments. Last, a new approach to control for unobservable project characteristics, such as inherent complexity or ambition, shows preliminary evidence that changes in the project leader and increases in the supervision budget are correlated with improvements in project performance
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woetzel, Jonathan Infrastructure
    Abstract: Adequate urban infrastructure can be expensive, but the costs of not delivering housing, transportation, water, sewage, public facilities, and other necessities are also high. Inadequate infrastructure slows and even reverses economic growth, driving unemployment, crime, and urban decay. It can fuel urban tensions by widening divisions among ethnic or income groups or between long-time residents and recent immigrants. And it can foster a general malaise that drains a city's vitality and spirit. One study in Africa showed that the return on investment for infrastructure was about 50 percent, based on contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), and that if investments were optimized, the return will be closer to 150 percent. This value is delivered through increased productivity and job creation, among other channels. Social benefits from improved public services and living standards are also substantial. In emerging markets, inadequate infrastructure can be a substantial barrier to growth. Adequate infrastructure reduces costs, supports economic activity, increases factor productivity in cities, and connects cities to domestic and international markets. With the staggering demand for infrastructure in emerging economies, officials will need to continue gathering as much funding as possible to meet their needs. This paper looks closer at the infrastructure needs of cities in emerging markets, based on the most recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) analysis. It offers practical suggestions on how to answer fundamental questions facing any government trying to get the greatest impact from limited infrastructure funds. And before concluding, it examines how cities worldwide have improved governance, institutions, processes, and capabilities to help close the infrastructure funding gap
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  • 82
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Amendola, Nicola Durable Goods and Poverty Measurement
    Abstract: The paper focuses on durable goods and their role in the measurement of living standards. The paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of the methods available to estimate the value of the services flowing from consumer durable goods. It also provides a unified framework that encompasses the acquisition approach, the rental equivalent approach, and the user cost approach. The pros and cons of each method are discussed in the context of poverty and inequality analysis and it is argued that the user cost should receive the highest consideration
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip Party Age and Party Color
    Abstract: This paper advances research on inequality with unique, new data on income distribution in 61 countries, including 20 Latin American countries, to explore the effects of political parties on redistribution. First, consistent with a central-but still contested-assumption of the political economy literature, left-wing governments redistribute more. In addition, consistent with recent research on the importance of party organization and the organizational differences between younger and older parties, older left-wing parties are more likely to internalize the long-run costs of redistribution and to be more credible in their commitment to redistribution, leading them to redistribute less. With entirely different data, the paper also provides evidence on mechanisms: left-wing governments not only redistribute more, they tax more; older left-wing parties, though, tax less than younger ones
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
    Abstract: This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries-the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey-to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists
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  • 85
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kalra, Nidhi Agreeing on Robust Decisions
    Abstract: Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes
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  • 86
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Karayalcin, Cem Trade and Cities
    Abstract: Many developing countries display remarkably high degrees of urban concentration that are incommensurate with their levels of urbanization. The cost of excessively high levels of urban concentration can be very high in terms of overpopulation, congestion, and productivity growth. One strand of the theoretical literature suggests that such high levels of concentration may be the result of restrictive trade policies that trigger forces of agglomeration. Another strand of the literature, however, points out that trade liberalization itself may exacerbate urban concentration by favoring the further growth of those large urban centers that have better access to international markets. The empirical basis for judging this question has been weak so far; in the existing literature, trade policies are poorly measured (or are not measured, as when trade volumes are used spuriously). Here, new disaggregated tariff measures are used to empirically test the hypothesis. A treatment-and-control analysis of pre- versus post-liberalization performance of the cities is also employed in liberalizing and non-liberalizing countries. It is found that (controlling for the largest cities that have ports and, thus, have better access to external markets) liberalizing trade leads to a reduction in urban concentration
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Camacho, Adriana Addressing Access and Behavioral Constraints through Social Intermediation Services
    Keywords: Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Sozialleistungsempfänger ; Rationalität ; Sozialer Dienst ; Chile ; Kolumbien
    Abstract: Social programs are often designed under the assumption that individuals make rational decisions that improve their welfare. Yet, informational and behavioral constraints limit the extreme and chronic poor's access and participation in social programs. This paper reviews the implementation and performance of two "social intermediation services" that were designed to address these constraints, improve beneficiaries' access to social programs, and help the poor surmount poverty: Chile Solidario, the first such service in Latin America, and Red Unidos, implemented later in Colombia. The analysis provides insights on key factors influencing performance, cost effectiveness, and the impacts that such services can be expected to have
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dasgupta, Susmita Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh
    Abstract: It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bird, Julia The Brasília Experiment
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the rapid expansion of the Brazilian road network, which occurred from the 1960s to the 2000s, on the growth and spatial allocation of population and economic activity across the country's municipalities. It addresses the problem of endogeneity in infrastructure location by using an original empirical strategy, based on the “historical natural experiment” constituted by the creation of the new federal capital city Brasília in 1960. The results reveal a dual pattern, with improved transport connections increasing concentration of economic activity and population around the main centers in the South of the country, while spurring the emergence of secondary economic centers in the less developed North, in line with predictions in terms of agglomeration economies. Over the period, roads are shown to account for half of pcGDP growth and to spur a significant decrease in spatial inequality
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  • 90
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (19 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calice, Pietro Predicting Bank Insolvency in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: This paper uses a panel of annual observations for 198 banks in 19 Middle East and North Africa countries over 2001-12 to develop an early warning system for forecasting bank insolvency based on a multivariate logistic regression framework. The results show that the traditional CAMEL indicators are significant predictors of bank insolvency in the region. The predictive power of the model, both in-sample and out-of-sample, is reasonably good, as measured by the receiver operating characteristic curve. The findings of the paper suggest that banking supervision in the Middle East and North Africa could be strengthened by introducing a fundamentals-based, off-site monitoring system to assess the soundness of financial institutions
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ling, Cristina Evidence of Development Impact from Institutional Change
    Abstract: Despite the growing body of literature examining the effectiveness of transparency and accountability initiatives, there remains limited substantiation for whether and how open budgeting contributes to reductions in poverty and improvements in the lives of the poor. This paper reviews available evidence and conclude that institutional changes can contribute to higher-level outcomes in certain contexts. The approach first draws from existing studies of transparency and accountability initiatives and then follows their references to broaden the evidence base. The findings highlight the importance of measuring budget transparency, accountability, and participation and tracing their outcomes along an incremental, nonlinear results chain. Logical links or ongoing loops in this sequence include the interplay or interdependency among these three dimensions; the subsequent achievement of key, often mutually reinforcing, intermediate development outcomes; and ultimately, improved program or service delivery as the key lever for influencing development impact. Rather than establishing standard indicators, the process begins to identify which aspects of the institutional change are valid for measurement and what contextual factors to consider. Overall, this review serves as a starting point and underscores the need for further investigation to establish effective measurement practices of institutional change and build an evidence base for understanding the relative robustness of institutional change paths and the context in which they are likely to matter
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko The Return of "Patrimonial Capitalism
    Abstract: The paper provides a detailed review of Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st century." It focuses on the new contributions of the book, and in particular on its unified treatment of economic growth, functional income distribution, and concentration of personal income. It concludes that Piketty's reinvigoration of classical and empircally-drven approach is likely to have a profound impact on economics
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sacks, Audrey The Dynamics of Centralized Procurement Reform in a Decentralized State
    Abstract: A central policy of the Government of Indonesia's strategy for enhancing its country's economic and social development is to develop infrastructure and expand service delivery. Public procurement reform is a key component of this policy. Despite the decentralization of financial responsibility and authority to relatively autonomous local level governments, procurement reform in Indonesia is a centrally-driven effort. In this paper, we examine the extent to which procurement reform is translating into improvements in sub-national performance. Data on local government procurement expenditures point to an overall decline in the volume of procurement, especially in poorer districts. This paper uses qualitative case studies of procurement reform in six local governments and finds that local government leadership is associated with the uptake of reform. There is little evidence to suggest that procurement reform has been "demand"-led, since neither the private sector nor Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) have been active in advocating for procurement reform
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Scheierling, Susanne M How to Assess Agricultural Water Productivity?
    Abstract: Given population and income growth, it is widely expected that the agricultural sector will have to expand the use of water for irrigation to meet rising food demand; at the same time, the competition for water resources is growing in many regions. As a response, it is increasingly recommended that efforts should focus on improving water productivity in agriculture, and significant public and private investments are being made with this goal in mind. Yet most public communications are vague on the meaning of agricultural water productivity, and on what should be done to improve it. They also tend to emphasize water as if it were the only input that mattered. This paper presents findings from a first attempt to survey the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature with regard to the explicit inclusion of water aspects in productivity and efficiency measurements, with the aim of contributing to the discussion on how to assess and possibly improve agricultural water productivity. The focus is on studies applying single-factor productivity measures, total factor productivity indices, frontier models, and deductive models that incorporate water. A key finding is that most studies either incorporate field- and basin-level aspects but focus only on a single input (water), or they apply a multi-factor approach but do not tackle the basin level. It seems that no study on agricultural water productivity has yet presented an approach that accounts for multiple inputs and basin-level issues. However, deductive methods do provide the flexibility to overcome many of the limitations of the other methods
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aker, Jenny C Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets
    Keywords: Telefonnetz ; Agrarmarkt ; Effizienzmarkthypothese ; Agrarpreis ; Westafrika
    Abstract: Mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities, but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets. Building on the work of Aker (2010), this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in Niger. The results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea, a semi-perishable commodity. These effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year. The introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum, two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers. There are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on traders' gross margins or producer price levels, but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra-annual price variation for cowpea. These results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iootty, Mariana Stylized Facts on Productivity Growth
    Abstract: Drawing on a representative sample of firms, this paper presents some microeconomic evidence on the productivity growth process in Croatia since the onset of recession (2008-12). Four types of results are highlighted. First, there is a persistent (and increasing) heterogeneity in the performance of Croatian firms along outcome measures. Second, Croatia lags behind regional peers in entrepreneurship measures, which suggests a comparatively lower economic dynamism. Third, the lack of dynamism displayed by the Croatian economy is confirmed when looking at the firm entry and exit process: the analytical results point to reduced firm dynamism compared with Croatia's peers in Europe and Central Asia. Fourth, the contribution of net entry to overall productivity growth in Croatia is surprisingly negative. This is contrary to what would be expected based on the literature and suggests that the process of "destructive creation" in Croatia has not been efficient, as the market might be eliminating firms that are potentially productive. Policies that foster market contestability should be pursued, especially policies aiming at better product market regulation (such as liberalization of entry into the service sector, particularly retail and infrastructure). Measures to help finance entrepreneurship (in promising sectors) should be used to support enhancements in firm productivity. In addition, appropriate bankruptcy rules play a key role by easing the exit process and allowing low-productive units to leave the market and free resources that can be better used by other, more efficient, firms
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Morales, Alvaro Pedraza Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management
    Abstract: This paper studies the portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer-based underperformance penalty. Evidence is taken from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer-based underperformance penalty, known as the Minimum Return Guarantee. The trading behavior by the managers is studied before and after a change in the strictness of the guarantee in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter minimum return guarantee results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. These managers rebalance their portfolios by buying securities in which they are underexposed relative to their peers, as opposed to selling assets in which they are overexposed. Overall, the results suggest that incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks play an important role in the portfolio allocation of these funds
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  • 98
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hirano, Yumeka Aid is Good for the Poor
    Abstract: Aid is good for the poor. This paper uses detailed aid data spanning 60 developing countries over the past two decades to show that social aid significantly and directly benefits the poorest in society, while economic aid increases the income of the poor through growth. This new and unequivocal finding distinguishes the current study from past studies that only utilized aggregate aid data and returned ambiguous results. The paper also confirms that none of the elements of globalization (trade, foreign direct investment, remittances), policies (government expenditure, inflation management), institutional quality, nor other plausibly pro-poor factors have systematic effects on the poor or any other income group, beyond their effects on average incomes. The paper finds that trade and foreign direct investment tend to benefit the richest segments of society more than other income groups. Therefore, the presented evidence suggests that aid can play a crucial role in enabling the poor to benefit more from globalization. These discoveries underscore the need to assist developing countries to find the mix of economic and social aid that jointly promotes the participation of the poor in the development process under globalization. In this manner, aid can make greater strides in spurring development
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Burt, Alison Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States
    Abstract: As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable-but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
    Abstract: The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices
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