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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,355)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (69 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Del Carmen, Giselle Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras
    Keywords: Administrative Registries ; Econometrics ; Economic Development ; Honduras ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Top Income
    Abstract: This paper presents distributional national accounts for Honduras over 2003-2019, using survey microdata, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. The estimates suggest a high and persistent inequality in the country: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of the total income over the period, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Undistributed corporate profits are the overwhelming income source at the very top of the distribution, highlighting its importance in the measurement of income inequality. Finally, using a panel of tax records, the paper also documents that not only is inequality persistent, but the same individuals are often observed at the top, suggesting that the observed inequality has deep roots
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mali assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mali perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mali on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mali; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mali; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mali; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mali
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business Environment ; E-Government ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Governance ; Innovation and Technology Privacy ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The Chinese government has a long-standing commitment to business environment and digital government reforms. China's online government-to-business (G2B) services have enhanced public service efficiency, accessibility, and transparency, creating a more favorable business environment. This note features a case study of the all-in-one online government service platform developed in Zhejiang Province, a subnational leader in promoting e-government and business environment reforms. Following general national guidelines, Zhejiang has been a leader in exploring innovations to promote digital government development and business environment reforms. Its reforms both demonstrate the effectiveness of a proactive approach to leveraging digital technologies for administrative efficiency and an improved user experience and highlight the positive impacts on the business environment
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Montenegro assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Montenegro perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Montenegro on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Montenegro; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Montenegro; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Montenegro; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Montenegro
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pullinger, John Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Statistical System ; Statistical Capacity ; Statistical Capacity Index ; Statistical Indicators ; Statistical Performance
    Abstract: Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. This paper offers the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. It compares the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index with other widely used indexes, such as the Open Data Inventory index, the Global Data Barometer index, and other regional and self-assessment tools. The findings show that each index brings advantages in data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of countries and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. The Open Data Inventory index covers the most countries, the Global Data Barometer index collects data through its surveys, and the Statistical Performance Indicators and Index offer a broader framework for assessing statistical systems. The paper offers further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions for development
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Cabo Verde assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Cabo Verde perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Cabo Verde on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Cabo Verde; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Cabo Verde; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Cabo Verde; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Cabo Verde
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Education ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Risks ; Footprint ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Oil Revenue ; Quasi-Fiscal Activities ; SNG
    Abstract: The first three chapters of the PFR review the core fiscal policy and revenue mobilization issues. Chapter 1 discusses the fiscal landscape, fiscal framework, and progressivity of fiscal policy. Chapter 2 looks at the footprint of quasi-fiscal activities, which affects the overall fiscal stance and exposes certain fiscal risks. Chapter 3 discusses the stagnation in non-oil revenue and collection across taxes and outlines reform options to improve the tax regime. This PFR also covers education and social protection spending, constituting about 42 percent of generalgovernment budget spending, and is critical for Kazakhstan's social agenda and long-term development goals. Chapter 4 analyzes the efficiency of public spending on education, discusses challenges in delivering equitable access to quality education, and offers options for enhancing spending effectiveness through institutional and policy changes. Chapter 5 discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of spending on the social protection system, particularly the coverage and targeting of social assistance programs, issues in implementing active labor market programs, and challenges in delivering social insurance. Because of data constraints, this PFR excludes analysis on social benefits, pensions, and the State Social Insurance Fund. The last two chapters cover the core system of public-finance management issues on budgeting and inter-governmental fiscal relations. Chapter 6 considers options for further improving budgeting, planning, and monitoring to deliver better fiscal outcomes for inclusive and resilient growth. While Chapter 7 examines emerging subnational fiscal issues and options to simplify and improve certainty in the transfer mechanism from central to SNGs and within the SNG hierarchy
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Turkiye assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Turkiye perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Turkiye on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Turkiye; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Turkiye; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Turkiye; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Turkiye
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Fiji assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Fiji perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Fiji on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Fiji; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Fiji; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Fiji; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Fiji
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Madrigal Correa, Alma Lucia Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines
    Keywords: Ancestral Domains ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict Data Monitor ; Indigenous Peoples ; Indigenous Peoples Law ; Land Titling ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mindano ; Political Economy ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Effectiveness ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Sao Tome and Principe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Sao Tome and Principe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Sao Tome and Principe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Sao Tome and Principe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Sao Tome and Principe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Sao Tome and Principe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Sao Tome and Principe
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Uzbekistan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Uzbekistan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Uzbekistan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Uzbekistan
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Environment ; IDA19 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rating System ; Resilience ; RRS
    Abstract: In response to the growing recognition that measuring inputs, such as climate finance, is not enough to capture the impacts of investments, the World Bank Group developed the Resilience Rating System (RRS). Developed over a two-year, multi-sectoral consultative process through close collaboration with internal and external actors, the RRS methodology aims to guide investment decisions and improve climate resilience in project design and outcomes. The methodology report is publicly available. The RRS evaluates and rates investment projects from C to A+, based on their resilience attributes in two complementary dimensions. The resilience of rating considers a project's design, reflecting the confidence that it will achieve its expected objectives and maximize development benefits in the face of climate and disaster risks. The resilience through rating considers a project's outcomes and reflects its contribution to improving climate resilience in the broader community, sector and systems, and to driving transformational adaptation. Combining the two dimension ratings provides an overall project rating, from CC to A+A+
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Algeria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Algeria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Algeria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Algeria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Algeria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Algeria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Algeria
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Komatsu, Hitomi Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Female Entrepreneurs ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Governments often use simplified business tax systems, such as presumptive tax regimes, to register and tax small and microenterprises. Despite concerns about how such regimes could disproportionately affect female-owned and low-revenue entrepreneurs, there is a lack of empirical analysis examining the tax burden. The presumptive tax in Ethiopia has a complex assessment system, where the tax liabilities are determined according to the activity type and turnover (99 activities and 19 turnover bands), and some activities do not have a tax-free threshold. This paper uses two rounds of data in the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Surveys and the tax code to analyze the equity and gender implications of the presumptive tax on small and microenterprises by imputing the effective tax rates. There are three key findings. First, the effective tax rates are higher for businesses in the lowest quartile at 4.3 percent of turnover compared to 1.5 percent for businesses in the highest quartile, using the most recent survey, resulting in a regressive system. Second, male-owned businesses tend to operate in sectors without a tax-free threshold and are more likely than female-owned businesses to face higher tax rates. Third, the effective tax rates are high for businesses in food and beverage services, which is female-dominated, and for transit services, which is male-dominated, due to the lack of a tax-free threshold for these sectors. The study finds that an alternative presumptive tax system with a single tax rate on turnover and an exemption for all low-revenue businesses would be simpler for tax assessment and more progressive
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moretti, Matias Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Emerging Markets Bond Index ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Inelastic Financial Markets ; Institutional Investors ; International Capital Markets ; International Financial Markets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Small Open Economies ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment device that reduces default risk
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chen, Yutong Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use: Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program
    Keywords: Difference in Differences Specifications ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Labor Supply ; Low Skilled Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Cost ; Travel Subsidies ; Unemployed Women ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper estimates a synthetic difference-in-differences specification on the roll-out of a program providing free bus transit for women in several Indian states, to examine the impact on women's time allocation and labor supply. Household expenditures on buses fall and women save time on travel. However, there is substantial heterogeneity. Skilled employed women increase labor supply and reduce time on household chores. Low-skilled married women increase time on household activities and reduce labor supply. Unemployed women increase job search with no effect on employment. The findings show that gender roles within households undermine the effect of gender-specific travel subsidies on female labor supply
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bou-Habib, Chadi Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019
    Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Crisis ; External Shock ; Famine ; General Equilibrium Simulation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mount Lebanon ; Natural Disaster
    Abstract: This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in the Kyrgyz Republic assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in the Kyrgyz Republic perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic on 1) their views regarding the general environment in the Kyrgyz Republic; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in the Kyrgyz Republic; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in the Kyrgyz Republic
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambel, Alemayehu A Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net?
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gap ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women and Tax ; Women Run Businesses
    Abstract: This study investigates gender disparities in the tax burden in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using data on 2,320 taxpayers for 2011 and 2012. A quantile regression analysis is employed to control for firm characteristics such as sector, size, and age. The results show that women-owned businesses are more likely to operate in low-profit sectors and report lower sales and tax liabilities than men-owned businesses. However, women-owned businesses pay as much as men-owned businesses in taxes, suggesting that they are subject to a higher effective tax rate. This, in turn, may lead to women-owned businesses exiting the tax net at a higher rate. These findings suggest that gender disparities in tax compliance are not simply due to differences in firm characteristics but may also be due to biases in tax declaration and enforcement processes
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Giuliano, Fernando The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Shocks ; Droughts ; Econometrics ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Environmental Disasters and Degradation ; Floods ; Macro-Structural Model ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Uruguay is an economy that is vulnerable to precipitation patterns, as evidenced during the country's historic 2022/23 drought. Yet, and despite its rich macroeconomic and climate data environment, the country does not have a consistent macroeconomic model to address the aggregate impact of climate shocks, let alone the expected additional impact from climate change. This paper intends to fill this gap by integrating climate shocks into the World Bank's Macro-Fiscal Model, its workhorse structural macroeconomic projection model. Building on existing country studies on the sectoral effects of droughts and floods, the analysis finds that the volatility of a simulated Uruguayan economy only subject to historical climate shocks reaches 22 percent of the historical volatility of gross domestic product. Moreover, as climate shocks are only one of many shocks that can simultaneously affect an economy, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic shocks into historical climate shocks exacerbates volatility and increases potential losses. Gross domestic product can fall by 2.3 percent under a combined negative climate and macroeconomic shock of the type witnessed once every six years on average, and 4.1 percent under a once-in-40-years combined negative shock. Climate change compounds these effects going forward, worsening the magnitude of the downside risks from droughts by between 18 and 30 percent, although estimates incorporating climate change are subject to large uncertainty. The order of magnitude of these effects calls for a more systematic consideration of climate shocks in macroeconomic projections and fiscal risk assessments for Uruguay
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Co-Evolutionary Framework ; Diversification ; Economic Growth ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Principle Of Relatedness ; Technology-Based
    Abstract: This research examines the diversification process by conceptualizing a co-evolutionary framework linking production and technology. The study applies the framework to retrospectively explain Korea's successful diversification path and to Viet Nam to identify how the country could further diversify into complex and value-added products. The authors apply relatedness analysis leveraging patent and trade data and present four different types of diversification patterns, namely unrelated diversification, production-based diversification, technology-based diversification, and complex diversification. Developed countries including Korea shifted toward technology-based or complex diversification strategies as their economies developed. Using a simulated scenario approach, the report outlines potential future trajectories wherein Viet Nam attains technological capabilities. The result shows that Viet Nam can diversify into 233 products if it accumulates capabilities in the 12 identified technologies. The report concludes with policy lessons that could inform policy makers in Viet Nam as well as other developing economies. Namely, that the country would need to invest more intensively in technology and capabilities upgrading to diversify into new complex products and evolve its diversification strategy alongside its economic growth and capability building process
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic, Talip Recording the Time Divide: A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement
    Keywords: Cellular Phones ; Commercial Recall ; Consumption ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Telecommunications ; Usage Monitoring
    Abstract: Based on a randomized survey experiment in Malawi, this study examines how innovative techniques in time use data collection could sidestep measurement concerns with traditional recall-based time use measurement. The experiment assigns random samples of households, and adult men and women within, to one of two treatment arms on time use measurement: a traditional 24-hour recall time use diary, and a self-administered smartphone-based pictorial time diary, known as the TimeTracker app, for real-time data collection. Compared to the recall arm, participation in employment and unpaid domestic and care work is shown to be higher in the smartphone arm for both men and women. The resulting estimates of gender gaps, while continuing to be large, are narrower in the smartphone arm, except for care work where the estimated gender gap increases. The recall treatment leads to substantial underreporting of activities after 6 pm, which otherwise accounts for nearly 30 percent of daily reported time in the smartphone arm. Likewise, the extent of simultaneous activities, particularly among women, is markedly lower in the recall arm. The overall reported time is, however, higher in the recall arm due to the minimum 15-minute duration that was used for recording activities the 24-hour recall diary, while over one-third of activities lasted less than 15 minutes in the smartphone arm. The analysis also shows that using stylized time use questions with a 7-day recall, as opposed to a 24-hour recall diary, results in an even greater overestimation of reported time in employment and unpaid work
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Law ; Gender Based Violence ; Gender Equality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nonextractive Sectors ; Resilience
    Abstract: Papua New Guinea has abundant resources in the form of oil and mineral wealth. But a complex set of factors, including systemic gender inequality, underinvestment in non-extractive sectors, and fragility compounded by vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards act as barriers to sustainable and inclusive growth of the country. This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) report assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group support to Papua New Guinea between fiscal year FY08 and FY23. It assesses the Bank Group's development effectiveness in addressing the above three core themes, namely: (i) lack of investment in Papua New Guinea's non-extractive sectors and their poor performance, (ii) the economic exclusion of women and gender-based violence (GBV) issues associated with it, and (iii) unmitigated risks of disaster from natural hazards, and violence, and conflict. The report answers three specific questions. The first explores the extent to which the Bank Group adapted its engagement in line with key constraints, including in relation to development partners, changes in country context, and lessons from experience. The second focuses on the results of Bank Group support and explanatory factors for results under each them, answered by applying a gender lens where relevant. The third question explores the extent to which the Bank Group successfully identified and addressed conflict, violence, and disaster from natural hazards risks. The report offers key lessons to inform the World Bank Group's future engagement with the country: (i) Data gaps need to be addressed to inform sound policy making and effective programming in Papua New Guinea. (ii) Declining governance quality and increasing bilateral aid will require the World Bank to reassess how it supports key policy reforms to achieve development impact, including through using DPOs. (iii) The Bank Group could elevate its impact on gender equality and GBV by shifting from a project-centric approach to a strategic country engagement approach. (iv) The negative effects that compound and interrelated risks pose to achieving development aims need to be addressed more comprehensively
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Urban Study
    Keywords: Demographics and Aging ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Human Development and Gender ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Urban and Rural Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: This report begins with an Executive Summary, which introduces the territorial development approach and the rationale for applying it in Lesotho's development context before going on to summarize key takeaways and recommendations. It is followed by four chapters: chapter 1, Introduction, lays out the country context, presenting in brief Lesotho's economic and demographic situation, population projections, governmental structure, and poverty profile and the government's goals. Chapter 2, territorial development framework and analysis in Lesotho, discusses the territorial development approach, its objectives, and the challenges it aims to address before presenting a customized 2 by 2 territorial framework for Lesotho and explaining how it can be applied. Chapter 3, analyzing Lesotho's Challenges through a Territorial Lens, lays out a spatial analysis centering on four development challenges: economic opportunities, internal connectivity and regional integration, access to basic services, and climate preparedness. To highlight the challenges, the chapter includes 4D heat maps linked to density, distance, disparity, and disaster risk. It also summaries case studies and real-life applications of the territorial development approach in Lesotho. Full case studies are in an annex. Chapter 4, recommendations, covers guiding principles and recommendations based on the territorial development approach and analysis
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  • 36
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Azerbaijan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Azerbaijan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Azerbaijan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Azerbaijan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Azerbaijan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Azerbaijan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Azerbaijan
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Saudi Arabia ; Women ; Women and Labor
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Average growthin the GCC surpassed 7 percent in 2022 led by Saudi Arabia, its biggest economy, which was globally the fastest growing large economy. This growth was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil sectors. The latter was the result of persistent structural reforms undertaken by several GCC countries to improve the investment environment, promote flexible labor markets, and encourage women to join the labor market. GCC countries have used the windfall revenues from oil and gas to rebuild their buffers, pay down their debt, and shore-up their sovereign wealth funds. They have also sought to protect their vulnerable populations with continued subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities. Such policies have limited the impact of inflation on the domestic economy. Finally, GCC countries have also used their financial muscle to support economically weaker countries in the region. The stellar growth of 2022 is slowing down and growth is expected to moderate to 1 percent in 2023 before picking up again to 3.6 percent in 2024. The decline in economic activity in 2023 is driven by consecutive production cut decisions by OPEC+ in an effort to stabilize global oil prices. However, non-oil GDP continues its growth trajectory reaching 3.9 percent, resulting weaker integration between oil and non-oil sectors. To maintain this track record, GCC countries will need to continue to exercise prudent macroeconomic management, stay the course with structural reforms, and increase non-oil exports. Downside risks remain and it would be amiss not to mention them. The conflict in the Middle East presents major risks to the region and the GCC outlook if it extends or expands to include other regional players. While it is too early to quantify the impact and channels of the conflict, we already witness a 4 percentsurge in global oil futures. Although China is bouncing back after emerging from tight Covid-19 lockdowns, troubles in the real estate sector could still disrupt this trajectory. Persistent high inflation in the world's major economies has not been entirely vanquishedsuggesting a high interest rate environment for a longer period. Windfall revenues are anticipated as a result of higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a pivotal role in determining economicramifications not only on energy markets but also on regional financial and trade markets and overall economic confidence. The Special Focus section of the report discusses the power of structural reforms and social norms in advancing female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia experienced an unprecedented surge in female labor force participation since 2016 as a result of: (i) changing regulations and the removal of legal barriers, shifting social norms, (ii) the implementation of sound structural reforms and (iii) effective government communications. Saudi Arabia's success in increasing female labor force participation from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36 percent in 2023 offers important lessons to other countries in the region and the world
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Early Childhood ; Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Protection ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Strengths and Gaps
    Abstract: This human capital review assesses human capital outcomes in Mauritania and identifies actions to strengthen, utilize, and protect human capital. The government of Mauritania has demonstrated a strong commitment to placing human capital at the forefront of its long-term vision, with dedicated efforts focused on enhancing childhood health and education outcomes. Despite Mauritania's positive initiatives, the country's human capital wealth per capita has declined over the last 20 years; and it is imperative to look at ways to quickly reverse this situation. Children born today in Mauritania will only be 38 percent as productive when they grow up as they could have been had they enjoyed complete education and full health. Increasing the productivity of Mauritanians--both men and women--and thus allowing them to fully contribute to the development of their society entails transforming the human capital challenge to a human capital opportunity. This report takes a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach and proposes recommendations for building, protecting, and utilizing human capital in Mauritania
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  • 45
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Serbia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Serbia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Serbia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Serbia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Serbia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Serbia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Serbia
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  • 46
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Kenya assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Kenya perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Kenya on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Kenya; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Kenya; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Kenya; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Kenya
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  • 47
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Ghana assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Ghana perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ghana on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Ghana; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Ghana; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Ghana; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Ghana
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  • 48
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Guinea perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Guinea on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Guinea; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Guinea; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Guinea; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Guinea
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  • 49
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragility ; CPE ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Drought and Climate Shocks ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mavroeconomic Vulnerabilities ; Unsustainable Development ; Weak Business Environment
    Abstract: The objective of this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) is to assess how well the World Bank Group supported Ethiopia in addressing key challenges that constrained its development and how that support adapted over time to respond to changing circumstances, an evolving relationship, and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover fiscal years (FY)13-23. The time period is selected to include the last two Bank Group strategies to support Ethiopia and coincides with the period of theprevious two political administrations. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group-supported Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia expected in FY25
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CEMAC ; Country Level ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. The Economic Barometer also includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition's special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to take better advantage of future commodity price booms
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mongolia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mongolia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mongolia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mongolia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mongolia
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Zimbabwe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Zimbabwe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Zimbabwe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Zimbabwe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Zimbabwe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Zimbabwe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Zimbabwe
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  • 54
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Jamaica assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Jamaica perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Jamaica on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Jamaica; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Jamaica; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Jamaica; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Jamaica
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Fiscal Capacity Estimation ; Fiscal Policy ; Intergovernmental Transfers ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subnational Tax Effort ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper discusses the application of the conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation using Indonesia's existing macroeconomic indicators. The authors find that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, and urbanization rate are good predictors for most tax sources. These three indicators also predicted the total district's OSRs well, providing an empirical foundation for an aggregated macro-based model to estimate all OSRs using the abovementioned variables. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 1 provides a description of Indonesia's system of intergovernmental transfers and subnational taxation. It shows subnational fiscal reliance on transfers rather than OSRs. Section 2 makes the case for reforming the DAU formula and explains recent efforts by the Government of Indonesia on that front. Section 3 discusses the limited existing empirical literature on estimating potential revenues for transfers formula. Section 4 explains and applies our conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation. It also provides the empirical justification to use an aggregated approach to estimation rather than estimating each individual tax base. Section 5 applies the aggregated approach to estimating potential revenues. Section 6 discusses the equity implications and makes the case for using district fixed effects. Finally, section 7 provides a conclusion of this paper
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Thomas, Alastair VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Redistribution ; Reduced Rates ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Tax Reform ; Value Added Tax (VAT)
    Abstract: Most countries' value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and (to a lesser extent) social and cultural objectives. This paper assesses the case for applying reduced VAT rates, with a particular focus on OECD countries where reduced rates feature prominently. It examines both the theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as practical considerations, and concludes that the case for reduced VAT rates is weak. In particular, the optimal indirect tax literature finds no redistributive role for reduced VAT rates when other more direct instruments are available. These theoretical findings are supported by the empirical literature that shows reduced VAT rates to be a poorly targeted means of supporting lower income households, particularly when compared to targeted cash transfer programs. Similarly, reduced VAT rates are unlikely to be a well-targeted way to encourage consumption of merit goods, while they also create significant administrative complexity. These findings have significant implications for tax reform in both developed and developing economies. In particular, where countries have the administrative capacity to implement effectively targeted cash transfer programs, they should use these programs to support poorer households instead of reduced VAT rates
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demand Shortfalls ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Growth ; Inflation ; Investment Shifts ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Property Sector
    Abstract: Economic activity in China has picked up in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.2 percent y/y in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. The initial phase of economic reopening triggered a surge in economic activity in Q1, but growth momentum decelerated rapidly in Q2 before recovering modestly in Q3. The volatile growth performance, compounded by persistent deflationary pressures and still weak consumer confidence, suggests continued fragility in the recovery. China's investment deceleration has been one of the key drivers of the overall growth slowdown in recent years. Together with the decline in aggregate investment growth, there has been a marked shift in the composition of investment. Structural reforms are crucial both to accelerate rebalancing towards higher consumption and to mitigate risks of inefficiencies in capital allocation. Following recent statements by policymakers, a renewed focus on structural reform implementation with specific measures strengthening the rule of law, independent enforcement of regulations, fostering competition, and ensuring a level-playing field could help ensure that resources are allocated to the most productive sectors and firms. Deepening financial sector reform will enhance market-based financial intermediation. Measures to improve the progressivity of the fiscal system, reform the hukou system, and foster inclusive finance will support household consumption growth
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  • 58
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Economic Development ; Energy Prices ; Growth and Real Sector ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pandemic and weak global trade has particularly impacted Thailand due to the country's position as a trade and tourism hub. Thailand's tourism arrivals reached only 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels in September despite the ongoing growth in global services trade. Visitor numbers increased across the board, except for China and Japan which are experiencing economic slowdown. The economic recovery faltered due to global headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2023 Q3, well below expectations. Thailand has implemented a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has taken the first steps to implementing comprehensive carbon pricing. This report explores some of the complexities involved in implementing carbon pricing. It finds that Thailand has already taken some of the most difficult steps in setting up a comprehensive carbon pricing policy instrument. Important questions remain to be addressed about what form carbon pricing should take in Thailand and which economic sectors should be included in a carbon pricing scheme. The potential benefits from carbon pricing may be substantial. Carbon pricing is likely to play an important role in meeting future emission reduction targets, reducing environmental degradation and air pollution while positioning Thailand as a regional leader in green and sustainable growth
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Racing against time
    Keywords: Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Kreditmarkt ; Entwicklung ; Tendenz ; CBRs ; Economic Development ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Palestinian Economy ; West Bank and Gaza
    Abstract: Operating in environments marked by fragility, conflict, and violence poses complex and distinct challenges, and the Palestinian case is no different. A significant body of literature has emphasized the specific bottlenecks that exist, ranging from - in the first place - the movement, access, trade, and investment restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) on the West Bank, and the near-blockade of Gaza, the noncontiguous geography of the territories, to the program advanced by the Palestinian Authority on structural reforms lacking momentum, and increasing penury of foreign aid. Numerous analytical and policy papers - spanning at least three decades, since the establishment of the AHLC forum - have emphasized the severity of the challenges at hand and the imperative of fostering cooperation among all parties. Despite relative clarity on the objectives, progress on the implementation of priorities has been modest, resulting in increased complexity and urgency at the present day. At the behest of the AHLC, this report aims to guide the renewed efforts of the PA and the GoI, the global community, and - more broadly - all relevant policymakers and stakeholders, as they lay the groundwork for sustainable growth and shared prosperity in the Palestinian territories and the wider region. In line with the above, the findings of this report are unsurprising. Unlocking the economic potential of the West Bank and Gaza requires urgent action, in order to spur per capita growth beyond near-stagnation levels, as well as to put the fiscal situation on a sounder footing. The removal, or at least a significant reduction, of restrictions by Israel is a vital prerequisite. Simultaneously, steadfast commitment by the PA to the implementation of a comprehensive reform agenda will be paramount to bolster both recovery and resilience, along with reinforcing institutional governance. In addition, as this report indicates, addressing shortfalls in the health sector will be pivotal to improve the efficiency of public spending, safeguarding human capital, improving service delivery, and revitalizing economic opportunities in a context marked by decades of fragility. While underscoring the burning pressure of these challenges, the World Bank remains fully committed to continuing its close technical collaboration with the PA, the GoI, and all relevant development partners, to help forging a path towards stability, security, economic progress and prosperity, and to contribute to the collective aspiration for a brighter future
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (107 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Danon, Alice Cognitive and Socioemotional Skills in Low-Income Countries: Measurement and Associations with Schooling and Earnings
    Keywords: Cognitive Skills ; Education Investment Returns ; Income ; Labor Earnings ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migration ; Return on Investment in Schooling ; Socioemotional Skills
    Abstract: This paper assesses the reliability and validity of cognitive and socioemotional skills measures and investigates the correlation between schooling, skills acquisition, and labor earnings. The primary data from Pakistan incorporates two innovations related to measurement and sampling. On measurement, the paper develops and implements a battery of instruments intended to capture cognitive and socioemotional skills among young adults. On sampling, the paper uses a panel that follows respondents from their original rural locations in 2003 to their residences in 2018, a period over which 38 percent of the respondents left their native villages. In terms of their validity and reliability, our skills measures compare favorably to previous measurement attempts in low- and middle-income countries. The following are documented in the data: (a) more years of schooling are correlated with higher cognitive and socioemotional skills; (b) labor earnings are correlated with cognitive and socioemotional skills as well as years of schooling; and (c) the earnings-skills correlations depend on respondents' migration status. The magnitudes of the correlations between schooling and skills on the one hand and earnings and skills on the other are consistent with a widespread concern that such skills are underproduced in the schooling system
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Viollaz, Mariana From Middle Class to Poverty: The Unequal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries
    Keywords: COVID-19 Job Loss ; Distributional Impact ; Economic Insecurity ; Economic Shocks ; Household Economic Welfare ; Household Poverty ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation
    Abstract: This study combines pre-COVID-19 household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance) income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, South Africa, and Turkiye. It first presents an in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections-a critical input in microsimulations-for 15 developing countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the actual employment level, but in four countries, where the labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the projections considerably underestimated job losses due to the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results for the five countries, which show declines in per capita household income or consumption across the distribution, a decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no other clear pattern of impacts across the different quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy, because it underestimated declines in earnings
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Economic and Sector Work Reports
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Integration ; Halloumi ; Hellim ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Turkish-Cypriot ; Women and Youth
    Abstract: The Turkish Cypriot economy (TCe) has struggled to recover since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. With a contraction of 16.2 percent in GDP in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic first took hold, the TCe experienced the most severe recession in its history, and the most severe recession among the economies of Europe. Moreover, just as other economies were beginning to recover, in 2021 the TCe underwent a phase of exceptional political uncertainty and numerous exogenous shocks, testing its resilience. With the emergence of new variants of the virus, the COVID-19 pandemic continued to adversely impact the TCe throughout 2021, with cases reaching a new peak at the end of 2021 despite the Turkish Cypriot (TC) administration's efforts to prevent the spread of the virus, together with its support for the health system, households, and companies. Furthermore, a new record low in average precipitation in 2021, a series of earthquakes at the beginning of 2022, and weak energy security, with a recent series of power outages experienced across the island, have all revealed the intrinsic vulnerabilities of the island to climate change and natural disasters. Building a competitive private sector would require reforming business regulations and procedures that are under the mandate of the TC administration, and that should be aligned with international best practices and the EU Acquis, irrespective of the broader context of the political economy. Special attention should be devoted to the regulation concerning imports and GL trade. Pre-permits and licenses imposed by the TC administration on imports, on top of regulatory uncertainty and other cumbersome procedures, contribute to increasing prices, penalizing consumers, and eroding domestic competitiveness. A dialogue framework between GC and TC private sectors could be established to support solutions to the long-standing constraints that have been impeding business cooperation across the GL, for the benefit of all Cypriots
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Banking Supervision ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Stabilization ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Macroprudential ; Microprudential
    Abstract: Over the past two years, the World Bank has been working with Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to assess the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic on their financial systems and provide guidance to the PIC prudential authorities on policy issues relating to strengthening the resilience of financial systems in the region. As part of this work program, the World Bank produced a series of seven deep dive papers on a range of issues relating to financial stability in the PICs. Each paper was presented during an online workshop with the prudential authorities of the PICs and followed by a Questions and Answers session. The papers in the series are: COVID-19 and financial stability: guidance on financial system surveillance in the pandemic, COVID-19 and stress testing, micro prudential and macro prudential policy: seeking the right balance, early intervention in banking supervision, recovery planning for banks, bank resolution, and financial safety nets This volume pulls together these deep dive papers while being mindful that each paper stands on its own. Yet, an integrated approach is needed in all these policy areas, and it is vital to tailor reforms to country specific circumstances This recognizes that, even in a stable financial system there will inevitably be periods of financial stress and that there is a need to ensure that frameworks are in place to address these events cost-effectively and in ways that preserve market discipline, avoid moral hazard and minimize fiscal risks. Private
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Insecurity ; Hydrocarbon Revenues ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Hydrocarbon ; Private Sector ; Resilience
    Abstract: The recovery continued in the first semester of 2022, supported by nonhydrocarbon activity and crude oil production. The continuing high level of global hydrocarbon prices prolonged the upturn of external balances. The budget deficit is expected to narrow moderately in 2022, as the strong increase in public expenditure compensates for most of the increase in revenues. The economic recovery should continue in 2023, supported by the nonhydrocarbon sector and public expenditure growth. The main risks to the macroeconomic outlook arise from fluctuations in global hydrocarbon prices, underscoring the importance of the Government's current reform program
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Evaluation
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Food Insecurity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters
    Abstract: Somalia is today among the poorest and most fragile countries in the world, facing myriad development challenges related to ongoing conflict, climate change, food insecurity, natural disasters, and displacement. Overlapping crises related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a prolonged drought, and macroeconomic shocks from rising food and fuel costs have worsened socioeconomic conditions (World Bank 2022). Seventy-one percent of Somalis lived in extreme poverty in 2021, compared with 28 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2021). Average life expectancy was 57.4 years, and maternal mortality stood at 734 for every 100,000 births (World Bank 2018d). The country's Sustainable Development Goal ranking was 160th out of 163. The Somalia Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the evolution of the World Bank Group's support over fiscal years (FY)13-22 and the extent to which the Bank Group adequately prepared for an eventual normalization of relations with Somalia, tailored its support to the conflict and fragility situation in Somalia and evolving circumstances and country priorities, and learned from experience. It will seek to inform the preparation of the next Somalia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and may be relevant to broader Bank Group engagement in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Infrastructure Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PPP
    Abstract: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can sometimes be perceived as a means for delivering infrastructure for free. A more nuanced but still inexact view is that they are a mechanism to overcome fiscal constraints. Some argue, perhaps rightly, that often governments enter PPP contracts without fully understanding their fiscal implications. These misconceptions lead to several challenges. There is evidence that fiscal sustainability is often overlooked or ignored by countries with PPP programs, with long-term fiscal implications the governments did not understand or manage well. Governments also struggle with perceptions that they are not fully transparent about the real, ultimate costs of PPP projects. This report aims to illustrate how to improve fiscal risk management and treatment of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities (FCCL) arising from PPP projects, to build better Infrastructure post-COVID-19. It intends to be a resource for World Bank client countries, including low income and fragile economies, to design their fiscal PPP management frameworks in a viable way that helps them develop their PPP programs while maintaining medium-to-long-term fiscal sustainability and resilience. With that in mind, Volume I highlights and contextualizes the main findings from a set of case studies that assessed the PPP fiscal risk management framework in select countries, and synthesizes the observable and qualitative results in managing the impact of crises, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on that, it also explores how this crisis has affected PPP projects and overall PPP programs, and suggests improvements to FCCL management frameworks in order to strengthen the capacity of countries to continue with their PPP programs in a sustainable fiscal manner. Volume II contains the detailed case studies on which Volume I is based
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Calice, Pietro Biodiversity and Finance: A Preliminary Assessment of Physical Risks for the Banking Sector in Emerging Markets
    Keywords: Climate Change Impact ; Economy and Climate Change ; Ecosystem Services ; Environment, Biodiversity, Biodiversity ; Environmental Risk ; Green Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nature Loss
    Abstract: Economic activity depends on a flourishing biodiversity and intact environment through the provision of ecosystem services. The depletion of these services poses physical risks for the financial sector. This paper attempts to measure the potential exposure of the banking systems in 20 emerging markets to nature loss through their lending portfolio. The results show that banks in emerging markets allocate around half of their credit portfolio to firms whose business processes are highly or very highly dependent on one or more ecosystem services. The results also provide initial and preliminary evidence that points to a negative correlation between country income level and dependency on ecosystem services. Accounting for indirect dependencies on ecosystem services via supply chains and trade could change this observed relationship, however. Furthermore, the highest dependencies on ecosystem services across countries tend to be on climate regulation and flood and storm protection, indicating the interconnectedness of climate change and nature loss
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Benetrix, Agustin The Elusive Link between FDI and Economic Growth
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Depth ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: This paper revisits the link between FDI and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Analysis of the early decades of the sample shows that there is no statistically significant correlation between FDI and growth for countries with average levels of education or financial depth. In line with previous contributions, this correlation is positive and statistically significant for countries with sufficiently well-developed financial sectors or high levels of human capital. However, the findings also show that the link between FDI and growth varies over time. For more recent periods, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and growth for the average country, with local conditions having a negative effect on this link. The paper also develops a novel instrument aimed at addressing the endogeneity of FDI inflows. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that the results are unlikely to be driven by endogeneity, and the results on the role of absorptive capacities may be due to the GVC revolution in the 1990s
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  • 71
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (17 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mayr, Kentaro Fossil Fuel Prices and Air Pollution: Evidence from a Panel of 133 Countries
    Keywords: Air Pollution ; Air Pollution Reduction ; Economic Statistics ; Energy Subsidies ; Environmental Impact ; Fossil Fuel Prices ; Fuel Subsidies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Fossil fuel combustion is a major contributor to urban air pollution, which in turn can lead to negative health outcomes. While the relationship between fuel prices and consumption has been extensively documented, the knock-on impact on air quality is less studied. Detailed knowledge on the price-pollution channel is valuable in designing effective pollution reduction measures. This paper analyzes the impact of gasoline, diesel, and coal prices on air pollution in 133 countries over a 19-year period. The dataset combines prices, consumption, country-specific variables, and annual average fine particulate matter concentrations in each country's capital city. Using the common correlated effects estimator, the analysis finds a robust negative relationship between gasoline and diesel prices and particle concentrations. A USD 1 increase in the average annual retail price of these common transport fuels is associated with at least a 22.2 microgram per cubic meter decrease in annual average fine particulate matter concentrations. In contrast, there is no significant effect for coal, which is often used in power generation and industrial applications, making it less responsive to short-term price variations. Overall, the results are in line with earlier studies, as price increases are correlated with improved urban air quality for transport fuels
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dinerstein, Marcos Corporate Tax Rates, Allocative Efficiency, and Aggregate Productivity
    Keywords: Corporate Tax Impact On Productivity ; Corporate Tax Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing Sector Tax Data ; Monopolistic Competition ; Productivity ; Tax Code ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of effective corporate tax rates on aggregate total factor productivity. Using Chilean manufacturing data, the paper documents a large dispersion in the effective tax rate faced by firms and a mass of firms facing a 0 percent tax rate. These empirical patterns are incorporated into a standard monopolistic competition model with corporate tax rates. The paper's quantitative findings show that the TFP gains between the economy implied by the Chilean tax code of 1998-2007 and a hypothetical economy without effective corporate tax rate inefficiencies are between 4 and 11 percent. The paper considers counterfactual policies in which all firms face the same tax rate and finds a monotonically decreasing relationship between the level of the tax rate and total factor productivity
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nie, Owen Banking Sector Risk in the Aftermath of Climate Change and Environmental-Related Natural Disasters
    Keywords: Banking ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters ; Nonperforming Loans ; Physical Risks
    Abstract: Climate change and environmental risks are increasingly recognized as a concern for financial authorities, yet empirical evidence of the damage for bank balance sheets is relatively scant. This paper provides preliminary estimates of the aggregate impact of physical risks from climate and environmental-related natural disasters on bank balance sheets across 184 countries over nearly 40 years. Using the local projection method, the analysis finds that severe disaster episodes lead to an increase in the level of systemwide non-performing loans, which is persistent over time. The paper complements the cross-country results with a country-specific example, which finds that typhoon damages lead to a significant increase in non-performing loans in the Philippines between 2011 and 2018. The results suggest a role for financial policy and supervision to monitor, assess, and mitigate climate and environmental related physical risks to the banking sector
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  • 74
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Civil Service Reform Roadmap ; Conflict and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Balance ; Fiscal Risk ; Government Revenue Composition ; Macro-Fiscal Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Public Expenditure Review ; Public Wage Bill ; Social Development ; Social Risk Management
    Abstract: Honduras remains one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the Western Hemisphere. Structural exposure to external shocks and natural hazards go hand in hand with high levels of crime, political instability, and a weak institutional and business environment. These problems have undermined the country's competitiveness and economic diversification, propelled emigration, and slowed progress toward raising incomes, reducing poverty, and tackling exclusion. Vulnerability to external shocks, natural hazards, and fiscal risks constitute important development challenges. The compound effect of the pandemic and two hurricanes in 2020 underscored the fragility of economic and poverty gains, and Honduras's exposure to potential reversals. Substantial fiscal risks coupled with insufficient risk management and inefficient and rigid public spending constrain the country's capacity to respond efficiently and effectively to shocks. The crucial challenge faced by Honduran policy makers is to reinforce fiscal resilience to achieve, to protect, and to sustain income and poverty gains. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) considers key fiscal challenges faced by policy makers to strengthen fiscal resilience and sustainability: significant fiscal risks and the high public wage bill
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Agnolucci, Paolo Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
    Keywords: Carbon Mitigation ; Carbon Tax ; Climate Change Economics ; Emissions Trading ; Fiscal Instrument ; Fossil Fuel Transition ; Fuel Subsidies ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development ; Total Carbon Price
    Abstract: While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing-such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms-remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal for carbon emissions and the incentive it creates This paper develops a methodology for calculating a total carbon price applied to carbon emissions in a sector, fuel, or the whole economy. It recognizes that rarely is a single carbon price applied across an economy; many direct carbon pricing instruments target specific sectors or even fuels, much like indirect taxes on fossil fuels; and carbon and fuel taxes can be substituted one for another. Tracking progress on carbon pricing thus requires following both kinds of price interventions, their coverage, and specific exemptions. This inclusive total carbon pricing measure can facilitate progress in discussions on minimum carbon price commitments and inform assessments of the pricing of carbon embodied in traded goods. Calculations across 142 countries from 1991 to 2021 indicate that although direct carbon pricing now covers roughly a quarter of global emissions, the global total carbon price is not that much higher than it was in 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. Indirect carbon pricing still comprises the lion's share of the global total carbon price, and it has stagnated. Taking these policy measures into account reveals that many developing countries-particularly net fuel importers-contribute substantially to global carbon pricing. Tackling fuel subsidy reform and pricing coal and natural gas emissions more fully would have a profound effect on aligning carbon prices across countries and sectors and with their climate costs
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  • 76
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Federalism ; Fiscal Performance ; Implementation Gaps ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Financial Management ; Revenue Sharing
    Abstract: The World Bank Nepal Fiscal Federalism Update aims to report annually on the progress of fiscal federalism in Nepal and identify implementation gaps. This first such update reviews the progress on fiscal federalism since the publication of the Federalism Capacity Needs Assessment (FCNA) in 2019
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: Kosovo has gained a creditable reputation for prudent macro-fiscal management; yet necessary structural reforms and related fiscal pressures lie ahead. The country's track record includes consistently high output growth rates, prudent fiscal deficits supported by fiscal rules, and one of the lowest public debt levels among peers. The Government was able to successfully weather the COVID-19 crisis and mitigate the impact of the ongoing inflationary crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine thanks to its healthy fiscal accounts and stable financial sectors. At the same time, however, the overlapping external shocks have highlighted the inherent volatility that mirrors Kosovo's structural limitations - especially in health, energy, and education - and accentuates gaps in both human and physical capital. The objective of this Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to help the government identify means for improving the structure and quality of public services, enhance the equity of government spending, and take a holistic view of policies that will affect financing needs over time. To do so, the PER has analyzed fiscal issues that have not been explicitly detailed in, or are in the process of being incorporated into, the medium-term expenditure framework and the economic reform program. The most notable issues include the urgently needed energy investments, the ramifications of the new law on public salaries on the budget, the sustainability of the untargeted social protection system, and possible pathways of the cost of pensions in light of expected changes to eligibility criteria, and the health spending and health financing conundrum. The PER also looks back at past World Bank PER recommendations and their implementation record, in the attempt to shine a light on measures that remain valid and could still be implemented
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; GCC ; Gulf Cooperation Council ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; NCDS ; Non-Communicable Diseases
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies performed strongly in 2022. Amidst a year of economic uncertainty marked by inflation, geopolitical crises, and supply chain insecurity, the GCC region registered remarkable GDP growth of 7.3 percent in 2022. Progress made on structural reforms are bearing fruits on the economy. Despite the uptick, inflation remains relatively muted in comparison to other high-income countries. Looking ahead, the GCC region is projected to grow at a slower pace. The main contributors to this growth are private consumption, fixed investments, and government expenditures through looser fiscal policy in response to high oil revenues. However, downside risks to the outlook are numerous. Special Focus: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) pose a major health burden to the population and governments of the GCC. NCDs are also a growing concern from an economic perspective. To mitigate the health and economic burden of NCDs, the region needs to scale up efforts to target the behavioral and environmental risk factors of NCDs. Effectively addressing NCDs requires a whole-of-government approach, and the effective implementation and monitoring of targeted, evidence-based solutions. Addressing the risk factors of NCDs requires an increased strategic focus on prevention over treatment, targeting of the young and adolescents, and the development and implementation of evidence-informed, cost effective, high impact interventions. Governance structures that can effectively mobilize, incentivize, and hold accountable the many non-health sectors in the implementation and monitoring of cost-effective interventions are critical
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  • 79
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy Crisis ; Energy Markets ; Environmental Fiscal Measures ; Food and Energy Prices ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: The six countries of the Western Balkans have seen their resilience tested over the last three years. Growth in the Western Balkan economies started strong in early 2022, before moderating toward year-end, but the impact of major shocks, such as electricity and heating outages, has been less severe than expected. Inflation surged to a two-decade high in 2022 in almost all economies, and price pressures remain elevated in early 2023. Higher food and energy prices have affected low-income households especially severely, resulting in a much slower pace of poverty reduction in 2022 despite universal government support. In the medium term, the Western Balkans continues to have a positive outlook, but reforms are needed to rebuild buffers, accelerate the green transition, and to address key structural challenges. The ongoing energy crisis has highlighted the need to accelerate the green transition across Europe, including in the Western Balkans. A key starting point in this regard is to accelerate the move toward carbon pricing and to increase the use of environmental fiscal measures that incentivize households and firms to shift toward lower carbon intensity with respect to economic activity
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gaps ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Township Level ; Wellbeing ; Work ; Workers
    Abstract: Myanmar's economy has been affected by numerous internal and external shocks since 2020. This report takes stock of the effect of these shocks on Myanmar's workers and their well-being using a reliable new source of household data. The report compares employment indicators from 2017 and 2022 to spotlight the extent of adversity faced by workers and households. Employment indicators for 2017 are based on official Myanmar living conditions survey (MLCS) data. MSPS provides reliable employment indicators at the sub-national level for 2022 that are comparable with baseline official data from 2017. MSPS provides reliable employment indicators at the sub-national level for 2022 that are comparable with baseline official data from 2017. While anchored in the MSPS, this report complements quantitative data with qualitative insights from the community welfare monitoring surveys, in particular the March 2023 round, conducted by the World Bank since 2020. This report is organized as follows: chapter 1 provides a snapshot of overall labor market changes since 2017 and focuses on disparities by gender, employment type, industry of occupation, and other worker characteristics. Chapter 2 analyzes similarities and differences in level employment indicators by state and regions. Chapter 3 concludes by spotlighting key township level characteristics that have influenced workers, their work prospects, and their overall well-being
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arroyo Marioli, Francisco Trading Places: Fundamentals, Speculation, and Information in US Corn Markets
    Keywords: Agricultural Demand ; Agricultural Productivity ; Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Commodities ; Corn Markets ; Corn Price Volatility ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Inflation ; Information Acquisition ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Efficiency
    Abstract: What explains the surge and plunge commodity markets have undergone in the past 20 years Are speculators to be blamed Do prices reflect full information These are the main questions addressed in this paper, in the context of the corn market. This paper formulates and calibrates two quantitative models of corn prices formation. The first model is designed to explain prices in the long run (annual frequency), while the second model applies to prices in the short run (quarterly frequency). For the long-run analysis, the paper finds that deviations of theoretical prices from observed ones are very small after 1996, and before 1996 they can be explained by government intervention. For the short-run analysis, the model is designed to mimic the typical seasonality seen in agricultural markets, incorporate supply and demand shocks as well as news shocks, and allows for speculative storage decisions. The paper finds that demand and supply fundamentals can account for around 52 percent of past price changes from 1975 to 2016. The model also estimates the impact of information shocks to explain an additional 18 percent of quarterly deviations. Finally, it finds that at least 30 percent of short-run price changes seem to have explanations other than supply or demand fundamentals or information, demonstrating that when analyzing quarterly data, prices do not always closely track fundamentals
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gassmann, Franziska Is the Magic Happening? A Systematic Literature Review of the Economic Multiplier of Cash Transfers
    Keywords: Cash Transfer ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Social Policy ; Local Economy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multiplier ; Poverty Alleviation ; Return ; Safety Net ; Social Accounting Matrix ; Social Assistance ; Social Protection ; Spillover Effect
    Abstract: The multiplier effects of cash transfers are receiving renewed attention globally. The existence of multipliers-or the generation of additional dollars for every one dollar injected as cash transfers-illuminates new aspects of the impacts of social assistance and holds the potential to redefine how "fiscal sustainability" is generally interpreted. However, multipliers also attract questions: are multipliers real and tangible How are multipliers estimated What method might be more suitable than others in different contexts What does the evidence reveal about those effects This paper briefly summarizes emerging findings from existing literature on low- and middle-income countries, including a total of 23 studies. The paper discusses the main estimation methods, such as social accounting matrix and econometric techniques; presents results on multipliers across studies; and draws lessons for future research and practice
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  • 83
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lerva, Benedetta The Monetary Value of Externalities: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Farmers
    Keywords: Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Economic Development ; Externalities ; Field Experiments ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Networks ; Technology Adoption ; Willingness To Pay
    Abstract: Understanding the value of the externalities associated with a technology is crucial to correctly estimate the welfare benefits of public policies and investments. Suboptimal adoption rates of agricultural technologies in low-income countries partly result from farmers not fully internalizing the positive externalities of adoption. This paper designs an experiment to measure the monetary value of the externalities of an agricultural pest-control technology; it elicits a farmer's willingness-to-pay for another farmer to adopt the technology, as a measure of the externalities generated by the other farmer. The findings show that externalities are large, as mean willingness-to-pay for others is equal to two days' wage, or half the willingness-to-pay for themselves. Willingness-to-pay for another farmer depends on social proximity (as it is easier to learn about the technology from closer connections), and the distance between their two plots (as pest-control is more beneficial for plot neighbors). Targeting the technology to farmers with geographically central plots and more socially connected farmers generates greater positive externalities and more social value than targeting farmers with the highest willingness-to-pay for themselves
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (91 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baquero, Juan Pablo Revisiting the Distributive Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Colombia
    Keywords: Distributiveimpact of Taxes ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty and Fiscal Policy ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending Impact Inequality ; Tax Law ; Transfer Impact on Poverty
    Abstract: Colombia is one of the most unequal countries in the region and the world. Given the redistributive role of fiscal policy, this study uses recent data from the 2021 Integrated Household Survey to explore the impacts of taxes and spending on poverty and inequality in Colombia. The study introduces innovations to the literature on Colombia, including an update of the fiscal microsimulation model to reflect the most recent economic context; an introduction of new fiscal policy parameters, such as gasoline subsidies and carbon taxes; and methodological improvements. The results show positive redistributive impacts, but these are considerably lower than those seen in other country members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Direct taxes and transfers reduce the Gini index from 0.543 to 0.505; and direct taxes, indirect taxes, subsidies, and monetary transfers reduce total poverty from 42.1 to 40.2 percent and extreme poverty from 16.1 to 11.7 percent. Direct taxes, transfers, and subsidies are progressive and contribute to poverty reduction, while indirect taxes such as the value-added tax or consumption tax are regressive and do not reduce poverty. This reflects a tax system that is progressive, but not progressive enough (with a low proportion of the population with high levels of income contributing), and cash transfer and subsidy programs that have room for improvement in their targeting
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  • 85
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Development Challenges ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; IFC Platforms ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; SDGs
    Abstract: Recurring development challenges and new compounding crises affecting client countries and firms constrain the ambition of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to contribute to attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The recurring challenges, including insufficient private sector participation in development financing, continue to affect emerging markets and developing economies and the firms within them. Two related initiatives-the IFC capital increase and the IFC 3.0 strategy-underpin IFC's goal to contribute to the SDGs by 2030. IFC's capital increase package was based on the IFC 3.0 strategy, which requires creating new markets through advisory and upstream services and mobilizing private capital from new sources and through new approaches (IFC 2017, 2018, 2020a). IFC has introduced a platforms approach to scale up its interventions in accordance with IFC 3.0 and the capital increase objectives. IFC defines platforms as thematic interventions-at a regional, global, or sectoral level-designed to address a specific development challenge (IFC 2022b). The main purpose of the evaluation is to assess whether the platforms approach offers IFC a means to achieve its capital increase and IFC 3.0 objectives while meeting the Board's and clients' expectations
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Challenges ; Inclusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure Review
    Abstract: The Union of the Comoros is a small-island country in Eastern Africa that recorded a modest economic expansion and suffered from various fiscal challenges during the last decade that had an impact on long-term growth. Limited fiscal space to address development needs explains the country's low human capital and poor quality infrastructure, which in turn hamper efforts to increase productivity and private sector growth. In addition, due to low performing State-owned enterprise (SOEs) and weakening economic performance, Comoros faces significant fiscal risks. The analysis presented in this PER supports the efforts of the government of Comoros to enhance public expenditure efficiency, create fiscal space, and limit fiscal risks. The analysis is designed to focus on public investment management (PIM) and public financial management (PFM), identify reforms that could yield fiscal and efficiency gains, and assess the governance of SOEs
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Financial Sector ; Fiscal Policy ; Growth and Poverty ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Rice Economy
    Abstract: In the last two years, Liberia's economic performance has improved. Inflation remained in single digits despite high global food and fuel prices and a relaxation in monetary and fiscal policies. Liberia's poverty rate is projected to have declined slightly in the last two years as GDP growth rebounds and inflation moderates. On the external side, Liberia's current account balance improved in 2022, thanks to the continued increase in mining export earnings. The increase in gold export in 2022 offset the increase in imports. Liberia's medium-term economic outlook is positive, but uncertainties remain. Even as it has been trying to recover from a decade of weak economic and social performance, Liberia's overall productivity and economic efficiency remain low, especially in vital sectors of the economy, including agriculture. Demographic trends, economic growth, and a strong preference for rice are the main drivers of demand. Yet, Liberia produces only one-third of its rice needs due to several constraints, including limited access to technology, inefficient farming practices, low public and private investments, and a fragmented value chain, among other factors that have kept productivity low. Amid low production, the increase in imported rice prices continues to fuel food insecurity, poverty, and vulnerabilities in Liberia. Domestic production would need to triple to satisfy local demand, but increasing production would require significant investments in the rice sector, as well as policy actions. This report provides some broad directions for policies
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict and Development ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal Policies ; Inflation ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: While armed clashed have declined, Libya continues to face fragmentation and fragility. The country's fragility is having far-reaching economic and social impact. Social conditions and public service delivery have been affected. Similar to numerous conflict-affected countries, the World Bank refrains from providing quantitative growth and macroeconomic forecasts. Despite the numerous challenges facing the country, the Libyan economy cab ne reconstructed and diversified by leveraging its substantial financial resources building on four critical pillars. The first is reaching a sustainable political agreement on the future of Libya. The second is the preparation of a shared vision on economic and social development that is based on accurate assessments of needs and aspirations. The third is the development of a modern and decentralized public financial management system that ensures adequate sharing of oil wealth and inter-governmental fiscal transfers as well as effective and transparent budget planning, execution, and reporting policies. The fourth is the establishment of a modern and comprehensive social policy that enables the reform of public administration and creates a clear distinction between social transfers and public wages
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Anti-Money Laundering ; Dollarization ; Financial Integrity ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money Laundering ; Tax Invasion
    Abstract: The systemic failure of Lebanon's banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarized cash-based economy, worth an estimated USD 9.86 billion or 45.7 percent of GDP in 2022 (Special Focus: Gauging the Size of the Cash Economy in Lebanon). A pervasive and growing dollarized cash economy is a major impediment to Lebanon's economic recovery. It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality, and prompts further tax evasion. Moreover, the increasing reliance on cash transactions also threatens to completely reverse the progress that Lebanon made pre-crisis towards enhancing its financial integrity by instituting robust anti-money laundering mechanisms in its commercial banking sector
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  • 90
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; European Union ; Inclusive Growth ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Challenges
    Abstract: Following a strong recovery after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, growth in the European Union (EU) is expected to sharply decelerate in 2023 as high inflation and increasingly tight monetary policy dampen economic activity. Despite considerable resilience, the EU economy is in a weakened spot following the string of overlapping crises since 2020, which have eroded macroeconomic buffers and left the economy vulnerable to additional negative shocks. Fiscal policy support, going forward, will need to be timely, targeted, time bound, and transparent to eventually support gradual fiscal consolidation. Part 1 of the EU regular economic report (RER) focuses on recent developments and the short-term outlook and risks. This part looks at inclusive growth trends in the EU as a whole and the four regions: Northern Europe (NE), Southern Europe (SE), Western Europe (WE) and Central and Southeast Europe (CEE). Depending on data availability, it also zooms in on a set of selected countries - Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Impacts ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Support ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policies
    Abstract: More than three years after the first COVID-19 case was discovered in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, it is time to take stock of the lasting effects-and opportunities-of the pandemic and identify which policies may have helped stem the economic losses suffered by households and firms. To do so, this regional report examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households and firms in six countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. This volume examines: (a) the links between impacts on firms and households, in particular through the employment channel, and (b) governments' fiscal responses to the COVID crisis, through transfers, subsidies, and taxes. It identifies and explains changes in household well-being by examining the economic effects of the pandemic on labor markets. As the source of employment and wage income, businesses have a direct role in determining jobs and earnings, and, indirectly, welfare, poverty, and inequality. When faced with a shock, firms responded by adjusting employment, reducing wages, increasing prices, and reducing services provided. All of these channels directly affected households' wellbeing. For this reason, the report focuses on firms in addition to households. Governments responded through various instruments, providing transfers and subsidies and lowering the tax burden to both households and firms
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  • 92
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brock, J. Michelle Inequality of Opportunity and Investment Choices
    Keywords: Economic Investment and Savings ; Equity and Development ; Income Distribution ; Inequality of Opportunity ; Investment Choices ; Investment Risk ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Peer Effects on Personal Investment ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Inequality of opportunity leads to misallocation of human capital and can affect economies via its impact on individual economic decision making. This paper studies the impact of inequality of opportunity on investment, using a laboratory experiment. The experiment randomized inequality of opportunity, then subjects chose to invest in a risky asset or savings. The results suggest that inequality of opportunity impacts investment choices only for people who are penalized by their circumstances and only once they learn the impact of inequality of opportunity on their relative position in the income distribution. This disadvantaged group invests more often and invests higher shares of their earnings than the control and advantaged groups. The fact that both inequality of opportunity and knowledge of relative position need to be present for the impact on investment to materialize points to the importance of peer effects. More broadly, the paper highlights the relevance of social preferences for understanding the effects of inequality of opportunity on individual decision making
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wang, Dieter Could Sustainability-Linked Bonds Incentivize Lower Deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon?
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Amazon Deforestation ; Ambitiousness ; Benchmarking ; Economic Investment and Savings ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Feasibiity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Performance Based Financing ; Sustainability-Linked Bonds
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new relative evaluation and benchmarking framework for performance linked financing instruments. It argues that the carrots and sticks of sustainability-linked bonds should not use key performance indicators which are solely tied to outcomes. Instead, they should be based on its issuer's level of performance with respect to a target. The paper defines performance as the part of the outcome that the issuer can influence. Otherwise, the issuer may be rewarded or penalized for factors outside their control. In such a case, principal-agent theory would predict a dilution of the performance-based instrument's incentives. This framework is then applied to deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon and estimate performance by accounting for the real effective exchange rate, global commodity prices, and prevalent deforestation trends. The results show that policy efforts helped lower deforestation in the 2000s, even after accounting for external factors. The trend reversal and acceleration in deforestation since 2012 are partly due to weaker policy and macroeconomic factors. Based on these results, the paper proposes an Amazon sustainability-linked bond, which could allow for a more effective mechanism to incentivize policy efforts. The paper also introduces the feasibility and ambitiousness matrix to set sustainability performance targets. The matrix is used to define the terms low-hanging fruits and long shots and to discuss why such targets are subject to the risk of greenwashing
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2203
    Keywords: Alcohol ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Health Taxes ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; High-Quality Health Care ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sugar-Sweetened Beverages ; Tax Revenue ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Tobacco ; Universal Health Coverage
    Abstract: This report has been prepared by the World Bank, at the request of the MoH, to support ongoing efforts to improve population health and revenue mobilization in the sector. The study estimates the health impacts of increasing taxation on SSBs, alcohol, and tobacco across gender and income-quintiles. The revenue potential of these taxes is also explored. The target audience for these findings includes senior policymakers and technical advisers in the MoH, Ministry of Economy, and Ministry of Finance (MoF). The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Chapter 2, the authors reviewthe current state of health and consumption taxes in Armenia. Chapter 3 outlines themethods used to estimate the change in tax revenue and consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and SSBs. Chapter 4 reports the analysis results, including the potentialadditional fiscal space and health gains. Finally, chapter 5 presents the conclusionsbased on the findings
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Seasonal Deprivation in the Sahel is Large, Widespread, and can be Anticipated
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Economic Insecurity ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Rainfed Agriculture ; Seasonal Poverty VARIATION ; Seasonality ; Welfare
    Abstract: Shocks and seasonality may have profound effects on poor households' wellbeing, especially in contexts like the Sahel where livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Understanding how seasonal variation affects Sahelian households is therefore essential for guiding policies that jointly seek to address chronic poverty, seasonality, and unexpected shocks. This paper uses harmonized household survey data from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Senegal, collected in two distinct waves in 2018 and 2019, to examine the extent of seasonal deprivation in the Sahel. These data reveal significant seasonal variation in poverty and wellbeing. Mean real monetary consumption is around 10.5 percent lower in the lean season. Moreover, rather than representing a reduction in dietary diversity, this drop is concentrated in staple foods (especially cereals), implying that seasonality brings about extreme forms of deprivation. Welfare losses may begin early in the lean season, even as early as April. When the data were collected in 2018/19, the climatic conditions were relatively benign and the security situation was more stable than today, so the effects of seasonality shown in this paper likely represent a lower bound. On policy, although initiatives currently focus on responding to unpredictable shocks, seasonal food insecurity could be better tackled by expanding social protection and providing regular transfers early in the lean season, when prices are lower and fewer households have succumbed to extreme deprivation. Seasonal variation happens every year and more can be done to support Sahelian households if there is information on how it will perennially threaten their wellbeing
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo-Abril, Monica Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Gender Equity in El Salvador
    Keywords: Commitment To Equity Model ; Conditional Cash Transfers ; Equity and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Spending ; Taxes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes fiscal incidence in El Salvador through a gender lens using the Commitment to Equity model. The study aims to identify fiscal policies that promote gender equality and facilitates evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at reducing gender disparities and promoting more inclusive fiscal policies. The analysis shows that fiscal policy is not pro-poor, as it can lead to a 3.1 percentage point increase in overall poverty using the USD 6.85 2017 purchasing power parity poverty line, disproportionately impacting particular groups. Households headed by single women with at least one child under six years old experience a poverty rate increase of 4.3 percentage points, reaching an alarming rate of 42.7 percent. An increasing gender gap in poverty rates is also observed among households where women are the sole providers. The results show that the net fiscal system can increase the incidence of poverty among this group by 4.3 percentage points. In comparison, it increases by only 2.3 percentage points among their male counterparts. A microsimulation exercise of potential fiscal reforms to improve the welfare position of these households reveals that a fiscal package eliminating indirect subsidies, social security exemptions for vulnerable groups, and conditional cash transfers to households that meet certain conditions could reverse these unfavorable outcomes
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  • 97
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Earthquake ; Economic Assistance ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Impact ; Environment ; Humanitarian Constraints ; Inflation ; Limited Response ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters
    Abstract: Twelve years into a devastating civil war, a one-in-two-century earthquake devastated northwestern Syria. The 7.6 Richter scale shock was the deadliest in Syria after the one that hit Aleppo in 1822. Using novel data sources, such as big data, this Syria Economic Monitor analyzes what happens to a conflict-affected economy in the months following a large natural disaster. The earthquake created large human losses and physical damages in the most contested areas of the country. The earthquake also had significant socioeconomic impacts, exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities. However, funding shortfall and humanitarian constraints impede response efforts. As a consequence, economic contraction in Syria is likely to deepen further post-earthquake
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ashwin, Julian Using Large Language Models for Qualitative Analysis can Introduce Serious Bias
    Keywords: Annotation ; Chatgpt ; Economic Theory and Research ; ICT Applications ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Large Language Models (LLMS) ; LLAMA 2 ; Machine Bias ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Qualitative Analysis ; Rohingya People ; Social Science Research ; Text as Data
    Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are quickly becoming ubiquitous, but the implications for social science research are not yet well understood. This paper asks whether LLMs can help us analyse large-N qualitative data from open-ended interviews, with an application to transcripts of interviews with displaced Rohingya people in Cox's Bazaar, Bangladesh. The analysis finds that a great deal of caution is needed in using LLMs to annotate text as there is a risk of introducing biases that can lead to misleading inferences. Here this refers to bias in the technical sense, that the errors that LLMs make in annotating interview transcripts are not random with respect to the characteristics of the interview subjects. Training simpler supervised models on high-quality human annotations with flexible coding leads to less measurement error and bias than LLM annotations. Therefore, given that some high quality annotations are necessary in order to asses whether an LLM introduces bias, this paper argues that it is probably preferable to train a bespoke model on these annotations than it is to use an LLM for annotation
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Decarbonization ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Inclusive Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net Zero Emissions ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty, Environment and Development ; Resilience
    Abstract: This report explores how climate action, in line with Uzbekistan's goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2060, interacts with the country's growth and development path. It further suggests priority actions to reduce carbon emissions and build resilience while supporting inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Resilience ; DRC ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Fragile Countries ; Low-Carbon ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) aims to support DRC's efforts to achieve its development goals within a changing climate by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the economy and highlighting policies and interventions needed to strengthen the country's climate resilience on many different levels. The report captures the interplay between DRC's development, climate challenges, and climate policies, with the objective of identifying synergies and tradeoffs. The CCDR supports the strategic vision of the Government of DRC as articulated in its 2030 National Strategic Development Plan ("Plan National Strategique de Developpement" (PNSD)) to reach middle-income country (MIC) status by 2035, and by 2050, become a diversified inclusive economy spurred by sustainable growth. It identifies the priorities needed in order to launch the most impactful, cost-effective actions to boost adaptation, build resilience, and foster low-carbon growth, while delivering on broader development goals. These are critical objectives, especially in fragile countries such as the DRC
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