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  • Kose, M. Ayhan  (9)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (9)
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (7)
  • Debt Markets  (4)
  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Schlagwort(e): Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Potential Growth Prospects : Risks, Rewards, and Policies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
    Schlagwort(e): Emerging Markets ; Growth Expectations ; Human Capital Accumulation ; Labor Force Participation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Production Function ; Slow Growth ; Social Development
    Kurzfassung: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario-by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year-if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10355
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    What Explains Global Inflation (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim What Explains Global Inflation
    Schlagwort(e): Access To Finance ; Demand Shock ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Global Inflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Drivers ; Interest Rate Shock ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Price ; Supply Shock
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. It estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. The authors report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion's share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10648
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Potential Growth : A Global Database (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (77 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth: A Global Database
    Schlagwort(e): Declining Growth Potential ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Global Growth Database ; Growth Expectations in Developing Economies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measures of Potential Growth ; Production Function
    Kurzfassung: Potential growth-the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment-is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10354
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 5
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    Online-Ressource
    What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? : Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
    Schlagwort(e): Business Cycle ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Disease Control and Prevention ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Trends ; Global Recession ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Pandemic Impact ; Private Debt ; Public Debt
    Kurzfassung: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid buildup of debt in emerging market and developing economies-dubbed the "fourth wave" of debt-had been underway. Because of the sharp increase in debt during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, the fourth wave of debt has turned into a tsunami and become even more dangerous. Second, five years after past global recessions, global government debt continued to increase. In light of this historical record, and given large financing gaps and significant investment needs in many countries, debt levels will likely continue to rise in the near future. Third, debt resolution has become more complicated because of a highly fragmented creditor base, a lack of transparency in debt reporting, and a legacy stock of government debt without collective action clauses. National policy makers and the global community need to act rapidly and forcefully ensure that the fourth wave does not end with a string of debt crises in emerging market and developing economies as earlier debt waves did
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9871
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    One-Stop Source : A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Ha, Jongrim One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation
    Schlagwort(e): Consumer Price Index ; Deflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Synchronization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices
    Kurzfassung: This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9737
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan The Aftermath of Debt Surges
    Schlagwort(e): Debt Burden ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Debt Service ; Debt Sustainability ; Economic Growth ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Repression ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Consolidation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development
    Kurzfassung: Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated debt levels increased the incidence of debt distress, particularly in EMDEs and particularly when financial market conditions turned less benign. This paper reviews an encompassing menu of options that have, in the past, helped lower debt burdens. Specifically, it examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. Some options may ultimately be ineffective unless vigorously implemented. Policy reversals in difficult times have been common. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can cast their net wider to cushion prospective shocks to EMDEs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9771
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 8
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    Online-Ressource
    What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing? (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (23 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Islamaj, Ergys What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing?
    Schlagwort(e): Aid Flows ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets and Capital Flows ; Concessional Finance and Global Partnerships ; Debt Flows ; Debt Markets ; Equity Capital ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Markets ; Foreign Direct Investment ; International Economics and Trade ; International Risk Sharing ; Official Development Assistance ; Remittances
    Kurzfassung: Cross-border capital flows are expected to lead to increased international risk sharing by facilitating borrowing and lending in global financial markets. This paper examines risk-sharing outcomes of various types of capital flows (foreign direct investment, portfolio equity, debt, remittance, and aid flows) in a large sample of emerging market and developing economies. The results suggest that remittances and aid flows are associated with increased international risk sharing. Other types of capital flows are not consistently correlated with better risk-sharing outcomes. These findings are robust to the use of different econometric specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9846
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 9
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    Online-Ressource
    A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
    Schlagwort(e): Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic Impact ; Pandemic Response ; Private Debt ; Sovereign Debt
    Kurzfassung: The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings. First, during the 2020 global recession, both global government and private debt levels rose to record highs, and at their fastest single-year pace, in five decades. Second, the debt-financed, massive fiscal support programs implemented during the pandemic supported activity and illustrated the benefits of accumulating debt. However, as the recovery gains traction, the balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation could increasingly tilt toward costs. Third, more than two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies are currently in government debt booms. On average, the current booms have already lasted three years longer, and are accompanied by a considerably larger fiscal deterioration, than earlier booms. About half of the earlier debt booms were associated with financial crises in emerging market and developing economies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9800
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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