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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van der Weide, Roy Inequality is Bad for Growth of the Poor (But Not for That of the Rich)
    Abstract: The paper assesses the impact of overall inequality, as well as inequality among the poor and among the rich, on the growth rates along various percentiles of the income distribution. The analysis uses micro-census data from U.S. states covering the period from 1960 to 2010. The paper finds evidence that high levels of inequality reduce the income growth of the poor and, if anything, help the growth of the rich. When inequality is deconstructed into bottom and top inequality, the analysis finds that it is mostly top inequality that is holding back growth at the bottom
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dillon, Andrew Agricultural Production, Dietary Diversity, and Climate Variability
    Abstract: Nonseparable household models outline the links between agricultural production and household consumption, yet empirical extensions to investigate the effect of production on dietary diversity and diet composition are limited. Although a significant literature has investigated the calorie-income elasticity abstracting from production, this paper provides an empirical application of the nonseparable household model linking the effect of exogenous variation in planting season production decisions via climate variability on household dietary diversity. Using exogenous variation in degree days, rainfall, and agricultural capital stocks as instruments, the effect of production on household dietary diversity at harvest is estimated. The empirical specifications estimate production effects on dietary diversity using both agricultural revenue and crop production diversity. Significant effects of agricultural revenue and crop production diversity on dietary diversity are estimated. The dietary diversity-production elasticities imply that a 10 percent increase in agricultural revenue or crop diversity results in a 1.8 percent or 2.4 percent increase in dietary diversity, respectively. These results illustrate that agricultural income growth or increased crop diversity may not be sufficient to ensure improved dietary diversity. Increases in agricultural revenue do change diet composition. Estimates of the effect of agricultural income on share of calories by food groups indicate relatively large changes in diet composition. On average, a 10 percent increase in agricultural revenue makes households 7.2 percent more likely to consume vegetables and 3.5 percent more likely to consume fish, and increases the share of tubers consumed by 5.2 percent
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dabalen, Andrew Estimating Poverty in the Absence of Consumption Data
    Abstract: In much of the developing world, the demand for high frequency quality household data for poverty monitoring and program design far outstrips the capacity of the statistics bureau to provide such data. In these environments, all available data sources must be leveraged. Most surveys, however, do not collect the detailed consumption data necessary to construct aggregates and poverty lines to measure poverty directly. This paper benefits from a shared listing exercise for two large-scale national household surveys conducted in Liberia in 2007 to explore alternative methodologies to estimate poverty indirectly. The first is an asset-based model that is commonly used in Demographic and Health Surveys. The second is a survey-to-survey imputation that makes use of small area estimation techniques. In addition to a standard base model, separate models are estimated for urban and rural areas and an expanded model that includes climatic variables. Special attention is paid to the inclusion of cell phones, with implications for other assets whose cost and availability may be changing rapidly. The results demonstrate substantial limitations with asset-based indexes, but also leave questions as to the accuracy and stability of imputation models
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Evans, David K Cost-Effectiveness Measurement in Development
    Abstract: As evidence from rigorous impact evaluations grows in development, there have been more calls to complement impact evaluation analysis with cost analysis, so that policy makers can make investment decisions based on costs as well as impacts. This paper discusses important considerations for implementing cost-effectiveness analysis in the policy making process. The analysis is applied in the context of education interventions, although the findings generalize to other areas. First, the paper demonstrates a systematic method for characterizing the sensitivity of impact estimates. Second, the concept of context-specificity is applied to cost measurement: program costs vary greatly across contexts-both within and across countries-and with program complexity. The paper shows how adapting a single cost ingredient across settings dramatically shifts cost-effectiveness measures. Third, the paper provides evidence that interventions with fewer beneficiaries tend to have higher per-beneficiary costs, resulting in potential cost overestimates when extrapolating to large-scale applications. At the same time, recall bias may result in cost underestimates. The paper also discusses other challenges in measuring and extrapolating cost-effectiveness measures. For cost-effectiveness analysis to be useful, policy makers will require detailed, comparable, and timely cost reporting, as well as significant effort to ensure costs are relevant to the local environment
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (14 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van der Weide, Roy GLS Estimation and Empirical Bayes Prediction for Linear Mixed Models with Heteroskedasticity and Sampling Weights
    Abstract: This note adapts results by Huang and Hidiroglou (2003) on Generalized Least Squares estimation and Empirical Bayes prediction for linear mixed models with sampling weights. The objective is to incorporate these results into the poverty mapping approach put forward by Elbers et al. (2003). The estimators presented here have been implemented in version 2.5 of POVMAP, the custom-made poverty mapping software developed by the World Bank
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stein, Daniel Dynamics of Demand for Rainfall Index Insurance
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic nature of rainfall insurance purchasing decisions, specifically looking at whether and why receiving an insurance payout induces a greater chance of purchasing insurance again the next year. This analysis uses customer data from the Indian micro-finance institution BASIX, and finds that receiving an insurance payout is associated with a 9 to 22 percentage points increased probability of purchasing insurance the following year. This affect appears to be driven by behavioral effects of receiving a payout, and cannot be explained by trust, learning, or direct effects of weather. Overall, low repurchasing rates even after payouts suggest that current rainfall index insurance products are likely to continue struggling to achieve significant sales at market prices
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gaarder, Marie M The Second Wave of Independence
    Abstract: In the 21st century, many developing countries will become emerging markets and will no longer be in need of the carrot-and-stick approach to development assistance most prevalent today: development financing made available conditional on certain policies and interventions. This paper suggests that interactions between development agencies and recipient governments are mostly about inputs deemed (but not known) to contribute to improvements in living standards in recipient countries, rather than outcomes. The paper argues that the development marketplace is beset by market imperfections because of externalities, principal-agent problems, and decision making under uncertainty, which not only make it difficult to achieve the right outcomes, but also take away incentives to learn about outcomes. A fundamental rethink of responsibilities and accountabilities in the development business would make sure that development outcomes are traded in the development marketplace. It would put recipient countries in charge of contracting development agencies to provide these outcomes. Development agencies would commit to and be held financially accountable for outcomes, that is, real improvements in welfare indicators. The paper describes the role of the evaluation function in aligning incentives with the ultimate goal of improving lives and provides examples of emerging solutions
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez The Impact of Credit Information Sharing Reforms on Firm Financing
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of introducing credit information-sharing systems on firms' access to finance. The analysis uses multi-year, firm-level surveys for 63 countries covering more than 75,000 firms over the period 2002-13. The results reveal that credit bureau reforms, but not credit registry reforms, have a significant and robust effect on firm financing. After the introduction of a credit bureau, the likelihood that a firm has access to finance increases, interest rates drop, maturity lengthens, and the share of working capital financed by banks increases. The effects of credit bureau reforms are more pronounced the greater the coverage of the credit bureau and the scope and accessibility of the credit information-sharing scheme. Credit bureau reforms also have a greater impact on firms' access to finance in countries where contract enforcement is weaker. Finally, there is some evidence that the effects of credit bureau reform are more pronounced for smaller, less experienced, and more opaque firms
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arcia, Gustavo School Autonomy and Accountability in Thailand
    Abstract: There is a consensus on the need for Thailand to reform its education system to be able to compete with other high performing countries in the region. In terms of learning outcomes, the most recent evidence from the Programme for International Student Assessment shows little improvement over time. This paper uses the World Bank's Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) approach in Thailand to contrast policy intent and policy implementation in school autonomy and accountability. The policy implementation data were obtained from a survey of school principals of the schools that participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment and merged the data sets. First, the study analyzes the gap between policy intent and policy implementation. Then it examines the effect of the gaps on various schooling outcomes while controlling for covariates. The analysis finds significant differences between the Systems Approach for Better Education Results indicators of policy intent and policy implementation in all areas assessed by the indicators. Schools in Thailand exercise more flexibility in their personnel management in practice than what is intended by policy; student assessments need to address issues of content, reliability, and validity and school accountability needs to improve the interpretation of student assessments to make schools more accountable. There is a positive association between the Programme for International Student Assessment scores and school autonomy and accountability
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bulman, David Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth
    Keywords: Wachstumspolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse
    Abstract: Is there a "middle income trap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels may be different. If countries struggle to transition from growth strategies that are effective at low income levels to growth strategies that are effective at high income levels, they may stagnate at some middle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a "middle income trap." This paper does not find evidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middle income level. However, it does find evidence that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels differ. These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-income countries may need to change growth strategies to transition smoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can be done smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middle income trap
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Qureshi, Zia The Post-Crisis Growth Slowdown in Emerging Economies and the Role of Structural Reforms
    Abstract: This paper constructs indicators of structural bottlenecks arising from barriers to open markets, obstacles to business operations, and constraints to access to finance. Empirical evidence from a sample of 30 emerging economies indicates that barriers to open markets and access to finance are significantly associated with differences in total factor productivity growth in the post-global financial crisis period compared with the pre-crisis period-with countries with fewer barriers showing stronger recovery and resilience. Barriers to access to finance are also associated with differences in the performance of private investment. Reforms to improve the policy framework in these areas, up to the level of the best-ranking countries, could offset the recently observed growth slowdown in emerging economies. These reforms would revitalize potential growth and mitigate the risks from external shocks associated with the global environment in the transition from the global financial crisis
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kostka, Genia Barriers to the Implementation of Environmental Policies at the Local Level in China
    Abstract: China's national leaders have recently made a priority of changing lanes from a pollution-intensive, growth-at-any-cost model to a resource-efficient and sustainable one. The immense challenges of rapid urbanization are one aspect of the problem. Central-local government relations are another source of challenges, since the central government's green agenda does not always find willing followers at lower levels. This paper identifies barriers to a more comprehensive implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China's urban areas and suggests ways to reduce or remove them. The research focuses particularly on the reasons for the gap between national plans and policy outcomes. Although environmental goals and policies at the national level are quite ambitious and comprehensive, insufficient and inconsistent local level implementation can hold back significant improvements in urban environmental quality. By analyzing local institutional and behavioral obstacles and by highlighting best-practice examples from China and elsewhere, the paper outlines options that can be used at the national and local levels to close the local "environmental implementation gap." The findings emphasize the need to create additional incentives and increase local implementation capacities
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten SME Finance in Africa
    Abstract: This paper uses cross-country firm-level surveys to gauge access to financial services and the importance of financing constraints for African enterprises. The paper compares access to finance in Africa and other developing regions of the world, within Africa across countries, and across different groups of firms. It relates firms' access to finance to firm and banking system characteristics and discusses policy challenges
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ersado, Lire Egypt
    Abstract: The paper examines the levels and trends in access to education and educational outcomes across generations of Egyptian youth. Examination of three cohorts of individuals aged 21 to 24 (born between 1964 and 1967, 1974 and 1977, and 1982 and 1985) shows that access to education has substantially improved during the last three decades. Completion rates increased by more than 60 percent at the preparatory level and 70 percent at the secondary level and the college completion rate more than doubled. However, significant inequities remain in access to education and educational outcomes. The fraction of never enrolled among the cohorts is still large, affecting more girls than boys, more rural than urban areas, and more children of parents with lower level of education and in elementary occupations, such as subsistence agriculture. The analysis of test-scores from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and national examinations shows that more than a quarter of learning outcome inequality is attributable to circumstances beyond the control of a student, such as parental education, socioeconomic background and place of birth. In Egypt, inequality of opportunity in learning outcomes emerges early and builds up progressively throughout the education levels. Access to higher education continues to remain significantly lower for children from rural areas and for those whose parents have a low level of education or are engaged in elementary occupations. Tracking into vocational and general secondary schools, which depends on a high-stakes national examination, and high and unequal levels of household expenditures in private tutoring substantially contribute to unequal learning outcomes
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Long-Run Growth in Ghana
    Abstract: Ghana' economic growth picked up in the early 2000s and has been exceptionally strong over the past few years, with price booms of its main commodity exports, gold and cocoa, and the initiation of commercial oil production in 2011. This paper examines recent econometric evidence on Ghana' long-term growth and evaluates its sustainability. The empirical evidence surveyed finds that Ghana' main growth drivers were investment, oil, and mineral rents, while government consumption acted as a growth retardant. Based on various scenarios for its determinants, per capita GDP growth rates are predicted to be between 3.5 and 4.5 percent for 2014-34. Nevertheless, the predictions are subject to considerable uncertainty associated with the expected trends and volatility of the drivers of growth, particularly to sustaining investment levels and external factors such as commodity prices and international capital flows. A growth decomposition exercise shows that Ghana' past growth was led by capital accumulation, which will be difficult to sustain given the high current account deficits and the volatility of capital flows. Hence, a switch toward a productivity-based growth strategy, instead of the investment-led growth strategy of the past, is the only viable alternative to sustain the recent high growth rates. For that, Ghana needs focus on policies that enhance government effectiveness and public spending efficiency. To mitigate the risk of falling into the so-called growth traps like many other countries, Ghana must resolve its macroeconomic imbalances and resume the institutional reform to enhance the quality of institutions and make growth more inclusive
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ferré, Céline Can Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Education and Nutrition Outcomes for Poor Children in Bangladesh?
    Abstract: There is an increasing recognition that investment in human development at an earlier age can have a significant impact on the lifetime earnings capacity of an individual. This notion is the basis for the popularity of conditional cash transfer programs to help boost child health and education outcomes. The evidence on the impact of conditional cash transfers on health and education outcomes, however, is mixed. This paper uses panel data from a pilot project and evaluates the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption, education, and nutrition outcomes among poor rural families in Bangladesh. Given implementation challenges the intervention was not able to improve school attendance. However the analysis shows that the pilot had a significant impact on the incidence of wasting among children who were 10-22 months old when the program started, reducing the share of children with weight-for-height below two standard deviations from the World Health Organization benchmark by 40 percent. The pilot was also able to improve nutrition knowledge: there was a significant increase in the proportion of beneficiary mothers who knew about the importance of exclusively breastfeeding infants until the age of six months. The results also suggest a significant positive impact on food consumption, especially consumption of food with high protein content
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rijkers, Bob Which Firms Create the Most Jobs in Developing Countries?
    Abstract: This paper examines private sector job creation in Tunisia over the period 1996-2010 using a unique database containing information on all registered private enterprises, including self-employment. In spite of stable growth of gross domestic product, overall net job creation was disappointing and firm dynamics were sluggish. The firm size distribution has remained skewed toward small firms, because of stagnation of incumbents and entrants starting small, typically as one-person firms (self-employment). Churning is limited, especially among large firms, and few firms manage to grow. Post-entry, small firms are the worst performers for job creation, even if they survive. Moreover, the association between productivity, profitability, and job creation is feeble, pointing towards weaknesses in the re-allocative process. Weak net job creation thus appears to be due to insufficient firm dynamism rather than excessive job destruction
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Maimbo, Samuel Munzele Interest Rate Caps around the World
    Abstract: Among other common forms of government financial control, caps on interest rates have been declining over the past several decades as most industrialized countries and a rising number of developing countries continue liberalizing their financial policies. However, in several countries the last financial crisis reopened the debate on interest rate controls as a tool for consumer protection. This paper undertakes a stock-taking exercise to determine the number of countries currently capping interest rates on loans. The paper looks at the main characteristics of the regimes countries have used, including the source of rate-setting authority, the methodology, and the criteria for establishing the cap. The paper finds at least 76 countries around the world currently use some form of interest rate caps on loans - all with varying degrees of effects, including the withdrawal of financial institutions from the poor or from specific segments of the market, an increase in the total cost of the loan through additional fees and commissions, among others. The paper concludes that there are more effective ways of reducing interest rates on loans over the long run and of improving access to finance: measures that enhance competition and product innovation, improve financial consumer protection frameworks, increase financial literacy, promote credit bureaus, enforce disclosure of interest rates, and promote microcredit products. Such measures should be implemented in an integrated manner. However, if caps are still considered a useful policy tool for reducing interest rates on loans and increasing access to finance, they should be implemented in accord with the caveats described in the paper
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Geginat, Carolin Transparent Government and Business Regulation
    Abstract: This paper presents new indicators for 185 economies measuring the accessibility of business regulatory information. The paper shows that the new data can serve as meaningful proxies for the overall transparency of governments and the new data have explanatory power for the quality of business regulation. The paper finds the regulatory environment to be most opaque in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa, where businesses can often only access basic regulatory information by meeting a government official. By contrast, in countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, access is more direct via websites, public billboards, and brochures. Moreover, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies are more consistent in their transparency efforts across government agencies. The paper also finds that while resources as proxied by income levels play some role in explaining why some economies make more information easily accessible than others, those resources are not the only determining factor; regardless of income, more democratic governments tend to make greater transparency efforts. Finally, easier access to basic regulatory information is associated with greater regulatory quality and less corruption
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Deininger, Klaus Inheritance Law Reform, Empowerment, and Human Capital Accumulation
    Abstract: This paper uses evidence from three Indian states, one of which amended inheritance legislation in 1994, to assess first- and second-generation effects of inheritance reform using a triple-difference strategy. Second-generation effects on education, time use, and health are larger and more significant than first-generation effects even controlling for mothers' endowments. Improved access to bank accounts and sanitation as well as lower fertility in the parent generation suggest that inheritance reform empowered females in a sustainable way, a notion supported by significantly higher female survival rates
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Yamauchi, Futoshi Roads, Labor Markets, and Human Capital
    Abstract: This paper uses household panel data from rural Indonesia to examine the impact of road quality on labor supply and wages. First, road projects are found to increase transportation speed. Second, the empirical results from intra-village variations of household endowments and labor market behavior show that an increase in transportation speed raised wages in nonagricultural and agricultural employment, and was associated with a decline in working time in agricultural employment, for households whose members are relatively educated. The findings support potential complementarity between road quality and education
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dobronogov, Anton Containing Volatility
    Abstract: An abundance of natural resources is both an opportunity and a challenge for developing countries. Several resource-rich, low-income countries receive amounts of foreign aid that are similar to or larger than their actual or potential revenues from natural resources. In such countries, the donors may have an opportunity to help a government to use its resource revenues productively and minimize the magnitude of risks created by resource rents. Development of aid instruments tailored for such purposes might be helped by model-based analysis of the effects of foreign aid on resource-rich, low-income economies and its interactions with the flows of natural resource revenues. This paper develops a growth model a la Barro in which the government receives windfalls (from natural resources and foreign aid) and rent-seeking agents contest for public funds. The key conclusion is that making aid countercyclical helps to achieve higher economic growth, and so does conditioning disbursements on enhancement of public capital. Introducing elements of insurance in the design of both aid products financing investments in infrastructure and social services and supporting policy and institutional reforms may help to achieve both of these objectives
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (152 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Böhringer, Christoph The Environmental Implications of Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization
    Abstract: This report investigates the environmental impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. A 10-region, 30-sector model of the Russian economy is developed. The model is innovative and more accurate empirically in that it contains foreign direct investment, imperfectly competitive sectors, and endogenous productivity effects triggered by World Trade Organization accession along with environmental emissions data in Russia for seven pollutants that are tracked for all 30 sectors in each of the 10 regions. The decomposition analysis shows that despite the fact that World Trade Organization accession allows Russia to import better technologies and reduce pollution from the “technique effect,” on balance World Trade Organization accession alone will increase environmental pollution in Russia through a shift toward dirty industries (the “composition effect”) and the expansion of output with its associated increase in pollution (“scale effect”). The paper assesses the costs of three types of environmental regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent. The paper simultaneously implements a central case scenario with each of the carbon dioxide emission reduction policy initiatives. The analysis finds that the welfare gains of World Trade Organization accession are large enough to pay for the costs of any of the three environmental abatement policies, while leaving a net welfare gain. But the political economy implications are that the non-market-based policies are more costly and the command and control policy, which is not well targeted, is very costly. Based on a constant returns to scale model, the estimated welfare gains are insufficient to finance the costs of environmental regulation
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ananthpur, Kripa The Anatomy of Failure
    Abstract: Programs that induce citizen participation to improve the quality of government at the local level are the subjects of large amounts of funding and intense debate. This paper combines a randomized control trial of a citizenship training and facilitation program in rural India, with an in-depth, four-year ethnography of the intervention to understand the underlying mechanisms of change. The quantitative data show no impact from the intervention. Household and village survey data from 100 treatment and 100 control villages show considerable improvement across a wide variety of governance and participation indicators over time, but the differences in the changes between treatment and control villages are not statistically significant. The detailed qualitative data from a 10 percent subsample allow us to unpack the reasons why the intervention “failed,” highlighting the role of variations in the quality of facilitation, lack of top-down support, and difficulties with confronting the stubborn challenge of persistent inequality. However, the qualitative investigation also uncovered subtle treatment effects that are difficult to observe in structured surveys. The paper thus demonstrates that a concerted effort to use “thick description” to uncover the process of change using careful and detailed qualitative work can add value to standard impact evaluations
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (69 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Giné, Xavier Money or Ideas?
    Abstract: This paper identifies the relative importance of human and physical capital for entrepreneurship. A subset of rural microfinance clients were offered eight full time days of business training and the opportunity to participate in a loan lottery of up to Rs. 100,000 (USD 1,700), about seven times the average loan size. The study finds that business training increased business knowledge, reduced business failure, improved business practices and increased household expenditures by about
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Battaile, Bill Services, Inequality, and the Dutch Disease
    Abstract: This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences. Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (15 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Basu, Kaushik Ponzis
    Abstract: Ponzis are among the most ubiquitous and least understood phenomena of economic life. They acquired a certain salience with the global financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of Bernie Madoff's celebrated Ponzi scheme. This paper explains the structure of Ponzi schemes and goes on to argue that what makes this such a troubling phenomenon is its ability to be camouflaged amidst legitimate practices. It is shown, for instance, that the common practice of giving stock options to employees could be a potential Ponzi that allows corporations to flourish for a while by borrowing from its own future. The paper goes on to discuss the need for intelligent regulation to incise harmful Ponzis (not all Ponzis are harmful) while taking care not to damage other legitimate activities that surround them
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P Trade Flows and Trade Disputes
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new data set and establishes a set of basic facts and patterns regarding the trade that countries fight about under World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paper characterizes the scope of products, as well as the levels of and changes to the trade values, market shares, volumes, and prices for those goods that eventually become subject to WTO litigation. The first result is striking heterogeneity in the level of market access at stake across disputes: for example, 14 percent of cases over disputed import products feature bilateral trade that is less than
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Messina, Julián Evolving Wage Cyclicality in Latin America
    Abstract: A vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients is used to examine the evolution of wage cyclicality in four Latin American economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, during the period 1980-2010. Wages are highly pro-cyclical in all countries up to the mid-1990s except in Chile. Wage cyclicality declines thereafter, especially in Brazil and Colombia. This decline in wage cyclicality is in accordance with declining real-wage flexibility in a low-inflation environment. Controlling for compositional effects caused by changes in labor force participation along the business cycle does not alter these results
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kanbur, Ravi How Useful is Inequality of Opportunity as a Policy Construct?
    Keywords: Bildungschancen ; Einkommensverteilung ; Sozialer Indikator ; Ethik
    Abstract: The academic literature on equality of opportunity has burgeoned. The concepts and measures have begun to be used by policy institutions, including in specific sectors such as health and education. It is argued that one advantage of focusing on equality of opportunity is that policy makers are more responsive to that discourse than to equality of outcomes per se. This paper presents a critique of equality of opportunity in the policy context. Although the empirical analysis to which the literature has given rise is useful and is to be welcomed, current methods for quantifying and implementing the concept with a view to informing the policy discourse face a series of fundamental questions that remain unanswered. Without a full appreciation of these difficulties, the methods may prove to be misleading in the policy context
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kojo, Naoko C Demystifying Dutch Disease
    Abstract: This paper examines the theory of Dutch disease and its implications for practical policy questions. Dutch disease is a term that is well-known to economists and development practitioners. But it is also a concept that is often conflated with "resource curse" and misinterpreted as a "disease" that necessarily causes adverse impacts on the economy. The paper points out that many of the seemingly well-established arguments in this field are not necessarily grounded in theory or empirical evidence. Great care is needed in diagnosing Dutch disease and formulating policy prescriptions based on the theoretical framework, given the restrictive assumptions that may not be fully applicable and the limited relevance to today's inextricably intertwined trade flows. Countries facing large inflows of foreign currency should focus on safeguarding the domestic economy from the volatility of international commodity and capital markets, and building robust institutions to reduce adjustment costs and boost broader competitiveness. A policy package needs to be comprehensive, covering macroeconomic and structural policy measures, and should be calibrated to target country specific concerns. Policies may need to be adjusted continuously in view of the evolving dynamics of the global and domestic economic environment
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Scheierling, Susanne M How to Assess Agricultural Water Productivity?
    Abstract: Given population and income growth, it is widely expected that the agricultural sector will have to expand the use of water for irrigation to meet rising food demand; at the same time, the competition for water resources is growing in many regions. As a response, it is increasingly recommended that efforts should focus on improving water productivity in agriculture, and significant public and private investments are being made with this goal in mind. Yet most public communications are vague on the meaning of agricultural water productivity, and on what should be done to improve it. They also tend to emphasize water as if it were the only input that mattered. This paper presents findings from a first attempt to survey the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature with regard to the explicit inclusion of water aspects in productivity and efficiency measurements, with the aim of contributing to the discussion on how to assess and possibly improve agricultural water productivity. The focus is on studies applying single-factor productivity measures, total factor productivity indices, frontier models, and deductive models that incorporate water. A key finding is that most studies either incorporate field- and basin-level aspects but focus only on a single input (water), or they apply a multi-factor approach but do not tackle the basin level. It seems that no study on agricultural water productivity has yet presented an approach that accounts for multiple inputs and basin-level issues. However, deductive methods do provide the flexibility to overcome many of the limitations of the other methods
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dutz, Mark A Public and Private Investments in Innovation Capabilities
    Abstract: This paper assembles novel data on the Chilean wine industry to investigate the role of investments in knowledge capital on sales growth in domestic and international markets. The study uses archival data collected from the Government of Chile to compile and categorize public expenditures and programs supporting the Chilean wine industry over the period of 1990-2012 into investment in different types of knowledge capital. These spending categories are related to industry-level sales growth. The paper finds that the most important correlate is spending on research and development. The study also uses data from a new survey of Chilean wine firms to capture information on firm-specific investments in knowledge capital. The findings show that investments in collaboration capital, in particular hiring foreign consultants, as well as participation in international wine fairs are the strongest correlates of growth in export sales, while spending on aspects of branding (local advertising and brand design) are the strongest correlates of domestic market sales growth
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Devarajan, Shantayanan Budget Rules and Resource Booms
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger. The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource price change is positive and temporary, the best strategy is to save the revenue windfall in a sovereign fund, and use the interest income from the fund to raise citizens' consumption over time. This strategy is preferred to investing in public capital domestically, even when private investment benefits from an enhanced public capital stock. Domestic investment raises the prices of domestic goods, leaving less money for government to transfer to households; public investment is not 100 percent effective in raising output. In the presence of a negative temporary resource price change, however, the best strategy is to cut public investment. This strategy dominates other methods, such as trimming government transfers to households, which reduces consumption directly, or borrowing, which incurs an interest premium as debt rises. In the presence of persistent (positive and negative) shocks, the best strategy is a mix of public investment and saving abroad in a balanced regime that provides a natural insurance against both types of price shocks. The combination of interest income from the sovereign fund, transfers to households, and output growth brought about by public investment provides the best protective mechanism to smooth consumption over time in response to changing resource prices
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lecuyer, Oskar Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs
    Abstract: This paper studies the optimal transition from existing coal power plants to gas and renewable power under a carbon budget. It solves a model of polluting, exhaustible resources with capacity constraints and adjustment costs (to build coal, gas, and renewable power plants). It finds that optimal investment in renewable energy may start before coal power has been phased out and even before investment in gas has started, because doing so allows for smoothing investment over time and reduces adjustment costs. Gas plants may be used to reduce short-term investment in renewable power and associated costs, but must eventually be phased out to allow room for carbon-free power. One risk for myopic agents comparing gas and renewable investment is thus to overestimate the lifetime of gas plants-e.g., when computing the levelized cost of electricity-and be biased against renewable power. These analytical results are quantified with numerical simulations of the European Commission's 2050 energy roadmap
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aker, Jenny C Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets
    Keywords: Telefonnetz ; Agrarmarkt ; Effizienzmarkthypothese ; Agrarpreis ; Westafrika
    Abstract: Mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities, but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets. Building on the work of Aker (2010), this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in Niger. The results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea, a semi-perishable commodity. These effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year. The introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum, two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers. There are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on traders' gross margins or producer price levels, but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra-annual price variation for cowpea. These results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calì, Massimiliano Integrating Border Regions
    Abstract: Deeper regional integration can be beneficial especially for regions along international borders. It can open up new markets on opposite sides of borders and give consumers wider access to cheaper goods. This paper uses data from five contiguous districts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh in the northeast of the subcontinent to measure the degrees of trade complementarity between districts. The paper illustrates that the regions are underexploiting the potential of intraregional commerce. Price wedges of up to 90 percent in some important consumption products along with measures of complementarity between households' production and consumption suggest the potential for relatively large gains from deeper trade integration. Furthermore, an examination of a specific supply chain of tea highlights factors that help industries scale up, aided by institutions such as an organized auction and decent physical and legal infrastructure. However, districts alike in geography but located across international boundaries face different development prospects, suggesting that gains from reduced "thickness of borders" would not accrue automatically. Much rests on developing intrinsic industry competitiveness at home, including the reform of regulatory and business practices and infrastructural bottlenecks that prevent agglomeration of local economies
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  • 38
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Awasthi, Rajul Can Tax Simplification Help Lower Tax Corruption?
    Abstract: This paper seeks to find empirical evidence of a link between tax simplification and corruption in tax administration. It attempts to do this by first defining "tax simplicity" as a measurable variable and exploring empirical relationships between simpler tax regimes and corruption in tax administration. Corruption in tax administration is calculated with data series from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey Database. The focus is on business taxes. The study includes 104 countries from different income groups and regions of the world. The time period is 2002-12. The empirical findings support the existence of a significant link between the measure of tax corruption and tax simplicity, so a less complex tax system is shown to be associated with lower corruption in tax administration. It is predicted that the combined effect of a 10 percent reduction in both the number of payments and the time to comply with tax requirements can lower tax corruption by 9.64 percent. Some interesting regional differences are observed in the results. Similarly, the income level of countries plays an important role in determining the impact of tax simplification on tax corruption; specifically, the link is stronger for lower-income level countries. The positive link between tax simplicity and lower tax corruption has useful policy implications
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bussolo, Maurizio Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages
    Abstract: Aging of populations and convergence between developed and developing countries in per capita incomes are shaping the evolution of saving, investment, capital flows, and, in particular, the cost of capital. When considering these trends, the existing literature argues for either continued, low interest rates, or sharply rising ones. This paper presents an alternative view: modest rises in interest rates, which result from a combination of increases in the global weight of high-saving developing economies (limiting declines in global saving), and decelerations in the rate of growth in developing countries (constraining upward pressure in global investment). For the majority of countries, slowing capital demand resulting from decelerating growth, coupled with structural changes that influence its attractiveness as a destination for capital, moderate increases in interest rates. Changes in key assumptions do not alter this view. More specifically, the small rise in interest rates persists even in a scenario where growth in developing countries decelerates more slowly, or when elasticities governing the behavior of saving and investment are varied
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Aga, Gemechu Ayana International Remittances and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: This paper uses World Bank survey data, including about 10,000 households in five countries-Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda-to investigate the link between international remittances and households' financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper finds that receiving international remittances increases the probability that the household opens a bank account in all the five countries. This result is robust to controlling for the potential endogeneity of remittances, using as instruments indicators of the migrants' economic conditions in the destination countries
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iootty, Mariana Stylized Facts on Productivity Growth
    Abstract: Drawing on a representative sample of firms, this paper presents some microeconomic evidence on the productivity growth process in Croatia since the onset of recession (2008-12). Four types of results are highlighted. First, there is a persistent (and increasing) heterogeneity in the performance of Croatian firms along outcome measures. Second, Croatia lags behind regional peers in entrepreneurship measures, which suggests a comparatively lower economic dynamism. Third, the lack of dynamism displayed by the Croatian economy is confirmed when looking at the firm entry and exit process: the analytical results point to reduced firm dynamism compared with Croatia's peers in Europe and Central Asia. Fourth, the contribution of net entry to overall productivity growth in Croatia is surprisingly negative. This is contrary to what would be expected based on the literature and suggests that the process of "destructive creation" in Croatia has not been efficient, as the market might be eliminating firms that are potentially productive. Policies that foster market contestability should be pursued, especially policies aiming at better product market regulation (such as liberalization of entry into the service sector, particularly retail and infrastructure). Measures to help finance entrepreneurship (in promising sectors) should be used to support enhancements in firm productivity. In addition, appropriate bankruptcy rules play a key role by easing the exit process and allowing low-productive units to leave the market and free resources that can be better used by other, more efficient, firms
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Morales, Alvaro Pedraza Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management
    Abstract: This paper studies the portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer-based underperformance penalty. Evidence is taken from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer-based underperformance penalty, known as the Minimum Return Guarantee. The trading behavior by the managers is studied before and after a change in the strictness of the guarantee in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter minimum return guarantee results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. These managers rebalance their portfolios by buying securities in which they are underexposed relative to their peers, as opposed to selling assets in which they are overexposed. Overall, the results suggest that incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks play an important role in the portfolio allocation of these funds
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: van den Berg, Caroline The Drivers of Non-Revenue Water
    Abstract: To many, reducing water losses is seen as key to more sustainable water management. The arguments to reduce water losses are compelling, but reducing water losses has turned out to be challenging. This paper applies a panel data analysis with fixed effects to determine the major drivers of non-revenue water, which is define as the volume of water losses per kilometer of network per day. The analysis uses data from the International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities, covering utilities in 68 countries between 2006 and 2011. The analysis finds that non-revenue water is driven by many factors. Some of the most important drivers are beyond the control of the utility, such as population density per kilometer of network, the type of distribution network, and the length of the network, which are largely the result of urbanization and settlement patterns in the localities that the utility serves. The opportunity costs of water losses are also key in explaining what drives non-revenue water. The paper finds that very low opportunity costs of water losses have an adverse effect on the reduction of non-revenue water. Country fixed effects turn out to be important, meaning that the environment in which the utility operates has an important impact on non-revenue water levels. An important conclusion is that the design of non-revenue water reduction programs should study the main drivers of non-revenue water to provide utility managers with a better understanding of what can be achieved in terms of non-revenue water reduction and whether the benefits of these reductions exceed their costs
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  • 44
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Artuc, Erhan Export Performance and Geography in Croatia
    Abstract: This paper uses the gravity model to analyze whether the varying export performance of Croatian counties can be explained by their proximity to border gates, ports, and other county-specific characteristics. The analysis finds that longer distances to border gates increase trade frictions significantly for many product categories, although these frictions have been decreasing between 2007 and 2012. The paper analyzes the county specific factors that are associated with variation in export performance, net of distance. Results show that exports are strongly and positively correlated with motorway and road density, the size of the labor force, low-skill ratio, and the number of patents. These variables are also associated with a greater diversity of exports in terms of products and destinations. Several general policy implications are highlighted. The significant association between motorway and road density and export volume, number of destinations, as well as the diversity of exported products may indicate that improvements in connectivity and facilitation of transport could still play a significant role in enhancing regional trade outcomes. Similarly, good performance in research and development may significantly help to spur competitiveness and allow local producers to enter new markets in products and destinations, which in turn can increase the level of diversification and boost resilience to global economic shocks
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gharafutdinova, Gulnaz Governors and Governing Institutions
    Abstract: The paper uses the latest 2011 round of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey for the Russian Federation, which for the first time was designed to be representative of Russian regions. The paper takes a closer look at regional-level factors influencing the business environment in Russia and, more specifically, conditions that favor the emergence of symbiotic relations between regional authorities and regional businesses. Considering the argued significance of informal rules, norms, and agreements for the regional-level business environment in Russia, the paper uses proxy variables such as tenure and origin of regional governors to identify how these rules are being institutionalized. The findings reveal that, at least in case of Russia, juxtaposing the state and business actors as separate and opposed to each other may overstate the distinction between these two groups of actors and understate the fact that many localities in Russia have witnessed the emergence of mutually beneficial state-business arrangements. Defining whether these arrangements are beneficial or harmful to regional development is beyond the scope of this exploratory paper
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Knack, Stephen Interactions among Donors' Aid Allocations
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of the World Bank's exogenously-determined income threshold for eligibility for concessionary International Development Association (IDA) loans on the allocations of bilateral donors. The donors might interpret the World Bank's policies and allocations across recipients as informative signals of where their own aid might be used most effectively. Alternatively, other donors might compensate for reduced IDA allocations by increasing their own aid. This paper shows that the signaling effect dominates any crowding out effects. The analysis uses panel data with country fixed effects and finds that aid from the bilateral donor countries is significantly reduced after countries cross the IDA income cutoff, controlling for other determinants of aid. Allocations by other donors are not sensitive to actual IDA disbursements, only to the IDA income threshold. Because crossing the income cutoff for eligibility significantly reduces aid levels from other donors as well as from the World Bank, government officials in recipient countries may have an incentive to manipulate their national accounts data to understate per capita income when it is near the IDA threshold. However, tests for "bunching" of observations just below the income threshold find no evidence to support data manipulation concerns. These findings suggest that graduation from IDA should be an even more gradual process than it already is, to dampen the sharp drops in aid experienced by countries after crossing an arbitrary income threshold
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (17 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woutersen, Tiemen Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Microcredit Programs on Household Income and Net Worth
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the utilization of microcredit programs has a significant impact on the income and net worth of the participants. Several micro finance institutes are optimistic on the beneficial effects of microcredit programs. Others describe microcredit with interest rates in excess of 20 percent as a poverty trap. This paper uses more than 20 years of panel data on households in Bangladesh to estimate bounds on the causal effects of microcredit programs. The analysis rejects the hypothesis that these microcredit programs are a poverty trap. Moreover, the paper finds moderately positive effects of such programs
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dang, Hai-Anh H Updating Poverty Estimates at Frequent Intervals in the Absence of Consumption Data
    Keywords: Armut ; Konsum ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Arbeitsmarktstatistik ; Jordanien
    Abstract: Obtaining consistent estimates on poverty over time as well as monitoring poverty trends on a timely basis is a priority concern for policy makers. However, these objectives are not readily achieved in practice when household consumption data are neither frequently collected, nor constructed using consistent and transparent criteria. This paper develops a formal framework for survey-to-survey poverty imputation in an attempt to overcome these obstacles, and to elevate the discussion of these methods beyond the largely ad-hoc efforts in the existing literature. The framework introduced here imposes few restrictive assumptions, works with simple variance formulas, provides guidance on the selection of control variables for model building, and can be generally applied to imputation either from one survey to another survey with the same design, or to another survey with a different design. Empirical results analyzing the Household Expenditure and Income Survey and the Unemployment and Employment Survey in Jordan are quite encouraging, with imputation-based poverty estimates closely tracking the direct estimates of poverty
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (71 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wagstaff, Adam Who Benefits from Government Health Spending and Why?
    Abstract: This paper uses a common household survey instrument and a common set of imputation assumptions to estimate the pro-poorness of government health expenditure across 69 countries at all levels of income. On average, government health expenditure emerges as significantly pro-rich, but there is heterogeneity across countries: in the majority, government health expenditure is neither pro-rich nor pro-poor, while in a small minority it is pro-rich, and in an even smaller minority it is pro-poor. Government health expenditure on contracted private facilities emerges as significantly pro-rich for all types of care, and in almost all Asian countries government health expenditure overall is significantly pro-rich. The pro-poorness of government health expenditure at the country level is significantly and positively correlated with gross domestic product per capita and government health expenditure per capita, significantly and negatively correlated with the share of government facility revenues coming from user fees, and significantly and positively correlated with six measures of the quality of a country's governance; it is not, however, correlated with the size of the private sector nor with the degree to which the private sector delivers care disproportionately to the better-off. Because poorly-governed countries are underrepresented in the sample, government health expenditure is likely to be even more pro-rich in the world as a whole than it is in the countries in this study
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Moral-Benito, Enrique Testing Weak Exogeneity in Cointegrated Panels
    Abstract: For reason of empirical tractability, analysis of cointegrated economic time series is often developed in a partial setting, in which a subset of variables is explicitly modeled conditional on the rest. This approach yields valid inference only if the conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest. This paper proposes a new test of weak exogeneity in panel cointegration models. The test has a limiting Gumbel distribution that is obtained by first letting the time dimension of the panel go to infinity and then letting its cross-sectional dimension go to infinity. The paper evaluates the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation in finite samples via simulation experiments. Finally, as an empirical illustration, the paper reports tests of weak exogeneity of disposable income and wealth in an aggregate consumption equation
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Shilpi, Forhad Voting with Their Feet?
    DDC: 360
    Abstract: Using bilateral migration flow data from the 2010 population census of Nepal, this paper provides evidence on the importance of public infrastructure and services in determining migration flows. The empirical specification, based on a generalized nested logit model, corrects for the non-random selection of migrants. The results show that migrants prefer areas that are nearer to paved roads and have better access to electricity. Apart from electricity's impact on income and through income on migration, the econometric results indicate that migrants attach substantial amenity value to access to electricity. These findings have important implications for the placement of basic infrastructure projects and the way benefits from these projects are evaluated
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cororaton, Caesar B The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific
    Abstract: This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Groh, Matthew Macroinsurance for Microenterprises
    Abstract: Firms in many developing countries cite macroeconomic instability and political uncertainty as major constraints to their growth. Economic theory suggests uncertainty can cause firms to delay investments until uncertainty is resolved. A randomized experiment was conducted in post-revolution Egypt to measure the impact of insuring microenterprises against macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Demand for macroeconomic shock insurance was high; 36.7 percent of microentrepreneurs in the treatment group purchased insurance. However, purchasing insurance does not change the likelihood that a business takes a new loan, the size of the loan, or how the loan is invested. This lack of effect is attributed to microenterprises largely investing in inventories and raw materials rather than irreversible investments like equipment. These results suggest that, contrary to what some firms profess, macroeconomic and political risk is not inhibiting the investment behavior of microenterprises. However, insurance may still be of value to help firms cope with shocks when they do occur, but the paper is unable to examine this dimension, because the insurance product did not pay out over the course of the pilot
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kee, Hiau Looi Local Intermediate Inputs and the Shared Supplier Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment
    Abstract: Trade liberalizations have been shown to improve domestic firms' performance through the new varieties of imported intermediate inputs. This paper uses a unique, representative sample of Bangladeshi garment firms to highlight that local intermediate inputs may also enhance domestic firms' performance, through the shared supplier spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) firms. An exogenous EU trade policy shock is shown to cause some FDI firms in Bangladesh to expand, which led to better performance of the domestic firms that shared their suppliers. Overall, the shared supplier spillovers of FDI explain 1/4 of the product scope expansion and 1/3 of the productivity gains within domestic firms
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ozier, Owen Exploiting Externalities to Estimate the Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Deworming
    Keywords: Basisgesundheitsversorgung ; Ländliches Gesundheitswesen ; Kinderschutz ; Ernährung ; Bildungsverhalten ; Kenia
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether a large-scale deworming intervention aimed at primary school pupils in western Kenya had long-term effects on young children in the region. The paper exploits positive externalities from the program to estimate the impact on younger children who did not receive treatment directly. Ten years after the intervention, large cognitive effects are found - comparable to between 0.5 and 0.8 years of schooling - for children who were less than one year old when their communities received mass deworming treatment. Because mass deworming was administered through schools, effects are estimated among children who were likely to have older siblings in schools receiving the treatment directly; in this subpopulation, effects are nearly twice as large
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Foreign Bank Subsidiaries' Default Risk During the Global Crisis
    Keywords: Bankenkrise ; Portfolio-Management ; Bank ; Ausländische Tochtergesellschaft ; Black-Scholes-Modell ; Kreditrisiko
    Abstract: This paper examines the association between the default risk of foreign bank subsidiaries and their parents during the global financial crisis, with the purpose of understanding what factors can help insulate affiliates from their parents. The paper finds evidence of a significant positive correlation between parent banks' and foreign subsidiaries' default risk. This correlation is lower for subsidiaries that have higher capital, retail deposit funding, and profitability ratios and that are more independently managed from their parents. Host country regulations also influence the extent to which shocks to the parents affect the subsidiaries' default risk. In particular, the correlation between the default risk of the subsidiary and the parent is lower for subsidiaries operating in countries that impose higher capital, reserve, provisioning, and disclosure requirements and tougher restrictions on bank activities
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Xu, Lixin Colin Water Quality, Brawn, and Education
    Abstract: Although previous research has demonstrated the health benefits of water treatment programs, relatively little is known about the effect of water treatment on education. This paper examines the educational benefits to rural youth in China of a major drinking water treatment program started in the 1980s, perhaps the largest of such programs in the world. By employing a cross-sectional data set (constructed from a longitudinal data set covering two decades) with more than 4,700 individuals between 18 and 25 years old, the analysis finds that this health program has improved the individuals' education substantially, increasing the grades of education completed by 1.08 years. The qualitative results hold when the analysis controls for local educational policies and resources, village dummies, and distance of villages to schools, and by instrumenting the water treatment dummy with villages' topographic features, among others. Moreover, three findings render support to the brawn theory of gender division of labor: girls benefit much more from water treatment than boys in schooling attainment; youth with an older brother benefit more than youth with an older sister; and boys gain more body mass than girls do from having access to treated water. The program can account for the gender gap in educational attainment in rural China in the sample period. Young people that had access to treated plant water in early childhood (0-2 years of age) experienced significantly higher gains in education than those who were exposed to treated water after early childhood. The estimates suggest that this program is highly cost-effective
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andalón, Mabel Weather Shocks and Health at Birth in Colombia
    Abstract: Poor health at birth has negative long-run effects on individual well-being and is also detrimental for intergenerational mobility. This paper examines whether health outcomes at birth are affected by in utero increased exposure to rainfall and temperature shocks in Colombia, one of the countries in the world with the highest incidence of extreme weather events per year. The paper uses a fixed effects design to gauge the causal effect using variation in fetal exposure to these shocks by municipality and date of birth. The analysis finds negative effects of temperature shocks on birth health outcomes and no effect of rainfall shocks. The results indicate that heat waves lead to a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the probability of being born at full term and a decline of 0.4 percentage point in the probability of newborns classified as healthy. The timing of exposure to the shock matters and it matters differently for different outcomes. These findings are critical to prioritize responses to counteract the negative effects of weather, particularly hot shocks, which are projected to become more frequent and intense with changing climate
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fritz, Verena Strengthening Public Financial Management
    Abstract: This paper explores two relationships, first between country characteristics and the quality of public financial management ('drivers'), and second between the quality of public financial management systems and expected outcomes ('effects'). On the influence of country characteristics, the paper investigates economic factors (income level, growth, and resource dependency), population size, levels and sources of revenue, and three macro-political characteristics-political stability, regime type, and the presence of programmatic parties. These characteristics jointly explain about 40 percent of the variation in the quality of public financial management across countries. Furthermore, first-difference analysis suggests that countries with lower initial public financial management quality improve at a higher rate over time. This implies that structural factors set the scene for the likelihood of better or worse performance, but also that there is substantial variation among countries sharing certain characteristics and reform opportunities exist even in unfavorable environments. Methodologically, a key limitation is that the direction of causality cannot be fully addressed with the types of data available. On the effects of the performance of public financial management, the paper finds evidence that stronger performance results in better budget credibility, but not in lower deficits. Furthermore, there is no clear evidence regarding operational efficiency. The observed disconnect could be caused by missing complementary state capacities, measurement problems, or other issues, which need to be explored further. Overall, the findings are consistent with the assumption that stakeholder incentives and constellations matter and that reform approaches combining good technical calibration and political economy considerations are likely to influence success in strengthening public financial management
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Blankespoor, Brian Protected Areas and Deforestation
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effectiveness of protected areas in slowing tropical forest clearing in 64 countries in Asia/Pacific, Africa, and Latin America for the period 2001-2012. The investigation compares deforestation rates inside and within 10 kilometers outside the boundary of protected areas. Annual time series of these deforestation rates were constructed from recently published high-resolution data on forest clearing. For 4,028 parks, panel estimation based on a variety of park characteristics was conducted to test if deforestation is lower in protected areas because of their protected status, or if other factors explain the difference. For a sample of 726 parks established since 2002, a test also was conducted to investigate the effect of park establishment on protection. The findings suggest park size, national park status, and management by indigenous people all have significant association with effective protection across regions. For the Asia/Pacific region, the test offers compelling evidence that park establishment has a near-immediate and powerful effect
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lopez-Claros, Augusto Does Culture Matter for Development?
    Abstract: Economists have either avoided or struggled with the concept of culture and its role in economic development. Although a few theoretical works-and even fewer empirical studies-have appeared in the past decades, this paper tries to build on a multidisciplinary approach to review the evidence on whether and how culture matters for development. First, the paper reviews available definitions of culture and illustrates ways in which culture can change and create favorable conditions for economic development. Second, the paper discusses the challenges of separating the effect of culture from other drivers of human behavior such as incentives, the availability of information, or climate. Finally, the paper argues that globalization has led to the emergence of a set of progressive values that are common cultural traits of all developed economies
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kattan, Raja Bentaouet Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Mexico
    Abstract: This study examines the causes and effects of low enrollment and high dropout rates at the upper secondary level in Mexico, where upper secondary completion rates are well below those of other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and the regional average. Through a disaggregated analysis of coverage, absorption, and dropout data in secondary education at the state level, the study categorizes states according to the stage in the educational cycle at which dropout primarily occurs. The study further examines the academic, social, and economic consequences of dropout through an analysis of employment and youth survey data. The analysis of factors associated with dropout uses self-reported factors as well as estimated probit models that use household data from national surveys and the national standardized test. The central conclusion reached is that in addition to the patterns of dropout found, multiple elements intersect with the patterns to form a complex panorama. Key findings include: i) personal, family, and household economic factors and the prevalence of social risks have a closer association with dropout earlier in the education cycle; ii) the association between dropout and the quality of education has greater intensity in states where dropout occurs primarily during upper secondary education and in those with the lowest upper secondary dropout rates; and iii) as the returns to education grow, dropout is lower; in the case of returns to higher education, the association with dropout is stronger for states that have the highest dropout during upper secondary education. This complexity merits differentiated responses, which are explored through a brief look at relevant international approaches
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Oseni, Gbemisola Can Agricultural Households Farm Their Way Out of Poverty?
    Keywords: 2010 - 2011 ; Landwirtschaftlicher Familienbetrieb ; Produktivität ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Panel ; Armut ; Nigeria
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of agricultural productivity and its link to poverty using nationally representative data from the Nigeria General Household Survey Panel, 2010/11. The findings indicate an elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to agricultural productivity of between 0.25 to 0.3 percent, implying that a 10 percent increase in agricultural productivity will decrease the likelihood of being poor by between 2.5 and 3 percent. To increase agricultural productivity, land, labor, fertilizer, agricultural advice, and diversification within agriculture are the most important factors. As commonly found in the literature, the results indicate the inverse-land size productivity relationship. More specifically, a 10 percent increase in harvested land size will decrease productivity by 6.6 percent, all else being equal. In a simulation exercise where land quality is assumed to be constant across small and large holdings, the results show that if farms in the top land quintile had half the median yield per hectare of farms in the lowest quintile, production of the top quintile would be 10 times higher. The higher overall values of harvests from larger land sizes are more likely because of cultivation of larger expanses of land, rather than from efficient production. It should be noted that having larger land sizes in itself is not positively correlated with a lower likelihood of being poor. This is not to say that having larger land sizes is not important for farming, but rather it indicates that increasing efficiency is the more important need that could lead to poverty reduction for agricultural households
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  • 64
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (19 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Toman, Michael The Need for Multiple Types of Information to Inform Climate Change Assessment
    Abstract: Information on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how individuals perceive and evaluate climate change risks
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gaddis, Isis The Gendered Labor Market Impacts of Trade Liberalization
    Abstract: This paper investigates gender differences in the impact of Brazil' trade liberalization on labor market outcomes. To identify the causal effect of trade reforms, the paper uses difference-in-difference estimation exploiting variation across microregions in pre-liberalization industry composition. The analysis finds that trade liberalization reduced male and female labor force participation and employment rates, but the effects on men were significantly larger. Thereby, tariff reductions contributed to gender convergence in labor force participation and employment rates. Gender differences are concentrated among the low-skilled population and in the tradable sector, where male and female workers are most likely to be imperfect substitutes
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Jafari, Yaghoob Estimates of Ad Valorem Equivalents of Barriers Against Foreign Suppliers of Services in Eleven Services Sectors and 103 Countries
    Abstract: A new database on the barriers faced by foreign suppliers of services has been produced by the World Bank. Data for 103 countries are available on 11 of the most important services sectors in international trade. Based on these data and building on the methodology and publications supported by the Australian Productivity Commission, this paper produces estimates of the ad valorem equivalents of the barriers for all these sectors and countries. Compared with estimates available in the literature that are based on assessments of country- and sector-specific barriers to services providers, the estimates expand the set of sectors and more than triple the set of countries for which estimates of the ad valorem equivalents of the services barriers are available
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cojocaru, Alexandru Should Income Inequality be Reduced and Who Should Benefit?
    Abstract: This paper examines support for reducing inequality and for income redistribution to specific groups in Europe and Central Asia. The paper uses the Life in Transition Survey to analyze cross-country differences in redistributive preferences and the determinants of individual-level differences in such preferences. The analysis tests for various possible motivations, such as self-interest, beliefs about the fairness of the income-generating process, past social mobility experience, or expectations of future social mobility. Fewer people wanted to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in 2010 than in 2006 in transition countries. Support for redistribution toward specific groups is highest for the disabled and the elderly, but there is high heterogeneity across countries in support for various redistributive policies, as well as in the alignment between average beliefs and actual policies. The empirical analysis confirms the importance of beliefs about fairness in influencing redistributive preferences, together with self-interest and past and expected social mobility in European Union member states (Western European and new member states), but only to a limited extent in the non-European Union member state group of transition countries. Regarding redistribution to specific groups, self-interest appears to be an important motivation for support for the elderly and families with children, whereas values and beliefs are important drivers of support for the working poor and the unemployed. Although framing matters, the results are broadly robust to alternative measures of support for reducing inequality
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Success in Difficult Environments
    Abstract: The World Bank Group has identified support to fragile and conflict-affected states as a strategic priority. This paper provides a systematic portfolio review of the International Development Association-funded projects in fragile and conflict-affected states during 2001 to 2013 and a detailed empirical analysis of the correlations between project and country-level characteristics with project outcome ratings. The portfolio review identifies a decline in the proportional amount of resources directed to fragile and conflict-affected states and a decline in the number of internationally recruited staff based in these countries. The empirical analysis finds no statistical difference in whether projects obtain at least a moderately satisfactory outcome rating between countries that are fragile and conflict-affected states and those that are not. Examination of the distribution of project outcome ratings indicates that projects in fragile and conflict-affected states obtain slightly lower ratings conditional on being unsatisfactory or satisfactory. Detailed cross-section regression analysis finds that indicators of project complexity, such as supervision costs, staff time, preparation time, and financing, are correlated with lower outcome ratings. Project leader characteristics are correlated with project outcome ratings, but to a lesser degree in fragile and conflict-affected states, potentially indicating that it is more difficult for project leaders to influence project outcomes in these environments. Last, a new approach to control for unobservable project characteristics, such as inherent complexity or ambition, shows preliminary evidence that changes in the project leader and increases in the supervision budget are correlated with improvements in project performance
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Singh, Raju Jan Oil and Civil Conflict
    Abstract: This paper explores the conditions under which public spending could minimize violent conflict related to oil wealth. Previous work suggests that oil can lead to violent conflict because it increases the value of the state as a prize or because it undermines the state' bureaucratic penetration. Yet, little has been said on how oil wealth could be used to prevent the onset of violent conflict through public spending by buying off citizens and elites, increasing state legitimacy by providing basic services, or strengthening the military and security apparatus. The empirical analysis (148 countries over 1960-2009) shows that higher levels of military spending are associated with lower risk of small- and large-scale conflict onset in countries rich in oil and gas. By contrast, in economies with little natural resources, increases in military spending are associated with a higher risk of conflict. Welfare expenditure is associated with lower risk of small-scale conflict, irrespective of the level of oil revenue. However, general government spending does not appear to have any robust mitigating effects
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Barbier, Edward B Poverty and the Spatial Distribution of Rural Population
    Abstract: According to global spatial data sets in 2000 more than one-third of the rural population in developing countries was located on less favored agricultural land and areas. Less favored agricultural lands are susceptible to low productivity and degradation, because their agricultural potential is constrained biophysically by terrain, poor soil quality, or limited rainfall. Less favored agricultural areas include less favored agricultural lands plus favorable agricultural land that is remote, that is, land in rural areas with high agricultural potential but with limited access. The paper presents tests of whether these spatial distributions of rural population influence poverty directly or indirectly via income growth in 83 developing countries from 2000 to 2012. The analysis finds no evidence of a direct impact on poverty, but there is a significant indirect impact via the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth. Reducing poverty requires targeting rural populations in less favored lands and remote areas, in addition to encouraging out-migration in some areas
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (84 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kabanda, Patrick The Creative Wealth of Nations
    Abstract: Cultural activities are increasingly noted as drivers of meaningful development. But they have yet to gain a prominent place in the architecture of development strategy. The performing arts, discussed here, exhibit direct effects on social progress and economic growth through trade in music, movies, and temporary work permits for artists, for example. Indirect contributions may also include environmental stewardship, tourism, nation branding, social inclusion, cultural democracy, and shifting cultural behaviors. These direct and indirect contributions are not well documented. As such, how is the creative or cultural sector a crucial part of the wealth of nations, and how could the World Bank Group better leverage the performing arts in its development strategy? This discussion provides a broad snapshot, from arts education, to social inclusion, to international trade in services. Key constraints include: the paucity of data and the difficulty of measuring cultural activities, the challenge of intellectual property, and the unclear benefits of cultural tourism. Part I sets the stage. Part II then provides policy options to foster the performing arts as a promising engine for development. Suggestions include: 1. expanding direct involvement in artistic projects, 2. increasing the use of performing arts to address social issues, 3. collecting data, 4. promoting intellectual property training programs, 5. supporting digital platforms in the developing world that advance indigenous music, and 6. funding studies on such areas as cultural tourism. Progress still needs to be made in the discussion of the diverse ways that the performing arts can contribute to meaningful development
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lawson, Nicholas What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Poorer
    Abstract: A growing literature documents links between early-life health and human capital, and between human capital and adult wages. Although most of this literature has focused on developed countries, economists have hypothesized that effects of early-life health on adult economic outcomes could be even greater in developing countries. This paper asks whether the early-life disease environment in India influences adult economic wages. The paper uses two measures of early-life disease environment to investigate this question: infant mortality rates and open defecation. A district-level differences-in-differences strategy is used to show that men born in district-years with lower infant mortality and better sanitation earned plausibly higher wages in their 20s and 30s. The effect estimates are applied to calculate the fiscal and welfare consequences of the disease environment, which are considerable. In particular, eliminating open defecation would increase tax revenue by enough to offset completely a cost to the government of over \
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Calì, Massimiliano Trade and Civil Conflict
    Keywords: 1960 - 2010 ; Bürgerkrieg ; Politische Instabilität ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Rohstoffpreis ; Entwicklungsländer
    Abstract: This paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported commodities raise the country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The effect on conflict risk is mainly driven by the price of point-source commodities, in line with the rapacity effect theory of conflict. However, the paper does not find support for the opportunity cost theory via exported commodities. The analysis also finds that intense trading with contiguous countries is associated with lower duration of intra-state conflict, consistent with the idea that such trade reduces the incentive of contiguous countries to fuel conflict in their neighbor. Trading with neighbors is also associated with a lower risk of conflict, when such trade occurs under trade agreements. By contrast, neither imported commodity prices nor the economic cycle in export markets appears to exert any influence on the probability or duration of conflict. The paper identifies several conditions under which changes in the value of exported commodities cease to matter for conflict probability
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iqbal, Farrukh Education Attainment in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: This paper reviews the experience of the Middle East and North Africa region in education attainment over the past four decades (1970-2010). It documents the following main findings: (a) all countries in the region experienced significant improvements in educational attainment over this period; (b) most countries in the region did better in this regard than comparators that had roughly the same education stocks in 1970; (c) collectively, the region achieved a greater percentage increase in education than other regions; (d) the region's better performance was in part because of higher rates of public spending on education, better food sufficiency status, and a lower initial stock of education in 1970 in comparison with most other developing country regions; and (e) the region had among the lowest payoffs to public spending in terms of increments in education stock; the impressive advance in education was achieved at high cost
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip Party Age and Party Color
    Abstract: This paper advances research on inequality with unique, new data on income distribution in 61 countries, including 20 Latin American countries, to explore the effects of political parties on redistribution. First, consistent with a central-but still contested-assumption of the political economy literature, left-wing governments redistribute more. In addition, consistent with recent research on the importance of party organization and the organizational differences between younger and older parties, older left-wing parties are more likely to internalize the long-run costs of redistribution and to be more credible in their commitment to redistribution, leading them to redistribute less. With entirely different data, the paper also provides evidence on mechanisms: left-wing governments not only redistribute more, they tax more; older left-wing parties, though, tax less than younger ones
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Myerson, Roger B Local Foundations for Better Governance
    Abstract: In Localizing Development, Mansuri and Rao survey theory and evidence for development strategies based on local community empowerment. This note extends their theoretical argument by focusing on local government as a vital source of new leadership. Local leaders who provide better public service can prove their qualifications for higher office, but new competition from popular local leaders may be against the interests of incumbent national leaders. Thus, decentralization reforms that could benefit economic development may face powerful resistance. International assistance should promote a balanced development of local and national governments, along with a free press to monitor government at all levels. To better inform public discussions of decentralization reforms, the World Bank should actively support research on comparative subnational politics
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Guerra, Nancy Developing Social-Emotional Skills for the Labor Market
    Abstract: Although there is a general agreement in the literature of the importance of social-emotional skills for labor market success, there is little consensus on the specific skills that should be acquired or how and when to teach them. The psychology, economics, policy research, and program implementation literatures all touch on these issues, but they are not sufficiently integrated to provide policy direction. The objective of this paper is to provide a coherent framework and related policies and programs that bridge the psychology, economics, and education literature, specifically that related to skills employers value, non-cognitive skills that predict positive labor market outcomes, and skills targeted by psycho-educational prevention and intervention programs. The paper uses as its base a list of social-emotional skills that employers value, classifies these into eight subgroups (summarized by PRACTICE), then uses the psychology literature-drawing from the concepts of psycho-social and neuro-biological readiness and age-appropriate contexts-to map the age and context in which each skill subset is developed. The paper uses examples of successful interventions to illustrate the pedagogical process. The paper concludes that the social-emotional skills employers value can be effectively taught when aligned with the optimal stage for each skill development, middle childhood is the optimal stage for development of PRACTICE skills, and a broad international evidence base on effective program interventions at the right stage can guide policy makers to incorporate social-emotional learning into their school curriculum
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bird, Julia The Brasília Experiment
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the rapid expansion of the Brazilian road network, which occurred from the 1960s to the 2000s, on the growth and spatial allocation of population and economic activity across the country's municipalities. It addresses the problem of endogeneity in infrastructure location by using an original empirical strategy, based on the “historical natural experiment” constituted by the creation of the new federal capital city Brasília in 1960. The results reveal a dual pattern, with improved transport connections increasing concentration of economic activity and population around the main centers in the South of the country, while spurring the emergence of secondary economic centers in the less developed North, in line with predictions in terms of agglomeration economies. Over the period, roads are shown to account for half of pcGDP growth and to spur a significant decrease in spatial inequality
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sabarwal, Shwetlena The Permanent Input Hypothesis
    Abstract: A textbook provision program in Sierra Leone demonstrates how volatility in the flow of government-provided learning inputs to schools can induce storage of these inputs by school administrators to smooth future consumption. This process in turn leads to low current utilization of inputs for student learning. A randomized trial of a public program providing textbooks to primary schools had modest positive impacts on teacher behavior but no impacts on student performance. In many treatment schools, student access to textbooks did not actually increase because a large majority of the books were stored rather than distributed to students. At the same time, the propensity to save books was positively correlated with uncertainty on the part of head teachers regarding government transfers of books. The evidence suggests that schools that have high uncertainty with respect to future transfers are more likely to store a high proportion of current transfers. These results show that reducing uncertainty in school input flows could result in higher current input use for student learning. For effective program design, public policy programs must take forward-looking behavior among intermediate actors into account
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iqbal, Farrukh The Reduction of Child Mortality in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: Although child mortality rates have declined all across the developing world over the past 40 years, they have declined the most in the Middle East and North Africa region. This paper documents this remarkable experience and shows that it is broad based in the sense that all countries in the Middle East and North Africa experienced significant declines in child mortality over this period and each country did better than most of its comparators. In looking for the sources of the region's performance edge, the paper confirms the importance of such determinants of child mortality as income growth, education stock, public spending on health, urbanization, and food sufficiency. In addition, the paper establishes that the initial level of mortality has a substantial influence on the pace of subsequent child mortality decline. Of these factors, food sufficiency status is found to contribute to the region's performance edge over all developing regions, while the other factors are found to matter to varying degrees in selected pairwise regional comparisons
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ersado, Lire Inequality of Opportunity among Egyptian Children
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the level and trends in inequality of opportunity among Egyptian children during the 2000s. The analysis uses severall tools, including comparison of the distributions of early risks and outcomes across circumstance groups; estimation of the human opportunity index; measurement of the relative contributions of circumstances to inequality of opportunity; and decomposition of changes in inequality of opportunity and factors driving them over time. Egypt has made significant progress in the availability of and access to basic services for children and mothers, in some cases with an overall pro-poor effect. In particular, appreciable improvements have been made in healthcare utilization before and during pregnancy and immunizations. As a result, there has been a decline in inequality of opportunity over the past decade, largely attributable to increased coverage by basic services rather than through redistributive effects. However, there are areas of persistent and emerging concerns, including postnatal care utilization, nutrition, and schooling. Nutrition indicators have deteriorated during the 2000s, affecting a quarter of children regardless of their circumstances. Wide disparities in school enrollment persist, notably at the higher levels. Large regional disparities in access to basic infrastructure exist, with Upper Egypt and the Frontier Governorates lagging the rest of the country. Family background, especially parents' education and wealth, and geographic factors are key factors affecting child development outcomes in Egypt. While interventions targeted at the less advantaged circumstance groups may offer significant potential for enhancing overall equity in postnatal care utilization and schooling, a more inclusive approach would be needed to improve child nutrition outcomes
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Benchmarking the Financial Performance, Growth, and Outreach of Greenfield Microfinance Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: In recent years there has been a rapid increase in the presence and growth of greenfield microfinance institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses regressions to benchmark those African greenfields relative to other microfinance providers and finds that greenfields grew faster in terms of deposits and lending, improved their profitability to levels comparable to the top microfinance institutions, and substantially increased their lending to women. The effects were especially strong for greenfields that followed a consultant-led model to establish a deep retail banking presence spanning multiple countries, including the creation of extensive branch networks. Although their loan sizes are somewhat larger than those of most African microfinance institutions, indicating less outreach to the poorest market segments, greenfields have achieved rapid gains in financial inclusion on a broad scale
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Emran, Shahe Agricultural Productivity, Hired Labor, Wages and Poverty
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the effects of agricultural productivity on wage rates, labor supply to market oriented activities, and labor allocation between own farming and wage labor in agriculture. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that underscores the role of reallocation of family labor engaged in the production of non-marketed services at home ('home production'). The model predicts positive effects of a favorable agricultural productivity shock on wages and income, but the effect on hired labor is ambiguous; it depends on the strength of reallocation of labor from home to market production by labor surplus and deficit households. Taking rainfall variations as a measure of shock to agricultural productivity, and using subdistrict level panel data from Bangladesh, this paper finds significant positive effects of a favorable rainfall shock on agricultural wages, labor supply to market work, and per capita household expenditure. The share of hired labor in contrast declines substantially in response to a favorable productivity shock, which is consistent with a case where labor-deficit households respond more than the labor-surplus ones in reallocating labor from home production
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (12 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Amin, Mohammad Use of Imported Inputs and the Cost of Importing
    Abstract: For a representative sample of manufacturing firms in 26 countries, this paper shows that changes in the cost of importing over time are significantly and negatively correlated with changes in the percentage of firms' material inputs that are of foreign origin. Furthermore, the paper shows that there may be a nonlinear relationship between import costs and imports. These findings are important, as recent studies point toward a significant positive effect of imported inputs on productivity and growth. It is hoped that the present paper inspires more work on the determinants of the use of imported inputs, especially in developing countries
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ivanic, Maros Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism
    Abstract: The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India?
    Abstract: The differences in financial development across Indian states, while seeming substantial, have a minor effect on firm lifecycle and growth. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, and for firms born before and after the major reforms. There is no evidence that firms in financially dependent industries have different lifecycle profiles or grow faster in financially developed states than underdeveloped states. Overall, firms in the formal manufacturing sector grow as they age whereas in the informal sector, firms have a declining lifecycle, but in both cases little evidence is found that financial institutions matter for firm lifecycle. The findings of this paper suggest that size and depth differences in financial development across Indian states are likely dwarfed by overall inefficiencies that characterize state-dominated financial systems, with important implications for the reforms of the Indian financial system going forward
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cai, Yongyang The Effect of Climate and Technological Uncertainty in Crop Yields on the Optimal Path of Global Land Use
    Abstract: The pattern of global land use has important implications for the world's food and timber supplies, bioenergy, biodiversity and other eco-system services. However, the productivity of this resource is critically dependent on the world's climate, as well as investments in, and dissemination of improved technology. This creates massive uncertainty about future land use requirements which compound the challenge faced by individual investors and governments seeking to make long term, sometimes irreversible investments in land conversion and land use. This study assesses how uncertainties associated with underlying biophysical processes and technological change in agriculture affect the optimal profile of land use over the next century, taking into account the potential irreversibility in these decisions. A novel dynamic stochastic model of global land use is developed, in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including bio-fuels), timber production, and biodiversity. While the uncertainty in food crop yields has anticipated impact, the resulting expansion of crop lands and decline in forest lands is relatively small
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Viguié, V Urban Infrastructure Investment and Rent-Capture Potentials
    Abstract: In a context of rapid urbanization and energy transition, massive investments will be required to develop efficient public transport networks. Capturing the increase in land value caused by transport infrastructure (for example, through a betterment tax) appears a promising way to finance public transport. However, it is no trivial task, as it is difficult to anticipate the rent creation. This paper uses a simple city model based on urban economic theory to compute the rent created by improvements in public transport infrastructure in Paris, France. To apply in places where models or data are not available, a reduced form of the model is shown to provide acceptable approximations of the rent creation. Simulations confirm that land value capture can finance a significant part of transport investments. The simulations also show that value capture potentials are influenced by what happens in the entire agglomeration. Simultaneous infrastructure investments in different parts of the city play a significant role, as they change overall accessibility patterns. Evolutions taking place in other cities also have a comparable influence. Non-local effects can change the total potential for land value capture and multiply this potential by as much as a factor of two
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (87 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Sheahan, Megan Understanding the Agricultural Input Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: Conventional wisdom holds that Sub-Saharan African farmers use few modern inputs despite the fact that most growth-inducing and poverty-reducing agricultural growth in the region is expected to come largely from expanded use of inputs that embody improved technologies, particularly improved seed, fertilizers and other agro-chemicals, machinery, and irrigation. Yet following several years of high food prices, concerted policy efforts to intensify fertilizer and hybrid seed use, and increased public and private investment in agriculture, how low is modern input use in Africa really? This paper revisits Africa's agricultural input landscape, exploiting the unique, recently collected, nationally representative, agriculturally intensive, and cross-country comparable Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture covering six countries in the region (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda). The study uses data from more than 22,000 households and 62,000 plots to investigate a range of commonly held conceptions about modern input use in Africa, distilling the most striking and important findings into 10 key takeaway descriptive results
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Davis, Benjamin Income Diversification Patterns in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: Is Africa' rural economy transforming as its economies grow? This paper uses comparable income aggregates from 41 national household surveys from 22 countries to explore the extent of income diversification among rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa, and to look at how income diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa compares with other regions, taking into account differences in levels of development. The paper also seeks to understand how geography drives income diversification, focusing on the role of agricultural potential and distance to urban areas. The countries in the African sample have higher shares of on-farm income (63 versus 33 percent) and lower shares on nonagricultural wage income (8 and 21 percent) compared with countries of other regions. Specialization in on-farm activities continues to be the norm in rural Africa (52 percent of households, 21 percent in other regions). In terms of welfare, specialization in nonagricultural income-generating activities stochastically dominates farm-based strategies in all of the countries in our African sample. Crop income is still important for welfare, however, and even at higher levels of household income, crop activities continue to play an important complementary role. Regardless of distance and integration in the urban context, when agro-climatic conditions are favorable, farming remains the occupation of choice for most households in the African countries for which the study has geographically explicit information. When urban integration is low and agricultural conditions more difficult, the picture is mixed, with households more likely to engage more fully in nonfarm activities in Niger and Malawi, but less likely to do so in Uganda and Tanzania
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Giné, Xavier The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout
    Abstract: This paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity, wages, or consumption, but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults. Post-program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. Loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program, suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified
    Note: Erratum enthalten in: The review of financial studies ; Volume 30, number 11 (November 2017), Seite 4081
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Allen, Franklin The African Financial Development and Financial Inclusion Gaps
    Abstract: This paper investigates the African financial development and financial inclusion gaps relative to other peer developing countries. The paper uses a set of variables related to financial development and inclusion. It first estimates the gaps between African countries and other developing countries with similar degrees of economic development. Then, it explores the determinants of financial development and inclusion. The analysis finds that population density is considerably more important for financial development and inclusion in Africa than elsewhere. Finally, the paper shows evidence that a recent innovation in financial services, mobile banking, has helped to overcome infrastructural problems and improve financial access
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Latorre, María C CGE Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Tariff Reform on Female and Male Wages
    Abstract: This study analyzes the impact on male and female wages of tariff reform and the reduction of regulatory barriers faced by domestic and foreign firms operating in business services. The study applies the model to Tanzania and develops a data set that distinguishes labor and wages by gender for 52 sectors and four skill categories. The model is the first to incorporate modern trade theory to assess the gender implications of trade reform. Given that the Dixit-Stiglitz framework results in productivity gains from additional varieties of services, the analysis finds that real wages increase across all worker categories. However, the increase in wages is higher for males than for females, because business services use males more intensively than females. The most skilled (female and male) workers, who are also the most intensively used in the business services sectors, benefit more from the real increases in wages. The model illustrates that as the development process continues and developing countries become more business service oriented, these sectors demand more educated workers and their wages will increase relative to those of unskilled workers. The policy conclusion from this model is that it is crucial to invest in the education of females so their human capital increases and their skills are more marketable in business services and other more technologically modern occupations. Otherwise, the wage gap between males and females would likely widen further
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Quatraro, Francesco Drivers of Entrepreneurship and Post-Entry Performance of Newborn Firms in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Unternehmensgründung ; Entrepreneurship ; Unternehmenserfolg ; Schumpeterismus ; Entwicklungsländer
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide an updated survey of the "state of the art" in entrepreneurial studies with a particular focus on developing countries (DCs). In particular, the concept of "entrepreneurship" is critically discussed, followed by a discussion of the institutional, macroeconomic, and microeconomic conditions that affect the entry of new firms and the post-entry performance of newborn firms. The reviewed literature bears some policy implications for the support of the creation new firms, such as the targeting of policy measures to prospective entrepreneurs who possess high education levels, long previous job experience, and innovative skills. Specifically, for DCs, tailored subsidies and support should be coupled with framework and infrastructural policies that are able to improve the business environment such that new ventures can start and grow
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Zezza, Alberto Milking the Data
    Abstract: Milk is an important source of cash and nutrients for many households in developing countries. Yet, the understanding of the role of dairy production in livelihoods and nutritional outcomes is hindered by the lack of decent quality household survey data. Data on milk off-take for human consumption are difficult to collect in household surveys for several reasons that make accurate recall challenging for the respondent (continuous production and seasonality, among others). As a result, the quantification and valuation of milk off-take is particularly difficult in household surveys, introducing possibly severe biases in the computation of full household incomes and farm sales, as well as in the estimation of the contribution of livestock (specifically dairy) production in agricultural value added and the livelihoods of rural households. This paper presents results from a validation exercise implemented in Niger, where alternative survey instruments based on recall methods were administered to randomly selected households and compared with a 12-month system of physical monitoring and recording of milk production. The results of the exercise show that reasonably accurate estimates via recall methods are possible and provide a clear ranking of questionnaire design options that can inform future survey operations
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  • 96
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ralston, Laura Job Creation in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the operations that the World Bank has supported to create jobs and promote employment in fragile and conflict-affected situations. A novel approach to identifying projects is presented that enables searching for projects based on stated development objectives, regardless of the sector of the project. Of a sample of 2,166 projects funded by the International Development Association, this resulted in the identification of 98 projects that have specific job creation and employment generation development objectives. Among these projects, 51 percent of countries appearing on the list between 2004 and 2012 have implemented projects. Detailed textual analysis is carried out on the project descriptions and indicators to evaluate how well projects are aligned to the context. The results suggest there is a lack of measurement on outcomes that are particularly relevant for fragile and conflict-affected situations, such as the development of social cohesion, reintegration of those involved or affected by violence, impacts jobs have on the willingness to engage in violence or conflict, perceptions of government accountability, and equitable access to these economic opportunities. Quantitative analysis of the portfolio indicates that there are also systematic differences in the size and resources associated with job creation projects in countries with fragile and conflict-affected situations relative to similar projects in other International Development Association-borrowing countries. Given the mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between jobs and conflict, this report calls for more methodological measurement of the impacts of these programs on stabilization outcomes in the future
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Desbordes, Rodolphe Credit Conditions and Foreign Direct Investment During the Global Financial Crisis
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect that tight credit conditions had on outward foreign direct investment flows during the 2008-2010 global financial crisis. A difference-in-differences approach is used to isolate a "credit channel" impact of the global financial crisis on foreign direct investment. The global financial crisis had a stronger negative impact on the relative volume of outward foreign direct investment in financially vulnerable sectors in more financially developed countries, especially if these countries also experienced a banking crisis. These results suggest that lack of access to external finance can partly explain the drop in foreign direct investment during the global financial crisis
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Mel, Suresh Radio Frequency (Un)Identification
    Keywords: Kleinstunternehmen ; Befragung ; Gewinn ; Absatz ; RFID
    Abstract: Accurate measurement of stock levels, turnover, and profitability in microenterprises in developing countries is difficult because the majority of these firms do not keep detailed records. This paper tests the use of radio frequency identification tags as a means of objectively measuring stock levels and stock flow in small retail firms in Sri Lanka. In principle, the tags offer the potential to track stock movements accurately. The paper compares the stock counts obtained from RFID reads to physical stock counts and to survey responses. There are three main findings. First, current RFID-technology is more difficult to use, and more time-consuming to employ, than had been envisaged. Second, the technology works reasonably well for paper products, but very poorly for most products sold by microenterprises: on average only about one-quarter of the products tagged could be read and there was considerable day-to-day variation in read-efficiency. Third, a comparison of survey responses and physical stock-takes shows much higher accuracy for survey measures. As a result, the study concludes that this technology is currently unsuitable for improving stock measurement in microenterprises, except perhaps for a few products
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Desbordes, Rodolphe The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment
    Abstract: This paper examines how financial development influences foreign direct investment. The direct and indirect sector-specific effects that source countries' financial development and destination countries' financial development can have on foreign direct investment are first identified in a conceptual framework. The presence and relative strength of these various channels of influence at the different margins of foreign direct investment are then empirically investigated using unique and underexploited sector-specific bilateral panel data on greenfield foreign direct investment over the period 2003-2006. Causality is established by applying a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the variation in financial vulnerability across manufacturing sectors. The overall effects of higher source countries' financial development and destination countries' financial development on the relative volume of bilateral foreign direct investment in financially vulnerable sectors are large, positive, and complementary. These effects appear to operate mainly at the intensive margin rather than at the extensive margin of foreign direct investment. There is also evidence of direct and indirect effects of financial development. The key findings are robust to the use of data on the number of bilateral Mergers\&Acquisitions transactions. Overall, the empirical results unambiguously indicate that a sophisticated and well-functioning financial system in source and destination countries greatly facilitates the international expansion of firms through foreign direct investment, especially in financially vulnerable sectors
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Nagler, Paula Non-Farm Enterprises in Rural Africa
    Abstract: Although non-farm enterprises are ubiquitous in rural Sub-Saharan Africa, little is yet known about them. The motivation for households to operate enterprises, how productive they are, and why they exit the market are neglected questions. Drawing on the Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and using discrete choice, selection model and panel data estimators, this paper provide answers using data from Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. The necessity to cope following shocks, seasonality in agriculture, and household size can push rural households into operating a non-farm enterprise. Households are also pulled into entrepreneurship to exploit opportunities. Access to credit and markets, household wealth, and the education and age of the household head are positively associated with the likelihood of operating an enterprise. The characteristics are also associated with the type of business activity a household operates. Rural and female-headed enterprises and enterprises with young enterprise owners are less productive than urban and male-owned enterprises and enterprises with older owners. Shocks have a negative association with enterprise operation and productivity and a large share of rural enterprises does not operate continuously over a year. Enterprises cease operations because of low profits, a lack of finance, or the effects of idiosyncratic shocks. Overall the findings are indicative that rural enterprises are "small businesses in a big continent" where large distances, rural isolation, low population density, and farming risks limit productivity and growth
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