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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (141)
  • GBV
  • Paris, France : OECD  (141)
  • Economics  (141)
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (141)
  • GBV
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Firming up the capital base of the Austrian business sector : consolidating Austria's business sector strengths and its social role in the face of new challenges (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1595
    Keywords: Economics ; Austria ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While small- and medium sized firms in Austria are generally more productive, export more, and engage more in higher technology activities than in comparable countries, they need to adapt better to the knowledge economy to maintain their relative performance levels. The capital structure of Austrian SMEs are biased towards debt-financing and stronger equity, growth and venture capital markets would provide them with further resources for their long-term knowledge based investments. Skills shortages, in particular in advanced digital technologies, should be overcome. As around one third of all SMEs are up for ownership transmissions, ensuring successful business transfers will be crucial for maintaining the broad-based entrepreneurial dynamism. Meeting these challenges would also help to lift constraints on upscaling that many SMEs face and would provide the fruitful soil for future innovative activities. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (http://www.oecd.org/economy/austria-economic-snapshot/)
    DOI: 10.1787/d132d949-en
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Addressing labour market challenges in Belgium (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1602
    Keywords: Employment ; Economics ; Belgium ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Job creation has lowered unemployment, but the Belgian labour market still faces many challenges. Employment rates remain low, reflecting barriers to finding a job such as low levels of skills and weak work incentives. In addition, the changing nature of work will require faster adaptation of workers. In order to address these challenges, this chapter presents a detailed analysis of policy priorities, drawing notably on insights from the OECD Jobs Strategy. One priority should be that each worker has access to lifelong training, with additional allowances targeted to disadvantaged workers. To improve transitions into work, the use of tools for the profiling of individualised risks should be extended. A better combination of income support and incentives could be achieved through reforming both unemployment and in-work benefits. Reforming some aspects of employment protection legislation, such as those related to collective dismissals, and the wage formation system, would boost flexibility. This Working Paper relates to the 2020 OECD Economic Survey of Belgium http://www.oecd.org/economy/belgium-economic-snapshot/.
    DOI: 10.1787/8a542d68-en
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Boosting access to credit and ensuring financial inclusion for all in Costa Rica (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1623
    Keywords: Economics ; Costa Rica ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Having access to credit is essential for households to address the volatility of their personal finances over time and for firms to fund their investments. Accessing financial services at affordable cost on the other hand, is crucial to ensure financial security of all economic units. Despite recent improvements, there are still large financial inclusion disparities in Costa Rica, notably across regions, by gender, and size of firms. This paper discusses policy reforms that would reduce these disparities. Some of the key policy priorities are to improve transparency by strengthening the credit registry and allocating the development banking credit more effectively. Enhancing financial literacy could help avoid excessive consumer indebtedness. Technological innovation would also help Costa Rica: granting FinTech start-ups direct and full access to the state-of-the-art electronic payments system would increase competition, reduce transactions costs and ensure financial inclusion for all.
    DOI: 10.1787/86037778-en
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  • 4
    Online Resource
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    The effect of energy prices and environmental policy stringency on manufacturing employment in OECD countries : sector- and firm-level evidence (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1625
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This study empirically assesses the impact of energy prices and environmental policy stringency (EPS) on manufacturing employment in OECD countries over the period 2000- 2014. At the sector level, increases in energy prices and in EPS have a negative and statistically significant impact on total employment in the manufacturing sector. Energy-intensive sectors are most affected, while the impact is not statistically significant for less energy-intensive sectors. Even in highly energy-intensive sectors, however, the size of the effect is relatively small. Moreover, higher energy prices increase the probability of firm exit, but they have a statistically significant and small positive effect on the employment level of surviving firms. Accelerated firm exit allows surviving firms to expand, boosting firm-level employment. Therefore, the analysis demonstrates that there exist transition costs in the short run to imposing stricter environmental policies, as some workers are forced to move away from affected firms and sectors, even if many of these job losses are unlikely to be permanent as laid-off workers may ultimately find other jobs, notably in the services sector.
    DOI: 10.1787/899eb13f-en
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  • 5
    Online Resource
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    Boosting productivity in the United Kingdom's service sectors (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1629
    Keywords: productivity ; digitalisation ; barriers to trade and investment ; United Kingdom ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The United Kingdom has been among the most affected OECD economies by the COVID-19 crisis, reflecting the high share of services in output and its integration in the world economy. Productivity growth in the United Kingdom has consistently underperformed relative to expectations and was more disappointing than in most other OECD economies since at least the global financial crisis. Sluggish productivity growth in the service sectors was the main factor behind this weak performance. Raising productivity will help to sustain employment and wages but will require a broad range of policies. Keeping low barriers to trade and competition in the UK service sectors will create a supportive environment for strong productivity performance. Prioritising digital infrastructure in the allocation of the planned increase in public investment is expected to bring large productivity dividends. Reviewing the system of support to small firms in the light of the COVID-19 crisis will help to re-prioritise resources towards young innovative firms. Further increasing public spending on training to develop the digital skills of low-qualified workers, which have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, will be a double-dividend policy, boosting productivity and lowering inequality.
    DOI: 10.1787/78f4022e-en
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    Firm investments in skills and capital in the UK services sector (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1632
    Keywords: Human capital ; physical capital ; training ; EU exit ; Financial Crisis ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Investments in both human and physical capital are key drivers of economic growth and productivity gains. The United Kingdom has had a turbulent recent history, being strongly affected by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and more recently voting to leave the European Union, its largest trading partner. We use firm-level survey data for the UK services sector to show that firms were less likely to increase expenditure on worker training in the periods following each event. In the period following the EU Referendum, firms were 9% less likely to increase expenditure on worker training relative to the period before the referendum. The effects were most severe for larger firms and for those located in London and the South East. The impacts also varied across industries, with firms in real estate, professional, scientific and technical activities among those most negatively affected, while administrative activities and accommodation services were least negatively affected. We see similar changes in expenditure on all forms of physical capital available in the data: IT; vehicles, plants and machinery; and land and buildings. Following the EU Referendum, firms were also more likely to reduce training expenditure, although the magnitudes of the changes were smaller than those following the Financial Crisis of 2008.
    DOI: 10.1787/c595cf3b-en
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  • 7
    Online Resource
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    Automatic fiscal stabilisers : recent evolution and policy options to boost their effectiveness (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1636
    Keywords: automatic fiscal stabilisers ; fiscal policy ; business cycles ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Building on the automatic fiscal stabilisers literature, this paper assesses how automatic stabilisers have evolved over the past two decades by analysing changes in the personal income tax and social benefit systems. In three-quarters of the 35 OECD countries analysed, indicators of the strength of automatic stabilisers (aggregate elasticities of household income after tax with respect to the cycle and aggregate net replacement rates) changed little or moderately over the past two decades, suggesting broadly stable automatic stabilisers of household disposable income. The paper discusses pros and cons of several policy options to strengthen automatic stabilisers in the current environment. The effectiveness and possible side effects, particularly related to disincentives to work, vary across policy options. Consequently, policy reform proposals should be carefully assessed in a country-specific context and take into account other important policy objectives of tax and benefit systems.
    DOI: 10.1787/816b1b06-en
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  • 8
    Online Resource
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    Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19 (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1637
    Keywords: trade ; global value chains ; shocks ; diversification ; relocalisation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness.
    DOI: 10.1787/3e4b7ecf-en
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  • 9
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    Thailand's education system and skills imbalances : assessment and policy recommendations (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1641
    Keywords: Education quality ; Accessible schooling ; Education expansion ; STEM skills ; Skills imbalances ; Lifelong learning ; Adult education ; Thailand ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In light of population ageing, globalisation, automation, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand’s labour market is being significantly reshaped, and so are the skills required for higher employability. This paper analyses the capacity of Thailand’s education and training system to develop relevant skills from the pre-primary to higher education level, and explores the current state of skills imbalances in the country. It identifies accessibility of schooling, provision of relevant teacher training, and sustained competitiveness of higher education institutions as key areas for improvement. It also points to large skills shortages in the education, and health and social work sectors, and prevalent qualification and field-of-study mismatches. The findings highlight that a responsive education system, together with high-quality life-long learning opportunities that are accessible to all and aligned with skill needs, will be essential to equip Thai people with the right skills for navigating the rapidly changing world.
    DOI: 10.1787/b79addb6-en
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  • 10
    Online Resource
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    The decline in labour mobility in the United States : insights from new administrative data (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1644
    Keywords: job-to-job flows ; labour mobility ; geographic mobility ; ageing ; United States ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Job mobility is essential for a well-functioning market economy and for individual workers to boost their wages. This paper provides a re-assessment of job mobility in the United States during 2000-2018, based on a novel administrative data source covering almost all workers and job flows. First, aggregate job hire and job separation rates have declined over time, especially in the 2000s. This is mainly driven by flows into and out of nonemployment, while job-to-job hires during 2016-2018 had recovered to their peak levels prior to the global financial crisis. Examination of job mobility across different individual and firm-level characteristics shows comparatively higher job-to-job flows for youth, the less educated, non-whites and individuals working in young firms. In addition, observed job movers in these groups experience the largest earnings gain on average from job-to-job changes. Second, a spatial look at job mobility shows net job-to-job flows towards Western and Southern States. The aggregate rate of interstate job-to-job hires has been stable since 2000 and the observed job-to-job movers on average get a substantial boost to earnings by moving farther away and switching industries. Third, the paper briefly considers the influence of demographic changes on job mobility, one important driver identified in previous work. While ageing may explain around half of the downward trend in job hire and separation rates, other factors matter too.
    DOI: 10.1787/9af7f956-en
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  • 11
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    Reducing poverty and social disparities in Lithuania (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1649
    Keywords: active labour market policies ; benefits ; education ; healthcare ; long-term care ; pensions ; poverty ; social services ; transfer system ; work incentives ; Lithuania ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Reducing poverty remains an important challenge, and the COVID-19-crisis may further reinforce social vulnerabilities. Although it has declined lately, relative poverty remains high in international comparison and is distributed unevenly across population groups with the elderly, people with disabilities, lone parents, the low-educated and the unemployed being particularly affected. A comprehensive approach is required to ensure an effective transition out of poverty and social exclusion. Reforms should strengthen income protection by ensuring that cash benefits provide adequate and tailored support to those in need. An individual-based approach is also essential for the provision of social services to reduce deficits in important areas such as social housing and long-term care for the elderly. Equity in educational opportunity and outcomes could be strengthened further, starting at the early school years, as not all children benefit from early childhood education and care services. Progress in this domain is also crucial for striking a better work-family balance and improving work incentives. More and better quality jobs in the formal sector, especially for the low-skilled, are crucial for reducing poverty. Enlarged participation in life-long learning programmes can help re-skilling and up-skilling towards higher incomes. Increased spending on well-designed labour market activation policies is also important for tackling poverty effectively.
    DOI: 10.1787/b631de7d-en
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  • 12
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    Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak : assessment of risks and policy responses (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1651
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; Schock ; Verbindlichkeiten ; Kapitalstruktur ; Investitionsentscheidung ; Europa ; COVID-19 ; insolvency ; debt ; equity ; investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the likelihood of corporate insolvency and the potential implications of debt overhang of non-financial corporations induced by economic shock associated with the outbreak of COVID-19. Based on simple accounting models, it evaluates the extent to which firms deplete their equity buffers and increase their leverage ratios in the course of the COVID-19 crisis. Next, relying on regression analysis and looking at the historical relationship between firms’ leverage and investment, it examines the potential impact of higher debt levels on investment during the recovery. Against this background, the discussion outlines a number of policy options to flatten the curve of crisis-related insolvencies, which could potentially affect otherwise viable firms, and to lessen the risk of debt-overhang, which could slow down the speed of recovery.
    DOI: 10.1787/747a8226-en
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  • 13
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    Policies for a more efficient and inclusive housing market in Luxembourg (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1594
    Keywords: Economics ; Luxembourg ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing prices have been growing strongly in Luxembourg, stoked by population growth, a high rate of household formation and limited use of land available for construction. Increases in price-to-income ratio mainly reflect high valuations of residential real estate, which rise faster than incomes, leading to increasing financial risks related to household indebtedness. Housing affordability has been deteriorating in particular for low-income households who do not profit from highly subsidised social housing. A mix of policies addressing supply-side restrictions, such as land hoarding and resistance to densification, together with policies to increase housing tenure neutrality and better targeted fiscal support will be needed to make the housing market more efficient and inclusive. Measures increasing the opportunity costs of unused land in urbanised areas and unoccupied dwellings could be combined with further reform of land-use planning, including measures involving municipalities in selectively increasing residential density in areas well-connected to the transport network. Housing tenure neutrality could be supported by removing or at least reducing mortgage interest deductibility and other fiscal instruments supporting homeownership and by developing the recurrent taxation of immovable property into a more important fiscal resource based on up-to-date real estate valuations. The supply of social rental housing should be stepped up and access to it made conditional on recurrent means testing ensuring better targeting to those most in need. Private rental sector could be expanded by relaxing the rules on renting parts of housing units and conversion of existing dwellings into rental housing.
    DOI: 10.1787/85ae6967-en
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  • 14
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    Productivity and finance : the intangible assets channel : a firm level analysis (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1596
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using a cross-country firm level panel dataset from 1995 to 2015, this paper revisits the finance–productivity nexus by looking at the role of intangible assets. It argues that due to their specific characteristics, such as valuation uncertainty and lower pledgeability, financing the purchase of intangible assets is more difficult than that of tangible assets. As a result, financial frictions are expected to be more binding for productivity growth in sectors where intangibles have become a pivotal component in firms production function. The analysis relies on a panel fixed effects econometric approach, several indices to capture financial frictions at the firm level and a new measure of intangible intensity at the industry level. We provide evidence that financial frictions act as a drag on productivity growth and especially so with respect to firms operating in intangible intensive sectors. These findings, which are robust to alternative specifications, shed light on the role of financial factors in explaining the productivity slowdown in OECD countries and provide support for using intangible intensity as a new dimension to proxy the relative exposure of industries to financing frictions.
    DOI: 10.1787/d13a21b0-en
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  • 15
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    Coverage and representativeness of Orbis data (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2020, 06
    Series Statement: OECD science, technology and industry working papers
    Keywords: Science and Technology ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes the coverage and representativeness of Orbis, a commercial database of firm-level records across many countries. Such databases can provide key insights into global economic trends and shed light on how policies affect firms within and across countries. As a benchmark, the paper uses industry-level data from the OECD STAN dataset as well as micro-aggregated data from the OECD MultiProd and DynEmp projects, which draw on official microdata representative of the entire firm population. Results indicate that Orbis is more suitable for studies that: i) take a global perspective rather than make comparisons across countries; ii) analyse top performers and multinationals rather than underperforming firms; and iii) focus on mean performance or changes within firms rather than the entire firm distribution or entry and exit.
    DOI: 10.1787/c7bdaa03-en
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  • 16
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    Building the evidence for OECD integrity and anticorruption agenda : the current situation and avenues for future analysis (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1614
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Potential economic benefits of integrity and anti-corruption policies seem large. Nevertheless, much of the existing empirical evidence lacks precise and actionable policy indicators that could guide policy makers on tangible improvements of successful reforms. To move the policy analysis further, both policy and outcome indicators are needed. In this context, the paper reviews OECD’s involvement in integrity and anti-corruption agenda as well as available indicators of integrity and anti-corruption policies and outcomes. It outlines avenues for future analysis that include assessment of public procurement procedures and policy drivers explaining experience with corruption and public spending efficiency.
    DOI: 10.1787/80ebe6e6-en
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  • 17
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    Trade liberalisation and product mix adjustments : evidence from South African firms (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1619
    Keywords: Economics ; South Africa ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Theoretical and empirical studies on multi-product firms have shown that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade liberalisation. This paper uses the South African Revenue Service (SARS) and National Treasury (NT) firm-level panel to assess the response of South African firms to trade policy changes and demand shocks in destination markets between 2010 and 2016. This paper shows that South African multi-product manufacturers shift their exports towards their core products when competition intensifies in their export destinations and that these dynamics lead to productivity gains at the firm level. Also, trade liberalisation policies in the destination country positively affect the number of exported goods (extensive margin) as well as the average value of already exported products (intensive margin) for multi-product exporters, whereas restrictive measures negatively affect the extensive margin. Regarding trade policy measures, results suggest that tariff liberalisation only amplifies the adjustment of South African exporters if tariff cuts affect South African firms directly, while tariff cuts benefitting other foreign competitors mitigate within firm adjustments. By contrast, the reduction of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) always positively affects South African exporters.
    DOI: 10.1787/f8499821-en
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  • 18
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    Rejuvenating Greece's labour market to generate more and higher-quality jobs (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1622
    Keywords: Economics ; Greece ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Greece’s labour market entered the COVID-19 shock following several years of sustained employment growth and with wages picking up. Unemployment remained high and employment rates were low, especially among women, the young and older workers. The shock led to a sharp fall in labour force activity and has stalled new hiring. The improved social protection and temporary support measures have helped to support households’ incomes and protect jobs during the COVID-19 crisis. However, high tax and social security contribution rates, together with little in-work support for the low-paid, continue abetting high structural informality. This heightens insecurity – by excluding many workers from activation policies or social and employment protection – and weakens productivity. Boosting the capacity of employment services and activation policies would support the recovery from the COVID-19 shock, in addition to durably improving employment prospects especially of long-term unemployed. Giving workplaces further flexibility to adapt collective agreements to specific circumstances would help align wage growth with productivity developments and help businesses to weather the COVID-19 shock. Building on the population’s solid education levels by equipping workers with the skills needed by the labour market can support employment and incomes. This will require a substantial boost to professional education and training at all levels and ages. This chapter applies the 2018 OECD Jobs Strategy to Greece to identify reforms that can help to overcome the COVID-19 crisis and create a virtuous cycle between productivity, job creation, and well-being.
    DOI: 10.1787/8ea5033a-en
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  • 19
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    Should I stay or should I go? : housing and residential mobility across OECD countries (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1626
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper delivers new evidence on the individual and policy drivers of residential mobility, covering a wide range of housing-related policies and conditions but also other relevant policy areas. The analysis uses household-level micro datasets allowing for an investigation of the drivers of the decision to move for a large number of OECD countries; as well for identifying differential policy effects across socio-economic groups, underscoring the distributional effect of policies. The evidence strongly supports the view that housing conditions and structural policies influence people’s decisions and possibilities to move. A more responsive housing supply is associated with higher residential mobility, suggesting that reforming land-use and planning policies may facilitate moving by reducing house price differences across locations. Social cash and in-kind spending on housing are positively correlated with residential mobility. Higher housing transaction costs, including from transfer taxes, are associated with lower residential mobility, especially among younger households, which are more likely to be first time-buyers. Stricter rental regulations are associated with lower residential mobility, particularly for renters, low-educated and low-income households. Beyond housing policies, more generous cash income support to low-wage jobseekers and minimum income schemes embedded in social transfers are positively associated with residential mobility; while excessive job protection on regular contracts is negatively associated with mobility, particularly for youth, low-income and low-educated individuals.
    DOI: 10.1787/d91329c2-en
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    What drives firm and sectoral productivity in the United Kingdom and in selected European countries? (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1630
    Keywords: productivity ; firm-level ; sectoral ; barriers to trade and investment ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper examines the link between barriers to trade and investment and productivity performance, in the United Kingdom and selected European countries using both firm-level and sectoral data. Barriers to trade and investment appear to be a robust determinant of productivity in the long term. Control variables such as spending on R&D and human capital also play a role, though their effects depend on the way they are measured or on the sample. The results are robust across a range of productivity measures as well as to changes in the sectoral coverage and the set of controls.
    DOI: 10.1787/36ceb723-en
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    Walking the tightrope : avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1633
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; lockdown ; non-pharmaceutical interventions ; mobility ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs.
    DOI: 10.1787/9cc22d8c-en
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    Seizing the productive potential of digital change in Estonia (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1639
    Keywords: Digitalisation ; productivity ; skills ; automation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Technologies such as cloud computing, software to automate supplier- and customer relations, online platforms and artificial intelligence seem to offer a vast potential to boost productivity and living standards. However, aggregate productivity growth has declined sharply across the OECD over the past decades. Estonia is no exception, though it is well placed to gain from digital technology diffusion, with strong digital foundations, including advanced and secure physical and digital infrastructure and world-leading e-government services. Turning this potential into a productivity boost necessitates speeding up digital take-up also outside of the ICT sector and fostering the complementarities between digital technologies, skills and policies. Skills are high in general, and the supply of ICT specialists is picking up. There is still potential to improve digital user skills, and notably to put skills to better use by improving management skills and practices. Business-friendly regulations in general and pioneering attempts in some areas will likely spur the adoption of digital technologies. However, insolvencies are too slow and costly, command-and-control regulations relatively frequent and public ownership in network industries is high. Strengthening collaboration between industry associations, labour unions and industry clusters within technology investments, internationalisation, skill supply and management practices could help the country better realise complementarities between technologies, skills and policies, and thereby tap deeper into the productivity potential offered by digital technologies.
    DOI: 10.1787/999c7d5a-en
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    Promoting the diffusion of technology to boost productivity and well-being in Korea (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1653
    Keywords: Korea ; digital divide ; productivity ; well-being ; SMEs ; regulatory sandboxes ; COVID-19 ; Economics ; Korea, Republic of ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Korea is a top player in emerging digital technologies, with an outstanding digital infrastructure and a dynamic ICT sector. The COVID-19 outbreak highlighted the importance of digitalisation to contain the spread of the virus, by allowing quick testing and tracing of infected people, and spurred the development of the "untact economy". Remote access both facilitated physical distancing and mitigated the economic impact of the crisis by enabling more people to continue working. Digital technologies offer opportunities to raise firms’ productivity and the population’s well-being. However, wide productivity gaps between large firms and SMEs and between manufacturing and services weigh on economy-wide productivity, which is far below the OECD average. A wide skills gap between youth and older generations prevents an increasing share of the population from taking part in and enjoying the benefits from a digitalised economy. This paper suggests ways to narrow the digital divide by enhancing the diffusion of digital technologies among firms and among individuals. Increased participation in quality ICT education and training for students, teachers, SME workers and older people is key to address the lack of adequate skills and awareness of digital benefits or dangers (online security, cyberbullying, addiction). Promoting innovation networks between SMEs, academia and large firms through vouchers or platforms can support SMEs’ R&D and commercialisation of innovative goods and services. Waiving stringent regulations through regulatory sandboxes can help identify and alter regulations that hinder the adoption and diffusion of digital technologies.
    DOI: 10.1787/51ea75a5-en
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    Adaptive trees : a new approach to economic forecasting (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1593
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the continuous change in the distribution of economic variables). The forecast methodology aims at addressing these challenges. The algorithm is said to be “adaptive” insofar as it adapts to the quantity of structural change it detects in the economy by giving more weight to more recent observations. The performance of the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six major economies (USA, UK, Germany, France, Japan, Italy). The performance of Adaptive Trees is on average broadly similar to forecasts obtained from the OECD’s Indicator Model and generally performs better than a simple AR(1) benchmark model as well as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees.
    DOI: 10.1787/5569a0aa-en
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    Challenges and opportunities of India's enhanced participation in the global economy (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1597
    Keywords: Economics ; India ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: India is becoming a key player in the global economy. It performs well in exporting information and technology services, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products. India’s large diaspora is well integrated abroad, helping to develop new export markets and facilitate the transfer of technology and know-how. India could perform better in some domains. These include labour-intensive manufacturing exports and foreign direct investment. Better performance in these areas would boost job creation and thus make growth more inclusive. It would require improving further infrastructure, in particular transport and energy provision, modernising product market regulations, developing skills, and reconsidering barriers to trade and investment. OECD simulations suggest that India would be a major beneficiary were barriers to trade and investment be reduced multilaterally. In the absence of a multilateral agreement, the economy would also gain from a unilateral liberalisation of trade and investment. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of India http://www.oecd.org/economy/india-economic-snapshot/
    DOI: 10.1787/a6facd16-en
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    Workforce composition, productivity and pay : the role of firms in wage inequality (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1603
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In many OECD countries, low productivity growth has coincided with rising inequality. Widening wage and productivity gaps between firms may have contributed to both developments. This paper uses a new harmonised cross-country linked employer-employee dataset for 14 OECD countries to analyse the role of firms in wage inequality. The main finding is that, on average across countries, changes in the dispersion of average wages between firms explain about half of the changes in overall wage inequality. Two thirds of these changes in between-firm wage inequality are accounted for by changes in productivity-related premia that firms pay their workers above common market wages. The remaining third can be attributed to changes in workforce composition, including the sorting of high-skilled workers into high-paying firms.
    DOI: 10.1787/52ab4e26-en
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    Measuring occupational entry regulations : a new OECD approach (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1606
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper explores cross-country differences in the design and stringency of occupational entry regulations (OER) in five professional services, nine personal services and nurses, based on a new composite indicator. The indicator – which is available for a total of 18 OECD countries, India and South Africa, with Canada and the United States being covered at the province-level or state-level – provides a comparative source of information on the various approaches used across countries to regulate entry into services. It notably distinguishes between different areas of regulation (administrative, qualification and mobility requirements) and different types of regulation (licensing, a situation in which only supervisors require a license, and certification). According to these metrics, the stringency of OER varies significantly across occupations, with stark differences emerging between personal and professional services, which are typically subject to far stricter entry requirements.
    DOI: 10.1787/296dae6b-en
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    Assessing the efficiency of environmental policy design and evaluation : results from a 2018 cross-country survey (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1611
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ambitious environmental policies are necessary to enable the transition to a greener economy. However, these policies could impose economic burdens on firms through different channels. They may increase barriers to entry and distort competition. They may also impose transaction and administrative costs related to permitting and licensing. If stringent environmental policies can be designed in a way that minimises such economic burdens, they can facilitate the achievement of economic and environmental goals and a cleaner growth model.
    DOI: 10.1787/482f8fbe-en
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    Capital flow deflection under the magnifying glass (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1613
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In a financially interconnected world, individual countries’ policy choices affect other economies and can become a source of international shocks. Leveraging on a new quarterly dataset of capital control adjustments, we find renewed evidence that the introduction of capital controls in one economy increases capital inflows to other similar borrowing economies.
    DOI: 10.1787/398180d0-en
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    Enhancing business dynamism and consumer welfare in Costa Rica with regulatory reform (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1615
    Keywords: Economics ; Costa Rica ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Regulations of product markets serve legitimate objectives but, when ill-designed, can impose unnecessary restrictions on competition, and therefore on business dynamism, productivity and ultimately well-being. A recent update of the OECD’s Product Market Regulation indicator for Costa Rica shows that there is ample room to improve regulations. Costa Rica’s economic development is hindered by heavy state involvement and high barriers to entry, compared to both OECD countries and regional peers. This paper discusses options to improve product market regulations, based on international best practices. Regulatory reform can improve consumer welfare by boosting competition and thus lowering prices of key goods and services, which in turn increases the purchasing power of low-income households and reduces poverty. By raising productivity, stronger competition will also allow higher wages. Reducing barriers to entry can facilitate firm creation, boosting investment and jobs.
    DOI: 10.1787/53250d35-en
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    Services trade costs in the United States : a simulation based on the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1617
    Keywords: Economics ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While services account for almost 80% of GDP in the United States and a growing share of global trade, regulatory barriers to services trade around the world are still high. Using a hypothetical liberalisation scenario, this paper assesses the potential reduction of trade costs that could be achieved in 17 US services sectors. The analysis relies on the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) which records barriers to services trade in 46 economies. The illustrative scenario assumes a 50% reduction in the gap between the current STRI score of the United States and the score of the least restrictive country in each sector. The results highlight the economic benefits of aligning US services regulation with global best practice. The average reduction in trade costs across the 17 sectors analysed would amount to 9.7 percentage points, with a quarter of the sectors experiencing reductions larger than 14.1 percentage points and another quarter experiencing reductions smaller than 5.3 percentage points.
    DOI: 10.1787/706b87c1-en
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    The future of housing : policy scenarios (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1624
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: By combining fresh estimates of housing supply and prices with recent long-term projections for their fundamental drivers such as population, income and interest rates, this paper produces scenarios for residential investment and real house prices up to 2050. For half of the covered countries, projected increases in house prices are large enough to outpace real incomes, thereby further eroding housing affordability. The paper illustrates and quantifies how housing policies can make a difference. Removing mortgage interest relief eases price pressures and can contribute to more affordable housing. Likewise, streamlining land-use governance and easing rental control can help unlock housing supply, make housing markets more efficient and, ultimately, housing more affordable.
    DOI: 10.1787/0adf02cb-en
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    Anti-competitive and regulatory barriers in the United States labour market (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1627
    Keywords: Economics ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Occupational licensing and non-competition agreements are two important types of labour market regulation in the United States, both covering around one fifth of all workers. While some regulation is needed to protect safety and ensure quality of services, it also creates entry barriers and reduces competition with important costs for job mobility, earnings and productivity growth. Employment opportunities for low-skilled workers and disadvantaged groups tend to be particularly affected by these barriers. The States are mainly responsible for labour market regulation and the variation across States is similar to the variation in the European Union. Harmonising requirements and scaling back occupational licensing as well as restricting the use of non-competition covenants could help to circumvent the secular decline in dynamism. However, attempts to reform often face stiff opposition from associations of professionals. The federal government has limited influence, but can in some cases help by shifting the burden from workers to meet regulatory requirements onto States and employers to show that high and differing regulatory standards are needed.
    DOI: 10.1787/38649656-en
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    The trade impact of the UK’s exit from the EU single market (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1631
    Keywords: Brexit ; free-trade agreement ; general-equilibrium model ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the sectoral trade impact in the United Kingdom and in EU countries of the UK’s exit from the Single Market, using the OECD general-equilibrium METRO model. A comprehensive free-trade agreement could lead to a fall by about 6.1% of UK exports and 7.8% of UK imports in the medium term compared to a situation where the United Kingdom would stay in the Single Market. Cost would come essentially from rising technical barriers and sanitary and phytosanitory measures on goods and rising trade costs on services. Rules of origin and border transition costs would have a small effect. Output losses in the European Union (0.4-0.5%) are expected to be less pronounced, but would vary markedly across individual countries. Ireland would experience the largest losses. Losses would also vary across sectors. Accounting for the regulatory impact of ending free movement of people for EU nationals on services trade is expected to bring some additional costs to the services economy. Those losses could be partly compensated by growth-enhancing changes to UK regulations, but only to a limited extent.
    DOI: 10.1787/682c2995-en
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    Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1634
    Keywords: nowcasting ; Google Trends ; high-frequency ; machine learning ; neural network ; interpretability ; COVID-19 ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper introduces the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity for 46 OECD and G20 countries using Google Trends search data. The Tracker performs well in pseudo-real time simulations including around the COVID-19 crisis. The underlying model adds to the previous Google Trends literature in two respects: (1) the data are adjusted for common long-term bias and (2) the data include variables based on both Google Search categories and topics (the latter being a collection of related keywords), thus further exploiting the potential of Google Trends. The paper highlights the predictive power of specific topics, including "bankruptcies", "economic crisis", "investment", "luggage" and "mortgage". Calibration is performed using a neural network that captures non-linear patterns, which are shown to be consistent with economic intuition using machine learning interpretability tools ("Shapley values"). The tracker sheds light on the recent downturn and the dynamics of the rebound, and provides evidence about lasting shifts in consumption patterns.
    DOI: 10.1787/6b9c7518-en
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    Banks, debts and workers (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1640
    Keywords: Finance ; credit ; labour earnings ; income growth ; income risk ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Private debt owed to banks and other financial institutions has been at unprecedented high levels. This paper studies the role of these high levels of debt for workers, based on an assembled micro-dataset that harmonises household surveys from 29 OECD countries. High debt is found to be associated with two bad outcomes for workers: weaker wage growth and an increased risk that they encounter a sharp fall in their wages. People who tend to be particularly affected are the low-skilled, individuals with unstable employment paths and financially vulnerable households. Strong bank supervision and macroprudential measures that aim to avoid credit overexpansion are two policies that can improve the links of private debt with labour income growth and risk. Overall, the evidence in this paper points to finance as one factor behind wage stagnation and the social divisions in today’s labour markets.
    DOI: 10.1787/89ebdce7-en
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    Why are some U.S. cities successful, while others are not? : empirical evidence from machine learning (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1643
    Keywords: Labour mobility ; job-to-job flows ; metropolitan areas ; clustering analysis ; United States ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The U.S. population has become increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas. However, there are striking differences in between the performances of big cities: some of them have been very successful and have been able to pull away from the rest, while others have stagnated or even declined. The main objective of this paper is to characterize U.S. metropolitan areas according to their labor-market performance: which metropolitan areas are struggling and falling behind? Which ones are flourishing? Which ones are staying resilient by adapting to shocks? We rely on an unsupervised machine learning technique called Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) to conduct this empirical investigation. The data comes from a number of sources including the new Job-to-Job (J2J) flows dataset from the Census Bureau, which reports the near universe of job movements in and out of employment at the metropolitan level. We characterize the fate of metropolitan areas by tracking their job mobility rate, unemployment rate, income growth, population increase, net change in job-to-job mobility and GDP growth. Our results indicate that the 372 metropolitan areas under examination can be categorized into four statistically distinct groups: booming areas (67), prosperous mega metropolitan areas (99), resilient areas (149) and distressed metropolitan areas (57). The results show that areas that are doing well are predominantly located in the south and the west. The main features of their success have revolved around embracing digital technologies, adopting local regulations friendly to job mobility and business creation, avoiding strict rules on land-use and housing market, and improving the wellbeing of the city’s population. These results highlight that cities adopting well-targeted policies can accelerate the return to growth after a shock.
    DOI: 10.1787/7f77c2e7-en
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    Enhancing the efficiency and equity of the tax system in Israel (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1646
    Keywords: taxes ; personal income taxes ; business taxes ; tax administration ; environmental taxation ; tax avoidance ; transfers ; tax evasion ; subsidies ; Israel ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Israel’s tax mix is reasonably growth- and employment-friendly. Nonetheless, tax reform is needed to foster an inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and help tackle Israel’s main economic and societal challenges of high poverty, including among those in work, and slow aggregate productivity growth. The earned income tax credit has been an effective tool to reduce poverty and increase employment among the low-skilled and could be further expanded. The business tax system provides large benefits that aim to incentivise companies to become more productive, but the existing design may create distortions. This preferential tax treatment should be reviewed with a view to better targeting the scheme to ensure net benefits to society. There is also scope to simplify the tax system by removing inefficient tax expenditures and better leverage Israel’s impressive technological capacity to further lower compliance costs and reduce tax evasion. Finally, excise taxes should be adjusted, including by taxing carbon more heavily, to improve environmental and health outcomes.
    DOI: 10.1787/2b311bcc-en
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    Labour market institutions for an ageing labour force in Slovenia (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1648
    Keywords: Population Ageing ; Labour Participation ; Labour Allocation ; Economics ; Slovenia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Population ageing will lead to a smaller and older workforce. Looking forward, this means that growth will increasingly depend on ensuring the best use of Slovenian workers. This implies keeping older and experience workers longer in employment and better support difficult-to-employ low-skilled job-seekers. In addition, better labour allocation will enable workers to realise their productivity and wage potential. This requires a greater role for social partners in securing individual wages that better reflect efforts.
    DOI: 10.1787/9eca1535-en
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    Regional development in Lithuania : a tale of two economies (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1650
    Keywords: regional development ; regional productivity ; labour mobility ; regional disparities ; education ; regional infrastructure ; fiscal decentralisation ; Lithuania ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Regional differences in GDP per capita, productivity, employment and poverty in Lithuania are among the largest in the OECD, and they have increased over the last decade. The country still recovers from the legacy of the Soviet planning system which aimed at balanced geographical distribution of industrial activity and left many unviable firms and jobs particularly in rural areas. Unemployment is high in many regions, while mobility of excess labour towards economically stronger areas remains insufficient. Some regions feature "surplus infrastructure", while others lack investment. This paper looks at potential reasons for persisting disparities and assesses recent policy initiatives to reduce them. Stark gaps in education outcomes between rural and urban areas should be addressed, mainly by reorganising the municipal school network and by fostering firm-based learning, i.e. apprenticeships. The digital infrastructure is weak in rural regions and should be strengthened to allow access to high-quality jobs in all parts of the country, including through teleworking. Housing supply in economically strong areas should be increased, while urban sprawl should be avoided. Finally, municipal governments should be given more fiscal power, while the planned functional regions should help foster inter-municipal coordination.
    DOI: 10.1787/5d6e3010-en
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    Enhancing administrative and fiscal decentralisation in the Czech Republic (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1652
    Keywords: local government ; decentralisation ; administrative fragmentation ; municipal mergers ; municipal cooperation ; public services ; Economics ; Czech Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: There is considerable regional variation in incomes and poverty in the Czech Republic and gaps have grown over time. With the highest number of municipalities per head in the OECD, subnational government is very fragmented and the resulting lack of capacity at the local level reduces the quality of public services and impedes the uptake of effective development projects. This paper discusses various policy options to address the challenges faced by Czech subnational governments and proposes reforms to enhance their effectiveness. Mergers of municipalities would be an obvious way towards greater integration, but this may be politically difficult. Mandating inter-municipal co-operation over a legally defined set of public services can be an alternative way of improving efficiency and the quality of service delivery. Tweaking the tax sharing system to disincentivise small size of municipalities and to make subnational governments more autonomous could be steps towards higher efficiency. Improving and consolidating the delivery of education and health services at the local level is also needed in the context of demographic change.
    DOI: 10.1787/c1d0c9bb-en
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    The 2018 edition of the OECD PMR indicators and database : methodological improvements and policy insights (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1604
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents the latest edition of the OECD indicators of product market regulation (PMR), which measure regulatory stance in 35 OECD and 11 non-OECD countries. This update is based on a new methodology, which has been implemented to ensure that the PMR indicators maintain their relevance in the context of evolving insights from economic theory, modifications in the economic and business environment, and changes in the practice of regulation. The results show that most OECD countries have a regulatory stance that is reasonably competition-friendly, while the 11 non-OECD countries lag behind, though there is considerable variety across them.
    DOI: 10.1787/2cfb622f-en
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  • 43
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    Occupational entry regulations and their effects on productivity in services : firm-level evidence (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1605
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses the possible dynamic effects of occupational entry regulations (OER) on productivity. It combines firm-level productivity data with a new cross-country policy indicator measuring the stringency of OER by the presence of administrative burdens, qualifications requirements, and mobility restrictions, for five professional and ten personal services. The evidence suggests that bold reforms easing OER, especially those concerning qualification requirements, could help increase the contribution of personal and professional services to aggregate productivity growth via two channels: the acceleration of their catch up to best global practices (within-firm channel), where firms in regulated sectors could gain up to 2.5 percentage points of productivity on average; and a higher contribution of labour reallocation to firms’ employment growth (between-firm channel), which could increase by up to 10 percent for the most productive firms.
    DOI: 10.1787/c8b88d8b-en
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    North Korea : the last transition economy? (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1607
    Keywords: Economics ; Korea, Democratic People's Republic of ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The North Korean economy has been a statistical black hole for decades but is undergoing substantial transformations. Rapid post-war industrialisation was not sustained beyond the mid-1960s and South Korea’s economy far outpaced North Korea’s during the next three decades, during which trend growth declined and turned negative as Soviet support ended and the terms of trade with China became less friendly. Today, GDP in North Korea is reportedly lower than in 1990, notwithstanding a larger population, and gross national income per capita is probably down to only a tiny fraction of South Korea’s.
    DOI: 10.1787/82dee315-en
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  • 45
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    Housing and inequality : the case of Luxembourg and its cross-border workers (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1608
    Keywords: Economics ; Luxembourg ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The rate of homeownership is close to the OECD average in Luxembourg. However, strong house price increases, mainly driven by population growth and limited housing supply, led to a deterioration in affordability of housing, in particular for the young and added to the wealth gap between homeowners and renters.
    DOI: 10.1787/666babc1-en
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  • 46
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    Technological diffusion and managing the associated economic transitions in Ireland (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1610
    Keywords: Economics ; Ireland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Technological change is transforming Ireland’s economic structures, leading to new jobs and innovative products that benefit consumers. Adoption of new technologies by businesses has been high relative to many other OECD economies, but it has been uneven across industries and the impact on productivity growth in most firms has been modest so far.
    DOI: 10.1787/ca48dd68-en
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  • 47
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    Housing for all in India (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1612
    Keywords: Economics ; India ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing is key for well-being and for spatial and social mobility. In India, the housing market is characterised by excess demand for affordable dwellings, a small rental market and an oversupply of high-end housing, especially in urban areas.
    DOI: 10.1787/b1e68648-en
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  • 48
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    Revisiting the effect of statutory pension ages on the participation rate (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1616
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Many OECD governments have enacted, or are contemplating, future increases in statutory pension ages, sometimes provoking vociferous political opposition. Empirical cross-country estimation work consistently finds that coefficients on statutory pension ages are positive and highly statistically significant in explaining labour-force participation at older ages. There is also some consistency in the magnitude of the estimated effects across studies, although this magnitude seems surprisingly modest when translated into the implied effect on average retirement ages: an increase in statutory pension ages by one year is typically estimated to increase the average effective retirement age by only about two months.
    DOI: 10.1787/3f430e2b-en
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  • 49
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    Unpicking Portugal's export performance : a microdata analysis (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1618
    Keywords: Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Portugal has notably increased its international openness over recent decades, with exports’ share of GDP rising by 20 percentage points since 1993. This analysis couples microdata with panel regression techniques to investigate the drivers of Portuguese export growth over the 1995-2016 period. The results highlight that there was no one single factor behind the export expansion. While an improvement in price competitiveness played a significant role, the majority of the increase in exports was explained by other factors. These include increases in the quality of export products and weak domestic demand that prompted firms to increase their focus on foreign markets. The empirical results also suggest that the restoration of the health of the Portuguese financial sector and its further development is beneficial for export growth.
    DOI: 10.1787/71df6aa3-en
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  • 50
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    Building an inclusive social protection system in South Africa (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1620
    Keywords: Economics ; South Africa ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: South Africa has an incomplete social protection system without a mandatory pension savings scheme. Designing a universal insurance pension system would allow to reduce the important government funded pension grant system and ensure that the old-age population has decent income. Only 40% of employees are contributing to a form of saving-retirement scheme, with often a low pension. Moreover, South Africa has a dual, public and private, health care system. Half of the country’s health-care spending goes to the private sector, which covers only 16% of the population. Moreover, the health care system fails to deliver affordable quality services. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the unequal distribution of health care services between public and private health providers. Around 70% of critical care beds available were in the private health care sector. Finally, the sizeable unconditional cash transfer system though reaching a large share of the population fail to lift many children in the poorest families above the poverty line.
    DOI: 10.1787/e01d1e09-en
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    Leveraging tourism development for sustainable and inclusive growth in South Africa (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1621
    Keywords: Economics ; South Africa ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: South Africa has turned towards tourism development to jump-start its weak economy. As tourism is a labour intensive sector that can also bring foreign currency into the country, the sector was identified as priority area by the South African government. Indeed, a doubling in international tourist arrivals from 1995 to 2017 was accompanied by a tripling of employment directly related to tourism. Despite South Africa’s rich and diverse natural and cultural assets, tourism development has been challenged by the country’s geographic location and perceived safety and security issues. As the country is a long-haul destination for many large source markets, good accessibility and international openness is key to expand international tourism, but current visa regulations put an administrative burden on potential tourists. While increasing tourist arrivals are necessary for tourism development, tourism growth has to be well planned and managed to be sustainable. Although the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and resulting containment measures have hit the economy and in particular tourism, the sector has good potential to support the South African economy and contribute to employment growth post-COVID-19. Tourism provides job opportunities for different skills and experience levels allowing for greater social integration. For tourism development to translate into inclusive growth, the tourism industry needs to be integrated into the local economy and the benefits of tourism must spread geographically to also create economic opportunities in less travelled and less prosperous regions.
    DOI: 10.1787/457c263d-en
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    Modernising state-level regulation and policies to boost mobility in the United States (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1628
    Keywords: labour markets ; cities ; mobility ; land use ; housing supply ; infrastructure ; United States ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The U.S. population is becoming increasingly urban and has gradually shifted to the south and west. Policy restrictions have played a role in preventing dynamic areas expanding, and when they do expand it can be through low-density housing sprawl. Land use restrictions and a sluggish housing supply as well as difficulties in making timely and co-ordinated supply of infrastructure have hindered workers benefiting from new opportunities including through moving. Policies can address these issues by targeting housing affordability, help families move and invest in infrastructure to improve accessibility and connectivity.
    DOI: 10.1787/a06a959b-en
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    How effective are automatic fiscal stabilisers in the OECD countries? (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1635
    Keywords: automatic fiscal stabilisers ; fiscal policy ; household disposable income ; cyclical adjustment of government budget balances ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper proposes an approach to assess the extent of automatic fiscal stabilisation of aggregate household disposable income after a specific shock. The approach is based on the national account identity of household disposable income and elements of the OECD methodology to cyclically adjust budget balances. In a stylised scenario assuming a decline in household market income, automatic stabilisers in 23 OECD countries are found to offset on average around 60% of the shock on impact. Direct taxes provide larger stabilisation than social benefits and social security contributions. There are important differences in the effectiveness of automatic stabilisers across the OECD countries. They mainly reflect non-linear interactions among the size of a specific automatic stabiliser, the elasticity of the automatic stabiliser with respect to a relevant economic variable and the specific shock scenario analysed.
    DOI: 10.1787/f1fb9d6a-en
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    Digital technology adoption, productivity gains in adopting firms and sectoral spill-overs : firm-level evidence from Estonia (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1638
    Keywords: Digitalisation ; productivity ; skills ; training ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: With a newly constructed firm-level dataset combining various survey- and registry data from Statistics Estonia, this paper sheds new light on the labour productivity premium from adopting digital technologies and boosting digital skill use. The productivity premium is decomposed into a direct effect benefitting the firms actually increasing their digital intensity, and an indirect effect of belonging to a sector with high digital intensity. The firm-level productivity premium of being an adopting firm is consistently positive and sizeable across different digital technologies and measures of skill intensity. The evidence also suggests positive spill-over effects in manufacturing sectors and sectors with a high routine task content and thus a high automation potential.
    DOI: 10.1787/ba9d00be-en
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    Making Thailand's services sector more competitive through international trade (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1642
    Keywords: Trade in Services ; Global Value Chains (GVCs) ; Thailand ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Services are an important part of global economic activity and of international trade. Nevertheless, compared to its very large tourism sector, the sector of high-end business services in Thailand remains small. As IT and information, and professional services are traded indirectly through value chains and are now crucial elements of manufacturing, strengthening these services would benefit Thailand in its post-COVID-19 participation of global value chains, enhancing the competitiveness of its manufacturers. This paper analyses how Thailand can seize the opportunity of growing international trade in services. It points out that liberalising services sector markets would strengthen the competitiveness of the services sectors and boost productivity not only in the sectors, but also in manufacturing sectors that rely on these services as input. In this regard, Thailand can benefit more from service-oriented Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Moreover, eliminating FDI restrictions would not only be crucial to spur employment and exports, but also benefit consumers. The paper identifies that, to maximise the benefits of services trade integration, Thailand needs to step up policies to re- and up-skill workers and make the labour market more flexible.
    DOI: 10.1787/f36f505d-en
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    Reducing socio-economic differences between municipalities in Israel (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1645
    Keywords: regional inequality ; municipalities ; fiscal decentralisation ; education ; infrastructure ; housing ; Israel ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite being one of the smallest countries in the OECD, Israel is marked by significant socio-economic disparities, which have a clear spatial dimension. Ethnic and religious groups with weak socio-economic outcomes are not benefitting from the thriving high-tech sector in the centre of the country. As a result, there is a persistent lack of employment opportunities in the peripheral areas alongside skills shortages in the dynamic centre. Inequalities between municipalities are the highest in the OECD. Moreover, the current pandemic has hit poorer Haredi neighbourhoods particularly hard. The government should reduce barriers that prevent segments of the population from fully participating in the economic process and give everyone a similar chance to succeed, regardless of where he or she was born. This will require equal access to high-quality education, affordable housing, reasonable public transportation and improved urban planning in every municipality to reduce spatial divides and segregation of disadvantaged households. Local authorities can play a significant role, since good municipal government and effective policies to achieve national priorities are the best means to improve the outcomes of residents of poor areas.
    DOI: 10.1787/4a8ada63-en
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    Liquidity shortfalls during the COVID-19 outbreak : assessment and policy responses (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1647
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; liquidity ; cash ; job retention ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper investigates the financial vulnerability of non-financial firms during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic crisis. In particular, it evaluates the extent to which firms may run into a liquidity crisis following the COVID-19 outbreak and the impact of stylised policy measures to reduce the risks and depth of such crisis. The analysis relies on three ingredients: a simple accounting model, a large dataset reporting firms’ balance sheets for 14 countries and granular data on the magnitude of the shock measuring the impact of confinement measures on economic activity (notably depending on the capacity of each sector to operate by teleworking). Results suggest that, without any policy intervention, up to 38% of firms would face liquidity shortfalls after 10 months since the implementation of confinement measures. Comparing the impact of different policies (tax deferral, debt moratorium and support to wage payments), the analysis shows that government support to relieve wage bills is the most effective tool to reduce liquidity shortages, followed by debt moratorium policies. Finally, the paper zooms into labour market policies and compares the costefficiency of short-term work and wage subsidies schemes, highlighting how their relative efficiency depends on their design.
    DOI: 10.1787/581dba7f-en
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    Boosting SMEs' internationalisation in Poland (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1654
    Keywords: SMEs ; Global Value Chains (GVCs) ; Productivity ; Digitalisation ; Poland ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The rapid internationalisation of the Polish economy has helped develop competitive export-led manufacturing and services sectors fostering robust growth and productivity performance. However, the benefits of this development have been unequal. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), some regions and social groups have lagged behind. Poland’s integration into world trade has largely focussed on downstream activities of value chains and relatively labour-intensive products that incorporate little domestic value added. The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has put additional pressures on SMEs. A broad range of well-coordinated policies is required to boost SMEs’ internationalisation and their productivity, while easing labour reallocation during the ongoing recovery. Providing stronger support for training programmes in smaller firms and within small firms’ networks would help them upgrade the skills of their workforce, notably for their managers, and ease new technology adoption and internationalisation. Streamlining regulations on start-ups and limiting regulatory and tax barriers to firm expansion would raise firm entry and growth. Strengthening post-insolvency second chance policies for honest entrepreneurs would ease resource reallocation and the adaptation of SMEs to an uncertain and rapidly changing international environment. Improving transport and digital infrastructure would lower trade costs and raise productivity. Ensuring that innovation policies adapt to smaller firms would boost their innovativeness and ease their integration in national and international value chains.
    DOI: 10.1787/2e3b6edd-en
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    What policies for greening the crisis response and economic recovery? : lessons learned from past green stimulus measures and implications for the COVID-19 crisis (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD environment working papers no. 164
    Keywords: Stimulus package ; environmental policy ; policy evaluation ; policy design ; green growth ; Environment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper evaluates green stimulus packages that were introduced in response to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-08 and draws lessons relevant for greening the recovery from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. The paper underscores the importance of building in policy evaluation mechanisms into green stimulus measures. It also provides evidence that the implementation of sufficiently large, timely and properly designed green stimulus measures can generate economic growth, create jobs and bring about environmental benefits. However, there are also trade-offs between competing economic, environmental and social policy objectives, which underscores the importance of proper policy design.
    DOI: 10.1787/c50f186f-en
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  • 60
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    State-owned firms behind China’s corporate debt (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1536
    Keywords: Öffentliches Unternehmen ; Verbindlichkeiten ; China ; Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While China’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio is not particularly high, its non-financial corporate debt relative to GDP is higher than in other major economies. State-owned enterprises account for over three quarters of that debt with a size exceeding GDP. This paper provides insights into the size of debt, leverage and debt service burden by various non-financial SOE groupings including by size, extent of state ownership, level of the owner, broad and detailed sector and region. Although the debt stock of local SOEs increased the fastest, firms under government agencies leveraged up more quickly and their debt service burden also grew most rapidly. SOEs in services industries increased their debt fastest, in particular in social services, transportation, real estate and construction. In turn, warehousing and real estate firms have the highest leverage. Firms in the three provinces of Xinjiang, Shanxi and Qinghai rank among the top five in all the three indicators of debt to revenues, leverage and debt service burden. Large SOEs owe most debt and leveraged up, while small and medium-size ones reduced their leverage. The surge in the debt service burden of small SOEs coincided with an increase in state assets in this group of firms. Sector-wise, state assets increased most in competitive industries. Empirical analysis shows that higher leverage and labour productivity are more conducive to a surge in SOE debt. Such surges appear to be triggered by falling interest costs, pointing to the role for easy monetary conditions in the rapid SOE debt accumulation. Recent corporate governance reforms of SOEs will likely act as disciplining device on SOE borrowing.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/7c66570e-en
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    Job displacement in Australia : evidence from the HILDA survey (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1540
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Personalabbau ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Australia has a dynamic labour market with high job turnover. According to the HILDA Survey data, about one-fifth of all employees separate from their job every year, and about one fifth of those are displaced workers - laid off for economic reasons. Using multivariate probit regression we find that men, older workers and workers with less than secondary education tend to be displaced more often. In certain industries, such as construction and manufacturing, the incidence of displacement has been higher over the last fifteen years. Workers with lower tenure and casual employees also face a higher probability of displacement. However, a very high proportion - close to 80% percent - of displaced workers find a new job within two years. Among certain groups of workers, the share finding new employment is significantly lower: women, older workers, and less educated workers, workers who had a casual job and part-time workers. However, not all groups search for a job after being displaced. We find evidence that women, older workers and workers in low-skilled occupations are quite likely to exit the labour force following displacement.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/eccc0b28-en
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  • 62
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    The potential economic impact of Brexit on Denmark (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1544
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Branchenentwicklung ; Brexit ; EU-Mitgliedschaft ; EU-Staaten ; CGE-Modell ; Dänemark ; METRO trade model ; Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in Denmark of the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final Brexit deal between the EU and the UK, this paper assumes a worst case outcome where trade relations are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides something close to an upper bound estimate of the potential negative economic impact. Any trade agreement that would result in a closer relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU than WTO rules reduces the negative impact. Under the worst case illustrative scenario assumed in this paper, Danish exports to the UK fall by 17%, total exports and GDP decline by 1.3% in the medium term. This effect is from the trade channel absent any change in foreign direct investment (FDI) or productivity. The fall in exports is concentrated in the Danish agri-food and machinery and equipment sectors, which account for half of the export reduction. Exports to the UK of agri-food and machinery and equipment fall by 24% and 17% respectively. Smaller manufacturing sectors such as wood and leather products, metals and textiles see falls of over 20% in their exports to the UK. The chemicals sector, which includes pharmaceuticals, comprises 9.5% of Danish exports to the UK and would experience an 18% reduction in its exports to the UK. Seven Danish sectors experience production declines of over 2.5% in the scenario. The largest decline is in the meat products sectors (7%), metals (3%), material manufacturing (2.3%) and other agri-food sectors (2.2%). These sectors would also see the largest declines in labour demand.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/41a95fb3-en
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  • 63
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    Adapting business framework conditions to deal with disruptive technologies in Denmark (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1545
    Keywords: Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Danish firms are close to the technological frontier compared to other OECD countries, making the introduction of new – potentially disruptive – technologies key to boost productivity growth. Despite a high level of digitalisation and good framework conditions, aggregate productivity growth in Denmark has been only average compared to other advanced OECD countries and lags behind in less knowledge-intensive service industries. Policy needs to embrace innovative technologies by leaning against attempts to discourage or exclude them and by tackling unintended or outmoded obstacles in legislation and regulation. Analysis based on Danish firm-level data suggests that digital adoption through investment in ICT capital increases firm productivity and contributes to business dynamics and firm growth. Improving economic incentives for such investment as well as facilitating adoption of new business models require a shift of taxation away from capital and labour income. Ensuring supply of the right skills and maintaining effective upskilling will help workers cope with disruptive changes and ensure that economic growth benefits all.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/f7a1fe23-en
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  • 64
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    Income, wealth and earnings inequality in Australia : evidence from the HILDA survey (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1538
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Soziale Mobilität ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses income, wealth and earnings inequality in Australia, using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey as the primary source of data. Income inequality in Australia has risen in the last two decades, but most of the rise occurred prior to the global financial crisis. HILDA data nevertheless show evidence of slower income growth in the middle of the income distribution compared with the top and the bottom. While Australia has experienced a rising inequality in wages – mostly through rapid earnings increases among top earners - this has been offset by increased participation and longer hours worked at the bottom of the distribution. According to HILDA data, relative pay across different levels of education groups has not recorded large shifts over the last 15 years. At the same time, we find evidence for job polarisation; notably, the share of high skilled jobs versus middle skilled jobs has increased. With respect to concerns about the casualisation of the labour force and less stable nature of jobs amid technological change and globalisation, the incidence of casual employment – where workers receive no paid sick leave or holiday leave - in Australia has been reported to have risen since the 1980s, especially for females. According to HILDA data however, the incidence of casual employment has fallen since early 2000s. Furthermore, we find no evidence that contract duration has shortened over time.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/cab6789d-en
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  • 65
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    Labour share developments over the past two decades : the role of public policies (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1541
    Keywords: 1995 - 2011 ; Lohnquote ; Politik ; Kausalanalyse ; Ökonometrie ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Labour share developments over the past two decades have differed widely across OECD countries, with about half of them experiencing significant declines. This paper analyses the role of public policies in shaping labour share developments across countries. The results suggest that pro-competition product market reforms raise the labour share by reducing producer rents. Labour market reforms that strengthen the bargaining position of workers, such as tightening employment protection or raising minimum wages, may raise wages in the short term but risk triggering the substitution of capital for labour in the medium term. On average, across countries, such reforms are estimated to reduce the labour share. By contrast, promoting the re-employment of workers who lose their jobs through active labour market policies unambiguously raises the labour share.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b21e518b-en
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  • 66
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    Going national : implementing the OECD jobs strategy (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1546
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides guidance for developing country-specific policy recommendations from the broad policy principles of the new OECD Jobs Strategy. To this end, it identifies countries’ main policy challenges and develops broad policy packages to address them. It highlights the importance of considering countries' initial conditions – in terms of the state of the business cycle, fiscal and administrative capacity, past reforms, preferences and demography – for tailoring policy recommendations to country specific challenges, capabilities and needs. It also contains a checklist with key questions for each of the broad dimensions of labour market performance that should be considered when developing country-specific recommendations.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b598f530-en
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  • 67
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    Productivity growth and finance : the role of intangible assets : a sector level analysis (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1547
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Investment in intangible assets has become an increasingly important driver of productivity growth in OECD countries. Facing stronger informational asymmetries and harder to value collateral, intangible investment is subject to more severe financial constraints and relies more on internal rather than external capital. To test the hypothesis that the availability of finance, and financial development in particular, is more important for productivity growth in sectors that are intensive in intangible assets, an empirical analysis is carried over a panel of 32 countries and 30 industries, from 1990 to 2014. Overall, results confirm that the impact of financial development on labour productivity is not uniform across sectors. It varies based on country-specific institutional settings and sector-specific characteristics such as the intangible asset intensity, financial structure and external financial dependence. Policies and institutional settings may relax financial constraints by: i) altering the overall composition of finance; ii) encouraging competition and iii) strengthening the legal environment in which businesses operate.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e26cae57-en
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  • 68
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    Gig economy platforms : boon or bane? (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1550
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The rapid emergence of gig economy platforms that use digital technologies to intermediate labour on a per-task basis has triggered an intense policy debate about the economic and social implications. This paper takes stock of the emerging evidence. The results suggest that gig economy platforms’ size remains modest (1-3 per cent of overall employment). Their growth has been most pronounced in a small number of services industries with high shares of own-account workers, suggesting that thus far they have been a substitute for traditional self-employment rather than dependent employment. New evidence provided in this paper is consistent with positive effects of platform growth on overall employment and small negative or insignificant effects on dependent employment and wages. While most empirical studies suggest that platforms are more efficient in matching workers to clients, reductions in barriers to work could offset such productivity-enhancing effects by creating employment opportunities for low-productivity workers. Fully reaping the potential benefits from gig economy platforms while protecting workers and consumers requires adapting existing policy settings in product and labour markets and applying them to traditional businesses and platforms on an equal footing.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/fdb0570b-en
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  • 69
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    Enhancing the social integration of Roma in Slovak Republic (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1551
    Keywords: Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Slovak Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Roma account for almost one-tenth of the population in the Slovak Republic. They live mostly excluded from the general population in concentrated settlements, separated neighbourhoods or ghettos. The majority live in poverty and face social exclusion in almost all aspects of everyday life. Only a small share of Roma work, and a majority suffer from long spells of unemployment, their educational attainment is low, and a large number are illiterate. Social exclusion is further exacerbated by rising general animosity and mistrust between Roma and non-Roma groups. This calls for immediate policy action. The government should ensure easy access to all public services and provide additional support for the disadvantaged Roma communities. Individual policies should be effectively coordinated, because the problems that the Roma are facing are interconnected. A necessary precondition for successful Roma integration is the support of the general population. Policy interventions towards Roma integration should be accompanied by measures to eliminate the prejudices among parts of the majority population against their fellow citizens.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/197eb309-en
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  • 70
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    Increasing the benefits of Slovakia's integration in global value chains (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1552
    Keywords: Economics ; Slovak Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Heavy involvement in international trade and global value chains has been an effective way for promoting Slovakia's economic and social catch-up. Large foreign direct investment inflows have helped develop a competitive export-led manufacturing industry, with a strong specialisation in the automotive and electronics sectors, fostering robust growth and productivity performance with good fiscal and external balance results. However, the benefits of this development strategy have diminished since the 2008-09 crisis and the subsequent slowdown in world trade growth. Moreover, over the years Slovakia’s integration into world trade has remained for a large part based on downstream activities of value chains that incorporate little domestic value added, such as the assembly of imported intermediate goods, and further expansion of this growth model is hindered by employers’ increasing difficulties in finding skilled labour. There is a need to help local firms to better benefit from foreign companies’ know-how, further prepare the workforce for the increasing digitalisation and automation of most industries, promote the diversification of the economy and, in particular, strengthen the role of the services sector. This assessment, which is derived from the first part of this chapter, is followed by a discussion of the changes required to better leverage Slovakia’s experience with global value chains. All in all, a broad range of well-coordinated policies is called for. This entails better adapting the skills of the workforce to the changing needs of the labour market, enhancing the business environment, improving transport infrastructure and stimulating firms’ innovation capacity. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Slovak Republic (http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/slovak-republic-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/877b7b28-en
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  • 71
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    Policy drivers of human capital in the OECD's quantification of structural reforms (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1576
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a new measure of human capital that works much better in explaining productivity in OECD countries compared to earlier measures of human capital to investigate the educational policy drivers of human capital. A novel methodology is utilised by interacting educational policies, for which time series coverage is very poor, with time-varying core drivers of human capital such as public spending on education. In such a framework, policy effects can only be assessed indirectly as they amplify or attenuate the effect of education spending on human capital. The results suggest that higher attendance at pre-primary education, greater autonomy of schools and universities, a lower student-to-teacher ratio, higher age of first tracking in secondary education and lower barriers to funding to students in tertiary education all tend to boost human capital through amplifying the positive effects of greater public spending on education. Benefits from pre-primary education are particularly high for countries with an above-average share of disadvantaged students. School autonomy yields high benefits especially in countries where schools are subject to external accountability.
    DOI: 10.1787/b8fe3b7b-en
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  • 72
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    Yours inclusively? : income mobility in Ireland, 10 years of tax record microdata (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1578
    Keywords: Economics ; Ireland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While policymakers are rightly concerned about evidence of rising income concentration at the top, it is often wrongly assumed that the same rich individuals stay rich. In reality, the membership of this group are in a state of constant flux. This new study, based on more than 20 million tax records over 10 years, examines the highest income earners in Ireland but also who moves up and down the income ladder over time. While income inequality has increased in most OECD countries, in Ireland it has been broadly stable for most of the income distribution. The top 10% of income earners receive 1/3 of total income and pay around 2/3 of all income tax. Unlike other OECD countries, the top 1% has not expanded its gross income share, partly due to long range downward mobility during the recession for those with the highest incomes. Moreover, more progressive taxation has also reduced the top 1 per cent’s share of disposable income. This paper finds that income inequality increases with age and differs dramatically across economic sectors – the difference between the top 1% and the median is greatest in the professional, financial and health sectors. In the professional sector for example, the top 1% threshold is 12 times the median compared to 3 times in the public sector. The share of employment in these sectors has grown contributing to greater income inequality but also higher upward income mobility. Indeed, the analysis in the paper shows upward income mobility is higher for those working in finance, professional and technical occupations and among the young, those living in Dublin, and those changing jobs. Finally, there is also evidence that economic mobility has declined among median income classes over the past 10 years in Ireland – relatively fewer workers are now moving up or down the income ladder than before.
    DOI: 10.1787/f3df1668-en
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  • 73
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    Tax and benefit reforms to support employment and inclusiveness and address poverty in Italy (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1580
    Keywords: Economics ; Italy ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses Italy’s 2019 tax and benefit reforms, analyses hypothetical reforms and proposes a reform package that balances goals of reducing poverty, encouraging employment and fiscal sustainability. Using the OECD’s Tax-Benefit and the EUROMOD microsimulation models, it shows that the new guaranteed minimum income scheme introduced in 2019 significantly strengthens Italy’s low income protection system but can also financially discourage recipients from working. The debated flattening of personal income tax rates would do little to improve work incentives, but would drastically cut tax revenues and increase inequality, by reducing the progressivity of the personal tax system. A proposed reform package that maintains progressive personal income tax rates, gradually withdraws low-income support and provides additional benefits for low-wage earners would make inroads into poverty and inequality while encouraging formal work. This paper accompanies and extends the results of the in-depth chapter of the OECD 2019 Economic Survey of Italy (2019[1]) on social and regional disparities.
    DOI: 10.1787/2a2a5978-en
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  • 74
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    What drives the performance of Swedish lower secondary schools? (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1586
    Keywords: Education ; Economics ; Sweden ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents the econometric analysis of lower secondary school performance carried out for the chapter on education of the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Sweden. The dataset covers most Swedish schools providing education for 9th graders. Student socio-economic background has a considerable impact on academic results. Policy inputs are also correlated with results, notably in schools with pupils from weaker socio-economic backgrounds, but teacher qualifications and spending per student are endogenous. For-profit private schools underperform compared to non-profit and public schools, albeit with strong heterogeneity between schools. The introduction of an indicator of competition, based on the density of schools, suggests that intensified school competition lowers results in schools with a high share of pupils from weaker socio-economic backgrounds. Schools, and especially those achieving weaker results, have scope to raise their performance by improving their adaptation to student needs. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Sweden http://www.oecd.org/economy/sweden-economic-snapshot/
    DOI: 10.1787/ca7145f3-en
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  • 75
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    Housing, wealth accumulation and wealth distribution : evidence and stylized facts (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1588
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper produces new evidence and stylised facts on housing, wealth accumulation and wealth distribution, relying on an in-depth analysis of micro-based data on household wealth across OECD countries. The analysis addresses several questions: i) How is homeownership and housing tenure distributed across the population along various socio-economic characteristics such as income, wealth and age? What is the weight of housing in households’ balance sheets and how does this vary across socio-economic groups? ii) What is the incidence of mortgage debt across households and how does this vary across socio-economic groups? What is the impact of mortgage debt on access to homeownership and wealth accumulation, and on debt overburden and financial risks among vulnerable groups? iii) Is housing a vehicle for wealth accumulation? Can it be a barrier to residential mobility? iv) Is there a link between homeownership and wealth inequality? Between inequality in housing wealth and in total wealth? A key policy issue addressed in this paper is whether and how housing-related policies affect wealth distribution. Another important issue is whether housing-related policies raise potential trade-offs between equity, or inequality reduction, and other policy objectives such as employment and productivity growth as well as macroeconomic resilience. Informed by the stylised facts and existing evidence, this paper discusses preliminary policy implications of housing reform to promote inclusiveness and social mobility, to enhance efficiency in the allocation of labour and capital and to strengthen macroeconomic resilience.
    DOI: 10.1787/86954c10-en
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  • 76
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    Upgrading business investment in Turkey (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1532
    Keywords: Kapitalstock ; Auslandsinvestition ; Investitionsentscheidung ; Forschung ; Digitalisierung ; Wirtschaftsdaten ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Starting from a low level in early 2000s, Turkey’s total capital stock has since expanded rapidly, but the composition and quality of investment raises questions. This study focuses on business investment, as the main driver of physical and knowledge-based capital formation and, hence, of potential output and the material foundations of well-being. Micro data allow to distinguish four types of firms: small businesses with a high rate of informality, medium-sized family firms, large formal corporations, and skilled start-ups. The relative importance of the challenges facing these different types of firms varies, notably with respect to skill shortcomings, regulatory burdens, labour costs, access to bank lending, over-leveraging and scarce equity capital. Improving the current business environment and overcoming the fragmentation of the business sector will be crucial to upgrade the quality of business investment and to enhance the allocative efficiency of capital formation. This calls for promoting formality, best management practices, the build-up of equity capital, access to long-term bank financing and other market-based financing that can complement traditional bank lending; and a faster and more inclusive transition to the digital economy.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/537fc88b-en
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  • 77
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    Raising more public revenue in Indonesia in a growth- and equity-friendly way (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1534
    Keywords: Steuersystem ; Steuermoral ; Ökosteuer ; Öffentliche Einnahmen ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Indonesia’s government needs more revenue to fund spending that can boost GDP growth, raise well-being and reduce poverty. The tax-to-GDP ratio is low relative to other emerging market economies. The difficulty is to raise revenues without denting growth or worsening inequality. Successive reforms have modernised the tax administration and increased the number of taxpayers. Nonetheless, raising compliance is an ongoing challenge and investing in the tax administration rightly remains a government priority. There is also scope to improve the design of various taxes. Broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes would raise more revenue and reduce distortions. Expanding property taxation, if appropriately implemented, could provide additional funds for local governments. Taxes can also be used more extensively to discourage activities and behaviours with negative health and environmental externalities. Strengthening property rights and fighting illegal extraction would increase revenues from Indonesia’s natural resource wealth. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-indonesia.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/a487771f-en
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  • 78
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    Using probit models of downturn risk to calibrate GDP fan charts for New Zealand (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1543
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Probit-Modell ; Neuseeland ; Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the historical forecast track record. To characterise this risk, recent OECD work constructed fan charts parameterised on historical forecast errors and the probability of a future downturn estimated from a probit model comprising a range of potential macroeconomic and financial early warning indicators. As the probability of a downturn increases the associated fan chart is wider, reflecting increased uncertainty, and more skewed to the downside, reflecting greater downside risks. This paper applies this methodology to New Zealand; although one important difference compared to other OECD economies is that the time span of macroeconomic data without major structural change is significantly shorter. Forecast errors for GDP by the OECD, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and New Zealand Treasury all appear to be non-normally distributed. Fan charts for GDP forecasts from the mid-year 2018 OECD Economic Outlook are symmetric due to the low probability of a downturn. Fan charts estimated for the period preceding the global financial crisis using currently-available data have a downwards skew. However, those estimated using data only available in the lead up to the crisis have many insignificant coefficients, likely due to the structural changes that have occurred in the New Zealand economy since the 1980s.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/aa823471-en
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  • 79
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    Like it or not? : the impact of online platforms on the productivity of incumbent service providers (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1548
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a novel empirical approach to assess if the development of online platforms affects the productivity of service firms. We build a proxy measure of platform use across four industries (hotels, restaurants, taxis and retail trade) and ten OECD countries using internet search data from Google Trends, which we link to firm-level data on productivity in these industries. We find that platform development supports the productivity of the average incumbent service firm and also stimulates labour reallocation towards more productive firms in these industries. This may notably reflect that platforms’ user review and rating systems reduce information asymmetries between consumers and service providers, enhancing competition between providers. The effects depend on platform type. “Aggregator” platforms that connect incumbent service providers to consumers tend to push up the productivity of incumbents, while more disruptive platforms that enable new types of providers to compete with them (e.g. home sharing, ride hailing) have on average no significant effect on it. Consistent with this, we find that different platform types affect differently the profits, mark-ups, employment and wages of incumbent service firms. Finally, the productivity gains from platforms are lower when a platform is persistently dominant on its market, suggesting that the contestability of platform markets should be promoted.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/080a17ce-en
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  • 80
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    Housing markets and macroeconomic risks (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1555
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing markets are large and highly volatile: they can thus create large macroeconomic risks. The current paper provides a bird’s eye view of where the housing markets of major OECD economies currently stand. It then uses the results of recently developed models to provide indications of where macroeconomic risks exist. Finally, the paper draws on recent empirical analyses to suggest how economic policies can enhance economic resilience by reducing housing-related risks through macroprudential measures and housing market reforms (such as changes in rent regulation, taxation and land use policies).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/737133d8-en
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  • 81
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    Public policy reforms to further improve Portuguese export performance (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1556
    Keywords: Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Portugal’s export performance over the past decade has been impressive, helping to reduce external imbalances. This partly owed to a sequence of structural reforms that benefited the productivity of the export sector and led to an increase in its size. Nonetheless, exports as a share of GDP and the stock of foreign direct investment remain below that of other comparable small European economies. Further shifting the orientation of the economy to the external sector is vital for Portugal given the strong link between trade openness and GDP per capita. To do this, policymakers must ensure that policy settings incentivise exporting firms to expand and improve their competitiveness, both through lower price and improved quality. For example, regulatory barriers that reduce competition in professional services should be lowered to improve the cost and quality of intermediate inputs. Increasing the efficiency of domestic infrastructure is also key, especially through competition-enhancing reforms to the port sector. To further differentiate and improve Portuguese export products, skills in the business sector need to be enhanced through better-targeted lifelong learning opportunities. At the same time, there is a need to focus innovation policies on raising the participation of small and medium enterprises in innovative activities.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/4d416a6b-en
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  • 82
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    Realising regional potentials through better market integration in China (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1557
    Keywords: Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: China’s regions have been experiencing impressive growth over the past decades, but their potentials could be better exploited by creating a single product and labour market. Local protectionism increases transaction costs and hinders competition, thereby taking a toll on productivity. Administrative monopolies have long thrived and are hard to dismantle. Restrictions on the hukou and the fragmented pension system limit labour mobility. Local regulations aim at, among other things, securing the collection of local taxes, without which cities could not afford to offer the same public services to migrants as to urbanites. Hence, dismantling local regulations and creating a single product and labour market needs to go hand-in-hand with the reform of inter-governmental finances. Recent measures on both the product and labour market front appear to aim at making up for the slow progress over the past decade or so. There are signs that these efforts are helping China’s regions at various levels to converge toward each other. Disparities are shrinking faster across provinces, compared to within provinces. Integration of product and labour markets will boost productivity over the medium-to long term by reducing transaction costs, but could potentially widen regional disparities, which are already relatively high. This will necessitate enhanced transfers and re-centralisation of the financing of spending in some key categories such as education and health. Policies to help catching up of laggard regions by better connectivity through infrastructure investment are bearing fruit, but such investments should be subject to rigorous cost-benefit criteria to enhance capital allocation efficiency and should take into account externalities. Notwithstanding significant disparities along multiple dimensions across provinces, inequalities, be it in terms of income, wealth or education, are actually most striking along the rural-urban dimension. The rural revitalisation strategy, a novel element of the 19th Party Congress outcomes, is expected to address this issue. The other recent strategy of nurturing the formation of city groups will also likely benefit rural areas in-between those cities. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of China (http://www.oecd.org/economy/china-economic-snapshot/).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e5cbbaac-en
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  • 83
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    Who pays the price of folly? : the business cycle and income and wealth mobility in Spain (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1561
    Keywords: Economics ; Spain ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Spain has experienced a dramatic business cycle, starting with a large construction based boom followed by a long recession, resulting in a substantial rise in unemployment, and income and wealth inequality. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Survey of Household Finances over the period 2002 to 2014 to examine the distributions of income and wealth in Spain, as well as the mobility of households within those distributions. Results show an increase in the concentration of both income and wealth following the sharp decline in house prices that occurred since 2008, with house price fluctuations affecting more negatively the young than the old. Furthermore, differences in average income and wealth by education, gender and home ownership status were accentuated during the crisis, with lower and middle group incomes falling on average and top group incomes rising. In addition, higher levels of mobility within the middle of the household wealth distribution are observed than at either the top or bottom, although mobility at the extremes of the distribution increased after 2008. Finally, a number of characteristics of households, including age, property ownership, being employed on a permanent contract and good health, are found to be positively associated with wealth accumulation over time, while having a mortgage is negatively related. Overall, the paper finds it is the young and those with low income, wealth and education, bad health, temporary contracts and a mortgage that became relatively worse off in Spain’s early 21st century boom and bust cycle. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Spain (http://www.oecd.org/economy/spain-economic-snapshot)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/880f797c-en
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  • 84
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    Improving well-being through better housing policy in New Zealand (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1565
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: New Zealand’s housing supply has not kept pace with rising demand, including from net immigration. Affordability has worsened, particularly for low-income renters. Government action is underway to allow new housing through initiatives such as the Urban Growth Agenda, KiwiBuild and the Housing and Urban Development Authority, but further steps are needed to improve well-being. Clear overarching principles for sustainable urban development and rationalisation of strict regulatory containment policies would allow the planning system to better respond to demand for land. Incentives for local governments to accommodate growth could be increased by giving them access to additional revenue linked to local development. More user charging and targeted rates would also help to fund infrastructure required to service new housing. Government delivery of affordable housing through KiwiBuild should be re-focused towards enabling the supply of land to developers, supporting development of affordable rental housing and further expanding social housing in areas facing shortages.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b82d856b-en
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  • 85
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    Enhancing judicial efficiency to foster economic activity in Portugal (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1567
    Keywords: Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A well-functioning justice system is indispensable to business activity and to a society as a whole. Judicial efficiency measured by trial length, one of the essential factors in the effectiveness of the justice system, ensures contract enforcement, which is the basis of market transactions. Judicial efficiency is closely associated with accessibility to judicial services and the certainty of judicial decisions, raising people’s confidence. Portugal has undertaken numerous judicial reforms in the past, to the extent that it is difficult to disentangle and evaluate fully the effects of each reform. Overall, judicial efficiency remains weak, as reflected in the average trial length and bottlenecks in a number of courts. The data collection system, significantly developed as part of the reforms, can be more fully utilised for allocating court resources. The autonomy of the judicial council and court presidents can also be strengthened so that they can effectively manage resources. Individual judges can be better incentivised through performance-oriented evaluation. Competition in the legal profession sector can be enhanced while increasing the transparency of legal services. Also, alternative dispute resolution mechanisms can be developed further, meeting different needs for judicial services, in particular those on insolvency, while alleviating court congestion. Finally, building on past and ongoing reform efforts, the judicial system should continue to improve the capacity to undertake forensic investigations of economic and financial crimes. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (http://www.oecd.org/economy/portugal-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e8d8f103-en
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  • 86
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    The effect of public sector efficiency on firm-level productivity growth : the Italian case (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1573
    Keywords: Economics ; Italy ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effect of public administration efficiency on firm-level productivity. To this purpose, we combine newly available data from Italy on public administration efficiency of subnational governments with geo-localised firm-level data for the years 2004-2014. Italy provides a relevant setting to examine the relationship between public administration efficiency and firm productivity because of large and persistent spatial disparities in economic performance and local administrative capacity. The identification strategy exploits discontinuities that occur in local public-administration efficiency across provincial borders. The results suggest that local public administration efficiency has a large effect on firms’ productivity growth. Increasing local public administration efficiency from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile would raise the firm-level labour productivity in Italy by 2.4 percentage points.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/6d20b56d-en
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  • 87
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    Negative interest rates in the euro area : does it hurt banks? (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1574
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been in place in the euro area since June 2014. While the NIRP can provide additional monetary accommodation in the situation where the neutral rate of interest is most likely negative, there are also unintended consequences for banks’ profitability and potential financial stability risks associated with this policy. The paper assesses the effect of the NIRP on the net interest rate margins of the euro area banks using quarterly consolidated bank level data for some 50 banking groups directly supervised by the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Since our data set extends to 2018, it allows us to examine the period of negative short-term interest rates separately from the period of low, but positive policy rates. The econometric results confirm the effect of the interest rate level on bank profitability and, in some specifications, also suggest an additional negative effect on bank profitability in the period of negative euro area short-term interest rates. This additional effect of the NIRP is the strongest when looking at the disaggregated components of net interest income, i.e. interest income and interest expense. However, the effects are not particularly robust across various profitability measures and tend to disappear when conditioning on macroeconomic variables, such as expected real GDP growth and inflation expectations. Therefore, in line with other existing studies, we find weak evidence of possible negative effects on bank profitability from keeping rates low for an extended period of time. Statistical analysis of the bank-level data also points to an ongoing compression of non-interest income, in particular for the best performing banks, and a slow recovery in return on total assets among all banks over the analysed period. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Euro Area (https://www.oecd.org/economy/euro-area-and-european-union-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/d3227540-en
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  • 88
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    The economy of well-being : creating opportunities for people’s well-being and economic growth (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2019, 2
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: As well-being has matured as a statistical and measurement agenda, it has become increasingly relevant as a “compass” for policy, with a growing number of countries using well-being metrics to guide decision-making and inform budgetary processes. One remaining challenge has consisted in providing policy-makers with a better understanding of the linkages between the drivers of well-being and economic growth. This paper develops the concept of an “Economy of Well-being” as a basis for highlighting these linkages and showing how policy can most effectively leverage them. The paper defines an economy of well-being around the idea of a “virtuous circle” in which individual well-being and long-term economic growth are mutually reinforcing. It also explores the characteristics of an economy of well-being and the conditions under which it can be sustained. Secondly, based on a survey of existing empirical evidence, the paper contributes to outline how economies of well-being can be built. It provides analysis of several important channels through which economic growth and well-being support and reinforce one another, focusing on the multidimensional impact of policies in four areas that research has shown to be important for well-being: Education and Skills; Health; Social Protection and Redistribution; and Gender Equality.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/498e9bc7-en
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  • 89
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    Fostering strong and relevant skills in Iceland (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1582
    Keywords: Economics ; Iceland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Strong and relevant skills are vital for helping Iceland to adjust to rapidly changing technology and competition in the world economy and safeguard high prosperity and well-being. Many students, especially those with an immigration background, lack solid core skills and competences that weakens the skills-base. Vocational and tertiary education do not always provide skills needed by the labour market. A comprehensive approach is required to strengthen skills, based on systematic assessment and forecasting exercises. This should include measures to improve teaching quality, including through stronger professional development, and ensure its equitable distribution; strengthen the work-based component of vocational training; and ensure that tertiary education provides the right skills. Beyond education, effective re-skilling and up-skilling programmes, including for immigrant workers, and strong work incentives are essential for further skill development and to help make the best use of existing skills. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Iceland http://www.oecd.org/economy/iceland-economic-snapshot/
    DOI: 10.1787/a38cdd39-en
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  • 90
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    A new macroeconomic measure of human capital with strong empirical links to productivity (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1575
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper calculates new measures of human capital. Contrary to the existing literature, they are based on realistic rates of return to education, which are allowed to vary substantially across countries and to some extent over time. The new measures perform well in regression analysis explaining productivity across OECD countries and over time. In OECD samples, coefficient estimates are broadly consistent with the private returns underlying the construction of the new measures of human capital. In a wider sample of countries, most estimates imply additional positive social returns.
    DOI: 10.1787/d12d7305-en
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  • 91
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    How responsive are housing markets in the OECD? : national level estimates (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1589
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The trend rise of house prices in many OECD countries suggests weakness in the adjustment of supply to demand. This paper estimates long-term elasticities of housing supply to prices in OECD countries before exploring their drivers with a focus on policies. It finds a significant association between weaker supply responsiveness and a proxy measure for more restrictive land-use regulation. Besides, tighter rent controls are linked with lower supply elasticities. In turn, weak supply responsiveness implies that house prices rise more following stronger demand. The sensitivity of house prices to household income is also higher in countries that provide larger amounts of tax relief for homeowners.
    DOI: 10.1787/4777e29a-en
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  • 92
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    Digitalisation and productivity : in search of the holy grail : firm-level empirical evidence from EU countries (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1533
    Keywords: Digitalisierung ; Informationstechnik ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Qualifikation ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; European Union ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses how the adoption of a range of digital technologies affects firm productivity. It combines cross-country firm-level data on productivity and industry-level data on digital technology adoption in an empirical framework that accounts for firm heterogeneity. The results provide robust evidence that digital adoption in an industry is associated to productivity gains at the firm level. Effects are relatively stronger in manufacturing and routine-intensive activities. They also tend to be stronger for more productive firms and weaker in presence of skill shortages, which may relate to the complementarities between digital technologies and other forms of capital (e.g. skills, organisation, or intangibles). As a result, digital technologies may have contributed to the growing dispersion in productivity performance across firms. Hence, policies to support digital adoption should go hand in hand with creating the conditions to enable the catch-up of lagging firms, notably by easing access to skills.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5080f4b6-en
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  • 93
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    Benefitting from globalisation and technological change in Australia (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1537
    Keywords: Technischer Fortschritt ; Digitalisierung ; Globalisierung ; Einkommensverteilung ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Aktivierende Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Bildung ; Qualifikation ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Urbanisierung ; Ballungsraum ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Australia has seen large rises in living standards over the last decades across the whole of the income distribution. Technological change and international trade have contributed to this success, but have also brought structural change. Some industries have declined, while others flourished. Furthermore, new technologies and structural change create new skills and new tasks, boosting demand for some jobs, while making others disappear. Although technology and globalisation have not decreased overall employment, certain people, groups, and communities have undergone disruptive change and experienced falling living standards. Some groups face a higher risk of poverty and laid-off workers can have difficulty finding a new job. Well-informed and well-targeted policy is therefore needed to ensure that the benefits of technology and globalisation are widely shared. This paper focuses on policies to ensure that everyone in Australia has the opportunity to benefit from technological change and globalisation. The paper assesses policies relating to three issues: i) labour markets and active labour market policies; ii) education and skills; to ensure adequate skills for accessing good quality jobs; and iii) urban environments, ensuring that Australia's highly urbanised population can adapt to change.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/d36cddc4-en
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  • 94
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    Income poverty in Australia : evidence from the HILDA survey (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1539
    Keywords: Armut ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Erwerbsarmut ; Erwerbsarmut ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses relative income poverty in Australia of individuals aged 15 or more, based on the HILDA Survey data. Australia has above-average poverty rates among OECD countries, but poverty has decreased in the last 15 years. Certain groups are more at risk than others. People living alone and lone parents are at higher risk of poverty. Old people in Australia have a more than 30% chance of living in poverty, which is one of the highest in the OECD. Among those of working age, being employed significantly reduces the risk, while those out of the labour force and the unemployed are at much higher risk of poverty. Nevertheless, there is poverty also among people that work, typically casual workers and part-time workers. People with low education are also at risk. Those living alone and one-parent households face quite a high risk of poverty, even if they are employed. Indigenous Australians are almost twice as likely to be poor than the rest of Australians and they appear significantly poorer than the rest even after controlling for education, age, industry, skill and geographical remoteness, suggesting a range of socio-economic issues, including poor health and discrimination.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/322390bf-en
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  • 95
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    Making the most of tourism in Indonesia to promote sustainable regional development (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1535
    Keywords: Tourismus ; Nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Tourism has boomed in Indonesia in recent years and is already one of the main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Indonesia has rich and diverse natural assets, whose tourism potential remains underutilised. The government has an ambitious target of attracting 20 million tourists by 2019, up from nearly 14 million in 2017. The main destination will continue to be Bali. Using Bali as the preferred development model, the government wants to develop other destinations, particularly through infrastructure programmes to improve connectivity, which is a longstanding challenge for tourism as well as for regional development more generally. Enhancing the tourism-related skills of local populations will provide them with expanded job opportunities. This calls for reforms to vocational education and training. Moreover, recent efforts by the authorities to improve the business environment need to continue, including through helping firms embrace digitalisation. Tourism may be growing too fast in some destinations without adequately taking into account sustainability issues, both for the environment and local communities. Better planning and co-ordination at all levels of government and across relevant policy areas can facilitate more sustainable tourism development. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-indonesia.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/c73325d9-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 96
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    Labour supply of older people in advanced economies : the impact of changes to statutory retirement ages (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1554
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b9f8d292-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 97
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    Educational attainment, age and the consequences of job loss : empirical evidence from Germany (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1558
    Keywords: Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Education is a crucial determinant of labour market success. We investigate whether education is an appropriate means to cushion the negative consequences of job loss and study the role of age as a second major labour market factor. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data for the years 2000 to 2016, we analyse unemployment durations and unemployment-induced wage penalties for prime-age men. We show that individuals without formal qualifications face a significantly lower probability of finding a new job than workers with some kind of formal qualification, and hence face a higher risk of long-term unemployment. Furthermore, the duration of unemployment prior to finding a new job rises with age. This pattern is particularly pronounced for individuals with upper secondary education or no formal qualifications. Moreover, we find a negative relationship between unemployment and an individual’s subsequent wage. This depressing impact is significant only for unqualified workers and workers with intermediate vocational education. Yet, differences between educational groups are not statistically significant. Across all education groups, unemployment depresses subsequent wages more strongly at a higher age. However, the results suggest that this is due to longer unemployment spells of older workers, not age per se.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/6197d3cc-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 98
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    The OECD potential output estimation methodology (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1563
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/4357c723-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 99
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    Online Resource
    Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1570
    Keywords: Economics ; Estonia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/estonia-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5741a5f3-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fostering Argentina's integration into the world economy (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1572
    Keywords: Economics ; Argentina ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ever since the early 20th century, Argentina has failed to fully reap the benefits that integrating into the world economy can offer. With exports and imports only accounting for less than 30% of GDP, Argentina is significantly less integrated into the world economy than other emerging market economies. This reflects several decades of inward oriented policies including a strategy of industrialisation through import substitution. Trading little, Argentina has also remained on the side-lines of global value chains, all of which represents significant lost opportunities for growth and well-being. This paper, based on a chapter in the 2019 Economic Survey of Argentina, analyses the potential benefits and distributional effects of a stronger integration into the global economy. It also discusses policy options for opening up and for accompanying policies to ease the transition towards a more open economy. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Argentina http://www.oecd.org/economy/argentina-economic-snapshot/
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/7ed95b2b-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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