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  • 1
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    Online Resource
    The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands (2018)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1518
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Branchenentwicklung ; Brexit ; EU-Mitgliedschaft ; EU-Staaten ; CGE-Modell ; Niederlande ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in the Netherlands. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement between the negotiating parties, the choice has been made to assume a worst case outcome where trade relations between the United Kingdom and EU are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides an upper bound estimate of the potential negative economic impact stemming from disruptions in trade. Any final trade agreement that would result in closer relationships between the United Kingdom and the EU could reduce this negative impact. Simulations using the METRO model suggest that from an increase in tariff and non-tariff measures (NTM’s) Dutch exports to the UK would fall by 17% and GDP declines by 0.7% in the medium term compared to baseline. This effect is from the trade channel absent any change in foreign direct investment (FDI) or productivity. The Dutch agri-food sector would experience a 22% fall in its UK exports. There are some sectors that gain from the export opportunities provided by Brexit, notably financial services and transport.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/20cb5ddc-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
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    Challenges and opportunities of India's enhanced participation in the global economy (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1597
    Keywords: Economics ; India ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: India is becoming a key player in the global economy. It performs well in exporting information and technology services, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products. India’s large diaspora is well integrated abroad, helping to develop new export markets and facilitate the transfer of technology and know-how. India could perform better in some domains. These include labour-intensive manufacturing exports and foreign direct investment. Better performance in these areas would boost job creation and thus make growth more inclusive. It would require improving further infrastructure, in particular transport and energy provision, modernising product market regulations, developing skills, and reconsidering barriers to trade and investment. OECD simulations suggest that India would be a major beneficiary were barriers to trade and investment be reduced multilaterally. In the absence of a multilateral agreement, the economy would also gain from a unilateral liberalisation of trade and investment. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of India http://www.oecd.org/economy/india-economic-snapshot/
    DOI: 10.1787/a6facd16-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
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    The potential macroeconomic and sectoral consequences of Brexit on Ireland (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1508
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Branchenentwicklung ; Brexit ; EU-Mitgliedschaft ; EU-Staaten ; CGE-Modell ; Irland ; Economics ; Ireland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the potential effects on exports, imports, production, factor demand and GDP in Ireland of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), focusing on trade and FDI channels. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement between the negotiating parties, the choice has been made to assume a worst-case outcome where trade relations between the United Kingdom and EU are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides something close to an upper bound estimate of the negative economic impact taking into account the potential for some firms to relocate to Ireland. Any final trade agreement that would result in closer relationships between the United Kingdom and the EU could reduce this negative impact. The simulations use two large-scale models: a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO). These models are used to quantify, both at the macroeconomic and the sectoral level, two key channels through which Ireland would be affected: trade and foreign direct investment. The simulation results highlight that the negative effect on trade could result in Ireland's GDP falling by 1½ per cent in the medium-term and around 2½ per cent in the long-term. The impacts are highly heterogeneous across sectors. Agriculture, food, and some smaller manufacturing sectors experience the largest declines in total gross exports at over 15%. By contrast, financial services exports increase slightly. The modelling suggests that any positive offsetting impact to the trade shock from increased inward FDI to Ireland is likely to be modest.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/e930967b-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 4
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    The trade impact of the UK’s exit from the EU single market (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1631
    Keywords: Brexit ; free-trade agreement ; general-equilibrium model ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the sectoral trade impact in the United Kingdom and in EU countries of the UK’s exit from the Single Market, using the OECD general-equilibrium METRO model. A comprehensive free-trade agreement could lead to a fall by about 6.1% of UK exports and 7.8% of UK imports in the medium term compared to a situation where the United Kingdom would stay in the Single Market. Cost would come essentially from rising technical barriers and sanitary and phytosanitory measures on goods and rising trade costs on services. Rules of origin and border transition costs would have a small effect. Output losses in the European Union (0.4-0.5%) are expected to be less pronounced, but would vary markedly across individual countries. Ireland would experience the largest losses. Losses would also vary across sectors. Accounting for the regulatory impact of ending free movement of people for EU nationals on services trade is expected to bring some additional costs to the services economy. Those losses could be partly compensated by growth-enhancing changes to UK regulations, but only to a limited extent.
    DOI: 10.1787/682c2995-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 5
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    Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19 (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1637
    Keywords: trade ; global value chains ; shocks ; diversification ; relocalisation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness.
    DOI: 10.1787/3e4b7ecf-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 6
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    Trade impacts of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1698
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper assesses the medium term impact of the United Kingdom leaving the EU Single Market under the terms of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) reached at the end of 2020 using the OECD METRO CGE model. The analysis does not include any transitional costs to fully implementing the new trade agreement, nor does it take into account stress on the economy as a result of COVID-19. Lastly, only the implications on services trade from regulatory restrictions on the free movement of people have been incorporated in the analysis while the wider labour market impacts of cross-border movement of people are left aside. Results from the simulation show that real GDP losses in the European Union, in the worst case scenario are expected to be around 0.6% in the medium term, but would vary markedly across countries. Ireland would experience the largest losses, while countries with loose trade links with the United Kingdom would barely be affected. The decline in trade is not uniform among sectors. European Union member states are expected to import less professional services such as financial services and insurance, communication, and other business services. UK exports are estimated to fall by about 6.3% and imports by 8.1% in the medium term. The overall medium-term loss in real GDP could amount to 4.4%.
    DOI: 10.1787/eeeea3ec-en
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  • 7
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    Mapping trade to household budget survey : a conversion framework for assessing the distributional impact of trade policies (2020)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD trade policy papers no. 244
    Keywords: Inequality ; household expenditure microdata ; trade policy ; modelling ; Trade ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Whether gains from trade are equally distributed within countries is the subject of a lively debate. This paper presents a novel framework to analyse the distributional effects of trade policy by linking the OECD’s CGE trade model, METRO, with consumption expenditure data from household budget surveys. Specifically, this paper describes a methodology to produce a concordance and transition matrix linking GTAP sectors to household survey classifications based on the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). A mapping methodology is an important pre-requisite for investigating research questions concerning the influence of household behaviour changes on trade, as well as trade developments and policy on household welfare. The paper provides an illustration of the mapping of trade policy induced price changes onto household expenditures by conducting stylized tariff simulations with METRO and translating those into household expenditures by income decile for selected EU countries.
    DOI: 10.1787/5fc6181b-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 8
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    The impact of COVID-19 on directions and structure of international trade (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Trade Policy Papers no.252
    Keywords: Trade
    Abstract: 2020 marked some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and using the latest monthly and quarterly data on international trade of selected countries and products, this paper documents key shifts in geographical direction and product composition of international trade in 2020. Trade in services declined by more than twice as much as trade in goods and its recovery has also been slower. While the size of the drop in global trade relative to the drop in output in 2020 was smaller than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this was not related to the overall size of the trade impacts in 2020, but rather reflects the significant heterogeneity of trade and production impacts across specific goods, services and trade partners from COVID-19. Trade in several types of goods plummeted, while that in others increased markedly. As a result, the variation in trade impacts across the different product categories in 2020 was not only larger than during the GFC, but also larger than in any other year during the past two decades. The product structure of countries’ goods trade also changed significantly in 2020, indicating large adjustments. While some international supply chains came under pressure in early months of the pandemic, the data also show that supply chains were instrumental in the resumption of economic activity. The distance travelled by imported products actually continued to increase in 2020, largely as a result of China and other Asian countries filling supply gaps resulting from lockdowns and demand changes in other regions. These shifts occurred in the context of significant perturbations in the international transport sector. While it is not known which of the changes in 2020 will be only short-lived, some seem to show signs of longer-term shifts or are likely to result in long-term adjustments. Above all, the unprecedented heterogeneity of changes in trade flows across products, sources and destinations seen in 2020 suggests high uncertainty and adjustment costs, and implies an increased need ‒ and incentives ‒ for consumers, firms and governments to adopt new or intensify existing risk mitigation strategies.
    DOI: 10.1787/0b8eaafe-en
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  • 9
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    The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures : A quantitative exploration (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Environment Working Papers no.176
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Effets à long terme de la pandémie de COVID-19 et des mesures de relance sur les pressions environnementales : Etude quantitative
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1‑3%.
    DOI: 10.1787/123dfd4f-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 10
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    Effets à long terme de la pandémie de COVID-19 et des mesures de relance sur les pressions environnementales : Etude quantitative (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures: A quantitative exploration
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics
    Abstract: La présente synthèse contient une analyse des effets à long terme de la pandémie de COVID 19 et des mesures publiques de relance économique adoptées pour y faire face sur l’environnement. À l’aide de modélisations à grande échelle, il étudie les impacts des chocs sectoriels et régionaux sur l’économie jusqu’en 2040. Elle fait le lien entre des chocs sectoriels et régionaux sur l’économie jusqu’en 2040 et une série de pressions sur l’environnement, dont les émissions de gaz à effet de serre ou de polluants atmosphériques, l’utilisation de matières premières et les changements d’affectation des terres.. La réduction à court terme des pressions environnementales est notable : en 2020, les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de polluants atmosphériques liées à l’énergie ont baissé de 7 % environ. Les pressions en rapport avec l’agriculture ont enregistré un recul plus modeste cette même année. Le recul de l’utilisation de minerais non métalliques, dont les matériaux de construction, a atteint un pourcentage à deux chiffres. D’après les projections, les émissions remonteront à partir de 2021 et se rapprocheront progressivement des niveaux de référence antérieures au COVID, les taux de croissance rattrapant tout leur retard. Cependant, à long terme, un effet à la baisse - potentiellement permanent - sur le niveau des pressions environnementales est chiffré entre 1 et 3 %.
    DOI: 10.1787/28ebe842-fr
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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