Evifa-Portal

1

Online-Ressource

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)

Ha, Jongrim ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?

Schlagwort(e): Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices

Kurzfassung: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283

URL: lizenzpflichtig

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

2

Online-Ressource

The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions : A Modeling Framework (2023)

Hallegatte, Stephane ; Beck, Hans ; Dudu, Hasan ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions: A Modeling Framework

Schlagwort(e): Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation Investment ; Decarbonization ; Fossil Fuel Transformation ; Macroeconomic Modeling ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net-Zero Emissions Economy ; Social Development ; Technological Change

Kurzfassung: Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Turkiye's objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Turkiye's economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10367

URL: lizenzpflichtig

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

3

Online-Ressource

Resource-Backed Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa (2023)

Mihalyi, David ; Cust, James ; Hwang, Jyhjong ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource

Serie: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight

Schlagwort(e): Developing Countries ; Economic Adjustment and Lending ; Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource-Backed Lending ; Sub-Saharan Africa ; Transparency

Kurzfassung: This paper investigates the characteristics of resource-backed lending across sub-Saharan Africa. To shed light on this type of lending, the paper presents new information on thirty resource-backed loans identified through publicly available information between 2004-2018. These loans are concentrated in a few countries, where they represent a sizable fraction of all borrowing, they are typically taken by central governments and state-owned enterprises. While loan terms are mostly opaque, where data is available, we find that such loans are not cheaper than regular loans. The authors highlight opportunities to improve transparency and offer some suggestions for improving the governance of collateralized borrowings across developing countries

DOI: 10.1596/40145

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

4

Online-Ressource

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite (2023)

Arroyo-Marioli, Francisco ; Khadan, Jeetendra ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Arroyo-Marioli, Francisco Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite

Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Commodity Price Forecasting ; Contingency Planning ; Economic Forecasting ; Energy ; Energy and Natural Resources ; Futures Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Metals Price ; Natural Resource Revenue ; Oil Price Forecasting

Kurzfassung: Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline projections for the global prices of the commodities they rely on and a sense of the risks around such baseline projections. This paper presents a model suite to prepare well-founded forecasts for the global prices for oil and six industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc). The model suite adapts six approaches used in the literature and tests their forecast performance. Broadly speaking, futures prices or bivariate correlations performed well at short horizons, and consensus forecasts and a large-scale macroeconometric model performed well at long horizons. The strength of Bayesian vector autoregression models lies in generating forecast scenarios. The sizable forecast error bands generated by the model suite highlight the need for policy makers to engage in careful contingency planning for higher or lower prices

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10611

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

5

Online-Ressource

What Explains Global Inflation (2023)

Ha, Jongrim ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim What Explains Global Inflation

Schlagwort(e): Access To Finance ; Demand Shock ; Energy ; Energy Demand ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Global Inflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Drivers ; Interest Rate Shock ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Price ; Supply Shock

Kurzfassung: This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. It estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. The authors report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion's share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10648

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

6

Online-Ressource

Potential Growth Prospects : Risks, Rewards, and Policies (2023)

Kilic Celik, Sinem ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies

Schlagwort(e): Emerging Markets ; Growth Expectations ; Human Capital Accumulation ; Labor Force Participation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Production Function ; Slow Growth ; Social Development

Kurzfassung: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario-by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year-if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10355

URL: lizenzpflichtig

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

7

Online-Ressource

Are the Poorest Catching Up? (2023)

Cust, James ; Collier, Paul ; Rivera-Ballesteros, Alexis

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Cust, James Are the Poorest Catching Up?

Schlagwort(e): Convergence ; Development Economics ; Economic Growth ; Extreme Poverty ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Data ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction

Kurzfassung: Are global incomes converging or diverging Despite recent empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis of unconditional beta convergence, this paper argues that such findings overlook the stark reality facing the world's poorest people. Many lower income countries, including those among the so-called "Bottom Billion," continue to slip further behind the rest of the world, while the numbers of those living in extreme poverty are beginning to rise again after decades of decline. The paper explores how these contradictions can coexist and discusses the policy importance of looking beyond global average trends. The paper identifies three confusions that can arise when analyzing trends in income convergence. First, a focus on unconditional convergence can overlook important policy questions, such as whether countries are likely to eradicate extreme poverty or to catch up with the rest of the world. Tests for convergence may yield only partial answers, especially in light of recent findings that show that unconditional beta convergence can coexist with a significant group of countries slipping ever further behind the rest of the world. Meanwhile extreme poverty numbers are increasing rather than decreasing. Second, average trends can both obscure and be distorted by underlying differences in country composition. In the extreme case, while fast-growing China was below global mean incomes between 2000 and 2020, it significantly boosted empirical support for global convergence. Now that China has passed this threshold, the finding will likely reverse in the coming years as more data is available. Third, different levels of availability of time periods and country coverage can distort and even bias empirical findings, especially where limitations to data availability is correlated with lower income or diverging economies

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10622

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

8

Online-Ressource

The Dog that Didn't Bark : The Missed Opportunity of Africa's Resource Boom (2022)

Cust, James ; Ballesteros, Alexis Rivera ; Zeufack, Albert

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Cust, James The Dog that Didn't Bark: The Missed Opportunity of Africa's Resource Boom

Schlagwort(e): Commodities ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Natural Resources ; Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Resource Curse

Kurzfassung: The commodity price boom from 2004-2014 was a huge economic opportunity for African countries abundant in oil, gas and minerals. During this period their government revenues from resources grew by an average of 1.1 billion USD per year, and economic growth in those same resource-rich countries surged. GDP growth in resource-rich countries accelerated from 4.6% to 5.4% as countries entered a decade long period of sustained high commodity prices. Nonetheless, the paper traces a significant missed opportunity for resource-rich countries in Africa, with little to show for it in the post-boom period, which saw growth collapse far below pre-boom levels, to 2.7% per annum. This paper considers the record of performance during the boom (2004-2014) and subsequent bust from 2015 onwards. The paper describes four main outcomes of the boom: 1) measures of resource dependency rose in Sub-Saharan Africa during the boom, 2) the growth record was strong during the boom but collapsed once commodity prices fell, 3) poverty and inequality rose during the boom despite strong GDP growth, 4) resource-rich countries failed to diversify both their exports and their asset base, leaving them poorly prepared for the end of the boom and a period of lower commodity prices and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic. The conclusions are stark. During this golden decade of sustained high commodity prices and booming revenues, there was limited re-investment of those revenues into building sustainable assets for the future. In other words, countries consumed the boom, rather than successfully transformed their economies. The conclusion is that many resource-rich countries in the region squandered their "once in a generation" opportunity for economic transformation, offering policy lessons that may prove valuable as we enter a new period of elevated commodity prices

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10120

URL: lizenzpflichtig

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

9

Online-Ressource

Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters : A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floods and Earthquakes in Turkey (2022)

Hallegatte, Stephane ; Jooste, Charl ; Mcisaac, Florent John

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters: A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floods and Earthquakes in Turkey

Schlagwort(e): Damage To Infrastructure ; Environment ; Impact Of Climate ; Inflation ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity Of Capital ; Monetary Policy ; Natural Disaster ; Trade and Investment

Kurzfassung: Turkey is vulnerable to natural disasters that can generate substantial damages to public and private sector infrastructure capital. Earthquakes and floods are the most frequent hazards today, and flood risks are expected to increase with climate change. To ensure stability and growth and minimize the welfare impact of these disasters, these shocks need to be managed and accounted for in macro-fiscal and monetary policy. To support this process, the World Bank Macrostructural Model is adapted to assess the macroeconomic effects of natural (geophysical or climate-related) disasters. The macroeconomic model is extended on several fronts: (1) a distinction is made between infrastructure and non-infrastructure capital, with complementary or substitutability between the two categories; (2) the production function is adjusted to account for short-term complementarity across capital assets; (3) the reconstruction process is modeled in a way that accounts for post-disaster constraints, with distinct processes for the reconstruction of public and private assets. The results show that destroyed infrastructure capital makes the remaining non-infrastructure capital less productive, which means that disasters reduce the total stock of capital, but also its productivity. The welfare impact of a disaster-proxied by the discounted consumption loss-is found to increase non-linearly with direct asset losses. Macroeconomic responses reduce the welfare impact of minor disasters but magnify it when direct asset losses exceed the economy's absorption capacity. The welfare impact also depends on the pre-existing economic situation, the ability of the economy to reallocate resources toward reconstruction, and the response of the monetary policy. Appropriate macro-fiscal and monetary policies offer cost-effective opportunities to mitigate the welfare impact of major disasters

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9943

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

10

Online-Ressource

A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)

Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Sugawara, Naotaka

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic

Schlagwort(e): Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic Impact ; Pandemic Response ; Private Debt ; Sovereign Debt

Kurzfassung: The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings. First, during the 2020 global recession, both global government and private debt levels rose to record highs, and at their fastest single-year pace, in five decades. Second, the debt-financed, massive fiscal support programs implemented during the pandemic supported activity and illustrated the benefits of accumulating debt. However, as the recovery gains traction, the balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation could increasingly tilt toward costs. Third, more than two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies are currently in government debt booms. On average, the current booms have already lasted three years longer, and are accompanied by a considerably larger fiscal deterioration, than earlier booms. About half of the earlier debt booms were associated with financial crises in emerging market and developing economies

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9800

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

11

Online-Ressource

The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)

Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Reinhart, Carmen ; [weitere]

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan The Aftermath of Debt Surges

Schlagwort(e): Debt Burden ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Debt Service ; Debt Sustainability ; Economic Growth ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Repression ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Consolidation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development

Kurzfassung: Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated debt levels increased the incidence of debt distress, particularly in EMDEs and particularly when financial market conditions turned less benign. This paper reviews an encompassing menu of options that have, in the past, helped lower debt burdens. Specifically, it examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. Some options may ultimately be ineffective unless vigorously implemented. Policy reversals in difficult times have been common. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can cast their net wider to cushion prospective shocks to EMDEs

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9771

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

12

Online-Ressource

Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy : A Case Study for Pakistan (2021)

Burns, Andrew ; Jooste, Charl ; Schwerhoff, Gregor

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (116 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Burns, Andrew Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy: A Case Study for Pakistan

Schlagwort(e): Adaptation To Climate Change ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Carbon Pricing ; Climate Change ; Climate Change and Environment ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Economic Modeling ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Taxation and Subsidies

Kurzfassung: As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, the design and implementation of climate-aware policies have assumed a more central role in the macroeconomic policy debate. With this has come an increasing recognition of the importance of introducing climate into the economic policy making tools used by central economic policy making agencies (such as ministries of finance and ministries of planning). This paper integrates climate outcomes into a macro-structural model for Pakistan, the kind of model that is suitable for use on a regular basis by ministry staff. The model includes the standard set of variables and economic logic that are necessary for the kinds of forecasting, economic policy, and budgetary planning analysis typically conducted by central ministries. In addition to standard outputs (unemployment, inflation, gross domestic product growth, and fiscal and current accounts), the model generates climate outcomes (tons of carbon emitted and economic and health damages due to higher temperatures and pollution). These outcomes are generated when specific climate policies such as mitigation are analyzed, but also when other policies are analyzed that might have unanticipated climate impacts. The paper describes the changes made to the World Bank's standard macro structural model, MFMod, in integrated climate outcomes, climate policies, and the economic impacts of climate on Pakistan's economy. Notably, carbon-tax scenarios show that a USD 20 carbon tax can reduce emissions in Pakistan by 36 percent by 2050. Gross domestic product impacts could also be positive, if the revenues from the carbon tax were used to reduce reliance on heavily distorting taxes. The model also quantifies associated co-benefits from reduced local air pollution and better health and productivity outcomes. In the absence of action to restrain climate change, the model suggests that increased temperatures and rain variability could reduce output by as much as 10 percent compared with a scenario where global temperature rises were minimized

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9780

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.

13

Online-Ressource

One-Stop Source : A Global Database of Inflation (2021)

Ha, Jongrim ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Ohnsorge, Franziska

Washington, D.C : The World Bank

zur Merkliste hinzufügen auf der Merkliste

Details

Sprache: Englisch

Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)

Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Ha, Jongrim One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation

Schlagwort(e): Consumer Price Index ; Deflation ; Inflation ; Inflation Synchronization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Prices

Kurzfassung: This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9737

URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich

Permalink

Bibliothek	Standort	Signatur	Band/Heft/Jahr	Verfügbarkeit

Andere fanden auch interessant ...

Online-Ressource

MPI Ethno. Forsch.