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  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (1,206)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing
  • Macroeconomics and Economic Growth  (1,206)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Madrigal Correa, Alma Lucia Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines
    Keywords: Ancestral Domains ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict Data Monitor ; Indigenous Peoples ; Indigenous Peoples Law ; Land Titling ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mindano ; Political Economy ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (18 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bou-Habib, Chadi Globalization, Dutch Disease, and Vulnerability to External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Lebanon in 1916 and 2019
    Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Crisis ; External Shock ; Famine ; General Equilibrium Simulation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mount Lebanon ; Natural Disaster
    Abstract: This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Moretti, Matias Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Emerging Markets Bond Index ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Inelastic Financial Markets ; Institutional Investors ; International Capital Markets ; International Financial Markets ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Small Open Economies ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment device that reduces default risk
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Data Development and Gender ; Economic Growth ; Employment and Unemployment ; Human Development and Gender ; Labor Market Policy and Programs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Protection Delivery Systems ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The following analytical report summarizes the technical notes and presentations prepared by the World Bank and the Workforce Development Center under the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of Kazakhstan (MLSPP). These works aimed to support the MLSPP in the preparation of the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029. The teams analyzed existing barriers and the potential for the creation of quality jobs in Kazakhstan because employment is essential for economic growth, which contributes to reducing poverty. Despite slower economic growth and some institutional challenges, Kazakhstan, nevertheless, has been successful at reducing the poverty rate. The major factor contributing to Kazakhstan's growth has been productivity, regardless of the period. A much lower contribution stems from labor market factors and employment rates. Therefore, the teams focused on how to boost firm productivity to increase the number and accessibility of better jobs, as well as how to develop skills and provide good education to the different groups of the population and prepare people for new and old jobs. Based on the material delivered by the World Bank, the WDC and other local expert groups, the MLSPP was able to draft the Concept Plan of Labor Market Development for 2024-2029, which the Government of Kazakhstan approved on November 28, 2023
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (69 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Del Carmen, Giselle Two Decades of Top Income Shares in Honduras
    Keywords: Administrative Registries ; Econometrics ; Economic Development ; Honduras ; Income ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Top Income
    Abstract: This paper presents distributional national accounts for Honduras over 2003-2019, using survey microdata, administrative tax records, and national account aggregates. It assembles comprehensive data on formal income for high-income individuals, including information on corporate shareholders, which allows corporate profits to be assigned to their owners. The estimates suggest a high and persistent inequality in the country: the top 1 percent highest earners received approximately 30 percent of the total income over the period, placing Honduras among the most unequal countries in the world. Undistributed corporate profits are the overwhelming income source at the very top of the distribution, highlighting its importance in the measurement of income inequality. Finally, using a panel of tax records, the paper also documents that not only is inequality persistent, but the same individuals are often observed at the top, suggesting that the observed inequality has deep roots
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aguilar Luna, Luis Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Export Activity ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Labor Productivity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Wage Rate
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995-2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries' specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pullinger, John Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Statistical System ; Statistical Capacity ; Statistical Capacity Index ; Statistical Indicators ; Statistical Performance
    Abstract: Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. This paper offers the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. It compares the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index with other widely used indexes, such as the Open Data Inventory index, the Global Data Barometer index, and other regional and self-assessment tools. The findings show that each index brings advantages in data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of countries and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. The Open Data Inventory index covers the most countries, the Global Data Barometer index collects data through its surveys, and the Statistical Performance Indicators and Index offer a broader framework for assessing statistical systems. The paper offers further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions for development
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Isser, Deborah H Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21St Century: Four Trends and an Uncertain Outlook
    Keywords: Centralized Power Arrangements ; Checks and Balances ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance Reform ; Governance Trajectory ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions
    Abstract: What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business Environment ; E-Government ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Governance ; Innovation and Technology Privacy ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The Chinese government has a long-standing commitment to business environment and digital government reforms. China's online government-to-business (G2B) services have enhanced public service efficiency, accessibility, and transparency, creating a more favorable business environment. This note features a case study of the all-in-one online government service platform developed in Zhejiang Province, a subnational leader in promoting e-government and business environment reforms. Following general national guidelines, Zhejiang has been a leader in exploring innovations to promote digital government development and business environment reforms. Its reforms both demonstrate the effectiveness of a proactive approach to leveraging digital technologies for administrative efficiency and an improved user experience and highlight the positive impacts on the business environment
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mali assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mali perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mali on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mali; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mali; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mali; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mali
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dang, Hai-Anh Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost: Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment
    Keywords: Consumption ; Household Surveys ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction ; Survey-To-Survey Imputation
    Abstract: Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-a-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Law ; Gender Based Violence ; Gender Equality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nonextractive Sectors ; Resilience
    Abstract: Papua New Guinea has abundant resources in the form of oil and mineral wealth. But a complex set of factors, including systemic gender inequality, underinvestment in non-extractive sectors, and fragility compounded by vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards act as barriers to sustainable and inclusive growth of the country. This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) report assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group support to Papua New Guinea between fiscal year FY08 and FY23. It assesses the Bank Group's development effectiveness in addressing the above three core themes, namely: (i) lack of investment in Papua New Guinea's non-extractive sectors and their poor performance, (ii) the economic exclusion of women and gender-based violence (GBV) issues associated with it, and (iii) unmitigated risks of disaster from natural hazards, and violence, and conflict. The report answers three specific questions. The first explores the extent to which the Bank Group adapted its engagement in line with key constraints, including in relation to development partners, changes in country context, and lessons from experience. The second focuses on the results of Bank Group support and explanatory factors for results under each them, answered by applying a gender lens where relevant. The third question explores the extent to which the Bank Group successfully identified and addressed conflict, violence, and disaster from natural hazards risks. The report offers key lessons to inform the World Bank Group's future engagement with the country: (i) Data gaps need to be addressed to inform sound policy making and effective programming in Papua New Guinea. (ii) Declining governance quality and increasing bilateral aid will require the World Bank to reassess how it supports key policy reforms to achieve development impact, including through using DPOs. (iii) The Bank Group could elevate its impact on gender equality and GBV by shifting from a project-centric approach to a strategic country engagement approach. (iv) The negative effects that compound and interrelated risks pose to achieving development aims need to be addressed more comprehensively
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Environment ; IDA19 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rating System ; Resilience ; RRS
    Abstract: In response to the growing recognition that measuring inputs, such as climate finance, is not enough to capture the impacts of investments, the World Bank Group developed the Resilience Rating System (RRS). Developed over a two-year, multi-sectoral consultative process through close collaboration with internal and external actors, the RRS methodology aims to guide investment decisions and improve climate resilience in project design and outcomes. The methodology report is publicly available. The RRS evaluates and rates investment projects from C to A+, based on their resilience attributes in two complementary dimensions. The resilience of rating considers a project's design, reflecting the confidence that it will achieve its expected objectives and maximize development benefits in the face of climate and disaster risks. The resilience through rating considers a project's outcomes and reflects its contribution to improving climate resilience in the broader community, sector and systems, and to driving transformational adaptation. Combining the two dimension ratings provides an overall project rating, from CC to A+A+
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Algeria assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Algeria perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Algeria on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Algeria; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Algeria; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Algeria; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Algeria
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ambel, Alemayehu A Does Unequal Tax Burden Contribute to Women-Owned Businesses Leaving the Tax Net?
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Gender Gap ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Women and Tax ; Women Run Businesses
    Abstract: This study investigates gender disparities in the tax burden in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, using data on 2,320 taxpayers for 2011 and 2012. A quantile regression analysis is employed to control for firm characteristics such as sector, size, and age. The results show that women-owned businesses are more likely to operate in low-profit sectors and report lower sales and tax liabilities than men-owned businesses. However, women-owned businesses pay as much as men-owned businesses in taxes, suggesting that they are subject to a higher effective tax rate. This, in turn, may lead to women-owned businesses exiting the tax net at a higher rate. These findings suggest that gender disparities in tax compliance are not simply due to differences in firm characteristics but may also be due to biases in tax declaration and enforcement processes
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (57 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Chen, Yutong Gender-Specific Transportation Costs and Female Time Use: Evidence from India's Pink Slip Program
    Keywords: Difference in Differences Specifications ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Labor Supply ; Low Skilled Labor ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Transportation Cost ; Travel Subsidies ; Unemployed Women ; Women in The Workforce
    Abstract: This paper estimates a synthetic difference-in-differences specification on the roll-out of a program providing free bus transit for women in several Indian states, to examine the impact on women's time allocation and labor supply. Household expenditures on buses fall and women save time on travel. However, there is substantial heterogeneity. Skilled employed women increase labor supply and reduce time on household chores. Low-skilled married women increase time on household activities and reduce labor supply. Unemployed women increase job search with no effect on employment. The findings show that gender roles within households undermine the effect of gender-specific travel subsidies on female labor supply
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Alimi, Omoniyi Babatunde Are Unit Values Reliable Proxies for Prices? Implications of Better Price Data for Household Consumption Measurement in a Low-Income Context
    Keywords: Commodity Group Price ; Household Consumption And Expenditure ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nominal Consumption Aggregate ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Separability Assumption ; Unit Values
    Abstract: Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys are key to consumption-based monetary poverty measurement. In the absence of market price surveys that are linked to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys, unit values are used as proxies for market prices in estimating nominal consumption aggregates, price deflators, poverty lines, and poverty statistics. This practice relies on the Hicksian separability assumption: within-commodity group relative prices are constant across space and the price of a single good is an accurate proxy for the commodity group price. To test, for the first time in a low-income context, whether Hicksian separability holds, this paper uses the price data collected for an extensive list of food items, including several variety/quality-differentiated products for specific items, in a national market survey that was conducted in Malawi in sync with the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey that is the source of official poverty statistics. The analysis demonstrates that Hicksian separability fails to hold across space and time and that unit values are biased proxies for prices. Integrating the Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey and market survey data based on location and timing of fieldwork permits an assessment of consumption and poverty estimation based on market prices versus unit values. Relative to unit values, using market prices leads to higher food and overall consumption expenditures--both in nominal and real terms--while generating higher poverty lines and higher food and overall poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts based on unit values, spatially-disaggregated poverty estimates based on market prices exhibit a stronger correlation with nightlights --an objective proxy for living standards
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic, Talip Recording the Time Divide: A Comparative Study of Smartphone- and Recall-Based Approaches to Time Use Measurement
    Keywords: Cellular Phones ; Commercial Recall ; Consumption ; Household Survey ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Telecommunications ; Usage Monitoring
    Abstract: Based on a randomized survey experiment in Malawi, this study examines how innovative techniques in time use data collection could sidestep measurement concerns with traditional recall-based time use measurement. The experiment assigns random samples of households, and adult men and women within, to one of two treatment arms on time use measurement: a traditional 24-hour recall time use diary, and a self-administered smartphone-based pictorial time diary, known as the TimeTracker app, for real-time data collection. Compared to the recall arm, participation in employment and unpaid domestic and care work is shown to be higher in the smartphone arm for both men and women. The resulting estimates of gender gaps, while continuing to be large, are narrower in the smartphone arm, except for care work where the estimated gender gap increases. The recall treatment leads to substantial underreporting of activities after 6 pm, which otherwise accounts for nearly 30 percent of daily reported time in the smartphone arm. Likewise, the extent of simultaneous activities, particularly among women, is markedly lower in the recall arm. The overall reported time is, however, higher in the recall arm due to the minimum 15-minute duration that was used for recording activities the 24-hour recall diary, while over one-third of activities lasted less than 15 minutes in the smartphone arm. The analysis also shows that using stylized time use questions with a 7-day recall, as opposed to a 24-hour recall diary, results in an even greater overestimation of reported time in employment and unpaid work
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Uzbekistan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Uzbekistan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Uzbekistan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Uzbekistan
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Climate Change Adaptation ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Finance ; Inlcusive Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience
    Abstract: This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) examines Liberia's development trajectory through the lens of the country's vulnerability to climate change. It identifies Liberia's development risks and opportunities, models various scenarios of climate impact and intervention, and proposes ways to strengthen resilience and finance climate actions that support Liberia's development aspirations of inclusive growth and poverty reduction
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Education ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Risks ; Footprint ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non-Oil Revenue ; Quasi-Fiscal Activities ; SNG
    Abstract: The first three chapters of the PFR review the core fiscal policy and revenue mobilization issues. Chapter 1 discusses the fiscal landscape, fiscal framework, and progressivity of fiscal policy. Chapter 2 looks at the footprint of quasi-fiscal activities, which affects the overall fiscal stance and exposes certain fiscal risks. Chapter 3 discusses the stagnation in non-oil revenue and collection across taxes and outlines reform options to improve the tax regime. This PFR also covers education and social protection spending, constituting about 42 percent of generalgovernment budget spending, and is critical for Kazakhstan's social agenda and long-term development goals. Chapter 4 analyzes the efficiency of public spending on education, discusses challenges in delivering equitable access to quality education, and offers options for enhancing spending effectiveness through institutional and policy changes. Chapter 5 discusses the efficiency and effectiveness of spending on the social protection system, particularly the coverage and targeting of social assistance programs, issues in implementing active labor market programs, and challenges in delivering social insurance. Because of data constraints, this PFR excludes analysis on social benefits, pensions, and the State Social Insurance Fund. The last two chapters cover the core system of public-finance management issues on budgeting and inter-governmental fiscal relations. Chapter 6 considers options for further improving budgeting, planning, and monitoring to deliver better fiscal outcomes for inclusive and resilient growth. While Chapter 7 examines emerging subnational fiscal issues and options to simplify and improve certainty in the transfer mechanism from central to SNGs and within the SNG hierarchy
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Komatsu, Hitomi Presumptive Tax on Small and Microenterprises with a Gender Lens in Ethiopia
    Keywords: Effective Tax Rate ; Female Entrepreneurs ; Fiscal Policy ; Gender ; Gender and Economics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microenterprises ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: Governments often use simplified business tax systems, such as presumptive tax regimes, to register and tax small and microenterprises. Despite concerns about how such regimes could disproportionately affect female-owned and low-revenue entrepreneurs, there is a lack of empirical analysis examining the tax burden. The presumptive tax in Ethiopia has a complex assessment system, where the tax liabilities are determined according to the activity type and turnover (99 activities and 19 turnover bands), and some activities do not have a tax-free threshold. This paper uses two rounds of data in the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Surveys and the tax code to analyze the equity and gender implications of the presumptive tax on small and microenterprises by imputing the effective tax rates. There are three key findings. First, the effective tax rates are higher for businesses in the lowest quartile at 4.3 percent of turnover compared to 1.5 percent for businesses in the highest quartile, using the most recent survey, resulting in a regressive system. Second, male-owned businesses tend to operate in sectors without a tax-free threshold and are more likely than female-owned businesses to face higher tax rates. Third, the effective tax rates are high for businesses in food and beverage services, which is female-dominated, and for transit services, which is male-dominated, due to the lack of a tax-free threshold for these sectors. The study finds that an alternative presumptive tax system with a single tax rate on turnover and an exemption for all low-revenue businesses would be simpler for tax assessment and more progressive
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rodriguez-Pose, Andres Overcoming Left-Behindedness: Moving beyond the Efficiency versus Equity Debate in Territorial Development
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Efficiency ; Equity Territories ; Growth ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Rural Development ; Regional Urban Development ; Regions ; Rural Development
    Abstract: Territorial development theory and practice have witnessed significant change in recent times. This change has increasingly put the spatial dimension at the center of development policies. Although agglomeration-focused policies derived from urbanization and agglomeration economics were once prominent, their empirical limitations have become increasingly apparent. Greater territorial polarization and pervasive left-behindedness have underscored the need for a more inclusive territorial development approach, prompting increased interest in understanding and addressing regional disparities to ensure more equitable economic growth. This paper synthesizes the growing interest in territorial development, which has driven the adoption of what are increasingly place-based and place-sensitive approaches to development. The paper also emphasizes the need for complementarity between efficiency-driven and equity-focused interventions, while highlighting emerging topics in regional economics research, including the role of institutions, agency, and external megatrends such as the green transition. The paper concludes by advocating a place-sensitive approach that tailors policies to regional challenges, promoting economic potential, diversification, and inclusivity across all regions
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Financial Aid ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Azerbaijan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Azerbaijan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Azerbaijan on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Azerbaijan; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Azerbaijan; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Azerbaijan; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Azerbaijan
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in the Kyrgyz Republic assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in the Kyrgyz Republic perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in the Kyrgyz Republic on 1) their views regarding the general environment in the Kyrgyz Republic; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in the Kyrgyz Republic; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in the Kyrgyz Republic
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  • 28
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Fiji assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Fiji perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Fiji on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Fiji; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Fiji; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Fiji; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Fiji
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Urban Study
    Keywords: Demographics and Aging ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth and Planning ; Environment ; Environment and Natural Resource Management ; Human Development and Gender ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Strategy and Policy ; Urban and Rural Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: This report begins with an Executive Summary, which introduces the territorial development approach and the rationale for applying it in Lesotho's development context before going on to summarize key takeaways and recommendations. It is followed by four chapters: chapter 1, Introduction, lays out the country context, presenting in brief Lesotho's economic and demographic situation, population projections, governmental structure, and poverty profile and the government's goals. Chapter 2, territorial development framework and analysis in Lesotho, discusses the territorial development approach, its objectives, and the challenges it aims to address before presenting a customized 2 by 2 territorial framework for Lesotho and explaining how it can be applied. Chapter 3, analyzing Lesotho's Challenges through a Territorial Lens, lays out a spatial analysis centering on four development challenges: economic opportunities, internal connectivity and regional integration, access to basic services, and climate preparedness. To highlight the challenges, the chapter includes 4D heat maps linked to density, distance, disparity, and disaster risk. It also summaries case studies and real-life applications of the territorial development approach in Lesotho. Full case studies are in an annex. Chapter 4, recommendations, covers guiding principles and recommendations based on the territorial development approach and analysis
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Effectiveness ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Sao Tome and Principe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Sao Tome and Principe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Sao Tome and Principe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Sao Tome and Principe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Sao Tome and Principe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Sao Tome and Principe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Sao Tome and Principe
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Montenegro assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Montenegro perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Montenegro on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Montenegro; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Montenegro; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Montenegro; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Montenegro
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Co-Evolutionary Framework ; Diversification ; Economic Growth ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Principle Of Relatedness ; Technology-Based
    Abstract: This research examines the diversification process by conceptualizing a co-evolutionary framework linking production and technology. The study applies the framework to retrospectively explain Korea's successful diversification path and to Viet Nam to identify how the country could further diversify into complex and value-added products. The authors apply relatedness analysis leveraging patent and trade data and present four different types of diversification patterns, namely unrelated diversification, production-based diversification, technology-based diversification, and complex diversification. Developed countries including Korea shifted toward technology-based or complex diversification strategies as their economies developed. Using a simulated scenario approach, the report outlines potential future trajectories wherein Viet Nam attains technological capabilities. The result shows that Viet Nam can diversify into 233 products if it accumulates capabilities in the 12 identified technologies. The report concludes with policy lessons that could inform policy makers in Viet Nam as well as other developing economies. Namely, that the country would need to invest more intensively in technology and capabilities upgrading to diversify into new complex products and evolve its diversification strategy alongside its economic growth and capability building process
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  • 33
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Turkiye assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Turkiye perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Turkiye on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Turkiye; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Turkiye; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Turkiye; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Turkiye
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Giuliano, Fernando The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Shocks in Uruguay
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Shocks ; Droughts ; Econometrics ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Environmental Disasters and Degradation ; Floods ; Macro-Structural Model ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Uruguay is an economy that is vulnerable to precipitation patterns, as evidenced during the country's historic 2022/23 drought. Yet, and despite its rich macroeconomic and climate data environment, the country does not have a consistent macroeconomic model to address the aggregate impact of climate shocks, let alone the expected additional impact from climate change. This paper intends to fill this gap by integrating climate shocks into the World Bank's Macro-Fiscal Model, its workhorse structural macroeconomic projection model. Building on existing country studies on the sectoral effects of droughts and floods, the analysis finds that the volatility of a simulated Uruguayan economy only subject to historical climate shocks reaches 22 percent of the historical volatility of gross domestic product. Moreover, as climate shocks are only one of many shocks that can simultaneously affect an economy, incorporating exogenous macroeconomic shocks into historical climate shocks exacerbates volatility and increases potential losses. Gross domestic product can fall by 2.3 percent under a combined negative climate and macroeconomic shock of the type witnessed once every six years on average, and 4.1 percent under a once-in-40-years combined negative shock. Climate change compounds these effects going forward, worsening the magnitude of the downside risks from droughts by between 18 and 30 percent, although estimates incorporating climate change are subject to large uncertainty. The order of magnitude of these effects calls for a more systematic consideration of climate shocks in macroeconomic projections and fiscal risk assessments for Uruguay
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Accountability ; Social Development ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Cabo Verde assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Cabo Verde perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Cabo Verde on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Cabo Verde; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Cabo Verde; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Cabo Verde; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Cabo Verde
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Fiscal Incidence on the Island: Grenada's Fiscal System and Its Incidence
    Keywords: Consumption ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy Interventions ; Inequality ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Expenditure ; Public Revenue ; Social Transfers ; Tax ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal policy in Grenada. Using data from the 2017-18 Living Conditions and Household Budgets Survey and following the Commitment to Equity analysis framework, the paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy interventions on inequality and poverty. It analyzes the distributional incidence of direct and indirect taxes, direct transfers provided by social transfers and school feeding programs, and in-kind transfers generated by public services in health and education. The results show that Grenada has a tax system that is neutral on the value-added tax side and progressive on the personal income tax side. Furthermore, direct transfers make a modest contribution to poverty reduction and are almost neutral in their distributive impact. The results contribute to the understanding of who bears the burden of taxation and benefits from transfers and of how Grenada's fiscal system can improve its redistributive effect
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Robayo, Monica Reassessing Welfare Impacts of Bulgarian Fiscal Policy through a Child Poverty Perspective
    Keywords: Child Poverty ; Commitment To Equity (CEQ) Model ; Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Child Poverty ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Incidence ; Fiscal Policy ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Social Spending ; Taxation
    Abstract: This paper delves into Bulgaria's persistent issue of child poverty, even amidst policy efforts at the European Union (EU) and national levels. The study updates a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis using the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) model, considering COVID-19's impact and a child-focused perspective, and simulates child-related policy interventions' effectiveness in alleviating child poverty. Our results show that Bulgaria's fiscal system has a limited impact on the overall at-risk of poverty rate, though it shows potential in reducing poverty for lower income deciles. Bulgaria's fiscal system reduces inequality compared to other countries with similar income levels, primarily driven by the substantial influence of direct transfers, education, and health allocations. Nevertheless, the redistributive effect of direct taxes and transfers remains comparatively modest within Europe. The study emphasizes the progressive nature of Bulgaria's fiscal components, benefiting the poorest through social benefits. When applying a child lens, our results show that fiscal policy is not very effective in addressing child poverty, as it reduces it by just 0.3 percentage points. However, means-tested programs targeting families and children play a significant role in mitigating child poverty. This research also underscores that specific households in Bulgaria face heightened vulnerability and may not receive optimal support from fiscal measures, including households with three or more children and lone-parent households, especially those headed by lone females. Microsimulation results suggest that enhancing child tax deductions among low-income earners and refining the design of child benefits to improve targeting effectiveness and generosity can notably contribute to child poverty reduction. The paper offers insights into more equitable policy design in Bulgaria's pursuit of combating child poverty
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Insight
    Keywords: Fiscal Capacity Estimation ; Fiscal Policy ; Intergovernmental Transfers ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subnational Tax Effort ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper discusses the application of the conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation using Indonesia's existing macroeconomic indicators. The authors find that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, and urbanization rate are good predictors for most tax sources. These three indicators also predicted the total district's OSRs well, providing an empirical foundation for an aggregated macro-based model to estimate all OSRs using the abovementioned variables. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 1 provides a description of Indonesia's system of intergovernmental transfers and subnational taxation. It shows subnational fiscal reliance on transfers rather than OSRs. Section 2 makes the case for reforming the DAU formula and explains recent efforts by the Government of Indonesia on that front. Section 3 discusses the limited existing empirical literature on estimating potential revenues for transfers formula. Section 4 explains and applies our conceptual framework for potential revenue estimation. It also provides the empirical justification to use an aggregated approach to estimation rather than estimating each individual tax base. Section 5 applies the aggregated approach to estimating potential revenues. Section 6 discusses the equity implications and makes the case for using district fixed effects. Finally, section 7 provides a conclusion of this paper
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  • 40
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Serbia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Serbia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Serbia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Serbia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Serbia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Serbia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Serbia
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  • 41
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Guinea perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Guinea on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Guinea; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Guinea; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Guinea; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Guinea
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Ghana assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Ghana perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ghana on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Ghana; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Ghana; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Ghana; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Ghana
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Pricing ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Energy and Economic Development ; Energy Prices ; Growth and Real Sector ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pandemic and weak global trade has particularly impacted Thailand due to the country's position as a trade and tourism hub. Thailand's tourism arrivals reached only 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels in September despite the ongoing growth in global services trade. Visitor numbers increased across the board, except for China and Japan which are experiencing economic slowdown. The economic recovery faltered due to global headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2023 Q3, well below expectations. Thailand has implemented a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has taken the first steps to implementing comprehensive carbon pricing. This report explores some of the complexities involved in implementing carbon pricing. It finds that Thailand has already taken some of the most difficult steps in setting up a comprehensive carbon pricing policy instrument. Important questions remain to be addressed about what form carbon pricing should take in Thailand and which economic sectors should be included in a carbon pricing scheme. The potential benefits from carbon pricing may be substantial. Carbon pricing is likely to play an important role in meeting future emission reduction targets, reducing environmental degradation and air pollution while positioning Thailand as a regional leader in green and sustainable growth
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Demand Shortfalls ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Growth ; Inflation ; Investment Shifts ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Property Sector
    Abstract: Economic activity in China has picked up in 2023, but the recovery remains fragile. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.2 percent y/y in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by demand for services, resilient manufacturing investment, and public infrastructure stimulus. The initial phase of economic reopening triggered a surge in economic activity in Q1, but growth momentum decelerated rapidly in Q2 before recovering modestly in Q3. The volatile growth performance, compounded by persistent deflationary pressures and still weak consumer confidence, suggests continued fragility in the recovery. China's investment deceleration has been one of the key drivers of the overall growth slowdown in recent years. Together with the decline in aggregate investment growth, there has been a marked shift in the composition of investment. Structural reforms are crucial both to accelerate rebalancing towards higher consumption and to mitigate risks of inefficiencies in capital allocation. Following recent statements by policymakers, a renewed focus on structural reform implementation with specific measures strengthening the rule of law, independent enforcement of regulations, fostering competition, and ensuring a level-playing field could help ensure that resources are allocated to the most productive sectors and firms. Deepening financial sector reform will enhance market-based financial intermediation. Measures to improve the progressivity of the fiscal system, reform the hukou system, and foster inclusive finance will support household consumption growth
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  • 45
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (79 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amjad, Beenish Fiscal Policy, Poverty, and Inequality in a Constrained Environment: The Case of the West Bank and Gaza
    Keywords: Cash Transfer Program ; Commitment To Equity ; Comparative Analysis ; Fiscal Policy ; Indirect Taxes ; Inequality ; Inequality Reduction ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Tax Administration ; VAT
    Abstract: This report analyzes the distributional impacts of the main taxes and transfers on households' welfare in the West Bank and Gaza. The analysis uses the Commitment to Equity methodology, enabling comparison of the results to other countries where this framework has been applied. The report assesses the effects of government taxation, social expenditure, and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza. The results indicate that the combination of taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza reduces inequality by 6.5 Gini points but increases the national poverty headcount by 8.4 percentage points. These fiscal policy outcomes on poverty and inequality reduction are below average in terms of desirability compared to other lower-middle-income countries. The taxes and transfers modelled in the West Bank and Gaza achieve most inequality reduction through in-kind benefits from public basic education and public hospitals, followed by the Cash Transfer Program and the value-added tax (VAT). Their large impact on inequality reduction is explained by a combination of their progressivity and their size relative to household income. The redistributive effect of direct taxes, customs duties, and indirect subsidies is zero or close to zero. Indirect taxes represent the fiscal interventions contributing most to the increase in national poverty; customs duties followed by VAT represent the largest burden on households' incomes. Direct transfers from social protection cannot offset the impoverishment effect from indirect taxes because they have very limited coverage. Only the poorest decile is a net cash beneficiary after paying taxes and receiving cashable transfers. The rest of the deciles are net payers to the fiscal system. To decrease poverty and inequality in the West Bank and Gaza, the most significant policy recommendation to emerge from the analysis is to expand direct transfers to the second and third deciles to compensate for indirect tax burdens. Financing this reform is feasible through domestic tax mobilization or through rationalization of inefficient fuel and electricity subsidies that benefit the top income deciles most
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  • 47
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Thomas, Alastair VAT Rate Structures in Theory and Practice
    Keywords: Economic Theory and Research ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Redistribution ; Reduced Rates ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Tax Reform ; Value Added Tax (VAT)
    Abstract: Most countries' value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and (to a lesser extent) social and cultural objectives. This paper assesses the case for applying reduced VAT rates, with a particular focus on OECD countries where reduced rates feature prominently. It examines both the theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as practical considerations, and concludes that the case for reduced VAT rates is weak. In particular, the optimal indirect tax literature finds no redistributive role for reduced VAT rates when other more direct instruments are available. These theoretical findings are supported by the empirical literature that shows reduced VAT rates to be a poorly targeted means of supporting lower income households, particularly when compared to targeted cash transfer programs. Similarly, reduced VAT rates are unlikely to be a well-targeted way to encourage consumption of merit goods, while they also create significant administrative complexity. These findings have significant implications for tax reform in both developed and developing economies. In particular, where countries have the administrative capacity to implement effectively targeted cash transfer programs, they should use these programs to support poorer households instead of reduced VAT rates
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Analysis
    Keywords: Early Childhood ; Economic Growth ; Human Capital ; Human Capital Protection ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor ; Strengths and Gaps
    Abstract: This human capital review assesses human capital outcomes in Mauritania and identifies actions to strengthen, utilize, and protect human capital. The government of Mauritania has demonstrated a strong commitment to placing human capital at the forefront of its long-term vision, with dedicated efforts focused on enhancing childhood health and education outcomes. Despite Mauritania's positive initiatives, the country's human capital wealth per capita has declined over the last 20 years; and it is imperative to look at ways to quickly reverse this situation. Children born today in Mauritania will only be 38 percent as productive when they grow up as they could have been had they enjoyed complete education and full health. Increasing the productivity of Mauritanians--both men and women--and thus allowing them to fully contribute to the development of their society entails transforming the human capital challenge to a human capital opportunity. This report takes a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach and proposes recommendations for building, protecting, and utilizing human capital in Mauritania
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  • 49
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Kenya assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Kenya perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Kenya on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Kenya; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Kenya; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Kenya; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Kenya
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Zimbabwe assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Zimbabwe perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Zimbabwe on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Zimbabwe; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Zimbabwe; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Zimbabwe; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Zimbabwe
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  • 52
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Jamaica assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Jamaica perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Jamaica on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Jamaica; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Jamaica; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Jamaica; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Jamaica
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: IEG Independent Evaluations and Annual Reviews
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragility ; CPE ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Drought and Climate Shocks ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mavroeconomic Vulnerabilities ; Unsustainable Development ; Weak Business Environment
    Abstract: The objective of this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) is to assess how well the World Bank Group supported Ethiopia in addressing key challenges that constrained its development and how that support adapted over time to respond to changing circumstances, an evolving relationship, and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover fiscal years (FY)13-23. The time period is selected to include the last two Bank Group strategies to support Ethiopia and coincides with the period of theprevious two political administrations. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group-supported Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia expected in FY25
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Saudi Arabia ; Women ; Women and Labor
    Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Average growthin the GCC surpassed 7 percent in 2022 led by Saudi Arabia, its biggest economy, which was globally the fastest growing large economy. This growth was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil sectors. The latter was the result of persistent structural reforms undertaken by several GCC countries to improve the investment environment, promote flexible labor markets, and encourage women to join the labor market. GCC countries have used the windfall revenues from oil and gas to rebuild their buffers, pay down their debt, and shore-up their sovereign wealth funds. They have also sought to protect their vulnerable populations with continued subsidies on food, fuel, and utilities. Such policies have limited the impact of inflation on the domestic economy. Finally, GCC countries have also used their financial muscle to support economically weaker countries in the region. The stellar growth of 2022 is slowing down and growth is expected to moderate to 1 percent in 2023 before picking up again to 3.6 percent in 2024. The decline in economic activity in 2023 is driven by consecutive production cut decisions by OPEC+ in an effort to stabilize global oil prices. However, non-oil GDP continues its growth trajectory reaching 3.9 percent, resulting weaker integration between oil and non-oil sectors. To maintain this track record, GCC countries will need to continue to exercise prudent macroeconomic management, stay the course with structural reforms, and increase non-oil exports. Downside risks remain and it would be amiss not to mention them. The conflict in the Middle East presents major risks to the region and the GCC outlook if it extends or expands to include other regional players. While it is too early to quantify the impact and channels of the conflict, we already witness a 4 percentsurge in global oil futures. Although China is bouncing back after emerging from tight Covid-19 lockdowns, troubles in the real estate sector could still disrupt this trajectory. Persistent high inflation in the world's major economies has not been entirely vanquishedsuggesting a high interest rate environment for a longer period. Windfall revenues are anticipated as a result of higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a pivotal role in determining economicramifications not only on energy markets but also on regional financial and trade markets and overall economic confidence. The Special Focus section of the report discusses the power of structural reforms and social norms in advancing female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia experienced an unprecedented surge in female labor force participation since 2016 as a result of: (i) changing regulations and the removal of legal barriers, shifting social norms, (ii) the implementation of sound structural reforms and (iii) effective government communications. Saudi Arabia's success in increasing female labor force participation from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36 percent in 2023 offers important lessons to other countries in the region and the world
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; FDI ; Foreign Direct Investment ; FX ; Import Bans ; Improved Welfare ; Inflation ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Flows ; Private Sector Credit
    Abstract: Important reform decisions have been taken for Nigeria to avoid a fiscal cliff, and temporary compensation is being provided to help the poorest and most vulnerable households. In May and June 2023, the incoming administration undertook two critical policy decisions, which have resulted in price and exchange rate adjustments in the second half of the year. Targeted cash transfers are helping to cushion the adjustment to higher gasoline prices. On fiscal policy, budget planning for the next several years is consistent with sustaining the fiscal savings from the subsidy reform and mobilizing more revenues. However, the reforms are yet to be completed to fully realize the economic benefits. The FX market has remained volatile and is still in a period of continuing adjustment to the new policy approach. Revenue gains from the FX reform are visible, but more clarity is needed on oil revenues, including the fiscal benefits from the PMS subsidy reform. The economic outlook for Nigeria in the short to medium term hinges on the continuation and effectiveness of its macroeconomic stabilization agenda. Successful implementation of the initiated reforms will be the first step toward improving Nigeria's growth prospect. Moving decisively onto a higher long-term growth and poverty reduction path requires not only a stable macroeconomic environment but also concerted structural reforms
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Himelein, Kristen Implications of Choice of Second Stage Selection Method on Sampling Error and Non-Sampling Error: Evidence from an IDP Camp in South Sudan
    Keywords: Cross-Sectional Household Survey ; Displacement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Estimation ; Household Survey Design ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microeconomic Data ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development ; Survey and Sampling Methods ; Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement
    Abstract: The most common sampling approach for cross-sectional household surveys in the developing world is a stratified two-stage design, where the first stage is usually a sample from a census-based area frame, and the second stage is a random sample of households from each of the areas selected in the first stage. To overcome the problem of outdated census frame information, it is common to conduct a household listing operation within these areas. However, these listing operations come with severe implications for survey costs, timeframe, as well as quality. To avoid such second-stage operations, some surveys choose alternate approaches for their second-stage operation. This paper compares five of these approaches, namely, satellite mapping, segmentation, grid square, the north method, and random walk, through simulations based on a census conducted in a refugee camp in South Sudan. The paper compares the simulated approach with the estimates derived from the actual experiment and finds that all the resulting estimates are biased. Nevertheless, in addition to their practical challenges, the satellite mapping, segmentation, and grid square approaches exhibit the smallest bias. Although random walk shows the worst performance in the simulations, it regains ground in its implementation, especially vis-a-vis the north method, where implementation adds most significantly to its bias. In conclusion, most probability-based methods perform better than non-probability methods like random walk and are therefore preferrable when no traditional household listing can take place. Although it is important to consider the theoretical properties of sampling approaches, implementation is at least as important. Training, implementation modalities, and monitoring of compliance are key factors in the overall performance
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Floreani, Vincent A Costing Disasters: Hedonic Pricing, Neighborhood Effects, and the Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Earthquakes ; Environment ; Hedonic Price ; Housing Prices ; Imputed Rent ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Microsimulation ; Natural Disaster ; Natural Disasters ; Neighborhood Effects ; Spatial Economics ; Welfare
    Abstract: Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects
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  • 58
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Country Opinion Surveys
    Keywords: Accountability ; Attitudes ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Effectiveness ; Governance ; International Governmental Organizations ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Participations and Civic Engagement ; Social Development ; Stakeholder Engagement ; World Bank Group Knowledge ; World Bank Group Strategy
    Abstract: The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Mongolia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Mongolia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Mongolia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG's effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Mongolia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG's future role in Mongolia
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  • 59
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: CEMAC ; Country Level ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. The Economic Barometer also includes a focused technical section on a theme of regional relevance. This edition's special topic provides policy options for the CEMAC countries to take better advantage of future commodity price booms
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stacy, Brian Missing Evidence: Tracking Academic Data Use around the World
    Keywords: Academia ; Academic Research Article Survey ; Country Data Analysis ; Developing Country Research Study ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Language Processing ; Poverty and Policy ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country of subject, applying natural language processing to open-access research papers. The model's predictions produce country estimates of the number of articles using data that are highly correlated with a human-coded approach, with a correlation of 0.99. Analyzing more than 1 million academic articles, the paper finds that the number of articles on a country is strongly correlated with its gross domestic product per capita, population, and the quality of its national statistical system. The paper identifies data sources that are strongly associated with data-driven research and finds that availability of subnational data appears to be particularly important. Finally, the paper classifies countries into groups based on whether they could most benefit from increasing their supply of or demand for data. The findings show that the former applies to many low- and lower-middle-income countries, while the latter applies to many upper-middle- and high-income countries
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip The Climate Implications of Ending Global Poverty
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Co2 Emission Goals ; Environment and Poverty ; Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty and Climate Ambitions
    Abstract: Previous studies have explored potential conflicts between ending poverty and limiting global warming, by focusing on the carbon emissions of the world's poorest. This paper instead focuses on economic growth as the driver of poverty alleviation and estimates the emissions associated with the growth needed to eradicate poverty. With this framing, eradicating poverty requires not only increasing the consumption of poor people, but also the consumption of non-poor people in poor countries. Even in this more pessimistic framing, the global emissions increase associated with eradicating extreme poverty is small, at 2.37 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide in 2050, or 4.9 percent of 2019 global emissions. These additional emissions would not materially affect the global climate change challenge: global emissions would need to be reduced by 2.08 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year, instead of the 2.0 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year needed in the absence of any extreme poverty eradication. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency, and decarbonization of energy can significantly ease this trade-off: assuming the best historical performance in all countries, the additional emissions for poverty eradication are reduced by 90 percent. Therefore, the need to eradicate extreme poverty cannot be used as a justification for reducing the world's climate ambitions. When trade-offs exist, the eradication of extreme poverty can be prioritized with negligible emissions implications. The estimated emissions of eradicating poverty are 15.3 percent of 2019 emissions with the lower-middle-income poverty line at USD 3.65 per day and or 45.7 percent of 2019 emissions with the USD 6.85 upper-middle-income poverty line. The challenge to align the world's development and climate objectives is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing middle-income standards of living in a sustainable manner
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (68 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iacovone, Leonardo Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program
    Keywords: Bayesian Impact Evaluation ; Competition Policy ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Management ; Prior Elicitation ; Private Sector Development ; Randomized Experiment ; Social Policy Evaluation Method
    Abstract: Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cavanagh, Jack A Metadata Schema for Data from Experiments in the Social Sciences
    Keywords: Data Publicaiton ; Economic Theory and Research ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Data and Statistics ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Interoperable Social Sciences Data ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Metadata ; Population Sciences ; Program Evaluation ; Randomized Control Trial ; Secondary Research ; Social Sciences Research ; Technology Innovation ; Trial Registration
    Abstract: The use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the social sciences has greatly expanded, resulting in newly abundant, high-quality data that can be reused to perform methods research in program evaluation, to systematize evidence for policymakers, and for replication and training purposes. However, potential users of RCT data often face significant barriers to discovery and reuse. This paper proposes a metadata schema that standardizes RCT data documentation and can serve as the basis for one-or many, interoperable -data catalogs that make such data easily findable, searchable, and comparable, and thus more readily reusable for secondary research. The schema is designed to document the unique properties of RCT data. Its set of fields and associated encoding schemes (acceptable formats and values) can be used to describe any dataset associated with a social science RCT. The paper also makes recommendations for implementing a catalog or database based on this metadata schema
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Independent Evaluation Group Studies
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Impact ; Economic Insecurity ; Economic Stabilization ; Future Crisis ; Institutional Level ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Recovery ; Strategic Level
    Abstract: In the face of the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the World Bank delivered the largest crisis response in its history. This evaluation assesses the Bank Group's early response to the economic crises caused by COVID-19, and examines interventions over the 15 months from April 2020 through June 2021. The report considers two evaluation windows: the acute crisis phase (April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020) and the incipient recovery phase (January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2021). The objective of identifying the two windows was to assess whether the Bank Group internalized learning from the first period of the crisis to address the challenges that were materializing in the (incipient) recovery phase. The evaluation assesses the relevance of the Bank Group's interventions on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group targeted its early response based on clients' and sectors' needs, the extent to which the Bank Group used timely diagnostics and lessons from past crises to inform its early response, and the extent to which the early response leveraged the Bank Group's comparative advantages. The evaluation studies the quality of the Bank Group response on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group early response influenced client strategies; the extent to which the Bank Group coordinated its early response among its constituent institutions and with development partners; and how well the Bank Group early response handled monitoring, safeguards, and governance. The evaluation offers two near-term recommendations to strengthen the role of the Bank Group as a crisis responder, which is now more critical than ever
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Debt Management ; Economic Growth ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Developments ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Public Investment
    Abstract: Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan's growth exceeded expectations during the first half of 2022. Propelled by a strong rebound in international tourism, the full reopening of the economy, and improving exports, real GDP accelerated to 2.7 percent. However, the rebound in economic activity was only modestly reflected on labor market indicators with unemployment rates declining only gradually. Inflation has reached its highest level since 2018 but remains contained compared to regional peers, due to temporary fuel subsidies and a number of other price control measures introduced in 2022. Yet, the untargeted subsidy support came at a fiscal cost as fiscal consolidation adjustments have slowed down despite good tax performance. On the external front, elevated global commodity prices led to a significant rise in Jordan's import bill, outpacing the effect of the increased merchandise exports and tourism. Moreover, capital and financial inflows did not keep up with the widening current account deficit, resulting in a widening of the balance of payment deficit and a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, due to its substantial reserve buffers, the Central Bank's gross foreign reserves remained at an adequate level, while Jordan continues to retain investors' confidence and access to foreign financial markets. Jordan's economic recovery in 2022 is expected to be driven by a full rebound of the services sector, helped by the full reopening of the economy and a strong rebound in tourism. However, highly volatile global fuel and food prices are impacting both domestic consumption and the trade balance. Risks surrounding Jordan's outlook include a looming global economic downturn, prolongation of the global food and energy crisis, and the impact of higher borrowing costs and widening losses from state-owned water and electricity sectors on debt dynamics. The Special Focus highlights the role of public investment as a driver of growth, with a particular focus on its recent trends, as well as its efficiency and effectiveness. This is particularly relevant given Jordan's constrained fiscal envelope. Public investment spending has been suffering from a steady decline during the past two decades to meet the fiscal consolidation targets, consistent under-execution, large dependency on external aid and lack of budget for operation and maintenance cost. Its efficiency can be maximized by having in place financially realistic long-term strategic planning, transparent project selection and an adoption of a medium-term perspective. Purposefully integrating climate concerns in public investments would also advance the country's achievement of its climate targets
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Stamm, Kersten The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies
    Keywords: Developing Economies ; Emerging Market Growth ; Instititutions and Macroeconomy ; International Economics and Trade ; Investment Growth ; Investment Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades through the medium term. This subdued outlook follows a decade-long, geographically widespread investment growth slowdown before the COVID-19 pandemic. An empirical analysis covering 2000-21 finds that periods of strong investment growth were associated with strong real output growth, robust real credit growth, terms of trade improvements, growth in capital inflows, and investment climate reform spurts. Each of these factors has been decreasingly supportive of investment growth since the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Weak investment growth is a concern because it dampens potential growth, is associated with weak trade, and makes achieving the development and climate-related goals more difficult. Policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances, but include comprehensive fiscal and structural reforms, including repurposing of expenditure on inefficient subsidies. Given EMDEs' limited fiscal space, the international community will need to significantly increase international cooperation, official financing and grants, and leverage private sector financing for adequate investment to materialize
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (29 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio Institutional Trust, Perceptions of Distributive Unfairness, and Income across Salvadoran Municipalities
    Keywords: Attitude Towards Institutions ; Distributive Unfairness ; Governance ; Income and Government Satisfaction ; Income Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Preference for Democracy ; Trust
    Abstract: Using multiple waves of two public opinion surveys and a two-way fixed effect model, this paper analyzes how people's perceptions and attitudes towards public institutions shifted with the business cycle in El Salvador during 2004-2018. It finds that individuals' levels of trust toward both the president and the municipal government are positively associated with higher levels of income at the municipality level. Income is also a strong predictor of trust in mass media, confidence in the judicial system and, to a lesser extent, trust in the national legislature but income does not affect trust in the Catholic Church. The relationship between income and trust toward the president and municipalities masks a relevant heterogeneity from a rural-urban divide as well as from differences in municipal state capacity. Further, views of income distribution fairness as well as preferences for democracy are positively shaped by municipality-specific business cycles. In contrast, neither generalized trust nor satisfaction with democracy is empirically associated with income at the municipality level
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lokshin, Michael Toward Environmentally Sustainable Public Institutions: The Green Government IT Index
    Keywords: Environment ; Environmental Sustainability ; Government Institutions ; Green Agenda ; Green Government ; Informaiton and Communications Technology (ICT) ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new Green Government IT index to assess the environmentally responsible use of computers and other resources by the information technology departments of government institutions and nonprofit organizations. The methodology used in the paper relies on the established literature on index construction and the existing models for evaluating the environmental sustainability of information and communications technologies. The paper discusses the conceptual and theoretical foundations behind the new index and defines a set of verifiable, comparable, and transparent indicators for index construction. This framework allows for future index revisions as the green agenda evolves. The new index could be the first step before more resource-intensive assessments to inform an organization's long-term environmentally sustainable strategy
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  • 69
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict ; Damage Assessment ; Economic Assistance ; Economic Challenges ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Insecurity ; Fiscal Policies ; Food Inaccessibility ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Syria ; Trade
    Abstract: The World Bank's teams have been resorting to the use of a mix of standard tools and innovative geospatial and remote-based data sources (e.g., nighttime lights, shipping-position data, traffic congestion data, aviation statistics, mobile phone location data, remote sensing vegetation indices, and conflict intensity maps) to reveal economic trends and analyze unrecorded activities that are prominent in war-torn economies like Syria. Macroeconomic conditions in Syria have substantially deteriorated since the start of the war in Ukraine. Already very high, the vulnerability of Syrian households is on the rise. Subject to high uncertainty, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2023, following a 3.5 percent decline in 2022
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Amendola, Nicola Price Adjustments and Poverty Measurement
    Keywords: Cost-Of-Living Differences ; Household Income and Expenditure Survey ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Measurement ; Price Adjustment ; Price Indexes
    Abstract: Measuring poverty entails making interpersonal welfare comparisons, that should account for differences in prices faced by households, both over time and across space. This paper investigates the impact of seemingly minor differences in the practical implementation of price adjustments, by developing an analytical framework that is consistent with standard consumer theory and mindful of the data limitations faced by practitioners. The main result is at odds with common sense: even when multiple price indexes are available, say a food and a nonfood Consumer Price Index, it turns out that using a single price index, the total Consumer Price Index, to adjust the consumption aggregate is recommended. The practice of adjusting the components of the consumption aggregate separately, using matching deflators-food expenditure with the food index and nonfood expenditure with the nonfood index-can lead to a systematic bias in the welfare measure, and consequently in poverty and inequality measures. The direction of the bias can be easily predicted based on the price level and household consumption patterns. On the interplay between spatial and temporal deflation, the findings show that temporal deflation should be carried out before implementing adjustments to spatial cost-of-living differences. The paper illustrates these findings using the Islamic Republic of Iran's 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey: the bias in the headcount poverty rate due to incorrect deflation is substantive (5-10 percent for estimates at the national level, 15-20 percent in urban and rural areas, and more than 30 percent for district-level headcount rates). Higher-order Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures are even more affected
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  • 71
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Benetrix, Agustin The Elusive Link between FDI and Economic Growth
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Depth ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: This paper revisits the link between FDI and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Analysis of the early decades of the sample shows that there is no statistically significant correlation between FDI and growth for countries with average levels of education or financial depth. In line with previous contributions, this correlation is positive and statistically significant for countries with sufficiently well-developed financial sectors or high levels of human capital. However, the findings also show that the link between FDI and growth varies over time. For more recent periods, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and growth for the average country, with local conditions having a negative effect on this link. The paper also develops a novel instrument aimed at addressing the endogeneity of FDI inflows. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that the results are unlikely to be driven by endogeneity, and the results on the role of absorptive capacities may be due to the GVC revolution in the 1990s
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gatti, Roberta Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
    Keywords: Data Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Forecast Error ; GDP Growth Forecast ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Optimism ; Statistical Capacity
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth-are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank's forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund's January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country's Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Agnolucci, Paolo Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
    Keywords: Carbon Mitigation ; Carbon Tax ; Climate Change Economics ; Emissions Trading ; Fiscal Instrument ; Fossil Fuel Transition ; Fuel Subsidies ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development ; Total Carbon Price
    Abstract: While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing-such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms-remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal for carbon emissions and the incentive it creates This paper develops a methodology for calculating a total carbon price applied to carbon emissions in a sector, fuel, or the whole economy. It recognizes that rarely is a single carbon price applied across an economy; many direct carbon pricing instruments target specific sectors or even fuels, much like indirect taxes on fossil fuels; and carbon and fuel taxes can be substituted one for another. Tracking progress on carbon pricing thus requires following both kinds of price interventions, their coverage, and specific exemptions. This inclusive total carbon pricing measure can facilitate progress in discussions on minimum carbon price commitments and inform assessments of the pricing of carbon embodied in traded goods. Calculations across 142 countries from 1991 to 2021 indicate that although direct carbon pricing now covers roughly a quarter of global emissions, the global total carbon price is not that much higher than it was in 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. Indirect carbon pricing still comprises the lion's share of the global total carbon price, and it has stagnated. Taking these policy measures into account reveals that many developing countries-particularly net fuel importers-contribute substantially to global carbon pricing. Tackling fuel subsidy reform and pricing coal and natural gas emissions more fully would have a profound effect on aligning carbon prices across countries and sectors and with their climate costs
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Devarajan, Shantayanan Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models: Estimates for 191 Countries
    Keywords: Armington ; Consumption ; Econometric Estimate ; Export Elasticity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade Elasticities ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: Armington's insight that imports and domestically produced goods were imperfect substitutes has unleashed extensive estimates of the associated trade elasticity, primarily for developed countries. This notion of product differentiation, which extends symmetrically to exports and domestic goods, has underpinned trade-focused, computable general equilibrium models of developing countries, including the aggregate, compact version, the 1-2-3 model. Noting that estimates of trade elasticities for developing countries are few, this paper remedies the situation. Using the vector error correction model as the primary method and controlling for global trends and other factors, the analysis derives the long-run elasticity estimates for 191 countries, ranging from China (population of 1.4 billion) to Tuvalu (11,200), including 45 of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries and understudied countries such as Benin, the Republic of Congo, Niger, Fiji, Haiti, Kiribati, and Tajikistan. Import and export elasticities of high-income countries average about 1.4, reflecting the greater diversity of their economies; developing countries' elasticities average around 0.7 for imports and 0.6 for exports. Elasticities generally rise with per capita income. That the elasticity is greater than one for developed and less for developing countries implies asymmetric responses to shocks, which conforms to intuition and corroborates the analytical results from the 1-2-3 model
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  • 75
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Keywords: EAP ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector ; Technical Assistance
    Abstract: The overarching objective of the Seoul Center for Finance and Innovation partnership was to improve and develop financial and private sectors in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region by delivering better technical assistance and advisory services to EAP countries. To achieve this objective, the Seoul Center provides grants to provide demand-driven, priority technical assistance and support capacity-building needs in EAP client countries. Since 2012, a total of 32 KTF grants have been allocated to 10 EAP countries and 2 regions (EAP and Global) in three phases. This limited scope impact assessment was undertaken on behalf of the Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Seoul Center Korean Trust Fund (KTF) in accord with an agreed term of reference. The purpose of this assignment is to carry out an independent impact assessment of select East Asia Pacific (EAP) country-level technical assistance and advisory grant funded projects completed over ten years from 2012 through 2022. The assessment of results realized focused on fifteen country-level TA and advisory KTF grant funded activities concluded by end-2022
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: Cooperation ; Cross-Border ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth ; Engagement ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Integration
    Abstract: A key objective of the World Bank's South Asia Regional Integration, Cooperation and Engagement (RICE) approach is broadening evidence-based communication and outreach activities that will help strengthen the case for RICE and generate domestic demand. The 'Good Neighbours' series showcases successful cross-border stories demonstrating regional cooperation to build support for regionalism in South Asia
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Catchment Areas ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Roads ; Vulnerability Assessment
    Abstract: The Kingdom of Lesotho is a landlocked country in southern Africa. Large pockets of the population reside along the Senqu River Valley in the south-eastern reaches of the country, and some of the roads traverse this river to connect to the mountainous areas. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change negatively impacts Lesotho's road network. Sustained land degradation, soil erosion, and increased demand on ecosystem services threatens infrastructure and the health of Lesotho's natural ecosystems, including wetlands. The primary aim of this study was to undertake a review of existing frameworks for climate and environment vulnerability assessments for roads and to adapt these to the Lesotho context in line with Southern African Development Community (SADC) protocol on transport, the National Strategic Development Plan of Lesotho, and the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) Design Guidelines. The adapted climate and environmental risk framework then formed the basis for developing a climate change risk and vulnerability and assessment methodology/tool
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  • 78
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Goes, Carlos Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks
    Keywords: Gender and Economics ; Gender and Social Policy ; Gender Inequality ; Gender Monitoring and Evaluation ; Gender Segmentation ; Gendered Poverty ; International Trade ; Jobs ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Gender segmentation in labor markets shapes the local effects of international trade. This paper develops a theory that embeds trade in gender-segmented labor markets and shows that in this framework, foreign demand shocks may increase or decrease the female-to-male employment ratio. If a foreign demand shock from a relevant market happens in a female-intensive (male-intensive) sector, the model predicts that the female-to-male employment ratio should increase (decrease). The paper then uses plausibly exogenous variation in the exposure of Tunisian local labor markets to foreign demand shocks and shows that the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction. In Tunisia, a country with a high degree of gender segmentation in the labor markets, foreign demand shocks have been relatively larger in male-intensive sectors. This induced a decrease in the female-to-male employment ratio, with households likely substituting female for male labor supply
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
    Keywords: Disaster Risk Finance ; DRF ; Environment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Disaster Risk Modeling ; Insurance Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters ; Public Financial Management
    Abstract: Historical losses due to hurricanes have been significant in Sint Maarten (SXM) since 1960, with the most severe impact having been experienced in 2017 following Hurricane Irma. The objective of this report is to provide recommendations to the Government of Sint Maarten (GoSXM) for the formulation of a country-specific comprehensive disaster risk financing (DRF) strategy based on the assessment of the legislative, financial management, fiscal, and insurance market environment in SXM. It is envisioned that this report will be used as a planning tool for the potential development of an all-encompassing DRF strategy that would equip the GoSXM with information and instruments to manage contingent liabilities posed by disasters
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wang, Dieter Could Sustainability-Linked Bonds Incentivize Lower Deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon?
    Keywords: Adaptation To Climate Change ; Amazon Deforestation ; Ambitiousness ; Benchmarking ; Economic Investment and Savings ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Feasibiity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Performance Based Financing ; Sustainability-Linked Bonds
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new relative evaluation and benchmarking framework for performance linked financing instruments. It argues that the carrots and sticks of sustainability-linked bonds should not use key performance indicators which are solely tied to outcomes. Instead, they should be based on its issuer's level of performance with respect to a target. The paper defines performance as the part of the outcome that the issuer can influence. Otherwise, the issuer may be rewarded or penalized for factors outside their control. In such a case, principal-agent theory would predict a dilution of the performance-based instrument's incentives. This framework is then applied to deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon and estimate performance by accounting for the real effective exchange rate, global commodity prices, and prevalent deforestation trends. The results show that policy efforts helped lower deforestation in the 2000s, even after accounting for external factors. The trend reversal and acceleration in deforestation since 2012 are partly due to weaker policy and macroeconomic factors. Based on these results, the paper proposes an Amazon sustainability-linked bond, which could allow for a more effective mechanism to incentivize policy efforts. The paper also introduces the feasibility and ambitiousness matrix to set sustainability performance targets. The matrix is used to define the terms low-hanging fruits and long shots and to discuss why such targets are subject to the risk of greenwashing
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (81 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Marguerie, Alicia Savings Facilitation or Capital Injection? Impacts and Spillovers of Livelihood Interventions in Post-Conflict Cate D'Ivoire
    Keywords: Cash Grant ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Inclusion ; Economic Investment and Savings ; Graduation Programs ; Livilihood Interventions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Post-Conflict Intervention ; Poverty ; Savings ; Social Development ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Transfers
    Abstract: Policy makers grapple with the optimal design of multidimensional strategies to improve poor households' livelihoods. To address financial constraints, are capital injections needed, or is savings mobilization sufficient This paper tests the direct effects and local spillovers of three instruments to relax financial constraints, each combined with micro-entrepreneurship training. "Cash grants" and "cash grants with repayment" directly inject capital, while "village savings and loan associations" (VSLAs) promote more efficient group saving. The randomized controlled trial took place in western regions of Cote d'Ivoire that were affected by a post-electoral crisis in 2011 and an earlier conflict. The interventions had differential effects on the dynamics of savings and productive asset accumulation. The cash grant modalities generated investments in startup capital, although nearly 30 percent of the grant was saved. In contrast, village savings and loan associations did not increase total savings but gradually induced investments, so that productive assets caught up with cash grant recipients after 15 months. Positive local spillovers on savings and independent activities were also observed. Yet, investments in independent activities were not sufficient to increase profits, possibly because they were limited due to high precautionary saving motives in the post-conflict study setting
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (51 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Baez, Javier E A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts: Evidence from Turkiye
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Growth ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Data on National Income ; Economic Development Analysis ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth Cycles ; Inequality ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Analyses ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measurement of National Income ; Poverty Reduction ; Regional Economic Activity ; Spatial Inequality
    Abstract: This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Turkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector's gross value added during the post-2009 rebound-consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity-with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lain, Jonathan Seasonal Deprivation in the Sahel is Large, Widespread, and can be Anticipated
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Economic Insecurity ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Rainfed Agriculture ; Seasonal Poverty VARIATION ; Seasonality ; Welfare
    Abstract: Shocks and seasonality may have profound effects on poor households' wellbeing, especially in contexts like the Sahel where livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Understanding how seasonal variation affects Sahelian households is therefore essential for guiding policies that jointly seek to address chronic poverty, seasonality, and unexpected shocks. This paper uses harmonized household survey data from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Senegal, collected in two distinct waves in 2018 and 2019, to examine the extent of seasonal deprivation in the Sahel. These data reveal significant seasonal variation in poverty and wellbeing. Mean real monetary consumption is around 10.5 percent lower in the lean season. Moreover, rather than representing a reduction in dietary diversity, this drop is concentrated in staple foods (especially cereals), implying that seasonality brings about extreme forms of deprivation. Welfare losses may begin early in the lean season, even as early as April. When the data were collected in 2018/19, the climatic conditions were relatively benign and the security situation was more stable than today, so the effects of seasonality shown in this paper likely represent a lower bound. On policy, although initiatives currently focus on responding to unpredictable shocks, seasonal food insecurity could be better tackled by expanding social protection and providing regular transfers early in the lean season, when prices are lower and fewer households have succumbed to extreme deprivation. Seasonal variation happens every year and more can be done to support Sahelian households if there is information on how it will perennially threaten their wellbeing
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  • 84
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Earthquake ; Economic Assistance ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Impact ; Environment ; Humanitarian Constraints ; Inflation ; Limited Response ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disasters
    Abstract: Twelve years into a devastating civil war, a one-in-two-century earthquake devastated northwestern Syria. The 7.6 Richter scale shock was the deadliest in Syria after the one that hit Aleppo in 1822. Using novel data sources, such as big data, this Syria Economic Monitor analyzes what happens to a conflict-affected economy in the months following a large natural disaster. The earthquake created large human losses and physical damages in the most contested areas of the country. The earthquake also had significant socioeconomic impacts, exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities. However, funding shortfall and humanitarian constraints impede response efforts. As a consequence, economic contraction in Syria is likely to deepen further post-earthquake
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Policy and Regulation ; Decntralization ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: The latest Taking Stock report shows that Vietnam's economic growth slowed from 8% in 2022 to 3.7% in the first half of 2023. It forecasts a moderate growth of 4.7% in 2023, gradually accelerating to 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. However, the economy faces external and domestic headwinds. Vietnam has ample fiscal space and a proactive fiscal policy supporting short-term demand, removing barriers to the implementation of public investment, and addressing infrastructure constraints can help the economy achieve these targets and promote long-term growth. The report's special chapter studies Vietnam's public investment management and how it can contribute to the goal of becoming a high income economy. To harness the power of public investment, the report recommends that Vietnam sustain its level of investment, improve the quality of the proposed project, and address deficiencies in public investment management and inter-governmental fiscal institutions
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  • 86
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (72 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arroyo-Marioli, Francisco Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Commodity Price Forecasting ; Contingency Planning ; Economic Forecasting ; Energy ; Energy and Natural Resources ; Futures Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Metals Price ; Natural Resource Revenue ; Oil Price Forecasting
    Abstract: Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline projections for the global prices of the commodities they rely on and a sense of the risks around such baseline projections. This paper presents a model suite to prepare well-founded forecasts for the global prices for oil and six industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc). The model suite adapts six approaches used in the literature and tests their forecast performance. Broadly speaking, futures prices or bivariate correlations performed well at short horizons, and consensus forecasts and a large-scale macroeconometric model performed well at long horizons. The strength of Bayesian vector autoregression models lies in generating forecast scenarios. The sizable forecast error bands generated by the model suite highlight the need for policy makers to engage in careful contingency planning for higher or lower prices
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Eslava, Marcela Business Size, Development, and Inequality in Latin America: A Tale of one Tail
    Keywords: Business Size ; Developing Economies Business Data ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Firm-Level Datasets ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Micro-Enterprises ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Self-Employment
    Abstract: Using official employment surveys for 45 advanced economies and Latin American countries, this paper shows that the positive cross-country correlation between business size and GDP per capita is tighter than previously found using firm-level datasets and finds a close negative business size-Gini relationship. The paper also finds a closer connection between individual income and business size for workers in less developed countries compared with those in advanced economies. Because employment data address the bias against the smallest productive units that characterize firm-level datasets, our approach uniquely assesses and highlights the dominance of the left tail of the business size distribution in less developed countries
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  • 88
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2209
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Covid-19 ; Economic Investment and Savings ; FIP ; Forest Investment Program ; Forestry Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic
    Abstract: With the COVID-19 pandemic, the development context for the world is fundamentally challenged in many ways. The pandemic has taken a drastic human toll, and its global-scale economic and social impacts affected rural development work focused on the most poor and vulnerable populations. It has also highlighted the increasing need to invest in natural climate solutions that protect and restore critical ecosystems, support climate stability and ecosystem resilience, and help people access livelihood opportunities. This report provides an in-depth portfolio analysis of WB-implemented FIP and DGM projects during the pandemic, gathering information from documents and directly from stakeholders involved in these projects on the impacts of the pandemic during their preparation and implementation, finding trends in delays in project activities, and identifying coping mechanisms used to overcome the challenges resulting from the pandemic. For example, some projects have shifted activities requiring in-person engagement, such as training and workshops, to a virtual format. Other projects use electronic monitoring and data collection tools to follow up on activity implementation. Finally, this report provides a few general lessons for the CIF program, WB-financed operations, donors, and other external international development partners. Although the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a challenge, authors now hope, having already experienced it for roughly three years, to learn from the various adaptation measures implemented by the projects, for application to future shocks
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2184
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Adaptation to Climate Change ; Digital Sector ; Economic Diversification ; Energy Supply ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Regional Trade Integration ; Taxation and Fiscal Policy
    Abstract: Economic Diversification in the DRC is hindered by a business environment and key regulatory and fiscal constraints that are not conducive to private sector-led growth. Policies aimed to address the main bottlenecks hindering sustainable and inclusive growth include: i) improving business regulation; ii) promoting access to digital, electricity, and financing; iii) addressing inefficient taxation and fiscal policy challenges; iv) encouraging fiscal decentralization; and v) attracting value chain development. The two case studies discussed in complementary reports are intended to better illustrate the opportunities and challenges described in the Country Economic Memorandum and considered important for economic diversification and job creation through structural transformation and stronger trade and regional integration. The focus is on two key potential growth-driving sectors (mining and agribusiness) that offer substantial opportunities for expansion in the context of global energy transition, food insecurity, and further regional integration. While opportunities and constraints specific to the EV battery-related mining and cassava value chain are presented (and include a climate dimension), most of the challenges and recommendations could also apply to several other products or sectors of the economy (e.g., maize or any manufactured or processed product). The purpose of the illustrative case studies is to highlight how the business environment in general is not attractive to private investment, SME expansion, or product competitiveness
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (56 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brunckhorst, Ben Tracing Pandemic Impacts in the Absence of Regular Survey Data: What have we Learned from the World Bank's High-Frequency Phone Surveys?
    Keywords: Covid-19 Impacts ; Gender ; Gender and Public Expenditures ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; High-Frequency Phone Survey ; Household Questionnaire Design ; Household Welfare ; Inequality ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Survey Method
    Abstract: The World Bank's High-Frequency Phone Surveys were deployed to support the monitoring of household welfare during the COVID-19 pandemic, when most of the regular household survey data collection was suspended. This paper reviews the analytical insights gained from the High-Frequency Phone Survey data, including uneven dynamics of household welfare during the pandemic across and within countries, as well as novel applications to simulate estimates of poverty and intergenerational mobility following the pandemic. The paper further derives lessons from the data collection experience. First, phone surveys, while inexpensive and quick, require reliable sampling frames. The predominant sampling strategies-previous household survey and random digit dialing-each have pros and cons in terms of representativeness, non-response, and post-survey adjustments. Second, on questionnaire design, country customization needs to be carefully balanced against standardization when cross-country comparisons are likely to be important. Finally, baseline metrics are critical for crisis monitoring; this requires more frequent welfare monitoring and better alignment of questions in phone surveys and existing data sources. While phone surveys can be a reliable toolkit for researchers and governments, more research is needed on key questions related to the survey mode effect, and the implications of different sampling frames and questionnaire design
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cortina, Juan J The Internationalization of China's Equity Markets
    Keywords: Emerging Markets ; Equity Financing ; Equity Issuance Activity ; Equity Market Liberalization ; Firm Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Investors ; International Economics and Trade ; International Investors ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Stock Connect
    Abstract: The internationalization of China's equity markets started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms' shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper documents the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper shows significant increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed firms and connected firms, with sizable aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests that the rise in firms' equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. Foreign ownership of Chinese firms increased once the locally issued shares became part of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index in 2018
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  • 92
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Debt Indicators ; Education ; Environment ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; GHG ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health Insurance ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Indicators ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2119
    Keywords: Debt Indicators ; Developing Countries ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal Indicators ; GDP ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Indicators
    Abstract: This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the South Asia region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and where available, other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank's most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region
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  • 94
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2163
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Carbon Neutrality ; Climate Change ; Education Finance ; Educational Institutions and Facilities ; Energy ; Environment ; Low-Carbon ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resilience
    Abstract: The Cambodia Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) provides analysis and recommendations on how Cambodia can achieve sustained development while responding to climate change and the low-carbon transition. Cambodia has high development aspirations, aiming to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. Achieving these goals will not be easy and will require a more inclusive, diversified, and productive economy. Climate change could amplify existing development challenges, with potentially sizable impacts on growth, trade, debt, and poverty reduction, as Cambodia faces one of the world's highest levels of exposure to floods and extreme heat. However, building climate resilience also offers an opportunity, not only to mitigate climate risks, but also to concurrently further development outcomes, as this report finds that adaptation measures in Cambodia have large development co-benefits. Moreover, Cambodia has made ambitious pledges in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and in its Long-term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality (LTS4CN). Delivering these commitments will require careful policy choices to mitigate transition risks and seize development opportunities. Finally, as a small, open economy highly dependent on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), Cambodia will be highly affected by the accelerated decarbonization and changing consumption and production patterns in the rest of the world. With the right policy choices and a vibrant private sector, this could offer opportunities for export diversification, job creation, and growth
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Nana, Ibrahim The Trade-Growth Nexus: Evidence of Causality from Innovative Instruments for Trade
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; GDP Growth and Trade ; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ; Instrumental Variable ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Trade Investment
    Abstract: During the past decades, extensive literature has emphasized the role of both international trade and openness in fostering economic growth. Endogeneity bias is a nagging challenge for any empirical attempt to study the causal relationship between trade and economic growth. This study contributes to the existing stock of knowledge and helps to address these challenges by introducing new instrumental variables for trade. The study samples 197 countries over 1970-2020. The findings suggest that international trade has a positive and significant effect on gross domestic product per capita, which tends to be higher for emerging markets and development economies. Thus, the study provides an enhanced empirical foundation for the expectation that investments made to support trade are also good for economic growth, especially in emerging markets
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  • 96
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Londono-Velez, Juliana Revealing 21% of GDP in Hidden Assets: Evidence from Argentina
    Keywords: Amnesties ; Enforcement ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Hidden Assets ; Law and Development ; Law Finance and Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Offshore Wealth ; Tax Collection Policy ; Tax Compliance ; Tax Evasion ; Tax Havens ; Tax Law
    Abstract: Despite substantial offshore tax evasion, Argentines disclosed assets worth 21 percent of GDP under a tax amnesty in 2016. This paper studies how enforcement initiatives impact individuals' tax behavior, tax progressivity, and revenue collection. Offshore tax evasion is concentrated among the wealthiest 0.1 percent of adults. Tax compliance improved, expanding the tax bases for both wealth tax and capital income tax, especially at the top. The subsequent tax hike on foreign assets in 2019 boosted tax progressivity, raising the effective tax rate for the wealthiest 0.1 percent of adults, and established Argentina's wealth tax as one of the most successful globally in revenue generation
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Winkler, Deborah Linking Trade to Jobs, Incomes, and Activities: New Stylized Facts for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Employment ; Employment Sectors ; General Manufacturing ; Global Value Chains ; Global Value Chains and Business Clustering ; Industry ; International Economics and Trade ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Occupations ; Trade Facilitation
    Abstract: Trade expansion can create more and better jobs. This paper revisits the linkages between trade and jobs, focusing on employment, labor incomes, and job activities across a large sample of countries and sectors over 1995 to 2018. Instrumental variables regressions and new input-output measures of jobs and activities in exports highlight several patterns: Exports and especially imports of intermediate inputs are associated with more jobs and higher incomes, while final imports show weaker correlations. Manufacturing has the biggest potential for job and income creation both directly and indirectly in supplying sectors. As countries move from specialization in commodities to limited manufacturing to advanced manufacturing and services global value chains, export-employment and export-income elasticities increase. Global value chain-intensive developing countries tend to have larger shares of production activities in exports compared to resource-intensive countries. As countries get richer, nonproduction activities in exports, such as support, engineering, and managerial services, become increasingly important. Finally, the paper explores the role of policy for the export job share across countries
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  • 98
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (12 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Is there Still a Role for Direct Government Support to Firms in Developing Countries?
    Keywords: Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Firm Support ; Green Growth Agenda ; Impact Evaluation ; Industrial Economics ; Industrial Policy ; Industry ; Macroeconomic Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subsidized Loans
    Abstract: Should governments in developing countries directly support firms with policies such as grants, subsidized loans, and training and consulting programs, or should they instead just aim to enact sensible regulatory and macroeconomic policies and not attempt to engage in industrial policy While industrial policy has gained renewed attention in developed economies, it faces considerable skepticism in developing countries scarred by previous experiences and facing limited fiscal space. This paper discusses the rationale for government involvement, and then lessons from a recent research agenda in development economics on how to target these programs, on whether they induce firms to undertake additional activities, on avoiding political capture, and on how these interact with competition. This work shows that these policies can deliver some of their promised benefits, but that there is still much to learn and the need for systematic and serious attempts at prospective impact evaluation as new policies are launched
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Access To Finance ; Armed Conflict ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Development ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Middle East ; Money and Banking ; Recession
    Abstract: Lebanon is hit by yet another crisis: the spillover effects of the conflict in the Middle East. While the country remains mired in political and institutional vacuum, and a crippling socioeconomic crisis for over four years, it has now been hit by another large shock: fear that the current conflict centered in Gaza could escalate further into Lebanon. By 2022 and early 2023, the economy was able to find a temporary bottom following years of sharp contraction, thanks to tourism and sizeable remittances. The temporary bottoming out helped the exchange rate to also stabilize temporarily. With the onset of the current conflict, Lebanon's economy is projected to be back in recession in 2023. This special focus assesses the impact of the current conflict and its spillovers on Lebanon's economy. Assuming that the current situation of containment of military confrontation to the southern borders persists, the economy is estimated to contract in 2023, primarily due to the shock to tourism spending
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
    Keywords: Catastrophe Risk Financing Strategy ; Disaster Risk Insurance ; Disaster Risk Strategy ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Hazard Risk Management ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Disaster Preparedness ; Ukaid ; Urban Development
    Abstract: The objective of this report is to make recommendations for the Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica (GoCD) for the formulation of a country-specific comprehensive disaster risk financing (DRF) strategy, based on the assessment of the legislative, financial management, fiscal, and insurance market environment in Dominica. The key activities of the present review are twofold: (a) to review the existing data that would inform the quantification of Dominica's contingent liabilities to natural hazards, as well as current practices in DRF and (b) to conduct a review of the existing public financial management (PFM) and insurance market with respect to DRF by reviewing laws, regulations, practices, existing protocols and systems, and macroeconomic conditions. This report is envisioned to be used as a planning tool for the potential development of a comprehensive DRF strategy that would equip the Ministry of Finance and Investment (MoF) with information and instruments to manage contingent liabilities posed by natural hazards. This report presents recommendations for a cost-effective DRF strategy in Dominica, drawing heavily on international experience, country-specific information, and similar conditions in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with limited fiscal space. These complementary resources for a national DRF strategy are based on a preliminary fiscal risk analysis and a review of the current budget management of disasters in Dominica. The report benefits from the international experience of the World Bank and the approach outlined in its operational DRF and insurance framework, which has assisted several countries worldwide, including in the Caribbean (Belize, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, and so on) in the design and implementation of sovereign catastrophe risk financing strategies. This report tailors the approach to the institutional, social, and economic context of Dominica
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