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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    International Financial Reporting Standards (Fifth Edition) : A Practical Guide (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378991
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (334 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Abstract: International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in a business situation can have a significant effect on the financial results and position of a division or an entire business enterprise. International Financial Reporting Standards: A Practical Guide gives private or public sector executives, managers, and financial analysts without a strong background in accounting the tools they need to participate in discussions and decisions on the appropriateness or application of IFRS. Each chapter summarizes an International Financial Reporting Standard, following a consistent structure: Problems addressed by the IFRS Scope of the Standard Key concepts and definitions Accounting treatment Presentation and disclosure Financial analysis and interpretation
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7727-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Little Data Book on Information and Communication Technology 2009 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378588
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (230 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Development Indicators
    Abstract: This new addition to the 'Little DataBook' series presents at-a-glance tables for over 140 economies showing the most recent national data on key indicators of information and communications technology (ICT), including access, quality, affordability, efficiency,sustainability, and applications
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7857-1
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Monitoring Report 2009 : A Development Emergency (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821378601
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (219 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Global Monitoring Report
    Abstract: A Development Emergency: the title of this year's Global Monitoring Report, the sixth in an annual series, could not be more apt. The global economic crisis, the most severe since the Great Depression, is rapidly turning into a human and development crisis. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have the least cushion to withstand events. The crisis, coming on the heels of the food and fuel crises, poses serious threats to their hard-won gains in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. It is pushing millions back into poverty and putting at risk the very survival of many. The prospect of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant. A global crisis must be met with a global response. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. At the same time, strong and urgent actions are needed to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries and help them restore strong growth while protecting the poor. Global Monitoring Report 2009, prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, provides a development perspective on the global economic crisis. It assesses the impact on developing countries, their growth, poverty reduction, and other MDGs. And it sets out priorities for policy response, both by developing countries themselves and by the international community. This report also focuses on the ways in which the private sector can be better mobilized in support of development goals, especially in the aftermath of the crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7859-5
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The World Bank Annual Report 2009 : Year in Review (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821381472
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: World Bank Annual Report
    Abstract: The World Bank Annual Report 2009, Year in Review, explores the impact of the global financial and economic crisis in developing countries, and fast-track funding and programs that can help member countries withstand the debacle. In addition, new and ongoing programs and projects in health, climate change, infrastructure, and several other areas are highlighted. A new feature this year is personal-impact stories for each region, relaying the positive effects of World Bank assistance on individuals
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7946-2
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    2009 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness : Achieving Sustainable Development (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821381366
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (147 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Series Statement: Independent Evaluation Group Studies
    Abstract: The Annual Review of Development Effectiveness 2009 presents evidence on the World Bank’s efforts in two areas. Part I tracks the outcomes of Bank projects and country programs and the evolution of monitoring and evaluation (M&E). Part II examines the Bank’s support for environmentally sustainable development compatible with economic growth and poverty reduction. The Bank’s project performance rebounded in 2008, allaying concerns about the weakened performance in 2007. As previous ARDEs have shown, project performance has been improving gradually for 15 years according to the traditional measure -- percent of projects with satisfactory (versus unsatisfactory) outcomes. But IEG ratings of M&E quality for completed projects indicate considerable room for progress. Information to assess impacts continues to be lacking although preliminary data suggests improvements in baseline data collection. Bank support for the environment has recovered since 2002 due to new sources of concessional finance. The outcomes of environment projects have improved in recent years. A growing number of regional projects are addressing the shared use of water resources. New global partnerships are deepening the Bank’s involvement in climate change issues. But M&E remains weak: three-quarters of environment-related projects - those managed by sectors other than environment - lack reporting of environmental outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8135-9
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal Health of Selected IndianCities (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bandyopadhyay, Simanti Fiscal Health of Selected IndianCities
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the fiscal problems faced by five urban agglomerations in India, namely, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai, and Pune. It analyzes the fiscal health of the five urban agglomerations, quantifies their revenue capacities and expenditure needs, and draws policy recommendations on the means to reduce the gaps between revenue raising capacities and expenditure needs. The main findings suggest that, except for five small urban local bodies in Hyderabad, the others are not in a position to cover their expenditure needs by their present revenue collections. All the urban agglomerations have unutilized potential for revenue generation; however, with the exception of Hyderabad, they would fail to cover their expenditure needs even if they realized their revenue potential. Except in Chennai, larger corporations are more constrained than smaller urban local bodies. The paper recommends better utilization of "own revenue" through improved administration of property taxes, implementation of other taxes, and collection of user charges. It recommends that state governments should explore the option of allowing local bodies to piggyback a small proportion on their value-added tax collections. Another way to reduce the fiscal gap would be to earmark a portion of the sales proceeds from land and housing by state governments sold through their development agencies for improvements in urban infrastructure. The paper also recommends that the State Finance Commissions should develop appropriate norms for estimating expenditure needs, based on which transfers from the state to local governments can be decided
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4863
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Determinants of Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-Credit Groups (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (13 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Deininger, Klaus Determinants of Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-Credit Groups
    Abstract: Despite their potential importance and ease of modification, impacts of monitoring and loan recovery arrangements on micro-credit groups' repayment performance have rarely been studied. Data on 3,350 expired group loans in 300 Indian villages highlight that regular monitoring and audits, high repayment frequency, consumption smoothing support through rice credit, and having group savings deposited with the lender all significantly increase repayment rates. Estimated magnitudes of their effects vastly exceed those of members' socio-economic characteristics. Significantly lower repayment on loans originating in externally provided grant resources suggests that stringent monitoring will be essential for these to have a sustainable impact
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4885
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Working Long Hours and Having No Choice : Time Poverty in Guinea (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bardasi, Elena Working Long Hours and Having No Choice
    Abstract: This paper provides a new definition of 'time poverty' as working long hours and having no choice to do otherwise. An individual is time poor if he/she is working long hours and is also monetary poor, or would fall into monetary poverty if he/she were to reduce his/her working hours below a given time poverty line. Thus being time poor results from the combination of two conditions. First, the individual does not have enough time for rest and leisure once all working hours (whether spent in the labor market or doing household chores such as cooking, and fetching water and wood) are accounted for. Second, the individual cannot reduce his/her working time without either increasing the level of poverty of his/her household (if the household is already poor) or leading his/her household to fall into monetary poverty due to the loss in income or consumption associated with the reduction in working time (if the household is not originally poor). The paper applies the concepts of the traditional poverty literature to the analysis of time poverty and presents a case study using data for Guinea in 2002-03. Both univariate and multivariate results suggest that women are significantly more likely to be time poor than men
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4961
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stigma and the Take-Up of Social Programs (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ewoudou, Jacques Stigma and the Take-Up of Social Programs
    Abstract: Empirical studies send mixed messages as to the magnitude of social stigma associated with the take-up of social transfers and the impact of stigma on take-up. These mixed signals may be related to the fact that stigma and program participation are likely to be jointly determined. If there is a high (low) degree of participation in a program, stigma is likely to be lower (higher) due at least in part to that high (low) degree of participation. This is because the more eligible persons participate, the less one can single out specific individuals for stigma because they use the program. This note suggests this theoretically with a simple model showing that we may have in an idealized setting two equilibria: one with stigma and zero participation in a social program, and one with perfect participation and no stigma
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4962
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fomby, Thomas The Growth Aftermath of Natural Disasters
    Abstract: This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to four types of natural disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast, floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5002
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Implications for Climate-Change Policy of Research On Cooperation in Social Dilemmas (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Irwin, Timothy Implications for Climate-Change Policy of Research On Cooperation in Social Dilemmas
    Abstract: The problem of climate change seems to be a tragedy of the commons: despite the global benefits of reducing green-house gas emissions, no individual has any incentive to reduce his or her own emissions. Yet many people are making efforts to reduce emissions and putting pressure on businesses and governments to do the same. Although the size of these efforts is unclear, their very existence might seem puzzling. The efforts are consistent, however, with some theoretical and empirical evidence about the extent of cooperation in other social dilemmas. This evidence does not imply that greenhouse-gas emissions will be reduced to desirable levels, but it does suggest that the potential for voluntary cooperation should not be ignored. It also suggests that cooperation can be promoted by (i) allowing cooperators to punish defectors without withdrawing their own cooperation; (ii) publicly emphasizing the social benefits and extent of cooperation and the social norms that require it; and (iii) improving the quantity and timeliness of public information about cooperation and defection
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5006
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Crisis in Latin America : Infrastructure Investment, Employment and the Expectations of Stimulus (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Schwartz, Jordan Z Crisis in Latin America
    Abstract: Infrastructure investment is a central part of the stimulus plans of the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region as it confronts the growing financial crisis. This paper estimates the potential effects on direct, indirect, and induced employment for different types of infrastructure projects with LAC-specific variables. The analysis finds that the direct and indirect short-term employment generation potential of infrastructure capital investment projects may be considerable - averaging around 40,000 annual jobs per US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5009
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Subnational Credit Ratings : A Comparative Review (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Liu, Lili Subnational Credit Ratings
    Abstract: This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the intergovernmental fiscal system are among the most critical rating criteria. Implicit and contingent liabilities are integral to the rating process. Indirect debt instruments including off-balance-sheet financing create fiscal risks. The ongoing financial crisis has reinforced the rating focus on the management of liquidity, debt structure, and off-balance-sheet liabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5013
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Banking Crises and Exports : Lessons From the Past (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Iacovone, Leonardo Banking Crises and Exports
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of banking crises on manufacturing exports exploiting the fact that sectors differ in their needs for external financing. Relying on data from 23 banking crises episodes involving both developed and developing countries during the period 1980-2000 the authors separate the impact of banking crises on export growth from that of other exogenous shocks (i.e. demand shocks). Their findings show that during a crisis the export of sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors. However, this result holds only for sectors depending more heavily on banking finance as opposed to inter-firm finance. Furthermore, sectors characterized by higher degree of assets tangibility appear to be more resilient in the face of a banking crisis. The effect of the banking crises on exports is robust and additional to external demand shocks. The effect of the latter is independent and additional to that of a banking shock, and is particularly significant for sectors producing durable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5016
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Determinants of Globalization and Growth Prospects for Sub-Saharan African Countries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fofack, Hippolyte Determinants of Globalization and Growth Prospects for Sub-Saharan African Countries
    Abstract: Over the decades leading to the global financial crisis, the world witnessed a deepening integration of world economies, irrespective of a country’s geographical location on the spherical space. This process of increasing interdependence of world economies, most notably illustrated by the scale of financial flows and movements of goods and services now termed globalization, has been facilitated by research and development and advances in technology, especially in the area of information and communication technology. In spite of its global nature, its expected benefits have not been uniformly distributed, however. This paper shows that the countries and regions that are driving the process of knowledge creation and production of high-tech and manufactured goods, building on frontier technology, are benefiting the most from globalization, increasingly acting as drivers and relegating Sub-Saharan Africa to the end-user status. In this process, the income gap between Sub-Saharan Africa and the globalizers has increased even more. However, the paper also shows that raising the level of technological endowment in Sub-Saharan Africa to that of developed countries could go a long way to bridge Africa's output gaps and improve its export performance in the new globalization landscape of the post-financial crisis era
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5019
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Many More Infants Are Likely To Die in Africa As A Result of the Global Financial Crisis? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Friedman, Jed How Many More Infants Are Likely To Die in Africa As A Result of the Global Financial Crisis?
    Abstract: The human consequences of the current global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe yet few studies have quantified such impact. The authors estimate the additional number of infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa likely due to the crisis and discuss possible mitigation strategies. They pool birth-level data as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa nations. This results in a data set of 639,000 births to 264,000 women in 30 countries. The authors use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infant’s likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. They then apply this estimated likelihood to expected growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. At current growth projections, their estimates suggest there will be 30,000 - 50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these additional deaths are likely to be poorer children (born to women in rural areas and lower education levels) and are overwhelmingly female. If the crisis continues to worsen the number of deaths may grow much larger, especially those to girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction should be considered. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls may be particularly beneficial
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5023
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  • 17
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    Online Resource
    Africa and Arab Gulf States : Divergent Development Paths and Prospects for Convergence (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fofack, Hippolyte Africa and Arab Gulf States
    Abstract: In spite of the similarities between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab Gulf region (Gulf Cooperation Council states), development policies implemented in these two regions of the world have produced markedly different and even divergent outcomes. While Gulf Cooperation Council states have drawn on hydrocarbon revenues to dramatically transform their economic landscape, Sub-Saharan African countries have exhibited abysmal economic and social outcomes. The remarkable increase in personal income and large current account surpluses in Arab Gulf states is in sharp contrast with widespread poverty and recurrent balance of payments crises in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reviews the possible causes of these divergent development paths and discusses the prospects for economic convergence in the new globalization landscape of growing trade ties between the two regions. In particular, it shows that development models underpinned by institutional continuity and intergenerational accountability could enhance long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and income convergence between the two regions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5025
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  • 18
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    Ex-Ante Methods To Assess the Impact of Social Insurance Policies On Labor Supply With An Application To Brazil (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Robalino, David A Ex-Ante Methods To Assess the Impact of Social Insurance Policies On Labor Supply With An Application To Brazil
    Abstract: This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the unemployment benefits and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal Vs. informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distribution of an exogenous shock that affects movements in and out of the social security system (given individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of a given cohort across states (in or out of the social security / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian SI system today might generate distortions (lower savings rates and less formal employment) that increase the costs of the system and might generate regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the unemployment benefits and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then combining matching contributions and anti-poverty targeted transfers to cover individuals with limited or no savings capacity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5027
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  • 19
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    Assessing the Adjustment Implications of Trade Policy Changes Using TRIST (Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool) (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brenton, Paul Assessing the Adjustment Implications of Trade Policy Changes Using TRIST (Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool)
    Abstract: TRIST is a simple, easy to use tool to assess the adjustment implications of trade reform. It improves on existing tools. First, it is an improvement in terms of accuracy because projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates. Second, it is transparent and open; runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user; and is open-source and users are free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs. Third, TRIST has greater policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue (including VAT and excise) and results are broken down to the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified. And fourth, the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedules of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5045
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  • 20
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    Criss-Crossing Globalization : Uphill Flows of Skill-Intensive Goods and Foreign Direct Investment (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Criss-Crossing Globalization
    Abstract: This paper documents an unusual and possibly significant phenomenon: the export of skills, embodied in goods, services or capital from poorer to richer countries. The authors first present a set of stylized facts. Then, using a measure that combines the sophistication of a country’s exports with the average income level of destination countries, they show that the performance of a number of developing countries - notably China, Mexico and South Africa - matches that of much more advanced countries - such as Japan, Spain and the United States. The authors create a new combined dataset on foreign direct investment (covering greenfield investment as well as mergers and acquisitions). The analysis shows that flows of foreign direct investment to developed countries from developing countries - like Brazil, India, Malaysia and South Africa - as a share of their GDP, are as large as flows from developed countries - like Japan, Korea and the United States. The authors suggest that it is not just the composition of exports but their destination that matters. In both cross-sectional and panel regressions, with a range of controls, a measure of uphill flows of sophisticated goods is significantly associated with better growth performance. These results suggest the need for a deeper analysis of whether the benefits of development might derive not from deifying comparative advantage but from defying it
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5047
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  • 21
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    Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification : Evidence from Vietnam (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Khandker, Shahidur R Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification
    Abstract: Access to electricity is crucial for economic development and there is a growing body of literature on the impact of rural electrification on development. However, most studies have so far relied on cross-sectional surveys comparing households with and without electricity, which have well known causal attribution problems. This paper is one of the first studies to examine the welfare impacts of households’ rural electrification based on panel surveys conducted in 2002 and 2005 for some 1,100 households in rural Vietnam. The findings indicate that grid electrification has been both extensive (connecting all surveyed communes by 2005) and intensive (connecting almost 80 percent of the surveyed households by 2005). Vietnam is unusual in that once electricity is locally available, both rich and poor households are equally likely to get the connection. The econometric estimations suggest that grid electrification has significant positive impacts on households’ cash income, expenditure, and educational outcomes. The benefits, however, reach a saturation point after prolonged exposure to electricity. Finally, this study recommends investigating the long-term benefits of rural electrification - not just for households, but for the rural economy as a whole
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5057
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  • 22
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    Exchange Rates During the Crisis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Weber, Sebastian Exchange Rates During the Crisis
    Abstract: Nearly two years after the onset of the financial crises, many central banks have brought their policy interest rates down to, or close to zero. Various governments have seen their budget deficits soar. Both policies have affected exchange rates, partly through market expectations. With a majority of exchange rates officially floating, exchange rate movements do not necessarily reflect official decisions as was the case in the 1930s. Yet, also in the 2008 crisis, authorities have directly intervened in the foreign exchange market, sometimes in order to defend a falling currency but in other instances with the aim to limit appreciation pressure, akin of competitive devaluations. This paper documents the exchange rate interventions during the height of the 2008/09 financial crisis and identifies the countries which have particular high incentives to intervene in the foreign exchange market to competitively devalue their currency. While various countries had increased incentives to devalue, we find that direct exchange rate interventions have been rather limited and contagion of devaluation has been restricted to one regionally contained case. However, sharp market-driven exchange rate movements have reshaped competitive positions. It appears that these movements have so far not seriously disrupted global trade. After all, a world crisis is likely to require widespread exchange rate adjustments as different countries are affected in different ways and have different capacities to weather the shocks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5059
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  • 23
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    Do Value-Added Estimates Add Value ? : Accounting for Learning Dynamics (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andrabi, Tahir Do Value-Added Estimates Add Value ?
    Abstract: Evaluations of educational programs commonly assume that what children learn persists over time. The authors compare learning in Pakistani public and private schools using dynamic panel methods that account for three key empirical challenges to widely used value-added models: imperfect persistence, unobserved student heterogeneity, and measurement error. Their estimates suggest that only a fifth to a half of learning persists between grades and that private schools increase average achievement by 0.25 standard deviations each year. In contrast, estimates from commonly used value-added models significantly understate the impact of private schools’ on student achievement and/or overstate persistence. These results have implications for program evaluation and value-added accountability system design
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5066
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  • 24
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    Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements With Imperfect Credit Markets (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Agenor, Pierre-Richard Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements With Imperfect Credit Markets
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the cyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms’ effective collateral. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined and a capital channel is introduced through a signaling effect of capital buffers on the cost of bank deposits. The macroeconomic effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) are analyzed, under both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. Factors affecting the procyclicality of each regime (defined in terms of the behavior of the risk premium) are also identified and policy implications are discussed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5067
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  • 25
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    Distributional Impact Analysis of Past Climate Variability in Rural Indonesia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Korkeala, Outi Distributional Impact Analysis of Past Climate Variability in Rural Indonesia
    Abstract: In rural Indonesia, around 60 percent of workers engage in agriculture and face regular climatic shocks that may threaten their crop production, household income, and human capital investments. Little is known about households’ ability to maintain consumption in response to these shocks. This paper uses both longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data to examine the extent to which farm profits and household consumption are reduced by delayed monsoon onset, an important determinant of rice production in Indonesia. It also investigates whether poor households are more vulnerable to delayed onset. Overall, delayed onset has minor effects on rural households’ profit and consumption. For poor households, defined as those with average per capita consumption in the lowest quintile, delayed onset the previous year is associated with a 13 percent decline in per capita consumption. Most of this decline is due to an increase in household size, however, and delayed onset two years ago is positively correlated with consumption. The findings suggest that poor households experience greater volatility but no lasting reduction in consumption following delayed monsoon onset
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5070
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  • 26
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    Pricing Externalities From Passenger Transportation in Mexico City (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Parry, Ian W.H Pricing Externalities From Passenger Transportation in Mexico City
    Abstract: The Mexico City Metropolitan Area has been suffering severely from transportation externalities such as accidents, air pollution, and traffic congestion. This study examines pricing instruments to reduce these externalities using an analytical and numerical model. The study shows that the optimal levels of a gasoline tax and a congestion toll on automobiles could generate social benefits, measured in terms of welfare gain, of US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5071
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  • 27
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    Governance in Health Care Delivery : Raising Performance (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (73 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lewis, Maureen Governance in Health Care Delivery
    Abstract: The impacts of health care investments in developing and transition countries are typically measured by inputs and general health outcomes. Missing from the health agenda are measures of performance that reflect whether health systems are meeting their objectives; public resources are being used appropriately; and the priorities of governments are being implemented. This paper suggests that good governance is central to raising performance in health care delivery. Crucial to high performance are standards, information, incentives and accountability. This paper provides a definition of good governance in health and a framework for thinking about governance issues as a way of improving performance in the health sector. Performance indicators that offer the potential for tracking relative health performance are proposed, and provide the context for the discussion of good governance in health service delivery in the areas of budget and resource management, individual provider performance, health facility performance, informal payments, and corruption perceptions. What we do and do not know about effective solutions to advance good governance and performance in health is presented for each area, drawing on existing research and documented experiences
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5074
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  • 28
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    Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant : Russia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ianchovichina, Elena Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant
    Abstract: Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5075
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  • 29
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    How Will Changes in Globalization Impact Growth in South Asia ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ghani, Ejaz How Will Changes in Globalization Impact Growth in South Asia ?
    Abstract: The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization - trade, capital, and economic management - may not be the same in the future. Changes in globalization could change the composition of trade flows, capital flows, and economic management, which in turn, could accelerate or restrain growth. South Asia is somewhat peculiar and different from other regions in how it has globalized, although there is a lot of diversity within the region. Its trade characteristics are different. India's growth has been spearheaded by exports of modern services and less by goods exports. Modern service trade tends to be more resilient compared with goods trade. Globalization of services is still at an early stage. So, as consumers pull back in the United States, service trade is likely to be less impacted compared to goods trade. Trade also contributes to growth through knowledge spillovers, externalities, and learning. The global crisis has not reduced the stock of global knowledge. Changes in capital flows are also not likely to have a big impact on growth in South Asia, as South Asia's investments are largely driven by domestic savings. Its dependence on foreign capital is low. South Asia has attracted capital flows that are less volatile. Remittances, which are more resilient, have been the dominant form of capital inflows, exceeding foreign direct investment and other inflows.This global downturn calls for counter-cyclical economic management. But South Asia has limited room for fiscal stimulus, given high debt-to-gross domestic product ratios. Nevertheless, reduced commodity prices have created some fiscal space that can be used for growth enabling infrastructure and safety nets. As South Asia undergoes structural transformation, the region is well positioned to bounce back with global economic recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5079
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  • 30
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    Microfinance Tradeoffs : Regulation, Competition, and Financing (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Microfinance Tradeoffs
    Abstract: This paper describes important trade-offs that microfinance practitioners, donors, and regulators navigate. Drawing evidence from large, global surveys of microfinance institutions, the authors find a basic tension between meeting social goals and maximizing financial performance. For example, non-profit microfinance institutions make far smaller loans on average and serve more women as a fraction of customers than do commercialized microfinance banks, but their costs per dollar lent are also much higher. Potential trade-offs therefore arise when selecting contracting mechanisms, level of commercialization, rigor of regulation, and the extent of competition. Meaningful interventions in microfinance will require making deliberate choices - and thus embracing and weighing tradeoffs carefully
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5086
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  • 31
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    Achieving Urban Climate Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Carmin, JoAnn Achieving Urban Climate Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia
    Abstract: Many cities across Europe and Central Asia are experiencing the impacts of climate change, but most have not integrated climate adaptation into their agendas. This paper examines the threats faced and measures that can be taken by cities in the region to protect buildings, heritage sites, municipal functions, and vulnerable urban populations. In general, local governments must be proactive in ensuring that existing buildings are climate ready, paying particular attention to emerging technologies for retrofitting the prefabricated, panel style buildings that dominate the landscape while assessing the viability of homes situated in flood plains, coastal areas, and steep slopes. They also must ensure that new developments and buildings are designed in ways that account for climatic fluctuations. Although the resilience of all populations needs to be considered, historical patterns of discrimination require that special provisions are made for the poor and for ethnic minorities such as the Roma because these groups will be most at risk, but are least likely to have access to adequate resources. Urban climate adaptation requires national-level support and local commitment. However, centralized planning and expert-led decision-making under the former regimes may affect the ability of cities to pursue programmatic approaches to adaptation. Therefore, while national governments need to make adaptation a policy priority and ensure that municipalities have adequate resources, local government agencies and departments must be transparent in their actions and introduce participatory and community-based measures that demonstrate respect for diverse stakeholders and perspectives
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5088
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  • 32
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    Can A Market-Assisted Land Redistribution Program Improve the Lives of the Poor ? : Evidence From Malawi (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Datar, Gayatri Can A Market-Assisted Land Redistribution Program Improve the Lives of the Poor ?
    Abstract: This paper uses a rural household survey dataset collected in 2006 and 2008 to investigate the impact of a market-based land resettlement project in southern Malawi. The program provided a conditional cash and land transfer to poor families to relocate to larger plots of farm land. The average treatment effect of the program is estimated using a difference-in-difference matching technique based on propensity score matching; qualitative information complement the analysis to ensure unobservable characteristics do not bias the findings. As expected, the results show a significant effect on landholdings and agricultural production, with land size increasing and maize production increasing by more than 100 kilograms relative to the control. However, the impacts on food security and asset holdings were mixed. Households that relocated great distances had systematically lower impacts than those households that stayed within their district of origin because they had to adapt to unfamiliar agro-ecological, cultural, and market environments. Impacts also varied across gender of the household head; female-headed beneficiary households increased their productive and consumption assets significantly, while male-headed households increased their asset holdings less so
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5093
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  • 33
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    Missing Women and India's Religious Demography (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Borooah, Vani Missing Women and India's Religious Demography
    Abstract: The authors use recent data from the 2006 National Family Health Survey of India to explore the relationship between religion and demographic behavior. They find that fertility and mortality vary not only between religious groups, but also across caste groups. These groups also differ with respect to socio-economic status. The central finding of this paper is that despite their socio-economic disadvantages, Muslims have higher fertility than their Hindu counterparts and also exhibit lower levels of infant mortality (particularly female infant mortality). This effect is robust to the inclusion of controls for non-religious factors such as socio-economic status and area of residence. This result has important policy implications because it suggests that India's problem of "missing women" may be concentrated in particular groups. The authors conclude that religion and caste play a key role in determining the demographic characteristics of India
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5096
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  • 34
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    U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China Trade Conflict : Export Growth, Reciprocity, and the International Trading System (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bown, Chad P U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China Trade Conflict
    Abstract: First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper the authors focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. The authors describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. They then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, the authors compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5102
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  • 35
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    Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Um, Paul Noumba Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure on growth of total factor productivity and per capita income, using both growth accounting techniques and cross-country growth regressions. The two econometric techniques yield some consistent and some different results. Regressions based in the growth accounting framework suggest that electricity production helps explain cross-country differences in total factor productivity growth in the Middle East and North Africa region. Growth regressions support that conclusion, while also stressing an effect of telecommunications infrastructure. Finally, growth regressions also indicate quite consistently that the returns to infrastructure have been lower in the Middle East and North Africa region than in developing countries as a whole
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5105
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  • 36
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    Left Behind To Farm ? : Women's Labor Re-Allocation in Rural China (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mu, Ren Left Behind To Farm ?
    Abstract: The transformation of work during China’s rapid economic development is associated with a substantial but little noticed re-allocation of traditional farm labor among women, with some doing much less and some much more. This paper studies how the work, time allocation, and health of non-migrant women are affected by the out-migration of others in their household. The analysis finds that the women left behind are doing more farm work than would have otherwise been the case. There is also evidence that this is a persistent effect, and not just temporary re-allocation. For some types of women (notably older women), the labor re-allocation response comes out of their leisure
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5107
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  • 37
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    Public Interest Litigation in India : Overreaching Or Underachieving ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gauri, Varun Public Interest Litigation in India
    Abstract: Public interest litigation has historically been an innovative judicial procedure for enhancing the social and economic rights of disadvantaged and marginalized groups in India. In recent years, however, a number of criticisms of public interest litigation have emerged, including concerns related to separation of powers, judicial capacity, and inequality. These criticisms have tended to abstraction, and the sheer number of cases has complicated empirical assessments. This paper finds that public interest litigation cases constitute less than 1 percent of the overall case load. The paper argues that complaints related to concerns having to do with separation of powers are better understood as criticisms of the impact of judicial interventions on sector governance. On the issue of inequality, the analysis finds that win rates for fundamental rights claims are significantly higher when the claimant is from an advantaged social group than when he or she is from a marginalized group, which constitutes a social reversal, both from the original objective of public interest litigation and from the relative win rates in the 1980s
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5109
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  • 38
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    Innovating Development Finance : From Financing Sources to Financial Solutions (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (111 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Girishankar, Navin Innovating Development Finance
    Abstract: As early as 2000, development partners embarked on a decade-long search for "innovative" or alternative sources of Official Development Assistance to help finance achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. For their part, developing countries have sought not only more financial flows but better financial solutions, for example, through partnerships that mobilize private finance for public service delivery, risk mitigation efforts that promote private entry in the productive sectors, and support for carbon trading. This paper offers a framework to organize and understand this heterogeneous mix of innovations in fund-raising and financial solutions for development. It also provides, for the first time, a stocktaking of actual innovations that make up the international landscape and highlights the World Bank Group’s role to date. The stocktaking shows that innovative finance mechanisms have played a more significant role in supporting financial solutions on the ground than in identifying and exploiting "alternative sources of ODA." Innovative fund-raising therefore should be viewed as a complement to - rather than a substitute for - traditional efforts to mobilize official flows, in particular concessional flows. Going forward, innovations need to be tested and evaluated to determine value-added
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5111
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  • 39
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    Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited : the Microdata Show That More Educated Migrants Remit More (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bollard, Albert Remittances and the Brain Drain Revisited
    Abstract: Two of the most salient trends surrounding the issue of migration and development over the past two decades are the large rise in remittances, and an increased flow of skilled migration. However, recent literature based on cross-country regressions has claimed that more educated migrants remit less, leading to concerns that further increases in skilled migration will hamper remittance growth. This paper revisits the relationship between education and remitting behavior using microdata from surveys of immigrants in 11 major destination countries. The data show a mixed pattern between education and the likelihood of remitting, and a strong positive relationship between education and the amount remitted conditional on remitting. Combining these intensive and extensive margins gives an overall positive effect of education on the amount remitted. The microdata then allow investigation as to why the more educated remit more. The analysis finds that the higher income earned by migrants, rather than characteristics of their family situations, explains much of the higher remittances
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5113
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  • 40
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    Everything You Always Wanted To Know About WTO Accession (But Were Afraid To Ask) (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cattaneo, Olivier Everything You Always Wanted To Know About WTO Accession (But Were Afraid To Ask)
    Abstract: In this paper, the authors explore the complex, long, and unique process of accession to the World Trade Organization, with its intertwined economic, legal, and political dimensions. Referring to country case studies and sector-specific issues, the paper organizes some of the current reflections on the topic around three main themes. First, it explores the rationale of accession to the World Trade Organization: Why would new members join the WTO? And why would incumbent members let new members in? Second, it analyzes the World Trade Organization accession process in detail: What are the main characteristics and challenges of the accession process? Has it evolved over time, and how? Third, the paper looks at the implementation of World Trade Organization accession deals: Is accession the end or the beginning of the story? What are the implications for the participating countries and the multilateral trading system?
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5116
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  • 41
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    Mandated Benefits, Employment, and Inequality in A Dual Economy (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Almeida, Rita Mandated Benefits, Employment, and Inequality in A Dual Economy
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of enforcing labor regulation in an economy with a dual labor market. The analysis uses data from Brazil, a country with a large informal sector and strict labor law, where enforcement affects mainly the degree of compliance with mandated benefits (severance pay and health and safety conditions) in the formal sector, and the registration of informal workers. The authors find that stricter enforcement leads to higher unemployment but lower income inequality. They also show that, at the top of the formal wage distribution, workers bear the cost of mandated benefits by receiving lower wages. Wage rigidity (due, say, to the minimum wage) prevents this downward adjustment at the bottom of the income distribution. As a result, formal sector jobs at the bottom of the wage distribution become more attractive, inducing the low-skilled self-employed to search for formal jobs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5119
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  • 42
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    Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization ?
    Abstract: Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. The authors depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports because of the potential growth consequences. Second, they decompose the impact of an agreement on emissions reductions into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country’s emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7 percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutch disease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If the growth costs of these structural changes are judged to be substantial, the current policy consensus, which favors emissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplemented with financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5121
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  • 43
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    Mental Health in the Aftermath of Conflict (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Do, Quy-Toan Mental Health in the Aftermath of Conflict
    Abstract: The authors survey the recent literature on the mental health effects of conflict. They highlight the methodological challenges faced in this literature, which include the lack of validated mental health scales in a survey context, the difficulties in measuring individual exposure to conflict, and the issues related to making causal inferences from observed correlations. They illustrate how some of these issues can be overcome in a study of mental health in post-conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mental health is measured using a clinically validated scale; conflict exposure is proxied by administrative data on war casualties instead of being self-reported. The analysis suggests that there are no significant differences in overall mental health across areas which are affected by ethnic conflict to a greater or lesser degree
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5132
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  • 44
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    Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness : Does Compliance Matter ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness
    Abstract: This paper studies whether compliance with the Basel Core Principles for effective banking supervision is associated with bank soundness. Using data for more than 3,000 banks in 86 countries, the authors find that neither the overall index of compliance with the Basel Core Principles nor the individual components of the index are robustly associated with bank risk measured by Z-scores. The results of the analysis cast doubt on the usefulness of the Basel Core Principles in ensuring bank soundness
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5129
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  • 45
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    Explaining High Transport Costs Within Malawi : Bad Roads Or Lack of Trucking Competition? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lall, Somik V Explaining High Transport Costs Within Malawi
    Abstract: What are the main determinants of transport costs: network access or competition among transport providers? The focus in the transport sector has often been on improving the coverage of "hard" infrastructure, whereas in reality the cost of transporting goods is quite sensitive to the extent of competition among transport providers and scale economies in the freight transport industry, creating monopolistic behavior and circular causation between lower transport costs and greater trade and traffic. This paper contributes to the discussion on transport costs in Malawi, providing fresh empirical evidence based on a specially commissioned survey of transport providers and spatial analysis of the country’s infrastructure network. The main finding is that both infrastructure quality and market structure of the trucking industry are important contributors to regional differences in transport costs. The quality of the trunk road network is not a major constraint but differences in the quality of feeder roads connecting villages to the main road network have significant bearing on transport costs. And costs due to poor feeder roads are exacerbated by low volumes of trade between rural locations and market centers. With empty backhauls and journeys covering small distances, only a few transport service providers enter the market, charging disproportionately high prices to cover fixed costs and maximize markups
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5133
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  • 46
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    The Heavenly Liquidity Twin : the Increasing Importance of Liquidity Risk (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (75 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Montes-Negret, Fernando The Heavenly Liquidity Twin
    Abstract: Liquidity and solvency have been called the "heavenly twins" of banking (Goodhart, Charles, 'Liquidity Risk Management', Financial Stability Review - Special Issue on Liquidity, Banque de France, No. 11, February, 2008). Since these "twins" interact in complex ways, it is difficult - particularly at times of crisis - to distinguish between them, especially in the presence of information asymmetries (Information asymmetry occurs when one party has more or better information than the other, creating an imbalance of power, giving rise to adverse selection and moral hazard ). An insolvent bank can be liquid or illiquid, and a solvent bank may be at times illiquid. In the latter case, insolvency is not far away, since banking is grounded in information and confidence, and it is confidence which in the end determines liquidity. In other words, liquidity is very much endogenous, determined by the general condition of a bank, as well as the perception of it by the public and market participants. Dealing with liquidity risk is more challenging than dealing with other risks, since liquidity is the result of all the operations of a bank and it is fundamentally a relative concept which compares segments of the balance sheet on the asset and liability sides. It does not deal with absolutes, like arguably the concept of capital and it explains why there is not an internationally recognized "Liquidity Accord". This Working Paper addresses key concepts like market and funding liquidity and basic tools to address liquidity issues like cash flows, liquidity gaps and some selected financial ratios. It aims at providing an introductory guide to risk assessment and management, and provides useful and practical guidelines to undertake liquidity assessments which could prove useful in preparing Financial Assessment Programs (FSAPS) in member countries of the Bretton Woods institutions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5139
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  • 47
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    What Did You Do All Day ? : Maternal Education and Child Outcomes (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Andrabi, Tahir What Did You Do All Day ?
    Abstract: Female education levels are very low in many developing countries. Does maternal education have a causal impact on children's educational outcomes even at these very low levels of education? By combining a nationwide census of schools in Pakistan with household data, the authors use the availability of girls' schools in the mother's birth village as an instrument for maternal schooling to address this issue. Since public schools in Pakistan are segregated by gender, the instrument affects only maternal education rather than the education levels of both mothers and fathers. The analysis finds that children of mothers with some education spend 75 minutes more on educational activities at home compared with children whose mothers report no education at all. Mothers with some education also spend more time helping their children with school work; the effect is stronger (an extra 40 minutes per day) in families where the mother is likely the primary care-giver. Finally, test scores for children whose mothers have some education are higher in English, Urdu (the vernacular), and mathematics by 0.24-0.35 standard deviations. There is no relationship between maternal education and mother’s time spent on paid work or housework - a posited channel through which education affects bargaining power within the household. And there is no relationship between maternal education and the mother's role in educational decisions or in the provision of other child-specific goods, such as expenditures on pocket money, uniforms, and tuition. The data therefore suggest that at these very low levels of education, maternal education does not substantially affect a mother's bargaining power within the household. Instead, maternal education could directly increase the mother's productivity or affect her preferences toward children’s education in a context where her bargaining power is low
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5143
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  • 48
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    The New Multi-Polar International Monetary System (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dailami, Mansoor The New Multi-Polar International Monetary System
    Abstract: Backed by rapid economic growth, growing financial clout, and a newfound sense of assertiveness in recent years, the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - are a driving force behind an incipient transformation of the world economy away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one in which developing countries will have a major say. It is, however, in the international monetary arena that the notion of multipolarity - more than two dominant poles - commands renewed attention and vigorous debate. For much of its history, the quintessential structural feature of the international monetary system has been unipolarity - as American hegemony of initiatives and power as well as its capacity to promote a market-based, liberal order came to define and shape international monetary relations. As other currencies become potential substitutes for the US dollar in international reserves and in cross-border claims, exchange rate volatility may become more severe. There are also risks that the rivalry among the three economic blocs may spill over into something more if not kept in check by a strong global governance structure. While the transition will be difficult and drawn out, governments should take immediate steps to prevent financial volatility by enhancing cooperation on monetary policies, currency market intervention and financial regulation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5147
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  • 49
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    Are Irrigation Rehabilitation Projects Good for Poor Farmers in Peru? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Datar, Gayatri Are Irrigation Rehabilitation Projects Good for Poor Farmers in Peru?
    Abstract: This paper analyzes changes in agricultural production and economic welfare of farmers in rural Peru resulting from a large irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation project. The analysis uses a ten-year district panel and a spatial regression discontinuity approach to measure the causal effect of the intervention. While general impacts are modest, the analysis shows that the project is progressive - poor farmers consistently benefit more than non-poor farmers. Farmers living in districts with a rehabilitated irrigation site experience positive labor dynamics, in terms of income and agricultural jobs. Poor farmers increase their total income by more than
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5154
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  • 50
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    The Impact of Trade in Services On Factor Incomes : Results From A Global Simulation Model (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ahmed, S. Amer The Impact of Trade in Services On Factor Incomes
    Abstract: Indian gross domestic product per capita increased rapidly between 2001 and 2006 in a climate of increasing services trade, with the export-oriented services sector responsible for rising shares of growth in gross domestic product. Due to its contribution to aggregate economic growth, there is a great need for empirical examination of the distributional consequences of this growth, especially in light of the challenges in obtaining theoretical solutions that can be generalized. This paper fills this gap in the literature by using a global simulation model to examine how sensitive factor incomes across different industries may have been to the historical changes in India's services exports and imports, and provides insight on the distribution of the national income growth attributable to the expansion of the services industry. Rent on capital in the service sector and wages of all workers would have increased as a result of greater services trade in this period, while income from capital specific to agriculture and manufacturing would have declined. The factors involved with the urban-based services sector may thus benefit from the services trade growth, while the total factor income involved in rural agriculture may decline
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5155
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  • 51
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    Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Services in African Cities Due To Lack of Demand Or Lack of Supply? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Wodon, Quentin Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Services in African Cities Due To Lack of Demand Or Lack of Supply?
    Abstract: A majority of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is not connected to electricity and piped water networks, and even in urban areas coverage is low. Lack of network coverage may be due to demand or supply-side factors. Some households may live in areas where access to piped water and electricity is feasible, but may not be able to pay for those services. Other households may be able to afford the services, but may live too far from the electric line or water pipe to have a choice to be connected to it. Given that the policy options for dealing with demand as opposed to supply-side issues are fairly different, it is important to try to measure the contributions of both types of factors in preventing better coverage of infrastructure services in the population. This paper shows how this can be done empirically using household survey data and provides results on the magnitude of both types of factors in explaining the coverage deficit of piped water and electricity services in urban areas for a large sample of African countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4881
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  • 52
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    Dignity Through Discourse : Poverty and the Culture of Deliberation in Indian Village Democracies (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Rao, Vijayendra Dignity Through Discourse
    Abstract: Employing a view of culture as a communicative phenomenon involving discursive engagement, which is deeply influenced by social and economic inequalities, the authors argue that the struggle to break free of poverty is as much a cultural process as it is political and economic. In this paper, they analyze important examples of discursive spaces - public meetings in Indian village democracies (gram sabhas), where villagers make important decisions about budgetary allocations for village development and the selection of beneficiaries for anti-poverty programs. They examine 290 transcripts of gram sabhas from South India to demonstrate how they create a culture of civic/political engagement among poor people, and how definitions of poverty and beneficiary-selection criteria are understood and interrogated within them. Through this examination, they highlight the process by which gram sabhas facilitate the acquisition of crucial cultural capabilities such as discursive skills and civic agency by poor and disadvantaged groups. They illustrate how the poor and socially marginalized deploy these discursive skills in a resource-scarce and socially stratified environment in making material and non-material demands in their search for dignity. The intersection of poverty, culture, and deliberative democracy is a topic of broad relevance because it sheds light on cultural processes that can be influenced by public action in a manner that helps improve the voice and agency of the poor
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4924
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  • 53
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    Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time : Data and Analysis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time
    Abstract: This paper introduces the updated and expanded version of the Financial Development and Structure Database and presents recent trends in structure and development of financial institutions and markets across countries. The authors add indicators on banking structure and financial globalization. They find a deepening of both financial markets and institutions, a trend concentrated in high-income countries and more pronounced for markets than for banks. Similarly, the recent increase in cross-border lending and debt issues has been concentrated in high-income countries, while low and lower-middle income countries have experienced an increase in remittance flows. Low net interest margins, rising profitability and declining stability in high-income countries’ banking sectors characterize the recent financial sector boom in high income countries leading up to the global financial crisis of 2007
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4943
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  • 54
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    Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development : What Have We Learned and What Should We Learn? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Until recently rigorous impact evaluations have been rare in the area of finance and private sector development. One reason for this is the perception that many policies and projects in this area lend themselves less to formal evaluations. However, a vanguard of new impact evaluations on areas as diverse as fostering microenterprise growth, microfinance, rainfall insurance, and regulatory reform demonstrates that in many circumstances serious evaluation is possible. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and distil the policy and implementation lessons emerging from these studies, use them to demonstrate the feasibility of impact evaluations in a broader array of topics, and thereby help prompt new impact evaluations for projects going forward
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4944
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  • 55
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    A Structural Model of Establishment and Industry Evolution : Evidence From Chile (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Seker, Murat A Structural Model of Establishment and Industry Evolution
    Abstract: Many recent models have been developed to fit the basic facts on establishment and industry evolution. While these models yield a simple interpretation of the basic features of the data, they are too stylized to confront the micro-level data in a more formal quantitative analysis. In this paper, the author develops a model in which establishments grow by innovating new products. By introducing heterogeneity to a stylized industry evolution model, the analysis succeeds in explaining several features of the data, such as the thick right tail of the size distribution and the relations between age, size, and the hazard rate of exit, which had eluded existing models. In the model, heterogeneity in producer behavior arises through a combination of exogenous efficiency differences and accumulated innovations resulting from past endogenous research and development investments. Integrating these forces allows the model to perform well quantitatively in fitting data on Chilean manufacturers. The counterfactual experiments show how producers respond to research and development subsidies and more competitive market environments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4947
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  • 56
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    Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Profitability and Outreach? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Profitability and Outreach?
    Abstract: Regulation allows microfinance institutions to evolve more fully into banks, particularly for institutions aiming to take deposits. But there are potential trade-offs. Complying with regulation and supervision can be costly. The authors examine the implications for the institutions’ profitability and their outreach to small-scale borrowers and women. The tests draw on a new database that combines high-quality financial data on 245 of the world’s largest microfinance institutions with newly-constructed data on their prudential supervision. Ordinary least squares regressions show that supervision is negatively associated with profitability. Controlling for the non-random assignment of supervision via treatment effects and instrumental variables regressions, the analysis finds that supervision is associated with substantially larger average loan sizes and less lending to women than in ordinary least squares regressions, although it is not significantly associated with profitability. The pattern is consistent with the notion that profit-oriented microfinance institutions absorb the cost of supervision by curtailing outreach to market segments that tend to be more costly per dollar lent. By contrast, microfinance institutions that rely on non-commercial sources of funding (for example, donations), and thus are less profit-oriented, do not adjust loan sizes or lend less to women when supervised, but their profitability is significantly reduced
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4948
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  • 57
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    What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brenton, Paul What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?
    Abstract: Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4951
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  • 58
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    The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members : Omnibus Results From A Migration Lottery Program (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John The Impacts of International Migration On Remaining Household Members
    Abstract: The impacts of international migration on development in the sending countries, and especially the effects on remaining household members, are increasingly studied. However, comparisons of households in developing countries with and without migrants are complicated by a double-selectivity problem: households self-select into migration, and among households involved in migration, some send a subset of members with the rest remaining while other households migrate en masse. The authors address these selectivity issues using the randomization provided by an immigration ballot under the Pacific Access Category of New Zealand’s immigration policy. They survey applicants to the 2002-05 ballots in Tonga and compare outcomes for the remaining household members of emigrants with those for members of similar households that were unsuccessful in the ballots. The immigration laws determine which household members can accompany the principal migrant, providing an instrument to address the second selectivity issue. Using this natural experiment, the authors examine the myriad impacts that migration has on remaining household members, focussing on labor supply, income, durable assets, financial service usage, diet, and physical and mental health. The analysis uses multiple hypothesis testing procedures to examine which impacts are robust. The findings indicate that the overall impact on households left behind is largely negative. The findings also reveal evidence that both sources of selectivity matter, leading studies that fail to adequately address them to misrepresent the impact of migration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4956
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  • 59
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    The Impact of Climate Change On Catastrophe Risk Models : Implications for Catastrophe Risk Markets in Developing Countries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Seo, John The Impact of Climate Change On Catastrophe Risk Models
    Abstract: Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, in conjunction with recently published scientific literature has led risk modelers to revisit their hurricane models and develop climate conditioned hurricane models. This paper discusses these climate conditioned hurricane models and compares their risk estimates to those of base normal hurricane models. This comparison shows that the recent 50 year period of climate change has potentially increased North Atlantic hurricane frequency by 30 percent. However, such an increase in hurricane frequency would result in an increase in risk to human property that is equivalent to less than 10 years’ worth of US coastal property growth. Increases in potential extreme losses require the reinsurance industry to secure additional risk capital for these peak risks, resulting in the short term in lower risk capacity for developing countries. However, reinsurers and investors in catastrophe securities may still have a long-term interest in providing catastrophe coverage in middle and low-income countries as this allows reinsurers and investors to better diversify their catastrophe risk portfolios
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4959
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  • 60
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    Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are There Any? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hochrainer, Stefan Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters
    Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4968
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    Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in An Agricultural Economy : the Case of Ethiopia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Loening, Josef L Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in An Agricultural Economy
    Abstract: Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production, which is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4969
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  • 62
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    Identifying spatial efficiency-equity tradeoffs in territorial development policies : evidence from Uganda (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lall, Somik V Identifying spatial efficiency-equity tradeoffs in territorial development policies
    Abstract: In many countries, place specific investments in infrastructure are viewed as integral components of territorial development policies. But are these policies fighting market forces of concentration? Or are they adding net value to the national economy by tapping underexploited resources? This paper contributes to the debate on the spatial allocation of infrastructure investments by examining where these investments will generate the highest economic returns "spatial efficiency", and identifying whether there re tradeoffs when infrastructure coverage is made more equitable across regions "spatial equity". The empirical analysis focuses on Uganda and is based on estimating models of firm location choice, drawing on insights from the new economic geography literature. The main findings show that establishments in the manufacturing industry gain from being in areas that offer a diverse mix of economic activities. In addition, availability of power supply, transport links connecting districts to markets, and the supply of skilled workers attract manufacturing activities. Combining all these factors gives a distinct advantage to existing agglomerations along leading areas around Kampala and Jinja. Infrastructure investments in these areas are likely to produce the highest returns compared with investments elsewhere. Public infrastructure investments in other locations are likely to attract fewer private investors, and will pose a spatial efficiencyequity tradeoff. To better integrate lagging regions with the national economy, lessons from the WDR2009 "Reshaping Economic Geography" calling for investments in health and education in lagging areas are likely to be more beneficial
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4966
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  • 63
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    How Should Fiscal Policy Respond To the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? : Some Pointers From Tajikistan (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brownbridge, Martin How Should Fiscal Policy Respond To the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States?
    Abstract: The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4970
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  • 64
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    Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?
    Abstract: We are not seeing faster progress against poverty amongst the poorest developing countries. Yet this is implied by widely accepted "stylized facts" about the development process. The paper tries to explain what is missing from those stylized facts. Consistently with models of economic growth incorporating borrowing constraints, the analysis of a new data set for 100 developing countries reveals an adverse effect on consumption growth of high initial poverty incidence at a given initial mean. A high incidence of poverty also entails a lower subsequent rate of progress against poverty at any given growth rate (and poor countries tend to experience less steep increases in poverty during recessions). Thus, for many poor countries, the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean ("conditional convergence") is lost due to their high poverty rates. The size of the middle class - measured by developing-country, not Western, standards - appears to be an important channel linking current poverty to subsequent growth and poverty reduction. However, high current inequality is only a handicap if it entails a high incidence of poverty relative to mean consumption
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4974
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  • 65
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    Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2008 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaufmann, Daniel Governance Matters VIII
    Abstract: This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4978
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  • 66
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    Remittances and Banking Sector Breadth and Depth : Evidence From Mexico (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Remittances and Banking Sector Breadth and Depth
    Abstract: Despite the rising volume of remittances flowing to developing countries, their impact on banking sector breadth and depth in recipient countries has been largely unexplored. The authors examine this topic using municipio-level data on the fraction of households that receive remittances and on measures of banking breadth and depth for Mexico. They find that remittances are strongly associated with greater banking breadth and depth, increasing the number of branches and accounts per capita and the ratio of deposits to gross domestic product. These effects are significant both statistically and economically, even after conducting robustness tests and addressing the potential endogeneity of remittances
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4983
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  • 67
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    Diasporas (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beine, Michel Diasporas
    Abstract: Migration flows are shaped by a complex combination of self-selection and out-selection mechanisms. In this paper, the authors analyze how existing diasporas (the stock of people born in a country and living in another one) affect the size and human-capital structure of current migration flows. The analysis exploits a bilateral data set on international migration by educational attainment from 195 countries to 30 developed countries in 1990 and 2000. Based on simple micro-foundations and controlling for various determinants of migration, the analysis finds that diasporas increase migration flows, lower the average educational level and lead to higher concentration of low-skill migrants. Interestingly, diasporas explain the majority of the variability of migration flows and selection. This suggests that, without changing the generosity of family reunion programs, education-based selection rules are likely to have a moderate impact. The results are highly robust to the econometric techniques, accounting for the large proportion of zeros and endogeneity problems
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4984
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  • 68
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    System-Wide Impacts of Hospital Payment Reforms : Evidence From Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo System-Wide Impacts of Hospital Payment Reforms
    Abstract: Although there is broad agreement that the way that health care providers are paid affects their performance, the empirical literature on the impacts of provider payment reforms is surprisingly thin. During the 1990s and early 2000s, many European and Central Asian countries shifted from paying hospitals through historical budgets to fee-for-service or patient-based-payment methods (mostly variants of diagnosis-related groups). Using panel data on 28 countries over the period 1990-2004, the authors of this study exploit the phased shift from historical budgets to explore aggregate impacts on hospital throughput, national health spending, and mortality from causes amenable to medical care. They use a regression version of difference-in-differences and two variants that relax the difference-in-differences parallel trends assumption. The results show that fee-for-service and patient-based-payment methods both increased national health spending, including private (out-of-pocket) spending. However, they had different effects on inpatient admissions (fee-for-service increased them; patient-based-payment had no effect), and average length of stay (fee-for-service had no effect; patient-based-payment reduced it). Of the two methods, only patient-based-payment appears to have had any beneficial effect on "amenable mortality," but there were significant impacts for only a couple of causes of death, and not in all model specifications
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4987
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  • 69
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    Disasters and Economic Welfare : Can National Savings Help Explain Post-Disaster Changes in Consumption? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Mechler, Reinhard Disasters and Economic Welfare
    Abstract: The debate on whether natural disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and indeed hinder development is ongoing. Most analyses along these lines have focused on impacts on gross domestic product. This paper looks beyond this standard national accounting aggregate, and examines whether traditional and alternative national savings measures combined with adjustments for the destruction of capital stocks may contribute to better explaining post-disaster changes in welfare as measured by changes in consumption expenditure. The author concludes that including disaster asset losses may help to better explain variations in post-disaster consumption, albeit almost exclusively for the group of low-income countries. The observed effect is rather small and in the range of a few percent of the explained variation. For low-income countries, capital stock and changes therein, such as forced by disaster shocks, seem to play a more important role than for higher-income economies, where human capital and technological progress become crucial. There are important data constraints and uncertainties, particularly regarding the quality of disaster loss data and the shares of capital stock losses therein. Another important challenge potentially biasing the results is the lack of data on alternative savings measures for many disaster-exposed lower-income countries and small island states
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4988
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  • 70
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    Tax Compliance Perceptions and Formalization of Small Businesses in South Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Coolidge, Jacqueline Tax Compliance Perceptions and Formalization of Small Businesses in South Africa
    Abstract: This paper is based on large-scale surveys of formal and informal small businesses in South Africa, including questions about their experiences and perceptions about tax compliance, tax morale, and related variables. The survey findings suggest that formalization is more likely to take place in urban areas, involving relatively larger firms, and those who already use proper bookkeeping. Informal firms who said they were likely to register for tax in the near future were more likely than other informal firms to report higher satisfaction with government services, and to believe most businesses pay their taxes. The most-cited advantages of being registered for tax included better access to government services, better access to financing, and better opportunities for growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4992
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  • 71
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    The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kannan, Prakash The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion
    Abstract: The 2007 subprime crisis in the United States has triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises, through its impact on investor uncertainty, determines the occurrence of contagion. Incidences of surprise crises lead investors to doubt the accuracy of their information-gathering technology, which endogenously increases the probability of crises elsewhere. Anticipated crises, instead, have the opposite effect. Importantly, this channel is empirically shown to have an independent effect beyond other contagion channels
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4995
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  • 72
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    Competition, Imitation, and Technical Change : Quality Vs. Variety (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cusolito, Ana Competition, Imitation, and Technical Change
    Abstract: Some researchers have documented that the path of development is remarkably related to the pattern of sectoral diversification. Others have highlighted the relation between productive specialization and economic progress. This paper explores the role of product market competition and intellectual property rights protection in the pattern of sectoral diversification. The paper confirms the insight of the innovation literature, that competition induces firms to specialize and upgrade the quality of existing goods. However, it reveals a new force, called the imitation effect, through which competition biases technical change toward product diversification. The paper shows that if knowledge spillovers increase with imitation, or the degree of product substitution is high, weak protection of property rights encourages firms to create low-quality goods, thereby directing technical change toward diversification. The predictions are tested with data on Italian firms' innovation activity. They are found to be consistent with observed behavior
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4997
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  • 73
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    Trade Finance in Crisis : Market Adjustment Or Market Failure? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Chauffour, Jean-Pierre Trade Finance in Crisis
    Abstract: As world leaders have agreed to massively support trade finance, this paper discusses the singularity of the issues related to trade finance in the context of the global economic crisis. Why should international trade finance be a particular issue of concern in the current circumstances? Are there specific market or government failures associated with trade finance that justify a special and differential treatment of the issue by policymakers? If so, what would then be the most appropriate policy instruments to address those concerns? The paper cautions against the notion of a large trade finance "gap," yet highlights the possible rationales and conditions for an effective intervention in support of trade finance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5003
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  • 74
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    Aid and Trust in Country Systems (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Knack, Stephen Aid and Trust in Country Systems
    Abstract: The 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness sets targets for increased use by donors of recipient country systems for managing aid. A consensus view holds that country systems are strengthened when donors trust recipients to manage aid funds, but undermined when donors manage aid through their own separate parallel systems. This paper provides an analytical framework for understanding donors’ decisions to trust in country systems or instead to micro-manage aid using their own systems and procedures. Where country systems are sufficiently weak, the development impact of aid is reduced by donors’ reliance on them. Trust in country systems will be sub-optimal, however, if donors have multiple objectives in aid provision rather than a sole objective of maximizing development outcomes. Empirical tests are conducted using data from an OECD survey designed to monitor progress toward Paris Declaration goals. Trust in country systems is measured in three ways: use of the recipient’s public financial management systems, use of direct budget support, and use of program-based approaches. The authors show using fixed effects regression that a donor’s trust in recipient country systems is positively related to (1) trustworthiness or quality of those systems, (2) tolerance for risk on the part of the donor’s constituents, as measured by public support for providing aid, and (3) the donor’s ability to internalize more of the benefits of investing in country systems, as measured by the donor’s share of all aid provided to a recipient
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5005
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  • 75
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    Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Boonperm, Jirawan Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand?
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of the Thailand Village and Urban Revolving Fund on household expenditure, income, and assets. The revolving fund was launched in 2001 when the Government of Thailand promised to provide a million baht (about
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5011
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  • 76
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    Finance in Africa : Achievements and Challenges (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten Finance in Africa
    Abstract: In spite of shallow financial markets, Sub-Saharan Africa will not escape the repercussions of the global financial crisis. The global turmoil threatens the progress Sub-Saharan Africa has made in financial sector deepening and broadening over the recent years and underlines the importance of continuing and deepening the necessary institutional reforms. In this context it is important to define the role of government in expanding financial sectors in a sustainable and market-friendly manner. Foreign banks have brought more benefits than risks for their host economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, but are certainly not a panacea and not a substitute for institutional and policy reform. The profile of foreign banks, however, has changed, with more and more regional banks emerging. This trend toward regional integration is promising as it might allow the small African financial system to reap benefits from scale economies, but it also requires regulatory and supervisory improvements and coordination across the region
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5020
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  • 77
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    Unpacking Youth Unemployment in Latin America (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cunningham, Wendy Unpacking Youth Unemployment in Latin America
    Abstract: High youth unemployment rates may be a signal of difficult labor market entry for youth or may reflect high churning. The European and United States literature finds the latter conclusion while the Latin American literature suggests the former. This paper uses panel data to examine whether Latin American youth follow OECD patterns or are, indeed, unique. By decomposing transition matrices into propensity to move and rate of separation matrices and estimating duration matrices, the authors find that Latin American youth do follow the OECD trends: their high unemployment reflects high churning while their duration of unemployment is similar to that of non-youth. The paper also finds that young adults (age 19-24) have higher churning rates than youth; most churning occurs between informal wage employment, unemployment, and out-of-the labor force, even for non-poor youth; and unemployment probabilities are similar for men and women when the analysis control for greater churning by young men. The findings suggest that the "first employment" programs that have become popular in the region are not addressing the key constraints to labor market entry for young people and that more attention should be given to job matching, information, and signaling to improve the efficiency of the churning period
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5022
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  • 78
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    Potential Gains From Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fofack, Hippolyte Potential Gains From Capital Flight Repatriation for Sub-Saharan African Countries
    Abstract: Despite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region would go from trailing to leading other developing regions in terms of domestic investment, thus initiating a ‘big-push’-led sustainable long-term economic growth. The paper proposes some strategies for inducing capital flight repatriation, but cautions that the success of this program is contingent on strong political will on the part of African and Western governments and effective coordination and cooperation at the global level
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5024
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  • 79
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    Changes in Cross-Border Trade Costs in the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, 2001-2008 (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Changes in Cross-Border Trade Costs in the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, 2001-2008
    Abstract: The Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, negotiated under auspices of the Arab League, came into force in 1997. Under the agreement all tariffs on goods of Arab origin were to be removed by January 1, 2005. This paper summarizes the results of a firm-level survey in nine countries regarding the implementation of the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area. A majority of respondent companies report that tariffs on intra-regional trade have largely been removed, and that there has been a marked improvement in customs clearance-related procedures. Costs associated with administrative red tape and weaknesses in transport-related infrastructure services are ranked as the most important constraints to intra-regional trade. This suggests that from a policy perspective, efforts to reduce real trade costs deserve priority, including transportation and logistics services. Periodic monitoring and assessment of trade incentives and performance would help governments to benchmark performance and identify priority areas for action, at both the national and the sub-regional levels
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5031
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  • 80
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    Reshaping the International Monetary Architecture : Lessons From Keynes' Plan (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Piffaretti, Nadia F Reshaping the International Monetary Architecture
    Abstract: As the global economy undergoes profound changes, it is becoming apparent that the so-called "Revived Bretton Woods System" has increased the overall vulnerability of the global financial architecture. Therefore, it is worth revisiting the origins of the Bretton Woods conference, and pointing out the relevance for today’s framework of Keynes’ original 1942 plan for an International Clearing Union. This note explores the main characteristics of Keynes' original plan, by revisiting his original writings between 1940 and 1944, and outlining its relevance to the current debate on the international financial architecture. The note suggests that reforms of the international financial architecture should include anchoring the international monetary system on sounder institutional ground
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5034
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  • 81
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    The Value of Vocational Education : High School Type and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Newhouse, David The Value of Vocational Education
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the type of senior high school attended by Indonesian youth and their subsequent labor market outcomes. This topic is very timely, given the government’s recent decision to dramatically expand vocational enrollment. The analysis controls for an unusually rich set of predetermined characteristics, and exploits longitudinal data spanning 14 years to separately identify cohort and age effects. There are four main findings. First, students are sorted into different school types largely on the basis of their entering exam score. Public schools attract the highest-scoring students, while private vocational schools serve the lowest-scoring students. Second, after controlling for a variety of characteristics, including test scores, male public school graduates earn a substantial premium over their privately schooled counterparts. Third, private vocational school graduates fare at least as well as private general graduates, despite coming from more disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Finally, the returns to public vocational education have declined sharply for the most recent cohort of men. This raises important concerns about the current expansion of public vocational education, and the relevance of the male vocational curriculum in an increasingly service-oriented economy
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5035
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  • 82
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    Caste and Punishment : the Legacy of Caste Culture in Norm Enforcement (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hoff, Karla Caste and Punishment
    Abstract: Well-functioning groups enforce social norms that restrain opportunism, but the social structure of a society may encourage or inhibit norm enforcement. This paper studies how the exogenous assignment to different positions in an extreme social hierarchy - the caste system - affects individuals' willingness to punish violations of a cooperation norm. Although the analysis controls for individual wealth, education, and political participation, low-caste individuals exhibit a much lower willingness to punish norm violations that hurt members of their own caste, suggesting a cultural difference across caste status in the concern for members of one’s own community. The lower willingness to punish may inhibit the low caste’s ability to sustain collective action and so may contribute to its economic vulnerability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5040
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  • 83
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    Do Poorer Countries Have Less Capacity for Redistribution? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Do Poorer Countries Have Less Capacity for Redistribution?
    Abstract: Development aid and policy discussions often assume that poorer countries have less internal capacity for redistribution in favor of their poorest citizens. The assumption is tested using data for 90 developing countries. The capacity for redistribution is measured by the marginal tax rate on those who are not poor by rich-country standards that is needed to cover the poverty gap or to provide a poverty-level of basic income, judged by developing-country standards. For most (but not all) countries with annual consumption per capita under
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5046
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 84
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    Measuring Household Usage of Financial Services : Does it Matter How or Whom You Ask? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cull, Robert Measuring Household Usage of Financial Services
    Abstract: In recent years, the number of surveys of access to and use of financial services has multiplied, but little is known about whether the data generated are comparable across countries, or within the same country over time. This paper reports results from a randomized experiment in Ghana to test whether the identity of the respondent and the inclusion of product-specific cues in questions affect the reported rates of household usage of financial services. The analysis shows that rates of household usage are almost identical when the head reports on behalf of the household and when the rate is tabulated from a full enumeration of household use. Randomly selected informants (i.e., non-heads of the household) provide a less complete summary of household use of financial services than the other two methods. The findings also show that for credit from formal institutions, informal sources of savings, and insurance, usage rates are higher when questions are asked about specific financial products rather than about the respondent’s dealings with types of financial institutions. In short, who is asked the questions and the form in which they are asked both matter
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5048
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  • 85
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    Comparing Apples with….Apples : How to Make (More) Sense of Subjective Rankings of Constraints to Business (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hallward-Driemeier, Mary Comparing Apples with….Apples
    Abstract: The use of expert or qualitative surveys to rank countries’ business investment conditions is widespread. However, within the economic literature there are concerns about measurement error and endogeneity based on characteristics of the respondents, raising questions about how well the data reflect the underlying reality they are trying to measure. This paper examines these concerns using data from 79,000 firms in 105 countries. The findings show that first, qualitative rankings correlate well with quantitative measures of the business environment, using both quantitative measures from within the survey and from external sources. Second, there are systematic variations in perceptions based on firm characteristics - focusing in particular on size and growth performance. However, it is not that an optimistic view of the business environment is simply the expression of a firm’s own performance. Rather, firm size and performance affect the relative importance of certain constraints, particularly in areas such as finance, time with officials/inspectors, corruption, and access to reliable electricity. The results also show that much of the variation in subjective responses by firm types is largely due to differences in the objective conditions across firm types. There is little evidence that size and performance have non-linear effects in how constraining a given objective condition is reported to be. Overall, concerns about endogeneity remain in using business environment indicators to explain firm performance, but this stems primarily from the fact that who you are and how well you are doing can affect the conditions you face rather than whether the indicator used is qualitative or quantitative
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5054
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  • 86
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    Endowment Structures, Industrial Dynamics, and Economic Growth (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ju, Jiandong Endowment Structures, Industrial Dynamics, and Economic Growth
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to explore industrial evolution and economic growth in a closed developing economy. The authors show that industries will endogenously upgrade toward the more capital-intensive ones as the capital endowment becomes more abundant. The model features a continuous inverse-V-shaped pattern of industrial evolution driven by capital accumulation: As the capital endowment reaches a certain threshold, a new industry appears, prospers, then declines and finally disappears. While the industry is declining, a more capital-intensive industry appears and booms, ad infinitum. Explicit solutions are obtained to fully characterize the whole dynamics of perpetual structural change and economic growth. Implications for industrial policies are discussed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5055
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  • 87
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    Evaluating SME Support Programs in Chile Using Panel Firm Data (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Available in another form Evaluating SME Support Programs in Chile Using Panel Firm Data
    Abstract: This paper evaluates small and medium enterprise (SME) support programs in Chile using a firm-level panel for the 1992-2006 period on two groups of firms - a treatment group that participated in SME programs and a control group that did not. These unique panel data provide an unprecedented opportunity to address several issues that have plagued impact evaluations of SME programs - selectivity bias from observed and unobserved firm heterogeneity, identification of an appropriate control group, and inability to track firms over a long enough period of time for performance outcomes to be realized. Using difference-in-differences models combined with propensity score matching methods, the paper finds evidence that participation in SME programs in Chile is associated with improvements in intermediate outcomes (training, adoption of new technology and organizational practices), and causally with positive and statistically significant impacts on sales, production, labor productivity, wages and exports. The mixed results of previous studies may be attributable in part to the confounding effects of unobserved heterogeneity motivating selection into programs of firms with relatively low productivity levels, and in part to time-effects of program participation occurring in years after the time horizon of most impact evaluation studies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5082
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 88
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    Competitiveness Assessment of Tourism in Sierra Leone : A Cluster-Based Approach (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Shakya, Mallika Competitiveness Assessment of Tourism in Sierra Leone
    Abstract: Seven years out of brutal conflict, Sierra Leone is now a peaceful and stable country. Yet, its strides toward economic recovery and competitiveness have been modest even in sectors such as tourism, which used to be a major generator of foreign exchange revenues prior to the conflict. This paper presents a cluster-based analysis of the tourism sector in Sierra Leone. The analysis shows that tourism in Sierra Leone draws entirely on basic factor conditions such as natural endowments; high-end lodging, catering, and entertainment services are virtually nonexistent. The cluster mapping exercise reveals that several non-profit organizations are present and active within the Sierra Leone tourism cluster but that the role of commercial enterprises has been somewhat limited. A critical mass of basic service providers has emerged over time, but their functions are often hindered by the absence of a market-based incentive regime and weaknesses in backbone infrastructure services. There is a mismatch of effort by the public and private sectors. An important policy implication arising from the analysis is for Sierra Leone to initiate a joint action among tourism entrepreneurs and policymakers to develop a coherent business strategy toward overcoming the bottlenecks of skill deficiency, policy ineffectiveness, and lack of infrastructure and market access
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5083
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 89
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    Coping With Crises : Why and How To Protect Employment and Earnings (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Paci, Pierella Coping With Crises
    Abstract: Events of the past two years are a reminder that crises are a recurring phenomenon with deep and often protracted impacts on labor markets. This paper examines the challenges inherent in crafting policy responses, with particular attention to developing countries. It focuses on the potential tradeoffs between offsetting adverse short-term impacts and preserving incentives for economic recovery and future growth, and between protecting the most vulnerable and compensating those most immediately impacted. It also highlights how policymakers’ room for maneuver is constrained in crisis times by deteriorating fiscal space, limited institutional capacity, and mounting political pressures. Based on empirical evidence from previous crises, the paper asserts that taking a myopic and reactive approach may be costly and counterproductive. Instead, it advocates a more comprehensive approach, designed to build institutions - such as automatic stabilizers and safety nets - that can deliver a coordinated and coherent policy package. This approach will make crises catalysts for institutional changes and long-run growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5094
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 90
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    Constraints To Growth in Malawi (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lea, Nicholas Constraints To Growth in Malawi
    Abstract: This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi’s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi’s growth story, which directly increases the strength of the export multiplier. The most pressing constraint to growth in Malawi continues to be the regime of exchange rate management. Despite good progress, there is compelling evidence that the rate is still substantially overvalued. Furthermore, it is also likely that the inflow of foreign aid - in excess of 50 percent of exports -contributes to the overvaluation through its large component of recurrent expenditures
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5097
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 91
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    Barriers To Competition in Croatia : the Role of Government Regulation (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (93 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Rosa, Donato Barriers To Competition in Croatia
    Abstract: This paper examines product market policies in Croatia by benchmarking them to OECD countries and highlighting how policies that are more conducive to competition would stimulate a more efficient allocation of resources and, in consequence, facilitate convergence to higher income levels. OECD indicators of overall regulation in product markets indicate that Croatias policies in 2007 were generally more restrictive of competition than were the policies in OECD countries. This is especially true for policies concerned with the degree of state control of the economy and with barriers to entrepreneurship. Regulatory obstacles to trade and foreign direct investment, by contrast, are in line with those of pre-accession European Union countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, and Poland in 2003, as well as Bulgaria and Romania in 2006), albeit well above the OECD average. Regulation of post, electricity, gas, telecoms, air, rail, and road transport, as estimated by the OECD energy transport and communication sectors indicator, is also less liberal than in the OECD, highlighting the positive knock-on effects for the rest of the economy that could derive from further liberalization of network industries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5100
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 92
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    Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Datt, Gaurav Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms ?
    Abstract: The extent to which India's poor have benefited from the country’s economic growth has long been debated. This paper revisits the issues using a new series of consumption-based poverty measures spanning 50 years, and including a 15-year period after economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s. Growth has tended to reduce poverty, including in the post-reform period. There is no robust evidence that the responsiveness of poverty to growth has increased, or decreased, since the reforms began, although there are signs of rising inequality. The impact of growth is higher for poverty measures that reflect distribution below the poverty line, and it is higher using growth rates calculated from household surveys than national accounts. The urban-rural pattern of growth matters to the pace of poverty reduction. However, in marked contrast to the pre-reform period, the post-reform process of urban economic growth has brought significant gains to the rural poor as well as the urban poor
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5103
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  • 93
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    Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (25 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: C. Menichini, Anna Maria Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis
    Abstract: The paper discusses the main features that distinguish inter-firm international trade finance from alternative sources of financing. On the one hand, inter-firm trade finance could help overcome informational problems associated with other lending relationships; on the other, it may contribute to propagate shocks due to the interconnection among firms along credit chains. The paper evaluates the potential effects of a financial crisis on the use of trade credit for firms operating in developing countries. It argues that while the advantages of trade credit might remain largely unexploited due to poor legal institutions, the disadvantages might be exacerbated because of these firms’ greater exposure to a default chain. Based on these arguments, a menu of choices is identified for what policymakers can do to boost firms’ access to inter-firm trade finance in times of crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5112
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  • 94
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    Trade in Health Services : What's in It for Developing Countries ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cattaneo, Olivier Trade in Health Services
    Abstract: This study summarizes the existing knowledge and relevant abstracts and case-studies on the design of health and/or trade reforms and policies. The study aims to contribute to the understanding of the potential benefits and risks - and ways to maximize the former and minimize the latter - of trade in the health sector. It is designed for non-trade (health) experts to understand how trade can help to improve health systems and access to health services, and for trade specialists to understand the specific characteristics of the health sector
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5115
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 95
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    Breaking the Waves ? : Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence ? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Barakat, Bilal Breaking the Waves ?
    Abstract: Much of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as "youth bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5114
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  • 96
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    The Association Between Remarriage and HIV Infection : Evidence From National HIV Surveys in Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Walque, Damien The Association Between Remarriage and HIV Infection
    Abstract: The literature shows that divorced, separated, and widowed individuals in Africa are at significantly increased risk for HIV. Using nationally representative data from 13 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, this paper confirms that formerly married individuals are at significantly higher risk for HIV. The study goes further by examining individuals who have remarried. The results show that remarried individuals form a large portion of the population - usually larger than the divorced, separated, or widowed - and that they also have higher than average HIV prevalence. This large number of high-risk remarried individuals is an important source of vulnerability and further infection that needs to be acknowledged and taken into account in prevention strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5118
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 97
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    Disparities in Labor Market Performance in the Philippines (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Luo, Xubei Disparities in Labor Market Performance in the Philippines
    Abstract: The Philippine economy has been growing rapidly, at an annual growth rate of 5 percent over the past five years. Such decent growth in gross domestic product, however, did not translate into an increase in household income. Wage income declined in real terms. The poverty headcount increased slightly. The fruits of economic growth were not shared equally across the country. Challenges remain to create more jobs to keep pace with the rapidly growing active population. Using the Philippines Labor Force Survey data (2003-2007), this paper reviews the disparities in labor market performance and examines the contribution of regional and individual characteristics. The results show that real wages declined and disparities widened between the National Capital Region and other islands. The youth, less educated, and women face more challenges in finding employment with a decent salary, other things being equal. Disparities in labor market performance are largely associated with the difference in regional structure and human capital endowment. Individual characteristics account for roughly one-third of the difference in wages between the National Capital Region and other regions; regional structures and other unobservable factors account for two-thirds of the difference
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5124
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  • 98
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    Regionalizing Telecommunications Reform in West Africa (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kessides, Ioannis N Regionalizing Telecommunications Reform in West Africa
    Abstract: In recent years, there has been an increasing recognition that significant welfare gains could be realized through deep forms of regional integration which entail harmonization of legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks. Reforms that reduce cross-border transaction costs and improve the performance of “backbone” infrastructure services are arguably even more important for the creation of an open, unified regional economic space than trade policy reforms narrowly defined. This paper assesses the potential gains from regionalized telecommunications policy in West Africa. To this end, the paper: (i) discusses how regional cooperation can overcome national limits in technical expertise, enhance the capacity of nations credibly to commit to stable regulatory policy, and ultimately facilitate infrastructure investment in the region; (ii) identifies trade-distorting regulations that inhibit opportunities for regional trade and economic development, and so are good candidates for regional trade negotiations to reduce indirect trade barriers; and (iii) describes substantive elements of a harmonized regional regulatory policy that can deliver immediate performance benefits
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5126
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 99
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    Time As A Determinant of Comparative Advantage (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Li, Yue Time As A Determinant of Comparative Advantage
    Abstract: It is assumed that added time to export adds cost to and lowers the volume of trade. Time delays may also affect the composition of trade and can disproportionately reduce trade in time-sensitive goods. This paper investigates the validity of these propositions using the World Bank Doing Business database and Enterprise Surveys for 64 developing countries. The authors find that in countries where there is longer time needed to export firms in time-sensitive industries are less likely to become exporters. Moreover, firms that do export have lower export intensities. Their findings imply that time to export is a significant determinant of comparative advantage. For example, consider two industries that have the same export probability and intensity - but differ in time-sensitivity by one standard deviation. Action taken to cut time to export by 50 percent for one industry opens a 6 percentage point difference between the export probabilities of the two industries. In addition, steps to cut time delays increase export intensities by 1.9 percentage points. This impact applies to industries with different productivity levels - and those in developing countries with different income levels
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5128
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  • 100
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    Export Promotion Agencies Revisited (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies Revisited
    Abstract: The number of national export promotion agencies has tripled over the past two decades. Although more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. The agencies were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's export promotion agencies and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. The results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. The identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as export promotion agencies are concerned, small is beautiful
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5125
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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