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  • Kose, M. Ayhan  (32)
  • Matsuoka, Hideaki  (1)
  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?
    Abstract: The seven largest emerging market economies-China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey-constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, called EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. The authors provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. They report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8093
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global economic prospects : a fragile recovery (2017)
    Washington, D.C : World Bank Group
    Details
    ISBN: 1464810249 , 9781464810244
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (x, 124 Seiten) , illustrations , 28 cm
    Series Statement: A World Bank Group flagship report
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Economic development ; Finance
    Abstract: Global outlook : a fragile recovery -- Special focus 1 : Debt dynamics in emerging market and developing economies : time to act? -- Special focus 2 : Arm's-length trade : a source of post-crisis trade weakness -- Regional outlooks.
    Note: Includes bibliographical references
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1024-4
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 13
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    Online Resource
    Global waves of debt : causes and consequences (2021)
    Washington,D.C. : World Bank Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxi, 283 Seiten)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1544-7
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 14
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    Online Resource
    A Decade after the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (432 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1527-0
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 15
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    Online Resource
    What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? : Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
    Keywords: Business Cycle ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Disease Control and Prevention ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Trends ; Global Recession ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Pandemic Impact ; Private Debt ; Public Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid buildup of debt in emerging market and developing economies-dubbed the "fourth wave" of debt-had been underway. Because of the sharp increase in debt during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, the fourth wave of debt has turned into a tsunami and become even more dangerous. Second, five years after past global recessions, global government debt continued to increase. In light of this historical record, and given large financing gaps and significant investment needs in many countries, debt levels will likely continue to rise in the near future. Third, debt resolution has become more complicated because of a highly fragmented creditor base, a lack of transparency in debt reporting, and a legacy stock of government debt without collective action clauses. National policy makers and the global community need to act rapidly and forcefully ensure that the fourth wave does not end with a string of debt crises in emerging market and developing economies as earlier debt waves did
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9871
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 16
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    Online Resource
    Potential Growth Prospects : Risks, Rewards, and Policies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
    Keywords: Emerging Markets ; Growth Expectations ; Human Capital Accumulation ; Labor Force Participation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Production Function ; Slow Growth ; Social Development
    Abstract: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario-by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year-if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10355
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 17
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    Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important are Oil Prices? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
    Keywords: Commodities ; Domestic Shock ; Energy ; Exchange Rates ; Favar Model ; Global Shock ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Prices
    Abstract: This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10283
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global inflation synchronization (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8768
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Global Inflation Synchronization
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. The authors' methodology allows them to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. The paper reports three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8768
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 19
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    Online Resource
    Inflation expectations : review and evidence (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8785
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, Ayhan Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8785
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 20
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    Online Resource
    Negative Interest Rate Policies : Sources and Implications (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arteta, Carlos Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
    Abstract: Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. It reports four main results. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRP are conceptually analogous to those under conventional monetary policy but NIRP present complications that could limit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introduction of NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolved broadly as implied by the standard transmission channels. Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability, particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero or if NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time. Potential adverse consequences include the erosion of profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries, and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been no significant evidence that financial stability has been compromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implications of NIRP for emerging market and developing economies are mostly similar to those of other unconventional monetary policy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policy maker's toolkit but, given their domestic and global implications, these policies need to be handled with care to secure their benefits while mitigating risks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7791
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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