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  • McKenzie, David  (72)
  • Demirguc-Kunt, Asli  (53)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (125)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors : An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (68 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Iacovone, Leonardo Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program
    Keywords: Bayesian Impact Evaluation ; Competition Policy ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Management ; Prior Elicitation ; Private Sector Development ; Randomized Experiment ; Social Policy Evaluation Method
    Abstract: Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10274
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Government Support and Firm Performance during COVID-19 (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bruhn, Miriam Government Support and Firm Performance during COVID-19
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Employment ; Government ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Pandemic ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This paper assesses the medium-run effects of government support to firms during the COVID-19 crisis and whether the effectiveness of this support varied with its timing. Using data from three rounds of the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys carried out between May 2020 and April 2022, it relates government support in Round 1 (received in the first half of 2020) and Round 2 (received during the second half of 2020 or early 2021) with firm performance in Round 3 (generally mid-2021). Controlling for a host of background characteristics, firms that received support in Round 1 performed better in terms of Round 3 sales, but only if they did not have continued support. Firms that also received support in Round 2 had similar Round 3 sales as those that received no support and were more likely to decrease employment. Firms that received government support only in Round 2 experienced no boost in Round 3 performance. The findings suggest that government support should be provided promptly, but it should also be phased out quickly
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10641
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  • 3
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    Is there Still a Role for Direct Government Support to Firms in Developing Countries? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (12 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Is there Still a Role for Direct Government Support to Firms in Developing Countries?
    Keywords: Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Firm Support ; Green Growth Agenda ; Impact Evaluation ; Industrial Economics ; Industrial Policy ; Industry ; Macroeconomic Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Subsidized Loans
    Abstract: Should governments in developing countries directly support firms with policies such as grants, subsidized loans, and training and consulting programs, or should they instead just aim to enact sensible regulatory and macroeconomic policies and not attempt to engage in industrial policy While industrial policy has gained renewed attention in developed economies, it faces considerable skepticism in developing countries scarred by previous experiences and facing limited fiscal space. This paper discusses the rationale for government involvement, and then lessons from a recent research agenda in development economics on how to target these programs, on whether they induce firms to undertake additional activities, on avoiding political capture, and on how these interact with competition. This work shows that these policies can deliver some of their promised benefits, but that there is still much to learn and the need for systematic and serious attempts at prospective impact evaluation as new policies are launched
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10628
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  • 4
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    Migration, Families, and Counterfactual Families (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (53 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bertoli, Simone Migration, Families, and Counterfactual Families
    Keywords: Counterfactual Reasoning ; Family Formation ; Human Rights ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Migrant Policy ; Migrants Families ; Migration ; Remittances ; Status Quo Bias
    Abstract: Migration changes how families form and dissolve, and how one should conceptualize the family. This has implications for thinking about how the migration decision is modelled when individuals are unable to picture the counterfactual families they may have. Differences in marital status can induce two otherwise identical individuals to make different migration decisions. It also has implications for attempts to causally estimate impacts of migration, when the family composition changes with the migration decision itself. This paper shows empirically that changing marital status after migration is widespread, and that the traditional model of a fixed family sending off a migrant who remains part of that same family only describes a minority of migrants moving from developing countries to the U.S. The authors draw out lessons from thinking about counterfactual families for empirical research and for migration policy
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10626
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  • 5
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    The Global Findex Database 2021 : Financial inclusion, digital payments, and resilience in the age of covid-19 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464818974
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (202 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: The fourth edition of Global Findex--the world's most comprehensive database on financial inclusion--offers a lens into how people accessed and used financial services during COVID-19, when mobility restrictions and health policies drove increased demand for digital services of all kinds. Published every three years since 2011, Findex is the only global demand-side data source allowing for global and regional cross-country analysis to provide a rigorous and multidimensional picture of how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage financial risks. Findex 2021 data were collected from national representative surveys of about 130,000 adults in more than 120 economies. The latest edition includes new series measuring financial health and resilience and contains more granular data on digital payments adoption, including merchant and government payments. The Global Findex is an indispensable resource for financial service practitioners, policy makers, researchers, and development professionals--
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  • 6
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    Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? : The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Protect Incomes or Protect Jobs? The Role of Social Policies in Post-Pandemic Recovery
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Economic Intervention Effectiveness ; Employment and Unemployment ; Job Protection Measures ; Job Retention ; Labor Market Policy ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Pandemic Stimulus Effectiveness ; Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment Insurance
    Abstract: This paper examines the effectiveness of income protection and job protection policies for the post-pandemic economic recovery of the second half of 2020 through 2021. The paper is based on a new data set of the budgets of social protection programs implemented as a part of the pandemic stimulus package in 154 countries. The empirical analysis shows that, in the short run, higher expenditure on job protection measures is associated with more robust gross domestic product growth, increased employment, and decreased inactivity and poverty rates compared to the expansion of income protection programs. Both policies had a significant economic impact only in countries with weaker pre-pandemic social insurance systems. In countries with broader coverage of the social insurance system, the income and job protection programs appear to have had a limited impact on post-pandemic recovery. Because the structural economic changes induced by the pandemic are expected to materialize fully in several years, more research is needed to understand the longer-term effects of job protection and income protection policies on labor markets and economic recovery
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10166
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  • 7
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    Capacity Building as a Route to Export Market Expansion : A Six-Country Experiment in the Western Balkans (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (33 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ana P., Cusolito Capacity Building as a Route to Export Market Expansion: A Six-Country Experiment in the Western Balkans
    Keywords: Broadcast and Media ; Consulting ; Customer Acquisition ; Digital Presence ; Export Competitiveness ; Export Market Expansion ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics and Trade ; Marketing Training ; Private Sector Development ; Skills Development and Labor Force Training ; Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) ; Small and Medium Size Enterprises ; Training
    Abstract: The limited market size of many small emerging economies is a key constraint to the growth of innovative small and medium enterprises. Exporting offers a potential solution, but firms may struggle to locate and appeal to foreign buyers. A six-country randomized experiment was conducted with 225 firms in the Western Balkans to test the effectiveness of 30 hours of live group-based training and 5 hours of one-on-one remote consulting in overcoming these constraints. Treated firms used techniques such as search engine optimization and improved Facebook content to increase their digital presence and better reach foreign customers. A year later, positive and significant impacts are found on the number of customers, and a significant intensive margin increase in export sales. Qualitative interviews suggest this improvement came from a combination of sector-specific advice on market expansion, and through an encouragement effect which gave entrepreneurs the confidence to try new sales strategies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10256
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  • 8
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    Global Bank Lending under Climate Policy (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Global Bank Lending under Climate Policy
    Keywords: Carbon Emmision Reduction Policy ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Climate Change Policy and Regulation ; Climate Policy Index ; Environment ; Environmental Performance ; Foreign Subsidiary Banks ; Global Banks Environmental Performance ; Green Capital Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: What is the response of bank foreign subsidiaries to climate policy in their host countries This paper finds that global banks with high environmental performance increase their presence in countries after local authorities strengthen their climate-related actions. Through their foreign subsidiaries, these banks expand their credit by 4.6 percent following an increase of one-standard deviation in the host country's climate policy index. Importantly, the paper does not find evidence that banks with low environmental scores exit in response to climate initiatives. The findings show that strengthening climate policy might be a win-win strategy for policymakers in addition to addressing carbon emission reduction, climate-related initiatives also appear to attract foreign capital from lenders with strong preferences for green assets
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10266
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  • 9
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    Field and Natural Experiments in Migration (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Field and Natural Experiments in Migration
    Keywords: Difference-In-Differences ; Economic Growth ; Experimental Methods ; Instrumental Variables ; Migration Experiments ; Natural Experiment ; Regression Discontinuity ; Social Protection and Labor
    Abstract: Many research and policy questions surrounding migration are causal questions. What causes people to migrate? What are the consequences of migration for the migrants, their families, and their communities? Answering these questions requires dealing with the self-selection inherent in migration choices. Field and natural experiments offer methodological approaches that enable answering these causal questions. This paper discusses the key conceptual and logistical issues that face applied researchers when applying these methods to the study of migration, as well as providing guidance for practitioners and policymakers in assessing the credibility of causal claims. For randomized experiments, this includes providing a framework for thinking through what can be randomized; discussing key measurement and design issues that arise from issues such as migration being a rare event, and in measuring welfare changes when people change locations; as well as discussing ethical issues that can arise. The paper then outlines what makes for a good natural experiment in the context of migration, and discusses the implications of recent econometric work for the use of difference-indifferences, instrumental variables (and especially shift-share instruments), and regression discontinuity methods in migration research. A key lesson from this recent work is that it is not meaningful to talk about ?the? impact of migration, but rather impacts are likely to be heterogeneous, affecting both the validity and interpretation of causal estimates
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10250
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  • 10
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    Fears and Tears : Should More People be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and what Stops this Movement? (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Fears and Tears: Should More People be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and what Stops this Movement?
    Keywords: Attachment To Home ; Benefits of Urbanization ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Constraints That Limit Movement ; Economics of Migration ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Migrations and Resettlements ; Internal Relocation ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Mental Health ; Migration Policy ; Psychological Uncertainty of Relocation ; Wealth and Wellbeing
    Abstract: Only one in seven of the world's population has ever migrated, despite the enormous gains in income possible through international and internal movement. This paper examines the evidence for different explanations given in the economics literature for this lack of movement and their implications for policy. Incorrect information about the gains to migrating, liquidity constraints that prevent poor people paying the costs of moving, and high costs of movement arising from both physical transportation costs and policy barriers all inhibit movement and offer scope for policy efforts to inform, provide credit, and lower moving costs. However, the economics literature has paid less attention to the fears people have when faced with the uncertainty of moving to a new place, and to the reasons behind the tears they shed when moving. While these tears reveal the attachment people have to particular places, this attachment is not fixed, but itself changes with migration experiences. Psychological factors such as a bias toward the status quo and the inability to picture what one is giving up by not migrating can result in people not moving, even when they would benefit from movement and are not constrained by finances or policy barriers from doing so. This suggests new avenues for policy interventions that can help individuals better visualize the opportunity costs of not moving, alleviate their uncertainties, and help shift their default behavior from not migrating
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10128
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  • 11
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    How has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? : Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in the Gambia (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Bah, Tijan L How has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe and to a Neighboring African Country? Survey Evidence and a Salience Experiment in the Gambia
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9658
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  • 12
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    Banking Research in the Time of COVID-19 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (84 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Berger, Allen N Banking Research in the Time of COVID-19
    Keywords: Bailouts ; Banking Sector ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Markets and Capital Flows ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Global Financial Crisis ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Tarp
    Abstract: Despite the devastating worldwide human and economic tolls of the COVID-19 crisis, it has created some positive economic and financial surprises and opportunities for research. This paper highlights two such favorable surprises -the shortest U.S. recession on record and the avoidance of any banking crisis-and a number of research opportunities. The paper ties the "economic surprise" of the short recession to the speed and size of U.S. stimulus programs during COVID-19-faster and larger than for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). It connects the "financial surprise" of the resilient banking sector to prudential policies put in place during and after the GFC that fortified U.S. banks prior to COVID-19. These twin "surprises" are also mutually reinforcing-if either the economy or banking system had failed, so would the other. The paper also reviews extant COVID-19 banking research and suggests paths for future research. It recommends that particular attention be paid to research outside of the U.S.-where fewer favorable "surprises" may be present-as the best way to advance knowledge in this area
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9782
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  • 13
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    Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the Lab (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (49 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Batista, Catia Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the Lab
    Keywords: Destination Choice ; Employment and Unemployment ; International Economics and Trade ; International Migration ; Lab Experiment ; Migrant Selection ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: The predictions of different classic migration theories are tested by using incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants decide between working in different destinations. First, the authors test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multi-destination choice as they vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. The standard income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, these lab experiments are used to investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption holds. The results show that it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once the risk of unemployment and incomplete information is added, independence of irrelevant alternatives no longer holds for about 20 percent of the sample
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9751
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  • 14
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    Competition and Firm Recovery Post-COVID-19 (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Bruhn, Miriam Competition and Firm Recovery Post-COVID-19
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Competitiveness and Competition Policy ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Creative Destruction ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Recovery ; Enterprise Survey ; Firm Competition ; Government Support ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic Response ; Private Sector Development ; Private Sector Economics ; Productivity
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activity across firms, and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8,000 firms in 23 emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, matched with 2019 Enterprise Surveys data. It finds that during the COVID-19 crisis, economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strong competition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries with a weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firms during the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows that government support measures implemented in response to the crisis may have adverse effects on competition and productivity growth since support went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9851
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  • 15
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    Effects of Public Sector Wages on Corruption : Wage Inequality Matters (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Effects of Public Sector Wages on Corruption: Wage Inequality Matters
    Abstract: The paper uses a new country-level, panel data set to study the effect of public sector wages on corruption. The results show that wage inequality in the public sector is an important determinant of the effectiveness of anti-corruption policies. Increasing the wages of public officials could help reduce corruption in countries with low public sector wage inequality. In countries where public sector wages are highly unequal, however, raising the wages of government employees could increase corruption. These results are robust to a wide range of empirical model specifications, estimation methods, and distributional assumptions. The relation persists when controlling for latent omitted variables, using the share of contracts in the private sector as an instrument for the public-private wage differential. Combining increases in public sector wages with policies affecting the wage distribution could help policy makers design cost-effective programs to reduce corruption in their countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9643
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  • 16
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    What Prevents More Small Firms from Using Professional Business Services? : An Information and Quality-Rating Experiment in Nigeria (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Anderson, Stephen J What Prevents More Small Firms from Using Professional Business Services? An Information and Quality-Rating Experiment in Nigeria
    Abstract: Why do more small firms in developing countries not use the market for professional business services like accounting, marketing, and human resource specialists? Two key reasons may be that firms lack information about the availability of these services, and that they struggle to distinguish the quality of good versus bad providers. A brand recognition exercise finds that most small firms are unaware of most providers in this market, and a survey of service providers reveals that they largely rely on word-of-mouth and informal reputation mechanisms for acquiring customers. This study set up a business services marketplace that contains information about the different providers present in the market and used mystery shopper visits to develop a quality ratings system. A randomized experiment with more than 1,000 firms provided access to this marketplace to the treatment group and randomized whether firms received just information or also quality ratings. The provision of quality ratings information shifts small firms' preferences over which provider they would like to use, increasing the average quality rating of their preferred providers by 0.2 to 0.4 ratings points out of 5. However, neither the provision of information nor these quality ratings had any significant impact on the likelihood that small firms go on to hire a business service provider over the subsequent six months. The results suggest that alleviating information frictions alone is insufficient to increase usage of professional business services
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9614
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  • 17
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    Aspirations and Financial Decisions : Experimental Evidence from the Philippines (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: McKenzie, David Aspirations and Financial Decisions: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines
    Abstract: A randomized experiment among poor entrepreneurs tested the impact of exogenously inducing higher financial aspirations. In theory, raising aspirations could have positive effects by inducing higher effort, but could also reduce effort if unmet aspirations lead to frustration. Treatment resulted in more ambitious savings goals, but nearly all individuals fell far short of reaching these goals. Two years later, treated individuals had not saved more, and actually had lower borrowing and business investments. Treatment also reduced belief in the amount of control over one's life. Setting aspirations too high can lead to frustration, leading individuals to reduce their economic investments
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9586
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  • 18
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    The Global Findex Database 2017 : Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution (2018)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9781464812682
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (148 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: In 2011 the World Bank-with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation-launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Incorporated, the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account-the unbanked-as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures-along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials-are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0
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  • 19
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    Measuring the Effectiveness of Service Delivery : Delivery of Government Provided Goods and Services in India (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Measuring the Effectiveness of Service Delivery: Delivery of Government Provided Goods and Services in India
    Abstract: This paper uses new survey data to measure the government's capacity to deliver goods and services in a manner that includes: high coverage of the population; equal access; and high quality of service delivery. The paper finds variation in these indicators across and within Indian states. Overall: (i) access to government provided goods and services is low-about 60 percent of the surveyed population are unable to apply for goods and services they self-report needing; (ii) inequality in access is high-women and poor adults are more likely to report an inability to apply for goods and services they need; and (iii) less than a third of the respondents who did manage to apply for a government delivered good or service found the application process to be easy. Access can be improved by reducing application costs and processing times, simplifying the application process, and providing alternative channels to receive applications
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8207
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  • 20
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    Growing Markets through Business Training for Female Entrepreneurs : A Market-Level Randomized Experiment in Kenya (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Growing Markets through Business Training for Female Entrepreneurs: A Market-Level Randomized Experiment in Kenya
    Abstract: A common concern with efforts to directly help some small businesses to grow is that their growth comes at the expense of their unassisted competitors. This study tests this possibility using a two-stage randomized experiment in Kenya. The experiment randomizes business training at the market level, and then within markets to selected businesses. Three years after training, the treated businesses are selling more, earn higher profits, and their owners have higher well-being. There is no evidence of negative spillovers on the competing businesses, and the markets as a whole appear to have grown in terms of number of customers and sales volumes. This market growth appears to come from enhanced customer service and new product introduction, generating more customers and more sales from existing customers. As a result, business growth in underdeveloped markets is possible without taking sales away from nontreated businesses
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7993
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  • 21
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    How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence
    Abstract: Jobs are the number one policy concern of policy makers in many countries. The global financial crisis, rising demographic pressures, high unemployment rates, and concerns over automation all make it seem imperative that policy makers employ increasingly more active labor market policies. This paper critically examines recent evaluations of labor market policies that have provided vocational training, wage subsidies, job search assistance, and assistance moving to argue that many active labor market policies are much less effective than policymakers typically assume. Many of these evaluations find no significant impacts on either employment or earnings. One reason is that urban labor markets appear to work reasonably well in many cases, with fewer market failures than is often thought. As a result, there is less of a role for many traditional active labor market policies than is common practice. The review then discusses examples of job creation policies that do seem to offer promise, and concludes with lessons for impact evaluation and policy is this area
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8011
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  • 22
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    Learning the Impact of Financial Education When Take-Up Is Low (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ibarra, Gabriel Lara Learning the Impact of Financial Education When Take-Up Is Low
    Abstract: Financial education programs are increasingly offered by governments, nonprofits, and financial institutions. However, voluntary participation rates in such programs are often very low, posing a severe challenge for randomized experiments attempting to measure their impact. This study uses a large experiment on more than 100,000 credit card clients in Mexico. The study shows how the richness of financial data allows combining nonexperimental methods with the experiment to yield credible measures of impact, even with take-up rates below 1 percent. The findings show that a financial education workshop and personalized coaching result in a higher likelihood of paying credit cards on time, and of making more than the minimum payment, but do not reduce spending, resulting in higher profitability for the bank
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8238
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  • 23
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    SME Finance (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ayyagari, Meghana SME Finance
    Abstract: This paper takes stock of the empirical evidence on the financing challenges faced by small and medium enterprises, especially in developing countries. The paper first discusses the institutional constraints that impede access to finance, including the lack of reliable credit information, lack of suitable collateral, and weak legal institutions. It next highlights firm heterogeneity among small and medium enterprises in accessing finance. The focus is on various policies and reforms that have been shown to be effective in improving access to credit for small and medium enterprises. The paper concludes by highlighting areas where new research could be effective
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8241
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  • 24
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    Making It Easier to Apply for a Bank Account : A Study of the Indian Market (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Making It Easier to Apply for a Bank Account: A Study of the Indian Market
    Abstract: This paper draws on new individual-level survey data from India to study the costs of opening an account and the efficiency of the account application process. The data show a recent increase in account ownership, especially by women and poor adults. The data also suggest that India's flagship financial inclusion program, the Jan Dhan Yojana scheme, has made it easier to get an account, through lower costs and greater ease of applying. Yet despite the scheme's initial successes, people who wish to apply for an account continue to incur a range of costs. The survey results suggest several recommendations that could improve the account application process and increase ownership and usage of accounts
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8205
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  • 25
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    Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth: A Review of Recent Empirical Evidence (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth: A Review of Recent Empirical Evidence
    Abstract: There is growing evidence that appropriate financial services have substantial benefits for consumers, especially women and poor adults. This paper provides an overview of financial inclusion around the world and reviews the recent empirical evidence on how the use of financial products-such as payments services, savings accounts, loans, and insurance-can contribute to inclusive growth and economic development. This paper also discusses some of the challenges to achieving greater financial inclusion and directions for future research
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8040
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  • 26
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    The Microfinance Business Model : Enduring Subsidy and Modest Profit (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (63 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cull, Robert The Microfinance Business Model: Enduring Subsidy and Modest Profit
    Abstract: Recent evidence suggests only modest social and economic impacts of microfinance. Favorable cost-benefit ratios then depend on low costs. This paper uses proprietary data on 1,335 microfinance institutions between 2005 and 2009, jointly serving 80.1 million borrowers, to calculate the costs of microfinance and other elements of the microfinance business model. It calculates that on average, subsidies amounted to
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7786
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  • 27
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    Saving for Old Age (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Saving for Old Age
    Abstract: Countries around the world face a retirement crisis brought on by aging populations, declining birthrates, and fiscal shortfalls. As a result, policy makers increasingly seek to understand retirement savings patterns, a crucial component of the safety net for the elderly. Drawing on the 2014 Global Findex database, which provides individual-level data on the use of financial products in more than 140 countries, this paper examines how adults save for old age. It finds that about 25 percent of adults worldwide save for old age, with rates exceeding 35 percent in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies and the East Asia and Pacific region. On average, men are slightly more likely than women to save for this purpose, but the gender gap is deeper in developing countries. Worldwide, saving for old age is more common among older adults, more educated adults, and adults who own accounts. Adults in countries with English legal origin, and with high savings rates, are also more likely to save for old age. The paper also finds that measures to increase trust in the financial system, such as the safety net/moral hazard index based on deposit insurance, lead to higher rates of saving for old age. Finally, the paper finds little evidence of substitution between pension system provisions and contribution rates with saving for old age
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7693
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  • 28
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    Can Enhancing the Benefits of Formalization Induce Informal Firms to Become Formal? Experimental Evidence from Benin (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Benhassine, Najy Can Enhancing the Benefits of Formalization Induce Informal Firms to Become Formal? Experimental Evidence from Benin
    Abstract: Governments around the world have introduced reforms to attempt to make it easier for informal firms to formalize. However, most informal firms have not gone on to become formal, especially when tax registration is involved. A randomized experiment based around the introduction of the entreprenant legal status in Benin is used to provide evidence from an African context on the willingness of informal firms to register after introducing a simple, free registration process, and to test the effectiveness of supplementary efforts to enhance the presumed benefits of formalization by facilitating its links to government training programs, support to open bank accounts, and tax mediation services. Few firms register when just given information about the new regime, but 9.6 percentage points more register when they were visited in person and the benefits were explained. The full package of supplementary efforts boosts the impact on the formalization rate to 16.3 percentage points, demonstrating that enhancing the benefits of formalization does induce more firms to formalize. Firms that are larger, and that look more like formal firms to begin with, are more likely to formalize, providing guidance for better targeting of such policies. However, formalization appears to offer limited benefits to the firms, and the costs of personalized assistance are high, suggesting that such enhanced formalization efforts are unlikely to pass cost-benefit tests
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7900
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  • 29
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    Can Business Owners Form Accurate Counterfactuals? : Eliciting Treatment and Control Beliefs about Their Outcomes in the Alternative Treatment Status (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Can Business Owners Form Accurate Counterfactuals? : Eliciting Treatment and Control Beliefs about Their Outcomes in the Alternative Treatment Status
    Abstract: A survey of participants in a large-scale business plan competition experiment, in which winners received an average of US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7668
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 30
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    How Does Long-Term Finance Affect Economic Volatility? (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli How Does Long-Term Finance Affect Economic Volatility?
    Abstract: This paper examines how the ability to access long-term debt affects firm-level growth volatility. The analysis finds that firms in industries with stronger preference to use long-term finance relative to short-term finance experience lower growth volatility in countries with better-developed financial systems, as these firms may benefit from reduced refinancing risk. Institutions that facilitate the availability of credit information and contract enforcement mitigate the refinancing risk and therefore growth volatility associated with short-term financing. Increased availability of long-term finance reduces growth volatility in crisis as well as non-crisis periods
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7535
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  • 31
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    Labor Drops : Experimental Evidence on the Return to Additional Labor in Microenterprises (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als de Mel, Suresh Labor Drops: Experimental Evidence on the Return to Additional Labor in Microenterprises
    Abstract: The majority of enterprises in many developing countries have no paid workers. This paper reports on a field experiment conducted in Sri Lanka that provided wage subsidies to randomly chosen microenterprises to test whether hiring additional labor would benefit such firms. In the presence of labor market frictions, a short-term subsidy could have a lasting impact on firm employment. Using 12 rounds of surveys to track dynamics four years after the end of the subsidy, the study finds that firms increased employment during the subsidy period, but there was no lasting impact on employment, profitability, or sales. Two supplementary interventions and treatment heterogeneity suggest the lack of impact is not due to complementarities with capital or management skills, and detailed survey data help rule out a number of theoretical mechanisms that could result in sub-optimally low employment. The study concludes that the urban labor market facing microenterprises does not have large frictions that would prevent own-account workers from becoming employers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7924
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  • 32
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    Business Practices in Small Firms in Developing Countries (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Business Practices in Small Firms in Developing Countries
    Abstract: Management has a large effect on the productivity of large firms. But does management matter in micro and small firms, where the majority of the labor force in developing countries works? This study developed 26 questions that measure business practices in marketing, stock-keeping, record-keeping, and financial planning. These questions have been administered in surveys in Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka. This paper shows that variation in business practices explains as much of the variation in outcomes-sales, profits, and labor productivity and total factor productivity-in microenterprises as in larger enterprises. Panel data from three countries indicate that better business practices predict higher survival rates and faster sales growth. The effect of business practices is robust to including many measures of the owner's human capital. The analysis finds that owners with higher human capital, children of entrepreneurs, and firms with employees employ better business practices. Competition has less robust effects
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7405
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  • 33
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    Are Large Firms Born or Made? Evidence from Developing Countries (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ayyagari, Meghana Are Large Firms Born or Made? Evidence from Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper uses survey data from 120 developing countries to compare the role of institutions with firm characteristics at the time of creation of the firm in explaining the size, growth, and productivity of firms over their lifecycle. The study finds that firm-level characteristics have comparable, and sometimes even larger, power than institutional factors in predicting size and growth, but not productivity. In particular, size at birth plays a key role in predicting variation in firm size and growth since birth over the firm lifecycle, whereas country factors dominate in predicting variation in labor productivity over the firm lifecycle. The study also finds that older firms are larger, partly because of the selection of more efficient firms. The findings point to the importance of initial founding conditions in explaining variations in size and growth over the firm lifecycle across countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7406
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  • 34
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    Identifying and Spurring High-Growth Entrepreneurship : Experimental Evidence from a Business Plan Competition (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (74 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David Identifying and Spurring High-Growth Entrepreneurship: Experimental Evidence from a Business Plan Competition
    Abstract: Almost all firms in developing countries have fewer than 10 workers, with the modal firm consisting of just the owner. Are there potential high-growth entrepreneurs with the ability to grow their firms beyond this size? And, if so, can public policy help alleviate the constraints that prevent these entrepreneurs from doing so? A large-scale national business plan competition in Nigeria is used to help provide evidence on these two questions. The competition was launched with much fanfare, and attracted almost 24,000 entrants. Random assignment was used to select some of the winners from a pool of semi-finalists, with US
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7391
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  • 35
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    The Global Findex Database 2014 : Measuring Financial Inclusion around the World (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (97 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli The Global Findex Database 2014
    Abstract: The Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, launched by the World Bank in 2011, provides comparable indicators showing how people around the world save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The 2014 edition of the database reveals that 62 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a bank or another type of financial institution or with a mobile money provider. Between 2011 and 2014, 700 million adults became account holders while the number of those without an account-the unbanked-dropped by 20 percent to 2 billion. What drove this increase in account ownership? A growth in account penetration of 13 percentage points in developing economies and innovations in technology-particularly mobile money, which is helping to rapidly expand access to financial services in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with these gains, the data also show that big opportunities remain to increase financial inclusion, especially among women and poor people. Governments and the private sector can play a pivotal role by shifting the payment of wages and government transfers from cash into accounts. There are also large opportunities to spur greater use of accounts, allowing those who already have one to benefit more fully from financial inclusion. In developing economies 1.3 billion adults with an account pay utility bills in cash, and more than half a billion pay school fees in cash. Digitizing payments like these would enable account holders to make the payments in a way that is easier, more affordable, and more secure
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7255
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  • 36
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    Finding a Path to Formalization in Benin : Early Results after the Introduction of the Entreprenant Legal Status (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Benhassine, Najy Finding a Path to Formalization in Benin: Early Results after the Introduction of the Entreprenant Legal Status
    Abstract: In April 2014, the Government of Benin launched the entreprenant status, a simplified and free legal regime offered to small informal businesses to enter the formal economy. This paper presents the short-term results of a randomized impact evaluation testing three different versions of the entreprenant status on business registration decisions, each version including incremental incentives to registration: (i) information on the new legal status and its benefits, (ii) business training, counseling services, and support to open a bank account, (iii) tax mediation services. The study included 3,600 informal businesses operating with a fixed location in Cotonou, Benin, which were randomly allocated between three treatment groups and one control group. One year after the program launch, all versions of the program had significant impact on formalization rates. The impact was 9.1 percentage points in the first treatment group; 13 percentage points in the second group; and 15.8 percentage points in the last group. The program had a higher impact on male business owners, with more education, operating outside Dantokpa Market, in sectors other than trade, and that before being offered the incentives to formalization had characteristics similar to businesses that were already formal. Data from a second follow-up survey, which is expected to take place in March 2016, will explore the impacts on other outcomes, like business performances or access to banking
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7510
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  • 37
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    The Long-Term Impacts of International Migration : Evidence from a Lottery (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gibson, John The Long-Term Impacts of International Migration: Evidence from a Lottery
    Abstract: This study examines the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year, despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large, sustained benefits to the migrants' immediate family, who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast, the study finds no measureable impact on extended family
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7495
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  • 38
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    The Demand for, and Impact of, Youth Internships : Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Yemen (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David The Demand for, and Impact of, Youth Internships: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Yemen
    Abstract: This paper evaluates a youth internship program in the Republic of Yemen that provided firms with a 50 percent subsidy to hire recent graduates of universities and vocational schools. The first round of the program took place in 2014 and required both firms and youth to apply for the program. The paper examines the demand for such a program, and finds that in the context of an economy facing substantial political and economic uncertainty, it appears there is an oversupply of graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, and a relative undersupply of graduates in marketing and business. Conditional on the types of graduates firms were looking to hire as interns, applicants were then randomly chosen for the program. Receiving an internship resulted in an almost doubling of work experience in 2014, and a 73 percent increase in income during this period compared with the control group. A short-term follow-up survey conducted just as civil conflict was breaking out shows that internship recipients had better employment outcomes than the control group in the first five months after the program ended
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7463
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  • 39
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    The Additionality Impact of a Matching Grant Program for Small Firms : Experimental Evidence from Yemen (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McKenzie, David The Additionality Impact of a Matching Grant Program for Small Firms: Experimental Evidence from Yemen
    Abstract: Matching grants are one of the most common types of private sector development programs used in developing countries. But government subsidies to private firms can be controversial. A key question is that of additionality: do these programs get firms to undertake innovative activities that they would not otherwise do, or merely subsidize activities that would take place anyway? Randomized controlled trials can provide the counterfactual needed to answer this question, but efforts to experiment with matching grant programs have often failed. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial of a matching grant program for firms in the Republic of Yemen to demonstrate the feasibility of conducting experiments with well-designed programs, and to measure the additionality impact. In the first year, the matching grant is found to have led to more product innovation, firms upgrading their accounting systems, marketing more, making more capital investments, and being more likely to report their sales grew
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7462
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  • 40
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    What Determines Entrepreneurial Outcomes in Emerging Markets? : The Role of Initial Conditions (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (83 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ayyagari, Meghana What Determines Entrepreneurial Outcomes in Emerging Markets?
    Abstract: Is it the institutions or firm characteristics at birth that shape startups and their early growth in developing countries? Using comprehensive data from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries this paper addresses this question by studying the early lifecycle of firms across diverse institutional environments of regions in India. It finds that the size and characteristics of a start-up at entry are persistent over the first eight years of a firm's life. However, given these initial conditions at entry, institutions do not have much explanatory power in determining growth. The comparative growth rates of large and small start-ups are not significantly different across states with different local institutions or industries with differing reliance on external finance or need for fixed capital. But institutions, particularly the availability of credit, do have an impact on the initial entry process. Access to external finance is associated with greater overall entry, and also smaller sized entry. The results do not appear to be driven by endogeneity of access to credit or sample selection. The results show that the channel through which institutions affect the relative outcomes of young firms is through the initial distribution of firm characteristics at entry rather than their effect on the performance of the firms post entry
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7207
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  • 41
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    Short-Term Impacts of Formalization Assistance and a Bank Information Session on Business Registration and Access to Finance in Malawi (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Campos, Francisco Short-Term Impacts of Formalization Assistance and a Bank Information Session on Business Registration and Access to Finance in Malawi
    Abstract: Despite regulatory efforts designed to make it easier for firms to formalize, informality remains extremely high among firms in Sub-Saharan Africa. In most of the region, business registration in a national registry is separate from tax registration. This paper provides initial results from an experiment in Malawi that randomly allocated firms into a control group and three treatment groups: a) a group offered assistance for costless business registration; b) a group offered assistance with costless business registration and (separate) tax registration; and c) a group offered assistance for costless business registration along with an information session at a bank that ended with the offer of business bank accounts. The study finds that all three treatments had extremely large impacts on business registration, with 75 percent of those offered assistance receiving a business registration certificate. The findings offer a cost-effective way of getting firms to formalize in this dimension. However, in common with other studies, information and assistance has a limited impact on tax registration. The paper measures the short-term impacts of formalization on financial access and usage. Business registration alone has no impact for either men or women on bank account usage, savings, or credit. However, the combination of formalization assistance and the bank information session results in significant impacts on having a business bank account, financial practices, savings, and use of complementary financial products
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7183
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  • 42
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    The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Firms Capital Structure (2015)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Demirguc-Kunt, Asli The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Firms Capital Structure
    Abstract: Using a data set covering about 277,000 firms across 79 countries over the period 2004-11, this paper examines the evolution of firms capital structure during the global financial crisis and its aftermath in 2010-11. The study finds that firm leverage and debt maturity declined in advanced economies and developing countries, even in countries that did not experience a crisis. The deleveraging and maturity reduction were particularly significant for privately held firms, including small and medium enterprises. For small and medium-size enterprises, these effects were larger in countries with less efficient legal systems, weaker information-sharing mechanisms, shallower banking systems, and more restrictions on bank entry. In contrast, there is weaker evidence of a significant decline of leverage and debt maturity among firms listed on a stock exchange, which are typically much larger than other firms and likely benefit from the "spare tire" of easier access to capital market financing
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7522
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  • 43
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    The Impact of Vocational Training for the Unemployed : Experimental Evidence from Turkey (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hirshleifer, Sarojini The Impact of Vocational Training for the Unemployed
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Berufsbildung ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Türkei
    Abstract: A randomized experiment is used to evaluate a large-scale, active labor market policy: Turkey's vocational training programs for the unemployed. A detailed follow-up survey of a large sample with low attrition enables precise estimation of treatment impacts and their heterogeneity. The average impact of training on employment is positive, but close to zero and statistically insignificant, which is much lower than either program officials or applicants expected. Over the first year after training, the paper finds that training had statistically significant effects on the quality of employment and that the positive impacts are stronger when training is offered by private providers. However, longer-term administrative data show that after three years these effects have also dissipated
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6807
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  • 44
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    Do Poverty Traps Exist? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kraay, Aart Do Poverty Traps Exist?
    Abstract: This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the existence of poverty traps, understood as self-reinforcing mechanisms through which poor individuals or countries remain poor. Poverty traps have captured the interest of many development policy makers, because poverty traps provide a theoretically coherent explanation for persistent poverty. They also suggest that temporary policy interventions may have long-term effects on poverty. However, a review of the reduced-form empirical evidence suggests that truly stagnant incomes of the sort predicted by standard models of poverty traps are in fact quite rare. Moreover, the empirical evidence regarding several canonical mechanisms underlying models of poverty traps is mixed
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6835
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  • 45
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    Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Clemens, Michael A Why Don't Remittances Appear to Affect Growth?
    Abstract: Although measured remittances by migrant workers have soared in recent years, macroeconomic studies have difficulty detecting their effect on economic growth. This paper reviews existing explanations for this puzzle and proposes three new ones. First, it offers evidence that a large majority of the recent rise in measured remittances may be illusory-arising from changes in measurement, not changes in real financial flows. Second, it shows that even if these increases were correctly measured, cross-country regressions would have too little power to detect their effects on growth. Third, it points out that the greatest driver of rising remittances is rising migration, which has an opportunity cost to economic product at the origin. Net of that cost, there is little reason to expect large growth effects of remittances in the origin economy. Migration and remittances clearly have first-order effects on poverty at the origin, on the welfare of migrants and their families, and on global gross domestic product; but detecting their effects on growth of the origin economy is likely to remain elusive
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6856
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  • 46
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    Directing Remittances to Education with Soft and Hard Commitments : Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment and New Product Take-up among Filipino Migrants in Rome (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Arcangelis, Giuseppe Directing Remittances to Education with Soft and Hard Commitments
    Abstract: This paper tests how migrants' willingness to remit changes when given the ability to direct remittances to educational purposes using different forms of commitment. Variants of a dictator game in a lab-in-the-field experiment with Filipino migrants in Rome are used to examine remitting behavior under varying degrees of commitment. These range from the soft commitment of simply labeling remittances as being for education, to the hard commitment of having funds directly paid to a school and the student's educational performance monitored. The analysis finds that the introduction of simple labeling for education raises remittances by more than 15 percent. Adding the ability to directly send this funding to the school adds only a further 2.2 percent. The information asymmetry between migrants and their most closely connected household is randomly varied, but no significant change is found in the remittance response to these forms of commitment as information varies. Behavior in these games is shown to be predictive of take-up of a new financial product called EduPay, designed to allow migrants to pay remittances directly to schools in the Philippines. This take-up seems largely driven by a response to the ability to label remittances for education, rather than to the hard commitment feature of directly paying schools
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6896
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  • 47
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    Bank Capital and Systemic Stability (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Bank Capital and Systemic Stability
    Abstract: This paper distinguishes among various types of capital and examines their effect on system-wide fragility. The analysis finds that higher quality forms of capital reduce the systemic risk contribution of banks, whereas lower quality forms can have a destabilizing impact, particularly during crisis periods. The impact of capital on systemic risk is less pronounced for smaller banks, for banks located in countries with more generous safety nets, and in countries with institutions that allow for better public and private monitoring of financial institutions. The results show that regulatory capital is effective in reducing systemic risk and that regulatory risk weights are correlated with higher future asset volatility, but this relationship is significantly weaker for larger banks. The paper also finds that increased regulatory risk-weights not correlated with future asset volatility increase systemic fragility. Overall, the results are consistent with the theoretical literature that emphasizes capital as a potential buffer in absorbing liquidity, information, and economic shocks reducing contagious defaults
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6948
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  • 48
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    Corporate Governance and Bank Insolvency Risk : International Evidence (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Corporate Governance and Bank Insolvency Risk
    Abstract: This paper finds that shareholder-friendly corporate governance is positively associated with bank insolvency risk, as proxied by the Z-score and the Merton's distance to default measure, for an international sample of banks over the 2004-08 period. Banks are special in that "good" corporate governance increases bank insolvency risk relatively more for banks that are large and located in countries with sound public finances, as banks aim to exploit the financial safety net. Good corporate governance is specifically associated with higher asset volatility, more nonperforming loans, and a lower tangible capital ratio. Furthermore, good corporate governance is associated with more bank risk-taking at times of rapid economic expansion. Consistent with increased risk-taking, good corporate governance is associated with a higher valuation of the implicit insurance provided by the financial safety net, especially in the case of large banks. These results underline the importance of the financial safety net and too-big-to-fail policies in encouraging excessive risk-taking by banks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7017
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  • 49
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    Testing the Importance of Search Frictions, Matching, and Reservation Prestige through Randomized Experiments in Jordan (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Groh, Matthew Testing the Importance of Search Frictions, Matching, and Reservation Prestige through Randomized Experiments in Jordan
    Abstract: Unemployment rates for tertiary-educated youth in Jordan are high, as is the duration of unemployment. Two randomized experiments in Jordan were used to test different theories that may explain this phenomenon. The first experiment tested the role of search and matching frictions by providing firms and job candidates with an intensive screening and matching service based on educational backgrounds and psychometric assessments. Although more than 1,000 matches were made, youth rejected the opportunity to even have an interview in 28 percent of cases, and when a job offer was received, they rejected this offer or quickly quit the job 83 percent of the time. A second experiment built on the first by examining the willingness of educated, unemployed youth to apply for jobs of varying levels of prestige. Youth applied to only a small proportion of the job openings they were told about, with application rates higher for higher prestige jobs than lower prestige jobs. Youth failed to show up for the majority of interviews scheduled for low prestige jobs. The results suggest that reservation prestige is an important factor underlying the unemployment of educated Jordanian youth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7030
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  • 50
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    Radio Frequency (Un)Identification : Results from a Proof-of-Concept Trial of the Use of RFID Technology to Measure Microenterprise Turnover in Sri Lanka (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: de Mel, Suresh Radio Frequency (Un)Identification
    Keywords: Kleinstunternehmen ; Befragung ; Gewinn ; Absatz ; RFID
    Abstract: Accurate measurement of stock levels, turnover, and profitability in microenterprises in developing countries is difficult because the majority of these firms do not keep detailed records. This paper tests the use of radio frequency identification tags as a means of objectively measuring stock levels and stock flow in small retail firms in Sri Lanka. In principle, the tags offer the potential to track stock movements accurately. The paper compares the stock counts obtained from RFID reads to physical stock counts and to survey responses. There are three main findings. First, current RFID-technology is more difficult to use, and more time-consuming to employ, than had been envisaged. Second, the technology works reasonably well for paper products, but very poorly for most products sold by microenterprises: on average only about one-quarter of the products tagged could be read and there was considerable day-to-day variation in read-efficiency. Third, a comparison of survey responses and physical stock-takes shows much higher accuracy for survey measures. As a result, the study concludes that this technology is currently unsuitable for improving stock measurement in microenterprises, except perhaps for a few products
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  • 51
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    Development through Seasonal Worker Programs : The Case of New Zealand's RSE Program (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John Development through Seasonal Worker Programs
    Abstract: Seasonal worker programs are increasingly seen as offering the potential to be part of international development policy. New Zealand's Recognised Seasonal Employer program is one of the first and most prominent of programs designed with this perspective. This paper provides a detailed examination of this policy through the first six seasons. This includes the important role of policy facilitation measures taken by governments and aid agencies. The evolution of the program in terms of worker numbers is discussed, along with new data on the (high) degree of circularity in worker movements, and new data on (very low) worker overstay rates. There appears to have been little displacement of New Zealand workers, and new data show Recognised Seasonal Employer workers to be more productive than local labor and that workers appear to gain productivity as they return for subsequent seasons. The program has also benefitted the migrants participating in the program, with increases in per capita incomes, expenditure, savings, and subjective well-being. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the program is largely living up to its promise of a "triple win" for migrants, their sending countries in the Pacific, and New Zealand
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6762
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  • 52
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    Macroinsurance for Microenterprises : A Randomized Experiment in Post-Revolution Egypt (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Groh, Matthew Macroinsurance for Microenterprises
    Abstract: Firms in many developing countries cite macroeconomic instability and political uncertainty as major constraints to their growth. Economic theory suggests uncertainty can cause firms to delay investments until uncertainty is resolved. A randomized experiment was conducted in post-revolution Egypt to measure the impact of insuring microenterprises against macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Demand for macroeconomic shock insurance was high; 36.7 percent of microentrepreneurs in the treatment group purchased insurance. However, purchasing insurance does not change the likelihood that a business takes a new loan, the size of the loan, or how the loan is invested. This lack of effect is attributed to microenterprises largely investing in inventories and raw materials rather than irreversible investments like equipment. These results suggest that, contrary to what some firms profess, macroeconomic and political risk is not inhibiting the investment behavior of microenterprises. However, insurance may still be of value to help firms cope with shocks when they do occur, but the paper is unable to examine this dimension, because the insurance product did not pay out over the course of the pilot
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  • 53
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    Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India? (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (64 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Does Local Financial Development Matter for Firm Lifecycle in India?
    Abstract: The differences in financial development across Indian states, while seeming substantial, have a minor effect on firm lifecycle and growth. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, and for firms born before and after the major reforms. There is no evidence that firms in financially dependent industries have different lifecycle profiles or grow faster in financially developed states than underdeveloped states. Overall, firms in the formal manufacturing sector grow as they age whereas in the informal sector, firms have a declining lifecycle, but in both cases little evidence is found that financial institutions matter for firm lifecycle. The findings of this paper suggest that size and depth differences in financial development across Indian states are likely dwarfed by overall inefficiencies that characterize state-dominated financial systems, with important implications for the reforms of the Indian financial system going forward
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7008
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  • 54
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    Evidence on Policies to Increase the Development Impacts of International Migration (2014)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Evidence on Policies to Increase the Development Impacts of International Migration
    Abstract: International migration offers individuals and their families the potential to experience immediate and large gains in their incomes, and offers a large number of other positive benefits to the sending communities and countries. However, there are also concerns about potential costs of migration, including concerns about trafficking and human rights, a desire for remittances to be used more effectively, and concerns about externalities from skilled workers being lost. As a result there is increasing interest in policies which can enhance the development benefits of international migration and mitigate these potential costs. This paper provides a critical review of recent research on the effectiveness of these policies at three stages of the migration process: pre-departure, during migration, and directed toward possible return. The existing evidence base suggests some areas of policy success: bilateral migration agreements for countries whose workers have few other migration options, developing new savings and remittance products that allow migrants more control over how their money is used, and some efforts to provide financial education to migrants and their families. Suggestive evidence together with theory offers support for a number of other policies, such as lowering the cost of remittances, reducing passport costs, offering dual citizenship, and removing exit barriers to migration. Research offers reasons to be cautious about some policies, such as enforcing strong rights for migrants like high minimum wages. Nevertheless, the paper finds the evidence base to be weak for many policies, with no reliable research on the impact of most return migration programs, nor for whether countries should be trying to induce communal remitting through matching funds
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  • 55
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    Financial Inclusion and Legal Discrimination against Women : Evidence from Developing Countries (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Financial Inclusion and Legal Discrimination against Women
    Abstract: This paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the use of financial services using individual-level data from 98 developing countries. The data, drawn from the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, highlight the existence of significant gender gaps in ownership of accounts and usage of savings and credit products. Even after controlling for a host of individual characteristics including income, education, employment status, rural residency and age, gender remains significantly related to usage of financial services. This study also finds that legal discrimination against women and gender norms may explain some of the cross-country variation in access to finance for women. The analysis finds that in countries where women face legal restrictions in their ability to work, head a household, choose where to live, and receive inheritance, women are less likely to own an account, relative to men, as well as to save and borrow. The results also confirm that manifestations of gender norms, such as the level of violence against women and the incidence of early marriage for women, contribute to explaining the variation in the use of financial services between men and women, after controlling for other individual and country characteristics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6416
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  • 56
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    Eliciting Illegal Migration Rates through List Randomization (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (19 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Eliciting Illegal Migration Rates through List Randomization
    Abstract: Most migration surveys do not ask about the legal status of migrants due to concerns about the sensitivity of this question. List randomization is a technique that has been used in a number of other social science applications to elicit sensitive information. This paper trials this technique by adding it to surveys conducted in Ethiopia, Mexico, Morocco, and the Philippines. It shows how, in principal, this can be used both to give an estimate of the overall rate of illegal migration in the population being surveyed, as well as to determine illegal migration rates for subgroups such as more or less educated households. The results suggest that there is some useful information in this method: higher rates of illegal migration in countries where illegal migration is thought to be more prevalent and households who say they have a migrant are more likely to report having an illegal migrant. Nevertheless, some of the other findings also suggest some possible inconsistencies or noise in the conclusions obtained using this method. The authors suggest directions for future attempts to implement this approach in migration surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6426
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  • 57
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    A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law? : Experimental Evidence on What Governments Can Do to Formalize Firms (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Andrade, Gustavo Henrique A Helping Hand or the Long Arm of the Law?
    Abstract: Many governments have spent much of the past decade trying to extend a helping hand to informal businesses by making it easier and cheaper for them to formalize. Much less effort has been devoted to raising the costs of remaining informal, through increasing enforcement of existing regulations. This paper reports on a field experiment conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in order to test which government actions work in getting informal firms to register. Firms were randomized to a control group or one of four treatment groups: the first received information about how to formalize; the second received this information and free registration costs along with the use of an accountant for a year; the third group was assigned to receive an enforcement visit from a municipal inspector; while the fourth group was assigned to have a neighboring firm receive an enforcement visit to see if enforcement has spillovers. The analysis finds zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments, and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. Estimates of the impact of actually receiving an inspection give a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting formality offers little private benefit to them. But the tax revenue benefits to the government of bringing firms of this size into the formal system more than offset the costs of inspections
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6435
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  • 58
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    Unilateral Facilitation Does Not Raise International Labor Migration from the Philippines (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beam, Emily Unilateral Facilitation Does Not Raise International Labor Migration from the Philippines
    Keywords: 2010-2012 ; Arbeitsmigranten ; Migrationspolitik ; Arbeitsvermittlung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Schätzung ; Philippinen
    Abstract: Significant income gains from migrating from poorer to richer countries have motivated unilateral (source-country) policies facilitating labor emigration. However, their effectiveness is unknown. The authors conducted a large-scale randomized experiment in the Philippines testing the impact of unilaterally facilitating international labor migration. The most intensive treatment doubled the rate of job offers but had no identifiable effect on international labor migration. Even the highest overseas job-search rate that was induced (22 percent) falls far short of the share initially expressing interest in migrating (34 percent). The paper concludes that unilateral migration facilitation will at most induce a trickle, not a flood, of additional emigration
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6689
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  • 59
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    Islamic Finance and Financial Inclusion : Measuring Use of and Demand for Formal Financial Services among Muslim Adults (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Islamic Finance and Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: In recent years, the Islamic finance industry has attracted the attention of policy makers and international donors as a possible channel through which to expand financial inclusion, particularly among Muslim adults. Yet cross-country, demand-side data on actual usage and preference gaps in financial services between Muslims and non-Muslims have been scarce. This paper uses novel data to explore the use of and demand for formal financial services among self-identified Muslim adults. In a sample of more than 65,000 adults from 64 economies (excluding countries where less than 1 percent or more than 99 percent of the sample self-identified as Muslim), the analysis finds that Muslims are significantly less likely than non-Muslims to own a formal account or save at a formal financial institution after controlling for other individual- and country-level characteristics. But the analysis finds no evidence that Muslims are less likely than non-Muslims to report formal or informal borrowing. Finally, in an extended survey of adults in five North African and Middle Eastern countries with relatively nascent Islamic finance industries, the study finds little use of Sharia-compliant banking products, although it does find evidence of a hypothetical preference for Sharia-compliant products among a plurality of respondents despite higher costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6642
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  • 60
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    Size and Age of Establishments : Evidence from Developing Countries (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Size and Age of Establishments
    Abstract: Survey data from 120 developing countries are used to examine the relation between establishment size and age in the formal sector. Existing research suggests that manufacturing establishments in developing countries do not grow over time, most likely because of market imperfections and regulations. To the contrary, this paper finds that the average plant in developing countries that is more than 40 years old employs almost five times as many workers as the average plant that is five years old or younger. The analysis finds consistent evidence when it looks within a large country, India, based on detailed manufacturing census data over 23 years. It also finds that differences in financial development across Indian states, while substantial, have a minor effect on firm growth, consistent with inefficiency of state-owned financial systems. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, labor regulations, and firms born before and after the major reforms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6718
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  • 61
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    Using Administrative Data to Evaluate Municipal Reforms : An Evaluation of the Impact of Minas Fácil Expresso (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bruhn, Miriam Using Administrative Data to Evaluate Municipal Reforms
    Abstract: Efforts to make it easier for firms to register formally are the most common form of business regulatory reform over the past decade. While there is evidence that large reforms have resulted in some increases in registration rates, recent experimental evidence suggests very few informal firms choose to register when given information about how to do so. This raises the question of whether it is productive for governments to continue to extend simplification efforts to all firms, especially those in more remote areas where many of the benefits of registering may be reduced. This study uses administrative data to evaluate the impact of Minas Fácil Expresso, a program in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which attempted to expand a business start-up simplification program to more remote municipalities. Using difference-in-differences with 56 months of registration data for 822 municipalities, the analysis finds introducing these units actually led to a reduction in registration rates, and no change in tax revenues. The paper uses this evaluation to illustrate the design choices and issues involved in using administrative data to evaluate reforms, with the goal of also providing a template that can be used for evaluating similar reforms elsewhere
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6368
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  • 62
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    Why is Voluntary Financial Education so Unpopular? : Experimental Evidence from Mexico (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bruhn, Miriam Why is Voluntary Financial Education so Unpopular?
    Abstract: Take-up of voluntary financial education programs is typically extremely low. This paper reports on randomized experiments around a large financial literacy course offered in Mexico City to understand the reasons for low take-up, and to measure the impact of financial education. It documents that the general public displays little interest in such courses and that participation is low even among individuals who express interest in financial education. The paper experimentally investigates barriers to take-up, and finds no impact of relaxing reputational or logistical constraints and no evidence that time inconsistency is the reason for limited participation. Even relatively sizeable monetary incentives get less than 40 percent of interested individuals invited to training to attend. Using a randomized encouragement design, the authors measure the impact of the course on financial knowledge and behavior. Attending training results in a 9 percentage point increase in financial knowledge and a 9 percentage point increase in saving outcomes, but no impact on borrowing behavior. Administrative data indicate that the savings impact is relatively short-lived. The results suggest people are making optimal choices not to attend financial education courses, and point to the limits of using general purpose courses to improve financial behavior for the general population
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6439
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  • 63
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    Entry Regulation and Formalization of Microenterprises in Developing Countries (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (18 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Bruhn, Miriam Entry Regulation and Formalization of Microenterprises in Developing Countries
    Abstract: The majority of microenterprises in most developing countries remain informal despite more than a decade of reforms aimed at making it easier and cheaper for them to formalize. This paper summarizes the evidence on the effects of entry reforms and related policy actions to promote firm formalization. Most of these policies result only in a modest increase in the number of formal firms, if at all. Less is known about the impact of other forms of business regulations on the performance of low-scale enterprises. Most informal firms appear not to benefit on net from formalizing, so ease of formalization alone will not lead to most of them formalizing. Increased enforcement of rules can increase formality. Although there is a fiscal benefit of doing this with larger informal firms, it is unclear whether there is a public rationale for trying to formalize subsistence enterprises
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6507
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  • 64
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    How Does Corporate Governance Affect Bank Capitalization Strategies? (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (49 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Corporate Governance Affect Bank Capitalization Strategies?
    Abstract: This paper examines how corporate governance and executive compensation affected bank capitalization strategies for an international sample of banks in 2003-2011. "Good" corporate governance, which favors shareholder interests, is found to give rise to lower bank capitalization. Boards of intermediate size, separation of the chief executive officer and chairman roles, and an absence of anti-takeover provisions, in particular, lead to low bank capitalization. However, executive options and stock wealth invested in the bank are associated with better capitalization except just before the crisis in 2006. In that year, stock options wealth was associated with lower capitalization, which suggests that potential gains from taking on more bank risk outweighed the prospect of additional loss. Banks' tendencies to continue payouts to shareholders after experiencing negative income shocks are shown to reflect executive risk-taking incentives
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6636
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  • 65
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    How Does Bank Competition Affect Systemic Stability? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Bank Competition Affect Systemic Stability?
    Abstract: Using bank level measures of competition and co-dependence, the authors show a robust positive relationship between bank competition and systemic stability. Whereas much of the extant literature has focused on the relationship between competition and the absolute level of risk of individual banks, they examine the correlation in the risk taking behavior of banks, hence systemic risk. They find that greater competition encourages banks to take on more diversified risks, making the banking system less fragile to shocks. Examining the impact of the institutional and regulatory environment on systemic stability shows that banking systems are more fragile in countries with weak supervision and private monitoring, with generous deposit insurance and greater government ownership of banks, and public policies that restrict competition. Furthermore, lack of competition has a greater adverse effect on systemic stability in countries with low levels of foreign ownership, weak investor protections, generous safety nets, and where the authorities provide limited guidance for bank asset diversification
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5981
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  • 66
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    The Demand for, and Consequences of, Formalization among Informal Firms in Sri Lanka (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Mel, Suresh The Demand for, and Consequences of, Formalization among Informal Firms in Sri Lanka
    Abstract: The majority of firms in most developing countries are informal. The authors of this paper conducted a field experiment in Sri Lanka that provided incentives for informal firms to formalize. Offering only information about the registration process and reimbursement for direct registration costs had no impact on formalization. Adding payments equivalent to one-half to one month's profits for the median firm led to registration of around one-fifth of firms. A larger payment equivalent to two months' median profits induced half the firms to register. The main reasons for not formalizing when offered incentives included issues related to ownership of land and concerns about facing labor taxes in the future. The degree of bureaucracy in the registration process also seems to matter for those with the incentive to register, with response to the incentives higher in Colombo, where the registration process was easier, than in Kandy. Three follow-up surveys, at 15 to 31 months after the intervention, measure the impact of formalizing on these firms. Although mean profits increased, this appears largely due to the experiences of a few firms that grew rapidly, with most firms experiencing no increase in income as a result of formalizing. The authors also find little evidence for most of the channels through which formalization is hypothesized to benefit firms, although formalized firms do advertise more and are more likely to use receipt books. In qualitative interviews owners of formalized firms also feel their businesses have more legitimacy. Finally, formalizing is found to result in a large increase in trust in the state. Their focus is largely on the private costs and benefits of existing firms formalizing. Within their sample they cannot measure broader impacts of formalization on other firms (who may prosper from not having to compete against informal firms not paying taxes), nor impacts of easier formalization on entry of new firms. Nevertheless, our results suggest that although most informal firms do not want to formalize, given the current private costs and benefits of formalizing, policy efforts that lead to relatively modest increases in the net benefits of formalizing would induce a sizeable share of informal firms to formalize
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5991
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  • 67
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    Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Asli Demirguc-Kunt Measuring Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6025
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  • 68
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    Financing of Firms in Developing Countries : Lessons from Research (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (99 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Meghana Ayyagari Financing of Firms in Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper reviews and synthesizes theoretical and empirical research on the role of finance in developing countries. First, the paper presents the stylized facts about firms in developing nations as well as the legal, financial and broader institutional framework in which these firms operate. Next, the paper focuses on the financing choices available to small and medium firms in developing countries and highlights areas needing additional research
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6036
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  • 69
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    Distortions in the International Migrant Labor Market : Evidence from Filipino Migration and Wage Responses to Destination Country Economic Shocks (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: David McKenzie Distortions in the International Migrant Labor Market
    Abstract: The authors use an original panel dataset of migrant departures from the Philippines to identify the responsiveness of migrant numbers and wages to gross domestic product shocks in destination countries. They find a large significant elasticity of migrant numbers to gross domestic product shocks at destination, but no significant wage response. This is consistent with binding minimum wages for migrant labor. This result implies that labor market imperfections that make international migration attractive also make migrant flows more sensitive to global business cycles. Difference-in-differences analysis of a minimum wage change for maids confirms that minimum wages bind and demand is price sensitive without these distortions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6041
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  • 70
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    Soft Skills or Hard Cash? : The Impact of Training and Wage Subsidy Programs on Female Youth Employment in Jordan (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Groh, Matthew Soft Skills or Hard Cash?
    Abstract: Throughout the Middle East, unemployment rates of educated youth have been persistently high and female labor force participation, low. This paper studies the impact of a randomized experiment in Jordan designed to assist female community college graduates find employment. One randomly chosen group of graduates was given a voucher that would pay an employer a subsidy equivalent to the minimum wage for up to 6 months if they hired the graduate; a second group was invited to attend 45 hours of employability skills training designed to provide them with the soft skills employers say graduates often lack; a third group was offered both interventions; and the fourth group forms the control group. The analysis finds that the job voucher led to a 40 percentage point increase in employment in the short-run, but that most of this employment is not formal, and that the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant 4 months after the voucher period has ended. The voucher does appear to have persistent impacts outside the capital, where it almost doubles the employment rate of graduates, but this appears likely to largely reflect displacement effects. Soft-skills training has no average impact on employment, although again there is a weakly significant impact outside the capital. The authors elicit the expectations of academics and development professionals to demonstrate that these findings are novel and unexpected. The results suggest that wage subsidies can help increase employment in the short term, but are not a panacea for the problems of high urban female youth unemployment
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6141
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  • 71
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    Business Training and Female Enterprise Start-up, Growth, and Dynamics : Experimental Evidence from Sri Lanka (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: De Mel, Suresh Business Training and Female Enterprise Start-up, Growth, and Dynamics
    Abstract: The authors conduct a randomized experiment among women in urban Sri Lanka to measure the impact of the most commonly used business training course in developing countries, the Start-and-Improve Your Business program. They work with two representative groups of women: a random sample of women operating subsistence enterprises and a random sample of women who are out of the labor force but interested in starting a business. They track the impacts of two treatments - training only and training plus a cash grant - over two years with four follow-up surveys and find that the short and medium-term impacts differ. For women already in business, training alone leads to some changes in business practices but has no impact on business profits, sales or capital stock. In contrast, the combination of training and a grant leads to large and significant improvements in business profitability in the first eight months, but this impact dissipates in the second year. For women interested in starting enterprises, business training speeds up entry but leads to no increase in net business ownership by the final survey round. Both profitability and business practices of the new entrants are increased by training, suggesting training may be more effective for new owners than for existing businesses. The study also finds that the two treatments have selection effects, leading to entrants being less analytically skilled and poorer
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6145
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  • 72
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    What are we Learning from Business Training and Entrepreneurship Evaluations around the Developing World? (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David What are we Learning from Business Training and Entrepreneurship Evaluations around the Developing World?
    Abstract: Business training programs are a popular policy option to try to improve the performance of enterprises around the world. The last few years have seen rapid growth in the number of evaluations of these programs in developing countries. This paper undertakes a critical review of these studies with the goal of synthesizing the emerging lessons and understanding the limitations of the existing research and the areas in which more work is needed. It finds that there is substantial heterogeneity in the length, content, and types of firms participating in the training programs evaluated. Many evaluations suffer from low statistical power, measure impacts only within a year of training, and experience problems with survey attrition and measurement of firm profits and revenues. Over these short time horizons, there are relatively modest impacts of training on survivorship of existing firms, but stronger evidence that training programs help prospective owners launch new businesses more quickly. Most studies find that existing firm owners implement some of the practices taught in training, but the magnitudes of these improvements in practices are often relatively modest. Few studies find significant impacts on profits or sales, although a couple of the studies with more statistical power have done so. Some studies have also found benefits to microfinance organizations of offering training. To date there is little evidence to help guide policymakers as to whether any impacts found come from trained firms competing away sales from other businesses versus through productivity improvements, and little evidence to guide the development of the provision of training at market prices. The paper concludes by summarizing some directions and key questions for future studies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6202
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  • 73
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    How Does Deposit Insurance Affect Bank Risk? : Evidence from the Recent Crisis (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz How Does Deposit Insurance Affect Bank Risk?
    Abstract: Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks, which leads to excessive risk-taking. This paper examines the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading to and during the recent financial crisis. It finds that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. However, during the crisis, bank risk is lower and systemic stability is greater in countries with deposit insurance coverage. The findings suggest that the "moral hazard effect" of deposit insurance dominates in good times while the "stabilization effect" of deposit insurance dominates in turbulent times. Nevertheless, the overall effect of deposit insurance over the full sample remains negative since the destabilizing effect during normal times is greater in magnitude compared with the stabilizing effect during global turbulence. In addition, the analysis finds that good bank supervision can alleviate the unintended consequences of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk during good times, suggesting that fostering the appropriate incentive framework is very important for ensuring systemic stability
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6289
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  • 74
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    The Foundations of Financial Inclusion : Understanding Ownership and Use of Formal Accounts (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Allen, Franklin The Foundations of Financial Inclusion
    Abstract: Financial inclusion-defined here as the use of formal accounts-can bring many welfare benefits to individuals. Yet we know very little about the factors underpinning financial inclusion across individuals and countries. Using data for 123 countries and over 124,000 individuals, this paper tries to understand the individual and country characteristics associated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents. The authors find that greater ownership and use of accounts is associated with a better enabling environment for accessing financial services, such as lower account costs and greater proximity to financial intermediaries. Policies targeted to promote inclusion-such as requiring banks to offer basic or low-fee accounts, exempting some depositors from onerous documentation requirements, allowing correspondent banking, and using bank accounts to make government payments-are especially effective among those most likely to be excluded. Finally, the authors study the factors associated with perceived barriers to account ownership among those who are financially excluded and find that these individuals report lower barriers in countries with lower costs of accounts and greater penetration of financial service providers. Overall, the results suggest that policies to reduce barriers to financial inclusion may expand the pool of eligible account users and encourage existing account holders to use their accounts to save and with greater frequency
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6290
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  • 75
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    Learning from the Experiments That Never Happened : Lessons from Trying to Conduct Randomized Evaluations of Matching Grant Programs in Africa (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Campos, Francisco Learning from the Experiments That Never Happened
    Abstract: Matching grants are one of the most common policy instruments used by developing country governments to try to foster technological upgrading, innovation, exports, use of business development services and other activities leading to firm growth. However, since they involve subsidizing firms, the risk is that they could crowd out private investment, subsidizing activities that firms were planning to undertake anyway, or lead to pure private gains, rather than generating the public gains that justify government intervention. As a result, rigorous evaluation of the effects of such programs is important. The authors attempted to implement randomized experiments to evaluate the impact of seven matching grant programs offered in six African countries, but in each case were unable to complete an experimental evaluation. One critique of randomized experiments is publication bias, whereby only those experiments with "interesting" results get published. The hope is to mitigate this bias by learning from the experiments that never happened. This paper describes the three main proximate reasons for lack of implementation: continued project delays, politicians not willing to allow random assignment, and low program take-up; and then delves into the underlying causes of these occurring. Political economy, overly stringent eligibility criteria that do not take account of where value-added may be highest, a lack of attention to detail in "last mile" issues, incentives facing project implementation staff, and the way impact evaluations are funded, and all help explain the failure of randomization. Lessons are drawn from these experiences for both the implementation and the possible evaluation of future projects
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6296
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  • 76
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    The Impact of Financial Literacy Training for Migrants (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: John Gibson The Impact of Financial Literacy Training for Migrants
    Abstract: Remittances are a major source of external finance for many developing countries but the cost of sending remittances remains high for many migration corridors. International efforts to lower costs by facilitating the entry of new financial products and new cost comparison information sources rely heavily on the financial literacy of migrants. This paper presents the results of a randomized experiment designed to measure the impact of providing financial literacy training to migrants. Training appears to increase financial knowledge and information seeking behavior and reduce the risk of switching to costlier remittance products. But it does not change either the frequency or level of remittances
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6073
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  • 77
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    Who You Train Matters : Identifying Complementary Effects of Financial Education on Migrant Households (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Doi, Yoko Who You Train Matters?
    Abstract: There has long been a concern among policymakers that too much of remittances are consumed and too little saved, limiting the development impact of migration. Financial literacy programs have become an increasingly popular way to try and address this issue, but to date there is no evidence that they are effective in inducing savings among remittance-receiving households, nor is it clear whether such programs are best targeted at the migrant, the remittance receiver, or both. The authors conducted a randomized experiment in Indonesia which allocated migrants and their families to a control group, a migrant-only training group, a family member-only training group, and a training group in which both the migrant and a family member were trained. Three rounds of follow-up surveys are then used to measure impacts on the financial knowledge, behaviors, and remittance and savings outcomes of the remaining household. They find that training both the migrant and the family member together has large and significant impacts on knowledge, behaviors, and savings. Training the family member alone has some positive, but smaller effects, whilst training only the migrant leads to no impacts on the remaining family members. The results show that financial education can have large effects when provided at a teachable moment, but that this impact varies greatly with who receives training
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6157
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  • 78
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    Beyond Baseline and Follow-up : The Case for More T in Experiments (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Beyond Baseline and Follow-up
    Abstract: The vast majority of randomized experiments in economics rely on a single baseline and single follow-up survey. If multiple follow-ups are conducted, the reason is typically to examine the trajectory of impact effects, so that in effect only one follow-up round is being used to estimate each treatment effect of interest. While such a design is suitable for study of highly autocorrelated and relatively precisely measured outcomes in the health and education domains, this paper makes the case that it is unlikely to be optimal for measuring noisy and relatively less autocorrelated outcomes such as business profits, household incomes and expenditures, and episodic health outcomes. Taking multiple measurements of such outcomes at relatively short intervals allows the researcher to average out noise, increasing power. When the outcomes have low autocorrelation, it can make sense to do no baseline at all. Moreover, the author shows how for such outcomes, more power can be achieved with multiple follow-ups than allocating the same total sample size over a single follow-up and baseline. The analysis highlights the large gains in power from ANCOVA rather than difference-in-differences when autocorrelations are low and a baseline is taken. The paper discusses the issues involved in multiple measurements, and makes recommendations for the design of experiments and related non-experimental impact evaluations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5639
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  • 79
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    Small vs. Young Firms across the World : Contribution to Employment, Job Creation, and Growth (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Ayyagari, Meghana Small vs. Young Firms across the World
    Abstract: This paper describes a unique cross-country database that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the small and medium enterprises sector to total employment, job creation, and growth in 99 countries. The authors compare and contrast the importance of small and medium enterprises to that of young firms across different economies. They find that small firms (in particular, firms with less than 100 employees) and mature firms (in particular, firms older than 10 years) have the largest shares of total employment and job creation. Small firms and young firms have higher job creation rates than large and mature firms. However, large firms and young firms have higher productivity growth. This suggests that while small firms employ a large share of workers and create most jobs in developing economies their contribution to productivity growth is not as high as that of large firms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5631
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  • 80
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    Eight Questions about Brain Drain (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Gibson, John Eight Questions about Brain Drain
    Abstract: High-skilled emigration is an emotive issue that in popular discourse is often referred to as brain drain, conjuring images of extremely negative impacts on developing countries. Recent discussions of brain gain, diaspora effects, and other advantages of migration have been used to argue against this, but much of the discussion has been absent of evidence. This paper builds upon a new wave of empirical research to answer eight key questions underlying much of the brain drain debate: 1) What is brain drain? 2) Why should economists care about it? 3) Is brain drain increasing? 4) Is there a positive relationship between skilled and unskilled migration? 5) What makes brain drain more likely? 6) Does brain gain exist? 7) Do high-skilled workers remit, invest, and share knowledge back home? And 8) What do we know about the fiscal and production externalities of brain drain?
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5668
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  • 81
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    How Can We Learn Whether Firm Policies are Working in Africa? : Challenges (and Solutions?) for Experiments and Structural Models (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David How Can We Learn Whether Firm Policies are Working in Africa?
    Abstract: Firm productivity is low in African countries, prompting governments to try a number of active policies to improve it. Yet despite the millions of dollars spent on these policies, we are far from a situation where we know whether many of them are yielding the desired payoffs. This paper establishes some basic facts about the number and heterogeneity of firms in different sub-Saharan African countries and discusses their implications for experimental and structural approaches towards trying to estimate firm policy impacts. It shows that the typical firm program such as a matching grant scheme or business training program involves only 100 to 300 firms, which are often very heterogeneous in terms of employment and sales levels. As a result, standard experimental designs will lack any power to detect reasonable sized treatment impacts, while structural models which assume common production technologies and few missing markets will be ill-suited to capture the key constraints firms face. Nevertheless, the author suggests a way forward which involves focusing on a more homogeneous sub-sample of firms and collecting a lot more data on them than is typically collected
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5632
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  • 82
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    When is Capital Enough to get Female Enterprises Growing : Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Ghana (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fafchamps, Marcel When is Capital Enough to get Female Enterprises Growing
    Abstract: Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. The authors randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male- and female-owned microenterprises in urban Ghana. Their findings cast doubt on the ability of capital alone to stimulate the growth of female microenterprises. First, while the average treatment effects of the in-kind grants are large and positive for both males and females, the gain in profits is almost zero for women with initial profits below the median, suggesting that capital alone is not enough to grow subsistence enterprises owned by women. Second, for women they strongly reject equality of the cash and in-kind grants; only in-kind grants lead to growth in business profits. The results for men also suggest a lower impact of cash, but differences between cash and in-kind grants are less robust. The difference in the effects of cash and in-kind grants is associated more with a lack of self-control than with external pressure. As a result, the manner in which funding is provided affects microenterprise growth
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5706
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 83
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    Has the Global Banking System Become More Fragile over Time? (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Anginer, Deniz Has the Global Banking System Become More Fragile over Time?
    Abstract: This paper examines time-series and cross-country variations in default risk co-dependence in the global banking system. The authors construct a default risk measure for all publicly traded banks using the Merton contingent claim model, and examine the evolution of the correlation structure of default risk for more than 1,800 banks in more than 60 countries. They find that there has been a significant increase in default risk co-dependence over the three-year period leading to the financial crisis. They also find that countries that are more integrated, and that have liberalized financial systems and weak banking supervision, have higher co-dependence in their banking sector. The results support an increase in scope for intra-national supervisory co-operation, as well as capital charges for "too-connected-to-fail" institutions that can impose significant externalities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5849
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 84
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    The Impact of Economics Blogs (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David The Impact of Economics Blogs
    Abstract: There is a proliferation of economics blogs, with increasing numbers of economists attracting large numbers of readers, yet little is known about the impact of this new medium. Using a variety of experimental and non-experimental techniques, this study quantifies some of their effects. First, links from blogs cause a striking increase in the number of abstract views and downloads of economics papers. Second, blogging raises the profile of the blogger (and his or her institution) and boosts their reputation above economists with similar publication records. Finally, a blog can transform attitudes about some of the topics it covers
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5783
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 85
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    The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets
    Abstract: This paper examines the evolving importance of banks and securities markets during the process of economic development. As economies develop, they increase their demand for the services provided by securities markets relative to those provided by banks, such that securities markets become increasingly important for future economic development. Some exploratory evidence further suggests that deviations of a country's actual financial structure-the mixture of banks and markets operating in an economy-from the estimated optimal structure are associated with lower levels of economic activity
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5805
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 86
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    Using Repeated Cross-Sections to Explore Movements into and Out of Poverty (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Dang, Hai-Anh Using Repeated Cross-Sections to Explore Movements into and Out of Poverty
    Abstract: Movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists. Yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare. In this paper, the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross-sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty. They illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility, and provide non-parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds. They test how well the method works on data sets for Vietnam and Indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates. The results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited, basic, insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5550
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 87
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    Enterprise Recovery Following Natural Disasters (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Woodruff, Christopher Enterprise Recovery Following Natural Disasters
    Abstract: Using data from surveys of enterprises in Sri Lanka after the December 2004 tsunami, the authors undertake the first microeconomic study of the recovery of the private firms in a developing country following a major natural disaster. Disaster recovery in low-income countries is characterized by the prevalence of relief aid rather than of insurance payments; the data show this distinction has important consequences. The data indicate that aid provided directly to households correlates reasonably well with reported losses of household assets, but is uncorrelated with reported losses of business assets. Business recovery is found to be slower than commonly assumed, with disaster-affected enterprises lagging behind unaffected comparable firms more than three years after the disaster. Using data from random cash grants provided by the project, the paper shows that direct aid is more important in the recovery of enterprises operating in the retail sector than for those operating in the manufacturing and service sectors
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5269
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 88
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    Accounting for Selectivity and Duration-Dependent Heterogeneity When Estimating the Impact of Emigration On Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Stillman, Steven Accounting for Selectivity and Duration-Dependent Heterogeneity When Estimating the Impact of Emigration On Incomes and Poverty in Sending Areas
    Abstract: The impacts of international emigration and remittances on incomes and poverty in sending areas are increasingly studied with household survey data. But comparing households with and without emigrants is complicated by a triple-selectivity problem: first, households self-select into emigration; second, in some emigrant households everyone moves while others leave members behind; and third, some emigrants choose to return to the origin country. Allowing for duration-dependent heterogeneity introduces a fourth form of selectivity - one must now worry not just about whether households migrate, but also when they do so. This paper clearly sets out these selectivity issues and their implications for existing migration studies, and then addresses them by using survey data designed specifically to take advantage of a randomized lottery that determines which applicants to the over-subscribed Samoan Quota may immigrate to New Zealand. The analysis compares incomes and poverty rates among left behind members in households in Samoa that sent Samoan Quota emigrants with those for members of similar households that were unsuccessful in the lottery. Policy rules control who can accompany the principal migrant, providing an instrument to address the second selectivity problem, while differences among migrants in which year their ballot was selected allow for estimation of duration effects. The authors find that migration reduced poverty among former household members, but they also find suggestive evidence that this effect may be short-lived as both remittances and agricultural income are negatively related to the duration that the migrant has been abroad
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5268
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 89
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    Are Innovating Firms Victims Or Perpetrators? : Tax Evasion, Bribe Payments, and the Role of External Finance in Developing Countries (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Are Innovating Firms Victims Or Perpetrators?
    Abstract: This paper investigates corruption and tax evasion and their firm-level determinants across 25,000 firms in 57 countries, a large fraction of which are small and medium enterprises in developing countries. Firms that pay more bribes also evade more taxes. Corruption acts as a tax on innovation, particularly that of small and young firms. Innovating firms pay a larger percentage of their revenues in bribes to government officials than non-innovating firms. They do not, however, pay more protection money to private parties than other firms. Comparing the magnitudes of bribes and taxes evaded, innovating firms and firms that use formal finance are more likely to be net victims. The findings point to the challenges facing innovators in developing countries and the role of banks in curbing corruption and tax evasion
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5389
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 90
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    Bank capital : lessons from the financial crisis (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Bank capital
    Abstract: Using a multi-country panel of banks, the authors study whether better capitalized banks fared better in terms of stock returns during the financial crisis. They differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk-adjusted ratio; the leverage ratio; the Tier I and Tier II ratios; and the common equity ratio. They find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not affect subsequent stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, higher capital resulted in better stock performance, most markedly for larger banks and less well-capitalized banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk-adjusted capital ratio; (iv) there is evidence that higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital, were more relevant. They also examine the relationship between bank capitalization and credit default swap (CDS) spreads
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5473
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 91
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    Are Banks Too Big To Fail Or Too Big To Save ? : International Evidence From Equity Prices and CDS Spreads (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Are Banks Too Big To Fail Or Too Big To Save ?
    Abstract: Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of government indebtedness and deficits on bank stock prices and credit default swap spreads. Overall, bank stock prices reflect a negative capitalization of government debt and they respond negatively to deficits. The authors present evidence that in 2008 systemically large banks saw a reduction in their market valuation in countries running large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the change in bank credit default swap spreads in 2008 relative to 2007 reflects countries' deterioration of public deficits. The results of the analysis suggest that some systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, as they have become too big to save, potentially reversing the trend to ever larger banks. The paper also documents that a smaller proportion of banks are systemically important - relative to gross domestic product - in 2008 than in the two previous years, which could reflect private incentives to downsize
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5360
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 92
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    Experimental Approaches in Migration Studies (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Experimental Approaches in Migration Studies
    Abstract: The decision of whether or not to migrate has far-reaching consequences for the lives of individuals and their families. But the very nature of this choice makes identifying the impacts of migration difficult, since it is hard to measure a credible counterfactual of what the person and their household would have been doing had migration not occurred. Migration experiments provide a clear and credible way for identifying this counterfactual, and thereby allowing causal estimation of the impacts of migration. The authors provide an overview and critical review of the three strands of this approach: policy experiments, natural experiments, and researcher-led field experiments. The purpose is to introduce readers to the need for this approach, give examples of where it has been applied in practice, and draw out lessons for future work in this area
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5395
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 93
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    The development impact of a best practice seasonal worker policy (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David The development impact of a best practice seasonal worker policy
    Abstract: Seasonal migration programs are widely used around the world, and are increasingly seen as offering a potential “triple-win”- benefiting the migrant, sending country, and receiving country. Yet there is a dearth of rigorous evidence as to their development impact, and concerns about whether the time periods involved are too short to realize much in the way of benefits, and whether poorer, less skilled households actually get to participate in such programs. This paper studies the development impacts of a recently introduced seasonal worker program that has been deemed to be “best practice.” New Zealand's Recognized Seasonal Employer program was launched in 2007 with an explicit focus on development in the Pacific alongside the aim of benefiting employers at home. A multi-year prospective evaluation allows measurement of the impact of participation in this program on households and communities in Tonga and Vanuatu. Using a matched difference-in-differences analysis based on detailed surveys fielded before, during, and after participation, the authors find that the Recognized Seasonal Employer program has indeed had largely positive development impacts. It has increased income and consumption of households, allowed households to purchase more durable goods, increased the subjective standard of living, and had additional benefits at the community level. It also increased child schooling in Tonga. This should rank it among the most effective development policies evaluated to date. The policy was designed as a best practice example based on lessons elsewhere, and now should serve as a model for other countries to follow
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5488
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 94
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    The Remitting Patterns of African Migrants in the OECD (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Morten, Melanie The Remitting Patterns of African Migrants in the OECD
    Abstract: Recorded remittances to Africa have grown dramatically over the past decade. Yet data limitations still mean relatively little is known about which migrants remit, how much they remit, and how their remitting behavior varies with gender, education, income levels, and duration abroad. This paper constructs the most comprehensive remittance database on immigrants in the OECD currently available, containing microdata on more than 12,000 African immigrants. Using this microdata the authors establish several basic facts about the remitting patterns of Africans, and then explore how key characteristics of policy interest relate to remittance behavior. Africans are found to remit twice as much on average as migrants from other developing countries, and those from poorer African countries are more likely to remit than those from richer African countries. Male migrants remit more than female migrants, particularly among those with a spouse remaining in the home country; more-educated migrants remit more than less educated migrants; and although the amount remitted increases with income earned, the gradient is quite flat over a large range of income. Finally, there is little evidence that the amount remitted decays with time spent abroad, with reductions in the likelihood of remitting offset by increases in the amount remitted conditional on remitting
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5260
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 95
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    A framework for analyzing competition in the banking sector : An application to the case of Jordan (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli A framework for analyzing competition in the banking sector
    Abstract: This paper proposes a framework to analyze competition in the banking sector using Jordan as an example. In particular, the paper pursues a multi-pronged approach to analyze competition including (i) an examination of the extent to which the market is contestable (that is, has low barriers to bank entry and exit), (b) an evaluation of the behavior of bank spreads, and (iii) an assessment of nonstructural and direct measures of bank competition such as the H-statistic and the Lerner Index. This approach provides a more comprehensive framework to examine competition in the banking sector, compared with the commonly used alternative of looking only at bank concentration figures. In the case of Jordan, the analysis indicates that although concentration has declined, competition in the country is low and has decreased over time
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5499
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 96
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    The Economic Consequences of "Brain Drain" of the Best and Brightest : Microeconomic Evidence From Five Countries (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David The Economic Consequences of "Brain Drain" of the Best and Brightest
    Abstract: Brain drain has long been a common concern for migrant-sending countries, particularly for small countries where high-skilled emigration rates are highest. However, while economic theory suggests a number of possible benefits, in addition to costs, from skilled emigration, the evidence base on many of these is very limited. Moreover, the lessons from case studies of benefits to China and India from skilled emigration may not be relevant to much smaller countries. This paper presents the results of innovative surveys which tracked academic high-achievers from five countries to wherever they moved in the world in order to directly measure at the micro level the channels through which high-skilled emigration affects the sending country. The results show that there are very high levels of emigration and of return migration among the very highly skilled; the income gains to the best and brightest from migrating are very large, and an order of magnitude or more greater than any other effect; there are large benefits from migration in terms of postgraduate education; most high-skilled migrants from poorer countries send remittances; but that involvement in trade and foreign direct investment is a rare occurrence. There is considerable knowledge flow from both current and return migrants about job and study opportunities abroad, but little net knowledge sharing from current migrants to home country governments or businesses. Finally, the fiscal costs vary considerably across countries, and depend on the extent to which governments rely on progressive income taxation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5394
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  • 97
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    Islamic vs. conventional banking : business model, efficiency and stability (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Islamic vs. conventional banking
    Abstract: This paper discusses Islamic banking products and interprets them in the context of financial intermediation theory. Anecdotal evidence shows that many of the conventional products can be redrafted as Sharia-compliant products, so that the differences are smaller than expected. Comparing conventional and Islamic banks and controlling for other bank and country characteristics, the authors find few significant differences in business orientation, efficiency, asset quality, or stability. While Islamic banks seem more cost-effective than conventional banks in a broad cross-country sample, this finding reverses in a sample of countries with both Islamic and conventional banks. However, conventional banks that operate in countries with a higher market share of Islamic banks are more cost-effective but less stable. There is also consistent evidence of higher capitalization of Islamic banks and this capital cushion plus higher liquidity reserves explains the relatively better performance of Islamic banks during the recent crisis
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5446
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 98
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    Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Delavande, Adeline Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries
    Abstract: Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5458
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 99
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    Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time : Data and Analysis (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time
    Abstract: This paper introduces the updated and expanded version of the Financial Development and Structure Database and presents recent trends in structure and development of financial institutions and markets across countries. The authors add indicators on banking structure and financial globalization. They find a deepening of both financial markets and institutions, a trend concentrated in high-income countries and more pronounced for markets than for banks. Similarly, the recent increase in cross-border lending and debt issues has been concentrated in high-income countries, while low and lower-middle income countries have experienced an increase in remittance flows. Low net interest margins, rising profitability and declining stability in high-income countries’ banking sectors characterize the recent financial sector boom in high income countries leading up to the global financial crisis of 2007
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4943
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 100
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    Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development : What Have We Learned and What Should We Learn? (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: McKenzie, David Impact Assessments in Finance and Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Until recently rigorous impact evaluations have been rare in the area of finance and private sector development. One reason for this is the perception that many policies and projects in this area lend themselves less to formal evaluations. However, a vanguard of new impact evaluations on areas as diverse as fostering microenterprise growth, microfinance, rainfall insurance, and regulatory reform demonstrates that in many circumstances serious evaluation is possible. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and distil the policy and implementation lessons emerging from these studies, use them to demonstrate the feasibility of impact evaluations in a broader array of topics, and thereby help prompt new impact evaluations for projects going forward
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4944
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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