Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (35 p)
Edition:
2010 World Bank eLibrary
Parallel Title:
Delavande, Adeline Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries
Abstract:
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy
DOI:
10.1596/1813-9450-5458
URL:
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