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  • 2010-2014  (1)
  • 1995-1999  (75)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (76)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Economic mobility and the rise of the Latin American middle class (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 9780821396346
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies
    DDC: 305.5/5098
    Keywords: Households Economic aspects ; Income ; Middle class ; Occupational mobility ; Social mobility
    Note: Includes bibliographical references , IntroductionEconomic mobility and the middle class: concepts and measurement -- Mobility across generations -- Mobility within generations -- The rising Latin American and Caribbean middle class -- The middle class and the social contract in Latin America
    DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9634-6
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    München BSB
    BSZ
    GBV
    KOBV
    BVB
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Developing Country Agriculture and the New Trade Agenda (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Developing Country Agriculture and the New Trade Agenda
    Keywords: Agribusiness ; Agricultural Production ; Agricultural Protection ; Agriculture ; Competition ; Debt Markets ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Regulations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Resources ; Rural Communities ; Social Protections and Labor ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Taxation ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Production ; Agricultural Protection ; Agriculture ; Competition ; Debt Markets ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Regulations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Resources ; Rural Communities ; Social Protections and Labor ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Taxation ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: May 1999 - In the new round of World Trade Organization talks expected in late 1999, negotiations about access to agricultural and services markets should be given top priority, but new trade agenda issues should also be discussed. Including new trade agenda issues would increase market discipline's role in the allocation of resources in agriculture and would encourage nonagricultural groups with interests in the new issues to take part in the round, counterbalancing forces favoring agricultural protection. A new round of World Trade Organization negotiations on agriculture, services, and perhaps other issues is expected in late 1999. To what extent should those negotiations include new trade agenda items aimed at ensuring that domestic regulatory policies do not discriminate against foreign suppliers? Hoekman and Anderson argue that negotiations about market access should be given priority, as the potential welfare gains from liberalizing access to agricultural (and services) markets are still huge, but new issues should be included too. Including new trade agenda issues would increase the role of market discipline in the allocation of resources in agriculture and would encourage nonagricultural groups with interests in the new issues to take part in the round, counterbalancing forces in favor of agricultural protection. They also argue, however, that rule-making efforts to accommodate the new issues should be de-linked from negotiations about access to agricultural markets, because the issues affect activity in all sectors. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze options and priorities for developing countries in the run-up to a new round of WTO negotiations. Bernard Hoekman may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or kanderson@economics.adelaide.edu.au
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessing the Impact of Micro-credit on Poverty and Vulnerability in Bangladesh (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Zaman, Hassan Assessing the Impact of Micro-credit on Poverty and Vulnerability in Bangladesh
    Keywords: Access To Cred Bank ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowers ; Borrowing ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Cred Household Expenditure ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Illiteracy ; Income ; Income Sources ; Investing ; Knowledge ; Loan ; Loan Period ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Risk Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Senior ; Student ; Supply ; Welfare ; Access To Cred Bank ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowers ; Borrowing ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Cred Household Expenditure ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Illiteracy ; Income ; Income Sources ; Investing ; Knowledge ; Loan ; Loan Period ; Loans ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Risk Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Senior ; Student ; Supply ; Welfare
    Abstract: July 1999 - While micro-credit interventions can play an important role in reducing vulnerability through a number of channels, a significant impact on poverty reduction is achieved under more restrictive conditions. These conditions revolve around whether the borrower has crossed a cumulative loan threshold and on how poor the household is to start with. Zaman examines the extent to which micro-credit reduces poverty and vulnerability through a case study of BRAC, one of the largest providers of micro-credit to the poor in Bangladesh. Household consumption data collected from 1,072 households is used to show that the largest effect on poverty arises when a moderate-poor BRAC loanee borrows more that 10,000 taka (US
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade?
    Keywords: Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: August 1999 - The results of a modified gravity model suggest that the new wave of regionalism has not boosted intra-bloc trading significantly. Trade liberalization in Latin America did have a positive impact on the imports of bloc members, although MERCOSUR's exports did poorly over the mid-1990s. Soloaga and Winters apply a gravity model to data on annual nonfuel imports for 58 countries for the years 1980-96, to quantify the effects on trade of recently created or revamped preferential trade agreements (PTAs). They modify the usual gravity equation to identify the separate effects of PTAs on intra-bloc trade, members' total imports, and members' total exports. They also formally test the significance of changes in the estimated coefficients before and after the blocs' formation. Their estimates give no indication that the new wave of regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly. They found convincing evidence of trade diversion only for the European Union and the European Free Trade Association. For the same blocs they also observed export diversion, which would be consistent with these blocs' imposing a welfare cost on the rest of the world. Trade liberalization efforts in Latin America have had a positive impact on the imports of bloc members (Andean Group, Central American Common Market, Latin American Integration Association, and MERCOSUR). Increasing propensities to export generally accompanied increasing propensities to import, suggesting that general trade liberalization had a strong effect. The exception was MERCOSUR, for which import and export propensities displayed opposite movements, with exports performing worse than expected over the mid-1990s. Although MERCOSUR members have undoubtedly liberalized since the mid-1980s, these results suggest that their trade performance has been influenced more by competitiveness than by trade policy. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of regional integration. The authors may be contacted at isoloagaworldbank.org or l.a.winters@sussex.ac.uk
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Will the Real Natural Trading Partner Please Stand Up? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schiff, Maurice Will the Real Natural Trading Partner Please Stand Up?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Unions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreements ; Free Trade Areas ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Perfect Competition ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreement ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regional Trade ; Tariff ; Tariff Revenues ; Trade ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport Costs ; Volume Of Trade ; World Trade
    Abstract: August 1999 - Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents argue the opposite. Neither side is right. The hypothesis holds up only if two countries are natural trading partners in the sense that one country tends to import what the other exports. Adherents of the natural trading partner hypothesis argue that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are more likely to improve welfare if participating countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare gains are likely to be greater if participating countries trade less with each other. Schiff shows that neither analysis is correct. The natural trading partner hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability in the trade relations of countries, rather than in terms of their volume of trade. Schiff asks not whether a country should form or join a trading bloc but which partner or partners it should select if it does join such a bloc. He shows that the pre-PTA volume of trade is not a useful criterion for selecting a partner. The pre-PTA volume is equal to zero if the partner is an importer of the good sold to the home country and it is indeterminate if the partner is an exporter of that good. Among Schiff's conclusions: ° The home country is better off with a large partner country. First, a large partner is more likely to satisfy the home country's import demand at the world price. Second, the home country is likely to gain more on its exports to a large partner country, because that partner is likely to continue importing from the world market after formation of the trading bloc. And since the partner charges a tariff on imports from the world market, the home country is more likely to improve its terms of trade by selling to the partner at the higher tariff-inclusive price if the partner is large. ° The PTA as a whole is likely to be better off if each country imports what the other exports (rather than each country importing what the other imports). Losses are similar but less likely, while gains are both more likely and the same or larger. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the economics of regional integration. The author may be contacted at mschiffworldbank.org
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (70 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnam's Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area
    Keywords: Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Access ; Capital Goods ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Industries ; Domestic Production ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Import Competition ; Intermediate Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Openness ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tariff ; Trade Creation ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Unilateral Liberalization
    Abstract: November 1999 - The static economic benefits of Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are likely to be relatively small. The gains from increased access to ASEAN markets would be small, and they would be offset by the costs of trade diversion on the import side. But binding commitments on protection rates under the AFTA plan could provide an important stepping stone to more beneficial broader liberalization. Vietnam's accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been an important step in its integration into the world economy. Fukase and Martin use a multiregion, multisector computable general equilibrium model to evaluate how different trade liberalization policies of Vietnam and its main trading partners affect Vietnam's welfare, taking into account the simultaneous impacts on trade, output, and industrial structure. They conclude that: · The static economywide effects of the AFTA liberalization to which Vietnam is currently committed are small. On the import side, the exclusion of a series of products from the AFTA commitments appears to limit the scope of trade creation, and the discriminatory nature of AFTA liberalization would divert Vietnam's trade from non-ASEAN members. · Vietnam's small initial exports to ASEAN make the gains from improved access to partner markets relatively modest. Since Singapore dominates Vietnam's ASEAN exports and initial protection in Singapore is close to zero, there are few gains from preferred status in this market. · When Vietnam extends its AFTA commitments to all of its trading partners on a most favored nation basis, its welfare increases substantially - partly because of the greater extent of liberalization, partly because the broader liberalization undoes the costly trade diversion created by the initial discriminatory liberalization, and finally because of the more efficient allocation of resources among Vietnam's industries. · AFTA, APEC, and unilateral liberalizations affect Vietnam's industries in different ways. AFTA appears to benefit Vietnam's agriculture by improving its access to the ASEAN market. · Broad unilateral liberalization beyond AFTA is likely to shift labor away from agriculture and certain import-competing activities toward relatively labor-intensive manufacturing. Reduced costs for intermediate inputs will benefit domestic production. These sectors conform to Vietnam's current comparative advantage, and undertaking broad unilateral liberalization now seems a promising way to facilitate the subsequent development of competitive firms in more capital- and skill-intensive sectors. By contrast, more intense import competition may lead some import substitution industries (now dependent on protection) to contract. · The higher level of welfare resulting from more comprehensive liberalization implies that the sectoral protection currently given to capital-intensive and strategic industries is imposing substantial implicit taxes on the rest of the economy. · All the above suggests that AFTA should be treated as an important initial step toward broader liberalization. Binding international commitments in AFTA and, in due course, at the World Trade Organization can provide a credible signal of Vietnam's commitment to open trade policies that will help stimulate the upgrading of existing firms and investment in efficient and dynamic firms. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - was prepared as part of the AFTA Expansion Project in collaboration with the East Asia and Pacific Region. The authors may be contacted at efukaseworldbank.org or wmartin1@worldbank.org
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    How Did Highly Indebted Poor Countries Become Highly Indebted? : Reviewing Two Decades of Debt Relief (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William How Did Highly Indebted Poor Countries Become Highly Indebted?
    Keywords: Amount Of Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commercial Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Payment ; Debt Relief ; Debt Service ; Debt Servicing ; Debt-Service ; Default ; Discount ; Discount Rate ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Loan ; Foreign Loans ; Forgiveness ; Good ; Indebted Countries ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Productive Investments ; Strategic Debt Management ; Third World Debt ; Amount Of Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Commercial Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Debt Payment ; Debt Relief ; Debt Service ; Debt Servicing ; Debt-Service ; Default ; Discount ; Discount Rate ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Loan ; Foreign Loans ; Forgiveness ; Good ; Indebted Countries ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Productive Investments ; Strategic Debt Management ; Third World Debt
    Abstract: November 1999 - Theoretical models predict that countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences will respond to debt relief by running up new debts or by running down assets. And there are some signs that incremental debt relief over the past two decades has fulfilled those predictions. Debt relief is futile for countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences. How did highly indebted poor countries become highly indebted after two decades of debt relief efforts? A set of theoretical models predict that countries with unchanged long-run savings preferences will respond to debt relief with a mixture of asset decumulation and new borrowing. A model also predicts that a high-discount-rate government will choose poor policies and impose its intertemporal preferences on the entire economy. Reviewing the experience of highly indebted poor countries, compared with that of other developing countries, Easterly finds direct and indirect evidence of asset decumulation and new borrowing associated with debt relief. The ratio of the net present value of debt to exports rose strongly over 1979-97 despite the debt relief efforts. Average policies in highly indebted poor countries were generally worse than those in other developing countries, controlling for income. The trend for terms of trade was no different in highly indebted poor countries than in other developing countries, not were wars more likely in highly indebted poor countries. Over time there has been an important shift in financing for highly indebted poor countries, away from private and bilateral nonconcessional sources to the International Development Association and other sources of multilateral concessional financing. But this implicit form of debt relief also failed to reduce debt in net present value terms. Although debt relief is done in the name of the poor, the poor are worse off if debt relief creates incentives to delay reforms needed for growth. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effectiveness of aid for growth. The author may be contacted at weasterlyworldbank.org
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Infrastructure's Contribution to Aggregate Output (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Canning, David Infrastructure's Contribution to Aggregate Output
    Keywords: Capital ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Externalities ; Externality ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Levels ; Inputs ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity ; Marginal Products ; Outcomes ; Prices ; Production ; Production Function ; Productivity ; Social Protections and Labor ; Taxation ; Telecommunications ; Theory ; Total Factor Productivity ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Variables ; Capital ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Externalities ; Externality ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Levels ; Inputs ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity ; Marginal Products ; Outcomes ; Prices ; Production ; Production Function ; Productivity ; Social Protections and Labor ; Taxation ; Telecommunications ; Theory ; Total Factor Productivity ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Variables
    Abstract: Of the major kinds of physical infrastructure, electricity generating capacity has roughly the same marginal productivity as physical capital as a whole. So have roads-plus-rail, globally and in lower-income countries. Telephones, however, and transport routes in higher-income countries, have higher marginal productivity than other kinds of capital. - Using panel data for a cross-section of countries, Canning estimates an aggregate production function that includes infrastructure capital. He finds that: · The productivity of physical and human capital is close to the levels suggested by microeconomic evidence on their private returns. · Electricity generating capacity and transportation networks have roughly the same marginal productivity as capital as a whole. · Telephone networks appear to show higher marginal productivity than other types of capital. Panel data cointegration methods used in estimation take account of the nonstationary nature of the data, are robust to reverse causation, and allow for different levels of productivity and different short-run business-cycle and multiplier relationships across countries. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the impact of public expenditures. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Infrastructure and Growth: A Multicountry Panel Study (RPO 680-89). The author may be contacted at d.canningqub.ac.uk
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  • 9
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    Universal Service Obligations in Utility Concession Contracts and the Needs of the Poor in Argentina's Privatizations (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Estache, Antonio Universal Service Obligations in Utility Concession Contracts and the Needs of the Poor in Argentina's Privatizations
    Keywords: Bank ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Consumer ; Consumers ; Customers ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Disabilities ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Expenses ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Income ; Income Level ; Industry ; Investment ; Lack Of Interest ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Pensioners ; Population ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Savings ; Subsidies ; Supply ; Technology Industry ; Valuable ; Valuation ; Worth ; Bank ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Consumer ; Consumers ; Customers ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Disabilities ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Energy ; Energy Production and Transportation ; Expenses ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Income ; Income Level ; Industry ; Investment ; Lack Of Interest ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Pensioners ; Population ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Savings ; Subsidies ; Supply ; Technology Industry ; Valuable ; Valuation ; Worth
    Abstract: The structural changes that come with privatization may induce a reconsideration of the regulations defined during the early stages of privatization. - Chisari and Estache summarize the main lessons emerging from Argentina's experience, including universal service obligations in concession contracts. They discuss free-riding risks, moral hazard problems, and other issues that arise when social concerns are delegated to private operators. After reporting on Argentina's experience, Chisari and Estache suggest some guidelines: · Anticipate interjurisdictional externalities. Users' mobility makes targeting service obligations difficult. · Minimize the risks imposed by elusive demand. In providing new services, a gradual policy may work better than a shock. · Realize that unemployment leads to delinquency and lower expected tariffs. Elasticity of fixed and usage charges is important. · Deal with the fact that the poor have limited access to credit. Ultimately, plans that included credit for the payment of infrastructure charges were not that successful. · Coordinate regulatory, employment, and social policy. One successful plan to provide universal service involved employing workers from poor families in infrastructure extension works. · Beware of the latent opportunism of users who benefit from special programs. Special treatment of a sector may encourage free-riding (for example, pensioners overused the telephone until a limit was placed on the number of subsidized phone calls they could make). · Fixed allocations for payment of services do not ensure that universal service obligations will be met. How do you deal with the problem that many pensioners do not pay their bills? · Anticipate that operators will have more information than regulators do. If companies exaggerate supply costs in remote areas, direct interaction with poor users there may lead to the selection of more cost-effective technologies. · Tailored programs are often much more effective than standardized programs. They are clearly more expensive but, when demand-driven, are also more effective. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation. The authors may be contacted at ochisariuade.edu or aestache@worldbank.org
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  • 10
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    Geographical Disadvantage : A Heckscher-Ohlin-- von Thunen Model of International Specialization (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Venables, Anthony Geographical Disadvantage
    Keywords: Benchmark ; Economic Structures ; Elasticities ; Elasticity ; Exports ; Goods ; High Transport ; Income ; Infrastructure ; Outcomes ; Price Changes ; Prices ; Production ; Theory ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Transport ; Transport ; Transport Costs ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Variables ; Welfare ; Benchmark ; Economic Structures ; Elasticities ; Elasticity ; Exports ; Goods ; High Transport ; Income ; Infrastructure ; Outcomes ; Price Changes ; Prices ; Production ; Theory ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Transport ; Transport ; Transport Costs ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Variables ; Welfare
    Abstract: What effect does distance have on costs for economies at different locations? Exports and imports of final and intermediate goods bear transport costs that increase with distance. Production and trade depend on factor endowments and factor intensities as well as on distance and the transport intensities of different goods. - The combination of distance, poor infrastructure, and being landlocked by neighbors with poor infrastructure can make transport costs many times higher for some developing countries than for most others. Drawing on two traditions of economic modeling - Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory and von Thunen's work on the isolated state - Venables and Limão analyze the trade and production patterns of countries located at varying distances from an economic center. Predicting a country's production and trade pattern requires knowledge of the country's location, its factor endowment, and the factor intensities and transport intensities of goods. Venables and Limão define transport intensity and show how location and transport intensity should be combined with factor abundance and factor intensity in determining trade flows. A theory based on only one set of those variables, such as factor abundance, will systematically make incorrect predictions. They report that geography and endowments interact in such a way that the world divides up into economic zones with different trade patterns. Countries close to the economic center may specialize in transport-intensive activities; countries further out become diversified, producing and sometimes trading more goods; countries still further out may become import-substituting (replacing some of their imports from the center with local production); in the extreme, regions become autarkic. More remote locations have lower real incomes. Globalization changes the terms of trade, improving the welfare of regions further out from economic centers, though reducing the welfare of closer regions. Where will a new activity, such as assembly of a new product, locate? Remote locations are disadvantaged if the product has high transport intensity (perhaps because of heavy requirements for intermediate inputs). But the costs of remoteness are already incorporated into the factor prices of those regions, which makes them more attractive. Which location is chosen depends, therefore, on how existing activities compare with the new activity in transport intensity and factor intensity. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the location of economic activity. The authors may be contacted at avenablesworldbank.org or ngl4@columbia.edu
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  • 11
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    Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises : Do Resident Firms Have an Informational Advantage? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises
    Keywords: Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt ; Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: December 1999 - Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. Kaufmann, Mehrez, and Schmukler investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work. They propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters. They test their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set, the Global Competitiveness Survey. The survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside. They find that local managers do have useful private information. Local managers' responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate, which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials. They find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the Republic of Korea, Russia, and Thailand, but not those in Indonesia and Malaysia. Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the roles of transparency and governance. The authors may be contacted at dkaufmannworldbank.org, mehrezg@gunet.georgetown.edu, or sschmukler@worldbank.org
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  • 12
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    Willingness to Pay for Air Quality Improvements in Sofia, Bulgaria (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wang, Hua Willingness to Pay for Air Quality Improvements in Sofia, Bulgaria
    Keywords: Air Pollution ; Air Quality and Clean Air ; Biodiversity ; Choice ; Contingent Valuation ; Debt Markets ; Distribution ; E-Business ; Econometric Analyses ; Econometric Analysis ; Econometric Models ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Value ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Exogenous Variables ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Future Studies ; Goods ; Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Payments ; Positive Effects ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Good ; Utility ; Utility Function ; Variables ; Air Pollution ; Air Quality and Clean Air ; Biodiversity ; Choice ; Contingent Valuation ; Debt Markets ; Distribution ; E-Business ; Econometric Analyses ; Econometric Analysis ; Econometric Models ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic Value ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Exogenous Variables ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Future Studies ; Goods ; Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Payments ; Positive Effects ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Good ; Utility ; Utility Function ; Variables
    Abstract: January 2000 - People in Sofia are willing to pay 4.2 percent of their income or more for a program to improve air quality. Through a survey, Wang and Whittington study willingness to pay for improvements in air quality in Sofia, Bulgaria. Using a stochastic payment card approach - asking respondents the likelihood that they would agree to pay a series of prices - they estimate the distribution of willingness to pay various prices. They find that people in Sofia are willing to pay up to about 4.2 percent of their income for a program to improve air quality. The income elasticity of willingness to pay for air quality improvements is about 27 percent. For comparison, they also used the referendum contingent valuation approach. Results from that approach yielded a higher estimate of willingness to pay. This paper - a product of Infrastructure and Environment, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the economics of pollution control in developing countries. Copies of the paper are available from Hua Wang may be contacted at hwang1worldbank.org
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  • 13
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    Identifying Welfare Effects from Subjective Questions (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Identifying Welfare Effects from Subjective Questions
    Keywords: Bank ; Current Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Support ; Future Incomes ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Incomes ; Inequality ; Information ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Monthly Income ; Personality Tra Personality Traits ; Population ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Psychological Traits ; Questionnaire ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployed ; Unemployment ; Welfare ; Bank ; Current Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Support ; Future Incomes ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Incomes ; Inequality ; Information ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Monthly Income ; Personality Tra Personality Traits ; Population ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Psychological Traits ; Questionnaire ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployed ; Unemployment ; Welfare
    Abstract: March 2000 - In subjective surveys, people who become ill or lose their jobs report reduced well-being, even if they later get a job. Perhaps their exposure to uninsured risk outside the formal employment sector reduces their expectations about future income. Do potential biases cloud the inferences that can be drawn from subjective surveys? Ravallion and Lokshin argue that the welfare inferences drawn from subjective answers to questions on qualitative surveys are clouded by concerns about the structure of measurement errors and how latent psychological factors influence observed respondent characteristics. They propose a panel data model that allows more robust tests. In applying the model to high-quality panel data for Russia for 1994-96, they find that some results widely reported in past studies of subjective well-being appear to be robust but others do not. Household income, for example, is a highly significant predictor of self-rated economic welfare; per capita income is a weaker predictor. Ill health and loss of a job reduce self-reported economic welfare, but demographic effects are weak at a given current income. And the effect of unemployment is not robust. Returning to work does not restore a sense of welfare unless there is an income gain. The results imply that even transient unemployment brings the feeling of a permanent welfare loss, suggesting that high unemployment benefits do not attract people out of work but do discourage a return to work. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the relationship between subjective and objective economic welfare. The authors may be contacted at mravallionworldbank.org and mlokshin@worldbank.org
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  • 14
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    How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Min, G. Hong How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Government Bond ; Government Bond Yield ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Policies ; Money Market ; Money Market Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Stock ; Asset Prices ; Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Structure ; Financial System ; Government Bond ; Government Bond Yield ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Authority ; Monetary Policies ; Money Market ; Money Market Rate ; Private Sector Development ; Stock
    Abstract: April 2000 - How Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of Korea's real effective exchange rate, money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. Min and Park explore how Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of asset prices. Documented empirical evidence of the relationship between financial structure and financial crisis sheds light on the relationship between asset price volatility - extreme variations in prices - and financial structure. And the volatility of financial and nonfinancial asset prices provides an indirect link between an economy's financial structure and the likelihood of financial crisis. Using time-series data and a set of indicators measuring financial structure, Min and Park examine how Korea's financial structure affects the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. They find: · There is a stable long-term relationship between financial structure and volatility in the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, stock prices, and the yield on government housing bonds. · Financial structure affects asset price variables asymmetrically. Some variables' volatility increases and others' diminish, suggesting that monetary policies should target different asset markets to achieve different goals. If the goal of the monetary authority is to stabilize the money market rate, for example, intervening in the banking sector is more efficient than intervening in other financial subsectors. · The higher volatility of stock prices reflects the thin stock market in Korea. · The stability of the yield on government housing bonds reflects the Korean government's policy of stabilizing the nation's housing supply by isolating the housing market from the impact of Korea's financial structure. · Restrictions on foreigners' ownership of domestic stock in Korea during the period analyzed, and the fact that most capital flows through commercial banks, affect the exchange rate, which is determined (at least in the short run) by capital flows in the foreign exchange market. This paper - a product of the Macroeconomic Data Team, Development Data Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the financial structure of developing countries based on empirical data. The authors may be contacted at hmin56aol.com or jpark@worldbank.org
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  • 15
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    Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (68 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago Output Fluctuations in Latin America
    Keywords: Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt ; Accounting ; Bond ; Bonds ; Business Cycles ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Capital Flows ; Capital Markets ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Interest Rates ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Interest Rates ; International Development ; International Interest ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Real Exchange Rate ; Real Exchange Rates ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rate ; Real Interest Rates ; Share ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variables - real interest rates and real exchange rates - were more stable in these two years. Herrera, Perry, and Quintero explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-99. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Niño). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50 - 60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogenous variables, such as domestic real interest rates and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial production data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector autoregressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the subperiod 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office - is part of a larger effort to understand output fluctuations and growth in the region. The authors may be contacted at gperryworldbank.org or nquintero@worldbank.org
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  • 16
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    Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions : When Are Independent Central Banks Irrelevant? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Keefer, Philip Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Central Bank Independence ; Central Banks ; Checks ; Contracts ; Credibility ; Credibility Problem ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Default ; Discount ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Investments ; Future ; Futures ; Holding ; ICT Applications ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Money Supply ; Option ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Shocks To Income
    Abstract: March 2000 - Does delegation of policymaking authority to independent agencies improve policy outcomes? This paper reports new theory and tests related to delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank. The authors find that delegation reduces inflation only under specific institutional and political conditions. The government's ability to credibly commit to policy announcements is critical to the successful implementation of economic policies as diverse as capital taxation and utilities regulation. One frequently advocated means of signaling credible commitment is to delegate authority to an agency that will not have an incentive to opportunistically change policies once the private sector has taken such steps as signing wage contracts or making irreversible investments. Delegating authority is suggested as a government strategy particularly for monetary policy. And existing work on the independence of central banks generally assumes that government decisions to delegate are irrevocable. But delegation - in monetary policy as elsewhere - is inevitably a political choice, and can be reversed, contend Keefer and Stasavage. They develop a model of monetary policy that relaxes the assumption that monetary delegation is irreversible. Among the testable predictions of the model are these: · The presence of an independent central bank should reduce inflation only in the presence of political checks and balances. This effect should be evident in both developing and industrial countries. · Political actions to interfere with the central bank should be more apparent when there are few checks and balances. · The effects of checks and balances should be more marked when political decisionmakers are more polarized. The authors test these predictions and find extensive empirical evidence to support each of the observable implications of their model: Central banks are associated with better inflation outcomes in the presence of checks and balances. The turnover of central bank governors is reduced when governors have tenure protections supported by political checks and balances. And the effect of checks and balances is enhanced in more polarized political environments. This paper - a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to identify the conditions under which regulatory reforms can be effective. The authors may be contacted at pkeeferworldbank.org or d.stasavage@lse.ac.uk
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  • 17
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    Financial Openness, Democracy, and Redistributive Policy (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dailami, Mansoor Financial Openness, Democracy, and Redistributive Policy
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bonds ; Capital Flows ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Openness ; Free Capital ; Future ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Government Policies ; Information Technologies ; Insurance ; International Capital ; International Capital Mobility ; International Financial Markets ; International Financial System ; International Lending ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Integration ; Moral Hazard ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: June 2000 - What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability. The debate about the relationship between democratic forms of government and the free movement of capital across borders dates to the 18th century. It has regained prominence as capital on a massive scale has become increasingly mobile and as free economies experience continuous pressure from rapidly changing technology, market integration, changing consumer preferences, and intensified competition. These changes imply greater uncertainty about citizens' future income positions, which could prompt them to seek insurance through the marketplace or through constitutionally arranged income redistribution. As more countries move toward democracy, the availability of such insurance mechanisms to citizens is key if political pressure for capital controls is to be averted and if public support for an open, liberal international financial order is to be maintained. Dailami briefly reviews how today's international financial system evolved from one of mostly closed capital accounts immediately after World War II to today's enormous, largely free-flowing market. Drawing on insights from the literature on public choice and constitutional political economy, Dailami develops an analytical framework for a welfare cost-benefit analysis of financial openness to international capital flows. The main welfare benefits of financial openness derive from greater economic efficiency and increased opportunities for risk diversification. The welfare costs relate to the cost of insurance used as a mechanism for coping with the risks of financial volatility. These insurance costs are the economic losses associated with redistribution, including moral hazard, rent-seeking, and rent-avoidance. A cross-sectional analysis of a large sample of developed and developing countries shows the positive correlation between democracy (as defined by political and civil liberty) and financial openness. More rigorous econometric investigation using logit analysis and controlling for level of income also shows that redistributive social policies are key in determining the likelihood that countries can successfully combine an openness to international capital mobility with democratic forms of government. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute- is part of a broader research effort on The Quality of Growth. The author may be contacted at mdailamiworldbank.org
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  • 18
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    Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance : A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Knack, Stephen Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance
    Keywords: Accountability ; Aid Dependence ; Bureaucracy ; Bureaucratic Quality ; Corruption ; Country Data ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Disability ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Aid ; Gender ; Gender and Health ; Good Governance ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Income ; Income Growth ; Institutional Quality ; Institutions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Natural Resources ; Per Capita Incomes ; Policy Implications ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Reverse Causality ; Rule Of Law ; School Health ; Social Protections and Labor ; Accountability ; Aid Dependence ; Bureaucracy ; Bureaucratic Quality ; Corruption ; Country Data ; Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness ; Disability ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Aid ; Gender ; Gender and Health ; Good Governance ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Income ; Income Growth ; Institutional Quality ; Institutions ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Natural Resources ; Per Capita Incomes ; Policy Implications ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Reverse Causality ; Rule Of Law ; School Health ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: July 2000 - Do higher levels of aid erode the very quality of governance poor countries need for sustained and rapid income growth? Good governance-in the form of institutions that establish predictable, impartial, and consistently enforced rules for investors-is crucial for the sustained and rapid growth of per capita incomes in poor countries. Aid dependence can undermine institutional quality by weakening accountability, encouraging rent seeking and corruption, fomenting conflict over control of aid funds, siphoning off scarce talent from the bureaucracy, and alleviating pressures to reform inefficient policies and institutions. Knack's analyses of cross-country data provide evidence that higher aid levels erode the quality of governance, as measured by indexes of bureaucratic quality, corruption, and the rule of law. This negative relationship strengthens when instruments for aid are used to correct for potential reverse causality. It is robust to changes in the sample and to several alternative forms of estimation. Recent studies have concluded that aid's impact on economic growth and infant mortality is conditional on policy and institutional gaps. Knack's results indicate that the size of the institutional gap itself increases with aid levels. This paper-a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to identify the determinants of good governance and institutions conducive to long-run economic development. The author may be contacted at sknackworldbank.org
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  • 19
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    A Regime-Switching Approach to Studying Speculative Attacks : A Focus on European Monetary System Crises (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (57 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria A Regime-Switching Approach to Studying Speculative Attacks
    Keywords: Central Bank ; Crawling Peg ; Currencies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dependent Variable ; Devaluations ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; European Monetary System ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Mechanism ; Exchange Rates ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve Bank ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes ; Fixed Exchange Rate Systems ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Speculative Attack ; Speculative Attacks ; Speculative Pressure ; Central Bank ; Crawling Peg ; Currencies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dependent Variable ; Devaluations ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; European Monetary System ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Mechanism ; Exchange Rates ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve Bank ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes ; Fixed Exchange Rate Systems ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Speculative Attack ; Speculative Attacks ; Speculative Pressure
    Abstract: June 1999 - A regime-switching framework is used to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System currencies during 1979-93. Peria uses a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System (EMS) currencies during 1979-93. She identifies speculative attacks by modeling exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts. She assumes two states: tranquil and speculative. She models the probabilities of switching between states as a function of fundamentals and expectations. She concludes that: ° The switching models with time-varying transition probabilities capture most of the conventional episodes of speculative attacks. ° Speculative attacks do not always coincide with currency realignments. ° Both economic fundamentals and expectations determine the likelihood of switching from a period of tranquility to a speculative attack. The budget deficit appears to be an especially important factor driving the probability of switching to a speculative regime. Given the importance of anticipating and, wherever possible, avoiding crises, it might be useful to conduct forecasting exercises to determine whether the switching framework proposed here can be used to forecast crises in countries outside the sample. Because currency crises tend to occur simultaneously in two or more countries, it also might be useful to adapt the regime-switching framework to explore the role of contagion in explaining crises. This paper-a product of Finance, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand currency crises. The author may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org
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  • 20
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    The Slippery Slope : Explaining the Increase in Extreme Poverty in Urban Brazil, 1976 96 (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (78 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Barros, de Paes Ricardo The Slippery Slope
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Extreme Poverty ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Formal Safety Nets ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Composition ; Household Income ; Household Per Capita Income ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measures ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Population Policies ; Poverty Incidence ; Poverty Indices ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measures ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Extreme Poverty ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Formal Safety Nets ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Composition ; Household Income ; Household Per Capita Income ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Measures ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Population Policies ; Poverty Incidence ; Poverty Indices ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Measures ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: October 1999 - During the turbulent years 1976-96, aggregate data for Brazil appear to show only small changes in mean income, inequality, and incidence of poverty - suggesting little change in the distribution of income. But a small group of urban households - excluded from formal labor markets and safety nets - was trapped in indigence. Based on welfare measured in terms of income alone, the poorest part of urban Brazil has experienced two lost decades. Despite tremendous macroeconomic instability in Brazil, the country's distributions of urban income in 1976 and 1996 appear, at first glance, deceptively similar. Mean household income per capita was stagnant, with minute accumulated growth (4.3 percent) over the two decades. The Gini coefficient hovered just above 0.59 in both years, and the incidence of poverty (relative to a poverty line of R
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    Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uniform Tariffs (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Gatti, Roberta Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uniform Tariffs
    Keywords: Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency ; Accounting ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Administration and Reform ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Future ; Good ; Goods ; Government Revenue ; Government Revenues ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Prices ; Open Economy ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Returns ; Revenue ; Share ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Taxes ; Trade Policy ; Transparency
    Abstract: November 1999 - A highly diversified trade tariff menu may fuel bribe-taking behavior. Setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. By explicitly accounting for the interaction between importers and corrupt customs officials, Gatti argues that setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers. If the government's main objective is to raise revenues at the minimum cost to welfare, optimally-set tariff rates will be inversely proportional to the elasticity of demand for imports. So they will generally differ across goods. Such a menu of tariff rates endows customs officials with the opportunity to extract rent from importers. If officials have enough discretionary power, they might threaten to misclassify goods into more heavily taxed categories unless importers pay them a bribe. Because of the bribe, the effective tariff rate for the importing firm increases, so demand for the good decreases. The resulting drop in import demand implies an efficiency loss as well as lower government revenues, compared with the optimal taxation benchmark without corruption. A similar argument applies when customs officials offer to classify goods into low-tariff categories in exchange for a bribe. Setting trade tariffs at a uniform level eliminates officials' opportunities to extract rents. Thus, when corruption is pervasive, a uniform tariff can deliver more government revenues and welfare than the optimally set (Ramsey) tariff benchmark. The empirical evidence confirms that these considerations are relevant to policymaking, since a robust association between the standard deviation of trade tariffs - a measure of the diversification of tariff menus - and corruption emerges across countries. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study corruption. Please contact Roberta Gatti, Internet address rgattiworldbank.org
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    Who Avoids and Who Escapes from Poverty during the Transition? : Evidence from Polish Panel Data, 1993 96 (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (60 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Okrasa, Wlodzimierz Who Avoids and Who Escapes from Poverty during the Transition?
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Employment Income ; Farm Self-Employment ; Food Consumption ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Budget ; Household Income ; Household Welfare ; Human Capital ; Human Development ; Idiosyncratic Shocks ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Measures ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Unemployment ; Chronic Poverty ; Employment Income ; Farm Self-Employment ; Food Consumption ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Budget ; Household Income ; Household Welfare ; Human Capital ; Human Development ; Idiosyncratic Shocks ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Measures ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction Strategy ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: November 1999 - There is a tendency toward chronic, long-term poverty in Poland. Most at risk: larger households, farm households, and households dependent on social welfare. Least at risk: households of employees or the self-employed, educated households, households headed by pensioners, households that are part of kinship networks, and households with liquid assets, durables, or access to financial resources. Among those who missed out on the benefits of the first phase of economic prosperity, children are overrepresented. Okrasa uses four-year panel data from Poland's Household Budget Survey to explore the distinction between transitory and long-term poverty, a crucial distinction in designing and evaluating poverty reduction strategies. Okrasa analyzes household welfare trajectories during the period 1993-96, to identify the long-term poor and to determine how relevant household asset endowments are as determinants of household poverty and vulnerability over time. He concludes that the chronically poor constitute a distinct and separate segment of the population, with low turnover. Among specific observations about factors that affect Poland's long-term poverty: · Variables in human capital significantly affected the pattern of repeated poverty and vulnerability. Larger households tended to experience poverty and vulnerability, mostly because they contained more children or other dependents. Households with elderly members and those headed by older people, by women rather than men, and by educated people of either gender were least likely to be poor. Poverty was unaffected by the presence of a disabled person in the household. · Households with liquid assets or durables, or with access to financial resources, were less likely to be poor and vulnerable. Households appeared to take advantage of credit and loans to maintain their current level of consumption rather than to augment their stock of assets. · Households that were part of kinship networks were less at risk of falling into chronic poverty or vulnerability. · Households headed by pensioners were least in danger of impoverishment. Those most in danger were farm households (including mixed households headed by workers with an agricultural holding) and households heavily dependent on social welfare. · Households of employees were better off than self-employed households when income-based measures of poverty were used but not when consumption-based measures were used. Neither group was significantly vulnerable. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the dynamics of poverty and the effectiveness of the safety net. The author may be contacted at wokrasaworldbank.org
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    Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cohen, Daniel Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa?
    Keywords: Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve
    Abstract: At this stage, it is difficult to conclude that the euro will have substantial macroeconomic impact on sub-Saharan Africa, unless launch of the euro becomes the tool of a major policy shift, such as the euroization of the continent - which is currently unlikely. - In considering how the euro will affect Sub-Saharan Africa, Cohen, Kristensen, and Verner examine the transmission channels through which the euro could affect economies in the region. They examine the risks and opportunities the euro presents for Sub-Saharan African countries. They especially examine the effects from the trade channel, through changes in European economic activity and the real exchange rate. Because of the relatively low income elasticity for primary commodities - which is what Sub-Saharan Africa mainly exports - an increase in activity in Europe is considered to have a marginal impact on Africa. Exchange rate regimes and geographical trade patterns point to large differences in exposure to changes in the real exchange rate. Capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa can be affected through portfolio shifts or through changes in foreign direct investment. Changes in competitiveness in Europe are not expected to influence foreign direct investment, so the euro is not expected to affect foreign direct investment significantly. Portfolio diversification could increase greatly. But Sub-Saharan Africa is not expected to realize the increased potential from portfolio diversification because of its severely underdeveloped domestic capital markets. It is vitally important that Sub-Saharan African countries strengthen their financial integration into global markets. How the euro will affect such parts of the financial system as banks and debt and reserve management varies across countries. Generally the effect is expected to be limited. This paper - a product of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to study the effect of the euro on developing countries. The authors may be contacted at nkristensenworldbank.org or dverner@worldbank.org
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  • 24
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    The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (86 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability
    Keywords: Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables
    Abstract: March 2000 - Policymakers in countries undergoing banking crises should not worry about the structural stability of money demand functions; the behavior of money demand during crises can be modeled by the same function used during periods of tranquility. But policymakers should be aware that in some instances crises can give rise to variance instability in the price or inflation equations. Martinez Peria empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay. She uses cointegration analysis and error correction modeling to research: · Whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises. · Whether crises bring about structural breaks in the relationship between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, she finds no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability. Nor do the results consistently support the notion that the relationship between monetary indicators and prices undergoes structural breaks during crises. However, although individual coefficients in price equations do not seem to be severely affected by crises, crises can sometimes give rise to variance instability in price or inflation equations. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study banking crises. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Monetary Policy and Monetary Indicators during Banking Crises (RPO 683-24). The author may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org
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    What Drives Private Saving around the World? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman What Drives Private Saving around the World?
    Keywords: Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade ; Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade
    Abstract: March 2000 - Saving rates vary considerably across countries and over time. Policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates - which rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel, and Servén investigate the policy and nonpolicy factors behind saving disparities, using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving. They extend the literature in several dimensions by: · Using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date. · Using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity. · Performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures, data samples, and model specification. Their main empirical findings: · Private saving rates show considerable inertia (are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors). · Private saving rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. So policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates. · Predictions of the life-cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates. · The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation - conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility - has a positive impact on private saving, holding other facts constant. · Fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving. · The direct effects of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates. Greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate; financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the determinants of saving in developing countries. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Saving in the World: Puzzles and Policies (RPO 681-36). The authors may be contacted at nloayzaworldbank.org or lserven@worldbank.org
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    How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization : A Cross-Country Review (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates ; Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates
    Abstract: April 2000 - As financial liberalization progressed, the general level of real interest rates increased more in developing countries than it did in industrial countries. Volatility in wholesale interest rates also jumped, often markedly, in most liberalizing countries. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads showed the greatest increase in developing countries, shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Financial liberalization was expected to make interest rates and asset prices more volatile, with distributional consequences such as reduced or relocated rents and increased competition in financial services. Honohan examines available data on money market and bank interest rates for evidence of whether these things happened. He shows that as more and more countries liberalized, the level and dynamic behavior of developing-country interest rates converged to industrial-country norms. In the short term, volatility increased in both real and nominal money market interest rates. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads, evidently the most repressed, showed the greatest increase as liberalization progressed - shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Whereas quoted bank spreads in industrial countries contracted somewhat in the late 1990s, spreads in developing countries remained much higher, presumably reflecting both market power and the higher risks of lending in the developing world. There was no clear-cut change in mean rates of inflation, monetary depth, or GDP growth. If anything, there was a small average improvement in inflation, but a decline in monetary depth and economic growth, relative to trends in industrial countries. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore optimal policy under financial liberalization. The author may be contacted atphonohanworldbank.org
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    How Urban Concentration Affects Economic Growth (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Henderson, Vernon How Urban Concentration Affects Economic Growth
    Keywords: Capital ; Consumers ; Costs ; Development ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies Of Scale ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Income ; Industrialization ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Benefits ; Markets ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Telecommunications ; Transactions Costs ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Urban Housing and Land ; Capital ; Consumers ; Costs ; Development ; Economic Efficiency ; Economic Geography ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies Of Scale ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; GDP ; GDP Per Capita ; Goods ; Growth Rate ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Income ; Industrialization ; Inequality ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Benefits ; Markets ; Population Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Social Protections and Labor ; Telecommunications ; Transactions Costs ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Urban Housing and Land
    Abstract: April 2000 - If urban overconcentration really is an issue, it ought to affect economic growth rates in a robust, consistent fashion. And it does. Not only is there an optimal degree of urban concentration that varies with country income, but departures from optimal concentration result in substantial growth losses. Overconcentrated countries can reduce concentration by investing in interregional transport infrastructure - in particular, increasing the density of road networks. Henderson explores the issue of urban overconcentration econometrically, using data from a panel of 80 to 100 countries every 5 years from 1960 to 1995. He finds the following: · At any level of development there is indeed a best degree of national urban concentration. It increases sharply as income rises, up to a per capita income of about
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    Social Transfers and Social Assistance : An Empirical Analysis Using Latvian Household Survey Data (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko Social Transfers and Social Assistance
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Household Budget ; Household Per Capita Income ; Household Survey ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Insurance ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Poor Individuals ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Assessments ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Assistance ; Targeting ; Transfers ; Transfers In Kind ; Transition Economies ; Unemployment ; Cash Transfers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Household Budget ; Household Per Capita Income ; Household Survey ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Insurance ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Poor Individuals ; Poverty ; Poverty Alleviation ; Poverty Assessments ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Line ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Assistance ; Targeting ; Transfers ; Transfers In Kind ; Transition Economies ; Unemployment
    Abstract: April 2000 - In Latvia, only 1.5 percent of households receive social assistance, which for those households represents 20 percent of income. The allocation of social assistance is unequal. Urban households outside the capital (Riga) and those headed by male adults are systematically discriminated against. Because social assistance is locally financed, poor households in different parts of the country are treated unequally. Milanovic assesses the performance of Latvia's system of social transfers, in three ways: First, he analyzes the incidence (who receives transfers) of pensions, family allowances, unemployment benefits, and social assistance. Per capita analysis shows pensions tending to be pro-rich and families allowances pro-poor (a finding typical in poverty analyses). Introducing an equivalence scale alters the results and shows all individual cash transfers performing about the same: mildly pro-poor. Next, he examines the performance of social assistance, which is, by definition, directed to the poor. He shows that Latvia's current system is concentrated - meaning that social assistance is disbursed to few households (only 1.5 percent of all households receive it) but among those that do receive it, it represents a relatively high share (20 percent) of income. Households that are systematically discriminated against in the allocation of social assistance are urban households living outside the capital (Riga) and those headed by male adults. Third, he looks at the regional allocation of social assistance. The results confirm earlier findings of large horizontal inequalities - that people with the same income from different parts of the country are treated unequally, because the existing system is based on local financing of social assistance. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of the Latvia Poverty Assistance Report (February 2000). The author may be contacted at bmilanovicworldbank.org
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    Endogenous Enforcement and Effectiveness of China's Pollution Levy System (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wang, Hua Endogenous Enforcement and Effectiveness of China's Pollution Levy System
    Keywords: Abatement ; Air Pollution ; Economic Development ; Economists ; Emissions ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Performance ; Environmental Protection ; Environmental Quality ; Green Issues ; Income ; Industry ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Pollution ; Pollution Charges ; Poverty ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Standards ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Water ; Water Pollution ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; Abatement ; Air Pollution ; Economic Development ; Economists ; Emissions ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Performance ; Environmental Protection ; Environmental Quality ; Green Issues ; Income ; Industry ; Labor ; Labor Force ; Pollution ; Pollution Charges ; Poverty ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Standards ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Water ; Water Pollution ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry
    Abstract: May 2000 - How well air and water pollution regulation is implemented depends very much on both the level of economic development and actual environmental quality. Pollution pricing is closer to the dictates of environmental economics than China's formal regulatory statutes would suggest - and there is considerable scope for using economic instruments to reduce China's industrial pollution problems. Wang and Wheeler investigate two aspects of China's pollution levy system, which was first implemented about 20 years ago. First, they analyze what determines differences in enforcement of the pollution levy in various urban areas. They find that collection of the otherwise uniform pollution levy is sensitive to differences in economic development and environmental quality. Air and water pollution levies are higher in areas that are heavily polluted. Second, they analyze the impact of pollution charges on industry's environmental performance, in terms of the pollution intensity of process production and the degree of end-of-pipe abatement for both water pollution and air pollution. Econometric analysis shows that plants respond strongly to the levy by either abating air pollution in the production process or providing end-of-pipe treatment for water pollution. This paper - a product of Infrastructure and Environment, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study environmental regulation in developing countries. The authors may be contacted at hwang1worldbank.org or dwheeler1@worldbank.org
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    The Geography of International Investment (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Venables, Anthony The Geography of International Investment
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Geography ; Economic Size ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Costs ; Foreign Direct Investment ; GDP ; Goods ; Income ; Industrial Economies ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Mergers ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Social Protections and Labor ; Theory ; Trade ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transition Economies ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Value ; Variable Costs ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Geography ; Economic Size ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Costs ; Foreign Direct Investment ; GDP ; Goods ; Income ; Industrial Economies ; Inputs ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Mergers ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Social Protections and Labor ; Theory ; Trade ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transition Economies ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Value ; Variable Costs
    Abstract: May 2000 - Multinationals have become increasingly important to the world economy. Overseas production by U.S. affiliates is three times U.S. exports, for example. Who is investing where, for sales where? Much foreign direct investment is between high-income countries, but investment in some developing and transition regions, while still modest, grew rapidly in the 1990s. Adjusting for market size, much investment stays close to home; adjusting for distance, much heads toward the countries with the biggest markets. Foreign direct investment is more geographically concentrated than either exports or production. Thus U.S. affiliate production in Europe is 7 times U.S. exports to Europe; that ratio drops to 4 for all industrial countries and to 1.6 for developing countries. Multinational activity in high-income countries is overwhelmingly horizontal, involving production for sale to the host country market. In developing countries, a greater proportion of multinational activity is vertical, involving manufacturing at intermediate stages of production. Thus only 4 percent of U.S. affiliate production in the European Union is sold back to the United States, whereas for developing countries the figure is 18 percent, rising to 40 percent for Mexico. Similarly, less than 10 percent of Japan's affiliate production in the EU is sold back to Japan, compared with more than 20 percent in developing countries. In models of horizontal activity, the decision to go multinational is a tradeoff between the additional fixed costs involved in setting up a new plant and the savings in variable costs (transport costs and tariffs) on exports. In models of vertical activity, direct investment is motivated by differences in factor costs. Tariffs and transport costs both encourage vertical multinational activity (by magnifying differences in factor prices) and discourage it (by making trade between headquarters and an affiliate more expensive). The major outward investors carry out much horizontal investment in large markets. For U.S. investors, this means Europe, especially the United Kingdom; for Japan and Europe, it means the United States. Most EU investments, however, stay within the EU. The major outward investors carry out much of their vertical investment closer to home: the United States, in Mexico; the EU, in Central and Eastern Europe; Japan, in Asia. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the location of economic activity. Anthony J. Venables may be contacted at a.j.venableslse.ac.uk
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    The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development
    Keywords: Class Polarization ; Cross-Country Data ; Cross-Country Differences ; Cross-Country Income ; Development Outcomes ; Development Successes ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth ; Emerging Markets ; Exogenous Country Characteristics ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Differences ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Middle Class ; Middle Class Consensus ; Political Community ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Political Instability ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Resource Endowments ; Social Conflict ; Class Polarization ; Cross-Country Data ; Cross-Country Differences ; Cross-Country Income ; Development Outcomes ; Development Successes ; Economic Development ; Economic Growth ; Emerging Markets ; Exogenous Country Characteristics ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Differences ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Middle Class ; Middle Class Consensus ; Political Community ; Political Economy ; Political Economy ; Political Instability ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Resource Endowments ; Social Conflict
    Abstract: May 2000 - A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. Modern political economy stresses society's polarization as a determinant of development outcomes. Among the most common forms of social conflict are class polarization and ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus is defined as a high share of income for the middle class and a low degree of ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus distinguishes development successes from failures. A theoretical model shows how groups- distinguished by class or ethnicity - will under-invest in human capital and infrastructure when there is leakage to another group. Easterly links the existence of a middle class consensus to exogenous country characteristics such as resource endowments, along the lines of the provocative thesis of Engerman and Sokoloff 1997 that tropical commodity exporters are more unequal than other societies. Easterly confirms this hypothesis with cross-country data. This makes it possible to use resource endowments as instruments for inequality. A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants of growth. The author may be contacted at weasterlyworldbank.org
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    Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime : An Empirical Note from Mexico (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Giugale, Marcelo Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangements ; Currency Boards ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Economy ; Econometric Evidence ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate Flo Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Regime ; External Shock ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Rate ; Foreign Exchange Rates ; Inflation ; International Financial Integration ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Unions ; Open Capital Accounts ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Structural Reform ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Board ; Currency Board Arrangements ; Currency Boards ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Economy ; Econometric Evidence ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rate Flo Exchange Rate Regime ; Exchange Regime ; External Shock ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Exchange ; Foreign Exchange Rate ; Foreign Exchange Rates ; Inflation ; International Financial Integration ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Unions ; Open Capital Accounts ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Structural Reform
    Abstract: July 2000 - Empirical econometric evidence shows that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes than on their actual performance. Giugale and Korobow report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence-that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock-in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible. This paper-a product of the Mexico Country Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand policy options open to developing countries for handling macroeconomic volatility in a globalized economy. The authors may be contacted at mgiugaleworldbank.org or akorobow@worldbank.org
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    Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy ; Buffer ; Business Cycle ; Central Bank ; Consumption ; Cross-Country Studies ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Current Account ; Current Account Balance ; Current Account Defic Current Account Deficits ; Current Account Position ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Economy ; Emerging Markets ; Explanatory Variables ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Income ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Surplus ; World Economy
    Abstract: July 2000 - In developing countries, increases in current account deficits tend to be associated with a rise in domestic output growth and shocks that increase the terms of trade and cause the real exchange rate to appreciate. Higher savings rates, higher growth rates in industrial economies, and higher international interest rates tend to have the opposite effect. Calderón, Chong, and Loayza examine the empirical links between current account deficits and a broad set of economic variables proposed in the literature. To accomplish this, they complement and extend previous research by using a large, consistent set of macroeconomic data on public and private domestic savings, external savings, and national income variables; focusing on developing economies by drawing on a panel data set for 44 developing countries and annual information for the period 1966-95; adopting a reduced-form approach rather than holding to a particular structural model; distinguishing between within-country and cross-country effects; and employing a class of estimators that controls for the problems of simultaneity and reverse causation. Among their findings: · Current account deficits in developing countries are moderately persistent. · A rise in domestic output growth generates a larger current account deficit. · Increases in savings rates have a positive effect on the current account. · Shocks that increase the terms of trade or cause the real exchange rate to appreciate are linked with higher current account deficits. · Either higher growth rates in industrial economies or higher international interest rates reduce the current account deficit in developing economies. This paper-a product of the Regional Studies Program, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of an effort in the region to understand the determinants of external sustainability. The authors may be contacted at crcntroi.cc.rochester.edu, achong@worldbank.org, or nloayza@condor.bcentral.cl
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    Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Laeven, Luc Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms?
    Keywords: Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets ; Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets
    Abstract: October 2000 - Financial liberalization reduces imperfections in financial markets by reducing the agency costs of financial leverage. Small firms gain most from liberalization, because the favoritism of preferential credit directed to large firms tends to disappear under liberalization. Laeven uses panel data on 394 firms in 13 developing countries for the years 1988–98 to learn whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints on firms. He finds that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before liberalization begins but become less so after liberalization. The financing constraints on large firms, however, are low both before and after liberalization. The initial difference between small and large firms disappears over time. Laeven hypothesizes that financial liberalization has little effect on the financing constraints of large firms because they have better access to preferential directed credit in the period before liberalization.Financial liberalization also reduces imperfections in financial markets, especially the asymmetric information costs of firms’ financial leverage. Countries that liberalize their financial sectors tend to see dramatic improvements in political climate as well. Successful financial liberalization seems to require both the political will and the ability to stop the preferential treatment of well-connected, usually large, firms. This paper—a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to study the benefits and risks of financial liberalization. The author may be contacted at llaevenworldbank.org
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    The Credit Crunch in East Asia : What Can Bank Excess Liquid Assets Tell Us? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Agénor, Pierre-Richard The Credit Crunch in East Asia
    Keywords: Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital ; Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital
    Abstract: November 2000 - A two-step approach is used to assess the extent to which the credit crunch in East Asia was supply- or demand-driven. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Agénor, Aizenman, and Hoffmaister propose a two-step approach for assessing the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis-stricken East Asian countries was a supply- or demand-induced phenomenon. The first step involves estimating a demand function for excess liquid assets held by commercial banks. The second step involves establishing dynamic projections for the periods after the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of an “involuntary” accumulation of excess reserves. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Thai firms (presumably small and medium-size ones) faced binding constraints in getting access to credit markets after the crisis. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute—is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the macroeconomic effects of credit market imperfections. Pierre-Richard Agénor may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org
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    Averting the Old-Age Crisis : Technical Annex (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (156 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Palacios, J. Robert Averting the Old-Age Crisis
    Keywords: Administrative Costs ; Bank ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Income ; Information ; Investment ; Investment Returns ; Labor Force ; Pension ; Pension Fund ; Pension Fund Investment ; Pension Schemes ; Pension Spending ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Sector Development ; Public Pension ; Public Pension Schemes ; Rates Of Return ; Retirement ; Revenues ; Security ; Social Protections and Labor ; Wage ; Wage Growth ; Administrative Costs ; Bank ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Income ; Information ; Investment ; Investment Returns ; Labor Force ; Pension ; Pension Fund ; Pension Fund Investment ; Pension Schemes ; Pension Spending ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Sector Development ; Public Pension ; Public Pension Schemes ; Rates Of Return ; Retirement ; Revenues ; Security ; Social Protections and Labor ; Wage ; Wage Growth
    Abstract: February 1996 - Supporting documentation for the World Bank publication Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (1994). Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth, the publication for which this technical annex provides supporting documentation, is the third in a series of major World Bank Policy Research Reports. Unlike its predecessors, The East Asian Miracle and Adjustment in Africa, it does not concentrate on a specific region but focuses rather on the general topic of income security for old age. More than two years of research were required to gather data, review the theoretical literature, examine empirical evidence, and write the book that represents the Bank's most important study of the issue to date. This annex explains in detail the data sources, concepts, and definitions used in the book and provides additional information. It describes the demographic data used in the report and discusses data about public and privately managed pension schemes around the world (giving specific sources for individual countries). An attempt has been made to cross-reference the data available on ]STARS] diskettes, which can be downloaded and analyzed in most database or statistical software packages. This paper - a product of the Poverty and Human Resources Division, Policy Research Department - provides supporting documentation for the World Bank publication Averting the Old-Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (1994), available from the World Bank bookstore
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    Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Deep Integration, Nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Bilateral Free Trade Agreement ; Competition Laws ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Customs Clearance ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Regulatory Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Suppliers ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Market Access Costs ; Market Segmentation ; Market Segmenting ; Market Segmenting Effect ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Regionalism ; Regulatory Barriers ; Regulatory Stance ; Safety Regulations ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: May 1999 - Preferential trade agreements that are limited to the elimination of tariffs for merchandise trade flows are of limited value at best and may be as easily welfare-reducing as welfare-enhancing. It is important that preferential trade agreements go beyond eliminating tariffs and quotas to eliminating regulatory and red tape costs and opening up service markets to foreign competition. Deep integration-explicit government actions to reduce the market-segmenting effect of domestic regulatory policies through coordination and cooperation-is becoming a major dimension of some regional integration agreements, led by the European Union. Health and safety regulations, competition laws, licensing and certification regimes, and administrative procedures such as customs clearance can affect trade (in ways analogous to nontariff barriers) even though their underlying intent may not be to discriminate against foreign suppliers of goods and services. Whether preferential trade agreements (PTAs) can be justified in a multilateral trading system depends on the extent to which formal intergovernmental agreements are technically necessary to achieve the deep integration needed to make markets more contestable. The more need for formal cooperation, the stronger the case for regional integration. Whether PTAs are justified regionally also depends on whether efforts to reduce market segmentation are applied on a nondiscriminatory basis. If innovations to reduce transaction or market access costs extend to both members and nonmembers of a PTA, regionalism as an instrument of trade and investment becomes more attractive. Using a standard competitive general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy, Hoekman and Konan find that the static welfare impact of a deep free trade agreement is far greater than the impact that can be expected from a classic shallow agreement. Under some scenarios, welfare may increase by more than 10 percent of GDP, compared with close to zero under a shallow agreement. Given Egypt's highly diversified trading patterns, a shallow PTA with the European Union could be merely diversionary, leading to a small decline in welfare. Egypt already has duty-free access to the European Union for manufactures, so the loss in tariff revenues incurred would outweigh any new trade created. Large gains in welfare from the PTA are conditional on eliminating regulatory barriers and red tape-in which case welfare gains may be substantial: 4 to 20 percent growth in real GNP. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze regional integration agreements. The authors may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or konan@hawaii.edu
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    Globalization and National Development at the End of the 20th Century : Tensions and Challenges (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (19 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Solimano, Andrés Globalization and National Development at the End of the 20th Century
    Keywords: Balance Of Payments ; Capital Mobility ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Free Capital ; Global Economy ; Globalization ; Human Development ; Inflation ; Inflations ; International Trade ; Macroeconomic Volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Security ; Wealth Creation ; Balance Of Payments ; Capital Mobility ; Capital Movements ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Fixed Exchange Rates ; Free Capital ; Global Economy ; Globalization ; Human Development ; Inflation ; Inflations ; International Trade ; Macroeconomic Volatility ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Security ; Wealth Creation
    Abstract: June 1999 - Do globalization and national development reinforce each other? Are they mutually compatible? What opportunities for national development does globalization open? What problems does it pose? What is the proper balance between national, regional, and global responses to the challenges posed by globalization? Globalization offers developing countries the opportunities to create wealth through export-led growth, to expand international trade in goods and services, and to gain access to new ideas, technologies, and institutional designs. But globalization also entails problems and tensions that must be appropriately managed. For one thing, global business cycles can contribute greatly to macroeconomic volatility at the national level. The scope and severity of crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997), Russia (1998), and Brazil (1999) suggests the severity of the financial vulnerability developing countries face nowadays. With financial markets so highly integrated, problems are transmitted rapidly from one country to another. The rapid transmission of financial shocks changes levels of confidence and affects exchange rates, interest rates, asset prices, and, ultimately, output and employment-with consequent social effects. Policymakers should also be concerned about how globalization exacerbates job instability and income disparities both within and across countries. Macroeconomic and financial crises, by increasing poverty and social tensions, can be political destabilizing. As the 20th century ends, the resources of Bretton Woods institutions are strained because of the large and complex rescue packages needed to deal with large-scale volatility. Development policy agendas in the era of globalization need to articulate traditional concerns with growth, stability, and social equity with new themes such as transparency and good governance at several levels: national, regional, and global. This paper-a product of the Country Management Unit, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the links between globalization and national development. The author may be contacted at asolimano worldbank.org
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    Income Gains to the Poor from Workfare : Estimates for Argentina's Trabajar Program (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Income Gains to the Poor from Workfare
    Keywords: Communities & Human Settlements ; Counterfactual ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation ; Experimental Design ; Experimental Methods ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Impact Evaluation ; Income ; Income ; Inequality ; Intervention ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Matching Methods ; Outcomes ; Participation ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Measures ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Programs ; Projects ; Reflexive Comparisons ; Research ; Sampling ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Surveys ; Targeting ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Counterfactual ; Economic Theory and Research ; Evaluation ; Experimental Design ; Experimental Methods ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Impact Evaluation ; Income ; Income ; Inequality ; Intervention ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Matching Methods ; Outcomes ; Participation ; Poverty ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Measures ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Programs ; Projects ; Reflexive Comparisons ; Research ; Sampling ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Surveys ; Targeting
    Abstract: July 1999 - A workfare program was introduced in response to high unemployment in Argentina. An ex-post evaluation using matching methods indicates that the program generated sizable net income gains to generally poor participants. Jalan and Ravallion use propensity-score matching methods to estimate the net income gains to families of workers participating in an Argentinian workfare program. The methods they propose are feasible for evaluating safety net interventions in settings in which many other methods are not feasible. The average gain is about half the gross wage. Even allowing for forgone income, the distribution of gains is decidedly pro-poor. More than half the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent of them are in the poorest quintile - reflecting the self-targeting feature of the program design. Average gains for men and women are similar, but gains are higher for younger workers. Women's greater participation would not enhance average income gains, and the distribution of gains would worsen. Greater participation by the young would raise average gains but would also worsen the distribution. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve methods for evaluating the poverty impact of Bank-supported programs. The authors may be contacted at jjalanisid.ac.in or mravallion@worldbank.org
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    Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic Management (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Dinh, T. Hinh Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic Management
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Defic Debt Service ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Defic Fiscal Effort ; Fiscal Policy ; Income Inequalities ; Income Levels ; International Financial Institutions ; Levy ; Long Term Debt ; Macroeconomic Policies ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Solvency ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Budget Defic Debt Service ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Defic Fiscal Effort ; Fiscal Policy ; Income Inequalities ; Income Levels ; International Financial Institutions ; Levy ; Long Term Debt ; Macroeconomic Policies ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Solvency
    Abstract: October 1999 - In a financially integrated world, it is misleading to assess fiscal performance separate from other aspects of economic development. The framework proposed here can help assess fiscal performance over time and across countries and point to a pace of fiscal adjustment consistent with a country's economic and social objectives. Fiscal policy is central to a country's economic and social objectives, from macroeconomic stability to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. But evaluations of a country's fiscal performance, over time or relative to other countries, are often conducted independent of other development objectives, disregarding the links between fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. A budget deficit of 4 percent of GDP, for example, may be acceptable in one country but not in another, because of different initial conditions and policy priorities. In the same country, a level of fiscal deficit may be acceptable one year but not the next, depending on developments and changes in policy objectives. Dinh argues for assessing fiscal performance (1) as part of the entire framework of economic policy, (2) against a policy objective, (3) by taking into account both short- and long-term considerations, and (4) with an eye to the quality of adjustment (whether there are income inequalities or other social issues, for example) as well as its magnitude. The approach he proposes for assessing country fiscal performance requires a minimum of data and takes into account flow and stock variables on internal and external debt. The approach addresses the shortcomings of conventional analysis by incorporating the debt dynamics and other macroeconomic targets of growth, inflation, and external and internal debt. While its theoretical foundation is well known in the literature, this approach has not been adapted for assessing fiscal performance either over time or across countries, and he discusses practical issues arising from this adaptation. Dinh proposes two indicators to measure fiscal adjustment efforts: · Fiscal solvency adjustment, which measures how far additional fiscal efforts must be taken to restore solvency to the fiscal sector. · Fiscal sustainability adjustment, which measures how far additional fiscal efforts must be taken to maintain the ratios of internal and external debt to output. Dinh applies the proposed framework to evaluate recent fiscal performance in three countries - Argentina, India, and Zambia - each with a different income level and located on a different continent. The countries were selected on the basis of recent World Bank economic work using the proposed approach or an equivalent. Dinh finds the proposed approach useful for identifying key fiscal issues, for assessing the adequacy and pace of fiscal adjustment consistent with the overall economic and social objectives, and for highlighting the tradeoffs between policy initiatives. Sound fiscal policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability. When fiscal issues are under control, it is easier to coordinate other policies. When fiscal issues are part of the problem, the tradeoffs between policy outcomes become pronounced, and economic management, including the management of capital flows, becomes much more difficult. This paper is a product of Macroeconomics 1, Africa Technical Families. The author may be contacted at hdinhworldbank.org
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    Border, Border, Wide and Far, How We Wonder What You Are (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wei, Shang-Jin Border, Border, Wide and Far, How We Wonder What You Are
    Keywords: Arbitrage ; Barriers ; Commodity ; Consumer Price Index ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Insurance ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Trade ; Legal Systems ; Local Currencies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Power Parity ; Price ; Price Volatility ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Purchasing Power ; Trade ; Arbitrage ; Barriers ; Commodity ; Consumer Price Index ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Exchange Rate Movements ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Insurance ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Trade ; Legal Systems ; Local Currencies ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Power Parity ; Price ; Price Volatility ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Purchasing Power ; Trade
    Abstract: November 1999 - Crossing national borders adds significantly to price dispersion. This study of prices in Japan and the United States finds that a substantial part of that border effect is attributable to distance, shipping costs, exchange rates, and relative variability in wages. Parsley and Wei exploit three-dimensional panel data on prices for 27 traded goods, over 88 quarters, across 96 cities in Japan and the United States, to answer several questions: · Does the average exchange rate between countries stray further from zero than that between cities within a country? · Is there any tendency for the average exchange rate to move closer to zero over time? · Does the border narrow over time? · Is there evidence linking changes in the so-called border effect - the extra dispersion in prices between cities in different countries beyond what physical distance could explain - with plausible economic explanations, such as exchange rate variability? The authors present evidence that the intranational real exchange rates are substantially less volatile than the comparable distribution of international relative prices. They also show that an equally weighted average of commodity-level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well, suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices. Next they turn to economic explanations for the dynamics of the border effect. Focusing on the dispersion of prices between city pairs, they confirm previous findings that crossing national borders adds significantly to price dispersion. Based on their point estimates, crossing the U.S.-Japan border is equivalent to adding between 2.5 and 13 million miles to the cross-country volatility of relative prices. They infer that distance, exchange rates, shipping costs, and relative variability in wages influence the border effect. After those variables are controlled for, the border effect disappears. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand international capital flows. The authors may be contacted at david.parsleyowen.vanderbilt.edu or swei@worldbank.org
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    The Dynamics of Poverty and the Effectiveness of Poland's Safety Net (1993 96) (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (86 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Okrasa, Wlodzimierz The Dynamics of Poverty and the Effectiveness of Poland's Safety Net (1993 96)
    Keywords: Chronically Poor ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Budget ; Household Income ; Human Development ; Income ; Measures ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Dynamics ; Poverty Index ; Poverty Profile ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Policies ; Social Programs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Temporarily Poor ; Unemployment ; Chronically Poor ; Economic Growth ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Budget ; Household Income ; Human Development ; Income ; Measures ; Poor ; Poor Households ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Dynamics ; Poverty Index ; Poverty Profile ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Savings ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Policies ; Social Programs ; Social Protections and Labor ; Temporarily Poor ; Unemployment
    Abstract: November 1999 - Changes in Poland's family allowances and unemployment benefits have significant but different effects on different groups of households. In deciding on strategies to address long-term poverty, policymakers must take such differences into account. Okrasa analyzes how the incidence of household endowments and the allocation of social benefits affect families' transitions into and out of poverty. Using panel data for 1993-96 from Poland's Household Budget Survey, and a framework based on sample survival analysis techniques, Okrasa evaluates how various policies will affect households with specific characteristics that make them likely to become poor or to move out of poverty under different scenarios (including whether or not they receive a given amount of a particular type of social transfer). He also discusses how nonincome sources of welfare, such as savings, credits, and loans, affect the likelihood that families will become or stop being poor. He concludes that family allowances and unemployment benefits, the two major social programs analyzed, have significant but different effects on different groups of households (characterized in terms of the age, gender, marital status, and educational attainment of the head of household; the size, type, location, and sector of employment of the family or household; and the year in which the household fell into poverty). If the share of family allowances in total household income were reduced by 1 percent, for example, the average length of poverty would be increased by roughly 2 percent. But a 1 percent change in unemployment benefits would yield a 3 percent change in the average duration of poverty. Differences in hazard rates for various subgroups would be even greater. Households in villages were much more likely to fall into poverty than households in cities and large towns, but the poor in towns and cities had more difficulty exiting poverty. There was generally less poverty mobility among households headed by public sector employees than among those headed by employees in the private sector. Families with three or more children and one-parent families (and grandparents with children) faced the greatest risk of being poor; single-person households and childless married couples were the least endangered. Small nuclear families with one or two children and families without children fell between these two extremes. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the dynamics of poverty and the effectiveness of the safety net. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Household Welfare Change during the Transition (RPO 681-21). The author may be contacted at wokrasaworldbank.org
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    Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klein, Michael Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement
    Abstract: November 1999 - Three approaches to regulatory frameworks for financial systems - and a scenario for development of the world financial system that assumes a market solution. In developing the architecture for a financial system, the challenge is to combine deregulation and safety nets against systemic failure with effective prudential regulation and oversight. Klein analyzes three approaches to choosing an adequate regulatory framework for a financial system. · Those most worried about panic and herd behavior tend to favor relatively extensive controls on financial institutions' activities, including controls on interest rates and on the volume and direction of lending. · Those most concerned about moral hazard advocate abolishing controls and safety nets, seeing the solution in stronger market discipline and reduced powers and discretion for regulators. · Mainstream opinion advocates a mix of measures, to both strengthen market discipline and improve regulatory oversight. The approach a country opts for depends on (1) which monetary and exchange rate regime it chooses, (2) whether it is more concerned about moral hazard or about panic and herd behavior, and (3) how the politics of reform shape its solutions. Klein suggests a scenario for development of the global financial system over the next two or three decades that assumes that the final outcome will resemble the market solution - not because that is the optimal policy choice but because of how political weaknesses will interact with advances in settlement technology. In Klein's scenario, the world moves toward a monetary system in which fixed exchange rate systems or de facto currency competition limit the power of central banks. This limits options for discretionary and open-ended liquidity support to help deal with systemic financial crises. The costs of inflexible exchange rates are moderated by new types of wage contracts, using units of account that are correlated with the shocks a particular industry or kind of contract faces - thus maintaining the positive aspects of monetary systems with flexible nominal exchange rates. Mistrust in monetary authorities and the emergence of private settlement systems lead to a return of asset-backed money as the means of payment. The disciplines on financial systems come to resemble somewhat those of historical free banking systems, with financial institutions requiring high levels of equity and payments systems protected only by limited, fully funded safety nets. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand regulatory issues. The author may be contacted at michael.u.kleinsi.shell.com
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  • 44
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    Market Access Advances and Retreats : The Uruguay Round and Beyond (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (80 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Finger, Michael J Market Access Advances and Retreats
    Keywords: Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Products ; Agricultural Trade ; Antidumping ; Antidumping Cases ; Border Protection ; Concessions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Industrial Products ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Law and Development ; Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Quantitative Restrictions ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Rules of Origin ; Tariff ; Tariff Concessions ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariffs ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade Restrictions ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: Uruguay Round negotiations on market access were a success. Tariff cuts covered a larger share of world trade than those of the Kennedy or Tokyo Rounds and will save importers some
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  • 45
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    The EU Factor in the Trade Policies of Central European Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kaminski, Bartlomiej The EU Factor in the Trade Policies of Central European Countries
    Keywords: Applied Tariff ; Autonomy ; Border Protection ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Producers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Trade ; Foreign Trade Policy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Tariff Rates ; Tariffs ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regimes ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Applied Tariff ; Autonomy ; Border Protection ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Producers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Trade ; Foreign Trade Policy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; International Trade Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Tariff ; Tariff Barriers ; Tariff Rates ; Tariffs ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regimes ; Trade and Regional Integration
    Abstract: Despite strong protectionist sentiments, trade regimes have remained open in Central European countries invited to negotiate their accession to the European Union. Regional disciplines (the EU factor), combined with the legacy of low tariffs under GATT commitments, appear to have offset domestic protectionist impulses. - Kaminski examines the development of foreign trade institutions and policies in Central European countries invited to negotiate their accession to the European Union. With the dismantling of state trading, conditions of market access have been dramatically liberalized. However, except for Estonia and, to a lesser extent, the Czech Republic, most Central European countries have followed a policy of bilateral rather than multilateral trade liberalization. The fall in tariff rates on preferential imports has prompted a search for nontariff barriers, but these countries' trade regimes have remained open - which is surprising, considering the strong protectionist sentiments in economic administration. Regional disciplines (the EU factor), combined with the legacy of low tariffs under GATT commitments, appear to have been responsible for this openness. Foreign trade policy has been shaped by tensions between domestic protectionist impulses and pressures from the European Union (and other World Trade Organization members) to improve conditions of market access. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to examine trade and integration issues. The author may be contacted at bkaminskiworldbank.org
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  • 46
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    Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? : An Empirical Investigation (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Detragiache, Enrica Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability?
    Keywords: Asset Portfolio ; Asset Quality ; Bank Asset ; Bank Depos Banking Crises ; Banking Market ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Deposit Insurance ; Depositor ; Depositors ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Liquidity ; Loan ; Monetary Fund ; Moral Hazard ; National Bank ; Private Sector Development ; Asset Portfolio ; Asset Quality ; Bank Asset ; Bank Depos Banking Crises ; Banking Market ; Banking Sector ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Deposit Insurance ; Depositor ; Depositors ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance Law ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Law and Development ; Liquidity ; Loan ; Monetary Fund ; Moral Hazard ; National Bank ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability - the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. - Based on evidence for 61 countries in 1980-97, Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache find that explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability, the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. The adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger the more extensive is the coverage offered to depositors, and where the scheme is funded and run by the government rather than the private sector. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study deposit insurance. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Deposit Insurance: Issues of Principle, Design, and Implementation (RPO 682-90). The authors may be contacted at ademirguckuntworldbank.org or edetragiache@imf.org
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  • 47
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    Is Knowledge Shared within Households? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Is Knowledge Shared within Households?
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Bank ; Brochure ; Budget ; Conflict of Interest ; Earnings ; Education ; Education for All ; Family Member ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Interest ; Interests ; Knowledge ; Law and Development ; Literacy ; Pamphlets ; Primary Education ; Public Goods ; Unemployment ; Wage ; Welfare ; Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Bank ; Brochure ; Budget ; Conflict of Interest ; Earnings ; Education ; Education for All ; Family Member ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Interest ; Interests ; Knowledge ; Law and Development ; Literacy ; Pamphlets ; Primary Education ; Public Goods ; Unemployment ; Wage ; Welfare
    Abstract: December 1999: Yes - and more efficiently by women than by men, according to this analysis of household survey data for Bangladesh. An illiterate adult earns significantly more in the nonfarm economy when living in a household with at least one literate member. According to theory, a member of a collective-action household may or may not share knowledge with others in that household. Shared income gains from shared knowledge may well be offset by a shift in the balance of power within the family. But do literate members of the household share the benefits of literacy with other members of the household in practice? Using household survey data for Bangladesh, Basu, Narayan, and Ravallion find that education has strong external effects on individual earnings. When a range of personal attributes is held constant, an illiterate adult earns significantly more in the nonfarm economy when living in a household with at least one literate member. That is, a literate person is likely to share some of the benefits of his or her literacy with other members of the household. It is better to be an illiterate in a household where someone is literate than in a household of illiterates only. It is widely noted that a literate mother confers greater benefits on her children than a literate father does. But what about differences between male and female recipients of knowledge? The empirical results suggest that women are more efficient recipients, too. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics, and Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the relationship between literacy and balance of power in the household. This paper was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Intrahousehold Decisionmaking, Literacy, and Child Labor (RPO 683-07). The authors may be contacted at kb40cornell.edu, anarayan@worldbank.org, or mravallion@worldbank.org
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    Do More Unequal Countries Redistribute More? : Does the Median Voter Hypothesis Hold? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko Do More Unequal Countries Redistribute More?
    Keywords: Consumption ; Disposable Income ; Economic Mechanism ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Endogenous Growth ; Factor Income ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Growth Rate ; Growth Theories ; Income ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Groups ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mean Income ; Median Voter ; Median Voter Hypothesis ; Personal Income ; Personal Income Taxes ; Political Mechanism ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Choice ; Public Sector Development ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Significant Relationship ; Social Protections and Labor ; Consumption ; Disposable Income ; Economic Mechanism ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Endogenous Growth ; Factor Income ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Growth Rate ; Growth Theories ; Income ; Income ; Income Distribution ; Income Groups ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mean Income ; Median Voter ; Median Voter Hypothesis ; Personal Income ; Personal Income Taxes ; Political Mechanism ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Choice ; Public Sector Development ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Significant Relationship ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: December 1999 - The data strongly support the hypothesis that countries with more unequal distribution of factor income redistribute more in favor of the poor - even when the analysis controls for older people's share in total population (that is, for pension transfers). But the evidence on the median voter hypothesis is inconclusive even if middle-income groups gain more (or lose less) through redistribution in countries where initial (factor) income distribution is more unequal. The median voter hypothesis is important to endogenous growth theories because it provides the political mechanism through which voters in more unequal countries redistribute a greater proportion of income and thus (it is argued), by blunting incentives, reduce the country's growth rate. But the hypothesis was never properly tested because of lack of data on the distribution of (pre-tax and transfer) factor income across households, and hence on the exact amount of gain by the poorest quintile or poorest half. Milanovic tests the hypothesis using 79 observations drawn from household budget surveys from 24 democracies. The data strongly support the hypothesis that countries with more unequal distribution of factor income redistribute more in favor of the poor - even when the analysis controls for the older people's share in total population (that is, for pension transfers). The evidence on the median voter hypothesis is much weaker. Milanovic does find that middle-income groups gain more (or lose less) through redistribution in countries where initial (factor) income distribution is more unequal. This regularity evaporates, however, when pensions are dropped from social transfers and the focus is strictly on the more redistributive social transfers. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the relationship between democracy and inequality. The study was funded in part by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Democracy, Redistribution, and Inequality (RPO 683-01). Also published as “The median voter hypothesis, income inequality and income redistribution: An empirical test with the required data”, European Journal of Political Economy , vol. 16, No. 3, September 2000, pp. 367-410. The author may be contacted at bmilanovicworldbank.org
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  • 49
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    Disinflation and the Supply Side (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Disinflation and the Supply Side
    Keywords: Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth ; Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth
    Abstract: March 2000 - What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs? Agénor and Pizzati study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate. They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible. The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later, a recession sets in, as documented in various studies. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment. This paper is a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute. The authors may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org and lpizzati@worldbank.org
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  • 50
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    Information and Modeling Issues in Designing Water and Sanitation Subsidy Schemes (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (46 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Halpern, Jonathan Information and Modeling Issues in Designing Water and Sanitation Subsidy Schemes
    Keywords: Administrative Procedures ; Consumption ; Consumption ; Consumption Patterns ; Cred Demand ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Empirical Analysis ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Information ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Need ; Options ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Revenue ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Values ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water Use ; Willingness To Pay ; Wtp ; Administrative Procedures ; Consumption ; Consumption ; Consumption Patterns ; Cred Demand ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Empirical Analysis ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Information ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Need ; Options ; Poverty ; Private Sector Development ; Revenue ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Values ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water Use ; Willingness To Pay ; Wtp
    Abstract: May 2000 - Evaluating design alternatives is a first step in introducing optimal water subsidy schemes. The definition of appropriate targeting criteria and subsidy levels needs to be supported by empirical analysis, generally an informationally demanding exercise. An assessment carried out in Panama revealed that targeting individual households would be preferable to geographically based targeting. Empirical analysis also showed that only a small group of very poor households needed a subsidy to pay their water bill. In designing a rational scheme for subsidizing water services, it is important to support the choice of design parameters with empirical analysis that simulates the impact of subsidy options on the target population. Otherwise, there is little guarantee that the subsidy program will meet its objectives. But such analysis is informationally demanding. Ideally, researchers should have access to a single, consistent data set containing household-level information on consumption, willingness to pay, and a range of socioeconomic characteristics. Such a comprehensive data set will rarely exist. G-mez-Lobo, Foster, and Halpern suggest overcoming this data deficiency by collating and imaginatively manipulating different sources of data to generate estimates of the missing variables. The most valuable sources of information, they explain, are likely to be the following: · Customer databases of the water company, which provide robust information on the measured consumption of formal customers but little information on unmeasured consumption, informal customers, willingness to pay, or socioeconomic variables. · General socioeconomic household surveys, which are an excellent source of socioeconomic information but tend to record water expenditure rather than physical consumption. · Willingness-to-pay surveys, which are generally tailored to a specific project, are very flexible, and may be the only source of willingness-to-pay data. However, they are expensive to undertake and the information collected is based on hypothetical rather than real behavior. Where such surveys are unavailable, international benchmark values on willingness to pay may be used. Combining data sets requires some effort and creativity, and creates difficulties of its own. But once a suitable data set has been constructed, a simulation model can be created using simple spreadsheet software. The model used to design Panama's water subsidy proposal addressed these questions: · What are the targeting properties of different eligibility criteria for the subsidy? · How large should the subsidy be? · How much will the subsidy scheme cost, including administrative costs? Armed with the above information, policymakers should be in a position to design a subsidy program that reaches the intended beneficiaries, provides them with the level of financial support that is strictly necessary, meets the overall budget restrictions, and does not waste an excessive amount of funding on administrative costs. This paper - a product of the Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to evaluate and disseminate lessons of experience in designing policies to improve the quality and sustainability of infrastructure services and to enhance the access of the poor to these basic services. The authors may be contacted at vfosterworldbank.org or jhalpern@worldbank.org
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    Leading Indicator Project : Lithuania (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Duval-Hernandez, Robert Leading Indicator Project
    Keywords: Averaging ; Benchmark ; Business Cycles ; Cd ; Cred Economic Activity ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Research ; Economic Statistics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Expectations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forecasting ; Forecasts ; Information Security and Privacy ; Interest Rate ; Knowledge for Development ; Leading Indicators ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Private Sector Development ; Science Education ; Science and Technology Development ; Scientific Research and Science Parks ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Trade ; Trends ; Trough ; Unemployment ; Value ; Variables ; Averaging ; Benchmark ; Business Cycles ; Cd ; Cred Economic Activity ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Research ; Economic Statistics ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Expectations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forecasting ; Forecasts ; Information Security and Privacy ; Interest Rate ; Knowledge for Development ; Leading Indicators ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Private Sector Development ; Science Education ; Science and Technology Development ; Scientific Research and Science Parks ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Trade ; Trends ; Trough ; Unemployment ; Value ; Variables
    Abstract: June 2000 - A method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity (measured as total industrial production), as applied to Lithuania. Everhart and Duval-Hernandez present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the result of the economy's deviations from its long-term trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. The indicator they select for economic activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted, becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the reference series. Variables include economically and statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector, and business survey data. They base selection of the components of the leading indicator on the forecast efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the detrended Index of Industrial Production. They apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for detrending the series. This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally adjusted series into cyclical and trend components. One advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend. The OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth cycles in the economies of its member countries. These exercises have been very effective in their forecasting ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is essential to have an adequate statistical system that provides many economic variables in a precise and timely manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD technique and present an application to a country of the former Soviet Union. This paper - a joint product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Units, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Carribean Regions, and the Mexico Country Management Unit - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to foster the development of macroeconomic monitoring techniques. Authors may be contacted by email at severhartworldbank.org or rduval@worldbank.org
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    Asset Distribution, Inequality, and Growth (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Deininger, Klaus Asset Distribution, Inequality, and Growth
    Keywords: Asset Distribution ; Asset Inequality ; Consumption ; Economic Growth ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Empirical Evidence ; Equity and Development ; Exogenous Shocks ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Growth Literature ; Growth Regressions ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality-Growth Relationship ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Long-Term Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Negative Impact ; Negative Relationship ; Policy Level ; Political Economy ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Property Rights ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Asset Distribution ; Asset Inequality ; Consumption ; Economic Growth ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Empirical Evidence ; Equity and Development ; Exogenous Shocks ; Factor Endowments ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Growth Literature ; Growth Regressions ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality-Growth Relationship ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; Long-Term Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Negative Impact ; Negative Relationship ; Policy Level ; Political Economy ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Property Rights ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: June 2000 - Policymakers addressing the impact of inequality on growth should be more concerned about households' access to assets - and to the opportunities associated with them - than about the distribution of income. Asset inequality - but not income inequality - has a relatively great negative impact on growth and also reduces the effectiveness of educational interventions. With the recent resurgence of interest in equity, inequality, and growth, the possibility of a negative relationship between inequality and economic growth has received renewed interest in the literature. Faced with the prospect that high levels of inequality may persist and give rise to poverty traps, policymakers are paying more attention to the distributional implications of macroeconomic policies. Because high levels of inequality may hurt overall growth, policymakers are exploring measures to promote growth and equity at the same time. How the consequences of inequality are analyzed, along with the possible cures, depends partly on how inequality is measured. Deininger and Olinto use assets (land) rather than income - and a GMM estimator - to examine the robustness of the relationship between inequality and growth that has been observed in the cross-sectional literature but has been drawn into question by recent studies using panel techniques. They find evidence that asset inequality - but not income inequality - has a relatively large negative impact on growth. They also find that a highly unequal distribution of assets reduces the effectiveness of educational interventions. This means that policymakers should be more concerned about households' access to assets, and to the opportunities associated with them, than about the distribution of income. Long-term growth might be improved by measures to prevent large jumps in asset inequality - possibly irreversible asset loss because of exogenous shocks - and by policies to facilitate asset accumulation by the poor. This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the determinants and impact of inequality. The authors may be contacted at kdeiningerworldbank.org or polinto@worldbank.org
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    How Mexico's Financial Crisis Affected Income Distribution (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Salinas, Angel How Mexico's Financial Crisis Affected Income Distribution
    Keywords: Bank ; Calculations ; Contribution ; Current Account ; Current Income ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Equity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Household Income ; Income ; Income ; Income Groups ; Income Sources ; Inequality ; Information ; Investment ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Low-Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Salaries ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Severe Financial Crisis ; Social Protections and Labor ; Wages ; Bank ; Calculations ; Contribution ; Current Account ; Current Income ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Equity ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Literacy ; Household Income ; Income ; Income ; Income Groups ; Income Sources ; Inequality ; Information ; Investment ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Low-Income ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Salaries ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Severe Financial Crisis ; Social Protections and Labor ; Wages
    Abstract: July 2000 - After Mexico's financial crisis in 1994, the distribution of income and labor earnings improved. But financial income and rising labor earnings in higher-income brackets are growing sources of inequality in Mexico. After Mexico's financial crisis in 1994, the distribution of income and labor earnings improved. Did inequality increase during the recession, as one would expect, since the rich have more ways to protect their assets than the poor do? After all, labor is poor people's only asset (the labor-hoarding hypothesis). In principle, one could argue that the richest deciles experienced severe capital losses because of the crisis in 1994-96, and were hurt proportionately more than the poor were. But the facts don't support this hypothesis. As a share of total income, both monetary income (other than wages and salaries) and financial income increased during that period, especially in urban areas. Financial income is a growing source of inequality in Mexico. Mexico's economy had a strong performance in 1997. The aggregate growth rate was about 7 percent, real investment grew 24 percent and exports 17 percent, industrial production increased 9.7 percent, and growth in civil construction (which makes intensive use of less skilled labor) was close to 11 percent. Given those figures, it is not surprising that the distribution of income and labor earnings improved, but the magnitude and quickness of the recovery prompted a close inspection of the mechanisms responsible for it. Lopez-Acevedo and Salinas analyze the decline in income inequality after the crisis, examine income sources that affect the level of inequality, and investigate the forces that drive inequality in Mexico. They find that in 1997 the crisis had hurt the income share of the top decile of the population mainly by reducing its share of labor earnings. Especially affected were highly skilled workers in financial services and nontradables. Results from 1998 suggest that the labor earnings of those workers recovered and in fact increased. Indeed, labor earnings are a growing source of income inequality. This paper-a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and Mexico Country Office, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of the Bank's study of earnings inequality after Mexico's economic and educational reforms. The authors may be contacted at gacevedoworldbank.org or asalinas@worldbank.org
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    The Dynamics of Poverty : Why Some People Escape from Poverty and Others Don't?An African Case Study (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kanbur, Ravi The Dynamics of Poverty
    Keywords: Chronically Poor ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Debt Markets ; Economic Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Size ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Household Income ; Household Size ; Household Welfare ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Human Capital ; Incidence Of Poverty ; Income ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; New Poor ; Nonfarm Income ; Old Age ; Poor People ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Incidence ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Targeting ; Temporarily Poor ; Transfers ; Chronically Poor ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Debt Markets ; Economic Policies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Size ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Household Income ; Household Size ; Household Welfare ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Human Capital ; Incidence Of Poverty ; Income ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; New Poor ; Nonfarm Income ; Old Age ; Poor People ; Poverty ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Incidence ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Targeting ; Temporarily Poor ; Transfers
    Abstract: August 1995 - In urban areas of Côte d'Ivoire, human capital is the endowment that best explains welfare changes over time. In rural areas, physical capital - especially the amount of land and farm equipment owned - matters most. Empirical investigations of poverty in developing countries tend to focus on the incidence of poverty at a particular point in time. If the incidence of poverty increases, however, there is no information about how many new poor have joined the existing poor and how many people have escaped poverty. Yet this distinction is of crucial policy importance. The chronically poor may need programs to enhance their human and physical capital endowments. Invalids and the very old may need permanent (targeted) transfers. The temporarily poor, on the other hand, may best be helped with programs that complement their own resources and help them bridge a difficult period. Results from analyses of panel surveys show significant mobility into and out of poverty and reveal a dynamism of the poor that policy should stimulate. Understanding what separates chronic from temporary poverty requires knowing which characteristics differentiate those who escape poverty from those who don't. In earlier work, Grootaert, Kanbur, and Oh found that region of residence and socioeconomic status were important factors. In this paper they investigate the role of other household characteristics, especially such asset endowments as human and physical capital, in the case of Côte d'Ivoire. In urban areas of Côte d'Ivoire, human capital is the most important endowment explaining welfare changes over time. Households with well-educated members suffered less loss of welfare than other households. What seems to have mattered, though, is the skills learned through education, not the diplomas obtained. Diplomas may even have worked against some households in having oriented workers too much toward a formal labor market in a time when employment growth came almost entirely from small enterprises. In rural areas, physical capital - especially the amount of land and farm equipment owned - mattered most. Smallholders were more likely to suffer welfare declines. Households with diversified sources of income managed better, especially if they had an important source of nonfarm income. In both rural and urban areas, larger households suffered greater declines in welfare and households that got larger were unable to increase income enough to maintain their former welfare level. Households whose heads worked in the public sector maintained welfare better than other households, a finding that confirms earlier observations. The results also suggest that government policies toward certain regions or types of household can outweigh the effects of household endownments. Surprisingly, migrant non-Ivorian households tended to be better at preventing welfare losses than Ivorian households, while households headed by women did better than those headed by men (after controlling for differences in or changes in endowment). The implications for policymakers? First, education is associated with higher welfare levels and helps people cope better with economic decline. Second, targeting the social safety net to larger households - possibly through the schools, to reach children - is justified in periods of decline. Third, smallholders might be targeted in rural areas, and ways found to encourage diversification of income there. This paper - a joint product of the Social Policy and Resettlement Division, Environment Department, and the Africa Regional Office, Office of the Chief Economist - is the result of a research project on The Dynamics of Poverty: Why Some People Escape Poverty and Others Don't, A Panel Analysis for Côte d'Ivoire (RPO 678-70)
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    Africa's Growth Tragedy : A Retrospective, 1960 - 89 (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Levine, Ross Africa's Growth Tragedy
    Keywords: Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Black Market ; Business Cycle ; Country Regressions ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Attainment ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Sector ; Financial Systems ; Growth ; Growth Performance ; Growth Rate ; Growth Rates ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Long-Run Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Nutrition ; Per Capita Income ; Policy Change ; Policy Research ; Political Instability ; Political Stability ; Poor Countries ; Poor Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Pro-Poor Growth
    Abstract: August 1995 - Problems associated with Sub-Saharan Africa's slow growth are low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially. But if neighboring countries adopt a policy change together, the effects on growth are more than double what they would have been if one country had acted alone. Africa's economic history since 1960 fits the classical definition of tragedy: potential unfulfilled, with disastrous consequences. Easterly and Levine use one methodology - cross-country regressions - to account for Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance over the past 30 years and to suggest policies to promote growth over the next 30 years. They statistically quantify the relationship between long-run growth and a wider array of factors than any previous study. They consider such standard variables as initial income to capture convergence effects, schooling, political stability, and indicators of monetary, fiscal, trade, exchange rate, and financial sector policies. They also consider such new measures as infrastructure development, cultural diversity, and economic spillovers from neighbors' growth. Their analysis: ° Improves substantially on past attempts to account for the growth experience of Sub-Saharan African countries. ° Shows that low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure are associated with slow growth. ° Finds that Africa's ethnic diversity tends to slow growth and reduce the likelihood of adopting good policies. ° Identifies spillovers of growth performance between neighboring countries. The spillover effects of growth have implications for policy strategy. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially, but if neighboring countries act together, the effects on growth are much greater. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of neighbors' adopting a policy change is 2.2 times greater than if a single country acted alone. This paper - a joint product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division and the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the link between policies and growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Patterns of Growth (RPO 678-26)
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    Are the Poor Less Well-Insured? : Evidence on Vulnerability to Income Risk in Rural China (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Are the Poor Less Well-Insured?
    Keywords: 1997 ; China ; Consumption ; Consumption ; Current Consumption ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Size ; Households ; Income ; Income ; Income Risk ; Income Shock ; Inequality ; Insurance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Martin ; Poor ; Poor Areas ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Vulnerability ; Wealth Groups ; 1997 ; China ; Consumption ; Consumption ; Current Consumption ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Size ; Households ; Income ; Income ; Income Risk ; Income Shock ; Inequality ; Insurance ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Martin ; Poor ; Poor Areas ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Vulnerability ; Wealth Groups
    Abstract: December 1997 - In rural China, those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well-insured, with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption. By contrast, consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock. Jalan and Ravallion test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural China. They estimate the risk insurance models by Generalized Method of Moments, treating income and household size as endogenous. Insurance exists for all wealth groups, although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected. Those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well-insured, with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption. By contrast, consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock. The extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand private insurance arrangements in poor rural economies. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Dynamics of Poverty in Rural China (RPO 678-69)
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    Subjective Economic Welfare (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (43 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Subjective Economic Welfare
    Keywords: Bank ; Calculation ; Consumer ; Consumers ; Demand ; Demands ; Economic Theory and Research ; Family Allowances ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Incomes ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Information ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Pensioner ; Population Policies ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Reduction ; Property ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Spending ; Unemployment ; Welfare ; Bank ; Calculation ; Consumer ; Consumers ; Demand ; Demands ; Economic Theory and Research ; Family Allowances ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Incomes ; Income ; Incomes ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Information ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Pensioner ; Population Policies ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Reduction ; Property ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Spending ; Unemployment ; Welfare
    Abstract: April 1999 - As conventionally measured, current household income relative to a poverty line can only partially explain how Russian adults perceive their economic welfare. Other factors include past incomes, individual incomes, household consumption, current unemployment, risk of unemployment, health status, education, and relative income in the area of residence. Paradoxically, when economists analyze a policy's impact on welfare they typically assume that people are the best judges of their own welfare, yet resist directly asking them if they are better off. Early ideas of utility were explicitly subjective, but modern economists generally ignore people's expressed views about their own welfare. Even using a broad set of conventional socioeconomic data may not reflect well people's subjective perceptions of their poverty. Ravallion and Lokshin examine the determinants of subjective economic welfare in Russia, including its relationship to conventional objective indicators. For data on subjective perceptions, they use survey responses in which respondents rate their level of welfare from poor to rich on a nine-point ladder. As an objective indicator of economic welfare, they use the most common poverty indicator in Russia today, in which household incomes are deflated by household-specific poverty lines. They find that Russian adults with higher family income per equivalent adult are less likely to place themselves on the lowest rungs of the subjective ladder and more likely to put themselves on the upper rungs. But current household income does not explain well self-reported assessments of whether someone is poor or rich. Expanding the set of variables to include incomes at different dates, expenditures, educational attainment, health status, employment, and average income in the area of residence doubles explanatory power. Healthier and better educated adults with jobs perceive themselves to be better off, controlling for income. The unemployed view their welfare as lower, even with full income replacement. Individual income matters independent of per capita household income. Relative income also matters. Living in a richer area lowers perceived economic welfare, controlling for income and other factors. This paper-a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to better understand the relationship between objective and subjective economic welfare. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Policies for Poor Areas (RPO 681-39). The authors may be contacted at mravallionworldbank.org or mlokshin@worldbank.org
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    Can Africa Export Manufactures? : The Role of Endowment, Exchange Rates, and Transaction Costs (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (23 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Elbadawi, A. Ibrahim Can Africa Export Manufactures?
    Keywords: Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Comparative Advantages ; Competitiveness ; Costs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Human Capital ; Income Elasticity Of Demand ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Taxation ; Taxes ; Theory ; Trade ; Variables ; Capital Markets ; Comparative Advantage ; Comparative Advantages ; Competitiveness ; Costs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exports ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Human Capital ; Income Elasticity Of Demand ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Taxation ; Taxes ; Theory ; Trade ; Variables
    Abstract: May 1999 - Africa's poor performance in manufactured exports in the 1990s (relative to East Asia) appears to be largely the result of bad policies-especially policies that affect transaction costs. Elbadawi analyzes the determinants of manufactured exports in Africa and other developing countries, guided by three pivotal views on Sub-Saharan Africa's (Africa's) prospects in manufactured exports: ° Adrian Woods holds that Africa cannot have comparative advantage in exports of labor-intensive manufactures (even if broadly defined to include raw material processing) because its natural resources endowment is greater than its human resources endowment (endowment thesis). ° Paul Collier argues that, for most of Africa, unusually high (policy-induced) transaction costs are the main source of Africa's comparative disadvantage in manufactured exports (transaction thesis). ° A third approach (Elbadawi and Helleiner) emphasizes the importance of stable, competitive real exchange rates for profitability of exports in low-income countries (exchange rate-led strategy). Elbadawi tests the implications of these three views with an empirical model of manufactured export performance (manufactured exports' share of GDP), using a panel of 41 countries for 1980-95. His findings: ° Corroborate the predictions of the transaction thesis, in that transaction costs are major determinants of manufactures exports. Investing in reducing these costs generates the highest payoff for export capacity. ° Lend support for the exchange rate-led strategy. After controlling for other factors, ratios of natural resources per worker were not robustly associated with export performance across countries, but this cannot be taken as formal rejection of the endowment thesis - unless one is prepared to assume that manufactured exports' share of GDP was highly correlated with ratios of manufactured to aggregate (or primary) exports. But this is not unlikely. This paper-a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to research manufactures exports' competitiveness. The author may be contacted at ielbadawiworldbank.org
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    Social Exclusion and Land Administration in Orissa, India (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (83 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mearns, Robin Social Exclusion and Land Administration in Orissa, India
    Keywords: Access To Land ; Charges ; Common Property Resource Development ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Contracts ; Fees ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forestry ; Grants ; Income ; Institutional Analysis ; Institutional Reform ; Institutional Reforms ; Land ; Land Tenure ; Land Use ; Land Use and Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Public ; Public Sector Management and Reform ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Revenue ; Revenue Collection ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Social Exclusion ; State Governments ; States ; Subnational Governance ; Urban Areas ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Urban Governance and Management ; Access To Land ; Charges ; Common Property Resource Development ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Contracts ; Fees ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Forestry ; Grants ; Income ; Institutional Analysis ; Institutional Reform ; Institutional Reforms ; Land ; Land Tenure ; Land Use ; Land Use and Policies ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Public ; Public Sector Management and Reform ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Revenue ; Revenue Collection ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction ; Social Exclusion ; State Governments ; States ; Subnational Governance ; Urban Areas ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Urban Governance and Management
    Abstract: May 1999 - Which factors prevent the rural poor and other socially excluded groups from having access to land in Orissa, India? The authors report on the first empirical study of its kind to examine - from the perspective of transaction costs - factors that constrain access to land for the rural poor and other socially excluded groups in India. They find that: -Land reform has reduced large landholdings since the 1950s. Medium size farms have gained most. Formidable obstacles still prevent the poor from gaining access to land. -The complexity of land revenue administration in Orissa is partly the legacy of distinctly different systems, which produced more or less complete and accurate land records. These not-so-distant historical records can be important in resolving contemporary land disputes. -Orissa tried legally to abolish land-leasing. Concealed tenancy persisted, with tenants having little protection under the law. -Women's access to and control over land, and their bargaining power with their husbands about land, may be enhanced through joint land titling, a principle yet to be realized in Orissa. -Land administration is viewed as a burden on the state rather than a service, and land records and registration systems are not coordinated. Doing so will improve rights for the poor and reduce transaction costs - but only if the system is transparent and the powerful do not retain the leverage over settlement officers that has allowed land grabs. Land in Orissa may be purchased, inherited, rented (leased), or - in the case of public land and the commons - encroached upon. Each type of transaction - and the State's response, through land law and administration - has implications for poor people's access to land. The authors find that: -Land markets are thin and transaction costs are high, limiting the amount of agricultural land that changes hands. -The fragmentation of landholdings into tiny, scattered plots is a brake on agricultural productivity, but efforts to consolidate land may discriminate against the rural poor. Reducing transaction costs in land markets will help. - Protecting the rural poor's rights of access to common land requires raising public awareness and access to information. -Liberalizing land-lease markets for the rural poor will help, but only if the poor are ensured access to institutional credit. This paper - a product of the Rural Development Sector Unit, South Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to promote access to land and to foster more demand-driven and socially inclusive institutions in rural development. Robin Mearns may be contacted at rmearnsworldbank.org
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    Quantifying the Fiscal Effects of Trade Reform (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (58 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Devarajan, Shantayanan Quantifying the Fiscal Effects of Trade Reform
    Keywords: Consumers, demand, elasticity, elasticity of substitution, equilibrium, exports, goods, income, open economy, outcomes, prices, revenue, taxation, taxes, total revenue, Trade, trade balance, trade liberalization, utility, welfare ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Consumers, demand, elasticity, elasticity of substitution, equilibrium, exports, goods, income, open economy, outcomes, prices, revenue, taxation, taxes, total revenue, Trade, trade balance, trade liberalization, utility, welfare ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Policy ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning
    Abstract: August 1999 - A general equilibrium tax model estimated for 60 countries provides a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of trade reform. Using a tax model of an open economy, Devarajan, Go, and Li provide a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of trade reform. Both the direction and the magnitude of the fiscal consequences of trade reform depend on the elasticities of substitution and transformation between foreign and domestic goods, so they provide empirical estimates of those elasticities. They also discuss the implications of their analysis for public revenue. In general, they find that it matters what the values of the two elasticities are relative to each other. If only one of the elasticities is low (close to zero), revenue will drop unequivocally as a result of tariff reform, reaching close to the maximum drop whether or not the other elasticity is high. For imports to grow and tariff collection to compensate for the tax cut, the import elasticity has to be high. Because of the balance of trade constraint, however, imports cannot substitute for domestic goods unless supply is able to switch toward exports. Hence, the export transformation elasticity has to be high as well. As substitution possibilities between foreign and domestic goods increase, a tariff reform can theoretically be self-financing. But if the elasticities are less than large, tax revenue will fall with tariff reduction and further fiscal adjustments will be necessary. Devarajan, Go, and Li provide empirical estimates of the possible range of values for the elasticities of about 60 countries, using various approaches. The elasticities range from 0 to only 3 in most cases - nowhere near the point at which tariff reform can be self-financing. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to develop and apply tools to analyze fiscal reform. The authors may be contacted at sdevarajanworldbank.org, dgo@worldbank.org
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    Social Capital and the State : Complementarity and Substitution (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (60 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Narayan, Deepa Social Capital and the State
    Keywords: Civil Society ; Civil Society Organizations ; Community ; Community Development and Empowerment ; Corruption ; Disability ; Economic Development ; Education ; Education and Society ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Full Participation ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Development ; Income ; Indicators ; Institutions ; National Governance ; Participation ; Policy Implications ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Service ; Service Delivery ; Social Activities ; Social Capital ; Social Cohesion ; Social Development ; Social Development ; Social Groups ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Social Justice ; Social Protections and Labor ; Civil Society ; Civil Society Organizations ; Community ; Community Development and Empowerment ; Corruption ; Disability ; Economic Development ; Education ; Education and Society ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Full Participation ; Governance ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Human Development ; Income ; Indicators ; Institutions ; National Governance ; Participation ; Policy Implications ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Service ; Service Delivery ; Social Activities ; Social Capital ; Social Cohesion ; Social Development ; Social Development ; Social Groups ; Social Inclusion and Institutions ; Social Justice ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: August 1999 - Whatever their nature, interventions to reduce poverty should be designed not only to have an immediate impact on poverty, but also to foster a rich network of cross-cutting ties within society and between society's formal and informal institutions. Using the lens of social capital - especially bridging or cross-cutting ties that cut across social groups and between social groups and government - provides new insights into policy design. Solidarity within social groups creates ties (bonding social capital) that bring people and resources together. In unequal societies, ties that cut across groups (bridging social capital) are essential for social cohesion and for poverty reduction. The nature of interaction between state and society is characterized as complementarity and substitution. When states are functional, the informal and formal work well together - for example, government support for community-based development. When states become dysfunctional, the informal institutions become a substitute and are reduced to serving a defensive or survival function. To move toward economic and social well-being, states must support inclusive development. Investments in the organizational capacity of the poor are critical. Interventions are also required to foster bridging ties across social groups - ethnic, religious, caste, or racial groups. Such interventions can stem from the state, private sector, or civil society and include: ° Changes in rules to include groups previously excluded from formal systems of finance, education, and governance, at all levels. ° Political pluralism and citizenship rights. ° Fairness before the law for all social groups. ° Availability of public spaces that bring social groups together. ° Infrastructure that eases communication. ° Education, media, and public information policies that reinforce norms and values of tolerance and diversity. This paper - a product of the Poverty Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network - is part of a larger effort in the network to understand the role of social capital. The author may be contacted at dnarayanworldbank.org
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    Does Corruption Relieve Foreign Investors of the Burden of Taxes and Capital Controls? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (18 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Wei, Shang-Jin Does Corruption Relieve Foreign Investors of the Burden of Taxes and Capital Controls?
    Keywords: Capital Account ; Capital Control ; Capital Controls ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Firms ; Foreign Investment ; Foreign Investors ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; International Investors ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Price ; Private Sector Development ; Public Policy ; Share ; Tax ; Tax Rate ; Tax Rates ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Capital Account ; Capital Control ; Capital Controls ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Firms ; Foreign Investment ; Foreign Investors ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; International Investors ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Price ; Private Sector Development ; Public Policy ; Share ; Tax ; Tax Rate ; Tax Rates ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes
    Abstract: October 1999 - Other things being equal, countries with higher tax rates, more corruption, or more restrictions on capital account transactions attract less foreign investment. Taxes and capital controls hinder foreign investment, and bureaucratic corruption adds to those burdens rather than reducing them. In a sample of 14 source countries making bilateral investments in 45 host countries, Wei finds that taxes, capital controls, and corruption all have large, statistically significant negative effects on foreign investment. Moreover, there is no robust support in the data for the efficient grease hypothesis - that corruption helps attract foreign investment by reducing firms' tax burden and the irritant of capital controls. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study effective anticorruption strategies. It will appear as a chapter in a book on taxation and foreign direct investment edited by James Hines Jr. and to be published by the University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research. The author may be contacted at sweiworldbank.org
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  • 63
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    The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Martin, Will The Effect of the United States' Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam
    Keywords: Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness and Markets ; Agricultural Commodities ; Apparel ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Export Competitiveness ; Exporters ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Free Trade ; General Equilibrium Model ; High Tariffs ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Metal Products ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Tariff ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Rates ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Patterns ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: November 1999 - If the United States grants Vietnam most favored nation status, both countries would benefit. Vietnamese exports to the United States would more than double, and Vietnam would gain substantial welfare benefits from improved market access and increased availability of imports. For the United States, lowering the current high tariffs against Vietnam would improve welfare by reducing costly diversion away from Vietnamese products. Since the U.S. embargo on trade with Vietnam was lifted in 1994, exports from Vietnam to the United States have risen dramatically. However, Vietnam remains one of the few countries to which the United States has not yet granted most favored nation (MFN) status. The general tariff rates that the United States imposes average 35 percent compared with 4.9 percent for the MFN rate. Granting MFN status to Vietnam would improve its terms of trade and help improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the country. Better access to the U.S. market would increase the volume of Vietnamese exports to the United States and the prices received for them while also reducing their costs to U.S. users. Fukase and Martin use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the effects of reducing U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports from general rates to MFN rates. They estimate tariff changes using the U.S. tariff schedule for 1997 weighted by Vietnam's exports to the United States. The results suggest that after a change to MFN status for Vietnam, its exports to the United States would more than double, from the 1996 baseline of
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  • 64
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    What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices
    Abstract: Most researchers focus on the political economy (interest group pressures) approach to analyzing why customs unions are formed, but terms-of-trade effects were also important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. - The theoretical literature on trade follows two different approaches to explaining the endogenous formation of customs unions: (1) The terms-of-trade approach, in which integrating partners are willing to exploit terms-of-trade effects. Using the terms-of-trade approach, one concludes that tariffs on imports from the rest of the world should increase after the formation of a regional bloc, because the market power of the region increases and terms-of-trade externalities can be internalized in the custom union's common external tariff. As the union forms, the domestic market gets larger and members' international market power increases. (2) The interest group pressures (political economy) approach, in which, for example, the customs union may offer the potential for exchanging markets or protection within the enlarged market. Using this approach, one would usually conclude that tariffs for the rest of the world decline after the custom union's formation - a rationale related to free-rider effects in larger lobbying groups. It is important to recognize the forces behind the formation of customs unions. Most researchers have focused on the second approach and neglected terms of trade as a possible explanatory variable. Both rationales explain a significant share of tariff information. Results, write Olarreaga, Soloaga, and Winters, suggest that both forces were important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade effects account for between 6 percent and 28 percent of the explained variation in the structure of protection. There is also evidence that the terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the political economy of trade protection. Marcelo Olarreaga may be contacted at molarreagaworldbank.org
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    A Review of the Role and Impact of Export Processing Zones (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (114 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Madani, Dorsati A Review of the Role and Impact of Export Processing Zones
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Goods ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Issues ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Imports ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investments ; Knowledge ; Labor ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policy Instruments ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Revenue ; Social Protections and Labor ; Subsidies ; Technology ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Goods ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Issues ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Imports ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investments ; Knowledge ; Labor ; Labor Markets ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policy Instruments ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Revenue ; Social Protections and Labor ; Subsidies ; Technology ; Trade ; Trade Policy ; Unemployment ; Wages
    Abstract: As instruments for encouraging economic development, export processing zones have only limited usefulness. A better policy choice is general liberalization of a country's economy. - Traditional export processing zones are fenced-in industrial estates specializing in manufacturing for exports. Modern ones have more flexible rules, such as permitting more liberal domestic sales. They provide a free-trade and liberal regulatory environment for the firms involved. Their primary goals: to provide foreign exchange earnings by promoting nontraditional exports, to provide jobs and create income, and to attract foreign direct investment and attendant technology transfer and knowledge spillover. Domestic, international, or joint venture firms operating in export processing zones typically benefit from reduced red tape, flexible labor laws, generous long-term tax holidays and concessions, above-average communications services and infrastructure (and often subsidized utilities and rental rates), and unlimited duty-free imports of raw and intermediate inputs and capital goods needed for production. In this review of experience, Madani concludes that export processing zones have limited applications; the better policy choice is to liberalize a country's entire economy. Under certain conditions - including appropriate setup and good management - export processing zones can play a dynamic role in a country's development, but only as a transitional step in an integrated movement toward general liberalization of the economy (with revisions as national economic conditions change). The World Bank, writes Madani, should be cautious about supporting export processing zone projects, doing so only on a case-by-case basis, only with expert guidance, and only as part of a general reform package. It should not support isolated export processing zone projects in unreformed or postreform economies (in the last case they might encourage backsliding on trade policy). In general, if a policy is good for the economy as a whole, it is likely to be good for an export processing zone. Sound policy will encourage: · Sound, stable monetary and fiscal policies, clear private property and investment laws, and a business-friendly economic environment. · Moderate, simplified (but not overfriendly) corporate tax schedules, and generally liberal tariffs and other trade taxes. · Private development and management of export processing zones and their infrastructure and unsubsidized utilities. · Labor laws that are business-friendly but do not abuse workers' safety and labor rights. · A better understanding of the impact of industrial refuse on the quality of air, soil, water, and human health. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the impact of trade policy and trade policy tools on development. The author may be contacted at dmadaniworldbank.org
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    True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993 : First Calculations, Based on Household Surveys Alone (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (70 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Milanovic, Branko True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993
    Keywords: Consumption ; Economic Theory ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Growth Models ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Income ; Income Differences ; Income Distribution ; Income Distribution Data ; Income Inequality ; Increasing Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mean Incomes ; Median Voter ; Median Voter Hypothesis ; Personal Income ; Political Economy ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Power Parity ; Private Sector Development ; Rising Inequality ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor ; Consumption ; Economic Theory ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Growth Models ; Health Systems Development and Reform ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Surveys ; Income ; Income ; Income Differences ; Income Distribution ; Income Distribution Data ; Income Inequality ; Increasing Inequality ; Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mean Incomes ; Median Voter ; Median Voter Hypothesis ; Personal Income ; Political Economy ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Impact Evaluation ; Poverty Reduction ; Power Parity ; Private Sector Development ; Rising Inequality ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Inequality in world income is very high, according to household surveys, more because of differences between mean country incomes than because of inequality within countries. World inequality increased between 1988 and 1993, driven by slower growth in rural per capita incomes in populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, and India) than in large, rich OECD countries, and by increasing income differences between urban China on the one hand and rural China and rural India on the other. - Milanovic derives the distribution of individuals' income or expenditures for two years, 1988 and 1993. His is the first paper to calculate world distribution for individuals based entirely on data from household surveys. The data, from 91 countries, are adjusted for differences in purchasing power parity between the countries. Measured by the Gini index, inequality increased from an already high 63 in 1988 to 66 in 1993. This increase was driven more by rising differences in mean incomes between countries than by rising inequalities within countries. Contributing most to the inequality were rising urban-rural differences in China and the slower growth of rural purchasing-power-adjusted incomes in South Asia than in several large developed market economies. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study inequality and poverty in the world. Also published in The Economic Journal, January 2002 pp. 51-92 The author may be contacted at bmilanovicworldbank.org
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    Regional Integration Agreements : A Force for Convergence or Divergence? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Venables, Anthony Regional Integration Agreements
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Consumers ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Development Economics ; Economic Integration ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income ; Income Levels ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Outcomes ; Per Capita Income ; Per Capita Incomes ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Theory ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Value ; Value Added ; Welfare ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Consumers ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Development Economics ; Economic Integration ; Economic Performance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Income ; Income ; Income Levels ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Outcomes ; Per Capita Income ; Per Capita Incomes ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Theory ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Value ; Value Added ; Welfare
    Abstract: December 1999 - Developing countries may be better served by north-south than by south-south free trade agreements. Free trade agreements between low-income countries tend to lead to divergence in member country incomes, while agreements between high-income countries tend to lead to convergence. Venables examines how benefits - and costs - of a free trade area are divided among member countries. Outcomes depend on the member countries' comparative advantage, relative to one another and to the rest of the world. Venables finds that free trade agreements between low-income countries tend to lead to divergence in member country incomes, while agreements between high-income countries tend to lead to convergence. Changes induced by comparative advantage may be amplified by the effects of agglomeration. The results suggest that developing countries may be better served by north-south than by south-south free trade agreements, because north-south agreements increase their prospects for convergence with high-income members of the free trade area. In north-south free trade agreements, additional forces are likely to operate. The agreement may be used, for example, as a commitment mechanism to lock in economic reforms (as happened in Mexico with the North American Free Trade Agreement and in Eastern European countries with the European Union). A free trade agreement may also - through its effect on trade and through foreign direct investment - promote technology transfer to lower-income members. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of regional integration. The author may be contacted at avenablesworldbank.org
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    International Contagion : Implications for Policy (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Majnoni, Giovanni International Contagion
    Keywords: Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Crises ; Financial Fragility ; Foreign Interest ; Guarantees ; Interest Rates ; International Financial Contagion ; International Investors ; Liability ; Liquidity ; Market ; Maturity ; Options ; Policy Responses ; Private Sector Development ; Short-Term Debt ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Contagion ; Financial Crises ; Financial Fragility ; Foreign Interest ; Guarantees ; Interest Rates ; International Financial Contagion ; International Investors ; Liability ; Liquidity ; Market ; Maturity ; Options ; Policy Responses ; Private Sector Development ; Short-Term Debt
    Abstract: March 2000 - What can the international community do to prevent financial contagion? Chang and Majnoni try to identify and evaluate the public policy implications of financial contagion on the basis of a very simple model of financial crises. In this model, financial contagion can be driven by a combination of fundamentals and by self-fulfilling market expectations. The model allows the authors to identify different notions of contagion, especially the distinction between monsoonal effects, spillovers, and switchers between equilibria. They discuss both domestic and international policy options. Domestic policies, they say, should be aimed at reducing financial fragility - that is, reducing unnecessary short-term debt commitments. With explicit commitments, the maturity of external debts should be lengthened. With implicit commitments, such as private liability guarantees, they emphasize limiting or eliminating such guarantees, to improve an economy's international liquidity and reduce its exposure to contagion. Internationally, they stress the need for improving financial standards, which makes it easier to assess when a country is subject to different kinds of contagion. The effectiveness of international rescue packages depends on the kind of contagion to which a country is exposed. Implications: The international community should help those countries that are already helping themselves. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants and policy implications of international financial contagion. The author Giovanni Majnoni may be contacted at gmajnoniworldbank.org
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    How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be? : A Monetary Programming Approach (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Beckerman, Paul How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?
    Keywords: Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks ; Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks
    Abstract: March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckermanworldbank.org
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    The Buenos Aires Water Concession (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (72 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Alcázar, Lorena The Buenos Aires Water Concession
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Decision Making ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Industry ; Information ; Information Asymmetries ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Interest ; Investment ; Marginal Cost ; Outcomes ; Perverse Incentives ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Regulation ; Revenues ; Supply ; Taking ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water and Industry ; Welfare Effects ; Debt Markets ; Decision Making ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Industry ; Information ; Information Asymmetries ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Interest ; Investment ; Marginal Cost ; Outcomes ; Perverse Incentives ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Regulation ; Revenues ; Supply ; Taking ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water and Industry ; Welfare Effects
    Abstract: April 2000 - Transparent, rule-based decisionmaking is important to maintaining public trust in regulated infrastructure. The Buenos Aires water and sanitation concession led to remarkable improvements in delivery and coverage of services and to lower prices for consumers. But a poor information base, lack of transparency in regulatory decisions, and the ad hoc nature of executive branch interventions make it difficult to reassure consumers that their welfare is being protected and that the concession is sustainable. The signing of a concession contract for the Buenos Aires water and sanitation system in December 1992 attracted worldwide attention and caused considerable controversy in Argentina. It was one of the world's largest concessions, but the case was also interesting for other reasons. The concession was implemented rapidly, in contrast with slow implementation of privatization in Santiago, for example. And reform generated major improvements in the sector, including wider coverage, better service, more efficient company operations, and reduced waste. Moreover, the winning bid brought an immediate 26.9 percent reduction in water system tariffs. Consumers benefited from the system's expansion and from the immediate drop in real prices, which was only partly reversed by subsequent changes in tariffs and access charges. And these improvements would probably not have occurred under public administration of the system. Still, as Alcázar, Abdala, and Shirley show, information asymmetries, perverse incentives, and weak regulatory institutions could threaten the concession's sustainability. Opportunities for the company to act opportunistically - and the regulator, arbitrarily - exist because of politicized regulation, a poor information base, serious flaws in the concession contract, a lumpy and ad hoc tariff system, and a general lack of transparency in the regulatory process. Because of these circumstances, public confidence in the process has eroded. The Buenos Aires concession shows how important transparent, rule-based decisionmaking is to maintaining public trust in regulated infrastructure. This paper - a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze institutional issues in regulated infrastructure. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Institutions, Politics, and Contracts: Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply (RPO 681-87). Mary Shirley may be contacted at mshirleyworldbank.org
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  • 71
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    Distributional Outcomes of a Decentralized Welfare Program (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Galasso, Emanuela Distributional Outcomes of a Decentralized Welfare Program
    Keywords: Anti-Poverty ; Community Groups ; Community Organizations ; Conflict ; Food-For-Education ; Income ; Irrigation ; Land Inequality ; Local Farmers ; Local Irrigation Facility ; Participatory Poverty Assessments ; Poor ; Poor Families ; Poor Farmers ; Poor Households ; Poverty Programs ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Families ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Targeting ; Anti-Poverty ; Community Groups ; Community Organizations ; Conflict ; Food-For-Education ; Income ; Irrigation ; Land Inequality ; Local Farmers ; Local Irrigation Facility ; Participatory Poverty Assessments ; Poor ; Poor Families ; Poor Farmers ; Poor Households ; Poverty Programs ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Rural ; Rural Development ; Rural Families ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers to Poor ; Targeting
    Abstract: April 2000 - Community-level targeting of antipoverty programs is now common. Do local community organizations target the poor better than the central government? In one program in Bangladesh, the answer tends to be yes, but performance varies from village to village. The authors try to explain why. It is common for central governments to delegate authority over the targeting of welfare programs to local community organizations - which may be better informed about who is poor, though possibly less accountable for getting the money to the local poor - while the center retains control over how much goes to each local region. Galasso and Ravallion outline a theoretical model of the interconnected behavior of the various actors in such a setting. The model's information structure provides scope for econometric identification. Applying data for a specific program in Bangladesh, they find that overall targeting was mildly pro-poor, mostly because of successful targeting within villages. But this varied across villages. Although some village characteristics promoted better targeting, these were generally not the same characteristics that attracted resources from the center. Galasso and Ravallion observe that the center's desire for broad geographic coverage appears to have severely constrained the scope for pro-poor village targeting. However, poor villages tended not to be better at reaching their poor. They find some evidence that local institutions matter. The presence of cooperatives for farmers and the landless appears to be associated with more pro-poor program targeting. The presence of recreational clubs has the opposite effect. Sometimes the benefits of decentralized social programs are captured by local elites, depending on the type of spending being decentralized. When public spending is on a private (excludable) good, and there is no self-targeting mechanism to ensure that only the poor participate, there is ample scope for local mistargeting. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the performance of alternative means of reaching the poor through public programs. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Policies for Poor Areas (RPO 681-39). The authors may be contacted at egalassoworldbank.org or mravallion@worldbank.org
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  • 72
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    Inflation and the Poor (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Easterly, William Inflation and the Poor
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Access to Markets ; Bank ; Bonds ; Checks ; Cred Education ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Instruments ; Financial Literacy ; Health Indicators ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; ICT Applications ; ICT for Health ; Income ; Incomes ; Inflation ; Inflation ; Information and Communication Technologies ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Minimum Wage ; Money ; Pensions ; Poverty Rate ; Poverty Rates ; Probabilities ; Research Assistance ; Stocks ; Subsidies ; Unemployment ; Wages
    Abstract: May 2000 - The poor suffer more from inflation than the rich do, reveals this survey of poor people in 38 countries. Using polling data for 31,869 households in 38 countries and allowing for country effects, Easterly and Fischer show that the poor are more likely than the rich to mention inflation as a top national concern. This result survives several robustness checks. Also, direct measures of improvements in well-being for the poor - the change in their share of national income, the percentage decline in poverty, and the percentage change in the real minimum wage - are negatively correlated with inflation in pooled cross-country samples. High inflation tends to lower the share of the bottom quintile and the real minimum wage - and tends to increase poverty. This paper - a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the International Monetary Fund - is part of a larger effort to study the effects of macroeconomic policies on growth and poverty
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  • 73
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    Gender, Poverty, and Nonfarm Employment in Ghana and Uganda (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Newman, Constance Gender, Poverty, and Nonfarm Employment in Ghana and Uganda
    Keywords: Agricultural Output ; Cash Crops ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Health ; Gender and Law ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Income Diversification ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Human Capital ; Human Development ; Income ; Income Shares ; Income-Generating Activities ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Levels ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Rural Economy ; Rural Poverty ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Rural Residents ; Agricultural Output ; Cash Crops ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Development ; Gender and Health ; Gender and Law ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Income ; Household Income Diversification ; Housing and Human Habitats ; Human Capital ; Human Development ; Income ; Income Shares ; Income-Generating Activities ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Poor ; Population Policies ; Poverty ; Poverty Levels ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural ; Rural Areas ; Rural Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Rural Economy ; Rural Poverty ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Rural Residents
    Abstract: June 2000 - For women in Ghana and Uganda, nonfarm activities play an important role in yielding the lowest - and the most rapidly declining - rural poverty rates. In both countries rural poverty declined fastest for female heads of household engaged in nonfarm work (which tended to be a secondary activity). But patterns vary between the two countries. Newman and Canagarajah provide evidence that women's nonfarm activities help reduce poverty in two economically and culturally different countries, Ghana and Uganda. In both countries rural poverty rates were lowest - and fell most rapidly - for female heads of household engaged in nonfarm activities. Participation in nonfarm activities increased more rapidly for women, especially married women and female heads of household, than for men. Women were more likely than men to combine agriculture and nonfarm activities. In Ghana it was nonfarm activities (for which income data are available) that provided the highest average incomes and the highest shares of income. Bivariate probit analysis of participation shows that in Uganda female heads of household and in Ghana women in general are significantly more likely than men to participate in nonfarm activities and less likely to participate in agriculture. This paper - a joint product of Rural Development, Development Research Group, and the Social Protection Team, Human Development Network- is part of a larger effort in the Bank to discuss gender, employment, and poverty linkages. The authors may be contacted at cnewman1worldbank.orgor scanagarajah@worldbank.org
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  • 74
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    Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: June 2000 - As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for previous unilateral liberalization. The feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for autonomous (unilateral) liberalization. Mattoo and Olarreaga show that the feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. A credit rule established at the beginning of a round of negotiations has a primarily distributional effect, favoring those who have already undertaken liberalization. Implementing such a rule would depend on the generosity of those who have not liberalized. The authors propose instead establishing a credit rule at the end of a round of negotiations, which creates an ex ante assurance that any unilateral liberalization will receive credit in the next round. Such a rule would help induce or enhance liberalization in some countries between negotiating rounds by reducing the gains from retaining protection as negotiating currency. More strikingly, it could also lead to deeper levels of multilateral liberalization and induce other countries to go further than they would in the absence of a rule. Most important, such an ex ante rule would not rely on altruism to be generally acceptable. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy in goods and services. The authors may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org or molarreaga@worldbank.org
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  • 75
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    Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Agénor, Pierre-Richard Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints
    Keywords: Arbitrage ; Capital Markets ; Consumers ; Consumption ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Income ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomic Shocks ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Utility ; Open Economy ; Permanent Income ; Political Economy ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Real GDP ; Real Interest Rate ; Savings ; Trade ; Utility ; Variables ; Welfare ; Arbitrage ; Capital Markets ; Consumers ; Consumption ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Income ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomic Shocks ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Utility ; Open Economy ; Permanent Income ; Political Economy ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Real GDP ; Real Interest Rate ; Savings ; Trade ; Utility ; Variables ; Welfare
    Abstract: June 2000 - When households face the possibility of borrowing constraints in bad times, favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade may lead to higher rates of private savings. Agénor and Aizenman examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak), savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade-in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test for asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results-based on panel data for nonoil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks)-indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings. This paper is a product of Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction, World Bank Institute. Pierre-Richard Agénor may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org
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  • 76
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    The Distribution of Mexico's Public Spending on Education (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Salinas, Angel The Distribution of Mexico's Public Spending on Education
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Cred Earnings ; Debt Markets ; Education ; Education ; Education for All ; Effective Schools and Teachers ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sector ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Income Groups ; Information ; Investments ; Level Of Education ; Loan Programs ; Population Policies ; Primary Education ; Primary Education ; Public Expenditures ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Spending ; Student ; Student Loan ; Students ; Subsidies ; Subsidy ; Tertiary Education ; Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Cred Earnings ; Debt Markets ; Education ; Education ; Education for All ; Effective Schools and Teachers ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sector ; Gender ; Gender and Education ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Income Groups ; Information ; Investments ; Level Of Education ; Loan Programs ; Population Policies ; Primary Education ; Primary Education ; Public Expenditures ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Spending ; Student ; Student Loan ; Students ; Subsidies ; Subsidy ; Tertiary Education
    Abstract: July 2000 - Public spending on tertiary education in Mexico is strongly regressive, benefiting mainly the nonpoor in urban areas. To give the poor a chance at higher education, student loan programs or means-tested financial aid and scholarship programs (though rarely devoid of subsidy) are preferable to free education services, because loan and aid programs target the students who suffer from the financial market's failure to provide long-term loans for higher education. Research shows that education has played a crucial role in raising levels of earnings and that returns to education in Mexico have increased, particularly in higher education and in the upper tail of the conditional earnings distribution. Lopez-Acevedo and Salinas examine patterns of public spending on education in the face of further increases in earnings inequality. They analyze the incidence of benefits using two sets of data: data on unit costs per student by state and by education level, and data from surveys on household income and spending. Among their findings: · Nationally, the poorest income groups get most of the national and state subsidy for primary education. At higher education levels the poor get progressively smaller subsidies. · For all Mexico, government spending on primary education is very progressive. In lower secondary education it is neutral. And in upper secondary education it benefits mainly the middle and upper classes. Tertiary education is strongly regressive, benefiting mainly the richest deciles and mainly in urban areas. · But those government patterns vary by region. In the central region average total spending is more uniformly distributed than the national pattern. In the northern region the subsidy is progressive. Primary education is neutral and higher levels of instruction are moderately regressive. In the central region primary schooling is very progressive, while lower secondary schooling is almost neutral. Upper secondary and tertiary instruction strongly benefit the richest income deciles. In the southern region basic (primary and lower secondary) education is very progressive, upper secondary education is neutral, and tertiary education is highly regressive. In Mexico City all levels of education except primary are strongly regressive. Lopez-Acevedo and Salinas show that public spending at the tertiary level is more regressive than household spending. So much of public spending on tertiary education favors nonpoor families in urban areas that to reallocate the spending so that poor students have a chance to participate would require developing credit markets for higher education. The government's role should be to help overcome market failures in the financial sector, which limit the availability of long-term financing for higher education. These failures can be corrected through student loan programs or means-tested financial aid and scholarship programs. Such programs are rarely devoid of subsidy but are preferable to the direct, cost-free provision of services because the subsidy is targeted more closely to the source of market failure. This paper-a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and Mexico Country Office, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a strategy to reduce poverty and inequality in Mexico. The study was part of the research project Earnings Inequality after Mexico's Economic Reforms. The authors may be contacted at gacevedoworldbank.org or asalinas@worldbank.org
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