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  • Online-Ressource  (96)
  • Lederman, Daniel  (58)
  • Anderson, Kym  (38)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (96)
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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Schlagwort(e): Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Kurzfassung: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 2
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Gatti, Roberta Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
    Schlagwort(e): Data Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Forecast Error ; GDP Growth Forecast ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Optimism ; Statistical Capacity
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth-are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank's forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund's January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country's Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector
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  • 3
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Serie: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Kurzfassung: Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic-induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich. Moreover, food insecurity in MENA has been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making
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  • 4
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Cull, Robert Digital Payments and the COVID-19 Shock: The Role of Preexisting Conditions in Banking, Infrastructure, Human Capabilities, and Digital Regulation
    Schlagwort(e): Covid-19 Lockdown ; Covid-19 Shock ; Digital Divide ; Digital Infrastructure ; Digital Payment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies
    Kurzfassung: Treating data collected pre- and post-COVID-19 as a quasi-experiment, this paper examines the importance of presumed enablers and safeguards in driving the observed expansion of digital payments and digital financial inclusion. The analysis interacts drivers of digital payment usage with a country-specific proxy of the severity of the COVID-19 shock, leveraging variation in both the drivers and the quasi-treatment (the COVID-19 shock) to identify the parameters. Although regulation of banks and digital economic activity were correlated with digital payments before and during the pandemic, the capabilities of users and connectivity (to electricity, the internet, and mobile telephony) were responsible for increased use of digital financial services in response to the shock. An interpretation is that governments and the private sector were able to overcome underdeveloped banking systems and weak regulation of the digital economy, but only where there was adequate digital infrastructure, connectivity, and a high share of the population that understood and could make use of digital payments
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  • 5
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Serie: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Adjustments ; Covid-19 ; Currency Depreciations ; Growth ; Inflation ; Jobs ; Labor Markets ; MENA ; Middle East ; Middle East and North Africa ; North Africa ; Shocks ; Terms of Trade ; Wages
    Kurzfassung: Covid-19. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commodity price volatility. The rise of global inflation and interest rates. Currency depreciations among indebted middle-income economies. And now, natural disasters. As a sequence of events, the consequences can be both tragic and long-lasting. After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region's labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. Will these shocks permanently scar the hard-working people of MENA? The report answers this question by highlighting the trade-offs facing labor markets when facing macroeconomic shocks. A critical trade-off pertains to the loss of jobs versus decreases in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages and discusses policy options to support the most vulnerable
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Arias, Francisco Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Mexico
    Schlagwort(e): Difference in Difference ; Education ; Education and Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Employment ; Job Displacement ; Job Loss Impact by Education ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Wages ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Kurzfassung: This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of -7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from -7.5 to -4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Yuting Fan, Rachel Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries
    Schlagwort(e): Coronavirus Economic Recovery ; COVID-19 Recovery ; Debt Financed Public Spending ; Developing Country Debt ; Disaster Recovery ; Economic Impact Of Covid Pandemic ; Economic Recover In Developing Countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Government Debt ; Pandemic Economic Impact ; Public Debt ; Public Debt Restructuring ; Public Sector Development ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor
    Kurzfassung: Public debt in developing economies rose at a fast clip during 2020-21, at least partly due to the onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman opined in early 2021 that "fighting covid is like fighting a war." This paper argues that the Covid-19 pandemic shares many traits with natural disasters, except for the global nature of the pandemic shock. This paper empirically examines trends in debt and economic growth around the onset of three types of calamities, namely natural disasters, armed conflicts, and external-debt distress in developing countries. The estimations provide quantitative estimates of differences in growth and debt trends in economies suffering episodes of calamities relative to the trends observed in economies not experiencing calamities. The paper finds that debt and growth evolve quite differently depending on the type of calamity. The evidence indicates that public debt and output growth tend to rise faster after natural disasters than in the counterfactual scenario without disasters, thus illustrating how debt-financed fiscal expansions can help economic reconstruction. The findings are different for episodes of debt distress defined as periods of debt restructuring, however. Economies experiencing debt distress are associated with growth trends that are on average below the growth rates of unaffected economies prior to and after the beginning of an episode of debt restructuring
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  • 8
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Pandemic ; Recovery
    Kurzfassung: The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises-first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine-have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk-from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region's development failings-including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water
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  • 9
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Serie: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Kurzfassung: The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region's growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible
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  • 10
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (94 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: The argument that digitalization fosters economic activity has been strengthened by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Because digital technologies are general-purpose technologies that are usable across a wide variety of economic activities, the gains from achieving universal coverage of digital services are likely to be large and shared throughout each economy. However, the Middle East and North Africa region suffers from a "digital paradox": the region's population uses social media more than expected for its level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but uses the internet or other digital tools to make payments less than expected. The Upside of Digital for the Middle East and North Africa: How Digital Technology Adoption Can Accelerate Growth and Create Jobs presents evidence that the socioeconomic gains of digitalizing the economies of the region are huge: GDP per capita could rise by more than 40 percent; manufacturing revenue per unit of factors of production could increase by 37 percent; employment in manufacturing could rise by 7 percent; tourist arrivals could rise by 70 percent, creating jobs in the hospitality sector; long-term unemployment rates could fall to negligible levels; and female labor force participation could double to more than 40 percent. To reap these gains, universal access to digital services is crucial, as is their widespread use for economic purposes. The book explores how fast the region could approach universal coverage, whether targeting the rollout of digital infrastructure services makes a difference, and what is needed to increase the use of digital payment tools. The authors find that targeting underserved populations and areas can accelerate the achievement of universal access, while fostering competition and improving the functioning of financial and telecommunications sectors can encourage the adoption of digital technologies. In addition, building societal trust in the government and in related institutions such as banks and financial services is critical for fostering the increased use of digital payment tools
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  • 11
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 12
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Serie: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Current Account ; Economic Growth ; External Balances ; Fiscal Balance ; Oil ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Productivity
    Kurzfassung: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region's economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region's public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region's health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems
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  • 13
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 14
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ana Paula, Ana Paula The Effects of Digital-Technology Adoption on Productivity and Factor Demand: Firm-Level Evidence from Developing Countries
    Kurzfassung: This paper presents firm-level estimates of revenue-based total factor productivity premiums of manufacturing firms adopting digital technology in 82 developing economies over 2002-19. The paper estimates productivity using the control function approach and assuming an endogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, which is a function of multiple firm-choice variables. It estimates the effects of digital technology adoption, learning by exporting, and managerial experience on revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The results reject the 0 hypothesis of an exogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, in favor of one in which digital technology adoption, along with the other choice variables, affects revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The estimated premiums are positive for 67.3 (email adoption), 54.6 (website adoption), 59.4 (learning by exporting), and 60.6 (managerial experience) percent of the sample. The probability-adjusted median (log) revenue-based total factor productivity premium associated with email adoption is 1.6 percent and that of website adoption is 2.2 percent, with the latter being higher than the premiums corresponding to exporting and managerial experience. On average, changes in digital technology adoption, email, and website are labor and capital augmenting. The paper also explores the role of complementarities among the firm choice variables
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  • 15
    ISBN: 9781464809781
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (196 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    Serie: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Druckausg.
    Schlagwort(e): Labor Market Integration ; Regional Integration ; Trade Integration ; Economic Integration ; Stability
    Kurzfassung: This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region's policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements
    Anmerkung: Description based on print version record
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 16
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN
    Kurzfassung: This paper presents estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and gross domestic product per capita of economies from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The increase in gross domestic product per capita that these economies experienced during 1970-2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class. The impact of the rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on the countries' initial level of gross domestic product per capita. In the majority of these countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to gross domestic product per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth, based on the values of the countries' gross domestic product per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of gross domestic product per capita, a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth in gross domestic product per capita. The paper shows that human capital accumulation is an important channel through which a rise of the middle class affects economic growth
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  • 17
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464810435
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (132 p)
    Serie: Directions in Development
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: Does economic size matter for economic development outcomes? If so are current policies adequately addressing the role of size in the development process? Using working age population as a proxy for country size, Open and Nimble, systematically analyzes what makes small economies unique. Small economies are not necessarily prone to underdevelopment and in fact can achieve very high income levels. Small economies, however, do tend to be highly open to both international trade and foreign direct investment, have highly specialized export structures, and have large government expenditures relative to their Gross Domestic Product. The export structures of small economies are concentrated in a few products or services and in a small number of export destinations. In turn, this export concentration is associated with terms of trade volatility, which combined with high exposure to international trade, implies that small economies tend to face more volatility on average as external volatility permeates national economic life. Yet small economies tend to compensate for their export concentration by being nimble in the sense of being able to change their production and export structure relatively quickly over time. Moreover, limited territory plays a role in shaping how economies are affected by natural disasters, even when the probability of facing such disasters is not necessarily higher among small than among large economies. The combination of large governments with macroeconomic volatility seems to be associated with low national savings rates in small economies. This combination could be a challenge for long-term growth if productivity growth and foreign investment do not compensate for low domestic savings. The book finishes with some thoughts on how policy makers can respond to these issues through coordinated investments and regional integration efforts, as well as fiscal policy reforms aimed at both increasing public savings and conducting countercyclical fiscal policies
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  • 18
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This report by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank studies the region's fiscal policies. After reviewing LAC's growth performance, Chapter 1 provides an accounting of its financing needs during the 21st Century to understand how such a diverse region ended up with fiscal deficits across the board in 2016. Chapter 2 goes back to the 1960s and assesses the cyclical properties of fiscal policies. LAC, like most developing countries and in contrast with most developed economies, exhibited procyclical fiscal policies. Good news arrived in the 2000s: one in three economies became countercyclical, which helped improve credit ratings. Yet fiscal policy is complicated by our inability to know if current economic conditions are temporary or permanent. The report argues for a prudent stance that would err on the side of saving too much during upswings and perhaps borrowing too little during downturns
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  • 19
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Bravo-Ortega, Claudio Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation
    Kurzfassung: The diffusion of knowledge plays a central role in endogenous growth theories. Simply put, in these models new knowledge can be generated from preexisting knowledge. In other words, existing knowledge is a pure public good, which can benefit any economic agent anywhere. More generally, endogenous growth theories rely on a broad set of assumptions that have not been tested sufficiently, especially for developing economies. The scope and nature of knowledge spillovers is, however, important for policy, because the presumed positive spillovers can justify government intervention (if the spillovers are localized) or laissez faire (if the spillovers are international). This paper empirically assesses the scope and direction of knowledge spillovers in national patenting and, separately, product innovation by firms. The first set of exercises tests whether the cumulative knowledge specifications of the knowledge production function can explain international patterns of patenting or whether own research and development is necessary to produce patents. The second set of exercises analyzes whether firm product-quality upgrading and the introduction of new products depend on product innovation within industries, within or across countries. The evidence supports the view that existing stocks of knowledge, domestic and foreign, enhance national innovation and entrepreneurship in the form of product innovation. More specifically, the evidence suggests that within-country and international knowledge spillovers are positive, but international spillovers can be negative for firms that are far from innovative firms in terms of productivity. The results depend on the concept of "distance" between countries and firms
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  • 20
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Hakobyan, Shushanik Factor Endowments, Technology, Capital Mobility and the Sources of Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing
    Kurzfassung: Using data on net exports and factor endowments for more than 100 countries, this paper studies the relationship between factor endowments and comparative advantage in 28 manufacturing sectors between 1975 and 2010. The authors allow for systematic technological differences across countries, including differences in factor intensities across countries with different ratios of skilled labor over unskilled labor. Capital seems to be a source of comparative disadvantage in manufacturing, and skilled labor is a source of comparative advantage in the global sample. However, skilled labor is a source of comparative disadvantage in economies with low human capital, whereas it is a source of comparative advantage in the sample of countries with high human capital. The authors attribute this heterogeneity to the rise of capital mobility across countries, particularly since the mid-1990s
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  • 21
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right : On the Impacts of Commodity Prices on Households (and Countries)
    Kurzfassung: This paper provides an overview of the impact that one-time changes in commodity and other prices have on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The ata uncovers strong commodity dependence on both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities, and they often also depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity price shocks. The article explores these effects with a review of the relevant literature. The authors study consumption and income responses, labor market responses, and spillovers across sectors. The paper provides evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 22
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 1990-2013
    Kurzfassung: Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labor markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labor markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labor market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labor markets within Mexico and within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labor market integration
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  • 23
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Bennett, Federico The Volatility of International Trade Flows in the 21st Century: Whose Fault Is It Anyway?
    Kurzfassung: After investment, exports and imports are the most volatile components of aggregate demand within countries. Moreover, the volatility of growth and the volatility of trade flows tend to move together; they declined from the 1990s until 2009, followed by an increase since 2009. This paper explores the drivers of such movements in trade-flow volatility. The analysis decomposes trade growth into six components to study their contribution to the overall volatility of trade flows, and presents three findings. First, trade volatility is mostly explained by a factor common to all countries, country-specific factors, and changes in the gravity-related characteristics of a country's trading partners. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre-2009 decline in volatility and the post-2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a steady decline in the variance of country-specific factors. In contrast, the latter appears to be driven mainly by an increase in the volatility of factors common to all countries. Third, trade diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in trade volatility driven by country-specific factors, especially in developing countries
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  • 24
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Brambilla, Irene Exporters, Engineers, and Blue-Collar Workers
    Kurzfassung: This paper investigates differences in the composition of employment between exporting and non-exporting firms. In particular, it asks whether exporting firms hire more engineers relative to blue-collar workers than non-exporting firms. In a stylized partial-equilibrium model, firms produce goods of varying quality and exporters tend to produce higher quality goods, which are intensive in engineers relative to blue-collar workers. Firms are heterogeneous and more productive firms become exporters and have a higher demand for engineers. The paper provides causal evidence in support of these theories using the Chilean Encuesta Nacional Industrial Anual, an annual census of manufacturing firms. The results from an instrumental variable estimator suggest that Chilean exporters indeed utilize a higher share of engineers over blue-collar workers
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  • 25
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This report, produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank, examines LAC's challenges as the global economy settles to an equilibrium with lower growth and lower commodity prices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the world economy and how it affects LAC's short and medium-term prospects. It argues that LAC suffered an external shock that shaped growth in recent years, and that the current global context is likely here to stay. Many LAC countries experienced significant depreciations which in principle should help adjust to the new equilibrium. The extent to which these depreciations facilitate a soft landing, however, depends on a number of factors. Chapter 2 explores the response of LAC's trade to the recent depreciations and the role it could play in facilitating a recovery. It examines if there are early signs of an export recovery and whether the region's increased dependence on commodity exports could hinder LAC's recovery
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  • 26
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus Effects of Income Inequality on Aggregate Output
    Kurzfassung: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
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  • 27
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Sprache: Spanisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (256 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Druckausg.
    Schlagwort(e): Spanish translation ; FDI ; Foreign direct investment ; Domestic savings ; Financial integration
    Kurzfassung: Este reporte explora la restructuracion de la economia global ocasionada por el ascenso del Sur y destaca la transformacion en los patrones de integracion global de ALC y las consecuencias de esta transformacion en la dinamica del desarrollo de la region. En particular, se analiza de forma sistematica los aspectos concernientes al comercio y las finanzas internacionales, la macroeconomia y el mercado laboral latinoamericano
    Anmerkung: Description based on print version record
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  • 28
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (248 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    Serie: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Druckausg. Latin America and the rising South
    DDC: 332.098
    RVK:
    Schlagwort(e): Entwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftslage ; Lateinamerika ; Karibischer Raum ; Wirtschaftliche Integration ; Weltwirtschaft ; Sozioökonomischer Wandel ; Süden ; Emerging Market ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Außenhandel ; Finanzwirtschaft ; Investition ; domestic savings ; FDI ; Financial integration ; Foreign direct investment ; Global financial network ; Global trade network ; Global value chains ; Globalization ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor market dynamics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate dynamics ; Rise of the south ; Trade Integration ; Trade structure ; Erde ; Lateinamerika
    Kurzfassung: The world economy is not what it used to be twenty years ago. For most of the 20th century, the world economy was characterized by developed (North) countries acting as 'center' to a 'periphery' of developing (South) countries. However, the recent rise of developing economies suggests the need to go beyond this North-South dichotomy. This tectonic re-configuration of the global landscape has brought about significant changes to countries in the Latin America and Caribean (LAC) region. The time is ripe for an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and nature of LAC's external connections.This latest volume in the World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies series will focus on the implications of these trends for the economic development of LAC countries. In particular, trade, financial, macroeconomic, and sectoral shifts, as well as labor-market aspects will be systematically analyzed
    Anmerkung: Description based on print version record
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  • 29
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Halliday, Timothy Tracking Wage Inequality Trends with Prices and Different Trade Models: Evidence from Mexico
    Kurzfassung: Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexicos accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. The rise of inequality can be explained by the evolution of the relative price of skill-intensive goods relative to unskilled-intensive goods, but these prices flattened by 1999 and thus cannot explain the subsequent decline in wage inequality. An alternative trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model's predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the models simplicity, the model's predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell
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  • 30
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion and Firm Entry into and Survival in Export Markets
    Kurzfassung: Surveys of export promotion agencies suggest that that they tend to focus on helping firms become exporters as a means to stimulate aggregate export growth. But the existing empirical evidence has paid little attention to the role of export promotion agencies in helping entry into exporting. This paper fills this gap with a panel of exporting and non-exporting firms from seven Latin American countries during the period 2006-2010. The results suggest that export promotion encourages exports mainly by helping firms enter into and survive in export markets. The impact on the intensive margin of exporting firms is not robust. This finding is consistent with export promotion helping reduce fixed rather than variable costs of exporting, which is to be expected if export promotion agencies help correct for market failures associated with information externalities
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  • 31
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Latent Trade Diversification and its Relevance for Macroeconomic Stability
    Kurzfassung: Poverty Reduction
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  • 32
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Artuç, Erhan The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America
    Kurzfassung: This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Hondu
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  • 33
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Shocks and the Volatility of Returns to Schooling: Evidence from Twelve Latin American Economies
    Kurzfassung: This paper builds on previous studies to uncover evidence suggesting that cyclical fluctuations in returns to schooling are determined by fluctuations in foreign demand, which tend to be positively correlated with returns to schooling. The effec
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  • 34
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Jensen, Hans G Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Responses
    Kurzfassung: When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with the terms of trade change. Several recent analyses have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the-envelope method. This paper provides a more comprehensive analysis that uses a global economywide model that is able to take account of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production or consumption. The model is able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of various countries. The results support the conclusion from earlier studies that there is a need for stronger World Trade Organization disciplines on export restrictions
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  • 35
    ISBN: 9781464802850
    Sprache: Spanisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (178 p)
    Serie: Latin American Development Forum
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: El emprendimiento es un determinante fundamental del crecimiento y la creacion de empleo. Pese a que los emprendedores abundan en America Latina y el Caribe, las empresas de la region son mas pequenas y menos propensas a crecer e innovar que las de otras regiones. El crecimiento de la productividad lleva decadas siendo mediocre y el reciente period de auge de las materias primas no ha supuesto una excepcion. Asi pues, la presencia de emprendedores dinamicos sera necesaria para impulsar la creacion de puestos de trabajo de calidad y la aceleracion del crecimiento de la productividad en la region. En El emprendimiento en America Latina: muchas empresas y poca innovacion se estudia el panorama del emprendimiento en America Latina y el Caribe. El libro recurre a nuevas bases de datos que abordan cuestiones como la creacion de empresas, las dinamicas empresariales, las decisiones de exportar y el comportamiento de las corporaciones multinacionales y sintetiza los resultados de un analisis exhaustivo del estatus, las perspectivas y los retos del emprendimiento en la region. Asimismo, el libro suministra herramientas utiles e informacion para ayudar a los profesionales y responsables de las politicas a identificar los ambitos de las mismas que los gobiernos pueden explorar para impulsar la innovacion e incentivar el emprendimiento transformador con potencial de crecimiento elevado
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  • 36
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right
    Kurzfassung: This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 37
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Hollweg, Claire H Structural Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes
    Kurzfassung: This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates. Together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross-country macro level on labor-market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. Data were collected from a variety of sources, including the World Bank World Development Indicators, the International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, and the International Labor Organization Key Indicators of the Labor Market. The resulting dataset covers up to 88 countries, the majority being developing, for 10 years on either side of structural reforms that took place between 1960 and 2001. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, the authors run fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor. Unlike related literature, the paper does not find conclusive evidence on unemployment. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work
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  • 38
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Artuç, Erhan A Mapping of Labor Mobility Costs in Developing Countries
    Kurzfassung: Estimates of labor mobility costs are needed to assess the responses of employment and wages to trade shocks when factor adjustment is costly. Available methods to estimate those costs rely on panel data, which are seldom available in developing countries. The authors propose a method to estimate mobility costs using readily obtainable data worldwide. The estimator matches the changes in observed sectoral employment allocations with the predicted allocations from a model of costly labor adjustment. This paper estimates a world map of labor mobility costs and uses those estimates to explore the response of labor markets to trade policy
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  • 39
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (65 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Political Economy of Public Policies
    Kurzfassung: The agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies. Many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational, while others have been gradual but persistent. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political-economy explanations that have been advanced. Based on a rich global data set covering a half-century of evidence on commodities, countries, and policy instruments, the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible
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  • 40
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty
    Kurzfassung: This paper has two purposes. It first considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis. Those changes-reductions in import protection or increases in export restraints-were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the spike in international prices. The authors find that this insulation added substantially to the spike in international prices for rice, wheat, maize, and oilseeds. As a result, although domestic prices rose less than they would have without insulation in some developing countries, in many other countries they rose more than they would have in the absence of such insulation. The paper's second purpose it to estimate the combined impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally. The analysis finds that the actual poverty-reducing impact of insulation is much less than its apparent impact, and that its net effect was to increase global poverty in 2008 by 8 million people, although this increase was not significantly different from zero. Since there are domestic policy instruments, such as conditional cash transfers, that could now provide social protection for the poor far more efficiently and equitably than variations in border restrictions, the authors suggest it is time to seek a multilateral agreement to desist from changing restrictions on trade when international food prices spike
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  • 41
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Arias, Javier Trade, Informal Employment and Labor Adjustment Costs
    Kurzfassung: Informal employment is ubiquitous in developing countries, but few studies have estimated workers' switching costs between informal and formal employment. This paper builds on the empirical literature grounded in discrete choice models to estimate these costs. The results suggest that inter-industry labor mobility costs are large, but entry costs into informal employment are significantly lower than the costs of entry in formal employment. Simulations of labor-market adjustments caused by a trade-related fall in manufacturing goods prices indicate that the share of informally employed workers rises after liberalization, but this is due to entry into the labor market by previously idle labor
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  • 42
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Fernandes, Ana M Export Entrepreneurship and Trade Structure in Latin America during Good and Bad Times
    Kurzfassung: The authors use a new dataset on export transactions for a large set of Latin American and Caribbean and comparator countries to assess the extent of "export entrepreneurship" during periods of fast export growth (2005-2007) and depressed external demand (2008-2009). Export entrepreneurship is equated with the extensive margin of exports, namely the advent of new exporting firms, new export products, and new export market destinations. The main findings are: (1) annual exporter entry, exit, and survival rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are quite similar to what is observed in other countries, and entry rates across sectors are quite similar but survival rates appear to be highest in agriculture; (2) the relative size of entrants into export markets (relative to incumbents) tended to be lower for natural resource-abundant countries during 2005-2007, but less so during the crisis years of 2008-2009; (3) entry rates tend to be lower in sectors in which a country has revealed comparative advantage, however, exit rates and survival rates of new exporters are higher in those sectors; and (4) the low growth of exports during the global recession of 2008-2009 in Latin America and the Caribbean was due to lower growth in exports of incumbent firms' pre-existing products and destinations, while new products and destinations tended to attenuate the recession's effects. Overall, the data suggest that the Latin American and Caribbean region appears to be no less entrepreneurial in terms of the extensive margins of exports than comparator countries
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  • 43
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (55 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Distortions to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Kurzfassung: To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy induced distortions to relative agricultural prices to address this question econometrically. First, the authors test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. They find that on impact there is no significant response of relative agricultural price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita growth. Then, the authors test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative agricultural price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. The fixed effects estimates yield that, during the 1960-2005 period, a ten percentage points increase in distortions to relative agricultural prices decreased the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum
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  • 44
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Hollweg, Claire H Monitoring Export Vulnerability to Changes in Growth Rates of Major Global Markets
    Kurzfassung: Interest in assessing the impacts on developing countries of changes in major markets' economic performance has risen in tandem with global economic uncertainty over short- and medium-term growth prospects. This paper proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country's exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. The authors capture this sensitivity by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Furthermore, export vulnerability is computed separately for commodities and differentiated products. This methodology is applied to six developing countries, one from each World Bank region, selected to be otherwise similar yet differ in terms of the level of exposure to major global markets as well as the product composition of their export basket. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets. This result calls for developing countries to diversify their export markets rather than shielding themselves from international markets, which would actually raise economic risk and vulnerability
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  • 45
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Kaplan David S What Drives Short-Run Labor Market Volatility in Offshoring Industries?
    Kurzfassung: Recent research shows that employment in Mexico's offshoring maquiladora industries is twice as volatile as employment in their U.S. industry counterparts. The analyses in this paper use data from Mexico's social security records and U.S. customs between the first quarter of 2007 and the last quarter of 2009 to identify four channels through which economic shocks emanating from the United States were amplified when transmitted into Mexico's offshoring labor market of Northern Mexico. First, employment and imports within industries are complements, which is consistent with imports being used as inputs for the assembly of exportable goods within industries. That is, when imports fell during the crisis, employment in Mexico was reduced rather than protected by the fall of imports. Second, contrary to other studies, employment is more responsive than wages to trade shocks. Third, fluctuations in Mexico-U.S. trade were associated with changes in the composition of employment, with the skill level of workers rising during downturns and falling during upswings. This implies that the correlation between average wages and trade shocks is partly driven by labor-force compositional effects, which may obscure individual-worker wage flexibility. Fourth, trade shocks affecting related industries (industries linked by employment flows affect employment at least as much as own-industry trade shocks, thus amplifying employment volatility through the propagation of shocks across industries within Northern Mexico. Furthermore, the data suggest that the observed fluctuations in U.S.-Mexico trade at the onset of the Great Recession in the U.S. were not associated with pre-existing employment trends in Northern Mexico
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  • 46
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Brückner, Markus Trade Causes Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Kurzfassung: In the 1990s the mainstream consensus was that trade causes growth. Subsequent research shed doubt on the consensus view, as evidence suggested that the identification of the effect of trade on growth was problematic in the existing literature. This paper contributes to this debate by focusing on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It estimates the effect of openness to international trade on economic growth with panel data. Employing instrumental variables techniques that correct for endogeneity bias, the empirical evidence suggests that within-country variations in trade openness cause economic growth: a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over gross domestic product is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5 percent per year; the long-run effect is larger, reaching about 0.8 percent after ten years. These results are robust to controlling for country and time fixed effects as well as political institutions
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  • 47
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Would freeing up world trade reduce poverty and inequality?
    Schlagwort(e): 1980-2005 ; Agraraußenhandel ; Handelsliberalisierung ; Agrarpreis ; Agrareinkommen ; Armut ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Welt
    Kurzfassung: Trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in de/veloping countries, yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. Those distortions reduce some forms of poverty and inequality but worsen others, so the net effects are unclear without empirical modeling. This paper summarizes a series of new economy-wide global and national empirical studies that focus on the net effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade on poverty and inequality globally and in various developing countries. The global LINKAGE model results suggest that removing those remaining distortions would reduce international inequality, largely by boosting net farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and would reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model for a sample of 15 countries, and nine stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue
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  • 48
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (21 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Martin, Will Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms
    Kurzfassung: For individual countries, variable trade barriers can be used to reduce the volatility of domestic relative to world prices. If this is done by countries accounting for a large share of the market, its effect is offset by increases in world price volatility. This study shows the nature of the resulting collective action problem, with the policy being ineffective on average in stabilizing domestic prices while increasing the volatility of the income transfers from terms-of-trade changes. A simple approach to assessing the contribution of insulation to the price increases is developed and used with new estimates of agricultural distortions to assess its contribution to the price spikes in 1972-74 and 2006-08 for rice and wheat. The analysis suggests that 45 percent of the increase in rice prices in 2006-08, and 30 percent of the increase in wheat prices, was due to insulating behavior. One sign of progress since 1972-74 was a substantial reduction in the extent of price-insulating behavior by the industrial countries. This provides little stabilizing benefit in the rice market because countries not classifying themselves at the World Trade Organization as developing account for only 3 percent of world rice consumption. But it does offer some benefit for the wheat market where non-developing countries account for 27 percent of consumption
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  • 49
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel International Trade and Inclusive Growth
    Kurzfassung: This note provides two analytical frameworks for understanding the role of trade in promoting inclusive growth in developing economies. A working definition of inclusive growth focuses on long-term, sustained growth associated with productivity growth and employment opportunities for broad portions of households and firms within countries. International integration can promote inclusive growth when workers and firms are able to adjust to enter into growing economic activities and adopt technologies availed through international trade. The frameworks described in this note build on simple household and firm choice models, which require only basic knowledge of development economics. The discussion highlights how these frameworks can help analysts focus on research and policy questions related to the impacts of international trade across the distribution of households and firms within countries. It also discusses publicly available data sets that can be used to explore some aspects of inclusive growth. In addition, the note highlights important caveats that need to be acknowledged by analysts and discusses avenues for future research, which needs to be part and parcel of the inclusive growth agenda
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  • 50
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Large devaluations, foreign direct investment and exports
    Kurzfassung: One side-effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was the resurgence of a debate over exchange rates. The conventional wisdom dictates that real-exchange rate adjustments are needed in order to bring about changes in trade balances across countries. However, the literature on the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and currency under-valuations on exports is surprisingly ambiguous. This note explores for the first time the potential role of foreign direct investment as an intermediate variable in the process of trade adjustment after large real-exchange rate changes. Real-exchange rate devaluations might result in increases in foreign direct investment inflows, as investors can take advantage of changes in the foreign-currency value of domestic assets. If so, the response of exports will depend to some extent on the nature of such foreign direct investment inflows, with inflows motivated by "horizontal" foreign direct investment associated with negligible changes in export growth after devaluation. The author utilizes quarterly data on real effective exchange rates, foreign direct investment inflows and exports to explore the effects of large devaluations (defined as the largest observed quarterly real effective exchange rate devaluation) on foreign direct investment and exports from 1990 to 2010. The admittedly speculative evidence suggests that there were heterogeneous experiences regarding the timing and magnitude of subsequent changes in foreign direct investment and exports, but on average foreign direct investment inflows tended to precede export surges within two year horizons
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  • 51
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Arezki, Rabah The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices
    Kurzfassung: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain
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  • 52
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Krueger/Schiff/Valdes Revisited
    Kurzfassung: A study of distortions to agricultural incentives in 18 developing countries during 1960-84, by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes (1988; 1991), found that policies in most of those developing countries were directly or indirectly harming their farmers. Since the mid-1980s there has been a substantial amount of policy reform and opening up of many developing countries, and indicators of that progress have been made available recently by a new study that has compiled estimates for a much larger sample of developing countries and for as many years as possible since 1955. The new study also covers Europe’s transition economies and comparable estimates for high-income countries, thereby covering more than 90 percent of world agricultural output and employment. This paper summarizes the methodology used in the new study (pointing out similarities and differences with those used by the OECD and by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes), compares a synopsis of the indicators from Krueger, Schiff and Valdes and the new study for the period to 1984, summarizes the changing extent of price distortions across countries and commodities globally since then, and concludes by evaluating the degree of distortion reduction over the years since 1984 compared with how much still remains, according to the results of a global economy wide model
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  • 53
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth
    Kurzfassung: The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting - more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year - and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports, appear to be important sources of export growth. In fact, the smallest exporting firms experienced the fastest growth in their export values. Some of these results are compared with those from other countries that have been examined in related literature
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  • 54
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Trade barrier volatility and domestic price stabilization
    Kurzfassung: National barriers to trade are often varied to insulate domestic markets from international price variability, especially following a sudden spike. This paper explores the extent of that behavior by governments in the case of agricultural products, particularly food staples whose prices have spiked three times over the past four decades. It does so using new annual estimates since 1955 of agricultural price distortions in 75 countries, updated to 2008. Responses by food importers to upward price spikes are shown to be as substantial as those by food exporters, thereby weakening the domestic price-stabilizing effect of intervention by exporters. They also add to the transfer of welfare to food-surplus from food-deficit countries-the opposite of what is usually thought of when considering inter-sector trade retaliation. Phasing down World Trade Organization-bound import tariffs toward their applied rates would help reduce the legal opportunities for food-deficit countries to raise their import restrictions when international prices slump. To date there is no parallel discipline in the World Trade Organization that limits increases in export restrictions when prices spike upward, however. Bringing such discipline through new World Trade Organization rules could help alleviate the extent to which government responses to exogenous price spikes exacerbate those spikes
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  • 55
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Croser, Johanna Agricultural Distortions in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Kurzfassung: For decades, agricultural price and trade policies in Sub-Saharan Africa have hampered farmers’ contributions to economic growth and poverty reduction. Although there has been much policy reform over the past two decades, the injections of agricultural development funding, together with ongoing regional and global trade negotiations, have brought distortionary policies under the spotlight once again. A key question asked of those policies is: How much are they still reducing national economic welfare and trade? Economy-wide models are able to address that question, but they are not available for many poor countries. Even where they are, typically they apply to just one particular previous year and so are unable to provide trends in effects over time. This paper provides a partial-equilibrium alternative to economy-wide modeling, by drawing on a modification of so-called trade restrictiveness indexes to provide theoretically precise indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural policy distortions to producer and consumer prices over the past half-century. The authors generate time series of country level indexes, as well as Africa-wide aggregates. They also provide annual commodity market indexes for the region, and a sense of the relative importance of the key policy instruments used
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  • 56
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Nelgen, Signe How do governments respond to food price spikes?
    Kurzfassung: Food prices in international markets spiked upward in 2008, doubling or more in a matter of months. Evidence is still being compiled on policy responses over the following two years, but lessons can be learned from the price spike in 1973, the magnitude and speed of which were similar to those experienced around the 2008 spike. In developing countries, policy responses to the earlier spike lowered the (negative) nominal assistance coefficient for agriculture by one-third between 1972 and 1974 before it was returned to the same level by 1976. That was twice the extent of the fall and recovery of the (positive) nominal assistance coefficient for high-income countries. However, the trade and welfare effects of those changes were much less for developing than high-income countries, suggesting the dispersion of distortion rates among farm industries decreased in developing countries. The adjustments were virtually all due to suspension and then reinstatement of import restrictions, with changes in export taxation by developing countries playing an additional (but minor) role during 1972-74. This beggar-thy-neighbor dimension of each government’s food policies is worrying because it reduces the role that trade between nations can play in bringing stability to the world’s food markets. More effort appears to be needed before a multilateral agreement to desist can be reached
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  • 57
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Klinger, Bailey Export Discoveries, Diversification and Barriers To Entry
    Kurzfassung: The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development has grown rapidly in recent years, partly due to the surprising finding that diversification rises with gross domestic product per capita up to a certain point. Export diversification along the extensive margin is inextricable from the introduction of new export products. The authors test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the introduction of new exports - export discoveries - under the assumption that the intensive and extensive margins of exports are correlated within broad country-industry groups. Econometric evidence from panel-data techniques that are appropriate for count data (the number of discoveries) suggests that discoveries within countries and industries rise with the growth of exports along the intensive margin (relative to the growth of non-export gross domestic product) but the magnitude of this partial correlation increases with domestic barriers to entry and with customs delays in exporting. However, the magnification effect of barriers to entry appears to be less significant as a determinant of total within-country export discoveries. This is consistent with inter-industry and within-country spillovers related to export discoveries, implying that barriers to entry enhance the effect of export growth on discoveries within country-industries but total discoveries might be unaffected by barriers to entry
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  • 58
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Croser, Johanna Changing Contributions of Different Agricultural Policy Instruments To Global Reductions in Trade and Welfare
    Kurzfassung: Trade negotiators and policy advisors are keen to know the relative contribution of different farm policy instruments to international trade and economic welfare. Nominal rates of assistance or producer support estimates are incomplete indicators, especially when (especially in developing countries) some commodities are taxed and others are subsidized, in which case positive contributions can offset negative contributions. This paper develops and estimates a new set of more-satisfactory indicators to examine the relative contribution of different farm policy instruments to reductions in agricultural trade and welfare, drawing on recent literature on trade restrictiveness indexes and a recently compiled database on distortions to agricultural prices for 75 developing and high-income countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Results confirm earlier findings that border taxes are the dominant instrument affecting global trade and welfare, but they also suggest declines in export taxes contributed nearly as much as cuts in import protection to global welfare gains from agricultural policy reforms since the 1980s
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  • 59
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Microeconomic consequences and macroeconomic causes of foreign direct investment in southern African economies
    Kurzfassung: The causes and consequences of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries remains a subject of debate among researchers and policymakers alike. The authors use international data and a new micro-data set of firms in thirteen Southern African Developing Countries (SADCs) to investigate the benefits and determinants of FDI in this region. FDI appears to have facilitated local development in the SADC region. Foreign firms tend to perform better than domestic firms, tend to be larger, are located in richer and better-governed countries and in countries with more competitive financial intermediaries, and they are more likely to export than domestic firms. They also exhibit positive spillover effects to domestic firms. Relying on a standard model to predict the country-level FDI inflows per capita, the authors find that SADC is attracting their expected level of FDI inflows, at least relative to its income level, human capital, demographic structure, institutions, and economic track record. There are some differences between SADC and the rest of the world in FDI behavior: in SADC, the income level is less important and openness more so. The authors use two comparison groups to compare with SADC to shed light on why other regions have attracted more FDI per capita than SADC. The factors that explain SADC’s low FDI inflows are economic fundamentals (e.g., previous growth rates, average income, phone density, and the adult share of population)
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  • 60
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Croser, Johanna Novel indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural distortions in OECD countries
    Kurzfassung: Agricultural markets in OECD countries have long been highly distorted by government policies. Traditional weighted average aggregates of the price distortions involved, such as producer and consumer support estimates can be poor indicators of the trade restrictiveness and economic welfare losses associated with them, especially if a country's support estimates vary a lot across the product range. Certainly estimates of trade and welfare effects of price supports can be obtained from sector or economy-wide models using price elasticity estimates, but the results can be contentious if there is no consensus on what model specification and elasticity parameters to use. This paper shows that, if there is a willingness to accept simple assumptions about elasticities, it is possible to generate indicators of the welfare and trade restrictiveness of agricultural policies using no more than the price and quantity data needed to generate producer and consumer support estimates. These new indexes thus provide an attractive supplement to the current policy monitoring regime developed by the OECD Secretariat
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  • 61
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 0821373080 , 0821373099 , 9780821373088 , 9780821373095
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (xxviii, 331 pages) , illustrations , 23 cm
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Latin American development forum series
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 337.8051
    Schlagwort(e): China Foreign economic relations ; India Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations
    Anmerkung: Includes bibliographical references and index
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  • 62
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Ausgabe: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Cusolito, Ana P Technology Adoption and Factor Proportions in Open Economies
    Kurzfassung: Theories of international trade assume that all countries use similar and exogenous technologies in the production of any good. This paper relaxes this assumption. The marriage of literatures on biased technical change and trade yields a tractable theory, which predicts that differences in factor endowments and intellectual property rights bias technical change toward particular factor intensities, and thus unit factor input requirements can vary across economies. Using data on net exports of a single industry, computers, intellectual property rights and factor endowments for 73 countries during 1980-2000, the paper shows that once technological choices are considered, countries with different factor endowments can become net exporters of the same product
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  • 63
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The global database developed as an integral part of the World Bank's research project on Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, which is publicly available, provides around 30,000 estimates of nominal rates assistance to agricultural industries (NRAs) and associated consumer tax equivalents for 75 countries that together account for between 90 and 95 percent of the world's population, farmers, agricultural output and total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). They also account for more than 85 percent of farm production and employment in each of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the transition economies of Europe and Central Asia as well as all Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. More than 70 products are included (an average of 11 per country), which represents around 70 percent of the gross value of agricultural production in each of the focus countries, and just under two-thirds of global farm production valued at undistorted prices over the period covered. Not all countries had data for all of the entire 1955-2007 period, but the average number of years covered is 41 per country. This paper provides details of the coverage of the database. It also summarizes the distributions of the NRAs by showing two sets of Box plots for 1955-84 and 1985-2007, one set for various regions of the world, the other for all the covered products for each focus country
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  • 64
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This chapter begins with a brief summary of the long history of national distortions to agricultural markets. It then outlines the methodology used to generate annual indicators of the extent of government interventions in markets, details of which are provided in Anderson and appendix A. A description of the economies under study and their economic growth and structural changes over recent decades is then briefly presented as a preface to the main section of the chapter, in which the nominal rates of assistance and consumer tax equivalents (NRA and CTE) estimates are summarized across regions and over the decades since the 1950s. These estimates are discussed in far more detail in the regional chapters that follow. A summary is also provided of an additional set of indicators of agricultural price distortions presented in chapter eleven that are based on the trade restrictiveness index first developed by Anderson and Neary (2005). In chapter twelve the focus shifts from countries to commodities, and all the various distortion indicators are used to provide a sense of how distorted are each of the key farm commodity markets globally. Then chapter thirteen uses the study's NRA and CTE estimates to provide a new set of results from a global economy-wide model that attempts to quantify the impacts on global markets, net farm incomes and welfare of the reforms since the early 1980s and of the policies still in place as of 2004. The chapter concludes by drawing on the lessons learned to speculate on the prospects for further reducing the disarray in world agricultural markets
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  • 65
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Despite reforms over the past quarter-century, world agricultural markets remain highly distorted by government policies. Traditional indicators of those price distortions such as the nominal rate of assistance and consumer tax equivalent provide measures of the degree of intervention, but they can be misleading as indicators of the true effects of those policies. By drawing on recent theoretical literature that provides indicators of the trade- and welfare-reducing effects of price and trade policies, this paper develops more-satisfactory indexes for capturing distortions to agricultural incentives. It then exploits the agricultural distortion database recently compiled by the World Bank to generate estimates of them for both developing and high-income countries over the past half century, based on a sample of 75 countries that together account for all but one-tenth of the world's population, gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural production. While they are still only partial equilibrium measures, they provide a much better approximation of the true trade and welfare effects of sectoral policies without needing a formal model of global markets or even price elasticity estimates
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  • 66
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The volume on agricultural price distortions, inequality and poverty begins with a global study that uses the World Bank's linkage model to examine the economic impacts in various countries, regions and the world as a whole of agricultural and trade policies as of 2004. It does so by shocking that model with the removal of all agricultural price-distorting domestic and border policies with, and without, the removal of trade policies affecting all other goods. That pair of shocks is also employed in another global study in that volume to examine the inequality and poverty implications of those price-distorting policies for more than 100 countries. Then for ten national studies reported in that volume, the Linkage model again is used, but only to provide an exogenous set of shocks to the national economy wide model employed by the authors of each developing country case study. The effects of that shock on a national economy are then compared with the effects of own-country liberalization using the same national model and the same agricultural protection rates for that country as in the global Linkage model. In this appendix the authors describe the main assumptions adopted to generate the border price and export demand shocks from agricultural and trade policy reforms by the rest of the world, and how that is communicated to the national models
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  • 67
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and poverty elasticity's approach. It addresses two questions: to what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US
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  • 68
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This paper summarizes a new database that sheds light on the impact of trade-related policy developments over the past half century on distortions to agricultural incentives and thus also to consumer prices for food in 75 countries spanning the per capita income spectrum. Price support policies of advanced economies hurt not only domestic consumers and exporters of other products but also foreign producers and traders of farm products, and they reduce national and global economic welfare. On the other hand, the governments of many developing countries have directly taxed their farmers over the past half-century, both directly (e.g., export taxes) and also indirectly via overvaluing their currency and restricting imports of manufactures. Thus the price incentives facing farmers in many developing countries have been depressed by both own-country and other countries' agricultural price and international trade policies. The authors summarize these and realted stylized facts that can be drawn from a new World Bank database that is worthy of the attention of political economy theorists, historians and econometricians. These indicators can be helpful in addressing such questions as the following: where is there still a policy bias against agricultural production? To what extent has there been overshooting in the sense that some developing-country food producers are now being protected from import competition along the lines of the examples of earlier-industrializing Europe and Japan? What are the political economy forces behind the more-successful reformers, and how do they compare with those in less-successful countries where major distortions in agricultural incentives remain? And what explains the pattern of distortions across not only countries but also industries and in the choice of support or tax instruments within the agricultural sector of each country?
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  • 69
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions affecting agriculture in developing countries, particularly by cuts to agricultural export taxes and by some reductions in government assistance to agriculture in high-income countries, but international trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. This paper summarizes a series of empirical studies that focus on the effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade for poverty and inequality, especially in developing countries. To obtain different insights into the various impacts, two global studies are undertaken using the World Bank's Linkage model, one multi-country study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and ten country case studies are also included, each using a national economy-wide model. The Linkage model results suggest that liberalization will reduce international inequality, largely by boosting farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and will reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the GTAP model for a sample of 15 countries, and the ten stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue
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  • 70
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: During the 1960s and 1970s most developing countries imposed anti-agricultural policies, while many high-income countries restricted agricultural imports and subsidized their farmers. Both sets of policies inhibited economic growth and poverty alleviation in developing countries, while doing little to assist small farmers in high-income countries. Since the 1980s, however, many developing countries began to reduce the anti-agricultural bias of sectoral policies, and from the early 1990s the European Union began to move away from price supports to more-direct forms of farm income payments. This paper summarizes a forthcoming book that seeks to explain this evolving pattern of distortions to incentives conceptually and econometrically by making use of new political economy theory and a new globally comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of the changing extent of annual distortions over the past half-century. The distortion estimates involve more than 70 products that cover around 70 percent of the value of agricultural output in each of 75 countries that together account for over 90 percent of the global economy, and they expose the contribution of the various policy instruments (both farm and non-farm) to the net distortion to farmer incentives. Such a widespread coverage of countries, products, years and policy instruments has allowed this collection of studies to test a wide range of hypotheses suggested by the new political economy literature, including the importance of institutions. As a set it sheds much new light on the underlying forces that have affected incentives facing farmers in the course of national and global economic and political development, and hence on how those distortions might change in the future - or be changed by concerted actions to offset political pressures from traditionally powerful vested interests
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  • 71
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The regional books that provided detailed estimates of distortion in developing economies are all country focused. While they include commodity details for their particular country, they are not able to provide an overview for developing countries or high-income countries as a group, or for the world as a whole. This paper seeks to fill this gap. The paper begins by describing the overall project's coverage of 30 major commodities and their importance in regional and global agricultural production and trade. It then summarizes the nominal rates of assistance and consumer tax equivalents for twelve key covered products, together with their gross subsidy/tax equivalents in constant dollars. The paper then examines seven largely non-traded food staples that are nonetheless important food items for poor people in low-income countries. Even though those commodities are only a small share of global production and exports of farm products, they can be crucial to the food security of large segments of developing country societies. The agricultural distortions database lends itself to placing the policies affecting (or ignoring) those products in a broader perspective. The final part of the paper provides another new perspective on the project's database. It seeks to shed light on how relatively distorted are the various commodity markets from the viewpoint of global trade or welfare restrictiveness. This analysis draws on the theory outlined in the previous chapter, but switches the focus from countries to products
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  • 72
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: In a recent survey of European economic growth since 1950, Crafts and Toniolo (2008) conclude that incentive structures are a crucial explanator of comparative growth rates of the economies of east and west Europe. Pre-empting that, a 2006 report on trade performance and policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia included as one of its key recommendations the need to reduce the mean and variance of the tariff equivalents of trade barriers, and in particular to reduce unilaterally the policy regimes' anti-export bias, especially in countries exporting primary products (Broadman 2006). To progress such reform in Europe's transition economies efficiently and effectively, and to see how recent policies line up with those of the European Union (EU), requires better information on the extent of reform during the past two decades and of current policy influences on incentives within and between sectors. Immediately prior to their transition to market economies, policies in the region greatly distorted producer and consumer incentives, especially for agricultural products. Those distortions have been reduced substantially in several countries, but large variations remain across the region and distortions appear to be growing again in some countries. Now is thus an opportune time to examine how policies affecting agriculture are evolving in this region, including as part of the adjustment to EU accession for ten of the transition economies in the region
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  • 73
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies Revisited
    Kurzfassung: The number of national export promotion agencies has tripled over the past two decades. Although more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. The agencies were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's export promotion agencies and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. The results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. The identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as export promotion agencies are concerned, small is beautiful
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  • 74
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This working paper summarizes the annual estimates, for each of the world's main high-income countries, of key distortion indicators defined in Anderson et al. (2008), and provides some summary statistics for the group's estimates. It begins with tables for the countries of Western Europe, followed by Japan, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Shorter versions for subsets of countries are reproduced also as Appendixes in Anderson, Lattimore, Lloyd and MacLaren (2008), Gardner (2008), Honma and Hayami (2008), and Josling (2008). Four tables are provided for each country: (a) the nominal rate of assistance to individual farm products covered in the study and their weighted average, using as weights production valued at undistorted prices; (b) the relative rate of assistance to producers of agricultural (relative to non-agricultural) tradable, again using as weights production valued at undistorted prices, and the component parts of the Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) calculation; (c) the weights themselves for individual covered farm products and for the residual non-covered group of products, shown as percentages and so they sum to 100 percent; and (d) the trade status of each covered product each year. In the case of the European Union (EU) countries of Western Europe, the trade status is assumed to be that of the EU membership in any given year, since the Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) for each product is assumed to be the same for each EU member (with the membership growing progressively from initially 6 to 9 (from 1973), 12 (from 1986), and 15 (from 1995). The average NRAs for all covered products differ across EU member countries though, because of their different weights for each product in their national value of agricultural production
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  • 75
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This chapter begins with a brief summary of economic growth and structural changes in the region since the 1950s and of agricultural and other economic policy developments as they affected the farm sector at the time of and in various stages after independence from colonial powers. The chapter then summarizes estimates of the nominal rate of assistance (NRA) and the relative rate of assistance (RRA) to farmers delivered by national farm and nonfarm policies over the past several decades, as well as the impact of these policies on the consumer prices of farm products, using the project's methodology (Anderson et al. 2008). The final sections point to what the author have learned and draw out implications of the findings, including for poverty and inequality and for possible future directions of policies affecting agricultural incentives in Africa
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  • 76
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (45 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Measuring Distortions To Agricultural Incentives, Revisited
    Schlagwort(e): Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Incentives ; Agricultural markets ; Agricultural policy ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export ; Farm ; Farm products ; Farmers ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Import tariffs ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Quantitative restrictions
    Kurzfassung: Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004
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  • 77
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (69 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym The Challenge of Reducing International Trade And Migration Barriers
    RVK:
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Air pollution ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic benefits ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Government subsidies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade policies ; Trade policy ; WTO ; World Trade Organization ; Agriculture ; Air pollution ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic benefits ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Government subsidies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade policies ; Trade policy ; WTO ; World Trade Organization ; Agriculture ; Air pollution ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic benefits ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Government subsidies ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade policies ; Trade policy ; WTO ; World Trade Organization
    Kurzfassung: While barriers to trade in most goods and some services including capital flows have been reduced considerably over the past two decades, many remain. Such policies harm most the economies imposing them, but the worst of the merchandise barriers (in agriculture and textiles) are particularly harmful to the world's poorest people, as are barriers to worker migration across borders. This paper focuses on how costly those anti-poor trade policies are, and examines possible strategies to reduce remaining distortions. Two opportunities in particular are addressed: completing the Doha Development Agenda process at the World Trade Organization (WTO), and freeing up the international movement of workers. A review of the economic benefits and adjustment costs associated with these opportunities provides the foundation to undertake benefit/cost analysis required to rank this set of opportunities against those aimed at addressing the world's other key challenges as part of the Copenhagen Consensus project. The paper concludes with key caveats and suggests that taking up these opportunities could generate huge social benefit/cost ratios that are considerably higher than the direct economic ones quantified in this study, even without factoring in their contribution to alleviating several of the other challenges identified by that project, including malnutrition, disease, poor education and air pollution
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  • 78
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: In 1990, Australia and New Zealand were ranked around 25th and 37th in terms of Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, having been the highest-income countries in the world one hundred years earlier. Those countries relatively poor economic growth performance over that long period contrasts markedly with that of the past 15 years, when these two economies out-performed most other high-income countries. This difference in growth performance is due to major economic policy reforms during the past two to three decades, both at and behind the border. The report provide new evidence on the extent of governmental distortions to agricultural incentives in particular in the Australian and New Zealand economies since the late 1940s, both directly due to agricultural policies per se and indirectly (and negatively) through protection to manufacturing
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  • 79
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This study on Latin America is based on a sample of eight countries, comprising the big four economies of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico; Colombia and Ecuador, two of the poorest South American tropical countries; the Dominican Republic, the largest Caribbean economy; and Nicaragua, the poorest country in Central America. Together, in 2000-04, these countries accounted for 78 percent of the region's population, 80 percent of the region's agricultural value added, and 84 percent of the total gross domestic product (GDP) of Latin America. The key characteristics of these economies-which account for only 4.5 percent of worldwide Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but 7.7 percent of agricultural value added and more than 10 percent of agricultural and food exports. The table reveals the considerable diversity within the region in terms of stages of development, relative resource endowments, comparative advantages and, hence, trade specialization, and the incidence of poverty and income inequality. This means that these countries represent a rich sample for comparative study. Nicaragua's per capita income is only one-seventh the global average, while the incomes of Colombia and Ecuador are one-third of this average. By contrast, the per capita incomes of Argentina and Chile average just one-eighth below and that of Mexico is one eighth above the global average. Only Argentina, Brazil, and Nicaragua are well above the global average in endowments of agricultural land per capita; the Dominican Republic and Ecuador are well below this average; and Chile, Colombia, and Mexico are a little less than one-third above the average
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  • 80
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This working paper summarizes annual estimates of covered product Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRAs), for each of the focus economies of Europe's transition economies, their key distortion indicators defined in Anderson et al. (2008), and provides some summary statistics for the region's estimates. Four tables are provided for each country: (a) the NRA to individual farm products covered in the study and their weighted average, using as weights production valued at undistorted prices; (b) the RRA to producers of agricultural tradable, again using as weights production valued at undistorted prices, and the component parts of the RRA calculation; (c) the weights themselves for individual covered farm products and for the residual non-covered group of products, shown as percentages and so they sum to 100 percent; and (d) the trade status of each covered product each year. The NRA in the case of a product having just its output price distorted by government policies is the percentage by which the domestic producer price exceeds the price that would prevail under free markets, that is, the border price appropriately adjusted to account for differences in product quality, transport costs, processing costs, etc. A negative value indicates the domestic price is below that comparable border price
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  • 81
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This paper outlines the methodological issues associated with the task of measuring that actual delivered direct protection or taxation to individual agricultural industries, as well as the direct protection or anti-protection to non-agricultural sectors. It begins with a guide to what elements in principle could be measured. There are two key purposes of the distortion estimates being generated by this project are: 1) to provide a long annual time series of indicators showing the extent to which price incentives faced by farmers and food consumers have been distorted directly and indirectly by own-government policies in all major developing, transition and high-income countries, and hence for the world as a whole; and 2) to attribute the price distortion estimates for each farm product to specific border or domestic policy measures, so they can serve as inputs into various types of partial and general equilibrium economic models for estimating the effects of those various policies on such things as national and international agricultural markets, farm value added, income inequality, poverty, and national, regional and global welfare
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  • 82
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This chapter begins with a brief summary of economic growth and structural changes in the region since the 1950s and of agricultural and other economic policies as they affected agriculture before and after the various reforms, and in several cases fundamental regime changes, of the past half-century. It then summarizes new estimates of the nominal rate of assistance (NRA) and the relative rate of assistance (RRA) to farmers delivered by national farm and nonfarm policies over the past several decades (depending on data availability), and of those policies' impacts on consumer prices of farm products. Both farmer assistance and consumer taxation is negative in periods where there is an anti-agricultural, pro-urban consumer bias in a country's policy regime. The final sections summarize what the author have learned and draw out implications of the findings, including for poverty and inequality and for possible future directions of policies affecting agricultural incentives in this part of Asia
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  • 83
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Distortions To Agricultural Incentives In Australia Since World War II
    RVK:
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; GdP ; GdP Per Capita ; Growth Rate ; Income ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Per Capita Income ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Social Protections and Labor ; Total Factor Productivity ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Agriculture ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; GdP ; GdP Per Capita ; Growth Rate ; Income ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Per Capita Income ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Social Protections and Labor ; Total Factor Productivity ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Agriculture ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; GdP ; GdP Per Capita ; Growth Rate ; Income ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Per Capita Income ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Social Protections and Labor ; Total Factor Productivity ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy
    Kurzfassung: Australia's lackluster economic growth performance in the first four decades following World War II was in part due to an anti-trade, anti-primary sector bias in government assistance policies. This paper provides new annual estimates of the extent of those biases since 1946 and their gradual phase-out during the past two decades. In doing so it reveals that the timing of the sector assistance cuts was such as sometimes to improve but sometimes to worsen the distortions to incentives faced by farmers. The changes increased the variation of assistance rates within agriculture during the 1950s and 1960s, reducing the welfare contribution of those programs in that period. Although the assistance pattern within agriculture appears not to have been strongly biased against exporters, its reform has coincided with a substantial increase in the export orientation of many farm industries. The overall pattern for Australia is contrasted with that revealed by comparable new estimates for other high-income countries
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  • 84
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro-urban bias in own-country policies as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies, which reduce national and global economic welfare and contribute to global inequality and poverty, have been undergoing reform since the 1980s. Using the linkage model of the global economy and modifications to the pre-release of version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) protection database for 2004, this paper seeks to compare the effect of those reforms to date with those that would come from removing remaining agricultural and trade policies. Two sets of results are thus presented: one showing the effects of policy reforms between 1980-84 and 2004, the other showing what the removal of remaining distortions as of 2004 could be. Both sets of results indicate improvements in the real value of agricultural output and exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in most developing country regions despite the adverse effect on the international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. Landowners in those high-income countries still offering their farmers price supports could readily afford to compensate them from the benefits of removing remaining agricultural protectionism
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  • 85
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Specialization And Adjustment During The Growth of China And India
    Schlagwort(e): Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American economies. The authors construct Vollrath's measure of revealed comparative advantage by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This measure accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the revealed comparative advantage of Latin America and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of Latin A-with the exception of Mexico-has been moving in opposite direction of the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India's growth since 1990
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  • 86
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel The Growth of China And India In World Trade
    Schlagwort(e): Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy
    Kurzfassung: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China's and to a large extent India's growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited
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  • 87
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (#N/A p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Product Innovation By Incumbent Firms In Developing Economies
    Kurzfassung: A model of firm innovation illustrates the effects of the threat of imitation and product varieties on a representative firm's decision to invest in research and development to produce new product varieties. The model motivates two empirical questions: (1) Is research and development partially correlated with firms' propensity to introduce new products or product innovation in developing countries? (2) Do trade policies and the national investment climate affect firms' propensity for product innovation? The econometric evidence suggests that the answers are yes and yes, but the investment climate affects product innovation in a manner that is consistent with the presence of market failures and state capture. National trade-policy distortions appear to reduce the probability of product innovation, and the density of exporting firms at the national level also seems to positively affect the propensity to introduce new products by individual firms. The paper discusses some policy implications
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  • 88
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Cravino, Javier Substitution Between Foreign Capital In China, India, The Rest of The World, And Latin America
    Schlagwort(e): Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web
    Kurzfassung: This paper explores the impact of the emergence of China and India on foreign capital stocks in other economies. Using bilateral data from 1990-2003 and drawing from the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprises to control for fundamental determinants of foreign capital stocks across countries, the evidence suggests that the impact of foreign capital in China and India on other countries' foreign capital stocks has been positive. This finding is robust to the use of ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators; to the inclusion of time and country-pair fixed effects; to the inclusion of natural-resource endowments; and to the use of the sum of foreign capital stocks in Hong Kong (China) and mainland China instead of using only the latter's foreign capital stocks. There is surprisingly weak evidence of substitution in manufacturing foreign capital stocks away from Central America and Mexico in favor of China, and from the Southern Cone countries to India, but these findings are not robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques
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  • 89
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Cravino, Javier Foreign Direct Investment In Latin America During The Emergence of China And India
    Schlagwort(e): Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics
    Kurzfassung: In spite of the growing concerns about foreign direct investment being diverted from Latin America to China and India, the best available data show that Latin America has performed relatively well since 1997. Foreign capital stocks from OECD countries and the United States in particular in China and India are still far from those in the largest Latin American economies. The evidence shows that foreign capital stocks in China increased more than in Latin America during 1990-1997, but not as much since 1997. In fact, Latin America has actually performed better than China since 1997 given its lack of relative growth. The growth of foreign capital stocks in India was more stable than in China. Nonetheless, after controlling for shocks emanating from the source countries and bilateral distance between source and host countries, this paper finds a significant change in foreign capital stocks relative to China between 1990 and 1997, but no change relative to India
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  • 90
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies
    Schlagwort(e): Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy ; Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy ; Asymmetric Information ; Budgetary Support ; Capacity Building ; Consumer Preferences ; Country Strategy and Performance ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Diminishing Returns ; E-Business ; Economic Justification ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Export Competitiveness ; Exports ; Externalities ; Failures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marketing ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Trade Policy
    Kurzfassung: The number of national export promotion agencies (EPAs) has tripled over the past two decades. While more countries have made them part of their national export strategy, studies have criticized their efficiency in developing countries. Partly in reaction to these critiques, EPAs have been retooled (see ITC 1998 or 2000, for example). This paper studies the impact of existing EPAs and their strategies based on a new data set covering 104 industrial and developing countries. Results suggest that on average they have a strong and statistically significant impact on exports. For each
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  • 91
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (35 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Reducing Distortions To Agricultural Incentives
    Schlagwort(e): Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy ; Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy ; Agribusiness ; Agriculture ; Agriculture ; Comparative Advantage ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Human Capital ; Import Barriers ; Incentives ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Protectionism ; Public Sector Development ; Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems ; Trade Policy
    Kurzfassung: Most of the world's poorest people depend on farming for their livelihood. Earnings from farming in low-income countries are depressed partly due to a pro-urban bias in own-country policies, and partly because richer countries (including some developing countries) favor their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic growth and add to inequality and poverty in developing countries. Acknowledgement of that since the 1980s has given rise to greater pressures for reform, both internal and external. Over the past two decades numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions, while many high-income countries continue with protectionist policies that harm developing country exports of farm products. Recent research suggests that the agricultural protectionist policies of high-income countries reduce welfare in many developing countries. Most of those studies also suggest that full global liberalization of merchandise trade would raise value added in agriculture in developing country regions, and that much of the benefit from global reform would come not just from reform in high-income countries but also from liberalization among developing countries, including in many cases own-country reform. These findings raise three key questions that are addressed in this paper: To what extent have the reforms of the past two decades succeeded in reducing distortions to agricultural incentives? Do current policy distortions still discriminate against farmers in low-income countries? And what are the prospects for further reform in the next decade or so?
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  • 92
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Agricultural Trade ; Agricultural Workers ; Agriculture ; GDP ; High-Income Countries ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population
    Kurzfassung: This compilation of data is prepared as a companion to the Bank's research project on distortions to agricultural incentives. Its purpose is to provide comparative basic economic and trade indicators for the countries involved as case studies in that project. The project is global in coverage, and is sub-divided into five groups: Africa, Asia, Europe and Central Asia's Transition Economies, Latin America and the Caribbean, and high-income countries. The present compendium is divided into seven main sections. The first one includes data on high income countries which are compared with three aggregates for developing countries. Sections two through five focuses indeed specifically on one of the four regional groups and compare data for the case study countries with various aggregates of studied and not studied countries. Due to the very limited data availability several countries have not been included in the compendium. Finally, section six and seven include estimates of trade distortions, and sectoral shares of value added and household expenditures for all the studied countries and several regional aggregates
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  • 93
    Sprache: Spanisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (302 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: Este informe brinda una evaluacion preliminar del acuerdo de libre comercio celebrado con America Central y Republica Dominicana (DR-CAFTA, por sus siglas en ingles), con especial atencion a tres temas principales: 1) los beneficios comerciales y no comerciales esperados, 2) las acciones que los paises de America Central necesitan adoptar para aprovechar las nuevas oportunidades y 3) la identificacion de los grupos de la poblacion que pueden requerir asistencia para adaptarse a un entorno mas competitivo. El documento coloca al DR-CAFTA en el contexto historico de las reformas economicas que se han implementado en los paises centroamericanos desde finales de la decada de 1980 y luego lo situa en el contexto actual. Asimismo, examina varios analisis que evaluan los impactos potenciales del DR-CAFTA en los paises de America Central e identifica las poblaciones que se veran posiblemente afectadas por la eliminacion de barreras al comercio en los productos agricolas sensibles, analizando las mejores opciones de politicas para ayudar a los grupos vulnerables. El informe tambien examina las pruebas asociadas con las implicaciones macroeconomicas principales del DR-CAFTA estudiando el potencial de perdida de ingreso y el efecto que podria tener sobre los patrones de sincronizacion del ciclo comercial y las pruebas de cada uno de los paises centroamericanos en las areas de facilitacion del comercio, reformas institucionales y normativas, ademas de en innovacion y educacion, con el proposito de identificar las principales prioridades de la agenda complementaria del DR-CAFTA
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  • 94
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Anderson, Kym Global Impacts Of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios On Poverty
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare ; Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare ; Agriculture ; Base Year ; Benchmark ; Constant Returns To Scale ; Consumers ; Debt Markets ; Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Free Trade ; Goods ; Inequality ; International Economics & Trade ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Trade ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Real Income ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Reforms ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Uruguay Round ; Utility ; WTO ; Wages ; Welfare
    Kurzfassung: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform
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  • 95
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Ianchovichina, Elena Long-Run Impacts of China's WTO Accession on Farm-Nonfarm Income Inequality and Rural Poverty
    Schlagwort(e): Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization ; Agricultural Policy ; Agriculture ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Growth ; Economic Theory and Research ; Farm Households ; Farm Incomes ; Farm Products ; Farm Sector ; Farm Work ; Farmers ; Food Insecurity ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Income ; Income Inequality ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Livestock and Animal Husbandry ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poor ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Development Knowledge ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; World Trade Organization
    Kurzfassung: Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its rural people by way of greater import competition in its agricultural markets. Anderson, Huang, and Ianchovichina explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm products could rise. Also, the removal of restrictions on exports of textiles and clothing could boost town and village enterprises, so demand for unskilled labor for nonfarm work in rural areas may grow even if demand for farm labor in aggregate falls. New estimates, from the global economywide numerical simulation model known as GTAP, of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession are drawn on to examine empirically the factor reward implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm-nonfarm and Western-Eastern income inequality may well rise in China but rural-urban income inequality need not. The authors conclude with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network—is part of a larger effort in the network to assess the impact of China's WTO accession
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  • 96
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Hoekman, Bernard Developing Country Agriculture and the New Trade Agenda
    Schlagwort(e): Agribusiness ; Agricultural Production ; Agricultural Protection ; Agriculture ; Competition ; Debt Markets ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Regulations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Resources ; Rural Communities ; Social Protections and Labor ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Taxation ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade Organization ; Agribusiness ; Agricultural Production ; Agricultural Protection ; Agriculture ; Competition ; Debt Markets ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Environmental Regulations ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Income ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Policies ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Quotas ; Resources ; Rural Communities ; Social Protections and Labor ; Standards ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Taxation ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade Organization
    Kurzfassung: May 1999 - In the new round of World Trade Organization talks expected in late 1999, negotiations about access to agricultural and services markets should be given top priority, but new trade agenda issues should also be discussed. Including new trade agenda issues would increase market discipline's role in the allocation of resources in agriculture and would encourage nonagricultural groups with interests in the new issues to take part in the round, counterbalancing forces favoring agricultural protection. A new round of World Trade Organization negotiations on agriculture, services, and perhaps other issues is expected in late 1999. To what extent should those negotiations include new trade agenda items aimed at ensuring that domestic regulatory policies do not discriminate against foreign suppliers? Hoekman and Anderson argue that negotiations about market access should be given priority, as the potential welfare gains from liberalizing access to agricultural (and services) markets are still huge, but new issues should be included too. Including new trade agenda issues would increase the role of market discipline in the allocation of resources in agriculture and would encourage nonagricultural groups with interests in the new issues to take part in the round, counterbalancing forces in favor of agricultural protection. They also argue, however, that rule-making efforts to accommodate the new issues should be de-linked from negotiations about access to agricultural markets, because the issues affect activity in all sectors. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze options and priorities for developing countries in the run-up to a new round of WTO negotiations. Bernard Hoekman may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or kanderson@economics.adelaide.edu.au
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