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  • Lederman, Daniel  (58)
  • Christiaensen, Luc  (46)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (104)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • London : Routledge
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (224 pages)
    Series Statement: Africa Development Forum
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Employment Challenges ; Female Migrants ; Government ; Migration ; Urban Development ; Urban Markets
    Abstract: Research on migration and urban development in Africa has primarily focused on larger cities and rural-to-urban migration. However, 97 percent of Africa's urban centers have fewer than 300,000 inhabitants, and a sizable share of urban migrants come from other urban areas. A more holistic and dynamic perspective, incorporating migration flows along the full urban hierarchy, as well as urban-urban migrants, is needed to better understand and leverage migration for urban development. Migrants, Markets, and Mayors: Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa's Secondary Cities draws on demographic data, research literature, key informant interviews, and empirical research to better understand how migrants in Africa's secondary cities fare in urban labor markets, how they affect aggregate urban productivity, and how mayors can leverage migrants' potential to the benefit of all. It explores these questions across countries and four urban case settings: Jijiga in Ethiopia, Jinja in Uganda, and Jendouba and Kairouan in Tunisia. Although mayors in secondary cities often see migrants as a burden to their cities' labor markets and a threat to development, the report finds that migrants contribute increasingly less to urban population growth and that they usually strengthen the resident labor force. The report also finds that labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for nonmigrants. Africa's secondary cities are well placed to leverage migration, but evidence-based policies are needed to manage the growth and development of land and labor markets. The report reviews policy options that mayors can take to strengthen the financial, technical, and planning capacity of secondary cities and better leverage migration to benefit migrants and nonmigrants alike. "Much of the literature on migration to cities examines migration in a nonspatial fashion or focuses on rural-urban migration to the largest, most visible cities. This volume fills a gap by focusing on migration to secondary cities, coming up with a compelling set of facts. Overall, the volume is very well done and sets a benchmark for future research." J. Vernon Henderson, School Professor of Economic Geography, London School of Economics
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda Stages of Diversification Redux
    Keywords: Development Trajectories ; Economic Concentration ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Resource Poor Countries ; Resource Rich Countries
    Abstract: The existing literature on development and economic diversification finds an inverted-U function between these two variables, whereby economies diversify as they grow up to a point, after which they start specializing. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the stages of diversification over the course of development during the past 57 years. The paper emphasizes the trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor countries, an issue that has not been covered by the extant literature. In addition, the paper studies the stages of diversification across three dimensions, namely employment, value-added, and exports. Additionally, it examines the relationship for services. Non-parametric estimations suggest a U-shaped curve between measures of economic concentration and per capita income levels, which is in line with existing evidence. However, these patterns are mainly driven by between-country rather than within-country variation, a finding that had been ignored in the existing literature. Diversification patterns also differ across resource-rich and resource-poor countries: Employment and value added in resource-rich countries are on average more concentrated at low levels of development while in resource poor countries, they are more concentrated at high levels of development. In contrast, at all levels of development, exports are more concentrated in resource-rich countries
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Keywords: Agri-Food Jobs ; Agricultural Pollution ; Agriculture Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Industry ; Food Industry Pollution ; Green Issues ; Green Transition Jobs ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Industry ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Youth Employment
    Abstract: The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R and D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R and D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture's current USD 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Arias, Francisco Plant Closings and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Mexico
    Keywords: Difference in Difference ; Education ; Education and Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Gender ; Gender and Economic Policy ; Gender and Employment ; Job Displacement ; Job Loss Impact by Education ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Wages ; Wages, Compensation and Benefits
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of -7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from -7.5 to -4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cull, Robert Digital Payments and the COVID-19 Shock: The Role of Preexisting Conditions in Banking, Infrastructure, Human Capabilities, and Digital Regulation
    Keywords: Covid-19 Lockdown ; Covid-19 Shock ; Digital Divide ; Digital Infrastructure ; Digital Payment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Inclusion ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies
    Abstract: Treating data collected pre- and post-COVID-19 as a quasi-experiment, this paper examines the importance of presumed enablers and safeguards in driving the observed expansion of digital payments and digital financial inclusion. The analysis interacts drivers of digital payment usage with a country-specific proxy of the severity of the COVID-19 shock, leveraging variation in both the drivers and the quasi-treatment (the COVID-19 shock) to identify the parameters. Although regulation of banks and digital economic activity were correlated with digital payments before and during the pandemic, the capabilities of users and connectivity (to electricity, the internet, and mobile telephony) were responsible for increased use of digital financial services in response to the shock. An interpretation is that governments and the private sector were able to overcome underdeveloped banking systems and weak regulation of the digital economy, but only where there was adequate digital infrastructure, connectivity, and a high share of the population that understood and could make use of digital payments
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Adjustments ; Covid-19 ; Currency Depreciations ; Growth ; Inflation ; Jobs ; Labor Markets ; MENA ; Middle East ; Middle East and North Africa ; North Africa ; Shocks ; Terms of Trade ; Wages
    Abstract: Covid-19. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commodity price volatility. The rise of global inflation and interest rates. Currency depreciations among indebted middle-income economies. And now, natural disasters. As a sequence of events, the consequences can be both tragic and long-lasting. After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region's labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. Will these shocks permanently scar the hard-working people of MENA? The report answers this question by highlighting the trade-offs facing labor markets when facing macroeconomic shocks. A critical trade-off pertains to the loss of jobs versus decreases in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages and discusses policy options to support the most vulnerable
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aihounton, Ghislain Does Agricultural Intensification Pay?
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Farm Performance ; Food Security ; Intensification ; Rice Farmers ; Rural Transformaiton ; Rural Transformation ; Smallholder Labor Productivity ; Specialization
    Abstract: Modern inputs and mechanization are promoted across Africa to raise smallholder labor productivity and broker the structural transformation. Yet, adoption has remained low and the implications for returns to labor and labor allocation remain poorly understood. This paper explores the effects of different intensification packages on farm performance, market orientation, and food security using data from lowland rice farmers in Cote d'Ivoire. Employing a multinomial treatment effect model, the findings reveal that intensification increases land and labor productivity, especially when agro-chemicals and mechanized land preparation are combined. Returns to labor double to triple, inducing specialization and greater market orientation as well as greater food security, while productively releasing agricultural labor for other activities. Labor in agriculture becomes more waged. The gender balance remains the same. Child labor input does not decrease. The findings call for greater attention to labor productivity and confirm that agricultural intensification can pay and enhance rural transformation
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gatti, Roberta Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
    Keywords: Data Transparency ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Outlook ; Forecast Error ; GDP Growth Forecast ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Optimism ; Statistical Capacity
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth-are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank's forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund's January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country's Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Abstract: Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic-induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich. Moreover, food insecurity in MENA has been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Recovery
    Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region's growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Impacts ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Lower Silesia. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, while the number of people directly and indirectly affected by coal mine closures in Lower Silesia (~5,500) is relatively small compared to the total regional labor force (lessthan1%), affected workers are heavily concentrated geographically. Second, workers in heavily affected municipalities have lower foundational (but better technical) skills than their regional and national counterparts, and already operate in lagging local economies. Third, while eager to work, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that they are averse to both, commuting and relocating for work, even though less so than in Silesia and Wielkopolska, the two other regions. Together this suggests that there are important welfare and political economic benefits to adequate job creation locally. The paper further advances a data-driven viable-job-matching tool specifically tailored to the Polish labor market and illustrates how it could be used to assess the potential of local labor markets and future investments to absorb the coal-affected workers accounting for their skills profile, re/upskilling needs and job attribute preferences
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Data Opacity ; Economic Growth ; Forecasting Growth ; Inadequate Data System ; Inflation ; Oil ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Pandemic ; Recovery
    Abstract: The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises-first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine-have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk-from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region's development failings-including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Employment and Unemployment ; Food Security ; Labor Markets ; Rural Development ; Rural Labor Markets ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Africa's rural population continues to expand rapidly and labor productivity in agriculture and many rural off farm activities remains low. This paper uses the lens of a dual economy and the associated patterns of agricultural, rural, and structural transformation to review the evolution of Africa's rural employment and its inclusiveness. Many African countries still find themselves in an early stage of the agricultural and rural transformation. Given smaller sectoral productivity gaps than commonly assumed, greater size effects and larger spillovers, investment in agriculture and the rural off-farm economy remains warranted to broker the transition to more and more productive rural employment. The key policy questions thus become how best to invest in the agri-food system (on and increasingly also off the farm) and how best to generate demand for nonagricultural goods and services which rural households can competitively produce. Informing these choices continues to present a major research agenda, with digitization, the imperative of greening and intra-African liberalization raising many unarticulated and undocumented opportunities and challenges
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Yuting Fan, Rachel Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Coronavirus Economic Recovery ; COVID-19 Recovery ; Debt Financed Public Spending ; Developing Country Debt ; Disaster Recovery ; Economic Impact Of Covid Pandemic ; Economic Recover In Developing Countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Government Debt ; Pandemic Economic Impact ; Public Debt ; Public Debt Restructuring ; Public Sector Development ; Safety Nets and Transfers ; Social Protection ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Public debt in developing economies rose at a fast clip during 2020-21, at least partly due to the onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman opined in early 2021 that "fighting covid is like fighting a war." This paper argues that the Covid-19 pandemic shares many traits with natural disasters, except for the global nature of the pandemic shock. This paper empirically examines trends in debt and economic growth around the onset of three types of calamities, namely natural disasters, armed conflicts, and external-debt distress in developing countries. The estimations provide quantitative estimates of differences in growth and debt trends in economies suffering episodes of calamities relative to the trends observed in economies not experiencing calamities. The paper finds that debt and growth evolve quite differently depending on the type of calamity. The evidence indicates that public debt and output growth tend to rise faster after natural disasters than in the counterfactual scenario without disasters, thus illustrating how debt-financed fiscal expansions can help economic reconstruction. The findings are different for episodes of debt distress defined as periods of debt restructuring, however. Economies experiencing debt distress are associated with growth trends that are on average below the growth rates of unaffected economies prior to and after the beginning of an episode of debt restructuring
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (94 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: The argument that digitalization fosters economic activity has been strengthened by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Because digital technologies are general-purpose technologies that are usable across a wide variety of economic activities, the gains from achieving universal coverage of digital services are likely to be large and shared throughout each economy. However, the Middle East and North Africa region suffers from a "digital paradox": the region's population uses social media more than expected for its level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but uses the internet or other digital tools to make payments less than expected. The Upside of Digital for the Middle East and North Africa: How Digital Technology Adoption Can Accelerate Growth and Create Jobs presents evidence that the socioeconomic gains of digitalizing the economies of the region are huge: GDP per capita could rise by more than 40 percent; manufacturing revenue per unit of factors of production could increase by 37 percent; employment in manufacturing could rise by 7 percent; tourist arrivals could rise by 70 percent, creating jobs in the hospitality sector; long-term unemployment rates could fall to negligible levels; and female labor force participation could double to more than 40 percent. To reap these gains, universal access to digital services is crucial, as is their widespread use for economic purposes. The book explores how fast the region could approach universal coverage, whether targeting the rollout of digital infrastructure services makes a difference, and what is needed to increase the use of digital payment tools. The authors find that targeting underserved populations and areas can accelerate the achievement of universal access, while fostering competition and improving the functioning of financial and telecommunications sectors can encourage the adoption of digital technologies. In addition, building societal trust in the government and in related institutions such as banks and financial services is critical for fostering the increased use of digital payment tools
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Coal and Lignite ; Employment and Unemployment ; Energy ; Environment ; Green Issues ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Silesia. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, the number of jobs directly linked to coal-mining in Silesia is substantial, with 72,000 employees in the mining conglomerates, and an additional 17,000 providing goods and services to the mines. Second, coal-related employment is heavily concentrated geographically: as much as 40 percent of the population of Bierunsko-Iedzinski is employed directly and indirectly in the mining sector, and 80 percent of the mining conglomerates' contract value goes to subcontractors within a 20km radius of the mines. Third, the coal sector is highly integrated among a few large firms: 28 percent of the indirect workforce is employed by 10 subcontractors. Fourth, workers in the mining conglomerates have lower foundational (but better technical) skills than their regional and national counterparts, especially those with lower education. Finally, while eager to work, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that they are averse to both, commuting and relocating for work, even though less so than in Wielkopolska, yet more so that in Lower Silesia, the two other regions. Together this suggests that there are important welfare and political economic benefits to adequate job creation locally. The paper further advances a data-driven viable-job-matching tool specifically tailored to the Polish labor market and illustrates how it could be used to assess the potential of local labor markets and future investments to absorb the coal-affected workers accounting for their skills profile, re/upskilling needs, and job attribute preferences
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Coal ; Coal and Lignite ; Employment and Unemployment ; Energy ; Energy Sector ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Wielkopolska, which is most advanced in the transition out of coal. Finding viable job transitions is of enormous importance. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, even though limited from a regional perspective (4,000 workers), affected jobs are highly concentrated in a few already lagging and depopulating municipalities. Second, while coal-related workers are similarly skilled as other workers in Wielkopolska, non-coal related workers in the at-risk municipalities are substantially less skilled, exposing them to potential displacement effects. Finally, while ready to work and to be re-skilled, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that all workers are averse both to commuting and relocating for work, even more so than in Silesia and Lower Silesia. Complementary social protection and employment support will be needed, and the paper suggests some policy options based on international experience. The paper concludes by illustrating how a big-data driven job-matching tool, calibrated on the Polish labor market, could be used to assist caseworkers in identifying "viable-job-transition-pathways" for affected workers as well as to help policymakers identify reskilling needs and attract investments
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Cattaneo, Andrea Economic and Social Development along the Urban-Rural Continuum: New Opportunities to Inform Policy
    Keywords: Access To Education ; Access To Health Services ; Communities and Human Settlements ; National Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Peri-Urban ; Peri-Urban Communities ; Poverty Analysis ; Rural Urban Linkages ; Rural-Urban Linkage ; Territorial Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Abstract: The economic and social development of nations relies on their population having physical access to services and employment opportunities. For the vast majority of the 3.4 billion people living in rural locations, this largely depends on their access to urban centers of different sizes. Similarly, urban centers depend on their rural hinterlands. Building on the literature on functional areas/territories and the rural-urban continuum as well as insights from central place theory, this review paper advances the notion of catchment areas differentiated along an urban-to-rural continuum to capture these urban-rural interconnections. It further shows how a new, publicly available data set operationalizing this concept can shed new light on policy making across a series of development fields, including institutions and governance, urbanization and food systems, welfare and poverty, and access to health and education services. Together the insights support a more geographically nuanced perspective on development
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Current Account ; Economic Growth ; External Balances ; Fiscal Balance ; Oil ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Exporters ; Oil Importers ; Oil Prices ; Productivity
    Abstract: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID This report examines the region's economic prospects in 2021, forecasting that the recovery will be both tenuous and uneven as per capita GDP level stays below pre-pandemic levels. COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region's public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic. Indeed, a decade of lackluster economic reforms left a legacy of large public sectors and high public debt that effectively crowded out investments in social services such as public health. This edition points out that the region's health systems were not only ill-prepared for the pandemic, but suffered from over-confidence, as authorities painted an overly optimistic picture in self-assessments of health system preparedness. Going forward, governments must improve data transparency for public health and undertake reforms to remedy historical underinvestment in public health systems
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Schneider, Kate Assessing the Affordability of Nutrient-Adequate Diets
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Diet Cost ; Food Affordability ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Price ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Meal Sharing ; Nutrient Adequacy ; Nutrition ; Poverty and Health ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The affordability of nutritious diets is increasingly used as a metric of how well a food system provides access to nutritious diets for all. Recent work on least-cost diets has focused on individuals, while most food and anti-poverty programs and policies target the household level. Members within households have differing nutritional needs, presenting the methodological question: how should the cost of nutritious diets be estimated at the household level This study develops bounds on the cost, affordability, and seasonal variation of least-cost diets for whole households, illustrated with the example of Malawi. When intrahousehold sharing is not possible to observe, the bounded approach provides insights into the range of the cost and affordability, and the extent to which the cost may vary seasonally. The results reveal that when meals are shared, ignoring demographic diversity within households greatly underestimates the affordability of adequate diets
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment ; Labor Markets ; Labor Mobility ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Governance and Management ; Urban Labor Market ; Urbanization
    Abstract: In our rapidly urbanizing world, mayors often see migrants as a burden to their city's labor market and a threat to its development. Drawing on national household surveys and four secondary city case studies in Africa, this study finds that migrants, being younger, better educated and/or complementary to the resident labor force, usually strengthen the urban labor force. In secondary cities, labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for residents. Migrants also contribute increasingly less to urban population growth. Secondary cities thus appear well placed to leverage migration. This requires good urban management that develops land and labor markets, prepares for growth and benefits everyone, migrants as well as residents. Migrant specific interventions are warranted when divisions between natives and migrants are deep. Strengthening the financial, technical, and planning capacity of towns to better integrate migrants is part and parcel of the good job's agenda
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Middle East and North Africa Economic Update
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture's role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system (AFS) also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions both have shaped and have been shaped by these dynamics. Today, a digital revolution is taking hold, affecting agricultural labor and skill demands. In this process, societies evolve from having a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor, typically met largely by foreign agricultural wage workers. Yet, anti-immigration sentiments are flying high in migrant-destination countries, and robots in the fields and packing plants offer an alternative. Agricultural trade may be similarly challenged. In the world's poorest countries, particularly in Africa, labor productivity in agriculture remains at historically low levels. So, what can the role of agriculture as a source of employment be in the future? This viewpoint elaborates on these trends and reviews a number of policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes and ramp up in agricultural education and extension
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: This report analyzes the consequences for the labor force of Western Macedonia's (Greece) decarbonization as part of Europe's new Green Deal. Already, the region records the highest unemployment rate of the country (27 percent in 2018). A survey of contractors suggests that about 16,000 jobs could potentially be affected by the closure of the mines (about 4,500 directly in coal and power production and another 11,000-11,500 indirectly supplying goods and services). It mainly concerns older and less educated, but medium-skilled workers. Many do not expect much of a future in Western Macedonia, with most of the better-skilled seeing themselves move to other regions. But much will also depend on the coal transition path chosen, including the timing and labor intensity of the power plant decommissioning and land reclamation plans, as well as those of the new alternative activities promoted. Timely consultations with the workers affected will also be critical
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (48 pages)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ana Paula, Ana Paula The Effects of Digital-Technology Adoption on Productivity and Factor Demand: Firm-Level Evidence from Developing Countries
    Abstract: This paper presents firm-level estimates of revenue-based total factor productivity premiums of manufacturing firms adopting digital technology in 82 developing economies over 2002-19. The paper estimates productivity using the control function approach and assuming an endogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, which is a function of multiple firm-choice variables. It estimates the effects of digital technology adoption, learning by exporting, and managerial experience on revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The results reject the 0 hypothesis of an exogenous revenue-based total factor productivity process, in favor of one in which digital technology adoption, along with the other choice variables, affects revenue-based total factor productivity and factor demand. The estimated premiums are positive for 67.3 (email adoption), 54.6 (website adoption), 59.4 (learning by exporting), and 60.6 (managerial experience) percent of the sample. The probability-adjusted median (log) revenue-based total factor productivity premium associated with email adoption is 1.6 percent and that of website adoption is 2.2 percent, with the latter being higher than the premiums corresponding to exporting and managerial experience. On average, changes in digital technology adoption, email, and website are labor and capital augmenting. The paper also explores the role of complementarities among the firm choice variables
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: A thriving region until the early 1990s, Slavonia, the eastern region of Croatia, has been confronted with stagnation and decline, ageing and outmigration as well as impoverishment ever since. This followed Croatia's homeland war of 1991-1995, with Slavonia one of the frontlines, economic restructuring of its state-led economy during the 1990s and 2000s and the global economic crisis of the late 2000s. More recently, after Croatia's EU accession in 2013 and coinciding with the economic upswing since 2014 in Croatia and the EU, Slavonia's labor market has started to tighten, with registered vacancies now exceeding the number of job seekers for highly educated as well as some unskilled and semi-skilled occupations. However, inactivity and unemployment remain high. In 2017, the share of the working-age population in work was only 51 percent, 10 percentage points below the rest of Croatia (61 percent) and 17 percentage points below the 2017 EU28 average. A legacy of war, limited availability of care services, and especially lower education levels explain an important part of Slavonia's much higher inactivity and unemployment. On the demand side, labor productivity in Slavonia's firms is systematically lower than in the rest of the country (except in agriculture and forestry), also consistent with Slavonia's sizeablewage gap. This, together with general disenchantment of the Slavonian population with the economicand business environment, has prompted outmigration. At the same time, a small number of firms alsooutperform their sectoral competitors elsewhere in Croatia, signaling Slavonia's potential.Looking ahead, private sector job creation remains a top priority, especially focusing on Slavonia's lower educated, who make up the bulk of the unemployed and inactive. This especially requires a reduction in the regulatory burden and an increase in Slavonian firms' competitiveness, which will also help to close the substantial wage gap with the rest of Croatia. Given the large share of its population in agriculture and forestry-related activities (close to 30 percent), Program Slavonia's current focus on agriculture and forestry is clearly warranted. With Slavonia's longstanding history and labor force experience in manufacturing and the rising number of vacancies in this sector, so is attention to manufacturing
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: With an estimated 724 million extreme poor people living in developing countries, and the world's demographics bifurcating into an older north and a younger south, there are substantial economic incentives and benefits for people to migrate. There are also important market and regulatory failures that constrain mobility and reduce the net benefits of migration. This paper reviews the recent literature and proposes a conceptual framework to better integrate and coordinate policies for addressing the different market and regulatory failures. The paper advances five types of interventions in need of particular attention in terms of design, implementation and evaluation; namely, 1) active labor market programs that serve local, regional and foreign markets; 2) remittances and investment subsidies to promote job creation and labor productivity growth; 3) social insurance programs that cover all jobs and facilitate labor mobility; 4) labor taxes to internalize the social costs of migration in receiving regions; and 5) more flexible, private sector driven schemes to regulate the flow of migrants and minimize irregular migration
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: This paper develops the concept of 'action space' as the range of possible destinations to which a migrant can realistically move at a given point in time and, intimately linked to this, the set of possible livelihoods at destination. It shows how this space expands and contracts over time through 'cumulative causation.' Such a dynamic framework allows for appreciating the role of secondary towns in rural-urban migration and poverty reduction. Secondary towns occupy a unique middle ground between semi-subsistence agriculture and the capitalistic city, between what is close by and familiar and what is much further away and unknown. By opening the horizons of the (poorer) rural population and facilitating navigation of the nonfarm economy, secondary towns allow a broader base of the poor population to become physically, economically, and socially mobile. Secondary towns therefore have great potential as vehicles for inclusive growth and poverty reduction in urbanizing developing countries. These are the insights emerging from the in-depth life history accounts of 75 purposively selected rural-urban migrants from rural Kagera, in Tanzania
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: For a long time, the urbanization and development discourse has coincided with a focus on economic growth and big cities. Yet, much of the world's new urbanization is taking place in smaller urban entities (towns), and the composition of urbanization may well bear on the speed of poverty reduction. This paper reviews the latter question within the context of Tanzania. It starts from the observation that migration to towns contributed much more to poverty reduction than migration to cities because many more (poor) rural migrants ended up in Tanzania's towns than its cities, despite larger welfare gains from moving to the city. Drawing on the findings from a series of studies, looking at this from different angles (theoretical and empirical, quantitative and qualitative), the paper shows how towns are better at enabling the rural poor to access off-farm employment and exit poverty because they are more nearby. It concludes with a call for greater consideration of the role of towns in accelerating Africa's poverty reduction
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  • 31
    ISBN: 9781464809668
    Language: French
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (184 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    Keywords: French Translation ; Conflicts ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Chronic Poverty
    Abstract: L'idee que l'on se fait de l'Afrique a radicalement change. Encore considere comme le continent des guerres, des famines et de la pauvrete chronique a la fin des annees 90, le continent africain est maintenant evoque sous l'angle de l'Afrique qui monte et du XXIe siecle africain. Deux decennies de croissance economique sans precedent devaient en principe ameliorer sensiblement le bien-etre des populations africaines. Il est toutefois difficile de dire si c'est effectivement le cas en raison de la mediocre qualite des donnees, de la nature du processus de croissance (s'agissant notamment du role des ressources naturelles), des conflits qui sevissent dans une partie la region et de la forte expansion demographique. Poverty in a Rising Africa decrit les problemes de donnees et analyse systematiquement les informations disponibles sur la pauvrete et les inegalites dans une perspective tant monetaire que non monetaire. Le premier chapitre evalue la disponibilite et la qualite des donnees necessaires pour cerner la pauvrete monetaire, examine les mecanismes de gouvernance et les processus politiques qui sous-tendent la production statistique et propose quelques methodes pour combler le deficit de donnees. Le chapitre 2 evalue la robustesse des estimations sur la pauvrete en Afrique et brosse a grands traits le profil de ce fleau. Selon les auteurs, la reduction de la pauvrete en Afrique est peut-etre legerement superieure a ce que les estimations traditionnelles portent a croire. Pour autant, meme les estimations les plus optimistes indiquent que davantage de personnes vivaient dans la pauvrete en 2012 qu'en 1990. Le troisieme chapitre considere la pauvrete dans une perspective elargie en prenant en compte les dimensions non monetaires du bien-etre, telles que l'education, la sante et la liberte, en utilisant la methode d'Amartya Sen (1985) axee sur les notions de capabilities et de functionings. Des progres ont certes ete accomplis dans plusieurs de ces domaines, mais les niveaux de resultats restent obstinement bas. Enfin, le chapitre 4 examine les donnees relatives aux inegalites en Afrique en analysant non seulement les types d'inegalites monetaires, mais aussi d'autres aspects tels que l'inegalite des chances, la mobilite intergenerationnelle dans le travail et l'education et l'extreme richesse
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ingelaere, Bert Why Secondary Towns Can Be Important for Poverty Reduction - A Migrant's Perspective
    Abstract: This paper develops the concept of "action space" as the range of possible destinations to which a migrant can realistically move at a given point in time and, intimately linked to this, the set of possible livelihoods at destination. It shows how this space expands and contracts over time through "cumulative causation." Such a dynamic framework allows for appreciating the role of secondary towns in rural-urban migration and poverty reduction. Secondary towns occupy a unique middle ground between semi-subsistence agriculture and the capitalistic city, between what is close by and familiar and what is much further away and unknown. By opening the horizons of the (poorer) rural population and facilitating navigation of the nonfarm economy, secondary towns allow a broader base of the poor population to become physically, economically, and socially mobile. Secondary towns therefore have great potential as vehicles for inclusive growth and poverty reduction in urbanizing developing countries. These are the insights emerging from the in-depth life history accounts of 75 purposively selected rural-urban migrants from rural Kagera, in Tanzania
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN
    Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and gross domestic product per capita of economies from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The increase in gross domestic product per capita that these economies experienced during 1970-2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class. The impact of the rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on the countries' initial level of gross domestic product per capita. In the majority of these countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to gross domestic product per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth, based on the values of the countries' gross domestic product per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of gross domestic product per capita, a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth in gross domestic product per capita. The paper shows that human capital accumulation is an important channel through which a rise of the middle class affects economic growth
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This report by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank studies the region's fiscal policies. After reviewing LAC's growth performance, Chapter 1 provides an accounting of its financing needs during the 21st Century to understand how such a diverse region ended up with fiscal deficits across the board in 2016. Chapter 2 goes back to the 1960s and assesses the cyclical properties of fiscal policies. LAC, like most developing countries and in contrast with most developed economies, exhibited procyclical fiscal policies. Good news arrived in the 2000s: one in three economies became countercyclical, which helped improve credit ratings. Yet fiscal policy is complicated by our inability to know if current economic conditions are temporary or permanent. The report argues for a prudent stance that would err on the side of saving too much during upswings and perhaps borrowing too little during downturns
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  • 35
    ISBN: 9781464809781
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (196 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    Keywords: Labor Market Integration ; Regional Integration ; Trade Integration ; Economic Integration ; Stability
    Abstract: This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region's policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Barrett, Christopher B On the Structural Transformation of Rural Africa
    Abstract: From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464811371
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (190 p)
    Series Statement: Directions in Development - Agriculture and Rural Development
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Stylized facts set agendas and shape debates. In rapidly changing and data scarce environments, they also risk being ill-informed, outdated and misleading. So, following higher food prices since the 2008 world food crisis, robust economic growth and rapid urbanization, and climatic change, is conventional wisdom about African agriculture and rural livelihoods still accurate? Or is it more akin to myth than fact? The essays in "Agriculture in Africa" Telling Myths from Facts? aim to set the record straight. They exploit newly gathered, nationally representative, geo-referenced information at the household and plot level, from six African countries. In these new Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture, every aspect of farming and non-farming life is queried-from the plots farmers cultivate, the crops they grow, the harvest that is achieved, and the inputs they use, to all the other sources of income they rely on and the risks they face. Together the surveys cover more than 40 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. In all, sixteen conventional wisdoms are examined, relating to four themes: the extent of farmer's engagement in input, factor and product markets; the role of off-farm activities; the technology and farming systems used; and the risk environment farmers face. Some striking surprises, in true myth-busting fashion, emerge. And a number of new issues are also thrown up. The studies bring a more refined, empirically grounded understanding of the complex reality of African agriculture. They also confirm that investing in regular, nationally representative data collection yields high social returns
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Where to Create Jobs to Reduce Poverty: Cities Or Towns?
    Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question, this paper extends the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The analysis first derives the labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. Then sufficient statistics are developed for the policy decisions based on these parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long-running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, the paper shows that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Agriculture in Africa - Telling Myths from Facts: A Synthesis
    Abstract: Stylized facts drive research agendas and policy debates. Yet robust stylized facts are hard to come by, and when available, often outdated. In a special issue of Food Policy, 12 papers revisit conventional wisdom on African agriculture and its farmers' livelihoods using nationally representative surveys from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Initiative in six African countries. At times, the findings simply confirm the common understanding of the topic. But the studies also throw up several surprises, redirecting some policy debates while fine-tuning others. Overall, the project calls for more attention to checking and updating the common wisdom. This requires nationally representative data, and sufficient incentives among researchers and policy makers alike. Without well-grounded stylized facts, they can easily be profoundly misguided
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question the authors extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The authors first derive labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. The authors then develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Social Protection Study
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: After a decade of crisis and stellar economic growth over the past five years, Cote d'Ivoire has now set its sight on becoming an emerging economy. Improving prospects for productive employment will be essential for socially sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The "Cote d'Ivoire Jobs Diagnostic: Employment, Productivity, and Inclusion for Poverty Reduction" report provides a comprehensive and multi-sectoral empirical analysis of employment challenges and opportunities to inform strategies and policy actions in Cote d'Ivoire. The report aims to expand policy discussions on employment from a focus on the number of jobs and unemployment to a broader attention on the quality, productivity and inclusiveness of jobs. It makes the case for a jobs strategy with a sharper poverty lens that would focus on raising labor productivity in agriculture and informal off-farm employment to foster structural transformation, while, in parallel, pursuing longer-term goals of expanding the thin formal sector
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464810435
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (132 p)
    Series Statement: Directions in Development
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: Does economic size matter for economic development outcomes? If so are current policies adequately addressing the role of size in the development process? Using working age population as a proxy for country size, Open and Nimble, systematically analyzes what makes small economies unique. Small economies are not necessarily prone to underdevelopment and in fact can achieve very high income levels. Small economies, however, do tend to be highly open to both international trade and foreign direct investment, have highly specialized export structures, and have large government expenditures relative to their Gross Domestic Product. The export structures of small economies are concentrated in a few products or services and in a small number of export destinations. In turn, this export concentration is associated with terms of trade volatility, which combined with high exposure to international trade, implies that small economies tend to face more volatility on average as external volatility permeates national economic life. Yet small economies tend to compensate for their export concentration by being nimble in the sense of being able to change their production and export structure relatively quickly over time. Moreover, limited territory plays a role in shaping how economies are affected by natural disasters, even when the probability of facing such disasters is not necessarily higher among small than among large economies. The combination of large governments with macroeconomic volatility seems to be associated with low national savings rates in small economies. This combination could be a challenge for long-term growth if productivity growth and foreign investment do not compensate for low domestic savings. The book finishes with some thoughts on how policy makers can respond to these issues through coordinated investments and regional integration efforts, as well as fiscal policy reforms aimed at both increasing public savings and conducting countercyclical fiscal policies
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bravo-Ortega, Claudio Faraway or Nearby? Domestic and International Spillovers in Patenting and Product Innovation
    Abstract: The diffusion of knowledge plays a central role in endogenous growth theories. Simply put, in these models new knowledge can be generated from preexisting knowledge. In other words, existing knowledge is a pure public good, which can benefit any economic agent anywhere. More generally, endogenous growth theories rely on a broad set of assumptions that have not been tested sufficiently, especially for developing economies. The scope and nature of knowledge spillovers is, however, important for policy, because the presumed positive spillovers can justify government intervention (if the spillovers are localized) or laissez faire (if the spillovers are international). This paper empirically assesses the scope and direction of knowledge spillovers in national patenting and, separately, product innovation by firms. The first set of exercises tests whether the cumulative knowledge specifications of the knowledge production function can explain international patterns of patenting or whether own research and development is necessary to produce patents. The second set of exercises analyzes whether firm product-quality upgrading and the introduction of new products depend on product innovation within industries, within or across countries. The evidence supports the view that existing stocks of knowledge, domestic and foreign, enhance national innovation and entrepreneurship in the form of product innovation. More specifically, the evidence suggests that within-country and international knowledge spillovers are positive, but international spillovers can be negative for firms that are far from innovative firms in terms of productivity. The results depend on the concept of "distance" between countries and firms
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brambilla, Irene Exporters, Engineers, and Blue-Collar Workers
    Abstract: This paper investigates differences in the composition of employment between exporting and non-exporting firms. In particular, it asks whether exporting firms hire more engineers relative to blue-collar workers than non-exporting firms. In a stylized partial-equilibrium model, firms produce goods of varying quality and exporters tend to produce higher quality goods, which are intensive in engineers relative to blue-collar workers. Firms are heterogeneous and more productive firms become exporters and have a higher demand for engineers. The paper provides causal evidence in support of these theories using the Chilean Encuesta Nacional Industrial Anual, an annual census of manufacturing firms. The results from an instrumental variable estimator suggest that Chilean exporters indeed utilize a higher share of engineers over blue-collar workers
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Miller, Daniel C Prevalence, Economic Contribution, and Determinants of Trees on Farms across Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: Trees on farms are often overlooked in agricultural and natural resource research and policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper addresses this gap using data from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture in five countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Trees on farms are widespread. On average, one third of rural smallholders grow trees. They account for an average of 17 percent of total annual gross income for tree-growing households and 6 percent for all rural households. Gender, land and labor endowments, and especially forest proximity and national context are key determinants of on-farm tree adoption and management. These new, national-scale insights on the prevalence, economic contribution and determinants of trees on farms in Africa lay the basis for exploring the interaction of agriculture, on-farm tree cultivation, and forestry. This will improve our understanding of rural livelihood dynamics
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Bennett, Federico The Volatility of International Trade Flows in the 21st Century: Whose Fault Is It Anyway?
    Abstract: After investment, exports and imports are the most volatile components of aggregate demand within countries. Moreover, the volatility of growth and the volatility of trade flows tend to move together; they declined from the 1990s until 2009, followed by an increase since 2009. This paper explores the drivers of such movements in trade-flow volatility. The analysis decomposes trade growth into six components to study their contribution to the overall volatility of trade flows, and presents three findings. First, trade volatility is mostly explained by a factor common to all countries, country-specific factors, and changes in the gravity-related characteristics of a country's trading partners. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre-2009 decline in volatility and the post-2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a steady decline in the variance of country-specific factors. In contrast, the latter appears to be driven mainly by an increase in the volatility of factors common to all countries. Third, trade diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in trade volatility driven by country-specific factors, especially in developing countries
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gilbert, Christopher L Price Seasonality in Africa: Measurement and Extent
    Abstract: Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Economic Integration across Latin America: Evidence from Labor Markets, 1990-2013
    Abstract: Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labor markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labor markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labor market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labor markets within Mexico and within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labor market integration
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hakobyan, Shushanik Factor Endowments, Technology, Capital Mobility and the Sources of Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing
    Abstract: Using data on net exports and factor endowments for more than 100 countries, this paper studies the relationship between factor endowments and comparative advantage in 28 manufacturing sectors between 1975 and 2010. The authors allow for systematic technological differences across countries, including differences in factor intensities across countries with different ratios of skilled labor over unskilled labor. Capital seems to be a source of comparative disadvantage in manufacturing, and skilled labor is a source of comparative advantage in the global sample. However, skilled labor is a source of comparative disadvantage in economies with low human capital, whereas it is a source of comparative advantage in the sample of countries with high human capital. The authors attribute this heterogeneity to the rise of capital mobility across countries, particularly since the mid-1990s
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (50 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right : On the Impacts of Commodity Prices on Households (and Countries)
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact that one-time changes in commodity and other prices have on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The ata uncovers strong commodity dependence on both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities, and they often also depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity price shocks. The article explores these effects with a review of the relevant literature. The authors study consumption and income responses, labor market responses, and spillovers across sectors. The paper provides evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Secondary Towns and Poverty Reduction: Refocusing the Urbanization Agenda
    Abstract: This review is framed around the exploration of a central hypothesis: A shift in public investment toward secondary towns from big cities will improve poverty reduction performance. Of course the hypothesis raises many questions. What exactly is the dichotomy of secondary towns versus big cities? What is the evidence for the contribution of secondary towns versus cities to poverty reduction? What are the economic mechanisms for such a differential contribution and how does policy interact with them? The review finds preliminary evidence and arguments in support of the hypothesis, but the impacts of policy on poverty are quite complex even in simple settings, and the question of secondary towns and poverty reduction is an open area for research and policy analysis
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Semiannual Report
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This report, produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of the World Bank, examines LAC's challenges as the global economy settles to an equilibrium with lower growth and lower commodity prices. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the world economy and how it affects LAC's short and medium-term prospects. It argues that LAC suffered an external shock that shaped growth in recent years, and that the current global context is likely here to stay. Many LAC countries experienced significant depreciations which in principle should help adjust to the new equilibrium. The extent to which these depreciations facilitate a soft landing, however, depends on a number of factors. Chapter 2 explores the response of LAC's trade to the recent depreciations and the role it could play in facilitating a recovery. It examines if there are early signs of an export recovery and whether the region's increased dependence on commodity exports could hinder LAC's recovery
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  • 53
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Brueckner, Markus Effects of Income Inequality on Aggregate Output
    Abstract: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
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  • 54
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (256 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    Keywords: Spanish translation ; FDI ; Foreign direct investment ; Domestic savings ; Financial integration
    Abstract: Este reporte explora la restructuracion de la economia global ocasionada por el ascenso del Sur y destaca la transformacion en los patrones de integracion global de ALC y las consecuencias de esta transformacion en la dinamica del desarrollo de la region. En particular, se analiza de forma sistematica los aspectos concernientes al comercio y las finanzas internacionales, la macroeconomia y el mercado laboral latinoamericano
    Note: Description based on print version record
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Halliday, Timothy Tracking Wage Inequality Trends with Prices and Different Trade Models: Evidence from Mexico
    Abstract: Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexicos accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. The rise of inequality can be explained by the evolution of the relative price of skill-intensive goods relative to unskilled-intensive goods, but these prices flattened by 1999 and thus cannot explain the subsequent decline in wage inequality. An alternative trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model's predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the models simplicity, the model's predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell
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  • 56
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion and Firm Entry into and Survival in Export Markets
    Abstract: Surveys of export promotion agencies suggest that that they tend to focus on helping firms become exporters as a means to stimulate aggregate export growth. But the existing empirical evidence has paid little attention to the role of export promotion agencies in helping entry into exporting. This paper fills this gap with a panel of exporting and non-exporting firms from seven Latin American countries during the period 2006-2010. The results suggest that export promotion encourages exports mainly by helping firms enter into and survive in export markets. The impact on the intensive margin of exporting firms is not robust. This finding is consistent with export promotion helping reduce fixed rather than variable costs of exporting, which is to be expected if export promotion agencies help correct for market failures associated with information externalities
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Jedwab, Remi Demography, Urbanization and Development: Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push?
    Abstract: Communities & Human Settlements
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Latent Trade Diversification and its Relevance for Macroeconomic Stability
    Abstract: Poverty Reduction
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kaminski, Jonathan Seasonality in Local Food Markets and Consumption: Evidence from Tanzania
    Abstract: This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent; it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10 percent among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality from Africas development debate seems premature
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Palacios-Lopez, Amparo How Much of the Labor in African Agriculture is Provided by Women?
    Abstract: Communities & Human Settlements
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  • 61
    ISBN: 9781464803567
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (248 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    Series Statement: Latin America and Caribbean Studies
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Druckausg. Latin America and the rising South
    DDC: 332.098
    RVK:
    Keywords: Entwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftslage ; Lateinamerika ; Karibischer Raum ; Wirtschaftliche Integration ; Weltwirtschaft ; Sozioökonomischer Wandel ; Süden ; Emerging Market ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Außenhandel ; Finanzwirtschaft ; Investition ; domestic savings ; FDI ; Financial integration ; Foreign direct investment ; Global financial network ; Global trade network ; Global value chains ; Globalization ; International Economics and Trade ; Labor market dynamics ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Real exchange rate dynamics ; Rise of the south ; Trade Integration ; Trade structure ; Erde ; Lateinamerika
    Abstract: The world economy is not what it used to be twenty years ago. For most of the 20th century, the world economy was characterized by developed (North) countries acting as 'center' to a 'periphery' of developing (South) countries. However, the recent rise of developing economies suggests the need to go beyond this North-South dichotomy. This tectonic re-configuration of the global landscape has brought about significant changes to countries in the Latin America and Caribean (LAC) region. The time is ripe for an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and nature of LAC's external connections.This latest volume in the World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies series will focus on the implications of these trends for the economic development of LAC countries. In particular, trade, financial, macroeconomic, and sectoral shifts, as well as labor-market aspects will be systematically analyzed
    Note: Description based on print version record
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (58 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Artuç, Erhan The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Hondu
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Lederman, Daniel Export Shocks and the Volatility of Returns to Schooling: Evidence from Twelve Latin American Economies
    Abstract: This paper builds on previous studies to uncover evidence suggesting that cyclical fluctuations in returns to schooling are determined by fluctuations in foreign demand, which tend to be positively correlated with returns to schooling. The effec
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  • 64
    ISBN: 9781464802850
    Language: Spanish
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (178 p)
    Series Statement: Latin American Development Forum
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Abstract: El emprendimiento es un determinante fundamental del crecimiento y la creacion de empleo. Pese a que los emprendedores abundan en America Latina y el Caribe, las empresas de la region son mas pequenas y menos propensas a crecer e innovar que las de otras regiones. El crecimiento de la productividad lleva decadas siendo mediocre y el reciente period de auge de las materias primas no ha supuesto una excepcion. Asi pues, la presencia de emprendedores dinamicos sera necesaria para impulsar la creacion de puestos de trabajo de calidad y la aceleracion del crecimiento de la productividad en la region. En El emprendimiento en America Latina: muchas empresas y poca innovacion se estudia el panorama del emprendimiento en America Latina y el Caribe. El libro recurre a nuevas bases de datos que abordan cuestiones como la creacion de empresas, las dinamicas empresariales, las decisiones de exportar y el comportamiento de las corporaciones multinacionales y sintetiza los resultados de un analisis exhaustivo del estatus, las perspectivas y los retos del emprendimiento en la region. Asimismo, el libro suministra herramientas utiles e informacion para ayudar a los profesionales y responsables de las politicas a identificar los ambitos de las mismas que los gobiernos pueden explorar para impulsar la innovacion e incentivar el emprendimiento transformador con potencial de crecimiento elevado
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaminski, Jonathan Post-Harvest Loss in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: The 2007-2008 global food crisis has renewed interest in post-harvest loss, but estimates remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses self-reported measures from nationally representative household surveys in Malawi, Uganda, and Tanzania. Overall, on-farm post-harvest loss adds to 1.4-5.9 percent of the national maize harvest, substantially lower than the Food and Agriculture Organization's post-harvest handling and storage loss estimate for cereals, which is 8 percent. Post-harvest loss is concentrated among less than a fifth of households. It increases with humidity and temperature and declines with better market access, post-primary education, higher seasonal price differences, and possibly improved storage practices. Wider use of nationally representative surveys in studying post-harvest loss is called for
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Price is Not Always Right
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaminski, Jonathan The End of Seasonality?
    Abstract: This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase and increasing when they decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hollweg, Claire H Structural Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates. Together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross-country macro level on labor-market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. Data were collected from a variety of sources, including the World Bank World Development Indicators, the International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, and the International Labor Organization Key Indicators of the Labor Market. The resulting dataset covers up to 88 countries, the majority being developing, for 10 years on either side of structural reforms that took place between 1960 and 2001. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, the authors run fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor. Unlike related literature, the paper does not find conclusive evidence on unemployment. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Poverty Reduction during the Rural-Urban Transformation
    Abstract: As countries develop, they restructure away from agriculture and urbanize. But structural transformation and urbanization patterns differ substantially, with some countries fostering migration out of agriculture into rural off farm activities and secondary towns, and others undergoing rapid agglomeration in mega cities. Using cross-country panel data for developing countries spanning 1980-2004, the analysis in this paper finds that migration out of agriculture into the missing middle (the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns) yields more inclusive growth patterns and faster poverty reduction than agglomeration in mega cities. This suggests that patterns of urbanization deserve much more attention when striving for faster poverty reduction
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Fernandes, Ana M Export Entrepreneurship and Trade Structure in Latin America during Good and Bad Times
    Abstract: The authors use a new dataset on export transactions for a large set of Latin American and Caribbean and comparator countries to assess the extent of "export entrepreneurship" during periods of fast export growth (2005-2007) and depressed external demand (2008-2009). Export entrepreneurship is equated with the extensive margin of exports, namely the advent of new exporting firms, new export products, and new export market destinations. The main findings are: (1) annual exporter entry, exit, and survival rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are quite similar to what is observed in other countries, and entry rates across sectors are quite similar but survival rates appear to be highest in agriculture; (2) the relative size of entrants into export markets (relative to incumbents) tended to be lower for natural resource-abundant countries during 2005-2007, but less so during the crisis years of 2008-2009; (3) entry rates tend to be lower in sectors in which a country has revealed comparative advantage, however, exit rates and survival rates of new exporters are higher in those sectors; and (4) the low growth of exports during the global recession of 2008-2009 in Latin America and the Caribbean was due to lower growth in exports of incumbent firms' pre-existing products and destinations, while new products and destinations tended to attenuate the recession's effects. Overall, the data suggest that the Latin American and Caribbean region appears to be no less entrepreneurial in terms of the extensive margins of exports than comparator countries
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Urbanization and Poverty Reduction
    Keywords: Armutsbekämpfung ; Stadtentwicklung ; Stadt-Land-Beziehungen ; Ländliche Wirtschaft ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Urbanisierung ; Tansania
    Abstract: A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania during 1991/4-2010 shows that about one in two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one in seven exited poverty by migrating to a large city, although those moving to a city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (53 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Artuç, Erhan A Mapping of Labor Mobility Costs in Developing Countries
    Abstract: Estimates of labor mobility costs are needed to assess the responses of employment and wages to trade shocks when factor adjustment is costly. Available methods to estimate those costs rely on panel data, which are seldom available in developing countries. The authors propose a method to estimate mobility costs using readily obtainable data worldwide. The estimator matches the changes in observed sectoral employment allocations with the predicted allocations from a model of costly labor adjustment. This paper estimates a world map of labor mobility costs and uses those estimates to explore the response of labor markets to trade policy
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Edition: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arias, Javier Trade, Informal Employment and Labor Adjustment Costs
    Abstract: Informal employment is ubiquitous in developing countries, but few studies have estimated workers' switching costs between informal and formal employment. This paper builds on the empirical literature grounded in discrete choice models to estimate these costs. The results suggest that inter-industry labor mobility costs are large, but entry costs into informal employment are significantly lower than the costs of entry in formal employment. Simulations of labor-market adjustments caused by a trade-related fall in manufacturing goods prices indicate that the share of informally employed workers rises after liberalization, but this is due to entry into the labor market by previously idle labor
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Greening China's Rural Energy
    Abstract: Clean, safe energy for rural areas is an important component of green growth and sustainable development. Biogas could be an important contributor, if its record in reality lives up to its expected potential. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of biogas use by smallholder farmers in rural China, using data collected from 2,700 households in five provinces. The authors find that user satisfaction is high, and environmental and economic benefits appear tangible. There are strong indications of reduced use of wood and crop residues for fuel. Less time is spent on collecting fuel wood and cooking, which is especially beneficial to women. Adopters also save on fertilizers, because of the use of biogas residues. Moreover, problems with suspension of biogas use, whether due to technical or human factors, remained limited. However, few tangible benefits to respiratory health were detected. Overall, these findings are grounds for optimism about the potential for of smallholder biogas to contribute to more sustainable development, in China and beyond
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Hollweg, Claire H Monitoring Export Vulnerability to Changes in Growth Rates of Major Global Markets
    Abstract: Interest in assessing the impacts on developing countries of changes in major markets' economic performance has risen in tandem with global economic uncertainty over short- and medium-term growth prospects. This paper proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country's exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. The authors capture this sensitivity by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Furthermore, export vulnerability is computed separately for commodities and differentiated products. This methodology is applied to six developing countries, one from each World Bank region, selected to be otherwise similar yet differ in terms of the level of exposure to major global markets as well as the product composition of their export basket. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets. This result calls for developing countries to diversify their export markets rather than shielding themselves from international markets, which would actually raise economic risk and vulnerability
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc On the Fungibility of Spending and Earnings
    Abstract: A common behavioral assumption of micro-economic theory is that income is fungible. Using household panel data from rural China and Tanzania, this study finds however that people are more likely to spend unearned income on less basic consumption goods such as alcohol and tobacco, non-staple food, transportation and communication, and clothing, while they are somewhat more likely to spend earned income on basic consumption goods such as staple food, and invest it in education. This resonates with the widespread cultural notion that money that is easily earned is also more easily spent. Cognitively, the results could be understood within the context of emotional accounting, whereby people classify income based on the emotions it evokes, prompting them to spend hard earned money more wisely to mitigate the negative connotations associated with its acquisition. The policy implications are real, bearing for example on the choice between employment guarantee schemes and cash transfers in designing social security programs
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kaplan David S What Drives Short-Run Labor Market Volatility in Offshoring Industries?
    Abstract: Recent research shows that employment in Mexico's offshoring maquiladora industries is twice as volatile as employment in their U.S. industry counterparts. The analyses in this paper use data from Mexico's social security records and U.S. customs between the first quarter of 2007 and the last quarter of 2009 to identify four channels through which economic shocks emanating from the United States were amplified when transmitted into Mexico's offshoring labor market of Northern Mexico. First, employment and imports within industries are complements, which is consistent with imports being used as inputs for the assembly of exportable goods within industries. That is, when imports fell during the crisis, employment in Mexico was reduced rather than protected by the fall of imports. Second, contrary to other studies, employment is more responsive than wages to trade shocks. Third, fluctuations in Mexico-U.S. trade were associated with changes in the composition of employment, with the skill level of workers rising during downturns and falling during upswings. This implies that the correlation between average wages and trade shocks is partly driven by labor-force compositional effects, which may obscure individual-worker wage flexibility. Fourth, trade shocks affecting related industries (industries linked by employment flows affect employment at least as much as own-industry trade shocks, thus amplifying employment volatility through the propagation of shocks across industries within Northern Mexico. Furthermore, the data suggest that the observed fluctuations in U.S.-Mexico trade at the onset of the Great Recession in the U.S. were not associated with pre-existing employment trends in Northern Mexico
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  • 78
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Edition: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Brückner, Markus Trade Causes Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Abstract: In the 1990s the mainstream consensus was that trade causes growth. Subsequent research shed doubt on the consensus view, as evidence suggested that the identification of the effect of trade on growth was problematic in the existing literature. This paper contributes to this debate by focusing on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It estimates the effect of openness to international trade on economic growth with panel data. Employing instrumental variables techniques that correct for endogeneity bias, the empirical evidence suggests that within-country variations in trade openness cause economic growth: a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over gross domestic product is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5 percent per year; the long-run effect is larger, reaching about 0.8 percent after ten years. These results are robust to controlling for country and time fixed effects as well as political institutions
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: China's success in addressing food problems after adopting the reforms in 1978 has been nothing less than remarkable. Grain output (rice, wheat and maize) has almost doubled and most hunger has been eliminated. Ever since China embarked on its reform agenda more than 30 years ago, its economic growth and poverty reduction have been nothing less than remarkable. Agriculture has been an important contributor to these developments. Since 1978, China has almost doubled its cereal production (rice, wheat and maize) and it is now feeding 1.3 billion people, or 20 percent of the world's population, while having less than 11 percent of the world s agricultural land and less than 6 percent of its water. New challenges are presenting themselves for China's agriculture, and old ones are resurfacing. High (land saving) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and increasingly open domestic and international markets, combined with grain self-sufficiency targets, a multitude of very small, fragmented production structures, and distorted land and labor markets have defined Chinese agriculture over the past three decades. The relative importance of agriculture s three problems in policymaking thus evolves during the course of development away from the food to the farm and field problems. This shift has however recently been compounded by a resurgence of the food problem, as global supplies struggle to keep up with demand. China's agriculture anno 2030 will be predominantly a modern commercial smallholder agriculture that ensures self-sufficiency in cereal food (rice and wheat), but not in cereal feed (maize and soybeans). The sector will maximize rural employment opportunities in labor intensive high value agricultural products and act as a diligent custodian of its precious natural resources
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Small Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty
    Abstract: Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time-an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Arezki, Rabah The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices
    Abstract: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (20 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Large devaluations, foreign direct investment and exports
    Abstract: One side-effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was the resurgence of a debate over exchange rates. The conventional wisdom dictates that real-exchange rate adjustments are needed in order to bring about changes in trade balances across countries. However, the literature on the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and currency under-valuations on exports is surprisingly ambiguous. This note explores for the first time the potential role of foreign direct investment as an intermediate variable in the process of trade adjustment after large real-exchange rate changes. Real-exchange rate devaluations might result in increases in foreign direct investment inflows, as investors can take advantage of changes in the foreign-currency value of domestic assets. If so, the response of exports will depend to some extent on the nature of such foreign direct investment inflows, with inflows motivated by "horizontal" foreign direct investment associated with negligible changes in export growth after devaluation. The author utilizes quarterly data on real effective exchange rates, foreign direct investment inflows and exports to explore the effects of large devaluations (defined as the largest observed quarterly real effective exchange rate devaluation) on foreign direct investment and exports from 1990 to 2010. The admittedly speculative evidence suggests that there were heterogeneous experiences regarding the timing and magnitude of subsequent changes in foreign direct investment and exports, but on average foreign direct investment inflows tended to precede export surges within two year horizons
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pan, Lei Who is Vouching for the Input Voucher?
    Abstract: Input subsidy programs carry support as instruments to increase agricultural productivity, provided they are market-smart. This requires especially proper targeting to contain the fiscal pressure, with decentralized targeting of input vouchers currently the instrument of choice. Nonetheless, despite clear advantages in administrative costs, the fear of elite capture persists. These fears are borne out in the experience from the 2008 input voucher pilot program in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, examined here. Elected village officials received about 60 percent of the distributed vouchers, a factor that significantly reduced the targeting performance of the program, especially in more unequal and remote communities. When targeting the poor, greater coverage and a focus on high trust settings helped mitigate these concerns. The findings highlight the continuing need for scrutiny when relying on decentralized targeting. A clearer sense of purpose (increasing productivity among poorer farmers versus increasing aggregate output) could also enhance the targeting performance
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Pörtner, Claus C Family Planning and Fertility
    Abstract: Although reproductive health advocates consider family planning programs the intervention of choice to reduce fertility, there remains a great deal of skepticism among economists as to their effectiveness, despite little rigorous evidence to support either position. This study explores the effects of family planning in Ethiopia using a novel set of instruments to control for potential non-random program placement. The instruments are based on ordinal rankings of area characteristics, motivated by competition between areas for resources. Access to family planning is found to reduce completed fertility by more than one child among women without education. No effect is found among women with some formal schooling, suggesting that family planning and formal education act as substitutes, at least in this low-income, low-growth setting. This provides support to the notion that increasing access to family planning can provide an important, complementary entry point to kick-start the process of fertility reduction
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  • 85
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Edition: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel International Trade and Inclusive Growth
    Abstract: This note provides two analytical frameworks for understanding the role of trade in promoting inclusive growth in developing economies. A working definition of inclusive growth focuses on long-term, sustained growth associated with productivity growth and employment opportunities for broad portions of households and firms within countries. International integration can promote inclusive growth when workers and firms are able to adjust to enter into growing economic activities and adopt technologies availed through international trade. The frameworks described in this note build on simple household and firm choice models, which require only basic knowledge of development economics. The discussion highlights how these frameworks can help analysts focus on research and policy questions related to the impacts of international trade across the distribution of households and firms within countries. It also discusses publicly available data sets that can be used to explore some aspects of inclusive growth. In addition, the note highlights important caveats that need to be acknowledged by analysts and discusses avenues for future research, which needs to be part and parcel of the inclusive growth agenda
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  • 86
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Klinger, Bailey Export Discoveries, Diversification and Barriers To Entry
    Abstract: The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development has grown rapidly in recent years, partly due to the surprising finding that diversification rises with gross domestic product per capita up to a certain point. Export diversification along the extensive margin is inextricable from the introduction of new export products. The authors test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the introduction of new exports - export discoveries - under the assumption that the intensive and extensive margins of exports are correlated within broad country-industry groups. Econometric evidence from panel-data techniques that are appropriate for count data (the number of discoveries) suggests that discoveries within countries and industries rise with the growth of exports along the intensive margin (relative to the growth of non-export gross domestic product) but the magnitude of this partial correlation increases with domestic barriers to entry and with customs delays in exporting. However, the magnification effect of barriers to entry appears to be less significant as a determinant of total within-country export discoveries. This is consistent with inter-industry and within-country spillovers related to export discoveries, implying that barriers to entry enhance the effect of export growth on discoveries within country-industries but total discoveries might be unaffected by barriers to entry
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  • 87
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth
    Abstract: The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting - more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year - and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports, appear to be important sources of export growth. In fact, the smallest exporting firms experienced the fastest growth in their export values. Some of these results are compared with those from other countries that have been examined in related literature
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Microeconomic consequences and macroeconomic causes of foreign direct investment in southern African economies
    Abstract: The causes and consequences of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries remains a subject of debate among researchers and policymakers alike. The authors use international data and a new micro-data set of firms in thirteen Southern African Developing Countries (SADCs) to investigate the benefits and determinants of FDI in this region. FDI appears to have facilitated local development in the SADC region. Foreign firms tend to perform better than domestic firms, tend to be larger, are located in richer and better-governed countries and in countries with more competitive financial intermediaries, and they are more likely to export than domestic firms. They also exhibit positive spillover effects to domestic firms. Relying on a standard model to predict the country-level FDI inflows per capita, the authors find that SADC is attracting their expected level of FDI inflows, at least relative to its income level, human capital, demographic structure, institutions, and economic track record. There are some differences between SADC and the rest of the world in FDI behavior: in SADC, the income level is less important and openness more so. The authors use two comparison groups to compare with SADC to shed light on why other regions have attracted more FDI per capita than SADC. The factors that explain SADC’s low FDI inflows are economic fundamentals (e.g., previous growth rates, average income, phone density, and the adult share of population)
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (57 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Thomas, Timothy Natural disasters and household welfare
    Abstract: As natural disasters hit with increasing frequency, especially in coastal areas, it is imperative to better understand how much natural disasters affect economies and their people. This requires disaggregated measures of natural disasters that can be reliably linked to households, the first challenge this paper tackles. In particular, a methodology is illustrated to create natural disaster and hazard maps from first hand, geo-referenced meteorological data. In a second step, the repeated cross-sectional national living standard measurement surveys (2002, 2004, and 2006) from Vietnam are augmented with the natural disaster measures derived in the first phase, to estimate the welfare effects associated with natural disasters. The results indicate that short-run losses from natural disasters can be substantial, with riverine floods causing welfare losses of up to 23 percent and hurricanes reducing welfare by up to 52 percent inside cities with a population over 500,000. Households are better able to cope with the short-run effects of droughts, largely due to irrigation. There are also important long-run negative effects, in Vietnam mostly so for droughts, flash floods, and hurricanes. Geographical differentiation in the welfare effects across space and disaster appears partly linked to the functioning of the disaster relief system, which has so far largely eluded households in areas regularly affected by hurricane force winds
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  • 90
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman Natural Disasters and Growth
    Abstract: There has been a steady increase in the occurrence of natural disasters. Yet their effect on economic growth remains unclear, with some studies reporting negative, and others indicating no, or even positive effects. These seemingly contradictory findings can be reconciled by exploring the effects of natural disasters on growth separately by disaster and economic sector. This is consistent with the insights from traditional models of economic growth, where production depends on total factor productivity, the provision of intermediate outputs, and the capital-labor ratio, as well as the existence of important intersector linkages. Applying a dynamic Generalized Method of Moments panel estimator to a 1961-2005 cross-country panel, three major insights emerge. First, disasters affect economic growth - but not always negatively, and differently across disasters and economic sectors. Second, although moderate disasters can have a positive growth effect in some sectors, severe disasters do not. Third, growth in developing countries is more sensitive to natural disasters - more sectors are affected and the magnitudes are non-trivial
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  • 91
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Export Promotion Agencies Revisited
    Abstract: The number of national export promotion agencies has tripled over the past two decades. Although more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. The agencies were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's export promotion agencies and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. The results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. The identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as export promotion agencies are concerned, small is beautiful
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  • 92
    ISBN: 0821373080 , 0821373099 , 9780821373088 , 9780821373095
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxviii, 331 pages) , illustrations , 23 cm
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Latin American development forum series
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    DDC: 337.8051
    Keywords: China Foreign economic relations ; India Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations ; Latin America Foreign economic relations
    Note: Includes bibliographical references and index
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Cusolito, Ana P Technology Adoption and Factor Proportions in Open Economies
    Abstract: Theories of international trade assume that all countries use similar and exogenous technologies in the production of any good. This paper relaxes this assumption. The marriage of literatures on biased technical change and trade yields a tractable theory, which predicts that differences in factor endowments and intellectual property rights bias technical change toward particular factor intensities, and thus unit factor input requirements can vary across economies. Using data on net exports of a single industry, computers, intellectual property rights and factor endowments for 73 countries during 1980-2000, the paper shows that once technological choices are considered, countries with different factor endowments can become net exporters of the same product
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (#N/A p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Product Innovation By Incumbent Firms In Developing Economies
    Abstract: A model of firm innovation illustrates the effects of the threat of imitation and product varieties on a representative firm's decision to invest in research and development to produce new product varieties. The model motivates two empirical questions: (1) Is research and development partially correlated with firms' propensity to introduce new products or product innovation in developing countries? (2) Do trade policies and the national investment climate affect firms' propensity for product innovation? The econometric evidence suggests that the answers are yes and yes, but the investment climate affects product innovation in a manner that is consistent with the presence of market failures and state capture. National trade-policy distortions appear to reduce the probability of product innovation, and the density of exporting firms at the national level also seems to positively affect the propensity to introduce new products by individual firms. The paper discusses some policy implications
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  • 95
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Growth of China And India In World Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China's and to a large extent India's growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (46 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Gauging The Welfare Effects of Shocks In Rural Tanzania
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment ; Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment ; Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Studies of risk and its consequences tend to focus on one risk factor, such as a drought or an economic crisis. Yet 2003 household surveys in rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash-crop-growing regions in Tanzania that experienced a precipitous coffee price decline around the turn of the millennium, identified health and drought shocks as well as commodity price declines as major risk factors, suggesting the need for a comprehensive approach to analyzing household vulnerability. In fact, most coffee growers, except the smaller ones in Kilimanjaro, weathered the coffee price declines rather well, at least to the point of not being worse off than non-coffee growers. Conversely, improving health conditions and reducing the effect of droughts emerge as critical to reduce vulnerability. One-third of the rural households in Kilimanjaro experienced a drought or health shocks, resulting in an estimated 8 percent welfare loss on average, after using savings and aid. Rainfall is more reliable in Ruvuma, and drought there did not affect welfare. Surprisingly, neither did health shocks, plausibly because of lower medical expenditures given limited health care provisions
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cravino, Javier Substitution Between Foreign Capital In China, India, The Rest of The World, And Latin America
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign direct investment ; Foreign investment ; International Economics & Trade ; International investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Manufacturing ; Natural resources ; Private Sector Development ; Production processes ; Results ; Search ; Web
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of the emergence of China and India on foreign capital stocks in other economies. Using bilateral data from 1990-2003 and drawing from the knowledge-capital model of the multinational enterprises to control for fundamental determinants of foreign capital stocks across countries, the evidence suggests that the impact of foreign capital in China and India on other countries' foreign capital stocks has been positive. This finding is robust to the use of ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators; to the inclusion of time and country-pair fixed effects; to the inclusion of natural-resource endowments; and to the use of the sum of foreign capital stocks in Hong Kong (China) and mainland China instead of using only the latter's foreign capital stocks. There is surprisingly weak evidence of substitution in manufacturing foreign capital stocks away from Central America and Mexico in favor of China, and from the Southern Cone countries to India, but these findings are not robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques
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  • 98
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (41 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, And Poverty Traps
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth
    Abstract: Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices
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  • 99
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cravino, Javier Foreign Direct Investment In Latin America During The Emergence of China And India
    Keywords: Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; Capital formation ; Capital stocks ; Common Carriers Industry ; Corporate Law ; Debt Markets ; Developing countries ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial support ; Fixed capital ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign capital ; Host countries ; Host country ; Industry ; International Bank ; Law and Development ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics
    Abstract: In spite of the growing concerns about foreign direct investment being diverted from Latin America to China and India, the best available data show that Latin America has performed relatively well since 1997. Foreign capital stocks from OECD countries and the United States in particular in China and India are still far from those in the largest Latin American economies. The evidence shows that foreign capital stocks in China increased more than in Latin America during 1990-1997, but not as much since 1997. In fact, Latin America has actually performed better than China since 1997 given its lack of relative growth. The growth of foreign capital stocks in India was more stable than in China. Nonetheless, after controlling for shocks emanating from the source countries and bilateral distance between source and host countries, this paper finds a significant change in foreign capital stocks relative to China between 1990 and 1997, but no change relative to India
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel Specialization And Adjustment During The Growth of China And India
    Keywords: Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets ; Comparative advantage ; Econometric estimates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Free Trade ; Global integration ; Gross domestic product ; Industry ; International Economics & Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market share ; Markets and Market Access ; Patterns of trade ; Public Sector Development ; Specialization ; Terms of trade ; Trade Policy ; Water Resources ; Water and Industry ; World markets
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American economies. The authors construct Vollrath's measure of revealed comparative advantage by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This measure accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the revealed comparative advantage of Latin America and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of Latin A-with the exception of Mexico-has been moving in opposite direction of the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India's growth since 1990
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