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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1538
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Soziale Mobilität ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses income, wealth and earnings inequality in Australia, using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey as the primary source of data. Income inequality in Australia has risen in the last two decades, but most of the rise occurred prior to the global financial crisis. HILDA data nevertheless show evidence of slower income growth in the middle of the income distribution compared with the top and the bottom. While Australia has experienced a rising inequality in wages – mostly through rapid earnings increases among top earners - this has been offset by increased participation and longer hours worked at the bottom of the distribution. According to HILDA data, relative pay across different levels of education groups has not recorded large shifts over the last 15 years. At the same time, we find evidence for job polarisation; notably, the share of high skilled jobs versus middle skilled jobs has increased. With respect to concerns about the casualisation of the labour force and less stable nature of jobs amid technological change and globalisation, the incidence of casual employment – where workers receive no paid sick leave or holiday leave - in Australia has been reported to have risen since the 1980s, especially for females. According to HILDA data however, the incidence of casual employment has fallen since early 2000s. Furthermore, we find no evidence that contract duration has shortened over time.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1544
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Branchenentwicklung ; Brexit ; EU-Mitgliedschaft ; EU-Staaten ; CGE-Modell ; Dänemark ; METRO trade model ; Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in Denmark of the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final Brexit deal between the EU and the UK, this paper assumes a worst case outcome where trade relations are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides something close to an upper bound estimate of the potential negative economic impact. Any trade agreement that would result in a closer relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU than WTO rules reduces the negative impact. Under the worst case illustrative scenario assumed in this paper, Danish exports to the UK fall by 17%, total exports and GDP decline by 1.3% in the medium term. This effect is from the trade channel absent any change in foreign direct investment (FDI) or productivity. The fall in exports is concentrated in the Danish agri-food and machinery and equipment sectors, which account for half of the export reduction. Exports to the UK of agri-food and machinery and equipment fall by 24% and 17% respectively. Smaller manufacturing sectors such as wood and leather products, metals and textiles see falls of over 20% in their exports to the UK. The chemicals sector, which includes pharmaceuticals, comprises 9.5% of Danish exports to the UK and would experience an 18% reduction in its exports to the UK. Seven Danish sectors experience production declines of over 2.5% in the scenario. The largest decline is in the meat products sectors (7%), metals (3%), material manufacturing (2.3%) and other agri-food sectors (2.2%). These sectors would also see the largest declines in labour demand.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1545
    Keywords: Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Danish firms are close to the technological frontier compared to other OECD countries, making the introduction of new – potentially disruptive – technologies key to boost productivity growth. Despite a high level of digitalisation and good framework conditions, aggregate productivity growth in Denmark has been only average compared to other advanced OECD countries and lags behind in less knowledge-intensive service industries. Policy needs to embrace innovative technologies by leaning against attempts to discourage or exclude them and by tackling unintended or outmoded obstacles in legislation and regulation. Analysis based on Danish firm-level data suggests that digital adoption through investment in ICT capital increases firm productivity and contributes to business dynamics and firm growth. Improving economic incentives for such investment as well as facilitating adoption of new business models require a shift of taxation away from capital and labour income. Ensuring supply of the right skills and maintaining effective upskilling will help workers cope with disruptive changes and ensure that economic growth benefits all.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1555
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing markets are large and highly volatile: they can thus create large macroeconomic risks. The current paper provides a bird’s eye view of where the housing markets of major OECD economies currently stand. It then uses the results of recently developed models to provide indications of where macroeconomic risks exist. Finally, the paper draws on recent empirical analyses to suggest how economic policies can enhance economic resilience by reducing housing-related risks through macroprudential measures and housing market reforms (such as changes in rent regulation, taxation and land use policies).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1556
    Keywords: Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Portugal’s export performance over the past decade has been impressive, helping to reduce external imbalances. This partly owed to a sequence of structural reforms that benefited the productivity of the export sector and led to an increase in its size. Nonetheless, exports as a share of GDP and the stock of foreign direct investment remain below that of other comparable small European economies. Further shifting the orientation of the economy to the external sector is vital for Portugal given the strong link between trade openness and GDP per capita. To do this, policymakers must ensure that policy settings incentivise exporting firms to expand and improve their competitiveness, both through lower price and improved quality. For example, regulatory barriers that reduce competition in professional services should be lowered to improve the cost and quality of intermediate inputs. Increasing the efficiency of domestic infrastructure is also key, especially through competition-enhancing reforms to the port sector. To further differentiate and improve Portuguese export products, skills in the business sector need to be enhanced through better-targeted lifelong learning opportunities. At the same time, there is a need to focus innovation policies on raising the participation of small and medium enterprises in innovative activities.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1558
    Keywords: Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Education is a crucial determinant of labour market success. We investigate whether education is an appropriate means to cushion the negative consequences of job loss and study the role of age as a second major labour market factor. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data for the years 2000 to 2016, we analyse unemployment durations and unemployment-induced wage penalties for prime-age men. We show that individuals without formal qualifications face a significantly lower probability of finding a new job than workers with some kind of formal qualification, and hence face a higher risk of long-term unemployment. Furthermore, the duration of unemployment prior to finding a new job rises with age. This pattern is particularly pronounced for individuals with upper secondary education or no formal qualifications. Moreover, we find a negative relationship between unemployment and an individual’s subsequent wage. This depressing impact is significant only for unqualified workers and workers with intermediate vocational education. Yet, differences between educational groups are not statistically significant. Across all education groups, unemployment depresses subsequent wages more strongly at a higher age. However, the results suggest that this is due to longer unemployment spells of older workers, not age per se.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1563
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1565
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: New Zealand’s housing supply has not kept pace with rising demand, including from net immigration. Affordability has worsened, particularly for low-income renters. Government action is underway to allow new housing through initiatives such as the Urban Growth Agenda, KiwiBuild and the Housing and Urban Development Authority, but further steps are needed to improve well-being. Clear overarching principles for sustainable urban development and rationalisation of strict regulatory containment policies would allow the planning system to better respond to demand for land. Incentives for local governments to accommodate growth could be increased by giving them access to additional revenue linked to local development. More user charging and targeted rates would also help to fund infrastructure required to service new housing. Government delivery of affordable housing through KiwiBuild should be re-focused towards enabling the supply of land to developers, supporting development of affordable rental housing and further expanding social housing in areas facing shortages.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris, France : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1566
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: New Zealand’s immigration system aims to enhance well-being by promoting economic development, reuniting families and meeting humanitarian objectives. Immigration is high and residence admissions are focused on the high skilled to enhance economic outcomes. Empirical evidence suggests that immigration has had small positive effects on per capita incomes and has not adversely affected the wage or employment outcomes of the average NZ-born worker. However, temporary migration has had small negative impacts on new hires of some groups of people, notably social welfare beneficiaries not in the (16) most urbanised areas. Immigrants have high well-being outcomes on average but suffer an initial shortfall in employment and wages relative to the comparable NZ-born. New Zealand has refined the migration system over the years to attract those who are more likely to ease labour shortages and, should they apply for residence, have better earnings prospects. It has also deployed settlement and integration programmes to improve labour market and other outcomes that affect well-being. This chapter looks at further adjustments to the system to enhance its well-being benefits for both the NZ-born and immigrants. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (http://www.oecd.org/economy/new-zealand-economic-snapshot/).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1569
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Japan’s gross government debt of 226% of GDP in 2018 is the highest ever recorded in the OECD area, and places the economy at risk. The government now aims to achieve a primary surplus by FY 2025. Additional fiscal consolidation, based on a detailed plan covering specific spending cuts and tax increases, is necessary to put the government debt ratio on a downward trend in the face of rapid population ageing. This is a very difficult task and a stronger fiscal framework would help keep policy on track to achieve fiscal targets. Controlling social spending requires making better use of healthcare resources, in p art by reducing overinvestment in hospitals and increasing the use of generic drugs. Another priority is ensuring the sustainability of local government spending, in part by reducing costs through the joint provision of local public services and infrastructure across jurisdictions and the development of compact cities in the context of depopulation in many parts of Japan. Increased revenue should come primarily from hikes in the consumption tax rate, which is among the lowest in the OECD. In addition, disincentives to employment in the tax and benefit system should be removed, as sustained economic growth is crucial to ensure fiscal sustainability. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Japan (http://www.oecd.org/economy/japan-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1568
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fundamental reform of traditional Japanese labour market practices is essential to cope with rapid population ageing and the era of 100-year lives. A shift to more flexible employment and wage systems based on performance rather than age would enable Japan to better utilise its human capital. Abolishing the right of firms to set mandatory retirement – typically at age 60 – would enable employees to extend their careers and reduce the link between wages and seniority. It would also facilitate a further increase in the pension eligibility age above 65, thereby helping to reduce poverty among the elderly. Life-long learning is another key element to extending careers. It is also crucial to address a range of issues that discourage the employment of women, namely the lack of work-life balance and shortages of high quality and affordable childcare and long-term care for the elderly. Fighting discrimination and gender stereotypes is also important to allow women to assume greater leadership roles. Coping with population decline also requires pursuing recent efforts to increase the role of foreign workers in Japan. Breaking down labour market dualism is crucial to expand employment opportunities for women and older people, while reducing income inequality and relative poverty. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Japan (http://www.oecd.org/economy/japan-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1572
    Keywords: Economics ; Argentina ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ever since the early 20th century, Argentina has failed to fully reap the benefits that integrating into the world economy can offer. With exports and imports only accounting for less than 30% of GDP, Argentina is significantly less integrated into the world economy than other emerging market economies. This reflects several decades of inward oriented policies including a strategy of industrialisation through import substitution. Trading little, Argentina has also remained on the side-lines of global value chains, all of which represents significant lost opportunities for growth and well-being. This paper, based on a chapter in the 2019 Economic Survey of Argentina, analyses the potential benefits and distributional effects of a stronger integration into the global economy. It also discusses policy options for opening up and for accompanying policies to ease the transition towards a more open economy. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Argentina http://www.oecd.org/economy/argentina-economic-snapshot/
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1578
    Keywords: Economics ; Ireland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While policymakers are rightly concerned about evidence of rising income concentration at the top, it is often wrongly assumed that the same rich individuals stay rich. In reality, the membership of this group are in a state of constant flux. This new study, based on more than 20 million tax records over 10 years, examines the highest income earners in Ireland but also who moves up and down the income ladder over time. While income inequality has increased in most OECD countries, in Ireland it has been broadly stable for most of the income distribution. The top 10% of income earners receive 1/3 of total income and pay around 2/3 of all income tax. Unlike other OECD countries, the top 1% has not expanded its gross income share, partly due to long range downward mobility during the recession for those with the highest incomes. Moreover, more progressive taxation has also reduced the top 1 per cent’s share of disposable income. This paper finds that income inequality increases with age and differs dramatically across economic sectors – the difference between the top 1% and the median is greatest in the professional, financial and health sectors. In the professional sector for example, the top 1% threshold is 12 times the median compared to 3 times in the public sector. The share of employment in these sectors has grown contributing to greater income inequality but also higher upward income mobility. Indeed, the analysis in the paper shows upward income mobility is higher for those working in finance, professional and technical occupations and among the young, those living in Dublin, and those changing jobs. Finally, there is also evidence that economic mobility has declined among median income classes over the past 10 years in Ireland – relatively fewer workers are now moving up or down the income ladder than before.
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1580
    Keywords: Economics ; Italy ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses Italy’s 2019 tax and benefit reforms, analyses hypothetical reforms and proposes a reform package that balances goals of reducing poverty, encouraging employment and fiscal sustainability. Using the OECD’s Tax-Benefit and the EUROMOD microsimulation models, it shows that the new guaranteed minimum income scheme introduced in 2019 significantly strengthens Italy’s low income protection system but can also financially discourage recipients from working. The debated flattening of personal income tax rates would do little to improve work incentives, but would drastically cut tax revenues and increase inequality, by reducing the progressivity of the personal tax system. A proposed reform package that maintains progressive personal income tax rates, gradually withdraws low-income support and provides additional benefits for low-wage earners would make inroads into poverty and inequality while encouraging formal work. This paper accompanies and extends the results of the in-depth chapter of the OECD 2019 Economic Survey of Italy (2019[1]) on social and regional disparities.
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1586
    Keywords: Education ; Economics ; Sweden ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents the econometric analysis of lower secondary school performance carried out for the chapter on education of the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Sweden. The dataset covers most Swedish schools providing education for 9th graders. Student socio-economic background has a considerable impact on academic results. Policy inputs are also correlated with results, notably in schools with pupils from weaker socio-economic backgrounds, but teacher qualifications and spending per student are endogenous. For-profit private schools underperform compared to non-profit and public schools, albeit with strong heterogeneity between schools. The introduction of an indicator of competition, based on the density of schools, suggests that intensified school competition lowers results in schools with a high share of pupils from weaker socio-economic backgrounds. Schools, and especially those achieving weaker results, have scope to raise their performance by improving their adaptation to student needs. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Sweden http://www.oecd.org/economy/sweden-economic-snapshot/
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1590
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Making housing more affordable ranks high on the policy agenda across the world. One way to achieve affordable housing is to ensure sufficiently elastic supply of the housing stock in response to demand shocks. This paper aims at disentangling policy from non-policy drivers in explaining cross-regional differences in housing supply elasticities. It uses GIS data to account for the presence of natural and man-made obstacles to residential construction in functional urban areas across the 12 OECD countries that provide sufficiently long time series for regional house prices. The results suggest that the presence of water, steep land, parks and high-density urban areas all restrict the supply of housing. However, there remain very large differences in supply elasticities across countries, which corroborates the finding from national analysis that policies have a strong influence.
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1591
    Keywords: Economics ; Malaysia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: To enjoy the same success in the future as in the past, Malaysia will need to ensure that more people develop the right skills and use them effectively in the workplace. Special attention needs to be devoted to supporting disadvantaged students and adults in developing critical skills and reducing the skills imbalances in the labour market, which can contribute to higher productivity and growth. In light of the importance of skills for fostering labour productivity, this paper examines evidence of skills imbalances in Malaysia and assesses Malaysia’s performance in a number of key policy areas that can help reduce imbalances. The first section provides an overview of skill imbalances in the Malaysian labour market and presents new evidence from the OECD Skills for Jobs database. The subsequent sections discuss how Malaysia performs in four policies areas that are important for minimising imbalances: i) improving teacher quality and practices, ii) strengthening the connection between education institutions and employment, iii) providing training opportunities during working life, and iv) making better use of women’s skills. The final section focuses on demand side policies that can support Malaysia to move towards a high-skill equilibrium and discusses areas of action to improve the conditions that promote the development of a more innovative and dynamic economy. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Malaysia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/malaysia-economic-snapshot)
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1532
    Keywords: Kapitalstock ; Auslandsinvestition ; Investitionsentscheidung ; Forschung ; Digitalisierung ; Wirtschaftsdaten ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Starting from a low level in early 2000s, Turkey’s total capital stock has since expanded rapidly, but the composition and quality of investment raises questions. This study focuses on business investment, as the main driver of physical and knowledge-based capital formation and, hence, of potential output and the material foundations of well-being. Micro data allow to distinguish four types of firms: small businesses with a high rate of informality, medium-sized family firms, large formal corporations, and skilled start-ups. The relative importance of the challenges facing these different types of firms varies, notably with respect to skill shortcomings, regulatory burdens, labour costs, access to bank lending, over-leveraging and scarce equity capital. Improving the current business environment and overcoming the fragmentation of the business sector will be crucial to upgrade the quality of business investment and to enhance the allocative efficiency of capital formation. This calls for promoting formality, best management practices, the build-up of equity capital, access to long-term bank financing and other market-based financing that can complement traditional bank lending; and a faster and more inclusive transition to the digital economy.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1535
    Keywords: Tourismus ; Nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Tourism has boomed in Indonesia in recent years and is already one of the main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Indonesia has rich and diverse natural assets, whose tourism potential remains underutilised. The government has an ambitious target of attracting 20 million tourists by 2019, up from nearly 14 million in 2017. The main destination will continue to be Bali. Using Bali as the preferred development model, the government wants to develop other destinations, particularly through infrastructure programmes to improve connectivity, which is a longstanding challenge for tourism as well as for regional development more generally. Enhancing the tourism-related skills of local populations will provide them with expanded job opportunities. This calls for reforms to vocational education and training. Moreover, recent efforts by the authorities to improve the business environment need to continue, including through helping firms embrace digitalisation. Tourism may be growing too fast in some destinations without adequately taking into account sustainability issues, both for the environment and local communities. Better planning and co-ordination at all levels of government and across relevant policy areas can facilitate more sustainable tourism development. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-indonesia.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris, France : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1540
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Personalabbau ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Australia has a dynamic labour market with high job turnover. According to the HILDA Survey data, about one-fifth of all employees separate from their job every year, and about one fifth of those are displaced workers - laid off for economic reasons. Using multivariate probit regression we find that men, older workers and workers with less than secondary education tend to be displaced more often. In certain industries, such as construction and manufacturing, the incidence of displacement has been higher over the last fifteen years. Workers with lower tenure and casual employees also face a higher probability of displacement. However, a very high proportion - close to 80% percent - of displaced workers find a new job within two years. Among certain groups of workers, the share finding new employment is significantly lower: women, older workers, and less educated workers, workers who had a casual job and part-time workers. However, not all groups search for a job after being displaced. We find evidence that women, older workers and workers in low-skilled occupations are quite likely to exit the labour force following displacement.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1541
    Keywords: 1995 - 2011 ; Lohnquote ; Politik ; Kausalanalyse ; Ökonometrie ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Labour share developments over the past two decades have differed widely across OECD countries, with about half of them experiencing significant declines. This paper analyses the role of public policies in shaping labour share developments across countries. The results suggest that pro-competition product market reforms raise the labour share by reducing producer rents. Labour market reforms that strengthen the bargaining position of workers, such as tightening employment protection or raising minimum wages, may raise wages in the short term but risk triggering the substitution of capital for labour in the medium term. On average, across countries, such reforms are estimated to reduce the labour share. By contrast, promoting the re-employment of workers who lose their jobs through active labour market policies unambiguously raises the labour share.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1547
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Investment in intangible assets has become an increasingly important driver of productivity growth in OECD countries. Facing stronger informational asymmetries and harder to value collateral, intangible investment is subject to more severe financial constraints and relies more on internal rather than external capital. To test the hypothesis that the availability of finance, and financial development in particular, is more important for productivity growth in sectors that are intensive in intangible assets, an empirical analysis is carried over a panel of 32 countries and 30 industries, from 1990 to 2014. Overall, results confirm that the impact of financial development on labour productivity is not uniform across sectors. It varies based on country-specific institutional settings and sector-specific characteristics such as the intangible asset intensity, financial structure and external financial dependence. Policies and institutional settings may relax financial constraints by: i) altering the overall composition of finance; ii) encouraging competition and iii) strengthening the legal environment in which businesses operate.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1550
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The rapid emergence of gig economy platforms that use digital technologies to intermediate labour on a per-task basis has triggered an intense policy debate about the economic and social implications. This paper takes stock of the emerging evidence. The results suggest that gig economy platforms’ size remains modest (1-3 per cent of overall employment). Their growth has been most pronounced in a small number of services industries with high shares of own-account workers, suggesting that thus far they have been a substitute for traditional self-employment rather than dependent employment. New evidence provided in this paper is consistent with positive effects of platform growth on overall employment and small negative or insignificant effects on dependent employment and wages. While most empirical studies suggest that platforms are more efficient in matching workers to clients, reductions in barriers to work could offset such productivity-enhancing effects by creating employment opportunities for low-productivity workers. Fully reaping the potential benefits from gig economy platforms while protecting workers and consumers requires adapting existing policy settings in product and labour markets and applying them to traditional businesses and platforms on an equal footing.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1551
    Keywords: Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Slovak Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Roma account for almost one-tenth of the population in the Slovak Republic. They live mostly excluded from the general population in concentrated settlements, separated neighbourhoods or ghettos. The majority live in poverty and face social exclusion in almost all aspects of everyday life. Only a small share of Roma work, and a majority suffer from long spells of unemployment, their educational attainment is low, and a large number are illiterate. Social exclusion is further exacerbated by rising general animosity and mistrust between Roma and non-Roma groups. This calls for immediate policy action. The government should ensure easy access to all public services and provide additional support for the disadvantaged Roma communities. Individual policies should be effectively coordinated, because the problems that the Roma are facing are interconnected. A necessary precondition for successful Roma integration is the support of the general population. Policy interventions towards Roma integration should be accompanied by measures to eliminate the prejudices among parts of the majority population against their fellow citizens.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 25
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1549
    Keywords: Economics ; Spain ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Spain is a highly decentralised country, making the effective implementation of national reforms dependent on regional policies. Some regional disparities are high and need to be reduced. High regional dispersion in education and job outcomes, compounded by low inter-regional mobility, emerge as key drivers of regional inequalities in income and wellbeing. Lifelong learning programmes that take into account regional specific needs would help foster regional skills and attract firms to lagging regions. Ensuring full portability of social and housing benefits across regions, by providing temporary assistance either by the region of origin or the central government, would improve inter-regional mobility. At the same time, barriers to achieving a truly single market limit productivity growth of regions, including the most advanced. Reducing regulatory barriers and better innovation policies would boost productivity. Effective intergovernmental coordination bodies and a well designed interregional fiscal equalisation system will be key to ensuring that regions have the incentives to implement policies for inclusive growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1553
    Keywords: Economics ; France ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The mission of the French High Commission for Pension Reform is to prepare the reform introducing a universal pension points system in France. This paper explains why implementing a universal points system in France would increase transparency, reduce inequality and generate efficiency gains for the whole economy. It documents the experience of OECD countries which have opted for a points or a notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes, and provides a technical framework to compare defined benefit, points and NDC pension systems. The paper discusses some key issues related to the main parameters of the new system. While it can include a wide range of redistribution schemes depending on political choices, indexation rules should be designed in a way that maximises, as much as possible, the rates of return on pension contributions within a pay-as-you-go system while ensuring financial sustainability and accounting for changes in life expectancy. This implies that the value of the point would vary at the individual level depending on the cohort and the effective age of retirement based on actuarial principles. No country having a points system currently uses age-cohort point values, and France could be the first one to introduce such an innovation. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of France (http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/france-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1557
    Keywords: Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: China’s regions have been experiencing impressive growth over the past decades, but their potentials could be better exploited by creating a single product and labour market. Local protectionism increases transaction costs and hinders competition, thereby taking a toll on productivity. Administrative monopolies have long thrived and are hard to dismantle. Restrictions on the hukou and the fragmented pension system limit labour mobility. Local regulations aim at, among other things, securing the collection of local taxes, without which cities could not afford to offer the same public services to migrants as to urbanites. Hence, dismantling local regulations and creating a single product and labour market needs to go hand-in-hand with the reform of inter-governmental finances. Recent measures on both the product and labour market front appear to aim at making up for the slow progress over the past decade or so. There are signs that these efforts are helping China’s regions at various levels to converge toward each other. Disparities are shrinking faster across provinces, compared to within provinces. Integration of product and labour markets will boost productivity over the medium-to long term by reducing transaction costs, but could potentially widen regional disparities, which are already relatively high. This will necessitate enhanced transfers and re-centralisation of the financing of spending in some key categories such as education and health. Policies to help catching up of laggard regions by better connectivity through infrastructure investment are bearing fruit, but such investments should be subject to rigorous cost-benefit criteria to enhance capital allocation efficiency and should take into account externalities. Notwithstanding significant disparities along multiple dimensions across provinces, inequalities, be it in terms of income, wealth or education, are actually most striking along the rural-urban dimension. The rural revitalisation strategy, a novel element of the 19th Party Congress outcomes, is expected to address this issue. The other recent strategy of nurturing the formation of city groups will also likely benefit rural areas in-between those cities. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of China (http://www.oecd.org/economy/china-economic-snapshot/).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1564
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Complementing the Product Market Regulation (PMR) survey, the Indicators on the Governance of Sector Regulators map the regulatory arrangements of 130 regulators across 38 countries and five network sectors: energy, e-communications, rail and air transport, and water. The indicators are structured along three components: independence, accountability and scope of action. For the 2018 update, the OECD Secretariat and delegates of the Network of Economic Regulators (NER) revised the structure and content of the survey based on new best practice principles, guidance documents and the growing body of work of the NER on the performance of regulators. The analysis shows that, while the governance arrangements of regulators vary considerably across countries and sectors, some key trends and correlations can be observed. These insights can support countries and regulators wishing to benchmark their governance practices and reform their governance arrangements.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1573
    Keywords: Economics ; Italy ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effect of public administration efficiency on firm-level productivity. To this purpose, we combine newly available data from Italy on public administration efficiency of subnational governments with geo-localised firm-level data for the years 2004-2014. Italy provides a relevant setting to examine the relationship between public administration efficiency and firm productivity because of large and persistent spatial disparities in economic performance and local administrative capacity. The identification strategy exploits discontinuities that occur in local public-administration efficiency across provincial borders. The results suggest that local public administration efficiency has a large effect on firms’ productivity growth. Increasing local public administration efficiency from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile would raise the firm-level labour productivity in Italy by 2.4 percentage points.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 30
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Documents de travail du Département des Affaires Économiques de l'OCDE no. 1559
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1559
    Keywords: Economics ; France ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Ce chapitre propose une analyse approfondie des performances du marché du travail français suivant la nouvelle Stratégie pour l’emploi de l’OCDE. Depuis 2015, les créations d’emploi ont fait refluer le chômage et les situations de sous emploi ont diminué, mais le marché du travail français reste confronté à de nombreux défis. Le taux d’emploi, bien qu’en hausse, demeure relativement faible, les compétences de la population sont inégales, et la rotation d’une partie des travailleurs sur des contrats de moins d’un mois a augmenté. Les créations d’emplois de qualité ont été insuffisantes pour permettre l’intégration économique et sociale d’un grand nombre de jeunes et des moins qualifiés. Des réformes ambitieuses ont visé à réduire l’incertitude entourant le coût des fins de contrats de travail, tout en améliorant les opportunités de formation pour les moins qualifiés et en renforçant l’accompagnement et l’orientation, de manière cohérente avec les recommandations de la nouvelle Stratégie pour l’emploi de l’OCDE. Le gouvernement a aussi restructuré le dialogue social aux niveaux des entreprises et des branches, réduit les incertitudes sur les procédures de licenciement économique et poursuit une réforme de l’assurance chômage. Afin de maximiser les gains de ces réformes, la priorité doit être de renforcer l’efficacité de la formation continue et de limiter la reproduction des inégalités et les décrochages scolaires. Simplifier l’organisation des services d’accompagnement et faciliter les mobilités professionnelles permettraient aussi un meilleur appariement entre offre et demande de travail et des gains de productivité soutenus. Le dialogue social au niveau des entreprises doit également être encouragé, tout comme l’engagement des employeurs dans la formation initiale et continue. Enfin, la réforme en cours de l’assurance chômage ainsi qu’une unification des systèmes de soutien aux bas revenus améliorerait l’efficacité et la lisibilité des prestations sociales tout en incitant plus fortement à la reprise d’emplois durables. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France 2019 (http://www.oecd.org/fr/economie/france-en-un-coup-d-oeil/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in englischer Sprache
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1577
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent empirical literature on policy drivers of two educational outcomes - years of schooling and rates of return - that form the OECD’s aggregate measure of human capital. The paper sets the literature findings into the context of current educational polices in place in OECD countries. While much of the empirical results are mixed, depend on country and time coverage as well as estimation methods, the review identifies the following policies most likely to promote better educational outcomes: quality pre-primary education, quality teaching, accountability and autonomy of teaching institutions, comprehensive lower secondary education and availability of individual financing for the pursuit of higher education.
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1582
    Keywords: Economics ; Iceland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Strong and relevant skills are vital for helping Iceland to adjust to rapidly changing technology and competition in the world economy and safeguard high prosperity and well-being. Many students, especially those with an immigration background, lack solid core skills and competences that weakens the skills-base. Vocational and tertiary education do not always provide skills needed by the labour market. A comprehensive approach is required to strengthen skills, based on systematic assessment and forecasting exercises. This should include measures to improve teaching quality, including through stronger professional development, and ensure its equitable distribution; strengthen the work-based component of vocational training; and ensure that tertiary education provides the right skills. Beyond education, effective re-skilling and up-skilling programmes, including for immigrant workers, and strong work incentives are essential for further skill development and to help make the best use of existing skills. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Iceland http://www.oecd.org/economy/iceland-economic-snapshot/
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1585
    Keywords: Economics ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper studies the association between occupational licensing and job hire and job separation rates along with earnings of job stayers and job-to-job movers. In contrast to previous studies, it attempts to provide macro-level estimates by relying on a novel Job-to-Job Flows database from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering the near universe of job transitions. The empirical analysis exploits variation in licensing regulation across states and industries and constructs indicators for both the share of employment subject to licensing (the extensive margin) and the strictness of regulation (the intensive margin). Results show that more extensive and stricter licensing are both associated with lower job mobility. This holds for job-to-job mobility as well as for transitions in and out of nonemployment. The strictness indicator points to lower job-to-job mobility from entry restrictions and renewal requirements to licensing, while education and training requirements may increase job-to-job mobility. The analysis also finds a negative association between licensing restrictions for people with a criminal record and job hire from nonemployment. Further analysis shows that interstate job-to-job mobility tends to be lower towards states with more extensive and stricter licensing regulation. The results from the analysis of earnings are generally mixed and mostly insignificant. However, there is some evidence of lower earnings gains from job-to-job moves to states with more licensing within the same industry, which may reflect lower productivity growth because of weaker reallocation of labour resources and reduced competition.
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1587
    Keywords: Education ; Economics ; Sweden ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Swedish school results declined for two decades following a series of reforms in the early 1990s decentralising the school system and introducing choice, competition and management by objectives. The general aims and direction of reform were not destined to lower results, but weaknesses of reform design and implementation, against the backdrop of a deep recession, likely contributed to falling outcomes. Residential segregation and the current model of competition and choice increase school segregation and likely reduce equality of opportunity. A coherent set of reforms should strengthen central government institutions, rebuild a regional governance structure and increasingly target funding to pupils’ needs. Better steering of competition and school choice implies ensuring that grades fairly represent pupils’ skills and knowledge, that municipalities increasingly take the socio-economic mix of pupils into account in entry and investment decisions, and that entry and expansion of private schools are better coordinated to counter school segregation. Teaching needs to become more attractive to raise the quality of recruitment to the profession and to address current and future teacher shortages by improving teacher education, strengthening continuous learning and instigating more cooperation, feedback and support between colleagues. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Sweden (http://www.oecd.org/economy/sweden-economic-snapshot/).
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1533
    Keywords: Digitalisierung ; Informationstechnik ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Qualifikation ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; European Union ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses how the adoption of a range of digital technologies affects firm productivity. It combines cross-country firm-level data on productivity and industry-level data on digital technology adoption in an empirical framework that accounts for firm heterogeneity. The results provide robust evidence that digital adoption in an industry is associated to productivity gains at the firm level. Effects are relatively stronger in manufacturing and routine-intensive activities. They also tend to be stronger for more productive firms and weaker in presence of skill shortages, which may relate to the complementarities between digital technologies and other forms of capital (e.g. skills, organisation, or intangibles). As a result, digital technologies may have contributed to the growing dispersion in productivity performance across firms. Hence, policies to support digital adoption should go hand in hand with creating the conditions to enable the catch-up of lagging firms, notably by easing access to skills.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1539
    Keywords: Armut ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Australien ; Erwerbsarmut ; Erwerbsarmut ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses relative income poverty in Australia of individuals aged 15 or more, based on the HILDA Survey data. Australia has above-average poverty rates among OECD countries, but poverty has decreased in the last 15 years. Certain groups are more at risk than others. People living alone and lone parents are at higher risk of poverty. Old people in Australia have a more than 30% chance of living in poverty, which is one of the highest in the OECD. Among those of working age, being employed significantly reduces the risk, while those out of the labour force and the unemployed are at much higher risk of poverty. Nevertheless, there is poverty also among people that work, typically casual workers and part-time workers. People with low education are also at risk. Those living alone and one-parent households face quite a high risk of poverty, even if they are employed. Indigenous Australians are almost twice as likely to be poor than the rest of Australians and they appear significantly poorer than the rest even after controlling for education, age, industry, skill and geographical remoteness, suggesting a range of socio-economic issues, including poor health and discrimination.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1543
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Probit-Modell ; Neuseeland ; Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the historical forecast track record. To characterise this risk, recent OECD work constructed fan charts parameterised on historical forecast errors and the probability of a future downturn estimated from a probit model comprising a range of potential macroeconomic and financial early warning indicators. As the probability of a downturn increases the associated fan chart is wider, reflecting increased uncertainty, and more skewed to the downside, reflecting greater downside risks. This paper applies this methodology to New Zealand; although one important difference compared to other OECD economies is that the time span of macroeconomic data without major structural change is significantly shorter. Forecast errors for GDP by the OECD, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and New Zealand Treasury all appear to be non-normally distributed. Fan charts for GDP forecasts from the mid-year 2018 OECD Economic Outlook are symmetric due to the low probability of a downturn. Fan charts estimated for the period preceding the global financial crisis using currently-available data have a downwards skew. However, those estimated using data only available in the lead up to the crisis have many insignificant coefficients, likely due to the structural changes that have occurred in the New Zealand economy since the 1980s.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1576
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a new measure of human capital that works much better in explaining productivity in OECD countries compared to earlier measures of human capital to investigate the educational policy drivers of human capital. A novel methodology is utilised by interacting educational policies, for which time series coverage is very poor, with time-varying core drivers of human capital such as public spending on education. In such a framework, policy effects can only be assessed indirectly as they amplify or attenuate the effect of education spending on human capital. The results suggest that higher attendance at pre-primary education, greater autonomy of schools and universities, a lower student-to-teacher ratio, higher age of first tracking in secondary education and lower barriers to funding to students in tertiary education all tend to boost human capital through amplifying the positive effects of greater public spending on education. Benefits from pre-primary education are particularly high for countries with an above-average share of disadvantaged students. School autonomy yields high benefits especially in countries where schools are subject to external accountability.
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  • 39
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1579
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority of OECD countries, but the magnitude of the effect is typically weak. A corollary is that the effect of labour market slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD countries, a measure of the global output gap is both statistically significant and strongly preferred to a domestic gap measure in explaining the wedge between headline and core inflation, although domestic gaps are strongly preferred in explaining core inflation. Various forms of non-linearity in the Phillips curve provide possible explanations for recent weak inflation outcomes, but statistical testing provides only limited support for such explanations.
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1589
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The trend rise of house prices in many OECD countries suggests weakness in the adjustment of supply to demand. This paper estimates long-term elasticities of housing supply to prices in OECD countries before exploring their drivers with a focus on policies. It finds a significant association between weaker supply responsiveness and a proxy measure for more restrictive land-use regulation. Besides, tighter rent controls are linked with lower supply elasticities. In turn, weak supply responsiveness implies that house prices rise more following stronger demand. The sensitivity of house prices to household income is also higher in countries that provide larger amounts of tax relief for homeowners.
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1592
    Keywords: Economics ; Russian Federation ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Productivity in Russia has fallen steadily over the past 15 years. This paper explores micro-level data to understand the contribution of individual firms to aggregate productivity. Overall, firm-level data corroborate the decline in aggregate productivity and a widening productivity gap against several European countries. They also show that the gap between “the best” and “the rest” has widened in Russia, similar to other countries. Russian markets are quite concentrated, i.e. dominated by few large firms. Larger firms tend to be more productive, but firms at the productivity frontier have become smaller and younger over time, suggesting that more support for young and innovative firms could help raise productivity. Foreign ownership is associated with higher productivity, and there is evidence that foreign firms generate positive productivity spillovers for domestic firms. Service firms belong to the most productive, yet the service sector remains underdeveloped. Mining is also very productive but less than in other countries. Differences in productivity across regions are large, even controlling for many other determinants, suggesting a lack of capital and labour mobility and knowledge transfer across regional borders.
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1534
    Keywords: Steuersystem ; Steuermoral ; Ökosteuer ; Öffentliche Einnahmen ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Indonesia’s government needs more revenue to fund spending that can boost GDP growth, raise well-being and reduce poverty. The tax-to-GDP ratio is low relative to other emerging market economies. The difficulty is to raise revenues without denting growth or worsening inequality. Successive reforms have modernised the tax administration and increased the number of taxpayers. Nonetheless, raising compliance is an ongoing challenge and investing in the tax administration rightly remains a government priority. There is also scope to improve the design of various taxes. Broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes would raise more revenue and reduce distortions. Expanding property taxation, if appropriately implemented, could provide additional funds for local governments. Taxes can also be used more extensively to discourage activities and behaviours with negative health and environmental externalities. Strengthening property rights and fighting illegal extraction would increase revenues from Indonesia’s natural resource wealth. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-indonesia.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1536
    Keywords: Öffentliches Unternehmen ; Verbindlichkeiten ; China ; Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While China’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio is not particularly high, its non-financial corporate debt relative to GDP is higher than in other major economies. State-owned enterprises account for over three quarters of that debt with a size exceeding GDP. This paper provides insights into the size of debt, leverage and debt service burden by various non-financial SOE groupings including by size, extent of state ownership, level of the owner, broad and detailed sector and region. Although the debt stock of local SOEs increased the fastest, firms under government agencies leveraged up more quickly and their debt service burden also grew most rapidly. SOEs in services industries increased their debt fastest, in particular in social services, transportation, real estate and construction. In turn, warehousing and real estate firms have the highest leverage. Firms in the three provinces of Xinjiang, Shanxi and Qinghai rank among the top five in all the three indicators of debt to revenues, leverage and debt service burden. Large SOEs owe most debt and leveraged up, while small and medium-size ones reduced their leverage. The surge in the debt service burden of small SOEs coincided with an increase in state assets in this group of firms. Sector-wise, state assets increased most in competitive industries. Empirical analysis shows that higher leverage and labour productivity are more conducive to a surge in SOE debt. Such surges appear to be triggered by falling interest costs, pointing to the role for easy monetary conditions in the rapid SOE debt accumulation. Recent corporate governance reforms of SOEs will likely act as disciplining device on SOE borrowing.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1537
    Keywords: Technischer Fortschritt ; Digitalisierung ; Globalisierung ; Einkommensverteilung ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Aktivierende Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Bildung ; Qualifikation ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Urbanisierung ; Ballungsraum ; Australien ; Economics ; Australia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Australia has seen large rises in living standards over the last decades across the whole of the income distribution. Technological change and international trade have contributed to this success, but have also brought structural change. Some industries have declined, while others flourished. Furthermore, new technologies and structural change create new skills and new tasks, boosting demand for some jobs, while making others disappear. Although technology and globalisation have not decreased overall employment, certain people, groups, and communities have undergone disruptive change and experienced falling living standards. Some groups face a higher risk of poverty and laid-off workers can have difficulty finding a new job. Well-informed and well-targeted policy is therefore needed to ensure that the benefits of technology and globalisation are widely shared. This paper focuses on policies to ensure that everyone in Australia has the opportunity to benefit from technological change and globalisation. The paper assesses policies relating to three issues: i) labour markets and active labour market policies; ii) education and skills; to ensure adequate skills for accessing good quality jobs; and iii) urban environments, ensuring that Australia's highly urbanised population can adapt to change.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1542
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; Konjunktur ; Zentralbank ; Probit-Modell ; Vergleich ; Schweden ; England ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past forecast errors, but the skew is derived from a probit modelbased assessment of the probability of a future downturn. The probit-based fan charts clearly out-perform the Bank of England and Riksbank approaches when applied to forecasts made immediately preceding the Global Financial Crisis. These examples also highlight weaknesses with the Bank of England and Riksbank approaches. The Riksbank approach implicitly assumes that forecast errors are normally distributed, but over a long track record this is unlikely to be the case because forecasters are generally poor at predicting downturns, which leads to bias and skew in the pattern of forecast errors. Thus, the Riksbank fan chart is neither an accurate representation of past forecast errors, nor is it a reflection of the risk assessment underlying the forecast. The Bank of England approach relies heavily on the judgment of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee to assess risks. However, even when they have correctly foreseen the nature of future risks, the quantitative translation of these risks into the fan chart skew has been too timid. Perhaps one reason for this is that the fan chart prediction intervals based on historical forecast errors already appear quite wide so that inflating them by adding skew may appear embarrassing (at least ex ante). The approach advocated in this paper addresses these weaknesses by recognising that forecast errors are not symmetrical: firstly, this leads to more compressed prediction intervals in the upper part of the fan chart (representing the possibility of under-prediction); and secondly, using the large forecast errors from past downturns to calibrate downward skew clearly supports a more bold approach when there is a risk of a downturn. A weakness of the probit model-based approach is that it will not predict atypical downturns. For example, in the current conjuncture it would not pick up risks associated with a ‘no deal’ Brexit or a global trade war. However, a downturn triggered by atypical events may be more severe if risk factors describing a typical business-financial cycle are also high.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1546
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides guidance for developing country-specific policy recommendations from the broad policy principles of the new OECD Jobs Strategy. To this end, it identifies countries’ main policy challenges and develops broad policy packages to address them. It highlights the importance of considering countries' initial conditions – in terms of the state of the business cycle, fiscal and administrative capacity, past reforms, preferences and demography – for tailoring policy recommendations to country specific challenges, capabilities and needs. It also contains a checklist with key questions for each of the broad dimensions of labour market performance that should be considered when developing country-specific recommendations.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1548
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a novel empirical approach to assess if the development of online platforms affects the productivity of service firms. We build a proxy measure of platform use across four industries (hotels, restaurants, taxis and retail trade) and ten OECD countries using internet search data from Google Trends, which we link to firm-level data on productivity in these industries. We find that platform development supports the productivity of the average incumbent service firm and also stimulates labour reallocation towards more productive firms in these industries. This may notably reflect that platforms’ user review and rating systems reduce information asymmetries between consumers and service providers, enhancing competition between providers. The effects depend on platform type. “Aggregator” platforms that connect incumbent service providers to consumers tend to push up the productivity of incumbents, while more disruptive platforms that enable new types of providers to compete with them (e.g. home sharing, ride hailing) have on average no significant effect on it. Consistent with this, we find that different platform types affect differently the profits, mark-ups, employment and wages of incumbent service firms. Finally, the productivity gains from platforms are lower when a platform is persistently dominant on its market, suggesting that the contestability of platform markets should be promoted.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1552
    Keywords: Economics ; Slovak Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Heavy involvement in international trade and global value chains has been an effective way for promoting Slovakia's economic and social catch-up. Large foreign direct investment inflows have helped develop a competitive export-led manufacturing industry, with a strong specialisation in the automotive and electronics sectors, fostering robust growth and productivity performance with good fiscal and external balance results. However, the benefits of this development strategy have diminished since the 2008-09 crisis and the subsequent slowdown in world trade growth. Moreover, over the years Slovakia’s integration into world trade has remained for a large part based on downstream activities of value chains that incorporate little domestic value added, such as the assembly of imported intermediate goods, and further expansion of this growth model is hindered by employers’ increasing difficulties in finding skilled labour. There is a need to help local firms to better benefit from foreign companies’ know-how, further prepare the workforce for the increasing digitalisation and automation of most industries, promote the diversification of the economy and, in particular, strengthen the role of the services sector. This assessment, which is derived from the first part of this chapter, is followed by a discussion of the changes required to better leverage Slovakia’s experience with global value chains. All in all, a broad range of well-coordinated policies is called for. This entails better adapting the skills of the workforce to the changing needs of the labour market, enhancing the business environment, improving transport infrastructure and stimulating firms’ innovation capacity. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Slovak Republic (http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/slovak-republic-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1554
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1561
    Keywords: Economics ; Spain ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Spain has experienced a dramatic business cycle, starting with a large construction based boom followed by a long recession, resulting in a substantial rise in unemployment, and income and wealth inequality. This paper uses longitudinal data from the Survey of Household Finances over the period 2002 to 2014 to examine the distributions of income and wealth in Spain, as well as the mobility of households within those distributions. Results show an increase in the concentration of both income and wealth following the sharp decline in house prices that occurred since 2008, with house price fluctuations affecting more negatively the young than the old. Furthermore, differences in average income and wealth by education, gender and home ownership status were accentuated during the crisis, with lower and middle group incomes falling on average and top group incomes rising. In addition, higher levels of mobility within the middle of the household wealth distribution are observed than at either the top or bottom, although mobility at the extremes of the distribution increased after 2008. Finally, a number of characteristics of households, including age, property ownership, being employed on a permanent contract and good health, are found to be positively associated with wealth accumulation over time, while having a mortgage is negatively related. Overall, the paper finds it is the young and those with low income, wealth and education, bad health, temporary contracts and a mortgage that became relatively worse off in Spain’s early 21st century boom and bust cycle. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Spain (http://www.oecd.org/economy/spain-economic-snapshot)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1562
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing markets, which are large and subject to sharp swings, shape to a great extent countries’ exposure to economic crises and their capacity to recover from them. This paper analyses the transmission of housing-related shocks to the real economy: it investigates the role that policy plays in (a) mitigating or amplifying shocks and (b) facilitating or hampering a recovery. It considers macroprudential measures, rental regulation, taxation and land use restrictions. The aim is to investigate, which housing policy-related reforms can foster greater economic resilience. Among other results, it finds that a tighter macroprudential stance is generally linked to a lower likelihood of economic crisis and that higher effective rates of housing taxation are associated with smoother housing cycles.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1567
    Keywords: Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A well-functioning justice system is indispensable to business activity and to a society as a whole. Judicial efficiency measured by trial length, one of the essential factors in the effectiveness of the justice system, ensures contract enforcement, which is the basis of market transactions. Judicial efficiency is closely associated with accessibility to judicial services and the certainty of judicial decisions, raising people’s confidence. Portugal has undertaken numerous judicial reforms in the past, to the extent that it is difficult to disentangle and evaluate fully the effects of each reform. Overall, judicial efficiency remains weak, as reflected in the average trial length and bottlenecks in a number of courts. The data collection system, significantly developed as part of the reforms, can be more fully utilised for allocating court resources. The autonomy of the judicial council and court presidents can also be strengthened so that they can effectively manage resources. Individual judges can be better incentivised through performance-oriented evaluation. Competition in the legal profession sector can be enhanced while increasing the transparency of legal services. Also, alternative dispute resolution mechanisms can be developed further, meeting different needs for judicial services, in particular those on insolvency, while alleviating court congestion. Finally, building on past and ongoing reform efforts, the judicial system should continue to improve the capacity to undertake forensic investigations of economic and financial crimes. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (http://www.oecd.org/economy/portugal-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1570
    Keywords: Economics ; Estonia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/estonia-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1571
    Keywords: Economics ; Latvia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Latvia’s productivity growth is held back by weak innovation and inefficient resource allocation. The shortage of skilled workers which constrains innovation and the adoption of digital technologies must be addressed through further alignment of vocational and tertiary education with labour market demand. Strengthening the innovation ecosystem by improving the quality of research and collaboration between firms and research institutions would help to diffuse digital technologies more widely across the economy. Fighting widespread informality, improving the low debt recovery through a more efficient insolvency regime, and reducing substantial state ownership would improve the allocation of resources. Latvia also relies heavily on EU funds to finance its important structural policies. The continuity of the most effective EU funded policy instruments needs to be ensured in the medium term, by integrating them into the national budget. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Latvia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/latvia-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1574
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been in place in the euro area since June 2014. While the NIRP can provide additional monetary accommodation in the situation where the neutral rate of interest is most likely negative, there are also unintended consequences for banks’ profitability and potential financial stability risks associated with this policy. The paper assesses the effect of the NIRP on the net interest rate margins of the euro area banks using quarterly consolidated bank level data for some 50 banking groups directly supervised by the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Since our data set extends to 2018, it allows us to examine the period of negative short-term interest rates separately from the period of low, but positive policy rates. The econometric results confirm the effect of the interest rate level on bank profitability and, in some specifications, also suggest an additional negative effect on bank profitability in the period of negative euro area short-term interest rates. This additional effect of the NIRP is the strongest when looking at the disaggregated components of net interest income, i.e. interest income and interest expense. However, the effects are not particularly robust across various profitability measures and tend to disappear when conditioning on macroeconomic variables, such as expected real GDP growth and inflation expectations. Therefore, in line with other existing studies, we find weak evidence of possible negative effects on bank profitability from keeping rates low for an extended period of time. Statistical analysis of the bank-level data also points to an ongoing compression of non-interest income, in particular for the best performing banks, and a slow recovery in return on total assets among all banks over the analysed period. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Euro Area (https://www.oecd.org/economy/euro-area-and-european-union-economic-snapshot/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris, France : OECD
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1560
    Keywords: Economics ; France ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: L’investissement public a le potentiel de stimuler la demande à court terme, et des infrastructures appropriées peuvent aussi entraîner des gains de productivité et contribuer à rendre la croissance économique plus inclusive en garantissant une égalité d’accès au marché du travail, à l’éducation et aux soins de santé. Les investissements publics de la France sont élevés, et son stock de capital public est important. En particulier, le réseau d’infrastructures de la France est bien développé, et très bien classé si on le compare à celui d’autres pays. Pour autant, dans certains secteurs, le manque d’investissements d’entretien et de modernisation a sans doute nui à l’efficacité du capital investi dans les infrastructures existantes. Pour pouvoir bénéficier pleinement de ses investissements publics, la France doit renforcer et développer l’ensemble de sa stratégie pour relever plusieurs défis, consistant notamment à promouvoir les considérations d’efficience socio-économique dans le choix de ses projets d’investissement, à harmoniser les procédures s’étalant sur toute la durée de vie des investissements entre les différents secteurs et niveaux administratifs, et à concentrer les investissements de certains secteurs sur l’entretien et la qualité du stock de capital. En outre, comme les collectivités locales sont responsables de la plupart des investissements publics, il sera utile de poursuivre les efforts visant à répartir clairement les responsabilités entre les différents échelons administratifs pour pouvoir bénéficier d’économies d’échelle et de gamme. L’investissement public devrait aussi viser à atteindre les objectifs fixés dans les domaines de l’environnement, du numérique, de la recherche et de l’innovation pour permettre à la France de respecter ses engagements nationaux et internationaux et garantir une croissance plus vigoureuse et plus durable. Les choix opérés devront faire une place à l’investissement privé pour permettre la réalisation de ces objectifs et stimuler la croissance potentielle, notamment en développant une liste de projets prêts à financer et en ajustant de manière dynamique le soutien public aux politiques en matière d’énergie et de changement climatique. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France 2019 (http://www.oecd.org/fr/economie/france-en-un-coup-d-oeil/)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in englischer Sprache
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2019, 2
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: As well-being has matured as a statistical and measurement agenda, it has become increasingly relevant as a “compass” for policy, with a growing number of countries using well-being metrics to guide decision-making and inform budgetary processes. One remaining challenge has consisted in providing policy-makers with a better understanding of the linkages between the drivers of well-being and economic growth. This paper develops the concept of an “Economy of Well-being” as a basis for highlighting these linkages and showing how policy can most effectively leverage them. The paper defines an economy of well-being around the idea of a “virtuous circle” in which individual well-being and long-term economic growth are mutually reinforcing. It also explores the characteristics of an economy of well-being and the conditions under which it can be sustained. Secondly, based on a survey of existing empirical evidence, the paper contributes to outline how economies of well-being can be built. It provides analysis of several important channels through which economic growth and well-being support and reinforce one another, focusing on the multidimensional impact of policies in four areas that research has shown to be important for well-being: Education and Skills; Health; Social Protection and Redistribution; and Gender Equality.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1575
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper calculates new measures of human capital. Contrary to the existing literature, they are based on realistic rates of return to education, which are allowed to vary substantially across countries and to some extent over time. The new measures perform well in regression analysis explaining productivity across OECD countries and over time. In OECD samples, coefficient estimates are broadly consistent with the private returns underlying the construction of the new measures of human capital. In a wider sample of countries, most estimates imply additional positive social returns.
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1581
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper documents recent extensions and revisions made to the model underlying the long-run global macroeconomic scenarios that are published every few years. First, a fiscal block is added for 11 countries that previously lacked one. Second, public pension expenditure projections are made endogenous to the projected ratio of retirees to workers and to a hypothesis on the future evolution of benefit ratios. Cross-country differences in projected public pension expenditure thus reflect many factors, including the speed of population ageing, the evolution of employment rates for older people, especially females, and rules regarding the evolution of statutory retirement ages. Third, revised public health expenditure projections introduce a higher income elasticity in middle-income than high-income countries and makes the excess of health care inflation over GDP inflation (Baumol effect) endogenous to the projected labour productivity growth rate. And fourth, the determination of long-term interest rates is revised to associate the fiscal risk premium to net, as opposed to gross, government debt, and make its size conditional on euro area membership, the quality of public governance and the occurrence of systemic banking crises, while allowing a flight-to-safety effect during such crises to lower bond yields in countries that are providers of global safe assets.
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1584
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This study provides the first evidence that air pollution causes economy-wide reductions in market economic activity based on data for Europe. The analysis combines satellite-based measures of air pollution with statistics on regional economic activity at the NUTS-3 level throughout the European Union over the period 2000-15. An instrumental variables approach based on thermal inversions is used to identify the causal impact of air pollution on economic activity. The estimates show that a 1μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration (or a 10% increase at the sample mean) causes a 0.8% reduction in real GDP that same year. Ninety-five per cent of this impact is due to reductions in output per worker, which can occur through greater absenteeism at work or reduced labour productivity. Therefore, the results suggest that public policies to reduce air pollution may contribute positively to economic growth. Indeed, the large economic benefits from pollution reduction uncovered in the study compare with relatively small abatement costs. Thus, more stringent air quality regulations could be warranted based solely on economic grounds, even ignoring the large benefits in terms of avoided mortality.
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1583
    Keywords: Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: China has surpassed the United States in patent applications and has become world leader. Strong patenting activity, however, did not lead to strong productivity growth. The delinking of patenting activity from productivity growth could be explained by quality and relevance issues. Although the number of patents has been soaring, few are genuine inventions. Relatively low utilisation rates of patents point to a low degree of relevance. This paper uses a representative survey of Chinese patenting firms to provide a detailed picture of the patenting landscape along the dimensions of geographical areas, detailed industrial sectors, traditional and modern industries as defined by the Chinese government, firm age, size and ownership. It also overviews government subsidies across firms. Transport equipment makers hold most patents per firm, followed by electronics manufacturers. State-owned firms spend more on R&D per patent, but hold fewer patents per researcher than private or foreign-invested firms. High patenting performance and government support are not necessarily linked to high utilisation of patents. Smaller, younger and private firms expect a higher return on their patents and so do exterior design patent holders. Furthermore, the paper examines what drives patenting activity. Higher R&D spending by the firm and higher share of researchers in its workforce tend to be associated with higher patents per employee. Smaller and older firms tend to patent more, and government support also appears to matter. Exterior design patents are associated with different firm characteristics: R&D intensity is lower and government support matters less. Most firms consider IPR protection insufficient and the share of firms having experienced patent infringement is the greatest among the largest firms. Many of them do not do anything once their rights are infringed as they do not expect effective remedy. Instead of patenting, which may not provide sufficient protection from imitators, they adopt other strategies like reaping the first mover advantage to market their goods or sign confidentiality agreements with their staff or contracts on commercial secrets. This Working Paper relates to the 2019 Economic Survey of China (http://www.oecd.org/economy/china-economic-snapshot/).
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1588
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper produces new evidence and stylised facts on housing, wealth accumulation and wealth distribution, relying on an in-depth analysis of micro-based data on household wealth across OECD countries. The analysis addresses several questions: i) How is homeownership and housing tenure distributed across the population along various socio-economic characteristics such as income, wealth and age? What is the weight of housing in households’ balance sheets and how does this vary across socio-economic groups? ii) What is the incidence of mortgage debt across households and how does this vary across socio-economic groups? What is the impact of mortgage debt on access to homeownership and wealth accumulation, and on debt overburden and financial risks among vulnerable groups? iii) Is housing a vehicle for wealth accumulation? Can it be a barrier to residential mobility? iv) Is there a link between homeownership and wealth inequality? Between inequality in housing wealth and in total wealth? A key policy issue addressed in this paper is whether and how housing-related policies affect wealth distribution. Another important issue is whether housing-related policies raise potential trade-offs between equity, or inequality reduction, and other policy objectives such as employment and productivity growth as well as macroeconomic resilience. Informed by the stylised facts and existing evidence, this paper discusses preliminary policy implications of housing reform to promote inclusiveness and social mobility, to enhance efficiency in the allocation of labour and capital and to strengthen macroeconomic resilience.
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1515
    Keywords: EU-Emissionshandel ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Treibhausgas-Emissionen ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the joint impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Europe’s main climate change policy, on carbon emissions and economic performance of regulated companies. The impact on emissions is analysed using installation-level carbon emissions from national Polluting Emissions Registries from France, Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom complemented with data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR). The impact on firm performance is analysed using firm-level data for all countries covered by the EU ETS. A matching methodology exploiting installation-level inclusion criteria combined with difference-in-differences is used to estimate the policy’s causal impact on installations’ emissions and on firms’ revenue, assets, profits and employment. We find that the EU ETS has induced carbon emission reductions in the order of -10% between 2005 and 2012, but had no negative impact on the economic performance of regulated firms. These results demonstrate that concerns that the EU ETS would come at a cost in terms of competitiveness have been vastly overplayed. In fact, we even find that the EU ETS led to an increase in regulated firms’ revenues and fixed assets. We explore various explanations for these findings.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1517
    Keywords: 1995 - 2017 ; Internationale Konjunktur ; Dynamische Wirtschaftstheorie ; Vergleich ; Schwellenländer ; Industrieländer ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: We estimate dynamic factor models for two sub-samples between 1995 and 2017 for up to 42 advanced and emerging-market economies to investigate changes in the contribution of global and regional factors to fluctuations in real GDP per capita growth, inflation, 10-year government bond yields and equity prices. The combined average contribution of global and regional factors in explaining fluctuations of GDP growth and inflation increased between 1995-2006 and 2007-17. In contrast, for financial variables, the role of country-specific factors strengthened between these two periods. The general findings are robust to alternative specifications of the lag structure, data frequency and the country composition of the largest region. Country-specific factors explain a higher share of variation of financial variables in emerging-market economies compared with advanced economies. For all variables, there is large cross-country heterogeneity regarding the level of contributions of specific factors and their evolution over time.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1512
    Keywords: 2005 - 2017 ; Selbstständige ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using cross-country time series panel regressions for the last two decades, this paper seeks to identify the main policy and institutional factors that explain the share of self-employment across European countries. It looks at the aggregate share of self-employed as well as its breakdown by age, skill and gender. The generosity of unemployment benefits, and to a lesser extent, spending on active labour market policies appear to be robust determinants of the long-term share of self-employed in European countries. No significant relation is found between the stringency of employment protection and aggregate self-employment. However, there are significant, and oppositely signed, impacts on high- and low-skilled self-employed separately. Both the tax wedge and the minimum wage appear to be positively related to the share of self-employed in the long term, but the relation holds for some categories of workers only.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 66
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1516
    Keywords: Bildungswesen ; Berufsbildung ; Frühkindliche Bildung ; Qualifikation ; Deutschland ; Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Cognitive skills, such as reading and numeric skills, are key determinants of wages, employment and long-term economic growth. Good cognitive skills also reduce poverty risk and improve non-material wellbeing, such as health and social cohesion. Non-cognitive skills, such as skills to use information and communication technology as well as managerial skills, also help workers adapt to new technologies and globalisation. In Germany cognitive skills among adults are above OECD average, but weaker than in leading economies, especially among individuals with low and middle qualifications. Much progress has been made to improve learning outcomes of youth with disadvantaged socio-economic background. Nonetheless, high-quality childcare, early childhood and full-day primary education still need to expand. The vocational education system is very successful in integrating young people well in the labour market. Strengthening general education within the successful vocational education and training system could help ensure the capacity of graduates to adapt to technological change at higher age in the future. Participation in life-long learning could be encouraged by better addressing individual training needs. This could improve prospects for adults without professional qualifications. Women’s skills are used less well than men’s, calling for policies to address gender imbalances in the labour market. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Germany (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-germany.htm)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris, France : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1520
    Keywords: Einwanderung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Soziale Integration ; Kanada (West) ; Economics ; Canada ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Canada’s immigration policy aims to promote economic development by selecting immigrants with high levels of human capital, to reunite families and to respond to foreign crises and offer protection to endangered people. Economic-class immigrants, who are selected for their skills, are by far the largest group. The immigration system has been highly successful and is well run. Outcomes are monitored and policies adjusted to ensure that the system’s objectives are met. A problematic development, both from the point of view of immigrants’ well-being and increasing productivity, is that their initial earnings in Canada relative to the native-born fell sharply in recent decades to levels that are too low to catch up with those of the comparable native-born within immigrants’ working lives. Important causes of the fall include weaker official language skills and a decline in returns to pre-immigration labour market experience. Canada has responded by modifying its immigration policy over the years to select immigrants with better earnings prospects, most recently with the introduction in 2015 of the Express Entry system. It has also developed a range of settlement programmes and initiatives to facilitate integration. This chapter looks at options for further adjusting the system to enhance the benefits it generates.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1524
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Dienstleistungshandel ; Prognoseverfahren ; Dynamische Wirtschaftstheorie ; Markov-Kette ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a multidimensional approach, including Bayesian model averaging techniques, dynamic correlations and Granger non-causality tests in a linear VAR framework. To overcome real-time forecasting challenges, the dynamic factor model is extended to account for mixed frequencies, to deal with asynchronous data publication and to include hard and survey data along with leading indicators. Nonlinearities are addressed with a Markov switching model. Simulations analysis in pseudo real-time suggests that: i) the global trade index is a useful tool to track and forecast world trade in real time; ii) the model is able to infer global trade cycles precisely and better than the few competing alternatives; and iii) global trade finance conditions seem to lead the trade cycle, in line with the theoretical literature.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1526
    Keywords: 1995 - 2015 ; Wettbewerb ; Exportwirtschaft ; Internationale Arbeitsteilung ; Schwellenländer ; Industrieländer ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The rapid integration of emerging market economies (EMEs) into world trade over the past three decades has raised widespread concerns about the effects this is having on trade-exposed sectors in advanced OECD countries. An analysis of international trade patterns of over 4000 products between 1995 and 2015 shows that the export product overlap between advanced OECD economies and EMEs has been increasing. However, the product overlap between advanced countries is still higher and increasing faster, suggesting that competitive pressures in export product markets on advanced economies is mainly coming from other OECD members. Regression analysis corroborates this finding, supporting the idea that competition from EMEs remains relatively moderate. Regression analysis show that a move to specialise in a product by the United States exerts about twice as much competitive pressure as a similar decision in China. However, competition effects on average are small compared to changes in world demand as drivers of country competitiveness at the individual product level. The negative effect of a one standard deviation decrease in world demand for a product exerts 8 times more pressure than a one standard deviation increase in specialisation of the United States for that product. In short, specialising in what the world wants to buy remains the key for export performance.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1528
    Keywords: Unternehmensgründung ; Unternehmenswachstum ; Arbeitsnachfrage ; Wirtschaftsdaten ; Südafrika ; Economics ; South Africa ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Until recently a lack of data meant that little was known about the distribution of firms and firm dynamics in South Africa. A new firm-level panel dataset based on tax data creates opportunities to better understand how firms enter, grow and exit. By using the OECD’s DynEmp framework, which was designed to create harmonised variables based on confidential firm-level data, this paper provides new insights about the dynamics of firms in South Africa and how these compare to other countries. One concerning finding is that the entry rate of formal sector firms was probably below the exit rate in recent years, which means that firms are growing older. The relatively low start-up rate compared to other countries together with the higher average firm size of entrants are consistent with the low rates of entrepreneurial activity and the presence of barriers to firm entry highlighted in the existing literature on the South African economy. As in other countries, young firms have disproportionately contributed to employment growth and remained net job creators even as GDP growth slowed. Nonetheless, large firms are particularly prominent in the South African economy, including as net job creators.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1530
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; Industrie ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Lohn ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Lohnrigidität ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The increase of emerging market economies in international trade and rapid rise in global trade intensity over the past three decades has been accompanied by growing, regionally concentrated, discontent with trade in advanced OECD countries. One of the main concerns is the negative effects of growing import competition on employment. This paper focuses on manufacturing sector employment because of its high trade exposure and potential for wider spillovers. It finds that while trade appears to have only a minor association with manufacturing employment shares at the national level compared with technology, trade has an important role in regional labour market developments due to the geographical concentration of industrial activities. The "sticky" nature of manufacturing employment and sometimes inefficient inter-regional migration mean that trade shocks to local manufacturing can affect entire regional labour markets, leading to widening regional inequalities. Policies should, in particular, focus on boosting regional resilience to industry related shocks, whether they come from trade or technology by building local capacity, both in terms of people – more educated labour is more mobile across jobs – and innovation.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1514
    Keywords: Umweltmanagement ; Performance-Messung ; Unternehmenserfolg ; Mikrodaten ; Bibliometrie ; Umweltpolitik ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This article reviews the empirical literature combining economic and environmental performance data at the micro-level, i.e. firm- or facility-level. The literature has generally found a positive and statistically significant correlation between economic performance, as measured by stock market returns, and environmental performance, as measured by emissions of pollutants or adoption of international environmental standards. The main reason for this finding seems to be that firms that reduce their material and energy costs experience both better economic performance and lower emissions. There is also evidence that greener firms are able to attract more productive employees and face smaller costs of capital, and that the introduction of green products enhances firms’ profitability. Only a small and recent literature analyses the joint causal impact of environmental regulations on environmental and economic performance. Interestingly, this literature shows that environmental regulations tend to improve environmental performance while not weakening economic performance. However, the evidence so far is limited to a handful of environmental regulations that are not extremely stringent, so the result cannot be easily generalized. More research is needed to assess the joint effects of environmental regulations on environmental and economic performance, to explore the heterogeneity of these effects across sectors, countries and types of policies, and to understand which policy designs allow improving environmental quality while not altering the economic performance of regulated businesses.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 73
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris, France : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1519
    Keywords: Frauen ; Junge Arbeitskräfte ; Ältere Menschen ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Kinderbetreuung ; Elternzeit ; Gleichberechtigung ; Berufsbildung ; Altersvorsorge ; Häusliche Pflege ; Kanada ; Economics ; Canada ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Women, youth and seniors face barriers to economic inclusion in Canada, with considerable scope to improve their labour market outcomes. There has been no progress in shrinking the gender employment gap since 2009, and women, particularly mothers, continue to earn significantly less than men, in part due to a large gap in unpaid childcare responsibilities. Outside the province of Québec, low (but increasing) rates of government support for childcare should be expanded considerably, as should fathers’ low take-up of parental leave. Skills development should be prioritised to arrest declining skills among youth and weak wage growth among young males with low educational attainment. Fragmented labour market information needs to be consolidated to address wage penalties associated with the widespread prevalence of qualifications mismatch. Growth in old-age poverty should be tackled through further increases in basic pension payments over time. Linking changes in the age of eligibility for public pensions to life expectancy would boost growth by increasing employment of older Canadians still willing and able to work. For all three groups, well-targeted expansions of in-work tax benefits and active labour market spending have the potential to increase employment.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1522
    Keywords: Gesundheitswesen ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Gesundheitspolitik ; Arzneimittel ; Gesundheitskosten ; Tschechien ; Economics ; Czech Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Czech health care system is doing well in terms of health outcomes compared to other Central East European economies that inherited similar health systems after the transition and has been converging to OECD averages. However, benchmarking the Czech health system to countries with comparable institutional setting points to potential for efficiency gains. This paper assesses the performance and emerging key challenges of the Czech health system, and provides recommendations to adapt the system to remain effective and financially sustainable in the context of an ageing society. Further, the contribution of various disincentives in the system on the supply and the demand side of health care are discussed. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Czech Republic. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-czech-republic.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1523
    Keywords: 2004 - 2015 ; Regionales Wachstum ; Öffentliche Investition ; Wirtschaftliche Konvergenz ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Wachstumstheorie ; Russland ; Economics ; Russian Federation ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Russia is a federation of more than 80 regions spanning across a huge territory. Natural resource endowment, inherited industrial specialization, remoteness and climate conditions contribute to large regional disparities. This paper presents an empirical framework model for assessing determinants of regional growth in Russia between 2004 and 2015 with an extension to include sub-national fiscal policies. Baseline results show convergence rates of regional GDP per capita in line with the 2% “iron law of convergence” between countries. Capital investment, and public investment in particular, is a stronger driver of regional growth than in most OECD countries. Natural-resource rich regions are growing faster, and oil price shocks have little economic impact in these regions, pointing at Russia’s centralized tax and transfer system. Subnational current government expenditure is associated with lower growth and slower regional convergence, suggesting low sub-national spending efficiency. There is also weak evidence that sub-national investment yields higher returns than federal government investment. Transfers have mixed effects depending on their nature. Budget equalization grants tend to slow regional growth as they reduce incentives to improve spending efficiency. On the other hand earmarked matching grants tend to spur growth and convergence as they direct resources towards more productive spending.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1527
    Keywords: Qualifikation ; Atypische Beschäftigung ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Aktivierende Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Niederlande ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Dutch labour market has recovered and the unemployment rate has been converging towards pre-crisis levels. Non-standard forms of work have expanded with a strong trend towards self-employment and an increased reliance on temporary contracts. These developments may reflect a preference of some individuals for a more flexible working relationship, but they could also lower job security and job quality for others. Policies need to protect vulnerable groups in the more dynamic working environment without creating barriers to labour mobility and flexibility of the overall labour market. To improve the fairness of the tax system, policies should ensure a more level playing field between workers on different types of contracts. Regulatory policies should aim at raising labour market mobility to improve the matching of skills to jobs by easing the protection on permanent employment contracts and through a more targeted approach to activation policies for disadvantaged groups. Finally, measures should improve the skills of individuals in vulnerable groups to enhance their opportunities to find better jobs. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of the Netherlands 2018 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-the netherlands.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1529
    Keywords: Berufsbildung ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Aktivierende Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Arbeitnehmerschutz ; Arbeitsmarktintegration ; Litauen ; Economics ; Lithuania ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Productivity growth in Lithuania has slowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, holding back income convergence and making it harder to reduce further the relatively high inequality and poverty. A comprehensive approach is required to address productivity and inclusiveness challenges, building on their synergies. The government has taken measures to this end, with the New Social Model at the core, but efforts need to continue. Reforms should focus on additional improvements in the business environment by easing further regulations on the employment of non-EU workers and reducing informality. Initiatives to improve the governance of state-owned enterprises are welcome and need to continue. Improving access to finance and ensuring effective bankruptcy procedures are key to boosting firm dynamism, as are measures to encourage business-research sector collaboration on innovation. Addressing large skills mismatch is also a priority. Increasing the market-relevance of the education system is important. More and better-quality jobs in the formal sector, especially for the low-skilled, are key to inclusiveness and well-being, while more effective support and active labour market programmes would help combating poverty. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Lithuania (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-ireland.htm)
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1531
    Keywords: Dienstleistungsgesellschaft ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Bibliometrie ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Services employ an ever-increasing share of workers in all OECD countries. This trend is likely to continue as it reflects deep structural forces, such as increasing consumption of services with rising incomes and population ageing and the growing role of intangible assets. Services are very diverse, but overall tend to have weaker productivity levels and growth rates than manufacturing. As a result, the shift to services entails a moderate but persistent drag on productivity growth. Still, there are reasons to hope for a pick-up in service productivity in the future, including thanks to new technologies (e.g. digital platforms, artificial intelligence). This concerns both “knowledge intensive” services (e.g. information and communication) and less knowledge intensive ones (e.g. personal transport). Harnessing this productivity potential requires adjusting policies to foster innovation and efficient use of new technologies, enhance competitive forces by reducing information asymmetries, barriers to entry and switching costs, and increase the tradability of services within countries and across borders.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1513
    Keywords: Kredit ; Crowdfunding ; Finanztechnologie ; Kapitalmarktrecht ; Markteintritt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In a growing number of OECD countries policymakers are designing specific regulations for lending-based crowdfunding platforms. In March 2018, as a part of its Fintech action plan, the European Commission also presented its proposal for the EU-wide passporting regime. To evaluate these new regimes, this study collects information about the regulation of lending-based crowdfunding platforms in 17 OECD countries and proposes a theoretical framework to reflect about different regulatory regimes. In this context, we explore market failures in lending-based crowdfunding and identify regulatory challenges. Although lending-based crowdfunding platforms do not technically perform risk and maturity transformation, in some countries, flexible regulation allows them to experiment with different business models to provide services of credit risk management (via risk grades, provision funds, automated lending) and liquidity provision (via secondary markets). These platforms could perform the same functions as banks in the future, but there are theoretical reasons to believe that platform-based intermediation could be more stable than banking intermediation. The success of lending-based crowdfunding platforms hinges on their ability to solve moral hazard issues and overcome significant barriers to entry related to scale and scope economies, adverse selection, as well as funding cost advantage of incumbent large banks. There are also risks related to an excessive reliance on funding of leveraged and ‘too big to fail’ institutional investors that are prone to runs and moral hazard problems.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1518
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Branchenentwicklung ; Brexit ; EU-Mitgliedschaft ; EU-Staaten ; CGE-Modell ; Niederlande ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in the Netherlands. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement between the negotiating parties, the choice has been made to assume a worst case outcome where trade relations between the United Kingdom and EU are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides an upper bound estimate of the potential negative economic impact stemming from disruptions in trade. Any final trade agreement that would result in closer relationships between the United Kingdom and the EU could reduce this negative impact. Simulations using the METRO model suggest that from an increase in tariff and non-tariff measures (NTM’s) Dutch exports to the UK would fall by 17% and GDP declines by 0.7% in the medium term compared to baseline. This effect is from the trade channel absent any change in foreign direct investment (FDI) or productivity. The Dutch agri-food sector would experience a 22% fall in its UK exports. There are some sectors that gain from the export opportunities provided by Brexit, notably financial services and transport.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 81
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1521
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Konjunktur ; Probit-Modell ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting whether risks are tilted to the downside – is derived from a probit model-based assessment of the probability of a future downturn. This approach is applied to each of the G7 countries separately, with combinations of variables found to be useful in predicting future downturns at different horizons up to 8 quarters: at short horizons of 2-4 quarters, a flattening or inverted yield curve slope, recent sharp falls in house prices, share prices or credit; at longer horizons of 6-8 quarters, sustained strong growth in house prices, share prices and credit; and at all horizons, a tight labour market and rapid growth in OECD-wide (or in some cases euro-wide) house prices, share prices or credit. The in-sample fit of the probit models appears reasonably good for all G7 countries. The predicted probabilities from the probit models provide a graduated assessment of downturn risk, which is reflected in the degree of skew in the fan chart. Fan charts computed on an out-of-sample basis around pre-crisis OECD forecasts published in June 2008 encompass the extreme outturns associated with the Global Financial Crisis for five of the G7 countries. A weakness of the approach is that, although it predicts a clear majority of past downturns, it will not predict atypical downturns. For example, in the current conjuncture, it is unlikely that current concerns about risks associated with Brexit, an escalation of trade tensions or spillovers from emerging markets would be picked up by the models. At the same time, a severe downturn triggered by such atypical events might be more severe if more typical risk factors are also high.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1525
    Keywords: EU-Strukturfonds ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftsdaten ; Statistische Methode ; Lettland ; Economics ; Latvia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of spending the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) on productivity, employment and other performance indicators of Latvian firms. After controlling for the fact that more productive and larger firms are more likely to benefit from ERDF resources, we find that participation in projects co-financed by the ERDF increases firms’ employment, turnover and capital stock per employee immediately, while it raises their productivity only three years after the launch of such projects. Furthermore, participants that were initially less productive, larger, less capital intensive and more financially leveraged enjoy larger productivity gains. Also, financing capital investment through the ERDF does not result in any productivity gains compared to the case when it is financed through private funding. However, it results in a larger increase in employment, which is possibly partly due to the firm’s plan to increase employment being one of important criteria for selecting the ERDF beneficiaries.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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