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  • Kose, M. Ayhan  (32)
  • World Bank Group  (2)
  • Matsuoka, Hideaki  (1)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Weakness in Investment Growth : Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (75 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
    Abstract: Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7990
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
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    Online Resource
    A Decade After the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Abstract: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well. However, following a short-lived initial rebound in activity in 2010, the global economy and, especially, emerging market and developing economies, have suffered a decade of weak growth despite unprecedented monetary policy accommodation and several rounds of fiscal stimulus in major economies. A Decade After the Global Recession provides the first comprehensive stock-taking of the decade since the global recession for emerging market and developing economies. It reviews the experience of emerging market and developing economies during and after the recession. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and be prepared should another global downturn occur
    DOI: 10.1596/32641
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration (2009)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Kose, M. Ayhan Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration
    Keywords: 1975-2004 ; Finanzmarkt ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; Marktintegration ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Institutionenökonomik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Globalisierung ; Welt
    Abstract: The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality - the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5149
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Understanding inflation in emerging and developing economies (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8761
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ha, Jongrim Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs, disinflation occurred across all regions. This paper presents a summary of a recent book, 'Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies', that analyzes this remarkable achievement. The findings suggest that many EMDEs enjoy the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies. In EMDEs that do not operate inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate movements tend to have larger and more persistent effects on inflation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8761
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Global recessions (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9172
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kose, M. Ayhan Global Recessions
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global gross domestic product contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity. The global recessions were highly synchronized internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by the global financial crisis, was by far the deepest and most synchronized of the four recessions. As the epicenter of the crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post-war period in advanced economies, as many of them have struggled to overcome the legacies of the crisis. In contrast, most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery than after previous global recessions
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9172
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? : International Evidence (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (27 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Islamaj, Ergys How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? : International Evidence
    Abstract: This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to fluctuations in income. The paper examines the empirical validity of this prediction using an array of indicators of financial integration for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1960-2011. Two main results are reported. First, the sensitivity of consumption to income has declined over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. The decline has been more pronounced in advanced economies than in developing ones. Second, the regression analysis indicates that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with a lower sensitivity of consumption to income. This finding is robust to the use of a wide range of empirical specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls, such as interest rates and outcome-based measures of financial integration. The paper also discusses other potential sources of the temporal changes in the sensitivity of consumption to income
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7659
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
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    Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions? (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8784
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The fiscal position can affect fiscal multipliers through two channels. Through the Ricardian channel, households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments when fiscal stimulus is implemented from a weak fiscal position. Through the interest rate channel, fiscal stimulus from a weak fiscal position heightens investors' concerns about sovereign credit risk, raises economy-wide borrowing cost, and reduces private domestic demand. The paper documents empirically the relevance of these two channels using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model. It finds that fiscal multipliers tend to be smaller when fiscal positions are weak than strong
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8784
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Debt and financial crises (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9116
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wee Chian Koh Debt and Financial Crises
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises - after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service cover, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9116
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 9
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    Emerging and developing economies : ten years after the Global Recession (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Prospects Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9148
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als M. Ayhan Kose Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Although emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the global recession a decade ago relatively well, they now appear less well placed to cope with the substantial downside risks facing the global economy. In many EMDEs, the room for monetary and fiscal policies to respond to shocks has eroded; underlying growth potential has slowed; and the momentum for improving policy frameworks, institutions, and business climates seems to have slackened. The experience of the 2009 global recession highlights once again the critical role of policy room in shielding economic activity during adverse shocks. The subsequent decade of anemic growth underlines the need for sound policy frameworks, institutions, and business environments to promote sustained growth. With the global growth outlook weakening and vulnerabilities rising, the policy priority for EMDEs is now to improve resilience to shocks and to lift long-term growth prospects
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9148
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies (2016)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Huidrom, Raju Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies
    Abstract: This paper presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. These economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008-09, which was then used for stimulus. This reflects a more general trend over the past three decades, where availability of fiscal space has been associated with increasingly countercyclical (or less procyclical) fiscal policy. However, fiscal space has shrunk since the Great Recession and has not returned to pre-crisis levels. Emerging and developing economies face downside risks to growth and prospects of rising financing costs. In the event that these cause a sharp cyclical slowdown, policy makers may need to employ fiscal policy as a possible tool for stimulus. An important prerequisite for fiscal policy to be effective is that these economies have the necessary fiscal space to employ countercyclical policies. Over the medium-term, credible and well-designed institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and medium-term expenditure frameworks, can help build fiscal space and strengthen policy outcomes
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7725
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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