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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (140)
  • Paris : OECD  (140)
  • Economics  (140)
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  • 1
    ISBN: 9789264062382 , 9789264085169 , 9789264298804
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (454 Seiten) , Diagramme
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Atkinson, Giles, 1969 - Cost benefit analysis and the environment
    RVK:
    Keywords: Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ; Umweltökonomik ; Environment ; Governance ; Economics ; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ; Umweltökonomik ; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ; Umweltökonomie
    Abstract: This book explores recent developments in environmental cost-benefit analysis (CBA). This is defined as the application of CBA to projects or policies that have the deliberate aim of environmental improvement or are actions that affect, in some way, the natural environment as an indirect consequence. It builds on the previous OECD book by David Pearce et al. (2006), which took as its starting point that a number of developments in CBA, taken together, altered the way in which many economists would argue CBA should be carried out and that this was particularly so in the context of policies and projects with significant environmental impacts. It is a primary objective of the current book not only to assess more recent advances in CBA theory but also to identify how specific developments illustrate key thematic narratives with implications for practical use of environmental CBA in policy formulation and appraisal of investment projects. Perhaps the most significant development is the contribution of climate economics in its response to the challenge of appraising policy actions to mitigate (or adapt to) climate change. Work in this area has increased the focus on how to value costs and benefits that occur far into the future, particularly by showing how conventional procedures for establishing the social discount rate become highly problematic in this intergenerational context and what new approaches might be needed. The contribution of climate economics has also entailed thinking further about uncertainty in CBA, especially where uncertain outcomes might be associated with large (and adverse) impacts.
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 2
    ISBN: 9789264298705
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (185 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD skills studies
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Skills strategy implementation guidance for Portugal
    Keywords: Erwachsenenbildung ; Portugal ; Education ; Employment ; Economics ; Portugal ; Portugal ; Erwachsenenbildung
    Abstract: Raising skills is critical to Portugal’s economic success and social well-being. As globalisation and digitalisation are transforming how people work, how societies function and how individuals interact, Portugal needs to equip its entire population with strong skills so that they can benefit from new opportunities. Portugal has put education and skills at the forefront of the political agenda for many years, but more than half of adults have not completed upper secondary education. With the population ageing rapidly and a growing skills divide between generations, Portugal needs to further strengthen its adult-learning system. To make change happen, Portugal will need a clear vision for the adult-learning system and a strong partnership between all stakeholders – all levels of government, education and training providers, employers, trade unions, the non-profit sector and learners. This report outlines areas where the accessibility, flexibility and quality of the adult-learning system can be improved, where governance and financing mechanisms can be strengthened, and provides examples of international and national good practice to help achieve these objectives. The report provides a series of concrete actions to help Portugal improve the adult-learning system and in turn enhance economic growth and social cohesion.
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    ISBN: 9789264302549
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (179 Seiten) , Diagramme
    Series Statement: Multi-Dimensional Review of Panama volume 2
    Series Statement: OECD Development Pathways
    Series Statement: Multi-dimensional review of Panama
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Multi-dimensional review of Panama ; Volume 2: In-depth analysis and recommendations
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Multi-dimensional review of Panama ; Volume 2: In-depth analysis and recommendations
    Keywords: Panama Economic conditions ; Panama Economic policy ; Congresses ; Panama Social conditions ; Congresses ; Panama Economic policy ; Electronic books ; Education ; Finance and Investment ; Governance ; Taxation ; Development ; Economics ; Panama
    Abstract: Panama has achieved socio-economic improvements in recent decades thanks to strong economic growth and consequent poverty reduction. Its growth model is characterised by a dual economy in which a small number of activities, including those related to the Canal and Special Economic Zones, have exhibited high productivity growth but limited job creation. Panama should now embark on a new reform agenda to become a sustainable and inclusive high-income country. This report urges greater productivity in sectors that contribute to job formalisation to reduce disparities in income and among regions. As developing these policies requires further resources, taxation system and private sector involvement through public-private partnerships should also be reinforced. Focusing on skills and jobs, regional development and development financing, the volume provides analysis and recommendations on three areas which are key for Panama.
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 4
    ISBN: 9789264263420
    Language: German
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (236 Seiten) , Diagramme
    Edition: Überarbeitete Ausgabe
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Dare to share
    Keywords: Employment ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Germany ; Deutschland ; Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf
    Abstract: Was sind die Hintergründe und entscheidenden Fragen bei der Förderung einer partnerschaftlichen Aufgabenteilung in Familie und Beruf in Deutschland? Dieser Bericht soll die Politikverantwortlichen in Deutschland darin bestärken, die wichtigen seit Mitte der 2000er Jahre eingeleiteten Reformen weiterzuführen, um die Vereinbarkeit von beruflichen und familiären Pflichten für Väter und Mütter zu verbessern. Für die Familien heißt das: „Mehr Partnerschaftlichkeit wagen“. Die deutschen Erfahrungen werden dabei im internationalen Vergleich untersucht, u.a. mit Blick auf Frankreich und die nordischen Länder, die seit langem eine Politik zur Förderung der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf sowie zur Stärkung der Geschlechtergleichstellung verfolgen. Der Bericht beginnt mit einem Übersichtskapitel, in dem erklärt wird, warum und wie sich Partnerschaftlichkeit für Familien, Kinder sowie Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft insgesamt auszahlt. Vorgestellt werden aktuelle Daten, Politiktrends sowie detaillierte Analysen der ausschlaggebenden Faktoren für die Aufteilung von bezahlter und unbezahlter Arbeit, einschließlich der Frage, wie mehr Partnerschaftlichkeit in Familie und Beruf zu höheren Geburtenraten führen kann. Außerdem werden Politikmaßnahmen zur Förderung der Partnerschaftlichkeit untersucht, wobei sich der Blick sowohl auf nach wie vor bestehende Unzulänglichkeiten als auch auf die Fortschritte richtet, die mit den seit Mitte der 2000er Jahre eingeleiteten Reformen erzielt wurden. Der Bericht enthält eine Reihe von Politikempfehlungen, deren Ziel es ist, Eltern eine ausgewogenere Aufteilung beruflicher und familiärer Pflichten zu ermöglichen.
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (34 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 13
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.13
    Keywords: Strukturpolitik ; Einkommensverteilung ; Vergleich ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of structural policies on household disposable incomes at different income levels. More specifically, it investigates the extent to which structural policies have differential long-run impacts on GDP per capita and on household incomes at different points of the distribution. One aim is to verify whether policy decisions may face tradeoffs between objectives of economic efficiency and equity. Many growth enhancing structural reforms are found to deliver stronger income gains for households at the lower end of the distribution compared with the average household, an indication that they may reduce inequality in disposable incomes. Such is the case of reducing regulatory barriers to domestic competition as well as to trade and FDI; stepping-up job-search support and activation programmes. Conversely, other reforms involve trade-offs between the efficiency and equity objective. This is the case of the tightening of unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, which is found to lift GDP per capita and average household incomes, but also to reduce disposable incomes at the lower end of the distribution.
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/05
    Keywords: Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Verfügbares Einkommen ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Sterblichkeit ; Opportunitätskosten ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper builds a welfare measure encompassing household disposable income, unemployment and longevity, while using two different sets of “shadow prices” for non-income variables. The valuations of vital and unemployment risks estimated from life satisfaction data (“subjective shadow prices”) and those derived from model-based approaches and calibrated utility functions (“model-based shadow prices”) are shown to be broadly consistent once a number of conditions are fulfilled. Subjective shadow prices appear to be inflated by the downward bias on the income variable in life satisfaction regressions conducted at the individual level, while the latter bias is largely removed when running regressions at the country level. On the other hand, model-based shadow prices are typically underestimated as: i) the valuation of the unemployment risk is assumed to take place under the veil of ignorance (i.e. for a representative agent that has no information on her current or future unemployment situation); ii) the standard model relies on a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility function, which has no specific relative risk aversion parameter for unemployment and vital risks; iii) the Value of Statistical Life that is used in standard calibration pertains to the adult lifespan while life expectancy at birth covers the entire lifetime.
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/06
    Keywords: 1995 - 2012 ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Soziale Integration ; OECD-Staaten ; China ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents the Measurement Framework of the OECD Inclusive Growth Initiative, a horizontal project that the OECD launched in 2012 to develop a new vision of economic growth that can translate in higher living standards for all. This measurement framework builds on the equivalent income approach to develop an indicator of Multidimensional Living Standards (MDLS) that combines monetary (income) and non-monetary (health and jobs) benefits from economic growth and aggregates them across individuals with different characteristics. The paper discusses estimates of MDLS for 29 OECD countries and China in the period 1995-2012. It finds that between 1995 and 2007 living standards of the median household have increased in all countries under study and have gone up the most in countries where they were initially lower. The convergence in living standards has been driven by convergence in all underlying dimensions, namely income, unemployment and to a lesser extent, longevity. Between 2007 and 2012 living standards of median households hardly grew and several countries witnessed receding living standards. The bulk of the loss is explained by rising unemployment, while median household income growth has remained broadly stable.
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (48 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/07
    Keywords: Sozialer Indikator ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Better Life Index was introduced by the OECD as a tool to chart the multi-dimensional well-being of OECD member countries, Brazil and the Russian Federation. However, the Better Life Index relies only on aggregate country-level indicators, and hence is insensitive to how multi-dimensional well-being outcomes are distributed within countries. This paper discusses how a distribution-sensitive Better Life Index could be designed and implemented. Based on five concrete recommendations for the design of the index, a family of indices is suggested. These indices are shown to be decomposable in interpretable building blocks. While a rich and comprehensive micro-level data set is necessary to implement the distribution-sensitive Better Life Index, no such data set is currently available for all OECD member countries. The paper proposes a ‘synthetic’ data set that relies on information about macro-level indicators and micro-level data from the Gallup World Poll. The implementation of the distribution-sensitive Better Life Index is illustrated with this synthetic data set. While the small sample size and other survey features of the Gallup World Poll imply a number of potential biases, illustrative calculations based on this synthetic data set indicates that, when taking distribution into account, Nordic countries are top-ranked whereas Greece, the Russian Federation and Turkey occupy the bottom positions. The results indicate sizeable losses due to multi-dimensional inequality for OECD member countries. Moreover, there are large differences in the level and composition of multi-dimensional inequality.
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 14
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.14
    Keywords: Lohnstruktur ; Einkommensverteilung ; Kapitalbeteiligung ; Gini-Koeffizient ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Bankinsolvenz ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Aktienmarkt ; G20-Staaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Finance is a vital ingredient for economic growth, but there can also be too much of it. This study investigates what fifty years of data for OECD countries have to say about the role of the financial sector for economic growth and income inequality and draws policy implications. Over the past fifty years, credit by banks and other intermediaries to households and businesses has grown three times as fast as economic activity. In most OECD countries, further expansion is likely to slow rather than boost growth. The composition of finance matters for growth. More credit to the private sector slows growth in most OECD countries, but more stock market financing boosts growth. Credit is a stronger drag on growth when it goes to households rather than businesses. Financial expansion fuels greater income inequality because higher income people can benefit more from the greater availability of credit and because the sector pays high wages. Higher income people can and do borrow more, so that they can gain more than others from the investment opportunities that they identify. The financial sector pays wages which are above what employees with similar profiles earn in the rest of the economy. This premium is particularly large for top income earners. There is no trade-off between financial reform, growth and income equality in the long term. In the short term, measures to avoid accumulating too much credit can, however, restrain growth temporarily. A healthy contribution of the financial sector to inclusive growth requires strong capital buffers, measures to reduce explicit and implicit subsidies to toobig- to-fail financial institutions and tax reforms to promote neutrality between debt and equity financing
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/08
    Keywords: Bildungsniveau ; Sterblichkeit ; Bevölkerungsstatistik ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: All OECD countries are faced with substantial inequalities in health status between socioeconomic groups within their populations. One aspect of these inequalities for which data are routinely available in many countries is inequalities in mortality by level of education: people with a lower level of education typically have considerably higher death rates and lower life expectancy than people with a higher level of education. The OECD recently started a project to generate measures of the distributions of ages at death by educational level, gender and cause of death for as many countries as possible. This working paper aims to highlight the most important methodological issues to be faced when trying to create valid statistics on mortality by level of education, and to highlight how different methodologies may affect results and comparisons. Topics covered include study designs (e.g. use of cross-sectional census-unlinked versus longitudinal census-linked data), data harmonization issues (e.g. use of a common educational classification scheme), and data analysis issues (e.g. choice of a summary measure of inequalities in mortality). The paper ends with a number of recommendations for data analysts.
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 12
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.12
    Keywords: Stabilisierungspolitik ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Mikrodaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Economic policies shape how much people earn but also how stable their income and jobs are. The level of earnings and the degree of economic stability both matter for well-being. Micro-level data indicate that, across OECD countries, economic instability is much greater at the level of individuals than at the aggregate level. The present study investigates the effects on micro-level stability of policies that boost growth. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests possible trade-offs between growth and micro-level stability. The analysis indeed finds policy changes that boost growth but increase micro-level instability: reducing the progressivity or size of social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moving from very to moderately tight restrictions on the competition for goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.
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  • 12
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (50 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/01
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Sicherheit ; Messung ; OECD-Staaten ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: People feel economically insecure when they perceive a significant hazard or danger looming in the future, which they are unable to insure against, avoid or ignore. While all OECD countries devote significant resources to mitigate economic insecurity, no consensus exists on the best way to measure it. The paper reviews the pros and cons of the main approaches proposed by the literature and identifies a number of criteria than an ideal measure of economic insecurity should satisfy. It advocates the construction of household level sub-indices for the hazards identified in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (i.e. unemployment, illness, widowhood, disability and old age) and their aggregation to an over-all summary measure of economic insecurity, discussing what could be done with existing data and what additional information should be collected.
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (56 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 15
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.15
    Keywords: Öffentliche Schulden ; Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about debt indicators and the prudent government debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach the prudent debt level and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the convergence path towards a prudent debt target. The objective of this paper is to define long-run prudent debt targets for OECD countries and country-specific fiscal rules. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of government liabilities and assets and formulates recommendations for debt indicators. It also reviews the different linkages between government debt and the economic activity. The lessons from these analyses are combined with an assessment of the uncertainties surrounding the development of macroeconomic variables to define a prudent debt target. Different fiscal rules are compared with regard their impact on fiscal discipline and the risk of recession for country-specific fiscal rules recommendations.
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/03
    Keywords: profit share ; quasi-corporations ; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung ; Privatwirtschaft ; Selbstständige ; Rentabilität ; Vergleich ; Frankreich ; Deutschland ; Italien ; USA ; Economics ; France ; Germany ; Italy ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This article gives methodological guidance on how best to compare the share of profits in value-added across countries using national accounts. Such comparisons are often based on accounts for institutional sectors such as non-financial corporations. It turns out that these are less internationally comparable than is usually assumed. The main issue is the allocation of certain types of self-employed workers to the corporations’ sector of some countries, most notably Germany and Italy. The consequence is that the measured gross operating surplus of corporations is overstated and has to be adjusted for international comparisons. If this is not feasible, it is preferable to rely on industry accounts, focus on a subset of industries and impute a labour compensation to self-employed workers for international comparisons. Profit shares in France, Germany, Italy and the United States are then much more similar than what the accounts for non-financial corporations suggest. The claim of a global increase in the profit share in the last decades is at best debatable for Germany and not backed with the evidence presented in this paper for France and Italy. It is only for the United States that we can confirm such an increase.
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (116 S.) , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2015/04
    Keywords: Zufriedenheit ; Sozialer Indikator ; Vergleich ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The issue of cultural bias in subjective well-being data is often raised, but rarely well-documented. This paper reviews the main barriers to interpreting national differences in subjective well-being, noting the challenge of distinguishing between cultural bias (understood as measurement error) and cultural impact (where culture plays a more substantive role in shaping how people experience their lives). Several methods are then used to attempt to quantify the role of culture in subjective well-being, drawing on multiple waves of the Gallup World Poll, conducted in over 150 countries and territories. Regression analysis is used to identify country-specific fixed effects, which capture unexplained variance in subjective well-being at the country level, over and above a basic set of socio-economic and demographic controls. These country fixed effects then become the subject of three further investigations. The first examines whether survey measures of “cultural values” are able to explain the size and direction of country fixed effects; the second considers the evidence for international differences in “appraisal styles” (e.g. a more positive or negative outlook on life in general); and the third explores the “cultural transmission” of subjective well-being, focusing on the experiences of migrants to separate the effects of culture from those of broader life circumstances. The paper shows that, although life circumstances explain well the overall pattern of cross-country variation in subjective well-being, a gap is observed for some countries. Culture may account for some 20% of the country-specific unexplained variance. This combined effect of “cultural impact” and “cultural bias” is small when compared to the role of objective life circumstances in explaining subjective well-being outcomes.
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 8
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Konjunktur ; Volatilität ; Schock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies play in shaping the vulnerability and resilience of an economy to macroeconomic shocks. Against this background, this paper looks at a vast array of policy recommendations by the OECD that promote longterm growth – contained in Going for Growth and the Economic Outlook – and attempts to establish whether they underpin macroeconomic stability or whether there is a trade-off.
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (44 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 10
    Keywords: Vorleistungen ; Zoll ; Handelsliberalisierung ; Internationale Arbeitsteilung ; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung ; International ; Economics ; Trade ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This report presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to 2060, taking into account international spillovers. The report highlights that comparative advantage in terms of factor endowments matters for trade specialisation, although framework and trade policies also play a role. For instance, tariffs on intermediate inputs are found to adversely affect trade with this adverse effect found to have increased over time, likely reflecting expanding global supply chains magnifying the impact of tariffs. The forward-looking analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions, reflecting faster growth in these countries. Multilateral global trade liberalisation could raise world trade by 15% by 2060 relative to the status quo, whereas regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries only would raise world trade by 4% due to trade diversion.
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (92 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD social, employment and migration working papers 159
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Einkommensteuer ; OECD-Staaten ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The shares of top income recipients in total pre-tax income have increased in OECD countries in the past three decades, particularly in most of the English-speaking countries but also in some Nordic (from low levels) and Southern European countries. Today, the richest one percent receives between 7% of all pre-tax income in Denmark and the Netherlands up to almost 20% in the United States. This increase is the result of the top 1% capturing a disproportionate share of overall income growth over the past thirty years: around 20 – 25% in Australia and the United Kingdom, up to 37% in Canada and even 47% in the United States. At the same time, tax reforms in almost all OECD countries reduced top personal income tax rates as well as rates of other taxes affecting the highest income earners. Indeed, while top tax rates were equal to or above 70% in half of the countries in the mid-1970s, this rate has been halved in many countries by 2013.
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (50 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2014/01
    Keywords: 1984 - 2032 ; Einkommensverteilung ; Gleichgewichtstheorie ; Vergleich ; USA ; Kanada ; Australien ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Historically, discussions of income inequality have emphasised cross-sectional comparisons of levels of inequality of income. These comparisons have been used to argue that countries with more inequality are less healthy, less democratic, more crime-infested, less happy, less mobile and less equal in economic opportunity, but such comparisons implicitly presume that current levels of inequality are steady state outcomes. However, the income distribution can only remain stable if the growth rate of income is equal at all percentiles of the distribution. This paper compares long-run levels of real income growth at the very top, and for the bottom 90% and bottom 99% in the United States, Canada and Australia to illustrate the uniqueness of the post-WWII period of balanced growth (and consequent stability in the income distribution). The ‘new normal’ of the United States, Canada and Australia is ‘unbalanced’ growth – specifically, over the last thirty years the incomes of the top 1% have grown significantly more rapidly than those of everyone else. The paper asks if auto-equilibrating market mechanisms will spontaneously equalise income growth rates and stabilise inequality. It concludes that the more likely scenario is continued unbalanced income growth. This, in turn, implies, on the economic side, consumption and savings flows which accumulate to changed stocks of indebtedness, financial fragility, and periodic macroeconomic crises; and, on the social side, to increasing inequality of opportunity and political influence. Greater economic and socio-political instabilities are therefore the most likely consequence of increasing income inequality over time.
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  • 20
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (67 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 9
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; Umweltbelastung ; Einwanderung ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Einkommensverteilung ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Koordination ; Bildungschancen ; Hochschule ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Welt ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.
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  • 21
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (59 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Working paper / OECD Development Centre 325
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.325
    Keywords: Entwicklung ; Gesundheit ; Zufriedenheit ; Entwicklungsländer ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Development ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A wide range of voices around the world have stressed the need to understand development as a multidimensional phenomenon that involves and affects many aspects of people’s lives. Increasingly, it is recognised that current well-being and its long-term sustainability are the ultimate goals of development and that these notions better capture the human experience of development. The objectives of this paper are to explain why well-being matters in countries at different levels of development and to address measurement challenges in the context of developing countries. These objectives are pursued in four main steps. First, the paper offers a conception of well-being and illustrates its relevance in different development contexts. Second, it describes briefly how the measurement of well-being is implemented under the OECD Better Life Initiative for OECD countries. Third, it proposes ways in which the OECD framework can be adapted to specific development contexts and thereby made more universal, by suggesting relevant well-being dimensions and indicators that could be used to measure well-being in developing countries. Finally, it discusses the possible implications of the adapted framework for OECD work in developing countries, in particular its possible use in the Multi-Dimensional Country Reviews conducted by the OECD Development Centre for a range of non OECD countries.
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  • 22
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 11
    Keywords: Gesundheitsversorgung ; Arbeitslosenversicherung ; Soziale Sicherheit ; Altersvorsorge ; Indonesien ; BRICS-Staaten ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Social institutions face many challenges. The recent economic crisis has provided a stress test as it has left a legacy of high unemployment and high government debt in many countries. It also lowered potential output and thus the revenue base for social protection schemes. At the same time, ageing and other secular trends raise long-term sustainability issues. The design of social institutions determines their capacity to deal with shocks and trend changes and the way risks are shared between the institutions and their stakeholders. They also circumscribe the scope for automatic or discretionary adjustments, when trade-offs between sustainability, adequacy and efficiency arise. This report examines the sustainability of social institutions and their ability to absorb and cope with short-term shocks and longer-term trends by providing risk sharing and expenditure smoothing, focusing on pension, health care and unemployment insurance schemes.
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2014/03
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Armut ; Messung ; Regionalwissenschaft ; OECD-Staaten ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Urban, Rural and Regional Development ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The extent to which income inequality and poverty vary within countries across different regions is very relevant for policy decisions and monitoring. However, sub-national measures are scarce, given the complexity of producing indicators at the regional level from the available data and the methodological issues related to cross-countries comparability. This paper presents a set of indicators of income inequality and poverty across and within regions for 28 OECD countries. These indicators were produced through a new household-level data collection based on internationally harmonized income definitions undertaken as part of the OECD project on “Measuring regional and local well-being for policymaking”. The data were collected at the OECD TL2 territorial level, corresponding to NUTS2 regions in Europe and to large administrative subdivisions (e.g. States in Mexico and Unites States) for non-European countries. These estimates confirm that there are significant variations in levels of income inequality within countries, and that regional breakdowns are useful for understanding sources and patterns of income disparities and poverty. For most of the countries relying on survey data for measuring income distribution, standard cross-sectional indicators of income inequality and relative poverty at this regional level are estimated with low precision in the smallest regions due to small samples. This has two main implications for data producers and analysts. First, systematic reporting of confidence intervals is needed to make meaningful comparisons of inequality levels across regions and with respect to the national averages. Second, averaged measures for multiple years or small area estimation methods should be considered as means for obtaining more robust measures. The issues related to the estimation of standard errors for three-year averages in rotational panel surveys and to the definition of the computational sampling structure for sub-national estimates are discussed in the paper.
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  • 24
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1015
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; USA ; Employment ; Economics ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Although job creation has improved, since the end of the 2007-08 recession, the effects of the recession on the labour market remain severe. Unemployment duration is still extremely high, and many have withdrawn from the labour market altogether. Because the weakness is largely cyclical in nature, policy makers should place a high priority on supporting aggregate demand in the short term. Even so, policies are needed to help individuals return to work, as there is a risk that high long-term unemployment and weak labour market participation could evolve into structural problems. Greater emphasis should be put on activation measures that help individuals search for jobs more effectively or find adequate training programmes. In the longer run, education and training are key to raising the skills and wages of the workforce. In this regard, educational reforms are needed to increase student achievement at all levels. High-quality vocational training can also be used to advance the skills of high-school graduates. College completion rates could be improved by reducing financial and other barriers to education, and enhancing the community college system would be a cost-effective way to provide more individuals with an affordable way to obtain tertiary education. Disability insurance reforms are needed to reduce dependency on these programmes and encourage participation in the workforce. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of the United States (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/United States).
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (24 S.)
    Series Statement: OECD regional development working papers 2013/09
    Keywords: Spieltheorie ; Kooperation ; Anreiz ; Theorie ; Urban, Rural and Regional Development ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: There are many situations where the best outcome is reached through co-operation and co-ordination of agents’ actions. Although this is the best collective outcome, economic agents may fail to implement such co-operative strategy. The reason for this failure may be lack of information about the gains from co-operation, or lack of capacity to implement the co-operative strategy. The present work focuses on two obstacles to co-operation that are linked with the incentives of the economic agents, and that are present even when the problems of information and capacity are taken care off. The two obstacles are the incentive to free ride and the strategic risk. The former stems from the possibility of obtaining gains without paying the associated costs (which are incurred by the agents that decide to co-operate); the latter is the risk of being the only one (or among the few) that acts co-operatively, so that the agent pays the costs but obtains less than what it would be feasible had other agents decided to co-operate. In this setting, using a game theoretical approach, we distinguish several cases of co-operation failures according to the relevance of those two obstacles. The analysis is then applied to contractual design and financial incentives. The overall message is the importance of identifying the source of co-operation failure in order to devise an effective policy to induce co-operation. It may not be enough to tell people (and institutions) that they should co-operate because it is in their interest, it is necessary to identify the incentives that shape agents’ decisions and are responsible for co-operation failures.
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2012/05
    Keywords: Frühindikator ; G7-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: We estimate the business-cycles of G7 countries, as defined by an ideal 2-10 year bandpass filter applied to country-specific GDP target series (GDP-BP). Since this target series cannot be observed in real-time, due to the symmetry of the bandpass filter, we analyze and compare the leading performances of the well-known HP-filter, as currently implemented in the OECD CLI’s, as well as of the Multivariate Direct Filter Approach (MDFA) relying on explanatory time series, as selected for current CLIs. The paper shows that efficiency gains by MDFA over HP are substantial along the full revision-sequence and they are consistent across countries as well as over time, when referenced against GDP-BP.
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  • 27
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels 1
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1070
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Finanzbeziehungen ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of fiscal consolidation efforts at the central and sub-central government level, both during the current and past consolidation episodes. After experiencing a deficit and debt hike during the crisis, sub-central debt is mostly stabilising. So far, sub-central consolidation has been mainly achieved through spending cuts, while overall revenues remained largely stable. Sub-central tax revenues rose a bit, but intergovernmental transfers went down slightly. Sub-central governments in a few countries need to consolidate further, if they want to reach debt levels of 2007 or 2011 by the year 2026, as shown by fiscal gap calculations. During past consolidation episodes, sub-central consolidation increased the probability of debt stabilisation at the general government level. Reductions in intergovernmental grants improved the success rate. Central and sub-central deficits tended to move in parallel, although some subcentral governments experienced a “second trough” three or four years after consolidation had started. The paper suggests a number of instruments that could help sub-central governments consolidate their budgets, and argues in favour of amendments to sub-central fiscal rules.
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels 3
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1072
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels
    Keywords: Finanzausgleich ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Antizyklische Finanzpolitik ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical analysis that measures the cyclical properties of intergovernmental transfers (or grants). Modelling a fiscal policy reaction function this paper tests whether the transfers systems in OECD countries are pro- or counter-cyclical, i.e. whether they offset cyclical fluctuations of sub-central economies or, on the contrary, exacerbate them. Regression results suggest that transfer systems tend to be pro-cyclical in general and in more than half of OECD countries they tend to destabilise sub-central budgets. Transfer pro-cyclicality may be the result of several factors: Transfer spending is often determined as a share of central government tax revenue, which itself tends to fluctuate with the cycle. Moreover, many grants are matching sub-central spending and hence tend to exacerbate fluctuations of that sub-central spending. Pro-cyclical grants could partly explain the often observed pro-cyclicality of subcentral government fiscal policy.
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  • 29
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (55 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 4
    Keywords: Immaterielle Werte ; Investitionsentscheidung ; Innovation ; Allokation ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Science and Technology ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Investment in knowledge-based capital (KBC) – assets that have no physical embodiment, such as computerised information, innovative property and economic competencies – has been rising significantly. This has implications for innovation and productivity growth and requires new thinking on policy. The returns to investing in KBC differ significantly across countries and are partly shaped by structural policies, which influence the ability of national economies to reallocate scarce resources to firms that invest in KBC. In this regard, well-functioning product, labour and venture capital markets and bankruptcy laws that do not overly penalise failure can raise the expected returns to investing in KBC by improving the efficiency of resource allocation. While structural reforms offer the most cost-effective approach to raising investment in KBC, there is a role for innovation policies to raise private investment in KBC towards socially optimal levels. Indeed, R&D tax incentives and, as a finding that contrasts with previous research, direct support measures can be effective, but design features are crucial in order to minimise the fiscal cost and unintended consequences of such policies. Well-defined intellectual property rights (IPR) are also important to provide firms with the incentive to innovate and to promote knowledge diffusion via the public disclosure of ideas. However, such IPR regimes need to be coupled with pro-competition policies to ensure maximum effect while the rising costs of the patent system in emerging KBC sectors may have altered the trade-off inherent to IPR between the incentives to innovate and the broad diffusion of knowledge.
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  • 30
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (39 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 6
    Keywords: Alternde Bevölkerung ; Sterblichkeit ; Gesundheitskosten ; Häusliche Pflege ; Demographie ; Prognoseverfahren ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections till 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A costcontainment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively.
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  • 31
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (70 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/06
    Keywords: Sozialkapital ; Messung ; Definition ; Theorie ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper looks beyond the broad notion of social capital – which has been applied to a number of different phenomena –in order to clarify (i) the range of different elements that are encompassed by the term; and (ii) what needs to be done to further statistical research and development in order to lay the groundwork for establishing guidelines for better comparative measures in the future. The paper starts by describing the origins of the concept of social capital and the evolution of different approaches in the literature on this subject: it argues that there is not one single interpretation of social capital but rather several different approaches, which need to be more clearly distinguished in order for research and measurement to advance. The paper identifies four main ways in which the concept of “social capital” has been conceptualised and measured -- i) personal relationships; ii) social network support; iii) civic engagement; and iv) trust and cooperative norms -- reflecting different views of what social capital ‘is’ and implying different research agendas. The paper then looks at each of these four area in turn, assessing their meaning, functionings, and areas of policy relevance. Finally, the paper looks at measurement issues, providing examples of the measures on each of the four areas from national and international surveys. Recommendations for further statistical work in the field of social capital measurement are supported by a database of the survey questions used in around 50 surveys worldwide, available at www.oecd.org/std/social-capital-project-and-question-databank.htm.
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  • 32
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (78 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/03
    Keywords: Privater Konsum ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Sparen ; Vergleich ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Much valuable information exists already on household economic resources (i.e. income, consumption and wealth). Indeed, the national accounts provide aggregate measures and micro sources (surveys, administrative records, and censuses) can be used to derive measures of the distribution across household groups. Over the years, however, macro and micro statisticians have tended to work separately leading to sometimes divergent results which can cause problem to users. In 2011, the OECD and Eurostat launched a joint Expert Group to carry out a study on the feasibility of compiling measures of the distribution of income, consumption and wealth across household groups that are consistent with national accounts definitions and totals. The first challenge of the Expert Group was to draw a detailed picture of the extent to which statistical information derived from micro sources can be aligned to three national accounts aggregates; 20 countries studied all (or part) of the components of adjusted disposable income, 21 all (or part) of the components of actual final consumption and 7 studied all (or part) of the components of household net worth. Results show that there are a number of identified reasons that can explain differences between micro and macro sources. Some of them were quantified and isolated showing finally that for most countries micro sources provide distributive information for most of the national accounts components but for some of them with quite significant gaps in total amounts. Overall, micro and macro totals are closer to each other for income components than for consumption and wealth components. The results also show that there is greater heterogeneity in results across countries for consumption components.
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  • 33
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (75 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/04
    Keywords: 2011 ; Privater Konsum ; Haushaltsstatistik ; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Sparen ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Valuable information exists already on household economic resources. The national accounts provide aggregate measures and micro sources (surveys, administrative records, and censuses) can be used to derive measures of the distribution across households groups. Over the years, however, macro and micro statisticians have tended to work separately leading to sometimes divergent results which can cause problem to users. In 2011, the OECD and Eurostat launched a joint Expert Group to carry out a study on the feasibility of compiling measures of the distribution of income, consumption and wealth across household groups that are consistent with national accounts definitions and totals. As part of the Expert Group, national experts from 16 countries performed experimental calculations using all the detailed micro and macro information available at the national level and following the same framework and methodology. The experimental results obtained are presented in this paper. They show disparities in household income and consumption, including Social Transfers in Kind, and in household saving for different groups of households: by income quintile; by main source of income; and by household type. The main methodological issues related to this exercise are described. The paper also illustrates the number of assumptions that are required to produce estimates on distribution across households consistent with national accounts definitions and totals.
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1010
    Keywords: Gesundheitsreform ; Krankenversicherung ; Pflegereform ; Niederlande ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Netherlands, as other OECD countries, faces the challenge of providing high quality health and long-term care services to an ageing population in a cost-efficient manner. In the health care sector, reforms have aimed at introducing more competition. Despite major changes and some positive effects, the reforms run the risk of getting stuck in the middle between a centralised system of state-controlled supply and prices and a decentralised system based on regulated competition, providing insufficient incentives for provision of quality services and expenditure control. The main challenges are to complete the transition to regulated competition in health care provision, to strengthen the role of health insurers as purchasing agents and to secure cost containment in an increasingly demand-driven health care sector. In 2012, reforms expanded the role of the market in the hospital sector and reinforced budget controls. Both measures are not consistent and may jeopardize both objectives. More competitive markets require, at least, provision of good quality information, appropriate financing and better efficiency incentives. In view of population ageing, current policies mean that the cost of long-term care is set to more than double over the coming decades. Insufficient incentives for cost-efficient purchasing of long-term care should be addressed. However, the government?s plan to transfer long-term care purchasing to health insurers is unpromising unless additional measures ensure that insurers bear the associated financial risks. In addition, home care should be further encouraged at the expense of institutional care, while screening and targeting should be improved. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of the Netherlands (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Netherlands.
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1012
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Niederlande ; Employment ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The well performing labour market has delivered low unemployment and relatively stable wage developments. However, it is divided into a small flexible segment and a large more rigid segment, where the adjustment burden of external shocks falls disproportionally on the first group. At the same time, labour utilisation is relatively low, despite a relatively high overall participation rate, due to a high frequency of part-time employment, a low effective retirement age and a high use of disability benefits. Looking ahead, it is unlikely that the organisation of the labour market will allow the economy to continue reaping fully the benefits of globalisation. That would require a labour market that facilitates the allocation of increasingly scarce labour resources to their best use and mobilises underutilised labour resources to counter the ageing related contraction of the labour force.). This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of the Netherlands (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/netherlands
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1016
    Keywords: Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Verkehrspolitik ; Straßenverkehr ; OECD-Staaten ; Transport ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite the economic importance of the road transport sector, there is no systematic cross-country evidence on the sector’s efficiency. This paper develops a conceptual framework for analysing the social efficiency of the road transport sector, including non-market inputs – such as travel time – and negative outputs – such as accidents and emissions. This framework is then used to analyse efficiency in 32 OECD countries. Data issues in terms of availability, quality and comparability are significant, and the empirical results have to be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, there is fairly robust evidence that social efficiency is low in a number of OECD countries. The low efficiency suggests that substantial room for input savings exists in these countries. A framework for analysing how road transport policies may impact performance is developed, but a scarcity of data on policy settings currently limits the scope for empirically connecting the two.
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Income inequality and poverty in Colombia 2
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1037
    Series Statement: Income inequality and poverty in Colombia
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Armut ; Umverteilung ; Kolumbien ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Taxation ; Economics ; Colombia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Income inequality in Colombia has declined since the early 2000s but remains very high by international standards. While most of the inequality originates from the labour market, wealth – and thus capital income – is also highly concentrated and the tax and transfer system has little redistributive impact. The tax-to-GDP ratio remains low. Consumption taxes, which tend to be regressive, account for the bulk. The progressivity of income taxes had been undermined by generous tax reliefs, which benefit the well-off most and increase tax avoidance opportunities. The tax system should be reformed to enhance progressivity and raise more revenue which could be used to expand social policies. Cash transfers to households are small and dominated by non-redistributive schemes such as contributory pensions. Education coverage has increased steadily but quality and equity in access at the tertiary level remain important issues. Though significant progress has been made towards universal health coverage, the financing and organisation of the health care system could be improved to raise the quality of care and reduce adverse incentives to remain in the informal sector.
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 7
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Einkommensverteilung ; Strukturpolitik ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial public finance consolidation needs moving forward, owing to the legacy of debt accumulation before the crisis, and to the role played by fiscal policy in rescuing the banking system and supporting aggregate demand in the aftermath of the recession. Further budget consolidation is also needed over a much longer horizon to face long-term public spending pressures, in particular from pensions and health care. Fiscal consolidation complicates the task of achieving other policy goals. In most cases, it weighs on demand in the short term. And, if too little attention is paid to the mix of instruments used to achieve consolidation, it can slow the process of global rebalancing, undermine long-term growth and exacerbate income inequality. It is therefore important for governments to adopt consolidation strategies that minimise these adverse side-effects. The analysis assesses the near and long-term consolidation needs for OECD countries and proposes consolidation strategies that take into account other policy goals as well as country-specific circumstances and preferences. To do so, increases in particular taxes and cuts in specific spending areas are assessed for their effects on short- and longterm growth, income distribution and external accounts. The results of detailed simulations indicate that a significant number of OECD countries may have to raise harmful taxes or cut valuable spending areas to deliver sufficient consolidation, underscoring the need for structural reforms to counteract these side-effects.
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1009
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Arbeitsmarktsegmentation ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Belgien ; Employment ; Economics ; Belgium ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The global crisis led to a smaller increase in the unemployment rate than in most other OECD countries as employment has been sustained through intensive use of reduced working time schemes. These schemes have mostly benefited workers with permanent contracts while the higher unemployment mostly affected workers with weaker labour market attachment. A main challenge for policy makers is therefore to avoid that the increase in labour market segmentation between insiders and outsiders that would hurt the most vulnerable. Over the medium term, labour market policies need to respond to the ageing of the labour force, which implies that an increasing number of workers with permanent contracts will retire. Thus, policies must focus on enabling the current labour market outsiders to get a stronger foothold on the labour market as well as to mobilize under-utilised labour resources. The wage determination system has allowed wages to increase faster than the main competitors and faster than productivity, leading to a gradual loss of cost competitiveness. Minimum wages are high by international standards, hampering entry to the labour market for many low-skilled workers. Unemployment benefits are relatively generous, and particularly for long-term unemployed. A complicated tax-benefit system has created high effective marginal tax rates and numerous labour market traps. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Survey of Belgium (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Belgium).
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1014
    Keywords: Arbeitsmobilität ; Arbeitsvertrag ; Befristete Beschäftigung ; Leiharbeit ; Russland ; Employment ; Economics ; Russian Federation ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This study looks into the use of fixed term contracts and agency work in Russia during and shortly after the crisis 2009-10 with the help of an enterprise survey. The results of variance analysis show that the use of fixed-term or agency work contracts is not uniform across sectors, size and skill requirements. Probit analysis reveals that the use of fixed term contracts also in-creases the likelihood of using agency work, but not the other way around. The increase of tem-porary and agency work contracts increases the turnover on the labour market and contributes to an increase in dualisation, but may also help to prevent a larger increase in unemployment during crisis periods.
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  • 41
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (27 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/02
    Keywords: Humankapital ; Immaterielle Werte ; Vermögen ; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Since income is the return on wealth, the total wealth of any given country should be on the order of 20 times its GDP. Instead the average observed ratio from the balance sheet accounts of the System of National Accounts (SNA) is a factor of 2.6 to 6.6, depending on whether natural resource stocks are included in the balance sheet. The clear implication is that the SNA wealth accounts are incomplete, with the most obvious omission being human capital. Estimating the value of human capital using the lifetime income approach for a sample of thirteen (mostly high-income) countries yields a mean share of human capital in total wealth of 62% – four times the value of produced capital and 15 times the value of natural capital. But for selected high income countries in the sample there is still an average of 25% of total wealth which is unaccounted – it is neither produced, nor natural, nor human capital. This residual intangible wealth is arguably the ’stock equivalent’ of total factor productivity – the value of assets such as institutional quality and social capital which augment the capacity of produced, natural and human capital to support a stream of consumption into the future.
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Income inequality and poverty in Colombia 1
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1036
    Series Statement: Income inequality and poverty in Colombia
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Armut ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Kolumbien ; Employment ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Colombia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Income inequality in Colombia has declined since the early 2000s but remains very high by international standards. Income dispersion largely originates from the labour market, which is characterised by a still high unemployment rate, a pervasive informal sector and a wide wage dispersion reflecting a large education premium for those with higher education. Reducing income inequality is a key government objective and this requires improving the performance of the labour market. Raising educational outcomes for all and enhancing training programmes would help improve labour supply and productivity. Formal job creation however remains heavily constrained by restrictive labour market regulations, in particular very substantial non-wage labour costs and a minimum wage which is high compared to average incomes. The 2012 tax reform reduces non-wage labour costs but more decisive steps are needed to create the right conditions and incentives to boost formal employment.
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (38 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 5
    Keywords: Gerichtsbarkeit ; Performance-Messung ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Well functioning judiciaries are key to economic development. Combining existing information with a newly collected dataset, the paper provides cross-country comparisons of measures of judicial performance, and investigates how cross-country differences in trial length are related to the underlying characteristics of judicial systems. There is a large cross-country variation in trial length across all instances, which appears to be related to the share of the justice budget devoted to computerisation, the systematic production of statistics the active management of the progress of cases, the presence of specialised commercial courts and the managerial responsibilities assigned to the chief judge. Good quality regulation, is associated with lower litigation, which in turn can shorten trial length. Free negotiation of lawyers’ fees also appears to be associated with lower litigation.
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1000
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; OECD-Staaten ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1011
    Keywords: Globalisierung ; Niederländer ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Netherlands ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Netherlands has strongly benefited from globalisation, which boosted international trade, cross-border investment and economic growth over the latest decades. Looking ahead, the Netherlands needs to shift the trade and investment orientation from traditional slow-growing markets to faster growing emerging economies, in order to keep reaping the benefits from globalisation. In addition, the ongoing globalisation will push companies to become more innovative and search for new activities. Against this backdrop, the government is reforming its policies for the business sector. This includes a targeted approach, where the government is attempting to strengthen key sectors to become even stronger players on the international scene. This approach, however, carries some of the risks of more traditional industrial policy, making careful policy design and evaluation important elements for successful implementation. The other building block of the new policies is a strengthening of framework conditions, which promises a more market-based development of comparative advantages, and which could be further strengthened by broadening the approach to include other policies, such as competition policies. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of the Netherlands (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/netherlands).
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  • 46
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1013
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Umverteilung ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Trade ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In several OECD countries, ongoing fiscal consolidation might have a negative impact on the static income distribution. However, this conclusion should be treated only as an approximate first step in the analysis. A full assessment of distributional effects of consolidation packages would need to consider dynamic measures, such as life-time income distribution and the equality of opportunity, along with behavioural responses and interactions with other policies. In any case, there is scope to balance current consolidation efforts in favour of more equity with only limited adverse impact on potential growth. In particular, relatively little weight has been given to reducing tax expenditures and raising taxes on immovable property. A number of consolidation instruments are consistent with equity goals while doing little or no harm to potential growth: increases in the effective retirement age, raising efficiency in the education and health care systems, cutting certain tax expenditures, hiking taxes on immovable property and broadly-based consumption taxes. Increases in capital income taxes would also be equitable but need to be well designed to avoid being distortive. Calculations based on simplifying assumptions indicate that increasing household direct taxes would reduce income inequality, while cutting transfers by the same amount would have a larger and opposite effect on inequality. However, raising progressive labour income taxes could have adverse effects on long-run growth. Cuts in government wages and employment can yield fast consolidation gains but need to be accompanied by increases in efficiency of service delivery to avoid that reductions in public services mainly hit the poor. Cuts in unemployment-related and disability benefits will likely hit poorer people in the first place but may have less adverse effects on inequality in the long run once employment increases in response to a better incentive structure.
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (23 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/01
    Keywords: Umweltbewertung ; Zufriedenheit ; Europa ; Environment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While environmental economics studies using stated life satisfaction data have been gaining attention, much of this body of work remains exploratory. In this study we contribute to this emerging body of research by combining OECD survey data from four European countries on life satisfaction and perceptions of environmental quality with independent (i.e. mechanical) measurements of air quality and urbanity, from the European Environment Agency, to provide a broad picture of the environmental determinants of life satisfaction, and monetary valuation of air quality improvements. We also estimate that the value of a 1% reduction in air pollution (measured as mean annual PM10 concentrations) is worth the same on average as a 0.71% increase in per capita income. We find that environments which respondents perceive as noisy and lacking in access to green space have a significantly detrimental impact on life satisfaction. However, controlling for these negative factors (air, noise, and lack of green space), we also find a large positive residual impact of urban environments on life satisfaction. The use of independent, GIS-based measures of urbanity (proportion of urban surface area around households), as opposed to survey-based stated perceptions of urbanity, increases the precision of estimated air quality impacts on life satisfaction. Taken as a whole, our analysis highlights the need for conducting LS-based environmental assessment and valuation exercises using a broad array of independent data sources, in order both to obtain unbiased regression estimates and to facilitate interpretation of these estimates.
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels 2
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1071
    Series Statement: Fiscal consolidation across government levels
    Keywords: Finanzbeziehungen ; Finanzpolitik ; Regelbindung versus Diskretion ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fiscal rules that constrain sub-central government (SCG) budgeting are very common across the OECD, but there are substantial cross-country differences in their implementation and impact. This paper presents the 2011 update of the fiscal rules database established in 2005. As in 2005, budget balance objectives are the most common form of rule along with borrowing constraints, while limits on SCG expenditure are rare. Because of trade-offs between objectives that fiscal rules must cater to, cross-country variation in the value of the composite indicator is low. There is, however, much more variation in country scores for the individual objectives of fiscal rules. Despite the increased focus on sustainability in public finances over recent years, indicator values have changed little since 2005 except for a few countries. This suggests that the sub-central fiscal rules framework was in place well before the recent crisis struck.
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  • 49
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (74 S.) , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD working papers on finance, insurance and private pensions 33
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Macroeconomic stability and growth in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region have allowed governments to focus on public policies that build on the complementarities between financial education, inclusion and the development of social capital. Financial education programmes can support the needs of emerging middle classes in managing their finances and benefitting from access to more sophisticated financial markets. They can also be a valuable tool to ensure a more effective financial inclusion of the most vulnerable sectors of the population, and help fight poverty and inequality.
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  • 50
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2013/05
    Keywords: Nachbarschaft ; Wohnstandort ; Gesundheit ; Wohnsoziologie ; Welt ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing is a core element of people’s material living standards. It is essential to meet basic needs, such as for shelter from weather conditions, and to offer a sense of personal security, privacy and personal space. Good housing conditions are also essential for people’s health and affect childhood development. Further, housing costs make up a large share of the household budget and constitute the main component of household wealth. Residential satisfaction is a broad concept, and is associated with multidimensional aspects including physical, social, and neighbourhood factors, as well as psychological and sociodemographic characteristics of the residents. By taking advantage of two household surveys (the EU-SILC ad hoc module on housing for European countries; and the Gallup World Poll for OECD countries and other major economies), this paper uses ordered probit analysis to explore the link between households’ residential satisfaction and a number of variables related to individuals, the households to which they belong, and the characteristics of the dwelling and neighbourhood where they live. The major findings of this analysis show a complex relationship between residential satisfaction and housing characteristics including neighbourhood’s features. Individual and household socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. age, gender, education) play a secondary role once dwelling and neighbourhood features are controlled for. Understanding the factors that lead to satisfaction with housing and residential environment is key for planning successful and effective housing policies.
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 3
    Keywords: -2060 ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Welt ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 945
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht ; Ungarn ; Economics ; Hungary ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using an estimated DSGE model for Hungary, the paper identifies the possible non-Keynesian channels through which a fiscal consolidation may manifest as expansionary. Simulations show that fiscal consolidation policies are typically contractionary. Nevertheless, taking into account some specific features of the Hungarian economy, there is a possibility that expansionary effects arise. These effects may take the form of a drop in interest rate risk premium or favourable balance sheet effects through the appreciation of the currency. However, the credibility of fiscal consolidation is key in achieving positive output effects. A non-credible consolidation is unlikely to expand output, regardless of the assumptions regarding the specific features of the economy, and regardless of the composition of a consolidation package.
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 955
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; Treibhausgas-Emissionen ; Straßengüterverkehr ; Benzin ; Preiselastizität ; Belgien ; Environment ; Economics ; Belgium ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Since 1990, Belgium has managed to bring down greenhouse gas emissions in most domains of economic activity. Road transport, as in many other countries, is a notable exception to this pattern: emissions have steadily increased, driven by an ever higher consumption of petrol and diesel. Even though the current overall performance will probably be sufficient to reach the reduction objectives of the Kyoto protocol, transport emissions thus need to be targeted in the future. One possible measure aimed at reducing them, an increase in fuel taxes, is examined in detail in this paper. The success of such a policy depends on the price elasticity of fuel demand, and therefore, the latter is estimated for Belgium and other European countries. The elasticities obtained are relatively small: in Belgium, for instance, a 10% increase in prices would cause consumption to fall by around 1.8% in the short-run and 2.3% in the medium run. Tax increases alone will thus certainly be insufficient for cutting emissions at this time horizon. Nevertheless, as a supporting measure in a more general reduction strategy, they could still yield substantial advantages. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of Belgium (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Belgium).
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 956
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Three main approaches can be used to assess infrastructure performance. The first employs macro-econometric techniques to estimate the impact of the existing infrastructure capital stock on growth and to infer its growth-maximising level. This approach neglects the impact of infrastructure on some dimensions of social welfare, such as pollution. The second relies on ex-ante or ex-post cost-benefit analyses of infrastructure projects. These take into account desirable and undesirable outcomes and provide thus a welfare perspective, but this approach would not allow comparing the performance of the existing infrastructure stock. A third approach aims at benchmarking the social efficiency of infrastructure service provision based on the existing capital stock taking into account positive and negative externalities. This paper analyses the challenges in implementing these approaches.
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 958
    Keywords: Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Schuldenmanagement ; Ungarn ; Economics ; Hungary ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite a deep recession in 2009 and weak growth in subsequent years, Hungary’s fiscal position compares favourably with many other OECD countries. Nonetheless, the underlying fiscal balance started deteriorating in 2010 and 2011. Recognising this, Hungary’s government launched an ambitious set of fiscal consolidation measures in spring 2011, the Széll Kálmán plan, which is rightly focused on curbing public expenditure. This plan, together with subsequent significant revenue-increasing measures, should help restore fiscal adjustment in 2012 and 2013. However, ensuring the sustainability of Hungarian public debt remains challenging in the context of the persistence of the sovereign debt crisis in many European economies since shifts in market sentiment could lead to unsustainable debt servicing costs. In this context, increasing the credibility of fiscal consolidation requires using several policy levers. First, the cost/risk assessment of the debt management strategy should be reassessed by taking into account lessons from the current crisis: the share of government borrowing in foreign currency will likely need to be drastically reduced. Second, additional consolidation efforts should focus more strongly on the spending side and avoid raising distortive taxes. Third, the fiscal framework should be improved by making fiscal rules less pro-cyclical and by raising the profile and political acceptance of the fiscal council through better analytical support and an enlarged mandate, while removing its power to veto the budget. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Hungary (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/hungary).
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  • 56
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 960
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Ungarn ; Employment ; Economics ; Hungary ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A rapid decrease in unemployment is a short-term priority to limit social problems and reduce the risk of rising structural unemployment. To this end, strengthening labour market policies to sustain labour demand is key. The public works programme should remain temporary and become more focused on training. The authorities should also refrain from further raising the minimum wage. Fundamental structural reforms are needed in the medium term to raise one of the lowest participation rates in the OECD. This challenge is acute in the context of a rapidly ageing population. The authorities have started restructuring the tax/benefit system to make work pay and increase labour supply, yet additional efforts are needed to foster the inclusiveness of the labour market. Groups which are significantly under-represented in the labour market include the low-skilled, youth, the elderly, women of childbearing age, the disabled and the Roma. Structural measures are needed to develop part-time and other flexible forms of employment, reform family policies, ease the integration of people with disability into the labour market, better attune the education system to labour market needs, enhance the level of qualifications and skills at different ages, diminish disincentives to work at older ages and break the segregation of the Roma. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Hungary (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/hungary)
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  • 57
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility 4
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 967
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis in Europe provide evidence that portfolio rebalancing of financial investors can contribute to spread financial turmoil across countries. Rebalancing of portfolios, in turn, may be driven by the need to meet liquidity or capital requirements, or by sudden changes in investor sentiment. This paper tests explicitly for the change-insentiment channel of financial contagion. Using bilateral bank data and an instrumental variables technique that allows focusing on changes in investors’ country assessments that are unrelated to fundamentals, changes in investor sentiment are indeed found to drive capital flows. Sentiment-driven capital flows are found to be smaller in countries with a tougher regulatory stance, such as stricter banking supervision or enhanced financial transparency.
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  • 58
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility 5
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 968
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The global crisis of 2008-09 went in hand with sharp fluctuations in capital flows. To some extent, these fluctuations may have been attributable to uncertainty-averse investors indiscriminately selling assets about which they had poor information, including those in geographically distant locations. Using a gravity equation setup, this paper shows that the impact of distance increases with investors’ uncertainty aversion. Consistent with a sudden increase in uncertainty, the negative impact of distance on foreign holdings increased during the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Host-country structural policies enhancing the quality of information available to foreign investors, such as strict disclosure requirements and prudential bank regulation, tended to mitigate withdrawals.
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  • 59
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 973
    Keywords: 1996-2007 ; Produktivität ; Institutionenökonomik ; Spanien ; Economics ; Spain ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Spanish economy experienced significantly weaker labour productivity growth than other OECD economies and failed to catch up with the most advanced economies in the period 1996-2007. In recent years labour productivity growth has accelerated, but this recovery is likely to be due to cyclical and temporary factors. The aim of this paper is to identify what factors weigh on weak trend productivity growth. The relatively weak performance largely reflects the low growth of total factor productivity within a wide range of sectors, with very limited impact of composition effects, while the capital stock and educational attainment of the workforce have grown relatively strongly. The paper investigates the role of some institutions in deterring innovation, competition and the growth of successful firms. It argues that Spain needs to have a more flexible labour market and collective bargaining system to improve productivity performance. Productivity performance would also benefit from a more flexible business environment in such a way that both entry and exit of firms in the economy are less costly, including a reform of bankruptcy legislation, steps to make civil judicial procedures more efficient and a greater reduction of barriers to entry into the retail trade sector.
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 978
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed conditionally on the current state of the economy and is totally model based and judgement free. The quality of the computed distributions is tested against other approaches to measuring forecast uncertainty and a set of uncertainty indicators is constructed in order to help exploiting the most helpful information.
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  • 61
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 982
    Keywords: Klimapolitik ; Deutschland ; Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Germany reduced greenhouse gas emissions substantially but remains an important emitter. Ambitious targets for climate change mitigation have been fixed and a broad range of environmental measures are being implemented. The efficiency of these measures, as well as their coordination, should be improved though, as reaching the targets risks being costly. In particular, the early phase-out of nuclear power and the development of renewable energy sources will require high levels of investment and public financial support. Establishing a clear carbon price in all sectors of the economy and phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies would contribute to reducing the CO2 abatement cost. The generosity of feed-in tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored and adjusted tightly in line with market developments to avoid deadweight losses and excessive increases in electricity prices. In addition, in order to maintain the German leadership in green sectors and preserve future sources of growth, competition in the energy sectors should be increased and eco-innovation further developed. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 Economic Survey of Germany, www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/germany.
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  • 62
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 987
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey can achieve strong sustainable growth and job creation but further reforms in the labour market, education and product markets are required for such gains to materialise. In recent years, growth has been largely driven by the industrial catch-up of Anatolian regions, although the Marmara area in the West has also been very dynamic. In the process, labour force participation has started to rise anew, but around one third of new low-skilled jobs have been created in the informal sector. Sustaining vigorous growth over the longer run therefore requires pushing ahead with a number of structural reforms. First, Turkey’s rigid labour market regulation needs to evolve, so as to encourage job creation in the formal sector. Second, further progress with education reform, from pre-school all the way to the tertiary level and vocational training, is needed to boost growth and bring about employment gains in the formal sector. Third, implementing product market reforms, notably in network industries, would unleash productivity gains in those sectors and be a boost to the rest of the economy. A set of alternative growth scenarios through 2030 illustrates how progress on these various fronts can deliver lasting improvements in living standards. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 991
    Keywords: Hochschule ; Studium ; Kanada ; Education ; Economics ; Canada ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The tertiary education system in Canada performs well in fostering a skilled workforce with generally good labour-market outcomes and is internationally recognised for its research contributions. Tertiary educational attainment is high, but participation rates will need to continue expanding to maintain the supply of highly skilled labour as the population ages and the needs of the knowledge-based economy rapidly evolve. This should be achieved by encouraging access to higher education for disadvantaged socio-economic groups, while enhancing the flexibility of the system to allow students with diverse needs to move between institutions more easily to meet their learning objectives. Immigration is another important source of skills that could be better utilised. The development of skills for innovation can be improved by increasing the integration of technical, business and communications skills training with practical industry experience within tertiary education programmes. In an environment of government spending restraint, the quality of tertiary education could be strengthened by increasing the distinction between institutions that target research and those that emphasise teaching and re-evaluating tuition policies in provinces where public finances are stretched. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Canada (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Canada).
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 993
    Keywords: 1790-2009 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower economic performance in advanced and emerging economies alike. A string of recent empirical papers broadly validates this threshold value. This paper seeks to contribute to this literature by putting a variant of the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset to a formal econometric testing. Using nonlinear threshold models, there is some evidence in favour of a negative nonlinear relationship between debt and growth. But these results are very sensitive to the time dimension and country coverage considered, data frequency (annual data vs. multi-year averages) and assumptions on the minimum number of observations required in each nonlinear regime. We show that when non-linearity is detected, the negative nonlinear effect kicks in at much lower levels of public debt (between 20% and 60% of GDP). These results, based on bivariate regressions on secular time series, are largely confirmed on a shorter dataset (1960-2010) when using a multivariate growth framework that accounts for traditional drivers of long-term economic growth and model uncertainty. Nonlinear effects might be more complex and difficult to model than previously thought. Instability might be a result of nonlinear effects changing over time, across countries and economic conditions. Further research is certainly needed to fully understand the link between public debt and growth.
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  • 65
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 994
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Portugal ; Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Low growth and huge current account deficits have characterised the Portuguese economy over the past decade. Easy credit in global markets, combined with the absence of incentives to limit loan-to-deposit ratios until recently, made it possible to finance internationally high levels of consumption and investment relative to gross domestic product (GDP) through over reliance of the banking sector on wholesale funding. This led to high households’ and firms’ indebtedness and made banks vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment. However, investment and credit were mostly directed to sheltered sectors, giving rise to an oversized road infrastructure, electricity generation capacity and housing stock. Weaknesses in labour market institutions further held back productivity and hampered wage adjustment, making it harder to gain cost competitiveness. The deleveraging process set in motion by the loss of access to foreign financing is helping to rapidly reduce external deficits, but also has the potential to generate a damaging credit contraction, which enhances the importance of alternative financing strategies for firms, such as greater reliance on equity. To restore growth, Portugal needs to foster the reallocation of both labour and capital, essentially towards the tradable sector. Building on recent policy initiatives or commitments, this will require reforming public policies that have long distorted investment allocation, ensuring that banks adequately recognise and provision problematic loans and, on the employment front, reducing labour market segmentation and increasing targeted training. Reforms in wage setting, labour taxation, unemployment benefits and activation policies will foster job creation, thus enhancing output growth while avoiding high unemployment becoming entrenched and threatening social cohesion. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal).
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 998
    Keywords: Steuerreform ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Indonesia has come a long way in improving its tax system over the last decade, both in terms of revenues raised and administrative efficiency. Nonetheless, the tax take is still low, given the need for more spending on infrastructure and social protection. With the exception of the natural resources sector, increasing tax revenues would be best achieved through broadening tax bases and improving tax administration, rather than changes in the tax schedule that seems broadly in line with international practice. Possible measures to broaden the tax base include bringing more of the self-employed into the tax system, subjecting employer-provided fringe benefits and allowances to personal income taxation and reducing the exemptions from value-added taxes. Similarly, broad-based investment credits would be a less distortive way to enhance investment incentives than selective tax holidays. Introducing a targeted, simplified tax regime for small and medium-sized enterprises, as currently planned by the government, could foster their integration into the tax system in the longer run, even if its short-run revenue potential is limited. Upgrading tax administration has made substantial progress in Indonesia since 2002, although there is still scope to improve the training of tax officers and the administration’s audit and litigation capacities, while strengthening internal control systems and enhancing the transparency of administrative decisions. The audit system could be further improved by allocating more tax audits on the basis of compliance risks. In the natural resources sector, particularly in mining, there is a case for increasing the government’s share of resource rents through higher tax rates imposed on these rents, as opposed to taxing revenues. This would imply a willingness of the government to bear a larger share of the exploration and development risk than heretofore, which Indonesia, with its improved access to international financial markets and a diversified resource portfolio, is now well placed to do. In the mining sector, a powerful rent tax regime with a large government take would serve the country better than export taxes and ownership restrictions that have been decided recently. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Indonesia).
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  • 67
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1008
    Keywords: Armutsbekämpfung ; Estland ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Estonia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The crisis revealed the need for a strategic review of the existing social protection system in Estonia. Extreme income fluctuations on one side and low social benefits on the other side exposed fragile groups in the population to a significant poverty risk. The government has recently commissioned several studies to prepare a systematic reform of the system. The spectrum of options is wide and includes increased generosity, further efficiency gains, strengthening incentives, better access to services and more ambitious activation. In particular, all support programmes should be designed to maximise the prospects of re-integrating beneficiaries into employment. Social benefit recipients should therefore become regular clients of the unemployment insurance offices, and they should benefit from job search assistance and active labour market policies. Scarce resources should be more targeted to those in greatest need. Addressing the large inflows into the disability system is a priority.
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  • 68
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 946
    Keywords: Öffentliche Schulden ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Schock ; Ungarn ; Economics ; Hungary ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Hungarian debt level has steadily increased since 2001, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching about 84% at end-2011. This high level combined with significant volatility of macroeconomic variable influencing potential future debt paths – GDP growth, exchange rate and interest spreads – put Hungarian debt sustainability at risk. To assess debt sustainability over a 5-year horizon, a stochastic debt simulation has been conducted by applying random shocks derived from historical volatility to a baseline scenario. These simulations are used to derive fan charts showing the distribution probability of debt under different sets of assumptions regarding i) the nature of shocks – temporary or permanent – and ii) fiscal policy reactions, i.e. either allowing automatic stabilizers to operate or not. Results indicate that the probability of a debt ratio going beyond 90% of GDP in the next five years – a level beyond which debt is likely to hurt growth – is non-negligible (at least 25% in the most favourable scenario), especially if volatility turns out to be higher than observed in the past. The main risks to debt sustainability lie in growth shocks, whose volatility is high in Hungary. This highlights the crucial role of growth for debt sustainability. The impact of exchange rate depreciation can also be important, especially if shocks are permanent, while the rise in interest spreads would have a much more limited impact as debt is only progressively rolled over. Finally, fiscal policy reaction matters. Offsetting the impact of automatic stabilizers significantly reduces the width of potential debt paths over the five-year horizons.
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  • 69
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 948
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper explores the short-term effects of labour and product market reforms through a dynamic general equilibrium model that features endogenous producer entry, equilibrium unemployment and costly job creation and destruction. Unlike in existing work, the link between labour and product market dynamics and the policy factors driving it are modelled explicitly. The analysis yields three main findings. First, it takes time for reforms to pay off, typically at least a couple of years. This is partly because their benefits materialise through firm entry and increased hiring, both of which are gradual processes, while any reform-driven layoffs are immediate. Second, all reforms appear to stimulate GDP already in the short run, but some of them -- such as job protection reforms -- are found to increase unemployment temporarily. Implementing a broad package of labour and product market reforms enables governments to minimise or even alleviate such transitional costs. Third, reforms are not found to have noticeable deflationary effects, suggesting that the inability of monetary policy to deliver large interest rate cuts in their aftermath -- either because of the zero bound on policy rates or because the country belongs to a large monetary union -- may not be a relevant obstacle to reform implementation. Alternative simple monetary policy rules have little impact on the transitional costs from reforms.
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  • 70
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 954
    Keywords: Finanzpolitik ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Belgien ; Economics ; Belgium ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Economic growth is projected to be strengthening from mid-2011 onwards, but will be insufficient to restore the sustainability of public finances. The Belgian strategy to prefund ageing costs by generating fiscal surpluses to bring down public debt was derailed by the global crisis. Restoring the strategy is a priority, especially as spreads on Belgian debt have increased. This will require cuts in public spending, improving efficiency of policies, containing the growth of ageing-related costs and making the tax system more conducive to growth. While past experiences, such as in the 1990s, have shown that successful large consolidations are feasible, the task seems even more difficult this time as potential growth will be muted and interest rates are likely to increase. In this context, a credible fiscal consolidation plan requires the participation of all governments. Its effectiveness can be strengthened by improving the fiscal framework, in particular by introducing multi-year budgets, annual expenditure rules consistent with long-term targets and an enhanced role of an independent fiscal policy watchdog.
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  • 71
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 957
    Keywords: Gesundheitswesen ; Polen ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Poland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Since the transformation following the Communist era, Poland has matched improvements in health outcomes of the most developed OECD countries, although without catching up the ground lost during the 1970s and 1980s. The health status of the population remains relatively poor, although after controlling for per capita income health outcomes are only slightly below the OECD average. The Polish health-care system is characterised by low spending, a heavily regulated public system with a stringent budget constraint, restricted sub-national government autonomy and a thin private insurance market. Heavy out-of-pocket payments and long waiting lists generate inequalities in access to care. The most pressing issues to be addressed concern: easing the substantial limitations in access to care; reducing persistent inequalities; carefully designing new private health insurance; better coordinating among major public actors; improving hospital management; strengthening the gate-keeping function played by generalists; and developing a comprehensive long-term-care strategy. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Poland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Poland).
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  • 72
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 962
    Keywords: Wohnungsmarkt ; Immobilienpreis ; Bauinvestition ; Immobilienfinanzierung ; Finnland ; Urban, Rural and Regional Development ; Economics ; Finland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The Finnish housing market is volatile. After declining significantly as the global financial crisis unfolded, housing prices and investment recovered to reach new peaks. This paper uses a small econometric model to assess the role of fundamentals in housing price and investment developments. Current housing valuations and residential investment are broadly in line with the model estimates. Housing market volatility is exacerbated by fluctuations in the wider economy, which given its size and openness is vulnerable to external shocks. Structural features of the housing market also make it prone to volatility. The paper describes institutional characteristics of the Finnish housing market that bear on house price volatility and supply responsiveness. These relate to the structure of tenures, housing taxation and subsidies, social housing, financing, land-use planning, and competition in the construction industry.
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  • 73
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 964
    Keywords: Nachhaltige Entwicklung ; Immissionsschutz ; Umweltpolitik ; Südkorea ; Environment ; Economics ; Korea, Republic of ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Korea, which has had the highest growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD area since 1990, adopted an ambitious Green Growth Strategy in 2009. It aims at reducing emissions by 30% by 2020 relative to a “business as usual” scenario, implying a 4% cut from the 2005 level. The Strategy also includes a Five-Year Plan with public spending of 2% of GDP per year to promote green growth. Korea is planning to establish a carbon price through a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme. Such an approach, combined with a carbon tax in sectors not covered by the scheme, is necessary to reduce emissions in a cost-effective manner and foster innovation in green technology. In addition, each sector should face the same electricity price based on production costs to promote efficient energy use. Given market failures, the government has a role to play in green R&D, particularly for basic research, in fostering green finance and in developing renewable energy resources.
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility 7
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 970
    Series Statement: International capital mobility and financial fragility
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper brings together the results from new empirical analysis on how – under international capital mobility – financial account structure and structural policies can contribute to financial stability. More specifically, the analysis has identified features of financial accounts and structural policy settings that are associated with financial fragility, and this paper presents information on these features and policy settings across a wide set of countries. A first set of charts present stability-relevant dimensions of the financial account for OECD economies and the BRIICS. A second set of charts shows how countries' financial account structure evolved in the decade prior to the global financial crisis, highlighting substantial increases in financial vulnerability in countries that were subsequently strongly affected by the crisis. Finally, a third set of charts presents countries' stances on selected structural policies that are conducive to financial stability.
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 975
    Keywords: Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite sound policies and institutions, Danish productivity has grown modestly over the past decade, both historically and in relation to other countries, contributing to weak economic growth and an erosion in competitiveness. An examination of the four potential drivers of this puzzle, namely competition, education, labour market flexibility and the size of the public sector, shows that there is room for improvement in all areas, calling for action on each of these fronts. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Denmark (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/denmark).
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 976
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics. The “bad equilibrium” is characterised by the simultaneous occurrence, and adverse feedbacks between, high and growing fiscal deficits and debt, high risk premia on sovereign debt, slumping economic activity and plummeting confidence, whereas a “good equilibrium” is characterized by stable growth and debt and low risk premia. We use this framework to identify – both theoretically and empirically – the good and bad equilibrium levels of debt and policies that can help a country caught in a bad equilibrium to recover. The analysis shows that despite some output loss in the short run fiscal consolidation can help countries escape from the bad equilibrium trap. More broadly, we find that a combination of financial backstops, structural reform and fiscal consolidation is most effective in helping countries getting onto a sustainable path.
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  • 77
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 980
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper examines how import penetration affects firms' productivity growth taking into account the heterogeneity in firms' distance to the efficiency frontier and country differences in product market regulation. Using firm-level data for a large number of OECD countries, the analysis reveals non-linear effects of both sectoral import penetration and de jure product market regulation measures depending on firms' positions along the global distribution of productivity levels. The heterogeneous effects of international competition and domestic product market regulation on firm-level productivity growth are consistent with a neo-Schumpeterian view of trade and regulation. Close to the technology frontier, import competition has a strongly positive effect on firm-level productivity growth, with stringent domestic regulation reducing this effect substantially. However, far from the frontier, neither import competition nor its interaction with domestic regulation has a statistically significant effect on firm-level productivity growth. The results suggest that insufficient attention has been made in the trade literature to within-firm productivity growth.
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  • 78
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 983
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Deutschland ; Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The strength of the German labour market response to the financial crisis of 2008-09 demonstrated the benefits of past labour market reforms, which raised work incentives, improved job matching and increased working hour flexibility. Going forward, the government should build on this success and address the remaining challenges which include raising the labour participation of females and older workers (which among other things will necessitate adjustments to the tax and education system) and fostering migration, notably of skilled workers. The significant ageing-related decline in the labour force exemplifies the urgency of further structural reforms in this area. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 Economic Survey of Germany, www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/germany.
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  • 79
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 984
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Portugal ; Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme. The analysis is based on stochastic simulations in which random shocks affect the main economic variables in the framework of a small macroeconomic model. The model captures the mutual interdependences between the fiscal position, financial conditions and activity and notably the impact of public debt developments on investors’ confidence and interest rates. Results suggest that under the large fiscal consolidation programme that is currently implemented, both fiscal policy strategies considered would in most cases result in sustainable debt dynamics. Both strategies also entail risks, but of a different nature: the risk of a deeper recession if sticking to nominal targets and the risk of higher debt if letting automatic stabilisers play. Sensitivity analyses show that these risks could be reduced by stimulating potential growth through structural reform and by choosing “growth friendly” fiscal consolidation instruments that have lower multipliers. By reducing recessionary risks, a small fiscal multiplier also increases the relative benefits of sticking to nominal deficit targets, while the benefits of automatic stabilisers are larger if the multiplier is high. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal).
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  • 80
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD statistics working papers 2012/4
    Keywords: Humankapital ; Messung ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The paper reviews some national initiatives related to measuring the stock of human capital, indentifies some challenges to be addressed to improve the quality of existing monetary measures of human capital, and suggests developing experimental satellite accounts for education to better understand how human capital is produced and the linkages between education and its non-monetary outcomes.
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  • 81
    Language: English
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    Series Statement: OECD social, employment and migration working papers 137
    Keywords: 2008-2009 ; Wirtschaftskrise ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Arbeitsmobilität ; Kündigung ; Deutschland ; Employment ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: We examine the response of a large panel of German establishments to the crisis in terms of their job flows (changes in employment) and consequent worker flows (hires, separations and layoffs). We analyse the extent to which job flows and worker flows at the establishment level are systematically related to institutional arrangements intended to promote flexibility such as Kurzarbeit (short-time work, STW) and Arbeitszeitkonten (working-time accounts, WTA). We find pronounced evidence of labour hoarding in the sense that labour productivity fell rapidly during the 2008-09 downturn, but we find no evidence that STW (or other policies) increased labour hoarding by reducing layoffs. This may well reflect the probable selection effects involved which are not accounted for by observable differences between STW and non- STW establishments.
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD social, employment and migration working papers 139
    Keywords: Flexicurity ; Dänemark ; Employment ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Denmark ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A key feature of the Danish labour market is its so-called flexicurity, the coexistence of flexibility (low adjustment costs for both employers and employees) and security (owing to a developed social safety net with high coverage and high replacement ratios). This is often believed to have contributed to the resilience of the Danish labour market and especially to its ability to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate. The aim of this paper is to examine the performance of the flexicurity system and changes therein during the previous three decades, including the first years of the Great Recession. We carry out two types of analyses: at the levels of establishments and employees, respectively. First, we use linked employer-employee data for the private sector to examine how labour demand responds to output shocks by a study of firms’ labour adjustment behaviour during economic upturns and downturns. Second, based on the same data set we examine how the flexicurity system protects workers from income losses associated with job losses due to plant closures or major lay-offs. In particular, we are interested in how the transformation of the flexicurity system since the mid-nineties to increasingly emphasise activation and to reduce maximum unemployment benefit durations has changed employees’ security in case of displacement. We document large worker flows that exhibit strong cyclical variation giving rise to volatile unemployment dynamics. External flexibility of firms has remained unchanged for almost three decades. While we find no clear traces of trend changes in employers’ labour adjustment behaviour, we do find that income losses of displaced workers have declined over time, mainly due to their faster re-employment. Although it is still early days to conclude with certainty, there are so far no strong indications of the reemergence of unemployment hysteresis to the same extent as in previous recessions.
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 947
    Keywords: Immobilienpreis ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Privater Konsum ; Zins ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in a six-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer prices, residential investment, real house prices and mortgage loans, while private consumption and nominal interest rate responses are left unrestricted. The results suggest that consumption responds positively and significantly to a house price shock in Canada, France, Japan and the UK. A significant positive delayed response of nominal interest rates follows a house price shock in Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, suggesting that while central banks do not seem to respond instantly and systematically to a housing demand shock, their repercussions on the economy tend to translate into higher policy rates after a few quarters.
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  • 84
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 949
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Drawing on new empirical analysis of 30 years of structural reforms across the OECD, this paper sheds light on the impact of reforms over time, identifies the horizon over which their full effects materialise, and investigates whether such effects vary with prevailing economic conditions and institutions. Impulse responses of aggregate outcomes (GDP growth, employment rate) to various labour, product market and tax reforms are estimated at different horizons. This analysis indicates that the benefits from reforms typically take time to fully materialise. When significant effects are found in the short run, reforms seldom involve significant aggregate economic losses; on the contrary they often deliver some benefits. The absence of major depressing effects does not lend support to the view that reforms should be in general accompanied by substantial macroeconomic policy easing in order to deliver some short-term gains. Nevertheless, there is also tentative evidence that some labour market reforms (e.g. of unemployment benefit systems and job protection) pay off more quickly in good times than in bad times, and can even entail short-term losses in severely depressed economies.
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  • 85
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 951
    Keywords: Armut ; Einkommensverteilung ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Chile ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Chile ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Notwithstanding impressive progress, poverty and inequality remain high in Chile in OECD comparison, and the tax-benefit system does little to improve on this. The government plans to introduce a new cash transfer for the poor, the Ingreso Ético Familiar. This is a welcome initiative. However, the transfer will be modest by OECD standards, at least initially, and it will be quite narrowly targeted at families living in extreme poverty. Over time, the government should consider increasing the size of this transfer and opening it to a wider range of beneficiaries through gradual benefit withdrawal. Strong support for the poor to find jobs of decent quality will be key to help them overcome poverty in a sustainable way. Ingreso Ético Familiar will come with an employment programme for beneficiaries. This should build on the existing infrastructure of active labour market policies, which will need to improve at the same time. The government should strengthen the capacity of local labour offices and use the current evaluation of training programmes to retain only those of proven effectiveness, while focusing them more on low-skilled workers and the unemployed. Strengthening unemployment benefits, while limiting severance pay, would make employment protection more effective and do more to avoid labour market duality. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 86
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 952
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Umverteilung ; Gini-Koeffizient ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; European Union ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Poor growth performance over the past decades in Europe has increased concerns for rising income dispersion and social exclusion. European authorities have recently launched the Europe 2020 strategy which aims to improve social inclusion in Europe on top of already existing European regional policies aiming to reduce regional disparities through stimulating growth in areas where incomes are relatively low. While it is most common to confine measures of inequality to national borders, the existence of such union-wide objectives and policies motivates measuring income dispersion among all Europeans in this paper. Towards the end of the 2000s the income distribution in Europe was more unequal than in the average OECD country, albeit notably less so than in the United States. It is the within-country, not the between-country dimension, which appears to be most important. Inequality in Europe has risen quite substantially since the mid 1980s. While the EU enlargement process has contributed to this, it is not the only explanation since inequality has also increased within a “core” of 8 European countries. Large income gains among the 10% top earners appear to be a main driver behind this evolution.
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  • 87
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 963
    Keywords: Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Korea, Republic of ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Korea faces the challenge of reversing rising inequality while sustaining robust economic growth. Welltargeted increases in Korea’s low level of social spending are needed to fill holes in the safety net, especially for the elderly. The development of social security depends on closing gaps in coverage, which are due in part to labour market dualism. Dualism creates serious equity concerns, as non-regular workers face significantly lower wages, precarious jobs, less coverage by social security and less training. A comprehensive approach is required to break down dualism, including reduced employment protection for regular workers, improved social insurance coverage for non-regular workers and expanded training of non-regular workers. Education reforms are also needed to promote inclusive growth, notably by: i) improving the access of low-income children to high-quality early childhood education and care; ii) reducing reliance on private tutoring, notably at hagwons; and iii) expanding income-contingent loans to tertiary students.
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  • 88
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 965
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Produktionspotenzial ; Wirtschaftliche Konvergenz ; Südkorea ; Economics ; Korea, Republic of ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: While Korea remains one of the fastest-growing OECD economies, its potential growth rate per capita is projected to decelerate from around 4% during the current decade to around 2¼ per cent during the 2030s. Sustaining growth requires policies to mitigate the impact of rapid population ageing by increasing labour inputs from under-utilised segments of the population. In particular, female labour participation should be encouraged by better work-life balance and increasing the availability of high-quality, affordable childcare, in part by raising tuition fee subsidies and improving the quality of private childcare centres. More flexible employment and wage systems would increase the age at which older workers leave firms. For young people, improved vocational education at the secondary and tertiary levels would help overcome the labour mismatch problem and the overemphasis on tertiary education. Enhancing educational quality at all levels would promote productivity gains, including in services. Strengthened competition is also a key to narrow the large productivity gap between services and manufacturing.
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  • 89
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 971
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Economic downturns which have their roots in preceding credit excesses and debt overhang have tended historically to be long lasting, whether the financial sector remained healthy or not. There are no good reasons to believe the current global crisis will be any different. Moreover, it is argued in this paper that the policy responses to the crisis to date, both macroeconomic and structural, will not succeed in restoring sustainable growth. Monetary and fiscal stimulus might raise aggregate demand in the short run, but they contribute to higher debt levels which are already working increasingly in the opposite direction. Structural policies intended to maintain pre crisis production patterns, both in the financial and industrial sectors, ignore the unsustainability of those structures in the first place. Alternative policies are needed to meet the G 20’s goal of “strong, sustainable and balanced growth”. They include more international cooperation between creditor and debtor countries (on both exchange rates and production structures), more recourse to explicit debt restructuring (for both households and sovereigns), and structural polices to raise potential growth and make debts more sustainable. Unfortunately, there remain formidable practical and political obstacles to pursuing such policies. Future debt crises of the current magnitude could be avoided by using monetary, macro prudential and fiscal policies more symmetrically over the business cycle. Relative to past behaviour, this would imply more vigorous resistance to credit financed upswings, and a greater willingness to accept the cleansing effect of minor downswings. Policies to ensure financial stability are important but secondary.
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  • 90
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 972
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called “six pack” to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the “fiscal compact”. Much of the discussion about the new rules has been procedural or theoretical. This paper shows what the rules will mean in practice under a realistic mediumterm scenario developed by the OECD. In the short term, fiscal consolidation will largely be driven by the current wave of Excessive Deficit Procedures. Only once these commitments are fulfilled will the new system of rules come into action. Although the rules are complex, the central pillar of the new fiscal rules will be the requirement to balance budgets in structural terms. These imply a tight fiscal stance over the coming years for many European countries by comparison with the performance achieved in past decades: almost all countries will have to be as disciplined as the few countries that managed to make meaningful progress in tackling high debt levels in the past. A further tightening of budgetary Medium-Term Objectives is likely in 2012, which will in many cases make the required fiscal stance even tighter. Over the very long term, the rules imply very low levels of debt. The requirements can thus not be considered to be a permanent approach. The methodology to calculate the structural balance has a number of weaknesses and discretion will be needed in implementing the rules.
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  • 91
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 979
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence does not convey any information on the specific source of uncertainty nor the magnitude and balance of risks in the immediate conjuncture. Moreover, specific parametric assumptions on the probability distribution of forecasting errors are needed in order to draw confidence bands around point forecasts. This paper proposes an alternative time-varying simulated RMSE, obtained by means of non-parametric stochastic simulations, which combines the uncertainty around the model’s parameters and the structural errors term to construct asymmetric confidence bands around point forecasts. The procedure is applied, by way of example, to the short-term real GDP growth forecasts generated by the OECD Indicator Model for Germany. The empirical probability distributions of the GDP growth forecasts, derived through the bootstrapping technique, allow the ex ante probability of, for example, a negative GDP growth forecast for the current quarter to be estimated. The results suggest the presence of peaks of higher uncertainty related to economic recession events, with a balance of risks which became negative in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.
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  • 92
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 981
    Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum ; Produktivität ; Finnland ; Economics ; Finland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Impressive productivity performance during the last decades has weakened since 2007, reflecting the 2008-09 recession but also a poor performance in important sectors, like the information and communication technology sector. Reforms to raise long term productivity growth need to be pursued. Current project-based R&D-support and business subsidies seem inefficient and should be scaled back and remaining support should focus on addressing externalities in terms of the creation of high productive jobs and R&D spillovers. A R&D tax credit could provide higher flexibility, equity and efficiency than current targeted support. Capital taxation should be streamlined to improve incentives for entrepreneurship and growth. The performance of the higher education system could be improved through allocating more R&D funding and teaching resources based on quality rather than block grants. Productivity performance could be enhanced by exposing sectors like health provision, network industries and retailing to more competition through lowering government dominance in provision and loosening planning restrictions. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Finland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/finland).
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  • 93
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 985
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Portugal ; Economics ; Portugal ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Owing to slow growth and a relatively weak fiscal position, Portugal’s public debt had been rising for almost a decade when the global crisis struck, sharply increasing the deficit. The loss of confidence in Portuguese and other euro area sovereign bonds required international financial support. Weak fiscal performance reflects a wide range of fiscal structural problems resulting in poor control of expenditure. At both the central and local levels, this was compounded by the non-transparent accumulation of payment arrears, future spending obligations via Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) and off-balance sheet debt in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In line with the EU-IMF programme, the government is steadfastly implementing an ambitious front-loaded consolidation plan underpinned by a wide range of structural reforms. In a context of weak private sector demand, the government’s ability to regain control over public debt dynamics depends crucially on avoiding spending overruns. This will require reinforcing the fiscal framework to improve expenditure control, tackling payment arrears and avoiding further negative surprises from loss-making SOEs, PPPs and local governments. The success of the programme will also require maintaining social consensus around it, notably through continuous attention to its implications for the poorest. If growth is far lower than projected in the programme, the automatic stabilisers could be allowed to operate at least partially to reduce the risks of a deeper recession and higher unemployment. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal).
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  • 94
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 990
    Keywords: Economics ; China, People’s Republic ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper explores the productivity impact of trade, product market and financial market policies over the last decade in China – a fast growing country where, despite significant reform action, regulatory stance remains still far from OECD standards. The paper makes a critical distinction between downstream and upstream industries, focusing on the indirect effects of regulation in upstream industries on firm performance in downstream manufacturing industries. This framework allows investigating the link between these policies and productivity growth depending on how far incumbents are relative to the technological frontier. The analysis is novel in several respects. Drawing on new OECD policy indicators of sector-level product market regulation and firm level data, econometric estimates deliver new evidence on the potential gains from product and financial market reforms in China, two policy areas that had not been studied in previous empirical literature. Firm-level microeconomic data further allow shedding light on the differential effects of policies within industries, while also highlighting the potential channels through which productivity is affected by reform. The key conclusion that can be derived from the empirical analysis is that further product, trade and financial market reforms would bring substantial gains in China and could therefore speed up the convergence process. Taken at face value, the empirical estimates would imply that aligning product, trade and financial market regulation to the average level observed in OECD countries would bring aggregate manufacturing productivity gains of respectively 9%, 4% and 6.5% after five years. Trade and product market reforms are found to deliver stronger gains for firms that are closer to the industry-level technological frontier, while the reverse holds for financial market reforms.
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  • 95
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 997
    Keywords: Economics ; Canada ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper discusses how to improve Canada’s business innovation in order to boost labour productivity and output growth. Many general framework conditions are highly favourable to business risk-taking and innovation, including macro stability, openness, strong human capital, low corporate tax rates, low barriers to firm entry and flexible labour markets. However, they can be improved further by reduced external and interprovincial barriers in network and professional service sectors, more efficient capital markets, fewer capital tax distortions and improved patent protection. A second focus should be on ensuring that incentives arising from government subsidies are targeted on actual market failures. The very high level of support to business R&D via the federal Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax credit and provincial top-ups may affect the incentives of small firms to grow and should be redesigned. A plethora of small, fragmented granting programmes, mainly geared to SMEs, should be streamlined for better government-business collaboration. The large public share in venture capital should be wound down, as it may crowd out more productive private finance. A final focus should be on boosting manager and worker skills that are intrinsic to all forms of innovation, by filling gaps in training, mentoring and education. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Review of Canada (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Canada).
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  • 96
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 999
    Keywords: 1981-2008 ; Sparquote ; Deutschland ; Economics ; Germany ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses household level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) over the period 1991 to 2008 to analyse the driving factors of movements in the German household savings rate. Specifically, it analyses the impact of the precautionary savings motive and the impact of the 2002 private pension reform (the so-called Riester reform) on households’ savings rate as these factors are among the most discussed in the German context. There is evidence for both factors at work: First, households with a more volatile income stream tend to save more and the extent to which they do depends on their (subjectively assessed) risk aversion. Second, the introduction of the Riester pension scheme in 2002 was associated with a general increase in the household savings rate, both for households that signed up for private pension contracts and for those that did not. This effect is not found for low-income households, thus confirming the findings of other studies.
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  • 97
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1001
    Keywords: Technologiepolitik ; USA ; Science and Technology ; Economics ; United States ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The US innovation system has many strengths, including world class research universities and firms that thrive in innovation-intensive sectors. However, fissures have begun to appear, notably in the areas of human capital development, the patent system and manufacturing activity, while public investments in R&D and research universities are at risk of being curtailed by budget cuts. Revitalizing the dynamism of innovation has become a priority for US policymakers. To this end, it is important that federal and state governments sustain financial support for knowledge creation. The US workforce’s skills will need to be upgraded, especially in STEM fields, and measures taken to provide more favourable framework conditions for developing advanced manufacturing in the United States. While the recent patent reform is a big step in the right direction, patent reform needs to be taken further by ensuring that the legal standards for granting injunctive relief and damages awards for patent infringement reflect realistic business practices and the relative contributions of patented components of complex technologies.
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  • 98
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1004
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Accumulating debt raises concerns about its implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper sheds light on the implications of high indebtedness for the macroeconomic volatility by identifying the main drivers of the evolution of debt in a set of countries. The country choice was based on large deleveraging episodes of total economy debt, identified by turning point dating. The analysis shows that GDP is more volatile in the phase of deleveraging. However, countries can be distinguished into two groups. In a first set of countries (Germany, Israel, Mexico and the United States) economic activity has often rebounded during the phase of deleveraging. On the contrary, in a second group of countries, the higher volatility during the deleveraging phase has been accompanied by sluggish economic activity. Countries in this second group (for instance, Japan and Sweden) share the common characteristic that higher indebtedness was driven by a boom in asset prices. When asset prices burst, the financial sector cuts credit supply, which weighs on economic activity. The results also suggest that many episodes of debt leveraging have been naturally driven by boom in asset price used as collateral or by financial liberalisation, which have facilitated excessive borrowing.
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  • 99
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1005
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using a large panel of OECD countries this paper studies the link between debt and macroeconomic stability by comparing the evolution of balance sheet aggregates and economic output in high- and lowdebt environments. While the relationship between debt and economic growth has been extensively studied in the literature, only little attention has been paid to the impact of debt on volatility and higher moments of output growth distributions. This paper fills in this gap. Debt-fuelled expansions are found to typically last longer but to culminate in a more sizeable downturn. The greater amplitude of business cycles in high-debt environments reflects higher macroeconomic volatility but also higher tail risks and adverse asymmetries in output growth distributions. The induced welfare losses justify policy interventions aiming at preventing excessive build-ups in debt ex-ante.
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  • 100
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1006
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: How does debt affect macroeconomic stability? The answer to this question has important implications, because both public and private debt levels have reached historic highs across the OECD. While accumulating debt can help smooth real activity, at high levels debt creates weaknesses in corporate, household and government balance sheets. High debt levels can create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks across the economy and internationally. The empirical evidence shows that high debt levels impair the ability of households and enterprises to smooth consumption and investment and of governments to cushion adverse shocks. The empirical evidence also suggests that when private sector debt levels, particularly for households, rise above trend the likelihood of recession increases. Furthermore, when debt levels are high, recessions tend to be more severe.
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