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  • 2010-2014  (24)
  • 1990-1994
  • Ravallion, Martin  (24)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (24)
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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin How Long Will it Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?
    Kurzfassung: Alternative scenarios are considered for reducing by one billion the number of people living below
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Van de Walle, Dominique Long-Term Impacts of Household Electrification in Rural India
    Kurzfassung: India's huge expansion in rural electrification in the 1980s and 1990s offers lessons for other countries today. The paper examines the long-term effects of household electrification on consumption, labor supply, and schooling in rural India over 1982-99. It finds that household electrification brought significant gains to consumption and earnings, the latter through changes in market labor supply. It finds positive effects on schooling for girls but not for boys. External effects are also evident, whereby households without electricity benefit from village electrification. Wage rates were unaffected. Methodologically, the results suggest sizeable upward biases in past estimates of the gains from electrification associated with how past analyses dealt with geographic effects
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  • 3
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Murgai, Rinku Is Workfare Cost-Effective against Poverty in a Poor Labor-Surplus Economy?
    Kurzfassung: Workfare schemes impose work requirements on beneficiaries. This has seemed an attractive idea for self-targeting transfers to poor people. This incentive argument does not imply, however, that workfare is more cost-effective against poverty than even poorly-targeted options, given hidden costs of participation. In particular, even poor workfare participants in a labor-surplus economy can be expected to have some forgone income when they take up such a scheme. A survey-based method is used to assess the cost-effectiveness of India's Employment Guarantee Scheme in Bihar. Participants are found to have forgone earnings, although these fall well short of market wages on average. Factoring in these hidden costs, the paper finds that for the same budget, workfare has less impact on poverty than either a basic-income scheme (providing the same transfer to all) or uniform transfers based on the government's below-poverty-line ration cards. For workfare to dominate other options, it would have to work better in practice. Reforms would need to reduce the substantial unmet demand for work, close the gap between stipulated wages and wages received, and ensure that workfare is productive-that the assets created are of value to poor people. Cost-effectiveness would need to be reassessed at the implied higher levels of funding
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (26 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Quy-Toan Do Trade Insulation as Social Protection
    Kurzfassung: In a world with volatile food prices, countries have an incentive to shelter their populations from induced real income shocks. When some agents are net food producers while others are net consumers, there is scope for insurance between the two groups. A domestic social protection scheme would therefore transfer resources away from the former group to the latter in times of high food prices, and do the reverse otherwise. This paper shows that in the presence of consumer preference heterogeneity, implementing the optimal social protection policy can potentially induce higher food price volatility. Such policy indeed generates a counter-cyclical demand shock that amplifies the effects of the underlying food shortage. The results call for a reassessment of food stabilization policies. In particular, the authors urge caution against the systematic condemnation of trade insulation practices
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  • 5
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Benefit Incidence with Incentive Effects, Measurement Errors and Latent Heterogeneity
    Kurzfassung: Empirical studies of tax and benefit incidence routinely ignore behavioral responses and measurement errors. This paper offers an econometric method of estimating the mean benefit withdrawal rate (marginal tax rate) allowing for incentive effects, measurement errors, and correlated latent heterogeneity in incidence. Under the method's identifying assumptions, a feasible instrumental variables estimator corrects for incentive effects and measurement errors, and provides a bound for the true value when there is correlated incidence heterogeneity. A case study for a large cash transfer program in China indicates that past methods of assessing benefit incidence using either nominal official rates or raw tabulations from survey data are deceptive. The program entails a nominal 100 percent benefit withdrawal rate-a poverty trap. However, the paper finds that the actual rate is much lower, and clearly too low in the light of the literature on optimal income taxation. The paper discusses likely reasons based on the qualitative observations
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  • 6
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (31 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Testing Information Constraints on India's Largest Antipoverty Program
    Kurzfassung: Public knowledge about India's ambitious Employment Guarantee Scheme is low in one of India's poorest states, Bihar, where participation is also unusually low. Is the solution simply to tell people their rights? Or does their lack of knowledge reflect deeper problems of poor people's agency and an unresponsive supply side? This paper reports on an information campaign that was designed and implemented in the form of an entertaining movie to inform people of their rights under the scheme. In randomly-assigned villages, the movie brought significant gains in knowledge and more positive perceptions about the impact of the scheme. But objectively measured employment showed no gain on average, suggesting that the movie created a "groupthink," changing social perceptions about the scheme but not individual efficacy in accessing it. The paper concludes that awareness generation needs to go hand-in-hand with supply-side changes
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Can Subjective Questions on Economic Welfare be Trusted?
    Kurzfassung: While self-assessments of welfare have become popular for measuring poverty and estimating welfare effects, the methods can be deceptive given systematic heterogeneity in respondents' scales. Little is known about this problem. This study uses specially-designed surveys in three countries, Tajikistan, Guatemala, and Tanzania, to study scale heterogeneity. Respondents were asked to score stylized vignettes, as well as their own household. Diverse scales are in evidence, casting considerable doubt on the meaning of widely-used summary measures such as subjective poverty rates. Nonetheless, under the identifying assumptions of the study, only small biases are induced in the coefficients on widely-used regressors for subjective poverty and welfare
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Poor, or Just Feeling Poor?
    Kurzfassung: The challenges faced in calibrating poverty and welfare measures to objective data have long been recognized. Until recently, most economists have resisted a seemingly obvious solution, namely to ask people themselves: "Do you feel poor?" The paper studies the case for and against this approach. It is argued that, while one would not want to use self-assessments as welfare metrics in their own right, there is scope for using such data to help calibrate multidimensional measures. Indeed, the idea of a "social subjective poverty line" (below which people tend to think they are poor, but above which they do not) is arguably the most conceptually appealing way of defining poverty. However, the paper points to a number of concerns that have received insufficient attention, including the choice of covariates, survey design issues, measurement errors, frame-of-reference effects, and latent heterogeneity in personality traits and personal tradeoffs. Directions for future research are identified
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Alik Lagrange, Arthur Evaluating Workfare When the Work is Unpleasant
    Kurzfassung: Prevailing practices in evaluating workfare programs have ignored the disutility of the type of work done, with theoretically ambiguous implications for the impacts on poverty. In the case of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, past assessments have relied solely on household consumption per person as the measure of economic welfare. The paper generalizes this measure to allow for the disutility of casual manual work. The new measure is calibrated to the distribution of the preference parameters implied by maximization of an idiosyncratic welfare function assuming that there is no rationing of the available work. The adjustment implies a substantially more "poor-poor" incidence of participation in the scheme than suggested by past methods. However, the overall impacts on poverty are lower, although still positive. The main conclusions are robust to a wide range of alternative parameter values and to allowing for involuntary unemployment using a sample of (self-declared) un-rationed workers
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  • 10
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Dutta, Puja Does India's Employment Guarantee Scheme Guarantee Employment?
    Kurzfassung: In 2005 India introduced an ambitious national anti-poverty program, now called the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The program offers up to 100 days of unskilled manual labor per year on public works projects for any rural household member who wants such work at the stipulated minimum wage rate. The aim is to dramatically reduce poverty by providing extra earnings for poor families, as well as empowerment and insurance. If the program worked in practice the way it is designed, then anyone who wanted work on the scheme would get it. However, analysis of data from India's National Sample Survey for 2009/10 reveals considerable un-met demand for work in all states. The authors confirm expectations that poorer families tend to have more demand for work on the scheme, and that (despite the un-met demand) the self-targeting mechanism allows it to reach relatively poor families and backward castes. The extent of the un-met demand is greater in the poorest states-ironically where the scheme is needed most. Labor-market responses to the scheme are likely to be weak. The scheme is attracting poor women into the workforce, although the local-level rationing processes favor men
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  • 11
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Can We Trust Shoestring Evaluations?
    Kurzfassung: Many more impact evaluations could be done, and at lower unit cost, if evaluators could avoid the need for baseline data using objective socio-economic surveys and rely instead on retrospective subjective questions on how outcomes have changed, asked post-intervention. But would the results be reliable? This paper tests a rapid-appraisal, "shoestring," method using subjective recall for welfare changes. The recall data were collected at the end of a full-scale evaluation of a large poor-area development program in China. Qualitative recalls of how living standards have changed are found to provide only weak and biased signals of the changes in consumption as measured from contemporaneous surveys. Importantly, the shoestring method was unable to correct for the selective placement of the program favoring poor villages. The results of this case study are not encouraging for future applications of the shoestring method, although similar tests are needed in other settings
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  • 12
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Shaohua Chen More Relatively-Poor People in a Less Absolutely-Poor World
    Kurzfassung: Relative deprivation, shame and social exclusion can matter to the welfare of people everywhere. The authors argue that such social effects on welfare call for a reconsideration of how we assess global poverty, but they do not support standard measures of relative poverty. The paper argues instead for using a weakly-relative measure as the upper-bound complement to the lower-bound provided by a standard absolute measure. New estimates of global poverty are presented, drawing on 850 household surveys spanning 125 countries over 1981-2008. The absolute line is
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  • 13
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Benchmarking Global Poverty Reduction
    Kurzfassung: Against what standards should we judge the developing world's overall performance against poverty going forward? The paper proposes two measures, each with both "optimistic" and "ambitious" targets for 2022, 10 years from the time of writing. The first measure is absolute consumption poverty, as judged by what "poverty" means in the poorest countries. The second is a new relative poverty measure, embracing social inclusion needs consistently with national poverty lines. The optimistic benchmark would entail an absolute poverty rate of 9 percent in 2022, and a relative poverty rate of 40 percent. The more ambitious targets would bring the absolute rate down to 3 percent and the relative rate to 33 percent. The optimistic target would maintain the (impressive) progress against poverty of the last 20 years, without global crises to stall that progress. The ambitious target would require about a 1 percentage point higher growth rate for the gross domestic product of the developing world, as long as this did not come with a reduction in the household sector's share or any further increase in overall inequality after its level in 2008. Alternatively, the 3 percent target could be reached at currently expected growth rates but at the lower level of inequality in 1999
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  • 14
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (52 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin The two poverty enlightenments
    Kurzfassung: Word searches of Google's library of digitized books suggest that there have been two “Poverty Enlightenments” since 1700, one near the end of the 18th century and the second near the end of the 20th. The historical literature suggests that only the second came with a widespread belief that poverty could and should be eliminated. After the first Poverty Enlightenment, references to “poverty” (as a percentage of all words) were on a trend decline until 1960, after which there was a striking resurgence of interest, which came with rising attention to economics and more frequent references to both general and specific policies relevant to poverty. Developing countries also became more prominent in the literature. Both Enlightenments came with greater attention to human rights. The written record reflects the push-back against government intervention and the retreat from leftist economics and politics since the late 1970s. Although many debates from 200 years ago continue today, there is little sign that the modern revival of the classical 19th century views on the limitations of government has come with a revival of the complacency about poverty that was common early in that century
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  • 15
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (47 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Lambert, Sylvie Is it what you Inherited or what you Learnt?
    Kurzfassung: Institutional features of the African setting-large extended families and imperfect credit and land markets-matter to the equity and efficiency roles played by intergenerational linkages. Using original survey data on Senegal that include an individualized measure of consumption, this paper studies the role played by land inheritance, other bequests and parental background as influences on an adult's economic welfare and economic activities. Although intergenerational linkages are evident, the analysis finds a seemingly high degree of mobility across generations, associated with the shift from farm to non-farm sectors and the greater economic activity of women. Male-dominated bequests of land and housing bring little gain to mean consumption and play little role in explaining inequality, although they have effects on the sector of activity. Inheritance of non-land assets and the education and occupation of parents (especially the mother) and their choices about children's schooling are more important to adult welfare than property inheritance. Significant gender inequality in consumption is evident, although it is almost entirely explicable in terms of factors such as education and (non-land) inheritance. There are a number of other pronounced gender differences, with intergenerational linkages coming through the mother rather than the father
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  • 16
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin On multidimensional indices of poverty
    Kurzfassung: There has been a growing interest in what have come to be termed "multidimensional indices of poverty." Advocates for these new indices correctly point out that command over market goods is not all that matters to peoples' well-being, and that other factors need to be considered when quantifying the extent of poverty and informing policy making for fighting poverty. However, the author argues that there are two poorly understood issues in assessing these indices. First, does one believe that any single index can ever be a sufficient statistic for poverty assessments? Second, when aggregation is called for, should it be done in the space of "attainments," using prices when appropriate, or that of "deprivations," using weights set by the analyst? The paper argues that the goal for future poverty monitoring efforts should be to develop a credible set of multiple indices, spanning the dimensions of poverty most relevant to a specific setting, rather than a single multidimensional index. When weights are needed, they shouldn't be set solely by an analyst measuring poverty. Rather, they should be, as much as possible, consistent with well-informed choices made by poor people
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  • 17
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (13 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin On the Implications of Essential Heterogeneity for Estimating Causal Impacts Using Social Experiments
    Kurzfassung: Randomized control trials are sometimes used to estimate the aggregate benefit from some policy or program. To address the potential bias from selective take-up, the randomization is used as an instrumental variable for treatment status. Does this (popular) method of impact evaluation help reduce the bias when take-up depends on unobserved gains from take up? Such "essential heterogeneity" is known to invalidate the instrumental variable estimator of mean causal impact, though one still obtains another parameter of interest, namely mean impact amongst those treated. However, if essential heterogeneity is the only problem then the naïve (ordinary least squares) estimator also delivers this parameter; there is no gain from using randomization as an instrumental variable. On allowing the heterogeneity to also alter counterfactual outcomes, the instrumental variable estimator may well be more biased for mean impact than the naïve estimator. Examples are given for various stylized programs, including a training program that attenuates the gains from higher latent ability, an insurance program that compensates for losses from unobserved risky behavior and a microcredit scheme that attenuates the gains from access to other sources of credit. Practitioners need to think carefully about the likely behavioral responses to social experiments in each context
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  • 18
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (40 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Knowledgeable Bankers?
    Kurzfassung: Development impact calls for knowledgeable development practitioners. How then do the operational staff of the largest development agency value and use its research? Is there an incentive to learn and does it translate into useful knowledge? A new survey reveals that the bulk of the World Bank's senior staff value the Bank's research for their work, and most come to know it well, although a sizable minority have difficulty accessing research to serve their needs. Another group sees little value to research for their work and does not bother to find out about it. Higher perceived value is reflected in greater knowledge about research, though there are frictions in this process. Staff working on poverty, human development and economic policy tend to value and use research more than staff in the more traditional sectors of Bank lending-agriculture and rural development; the latter sectors account for 45 percent of lending but only 15 percent of staff highly familiar with Bank research. Without stronger incentives for learning and more relevant and accessible research products, it appears likely that this lag in demand for research by the traditional sectors will persist
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  • 19
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Wagstaff, Adam On Measuring Scientific Influence
    Kurzfassung: Bibliometric measures based on citations are widely used in assessing the scientific publication records of authors, institutions and journals. Yet currently favored measures lack a clear conceptual foundation and are known to have counter-intuitive properties. The authors propose a new approach that is grounded on a theoretical "influence function," representing explicit prior beliefs about how citations reflect influence. They provide conditions for robust qualitative comparisons of influence - conditions that can be implemented using readily-available data. An example is provided using the economics publication records of selected universities and the World Bank
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  • 20
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Mashup indices of development
    Kurzfassung: Countries are increasingly being ranked by some new "mashup index of development," defined as a composite index for which existing theory and practice provides little or no guidance to its design. Thus the index has an unusually large number of moving parts, which the producer is essentially free to set. The parsimony of these indices is often appealing - collapsing multiple dimensions into just one, yielding unambiguous country rankings, and possibly reducing concerns about measurement errors in the component series. But the meaning, interpretation and robustness of these indices are often unclear. If they are to be properly understood and used, more attention needs to be given to their conceptual foundations, the tradeoffs they embody, the contextual factors relevant to country performance, and the sensitivity of the implied rankings to changing the data and weights. In short, clearer warning signs are needed for users. But even then, nagging doubts remain about the value-added of mashup indices, and their policy relevance, relative to the "dashboard" alternative of monitoring the components separately. Future progress in devising useful new composite indices of development will require that theory catches up with measurement practice
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  • 21
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (29 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Price Levels and Economic Growth
    Kurzfassung: To the surprise of many observers, the 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) found substantially higher purchasing power parity (PPP) rates, relative to market exchange rates, in most developing countries. For example, China’s price level index - the ratio of its PPP to its exchange rate - doubled between the 1993 and 2005 rounds of the ICP. The paper tries to explain the observed changes in PPPs. Consistently with the Balassa-Samuelson model, evidence is found of a "dynamic Penn effect," whereby more rapidly growing economies experience steeper increases in their price level index. This effect has been even stronger for initially poorer countries. Thus the widely-observed static (cross-sectional) Penn effect has been attenuated over time. On also taking account of exchange rate changes and prior participation in the ICP’s price surveys, 99 percent of the variance in the observed changes in PPPs is explicable. Using a nested test, the World Bank’s longstanding method of extrapolating PPPs between ICP rounds using inflation rates alone is out performed by the model proposed in this paper
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  • 22
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (38 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Poverty Lines Across the World
    Kurzfassung: National poverty lines vary greatly across the world, from under
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  • 23
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Wagstaff, Adam The World Bank's Publication Record
    Kurzfassung: The World Bank has produced a huge volume of books and papers on development - 20,000 publications spanning decades, but growing appreciably since 1990. This paper finds evidence that many of these publications have influenced development thinking, as indicated by the citations found using Google Scholar and in bibliographic data bases. However, the authors also find that a non-negligible share of the Bank's publications have received no citations, suggesting that they have had little scholarly influence, though they may well have had influence on non-academic audiences. Individually-authored journal articles have been the main channel for scholarly influence. The volume of the Bank's research output on development is greater than that of any of the comparator institutions identified, including other international agencies and the top universities in economics. The bibliometric indicators of the quality and influence of the Bank's portfolio of scholarly publications are on a par with, or better than, most of the top universities
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  • 24
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (32 p)
    Ausgabe: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Ravallion, Martin Troubling tradeoffs in the Human Development Index
    Kurzfassung: The 20th Human Development Report has introduced a new version of its famous Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI aggregates country-level attainments in life expectancy, schooling and income per capita. Each year's rankings by the HDI are keenly watched in both rich and poor countries. The main change in the 2010 HDI is that it relaxes its past assumption of perfect substitutability between its three components. However, most users will probably not realize that the new HDI has also greatly reduced its implicit weight on longevity in poor countries, relative to rich ones. A poor country experiencing falling life expectancy due to (say) a collapse in its health-care system could still see its HDI improve with even a small rate of economic growth. By contrast, the new HDI's valuations of the gains from extra schooling seem unreasonably high - many times greater than the economic returns to schooling. These troubling tradeoffs could have been largely avoided using a different aggregation function for the HDI, while still allowing imperfect substitution. While some difficult value judgments are faced in constructing and assessing the HDI, making its assumed tradeoffs more explicit would be a welcome step
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