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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Trinh, Trong-Anh Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review
    Keywords: Chronic Poverty ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Transient Poverty
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Agnolucci, Paolo Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
    Keywords: Carbon Mitigation ; Carbon Tax ; Climate Change Economics ; Emissions Trading ; Fiscal Instrument ; Fossil Fuel Transition ; Fuel Subsidies ; Greenhouse Gas Emission Prices ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Sustainable Development ; Total Carbon Price
    Abstract: While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing-such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms-remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal for carbon emissions and the incentive it creates This paper develops a methodology for calculating a total carbon price applied to carbon emissions in a sector, fuel, or the whole economy. It recognizes that rarely is a single carbon price applied across an economy; many direct carbon pricing instruments target specific sectors or even fuels, much like indirect taxes on fossil fuels; and carbon and fuel taxes can be substituted one for another. Tracking progress on carbon pricing thus requires following both kinds of price interventions, their coverage, and specific exemptions. This inclusive total carbon pricing measure can facilitate progress in discussions on minimum carbon price commitments and inform assessments of the pricing of carbon embodied in traded goods. Calculations across 142 countries from 1991 to 2021 indicate that although direct carbon pricing now covers roughly a quarter of global emissions, the global total carbon price is not that much higher than it was in 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. Indirect carbon pricing still comprises the lion's share of the global total carbon price, and it has stagnated. Taking these policy measures into account reveals that many developing countries-particularly net fuel importers-contribute substantially to global carbon pricing. Tackling fuel subsidy reform and pricing coal and natural gas emissions more fully would have a profound effect on aligning carbon prices across countries and sectors and with their climate costs
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (105 pages)
    Series Statement: Climate Change and Development
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Climate Governance ; Climate Policy ; Decarbonization ; Distributional Effects ; Political Economy ; Public Engagement
    Abstract: Climate change presents a unique challenge in that policy makers need to balance the speed and scale required to achieve global objectives within the time required to ensure political acceptability and social sustainability. Within Reach: Navigating the Political Economy of Decarbonization identifies the key political economy barriers and explores the options to address them through four key recommendations: * Climate governance: strategically adapt the institutional architecture and embed climate objectives into a positive development narrative. Strategic governance institutions that reflect societal goals--such as climate change framework laws, longterm strategies, or just transition frameworks--can alter the political economy, set clear objectives, facilitate coordination across actors, and help monitor progress and hold decision-makers accountable. * Policy sequencing: balance short-term feasibility and long-term ambition. Because the political economy and institutional context are dynamic and can be influenced by policies, policy makers can select their priorities, not only to make policy implementation feasible but also to actively build capacity and change the political economy and institutional context, building momentum toward the long-term objective and transformation. * Policy design: focus on people and manage the distributional effects of climate policies. Climate policies have heterogenous impacts across households, sectors, and locations. Active labor policies, reskilling programs, compensations and transfers, place-based policies, and green industrial policies can be used to protect vulnerable populations, facilitate a just transition, and make policies more acceptable and sustainable. * Policy process: use public engagement and communication to improve design and legitimacy. Civic engagement can improve a policy's design, enhance legitimacy, foster compromise, and help identify unintended consequences early. Effective communication can make reforms more accessible to the public and increase support. This book shows how appropriate governance frameworks, strong institutional capacity, well-designed policies with adequate compensation measures, and early engagement with all stakeholders are essential strategic elements to building consensus and momentum for transformative policies. By deploying these tools, policy makers can navigate the urgency in climate action and its political economy challenges to achieve their long-term climate goals and secure a livable planet
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (31 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane The Macroeconomic Implications of a Transition to Zero Net Emissions: A Modeling Framework
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Mitigation Investment ; Decarbonization ; Fossil Fuel Transformation ; Macroeconomic Modeling ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Net-Zero Emissions Economy ; Social Development ; Technological Change
    Abstract: Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Turkiye's objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Turkiye's economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Wollburg, Philip The Climate Implications of Ending Global Poverty
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Economics ; Co2 Emission Goals ; Environment and Poverty ; Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty and Climate Ambitions
    Abstract: Previous studies have explored potential conflicts between ending poverty and limiting global warming, by focusing on the carbon emissions of the world's poorest. This paper instead focuses on economic growth as the driver of poverty alleviation and estimates the emissions associated with the growth needed to eradicate poverty. With this framing, eradicating poverty requires not only increasing the consumption of poor people, but also the consumption of non-poor people in poor countries. Even in this more pessimistic framing, the global emissions increase associated with eradicating extreme poverty is small, at 2.37 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide in 2050, or 4.9 percent of 2019 global emissions. These additional emissions would not materially affect the global climate change challenge: global emissions would need to be reduced by 2.08 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year, instead of the 2.0 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year needed in the absence of any extreme poverty eradication. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency, and decarbonization of energy can significantly ease this trade-off: assuming the best historical performance in all countries, the additional emissions for poverty eradication are reduced by 90 percent. Therefore, the need to eradicate extreme poverty cannot be used as a justification for reducing the world's climate ambitions. When trade-offs exist, the eradication of extreme poverty can be prioritized with negligible emissions implications. The estimated emissions of eradicating poverty are 15.3 percent of 2019 emissions with the lower-middle-income poverty line at USD 3.65 per day and or 45.7 percent of 2019 emissions with the USD 6.85 upper-middle-income poverty line. The challenge to align the world's development and climate objectives is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing middle-income standards of living in a sustainable manner
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (28 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Liotta, Charlotte Efficiency and Equity in Urban Flood Management Policies: A Systematic Urban Economics Exploration
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Change Impacts ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Disaster Risk Management ; Environment ; Flood Control ; Hazard Risk Management ; Inequality ; Land Use Zoning ; Municipal and Civil Engineering ; Risk-Based Insurance ; Subsidized Insurance ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Urban Floods ; Urban Housing and Land Settlements ; Urban Poverty ; Welfare
    Abstract: Flood exposure is likely to increase in the future as a direct consequence of more frequent and more intense flooding and the growth of populations and economic assets in flood-prone areas. Low-income households, which are more likely to be located in high-risk zones, will be particularly affected. This paper assesses the welfare and equity impacts of three flood management policies-risk-based insurance, zoning, and subsidized insurance-using an urban economics framework with two income groups and three potential flood locations. The paper shows that in a first-best setting, risk-based insurance maximizes social welfare. However, depending on flood characteristics, implementing a zoning policy or subsidized insurance is close to optimal and can be more feasible. Subsidizing insurance reduces upward pressure on housing rents but increases flood damage, and is recommended for rare floods occurring in a large part of a city. Zoning policies have the opposite effect, avoiding damage but increasing housing rents, and are recommended for frequent floods in small areas. The social welfare impact of choosing the wrong flood management policy depends on the location of floods relative to employment centers, with flooding close to employment centers being particularly harmful. Implementing flood management policies redistributes flood costs between high- and low-income households through land markets, irrespective of who is directly affected. As such, they are progressive in terms of equity, compared to a laissez-faire scenario with myopic anticipations, in the more common scenario where poorer populations are more exposed to urban floods. But their impacts on inequality depend on flood locations and urban configuration. For instance, in a city where floods are centrally located and low-income households live in the city center, subsidized insurance would mitigate a surge in inequality, whereas a zoning policy could substantially increase inequalities
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Rentschler, Jun Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones: Global Evidence since 1985
    Keywords: Adaptation ; Adaptation to Climate Change ; Climate Change ; Climate Change Exposure ; Climate Change Impacts ; Climate Change Policy and Regulation ; Climate Risk ; Climatic Hazard ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Environment ; Flood Risk ; Hazardous Flood Zones ; High-Risk Flood Zones ; Human Settlements ; Public Sector Development ; Risky Growth ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Urban Flood Zone ; Urban Housing and Land Settlements ; Urbanization
    Abstract: As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. This study provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28 million square kilometers. In the same period, settlements exposed to the highest flood hazard level increased by 122 percent. In many regions, risky growth is outpacing safe growth, particularly in East Asia, where high-risk settlements have expanded 60 percent faster than safe ones. Developing countries are driving the recent growth of flood exposure: 36,500 square kilometers of settlements were built in the world's highest-risk zones since 1985-82 percent of which are in low- and middle-income countries. In comparison, recent growth in high-income countries has been relatively slow and safe. These results document a divergence in countries' exposure to flood hazards. Rather than adapting their exposure to climatic hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (37 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Hallegatte, Stephane Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Disasters: A Modeling Proposal and Application to Floods and Earthquakes in Turkey
    Keywords: Damage To Infrastructure ; Environment ; Impact Of Climate ; Inflation ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Marginal Productivity Of Capital ; Monetary Policy ; Natural Disaster ; Trade and Investment
    Abstract: Turkey is vulnerable to natural disasters that can generate substantial damages to public and private sector infrastructure capital. Earthquakes and floods are the most frequent hazards today, and flood risks are expected to increase with climate change. To ensure stability and growth and minimize the welfare impact of these disasters, these shocks need to be managed and accounted for in macro-fiscal and monetary policy. To support this process, the World Bank Macrostructural Model is adapted to assess the macroeconomic effects of natural (geophysical or climate-related) disasters. The macroeconomic model is extended on several fronts: (1) a distinction is made between infrastructure and non-infrastructure capital, with complementary or substitutability between the two categories; (2) the production function is adjusted to account for short-term complementarity across capital assets; (3) the reconstruction process is modeled in a way that accounts for post-disaster constraints, with distinct processes for the reconstruction of public and private assets. The results show that destroyed infrastructure capital makes the remaining non-infrastructure capital less productive, which means that disasters reduce the total stock of capital, but also its productivity. The welfare impact of a disaster-proxied by the discounted consumption loss-is found to increase non-linearly with direct asset losses. Macroeconomic responses reduce the welfare impact of minor disasters but magnify it when direct asset losses exceed the economy's absorption capacity. The welfare impact also depends on the pre-existing economic situation, the ability of the economy to reallocate resources toward reconstruction, and the response of the monetary policy. Appropriate macro-fiscal and monetary policies offer cost-effective opportunities to mitigate the welfare impact of major disasters
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (61 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Zachariadis, Theodoros Building Back Better in Practice: A Science-Policy Framework for a Green Economic Recovery after COVID-19
    Abstract: As humanity's current production and consumption patterns exceed planetary boundaries, many opinion leaders have stressed the need to adopt green economic stimulus policies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This paper provides an integrated framework to design an economic recovery strategy aligned with sustainability objectives through a multi-criterion, multi-stakeholder lens. The aim is to enable decisions by policy makers with the aid of transparent workflows that include expert evidence that is based on quantitative open-source modeling, and qualitative input by diverse social actors in a participatory approach. The paper employs an energy systems model and an economic input-output model to provide quantitative evidence and design a multi-criteria decision process that engages stakeholders from government, enterprises, and civil society. As a case study, the paper studies 13 green recovery measures that are relevant for Cyprus and assesses their appropriateness for criteria related to environmental sustainability, socioeconomic and job impact, and climate resilience. The results highlight trade-offs between immediate and long-run effects, between economic and environmental objectives, and between expert evidence and societal priorities. Importantly, the paper finds that a "return-to-normal" economic stimulus is not only environmentally unsustainable, but also economically inferior to most green recovery schemes
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Avner, Paolo Flood Protection and Land Value Creation: Not All Resilience Investments are Created Equal
    Keywords: Flood Control ; Hazard Risk Management ; Housing Regulation ; Land Use ; Residential Investment ; Transport Planning ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Housing ; Water Resources
    Abstract: This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investments in a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to the literature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments. Using a simple urban economics framework that represents land and housing markets, it finds that not all flood mitigation interventions display the same potential for land value creation: where land is more valuable (city centers for example), the benefits of resilience are higher. The paper also provides ranges for land value creation potential from the flood mitigation works in Buenos Aires under various model specifications. Although the estimates vary largely depending on model parameters and specifications, in many cases the land value creation would be sufficient to justify the investments. This result is robust even in the closed city configuration with conservative flood damage estimates, providing that the parameters remain reasonably close to the values obtained from the calibration. Finally, acknowledging that fully calibrating and running an urban simulation model is data greedy and time intensive-even a simple model as proposed here-this research also proposes reduced form expressions that can provide approximations for land value creation from flood mitigation investments and can be used in operational contexts
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Environmental Study
    Abstract: To maximize development gains, World Bank projects must consider climate change and disaster risks in their design and appraisal. Buildings could be exposed to heat waves, roads might be vulnerable to floods, and agricultural practices may be subject to drought and pests. Although projects can be simultaneously vulnerable to several such risks, in most cases, it is possible to design and implement projects that are resilient to future climate change and natural risks. Doing so, however, requires these risks to be considered at each step of the project cycle. To select the best projects and ensure they deliver as expected, it is important to ensure that all project appraisal and assessment processes including economic analyses properly consider all risks. This guidance note proposes a simple methodology for doing this by adding a stress test for climate change and natural disasters to the economic analysis of a project
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis is causing massive suffering across the globe. In addition to the human consequences of the disease, containment measures to slow down and control the virus have deprived people of their livelihood and put many firms in a difficult financial situation. As a result, governments are planning massive stimulus packages to accelerate recovery once the health emergency is under control. To help governments think through investments for a green recovery, we proposed a sustainability checklist to screen potential projects and policies. To test how the sustainability checklist might work for a specific country, the checklist was applied to the Fiji Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA). The objective is to demonstrate how the checklist can be used as a screening, scoring, and prioritization tool to identify projects that create synergies between short-term needs and long-term objectives
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