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  • International Monetary Fund  (76)
  • Christiaensen, Luc  (46)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (122)
  • Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
  • London : Routledge
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  • 1
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (224 pages)
    Serie: Africa Development Forum
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Employment Challenges ; Female Migrants ; Government ; Migration ; Urban Development ; Urban Markets
    Kurzfassung: Research on migration and urban development in Africa has primarily focused on larger cities and rural-to-urban migration. However, 97 percent of Africa's urban centers have fewer than 300,000 inhabitants, and a sizable share of urban migrants come from other urban areas. A more holistic and dynamic perspective, incorporating migration flows along the full urban hierarchy, as well as urban-urban migrants, is needed to better understand and leverage migration for urban development. Migrants, Markets, and Mayors: Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa's Secondary Cities draws on demographic data, research literature, key informant interviews, and empirical research to better understand how migrants in Africa's secondary cities fare in urban labor markets, how they affect aggregate urban productivity, and how mayors can leverage migrants' potential to the benefit of all. It explores these questions across countries and four urban case settings: Jijiga in Ethiopia, Jinja in Uganda, and Jendouba and Kairouan in Tunisia. Although mayors in secondary cities often see migrants as a burden to their cities' labor markets and a threat to development, the report finds that migrants contribute increasingly less to urban population growth and that they usually strengthen the resident labor force. The report also finds that labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for nonmigrants. Africa's secondary cities are well placed to leverage migration, but evidence-based policies are needed to manage the growth and development of land and labor markets. The report reviews policy options that mayors can take to strengthen the financial, technical, and planning capacity of secondary cities and better leverage migration to benefit migrants and nonmigrants alike. "Much of the literature on migration to cities examines migration in a nonspatial fashion or focuses on rural-urban migration to the largest, most visible cities. This volume fills a gap by focusing on migration to secondary cities, coming up with a compelling set of facts. Overall, the volume is very well done and sets a benchmark for future research." J. Vernon Henderson, School Professor of Economic Geography, London School of Economics
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  • 2
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other Social Protection Study
    Schlagwort(e): Agri-Food Jobs ; Agricultural Pollution ; Agriculture Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Food and Beverage Industry ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Industry ; Food Industry Pollution ; Green Issues ; Green Transition Jobs ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Industry ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Youth Employment
    Kurzfassung: The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R and D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R and D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture's current USD 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Aihounton, Ghislain Does Agricultural Intensification Pay?
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Farm Performance ; Food Security ; Intensification ; Rice Farmers ; Rural Transformaiton ; Rural Transformation ; Smallholder Labor Productivity ; Specialization
    Kurzfassung: Modern inputs and mechanization are promoted across Africa to raise smallholder labor productivity and broker the structural transformation. Yet, adoption has remained low and the implications for returns to labor and labor allocation remain poorly understood. This paper explores the effects of different intensification packages on farm performance, market orientation, and food security using data from lowland rice farmers in Cote d'Ivoire. Employing a multinomial treatment effect model, the findings reveal that intensification increases land and labor productivity, especially when agro-chemicals and mechanized land preparation are combined. Returns to labor double to triple, inducing specialization and greater market orientation as well as greater food security, while productively releasing agricultural labor for other activities. Labor in agriculture becomes more waged. The gender balance remains the same. Child labor input does not decrease. The findings call for greater attention to labor productivity and confirm that agricultural intensification can pay and enhance rural transformation
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  • 4
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Climate Change Economics ; Climate Change Impacts ; Employment and Unemployment ; Environment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Aspects of Climate Change ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Labor
    Kurzfassung: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Lower Silesia. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, while the number of people directly and indirectly affected by coal mine closures in Lower Silesia (~5,500) is relatively small compared to the total regional labor force (lessthan1%), affected workers are heavily concentrated geographically. Second, workers in heavily affected municipalities have lower foundational (but better technical) skills than their regional and national counterparts, and already operate in lagging local economies. Third, while eager to work, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that they are averse to both, commuting and relocating for work, even though less so than in Silesia and Wielkopolska, the two other regions. Together this suggests that there are important welfare and political economic benefits to adequate job creation locally. The paper further advances a data-driven viable-job-matching tool specifically tailored to the Polish labor market and illustrates how it could be used to assess the potential of local labor markets and future investments to absorb the coal-affected workers accounting for their skills profile, re/upskilling needs and job attribute preferences
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  • 5
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Coal ; Coal and Lignite ; Employment and Unemployment ; Energy ; Energy Sector ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Kurzfassung: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Wielkopolska, which is most advanced in the transition out of coal. Finding viable job transitions is of enormous importance. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, even though limited from a regional perspective (4,000 workers), affected jobs are highly concentrated in a few already lagging and depopulating municipalities. Second, while coal-related workers are similarly skilled as other workers in Wielkopolska, non-coal related workers in the at-risk municipalities are substantially less skilled, exposing them to potential displacement effects. Finally, while ready to work and to be re-skilled, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that all workers are averse both to commuting and relocating for work, even more so than in Silesia and Lower Silesia. Complementary social protection and employment support will be needed, and the paper suggests some policy options based on international experience. The paper concludes by illustrating how a big-data driven job-matching tool, calibrated on the Polish labor market, could be used to assist caseworkers in identifying "viable-job-transition-pathways" for affected workers as well as to help policymakers identify reskilling needs and attract investments
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Employment and Unemployment ; Food Security ; Labor Markets ; Rural Development ; Rural Labor Markets ; Social Protections and Labor
    Kurzfassung: Africa's rural population continues to expand rapidly and labor productivity in agriculture and many rural off farm activities remains low. This paper uses the lens of a dual economy and the associated patterns of agricultural, rural, and structural transformation to review the evolution of Africa's rural employment and its inclusiveness. Many African countries still find themselves in an early stage of the agricultural and rural transformation. Given smaller sectoral productivity gaps than commonly assumed, greater size effects and larger spillovers, investment in agriculture and the rural off-farm economy remains warranted to broker the transition to more and more productive rural employment. The key policy questions thus become how best to invest in the agri-food system (on and increasingly also off the farm) and how best to generate demand for nonagricultural goods and services which rural households can competitively produce. Informing these choices continues to present a major research agenda, with digitization, the imperative of greening and intra-African liberalization raising many unarticulated and undocumented opportunities and challenges
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  • 7
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Coal and Lignite ; Employment and Unemployment ; Energy ; Environment ; Green Issues ; Labor Market ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Kurzfassung: Part of a three-region set of papers analyzing coal-related labor market challenges in Poland, this paper focuses on Silesia. The findings call for a more territorial-oriented approach to brokering the coal transition, rather than a sectoral one. First, the number of jobs directly linked to coal-mining in Silesia is substantial, with 72,000 employees in the mining conglomerates, and an additional 17,000 providing goods and services to the mines. Second, coal-related employment is heavily concentrated geographically: as much as 40 percent of the population of Bierunsko-Iedzinski is employed directly and indirectly in the mining sector, and 80 percent of the mining conglomerates' contract value goes to subcontractors within a 20km radius of the mines. Third, the coal sector is highly integrated among a few large firms: 28 percent of the indirect workforce is employed by 10 subcontractors. Fourth, workers in the mining conglomerates have lower foundational (but better technical) skills than their regional and national counterparts, especially those with lower education. Finally, while eager to work, discrete choice experiments about their job attribute preferences show that they are averse to both, commuting and relocating for work, even though less so than in Wielkopolska, yet more so that in Lower Silesia, the two other regions. Together this suggests that there are important welfare and political economic benefits to adequate job creation locally. The paper further advances a data-driven viable-job-matching tool specifically tailored to the Polish labor market and illustrates how it could be used to assess the potential of local labor markets and future investments to absorb the coal-affected workers accounting for their skills profile, re/upskilling needs, and job attribute preferences
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Schneider, Kate Assessing the Affordability of Nutrient-Adequate Diets
    Schlagwort(e): Agriculture ; Diet Cost ; Food Affordability ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Price ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Meal Sharing ; Nutrient Adequacy ; Nutrition ; Poverty and Health ; Poverty Reduction
    Kurzfassung: The affordability of nutritious diets is increasingly used as a metric of how well a food system provides access to nutritious diets for all. Recent work on least-cost diets has focused on individuals, while most food and anti-poverty programs and policies target the household level. Members within households have differing nutritional needs, presenting the methodological question: how should the cost of nutritious diets be estimated at the household level This study develops bounds on the cost, affordability, and seasonal variation of least-cost diets for whole households, illustrated with the example of Malawi. When intrahousehold sharing is not possible to observe, the bounded approach provides insights into the range of the cost and affordability, and the extent to which the cost may vary seasonally. The results reveal that when meals are shared, ignoring demographic diversity within households greatly underestimates the affordability of adequate diets
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  • 9
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Schlagwort(e): Employment and Unemployment ; Labor Markets ; Labor Mobility ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development ; Urban Governance and Management ; Urban Labor Market ; Urbanization
    Kurzfassung: In our rapidly urbanizing world, mayors often see migrants as a burden to their city's labor market and a threat to its development. Drawing on national household surveys and four secondary city case studies in Africa, this study finds that migrants, being younger, better educated and/or complementary to the resident labor force, usually strengthen the urban labor force. In secondary cities, labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for residents. Migrants also contribute increasingly less to urban population growth. Secondary cities thus appear well placed to leverage migration. This requires good urban management that develops land and labor markets, prepares for growth and benefits everyone, migrants as well as residents. Migrant specific interventions are warranted when divisions between natives and migrants are deep. Strengthening the financial, technical, and planning capacity of towns to better integrate migrants is part and parcel of the good job's agenda
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  • 10
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Cattaneo, Andrea Economic and Social Development along the Urban-Rural Continuum: New Opportunities to Inform Policy
    Schlagwort(e): Access To Education ; Access To Health Services ; Communities and Human Settlements ; National Urban Development Policies and Strategies ; Peri-Urban ; Peri-Urban Communities ; Poverty Analysis ; Rural Urban Linkages ; Rural-Urban Linkage ; Territorial Development ; Urban Development ; Urban Economic Development
    Kurzfassung: The economic and social development of nations relies on their population having physical access to services and employment opportunities. For the vast majority of the 3.4 billion people living in rural locations, this largely depends on their access to urban centers of different sizes. Similarly, urban centers depend on their rural hinterlands. Building on the literature on functional areas/territories and the rural-urban continuum as well as insights from central place theory, this review paper advances the notion of catchment areas differentiated along an urban-to-rural continuum to capture these urban-rural interconnections. It further shows how a new, publicly available data set operationalizing this concept can shed new light on policy making across a series of development fields, including institutions and governance, urbanization and food systems, welfare and poverty, and access to health and education services. Together the insights support a more geographically nuanced perspective on development
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  • 11
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Schlagwort(e): Access To Finance ; Capital Markets and Capital Flows ; E-Finance and E-Security ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Regulation and Supervision ; Financial Stability ; Financial Structures ; Macroprudential Policy ; Risk Assessment
    Kurzfassung: A joint IMF and World Bank team conducted virtual missions to Georgia during January-February 2021 and May-June 2021, to update the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted in 2014. This report summarizes the main findings of the mission, identifies key financial sector vulnerabilities and developmental issues, and provides policy recommendations
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  • 12
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: This report analyzes the consequences for the labor force of Western Macedonia's (Greece) decarbonization as part of Europe's new Green Deal. Already, the region records the highest unemployment rate of the country (27 percent in 2018). A survey of contractors suggests that about 16,000 jobs could potentially be affected by the closure of the mines (about 4,500 directly in coal and power production and another 11,000-11,500 indirectly supplying goods and services). It mainly concerns older and less educated, but medium-skilled workers. Many do not expect much of a future in Western Macedonia, with most of the better-skilled seeing themselves move to other regions. But much will also depend on the coal transition path chosen, including the timing and labor intensity of the power plant decommissioning and land reclamation plans, as well as those of the new alternative activities promoted. Timely consultations with the workers affected will also be critical
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  • 13
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture's role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system (AFS) also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions both have shaped and have been shaped by these dynamics. Today, a digital revolution is taking hold, affecting agricultural labor and skill demands. In this process, societies evolve from having a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor, typically met largely by foreign agricultural wage workers. Yet, anti-immigration sentiments are flying high in migrant-destination countries, and robots in the fields and packing plants offer an alternative. Agricultural trade may be similarly challenged. In the world's poorest countries, particularly in Africa, labor productivity in agriculture remains at historically low levels. So, what can the role of agriculture as a source of employment be in the future? This viewpoint elaborates on these trends and reviews a number of policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes and ramp up in agricultural education and extension
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  • 14
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Policy Notes
    Kurzfassung: This note provides a set of high-level recommendations that can guide national regulatory and supervisory responses to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and offers an overview of measures taken across jurisdictions to date. The banking sector plays a critical role in mitigating the unprecedented macroeconomic and financial shock caused by the pandemic. Timely, targeted and well-designed regulatory and supervisory actions are essential to maintain the provision of critical financial services, particularly to households and firms that are affected most, while mitigating financial risks, maintaining balance sheet transparency, and preserving longer-term financial policy credibility. In this context, authorities should employ the embedded flexibility of regulatory, supervisory, and accounting frameworks, and encourage judicious loan restructuring while continuing to uphold minimum prudential standards. Standard-setting bodies have issued guidance to support national authorities in their efforts to provide effective, sound, and well-coordinated policy measures
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  • 15
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: The BSP's regulatory framework is broadly effective for the size and complexity of the Philippine banking system, but legislative gaps continue to hinder effective supervision of banks. The BSP has a well-resourced, experienced and highly committed staffing complement, but there is an ongoing need to develop and maintain adequate expertise in certain complex areas (e.g. risk modelling). Since the FSAP in 2002, and the assessment update in 2010, the BSP has made significant progress in enhancing the regulatory framework in a number of areas. But significant weaknesses in the legislative framework, arising notably from the bank secrecy laws and the lack of power for the BSP to supervise the parent companies and their affiliates of banking groups, present a material hindrance to effective supervision
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  • 16
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: With an estimated 724 million extreme poor people living in developing countries, and the world's demographics bifurcating into an older north and a younger south, there are substantial economic incentives and benefits for people to migrate. There are also important market and regulatory failures that constrain mobility and reduce the net benefits of migration. This paper reviews the recent literature and proposes a conceptual framework to better integrate and coordinate policies for addressing the different market and regulatory failures. The paper advances five types of interventions in need of particular attention in terms of design, implementation and evaluation; namely, 1) active labor market programs that serve local, regional and foreign markets; 2) remittances and investment subsidies to promote job creation and labor productivity growth; 3) social insurance programs that cover all jobs and facilitate labor mobility; 4) labor taxes to internalize the social costs of migration in receiving regions; and 5) more flexible, private sector driven schemes to regulate the flow of migrants and minimize irregular migration
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  • 17
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: A thriving region until the early 1990s, Slavonia, the eastern region of Croatia, has been confronted with stagnation and decline, ageing and outmigration as well as impoverishment ever since. This followed Croatia's homeland war of 1991-1995, with Slavonia one of the frontlines, economic restructuring of its state-led economy during the 1990s and 2000s and the global economic crisis of the late 2000s. More recently, after Croatia's EU accession in 2013 and coinciding with the economic upswing since 2014 in Croatia and the EU, Slavonia's labor market has started to tighten, with registered vacancies now exceeding the number of job seekers for highly educated as well as some unskilled and semi-skilled occupations. However, inactivity and unemployment remain high. In 2017, the share of the working-age population in work was only 51 percent, 10 percentage points below the rest of Croatia (61 percent) and 17 percentage points below the 2017 EU28 average. A legacy of war, limited availability of care services, and especially lower education levels explain an important part of Slavonia's much higher inactivity and unemployment. On the demand side, labor productivity in Slavonia's firms is systematically lower than in the rest of the country (except in agriculture and forestry), also consistent with Slavonia's sizeablewage gap. This, together with general disenchantment of the Slavonian population with the economicand business environment, has prompted outmigration. At the same time, a small number of firms alsooutperform their sectoral competitors elsewhere in Croatia, signaling Slavonia's potential.Looking ahead, private sector job creation remains a top priority, especially focusing on Slavonia's lower educated, who make up the bulk of the unemployed and inactive. This especially requires a reduction in the regulatory burden and an increase in Slavonian firms' competitiveness, which will also help to close the substantial wage gap with the rest of Croatia. Given the large share of its population in agriculture and forestry-related activities (close to 30 percent), Program Slavonia's current focus on agriculture and forestry is clearly warranted. With Slavonia's longstanding history and labor force experience in manufacturing and the rising number of vacancies in this sector, so is attention to manufacturing
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  • 18
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Benin remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. The rating is unchanged from the previous November 2018 DSA. All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline, but the ratio of the present value (PV) of external debt to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports.1 With regard to total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (external plus domestic), the overall risk of debt distress remains also moderate. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is below its prudent benchmark in the baseline scenario; however, the PV of public debt-to-GDP rises very slightly above its benchmark from 2024 until the end of the projection period under the real GDP shock scenario. Other factors motivating the overall rating include: the past evolution of domestic debt, the relatively high debt service burden, as well as the existence of contingent liabilities. Medium-term fiscal consolidation, sound public investment management, and enhanced debt management capacity are needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities
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  • 19
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026
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  • 20
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: An updated joint assessment of Rwanda's debt sustainability suggests continued low risk of external debt distress. External debt burden indicators remain below risk thresholds, except for a short and temporary breach of debt service indicators in 2023, when the Eurobond issued in 2013 matures. The main risk to debt sustainability--and macroeconomic stability--remains external shocks. Balancing Rwanda's still-strong public investment needs with maintaining low risks of debt distress, the government is focused on carefully choosing the highest return projects, financed under the most favorable terms. These principles are laid out in Rwanda's Medium-Term Debt Strategy, as are options for help mitigating potential risks. More broadly, the government is focused on creating a larger and more diversified export base while encouraging more private investment, to help secure high and resilient growth over the long term. Forthcoming results of fiscal risk analysis will help identify if there could be additional contingent liabilities that should be included in the next DSA
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  • 21
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The updated DSA suggests that the external risk of debt distress for Vanuatu remains moderate with limited space to absorb shocks. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario, incorporating the average long-term effects of natural disasters on growth and the fiscal and current account balances. A tailored natural disaster shock, reflecting Vanuatu's vulnerability to disasters, would cause the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio to breach the threshold from 2024 onwards. The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate. Although the PV of the public-debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55 percent benchmark under the baseline scenario, the public-debt-to-GDP ratio would breach the authorities' debt ceiling of 60 percent by 2025. Moreover, a tailored natural disaster shock would lead to a significant deterioration in debt sustainability, breaching the benchmark. The breach of the authorities' debt ceiling and of the benchmark indicates the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers and enhancing resilience against shocks, including from natural disasters. This requires both stronger revenue mobilization measures, including an introduction of the proposed income taxes, and expenditure rationalization in the medium term. When contracting new public infrastructure projects, the authorities are encouraged to seek grants or concessional loans as much as possible to contain its debt burden
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  • 22
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates that Honduras stands at low risk of debt distress both for public external debt and overall debt, which represents an upgrade from the 2018 DSA, where risk of debt distress was assessed as moderate. The DSA was undertaken under the revised debt-sustainability framework for low income countries (LIC DSF), whereby Honduras's debt carrying capacity was upgraded from medium to strong. Changes in the debt-sustainability framework have contributed to the risk of debt distress improvement. A proven record of compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and solid macroeconomic conditions also contributed to rate Honduras' risk of debt distress as low. Going forward, adherence to the FRL and institutional reforms to boost inclusive growth and increase the economy's potential are critical to maintain debt sustainability
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  • 23
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Mali remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the previous analysis and consistent with the May 2018 Staff Report (IMF Country Report/18/141). All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline. However, the ratio of the external debt service to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports under a customized scenario that incorporates 2 percentage points of GDP larger fiscal deficits over 2019 to 2023 than the baseline.1 The baseline scenario assumes improved fiscal policies and achievement of the WAEMU fiscal deficit convergence criteria by 2019. As illustrated in the customized scenario, continued shortfall in domestic revenue mobilization and a deterioration in security conditions will result in a weakened fiscal position and increase the likelihood of debt distress. Mali's main challenge continues to be ensuring macroeconomic stability while protecting social and investment spending and providing for growing security spending and large development needs. To maintain debt at moderate risk rating, it is essential that the authorities continue their efforts to mobilize domestic revenue and implement reforms. Debt management capacity should be strengthened while deepening structural reforms to diversify the exports base
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  • 24
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Senegal has expanded its debt perimeter to include para-public entities and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and remains at low risk of debt distress despite short-term breaches of two external debt indicators under the most extreme scenarios. The low risk of debt distress is predicated on: (i) ongoing debt liability management, guarantees to address currency risk, access to liquid financial assets and a sound track record of market access; and (ii) adherence to the planned fiscal consolidation path, an acceleration of reforms, and a prudent borrowing strategy. Looking ahead, it will be important to contain fiscal pressures from Treasury operations and address fiscal risks from the broader public sector, including the energy sector
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  • 25
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA), Uzbekistan has a low risk of debt distress, with debt burden indicators below relevant thresholds in the baseline and all stress scenarios. Over the medium term, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase moderately, while the total external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline somewhat. In addition, large foreign exchange reserve buffers mitigate potential distress concerns. The debt sustainability analysis suggests that the most significant risks could result from worse-than-expected external flows (mostly lower remittances) and significantly lower exports. The government should carefully manage external borrowing to maintain Uzbekistan's strong external position
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  • 26
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Cabo Verde's risk of external and overall debt distress is rated "high" as in the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA). The present value (PV) of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold in 2019-2022 under the baseline and protractedly under stress test scenarios. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to recede below its threshold from 2026 under the baseline and breaches its prescribed limit under stress test scenarios. The debt sustainability assessment is predicated on sustained fiscal consolidation and successful restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Prudent borrowing policies and a strengthened debt management strategy are critical to containing debt accumulation. In view of Cabo Verde's vulnerability to exogenous shocks, growth-enhancing structural reforms remain critical to bringing public debt to sustainable levels
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  • 27
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), unchanged from the 2018 DSA. Solvency indicators (the present values of the external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP and debt-to-exports ratios) remain below their relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario. However, liquidity indicators (debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue ratios) breach their thresholds in the baseline scenario. Further considerations support the high-risk assessment: the debt indicators are sensitive to standard stress tests; macroeconomic projections are highly uncertain in a volatile security environment; and sizeable contingent liabilities, notably related to the large stock of unaudited potential domestic arrears and the limited financial information available on state-owned enterprises, could materialize. C.A.R.'s debt sustainability is also sensitive to a deterioration of the financing mix. A tailored scenario in which grant financing (of 2 percent of GDP) is replaced by concessional external debt-financing from 2021 onwards would worsen debt sustainability considerably. This shows that the government's investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases
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  • 28
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) remains at high risk of debt distress under the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). Unless the compact agreement with the United States or parts of it are renewed, the FSM will face a fiscal cliff when the U.S. Compact grants amounting to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) are expected to expire in FY2023. Under the baseline scenario without fiscal adjustments, the fiscal cliff would put debt on an upward trajectory starting in FY2024, with the external debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 30 percent in FY2029 and 57 percent in FY2039, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 43 percent in FY2029 and 67 percent in FY2039. As a result, the DSF thresholds on the present value of external debt-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to be breached within a 20-year horizon. While mechanical application of the DSF based on a 10-year forecast horizon would imply a moderate risk rating, the envisaged breach of the thresholds within a 20-year forecast horizon would warrant an assessment of high risk of external and overall debt distress. Lowering the risk of debt distress would require a fiscal adjustment and steadfast structural reforms to promote private sector growth. The FSM's vulnerability to climate change and weather-related natural disasters constitutes a major risk and calls for strategies to strengthen climate change resilience
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  • 29
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Madagascar is assessed at low risk of external debt distress. This marks a change from moderate risk in the June 2018 DSA, despite a broader definition of external debt, and reflects an upgrade in Madagascar's debt carrying capacity rather than a change in the debt path. Under the baseline, external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is well below applicable thresholds. Stress tests do not breach the threshold applicable to countries with medium debt-carrying capacity. Total (external plus domestic) PPG debt is below the benchmark under the baseline, but growth shocks drive the present value of the ratio of debt to GDP above the benchmark. Shocks could also introduce liquidity problems, as the debt-service to revenue ratio could exceed 100 percent over the long term. The overall rating, of moderate debt distress, remains consistent with the 2018 DSA. These assessments continue to be supportive of Madagascar's current plans to scale up its borrowing to meet its investment needs, though other factors are also critical
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  • 30
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Lao P.D.R.'s risks of external and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as high. Under the revised low-income country debt sustainability framework (LIC DSF), its debt carrying capacity has deteriorated and most external and total public debt indicators breach their respective indicative thresholds and benchmarks under the baseline scenarios. External debt indicators are most vulnerable to shocks to exports and depreciation of the currency. Public and external debt indicators are most sensitive to the contingent liabilities shock, while recent natural disasters underscore the need for strengthening buffers. The low level of reserves adds to these vulnerabilities. Factors, such as the large share of electricity export earnings under long-term intergovernmental power purchase agreements, and a strong and growing electricity exports market help mitigate risks, keeping the debt outlook sustainable. Market access is being maintained, around 65 percent of external debt is concessional, and the stock of expenditure arrears is declining. Rebuilding fiscal space, adopting clear guidelines for sovereign debt issuance and guarantees, assessing risks from contingent liabilities, and improving debt management are immediate priorities. Assessing and targeting infrastructure projects with high growth and social returns and financing these with concessional financing would benefit debt sustainability. Strengthening the business environment and governance, would improve the investment outlook, help diversify and make growth more inclusive. Increasing the export base, continuing to maximize the proportion of concessional loans and improving primary deficits would help to keep the debt burden contained
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  • 31
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Nepal's risk of external debt distress remains low. Under the revised IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework for Low Income Countries (LIC-DSF), all debt and debt service ratios are projected to remain below relevant indicative threshold values. Following a prolonged decline, to 25 percent of GDP in mid-2015, the sum of external and domestic public debt rose to 30 percent of GDP in mid-2018. A further rise in total public debt is projected, to about 35 percent of GDP in the medium term and about 48 percent of GDP in the long term, owing to continuing fiscal and current account deficits, as the authorities implement fiscal federalism and aim to put the economy on a higher growth path. Stress tests suggest that debt burden indicators are vulnerable to growth/exports shocks and natural disasters. This underscores the importance of implementing sound macro-economic policies. Efforts to improve the business climate and competitiveness through high-quality public investment and structural reforms would support growth and expand foreign exchange income streams
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  • 32
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: This report presents the first official debt sustainability analysis undertaken for Somalia. Based on both external and public debt indicators, Somalia is in debt distress. Total public debt is very high, at dollar 4.8 billion, or 101 percent of GDP at end-2018-nearly all of which is external (100 percent of GDP). The finding that Somalia is in debt distress reflects the high external arrears on debt relative to GDP, which now represent 96 percent of the debt stock. While Somalia has no capacity to access new financing, its debt burden will continue to increase as late interest on arrears continues to accumulate. Under broadly steady state assumptions, Somalia's total public debt is expected to increase to around 128 percent of GDP by 2039. Key risks that affect the outlook include external financing, security, and climate, further highlighting the unsustainability of Somalia's current debt burden. Consequently, in the absence of debt relief, Somalia will remain in debt distress
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  • 33
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Chad's risks of external and overall debt distress are high but have nonetheless declined in the past year. All but one external debt sustainability indicators are below their respective thresholds from 2019 onwards. The debt-to-revenue ratio moderately breaches its threshold under the baseline scenario. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues. Following the restructuring in 2018, the new Glencore debt contract has helped contain the impact of low oil prices on debt sustainability, as it allows for lower debt service when oil prices are lower
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  • 34
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Based on an assessment of external public debt indicators and given the continued buildup of external arrears, the Republic of Congo is classified as "in debt distress". Moreover, despite the recent restructuring agreement with China, public debt remains unsustainable with the net present value of external debt in percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the external debt service-to-revenue ratios projected to remain above their indicative thresholds in the medium ter
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  • 35
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s debt-carrying capacity was assessed as weak. DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. The debt coverage has been improved since the last DSA, especially on domestic debt. The external nominal debt ratios are lower than at the time of the 2015 debt sustainability analysis (DSA), however the country shows vulnerability in debt repayment capacity, even under the baseline, due to weak revenue mobilization. Most external debt thresholds are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country's vulnerability to external shocks. Given limited buffers, prudent borrowing policies are essential by prioritizing concessional loans and strengthening debt management policies
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  • 36
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to accommodate shocks. The country's debt carrying capacity remains medium, but the rating has declined from 3.1 to 2.77. The authorities have pursued non-concessional loans, but none has been disbursed yet. The government has instead borrowed U.S. dollars from the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) to close the financing gap in FY2018. Such new borrowing, as well as the legacy U.S. dollar debt from the civil war time, are both incorporated in the new DSA. The State-owned Enterprises (SOE) guaranteed debt is also incorporated. Liberia will edge closer to high risk of debt distress with a small change in the terms of both domestic and external debt or a failure to adjust primary expenditure to the available revenue envelope over the medium-term
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  • 37
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) is prepared using the revised Low-income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF) to assess Zambia's current debt situation. Debt burden indicators have deteriorated considerably since the October 2017 DSA mainly on account of large fiscal deficits as the authorities made use of available financing to boost infrastructure spending, weaker growth and exchange rate, and a worsened external environment (terms of trade and financial conditions). Rising debt service costs (both externally and domestically) and a large pipeline of contracted and to-be-disbursed loans place Zambia's public debt on an unsustainable path under current policies while budget expenditure arrears have risen. Zambia's debt-carrying capacity has also weakened with its FX reserves' import coverage declining from 4.7 months in 2015 to 1.7 months in May 2019. All four external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds, three of them by large margins and throughout the medium-term under the baseline scenario. Total public debt is projected to increase somewhatin the near-term as, under unchanged policies, fiscal deficits remain large, before gradually declining as large debt-financed public projects are completed and forced fiscal adjustment occurs given financing constraints. As a frontier market, Zambia's high gross financing needs (peaking at 19 percent of GDP over the next three years), combined with wide EMBI spreads (1,575 basis points on June 11, 2019) and high domestic borrowing costs, expose it to significant market-financing risks. Despite the challenging fiscal situation, Zambia has remained current on all its debt obligations both domestic and external, and has not experienced a debt distress event. The authorities remain committed to prioritizing debt service payments and have identified resources to continue meeting debt obligations in the near-term. However, staff assess the risk of external and overall public debt distress for Zambia as very high at this juncture, and that a large upfront and sustained fiscal adjustment is essential to begin reducing debt vulnerabilities
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  • 38
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: While Thailand's pension system is typically described as a multipillar pension scheme, its design is highly fragmented and offers adequate coverage only to a small segment of the population, including civil servants and high-income individuals. In its 2018 Article IV report, the IMF highlighted the need for a broader pension reform, including parametric changes and ender inclusivepolicies to improve female labor force participation and attenuate the impact of aging on productivity growth. While these reforms are needed, private pensions can also play a role inimproving retirement income for individuals. As agreed with the Thai authorities, this technical note provides an assessment of the private, funded components of the pension system. A key component assessed is the voluntary provident fund scheme (PVD). The PVD scheme is voluntary and operates as a tax-incentivized scheme, which allows both employers and employees to take advantage of generous tax benefits for savings for retirement. This note also addresses the challenges of the private, funded system and proposes policy recommendations for increasing coverage, improving efficiency, and delivering sustainable retirement income in the payout phase. This note is organized as follows. The next section provides a brief description of the current overall pension system, public and private; Section III provides a diagnostic of the main challenges in the private, funded system; and Section IV provides recommendations for optimizing the design of the private, funded pension system. The focus of the note is to improve the incentive structure of the private, funded pension scheme
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  • 39
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This report contains the assessments of BAHTNET and TSD based on the PFMI. The assessment was undertaken in the context of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) of Thailand in November 2018. The assessors were Gynedi Srinivas and Dorothee Delort of the World Bank's Payment Systems Development Group. The assessors would like to thank the Thai counterparts for their excellent cooperation and generous hospitality. The objective of the assessment was to identify potential risks related to the FMIs that may affect financial stability. While safe and efficient FMIs contribute to maintaining and promoting financial stability and economic growth, they may also concentrate risk. If not properly managed, FMIs can be sources of financial shocks, such as liquidity dislocations and credit losses, or a major channel through which these shocks are transmitted across domestic and international financial markets. The scope of the assessment includes two main FMIs as well as the authorities in Thailand responsible for regulation, supervision, and oversight of FMIs. BAHTNET and TSD are assessed against all relevant principles of the PFMI. The authorities, the BOT and the SEC, are assessed using the responsibilities for authorities of FMIs
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  • 40
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: With some 19 million US Dollars (1.6 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada remains in external public debt distress. However, debt appears sustainable reflecting favorable projected debt dynamics from substantial fiscal surpluses that are supported by the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL). Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to 63.5 percent of GDP in 2018, with external public debt amounting to 44.5 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through fiscal consolidation that has been anchored by the FRL, robust economic growth, and a restructuring of Grenada's public debt. Going forward, continued adherence to the FRL and regularization of arrears will be needed to upgrade the risk rating. Debt should be further reduced and kept at levels needed to withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters
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  • 41
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Togo's risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is high-unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in December 2018. While the mechanical results point to a low risk of external debt distress, judgment was applied given vulnerabilities arising from high domestic debt, which could, for example, likely lead to a reprofiling operation that would lead to an increase in external debt. Togo's public debt is on a downward trajectory despite an increase in 2018 compared with 2017. Togo's high public debt is the result of, among other factors, high deficits, contingent liabilities, and accumulated arrears. There is very little space to absorb shocks on total public debt. Baseline projections show that Togo's PV of total PPG debt (external plus domestic)-to-GDP ratio will decline below the new debt distress benchmark of 55 percent starting in 2023, down from 72 percent in 2018-with the bulk constituting domestic debt obligations. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, and strong macroeconomic policies to reduce the public debt to prudent levels over the medium term
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  • 42
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    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Niger's risk of external and overall public debt distress is rated "moderate" as in the previous DSA. While all thresholds are observed in the baseline, the PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold under stress test scenarios. Debt-carrying capacity continues to be rated "medium." The analysis shows that Niger has limited space to accommodate negative shocks and remains vulnerable to adverse developments of its exports. The DSA is predicated on the government continuing to implement its reform program: fiscal consolidation; structural reforms, including revenue mobilization efforts; contain expenditures and improve spending quality; and timely completion of several large-scale projects, in particular the construction of a pipeline for crude oil exports. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening of debt management, including by broadening the coverage of public debt, prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification and mitigate the risks associated with commodity price fluctuations
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  • 43
    Online-Ressource
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: An updated DSA indicates that The Gambia is in external debt distress, though its public debt is deemed sustainable on a forward-looking basis. The external debt service-to-exports and -to-revenue ratios breach their indicative thresholds by large margins in the near term and signal major liquidity pressures. However, once these pressures are addressed by the prospective debt relief and the authorities' fiscal consolidation and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform program, the PV of total public debt would be brought below its threshold over the medium term. On the upside, debt relief discussions with external creditors are progressing and could unlock additional budget support. Downside risks mainly relate to the political environment and fiscal discipline, the unravelling of which could destabilize the economy and worsen the outlook for public debt
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  • 44
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Guinea is at moderate risk of external debt distress with some space to absorb shocks. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities will increase if adverse shocks materialize. Under the most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators breach their thresholds for prolonged periods. The overall risk of public debt distress is also assessed to be moderate, with the application of judgement regarding a brief and marginal breach for the PV of total public debt to GDP ratio over 2019-20, reflecting the one-off impact of the recapitalization of the central bank. Guinea's external and public debt position at end-2018 improved compared to the December 2018 DSA, owing to upward revisions of growth estimates in 2016-17, lower-than-anticipated external loan disbursements in 2018, and a stable exchange rate in 2018. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionally of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans to programmed amounts and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability
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  • 45
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana's external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana's medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline
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  • 46
    Online-Ressource
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The Union of Comoros remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb shocks is "limited." All debt burden indicators exhibit a continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export approaching its threshold at the end of the assessment horizon (2029) under the baseline scenario. (Thresholds reflect "medium" capacity to carry debt). The reduced space to absorb shocks reflects the taking on of a large new loan, a downward revision of projected exports in line with lower export prices and impacts of Cyclone Kenneth on debt accumulation. Shock scenarios indicate vulnerability to a deterioration of export performance, natural disasters, and exchange rate instability. Comoros' overall risk of debt distress remains moderate, given that domestic debt is expected to remain minimal. The authorities need to strengthen policies to improve macroeconomic performance including by making faster progress on domestic resource mobilization and broadening the export base. The authorities should proceed cautiously on taking up any new debt and may wish to largely avoid new non-concessional debt
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  • 47
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    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: A joint IMF-World Bank mission visited Thailand from November 1 to 16, 2018, and February 6 to 22, 2019, to update the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted in 2008. This report summarizes the main findings of the mission, identifies key financial sector vulnerabilities, and provides policy recommendations
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  • 48
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This assessment of the implementation of the BCP by the BOT is part of the FSAP undertaken by the IMF and the World Bank. The assessment was performed October 25 through November 16, 2018 and is based on the regulatory and supervisory framework in place at the time of this visit. Compliance was measured against standards issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in 2012.1 Since the previous assessment, conducted in 2008, the BCP standards have been revised and reflect the international consensus for minimum standards based on global experience. The view is that supervision should be based on a process involving well-defined requirements, supervisory onsite and offsite determination of compliance with requirements and risk assessments, and a strong program of enforcement and corrective action and sanctions. The 2012 revision placed increased emphasis on corporate governance, on supervisors conducting reviews to determine compliance with regulatory requirements, and on thoroughly understanding the risk profile of banks and the banking system. The assessors appreciated the high quality of cooperation received from the authorities. The mission extends its thanks to the staff of the BOT for its excellent cooperation and hospitality. The BOT provided a comprehensive and detailed self-assessment and granted access to supervisory manuals, onsite inspection reports, monitoring reports, and risk assessments
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  • 49
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This is an assessment of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (SEC) and, secondarily, of certain self-regulatory organizations (SRO) that participate in the regulation of the capital markets of Thailand. This assessment was conducted in February, 2019 as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The financial sector of Thailand shows strong growth and is dominated by banks, which are a major force in other components of the financial sector through separately licensed subsidiaries. The financial system's assets are equal to 259 percent of GDP (February 2018), with Thailand's 30 commercial banks (including 15 foreign branches or subsidiaries) holding 46 percent of financial sector assets and eight specialized (state-owned) financial institutions (SFIs) holding 15 percent. The three largest commercial banks account for 46 percent of banking sector assets, lower than that of its peer comparators. Banking sector growth, however, has been stagnant, growing to 156 percent of GDP (2018) from 153 percent (2012). Other segments of the financial sector have experienced higher growth in recent years. The market capitalization of the SET has grown to 104 percent of GDP (up from 67 percent of GDP in 2005, and from 37 percent of GDP in 2008). Insurance sector assets have grown from 10 percent of GDP in 2006 to over 22 percent of GDP in 2016
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  • 50
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: The Thai insurance sector is a relatively small but growing part of the country's financial services industry. Insurance sector assets have grown from 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006 to over 22 percent of GDP in 2016, constituting 9 percent of total financial industry assets. Similarly, between 2008 and 2017, gross premiums written have grown at an average annual rate of approximately 16.9 percent, substantially above nominal GDP growth of 9.9 percent during the same period. As a result, the insurance penetration ratio (the ratio of premiums written to GDP) has gradually increased from 3.63 percent in 2008 to 5.39 percent in 2017. This paper provides an assessment of significant regulatory and supervisory practices in the insurance sector of Thailand. The assessment was conducted by Charles Michael Grist, Financial Sector Consultant, the World Bank Group, and A. Thomas Finnell, Financial Sector Consultant to the International Monetary Fund, from February 6 until February 22, 2019. The last review of the Thai insurance sector was conducted as part of an April 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program Review (FSAP), but this review did not include a detailed assessment against the ICPs issued by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS)
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  • 51
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This assessment of the implementation of the BCP in India has been completed as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), which has been undertaken by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in 2017, at the request of the Indian authorities. The scope of the assessment is the scheduled commercial banks, and the assessment reflects the regulatory and supervisory framework in place as of the completion of the assessment. It is not intended to analyze the state of the banking sector or crisis management framework, which are addressed by other assessments conducted in this FSAP
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  • 52
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: For a long time, the urbanization and development discourse has coincided with a focus on economic growth and big cities. Yet, much of the world's new urbanization is taking place in smaller urban entities (towns), and the composition of urbanization may well bear on the speed of poverty reduction. This paper reviews the latter question within the context of Tanzania. It starts from the observation that migration to towns contributed much more to poverty reduction than migration to cities because many more (poor) rural migrants ended up in Tanzania's towns than its cities, despite larger welfare gains from moving to the city. Drawing on the findings from a series of studies, looking at this from different angles (theoretical and empirical, quantitative and qualitative), the paper shows how towns are better at enabling the rural poor to access off-farm employment and exit poverty because they are more nearby. It concludes with a call for greater consideration of the role of towns in accelerating Africa's poverty reduction
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  • 53
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: The 2018 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses that the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) remains at high risk of debt distress. The ratios of the present value (PV) of external public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt to GDP and to exports are currently just below their respective policy-dependent indicative thresholds. The PV of the PPG debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline slightly in the near term, but to start increasing and exceed its indicative threshold in the medium to long term. Stress tests confirm the vulnerability of the debt position to lending terms as well as macroeconomic shocks. Although the RMI does not currently face debt servicing risks, helped by government revenue from fishing licenses and a stable flow of funds from the U.S. Compact grants until FY2023, a lack of fiscal buffers after FY2023 and risks from contingent liabilities call for a fiscal reform strategy. Containing the risk of debt distress requires continuation of grants to support the country's large development needs, and implementation of fiscal and structural reforms to promote fiscal sustainability and growth
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  • 54
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: The costs of meeting the SDG WASH targets will be several times higher than investment levels during the MDG era (2000-15). The immense scale of the financing gap calls for innovative solutions. In addition to mobilizing more funding another approach is to deliver the needed infrastructure more efficiently and effectively and thus reduce the financing gap. Capital expenditure efficiency (CEE)-the efficient and effective use of capital-is less documented compared to operational efficiency. Although improving operating efficiency is frequently highlighted and readily evaluated, the scope for capital cost efficiencies is poorly understood, frequently overlooked, and difficult to evaluate, even though the scale of savings can be significant-in fact, capital and operating costs are equally important when considering full cost recovery. This study compiles case studies that show the andquot;art of the possibleandquot; in CEE. The report is not encyclopedic-many more examples could surface from a comprehensive study. It also doesnandapos;t quantify the savings possible through increasing CEE. However, almost all the examples show capital savings of 25 percent or more compared to traditional solutions. This alone this should give policy makers, donors, and utility managers pause for thought and encourage them to develop CEE in their sectors, projects, or utilities. A 25 percent improvement in CEE would allow existing investments to deliver a 33 percent increase in benefits
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  • 55
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) concludes that Afghanistan's external and overall risk of debt distress continues to be assessed as high. Afghanistan's debt sustainability hinges on continued donor grants inflows (currently around 40 percent of GDP) against substantial fiscal and external deficits and downside risks to the economic outlook. A gradual replacement of grants by debt financing leads to high risk of debt distress in the long run and is captured by mechanical risk ratings based on an extended 20-year period rather than the standard 10-year period. Significant downside risks include the fragile security situation, political uncertainty, domestic revenue shortfalls, weather related risks, and regional economic instability. The authorities should continue their efforts to mobilize revenue and implement reforms, while donors should continue to provide financing in the form of grants. Debt management capacity, including the monitoring of contingent liabilities emanating from state-owned entities and public-private partnerships (PPPs), should be strengthened
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  • 56
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: This paper develops the concept of 'action space' as the range of possible destinations to which a migrant can realistically move at a given point in time and, intimately linked to this, the set of possible livelihoods at destination. It shows how this space expands and contracts over time through 'cumulative causation.' Such a dynamic framework allows for appreciating the role of secondary towns in rural-urban migration and poverty reduction. Secondary towns occupy a unique middle ground between semi-subsistence agriculture and the capitalistic city, between what is close by and familiar and what is much further away and unknown. By opening the horizons of the (poorer) rural population and facilitating navigation of the nonfarm economy, secondary towns allow a broader base of the poor population to become physically, economically, and socially mobile. Secondary towns therefore have great potential as vehicles for inclusive growth and poverty reduction in urbanizing developing countries. These are the insights emerging from the in-depth life history accounts of 75 purposively selected rural-urban migrants from rural Kagera, in Tanzania
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  • 57
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: This report provides a Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) of Grenada's public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and total debt for 2018. The macro-framework incorporates all previous debt restructurings, including the November 2017 haircut on commercial debt. Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to below 71 percent of GDP in 2017 with external public debt declining to 48 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through a comprehensive restructuring of Grenada's public debt, fiscal consolidation, and robust economic growth. Nevertheless, with some USD 15.7 million (1.4 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada's external debt risk rating remains 'in debt distress'. Going forward full regularization of arrears and continued fiscal discipline will be needed to keep the debt on a downward path and withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters
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  • 58
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Debt and Creditworthiness Study
    Kurzfassung: Sao Tome and Principe is classified as being in debt distress according to this joint World Bank-IMF low-income country debt sustainability analysis (DSA). This assessment has changed from the previous DSA completed in December 2017 (high risk of external debt distress) due to the prolonged negotiations on rescheduling external arrears. Nonetheless, Sao Tome and Principe's debt ratios have improved since the previous DSA. Specifically, the ratio of the present value of public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt to gross domestic product (GDP) no longer exceeds its threshold under the baseline scenario, due to lower-than-expected loan disbursements in 2017, an appreciation of the euro vis-a -vis the U.S. dollar, and higher-than-expected GDP deflator growth. As in the previous DSA, the debt service ratios stay below their respective thresholds under almost all scenarios. Nevertheless, the ratios of the present value of debt to exports and to revenue still exceed their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario early in the projection period, though they decline over time. This DSA underscores the importance of lowering all PPG external debt indicators below their thresholds by continuing fiscal consolidation, eschewing non-concessional loans, promoting growth, and expanding the export base
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  • 59
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The authorities have actively pursued restoring credibility in the financial system following the collapse of the system's fourth largest bank in 2014. To restore credibility, the authorities - in addition to requesting a Basel Core Principles (BCP) assessment in 2015 and this financial sector assessment program (FSAP) - conducted an asset quality review (AQR) for banks and balance sheet review for non-banks, initiated reforms to Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) supervision and introduced a new bank resolution function. It is important that the authorities continue in their efforts to strengthen the banking sector. The FSAP stress test showed more pronounced effects, though broadly in line with that of the authorities, reflecting differences in approaches. While the financial safety net and crisis management arrangements are based on sound foundations, further effort is needed to fully develop the financial safety net's components. This includes strengthening the early intervention framework, and defining joint BNB - Ministry of Finance (MoF) strategies for liquidity assistance. A more targeted strategy is needed to address high nonperforming loans (NPLs), which can help reinvigorate the economy. A number of reforms are necessary to support the prudent development of the pension and insurance sector
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 60
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other Social Protection Study
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: After a decade of crisis and stellar economic growth over the past five years, Cote d'Ivoire has now set its sight on becoming an emerging economy. Improving prospects for productive employment will be essential for socially sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The "Cote d'Ivoire Jobs Diagnostic: Employment, Productivity, and Inclusion for Poverty Reduction" report provides a comprehensive and multi-sectoral empirical analysis of employment challenges and opportunities to inform strategies and policy actions in Cote d'Ivoire. The report aims to expand policy discussions on employment from a focus on the number of jobs and unemployment to a broader attention on the quality, productivity and inclusiveness of jobs. It makes the case for a jobs strategy with a sharper poverty lens that would focus on raising labor productivity in agriculture and informal off-farm employment to foster structural transformation, while, in parallel, pursuing longer-term goals of expanding the thin formal sector
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 61
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Ingelaere, Bert Why Secondary Towns Can Be Important for Poverty Reduction - A Migrant's Perspective
    Kurzfassung: This paper develops the concept of "action space" as the range of possible destinations to which a migrant can realistically move at a given point in time and, intimately linked to this, the set of possible livelihoods at destination. It shows how this space expands and contracts over time through "cumulative causation." Such a dynamic framework allows for appreciating the role of secondary towns in rural-urban migration and poverty reduction. Secondary towns occupy a unique middle ground between semi-subsistence agriculture and the capitalistic city, between what is close by and familiar and what is much further away and unknown. By opening the horizons of the (poorer) rural population and facilitating navigation of the nonfarm economy, secondary towns allow a broader base of the poor population to become physically, economically, and socially mobile. Secondary towns therefore have great potential as vehicles for inclusive growth and poverty reduction in urbanizing developing countries. These are the insights emerging from the in-depth life history accounts of 75 purposively selected rural-urban migrants from rural Kagera, in Tanzania
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 62
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Indonesia has exhibited strong macroeconomic performance, but developmental needs remain significant. To raise the living standards of a large population dispersed over thousands of islands, Indonesia must address several key challenges, including a sizeable infrastructure gap, relatively low productivity, and rising inequality. The authorities recognize that the financial sector needs to play a central role in overcoming such challenges. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious agenda to promote financial sector deepening and to strengthen financial oversight and crisis management. Despite substantial progress since the last FSAP, the financial sector is not yet sufficiently able to fund development needs or boost inclusive economic growth. To promote sustainable financial sector deepening and inclusion, the authorities could consider a more coordinated, cross-cutting approach by addressing root causes. To promote inclusive economic growth and strengthen financial markets, the authorities pursue a diverse policy mix which includes: expansion of the KUR credit guarantee program with an interest subsidy add-on; a deposit interest rate ceiling; requirements for non-bank financial institutions to hold debt issued by the government and state-owned enterprises; and moral suasion to lower bank lending rates. However, these measures may not prove effective in achieving sustainably higher growth and financial deepening
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  • 63
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464809668
    Sprache: Französisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (184 p.))
    Ausgabe: Online-Ausg.
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Druckausg.
    Schlagwort(e): French Translation ; Conflicts ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Chronic Poverty
    Kurzfassung: L'idee que l'on se fait de l'Afrique a radicalement change. Encore considere comme le continent des guerres, des famines et de la pauvrete chronique a la fin des annees 90, le continent africain est maintenant evoque sous l'angle de l'Afrique qui monte et du XXIe siecle africain. Deux decennies de croissance economique sans precedent devaient en principe ameliorer sensiblement le bien-etre des populations africaines. Il est toutefois difficile de dire si c'est effectivement le cas en raison de la mediocre qualite des donnees, de la nature du processus de croissance (s'agissant notamment du role des ressources naturelles), des conflits qui sevissent dans une partie la region et de la forte expansion demographique. Poverty in a Rising Africa decrit les problemes de donnees et analyse systematiquement les informations disponibles sur la pauvrete et les inegalites dans une perspective tant monetaire que non monetaire. Le premier chapitre evalue la disponibilite et la qualite des donnees necessaires pour cerner la pauvrete monetaire, examine les mecanismes de gouvernance et les processus politiques qui sous-tendent la production statistique et propose quelques methodes pour combler le deficit de donnees. Le chapitre 2 evalue la robustesse des estimations sur la pauvrete en Afrique et brosse a grands traits le profil de ce fleau. Selon les auteurs, la reduction de la pauvrete en Afrique est peut-etre legerement superieure a ce que les estimations traditionnelles portent a croire. Pour autant, meme les estimations les plus optimistes indiquent que davantage de personnes vivaient dans la pauvrete en 2012 qu'en 1990. Le troisieme chapitre considere la pauvrete dans une perspective elargie en prenant en compte les dimensions non monetaires du bien-etre, telles que l'education, la sante et la liberte, en utilisant la methode d'Amartya Sen (1985) axee sur les notions de capabilities et de functionings. Des progres ont certes ete accomplis dans plusieurs de ces domaines, mais les niveaux de resultats restent obstinement bas. Enfin, le chapitre 4 examine les donnees relatives aux inegalites en Afrique en analysant non seulement les types d'inegalites monetaires, mais aussi d'autres aspects tels que l'inegalite des chances, la mobilite intergenerationnelle dans le travail et l'education et l'extreme richesse
    Anmerkung: Description based on print version record
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  • 64
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Where to Create Jobs to Reduce Poverty: Cities Or Towns?
    Kurzfassung: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question, this paper extends the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The analysis first derives the labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. Then sufficient statistics are developed for the policy decisions based on these parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long-running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, the paper shows that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs
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  • 65
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Agriculture in Africa - Telling Myths from Facts: A Synthesis
    Kurzfassung: Stylized facts drive research agendas and policy debates. Yet robust stylized facts are hard to come by, and when available, often outdated. In a special issue of Food Policy, 12 papers revisit conventional wisdom on African agriculture and its farmers' livelihoods using nationally representative surveys from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Initiative in six African countries. At times, the findings simply confirm the common understanding of the topic. But the studies also throw up several surprises, redirecting some policy debates while fine-tuning others. Overall, the project calls for more attention to checking and updating the common wisdom. This requires nationally representative data, and sufficient incentives among researchers and policy makers alike. Without well-grounded stylized facts, they can easily be profoundly misguided
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  • 66
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Barrett, Christopher B On the Structural Transformation of Rural Africa
    Kurzfassung: From 2000 to 2014, per capita gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by almost 35 percent in real terms, doubling in some countries. Such progress happened while agricultural productivity growth remained low in the aggregate, despite some bright spots, and poverty reduction was steady but discouragingly slow. This paper argues that ending extreme poverty will require structural change in agriculture, and in rural African economies more broadly. Drawing on a range of recent research, the paper outlines broad priority areas for policy actions to accelerate productivity and initiate structural change in the agriculture sector and the rural nonfarm economy
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  • 67
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This financial sector assessment (FSA) summarizes the key findings and recommendations of the 2016 FSAP update report for Mexico. Mexico's economic growth has been steady and inflation remained low despite a significant depreciation of the exchange rate in the last 18 months.The medium term outlook for the Mexican economy foresees stable growth and inflation. After several years of contained growth, commercial bank credit grew by 14 percent in 2015, albeit from a very low base.Nonfinancial sector balance sheets show little sign of stress.Key risks to the macroeconomic outlook are mostly external in nature and stem from the close connection to US markets, the dependency on oil revenues, and potential resurgence of market volatility. A comprehensive financial reform was approved in November 2013 with the objective of increasing the financial sector's contribution to economic growth. The financial reform encompassed revisions to the banking law and other legislation to encourage credit expansion. This entailed a more active role of development banks in extending credit and measures to ensure that private financial institutions would channel credit to productive activities
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 68
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464811371
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (190 p)
    Serie: Directions in Development - Agriculture and Rural Development
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: Stylized facts set agendas and shape debates. In rapidly changing and data scarce environments, they also risk being ill-informed, outdated and misleading. So, following higher food prices since the 2008 world food crisis, robust economic growth and rapid urbanization, and climatic change, is conventional wisdom about African agriculture and rural livelihoods still accurate? Or is it more akin to myth than fact? The essays in "Agriculture in Africa" Telling Myths from Facts? aim to set the record straight. They exploit newly gathered, nationally representative, geo-referenced information at the household and plot level, from six African countries. In these new Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture, every aspect of farming and non-farming life is queried-from the plots farmers cultivate, the crops they grow, the harvest that is achieved, and the inputs they use, to all the other sources of income they rely on and the risks they face. Together the surveys cover more than 40 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. In all, sixteen conventional wisdoms are examined, relating to four themes: the extent of farmer's engagement in input, factor and product markets; the role of off-farm activities; the technology and farming systems used; and the risk environment farmers face. Some striking surprises, in true myth-busting fashion, emerge. And a number of new issues are also thrown up. The studies bring a more refined, empirically grounded understanding of the complex reality of African agriculture. They also confirm that investing in regular, nationally representative data collection yields high social returns
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  • 69
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This Technical Note examines India's securities market and the regulatory system overseeing the securities market and market participants. It is based upon a mission to Mumbai, India from March 14 - 31, 2017, conducted as one component of a joint IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This Note updates a detailed IOSCO assessment that was conducted from June 15 to July 1, 2011 as part of an FSAP and published in August 2013. It examines the changes that have occurred in India's securities markets since the last assessment and the changes that have occurred in the regulation of this market
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  • 70
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This Technical Note (TN) examines the current state of NPLs in Bulgaria and makes recommendations for a strategy to substantially reduce NPLs. These strategy recommendations were developed based on an assessment of the relevant regulatory and supervisory framework and bank practices, including relevant standards and practices for accounting treatments, early warning systems, NPL market development, and collateral valuation. The TN sets forth macroprudential approaches and other components of a sound strategy for NPL reduction, including improvements to loan loss provisioning, income recognition on NPLs, loan write-downs, early warning systems, collateral valuation, risk information for investors, and the NPL market. The NPL management process involves many stakeholders, and their mutual cooperation is important for success. The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), in its capacity as bank supervisor and regulator and as macroprudential authority for banks, will be in the lead position on the implementation of key aspects of the NPL reduction strategy that can achieve progress in the near term. Broader policies to enhance NPL resolution entail other stakeholders, including the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) that would need to engage in the areas of insolvency and collateral enforcement regimes
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  • 71
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: The authorities' vision o ...
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  • 72
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This assessment of insurance regulation in Indonesia was carried out as part of the 2016-17 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The Indonesian insurance sector is still vulnerable to a number of material risks. A number of insurers have failed in the last 10 years. After its establishment, OJK has taken prompt action in order to reduce the loss to policyholders by taking strong actions against four insurers with material deficits. OJK has monitored the capital adequacy of insurers through its risk based supervision scheme. During the recent market turmoil in 2015, the solvency requirement was relaxed for nine months while introducing the temporary suspension of mark to market valuation rules. The Indonesian insurance industry is exposed to significant catastrophic risk with domestic concentrations through mandatory reinsurance programs. The low interest rate environment in advanced economies is also affecting the life insurance sector, as insurers have some underwriting denominated in USD
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  • 73
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question the authors extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. The authors first derive labor income, migration cost and poverty line conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. The authors then develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters. The empirical remit of the model is illustrated with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs
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  • 74
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Miller, Daniel C Prevalence, Economic Contribution, and Determinants of Trees on Farms across Sub-Saharan Africa
    Kurzfassung: Trees on farms are often overlooked in agricultural and natural resource research and policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper addresses this gap using data from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture in five countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Trees on farms are widespread. On average, one third of rural smallholders grow trees. They account for an average of 17 percent of total annual gross income for tree-growing households and 6 percent for all rural households. Gender, land and labor endowments, and especially forest proximity and national context are key determinants of on-farm tree adoption and management. These new, national-scale insights on the prevalence, economic contribution and determinants of trees on farms in Africa lay the basis for exploring the interaction of agriculture, on-farm tree cultivation, and forestry. This will improve our understanding of rural livelihood dynamics
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  • 75
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This report responds to the February 2016 request from the G20. The report has been prepared in the framework of the Platform for Collaboration on Tax (the "PCT"), under the responsibility of the Secretariats and Staff of the four mandated organizations. The report reflects a broad consensus among these staff, but should not be regarded as the officially endorsed views of those organizations or of their member countries. The request arises in the context of increased recognition of the centrality to development of strong tax systems and of the importance of external support in building them, and a correspondingly increased willingness of advanced economies to provide substantially greater financing and other support for this. In that context, the report uses the experiences of the international organizations to analyze how support for developing tax capacity can be improved
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  • 76
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Gilbert, Christopher L Price Seasonality in Africa: Measurement and Extent
    Kurzfassung: Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption
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  • 77
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Christiaensen, Luc Secondary Towns and Poverty Reduction: Refocusing the Urbanization Agenda
    Kurzfassung: This review is framed around the exploration of a central hypothesis: A shift in public investment toward secondary towns from big cities will improve poverty reduction performance. Of course the hypothesis raises many questions. What exactly is the dichotomy of secondary towns versus big cities? What is the evidence for the contribution of secondary towns versus cities to poverty reduction? What are the economic mechanisms for such a differential contribution and how does policy interact with them? The review finds preliminary evidence and arguments in support of the hypothesis, but the impacts of policy on poverty are quite complex even in simple settings, and the question of secondary towns and poverty reduction is an open area for research and policy analysis
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  • 78
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: A joint IMF-World Bank mission visited the Russian Federation from March 15 to 31, 2016, to conduct an assessment under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The mission assessed financial sector risks and vulnerabilities, assessed the quality of financial sector supervision, and evaluated financial safety net arrangements. The mission also assessed financial inclusion for individuals, the role of the state in the financial sector, insurance sector development, and the payment system
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  • 79
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: At the request of the Colombian authorities, the bank resolution regime was assessed against the Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions (KAs). The assessment was conducted by staff of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank utilizing the draft KA Assessment Methodology (AM). The assessment reviewed the resolution regime as of October 2015, and was limited to the banking sector, considering only those elements of the AM that directly relate to bank resolution without assessing those addressing the resolution of insurance firms, investment firms and financial market infrastructures (FMIs). As a draft methodology was used, the findings of the assessment should be viewed as preliminary. A central goal of this assessment was to test the draft AM, and a future revision of the AM might yield different results with respect to the adherence of the Colombian bank resolution regime to the KAs. In this light, no ratings were assigned in this review. This assessment was the first one undertaken in a country that is not a member of the FSB, or home to a Global Systemically Important Financial Institution (G-SIFI)
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  • 80
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: This technical note discusses the current status of banking supervision and regulation in Montenegro in the context of select Basel Core Principles (BCP). This note has been prepared as part of a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update conducted jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) in September 2015. As agreed with the authorities, the FSAP tea
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  • 81
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The establishment of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) as a unified or 'Mega Regulator' in 2013 is an emblem of the far reaching changes to the legal and supervisory landscape in recent years. The level of compliance with the Basel Core Principles (BCP) reflects the transitional nature of the supervisory practices in Russia at the time of the assessment. The CBR is in the course of developing and enhancing its Risk Based Approach to supervision. The regulatory approach in the Russian Federation is highly rules based and this presents some specific challenges to an effective risk based supervisory regime. Supervision and Anti-Money Laundering and/Countering Terrorist Financing (AML/CFT) regulations have been improved. Effective communication and flow of information has been improving but some limitations still apply
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  • 82
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Kurzfassung: With about RUB 988bn (USD 26bn) in gross premium written, in 2014, the Russian insurance industry ranked 27th in the world. Non-life insurance premium accounted for 89 percent of GPW while life insurance for only 11 percent. In 2015, the industry also faced with the consequences of the Western economic sanctions which effectively closed access to the high quality Western reinsurance capacity for the Russian insurers that provide coverage for 1500 large Russian companies which were put on the sanctions list. In the past, the Western reinsurers provided over 80 percent of reinsurance capacity for such risks. In the case of Russia, the main objective of insurance supervision is to ensure that insurers fully comply with core regulatory norms fixed by the law in the following four areas of insurance operations: (a) solvency (capital adequacy); (b) insurance reserves; (c) assets covering own funds; and (d) assets covering reserves. The objective of off-site and onsite supervision is restricted to ensuring compliance of insurers with these four regulatory norms. In this context, the resources of the insurance supervisor are by and large dedicated towards meeting this objective. While the dispersion of insurance supervisory functions among numerous CBR departments with various reporting lines carries certain advantages (such as a reduced potential for the conflict of interest), it also has a potential for major drawbacks. These include the potential for (a) insufficient coordination among different departments, (b) shortage of necessary insurance expertise within departments universally dealing with a wide range of financial services, and (c) impaired ability of the regulator as a whole to systematically detect problems with compliance in such a technically complex industry as insurance at an early stage
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  • 83
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Palacios-Lopez, Amparo How Much of the Labor in African Agriculture is Provided by Women?
    Kurzfassung: Communities & Human Settlements
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  • 84
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Kaminski, Jonathan Seasonality in Local Food Markets and Consumption: Evidence from Tanzania
    Kurzfassung: This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent; it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10 percent among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality from Africas development debate seems premature
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  • 85
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Jedwab, Remi Demography, Urbanization and Development: Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push?
    Kurzfassung: Communities & Human Settlements
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  • 86
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (1 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Other papers
    Kurzfassung: This background paper describes five different tools that can be used for the assessment of tax incentives by governments in low income countries' (LICs). The first tool (an application of cost-benefit analysis) provides an overarching framework for assessment. Evaluations of the various costs and benefits of tax incentives are vital for informed decision making, but are rarely undertaken, partly because it can be a difficult exercise that is demanding in terms of data needs. The next three tools (tax expenditure assessment, corporate micro simulation models, and effective tax rate models) can be used as part of a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, to shed light on particular aspects. Effective tax rate models shed light on the implications of tax parameters - including targeted tax incentives - on investment returns and help understand the implications of reform for expected investment outcomes. The document presents two tools for assessing the transparency and governance of tax incentives in LICs. These discuss principles in transparency and governance of tax incentives, and allow for benchmarking existing LIC practices against better alternatives
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  • 87
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    ISBN: 9781464803376
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (240 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Serie: Global Monitoring Report
    Kurzfassung: The Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015: Ending Poverty and Sharing Prosperity was written jointly by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund, with substantive inputs from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This year's report details, for the first time, progress toward the WBG's twin goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity and assesses the state of policies and institutions that are important for achieving them. The report continues to monitor progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Also for the first time, the report includes information about high-income countries. It finds that while gaps in living standards have been closing in many countries, the well-being of households in the bottom 40 percent, as measured by the non-income MDGs such as access to education and health services, remains below that of households in the top 60 percent. The focus of this year's report is on three elements needed to make growth more inclusive and sustainable: investment in human capital that favors the poor, the best use of safety nets, and steps to ensure the environmental sustainability of economic growth. These three elements are imperative to all countries' development strategies, and are also fundamental to global efforts to achieve the twin goals, the MDGs, and the Sustainable Development Goals that will succeed the MDGs. Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015 was prepared in collaboration with regional development banks and other multilateral partners
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  • 88
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Kaminski, Jonathan The End of Seasonality?
    Kurzfassung: This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase and increasing when they decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention
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  • 89
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (34 p)
    Ausgabe: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Kaminski, Jonathan Post-Harvest Loss in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Kurzfassung: The 2007-2008 global food crisis has renewed interest in post-harvest loss, but estimates remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses self-reported measures from nationally representative household surveys in Malawi, Uganda, and Tanzania. Overall, on-farm post-harvest loss adds to 1.4-5.9 percent of the national maize harvest, substantially lower than the Food and Agriculture Organization's post-harvest handling and storage loss estimate for cereals, which is 8 percent. Post-harvest loss is concentrated among less than a fifth of households. It increases with humidity and temperature and declines with better market access, post-primary education, higher seasonal price differences, and possibly improved storage practices. Wider use of nationally representative surveys in studying post-harvest loss is called for
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  • 90
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Christiaensen, Luc Poverty Reduction during the Rural-Urban Transformation
    Kurzfassung: As countries develop, they restructure away from agriculture and urbanize. But structural transformation and urbanization patterns differ substantially, with some countries fostering migration out of agriculture into rural off farm activities and secondary towns, and others undergoing rapid agglomeration in mega cities. Using cross-country panel data for developing countries spanning 1980-2004, the analysis in this paper finds that migration out of agriculture into the missing middle (the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns) yields more inclusive growth patterns and faster poverty reduction than agglomeration in mega cities. This suggests that patterns of urbanization deserve much more attention when striving for faster poverty reduction
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  • 91
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Christiaensen, Luc Urbanization and Poverty Reduction
    Schlagwort(e): Armutsbekämpfung ; Stadtentwicklung ; Stadt-Land-Beziehungen ; Ländliche Wirtschaft ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Urbanisierung ; Tansania
    Kurzfassung: A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania during 1991/4-2010 shows that about one in two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one in seven exited poverty by migrating to a large city, although those moving to a city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns
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  • 92
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (51 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Christiaensen, Luc On the Fungibility of Spending and Earnings
    Kurzfassung: A common behavioral assumption of micro-economic theory is that income is fungible. Using household panel data from rural China and Tanzania, this study finds however that people are more likely to spend unearned income on less basic consumption goods such as alcohol and tobacco, non-staple food, transportation and communication, and clothing, while they are somewhat more likely to spend earned income on basic consumption goods such as staple food, and invest it in education. This resonates with the widespread cultural notion that money that is easily earned is also more easily spent. Cognitively, the results could be understood within the context of emotional accounting, whereby people classify income based on the emotions it evokes, prompting them to spend hard earned money more wisely to mitigate the negative connotations associated with its acquisition. The policy implications are real, bearing for example on the choice between employment guarantee schemes and cash transfers in designing social security programs
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  • 93
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (33 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Christiaensen, Luc Greening China's Rural Energy
    Kurzfassung: Clean, safe energy for rural areas is an important component of green growth and sustainable development. Biogas could be an important contributor, if its record in reality lives up to its expected potential. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of biogas use by smallholder farmers in rural China, using data collected from 2,700 households in five provinces. The authors find that user satisfaction is high, and environmental and economic benefits appear tangible. There are strong indications of reduced use of wood and crop residues for fuel. Less time is spent on collecting fuel wood and cooking, which is especially beneficial to women. Adopters also save on fertilizers, because of the use of biogas residues. Moreover, problems with suspension of biogas use, whether due to technical or human factors, remained limited. However, few tangible benefits to respiratory health were detected. Overall, these findings are grounds for optimism about the potential for of smallholder biogas to contribute to more sustainable development, in China and beyond
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  • 94
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This is an initial report of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) assessment performed in 2010 as part of the financial sector assessment program (FSAP) of China. The assessment was prepared on the basis of a self-assessment prepared by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), public information contained on the CSRC website and the websites of other entities in China, and a review of relevant Chinese laws and regulations. The timely completion of this assessment was greatly facilitated by the cooperation provided by numerous members of the staff of the CSRC. The CSRC has broad regulatory authority over the stock and futures exchanges, the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited (SD and C) and other clearing and settlement institutions, securities companies, futures companies, and collective investment scheme (CIS) operators. This paper is divided into two parts. The first part gives summary, key findings, and recommendations. It is further divided into following six parts: (i) introduction; (ii) information and methodology used for assessment; (iii) institutional and market structure- overview; (iv) preconditions for effective securities regulation; (v) key findings; and (vi) recommended action plan and authorities' response. The second part gives tabular detailed assessment
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  • 95
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: China's success in addressing food problems after adopting the reforms in 1978 has been nothing less than remarkable. Grain output (rice, wheat and maize) has almost doubled and most hunger has been eliminated. Ever since China embarked on its reform agenda more than 30 years ago, its economic growth and poverty reduction have been nothing less than remarkable. Agriculture has been an important contributor to these developments. Since 1978, China has almost doubled its cereal production (rice, wheat and maize) and it is now feeding 1.3 billion people, or 20 percent of the world's population, while having less than 11 percent of the world s agricultural land and less than 6 percent of its water. New challenges are presenting themselves for China's agriculture, and old ones are resurfacing. High (land saving) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and increasingly open domestic and international markets, combined with grain self-sufficiency targets, a multitude of very small, fragmented production structures, and distorted land and labor markets have defined Chinese agriculture over the past three decades. The relative importance of agriculture s three problems in policymaking thus evolves during the course of development away from the food to the farm and field problems. This shift has however recently been compounded by a resurgence of the food problem, as global supplies struggle to keep up with demand. China's agriculture anno 2030 will be predominantly a modern commercial smallholder agriculture that ensures self-sufficiency in cereal food (rice and wheat), but not in cereal feed (maize and soybeans). The sector will maximize rural employment opportunities in labor intensive high value agricultural products and act as a diligent custodian of its precious natural resources
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  • 96
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: Almost four years since the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, unemployment and underemployment remain stubbornly high in many G20 countries, and many workers remain trapped in low paid, often informal, jobs with little social protection. Job creation has been anemic in many countries, too slow to fully reabsorb the mass of unemployed and underemployed or, particularly in some emerging market economies, to keep pace with labour force growth and the pressures of rural-urban migration. This raises concerns about the long-term negative effects on human capital, growing inequality and lower future output growth. The political pressures are high, and the risk of a drift towards protectionist measures aimed at 'keeping jobs at home' cannot be ignored. While there is substantial variation in national contexts, G20 countries can help minimize these risks through collective and collaborative work aimed at identifying and implementing credible policy reforms that will boost job creation, employment and the quality of jobs. The report aims at providing a preliminary review of countries' experiences against the backdrop of an evolving economic outlook and could form the basis of a more in-depth analysis, should Ministers request it. Improving labour market outcomes involves several challenges relating to both the quantity and quality aspects of job creation. There is a need in all countries to harness growth to generate labour market opportunities that correspond to labour force growth
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 97
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: This assessment is focused on the Superintendencia de Seguros de la Nacion (SSN) in Argentina. SSN has responsibility for regulation and supervision of all players in the insurance market. In addition to its role as a supervisor, SSN has powers to issue regulations, is responsible for advising the executive on issues related to insurance, and can propose draft bills. The laws are passed by the national legislative branch and enacted by the national executive branch. The assessment was performed using the 2007 version of the core principles for insurance supervision issued by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS). This paper is structured into following four parts: part one is information and methodology used for the assessment; part two is institutional and macro prudential setting, part three gives summary assessment; and part four gives authorities' responses
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 98
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource
    Serie: Other papers
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Kurzfassung: The focus of the paper is on five key financial stability issues in Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), which have been selected on the basis of their degree of materiality for a reasonably broad range of EMDEs; their implications for regulatory, supervisory or other financial sector policies; and the extent to which these issues are not already being addressed by other international work streams. The paper does not cover other financial stability issues that may also be relevant for EMDEs but are addressed in other G20/Financial Stability Board (FSB) work streams. Such issues include the management of sizeable and volatile capital flows; the design of policy measures to address the risks arising from systemically important financial institutions; the development of macro-prudential policy frameworks; the creation of effective resolution tools and regimes for financial institutions; strengthening the oversight and regulation of the shadow banking system; and reforming the functioning of over-the-counter derivatives and commodities markets. This paper focuses on five key financial stability issues in EMDEs: 1) application of international financial standards; 2) promoting cross-border supervisory cooperation; 3) expanding the regulatory and supervisory perimeter; 4) management of foreign exchange risks; and 5) developing domestic capital markets
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 99
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (42 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Pan, Lei Who is Vouching for the Input Voucher?
    Kurzfassung: Input subsidy programs carry support as instruments to increase agricultural productivity, provided they are market-smart. This requires especially proper targeting to contain the fiscal pressure, with decentralized targeting of input vouchers currently the instrument of choice. Nonetheless, despite clear advantages in administrative costs, the fear of elite capture persists. These fears are borne out in the experience from the 2008 input voucher pilot program in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, examined here. Elected village officials received about 60 percent of the distributed vouchers, a factor that significantly reduced the targeting performance of the program, especially in more unequal and remote communities. When targeting the poor, greater coverage and a focus on high trust settings helped mitigate these concerns. The findings highlight the continuing need for scrutiny when relying on decentralized targeting. A clearer sense of purpose (increasing productivity among poorer farmers versus increasing aggregate output) could also enhance the targeting performance
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 100
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Christiaensen, Luc Small Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty
    Kurzfassung: Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time-an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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