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  • 1
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    Does Fiscal Decentralisation Strengthen Social Capital? : Cross-Country Evidence and the Experiences of Brazil and Indonesia (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.825
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Indonesia
    Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that, by giving people more voice in the government decision-making process, fiscal decentralisation fosters social capital, measured in terms of interpersonal trust. Empirical evidence based on World Values Survey data and seemingly unrelated probit estimations for a cross-section of countries suggests that people living in federal/decentralised countries find it more important to have voice in government decisions than their counterparts living in unitary/centralised countries. Pro-voice attitudes are, in turn, associated with greater social capital. The cross-country estimations are complemented by country-specific regressions for Brazil and Indonesia on account of these countries. experiences with fiscal decentralisation. The results show that the cohorts of individuals that have been exposed to decentralisation are in general more pro-voice (and trustful of strangers in the case of Brazil) than their counterparts that have not been exposed to decentralisation. These findings are not driven by the effects of political liberalisation on people.s attitudes towards the importance of having voice in government decisions and interpersonal trust.
    DOI: 10.1787/5km347ntdnxn-en
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  • 2
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    Current Account Sustainability in Brazil : A Non-Linear Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.703
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: The possibility that a country’s external current account may adjust nonlinearly to shocks is attracting increasing attention in the empirical literature. To shed further light on this issue in the context of emerging-market economies, this paper uses Brazilian data to estimate the determinants of the current account in a smooth-transition vector-autoregressive (ST-VAR) setting. We allow for the transition parameters and the model coefficients to be estimated simultaneously by non-linear constrained maximum likelihood. We find strong evidence of non-linearity in the VAR when (lagged) government consumption and investment are used as the variables governing transition across regimes. The computation of non-linear impulse response functions suggests that the system’s history, as well as the sign and magnitude of shocks, affect the current account’s responses to exogenous changes in income, government consumption and investment. In particular, responses to fiscal shocks depend on whether they are positive or negative and whether they follow periods of fiscal expansions or contractions. Current account responses to a positive fiscal impulse are much stronger when conditioned on periods of fiscal expansion (rising government consumption) than retrenchment. The importance of conditioning history and the magnitude of shocks in the current account’s response to shocks is confirmed by forecast error variance decomposition analysis.
    DOI: 10.1787/223518424256
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  • 3
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    Price and Volume Elasticities of Brazilian Foreign Trade : A Profit Function Approach (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.704
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil, like other natural resource-exporting countries, has benefited from a sharp increase in commodity prices over the last few years. To investigate the possible impact of terms-of-trade gains on the real economy, this paper estimates normalised quadratic input demand and output supply functions for the Brazilian economy during 1997-2008. Technological change is modelled in a flexible manner through the inclusion of quadratic splines in the profit function. The paper contributes to the literature by using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression techniques to estimate the input demand and output supply functions and by disaggregating exports and imports into capital, consumption and intermediate goods. Improvements in the terms of trade due to rising export prices and/or falling import prices are associated with hikes in export volumes on the back of rising import demand and some labour shedding in the sectors using imported capital goods. The direct impact of terms-of-trade changes on domestic consumption and investment is comparatively modest, possibly due to the fact that the Brazilian economy remains relatively closed to trade.
    DOI: 10.1787/223388731464
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  • 4
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    Interdependencies between Monetary policy and Foreign-Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting : The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.593
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Czech Republic
    Abstract: The bulk of recent literature on foreign-exchange interventions has overlooked the potential interdependencies that may exist between these operations and the conduct of monetary policy. This is the case even under inflation targeting and especially in emerging-market economies, because central banks often explicitly reserve the right to intervene to calm disorderly markets and to accumulate foreign reserves, and when the exchange rate is perceived as out of step with fundamentals. This paper uses a friction model to estimate intervention reaction functions and the associated marginal effects for Brazil and the Czech Republic since adoption of inflation targeting in these countries in 1999 and 1998, respectively. The main findings are that: i) in both countries interventions occur predominantly to reduce exchange-rate volatility, while in Brazil the central bank also reacts to exchange-rate deviations from medium-term trends; ii) there are strong, asymmetric threshold effects in the reaction functions, and interventions are more likely and of higher magnitudes when they are carried out to depreciate than to appreciate the domestic currency; and iii) interventions seem to take place independently of contemporaneous monetary policy in Brazil, but not in the Czech Republic, where both policies appear to be interrelated.
    DOI: 10.1787/245585283155
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  • 5
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    Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability in Latin America : The Cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.545
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Chile ; Colombia ; Mexico
    Abstract: In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries.
    DOI: 10.1787/285851107845
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  • 6
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    The Brazilian 'Tax War' : The Case of Value-Added Tax Competition among the States (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.544
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper tests for horizontal tax competition in the VAT for a sample of Brazilian states in the period 1985-2001. The states have considerable autonomy to set their VAT rates and bases, often using this tax as an industrial policy tool. The empirical findings, based on the estimation of a tax reaction function in an error-correction set-up, confirm the hypothesis of horizontal tax competition: the states react strongly to changes in their neighbours? VAT code, especially those that belong to the same geo-economic region. Also, there appears to be a Stackelberg leader among the states, with the remaining jurisdictions responding strongly to its policy moves. There is no co-occupancy of tax bases between different levels of government and hence limited scope for vertical externalities in tax setting. But the fact that the federal government shares with the states part of the revenue of its more elastic taxes, such as the income tax, appears to affect the opportunity cost of horizontal tax competition.
    DOI: 10.1787/286220576442
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  • 7
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    Social Security Reform in Brazil : Achievements and Remaining Challenges (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.534
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main elements of social security reform in Brazil since 1998 and discusses areas where further policy action is yet to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the social-security system over time. Outlays on pensions paid to private-sector workers have risen as a result of population ageing and the increase in the value of the minimum wage in real terms, to which the minimum pension is linked. Some features of existing social protection programmes, including means-tested old-age and disability-related benefits, reduce the incentives facing workers to seek social security coverage. At the same time, an expansion of the base of contributions to social security has been constrained by widespread labour informality. Further reform will therefore need to focus on options for containing the rise in social security spending while tackling labour informality so as to broaden the base of contributions.
    DOI: 10.1787/353362832738
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  • 8
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    Consolidating Macroeconomic Adjustment in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.531
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil?s overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending, especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
    DOI: 10.1787/361015676222
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  • 9
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    Improving Labour Utilisation in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.533
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Labour force participation is comparable to the OECD area for prime-age males. It is somewhat lower for females and is trending down for youths as a result of rising school enrolment. The labour market is placing an increasing premium on skills, making it particularly difficult for the less educated to find a job. Labour informality is pervasive and turnover high, especially for the less educated, discouraging investment in labour training and the acquisition of job-related skills, and perpetuating income disparities. The main policy challenge is to improve labour utilisation by reducing informality and fostering human capital accumulation on and off the job. A stable macroeconomy is a pre-condition for reducing unemployment, but a greater focus on activation within the current policy framework would be advisable. To close the remaining gender gap, female labour force participation in full-time jobs could be encouraged by increasing the supply of affordable child care and pre-school education. Labour turnover can be reduced by mitigating the incentives for negotiated separation, which currently arise from the design of severance insurance (FGTS) in the event of unfair dismissal. Skill marketability can be enhanced through the introduction of a national skills certification system, and labour training can become more cost-effective through increased contestability in existing programmes.
    DOI: 10.1787/353720822276
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  • 10
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    Boosting Innovation Performance in Brazil (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.532
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's main challenge in innovation policy is to encourage the business sector to engage in productivity-enhancing innovative activities. At 1% of GDP, R&D spending (both public and private) is comparatively low by OECD standards and is carried out predominantly by the government. Most scientists work in public universities and research institutions, rather than in the business sector. Output indicators, such as the number of patents held abroad, suggest that there is much scope for improvement. Academic patenting effort is being stepped up and should be facilitated by the easing of restrictions on the transfer and sharing of proceeds of intellectual property rights between businesses and public universities and research institutions. Innovation policy is beginning to focus on the potential synergies among science and technology promotion, R&D support and trade competitiveness. To be successful in boosting business innovation, these policies will need to be complemented by measures aimed at tackling the shortage of skills in the labour force; this shortage is among the most important deterrents to innovation in Brazil, particularly against the backdrop of a widening gap in tertiary educational attainment with respect to the OECD area.
    DOI: 10.1787/357276015553
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  • 11
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    Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005 : The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.485
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's fiscal adjustment since the floating of the real in 1999 has been impressive, even in periods of lacklustre growth. This suggests a remarkable fiscal effort to ensure public debt sustainability. To better gauge the magnitude of this adjustment effort, this paper applies the methodology used by the OECD Secretariat to distinguish changes in the fiscal stance that are due to policy action from those that are related to the automatic stabilisers built into the tax code, the social security system and unemployment insurance. The paper's main finding is that discretionary action tends to be essentially pro-cyclical in downturns, underscoring the presence of a strong "sustainability motive" in the conduct of Brazilian fiscal policy. Spending on mandatory items, such as personnel, are pro-cyclical in upturns too, which can create a "ratcheting-up" effect on government spending over time, an issue that will have to be addressed to improve the quality of on-going fiscal adjustment. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by 1 percentage point is associated with a decrease in discretionary federal spending by 0.33 percentage point during 1997-2005. This responsiveness appears to have become stronger after the floating of the real in 1999. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Brazil (www.oecd.org/eco/survey/brazil).
    DOI: 10.1787/857281763217
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  • 12
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    Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function : The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.423
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure, with about two-thirds of changes in primary spending being offset through higher revenue over the long term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have strengthened after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced.
    DOI: 10.1787/556325773018
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  • 13
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    Education Attainment in Brazil : The Experience of FUNDEF (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.424
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: For many years, Brazil lagged behind other middle-income countries in terms of school enrolment rates. But since 1998 policies have aimed at bridging this gap, in particular, with the implementation of FUNDEF, a fund for financing sub-national spending on primary and lower-secondary education. Using state- and municipality-level data during 1991-2002, this paper shows that FUNDEF played a key role in the increase in enrolment rates over the period, particularly in small municipalities, which rely more heavily on transfers from higher levels of government as a source of revenue. These findings underscore the importance of FUNDEF in eliminating supply constraints to the improvement of education attainment. Enrolment rates are now nearly universal for primary and lower-secondary education. Emphasis should therefore be placed on policies to improve the quality of services and to remove supply constraints to the expansion of enrolment in upper-secondary and tertiary education.
    DOI: 10.1787/556807485718
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  • 14
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    Budgeting in Brazil (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal on budgeting Vol. 3, no. 1, p. 97-131
    Details
    ISSN: 1681-2336
    Language: English
    Pages: 37 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. La budgétisation au Brésil
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal on budgeting
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 3, no. 1, p. 97-131
    Keywords: Governance ; Brazil
    Abstract: During his September 2002 visit to OECD Headquarters in Paris, Mr. Guilherme DIAS, the Minister of Planning, Budget and Management, requested the OECD to carry out a review of the Brazilian budgeting system in a similar fashion as it does for its member countries.The OECD responded positively to this request, recognising that Brazil is an established observer of the OECD Working Party of Senior Budget Officials and a key partner in the OECD’s overall programme of co-operation with nonmembers.
    DOI: 10.1787/budget-v3-art6-en
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  • 15
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    La budgétisation au Brésil (2003)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue de l'OCDE sur la gestion budgétaire Vol. 3, no. 1, p. 109-146
    Details
    ISSN: 1684-3525
    Language: French
    Pages: 40 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Budgeting in Brazil
    Titel der Quelle: Revue de l'OCDE sur la gestion budgétaire
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 2001
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 3, no. 1, p. 109-146
    Keywords: Governance ; Brazil
    Abstract: Au cours de sa visite au siège de l’OCDE à Paris en septembre 2002, M. Guilherme DIAS, ministre du Plan, du Budget et de la Gestion a demandé à l’OCDE de réaliser, pour le système budgétaire brésilien, une étude semblable à celles qui sont réalisées pour ses pays membres. L’OCDE a répondu favorablement à cette requête en reconnaissant que le Brésil est un observateur bien établi auprès du Groupe de travail des hauts responsables du budget de l’OCDE et un partenaire clé du programme global de l’OCDE de coopération avec les pays non membres. En raison du temps limité alloué à la réalisation de cette étude, il a été décidé que le rapport n’aborderait pas le système de fédéralisme budgétaire du Brésil.
    DOI: 10.1787/budget-v3-art6-fr
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