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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trade as an Engine of Growth : Sputtering but Fixable (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (62 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ohnsorge, Franziska Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable
    Keywords: Commodity Market Disrupiton ; COVID-19 Pandemic Trade Recovery ; Developing Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Global Recession ; Impediments To Trade ; International Economics and Trade ; Trade
    Abstract: International trade has been an important engine of output and productivity growth historically. But since the global financial crisis, world trade growth has slowed, reflecting cyclical and structural forces. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have further disrupted commodity markets, global supply chains and the trade that accompanies them. A removal of impediments that raise trade costs could reinvigorate world trade. Trade costs, on average, roughly double the cost of internationally traded goods relative to domestically sold goods. Tariffs amount to only one-twentieth of average trade costs; the bulk are incurred in shipping and logistics, and trade procedures and processes at and behind the border. Despite a decline since 1995, trade costs remain about one-half higher in EMDEs than in advanced economies; about two-fifths of this gap appears to be due to higher shipping and logistics costs and a further two-fifths due to trade policy. A comprehensive reform package to lower trade costs could yield large dividends. It is estimated that among the worst-performing EMDEs, a hypothetical reform package to improve logistics and maritime connectivity to the standards of the best-performing EMDEs would halve trade costs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10356
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Potential Growth Prospects : Risks, Rewards, and Policies (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Kilic Celik, Sinem Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
    Keywords: Emerging Markets ; Growth Expectations ; Human Capital Accumulation ; Labor Force Participation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Production Function ; Slow Growth ; Social Development
    Abstract: Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario-by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year-if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10355
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan The Aftermath of Debt Surges
    Keywords: Debt Burden ; Debt Markets ; Debt Restructuring ; Debt Service ; Debt Sustainability ; Economic Growth ; Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Repression ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Consolidation ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated debt levels increased the incidence of debt distress, particularly in EMDEs and particularly when financial market conditions turned less benign. This paper reviews an encompassing menu of options that have, in the past, helped lower debt burdens. Specifically, it examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. Some options may ultimately be ineffective unless vigorously implemented. Policy reversals in difficult times have been common. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can cast their net wider to cushion prospective shocks to EMDEs
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9771
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pandemic Impact ; Pandemic Response ; Private Debt ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings. First, during the 2020 global recession, both global government and private debt levels rose to record highs, and at their fastest single-year pace, in five decades. Second, the debt-financed, massive fiscal support programs implemented during the pandemic supported activity and illustrated the benefits of accumulating debt. However, as the recovery gains traction, the balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation could increasingly tilt toward costs. Third, more than two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies are currently in government debt booms. On average, the current booms have already lasted three years longer, and are accompanied by a considerably larger fiscal deterioration, than earlier booms. About half of the earlier debt booms were associated with financial crises in emerging market and developing economies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9800
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? : Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Kose, M. Ayhan What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
    Keywords: Business Cycle ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt Markets ; Disease Control and Prevention ; External Debt ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Trends ; Global Recession ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; International Economics and Trade ; Macroeconomic Management ; Pandemic Impact ; Private Debt ; Public Debt
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid buildup of debt in emerging market and developing economies-dubbed the "fourth wave" of debt-had been underway. Because of the sharp increase in debt during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, the fourth wave of debt has turned into a tsunami and become even more dangerous. Second, five years after past global recessions, global government debt continued to increase. In light of this historical record, and given large financing gaps and significant investment needs in many countries, debt levels will likely continue to rise in the near future. Third, debt resolution has become more complicated because of a highly fragmented creditor base, a lack of transparency in debt reporting, and a legacy stock of government debt without collective action clauses. National policy makers and the global community need to act rapidly and forcefully ensure that the fourth wave does not end with a string of debt crises in emerging market and developing economies as earlier debt waves did
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9871
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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