Language:
English
Pages:
1 Online-Ressource (61 Seiten)
DDC:
300
Keywords:
international migration
;
welfare spending
;
network approaches
;
Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM)
;
Sozialwissenschaften
Abstract:
The so-called ‘Welfare Magnet Hypothesis‘ (WMH) suggests that the generosity of welfare institutions in destination countries acts as a pull factor for migration. However, evidence for this claim is mixed. Existing research focuses on the conditions in destination countries, but less on explanatory factors in origin countries. Specifically, migration is analyzed mainly from the perspective of OECD countries as potential destinations, rather than from a global perspective, and research often ignores that migration flows are not mutually independent, which can lead to an overestimation of the effects of welfare spending. We explicitly address these shortcomings by using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) to model migration flows between 160 countries worldwide and treating indicators of welfare spending in origin and destination countries as main explanatory variables of interest. Our first main result is that welfare attraction effects almost completely vanish when we control for a broad range of explanatory variables suggested by the gravity model (GDP, population size, geographic distance, democracy levels, and common languages). Secondly, migration preferences of low- and high-income groups do not mediate any attraction effects of social spending, as predicted by the WMH. Thirdly, flows between countries with more similar spending levels are more likely than flows between very low and very high spending countries, supporting a status maintenance motive among migrants. In conclusion, we find insufficient evidence to maintain the idea that welfare spending has a meaningful impact on migration flows.
URN:
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/28561-3
URL:
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