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  • 2015-2019  (9)
  • 1960-1964
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (9)
  • Poverty Reduction  (9)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Inequality ; Living Standards ; Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Lines ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This report aims to map poverty and inequality in Sudan and would be representative of the 18 states and 131 localities of Sudan. The poverty mapping technique is based on a small area estimation (SAE) technique developed by the World Bank to derive estimates of geographic poverty and inequality. It combines data from the 2014-15 National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) and the 2008 Population and Housing Census data to build spatially disaggregated poverty maps. Although household surveys usually include measures of income and wealth, they are not representative beyond the state level. Yet, allowing lower levels of disaggregation is important for policy interventions, particularly for countries like Sudan that have state governments, which manage the activities of the state while reporting to the federal government. This study uses a model of household expenditure from a survey data set to estimate household welfare at the lower levels and apply it to the census data set which does not provide information on household income or expenditure. These maps illustrate the information gains provided by SAE, show there is a substantial spatial heterogeneity within the localities, and highlight the small areas most likely to exhibit the highest risk of poverty
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Conflict ; Equity and Development ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The economy is estimated to have contracted by 3.5 percent during FY2017-2018, but a modest recovery is projected for FY2018-2019. Coupled with economic mismanagement, many years of conflict have eroded the productive capacity of South Sudan. Conflict persists across the country despite the peace agreement and is the major driver of the economic collapse. Oil production is expected to be the major driver of growth in the short and medium term. South Sudan remains in debt distress and the external position is weak, with depleted reserves estimated at less than one week of import cover. If the peace agreement is respected by all parties and conflict does not recur, the economy is projected to grow by 1.8 percent during FY2018-2019. However, a less positive outlook could emerge if the peace agreement falters, with growth barely reaching 0.3 percent in the absence of progress in the non-oil sectors
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Education ; Food Security ; Gender ; Incentives ; Inequality ; Labor Market ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Rural Development ; Rural Labor Markets ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Using the most recent household survey data, this paper examines the characteristics of Sudan's labor market as it relates to poverty outcomes. Several important aspects of the labor market are analyzed, including the relationship between labor market indicators and the demographic structure of the population, geographic location, education, and gender. It highlights the significant differences in labor market outcomes depending on the structure and distribution of the population and Sudan's labor market's many challenges across different dimensions, including demography, gender, and geography. The four key messages can be summarized as follows: first, Sudan is at the verge of entering the earl-dividend stage of the demographic transition. Sudan's population, while still very young, is on track to enter into the early-dividend stage of the demographic transition within just a few years, raising the stakes for job creation and investment in human capita. Second, while we find evidence for an increase in employment and labor force participation at the national level, this increase seems to be driven by seasonal labor in agriculture and increasing economic hardship, respectively. In urban areas, however, unemployment increased sharply, especially among youth. And despite the overall increase in employment and labor force participation, Sudan's labor market still underperforms in comparison to its peers. Third, Sudan's labor market is characterized by large gender disparities, including in terms of employment opportunities and pay. Finally, we find no signs of the beginnings of a structural transformation over the time-period author study; agriculture remains the mainstay of a large majority of employed Sudanese. Rather, labor productivity and real wages outside of agriculture declined markedly between 2009 and 2014, especially in sectors with links to the oil economy. The paper offers policy insights to enhance the role of the labor market in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Sudan, key among which are 1) encouraging private sector growth, 2) overcoming gender discrimination in the labor market, 3) investing in agriculture and re-storing price incentives, and 4) further expanding access to quality education
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Environment ; Inequality ; Natural Disasters ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Rainfall ; Resilience
    Abstract: The Sudanese economy has faced several shocks over the years, sometimes resulting in devastating impacts on the economy and the welfare of Sudanese households. The sources of these shocks vary, ranging from weather-related shocks such as droughts and floods to the global financial crisis and commodity price hikes. In the absence of effective social protection programs, exposure of households to frequent shocks lowers their ability to escape poverty, pushing households slightly above the poverty line back into poverty and sliding poor households deeper into poverty. This paper applies this framework to examine the impact of shocks on the welfare of Sudanese households and explore coping strategies typically utilized by households to mitigate the negative effects of shocks. The paper uses the 2009 National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and the 2014-15 National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) to document the main types of shocks that Sudanese households are exposed to and describe the profile of Sudanese households likely to be vulnerable and/or resilient to shocks. To complement this analysis, the paper uses the most recent round of the data collected in 2014/15 (containing information on idiosyncratic shocks) together with data on covariate shocks such as rainfall and conflict obtained from other sources to estimate the impact of shocks on household welfare. Since the impact of shocks on household welfare is likely to be multidimensional, various indicators of household welfare such as consumption, poverty status, assets, dietary quality, and diversity are considered in the paper. Results from the analysis are used to highlight the state of social protection in Sudan and discuss the need for an expansion of the existing system
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Energy ; Energy and Poverty Alleviation ; Energy Policies and Economics ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers To Poor ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This paper investigates the distributional direct welfare impact on households resulting from fuel subsidy removal. Note that this analysis focuses only on the direct distributional impact. A fuller understanding of the impact of fuel subsidies removal involves analyzing the indirect impact as well. Unfortunately, analysis of the distributional effect of fuel subsidies removal or fuel price increases is heavily constrained by the lack of appropriate data in Sudan. We do not have access to the relevant input-output table that describes the number of monetary transfers between sectors of the economy, making it impossible to simulate the indirect effect of fuel price increases on prices in other sectors. Therefore, the estimated impacts in this paper should be considered as the lower bound of the potential impact, as the overall impact will be higher when indirect impacts are factored. The paper is organized as follows. Section two examines the empirical evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy removal. Section three discusses the methodology and data used in this study. Section four presents an analysis of the welfare impact of fuel subsidies removal. Section 5, the conclusion, provides some suggestions on the way forward. The results from this work would inform policy dialogue with the Government of Sudan regarding the overall economic reforms that are being considered for stabilization of the economy
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Social Protection and Labor Discussion Papers
    Keywords: Poverty Assessment ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Assessment ; Social Development ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: As part of the ongoing debate on the modernization of the Bolsa Familia (BF) program, several reform proposals were presented through 2019, including by the Ministry of Citizenship (MoC), Congress and the think tank IPEA, the latter as part of a broader proposal to consolidate various expenditures. This note uses the BraSIM microsimulation model to evaluate the 2019 proposals in the context of Brazil's tax benefit system. All proposals lead to a higher number of beneficiaries, with the poorest families, especially children and youth, benefitting the most. In general, the progressive incidence of the current program would vary little in the MoC and Congress reforms, but is reduced in IPEA's, which includes a universal component. The three proposals have different contributions on poverty-reduction: IPEA's reform is significantly less efficient than the current scenario and other reforms in terms of cost-effectiveness. However, IPEA's proposal most contributes to the reduction of inequality, and is the only one that identifies financing sources through the extinction of more regressive expenditures. Through this comparative analysis, the Note also highlights the main dilemmas about the future of the program, which remain relevant even in the post-COVID-19 reality: the tension between generosity and coverage; the priorization of certain groups for poverty-reduction; reconciling the program's objective of encouraging human capital for children with its role of minimum income guarantee; the risks of eliminating a "basic benefit". While only IPEA's proposal identified financing sources for the program's expansion, the Note reveals additional potential sources of financing for the BF program in the tax benefit system
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Child Health ; Child Mortality ; Early Child and Children's Health ; Education ; Education Finance ; Health Economics and Finance ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Primary Education ; Stunting
    Abstract: Sudan's medium-term national development policy framework is embodied in the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP). The paper was formulated in 2012 in the context of immense political upheaval due to the separation of the North (now Sudan) and South Sudan in 2011, which resulted in substantial loss (about 75 percent) in oil revenue and Sudan's total revenue. To this end, Sudan launched a Five-Year Development Plan (2012-2016) to serve as a growth-oriented strategy with a primary focus on sustainable development and poverty reduction in the medium term. The IPRSP aims to reduce poverty through rapid, sustainable, and shared economic growth. Developing human resources is one of the four broad pillars of the IPRSP, which recognizes the role of investment in human development to build and enhance the population capabilities through education and better health. The Government of Sudan is now preparing the full PRSP that outlines a medium- to long-term plan for poverty reduction. This aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank Group's twin goals to eliminate extreme poverty (with US1.90 dollars per day as the poverty line) and boost shared prosperity by 2030. The paper proceeds as follows. Section two presents the results of selected education outcomes, linking them with poverty. Section three focuses on the link between health outcomes and poverty in Sudan. Section four provides a summary of the main findings and policy options
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Agricultural Sector Economics ; Agriculture ; Consumption ; Food Security ; Inequality ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: With the end of the oil economy in 2011, Sudan's regime of subsidies for wheat and fuel became increasingly unsustainable. The loss of oil revenues in the wake of the secession of South Sudan in 2011 resulted in severe macroeconomic imbalances, including a substantial budget deficit, pressure on the exchange rate, increases in the inflation rate, and the emergence of a system of multiple exchange rates. Despite an increase in the fiscal cost of these subsidies due to downward pressure on the Sudanese Pound (SDG) and except for incremental price hikes for electricity and fuel, both wheat and fuel subsidies remained largely in place until the end of last year. This policy note aims to estimate the level and incidence of welfare effects of increasing staple food prices between October 2017 and July 2018. Combining household-level data from the first round of the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey 2014/15 and monthly wholesale prices collected in up to six major markets throughout the country, this note evaluates the distributional effects of recent price hikes. Future subsidy reforms should pay close attention to typical food price fluctuations over the year: ideally, reforms are implemented shortly after sowing and before the main harvest season. Food prices typically fluctuate substantially in Sudan over the course of the year. Fuel subsidy reforms should be timed to take advantage of this pattern, which would most likely mean that they should be initiated directly after the sowing season and before the beginning of the harvest season so that prices remain stable at this point
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Public Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal Policy ; Inequality ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Evasion ; Tax Law ; Tax Reform ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: This report takes an in-depth look, from a policy perspective, at the trade-offs between increasing tax collection and improving the equity of the fiscal system. As part of this effort, the report places the Peruvian tax system in an international context and considers the key challenges the government is facing in its drive to increase revenue. It also conducts qualitative and quantitative analyses of the impact of taxes and transfers on inequality and on the distribution of income. The report then makes several policy proposals that would increase tax collection without jeopardizing equity, and it then simulates the impacts of these changes on collection and equity. This advice spanned the 2012-2014 period, and included research on several tax policy-related issues, such as legal advice on double-taxation treaties and in-depth analyses of tax exemptions. To keep the focus tight, some of the work is not included in this report. Contributions were originally written in Spanish to provide the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) with timely advice on the subject and were discussed with the counterparts during and immediately after its preparation. As a result of prioritizing this process, two teams focused on different areas of research and were able to contribute to the analytical base behind the ongoing tax reform. The report summarizes the main elements of this process and resulting advice. It comes out at the same time as the finance ministry announces the first set of tax reforms that were informed by this work
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