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  • 1
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    How Inadequate Provision of Public Infrastructure and Services Affects Private Investment (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Reinikka, Ritva How Inadequate Provision of Public Infrastructure and Services Affects Private Investment
    Keywords: Bottlenecks ; Capital Stock ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Employment ; Equipment ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; IRU ; Infrastructure ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment Rate ; Investment Rates ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; M1 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Standard Errors ; Roads and Highways ; Social Protections and Labor ; Statistics ; Tax ; Taxes ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport ; Vdu ; Bottlenecks ; Capital Stock ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Employment ; Equipment ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; IRU ; Infrastructure ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment Rate ; Investment Rates ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Labor Policies ; M1 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Standard Errors ; Roads and Highways ; Social Protections and Labor ; Statistics ; Tax ; Taxes ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Transport ; Vdu
    Abstract: Evidence from Uganda shows that poor public provision of infrastructure services - proxied by an unreliable and inadequate power supply - significantly reduces productive private investment. - Lack of private investment is a serious policy problem in many developing countries, especially in Africa. Despite recent structural reform and stabilization, the investment response to date has been mixed, even among the strongest reformers. The role of poor infrastructure and deficient public services has received little attention in the economic literature, where the effect of public spending and investment on growth is shown to be at best ambiguous. Reinikka and Svensson use unique microeconomic evidence to show the effects of poor infrastructure services on private investment in Uganda. They find that poor public capital, proxied by an unreliable and inadequate power supply, significantly reduces productive private investment. Firms can substitute for inadequate provision of public capital by investing in it themselves. This comes at a cost, however: the installation of less productive capital. These results have clear policy implications. Although macroeconomic reforms and stabilization are necessary conditions for sustained growth and private investment, without an accompanying improvement in the public sector's performance, the private supply response to macroeconomic policy reform is likely to remain limited. This paper - a product of Public Economics and Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study public service delivery and economic growth. The authors may be contacted at rreinikkaworldbank.org or jsvensson@worldbank.org
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  • 2
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    Disinflation and the Supply Side (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Pizzati, Lodovico Disinflation and the Supply Side
    Keywords: Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth ; Aggregate Demand ; Assets ; Capital ; Capital Markets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Elasticity ; Elasticity Of Substitution ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Goods ; Interest ; Investment ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Money ; Open Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Recession ; Stock ; Supply ; Wages ; Wealth
    Abstract: March 2000 - What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs? Agénor and Pizzati study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate. They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible. The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward. In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later, a recession sets in, as documented in various studies. With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment. This paper is a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute. The authors may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org and lpizzati@worldbank.org
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  • 3
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    What Drives Private Saving around the World? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Loayza, Norman What Drives Private Saving around the World?
    Keywords: Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade ; Capital Gains ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demographic ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Disposable Income ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policy ; Housing Lending ; Income ; Inequality ; Inflation Episodes ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pension ; Pension System ; Poverty Reduction ; Prices ; Private Saving ; Private Sector Development ; Pro-Poor Growth ; Public Policies ; Trade
    Abstract: March 2000 - Saving rates vary considerably across countries and over time. Policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates - which rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel, and Servén investigate the policy and nonpolicy factors behind saving disparities, using a large panel data set and an encompassing approach including several relevant determinants of private saving. They extend the literature in several dimensions by: · Using the largest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date. · Using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity and heterogeneity. · Performing robustness checks on changes in estimation procedures, data samples, and model specification. Their main empirical findings: · Private saving rates show considerable inertia (are highly serially correlated even after controlling for other relevant factors). · Private saving rates rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income. So policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates. · Predictions of the life-cycle hypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generally have a negative effect on private saving rates. · The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the finding that inflation - conventionally taken as a summary measure of macroeconomic volatility - has a positive impact on private saving, holding other facts constant. · Fiscal policy is a moderately effective tool for raising national saving. · The direct effects of financial liberalization are largely detrimental to private saving rates. Greater availability of credit reduces the private saving rate; financial depth and higher real interest rates do not increase saving. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the determinants of saving in developing countries. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Saving in the World: Puzzles and Policies (RPO 681-36). The authors may be contacted at nloayzaworldbank.org or lserven@worldbank.org
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  • 4
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    The Buenos Aires Water Concession (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (72 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Alcázar, Lorena The Buenos Aires Water Concession
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Decision Making ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Industry ; Information ; Information Asymmetries ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Interest ; Investment ; Marginal Cost ; Outcomes ; Perverse Incentives ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Regulation ; Revenues ; Supply ; Taking ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water and Industry ; Welfare Effects ; Debt Markets ; Decision Making ; Economics ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Incentives ; Income ; Industry ; Information ; Information Asymmetries ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Interest ; Investment ; Marginal Cost ; Outcomes ; Perverse Incentives ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Productivity ; Regulation ; Revenues ; Supply ; Taking ; Tariffs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water ; Water Conservation ; Water Resources ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions ; Water and Industry ; Welfare Effects
    Abstract: April 2000 - Transparent, rule-based decisionmaking is important to maintaining public trust in regulated infrastructure. The Buenos Aires water and sanitation concession led to remarkable improvements in delivery and coverage of services and to lower prices for consumers. But a poor information base, lack of transparency in regulatory decisions, and the ad hoc nature of executive branch interventions make it difficult to reassure consumers that their welfare is being protected and that the concession is sustainable. The signing of a concession contract for the Buenos Aires water and sanitation system in December 1992 attracted worldwide attention and caused considerable controversy in Argentina. It was one of the world's largest concessions, but the case was also interesting for other reasons. The concession was implemented rapidly, in contrast with slow implementation of privatization in Santiago, for example. And reform generated major improvements in the sector, including wider coverage, better service, more efficient company operations, and reduced waste. Moreover, the winning bid brought an immediate 26.9 percent reduction in water system tariffs. Consumers benefited from the system's expansion and from the immediate drop in real prices, which was only partly reversed by subsequent changes in tariffs and access charges. And these improvements would probably not have occurred under public administration of the system. Still, as Alcázar, Abdala, and Shirley show, information asymmetries, perverse incentives, and weak regulatory institutions could threaten the concession's sustainability. Opportunities for the company to act opportunistically - and the regulator, arbitrarily - exist because of politicized regulation, a poor information base, serious flaws in the concession contract, a lumpy and ad hoc tariff system, and a general lack of transparency in the regulatory process. Because of these circumstances, public confidence in the process has eroded. The Buenos Aires concession shows how important transparent, rule-based decisionmaking is to maintaining public trust in regulated infrastructure. This paper - a product of Regulation and Competition Policy, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze institutional issues in regulated infrastructure. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Institutions, Politics, and Contracts: Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply (RPO 681-87). Mary Shirley may be contacted at mshirleyworldbank.org
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  • 5
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    Perverse Effects of a Ratings-Related Capital Adequacy System (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick Perverse Effects of a Ratings-Related Capital Adequacy System
    Keywords: Bank ; Bank Failure ; Bank Failures ; Banking Supervision ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital ; Capital Adequacy ; Capital Requirement ; Capital Requirements ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposits ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Lending ; Loans ; Private Sector Development ; Projects ; Rating Agencies ; Risk ; Risk Factors ; Systemic Risk ; Bank ; Bank Failure ; Bank Failures ; Banking Supervision ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital ; Capital Adequacy ; Capital Requirement ; Capital Requirements ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposits ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Lending ; Loans ; Private Sector Development ; Projects ; Rating Agencies ; Risk ; Risk Factors ; Systemic Risk
    Abstract: June 2000 - Allowing banks to hold less capital against loans to borrowers who have received a favorable rating by an approved rating agency may result in a rating system that neither reveals risk information about borrowers nor protects the deposit insurance fund. Part of the problem is the very idea of basing portfolio risk evaluation on the sum of individual loan risks, but there are also important incentive issues. It has recently been proposed that banks be allowed to hold less capital against loans to borrowers who have received a favorable rating by an approved rating agency. But a plausible model of rating-agency behavior shows that this strategy could have perverse results, actually increasing the risk of deposit insurance outlays. First, there is an issue of signaling, with low-ability borrowers possibly altering their behavior to secure a lower capital requirement for their borrowing. Second, establishing a regulatory cut-off may actually reduce the amount of risk information made available by raters. Besides, the credibility of rating agencies may not be damaged by neglect of the risk of unusual systemic shocks, although deposit insurers greatest outlays come chiefly at times of systemic crisis. And using agencies' individual ratings is unlikely to be an effective early-warning system for the risk of systemic failure, so use of the ratings could lull policymakers into a false sense of security. It is important to harness market information to improve bank safety (for example, by increasing the role of large, well-informed, but uninsured claimants), but this particular approach could be counterproductive. Relying on ratings could induce borrowers to increase their exposure to systemic risk even if they reduce exposure to specific risk. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the effects of financial sector regulation. The author may be contacted at phonohanworldbank.org
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  • 6
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    Do Depositors Punish Banks for Bad Behavior? : Market Discipline in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (57 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria Do Depositors Punish Banks for Bad Behavior?
    Keywords: Bank ; Bank Deposits ; Bank Risk ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Sector ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposit Insurance Schemes ; Deposits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Guarantees ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Loans ; Market Discipline ; Monetary Policies ; Moral Hazard ; Prudential Regulations ; Savings ; Bank ; Bank Deposits ; Bank Risk ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Sector ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Debt Markets ; Deposit Insurance ; Deposit Insurance Schemes ; Deposits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Guarantees ; Industry ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Loans ; Market Discipline ; Monetary Policies ; Moral Hazard ; Prudential Regulations ; Savings
    Abstract: February 1999 - A study of the banking industries of Argentina, Chile, and Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s finds that across countries and across deposit insurance schemes, market discipline exists even among small insured depositors - who punish risky banks by withdrawing their deposits. Bank fundamentals are at least as important as other factors affecting deposit behavior. Peria and Schmukler examine the banking industries of Argentina, Chile, and Mexico to see if market discipline existed there in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a set of bank panel data, they test for the presence of market discipline by studying whether depositors punish risky banks by withdrawing their deposits. They find that across countries and across deposit insurance schemes, market discipline exists even among small insured depositors-who punish risky banks by withdrawing their deposits. Standardized coefficients and variance decomposition of deposits indicate that bank fundamentals are at least as important as other factors affecting deposits. GMM estimates confirm that the results are robust to the potential endo-geneity of bank fundamentals. This paper-a joint product of Finance, Development Research Group and the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and Carribean Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to study banking issues affecting developing countries. The study was funded by the LAC Regional Studies Program and by the Bank's Research Support Budget under research project Deposit Insurance Design and Use (RPO 682-90). The authors may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org or sschmukler@worldbank.org
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  • 7
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    Resolution of Corporate Distress : Evidence from East Asia's Financial Crisis (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klapper, Leora Resolution of Corporate Distress
    Keywords: Bank ; Bankruptcy ; Bankruptcy Filing ; Bankruptcy Filings ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Cred Creditor ; Creditors ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Expenses ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Loan ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Ownership ; Private Sector Development ; Probability ; Regression Analysis ; Stakeholders ; State University ; Bank ; Bankruptcy ; Bankruptcy Filing ; Bankruptcy Filings ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Cred Creditor ; Creditors ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Earnings ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Expenses ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Distress ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Loan ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Ownership ; Private Sector Development ; Probability ; Regression Analysis ; Stakeholders ; State University
    Abstract: June 1999 - Evidence from East Asia suggests that a firm's ownership relationship with a family or bank provides insurance against the likelihood of bankruptcy during bad times, possibly at the expense of minority shareholders. Bankruptcy is more likely in countries with strong creditor rights and a good judicial system - perhaps because creditors are more likely to force a firm to file for bankruptcy. The widespread financial crisis in East Asia caused large economic shocks, which varied by degree across the region. That crisis provides a unique opportunity for investigating the factors that determine the use of bankruptcy processes in a number of economies. Claessens, Djankov, and Klapper study the use of bankruptcy in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan (China), and Thailand. These economies differ in their institutional frameworks for resolving financial distress, partly because of the different origins of their judicial systems. One difference is the strength of creditor rights, which Claessens, Djankov, and Klapper document. They expect that differences in legal enforcement and judicial efficiency should affect the resolution of financial distress. Using a sample of 4,569 publicly traded East Asian firms, they observe a total of 106 bankruptcies in 1997 and 1998. They find that: · The likelihood of filing for bankruptcy is lower for firms with ownership links to banks and families, controlling for firm and country characteristics. · Filings are more likely in countries with better judicial systems. · Filings are more likely where there are both strong creditor rights and a good judicial system. These results alone do not allow Claessens, Djankov, and Klapper to address whether increased use of bankruptcy is an efficient resolution mechanism. This paper - a product of the Financial Economics Unit, Financial Sector Practice Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study corporate financing and governance mechanisms in emerging markets
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  • 8
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    Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Klein, Michael Money, Politics, and a Future for the International Financial System
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Fixed Exchange Rate ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; International Financial System ; Lending ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Market Discipline ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Prudential Regulation ; Regulatory Framework ; Regulatory Oversight ; Safety Nets ; Settlement
    Abstract: November 1999 - Three approaches to regulatory frameworks for financial systems - and a scenario for development of the world financial system that assumes a market solution. In developing the architecture for a financial system, the challenge is to combine deregulation and safety nets against systemic failure with effective prudential regulation and oversight. Klein analyzes three approaches to choosing an adequate regulatory framework for a financial system. · Those most worried about panic and herd behavior tend to favor relatively extensive controls on financial institutions' activities, including controls on interest rates and on the volume and direction of lending. · Those most concerned about moral hazard advocate abolishing controls and safety nets, seeing the solution in stronger market discipline and reduced powers and discretion for regulators. · Mainstream opinion advocates a mix of measures, to both strengthen market discipline and improve regulatory oversight. The approach a country opts for depends on (1) which monetary and exchange rate regime it chooses, (2) whether it is more concerned about moral hazard or about panic and herd behavior, and (3) how the politics of reform shape its solutions. Klein suggests a scenario for development of the global financial system over the next two or three decades that assumes that the final outcome will resemble the market solution - not because that is the optimal policy choice but because of how political weaknesses will interact with advances in settlement technology. In Klein's scenario, the world moves toward a monetary system in which fixed exchange rate systems or de facto currency competition limit the power of central banks. This limits options for discretionary and open-ended liquidity support to help deal with systemic financial crises. The costs of inflexible exchange rates are moderated by new types of wage contracts, using units of account that are correlated with the shocks a particular industry or kind of contract faces - thus maintaining the positive aspects of monetary systems with flexible nominal exchange rates. Mistrust in monetary authorities and the emergence of private settlement systems lead to a return of asset-backed money as the means of payment. The disciplines on financial systems come to resemble somewhat those of historical free banking systems, with financial institutions requiring high levels of equity and payments systems protected only by limited, fully funded safety nets. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand regulatory issues. The author may be contacted at michael.u.kleinsi.shell.com
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  • 9
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    Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Cohen, Daniel Will the Euro Create a Bonanza for Africa?
    Keywords: Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve ; Banking System ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Capital Flows ; Country Risk ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Capital ; Domestic Capital Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Foreign Debt ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Foreign Direct Investments ; Global Markets ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; International Capital ; International Capital Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Portfolio ; Portfolio Diversification ; Private Sector Development ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserve
    Abstract: At this stage, it is difficult to conclude that the euro will have substantial macroeconomic impact on sub-Saharan Africa, unless launch of the euro becomes the tool of a major policy shift, such as the euroization of the continent - which is currently unlikely. - In considering how the euro will affect Sub-Saharan Africa, Cohen, Kristensen, and Verner examine the transmission channels through which the euro could affect economies in the region. They examine the risks and opportunities the euro presents for Sub-Saharan African countries. They especially examine the effects from the trade channel, through changes in European economic activity and the real exchange rate. Because of the relatively low income elasticity for primary commodities - which is what Sub-Saharan Africa mainly exports - an increase in activity in Europe is considered to have a marginal impact on Africa. Exchange rate regimes and geographical trade patterns point to large differences in exposure to changes in the real exchange rate. Capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa can be affected through portfolio shifts or through changes in foreign direct investment. Changes in competitiveness in Europe are not expected to influence foreign direct investment, so the euro is not expected to affect foreign direct investment significantly. Portfolio diversification could increase greatly. But Sub-Saharan Africa is not expected to realize the increased potential from portfolio diversification because of its severely underdeveloped domestic capital markets. It is vitally important that Sub-Saharan African countries strengthen their financial integration into global markets. How the euro will affect such parts of the financial system as banks and debt and reserve management varies across countries. Generally the effect is expected to be limited. This paper - a product of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to study the effect of the euro on developing countries. The authors may be contacted at nkristensenworldbank.org or dverner@worldbank.org
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  • 10
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    Risk and Efficiency in East Asian Banks (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Laeven, Luc Risk and Efficiency in East Asian Banks
    Keywords: Bank ; Bank Risk ; Banking ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Cred Deposits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Services ; Governance ; Interest ; Lending ; Nonperforming Loans ; Operating Costs ; Principal ; Real Sector ; Risk ; Risk Factors ; Risk Management ; Risk Taking ; Services ; Bank ; Bank Risk ; Banking ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Cred Deposits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Services ; Governance ; Interest ; Lending ; Nonperforming Loans ; Operating Costs ; Principal ; Real Sector ; Risk ; Risk Factors ; Risk Management ; Risk Taking ; Services
    Abstract: Banks restructured after East Asia's crisis of 1997 - most of them family-owned or company-owned and almost never foreign-owned - tended to be heavy risk takers. Most of them had excessive credit growth. - Laeven uses a linear programming technique (data envelopment analysis) to estimate the inefficiencies of banks in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. He applies this technique to the precrisis period 1992-96. Assessing a bank's overall performance requires assessing both efficiency and risk factors, so Laeven also introduces a measure of risk taking. This risk measure helps predict which banks were restructured after the crisis of 1997. Laeven finds that foreign-owned banks took little risk relative to other banks in East Asia, and that family-owned and company-owned banks were among the highest risk takers. Banks restructured after the 1997 crisis had excessive credit growth, were mostly family-owned or company-owned, and were almost never foreign-owned. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study the causes and resolution of financial distress. The author may be contacted at llaevenworldbank.org
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  • 11
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    Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises : Do Resident Firms Have an Informational Advantage? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises
    Keywords: Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt ; Asymmetric Information ; Balance Of Payments ; Balance Of Payments Crises ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Devaluation ; E-Business ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Differentials ; International Cred International Financial Markets ; Investors ; Local Business ; Local Investors ; Mutual Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Sovereign Debt
    Abstract: December 1999 - Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. Kaufmann, Mehrez, and Schmukler investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work. They propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters. They test their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set, the Global Competitiveness Survey. The survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside. They find that local managers do have useful private information. Local managers' responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate, which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials. They find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the Republic of Korea, Russia, and Thailand, but not those in Indonesia and Malaysia. Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates. This paper - a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the roles of transparency and governance. The authors may be contacted at dkaufmannworldbank.org, mehrezg@gunet.georgetown.edu, or sschmukler@worldbank.org
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  • 12
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    How Politics and Institutions Affect Pension Reform in Three Postcommunist Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (80 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Orenstein, A. Mitchell How Politics and Institutions Affect Pension Reform in Three Postcommunist Countries
    Keywords: Bank ; Bank Involvement ; Children and Youth ; Contributions ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Expense ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Investment ; Investment Returns ; Pension ; Pension Accounts ; Pension Reform ; Pension Reforms ; Pension System ; Pensioners ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Pension ; Private Pension Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Purchase ; Retirement ; Social Protections and Labor ; State Pension ; Trade Unions ; Working Life ; Bank ; Bank Involvement ; Children and Youth ; Contributions ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Expense ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Investment ; Investment Returns ; Pension ; Pension Accounts ; Pension Reform ; Pension Reforms ; Pension System ; Pensioners ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Private Pension ; Private Pension Funds ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Purchase ; Retirement ; Social Protections and Labor ; State Pension ; Trade Unions ; Working Life
    Abstract: March 2000 - During reform's three phases - commitment-building, coalition-building, and implementation - there are tradeoffs among inclusiveness (of process), radicalism (of reform), and participation in, and compliance with, the new system. Including more, and more various, veto and proposal actors early in the deliberative process may increase buy-in and compliance when pension reform is implemented, but at the expense of faster and greater change. Orenstein examines the political and institutional processes that produced fundamental pension reform in three postcommunist countries: Hungary, Kazakhstan, and Poland. He tests various hypotheses about the relationship between deliberative process and outcomes through detailed case studies of pension reform. The outcomes of reform were similar: each country implemented a mandatory funded pension system as part of reform, but the extent and configuration of changes differed greatly. Countries with more veto actors - social and institutional actors with an effective veto over reform - engaged in less radical reform, as theory predicted. Poland and Hungary generated less radical change than Kazakhstan, partly because they have more representative political systems, to which more associations, interest groups, and proposal actors have access. Proposal actors shape the reform agenda and influence the positions of key veto actors. Pension reform takes longer in countries with more veto and proposal actors, such as Poland and Hungary. Legacies of policy, the development of civil society, and international organizations also profoundly affect the shape and progress of reform. Orenstein sees pension reform as happening in three phases: commitment-building, coalition-building, and implementation. He presents hypotheses about tradeoffs among inclusiveness (of process), radicalism (of reform), and participation in, and compliance with, the new system. One hypothesis: Including more, and more various, veto and proposal actors early in the deliberative process increases buy-in and compliance when reform is implemented, but at the expense of faster and greater change. Early challenges in implementation in all three countries, but especially in Kazakhstan, suggest the importance of improving buy-in through inclusive deliberative processes, where possible. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the political economy of pension reform. This study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Political Economy of Pension Reform (RPO 682-17). The author may be contacted at morenstmaxwell.syr.edu
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  • 13
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    Designing Direct Subsidies for Water and Sanitation Services Panama : A Case Study (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (40 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Halpern, Jonathan Designing Direct Subsidies for Water and Sanitation Services Panama
    Keywords: Access To Cred Administrative Cost ; Administrative Costs ; Beneficiaries ; Beneficiary ; Check ; Customers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sustainability ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Housing Subsidy ; Interest ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Subsidies ; Subsidization ; Subsidy ; Subsidy Payments ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Total Costs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Subsidies ; Water Subsidy ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Worth ; Access To Cred Administrative Cost ; Administrative Costs ; Beneficiaries ; Beneficiary ; Check ; Customers ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Sustainability ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Housing Subsidy ; Interest ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Population ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Subsidies ; Subsidization ; Subsidy ; Subsidy Payments ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Total Costs ; Town Water Supply and Sanitation ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Urban Water Supply and Sanitation ; Water Subsidies ; Water Subsidy ; Water Supply and Sanitation ; Worth
    Abstract: May 2000 - An alternative to traditional subsidies for water and sanitation services is direct subsidies - funds governments provide to cover part of the water bill for households that meet certain criteria. Issues associated with such a subsidy are analyzed through a case study of Panama. As an alternative to traditional subsidy schemes in utility sectors, direct subsidy programs have several advantages: they are transparent, they are explicit, and they minimize distortions of the behavior of both the utility and the customers. At the same time, defining practical eligibility criteria for direct subsidy schemes is difficult and identifying eligible households may entail substantial administrative costs. Foster, Gomez-Lobo, and Halpern, using a case study from Panama, discuss some of the issues associated with the design of direct subsidy systems for water services. They conclude that: · There is a need to assess - rather than assume - the need for a subsidy. A key test of affordability, and thus of the need for a subsidy, is to compare the cost of the service with some measure of household willingness to pay. · The initial assessment must consider the affordability of connection costs as well as the affordability of the service itself. Connection costs may be prohibitive for poor households with no credit, suggesting a need to focus subsidies on providing access rather than ongoing water consumption. · A key issue in designing a direct subsidy scheme is its targeting properties. Poverty is a complex phenomenon and difficult to measure. Eligibility must therefore be based on easily measurable proxy variables, and good proxies are hard to find. In choosing eligibility criteria for a subsidy, it is essential to verify what proportion of the target group fails to meet the criteria (errors of exclusion) and what proportion of nontarget groups is inadvertently eligible for the benefits (errors of inclusion). · Administrative costs are roughly the same no matter what the level of individual subsidies, so a scheme that pays beneficiaries very little will tend not to be cost-effective. It is important to determine what proportion of total program costs will be absorbed by administrative expenses. · Subsidies should not cover the full cost of the service and should be contingent on beneficiaries paying their share of the bill. Subsidies for consumption above a minimum subsistence level should be avoided. Subsidies should be provided long enough before eligibility is reassessed to avoid poverty trap problems. · The utility or concessionaire can be helpful in identifying eligible candidates because of its superior information on the payment histories of customers. It will also have an incentive to do so, since it has an interest in improving poor payment records. Thought should therefore be given at the design stage to the role of the service provider in the implementation of the subsidy scheme. · The administrative agency's responsibilities, the sources of funding, and the general principles guiding the subsidy system should have a clear legal basis, backed by regulations governing administrative procedures. · To reduce administrative costs and avoid duplication of effort, it would be desirable for a single set of institutional arrangements to be used to determine eligibility for all welfare and subsidy programs in a given jurisdiction, whether subnational or national. This paper - a product of the Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to evaluate and disseminate lessons of experience in designing policies to improve the quality and sustainability of infrastructure services and to enhance access of the poor to these basic services. The authors may be contacted at vfosterworldbank.org or jhalpern@worldbank.org
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  • 14
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    A New Model for Market-Based Regulation of Subnational Borrowing : The Mexican Approach (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Giugale, Marcelo A New Model for Market-Based Regulation of Subnational Borrowing
    Keywords: Bank ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowing ; Capital ; Commercial Banks ; Cred Debt ; Debt Markets ; Decentralization ; Deposits ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Performance ; Governments ; Institutional Development ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Loans ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Risk ; Bank ; Banks ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Borrowing ; Capital ; Commercial Banks ; Cred Debt ; Debt Markets ; Decentralization ; Deposits ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Externalities ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Performance ; Governments ; Institutional Development ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Loans ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Moral Hazard ; Private Sector Development ; Risk
    Abstract: July 2000 - To bring fiscal discipline to state and municipal governments, Mexico's federal government has established a two-pillar framework that explicitly renounces federal bail-outs and establishes a Basel-consistent link between the capital-risk weighting of bank loans to subnational governments and the borrower's credit rating. Whether the framework succeeds will depend partly on market assessments of the government's commitment to enforce bank capital rules and refrain from bailing out defaulting subnational governments. Faced with weak subnational finances that pose a risk to macroeconomic stability, Mexico's federal government in April 2000 established an innovative incentive framework to bring fiscal discipline to state and municipal governments. That framework is based on two pillars: an explicit renunciation of federal bail-outs and a Basel-consistent link between the capital-risk weighting of bank loans to subnational governments and the borrower's credit rating. In theory, this new regulatory arrangement should reduce moral hazard among banks and their state and municipal clients; differentiate interest rates on the basis of the borrowers' creditworthiness; and elicit a strong demand for institutional development at the subnational level. But its success will depend on three factors critical to implementation: · Whether markets find the federal commitment not to bail out defaulting subnational governments credible. · Whether subnational governments have access to financing other than bank loans. · How well bank capital rules are enforced. This paper - a product of the Mexico- Country Department and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the subnational underpinnings of sustainable, national economic framework. The authors may be contacted at mgiugaleworldbank.org, akorobow@worldbank.org, or swebb@worldbank.org
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  • 15
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    Impediments to the Development and Efficiency of Financial Intermediation in Brazil (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Beck, Thorsten Impediments to the Development and Efficiency of Financial Intermediation in Brazil
    Keywords: Accounting ; Accounting Standards ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bond Markets ; Borrowers ; Contract ; Contract Enforcement ; Credit Information ; Credit Information Systems ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforceability ; Enforceability Of Contracts ; Enforcement Of Contracts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Bond ; Private Sector Development ; Regulatory Framework ; Stock ; Stock Markets ; Unsecured Creditors ; Accounting ; Accounting Standards ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bond Markets ; Borrowers ; Contract ; Contract Enforcement ; Credit Information ; Credit Information Systems ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforceability ; Enforceability Of Contracts ; Enforcement Of Contracts ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Institutions ; Financial Literacy ; Interest ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Bond ; Private Sector Development ; Regulatory Framework ; Stock ; Stock Markets ; Unsecured Creditors
    Abstract: June 2000 - To improve on the low level and low efficiency of Brazil's financial intermediation (and hence economic growth), Brazil needs reforms leading to a more efficient judicial sector, better enforcement of contracts, stronger rights for creditors, stronger accounting standards and practices, and a legal and regulatory framework that facilitates the exchange of information about borrowers. Reforms to improve both the level and the efficiency of financial intermediation in Brazil should be high on Brazilian policymakers' agendas, because of the financial sector's importance to economic growth. This means that Brazil must also improve the legal and regulatory environment in which its financial institutions operate. Brazil is weak in important components of such an environment: the rights of secured and unsecured creditors, the enforcement of contracts, and the sharing of credit information among intermediaries. Recent reforms, such as the extension of alienação fiduciaria to housing, the introduction of cédula de crédito bancario, the legal separation of principal and interest, and improvements in credit information systems, are useful steps in strengthening the framework. But more is needed. Reforms that will significantly increase the level and efficiency of financial intermediation and have a positive impact on economic growth include: · A more efficient judicial sector and better enforcement of contracts. · Stronger rights for secured and unsecured creditors. · Stronger accounting standards and practices, to improve the quality of information available about borrowers. · The development of a legal and regulatory framework that facilitates the exchange among financial institutions of both negative and positive information about borrowers. This paper - a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to better understand the link between financial development and economic growth, with application to Brazil. The author may be contacted at tbeckworldbank.org
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  • 16
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    Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Laeven, Luc Does Financial Liberalization Relax Financing Constraints on Firms?
    Keywords: Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets ; Administrative Controls ; Allocation Of Cred Banking Sector ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Barriers To Entry ; Credit Programs ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Deposits ; Developing Countries ; Directed Cred Emerging Economies ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Market ; Financial System ; Household Savings ; Informational Asymmetries ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Investment ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Non Bank Financial Institutions ; Private Sector Development ; Securities ; Securities Markets
    Abstract: October 2000 - Financial liberalization reduces imperfections in financial markets by reducing the agency costs of financial leverage. Small firms gain most from liberalization, because the favoritism of preferential credit directed to large firms tends to disappear under liberalization. Laeven uses panel data on 394 firms in 13 developing countries for the years 1988–98 to learn whether financial liberalization relaxes financing constraints on firms. He finds that liberalization affects small and large firms differently. Small firms are financially constrained before liberalization begins but become less so after liberalization. The financing constraints on large firms, however, are low both before and after liberalization. The initial difference between small and large firms disappears over time. Laeven hypothesizes that financial liberalization has little effect on the financing constraints of large firms because they have better access to preferential directed credit in the period before liberalization.Financial liberalization also reduces imperfections in financial markets, especially the asymmetric information costs of firms’ financial leverage. Countries that liberalize their financial sectors tend to see dramatic improvements in political climate as well. Successful financial liberalization seems to require both the political will and the ability to stop the preferential treatment of well-connected, usually large, firms. This paper—a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to study the benefits and risks of financial liberalization. The author may be contacted at llaevenworldbank.org
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  • 17
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    Approaches to Liberalizing Services (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (100 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Stephenson, M. Sherry Approaches to Liberalizing Services
    Keywords: Barriers ; Commodities ; Common Market ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Developing Economies ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Competition ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreement ; Free Trade Agreements ; Future ; Housing and Human Habitats ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Intangible ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Output ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Share ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Services ; Barriers ; Commodities ; Common Market ; Communities & Human Settlements ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Developing Economies ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Competition ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Agreement ; Free Trade Agreements ; Future ; Housing and Human Habitats ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Intangible ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Law and Development ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Output ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Public Sector Development ; Regional Integration ; Share ; Trade ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Services
    Abstract: May 1999 - Liberalization of services at the subregional level has followed two broad approaches-the GATS model and the NAFTA model-neither of which automatically guarantees the full liberalization of trade in services. The question that participants in integration efforts at both the subregional and the broader regional level must ask is what kind of approach to liberalizing services offers both maximum transparency and the greatest degree of nondiscrimination for service suppliers. Only since completion of the Uruguay Round have developing countries in East Asia and the Western Hemisphere shown interest in liberalizing services. Ambitious efforts are now being made to incorporate services in liberalization objectives of both subregional and regional integration efforts, including in the Asia-Pacific region under APEC and in the Western Hemisphere under the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) process. At the subregional level, member countries of both ASEAN (in East Asia) and MERCOSUR (in Latin America) have chosen to follow the liberalization model set forth in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and to open their services markets gradually and piecemeal. In the Western Hemisphere, Mexico has successfully promoted the NAFTA model of a more comprehensive liberalization of services markets-and several Latin American countries have adopted the same approach. Regionally, APEC has chosen a concerted voluntary approach to liberalizing services markets. Within the Western Hemisphere, participants are defining which approach they will use in the negotiations on services launched as part of the FTAA in April 1998. In all these efforts, a stated desire to promote more efficient services markets is often hindered by reluctance to open services markets rapidly or comprehensively because of historically entrenched protectionism in the sector and ignorance of the regulatory measures that impede trade in services. Presumably it would be easier to liberalize services at the subregional level, among countries at similar stages of development (although liberalization's economic value there might be questioned). Liberalizing services at the broader regional level is a difficult and ambitious goal, given the diversity of countries involved in such efforts. Thus liberalization will probably move more slowly at the regional than at the subregional level-perhaps even more slowly than at the multilateral level. It is possible that the new round of multilateral talks on services scheduled to begin under the WTO in 2000 may well eclipse the recently begun regional efforts. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assist developing countries in the multilateral trade negotiations. The author may be contacted at sstephensonoas.org
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    Fiscal Management in Federal Democracies : Argentina and Brazil (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (43 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Webb, B. Steven Fiscal Management in Federal Democracies
    Keywords: Bailouts ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Creditors ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Domestic Debt ; Emerging Markets ; External Debts ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Decentralization ; Fiscal Deficits ; Inflation ; Interest ; Levy ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Monetary Fund ; Municipal Financial Management ; Private Sector Development ; Public Finances ; Public Sector Deficits ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Spending ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Return ; Revenue ; Tax ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Bailouts ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Creditors ; Debt Markets ; Deficits ; Developing Countries ; Domestic Debt ; Emerging Markets ; External Debts ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Decentralization ; Fiscal Deficits ; Inflation ; Interest ; Levy ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Monetary Fund ; Municipal Financial Management ; Private Sector Development ; Public Finances ; Public Sector Deficits ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Spending ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Return ; Revenue ; Tax ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics
    Abstract: May 1999 - Argentina and Brazil-two of the most decentralized public sectors in Latin America and (along with Colombia and India) among the most decentralized democracies in the developing world-faced similar problems in the 1980s: excessive public deficits and high inflation exacerbated by subnational deficits. In the 1990s, Argentina was more successful at macroeconomic stabilization, partly because it imposed harder budget constraints on the public sector nationally and partly because it had stronger party control of both national legislators and subnational governments. In shifting to decentralized public finances, a country's central government faces certain fiscal management problems. First, during and soon after the transition, unless it reduces spending or increases its own tax resources, the central government tends to have higher deficits as it shifts fiscal resources to subnational governments through transfers, revenue sharing, or delegation of tax bases. Reducing spending is hard not only because cuts are always hard but because subnational governments might not take on expected tasks, leaving the central government with a legal or political obligation to continue spending for certain services. Second, after decentralization, the local or state government faces popular pressure to spend more and tax less, creating the tendency to run deficits. This tendency can be a problem if subnational governments and their creditors expect or rely on bailouts by the central government. Econometric evidence from 32 large industrial and developing countries indicates that higher subnational spending and deficits lead to greater national deficits. Dillinger and Webb investigate how, and how successfully, Argentina and Brazil dealt with these problems in the 1990s. In both countries, subnational governments account for about half of public spending and are vigorous democracies in most (especially the largest) jurisdictions. The return to democracy in the 1980s revived and strengthened long-standing federal practices while weakening macroeconomic performance, resulting in unsustainable fiscal deficits, high inflation, sometimes hyperinflation, and low or negative growth. Occasional stabilization plans failed within a few years. Then Argentina (in 1991) and Brazil (in 1994) introduced successful stabilization plans. National issues were important in preventing and then bringing about macroeconomic stabilization, but so were intergovernmental fiscal relations and the fiscal management of subnational governments. State deficits and federal transfers were often out of control in the 1980s, contributing to national macroeconomic problems. Stabilization programs in the 1990s needed to establish control, and self-control, over subnational spending and borrowing. This paper-a product of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of the LCR regional studies program on fiscal decentralization in Latin America. The authors may be contacted at wdillingerworldbank.org or swebb@worldbank.org
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  • 19
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    Competition Policy, Developing Countries, and the World Trade Organization (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (34 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Competition Policy, Developing Countries, and the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Access to Markets ; Barriers ; Competition ; Competition Policies ; Competition Policy ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Domestic Competition ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Export Markets ; Foreign Competition ; Free Trade ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Interest ; Interests ; International Cooperation ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment Policies ; Jurisdictions ; Knowledge for Development ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Markets and Market Access ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Traditional Market ; World Trade ; Access to Markets ; Barriers ; Competition ; Competition Policies ; Competition Policy ; Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Domestic Competition ; Economic Development ; Economic Theory and Research ; Education ; Emerging Markets ; Export Markets ; Foreign Competition ; Free Trade ; ICT Policy and Strategies ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Interest ; Interests ; International Cooperation ; International Economics & Trade ; Investment ; Investment Policies ; Jurisdictions ; Knowledge for Development ; Labor Policies ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Markets and Market Access ; Monopoly ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade Law ; Trade Policy ; Traditional Market ; World Trade
    Abstract: October 1999 - Developing countries have a great interest in pursuing active domestic competition policy but should do so independent of the World Trade Organization - which they should use to improve market access through further reduction in direct barriers to trade in goods and services. Hoekman and Holmes discuss developing country interests in including competition law disciplines in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Developing countries have a great interest in pursuing active domestic competition policy, they conclude, but should do so independent of the WTO. Given the mercantilist basis of multilateral trade negotiations, the WTO is less likely to be a powerful instrument for encouraging adoption of welfare-enhancing competition rules than it is to be a forum for abolishing cross-border measures. Developing countries should therefore give priority to using the WTO to improve market access - to further reduce direct barriers to trade in goods and services. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze issues that may be the subject of WTO negotiations. The authors may be contacted at bhoekmanworldbank.org or p.holmes@sussex.ac.uk
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  • 20
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    User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (22 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Herrera, Santiago User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries
    Keywords: Arts and Music ; Banking Crises ; Credit Growth ; Culture & Development ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Cred Exchange ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Technology and Distance Learning ; Exchange Rate ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve System ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Geographical Information Systems ; Good ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information Security and Privacy ; Instrument ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Options ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserves ; Science and Technology Development ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences ; Arts and Music ; Banking Crises ; Credit Growth ; Culture & Development ; Currency ; Currency Crises ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Cred Exchange ; Economic Conditions and Volatility ; Economic Theory and Research ; Educational Technology and Distance Learning ; Exchange Rate ; Federal Reserve ; Federal Reserve System ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Literacy ; Geographical Information Systems ; Good ; Inflation ; Inflation Rate ; Information Security and Privacy ; Instrument ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market ; Markets and Market Access ; Options ; Real Exchange Rate ; Reserves ; Science and Technology Development ; Statistical and Mathematical Sciences
    Abstract: Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries. - Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain vulnerable situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, Herrera and Garcia use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and Type II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables - which are widely available and reported with timeliness. Herrera and Garcia tested the models' out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to build tools that policymakers can use to prevent crises. The authors may be contacted at cgarciacoradoworldbank.org or sherrera@worldbank.org
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  • 21
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    How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be? : A Monetary Programming Approach (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Beckerman, Paul How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?
    Keywords: Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks ; Bank Assets ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Exchange Rate ; External Debt ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial System ; Fiscal Defic Future ; Government Borrowing ; Government Defic Inflation ; Instruments ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Levy ; Liabilities ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Prof Reserve ; Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures ; Stocks
    Abstract: March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckermanworldbank.org
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  • 22
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    The Credit Crunch in East Asia : What Can Bank Excess Liquid Assets Tell Us? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Agénor, Pierre-Richard The Credit Crunch in East Asia
    Keywords: Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital ; Bank Cred Bank Lending ; Bank Loans ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Central Bank ; Commercial Banks ; Credit Rationing ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand For Cred Domestic Cred Finance ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Policies ; Future ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Law and Development ; Liquid Assets ; Liquidity ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Fund ; Private Sector Development ; Profits ; Reserves ; Risk Of Default ; Settlement of Investment Disputes ; Working Capital
    Abstract: November 2000 - A two-step approach is used to assess the extent to which the credit crunch in East Asia was supply- or demand-driven. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Agénor, Aizenman, and Hoffmaister propose a two-step approach for assessing the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis-stricken East Asian countries was a supply- or demand-induced phenomenon. The first step involves estimating a demand function for excess liquid assets held by commercial banks. The second step involves establishing dynamic projections for the periods after the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of an “involuntary” accumulation of excess reserves. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Thai firms (presumably small and medium-size ones) faced binding constraints in getting access to credit markets after the crisis. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute—is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the macroeconomic effects of credit market imperfections. Pierre-Richard Agénor may be contacted at pagenorworldbank.org
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  • 23
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    The Regulation of Entry (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (54 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Porta, Rafael The Regulation of Entry
    Keywords: Barriers To Entry ; Economic Theories ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Efficiency ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Equity ; Externalities ; Information ; Interest ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets ; Need ; Outcomes ; Policies ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Regulation ; Regulatory Regimes ; Social Protections and Labor ; Barriers To Entry ; Economic Theories ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economies ; Efficiency ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Equity ; Externalities ; Information ; Interest ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Power ; Markets ; Need ; Outcomes ; Policies ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Regulation ; Regulatory Regimes ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: August 2001 - New data show that countries that regulate the entry of new firms more heavily have greater corruption and larger unofficial economies, but not better quality goods. The evidence supports the view that regulating entry benefits politicians and bureaucrats. Djankov and his coauthors present new data on the regulation of the entry of start-up firms in 85 countries. The data cover the number of procedures, official time, and official costs that a start-up firm must bear before it can operate legally. The official costs of entry are extremely high in most countries. Countries that regulate entry more heavily have greater corruption and larger unofficial economies, but not better quality goods (public or private). Countries with more democratic and limited governments regulate entry more lightly. The evidence is inconsistent with public interest theories of regulation, but supports the public choice view that regulating entry benefits politicians and bureaucrats. This paper—a product of the Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to educate policymakers on the costs of regulation. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "The Regulation of Small Businesses
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  • 24
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    Decentralization and Fiscal Management in Colombia (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (49 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Webb, B. Steven Decentralization and Fiscal Management in Colombia
    Keywords: Bank ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Decentralization ; Decentralization Process ; Deconcentration ; Deficits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Decentralization ; Fiscal Deficits ; Interest ; Intergovernmental Relations ; Laws ; Local Governments ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Municipal Financial Management ; Municipalities ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Revenue ; Risk ; Subnational Governments ; Transfers ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Value ; Bank ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Budget ; Debt ; Debt Markets ; Decentralization ; Decentralization Process ; Deconcentration ; Deficits ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal Decentralization ; Fiscal Deficits ; Interest ; Intergovernmental Relations ; Laws ; Local Governments ; Macroeconomic Stability ; Municipal Financial Management ; Municipalities ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Revenue ; Risk ; Subnational Governments ; Transfers ; Urban Development ; Urban Economics ; Value
    Abstract: May 1999 - Institutional arrangements have helped Colombia manage the fiscal aspects of decentralization, despite the country's political problems. Colombia's political geography contrasts sharply with its economy. Physical characteristics and guerilla war fragment the country geographically, yet it has a long tradition of political centrism and macroeconomic stability. Recently, with political and economic decentralization, there has been some weakening of macroeconomic performance. Dillinger and Webb explore institutional arrangements that have helped Colombia manage the fiscal aspects of decentralization, despite the country's political problems. Fiscal decentralization proceeded rapidly in Colombia. Education, health, and much infrastructure provision have been decentralized to the departmentos and municipios. Decentralization has led to substantial but not overwhelming problems, both in maintaining fiscal balance nationally (as resources are transferred to subnational levels) and in preventing unsustainable deficits by the subnational governments. The problems have arisen because central government interference prevents departments from controlling their costs and because of expectations of debt bailouts. Both are legacies of the earlier pattern of management from the center, and some recent changes-especially about subnational debt-may improve matters. Colombia's traditional political process has had difficulty dealing with problems of decentralization because traditional parties are weak in internal organization and have lost de facto rule over substantial territories. The fiscal problems of subnational government have been contained, however, because subnational governments are relatively weak politically and the central government, for the time being, has been able to enforce restrictions on subnational borrowing. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to examine the macroeconomic consequences of decentralization. The authors may be contacted at wdillingerworldbank.org or swebb@worldbank.org
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  • 25
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    Integrated Financial Supervision : Lessons from Northern European Experience (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (44 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Fleming, Alex Integrated Financial Supervision
    Keywords: Accountability ; Bank ; Bank Of England ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Supervision ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Debt Markets ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Conglomerates ; Financial Crises ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Financial Regulation ; Financial Services ; Financial Stability ; Financial Structure ; Governance ; Insurance ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Private Sector Development ; Safety & Soundness ; Supervisory Agencies ; Supervisory Framework ; Accountability ; Bank ; Bank Of England ; Banking ; Banking Crises ; Banking Supervision ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Debt Markets ; Economies ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Conglomerates ; Financial Crises ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Markets ; Financial Regulation ; Financial Services ; Financial Stability ; Financial Structure ; Governance ; Insurance ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Private Sector Development ; Safety & Soundness ; Supervisory Agencies ; Supervisory Framework
    Abstract: November 1999 - In the past, financial supervision tended to be organized around specialist agencies for the banking, securities, and insurance sectors. In recent years, several countries have moved toward integrating these different supervisory functions in a single agency. Drawing on Northern European experience - where three Scandinavian countries have practiced integrated supervision for the past 10 years - Taylor and Fleming address three policy-related issues associated with the integrated model: · Under what conditions should (or should not) a country consider moving toward an integrated model of financial supervision? Clearly, for a small transition or developing economy, or an economy with a small financial sector, the economies of scale from establishing an integrated agency outweigh the costs of moving to such a model. A strong case can also be made for an integrated approach in a financial sector dominated by banks, with little role for capital markets or a highly integrated financial sector. · How should an integrated agency be structured, organized, and managed? There is no single obviously correct organizational structure, and existing agencies are experimenting with a variety of forms. An institutionally based structure has the virtue of simplicity and can be implemented fairly quickly, but tends to preserve the cultures and identities of the predecessor agencies more than is optimal. Whatever the structure, integrated supervision requires active management to secure the potential benefits that the approach offers. · How should the integration process be implemented? While the decision to move to an integrated agency must be carefully thought through in the context of the country concerned, the more difficult part is implementation, which must be sensitively managed. Once the decision has been made, implementation should take place as quickly as possible. A well-conceived change management process should aim to overcome the cultural barriers associated with the previous fragmented structure. Taylor and Fleming's review of Northern European experience with integration of financial supervision raises a range of questions relevant to developing and transition economies, which they discuss. This paper - a product of the Private and Financial Sectors Development Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to assist transition economies in strengthening the legal and regulatory framework for their financial sectors. The authors may be contacted at mtaylorimf.org or afleming@worldbank.org
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  • 26
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    Is Knowledge Shared within Households? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Ravallion, Martin Is Knowledge Shared within Households?
    Keywords: Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Bank ; Brochure ; Budget ; Conflict of Interest ; Earnings ; Education ; Education for All ; Family Member ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Interest ; Interests ; Knowledge ; Law and Development ; Literacy ; Pamphlets ; Primary Education ; Public Goods ; Unemployment ; Wage ; Welfare ; Access and Equity in Basic Education ; Bank ; Brochure ; Budget ; Conflict of Interest ; Earnings ; Education ; Education for All ; Family Member ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Literacy ; Gender ; Gender and Law ; Household Expenditure ; Income ; Incomes ; Information ; Interest ; Interests ; Knowledge ; Law and Development ; Literacy ; Pamphlets ; Primary Education ; Public Goods ; Unemployment ; Wage ; Welfare
    Abstract: December 1999: Yes - and more efficiently by women than by men, according to this analysis of household survey data for Bangladesh. An illiterate adult earns significantly more in the nonfarm economy when living in a household with at least one literate member. According to theory, a member of a collective-action household may or may not share knowledge with others in that household. Shared income gains from shared knowledge may well be offset by a shift in the balance of power within the family. But do literate members of the household share the benefits of literacy with other members of the household in practice? Using household survey data for Bangladesh, Basu, Narayan, and Ravallion find that education has strong external effects on individual earnings. When a range of personal attributes is held constant, an illiterate adult earns significantly more in the nonfarm economy when living in a household with at least one literate member. That is, a literate person is likely to share some of the benefits of his or her literacy with other members of the household. It is better to be an illiterate in a household where someone is literate than in a household of illiterates only. It is widely noted that a literate mother confers greater benefits on her children than a literate father does. But what about differences between male and female recipients of knowledge? The empirical results suggest that women are more efficient recipients, too. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics, and Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the relationship between literacy and balance of power in the household. This paper was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Intrahousehold Decisionmaking, Literacy, and Child Labor (RPO 683-07). The authors may be contacted at kb40cornell.edu, anarayan@worldbank.org, or mravallion@worldbank.org
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  • 27
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    The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (86 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Peria, Maria The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability
    Keywords: Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables ; Central Banks ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Demand ; Demand For Money ; Deregulation ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Equations ; Exchange ; Exchange Rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Government Bonds ; Inflation ; Interest ; Interest Rates ; Labor Policies ; M2 ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Multipliers ; Prices ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Social Protections and Labor ; Stock ; Stock Prices ; T-Bills ; Variables
    Abstract: March 2000 - Policymakers in countries undergoing banking crises should not worry about the structural stability of money demand functions; the behavior of money demand during crises can be modeled by the same function used during periods of tranquility. But policymakers should be aware that in some instances crises can give rise to variance instability in the price or inflation equations. Martinez Peria empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay. She uses cointegration analysis and error correction modeling to research: · Whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises. · Whether crises bring about structural breaks in the relationship between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, she finds no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability. Nor do the results consistently support the notion that the relationship between monetary indicators and prices undergoes structural breaks during crises. However, although individual coefficients in price equations do not seem to be severely affected by crises, crises can sometimes give rise to variance instability in price or inflation equations. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study banking crises. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Monetary Policy and Monetary Indicators during Banking Crises (RPO 683-24). The author may be contacted at mmartinezperiaworldbank.org
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  • 28
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    How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization : A Cross-Country Review (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (56 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Honohan, Patrick How Interest Rates Changed under Financial Liberalization
    Keywords: Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates ; Asset Prices ; Bank Interest Rates ; Bank Lending ; Bank Spreads ; Borrowers ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Depos Developing Countries ; Developing Country ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Liberalization ; Financial Literacy ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rates ; Lending ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Interest Rates ; Money Market ; Private Sector Development ; Real Interest ; Real Interest Rates ; Treasury ; Treasury Bill ; Treasury Bill Rates
    Abstract: April 2000 - As financial liberalization progressed, the general level of real interest rates increased more in developing countries than it did in industrial countries. Volatility in wholesale interest rates also jumped, often markedly, in most liberalizing countries. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads showed the greatest increase in developing countries, shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Financial liberalization was expected to make interest rates and asset prices more volatile, with distributional consequences such as reduced or relocated rents and increased competition in financial services. Honohan examines available data on money market and bank interest rates for evidence of whether these things happened. He shows that as more and more countries liberalized, the level and dynamic behavior of developing-country interest rates converged to industrial-country norms. In the short term, volatility increased in both real and nominal money market interest rates. Treasury bill rates and bank spreads, evidently the most repressed, showed the greatest increase as liberalization progressed - shifting substantial rents from the public sector and from favored borrowers. Whereas quoted bank spreads in industrial countries contracted somewhat in the late 1990s, spreads in developing countries remained much higher, presumably reflecting both market power and the higher risks of lending in the developing world. There was no clear-cut change in mean rates of inflation, monetary depth, or GDP growth. If anything, there was a small average improvement in inflation, but a decline in monetary depth and economic growth, relative to trends in industrial countries. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to explore optimal policy under financial liberalization. The author may be contacted atphonohanworldbank.org
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    Fiscal Constraints, Collection Costs, and Trade Policies (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Kubota, Keiko Fiscal Constraints, Collection Costs, and Trade Policies
    Keywords: Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Constraints ; Government Revenues ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomic Crises ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Price Stability ; Private Sector Development ; Public Finance ; Public Sector Development ; Return ; Revenue ; Revenues ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Sector ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal Constraints ; Government Revenues ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomic Crises ; Macroeconomic Stabilization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Political Economy ; Price Stability ; Private Sector Development ; Public Finance ; Public Sector Development ; Return ; Revenue ; Revenues ; Tariff ; Tariffs ; Tax ; Tax Law ; Tax Rate ; Taxation and Subsidies ; Taxes ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Trade Sector
    Abstract: June 2000 - Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that when tariffs and export taxes are important sources of revenue for developing countries, and when those countries have narrow tax bases and high tax rates, trade liberalization will come about when the governments diversify their revenue sources through efficiency-enhancing, revenue-increasing tax reform. That free trade allows economies in an ideal world to achieve the greatest possible welfare is one of the few undisputed propositions in economics. In reality, however, free trade is rare. Kubota argues that many developing countries intervene in trade at least partly to raise revenues and that episodes of trade liberalization are often linked to tax reform. She proposes a formal model to explain why developing countries rely disproportionately on tariffs for government revenues, when tax reforms are expected, and under what conditions trade liberalization will take place. The model uses the simple concept of the fixed costs involved in tax collection. When fiscal needs are limited and the infrastructure to monitor, administer, and collect taxes is not well-developed, it is optimal for governments to rely on a handful of easy-to-collect taxes, which generally includes trade taxes. When fiscal needs expand, the excess burden on the tax base grows rapidly, and tax reform becomes necessary. Tax reforms reduce reliance on the existing tax base, often allowing the statutory tax rate to be lowered. This is a form of trade liberalization when it involves the trade sector. Kubota defines trade liberalization in a somewhat unconventional way: only reductions in the rates at which the trade sector is taxed are considered trade liberalization. Tariffication of quotas, normally considered a form of trade liberalization, is treated as tax reform (expanding the tax base). Kubota tests this hypothesis empirically, first through three historic case studies (Bolivia, Jamaica, and Morocco) and then through systematic econometric analysis. She constructs a set of panel data for 38 developing countries for 1980-92, using the statutory tariff rates published by UNCTAD. She uses empirical tests to isolate the cause of trade liberalization. The results support her hypothesis: tariff rates are positively related to fiscal shocks and negatively associated with episodes of tax reform. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the role of trade taxes in government revenues in developing countries. The author may be contacted at kkubotaworldbank.org
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    The Rise, the Fall, and . . . the Emerging Recovery of Project Finance in Transport (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Estache, Antonio The Rise, the Fall, and . . . the Emerging Recovery of Project Finance in Transport
    Keywords: Bank Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bond ; Capital Structures ; Debt Markets ; Debt Servicing ; Emerging Bond Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Performance ; Good ; Infrastructure Finance ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Risk ; Investing ; Market ; Pension ; Pension Assets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Revenues ; Short-Term Debt ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning ; Bank Debt ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Bond ; Capital Structures ; Debt Markets ; Debt Servicing ; Emerging Bond Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Emerging Markets ; Environment ; Environmental Economics and Policies ; Finance ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crises ; Financial Intermediation ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Performance ; Good ; Infrastructure Finance ; Interest ; Interest Rate ; Interest Rate Risk ; Investing ; Market ; Pension ; Pension Assets ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Revenues ; Short-Term Debt ; Transport ; Transport Economics, Policy and Planning
    Abstract: July 2000 - Many transport projects undertaken during the boom period of the 1990s came to a crashing halt in 1997, and conditions in emerging markets worsened in 1998 and 1999. Many projects failed, victim of everything from overoptimistic forecasts to excessive debt to an inability to refinance bridge loans. As available financing dried up, many projects went bankrupt, had to be renegotiated, or were taken over by the government. What have we learned from all this? Recent developments in emerging financial markets have dramatically changed the appetite for (and terms of) transport infrastructure projects. As a result of defaults in Asia and Russia and devaluations in Asia, Brazil, and Russia, political and currency and exchange risk premia have increased dramatically. Given large needs for sovereign debt financing, infrastructure project finance will be seeking guarantees at the same time as governments are issuing primary securities. Large portfolio outflows in emerging market funds mean that the sources of both equity and debt capital that became available in the mid-1990s are drying up for all but the most creditworthy projects. Moreover, real economic effects from financial events have consequences in the transport sector, since transport is a derived demand. Any decline in real economic activity is felt quickly in traffic levels and revenues. Currency devaluations that help spur exports may generate higher volumes for seaports and air cargo activity. These effects vary by sector, especially over the medium to longer term. Declines in real economic activity make matters especially difficult for toll roads, as drivers shift to free alternatives and reduce the number of trips taken. What does all this mean for project finance in transport? Risks have increased. Debt finance costs more. The available tenor of debt instruments has shortened and more equity is required for projects. The sources and availability of equity finance have changed. Project finance efforts have shifted from new projects to the privatization, rehabilitation, and expansion of existing facilities. And a superclass of sponsors, bankers, and investors has emerged. Failures and mistakes in project finance deals in the 1990s were sharp and persistent. But much has been learned about sound project economics, conservative financial structures, comprehensive sensitivity analysis, the effects of macroeconomic factors, and the need for proper incentives and sound institutional and regulatory arrangements. This paper-a product of Governance, Regulation, and Finance, World Bank Institute-is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation. The authors may be contacted at aestacheworldbank.org or jstrong@worldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 31
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    Managers, Investors, and Crises : Mutual Fund Strategies in Emerging Markets (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (42 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Schmukler, Sergio Managers, Investors, and Crises
    Keywords: Budget ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Support ; Fund Managers ; Hedge ; Hedge Funds ; Interest ; Investor ; Investors ; Lending ; Mutual Fund ; Mutual Fund Strategies ; Mutual Funds ; Pension ; Pension Funds ; Portfolio ; Trading ; Warrants ; Budget ; Debt Markets ; Emerging Market ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Crisis ; Financial Support ; Fund Managers ; Hedge ; Hedge Funds ; Interest ; Investor ; Investors ; Lending ; Mutual Fund ; Mutual Fund Strategies ; Mutual Funds ; Pension ; Pension Funds ; Portfolio ; Trading ; Warrants
    Abstract: July 2000 - This study of an important class of investors-U.S. mutual funds-finds that mutual funds do engage in momentum trading (buying winners and selling losers). They also engage in contagion trading strategies (selling assets from one country when asset prices fall in another). Kaminsky, Lyons, and Schmukler address the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. The data set they develop permits analyses of these strategies at the level of individual portfolios. A methodologically novel feature of their analysis: they disentangle the behavior of fund managers from that of investors. For both managers and investors, they strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading. Funds' momentum trading is positive: they systematically buy winners and sell losers. Contemporaneous momentum trading (buying current winners and selling current losers) is stronger during crises, and stronger for fund investors than for fund managers. Lagged momentum trading (buying past winners and selling past losers) is stronger during noncrises, and stronger for fund managers. Investors also engage in contagion trading-selling assets from one country when asset prices fall in another. These findings are based on data about mutual funds that represent only 10 percent of the market capitalization in the countries considered. Were it a larger share of the market, finding counterparties for their trades (the investors who buy when they sell and sell when they buy) would be difficult-and the premise that funds respond to contemporaneous returns rather than causing them would become tenuous. This paper-a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand capital flows to developing countries. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Mutual Fund Investment in Developing Countries. The authors may be contacted at gracielagwu.edu, lyons@haas.berkeley.edu, or sschmukler@worldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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