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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Equity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Interventions ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policy Reforms
    Abstract: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) is facing economic challenges. The country is experiencing a growth slowdown with high levels of public debt. Growing current expenditure and debt service obligations amid sluggish tax revenue led to a widening fiscal deficit in the early 2010s, which remained high into the 2020s despite fiscal consolidation efforts. COVID-19 and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have disrupted human capital investment and are expected to have worsened the incidence of poverty and inequality. Fiscal policy can be an instrument to address these challenges, but its role has been constrained by a precarious fiscal position. This report analyzes the distributive effects of the Lao fiscal system and potential reforms to address current economic challenges. The analysis adopts the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to assess the distributional impact of the Lao fiscal system on household welfare. The methodology disaggregates income to include or exclude fiscal interventions to analyze the impact of the fiscal system and each intervention on poverty and inequality. Fiscal interventions can be classified into three categories according to how they are imposed on households: direct interventions (direct taxes, social security contributions, and cash transfers), indirect interventions (indirect taxes and subsidies), and in-kind interventions (public health and education). The framework assesses how progressive a fiscal system and each fiscal intervention are and measures their impacts on poverty and inequality
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Performance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Expenditure ; Public-Private Partnership ; Revenue Mobilization ; State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
    Abstract: The Lao PDR is facing unprecedented macroeconomic challenges, which jeopardize hard-won development gains. Over the past two decades, the country attracted considerable foreign investment and fostered regional integration, which contributed to a long period of high economic growth. Many human development indicators improved during the period 2000-2019, including child and maternal mortality, school enrolment, income poverty, and gender equity. However, economic growth was predominantly driven by large-scale investments in capital intensive sectors, such as mining and hydropower, which created few jobs and entailed environmental costs. Moreover, many public investments were financed by external debt, gradually jeopardizing debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Long-standing structural vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Since 2021, the national currency has depreciated considerably, and inflation soared. This has had a large negative impact on living standards, with many households struggling to cope. Meanwhile, limited spending on education, health, and social protection is undermining human capital and thus economic growth prospects. Significant debt pressures, especially short-term external liquidity constraints, have pushed the country into debt distress. This Public Finance Review identifies priority reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and boost prosperity. The objective of this review is to assess recent macro-fiscal performance, evaluate emerging fiscal risks, and propose policy reforms to secure fiscal sustainability, restore macroeconomic stability, and promote shared prosperity. This report is comprised of five chapters covering the main aspects of fiscal management: chapter 1 evaluates recent macroeconomic performance while placing fiscal policy in the broader macroeconomic context. Chapter 2 assesses domestic revenue mobilization efforts and scope for reforms to enhance tax collection. Chapter 3 investigates the size and composition of public expenditure, as well as measures to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. Chapter 4 discusses reforms of state-owned enterprises with a view to improving their financial performance, operational management, and corporate governance. Chapter 5 documents the experience with public-private partnerships and provides recommendations to maximize value for money and reduce fiscal risks
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Real Sector
    Abstract: Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Infrastructure Study
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Infrastructure Economics ; Infrastructure Economics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PPP
    Abstract: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can sometimes be perceived as a means for delivering infrastructure for free. A more nuanced but still inexact view is that they are a mechanism to overcome fiscal constraints. Some argue, perhaps rightly, that often governments enter PPP contracts without fully understanding their fiscal implications. These misconceptions lead to several challenges. There is evidence that fiscal sustainability is often overlooked or ignored by countries with PPP programs, with long-term fiscal implications the governments did not understand or manage well. Governments also struggle with perceptions that they are not fully transparent about the real, ultimate costs of PPP projects. This report aims to illustrate how to improve fiscal risk management and treatment of fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities (FCCL) arising from PPP projects, to build better Infrastructure post-COVID-19. It intends to be a resource for World Bank client countries, including low income and fragile economies, to design their fiscal PPP management frameworks in a viable way that helps them develop their PPP programs while maintaining medium-to-long-term fiscal sustainability and resilience. With that in mind, Volume I highlights and contextualizes the main findings from a set of case studies that assessed the PPP fiscal risk management framework in select countries, and synthesizes the observable and qualitative results in managing the impact of crises, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on that, it also explores how this crisis has affected PPP projects and overall PPP programs, and suggests improvements to FCCL management frameworks in order to strengthen the capacity of countries to continue with their PPP programs in a sustainable fiscal manner. Volume II contains the detailed case studies on which Volume I is based
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Health Care ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Revenue Mobilization ; Social Protection ; Spending Trends ; Taxes, Transfers and Equity
    Abstract: Having implemented a substantial fiscal response to COVID-19, Thailand's government now faces the medium-term challenge of reducing elevated deficit and debt levels, and the structural challenge of meeting rising spending needs, including those associated with an aging population, while maintaining fiscal sustainability. In this context, this Public Revenue and Spending Assessment sets out revenue and expenditure choices that will help to ensure a more inclusive and sustainable economy. This will require raising revenue, improving the efficiency of public spending, and ensuring that revenue and spending policy measures support the most vulnerable and are responsive to climate-related challenges. Within this overall framework, the report provides several recommendations to improve the quality of spending in the health, education, and social protection sectors, as well as a detailed assessment of fiscal policies that will contribute to the achievement of climate mitigation and adaptation goals
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other ESW Reports
    Keywords: COVID-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Impacts ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Support ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Policies
    Abstract: More than three years after the first COVID-19 case was discovered in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, it is time to take stock of the lasting effects-and opportunities-of the pandemic and identify which policies may have helped stem the economic losses suffered by households and firms. To do so, this regional report examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households and firms in six countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. This volume examines: (a) the links between impacts on firms and households, in particular through the employment channel, and (b) governments' fiscal responses to the COVID crisis, through transfers, subsidies, and taxes. It identifies and explains changes in household well-being by examining the economic effects of the pandemic on labor markets. As the source of employment and wage income, businesses have a direct role in determining jobs and earnings, and, indirectly, welfare, poverty, and inequality. When faced with a shock, firms responded by adjusting employment, reducing wages, increasing prices, and reducing services provided. All of these channels directly affected households' wellbeing. For this reason, the report focuses on firms in addition to households. Governments responded through various instruments, providing transfers and subsidies and lowering the tax burden to both households and firms
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2109
    Keywords: Capital Spending ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macro-Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Health Spending ; Social Protection ; Universal Health Insurance
    Abstract: Armenia's fiscal performance has improved during the past two decades, supported by reforms. Revenue collection has converged with income and regional peers, overall spending levels have remained prudent, and debt levels remain sustainable. Fiscal policy has been counter-cyclical and progressive but has had a limited impact on economic growth. Spending efficiency is a key area of concern. Expenditure efficiency in areas such as infrastructure, road transport, health, and education are significantly behind the global efficiency frontier. The fiscal implications associated with the policy proposals in the 2021-2026 government program are significant. How can fiscal policy support the implementation of the government's key policy proposals while ensuring the sustainability of public finances This is the main question for this Public Expenditure Review (PER). To answer it, this PER will (i) analyze past fiscal performance; (ii) assess the medium-term fiscal impacts of selected policy proposals that are currently being considered such as increase in pensions, changes to social assistance, increased health expenditures, and increased capital expenditure; and (iii) propose options to improve spending efficiency in select areas to provide options for the government to use the available fiscal space to effectively implement these policy proposals
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; International Trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Tax Reforms ; Transformation
    Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global trade and supply chains, exacerbating the rise in global commodity and food prices. Persistently high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth brings fears of stagflation that could endure for several years. Amidst this environment, the US Federal Reserve and other advanced economy central banks sharply tightened monetary policy to curb inflation. This has translated into tighter external financing conditions and financial stress for some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as capital outflows have intensified. Despite global slowdown, Indonesia has experienced strong growth in 2022 thanks to commodity windfalls and a reopening of the economy. Indonesia's external vulnerability has been low to moderate as strong exports have supported the external balance although tighter global finances have put some pressure on the capital account. Indonesia is projected to have a robust growth over the next three years though with significant downside risks emanating from the global economic environment. To address current macrofiscal policy challenges, the report highlights three policy and institutional areas that may warrant attention going forward. The first is about continuing with the implementation of tax reforms to broaden the tax base and improve compliance of business tax collection. The second is related to public spending where the authorities could over time move towards a rules-based pricing model for energy to contain subsidy pressures. The third is improving targeting and expanding coverage of existing social assistance and social insurance programs. This means filling coverage gaps, developing a system that provides a guaranteed minimum protection across the lifecycle, and strengthening delivery systems
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Civil Service Reform Roadmap ; Conflict and Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Balance ; Fiscal Risk ; Government Revenue Composition ; Macro-Fiscal Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Public Expenditure Review ; Public Wage Bill ; Social Development ; Social Risk Management
    Abstract: Honduras remains one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the Western Hemisphere. Structural exposure to external shocks and natural hazards go hand in hand with high levels of crime, political instability, and a weak institutional and business environment. These problems have undermined the country's competitiveness and economic diversification, propelled emigration, and slowed progress toward raising incomes, reducing poverty, and tackling exclusion. Vulnerability to external shocks, natural hazards, and fiscal risks constitute important development challenges. The compound effect of the pandemic and two hurricanes in 2020 underscored the fragility of economic and poverty gains, and Honduras's exposure to potential reversals. Substantial fiscal risks coupled with insufficient risk management and inefficient and rigid public spending constrain the country's capacity to respond efficiently and effectively to shocks. The crucial challenge faced by Honduran policy makers is to reinforce fiscal resilience to achieve, to protect, and to sustain income and poverty gains. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) considers key fiscal challenges faced by policy makers to strengthen fiscal resilience and sustainability: significant fiscal risks and the high public wage bill
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Employment ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Sector and Social Assistance ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; PER ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Spending ; Social Assistance ; Western Balkans
    Abstract: Kosovo has gained a creditable reputation for prudent macro-fiscal management; yet necessary structural reforms and related fiscal pressures lie ahead. The country's track record includes consistently high output growth rates, prudent fiscal deficits supported by fiscal rules, and one of the lowest public debt levels among peers. The Government was able to successfully weather the COVID-19 crisis and mitigate the impact of the ongoing inflationary crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine thanks to its healthy fiscal accounts and stable financial sectors. At the same time, however, the overlapping external shocks have highlighted the inherent volatility that mirrors Kosovo's structural limitations - especially in health, energy, and education - and accentuates gaps in both human and physical capital. The objective of this Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to help the government identify means for improving the structure and quality of public services, enhance the equity of government spending, and take a holistic view of policies that will affect financing needs over time. To do so, the PER has analyzed fiscal issues that have not been explicitly detailed in, or are in the process of being incorporated into, the medium-term expenditure framework and the economic reform program. The most notable issues include the urgently needed energy investments, the ramifications of the new law on public salaries on the budget, the sustainability of the untargeted social protection system, and possible pathways of the cost of pensions in light of expected changes to eligibility criteria, and the health spending and health financing conundrum. The PER also looks back at past World Bank PER recommendations and their implementation record, in the attempt to shine a light on measures that remain valid and could still be implemented
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Space ; Growth ; Income Inequality ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Reforms
    Abstract: Global economic activity registered resilient growth in early 2023 but is losing momentum. Advanced economies growth slowed less-than-anticipated inearly 2023 as tight labor markets drove wages up, preventing a sharp decline in consumption. However, global growth slowed slightly in Q2 2023, with services growth cooling gradually and manufacturing remaining soft. Global inflation has moderated in recent months, largely reflecting favorable base effects from commodity prices falling below their 2022 peaks, along with abating supply chain pressures. Global trade in services strengthened in 1H 2023 thanks to the easing of mobility restrictions but trade in goods slowed due to weakening global industrial production
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Deficit ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Following the significant volatility that characterized much of 2022, economic conditions in Myanmar have shown tentative signs of stabilization in the first half of 2023. The parallel market exchange rate remained broadly stable between January and May, albeit 27 percent lower against the US dollar than in June 2022 and depreciation pressures appear to have reemerged in recent weeks. In the medium-term, the deep contraction in 2021, the ensuring weak and uneven recovery, and increasing policy distortions will leave the economy permanently scarred. Many of the trends observed at household, firm and industry levels are likely to damage the productive capacity of the economy, in addition to their direct impacts on welfare and inequality. Increased reliance on coping mechanisms such as asset sales and reduced spending on health, education and agricultural inputs will curtail the longer-term earnings capacity of households. There has been little evidence of productivity-enhancing structural transformation in recent years; instead, more highly educated workers have moved into agriculture and away from higher productivity activities. Migration in recent years has been mostly forced, lowering the potential for income and productivity gains with recent migrants across states and regions within Myanmar tending to be worse off across various welfare indicators. And while interventionist measures to promote import substitution and self-sufficiency can generate employment and activity in the short term, in the long run, growth is likely to suffer as resources move toward activities that are less compatible with local factor endowments, and as the scope for productivity gains from specialization and exposure to international competition diminishes. Increased out-migration of more skilled workers and the sharp slowdown of foreign investment inflows will further constrain Myanmar's prospects for development over the longer term
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  • 13
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Energy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Deficit ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Gas ; Nonhydrocarbon ; Oil and Gas ; Oil Price
    Abstract: Algeria's GDP recovered to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, while high oil and gas prices allowed for marked improvements in its external and fiscal balances. The recovery continued during the first half of 2023, albeit at a slower pace, supported by nonhydrocarbon activity and investment. Oil and natural gas prices and exports declined in H1-2023, adding pressure on external and fiscal balances. Inflation remained elevated, reaching 9.7 percent in H1-2023, now driven by fresh food prices, mostly produced domestically. Growth is expected to recover in 2024 and 2025, while the fiscal and external balances would stabilize after an initial drop. The macroeconomic outlook hinges on volatile hydrocarbon prices, and the regional context underscores the reality of the climate risks to which Algeria is also exposed. These risks underscore the importance of sustainably improving macroeconomic balances, while continuing efforts to foster private sector-led investment, growth, and diversification. Diversifying export revenues away from hydrocarbons and attracting foreign investment would improve Algeria's resilience to oil and gas price fluctuations. On the fiscal front, higher spending rigidity contrasts with volatile hydrocarbon revenues, generating significant uncertainty. This underlines the need to raise more tax revenues and strengthen spending efficiency in an equitable way, notably that of public investment. Consistent with the 2021 Government Action Plan, continued implementation of reforms to stimulate private sector to become the engine of sustainable and diversified growth remains essential to the performance and resilience of the Algerian economy
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  • 14
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Federalism ; Fiscal Performance ; Implementation Gaps ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Natural Resources ; Public and Municipal Finance ; Public Financial Management ; Revenue Sharing
    Abstract: The World Bank Nepal Fiscal Federalism Update aims to report annually on the progress of fiscal federalism in Nepal and identify implementation gaps. This first such update reviews the progress on fiscal federalism since the publication of the Federalism Capacity Needs Assessment (FCNA) in 2019
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  • 15
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Debt Management ; Economic Growth ; Financial Economics ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Developments ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Public Investment
    Abstract: Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan's growth exceeded expectations during the first half of 2022. Propelled by a strong rebound in international tourism, the full reopening of the economy, and improving exports, real GDP accelerated to 2.7 percent. However, the rebound in economic activity was only modestly reflected on labor market indicators with unemployment rates declining only gradually. Inflation has reached its highest level since 2018 but remains contained compared to regional peers, due to temporary fuel subsidies and a number of other price control measures introduced in 2022. Yet, the untargeted subsidy support came at a fiscal cost as fiscal consolidation adjustments have slowed down despite good tax performance. On the external front, elevated global commodity prices led to a significant rise in Jordan's import bill, outpacing the effect of the increased merchandise exports and tourism. Moreover, capital and financial inflows did not keep up with the widening current account deficit, resulting in a widening of the balance of payment deficit and a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, due to its substantial reserve buffers, the Central Bank's gross foreign reserves remained at an adequate level, while Jordan continues to retain investors' confidence and access to foreign financial markets. Jordan's economic recovery in 2022 is expected to be driven by a full rebound of the services sector, helped by the full reopening of the economy and a strong rebound in tourism. However, highly volatile global fuel and food prices are impacting both domestic consumption and the trade balance. Risks surrounding Jordan's outlook include a looming global economic downturn, prolongation of the global food and energy crisis, and the impact of higher borrowing costs and widening losses from state-owned water and electricity sectors on debt dynamics. The Special Focus highlights the role of public investment as a driver of growth, with a particular focus on its recent trends, as well as its efficiency and effectiveness. This is particularly relevant given Jordan's constrained fiscal envelope. Public investment spending has been suffering from a steady decline during the past two decades to meet the fiscal consolidation targets, consistent under-execution, large dependency on external aid and lack of budget for operation and maintenance cost. Its efficiency can be maximized by having in place financially realistic long-term strategic planning, transparent project selection and an adoption of a medium-term perspective. Purposefully integrating climate concerns in public investments would also advance the country's achievement of its climate targets
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  • 16
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon-Neutral ; Economic Growth ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Household Incomes ; Housing Finance ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Investment
    Abstract: Economic activity bounced back in Q1 2023 with the removal of mobility restrictions and a surge in spending on services. However, growth momentum has slowed since April, indicating that China's recovery remains fragile and dependent on policy support. China's GDP growth is projected to rise to a 5.6 percent in 2023, led by a rebound in consumer spending. The economic recovery offers an important opportunity for policymakers to refocus their efforts on achieving China's longer-term development objectives. Structural reforms remain crucial to solidify the recovery and achieve the longer-term goals to (i) become a high-income country by 2035 through productivity-led and environmentally sustainable growth; (ii) peak carbon emissions before 2030 and become carbon-neutral by 2060; and (iii) share the gains from economic growth more equally among the population
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  • 17
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: 2193
    Keywords: Current Economic Indicators ; Equity Committment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; GDP Growth By Sector ; Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Recent Economic Developments
    Abstract: Global growth is projected to slow significantly in 2023 as continued monetary tightening constrains the credit supply. Tanzania's economy has performed relatively well despite a challenging external environment. The government recognizes that a dynamic private sector fueled both by domestic and international investment is crucial to increase productivity, accelerate job creation, and support more inclusive and resilient growth. Tanzania has several macroeconomic advantages that could support a successful transition to middle-income status. Tanzania's most urgent reform priorities include measures to improve efficiency and effectiveness of expenditure programs and boost tax-revenue mobilization. The government should assess and regulate budget transfers to state-owned enterprises to ensure their sustainability. An analysis of the implementation capacity of ministries with low expenditure execution rates could inform efforts to improve procurement systems and strengthen monitoring and evaluation. The government should adjust VAT, corporate income tax, and excise tax rates to increase revenue mobilization, and excise taxes on tobacco should be reevaluated to balance revenue and public health objectives. Strengthening taxation on wealthier households is vital to improve the equity of the tax system. Reinforcing the tax administration's auditing capacity will be necessary to boost collection efficiency and enhance distributional equity, and registration thresholds should also be adjusted to broaden the tax base. The Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology could be used to assess the impact of proposed fiscal policy changes on household income, poverty, and inequality
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Economic and Sector Work Reports
    Keywords: Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance ; Governance Indicators ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Croatia's high degree of municipal fragmentation has been consistently recognized as a weakness and one of the main problems of its intergovernmental fiscal system. The report argues that the problem of fragmentation is in essence a problem of capacity. The objective of this report is to review international experiences and lessons in the promotion of local government mergers and municipal associations to inform efforts to advance institutional reform in Croatia and address the problem of low local government capacity. The report is organized into six sections. The first section is introduction, the second section reviews the fragmented territorial administrative structure in Croatia, and the third is devoted to unpacking the concept of local government units (LGU) capacity. The fourth section focuses on relevant international experience related to municipal fragmentation and capacity deficiencies, and the fifth examines incentive measures for Intermunicipal Cooperation (IMC) and the creation of associations or commonwealths. The sixth section lays out policy options and recommendations for Croatia, prioritized along a sequence for implementation
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Policy Notes
    Keywords: Business in Development ; Climate Change Policy and Regulation ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; National Governance ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: Lesotho witnessed poverty reduction prior to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the subsequent shocks, but the pace was slow, and poverty remained widespread. The World Bank Group (WBG)'s partnership with Lesotho is fully aligned with the country's development vision articulated in the second National Strategic Development (NSDP II) and key findings of its 2021 Mid-Term Review. The overall objective of the proposed CPF FY2023-2027 is to support Lesotho in building a sustainable and resilient economy in a post-COVID environment by promoting a private sector driven, export-oriented economy for job creation supported by an enabling, efficient and effective public sector. The CPF consists of three high-level outcomes (HLOs) -increased employment in the private sector, improved human capital outcomes and improved climate resilience with seven objectives under the HLOs. There are two foundational themes (governance and government capacity, and macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability) and three approaches (gender, digitalization, and lagging-region approach) that cut across the CPF. The CPF is scheduled to be finalized with the new government by early 2023
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Public Spending ; Recommendations
    Abstract: The Nigeria Public Finance Review is part of a programmatic effort of fiscal analytics that the World Bank is conducting with the Nigerian government. Ongoing analyses is shared as presentations and technical notes in a continuous dialogue. The emphasis is on establishing a baseline understanding of key fiscal management challenges, and on highlighting reform options to support the government's agenda to strengthen revenue and expenditure policies and programs to tackle Nigeria's key development challenges
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Digital Divide ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy
    Abstract: Myanmar's economy continues to be severely tested by the ongoing impacts of the military coup and the surge in COVID-19 cases in 2021. While some real-time indicators have improved in recent months, they remain consistent with a much lower level of economic activity than prior to the February coup. Reported COVID-19 cases have fallen to low levels (and few reported cases of the Omicron variant as of early January 2022), while real time indicators of mobility, manufacturing activity, and exports are showing signs of recovering. On the other hand, indicators of conflict suggest that the security environment has deteriorated in many parts of Myanmar, including in states and regions which have historically been relatively peaceful. This has affected businesses' operations, logistics, confidence, and appetite to invest. After the sharp decline in incomes and employment observed across the economy, available indicators suggest domestic demand remains very weak. At the same time, supply-side constraints persist and some have worsened in recent months. Access to kyat liquidity, credit, and foreign currency remains severely constrained. A sharp exchange rate depreciation in September 2021 has raised import prices across the economy, including of fuel and other critical inputs to production, increasing transport costs. Electricity outages are a growing concern and internet disruptions continue to reduce the reliability of firms' and households' connectivity and ability to access information and connect with markets (see Part III: Digital Disruptions and Economic Impacts)
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy
    Abstract: The scale and scope of Lebanon's deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of Lebanon's post-civil war political economy. Monetary and financial turmoil along with surging inflation continue to drive crisis conditions. Public finances improved in 2021 as spending collapsed faster than revenue. Lebanon urgently needs to adopt and implement a credible, comprehensive, equitable reform plan if it is to avoid a complete destruction of its social and economic networks and immediately stop irreversible loss of human capital
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  • 23
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Systematic Country Diagnostics
    Keywords: Energy ; Energy Demand ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Diagnostics ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) examines the current constraints and policy priorities for Kosovo to achieve the Twin Goals of eradicating poverty and accelerating shared prosperity. This report follows on the first SCD, completed in 2017, which highlighted fiscal policy, competitiveness, inclusion, and environmental sustainability as priorities for sustainable poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Today, many challenges identified in the 2017 SCD continue to hamper Kosovo's progress and several structural weaknesses could worsen due to the pandemic, climate change, and the energy transition. In this sense, this SCD is conducted as an 'update,' as it largely maintains the conceptual framework in the previous SCD, describes how the structural conditions identified in it have evolved, and proposes a revised set of development priorities for the next five years. Today, many challenges identified in the 2017 SCD continue to hamper Kosovo's progress and several structural weaknesses could worsen due to the pandemic, climate change, and the energy transition. In this sense, this SCD is conducted as an 'update,' as it largely maintains the conceptual framework in the previous SCD, describes how the structural conditions identified in it have evolved, and proposes a revised set of development priorities for the next five years
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Carbon Taxes ; Energy ; Energy Markets ; Enterprise Development and Reform ; Environment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: In the post-pandemic world, EU member states will need to embrace two simultaneous challenges. These will include recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and embracing the ambitions of the European Green Deal, which maps out broad policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030. Compared to the emissions reduction achieved during 1990-2018 by the EU27 countries, the 2018-30 target is 50 percent more ambitious and is to be achieved in a third of the time. Meanwhile, the emissions reduction planned during 2030-50 will be even steeper. The transition in some EU countries will be particularly challenging, given their high energy intensity, significant dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and an increasing and environmentally unfriendly transport fleet. In addition, households will need to be supported in the transition, to avoid a substantial share of the population being adversely affected
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  • 25
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The Public Finance Review (PFR) analyzes Lebanon's public finances over a long horizon, to understand the roots of the fiscal profligacy and its eventual insolvency. To do so, the PFR links three critical elements in three Sections. Section I: Fiscal Policy in the Second Republic; Section II: Macro-Financial Restructuring; Section III: Public Service Non-Delivery. A fourth critical element is geopolitics, which is beyond the scope of the PFR. Taken together, these form critical determinants of the outcomes for any future socio-political-economic re-configuration
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  • 26
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Poverty
    Abstract: Driven by a rebound in tourism, Maldives' economy recovered sharply in 2021, and poverty is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 hit international travel and tourism severely and, thus, caused a 33.5 percent contraction in Maldives' GDP. However,following a successful nationwide government vaccination campaign, tourism has begun to recover strongly in the second half of 2021, with arrivalsreaching 1.3 million in 2021 or about 78 percent of prepandemic levels. As a result, GDP growth is estimated to have bounced back by 31 percent in 2021. All sectors, except for construction which remains sluggish, showed a significant rebound, particularly in the second quarter of 2021 due to the low base effect. The poverty rate, which rose sharply to 11 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is estimated to have fallen to 4 percent in 2021. External imbalances improved along with the economic recovery and rebound in tourism. While vulnerabilities remain, the fiscal and debtposition has likely improved in 2021 due to strong revenue growth. Although the economy is expected to grow strongly in the medium-term, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could impact Maldives' tourism recovery and growth in the near term. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war will depend on the period of interruption and whether tourists from other countries can compensate for the loss
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  • 27
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Corruption ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The speed, reach, and magnitude of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic sent a shockwave around the globe that tested the capacity of Public Finance Management (PFM) systems to support governments' responses to crises. Fiscal transparency was not a foremost priority for decisionmakers during the crisis as they sought to put in place emergency measures with imperfect information and under rapidly changing conditions. This report, which complements existing public budgeting assessments that apply internationally recognized PFM frameworks on a regular basis, presents a comparative analysis focused upon experiences with and lessons about fiscal transparency in three countries in the Western Balkans - Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), North Macedonia and Serbia. It includes examples of good practices that were deployed in various countries within the region and beyond during their response to Covid-19. In doing so, it aims to distil lessons and provide recommendations about what could be done better in preparation for and during future emergency events
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  • 28
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Global economic growth has picked up in 2021 and has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level. The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) has maintained an accommodative monetary stance and other measures to support the recovery, taking advantage of low inflation. The government's continued fiscal expansion is also providing support to the economy. Regional integration offers significant benefits for Rwanda, including greater potential for scale economies, opportunities for learning to export and produce higher-quality goods, and cooperation to improve trade facilitation. Regional trade will be enhanced by boosting trade with non- East African Community (EAC) members. The African continental free trade area (AfCFTA) can boost growth and trade integration. The development of Rwanda as a regional logistics hub, serving as an intermediating node between the East and Central Africa regions offers prospects to increase revenues and generate efficiency gains through the concentration of logistics services. The white paper on logistics and distribution services strategy for Rwanda, prepared with the support of the World Bank, laid out a two-phase strategy for the rollout of Rwanda as regional logistic hub. This involved: (i) improving the efficiency of Rwanda's role as a land-bridge for re-exports to Goma in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); and (ii) establishing a regional logistics hub in Rwanda linked to a primary multi-modal hub at Kisangani and a secondary multi-modal hub at Kindu
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  • 29
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Debt ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Debt ; Public Sector Development ; Unemployment
    Abstract: The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia's slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery
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  • 30
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Access of Poor To Social Services ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Economic Growth ; Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Financial Sector ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inflation ; Job Creation ; Living Standards ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Peacebuilding ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Trade
    Abstract: South Sudan faced significant headwinds in FY2020/21, with the pandemic, floods, and violence flareups affecting economic activities. Consequently, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 percent in FY2020/21. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent as floods affected production and the COVID-19 pandemic delayed new investments to replace exhausted wells. In the agriculture sector, flooding precipitated estimated losses of 38, 000 tons of cereals (4.3% of 2020 production) and 800, 000 livestock according to FAO estimates. The overall cereal deficit was projected to reach 465, 610 metric tons in 2021, equivalent to about 35 percent of the overall food requirement for the year, sustaining high levels of food insecurity. Living conditions continue to be impacted by violence, displacement, and inadequate access to basic services. With improving macroeconomic conditions supported by an ongoing macro-fiscal reform program, a modest growth rebound of 1.2 percent is projected in FY2021/22. Nevertheless, poverty levels are expected to remain exceptionally high. As the economy recovers from multiple shocks, a focus on policy options to stimulate the creation of a sufficient number of quality jobs to absorb a young and expanding labor force should take center stage. Economies that create jobs, particularly for the youth, are generally more stable and can elevate public confidence in the Government's capacity to deliver. In South Sudan, an effective jobs support program would invest in immediate livelihood support, the recovery of modest business activities, and the revival of markets
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  • 31
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Public Expenditure Review
    Keywords: Cash Transfers ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Development and Poverty ; Social Funds and Pensions ; Social Protections and Assistance ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: This Public Expenditure Review (PER) aims at informing government efforts to pursue its commitment to enhancing socioeconomic outcomes through more and better spending on human capital. To achieve this important objective, the Government of Egypt (GoE) aims at creating the fiscal space needed to increase growth-enhancing spending in a way that reflects positively on socioeconomic outcomes. This PER analyzes the adequacy, efficiency, and equity of public spending on the human development sectors. It examines options to create fiscal space by reducing inefficient and wasteful spending within this sector and increasing the impact of existing resources. From an equity perspective, the PER examines how public resources are distributed within the sector, and across income groups and/or geographical regions, and how system-wide reforms can reduce inequality in spending and outcomes. Drawing on a fiscal incidence analysis jointly carried out with the MOF, the distributional impact of potential fiscal measures and other policy changes is simulated to inform the reforms agenda. The first part of the review (Volume I) presents the macro-fiscal context and its constraints. It also presents an analysis of the social protection system in place to mitigate the effects of the challenging macroeconomic environment. The second part of the review (Volume II) focuses on the most difficult challenges facing the core human development sectors, namely health, education and higher education
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  • 32
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Economic Stabilization ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The Moroccan economy staged a strong recovery in 2021. However, Morocco is once again suffering the impact of a string of adverse shocks. The beginning of the agricultural season has been unusually dry, and a poor cereal crop is to be expected for 2022. This coincides with a slowing of the global economy and rising international commodity prices, adverse trends that severely intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ongoing shocks are affecting fiscal and external balances. Albeit somewhat more moderately than in other countries, Morocco is beginning to face intense inflationary pressures. Recent droughts serve as a stark reminder of the exposure of the Moroccan economy to rainfall shocks. Infrastructure development is a necessary but not sufficient condition to cope with water scarcity. Historically, Morocco has relied on massive water storage and irrigation investments to cope with highly variable rainfall patterns. Such investments are more necessary than ever, but international experience suggests that to cope with water scarcity, "engineering solutions" need to be coupled by effective water demand management policies
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  • 33
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Economic and Sector Work Reports
    Keywords: Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Science and Technology Development ; Technology Innovation
    Abstract: The second Economic Update for Cabo Verde focuses on the importance of returning to fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis and on the potential role of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) in strengthening the foundations for a sustainable and inclusive economic recovery. The first chapter discusses the current macroeconomic situation, outlook, and risks the country faces over the medium term. The second chapter provides an overview of key challenges to transform Cabo Verde into a Digital Hub. The report offers a set of actionable policy priorities for a swift return to fiscal and debt sustainability and around the national digital transformation agenda, which include enhancing the ownership of the innovation agenda, strengthening digital foundations, investing in human capital, and mobilizing Diaspora resources to create a private ICT sector
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  • 34
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other Financial Sector Study
    Keywords: Decentralization ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Tax Law ; Taxation and Subsidies
    Abstract: The problems in Croatia's fiscal decentralization system have long been recognized. The fragmented territorial-administrative structure, fiscal decentralization efforts with insufficient fiscal autonomy, inconsistent public service standards, unbalanced sources of revenue, and doubts about the introduction of real estate taxes are just some of the concerns. However, there is often no consensus on the possible ways to address them. Compounding the problem is the fact that the recent and still ongoing tax reform, due to its tax relief element, has created the need to compensate subnational governments for the losses of revenues. The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the significance of these issues as the lockdown measures have had a strong negative impact on the existing revenue sources, such as personal income taxes (PITs), of many local and regional government units (LRGUs). At the same time, it may be that the current crisis has created the preconditions and opportunity needed for the government to finally implement reforms in support of fiscal decentralization and more effective financing of subnational governments, reforms that have long been postponed due to political reasons and a lack of popular support. These reforms include addressing the fragmentation of local governments, providing a clearer and more appropriate assignment of functional responsibilities, improving the fiscal equalization system by including the fiscal expenditure needs component, and introducing a working property tax. All of these ideas have long been debated, but there are many reasons to believe that the time is right for at least some of them to be implemented. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the major challenges and options for reform in several critical areas of Croatia's fiscal decentralization system, including: (i) the vertical structure of government, (ii) expenditure responsibilities, (iii) taxation and revenue autonomy, (iv) intergovernmental transfers, (v) borrowing and debt, and (vi) asset management
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  • 35
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Fiscal Adjustment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: Economic disruption following Russia's invasion of Ukraine arrived during the aftershocks of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, exacerbating inflation, debt, financial conditions, growth prospects, and hardship among the vulnerable, all of which translate to stress on limited fiscal space. The case of Sri Lanka illustrates how fiscal distress can trigger crisis. This note explains the cyclical and direct fiscal impacts of the current economic environment for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and provides recommendations on how to respond. The analysis is synthesized in an integrated framework, complete with an accompanying dashboard tool, which policymakers can use to sort countries by available fiscal space, identify the channels through which fiscal accounts are vulnerable to stress, and benchmark individual countries against comparators. The note closes with policy design principles that balance consideration for fiscal space, inflation, protection for the vulnerable, climate objectives, and growth
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Access To Markets ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Recovery ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Pensions and Retirement Systems ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The report provides recent macroeconomic developments, outlook, and risks that Mongolia faces. The timing of the release of this report is ideal considering that, the Mongolian economy, which was recovering from the COVID-19 on the back of a successful vaccination program and income support, faced new challenges due to tightening of global financing conditions, triggered by a surge in inflation in advanced economies. This development complicates Mongolia's repayment of its large external debt. Mounting instability and heightened risks call for adjustments in macroeconomic policies. The report also includes a special topic on fiscal sustainability of the Mongolian pension scheme. A series of parametric reforms are recommended to improve the financial sustainability of the current pensions system, which relies heavily on budget subsidy. Produced in collaboration with the SPJ team, this discussion was timely considering a forthcoming pension reform to improve Mongolia's long-term fiscal sustainability
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  • 37
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public and Municipal Finance
    Abstract: This Budget brief presents a summary of developments in Myanmar's public finances. This report includes three sections that cover the aggregate fiscal update, a primer on public finance developments in core service ministries, and a longer-term view of fiscal management in Myanmar. The report relies on data obtained from published reports of the Ministry of Planning and Finance, open-source data, and news that was analyzed and cross-checked as part of the monitoring work. Where news reports are referenced, additional efforts were made during the monitoring process to triangulate reports from several reputed news media sources to ensure veracity of the information presented
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Systematic Country Diagnostics
    Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change ; Covid-19 ; Economic Forecasting ; Environment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Sustainability
    Abstract: Haiti's economic and social development continues to be hindered by political instability, corruption, and fragility. This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) Update draws on existing and new analysis, publications, and extensive consultations and ongoing dialogue with public and private sector stakeholders in Haiti. Throughout the discussions, there was broad consensus on the diagnosis of challenges, in particular the country's weak governance, as well as the priorities ahead. The document is structured as follows: Chapter 1 examines trends in poverty and shared prosperity in Haiti; Chapter 2 analyzes growth trends and challenges; Chapter 3 identifies risks to the sustainability of development; and the final chapter takes stock of these elements and identifies priorities ahead, building on those identified in the 2015 SCD
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  • 39
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Economic Forecasting ; Employment and Unemployment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Job Creation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor ; Urban Development
    Abstract: Jordan's economy achieved a relatively strong rebound, registering 2.2 percent growth in 2021. The nascent recovery was led by a broad-based expansion of the services and industrial sectors, while the rebound in the travel and tourism also exceeded expectations. This robust economic recovery was supported by accommodative but prudent monetary and fiscal policy along with a recovery in domestic demand and the gradual reopening of the economy. However, the recovery of some subsectors, particularly contact-intensive services continues to lag behind pre-pandemic level, leading to weak recovery in jobs, especially among the Jordanian youth. Moreover, the underlying improvement in domestic demand amid an unprecedented increase in the global commodity prices has kept the current account deficit elevated for another year. Nonetheless, Jordan ended 2021 on a strong footing as Central Bank's gross foreign reserves remained at a comfortable level, on the back of strong multilateral and bilateral support. Meanwhile, the Central Government resumed its fiscal consolidation path, aided by strong growth in both tax and non-tax revenues. The Jordanian economy is expected to sustain recent momentum during 2022, aided by a full opening of the economy and a return in tourism and travel which is anticipated to boost Jordan's services sector. However, persistent global headwinds, including rising international commodity prices, global supply chain bottlenecks, negative spillovers from Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Fed tapering, pose major downside risks to Jordan's economic outlook. Thus, a private sector driven growth and investment reform agenda needs to be put in place immediately which can help Jordan manage turbulence and uncertainty better
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  • 40
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Economic Development ; Economic Forecasting ; Economic Growth ; Economic Insecurity ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Human Capital ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Per Capita Income
    Abstract: The Special Focus for this issue is on long-term growth, emphasizing the challenges PNG is facing. The chapter identifies the underlying challenges of low and volatile growth in the country and aims at starting a public discussion to better understand the problems and, thus, contribute to finding solutions. The modest headline economic growth in PNG has translated into meager per capita income growth in the past four decades. While the economy expanded by 3.2 percent on average during 1980-2021, per capita GDP recorded an average annual growth rate of only 0.9 percent. The gap in per capita income level compared to peer countries has typically widened. Despite being at a similar level of development in the 1970s and some progress gained in the early 1990s, PNG's income level is diverging away from the EAP region. This calls for a renewed policy focus on boosting economic growth. A new growth strategy would need to address the three interrelated growth challenges that the economy is facing: (i) excessive macroeconomic volatility; (ii) low productivity growth; and (iii) excessive reliance on natural capital and not enough on human and institutional capital
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  • 41
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Digital Divide ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Energy ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Oil and Gas ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Due to disruptions in international trade and tourism triggered by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the Tunisian economy contracted by unprecedented levels during 2020. Fortunately, recent data indicates that the economy stabilized during the first quarter of 2021, with quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) growth no longer in negative territory. In comparison with regional peers, Tunisia experienced a sharper contraction than others, having entered the crisis while already experiencing slow growth, limited fiscal space, and rising debt levels. While the government managed the first phase of the pandemic well from a health standpoint, this early success waned as controls were relaxed later in 2020. A record 13.3 decline in the tradable services sector and a 11.7 percent drop in exports contributed towards the 8.8 percent economic contraction, as weak global demand depressed industrial and tourism exports throughout 2020. As a result, unemployment rose from 14.9 to 17.4 percent, contributing to the wave of protests breaking out around the country on the 10-year anniversary of the Arab Spring. Some of the recent gains made in poverty reduction will be lost because the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increased during 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 on the economy
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  • 42
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: In the years leading to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, Liberia's economic performance was already weak. Since 2014 a series of severe shocks stopped in its track the growth momentum that had been spurred by the Accra Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2003. The economy was buffeted by the devastating Ebola outbreak, a collapse in iron ore and rubber prices, and the drawdown of United Nations peacekeeping forces. Monetary and exchange rate policy remained tight in 2020, with the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) exercising caution in view of uncertainties about the economic impact from Coronavirus (COVID-19). The cash shortages have made headlines and prompted the CBL to provide explanations. Fiscal space can be increased by improving the efficiency of current expenditure. The government needs first and foremost to reduce the very high level of current spending and strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to generate savings for public investments financing. Liberia should remain prudent on external borrowing in its quest to meet the large investment required by the Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD). Finally, Liberia should improve the efficiency of its public investment through better planning, project preparation and management, and better alignment with PAPD priorities
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  • 43
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Inequality ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Services and Transfers To Poor
    Abstract: Following the surge in COVID-19 infections in Q3 2021, Malaysia is gradually emerging from the worst wave of the pandemic. As a result, the Malaysian economy is expected to be on a recovery path next year. In the near-term, it is key to ensure that targeted support measures remain in place. The Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) consists of two parts. Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a selected special topic that is key to Malaysia's medium-term development prospects and to the achievement of shared prosperity
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  • 44
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Banking Sector ; Commodities ; Commodity Prices ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Gender ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy
    Abstract: After several months of low COVID-19 case numbers, Malawi is facing a fourth wave. While an increasing share of the global population is protected by vaccines, only about 6.5 percent of the population is vaccinated in Malawi, increasing the country's vulnerability to the virus. The Government response to the third wave was less stringent than in previous waves and businesses began adapting to COVID-19 restrictions. Thus, overall, it had less of an economic impact than in earlier waves. However, with cases accelerating rapidly in mid-December, Malawi is beginning a fourth wave of infections induced by the Omicron variant, and the Government has modestly tightened restrictions. Economic growth is projected to pick up from 0.8 percent in 2020 to 2.4 percent in 2021, primarily driven by one-time increases in the agricultural sector. With a population growth rate around 3.0 percent, however, this level of economic growth equates to a contraction in per capita output. Favorable weather, as well as increased fertilizer use due to the Affordable Inputs Program (AIP), led to record harvests. While agriculture accounts for the bulk of overall growth, growth in services and industry sectors has improved but remains tepid. With less stringent social distancing policies, demand is improving from low levels. However, the private sector still faces multiple concerns which weigh on performance and investment. These include limited availability of foreign exchange, compulsory liquidation of foreign exchange, inflation on imported items (particularly fuel), perceptions of heavy taxation, limited credit, and cumbersome regulation. Headline inflation has increased to double digits in November and recent price increases have heightened concerns about the cost of living
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  • 45
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Carbon Policy and Trading ; Climate Change ; Economic Growth ; Environment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Green Issues ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy
    Abstract: Russia saw strong growth in 2021, with momentum weakening late in the year. Growth will slow as Russia battles COVID-19 and elevated inflation. Globally, environmental sustainability is becoming central to the economic agenda. The challenge for Russia is to fundamentally transform its economic structure
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  • 46
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; E-Government ; Economic Growth ; Employment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Governance ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Finance
    Abstract: The Egyptian economy continues to show resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the macroeconomic and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with measures to ease monetary conditions, provide selected sectoral support and mobilize external financing. Real GDP growth and foreign income activities started recovering since Q4-FY2020/21. However, global COVID-related challenges and an uneven recovery across the world continue to restrain the rebound. Foreign reserves remain ample, but the widened current account deficit has increased financing requirements. Fiscal consolidation has helped bring down the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio. Yet, fiscal space remains constrained by the interest burden and below-potential revenue-mobilization. Egypt is expected to resume pre-pandemic growth in FY2021/22 as the COVID-situation gradually improves. Further advancement of structural reforms is critical to sustain the recovery, drive productivity growth and generate high-earning job opportunities. The Focus Chapter in this report is dedicated to the topic of government digitalization; a key priority of the country's national structural reform program. Egypt is currently at a relatively elevated level of government digitalization, according to international indices such as the United Nations E-Government Development Index, as well as the newly constructed World Bank GovTech Maturity Index. For the recent digitalization efforts to realize their potential and further enhance governance and public service delivery, continued reforms require focus on: (1) The roll-out of 'end-to-end' digital solutions (whereby digital transformation occurs in every step throughout a given governmental process), ensuring the integration and inter-connectedness (inter-operability) of related government systems, (2) Complementing digital transformation with a continued simplification and streamlining of government processes. (3) Strengthening the foundations of the "Digital Economy" in Egypt is crucial to effectively leverage technologies for a more efficient government, and for large-scale uptake by individuals and businesses. This will require (3-a) Continuous investments in digital infrastructure across the country to ensure uninterrupted availability of essential digital government services and universal access to high quality internet, (3-b) Promotion of digital skills, (3-c) Incentivizing use of digital financial services, and (3-d) Ensuring an overall conducive legal and regulatory framework for the digital transformation of the economy
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Economic Growth ; Employment ; Employment and Unemployment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Labor Markets ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Monetary Policy ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Iran's economy is gradually recovering following a lost decade (2011-2020) of negligible economic growth. Less stringent COVID-19 restrictions, adaptation to the new normal - reflected in a recovery in consumption, and more favorable oil sector conditions have driven a four-quarter rebound after June 2020, albeit from a low base. The rebound was boosted by the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the second half of 2021/22. However, limited accessible foreign exchange reserves, due to ongoing US sanctions, have led to exchange rate volatility and a surge in inflation. The economic rebound has also been predominantly jobless which coupled with high inflation has translated to declining household welfare, especially among the bottom income deciles who were also disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Meanwhile, adverse climate change events such as droughts and record temperatures have led to water shortages and energy blackouts which have brought the socio-economic urgency of these challenges to the fore
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Inflation ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: New shocks hit the Ugandan economy in 2022, just as it was recovering as the COVID-19 pandemic waned and related mobility restrictions were fully removed. Commodity price surges and disruptions to trade and supply chains because of the war in Ukraine worsened a global economy that was dragging under the weight of new waves of COVID-19 in some regions and unwinding of stimulus policies. The outlook for Uganda is now one of slower GDP growth with increased vulnerabilities, including in household incomes and food security. The authorities face the challenge to maintain a delicate balance between policies required to support and sustain a growth acceleration and ensuring stability otherwise the start-stop recovery as shocks evolve, will make it impossible for Uganda to build back better
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  • 49
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Sector Development ; Public Sector Reform ; Public Service Delivery
    Abstract: The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) has made a strong commitment to strengthening public service delivery through three interrelated public sector reform initiatives: Public Financial Management Reform Program (PFMRP), National Program for Public Administration Reform (NPAR), and Decentralization and Deconcentration (D and D) reforms. D and D reforms began at the commune and sangkat (CS) level, the lowest tier of sub-national administrations (SNAs), with the direct election of CS councils in 2002. This study reviews the recent changes in Cambodia's intergovernmental fiscal architecture. It starts with the description of the overall sub-national system, then delves into the challenges of managing different aspects of the reform, such as assigning expenditure responsibilities and financing sources. It also assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the public financial management systems at the sub-national levels. The emphasis is at the district and municipality (DM) level, where more service delivery functions and resources are expected to be transferred. The research is based on an extensive review of government documents and regulatory framework, quantitative data analysis, and fieldwork conducted in March 2020. Drawing on its findings, the study offers policy recommendations on how the country's inter-governmental fiscal architecture can be improved over the short and long-term horizons
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  • 50
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Employment and Unemployment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Inflation ; Labor Market ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Fiscal balances have started to improve as a result of a stronger economic performance, but it will take further effort to replenish buffers. The growth recovery is contributing to buoyant revenue collection across the region, particularly in value-added tax collections, as domestic consumption strengthens. Similarly, a leveling off of public spending in 2021 after the countercyclical surge of 2020 is helping on the expenditure side. As a result, all countries except Bosnia and Herzegovina expect to see a narrower fiscal deficit in 2021, with the average deficit reduced by 2.7 percent of GDP year-on-year. However, the deficits across all economies of the Western Balkans are still above pre-pandemic trends, and the legacy of the pandemic is a stock of public debt that has now reached historic highs in all countries except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As the recovery from COVID-19 takes hold, greater efforts will be needed to mobilize and diversify sources of revenue and to streamline expenditure programs, which in turn would help address fiscal vulnerabilities that have arisen during the crisis. In line with global conditions, inflationary pressures in the Western Balkans are on an upward trajectory. Average inflation is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2021 from 0.9 percent in 2020. On the external side, strengthening demand in advanced economies is driving commodity prices upward and putting pressure on COVID-19-strained logistics networks and global value chains. Similarly, the faster-than-expected recovery in domestic consumption across the region has placed upward pressure on domestic costs, particularly in labor markets during the summer tourism season
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  • 51
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Access of Poor to Social Services ; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Public Finance
    Abstract: The twin shocks of the pa ...
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Business Environment ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Economic Recovery ; Environment ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Resilience ; Tourism and Ecotourism
    Abstract: The pandemic severely disrupted economic activity in Tanzania, and the World Bank's latest firm-level data suggest that the situation had only modestly improved by the end of 2020. New data sources show that COVID-19 continues to weigh heavily on employment and income. Data for the first quarter of 2021 suggest that recovery remains fragile and uneven across sectors, but economic activity could accelerate in the second half of 2021. The tourism-dependent economy of Zanzibar has been particularly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Tanzania's macroeconomic framework remains sound, with low inflation and moderate external and fiscal vulnerabilities
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  • 53
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Economic Updates and Modeling
    Keywords: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies ; Business Environment ; Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Disease Control and Prevention ; Economic Diversification ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: The objective of this report is to provide an update to the Government of Cabo Verde, think-tanks and researchers, and the public on the state of the Cabo Verde economy and its outlook, together with the structural reforms required to strengthen the foundations for private sector-led recovery from the COVID-19 crises. The report begins with a chapter on recent economic developments, the medium-term outlook, and risks. It includes sections on growth, fiscal policy, public debt, the external sector, monetary developments, and inflation. The second chapter stresses the importance of improving the investment climate to leverage the role of the private sector for an inclusive economic recovery. It provides an overview of key challenges and actionable policy priorities around foreign direct investment, the business environment, and competition
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